THE WEEK AHEAD: Health care, Sotomayor vote, Obama's birthday, Hillary goes to Africa, Summers on Meet the Press... and birther invades the manor.

For our mailbox, submit your questions for next week in the comments section below. We might pick yours.

From NBC's Pete Williams

One of the U.S. Attorneys fired by former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales is making a comeback, nominated today to return to his old job.

President Obama has nominated Daniel Bogden to be the top federal prosecutor in Nevada.  Bodgen was the US attorney there in the George W. Bush administration for five years until he was fired in December 2006, one of nine who were forced out. 

Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada had pushed for the nomination. His spokesman has said it would help correct a past wrong.

From NBC's Mark Murray
In our First Thoughts section, we've described the political focus group that one of us attended. Here's a more complete story on MSNBC.com on the observations from it.

Video: Atlantic Media's Ron Brownstein talks about the public's support of health care reform and President Barack Obama according to the latest NBC News/WSJ poll.

TOWSON, Md. - The past wave of public polling, including Wednesday's NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, hasn't been terrific news for the Obama White House.

The president's job-approval numbers have declined, although they remain above 50 percent. His standing on health care has dropped. And Republicans now find themselves, at least in the NBC/Journal survey, with an advantage over Democrats in which party would do a better job reducing the deficit — the first time the GOP has led on this question in 12 years.

But according to Peter D. Hart, the pollster who conducts the NBC/Journal survey with Republican Bill McInturff, poll numbers don't always tell the entire story.

That's why Hart held a focus group Wednesday in the Baltimore area with 12 self-described independents to evaluate the first six months of Obama's presidency.

Seven of these independents voted for Obama in last November's presidential contest, four voted for Republican John McCain and one voted for Ralph Nader. All the participants were white men and women, except for one African-American man.

While a few of them expressed negative opinions about Obama — saying they were "worried" or "afraid" — those who voted for him remained mostly supportive. And even half of the McCain voters said they were pulling for the president.

From NBC's Mark Murray
After her resignation from office, a plurality of Alaskans now have a negative view of Sarah Palin, according to a Hays Research Group poll conducted July 29-30. (Hat tip: Political Wire.)

In the poll, 48% see her negatively, versus 47% who view her positively.

In May 2008 -- before Palin was selected as John McCain's running mate -- the same Hays Research poll had her positive rating at 86%, and in May 2009 it dropped to 54%. Now it's 47%.

The new Hays poll was taken of 400 Alaskans, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.9 percentage points.

From NBC's Luke Russert

By a 316-109 vote, the House just passed an additional $2 billion for the "Cash for Clunkers" program.

From NBC's Mark Murray
As the House Energy and Commerce Committee today tries to vote out its health-care bill, liberal MoveOn has issued a threat to conservative Blue Dogs on the committee: If you vote against the bill, we'll run a radio ad against you.

The deal that was cut earlier this week between House Energy and Commerce Chairman Henry Waxman and the Blue Dogs included four of the committee's seven Blue Dogs.

Here's a script of the MoveOn radio ad...

AD SCRIPT
Female VO
Today in [STATE], a patient lost insurance coverage for medical care she needs...

Male VO
Hospital bills will eat up another families' savings…

Female VO
and a small business owner is worried about affording health benefits for his employees.

Male VO
But when Congressman [XXX] recently had a chance to help fix our health care crisis, he voted no.

Instead of helping [STATE] families get more affordable, quality health care choices, Congressman [XXXX] sided with the special interests and insurance companies

Female VO
If you believe it's time for quality health care every American can afford, call Congressman XXXX at 202-XXX-XXXX and ask him why he doesn't.

Call XXX-XXX-XXXX and tell him [STATE] families can't afford to wait for real health care reform any longer.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier today, we clipped a piece from The Hill that quoted Senate Finance Committee Max Baucus (D) -- whose work on health care so far has frustrated some liberal Democrats -- saying he had "no idea" whether he'll vote for Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor.

"I haven't paid any attention and I haven't announced," he told the Capitol Hill publication. "I've been so busy with health care. It's under consideration. I'll certainly know when I vote, but right now I can't tell you."

Well, he's now telling us -- he's voting for her.

"I have long said that to be a Supreme Court Justice a person must meet three main criteria: personal integrity, professional competence, and a view of important issues that is within the mainstream of contemporary judicial thought," Baucus said in a statement. "After personally meeting Judge Sotomayor, thoroughly analyzing her judicial record, and reviewing her nomination hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Judge Sotomayor unquestionably meets each of these criteria. Thus, I am proud to support her nomination and will vote to confirm her as a Justice to the United States Supreme Court."

From NBC's Mark Murray
First Read has confirmed a report by the Hartford Courant that Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd

(D), who is up for re-election next year, has been diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer.
According to a source close to Dodd, however, "It will have no effect on his re-election plans." The source also says that the prostate cancer was caught early and he will be fine.

Dodd will have surgery in August, the Courant reports.

The Connecticut senator holds a press conference at 2:00 pm ET.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira, Kelly O'Donnell and Carl Sears
It's a race against time today for the House. They're set to go off on their way for recess once the gavel comes down at close of business, but they want to send the "Cash for Clunkers" program another $2 billion before they go.

Procedurally, they will need to get Republicans to go along, however. Early indications are that it might be possible, but conservatives are already on the record as opposing more money.

Video: Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., discuses the House's plans to pass $2 billion to keep the "Cash for Clunkers" program running. Just a week after taking effect, the program has already run through the $1 billion allocated to it.

Today, White House Auto Czar Brian Dees was up on the Hill for a closed-door meeting of the Michigan delegation, where he gave assurances that the program would not be suspended and indicated that he wants the dealers to continue to submit applications for the credit.

The plan is to "reprogram" the money from a a renewable energy loan guarantee program in the stimulus that has funds yet to be used. The money would eventually be replenished, according to a House leadership aide.

We just saw Debbie Stabenow on MSNBC saying that she wants $4 billion more. The trouble with that is that once the House votes for $2 billion and leaves town, that's it. There's no changing it. The Senate is here for one more week and can take it up after this weekend.

Hill sources say at the Democratic caucus meeting this morning, House Majority leader Steny Hoyer told members, "We are working to get a unanimous consent vote to bring up 'Cash for Clunkers' today ... with $2 billion transferred from Recovery funds."  (That is the stimulus money.) 

If passed, sources say, the Senate could take it up next week in the final days before recess. Specifically aides say the "Clunker" program would be refueled with funds from what's known as "Title 17 renewable energy loan guarantees."  

The House would then work to replenish those dollars which advisors say have  "have been slow to move out." House leaders say, "Clunkers is a more urgent priority."

Senior Obama adviser David Axelrod, while walking past Capitol Hill stakeout, responded to question about the program. "We're working that through," he said. "The program is going to continue."

From NBC's Carl Sears and Kelly O'Donnell
Michigan Sens. Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow say the "Cash for Clunkers" program is an overwhelming success -- that the program is ongoing -- and they're hoping to find more money to extend the program.

"Go in, buy cars, hopefully American cars, that qualify until further notice," Levin urged at a Capitol Hill news conference. "This is the best example of a stimulus program that is clearly working."

Stabenow added, "The evidence is extremely strong that this works. People are buying autos, people are generating revenue for the economy and creating demand, so people can go back to work."

Video: The government's billion-dollar "cash for clunkers" program seems to be low on money as car shoppers flock to take advantage of the rebates. CNBC's Erin Burnett reports.

There is a House bill being introduced today that would add $2 billion to the program ($1 billion has already been committed). If the House passes the bill, Levin said the Senate could vote a bill next week.

Levin said he has been "assured by the White House that consumers can continue to buy cars under the program." He released the following written statement:

"The cash for clunkers program has proven hugely successful in its first week. We have been told by the White House that people can keep buying cars under the program until further notice. We don't know how long it will last, so people should go to their car dealers now if they want to take advantage of the program. We're also going to seek additional funding to hopefully make the program last longer."

But not everyone is in favor. Texas Republican Jeb Hensarling, a senior member of the House Budget Committee, is opposed to the House considering legislation to add more money:

"Cash for Clunkers is another example of the government picking winners and losers and enshrines us as a bailout nation. Almost everyone is hurting in this economy, and sadly for many workers across East Texas and America, Pilgrim's Pride, one of the largest poultry producers in the country, recently had to file for bankruptcy. Where's their 'Cash for Cluckers' program? You cannot bailout, borrow and spend your way to prosperity. We now have highest unemployment rate in a quarter of a century. The bailout mania approach to economic recovery is not working."

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Scott Foster
Administration and Capitol Hill sources tell NBC News that efforts are underway to protect the CARS program also known as "Cash for Clunkers."

Although key members of Congress were notified by the Secretary of Transportation Thursday that the auto purchase incentive program would run out of money at midnight, sources say "Administration and Congressional officials are working to keep it up and running."

Video: The Obama administration is reviewing its 'cash for clunkers' program. CNBC's Phil LeBeau reports.

The program has exhausted its authorized funding of nearly $1 billion in less than a week, but officials say "it is not suspended."

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs today said the program is "up and continuing to run," adding that the plan is available for car buyers this weekend.

He said the administration is working to extend the program with more funding. "OMB and DOT and the economic team are working with bipartisan leaders to com up with more funding," Gibbs said. He repeatedly emphasized the White House believes the program is "working well."

From NBC's Mark Murray
If this isn't the most striking example of the sharp divide between the Republican base and South versus the rest of the country, I don't know what is.

Video: Rachel Maddow wraps up the Birther conspiracy.

According to a Research 2000/DailyKos poll, eight in 10 Americans believe President Obama was born in the United States. But among Republicans, 28% of them say he WASN'T born in the country and another 30% say they're not sure. (By comparison, 93% of Democrats and 83% of independents say Obama was born in the U.S.A.)

Also, 23% of Southerners don't believe he was born here, and an extra 30% aren't sure. (On the other hand, 93% of those living in the Northeast, 90% from the Midwest, and 87% from the West believe he was born in this country.)

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Here come the ads! As the House begins its month-long August recess, here come the ads on health care. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has announced it's launching an advertising and grassroots offensive on health care targeted at about two dozen House Republicans. Here's a sample of one radio ad: "Health care bills -- every year, the cost goes higher," an announcer says, "making it harder to make ends meet. But year after year, Congressman Charlie Dent (PA) opposed reforms to make health care more affordable. Congressman Dent's gotten nearly $75,000 from the insurance industry while we've gotten stuck with runaway health-care costs. And what do the insurance companies get? Record profits. Call Congressman Dent. Tell him not to side with insurance companies … and start supporting real health care reform." We already know the RNC is up in certain districts, and MoveOn is on the air. The question is, of course: When does the insurance industry jump in, and where?

Video: Sen. Orin Hatch, R-Utah, talks about what's really wrong with America's health care system and why a public option will cost too much and result in the rationing of health care.

*** Mob rule? With the House embarking on its recess, Politico asks this question: Just how unruly will the congressional town halls be? "On the eve of the August recess, members are reporting meetings that have gone terribly awry, marked by angry, sign-carrying mobs and disruptive behavior. In at least one case, a congressman [Dem. Tim Bishop] has stopped holding town hall events because the situation has spiraled so far out of control." Bishop's "decision came on the heels of a June 22 event he held in Setauket, N.Y., in which protesters dominated the meeting by shouting criticisms at the congressman for his positions on energy policy, health care and the bailout of the auto industry. Within an hour of the disruption, police were called in to escort the 59-year-old Democrat — who has held more than 100 town hall meetings since he was elected in 2002 — to his car safely." The angry folks live in both ideological neighborhoods and get emboldened by folks on the internet, radio, and TV. Maybe lawmakers ought to go with the tele-town hall approach, where constituents get asked if they have a question an hour before. The planned stuff only serves as a target for groups to hijack these events. *** CORRECTION *** A Bishop spokesman emails First Read that Politico's story is wrong; Bishop ISN'T ending his town halls. "Congressman Bishop held a public forum with hundreds of seniors earlier this month, a teletownhall with 3500 constituents yesterday, and has town halls, public events and community office hours scheduled for August."

*** Are things getting better? Breaking news from the AP: "The economy dips at a 1 percent pace in the spring, strong sign recession is winding down." But again, the technical end of the recession vs. the actual FEEL for the public is the challenge for the White House.

*** The haves and have-nots: While much attention (and deservedly so) was given to Obama's declining numbers on health care, our NBC/WSJ poll found a clear split between those who have private health insurance and those who don't. Americans who have private insurance disapprove of Obama's job on health care by a 51%-38%. But those who lack insurance approve of his job, 52%-29%. Similarly, those who don't have insurance are much more likely to think Obama's health-care plan is a good idea, while those who have it are more likely to think it's a bad idea. Of course, the folks without insurance are a very small minority of the country. And now the focus of the White House appears exclusively on the insurance industry. This might be better politics as it's something both individuals and businesses might agree on.

*** Still backing Bush?

Here's another interesting number from our poll: 56% said they approved of the reported Bush administration plan to send CIA agents overseas to assassinate senior members of Al Qaeda. When you add that finding to last month's NBC/WSJ result that 52% oppose the closing of the Guantanamo Bay prison, Republican pollster Bill McInturff observed that still 50%-plus of the American public still back some of the Bush war-on-terror policies.

*** Focus on this: As we mentioned yesterday, one of us attended a focus group of 12 self-described independents that Democratic pollster Peter Hart conducted on Wednesday night in Towson, MD, which is just outside of Baltimore. Seven of these independents voted for Obama last November, four voted for McCain, and one voted for Nader. While almost all of the participants were down on the current state of the nation and other American politicians, many of them -- including some who voted for McCain -- had positive things to say about Obama or were hopeful about his presidency. Asked about her opinion about Obama after his first six months in office, Marsha, 59, a McCain voter, responded, "Just hopeful… I just see what's on his plate." Hart observed afterward, "Don't get fooled by the [poll] numbers alone. There is something strong there" regarding attitudes about Obama.

Video: Former Clinton Press Secretary Dee Dee Myers and former Press Secretary to Newt Gingrich, Tony Blankley, discuss why President Obama is having such a difficult time selling his health care plan to Congress and the American people.

*** I feel the need … the need for speed (or not): In the focus group, perhaps the biggest concern about Obama was the speed at which he is moving. "I'm very worried about the speed," said Jennifer, 48, another McCain voter. There also was concern about Obama's strength and backbone. When Hart asked the participants to fill in the blank to the phrase "Obama's spine is made of …," some of the McCain voters responded with "plastic" and "sand." Those who voted for Obama said "steel" and "metal." This also was interesting: Despite the C.W. that Obama is overexposing himself, many of participants said they liked his press conferences and his town halls. And another thing: Many of the participants referred to Obama as "Barack," which Hart found interesting, saying it suggested a comfort and ease with the president.

*** Word association time: Hart also played a word association game with the 12 independents in attendance. On Obama: "scary," "worried," "brilliant," "idealistic," "afraid," "busy," "straightforward." On Rush Limbaugh: "mouthy," "I don't like him," "too outspoken," "entertaining." On Hillary Clinton: "smart," "intelligent," "relentless," "great," "energetic." On John McCain: "over the hill," "disappointing," "fighter," "strong-willed," "still trying." On Joe Biden: "hopeful," "embarrassing," "nice-looking," "useless." On Nancy Pelosi: "pushy," "strong-willed," "disrespectful," "self-centered," "I like her," "disrespectful," "strong-willed," "sneaky." On Sarah Palin: "If I wanted a stripper for president… She is not real bright," "future," "I'm glad she resigned," "average," "idiot," "nutty," "go away," "she has a good speaking voice," "celebrity," "comical." On Michelle Obama: "beautiful," "educated," "great role model," "improved," "good role model," "role model." On the Democratic Party: "divided," "splitting." And on the GOP: "a long way to go," "lacking leaders," "cronyism," "too conservative," "not tackling the issues."

*** That's not my name! Finally, during the focus group, no one knew who Mitch McConnell was, although someone did ask, "Is he a senator?" Only two of the participants knew who Harry Reid was. When asked who they did NOT want to sit next to on a long flight, six of the 12 said Limbaugh, four said Pelosi, and two said Palin. And when asked who they WOULD like to sit next to, eight said Obama, two said McCain, one said Hillary, and one said Rush.

*** Another Palin scheduling snafu: Who else saw this coming? According to NBC's Norah O'Donnell, ex-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is NOT going to attend that speaking event in California next month. "As repeatedly stated to several in the media over the last week, former Gov. Sarah Palin is not committed to attend the Simi Valley Republican Women's event at the Reagan Library and in fact is not attending the event," Palin spokeswoman Meg Stapleton told O'Donnell. "Neither the governor's state staff nor SarahPAC has ever committed to attending this event or speaking at this event, and even requested that the governor's name be removed from the invitation several weeks ago. The governor has other work and commitments to take care of at that time. She looks forward to visiting her friends in California soon." This cancellation, of course, comes after a similar "she will attend, now she won't" situation played out for last spring's NRCC/NRSC dinner.

*** The war in Afghanistan: Are things falling apart in Afghanistan? Perhaps not, but there is HARDLY any good news coming from this war zone right now. July saw the highest number of U.S. casualties there. And here's this AP story "U.S. agencies handling reconstruction work in Afghanistan lack direction and communication, problems that risk wasting U.S. tax dollars, says the special inspector general overseeing tens of billions of dollars worth of projects." A word of warning to the administration: When we did our latest NBC/WSJ, we re-interviewed a number of respondents, and here was one quote from an Obama supporter that ended up on the TV cutting room floor but is appropriate. "I'm sorry that now we're in another war. We were in Iraq, you know, we were pulling back and now, we're in Afghanistan. Do we really need another war? I understand that yes, the president is trying to go after Al-Qaeda but do we need to be yet in another war where we're spending billions of dollars every day or every month?" And remember, this is an Obama SUPPORTER!?!?!  There won't be the same public patience on Afghanistan as there was on Iraq even though, logically, one would assume differently since there is near universal agreement that Afghanistan is home to more of our enemies. 

*** The Blair House Project: At 6:15 pm ET at the Blair House (near the White House), President Obama and Vice President Biden begin huddling with the administration's cabinet secretaries to assess their first six months in office. CEOs hold these kinds of retreats all the time to identify what's working and what's not. So what's working and what's not? And who should/will be put on notice by the president at this retreat?

Countdown to Election Day 2009: 95 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 459 days

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The Boston Globe on the Beer Summit: "They did not link arms, and there were no public apologies. But a subdued meeting over beers on the White House patio last evening appeared to achieve President Obama's goal of encouraging a deeper dialogue on race between Harvard professor Henry Louis Gates Jr. and Cambridge police Sergeant James Crowley." 
 
Sgt. Crowley from the AFL-CIO headquarters: "Two gentlemen agreed to disagree. This was a positive step in moving forward."

Video: President Obama and Vice President Biden sit down with Harvard professor Henry Louis Gates Jr. and the officer who arrested him, Sgt. James Crowley, for a beer at the White House. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.

Prof. Gates (in a statement on TheRoot.com): "I would like to applaud President Obama for bringing Sergeant Crowley, me and our families together…  Sergeant Crowley and I, through an accident of time and place, have been cast together, inextricably, as characters – as metaphors, really – in a thousand narratives about race over which he and I have absolutely no control… It is incumbent upon Sergeant Crowley and me to utilize the great opportunity that fate has given us to foster greater sympathy among the American public for the daily perils of policing on the one hand, and for the genuine fears of racial profiling on the other hand. .. At this point, I am hopeful that we can all move on...."

More: "Scholars said the meeting was apparently an unprecedented intervention in a local dispute by a sitting US president, part of the White House damage control" after the "stupidly" comment. 
 
The New York Post's cover has the three men clinking mugs and a headline: "Brew-haha." 
 
The New York Daily News uses the same photo and the headline, "Touch of Glass." (You can also clearly see Prof. Gates' cane.)

More troops for Afghanistan? "As Gen. Stanley McChrystal readies his assessment of the war, due next month, numerous U.S. officials and outsiders apprised of his thinking suggest McChrystal will request more American troops, probably including Marines, to be added next year."

Another Obama-can… Obama "will nominate former Republican Rep. Anne Northup of Kentucky to head the Consumer Product Safety Commission, the White House announced Thursday night. Northup represented Kentucky's 3rd district from 1997 until 2006, when Democrat John Yarmuth unseated her. Yarmuth held off a challenge from Northup in 2008. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has been a strong supporter of Northup throughout her career. The appointment marks another step by Obama to bring Republicans into his administration."

*** CLARIFICATION *** A spokesman to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell notes that Northup isn't necessarily joining the administration. "Like a lot of commissions, there are Republican seats and Democrat seats. Northup was recommended to the President by Sen. McConnell to serve in one of the Republican seats. They didn't make that clear in the White House release."

Video

: The government's so-called "cash for clunkers" program has increased auto sales so much that dealers asked Congress Thursday to expand the program. NBC's Chris Jansing reports.

Cash for Clunkers is running out of money already after the program spurred big car sales over the past week.
 
It's President Obama's birthday on Tuesday. He turns 48. Sen. John Kerry was asked what he'd give Obama for his birthday if he could: "A good healthcare bill passed out of the Finance Committee before recess so the president has momentum on the biggest issue of his first year in office." Yeah. Good luck with that.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus says his panel will not introduce a health-care reform bill before the August recess, NBC's Ken Strickland reports. This forces Majority Leader Harry Reid to push back another timetable for passing a bill. Reid had said publicly he wanted the committee bill passed before Aug. 7. "Nevertheless," Baucus said, "we're as committed, if not more committed, to finding a bipartisan agreement." The announcement comes a day after key Republicans involved in writing the bill complained the process was moving too fast.

"We have not been committed to deadlines," said Republican Chuck Grassley, one of the six bipartisan negotiators. "We've been committed to getting a job done. And that's where we are today. That's where we've been -- Max and I -- for five months. And that's where the six of us have been for the last month."

Video: Have the Blue Dog Democrats fallen for a Republican ruse with their August time out? Newsweek's Howard Fineman discusses the GOP's scary stall tactics.

"House Democratic leaders have developed a coordinated strategy for attacking insurance companies to ward off attacks from opponents of their health care overhaul during the August break, according to a strategy memo obtained by The Hill. 'Our message is simple. It is now being echoed by the White House,' said the memo sent to all Democratic members. 'And it counters the Republican 'government takeover' message.' The message in the memo, though, won't fit on a bumper sticker: 'Remove the insurance companies from between you and your doctor— capping what they can force you to pay in out of pocket expenses, co-pays and deductibles, and giving you the peace of mind you will be covered for the care you need, if get sick, or if you change or lose your job.'"

Politico looks at the pressure Blue Cross-Blue Shield is putting on the Blue Dogs. "President Barack Obama's signature proposal, a public plan option to introduce more competition in private markets, would be significantly weakened, reflecting pressure from Blue Cross-Blue Shield plans that dominate many rural states and that were a source of millions of dollars in campaign contributions last year. The small-business lobby, itself a political powerhouse, carved out a larger exemption for operations earning up to $500,000 annually. At the same time, families are asked to dig deeper to afford the promised coverage to be bought through public exchanges."

"The House on Thursday bucked President Barack Obama's veto threats and overwhelmingly approved a $636 billion Pentagon spending bill for fiscal 2010. The bill, passed on a 400-30 vote, does meet Obama's demand to cap the F-22 fighter jet program, something he personally lobbied for. But the measure still contains funding for two programs that have drawn veto threats from the administration. In particular, the White House this week threatened to veto the bill over $560 million for an alternate engine for the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter as well as $485 million for new helicopters to fly the president on short trips from the White House. The Obama administration did not request funding for either program."

So Max Baucus

says he has "no idea" how he'll vote on Sotomayor? This comes after liberals have been frustrated by his work on health care. "I have no idea," Baucus said, per The Hill. "I haven't paid any attention and I haven't announced… I've been so busy with healthcare. It's under consideration. I'll certainly know when I vote, but right now I can't tell you."

By the way, The Hill points out: "Baucus had an A rating from the NRA in 2008, as did two other Senate Democrats who ran last year: Tim Johnson of South Dakota and Mark Warner of Virginia." Johnson, Warner and Montana Democrat Jon Tester have said they both intend to support Sotomayor. And even Republican Lamar Alexander said yesterday he'd support her -- despite his A rating from the NRA. The National Rifle Association, which opposes Sotomayor, has vowed to make the vote part of its ratings system this year. 
 
Debate on her confirmation may begin Tuesday, Roll Call reports.

It's official. Sarah Palin is not attending that Simi Valley Republican women's group talk -- emceed by Palin supporter John Ziegler. Invitations had gone out with her name on them. And it was set to be her first appearance -- though closed to the press -- since she stepped down as governor of Alaska. Palin's people had never confirmed that she was attending.

The Republican Women Federated of Simi Valley released a statement: "We regret to inform you that Governor Sarah Palin is unable to attend our event on August 8, 2009. As stated, we invited her to attend and we were honored by her consideration. We sincerely appreciate the support of our members and guests. We will refund ticket purchases for anyone who chooses not to attend. Contact us by end of business Tuesday, August 4, 2009 … with your name, address, and telephone number for refunds. We apologize for any inconvenience."

Video: Bloomberg News' Margaret Carlson discusses whether former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will keep herself in the political arena or pursue other interests.

The group had put out a statement July 12 saying Palin was attending. Back then, the group's president said she "respected Palin's right to change her plans at any time," the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote. "She said in an e-mail that correspondence with the governor's office has been 'positive but cautious,' but she added, 'we know she will come.'"

There is an internal spat within the RNC that is playing out at the summer meeting in San Diego. Some RNC old guard would like to limit Michael Steele's ability to hand out consulting contracts.

The Hill looks at the perils of running as an incumbent governor in 2010.

NEW JERSEY: A spokesman for New Jersey's U.S. Attorney office said that accusations that Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie intervened in a federal fraud suit,  leading to a plea agreement that "prevented a developer from collecting whistleblower payments," were "unsubstantiated and politically charged." Developer Samuel Yarosh, who says he "tipped off federal agents" to his former business partner and Assembleyman Morton Salkind's tax evasion, has filed a lawsuit claiming that Salkind's lawyers, both political allies of Christie, got a "sweetheart deal" from federal prosecutors: Salkind plead guilty to only one count of tax evasion, and Yarosh didn't receive any percentage of Salkind's recovered money, a common reward for whistleblowers. 

On Thursday, Democratic Governor Jon Corzine's camp released an ad criticizing Christie's "handling" of the case. 

NORTH DAKOTA: Rut-ro for Dems. Could this be true? Republican Gov. Hoeven is being heavily recruited by the NRSC AGAIN to challenge Byron Dorgan. Normally, the GOP can't produce a poll that gets a popular Republican at any better than even, but now they have a poll showing Hoeven up double-digits.

VIRGINIA: As part of "efforts by the national parties to target politicians they believe to be vulnerable at home," Virginia Representative Gerald Connolly and Virginia Democratic Party chairman Richard Cranwell are "slamming Rep. Eric Cantor and Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell for not supporting President Obama's recovery bill." At a press conference yesterday, Connolly noted "irony" in that Cantor "successfully roped every Republican member of the House to oppose [the Economic Recovery Act]…while at home he's writing letters urging that a major chunk of that money be invested in his district." An RNC spokeswoman responded, saying that the bill "wastes Virginians tax dollars," noting that the rising unemployment rate since President Obama's inauguration makes it "hard to see how this massive spending experiment can be billed as a success." 
 
The Washington Post asks both Virginia candidates what kind of beer they would request if invited to the White House for one. Said Deeds' spokesman: "Creigh would drink what he always drinks, Budweiser. He's a consistent guy." McDonnell, however, would choose a Coors Light. "Both campaigns declined to provide any memorable stories involving their candidates' consumption of their beer of choice. 'Any good stories are locked away until after Election Day," McDonnell's rep said.

From NBC's Luke Russert

House members of the Congressional Tri-Caucus -- comprised of the Asian Pacific American, black and Hispanic caucuses and the Progressive Caucus stated they would not vote for health-care reform legislation that did not include a "robust public option."

Lynn Woolsey (D-CA), a member of the Progressive Caucus claimed at a news conference today on Capitol Hill that she had a letter with 53 signatures, attesting to that. "We have gathered here today to demand that the final health-care legislation has a robust public option and to vow we will vote against it if it does not," she said.

Video: Rachel Maddow is joined by Rep. Anthony Weiner, to talk about the latest battles in Congress to pass the health care reform bill.

Echoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's words from earlier in the day, Woolsey took a swipe at health-insurance companies saying, "Insurance companies have had decades to provide the kind of coverage that Americans need. They have shown that they cannot or they will not do it."

Woolsey then said, "We can compromise no more."

Barbara Lee (D-CA), chairwoman of the Congressional Black Caucus, went after those who have said health-care legislation is too costly in the midst of a recession. "We must continue to reject these claims that the cost of reforming health care in America is something that our nation cannot afford," she said. "We reject that. The money is there to pay for all Americans."

Lee then urged for a national system similar to Medicare saying, "The cornerstone of comprehensive health-care reform is a robust public health plan option similar to Medicare; Medicare has worked!"

Nydia Velazquez (D-NY), chairwoman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, continued the demand for a public option saying, "Business as usual is not going to work. We will support nothing less than real comprehensive health care."

Michael Honda (D-CA), chairman of the Asian Pacific American Caucus, attacked the recent compromise made by four members of the Blue Dog Democrats on the House Energy and Commerce Committee. "The compromise will cost more than the original bill, pose a greater burden on working families, gut the public plan eliminating access subsidies for families between 300 percent and 400 per cent of poverty," Honda proclaimed. "The people of my district are relying on us to bring true reform to the health-care system, and this is not it."

After the conference, Donna Edwards (D-MD) was asked by NBC News about the possibility of supporting a health-insurance co-op, an idea that earlier in the week Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) said he was open to.

Edwards responded, "Co-ops haven't really worked in this country. There were attempts to do co-ops, and there is maybe one left in the entire country." She continued: "Insurance companies and co-ops do not start out automatically with a provider network…I think it would be very difficult and very costly to pursue wholesale across the country this idea of co-op."

From NBC's Scott Foster
During a photo spray with the Philippines president, the president spoke about tonight's meeting with Harvard Professor Gates and Sgt. Crowley.

Obama said he's "fascinated with the fascination about tonight."

Video: President Obama speaks on his chat with a black professor and the white police officer who arrested him.
 
He added that he's heard this has been called the beer summit.

"That's a clever term, but this is not a summit," he said. "It's three folks having a drink at the end of the day and hopefully giving an opportunity to listen to each other."

He continued: "This  is not a university seminar; this is not a summit; it's a personal interaction. ... The issue has been so hyped and symbolic you lose sight that there are people involved inclduing myself all of whom are imperfect."

He added that "hopefully instead of ginning up anger and hyperbole," there will be some self reflection and that other people have "different points of view."

On his meeting with the Philippine president, Obama said he "would be surprised if the media makes this [the beer summit] the lead as opposed to this very important meeting with this important ally, but the press has surprised me before."

From NBC's Luke Russert

At her weekly press conference today, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi came out aggressively against health insurance companies and their opposition to a public insurance option. "I think it is pretty clear that we want a strong public option in the legislation. Insurance companies full force carpet-bombing and shock and awe against the public option -- so much so that the American people doubt the plan or are uncertain about it, until you tell them what is in it."

Later, off camera, while walking with reporters to her office, Pelosi took it a step further and questioned the morality of health insurance companies that oppose a public option. "It is somewhat immoral what they are doing. Of course, they have been immoral all along how they have treated the people that they insure."

In a passionate tone, she continued, "They are the villains in this. They have been part of the problem in a major way. They have been doing everything in their power to stop a public option from happening. The public has to know that. They can describe their arguments any way they want, but the fact is they don't want the competition. They don't even want anti-trust laws. They have had a good thing going for a long time at the expense of the American people and the health of our country. Our members have to go out there ready to take on a big special interest that has not made our country healthier and have made our cost spiral upward and for whom that is coming to an end."

Pelosi then said this about the health-care reform legislation: "This is the fight of our lives for the people that we represent, for their health."

Video: A new poll shows that the majority of voters are against a public health option run by the government, a surprising voice has come out against health care reform. NBC's Dr. Nancy Snyderman talks with Dr. David Scheiner who was President Obama's doctor for 22 years before he moved into the White House.

During her press conference, Pelosi was asked about her opinion on the current deal struck by four members of the Blue Dog coalition who sit on the Energy and Commerce Committee. Pelosi replied, "The language that is in the proposal by the Blue Dogs, is the exact same language that is in the health bill in the Senate -- Sen. Kennedy's bill. So I think there is plenty of common ground as we go forward on this." She continued, "Sen. Kennedy's bill … is one that I think would be okay. It's not my preference. My preference is a stronger bill. It meets the test of having an effective public option."

Lastly, when concluding her press conference, Pelosi invoked a folksy story about the history behind the phrase, "Thank you ma'am," to describe the current health-care reform debate.

"They said it probably came from the fact that when a young man was courting a young woman, and they were driving down the road. And they hit a bump in the road, and she'd fall towards him. He'd say, 'Thank you ma'am.' So a bump in the road became equated with 'Thank you ma'am.' So we have a few 'Thank you ma'ams' going on around here when we are dealing with a bill of this size. This is all part of the legislative process. Our Democrats will be together to vote on comprehensive health care for all Americans."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Kelly O'Donnell
The White House awarded 16 Medals of Freedom today to a group that included -- from the world of politics -- Sen. Ted Kennedy and Jack Kemp, as well as Justice Sandra Day O'Connor.

"I am profoundly grateful to President Obama for this extraordinary honor," Kennedy

said in a statement. "My life has been committed to the ideal of public service which President Kennedy wanted the Medal of Freedom to represent. To receive it from another President who prizes that same ideal of service and inspires so many to serve is a great privilege that moves me deeply."

Others include: Physicist Stephen Hawking, tennis great Billie Jean King, gay rights activist Harvey Milk (whose life was memorialized in a feature film this past year), actor Sidney Poitier, actress Chita Rivera, Archbishop Desmond Tutu, Nancy Goodman Brinker (founder of Susan G. Komen for the Cure), Dr. Pedro Jose Greer (a Miami physician that helps the homeless and disadvantaged children in Miami), Rev. Joseph Lowery (civil rights leader), Dr. Joseph Medicine Crow, (last living Plains Indian war chief), Mary Robinson (first female President of Ireland), Janet Davison Rowley (geneticist and cancer researcher), Dr. Muhammad Yunus ("micro-loan" pioneers, providing credit to the poor)

From NBC's Scott Foster
In an off-camera gaggle, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs says today's meeting between the president, Sgt. Crowley and Prof. Gates is "not an after action report," and he reiterated there will be "no formal agenda."

"We are not here to mediate apologies," Gibbs added.

Gibbs says the president believes the meeting will help "foster a dialogue" on race, but Gibbs added, "It's not something that's just going to involve him or the actions of the presidency. ... It has to continue to happen at all levels."

Video: Rev. Jesse Jackson, MSNBC's Dylan Ratigan and a panel discuss the potential impact of the "beer summit."

Don't expect any comments from the photo spray, Gibbs said.

"I don't anticipate any sound at the meeting, whether or not they talk afterwards is completely up to them," Gibbs said.

The families of Crowley and Gates who are coming to the White House will also get a tour of the White House, according to Gates.

Also, Gibbs said there was never a discussion of inviting the 9-1-1 caller, Lucia Whalen, to tonight's meeting.

"I only saw some comments by her lawyer, but the best I can say is it was never something that was discussed, " Gibbs said.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Back to Nov. 3, 2008: Perhaps the most striking observation from the new NBC/WSJ poll is how Barack Obama's standing has returned to where it was right before Election Night. His job-approval rating has dropped to 53%, which just happens to be the percentage of the popular vote he won in November. His approval among independents and Republicans is, respectively, 49% and 16%, which is fairly close to his exit-poll scores with these groups. And Obama's fav/unfav in our poll is 55%-34, which is almost identical to his fav/unfav in our mid-October 2008 NBC/WSJ poll. How did we return back to 2008? One obvious explanation is the health-care debate, which has turned into a Democrat-vs.-Republican fight. In fact, the 16% of Republicans approving of Obama's job is a five-point decline from our June survey and a nine-point one since April. NBC/WSJ co-pollster Bill McInturff (R) says Obama had been flying above the partisan fray, but he's now come back down to earth. "The question I asked back in February was: When does political gravity take hold? The answer is in this survey. It is happening now."

Video: MSNBC's Carlos Watson and Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., discuss whether the Blue Dog Democrats and Republicans can work together to fight President Barack Obama's health care plans.

*** Health care & stimulus numbers slipping: Speaking of health care, our poll also shows that the more Obama has campaigned on the issue, the worse his numbers have become. In it, 42% now say that the president's plan is a bad idea, which is a 10-point increase since last month; only 36% say it's a good idea. In addition, 39% -- a plurality -- believe that Obama's plan would result in the quality of their health care getting worse, which is a 15-point jump since April. And just 41% approve of the president's job on health care, which is nearly identical to Bill Clinton's scores from 1994, when he failed to get Congress to pass health reform. (Just asking, but what happens to Obama's health numbers this fall, when there might be a shortage -- and rationing! -- of swine-flu shots?) A final note about health care: Support for a public insurance option decreases (to 46%-44%) when you take out the word "choice" from last month's survey. What's more, health care isn't the only domestic priority for Obama that has become less popular. According to the poll, 43% now believe the stimulus was a bad idea, which is up 16 points since January. Indeed, the NBC/WSJ survey finds that the public's top concern about Obama's young presidency is that he has spent too much money.

*** The GOP's new edge on the deficit/controlling spending: How concerned is the public with spending? Concerned enough that the GOP now has a six-point advantage over the Democrats on which party do you trust more on reducing the deficit -- which is the first time Republicans have led on this question since 1997 (!!!). Moreover, the GOP now has advantages over the Democrats on controlling government spending and taxes. And that could make Obama's job to sell a health-care bill (and the tax increases that would pay for it) more difficult. Still, the Democratic Party maintains its edge over the GOP on health care, energy, getting the country out of recession, and the economy, although those advantages are smaller than they were a year ago. Overall, the Democratic Party's fav/unfav rating is 42%-37%, while the GOP's is 28%-41%.

*** 1994 or 1982? Looking ahead to 2010, one other thing that has declined for Democrats is their edge in the generic ballot. According to our new poll, Americans prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress over a GOP-controlled one, 46%-39%. But that seven-point advantage for Democrats is their smallest edge here since April 2006. Much of the increase comes from white men and white women. While a seven-point Dem advantage doesn't suggest a change in power like we saw in 1994, NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) says next year's midterms could look a lot like 1982, when the Democratic Party picked up seats after Ronald Reagan's first two years in office. "To me, 2010 is looking to be much like 1982," he said. "It's going to be a bad year for the incumbent party. It may not affect the president as much as it will affect the party and the makeup of the Congress." Another thing to note from the poll: The GOP has increased its strength in the South, and the regional splits between the parties look like they did pre-Katrina.

Video: MSNBC political analyst Laura Flanders talks about the GOP's continued criticism of the stimulus despite the Federal Reserve's report that most of its 12 regions have either stabilized economically or have seen a leveling off in the pace of the economic decline.

*** Biden, Pelosi, Romney, Clinton, and Palin: Despite the decline in his numbers, Obama (with a 55%-34% fav/unfav) is still the most popular politician measured in our poll. Vice President Biden's score is 38%-36% (reflecting the fact that when he gets into the news, it's usually because he did or said something wrong); House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's is 25%-44%, Mitt Romney's is 28%-20% (look what happens when you stay out of the news!); Hillary Clinton's is 53%-31%; and Sarah Palin's is 32%-43%. Looking at Palin and 2012, the poll shows that a whopping 67% of the public -- and 43% of Republicans -- say they would NOT like to see her as president someday. By comparison, 50% of Americans -- and 33% of Republicans -- say they don't want to see Romney become president.

*** Focus group time: As Peter Hart notes, poll numbers alone don't always tell you the entire story, however. And last night, he conducted a focus group with 12 independent voters in Towson, MD (outside of Baltimore) that one of your First Read authors attended. Seven of these indies voted for Obama last year, four voted for McCain, and one voted for Nader. We'll have more on this focus group in tomorrow's First Thoughts, but here are the quick highlights: Despite the drop in Obama's poll numbers, these participants -- even those who voted for McCain -- expressed hope and some positive feelings for the president. Yet they also expressed concern about the speed at which the president was moving on issues, particularly health care. Also, Michelle Obama won rave reviews from the participants, while Biden didn't.

Video: Many conservatives feel health care proposals are being rushed and were hoping Blue Dog Democrats would take their side. Rep. Mike Pence, D-Ind., discusses whether the Blue Dogs' decision to negotiate with Democratic leaders may hurt the prospect of a bipartisan health care bill.

*** The Great American Health Care Fight: Blue Dogs struck a deal with House Energy and Commerce Chairman Henry Waxman yesterday, but the agreement has angered liberals… NBC's Ken Strickland reports that although Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has called for the Senate Finance Committee to complete its bill before the August recess, two GOP negotiators (Grassley and Enzi) suggested that it probably won't happen… And finally, a last word about the Blue Dogs: Our new NBC/WSJ poll measured that group (white Democrats who aren't liberals), and found that while they overwhelmingly approve of Obama's job, they agree with him less on the issues. Just 46% of them think he's taking the country in the right direction, and only 41% think his stimulus package was a good idea. And you wonder why these Blue Dog congressmen are reluctant on health care…

Video: Why no Boston beers or microbrews for today's beer summit? NBC's Domenico Montanaro previews Obama's day.

 *** Obama's day: At 3:00 pm ET today, Obama meets with Philippines President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. And then three hours later comes his much-anticipated beer with Harvard professor Henry Louis Gates Jr. and Cambridge police officer James Crowley. There will be a pool spray of the men gathering.

*** Pawlenty's day: Finally today, retiring Minnesota Gov. (and potential 2012 candidate) Tim Pawlenty addresses the Republican National Committee's meeting in San Diego today. Per a source close to Pawlenty, the governor will introduce himself and lay out the case why Obama's policies are taking the country in the wrong direction. Talking about the budget, Pawlenty will emphasize the fact that he balanced the budget every year (which almost all governors have to do). On health care, he will criticize Obama's plan, saying it will "replace independence with dependence and increase costs." And on foreign policy, he will mention that he has just returned from Iraq and Afghanistan.

Countdown to Election Day 2009: 96 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 460 days

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Here's our write-up of the new NBC/WSJ poll: "Despite his public-relations blitz over the past two weeks to promote his plans to reform the nation's health-care system -- including holding two town halls on Wednesday -- President Barack Obama has lost ground on this issue with the American public... Pluralities now say that the president's health care plan is a bad idea, and that it will result in the quality of their care getting worse. What's more, just four in 10 approve of his handling on the issue."

Video: President Obama spent another day on the road Wednesday pushing a health care overhaul as Democrats in the House appeared to have settled on a compromise plan that they'll take to the floor for a vote. NBC's Savannah Guthrie reports.

Here's the Wall Street Journal's take: "Declining popularity of the health-care overhaul reflects rising anxiety over the federal budget deficit and congressional debate over the most contentious aspects of the legislation, including how to pay for it. The poll also shows concern over the role of government in determining personal medical decisions."

The CBS/New York Times poll, which shows Obama's approval rating at 58%: "Mr. Obama continues to benefit from strong support for the basic goal of revamping the health care system, and he is seen as far more likely than Congressional Republicans to have the best ideas to accomplish that. But reflecting a problem that has hindered efforts to bring major changes to health care for decades, Americans expressed considerable unease about what the end result would mean for them individually."

And here's Time's poll, which has the president's approval rating at 56%: "By significant margins, survey respondents said they believe the final health-reform legislation is likely to raise health-care costs in the long run (62%), make everything about health care more complicated (65%) and offer less freedom to choose doctors and coverage (56%)."

But: "At the same time, survey respondents remain dissatisfied with the current state of health-care delivery and supportive of reform in principle. Forty-six percent of respondents said it was "very important" that Congress and the President pass major health reform in the next few months, and an additional 23% said it was "somewhat important." Only 28% found the immediate effort either not very or not at all important. In a separate question, more Americans said it would be better to pass "major reform" to health care (55%) rather than "minor adjustments" (43%)." 

Video:

 Many Republicans are continuing to push the idea that President Obama's healthcare plan is going to "kill people." Is there any lower political tactic than trying to terrify the elderly with death? Democratic National Committee chairman Gov. Tim Kaine, D-VA, joins Rachel Maddow.

Meanwhile, the Boston Globe looks at the breadth of health-care ads out there, how much is being spent, and how they appeal to emotions on both sides. "The healthcare overhaul fight in Washington is bursting into America's livingrooms, and interests from many bands on the political spectrum are trying to transform an often wonky debate over 1,000-page bills into an emotional pitch that can be captured in 30 seconds." And: "It could prove to be the most expensive issue-oriented advertising effort in history, with nearly $15 million a week already being spent on focused spots." 

Are Americans are too dumb to understand the health-care debate? Politico's McGrane and Lerer: "It may go too far to say that Americans are too dumb to understand concepts like 'bending the cost curve.' Or too preoccupied by 'America's Got Talent' to decide whether 'evidence-based medicine' is a euphemism for rationing. But all sides of the debate are facing the same essential challenge: How to boil down arguments that flummox even veteran legislators into simple appeals that will engage an easily distracted, easily flustered electorate."