From NBC's Mike Viqueira

The debate on the energy bill is wrapping up. It's going to be close, but House Democratic leaders are now slightly more confident that they can pass the measure.

Evidence that the high pressure whip effort by President Obama and Democratic leaders is paying dividends. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX), who had taken the floor just this morning to disparage the bill in no uncertain terms and who later voted against the procedural measure to bring it to the floor, has now changed his mind.

Doggett took to the floor moments ago and said he will support it.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier this morning, we warned you to expect MoveOn and other progressive groups to press North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan, after she suggested she wasn't ready to support a public/government option to compete against private health insurers.

Well, right on cue, here's MoveOn:

Given recent comments showing that Sen. Hagan is not supporting the public health insurance option, MoveOn.org will be making clear that our 115,000 members in North Carolina -- many of whom volunteered for or donated to her campaign last year -- believe the public option is the heart of true health care reform. We'll run ads in North Carolina and D.C. asking that she advocate for the public option and support the President in truly solving the nation's health care crisis.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira

In your House of Representatives, expect a photo finish on the climate/energy/cap-and-trade bill around 5:00 pm ET. More info to come...

From NBC's Mike Viqueira

We have the potential for legislative drama on the House floor today, as Nancy Pelosi and Democrats are still scrambling for votes in support of the energy bill.

The pressure is on wavering members, especially majority Democrats. Rep. Lloyd Doggett, a left-leaning member from Austin who is opposing the measure on the grounds that it has been excessively watered down in an effort to attract moderates, had an audience with the entire first family in the Oval Office last night.

Doggett was on the grounds to attend the congressional picnic when he was pulled aside by staff and brought into the Oval. The president was there, waiting to twist his arm, and so were Michelle, Sasha, Malia, and Bo, all of whom had gathered in preparation to go outside and join the festivities.

Doggett had what he estimates was 10 minutes where the president made his case, but he remains unconvinced. Not only will he vote against the bill, but this morning he went so far as to vote "nay" on a preliminary procedure vote ("the rule"), a move considered around here to be a heresy against party discipline.

Doggett was not alone. Several Blue Dog Democratic moderates also voted against the rule, many of them from rural districts where they feel that the impact of the bill will result in higher energy costs. They were joined by liberals like Doggett, Kucinich, and DeFazio, who feel like it has been weakened to an unacceptable degree.

Even a committee chairman, Rep. Nick Rahall, from the coal-producing state of West Virginia, voted against the rule. That's not going to sit well with Dem leaders.

Bottom line here: Even with calls and meetings with the president, Al Gore and others, this thing is not yet over the top.

Expect a vote around 5:00 pm ET.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Pegged to the upcoming July 4 holiday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee says it will begin airing radio ads against some targeted House Republicans -- including GOP Reps. Ken Calvert (CA), Charlie Dent (PA), and Lee Terry (NE) -- for voting against the recent war supplemental bill.

The ads will begin July 1 and will run for a week.

Here's a sample of one of the ads: "When George Bush asked, Congressman Terry voted to fully fund our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan," a narrator says. "And last year he said, quote, 'We must give our military every resource it needs.'"

It continues, "Seems like Congressman Terry is playing politics now. Last month Congressman Terry voted AGAINST funding for those same troops... It's a shame. Call Lee Terry. Ask him why he voted against our troops. Ask him: What changed?"

Republicans who voted against the legislation say they supported the troops, but opposed it because it contained unnecessary spending, like money for the International Monetary Fund.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Don't Stop 'Til You Get Enough: As anyone who has turned on a television set in the past 12-15 hours has noticed, Michael Jackson's passing will overshadow any political news today -- and perhaps throughout the weekend. Of course, that's probably welcome news to South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford, as well as to a Republican Party that was going to have to endure more "What's wrong with the GOP?" stories. Also, the Jackson news, plus the fact that it's the Friday before Congress leaves for its July 4 break, makes it a ripe opportunity for a bad news dump. So what/who will it be? Still, politics doesn't stop. President Obama meets in the White House with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at 10:30 am ET, and the two hold a joint press conference an hour later.

Obviously, much of the coverage of today's bilateral will focus on some of the tension between the two world leaders, particularly over fiscal policy (Merkel has questioned the U.S. spending, while the Obama administration has wondered why Germany isn't doing more to counteract the global recession). But do note that this is the THIRD personal meeting between the two since Obama became president. The biggest news that Merkel and Obama could make would be on the issue of Iran.

*** Pick your title -- Human Nature, PYT, The Lady in My Life, The Way You Make Me Feel, She's Out of My Life, The Girl is Mine: Mark Sanford tries to return to some normalcy today, when he holds a cabinet meeting at 12:30 pm. But the calls for him to resign are getting louder now that he's admitted to visiting his Argentine girlfriend while on a taxpayer-funded trip. "While the purpose of this trip was an entirely professional and appropriate business development trip, I made a mistake while I was there in meeting with the woman who I was unfaithful to my wife with," Sanford said in a statement yesterday. "That has raised some very legitimate concerns and questions, and as such I am going to reimburse the state for the full cost of the Argentina leg of this trip." That's not satisfying some South Carolina Republicans, however. "I think he's gone, it's over," said state Senate Majority Leader Harvey Peeler Jr., per the New York Times. "Leaving aside his personal life, when you use taxpayer dollars, that's what Republicans are all about -- spending tax dollars wisely. This was not spending tax dollars wisely." The next three weeks are huge for Sanford. If there's a drip-drip of more allegations, then he probably can't hang on. But he's got two things going for him now: 1) Michael Jackson's death, and 2) the July 4th holiday. Both could be disruptions that keep him out of the public eye a tad. 

*** Thriller (on Capitol Hill): Perhaps the biggest drama in politics today will be in the House of Representatives, where Democrats are trying to bring to the floor -- and then pass -- the energy/climate change/cap-and-trade legislation. Per NBC's Mike Viqueira, Democrats last night didn't think they had the votes to pass the bill. And if they don't have the votes, they aren't going to bring it to the floor. Viq adds that the legislation is up in the air as of this morning. Right now, House Democrats plan to move forward with the bill first thing today. But it's not in the bag. Speaker Pelosi was seen stalking the floor yesterday during votes to button-hole wavering Democrats. Of course, today's drama sparks this question: If the energy bill is THIS heavy of a lift in the Democratic-controlled House, then how the heck is the White House going to get this bill out of the Senate?

Video: House Democrats just announced that they'll take a vote on a sweeping climate change bill by the end of the week. Venture capitalist Ira Ehrenpreis discusses why investing in green energy pays off in an economic downturn.

*** Beat It: Speaking to reporters at yesterday's Christian Science Monitor breakfast, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel listed a few contrasts between this year's health-care fight and the one that failed in '93-94 (industry groups are now playing a constructive role in the reform, the House committees drafting the legislation are now working together, and the administration is now allowing Congress to draft the legislation). But here's another difference: The majority of TV ad spending is SUPPORTING the White House's health-care efforts -- not OPPOSING them. That's also true on energy. To put it simply, Harry and Louise are getting overwhelmed right now. The campaign apparatus that serves as Obama's backstop is like nothing we've seen for a president, well, maybe ever. And that apparatus is probably enough to blunt special interest pressure. We've seen one example already -- the MoveOn TV ad against Dianne Feinstein. It's a message the group and Obama supporters hope is received by other wavering Democrats on health care. Also, the New York Times has a C.W.-setting piece on how the Obama White House and Senate Democrats are at an impasse over how to pay for health care.

*** Wanna Be Startin' Somethin': Missing those daily superdelegate counts? The speculation about when states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and Michigan would hold their primaries/caucuses? Come on, admit it -- you miss it. Well, if you are, you can head over Saturday morning to the first meeting of the DNC's Democratic Change Commission, which has been tasked with reforming 1) the primary calendar, 2) the number of superdelegates, and 3) the caucus system. Presiding over the meeting will be DNC chair Tim Kaine and commission co-chairs Jim Clyburn and Claire McCaskill, and there isn't supposed to be any big news. The 37-member commission will listen to a presentation of Democratic Party presidential nominations by Rhodes Cook; a look at the superdelegates by Elaine Kamarck; and an examination of the caucus system by Organizing for America's Mitch Stewart. This is all in the fact-gathering stage, but ask yourself this: How likely is it that this DNC would dramatically change a system that helped launch the president's campaign? Iowa and South Carolina are VERY safe. As for the superdelegate system, well that's another story…

*** Because I'm bad, I'm bad, come on (or sha-mon): Per Politico, "House Appropriations Committee Chairman Dave Obey (D-Wis.) and Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) engaged in a late-afternoon shouting match on the House floor after Obey reportedly rebuffed Waters on an earmark request, aides and witnesses said." More: "Witnesses, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it appeared that Waters pushed or shoved Obey. The pair were seen shouting at each other and had to be separated by members -- who were crowded on the floor casting final votes before heading off to a party at the White House." She wanted him to fund a program in her name. Obey, no fan of projects in members' names -- so-called "monuments to me" -- said no. The scuffle ensued. Will this make Obey a hero on Fox News opinion programs? Stay tuned.

*** Rock With You (and Reagan): Finally, while covering the Reagan White House, NBC's Andrea Mitchell remembers vividly Michael Jackson's photo-op with the late president. Reagan (and Transportation Secretary Elizabeth Dole) granted him a presidential public safety communication award on May 14, 1984, to thank him for allowing the White House to use his hit song, "Beat it" in a campaign against teen drunken driving. "Well, isn't this a thriller," Reagan said at the time. "We haven't seen this many people since we left China." The Washington Post reported then: "'Just think, you all came to see me,' Reagan added, looking out over the crowd on the South Lawn of the White House."

Countdown to Election Day 2009: 130 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 494 days

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The AP previews today's Obama-Merkel meeting. "President Barack Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel probably will hold to their disparate views on the Afghanistan war and economic policy in the midst of worldwide financial problems during a meeting Friday."

Speaking of negotiating and bending and lobbying moderate Dems, the AP looks at how some liberals in the party are worried the president will bend too much.

Is there a bigger story in the world that no one is covering than the U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq's major cities next week? "Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki has taken to calling the withdrawal of American combat troops from Iraq's cities by next Tuesday a 'great victory,' a repulsion of foreign occupiers he compares to the rebellion against British troops in 1920… American commanders have hewed far more closely to the June 30 deadline for withdrawing combat forces from Iraq's cities than expected only a few weeks ago, according to American and Iraqi officials. ... The day itself has been declared a national holiday, though it is not yet clear whether Iraq will hold the "feast and festivals" he recently promised. American and Iraqi officials acknowledge the risks -- to Mr. Maliki's political position and to Iraqis' safety."

 Video: A massive bombing that left scores of people dead in Baghdad Wednesday has raised new fears that the U.S. is entering a bad phase in Iraq just days ahead of a troop pullout. NBC's Brian Williams reports.

Per the New York Times, John McCain was making demands for his support of any immigration bill. "President Obama told a bipartisan group of lawmakers on Thursday that Congress should begin debating a comprehensive immigration plan by year's end or early next year, but Republicans said they would support a measure only if it included an expansion of guest worker programs. Leading the call for that provision was Senator John McCain of Arizona, who told Mr. Obama he would have to take his 'political lumps' and stand up to labor unions that oppose the idea. The president praised Mr. McCain for paying 'a significant political cost for doing the right thing.'"

"Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Thursday the administration will send legislative language to Congress in the next few days to create a consumer financial products agency, one of the key parts of its overhaul plan. ... But he refused to answer a question on whether he had been informed ahead of time by Citigroup Inc. of its plans to modify its salary arrangements for many bank employees."

"Seeking to avoid the legislative minutia that has consumed some of his predecessors, President Barack Obama is pushing his agenda through Congress by outlining a broad vision of his policy goals and then letting lawmakers fill in the blanks. Republicans would like to make him pay for that. GOP leaders on Capitol Hill see in Obama's approach a chance to paint the young president as disengaged from the work required to address the country's ills. 'It's the perpetual campaign,' said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. 'It's photo-ops; it doesn't happen to include doing the hard work it takes to solve big problems that he talks about but I don't ever see him doing.'"

(You can call Obama a lot of things, but is "disengaged" one of them?)

As we reported yesterday, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry's former-brother-in law -- who remains a close friend -- and two more Obama top fundraisers were handed plum jobs as ambassadors to Italy, Austria and Finland.

"Straw huts, hula dancers and kids playing with hula hoops were all on display Thursday evening in the White House's backyard - not the typical congressional picnic," AP writes. "President Barack Obama wanted it this way for the annual picnic for members of Congress and their families. 'I just want to say to all the members of Congress, you've been working hard. I wish I could give you all trips to Hawaii,' Obama said in his brief remarks. 'But I figured since, given our budget crunch we can't do that, that we'd at least bring Hawaii to you.'" (Check out the photo of Obama and daughter dancing with lays on.)

THE SANFORD FALLOUT.
The New York Times: "Gov. Mark Sanford of South Carolina acknowledged Thursday that he visited his mistress in Argentina on a taxpayer-financed trade mission to South America early last summer, an admission adding another layer to a scandal that produced increasing calls for his resignation."

Video: The State's Gina Smith talks with MSNBC about breaking the news of Gov. Mark Sanford's trip to Argentina, and e-mails with his mistress, which they had acquired months before the scandal broke.

'Sanford and Hon': The New York Post profiles Sanford's mistress (photo included), a 43-year-old TV reporter in Argentina.

Wow, we didn't know this… The Washington Post front-pages that both Sanford and Ensign have ties to the secretive "Fellowship" religious group. 

The Hill reports on the altercation between Reps. David Obey and Maxine Waters. "'You're out of line,' Waters shot while walking down toward the well. 'You're out of line,' Obey shot back before turning and walking away.

But then Obey stopped, turned back toward Waters, and shouted: 'I'm not going to approve that earmark!' Obey turned away, but Waters went to go huddle with members of the Congressional Black Caucus. She could be over heard telling them: 'He touched me first.'" Obey huddled with Steny Hoyer. "Waters soon returned briefly, again telling her colleagues: 'He touched me.' Waters then disappeared into the cloakroom." Members continued to argue over who started it and who pushed who. Both are 71 years old. 

Roll Call's take: "The confrontation began with the two talking in each other's faces and gesturing animatedly with their hands. Obey then attempted to walk away, but Waters kept following him. Obey then put his hand on Waters arm and shoulder, and Waters became irate. Obey again turned away, dismissing Waters by throwing up his hands, but Waters continued to stalk him, talking to his back and making a shoving motion. Waters followed Obey down to the well of the House, and as the confrontation -- and shoves -- continued, Obey turned and told her: 'You are out of line.' To which Waters retorted: 'You are out of line.' 'I am not going to approve that earmark!' Obey exclaimed, then hustled away from Waters."

 
 
Reuters: "The U.S. House of Representatives is poised to vote on Friday on one of the most significant environmental bills in history -- a sprawling measure that aims to wean industry off of carbon-emitting fuels blamed for global warming. Democratic leaders were working hard to ensure there were at least 218 votes in the 435-seat House to pass the legislation that is a high priority for President Barack Obama." 

Freshman North Carolina Sen. Kay Hagan is not on board yet for a public insurance option. Here come the MoveOn ads?

... Bork, Estrada!? Remember the Alamo! Remember Bork! Remember Estrada! The New York Times says that Republicans and conservatives are still upset at the way they think GOP judicial nominees like Robert Bork and Miguel Estrada were treated -- and that, in part, explains why they're focusing their fire on Sotomayor.

NEW JERSEY: In a heated hearing before a Congressional panel, Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie testified that he awarded lucrative corporate anti-fraud monitoring contracts to political allies "to achieve results of justice for the public." He denied that giving former attorney general (and ex-boss) John Ashcroft a $52 million contract to oversee a corporation charged with fraud was "an example of cronyism." He did, however, concede that one of the law firms he had awarded a contract has since made large donations to his gubernatorial campaign.
 
Christie denied applying any pressure to the seven firms involved in the corporate fraud cases to accept the monitors Christie supported. Pressing the issue, one Democrat on the panel said, "You made them an offer they couldn't refuse," to which Christie said was a slur on his Italian-American background. (That indignation remind anyone of this? "I mean my goodness -- because I happen to have Greek heritage and if I go out in the sun for a half-hour and it looks like I've been out there for four hours because I have a darker complexion than somebody -- honestly Jim, I thought we were at the place in this country where the color of somebody's skin or the complexion that they have is not something that's an issue of political debate anymore." Name that pol.)
 
Two and a half hours into the hearing, Christie got up and left the hearing, saying, as he had previously told the panel, that he had to get back to New Jersey to attend to "pressing business." As Democrats continued to shout out questions, Christie hurried out of the Capitol, calling the hearing a "political circus."
 
Democrats on the subcommittee accused Christie of letting corporations get away with fraud by simply paying their way out of charges. New Jersey Representative Bill Pascrell (D) said, "These corporate criminals never admit guilt to the consumers they cheated, and thanks to Mr. Christie, they never will." But House Republicans praised him, with one offering to endorse his run for governor. Rep. Trent Frank (R-Ariz) said, "Chris Christie deserves a medal for achievements like these." 
 
NEW YORK: The chaos continues: After Gov. Paterson

cuts off some state Senate pay and has kept Democrats in Albany day after day to try and work out a deal, Sen. Kevin Parker called Paterson a "coke snorting, staff-banging governor," per the New York Daily News. "Paterson has admitted youthful drug use and several extra-marital affairs." 
 
VIRGINIA: With Sanford having been the head of the Republican Governors Association, does that mean any photos of him and GOP candidates will be some kind of opposition fodder? The Washington Post looks into whether Bob McDonnell has accepted any money from Sanford directly. He hasn't, though he like every other gubernatorial candidate has accepted money from the RGA.

From NBC's Athena Jones

It's no secret that White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs is in the tank for President Obama, but this time it's the White House press corps who put him there.

At least three dozen reporters, producers, photographers, and cameramen joined Obama staffers on the South Lawn this afternoon for a chance to plunge Gibbs into a dunk tank set up -- as part of a luau the White House is staging for members of Congress and their families.

The informal event was added to the schedule after reporters pressed Gibbs for the opportunity during the afternoon briefing.

Outside, thatched roof huts and multicolored table spreads decorated the lawn along with a volleyball net and a band shell, while inflatable sharks floated in the fountain.

Gibbs removed his glasses and passed them to an aide as he took his spot in the tank, behind bright red bars. He wore a long sleeved navy shirt and shorts.

Fox Correspondent Mike Emanuel was the first up to pitch, but missed at all three attempts. Second up was AP correspondent Ben Feller.

"Feller did you play college baseball?," Gibbs called out from the tank, joking about the water temperature ."It's warmer than it was when I checked earlier."

Feller sunk Gibbs on his third try and got cheers and high fives from the assembled press and a handshake from the press secretary.

Chicago Sun Times reporter Lynn Sweet also missed at her attempts, but CBS Correspondent Bill Plante hit the lever on his first try.

"Thanks," Gibbs said after Plante dunked him, later adding in response to a question: "We'll be back for members of Congress."

He will be joined at the tank tonight by White House staffers Phil Schiliro and Rahm Emanuel.

The White House expects some 2,000 members of Congress and their families to attend tonight's event. All of them will get plastic leis. Per the first lady's office, there will be Polynesian dancers and fire blowers, a DJ who will play Hawaiian music and favorites like the Beach Boys and Elvis and hula lessons.

Earlier in the day, First Lady Michelle Obama drew laughs from the audience and a smile from her husband when she mentioned the luau and briefly demonstrated a hula dance at a service event the First Family attended.

The president himself seemed pretty excited about the event, telling a bipartisan group of members of Congress at the end of a meeting on immigration: "Oh, and by the way, I hope everybody has got their Hawaiian shirts and their muumuus for our luau tonight."

White House staffers who gathered to witness the event included speechwriter Jon Favreau, West Wing receptionist Darienne Page (AKA ROTUS), and Social Secretary Desiree Rogers.

From NBC's Athena Jones
Americans must face the future, President Obama argued Thursday, as he urged members of Congress from both parties to come together to pass an energy bill aimed at limiting greenhouse gas emissions.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said she plans to bring the cap-and-trade bill to a vote in the House of Representatives on Friday -- a vote Obama said would be "of historic proportions" when he took to the Rose Garden podium to make his case to Congress and to the American people.

Video: House Democrats are set to vote Friday on a controversial energy and climate bill that faces near unanimous opposition by Republicans. Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C.  and The Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath discuss.

With a jobless rate that has reached the double digits in several states -- from California to Michigan -- and some 6.74 million people receiving unemployment insurance nationwide, Obama focused his pitch for the bill on its ability to create good jobs that cannot be exported.

"Make no mistake: This is a jobs bill," Obama said. "We're already seeing why this is true in the clean energy investments we're making through the Recovery Act."

He cited a solar plant in California that he says 3,000 people will help build, a wind project in Michigan that will create more than 2,600 jobs and solar projects in Florida that will employ 1,400 people to illustrate his point.

The bill -- which the president said had attracted a "remarkable coalition" of coalition of consumer and environmental groups, labor and business leaders and members of both parties -- would set limits on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions. Polluters would be able to buy and sell emission allowances.

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH), said the legislation would ship jobs overseas and that it was pointless since the United States could not control harmful emissions in places like China and India.

In his remarks, Obama returned to a theme he has used frequently in framing his administration's goals, saying he wanted to build a strong economic foundation for the country in the 21st century and he urged all members of Congress to support the bill.

"I know this is going to be a close vote, in part because of the misinformation that's out there that suggests there is somehow a contradiction between investing in clean energy and our economic growth," he said. "But my call to those members of Congress who are still on the fence, as well as to the American people, is this: We cannot be afraid of the future and we can't be prisoners of the past."

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett

has also criticized the legislation, telling CNBC the bill amounted to a tax on energy, because utilities would past the costs of compliance on to consumers.

Still, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs expressed confidence this afternoon that it could pass.

"We like where we are now, and I'd bet on the president," he told reporters.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Per a statement, South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford admits that he visited his mistress during a trade mission last year. He says he's reimbursing the state for the full cost of the Argentina leg of the trip.

Video: More questions were raised Thursday about whether taxpayers paid for South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford's trips to see a woman in South America with whom he admitted having an affair. NBC's Mark Potter reports.

Here's the statement from Sanford:

As noted by the Department of Commerce, I attended a trade mission with the Department of Commerce last June. As the agenda notes, the mission was spent meeting with government and private business officials in both Brazil and Argentina. This trip was handled very professionally by the Department of Commerce, and I'm proud of their work there.

However, while the purpose of this trip was an entirely professional and appropriate business development trip, I made a mistake while I was there in meeting with the woman who I was unfaithful to my wife with. That has raised some very legitimate concerns and questions, and as such I am going to reimburse the state for the full cost of the Argentina leg of this trip.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Kelly O'Donnell
Senate Foreign Relations Committe Chairman

John Kerry's former-brother-in law -- who remains a close friend -- and two more Obama top fundraisers were handed plum jobs as ambassadors to Italy, Austria and Finland.

David Thorne's late sister Julia was Kerry's first wife and mother of his daughters. He was named ambassador to Italy.

Bill Eacho, of Bethesda, Md., and Bruce Oreck, of Boulder, Colo., both raised more than $500,000 for Obama during his presidential campaign.

Eacho was named ambassador to Austria. Oreck was nominated for ambassador to Finland.

That brings the number of bundlers who have landed ambassadorships to 14.

Here's the full list:
-- Bill Eacho (Austria): More than $500,000 
-- Bruce Oreck (Finland): More than $500,000
-- Donald Gips (South Africa): More than $500,000
-- Nicole Avant (Bahamas): More than $500,000
-- Charles Rivkin (France): More than $500,000
-- John Roos (Japan): More than $500,000
-- Donald Sternoff Beyer Jr. (Switzerland and Liechtenstein): More than $500,000
-- Howard W. Gutman (Belgium): More than $500,000
-- Matthew Barzun (Sweden): More than $500,000
-- Louis Susman (U.K./Northern Ireland): Between $100,000 and $200,000
-- Laurie Susan Fulton (Denmark): Between $100,000 and $200,000, attorney at Williams & Connolly in DC
-- Vinai K. Thummalapally (Belize): Between $100,000 and $200,000
-- David Jacobson (Canada): Between $50,000 and $100,000
-- Samuel L. Kaplan (Morocco): Between $100,000 and $200,000

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus today said his panel has reached a significant milestone in writing its version of the health-care reform bill. He said the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has given cost estimates that will allow the bill to come in at $1 trillion without increasing the deficit.

"The CBO now tells us we have options that will enable us to write a $1 trillion bill fully paid for," Baucus told reporters after a closed-door committee meeting. But Baucus refused to divulge key elements or details of those "options" such public/government-run insurance plan, taxing employer-provided benefits, or employer mandates to provide coverage.

Video: President Obama asks Congress to support his energy bill, turning the country toward clean and renewable sources of energy while creating new industries and new jobs.

Baucus said he and ranking Republican Chuck Grassley won't share specifics on the bill "until we're sure we have it right. … I expect to ready sooner now that we have CBO numbers."

What does this "news" mean in the grand scene of things? It means we're must closer to finding out some of those key details about what their bill will look like: things like who will get taxed, what income levels will get subsidies, and if the panel will choose the "public option" or "co-op" plan to compete with private insurers.

It also means the committee has the "scoring" or cost estimates on enough different elements that it can begin to negotiate with hard numbers. The notion that the bill be "paid for" and not increase the deficit has been almost a universal support in Washington.

From NBC's Doug Adams
In the wake of the John Ensign scandal, GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell announced two leadership changes today at a press conference. The shakeup was necessitated when Ensign stepped down from his leadership position because of his admitted extramarital affair.

John Thune (R-SD)

was elected to take over Ensign's post as the chairman of the Republican Policy Committee. It's the No. 4 position in the leadership. He's expected to have a big say in energy issues, including the upcoming cap and trade legislation and rural issues. 

Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)

moves up into Thune's old position, vice chair of the Policy Committee.

During the presser, Thune said he "looked forward to not just challenging Democrats on what they're doing wrong, but advocating a forward looking, positive agenda for America's future." 

The Senate Republican Policy Committee has about 20 staff members who work in a "think tank" to evaluate and develop legislation. The committee serves as a central clearinghouse for Republican senators, as its Democratic counterpart does for Democratic senators.

From NBC's Luke Russert

In his weekly press conference on Capitol Hill, House Minority Leader John Boehner attacked Democrats on the issue of spending, saying: "They are running over us. They are in such a rush to spend the American people's money that they won't allow us to offer cost cutting amendments to reduce spending in these bills."

On the topic of health care, Boehner claimed that the Democratic plan for universal coverage would balloon into the trillions. "All the proposals we have seen on health care are going to cost somewhere between a trillion and two trillion dollars on new taxes on the American people to spend more on health care."

Boehner also chided President Obama for what he saw as "backtracking on his claim that Americans can keep the coverage that they have." This had to do with Obama saying on ABC that he won't sign a law mandating for employers what plans their employees must have. Hence, Republicans fear employers will automatically opt for the public/government plan.
 
Boehner, moreover, criticized Democrats for not including medical malpractice reform within their bill, arguing that Democrats "worship at the alter of the trial bar." Boehner also displayed his inner punditry by declaring: "If there isn't a bipartisan health-care plan moving into Congress, it is not likely to happen this year. I just don't think in the United States Senate, you can get a bill through there on a partisan basis that Americans will support."

Finally, Boehner said the Democratic plan for energy reform -- that's expected to hit the House floor on Friday -- would result in a loss of jobs. When asked about a Congressional Budget Office report noting that the House bill would cost American families $173 more a year, not the $3,100 he claimed in a press conference last week, Boehner said: "What is clear in the CBO score is that every American household is going to pay more."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira

A House leadership source says that, as of right at this moment, the votes are not there yet to pass the energy bill that the president is talking about this afternoon.

A full-court press in effect. House Democrats want to vote tomorrow, but won't put it on the floor if the votes aren't there to put it over the top.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira

Al Gore's scheduled appearance at a Democratic leadership rally promoting the energy bill has been canceled.

The official reason is that there is now a comfort level with the bill's prospects in the House that was not there just yesterday, and therefore Gore's presence both at a closed-door Dem caucus meeting and subsequent rally is not needed.

"It's a question of what was energy efficient for the vice president," said House speaker Nancy Pelosi.

There is also the feeling that a splashy rally might not be productive in terms of convincing fence sitters to vote "yeah" on the measure, as many of the holdouts are either moderate Dems or Republicans who might either wouldn't be at the caucus to begin with, or who might not be comfortable having Gore parachute in and be seen as having their arm twisted by the former veep.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Contrasting the differences between what happened in the early 1990s and what's happening now, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel -- who also worked in Bill Clinton's White House -- was optimistic about passing health-care reform this year. "We are in good shape," he told reporters in an off-camera breakfast meeting.

The first difference, Emanuel said, was that the interest groups that helped defeat health reform in the '90s -- the doctors, the hospitals, the insurers -- are playing a constructive role in the reform. Second, he noted that the three House committees working on the legislation are all on the same page, unlike what happened 15 years ago. And third, he said the Obama administration was allowing Congress to draft the legislation, which didn't happen in the '90s.

Yet in perhaps his most striking comments during the breakfast, Emanuel also observed this difference between now and then: fewer moderate Republicans, like the late Rhode Island Sen. John Chafee, who might be open to helping pass health-care reform. "They are a party that doesn't have Sen. Chafees" anymore," he said answering a question about whether the White House could get 10 or more Senate Republicans to vote for the legislation. "That makes getting bipartisanship done hard." He added that the Republican Party has transformed into a regional party and is seeing its poll numbers decline even after suffering defeats in two consecutive national elections.

Video: Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, joins the Morning Joe gang to discuss the back and forth over health care reform.

Given the dwindling number of GOP moderates, Emanuel urged the reporters in attendance not to judge whether the legislation is bipartisan based on whether how many Republicans vote for it. A better standard, he said, is 1) does it have Republican ideas in it, and 2) has President Obama tried to be bipartisan? All that said, Emanuel expects to get some GOP support, although he wouldn't say how many. "I do believe you'll see bipartisan votes."

Asked about polls showing that Americans want reform but are less certain about changes to their own health care, Emanuel answered that's why Obama continually states that people can keep their health insurance if they like it. He also turned the question on its head: If Americans are wanting reform, then why are opponents defending the status quo?

He also seemed open to Sen. Kent Conrad's (D) idea of a public co-op insurance plan. "Co-op is a fancy way of saying Blue Cross Blue Shield," Emanuel said.

Immigration
He said that it's "not impossible" to get immigration reform passed this year. But: "I think the most significant thing is to get it started now," so you can move on it later.

When asked whether there were enough votes to pass immigration reform, Emanuel replied, "If the votes were there, you wouldn't have [today's] meeting."

2010 politics
Asked why the White House was backing Kirsten Gillibrand for New York Senate and if was trying to eliminate any primary challenge she might receive, Emanuel said that if people want to run against her, they can. But he said he called Rep. Steve Israel -- whom he considers a friend -- to let him know that the White House would be supporting Gillibrand and would be involved in the race. He denied threatening Israel that Obama would campaign in African-American neighborhoods in New York for Gillibrand and against Israel.

Turning to his home state of Illinois, he said that state Attorney General Lisa Madigan is thinking about running for Obama's old Senate seat. "Lisa is thinking about running," adding that she's the "most popular figure in Illinois." Emanuel said that he met with her and discussed the pros and cons of running for the Senate vs. for governor. He stated that the decision she makes is up to her.

Other odds and ends
Some other interesting comments:
-- Asked to compare Bill Clinton with Obama, Emanuel talked about the more challenging economic and geopolitical climate that Obama faces. He also said Bill had a "creative" mind, while Obama has a "disciplined" mind.
-- He said Obama's recent Cairo speech will go down as one of modern history's most significant speeches on foreign policy. "America is no longer the issue in that [Muslim] world."

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Yesterday, we alerted you of an attack press release from AFSCME pres. Gerald McEntee against Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, regarding her Sunday comments that the votes weren't there for health care just yet.

Today, MoveOn unveiled a TV ad, which they claim is airing in the state's major markets for the next week, targeting Feinstein on this issue.

Watch the ad here...

Script follows:

"California voters sent Senator Dianne Feinstein to Washington to fight for us. That includes fighting to pass President Obama's health care plan. A recent poll shows that 71% of California voters want a significant overhaul of the health care system now.

But Feinstein has been dragging her heels, saying health care may just be too "difficult."

News flash Senator: We don't expect you to lead just on the easy issues.  

Senator Feinstein, please: Fight for California. Fight for President Obama's health care reform now MoveOn.org Political Action is responsible for the content of this advertising."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** In Obama we trust? Maybe now we understand why the RNC was so fired up about last night's town hall. President Obama, while peppered with tough questions about the issue, got an hour on national TV to make the case that he can be trusted to reform the health-care system. Remember, it's not about winning the debate on whether his way is RIGHT; it's about securing the TRUST of skeptical Americans that he'll take their concerns and go about this with care. And on that score, this is where we probably get why so many of the president's opponents were upset. This format was in the president's wheelhouse. Whether you agree with him or not, it's obvious he has a deep grasp of the issue, and no doubt he only helped his cause. Of course, we don't yet know how many folks watched. But the perception that he got into the details most likely is only a help to him, even if those details become unpopular. By the way, it doesn't appear the president committed any news, though some noted that he continued to leave open the door for supporting a tax on some health-care benefits. Also health care remains in today's news as liberals and progressives rally for reform on Capitol Hill at 11:30 am ET.

*** Social conservatism hits rock bottom? These certainly haven't been the best of times for social conservatives. Democrats control the White House and Congress. The problems at home and abroad have drowned out social issues (with congressional Republicans deciding to focus their fire on the economy). And now here's perhaps the biggest embarrassment: In less than two weeks, two of their own -- John Ensign and Mark Sanford -- have admitted to committing adultery. Just five years after it helped re-elect George W. Bush, has social conservatism in American politics hit rock bottom? If so, what does that mean for a political party that has largely tied its fortunes to this movement? As we've said before, infidelity is a bipartisan affair, but Republicans tend to receive more criticism because they more often portray themselves as the party protecting family values and marriage. Yet what happens when one can make the argument that the highest-profile example of family values and marriage -- right now -- isn't a Republican or social conservative, but rather the man who resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.? The issue for the GOP at this point is convincing grassroots social conservatives not to lose faith. As one of the leading social conservative voices in the party lamented to the New York Times, "I think there is somewhat of an identity crisis in the Republican Party," said Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council,  "Are they going to be a party that attracts values voters, and are they going to be the party that lives by those values?"

Video: Governor Mark Sanford, R-SC, resigned today as chair of the Republican Governors Association after admitting his affair with an Argentinean woman. Rachel Maddow is joined by Daily Beast contributor Mark McKinnon to assess the impact on the Republican Party.

*** More on Sanford and 2012: Sticking with Sanford and his troubles, there's lots of analysis this morning focusing on the bad six months the GOP has had -- particularly for Republicans who have tested the 2012 waters (see yesterday's First Read). A few things to watch for: One, who will pick up the mantle of the pure economic conservative/free market libertarian? Two, will grassroots social conservatives start expressing publicly their outrage over Sanford and Ensign and others and become harder to galvanize for the Republican Party as a whole? Three, do folks like Mitt Romney and Haley Barbour end up getting a big perception bump going into 2012 as the establishment looks for grownups who have been around the national political block before? Speaking of Barbour, he was in New Hampshire yesterday, and today he'll be in Des Moines, IA for a GOP dinner. He's an extraordinary fundraiser and helped lead the GOP's comeback to power in 1994, when he served as RNC chairman. On the other hand, he's a former lobbyist and Washington insider, as well as an older white male from the Deep South. By the way, thanks to the Sanford resignation, Barbour now has more excuses to travel nationally as he's now chair of the Republican Governors Association.

*** The "Thugocracy"? The news doesn't look encouraging this morning in Iran. Many experts and media reports are now noting what appears to be the new inevitable: that the Iranian regime's crackdown has been a success. That said, this morning, Iran is not a country that is being viewed as a theocracy -- but a good ol' fashioned dictatorship. Richard Haas of the Council on Foreign Relations (who's not exactly a rhetorical bomb-thrower) called the regime a "thugocracy." And to add evidence to its dictatorship tendencies, check out the L.A. Times report indicating that the TRUE heir apparent to the Supreme Leader is his son. That's how dictatorships act, not republics or democracies. So if the reality on the ground is now that the uprising has been beaten back, what's next for U.S. policy? Right now, it appears any efforts the Obama administration had wanted to make are now on hold (or in the words of one official "on ice"). Robert Gibbs all but said any unilateral efforts were being pushed aside. There is still an open hand on the multi-lateral front (P5+1), but that's always been the case.

Video: There were more reports Wednesday of forceful crackdowns on Iranian protesters as the country's leadership said election results will not be overturned. NBC's Chief Foreign Correspondent Richard Engel reports.

Immigration returns: In the past few days, the issues of health care and Iran have dominated Obama's agenda and public statements. But today, he turns his attention to the thorny subject of immigration reform, as he meets with bipartisan members of Congress at 2:00 pm ET to discuss this subject. The meeting comes a day after Sen. Chuck Schumer (D), who chairs the Senate subcommittee that would write any immigration reform legislation, laid out his principles, and after immigration advocates pressed the Obama White House to make immigration reform a priority -- this year. In a conference call, Bishop Jaime Soto of Sacramento said that the meeting will tell them whether the White House is serious about enacting comprehensive immigration reform or whether it's timid. "Delaying immigration reform will be a mistake," he said, arguing that the country can no longer accept the status quo. The event is a reminder of how this issue has become so difficult for members of both parties. The president won Latinos 2 to 1, has powerful Democratic majorities, and yet admits he might not have the votes to pass comprehensive immigration reform. After today, will Obama use his political capital to make immigration reform happen this year or next?

*** Add energy to the mix, too: Also on the agenda is the issue of energy. As NBC's Mike Viqueira reported last night, the House is now on course to take up its energy bill on Friday, after a deal was struck between Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the chairman of the Agriculture Committee, Colin Peterson. The pair appeared at a press conference to announce their agreement. Peterson, Viq notes, had been an influential holdout as he sought the best possible deal for farmers. And today, Pelosi, other Dem leaders, and Al Gore will appear at a press rally at 2:00 pm ET.

*** The rest of Obama's day: In addition to his meeting on immigration, Obama (along with the first lady) participates in a service event at 10:00 am ET at Fort McNair. Per the White House, they will "join hundreds of congressional family members and five national nonprofit organizations … to prepare 15,000 backpacks with books, healthy snacks, frisbees and other items for the children of servicemen and women." In the evening, the First Couple and Vice President Biden will host a luau on the South Lawn for members of Congress and their families. One other item on today's agenda: Biden and Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood will announce that states have already met the goal of obligating 50% of the highway funds in the stimulus by the June 29 deadline.

***

Bernanke's tough day? It could get ugly at a House committee hearing today featuring Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, and the markets could very well over-react to what happens in that hearing room. The issue of what role the government played in pushing Bank of America to buy Merrill Lynch is going to be front and center. And the criticism of the Republican-appointed Bernanke is going to come from Republicans, while Democrats may sit silent or quietly defend him. We'll see.

*** 2009 watch: And also on Capitol Hill today, New Jersey GOP gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie will appear at 11:00 a.m. ET before the Democratically-controlled House Judiciary Subcommittee on Commercial and Administrative Law to testify about million-dollar no-bid monitoring contracts he awarded while U.S. attorney. Per the Star-Ledger, the panel seeks to reform such "deferred prosecution agreements," like the one Christie gave his former boss John Ashcroft, "worth as much as $52 million," for monitoring a medical device maker Christie was investigating for Medicare fraud. Democrats are desperately hoping that something comes out of today's hearing to help the very vulnerable Jon Corzine.

Countdown to Election Day 2009: 131 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 495 days

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"Gov. Mark Sanford admitted Wednesday to an extramarital affair with a woman living in Argentina and to lying to South Carolinians to cover up his tryst -- then asked everyone, including his family, for forgiveness. The two-term S.C. Republican, a rising GOP star, fought tears during a news conference hours after a reporter from The State newspaper surprised him at the Atlanta airport on his way back from seeing the mother of two during Father's Day weekend."

The State newspaper also publishes e-mails it had received from an anonymous tipster months ago about an affair Sanford was having with a woman named Maria in Argentina. The paper chose not to publish the e-mails at the time, because it couldn't verify them.

Video: NBC's Mark Potter reports on the emergence of steamy e-mails between Sanford and the woman, identified as "Maria."

The New York Times says that Sanford's "confession and apology, in a rambling, nationally televised news conference, left other mysteries unsolved, like whether he had lied to his staff members as late as Monday about his whereabouts, whether the affair had definitively ended, whether he would resign from the governorship and whether he would even have acknowledged the affair had he not been met at the airport in Atlanta by a reporter upon his return."

We brainstormed and came up with a list of 20 political sex scandals since Bill Clinton in 1998, including 16 just since 2006.

More coverage… The New York Post: "Latin lover e-mails." And: "Runaway Gov: Cry for me, Argentina."

The New York Daily News: "Buenos Airhead" over Sanford wiping his eye. "Meet America's latest luv guv."

The repercussions for the GOP? "Any hopes that House and Senate Republican leaders had for going into the July Fourth recess next week on a high note were dealt a major setback Wednesday when South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) announced he was having an affair with a woman in Argentina," Roll Call writes. "Sanford's affair is just the latest in a series of ill-timed scandals and controversies involving high- profile Republicans that have helped undercut the efforts of party leaders to rebuild after two straight electoral losses and the repercussions of the Bush administration."

Dan Balz adds, "For a Republican Party down on its luck, the governor's disappearance and subsequent rambling apology to his wife, his family, his close friends and all the people of South Carolina draw more unwelcome publicity to a party that needs but cannot seem to get any good news."

More: "Some political strategists question how Republicans can get traction when two pillars of their message -- family values and fiscal rectitude -- have been undermined by errant politicians' transgressions, and by the collective failure of GOP leaders to control spending when they held the White House and Congress. 'If Republicans talk about family values, people will roll their eyes,' said Matthew Dowd, a onetime adviser to President George W. Bush who later broke with the president. Dowd said Obama's big budget deficits leave him and Democrats vulnerable on that issue, but he added, 'It's hard to say [voters are] going to trust Republicans on it.'"

The New York Times: "That it was the second such confession in little more than a week from a potential Republican presidential contender — Mr. Ensign had been exploring a run in 2012 as well — left party leaders dazed. They spent Wednesday alternating between gallows humor and yet another round of conversations about what the party stands for and who will give it its best shot to retake the White House."

In its write-up of last night's forum on health care, the AP leads with Obama leaving the door open to taxing health care benefits. "The prime-time program was the latest in a string of events designed to build public support for his plan to slow the rise in health care costs and expand coverage to the nearly 50 million uninsured."

The Hill saw Obama as trying to reassure the middle class.

Video: Rep. Loretta Sanchez, D-Calif., discusses the actions President Barack Obama needs to take in order to ensure both Democratic and Republican congressional leaders will approve his health care plan.

The Boston Globe: "The hour-long ABC special reminded viewers of the sheer vastness of the legislative project now before Congress. In a single bill, lawmakers will attempt to regulate wasteful end-of-life spending, send more primary care doctors to medical school, prevent kids from getting fat, pay doctors in a more sensible way, eliminate inefficient treatments and cover 46 million uninsured Americans. Without increasing the deficit." More: "Obama was also forced to address one of the most difficult political obstacles he will have to confront: Americans' fear that changing in how healthcare is delivered could do more harm than good."

Per NBC's Luke Russert, House Republicans continued to blame the media yesterday, going so far as to create a group called the Media Fairness Caucus, urging the networks in particular to "argue on behalf of the American people." Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX) again accused the broadcast media of having a liberal bias and used the podium to preemptively attack ABC for its health-care forum -- something the Republican National Committee and House Republicans have done for the past two weeks. "I would challenge them to devote a day to the other side" of the health care debate, said Phil Gingrey (R-GA). Smith added, "Various objective studies have shown that Fox is the one that comes closest to interviewing both sides."

Time magazine's cover: "WHAT BARACK OBAMA CAN LEARN FROM F.D.R."

It includes an essay from Bill Clinton: "Roosevelt also knew that in a highly dynamic time like his -- or the one we're in now -- you have to do a lot more than one thing at a time. I was often criticized, just as President Obama is now, for trying to do too many things at once. Roosevelt understood that in a complex and perilous situation, you have to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time, and he was masterly in doing a variety of difficult things simultaneously... I thought of both Roosevelts when I told Americans that we needed a new social contract for the 21st century, one that would keep us moving toward a 'more perfect union' in a highly interdependent, complex, ever changing world. That is the challenge Obama has inherited. I believe he will succeed in his efforts at economic recovery, health-care reform and taking big steps on climate change. Along the way, I hope he will be inspired by F.D.R.'s concern for all Americans, his relentless optimism, his penchant for experimentation, his relish for spirited debate among brilliant advisers and his unshakable faith in the promise of America."