From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The U.S. Senate is expected to pass its version of the stimulus bill this week. Then it heads to the joint House and Senate conference for final approval.

But none of it has been easy.

Video: Speaking to a town hall in Elkhart, In, President Obama tells the audience that while his recovery plan may not be perfect, Congress needs to act before the economy worsens.

Democrats lost the public relations war and control of the message, allowing inflammatory items like contraceptives, sexually transmitted disease prevention and sod for the National Mall to dominate the conversation.The bill's passage has also been complicated by President Obama's nominee tax problems, culminating in his prime-time round of apologies.

All of it has Democratic strategists privately furious. But politically, none of it may matter a week from now for the President.

"In the end if it works like it looks like it might -- which means it goes through with 60-plus votes, and works out some kinks [in the package] for a sizable majority in both houses -- and it is signed into law, a week from now the basic story will be huge victory for Barack Obama," said Norm Ornstein, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. "It will be the largest economic package passed in the history of the country, with unprecedented quick action and probably bipartisan support. That will be huge for him."

What the bumpy ride provides is four lessons are for this administration: (1) The little things count -- They're what got you here; (2) Use the bully pulpit -- and frame what you're doing; (3) Want the ball -- Maintain more control over legislation; (4) Reality check -- Are Republicans really your friends?

CLICK FOR MORE

From NBC's Mark Murray

The White House just announced that Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) -- once thought to be one of John McCain's VP possibilities -- will introduce President Obama at tomorrow's town hall in Fort Myers, FL.

The statement from Obama: "I look forward to traveling to Fort Myers tomorrow to talk to Floridians about how we get our nation's economy back on track. Gov. Crist and I have seen firsthand the toll that this economic crisis has taken on the American people, and we agree that we can't allow politics to get in the way of urgent relief for the millions of families and small businesses that need it."

Crist's statement: "Florida has taken prudent steps to cut taxes for our people and balance our budget in these increasingly difficult times. Any attempts at federal stimulus must prioritize job creation and targeted tax relief for small business owners. I am eager to welcome President Obama to the Sunshine State as he continues to work hard to reignite the US economy."

From NBC's Pete Williams

We're not likely to hear any further updates on Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg until she's released from the New York hospital where she had surgery last week for pancreatic cancer.

Her doctor initially said she'd be in the hospital for 7 to 10 days, so we might hear something more Thursday or Friday.

Those familiar with her condition say she is making some phone calls and is "progressing" with her recovery.

From NBC's Chuck Todd
ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE -- Three write-ups in one: Headlines: POTUS comes back to press area, mostly about Camp David; Axelrod gives a quick poll briefing; Gibbs does a gaggle, notes an addition to the schedule, a Thursday trip to Springfield now has a stop in Peoria, Ill., where the president will visit a Caterpillar facility.

So will we see the "How's it playin' in Peoria" headlines galore by Thursday?

Obama meets the press
At 10:04 am ET, 11 minutes into the flight, a coatless president came back to the press part of Air Force One to say hi, scrambling all of your friendly multi-platform reporters.

It was a "nicer ride," he noted from the days of the campaign.

A few questions were asked about how he liked Camp David, where he was over the weekend. It was his first trip there as president.

"You can see during the summer, it is going to be a nice time," Obama said of the presidential retreat.

He added that he looked forward to being able to hit a few golf balls there and maybe playing some basketball.

He noted that daughter Sasha brought a friend, and they had a good time. He also noted that a friend of Michelle's also came and brought her two kids. "So it was nice," he said.

Axelrod briefs on polling
Senior adviser David Axelrod, sans coat as well, came back around 10:20, gloating about the new Gallup poll, a printout he had rolled up in his hand.

He said there was "strong support for this. The Gallup poll this morning reflects everything I've seen the last couple of weeks. … One thing we learned over two years, there is a whole different conversation" being had outside of Washington.

Of the American public, he said, "They aren't sweating the details" of what's in the bill or what isn't. He added, "We've got a good plan to deal with a deep crisis. The American people support it. We are urging everyone in Congress to catch up with the American people."

Gibbs' gaggle
Robert Gibbs came back at about 10:35 for questions for about 15 minutes.

Gibbs quoted their private polling and stressed that it comports with public polling. (The polling, he said he believes, is done by Joel Benenson and paid for by DNC)

"Public polling is ahead of where cable TV is" in terms of conventional wisdom that is going on in Wash vs. the "reality in America," he said. He added, "This is not explaining to Indiana what is going on in Washington; this is explaining to Washington what is going on in Indiana and other places."

Other notable answers: Gibbs played down the need for bipartisan support: "I don't think they [the public] are worried about the final score," referring to the ultimate vote count.

Gibbs joked that with today's town hall in Elkhart, he'd get a chance to compare the public's questions with the press at the prime time news conference tonight.

Also of note, Gibbs confirmed that the president would tack on a stop in Peoria, Ill., before heading to Springfield, Ill., on Thursday.

While most of the gaggle was on the stimulus, there was one question about Russia and Biden's comments on where things stand regarding the missile defense shield.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Back on the road: With the Senate voting on the Nelson-Collins stimulus compromise at 5:30 pm ET today (it requires 60 votes to pass) and with the final Senate vote on the stimulus coming around noon tomorrow, President Obama returns to the campaign trail to help sell his plan. At 12:05 pm, he holds a town hall in Elkhart, Ind., where the unemployment rate has jumped up to 15.3%. After that, he travels back to the White House for his first primetime news conference as president, which will take place at 8:00 pm. And then tomorrow, he goes back on the road for another town hall, this one in Fort Myers, FL. Why is Obama hitting the trail? The New York Times has this nugget: "A collection of private and public polls, as well as focus groups convened by Democratic strategists, showed that the public's support for the economic recovery package was eroding as Republicans intensified their criticism of the plan. So advisers to the president told him he had no choice but to fire up Air Force One and return to a mode of campaigning that helped him win the presidency." By the way, per NBC's Athena Jones, here are the current and ex-lawmakers traveling with Obama to Indiana: Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood (R), Sen. Evan Bayh (D), Rep. Joe Donnelly (D), Rep. Baron Hill (D), Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D), Rep. Fred Upton (R), Rep. Andre Carson (D), former Rep. Tim Roemer (D), and former Rep. Lee Hamilton (D). The big omission: GOP Sen. Dick Lugar.  

***

Where's the eye of the tiger? As Obama hits the road today, political observers -- including some Democrats -- are asking themselves how the Obama White House and the Democratic committees allowed themselves to get worked over by the Republicans, much like Rocky got clobbered by Mr. T's Clubber Lang in their first fight after Rocky had become the champ. For instance, how did a Republican Party that had turned a budget surplus into a projected trillion-dollar deficit get away with becoming paragons of fiscal responsibility? "I can't believe we got lectured by Republicans on fiscal policy," one Democratic strategist told First Read. How did the party, when the RNC was blasting out emails about Hilda Solis' husband's tax problems, not aggressively fire back that the wife of the GOP presidential nominee also failed to pay back taxes? And why didn't the party pounce on NRCC chairman Pete Sessions comparing the Republican Party's insurgency to the Taliban's? "I don't get it," griped another Democrat. Time for Apollo Creed to help the champ get his mojo back?

Video: Obama takes his policies to the public, in his first prime-time news conference. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.

*** Hyperbole watch: While the Republicans certainly have bruised Obama during this stimulus debate, much of their rhetoric seems pretty overheated, no? "We're going down a road to disaster," said Sen. Richard C. Shelby. Then there's this line, courtesy of the Washington Post, from RNC chairman Michael Steele: "You and I know that in the history of mankind and womankind, government -- federal, state or local -- has never created one job. It's destroyed a lot of them." Huh? And John McCain called the stimulus "generational theft." Republicans might be concerned that the stimulus' price tag is too high, but has some of their rhetoric gone a bit too far? Most mainstream economists, as well as anyone who took Macroeconomics 101 in college, doesn't view demand-side spending -- especially with the specter of deflation looming -- as a "disaster" or "generational theft." Also, just askin': With Obama's aggressive courtship of Republicans (meeting with them in private, having them over to the White House for cocktails, appointing three of them to his cabinet), did anyone think that just three Republicans (Collins, Snowe, Specter) out of 219 GOP senators and congressman would so far support the stimulus? 

*** Another short honeymoon? Speaking of Michael Steele, the new RNC chairman might end up having a short honeymoon. Over the weekend, the Washington Post first reported that Steele's 2006 Senate campaign gave his sister's company more than $37,000, months after that company became defunct. "Campaign records indicate that $37,262 paid to Brown Sugar Unlimited covered catering and Web services. But it came 11 months after [Steele's sister] … had legally dissolved the company… On Friday, a spokesman for Steele provided a receipt for catering costs totaling almost $15,000 for two events, about half the total. The spokesman said they were searching for receipts to document the rest." 

*** TARP II, delayed a day: Trying to keep today's focus on the stimulus, the Treasury Department announced yesterday that it would delay the release of the administration's financial stabilization plan until Tuesday. Given this delay, expect a lot more leaks today about what Geithner might unveil tomorrow. One piece of good news for those in Congress: It appears that Obama and Geithner will NOT be immediately asking for more money; in fact, private money will play more of a role than was rumored a few weeks ago. "Administration officials said the plan … was likely to depend in part on the willingness of private investors other than banks -- like hedge funds, private equity funds and perhaps even insurance companies -- to buy the contaminating assets that wiped out the capital of many banks," the Times writes. 

Countdown to NJ GOP primary: 113 days
Countdown to VA Dem primary: 120 days
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 267 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 631 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails. 
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.

Politico says the stimulus debate has risks for Obama -- but also for the Republicans. "The risks for Obama are considerable. He and the Democrats will have no one else to blame if the package fails to boost the economy. Obama himself has said his first term can be judged on whether it succeeds, whether it creates or saves the 3 million to 4 million jobs he promises. And if the economy fails to show marked signs of improvement -- a possibility indeed -- Republicans will have a megabillion-dollar 'I told you so' in their pockets, just in time for the 2010 midterm elections and Obama's own reelection bid in 2012."

More: "Yet Republicans are gambling themselves -- and perhaps with even higher stakes. Still seeking a way forward from their Election Day thumping, they risk appearing out of touch as the unemployment rate jumps to 7.6 percent and a popular new president is appearing to seek their support to address the crisis. By turning their backs on him and opposing action at a time when millions of Americans are in need, they may invite a 'party of no' bull's-eye on their backs."

A new Gallup poll provides some good news for Obama, though. "The American public gives President Barack Obama a strong 67% approval rating for the way in which he is handling the government's efforts to pass an economic stimulus bill, while the Democrats and, in particular, the Republicans in Congress receive much lower approval ratings of 48% and 31%, respectively."

And: "The new Gallup Poll shows that a majority of Americans (51%) say passing a new economic stimulus plan is 'critically important' for improving the nation's economy, while another 29% say it is important. Only 16% say it is 'not that important.'" (But if the numbers are this good, then why is Team Obama stepping on the gas? White House officials will say it's a chance to bring America's problems to Washington's attention. But the cynics will say they're seeing something in the numbers that concerns them.) 

The New York Times previews Obama's trip to Indiana, as well as his primetime address tonight. "On Monday night, Mr. Obama will address the nation for the first time in a prime-time appearance from the East Room of the White House and make his argument for why the economic bill is necessary. When he does, aides said, he will recount his visit earlier in the day to Elkhart, Ind., a city he visited twice during the presidential race that has seen its unemployment rate rise to 15.3 percent, largely because of layoffs in the recreational vehicle industry." 

The Hill table-sets Obama's week: "President Obama is headed into one of the first critical weeks of his presidency as he pushes a fiscal stimulus plan he believes will start to dig the economy out of recession and rebrands a highly unpopular bailout package to support the financial world. The roughly $800 billion stimulus plan and his efforts this week to redesign how the remaining $350 billion of the financial bailout package is used will go a long way toward crafting his vision of how the federal government aims to prop up the economy in the coming months and year. And in the course, Obama will be in effect laying out a broader model of how his presidency intends to use the government's resources to get the private sector back on track." 
 
The AP: "President Obama plunges into a difficult test of his leadership this week, struggling to get a divided Congress to agree on his economic recovery package while pitching a new plan to ease loans to consumers and businesses."

So stimulus is the easy part? The New York Times writes, "The stimulus package is the easiest element of the solution to understand, and the easiest to sell politically: just about every member of Congress can go home and explain how it benefits constituents. But as Mr. Geithner and his team have discovered as they try to put together the bank bailout, the politics are running against them. Bankers have become symbols of excess and greed, making the politics of pouring more money into propping up Wall Street and the financial system that much trickier."

The Wall Street Journal: Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is expected to announce that the government will become a partner with the private sector to purchase banks' troubled assets, according to people familiar with the matter. The plan for a so-called aggregator bank, a variation on a theme that Obama administration officials have wrestled with for weeks, is among four main components of Mr. Geithner's bailout revamp, which he is expected to announce Tuesday."

Turning to Obama's international agenda, Richard Holbrooke will be making his first stop in Pakistan in his new role as special envoy to the region. And Holbrooke sure knows how to make headlines "In a nuclear-armed nation regarded as an ally of the United States and considered pivotal by the Obama administration to ending the war in neighboring Afghanistan, Mr. Holbrooke will face a surge of anti-American sentiment on clear display by private citizens, public officials and increasingly potent television talk shows."

"Some remedies offered by his hosts are likely to be unappealing. On almost every front, Pakistani leaders are calling for less American involvement, or at least the appearance of it. The main reason for the swell in resentment here is the very strategy that the United States government considers its prime success against Al Qaeda: missile strikes delivered by remotely piloted aircraft against militants in Pakistan's tribal areas."

The Senate convenes today at 1:00 pm ET with a significant procedural vote on the revamped compromise stimulus package at 5:30 pm, NBC's Ken Strickland says. While only procedural in nature, today's vote will be the first and formal test that the Nelson-Collins alternative has the 60 votes needed for final passage. This new bill cuts more than $100 billion from the original Senate version. The final vote is scheduled for Tuesday about noon, with 60 votes required for passage.

Strick adds that today's vote will also be an indication of any new Republican support. So far only GOP moderate Senators Collins, Specter, and Snowe have publicly voiced support. Still, those three votes along with 58 Democrats bring the tally to 61. When the deal was struck Friday, negotiators touted the new reduced total cost at $780 billion. But because $47 billion worth of amendments had been passed during last week's debate for things like tax relief for home and car buyers, the package is now priced about $827 billion. (That's $7 billion more than the House passed bill.)

The New York Times notes the differences between the House and Senate stimulus bills. "While the bills have many of the same elements, the exact amounts spent on similar items and programs vary. The House version provides $40 billion more in aid to local governments and is slightly more generous with a middle-class tax credit, while the Senate bill offers tax incentives for home and car purchases." 

The Washington Post writes that congressional Republicans see their opposition to the stimulus as a way to revitalize the party. "The fact that the stimulus legislation keeps moving forward nonetheless has done nothing to dim Republicans' satisfaction. Rather, they sense a tactical victory, particularly in the framing of their opposition to the plan as a clash with congressional Democrats instead of with President Obama, who remains far more popular with voters than does Congress. Republicans are holding congressional Democrats responsible for the wasteful spending they say is in the stimulus package, even though most of the big-ticket items -- for renewable energy, health care and schools -- are ones that Obama wanted in the package to advance his long-term goals."  

Paul Krugman isn't a fan of the Collins-Nelson-Snowe-Specter compromise. "What do you call someone who eliminates hundreds of thousands of American jobs, deprives millions of adequate health care and nutrition, undermines schools, but offers a $15,000 bonus to affluent people who flip their houses? A proud centrist. For that is what the senators who ended up calling the tune on the stimulus bill just accomplished."

But in a Washington Post op-ed, Specter makes his case for crossing party lines to support the stimulus. "'In politics,' John Kennedy used to say, 'nobody gets everything, nobody gets nothing and everybody gets something.' My colleagues and I have tried to balance the concerns of both left and right with the need to act quickly for the sake of our country. The moderates' compromise, which faces a cloture vote today, is the only bill with a reasonable chance of passage in the Senate."

Stu Rothenberg reflects on the past two weeks: "Either Congressional Democrats went from undeniably brilliant to unbelievably inept in just a few weeks, or being in the majority in Congress isn't nearly as easy as being the opposition… I'll cast my vote for the second alternative." But, he says, Democrats shouldn't overreact… Even with all of their party's recent stumbles, the president and Congressional Democrats will end up looking pretty good if the economy rebounds and Americans start to feel better about things. It's the results that matter, even if the process was part stumbling and part bumbling."

On Meet the Press yesterday, Sen. John Ensign called the stimulus package the result of "one-party rule." He definitively said the stimulus will have the same effect it did in Japan -- none -- particularly because Democrats are going to let the Bush tax cuts expire, effectively raising taxes, as they did in Japan. He later huffed, "This is--this is almost $1 trillion. You don't get do-overs with $1 trillion.  If you get this thing wrong, $1 trillion isn't like, "Well, we did it wrong, we'll try it again." A trillion dollars..." He later dismissed the prospect that cops and firemen will be laid off if the stimulus isn't passed as Democratic "fearmongering."
 
Mike Pence boasted on Meet the Press that "support for this stimulus bill is collapsing by the hour. The American people know we can't borrow and spend and bail our way back to a growing economy. This bill--the only thing this bill's going to stimulate is more government and more debt." The "centerpiece" of the bill, he said, is spending and "the American people are tired of it."

On Face the Nation, John McCain called the stimulus "generational theft." "I think this can only be described as generational theft. What we are doing is amassing multi-trillions of dollars," he said. He wasn't done there. Asked if he could support the measure, he said, "Well, I can't, Bob. And I can't because I think it's the greatest transfer of not only spending but authority and responsibility to government. I think it's a massive -- it's much larger than any measure that was taken during the Great Depression. I think it has policy changes in it which are fundamentally bad for America."
 
He even made a direct comparison of the Obama administration to Bush's. "[T]hat's the way the Bush administration, when we Republicans were in charge -- that's the way we did business. But I thought we were going to have change. And that change meant we work together. This is a setback. This is a setback for all Americans, in my view, because we promised, all of us, that we would work in a more bipartisan, inclusive fashion." 
 
Obama's top economic adviser, Larry Summers, though said, " 'Those who presided over the last eight years, don't seem to be in a strong position to lecture about the lessons of history.'"

Over the weekend, all three Democratic contenders for Virginia governor -- Creigh Deeds, Terry McAuliffe, Brian Moran -- addressed the VA Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Richmond. "Although this is his first run for elective office, McAuliffe, former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, put on quite a show downtown before the dinner began: He brought in three busloads of supporters, and Richmond police shut down the street in front of the convention center so he and about 100 people could parade," the Washington Post reported.

More: "During his remarks, Moran sought to define the contest as one between two men with deep ties to Virginia politics -- him and Deeds -- and McAuliffe. In a hard-hitting speech, Moran took repeated swipes at McAuliffe without mentioning him by name, suggesting that he was an outsider who would lead the party to defeat in November if he were the Democratic nominee. 'We must decide what our party stands for,' Moran said. 'Will our party be built from the bottom up or from the top down? Will our party be about public service or personal gain? Will our party be dominated by big money or those who raise it?'" 

Meanwhile, "Deeds, who was the Democratic nominee for attorney general in 2005, used his speech to try to position himself as an alternative to McAuliffe and Moran. 'If you want a nominee who is part of that corporate CEO culture, then I'm not the candidate for you,' said Deeds, who says he will fight for the middle class. If you want a nominee who is part of the partisan bickering that has paralyzed our nation for far too long, then I'm not your guy.'"

Bill Clinton delivered the keynote speech at the JJ Dinner. He "told Virginia Democrats Saturday that the party has won America's long-running culture war but has to make sure not to squander it with partisanship." 

ARIZONA: Top-target watch: "Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-Ariz.) could have a rematch in 2010, as former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert (R) has filed to challenge him. Schweikert was heralded as a top GOP recruit last year, but lost 53-44 after a brutal primary." 
 
NEW MEXICO: Iceman for governor? "Val Kilmer is pondering running for governor of New Mexico in 2010, when Democrat Bill Richardson's second term ends. 'I'm just looking for ways to be contributive,' Kilmer told The Associated Press on Thursday. 'And if that ends up being where I can make a substantial contribution, then I'll run.'" The decision, though, is 'really day to day,' he said over tea at a local restaurant."
 
NEW YORK: The first poll in the race to succeed Kirsten Gillibrand has Republican Jim Tedisco leading Democrat Scott Murphy by a wide margin, 50%-29%. The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the Republican. Tedisco, a longtime state legislator, is found to be much more widely known and starts out with the advantage. 
 
OHIO: Rep. Steve Chabot (R) is jumping in for a rematch against "the man unseated him in 2008, freshman Rep. Steve Driehaus (D)."

From NBC's Mark Murray
First Read got its hands on the email and video that Organizing for America -- the Obama campaign offshoot that's housed inside the Democratic National Committee -- is sending to the individuals who are hosting the 3,300 meetings across the country on the economic stimulus.

Here's the video from new DNC chairman Tim Kaine:

[Youtube:BP9ZOQ5gIYw]

Here's the email:
"Governor Tim Kaine just recorded a video answering your questions about the President's economic recovery plan and how it will affect your community.

"Please show this video during your Economic Recovery House Meeting, then encourage your guests to ask their own questions and share their personal stories.

"Don't forget to gather stories and questions from your guests -- they will be featured on BarackObama.com to tell the story of the economic crisis, and our recovery.

"And if you haven't already, be sure to check out the House Meeting Host Guide for tips on how to collect stories and make your meeting a success.

"Thank you for being a part of this important event,

Organizing for America."

From NBC's Ken Strickland
The bipartisan negotiators who've been working to cut at least $100 billion from the stimulus package have reached an agreement among themselves over how much to cut. The new cost of the package would be $780 billion -- down from more than $900 billion now.

Right now, Senate Majority Leader Reid is discussing this "tentative deal" with his Democratic members, hoping all of them will support it. 

If so, the amendment will go to a floor for a vote, and likely pass. 

THIS DOES NOT MEAN the package has passed the Senate. But it is a significant hurdle that dramatically lowers the cost of the bill and clears the way for final passage.

We still don't know when final passage will happen.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Here's the state of play at the moment ... more negotiations.

Everything seems to be revolving around the Nelson-Collins proposal to cut $100 billion from the stimulus bill and mustering enough Republican support to get the 60 votes needed to pass it.  

The Nelson-Collins gang presented their proposal to Majority Leader Harry Reid.  Reid has made a counter proposal to Republicans.

GOP Sens. Susan Collins and Arlen Specter will take Reid's offer to their Republican members so see if there's enough support to pass it.

That's where we are.

From NBC's Athena Jones

At an event today to announce the members of his Economic Recovery Advisory Board, President Obama highlighted the latest jobs numbers and kept up his campaign-style rhetoric Friday, urging quick passage of the stimulus bill.

Echoing a statement his team put out this morning after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported some 598,000 jobs were lost in January and unemployment rose to 7.6%, Obama said that the data demonstrated the urgency of the situation, and that it was inexcusable and irresponsible for Congress to get bogged down in distraction, delay, or politics as usual at this time.

"The American people did not choose more of the same," he said. "They did not send us to Washington to get stuck in partisan posturing, to try to score political points or to turn back to the same tried and failed approaches that were rejected because we saw the results. They sent us here to make change and the expectation that we would act."

He said that while the bill before Congress was not perfect, it was "absolutely necessary" and would continue to be refined and improved.

The purpose of the advisory board, which Obama announced plans for during his transition, is to offer the president independent advice about how to ensure a strong economic recovery from outside of what the president called the "Washington echo chamber." It will initially have a two-year term.

Paul Volcker will serve as chairman of the board and Austan Goolsbee is its staff director and chief economist. Among the board's members: former SEC Chairman William H. Donaldson; TIAA-CREF President Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; UBS CEO Robert Wolf; David F. Swensen the CIO of Yale University; Pritzker Realty's Penny Pritzker, who is a close Obama friend from Chicago; General Electric CEO Jeffrey Immelt; Caterpillar CEO Jim Owens; La Opinion Publisher Monica Lozano; Change to Win's Anna Burger; and Laura D'Andrea Tyson, dean of the University of California at Berkeley's Haas School of Business.

Harvard professor Martin Feldstein, an adviser to President Reagan and proponent of supply-side economics, is also on the board. Feldstein wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post last week that was pro-stimulus, but that also criticized the form of the tax cuts in the package. Feldstein said the spending in it would not do enough to boost employment.

"The problem with the current stimulus plan is not that it is too big but that it delivers too little extra employment and income for such a large fiscal deficit. It is worth taking the time to get it right," he wrote.

Feldstein could be seen as a representative of the "failed theories" of the past that Obama railed against on the campaign trail and in his increasingly tough language this week -- proof that the president wants different voices at the table.

"I'm not interested in groupthink, which is why the board reflects a broad cross-section of experience, expertise, and ideology," the president said, adding that the group included Republicans and Democrats, people from government as well as the private sector and advocates of business and labor.

"Not everyone is going to agree with each other, and not all of them are going to agree with me -- and that's precisely the point. Because we want to ensure that our policies have the benefit of independent thought and vigorous debate."

From NBC's Athena Jones
On Monday, per White House press secretary Robert Gibbs, President Obama will travel to Elkhart, IN for a town hall meeting about his stimulus plan. And he'll hit another town hall in Fort Myers, FL on Tuesday. Both cities are hard hit by unemployment.

In addition, he'll make a day trip to Springfield, IL on Thursday to celebrate Lincoln's birthday.

And Gibbs said that the Obama family heads to Camp David this weekend -- for the first time.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Negotiations on the Nelson-Collins amendment to cut about $100 billion from the economic stimulus package are complete. The bipartisan group negotiating it has reached agreement on what items should be cut, according Sen. Ben Nelson, the group leading Democrat.

But Nelson says he's shy two Republican votes to ensure the amendment's passage. "The hope is we'll pick up two more Republicans, and if we're able to do that then I think we'll have sufficient numbers to get a vote and pass the alternative," Nelson said walking into a meeting with Democratic leaders.

Video: MSNBC's Chris Matthews appears on Morning Joe to discuss the chances for bipartisanship with the stimulus plan.

Walking into that same meeting was Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill, also part of the Nelson-Collins bipartisan group. She mentioned two of the major GOP concerns about the stimulus bill: the cost and the composition. 

As it relates to composition, she says some Republicans are against the notion of having the federal government taking on responsibilities that historically were done by the states. "They're not arguing that they're stimulative. They're not arguing that they're needed. They're arguing about the precedent we're setting of the federal government beginning to do things like school construction."

*** UPDATE *** Here's the state of play at the moment... more negotiations.

Everything seems to be revolving around the Nelson-Collins proposal to cut $100 billion from the stimulus bill and mustering enough Republican support to get the 60 votes needed to pass it.  

The Nelson-Collins gang presented their proposal to Majority Leader Harry Reid. Reid has made a counter proposal to Republicans. Republicans Collins and Arlen Specter will take Reid's offer to their Republican members to see if there's enough support to pass it.

That's where we are.

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Vice President Biden will not leaving for Munich straight from Williamsburg, VA as originially planned, according to White House sources. He's now coming back to DC to help with last-minute sales pitches for the stimulus plan.

*** UPDATE *** Per NBC's Savannah Guthrie: Biden IS GOING straight to Munich, after all. There was some confusion, but here is the deal... According to White House sources, there was some discussion of keeping Biden here until Senate vote was done. However, they've now decided to have Biden travel on to Munich as planned.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
President Obama's going to be announcing his economic advisory board headed by Paul Volcker. The White House release just went out with background and history of what the group has done and will be expected to do.

Per the release it is "modeled on the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board created by President Dwight D. Eisenhower...." and "will provide an independent voice on" the economy.

Video: Obama introduces economic advisory board.

The board will remain in tact for at least two years.

Members of the board to be announced: Austan Goolsbee as staff director and chief economist; William H. Donaldson, SEC Chair, 2003-05; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., president and CEO, TIAA-CREF; Robert Wolf, chairman and CEO, UBS; David F. Swensen, CIO, Yale University; Mark T. Gallogly, founder and managing partner, Centerbridge Partners L.P.; Penny Pritzker, chairwoman, Pritzker Realty Group; Jeffrey R. Immelt, CEO, GE (parent company of NBC News); John Doerr, partner at Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers; Jim Owens, chairman and CEO, Caterpillar Inc.; Monica C. Lozano, publisher & chief executive officer, La Opinion; Charles E. Phillips, Jr., president, Oracle; Anna Burger, chairwoman, Change to Win; Richard L. Trumka, secretary-treasurer, AFL-CIO; Laura D'Andrea Tyson, dean, Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley; Martin Feldstein, professor of Economics, Harvard.

*** UPDATE *** NBC's Athena Jones has more from the announcement...
President Obama highlighted the latest jobs numbers and kept up his campaign-style rhetoric, urging quick passage of the stimulus bill at an event to announce the members of his Economic Recovery Advisory Board.

Echoing a statement his team put out this morning after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported some 598,000 jobs were lost in January and unemployment rose to 7.6 percent, Obama said the data demonstrated the urgency of the situation and that it was inexcusable and irresponsible for Congress to get bogged down in distraction, delay or politics as usual at this time.

"The American people did not choose more of the same," he said. "They did not send us to Washington to get stuck in partisan posturing, to try to score politcal points or to turn back to the same tried and failed approaches that were rejected because we saw the results. They sent us here to make change and the expectation that we would act."

He said that while the bill before Congress was not perfect, it was "absolutely necessary" and would continue to be refined and improved.

The purpose of the advisory board, which Obama announced plans for during the transition, is to offer the president independent advice about how to ensure a strong economic recovery from outside of what the president called the "Washington echo chamber." It will initially have a two-year term.

Harvard Prof. Martin Feldstein, an adviser to Pres. Reagan and a proponent of the so-called "trickle down" approach to the economy that advocated for tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, is also on the board. Feldstein wrote an Op-Ed in The Washington Post last week that was pro-stimulus but that criticized the form of the tax cuts in the package and said the spending in it would not do enough to boost employment.

"The problem with the current stimulus plan is not that it is too big but that it delivers too little extra employment and income for such a large fiscal deficit. It is worth taking the time to get it right," he wrote.

Feldstein could be seen as a representative of the "failed theories" of the past that Obama railed against on the campaign trail and in his increasingly tough language this week -- proof that the president wants different voices at the table.

"I'm not interested in groupthink, which is why the board reflects a broad cross-section of experience, expertise, and ideology," the president said, adding that the group included Republicans and Democrats, people from government as well as the private sector and advocates of business and labor. "Not everyone is going to agree with each other, and not all of them are going to agree with me - and that's precisely the point. Because we want to ensure that our policies have the benefit of independent thought and vigorous debate."

From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
Leon Panetta's confirmation hearing to head the CIA continues, and today the top Republican -- retiring Sen. Kit Bond -- forced Panetta to back down and retract his statement from yesterday that the U.S. had transported suspects to other countries to be tortured.
 
That has been alleged by suspects, and was the topic of a New York Times editorial yesterday, but the CIA has consistently denied it. Carrying the water for the agency that Panetta wants to lead, Bond confronted Panetta and demanded what proof he had beyond "liberal blogs" and media reports.

Panetta was forced to retreat, even though President Obama has signed executive orders specifically aimed at ending the widely reported -- and widely substantiated -- practice during the Bush years

Overnight, there was a lot of pushback from the agency -- officials were not happy yesterday as they watched the CIA nominee take such a critical position on torture and interrogation, arguably the most volatile legal and moral issue facing the agencies.

Click here for more information on Panetta's remarks and confirmation hearing.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
A Republican senator in the bipartisan working group tells me they're optimistic there will be deal today over the items members would agree to cut. Then they would present the deal to the full Senate for a vote. 

That vote would be in the form of an amendment to the stimulus bill. (This member, who obviously didn't want to be identified, also said they're not sure they'll support it in the end.)

The senator also said the bipartisan agreement would probably not include as many GOP members that initially started in the discussions. In other words, there are probably some cuts that some GOP participants cannot support.

On the Democratic side, Sen. Dick Durbin told a handful of reporters moments ago that some of those proposed cuts would be "painful" for Democrats in the area of education and money to states. This raises the question of just how many Democrats would support amendment.

And remember this: The cost of this Senate version is now grown to about $920 billion. If the Nelson/Collins compromise cuts were accepted, it would drop the cost to about $820 billion. That's just about the same cost as the House-passed version, for which not a single Republican voted.

Stay tuned.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Fired up: The Senate is still working on the stimulus bill. The unemployment rate is now 7.6% (with nearly 600,000 jobs lost in January, the most in more than 30 years). And President Barack Obama is definitely fired up.

Video: Obama speaks at the retreat for House Democrats.

Often straying from his prepared remarks at last night's House Democratic retreat, Obama called out Republicans for not reciprocating his bipartisan overtures, and he reminded the country who's to blame for the current state of the economy, Politico writes. "'When you start hearing arguments, on the cable chatter, just understand a couple of things,' he said. 'No. 1, when they say, "Well, why are we spending $800 billion [when] we've got this huge deficit?" -- first of all, I found this deficit when I showed up, No. 1. 'I found this national debt, doubled, wrapped in a big bow waiting for me as I stepped into the Oval Office.'" Politico adds, "After his remarks, Obama, clearly caught up in the moment, made the party get-together feel even more like a campaign rally with his signature call-and-response chant. 'Fired up?' he asked the Democratic lawmakers. 'Ready to go!' a group of them shouted back."

*** But ready to go? The question, of course, is whether the Senate -- and more importantly that working group of centrist lawmakers -- reaches an agreement on the stimulus legislation. Everything we're hearing and everything we know about Capitol Hill suggest that a bill will get out, either today or this weekend. NBC's Ken Strickland notes that if the stars of cooperation and compromise align, the vote could happen today, probably in the evening. The worst-case scenario: Majority Leader Reid uses procedural tools to force a final vote on Sunday. Reid & Co. maintain they have the 60 votes needed to pass the bill, with a handful of Republicans joining in support. GOP leadership aides privately concur, saying the vote total would be in the low to mid-60s. Yet they say the notion of passing this bill with "strong bipartisan support" has vanished. To get to the finish line, Reid and Minority Leader McConnell still have to figure out how many of the dozens of amendments floating out there will actually get votes. The more resistance they get from their members insisting that their amendment get a vote, the longer it takes, Strick adds. By the way, one reason why the Senate might get this done today: A few senators want to go to the Munich conference, where Vice President Biden heads today.

*** To filibuster or not to filibuster?

Another question here: Do McConnell and Senate Republicans try to filibuster the legislation? There is actually a good reason for McConnell not to force the Democrats to come up with 60 votes, but rather allow for a simple up-or-down vote. The talking point of little or no GOP support could be more effective in long term, and McConnell might keep more GOPers in line if he allows an up-down vote. Yet while most of the attention has focused on Obama and Democrats during this stimulus fight, Republicans are making a BIG gamble here by opposing the legislation. If the stimulus passes, if the economy starts to turn around in the next couple of years, and if the public blames Bush and the Republican Party for the nation's economic woes (including the 7.6% unemployment rate), this could be the '30s and '40s all over again for the GOP. Then again, as the opposition hoping to once again be the majority, this is probably their only card to play.

*** Labor strikes back: Obama isn't the only one fired up today. Organized labor is planning a major offensive to get Hilda Solis confirmed as Obama's Labor secretary. This comes after the news that Solis' husband "paid about $6,400 this week to settle numerous tax liens against his business dating to 1993." "Enough is enough, the gloves are coming off on Friday," an AFL-CIO official tells the Huffington Post. "Labor, women's groups, Hispanic groups are opening fire. We worked with Republicans in good faith. Hilda Solis has answered all their questions but they continue to oppose her for partisan ideological reasons." More from the AFL official: "Our full efforts are being mobilized to fight back. Earned media and field campaign to generate calls, letters, and emails coming tomorrow. Depending on how things move paid media will be added on top of these efforts." One thing about the Solis nomination: Remember that it was hurried a tad because the Obama transition folks needed to find more Hispanics to serve in the cabinet. And that's why her nomination will get defended to the end by the White House, barring something really bad popping up. After all, as things stand now, there are more Republicans in the Obama Cabinet than Hispanics.

*** GITMO politics: Obama today joins with Paul Volcker to unveil the members of the president's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, and we'll probably hear Obama discuss the bad jobs report and the stimulus bill. Then later today, Obama meets (closed to the press) with families and victims of 9/11 and the USS Cole bombing. This meeting comes after a report yesterday that Obama will likely order the Department of Defense's Military Commission to withdraw charges against Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, the mastermind of the Cole attack. But as NBC's Pete Williams points out, if the military decides to drop charges against al-Nashiri, that WOULD NOT MEAN that he's going anywhere. He would continue to be held at Guantanamo Bay as an enemy combatant, and the military could re-file charges against him at a later date. The reason for today's meeting with families and victimes, per the Washington Post: The White House "said in a statement that Obama 'wants to talk with these families about resolving the issues involved with closing Guantanamo Bay -- while keeping the safety and security of the American people as his top priority.'"

*** SCOTUS reminder: The news of Ruth Bader Ginsburg's pancreatic cancer is a reminder that Obama might have the opportunity to appoint two or three Supreme Court members in his first couple years in office. Some early names, per NBC's Pete Williams: Johnnie Rawlinson (9th Circuit Court of Appeals, African American woman), Leah Ward Sears, (chief justice of the Georgia Supreme Court, African American woman), Sonia Sotomayor (2nd Circuit Court of Appeals, Hispanic woman), Kim McLane Wardlaw, 9th Circuit, Hispanic woman), Diane Wood, (7th Circuit, woman, knows Obama from her time teaching at the University of Chicago), Jennifer Granholm (Michigan governor, woman), Merrick Garland, U.S. Court of Appeals, DC Circuit), Deval Patrick (Massachusetts governor, Obama friend), Cass Sunstein (University of Chicago law professor, Obama friend).

Countdown to NJ GOP primary: 116 days
Countdown to VA Dem primary: 123 days
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 270 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 634 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.

A stimulus vote was thought to perhaps come last night, but the Senate adjourned without passing anything "after a day of negotiations by a bipartisan group working to trim from it as much as $100 billion and fashion a compromise lean enough to win the Republican votes necessary for passage," the Boston Globe writes.

The Washington Post: "A bipartisan coalition of senators withheld support for President Obama's economic recovery package yesterday, leaving the scope and timing of his first major initiative in doubt as they sought to cut more than $100 billion from the legislation. Despite growing concerns from Republicans and Democrats about the cost of the plan, senators did not reach agreement on which programs to trim."

The New York Times on the centrist group's work so far: "By early evening, aides said the group had drafted a list of nearly $90 billion in cuts, including $40 billion in aid for states, more than $14 billion for various education programs, $4.1 billion to make federal buildings energy efficient and $1.5 billion for broadband Internet service in rural areas. But they remained short of a deal, and talks were expected to resume Friday morning."

The Hill: "Reid said the Senate will resume amending the bill on Friday morning, and is 'cautiously optimistic' that senators would pass the bill later in the day. If Republicans object to holding the final vote on Friday, Reid said he would file a cloture motion and set up the final vote on Sunday morning."

NBC's Ken Strickland says the big amendment to watch for today is Nelson/Collins, which is expected to cut about $100 billion worth of questionable spending from the bill. But at the moment, the bipartisan group can't agree on what which items get cut. Assuming an agreement can be reached and assuming the amendment passed on the floor, it probably won't drop the price of the bill low enough to attract significant GOP support. (Remember, every House Republican voted against the House version at about $820-B. The Senate version has grown in cost, hovering now at about $920 billion. Nelson/Collins cuts would bring the total cost just where the House bill finished.)

Rank-and-file Republicans, Strick adds, appear to have no hesitation voting against what they consider a pork-laden, high-priced, liberal-leaning, spending -- not stimulus -- bill.  As one GOP aide said, Democrats will pass it with a narrow victory, "and then they own it."

Politico writes, "In what was the most pointedly partisan speech of his young presidency, Obama rejected Republican arguments that massive spending in the $819 billion stimulus bill that passed the House should be replaced by a new round of massive tax cuts. 'I welcome this debate, but we are not going to get relief by turning back to the same policies that for the last eight years doubled the national debt and threw our economy into a tailspin,' said President Obama – sounding more like Candidate Obama than at any time since he took the oath of office less than a month ago."

"Obama, speaking to about 200 House Democrats at their annual retreat at the Kingsmill Resort and Spa, dismissed Republican attacks against the massive spending in the stimulus. 'What do you think a stimulus is?' Obama asked incredulously. 'It's spending — that's the whole point! Seriously.'"

More from The Hill on Obama's remarks at the House Democratic retreat: "President Obama on Thursday told House Democrats to ask not what the economic stimulus plan can do for them, but what they can do to pass the economic stimulus plan… 'This package is not going to be absolutely perfect,' Obama told a packed room of over 200 Democrats in Williamsburg, Va. 'And you can nit and you can pick, you know that's the game we all play here. You know how to play that game. What I'm saying is, now we can't afford to play it,'" Obama continued.

The AP: "'The American people are watching,' Obama said. 'They did not send us here to get bogged down with the same old delay and distractions. They did not vote for the false theories of the past. They did not vote for the status quo - they sent us here to bring change, and we owe it to them to act.'"

Obama also issued some tough talk when he spoke at the Energy Department yesterday, the Wall Street Journal notes.  "Mr. Obama's recent courtship of Republicans gave way to blunt derision of their ideas for the stimulus, as he tried to raise the political pressure to pass a measure with a price tag of over $900 billion in the Senate. Republican proposals are 'rooted in the idea that tax cuts alone can solve all our problems, that government doesn't have a role to play, that half measures and tinkering are somehow enough, that we can afford to ignore our most fundamental economic challenges," the president said in an address at the Department of Energy Thursday. "Those ideas have been tested, and they have failed."

In his latest National Journal article, Charlie Cook argues that Obama needs to be at quarterback on key legislation, not the Democratic House. "What was so impressive about Obama's victory last November was that in winning 53 percent of the popular vote and 365 electoral votes, he showed a breadth of support that suggested a transcendent appeal… But the House-passed package suggested an effort exclusively of, by, and for Democrats, and it played to some of the worst stereotypes of the Democratic Party and of politics as usual on Capitol Hill. It implied that Obama had become a captive of, rather than the victor over, old-style politics. If Obama plays his own game, he can win. He certainly did in 2008. But if he plays someone else's, he loses."

Cook concludes, "Congressional Democrats are understandably anxious to put into place those programs and priorities that got nowhere while Democrats chafed under Republican rule. Expecting them to take naturally to this very different approach by Obama is unrealistic. For that very reason, the Obama White House must begin sending in the plays, or it risks having Hill quarterbacks call their own in ways that run counter to the president's game plan and have much less likelihood of success."

"The confirmation of another Cabinet member stalled Thursday because of unpaid taxes after USA TODAY disclosed that the husband of Labor secretary nominee Hilda Solis paid about $6,400 this week to settle numerous tax liens against his business dating to 1993. Solis and her husband, Sam Sayyad, were unaware of liens against his auto repair shop until USA TODAY asked about them Tuesday." White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said at the White House briefing yesterday that he didn't think this should hold up Solis' confirmation because the lien was against Solis' husband's business, with which she has no affiliation.

However, the country's "largest labor and Hispanic groups are ratcheting up the confirmation fight over Labor Secretary nominee Hilda Solis, preparing a full-out political and media blitz to get the California Democrat approved and into the Obama cabinet," the Huffington Post reports. 'Enough is enough, the gloves are coming off on Friday,' said one official with the AFL-CIO, outraged over the delays. 'Labor, women's groups, Hispanic groups are opening fire. We worked with Republicans in good faith. Hilda Solis has answered all their questions but they continue to oppose her for partisan ideological reasons.'"

Leon Panetta went largely "unscathed" in yesterday's first hearing for CIA. On waterboarding, "Panetta told the Senate Intelligence Committee he believed the practice was torture and illegal under U.S. law. But he also said CIA employees who used it should not be prosecuted because they had received assurance from the attorney general's office at the time that the practice was legal."

Video: Panetta answers questions about torture.

The Washington Post previews Obama's rollout of his Economic Recovery Advisory Board. "The Obama administration today announced a team of outside economic advisers, chaired by former Federal Reserve chairman Paul A. Volcker, to help sculpt a response to the deepening recession. Drawn from corporate, labor and academic circles, the White House Economic Recovery Advisory Board is meant to prevent policy from being made in an 'echo chamber' in Washington, Obama said when announcing the plans last year. The group is modeled after the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board that President Dwight D. Eisenhower used to advise him in the 1950s."

"It seemed like a firm campaign promise," the LA Times writes. "Barack Obama pledged to continue President Bush's faith-based office in the White House, but with a key change: Groups receiving federal money would no longer be allowed to discriminate in hiring on the basis of religion. On Thursday, however, as President Obama disclosed the details of his faith-based program, he left the controversial Bush policy in place. The decision angered Democrats and civil libertarians who thought Obama had agreed with their view that Bush's 2002 executive order went too far." 

US News & World Report also notes that the left is angry about this. "'He's leaving all the substantive options and directions open' on the question of faith-based hiring, says Ira Lupu, a George Washington University Law School professor who specializes in church-state issues. 'He's saying, "Let's see what the lawyers tell me."'"

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs yesterday confirmed that Obama will hold his first news conference as president, on Monday at 8:00 pm ET. 

MINNESOTA: The state Supreme Court yesterday "heard oral arguments on Franken's request for a certificate of election now, at least on an interim basis, so that Minnesota's empty seat can be filled without waiting the months it may take for the courts to resolve Coleman's separate lawsuit over the recount, which gave Franken a 225-vote advantage," the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes. "The justices took the case under advisement and didn't say when they might rule, but their many questions suggested they were skeptical of Franken's arguments."

A separate Star Trib story notes that the three-panel contest over the recount is all about geography. "Norm Coleman and Al Franken both say they want every valid vote to count. But some ballots might be more important to them than others. Coleman is pushing to review rejected absentee ballots from mostly GOP-friendly suburbs and outstate counties. Democrat Franken is paying particular attention to similar ballots from the Democratic-leaning cities of Minneapolis, St. Paul and Duluth."

VIRGINIA: The AP dives into the Virginia governor's race. "It's just not The Virginia Way. In the past few weeks, former Democratic National Chairman Terry McAuliffe entered the Old Dominion's governor's race with the subtlety of a runaway cement truck, wrecking the slow rhythms of the state's musty political traditions… It's left his two rivals for June's bruising primary winded. 'How can you respond to a whirlwind?' said state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds, 51, the only elected officeholder in the race not leaving his post early to run and raise money full-time. 'I'll have enough money at the end of the day that people know there is a choice.'"