From NBC's Mark Murray
As the New York Daily News writes, this probably ends any speculation that he'll run for office next year or in 2012: Brazilian officials announced they've hired Rudy Giuliani as a security consultant for the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro.

But if you've read Jon Lee Anderson's piece in The New Yorker on the drug violence in Rio -- or if you've seen the movie "City of God" -- you probably realize that Rudy's job there will be MUCH different than cracking down on squeegee-men in Manhattan...

From NBC's Mark Murray
The AFL-CIO says it's airing a new TV ad -- to begin on Sunday in the D.C. media market, and then later in key states -- that stresses the labor group's two priorities on health care: 1) pass reform, and 2) don't pay for it by taxing health benefits.

[Youtube:X0W16chXsC0]

From NBC's Ken Strickland
As of this moment, the Senate is expected to be in Saturday, and probably Sunday.

There will probably be votes on at least one of those days, but not sure which days or votes on what issues. (We don't think the votes will be on any hot-button issues like abortion or public option.)

We'll keep you posted.

*** UPDATE *** The Senate will be in session at 10:00 am ET Saturday and about noon on Sunday. Two votes take place on Saturday afternoon, about 2:00 pm. One will be offered by Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln that deals with insurance company executive pay. The Republican amendment is TBD.

On Sunday, votes would be in the afternoon -- topics TBD. Democrats are planning to have a closed-door caucus meeting, also in the afternoon. The session should adjourn no later than 6:30 pm.

From NBC's Mark Murray
During President Obama's first 10-plus months in office, most of the economic news hasn't been positive. The unemployment rate is in double digits for the first time since the early 1980s. Critics have argued that the $787 billion stimulus hasn't worked the way some hoped it would. And Republicans, not surprisingly, have pounced on these shortcomings. 

But as the economic news begins to get better -- positive growth in the 3rd quarter, the CBO estimating that between 600,000 and 1.6 million jobs in the 3rd quarter were created or saved by the stimulus, and today's best monthly jobs report in nearly two years -- Democrats are now pointing to what they see as the GOP's disconnect on the economy.

"There is a real disconnect," said Doug Thornell, a top Democratic congressional spokesman. "At what point are they going to acknowledge the positive steps taken that have pulled us away from the brink?"

Consider this statement Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele released just minutes after today's job numbers came out, showing that the unemployment rate dropped (from 10.2% in October to 10.0% in November) and that the economy lost 11,000 jobs (the best monthly showing since Dec. 2007). "More than 11,000 Americans lost their jobs in the month of November, meaning more than 2.8 million Americans have lost their jobs since the stimulus passed, and the national unemployment rate remains in double digits. If President Obama is truly interested in job creation, then he should stop campaigning for reelection, stop pushing 'Stimulus II,' and start working with Republicans on common-sense conservative solutions." (Left unsaid in the statement was that more than 3 million jobs were lost during Bush's final year in office.)

By contrast, GOP Rep. Kevin Brady issued this sober statement: "The number of jobs lost is better than expected, which is good news, but we can't celebrate a 10 percent unemployment rate when the long-term unemployment rate continues to grow in troubling numbers."

For the White House's part, economic adviser Christina Romer wrote this on the White House blog: "Despite the welcome decline, the unemployment rate remains unacceptably high. This underscores the need for the responsible actions to jumpstart private-sector job creation... The monthly employment and unemployment numbers are volatile and subject to substantial revision. Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative. But, it is clear we are moving in the right direction."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Allentown: Well, President Obama is heading here to Allentown… Where they're closing all the factories down… Out in Bethlehem, they're killing time… Filling out forms, standing in line… And President Obama is heading here to Allentown… He's having trouble keeping the unemployment rate down… And Republicans are trying to make political haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay…. So that's why President Obama is heading here to Allentown.

*** Unemployment rate drops to 10%: With apologies to the great Billy Joel, that is essentially Obama's mission when he talks about jobs and the economy today in Allentown, PA at 11:45 am ET. But the president will have some better news to talk about when he's there. According to the latest jobs numbers, the nation lost only 11,000 jobs in November -- the best monthly showing since Dec. 2007 -- and the unemployment rated dropped from 10.2% to 10.0%. Allentown is the county seat of Lehigh County. In January, area unemployment was 8.2%. The preliminary September figures show it at 9.1%. (By the way, Billy Joel's "Allentown" came out in 1982, when the state's unemployment rate hit 12.7%.) With Obama in Allentown, the Republican National Committee is airing a radio ad in Pennsylvania that criticizes the president (and also Arlen Specter) on the economy and the stimulus, which might not be as effective given today's job figures. By the way, MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," which airs at 1:00 pm ET, interviews Labor Secretary Hilda Solis.

*** Does Obama need to be more empathetic? Yesterday, the White House announced that Obama would be giving a speech on the economy on Tuesday, Dec. 8 at the Brookings Institution. Question: Does the president need to be more empathetic? That's something that Democratic strategist Mandy Grunwald raises in a piece by PoliticsDaily's Walter Shapiro: "After spending the entire administration trying not to be Bill Clinton, the president could now use a dose of Bill Clinton's empathy," she said. By the way, the next big Capitol Hill debate -- potentially -- will be whether to using TARP money to fund some of these short-term job creation programs. Republicans want all TARP funds to be used for deficit reduction. Here's what's likely to happen: The White House will endorse BOTH ideas, using some TARP money to fund these short-term job creating programs, while pledging to have some TARP funds used for deficit reduction.

*** What a week: Two issues that have undone past presidencies -- war and the economy -- have been front and center this week. On Afghanistan, the first national poll since Obama's announcement is out. The new USA Today/Gallup survey shows that a narrow majority (51%-40%) support Obama's strategy in general. "Fifty-six percent of Republicans and 58% of Democrats support Obama's plan -- even though Democrats also are inclined to say that fewer troops should be sent and that they should be pulled out sooner. Independents are the most skeptical, dividing 45%-44%." But the poll also shows that there "is little consensus in favor of his specific decisions to deploy 30,000 more U.S. troops or to set a timetable to begin their withdrawal in 2011." More: "By nearly 3-1, Americans worry that the costs of the war will make it more difficult to deal with problems close to home. There is also concern that withdrawing troops might make the nation more vulnerable to terrorist attacks, but the 55%-43% margin isn't as wide."

*** 7,000 more: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is in Brussels to persuade NATO allies to send more troops to Afghanistan. And it looks like Clinton got some welcome news. "Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the NATO secretary general, announced Friday that the alliance had agreed to contribute a further 7,000 'new forces' to the coalition there following Washington's decision to commit some 30,000 American reinforcements," the New York Times says. "As he announced an additional 7,000 more NATO troops, Mr. Rasmussen said there would be "more to come" but did not say when or which nations would contribute." Here's another thing worth pointing out: Defense Secretary Gates used the Iraq surge to sell the Afghanistan surge. Oh, the irony…

*** Was Will Rogers right about the Democratic Party? With multiple reports today (in the NYT and National Journal) about how liberals are upset with Obama's policies (on Afghanistan and other issues), it makes us wonder if it's much easier to be a Republican president rather than a Democratic one. Consider: Because there are more self-described conservatives than liberals, GOP presidents are freer to play to their base and not rely as much on the middle to win national elections. In addition, Republican presidents typically don't face much dissent from GOP members of Congress. Even as the Iraq war became an albatross for Republicans, almost all of them followed George W. Bush off that political cliff in 2006 and 2008. And on issues that Republicans now say they disagreed with Bush -- the spending, the deficits, No Child Left Behind -- the criticism was barely audible while he was office. By comparison, a Democrat has been in the White House for just 10 months, and the left is freely criticizing Obama over Afghanistan, health care, the economy, judicial nominations, you name it. Many liberals and Democrats would probably pat themselves on the back for this kind of independence. Then again, maybe there's a reason why Republicans have controlled the White House more times than Democrats have over the past 40 years…

*** Allentown then and now: With Obama in Allentown today, it's worth pointing out some promises the president made when he was campaigning there back in March 2008. Back then he said, "It took George Bush one term to equal what the previous 42 presidents had achieved in terms of national debt." Bush gathered about $4.9 trillion in debt during the eight years of his presidency. Obama has gathered $1.4 trillion in 10 months. When Bush took office, the national debt was $5.7 trillion (Jan. 19, 2001). When he left, it was $10.6 trillion (Jan. 20, 2009). Since Obama's inauguration on Jan. 20, that debt has climbed to $12 trillion. Meanwhile, on prescription drugs, Obama said at that March 2008 Allentown event: "If you're a senior citizen ... can't afford prescription drugs because the drug companies were able to write a provision in the prescription-drug Medicare law that says you can't negotiate with drug companies for the cheapest available price." But as has been reported, the White House has promised to protect drug makers from additional costs in the eventual health-care bill.

*** 2010 watch: In Texas, outgoing Houston Mayor Bill White (D) today is expected to announce he's running for governor, which will give Democrats their best shot at winning the governor's mansion since the early 1990s. One of the reasons why has to do with the contentious GOP primary between incumbent Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. And just to give you a taste of the back-and-forth: "Asked if it isn't time to give someone like Hutchison a chance to take the reins of the state, Perry replied, 'Mack Brown has been the head coach of the University of Texas for longer than I've been governor, and I don't hear anyone calling for Mack to step down.' Hutchison responded on Twitter: 'I know Mack Brown, Mack Brown is a friend of mine. Governor, you're no Mack Brown.'" Meanwhile, in Nevada, a new Las Vegas Review-Journal poll has Harry Reid with an upside-down fav/unfav (38% positive, 49% negative). 

*** Palin watch: According to Politico, Sarah Palin tipped her hat to the so-called "birther" movement. "Would you make the birth certificate an issue if you ran?" she was asked on a conservative talk-radio show. Her answer: "I think the public rightfully is still making it an issue. I don't have a problem with that. I don't know if I would have to bother to make it an issue, because I think that members of the electorate still want answers… I think it's a fair question, just like I think past association and past voting records -- all of that is fair game." Yet on her Facebook page, Palin later reversed course: "[A]t no point -- not during the campaign, and not during recent interviews -- have I asked the president to produce his birth certificate or suggested that he was not born in the United States." Trying to have it both ways?

*** Other Friday odds and ends: NARAL has a new TV ad blasting the anti-abortion Stupak amendment. And Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood is leading at conference at 2:00 pm ET on domestic high-speed rail manufacturing.

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A new USA Today/Gallup poll show: Americans are "more likely to favor Obama's plan in general -- by 51%-40% -- than they are to endorse its individual components. There is little consensus in favor of his specific decisions to deploy 30,000 more U.S. troops or to set a timetable to begin their withdrawal in 2011. ... Fifty-six percent of Republicans and 58% of Democrats support Obama's plan -- even though Democrats also are inclined to say that fewer troops should be sent and that they should be pulled out sooner. Independents are the most skeptical, dividing 45%-44%." More: "By nearly 3-1, Americans worry that the costs of the war will make it more difficult to deal with problems close to home. There is also concern that withdrawing troops might make the nation more vulnerable to terrorist attacks, but the 55%-43% margin isn't as wide."

National Journal's Victor writes a story about the left's growing disillusionment with Obama. "'The progressive community really is disappointed, after feeling for the first time in a long time that they had the Republicans and the Wall Street big corporation crowd on the run—that this was our time, this was a moment of opportunity. And Obama not only failed to take it but bailed out these guys and got nothing for it,' said Jeff Faux, who founded the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank, in 1986."

The New York Times runs a similar story. "President Obama's decision to send more troops to Afghanistan over the objections of fellow Democrats on Capitol Hill is straining a relationship already struggling under the weight of an administration agenda that some Democratic lawmakers fear is placing them in a politically vulnerable position. The result has been a subtle shift in which Democrats in Congress are becoming less deferential to the White House, making clear that Mr. Obama will not always be able to count on them to fall into line and highlighting how Mr. Obama's expansive ambitions are running up against political realities." 

The Hill covers yesterday's jobs summit. "President Barack Obama backed a push for job creation measures despite long-term concerns about the deficit at a White House jobs summit Thursday." Obama's argument: "If we can't grow our economy, then it is going to be that much harder for us to reduce the deficit," the president said. "The single most important thing we could do right now for deficit reduction is to spark strong economic growth, which means that people who've got jobs are paying taxes and businesses that are making profits have taxes -- are paying taxes."

The president is giving a speech on jobs and the economy Tuesday at the left-leaning Brookings Institution.

"Bank of America's surprise move to pay back $45 billion in federal bailout money ratchets up pressure on rivals Wells Fargo and Citigroup to get out from under the government's thumb. But don't expect it to happen anytime soon," the AP writes, adding if BoA pays all of the money back, it "would join JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs Group as large banks that have cut ties with the government -- and broken free of limits on executive compensation and other restrictions."

Sen. Tom Carper, trying to work up a public option alternative, met with moderates last night to discuss it. "Among those who attended all or part of the meeting were Democratic Sens. Mark Begich (Alaska); Kay Hagan (N.C.); Mary Landrieu (La.); Blanche Lincoln (Ark.); Ben Nelson (Neb.); Mark Pryor (Ark.); Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.); Arlen Specter (Pa.); and Mark Warner (Va.)," Roll Call reports. But "Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID-Conn.), who caucuses with the Democrats, also attended. But he made clear afterward that his staunch opposition to inclusion of a public insurance option of any kind into the health care reform bill has not changed."

"The Senate will likely be debating a controversial amendment on re-importing prescription drugs this weekend, rather than an equally contentious proposal to strengthen the bill's prohibition on federal funding of abortion," Roll Call writes. The Senate is going to stay in session over the weekend to continue debating and voting on amendments. Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) is working with Republicans to craft language on a potential abortion amendment. 

But, per The Hill, Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl doesn't think the amendment will have the votes to be adopted, since it will likely have to meet a 60-vote threshold.

With President Obama heading to Copenhagen on Wednesday for the worldwide climate-change conference, conservatives in this country have seized on stolen e-mail exchanged between scientists who won the Nobel Prize in 2007. Conservative critics say the e-mails are evidence of worldwide conspiracy. Rep. James Sensenbrenner called them evidence of a "massive international scientific fraud."
 
Sarah Palin is adding her voice to the critics as well: "Stand by for Facebook entry on Obama's climate change 'experts' & their latest shenanigans," she Tweeted yesterday. "Thank God 'Climategate' truth is being revealed!"  And then on Facebook she called for Obama to "Boycott Copenhagen; Investigate Your Climate Change 'Experts'."

Freakonomics author Stephen Dubner tries to sort it out and wraps it all up pretty well in his New York Times blog: "In the 10 days since we first blogged about 'ClimateGate' -- the unauthorized release of e-mails and other material from the Climate Research Unit (C.R.U.) at East Anglia University in Norwich, England -- it's become strikingly clear that one's view of the issue is deeply colored by his or her incoming biases. No surprise there, but still, the demarcation is clear."
 
More: "[A]t a Congressional hearing on 'The State of Climate Science,' Rep. James Sensenbrenner (R-WI) 'called for an investigation of the e-mails,' according to NPR, saying that 'at worst, it's junk science and it's part of a massive international scientific fraud.'"
 
Dubner concludes: "So if what we're all really after here is 'a disinterested and uncoordinated scientific consensus,' what is the current route to that goal? It is hard to think that the I.P.C.C. won't think twice about every research paper it considers in the future. If the entire enterprise has been tainted -- a big 'if' -- who will, or should, be leading the charge toward producing scientific research wherein every cloud formation doesn't look like just another Rorschach blot?"

ARKANSAS: A Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll finds that Sen. Blanche Lincoln could face a tough primary against potential challenger Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. The poll found that Lincoln leads the lesser-known Halter by only 42% to 26%, and loses even more of that lead if she joins a Republican filibuster of the health care reform bill, the poll found, slipping to a 37% to 27% lead. 

CONNECTICUT: Is Chris Dodd too well-known to win re-election? His poll numbers "are so mind-bendingly lousy that Democrats are quietly questioning his ability to pull off a comeback during his 2010 reelection bid," Politico writes, adding: "He trails Simmons by 49 percent to 38 percent, while clocking an abysmal 54 percent disapproval rating with Connecticut voters, according to a Nov. 12 Quinnipiac poll. But the really bad news, political professionals say, is that the five-term Democrat is simply too well-known -- and mistrusted  -- to move his numbers much more than he already has." 

Former ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R) has dropped his Senate bid in exchange for the governor's race, the Hartford Courant reports. 

ILLINOIS: Alexi Giannoulias launched his TV ad campaign "highlighting his involvement in keeping suit manufacturer jobs in the Chicago area," the Chicago Tribune reports. Giannoulias had threatened to pull $8 million from Wells Fargo if the firm didn't stop trying to liquidate suit maker Hartmarx. "By featuring Giannoulias taking on a banking interest, the ad may be an attempt to counter criticism from opponents that the state treasurer, a wealthy banking heir, would be reluctant to take on the industry in Washington," the Tribune writes.  

INDIANA: "Ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R-IN) will challenge Sen. Evan Bayh (D) next year, he announced on his website today," Hotline On Call writes. "The GOPer will not be able to compete with Bayh's money. Hostettler was never a strong fundraiser… But [he] is the best candidate GOPers could hope for against an incumbent they never planned to seriously contest." It remains to be seen if he will be anything more, however, than a Tea Party candidate in a state that is much more purple than his old House seat in IN-8, now held by former Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Hostettler also never had much of a political operation; he served as his own campaign manager. That won't cut it against Bayh.  

PENNSYLVANIA: Sen. Arlen Specter "took the lead" on a letter to President Obama, signed by nine centrist Democrats from rural and Rust Belt districts outlining "10 core issues that the senators think 'should be embodied in new international agreements and in domestic legislation," the New York Times reports. Among their stipulations are that "all major economies should adopt ambitious, quantifiable, measurable, reportable and verifiable national actions." 

MASSACHUSETTS: The Boston Globe on the four-candidate TV ad blitz, less than a week away from Tuesday's primary: "The ads are almost entirely biographical or issue-oriented -- only one of the 28 spots so far has even mentioned a candidate's competitors -- and the spots tend to feature… small towns, busy workplaces, and concerned citizens, and frequent mentions of health care, the economy, and Kennedy. Two of the ads… even feature the same stock footage of a New England village in autumn; another two feature the same background music.  

Despite polls that would suggest otherwise, Democratic Senate candidate and City Year founder Alan Khazei says of his chances in the primary: "I can totally win this thing… I understand the rhythm of a dark-horse candidacy," he told the Cape Cod Times. "Everybody wants to call the election. It's weird to me. ... The only poll that counts is on Election Day." 

CQ Politics: The SEIU's PAC "is running more than $200,000 worth of radio ads supporting state Attorney General Martha Coakley in the final days of the Massachusetts Senate race." According to the SEIU, the ad touts Coakley's ability to "get results in Washington" including "reducing healthcare costs and improving access, turning our economy around, investing in green energy to create jobs, and passing tougher Wall Street regulations." 

MISSOURI: Rep. Roy Blunt, the presumptive Republican nominee running for Sen. Kit Bond's vacant seat, stressed the need to reach out to minorities in the upcoming 2010 and 2010 elections, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. He also said the lack of a clear frontrunner in the 2012 election was not important: "I've never bought into this idea that it matters who the leader of the Republican Party is in 2009. What matters is talking about ideas, that we have alternatives," Blunt said.  

TEXAS: Houston mayor Bill White, now considering switching from the Senate to Governor's race, is taking a page out of the Obama playbook, writes Ben Smith, announcing his "final decision" over text message today, just as Obama informed supporters of his Vice President, Joe Biden.

From NBC's Athena Jones
Bring your A-Game, President Obama told the audience at a summit the White House sponsored today to solicit ideas on how to spur job growth.

Some 130 attendees from businesses big and small, labor, non-profits, and academia took part in the event, participating in six panel discussions that focused on infrastructure investment, small businesses, green jobs, exports, encouraging business investment and strengthening Main Street.

"The question we have to ask ourselves today: How do we get businesses to start hiring again?" Obama said in during the opening session of an event. "How do we get ourselves to the point where more people are working and more people are spending and you start seeing a virtuous cycle and the recovery starts to feed on itself."

With unemployment at a 26-year high of 10.2% and in the double digits in more than a dozen states, the administration is under increasing pressure to jumpstart job creation. Their Republican critics argue the $787 billion stimulus package the president signed in February has done more to increase the deficit than it has to reduce the unemployment.

"You have to remember that President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid have never run a business, much less ever had a real job in the private sector," House Minority Leader John Boehner said at a roundtable discussion he hosted on jobs today with economists and GOP leaders. "So how do they know what it takes to create real jobs?

The president highlighted steps his administration had taken to stabilize the financial system and encourage lending to families and businesses -- steps he believes were necessary to avert a total economic collapse. He also noted that with productivity rising, companies were reporting profits and the stock market was up, but said there was still much more to do.

"I am not interested in taking a wait-and-see approach when it comes to creating jobs," he said. "What I'm interested in is taking action right now to help businesses create jobs right now, in the near term."

In fact, critics have called today's jobs summit just another Washington solution, an example of talk instead of action. Obama acknowledged the skepticism, but tossed it aside with a joke that dates back to the campaign trail. "I don't mind skepticism. If I listened to the skeptics, I wouldn't be here," he said to laughs.

Obama plans to announce a set of measures to boost job growth on Tuesday in a speech at the Brookings Institution. But today he stressed the need to do so responsibly given the nation's already-stretched resources.

"I want to be clear: While I believe that government has a critical role in creating the conditions for economic growth, ultimately true economic recovery is only going to come from the private sector," he said. "We don't have enough public dollars to fill the hole of private dollars that was created as a consequence of the crisis."

During the closing session, the president discussed some of the conclusions of the two working groups he took part in -- on infrastructure and green jobs. And he took questions on topics ranging from higher education and the deficit to the uncertainty many businesses feel is hampering their ability to make investment decisions like hiring.

Uncertainty was an issue mentioned by questioners. "My strong hope is that we get health care done by the end of this year. That eliminates some uncertainty, because people will have a sense of what's going to be happening in the health care field," Obama said. "That we get financial regulatory reform done, if not by the end of this year then early next year so that banks have certainty and that to the extent that the uncertainty is derived from these major legislative initiatives I think will be solved in the next few months."

From NBC's Ken Strickland
The topic of abortion will likely be the next contentious matter before the Senate as it votes to amend its healthcare bill, according Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). At issue: how best to prevent government funding of abortion services.

The House-passed bill includes a measure from Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) that places strict limits on federal funds being used toward abortions as part of any government-backed program. Abortion-rights supporters in the House say the measure goes too far and vowed to vote against the final bill if Stupak language exists.

A self-described, pro-life Senate Democrat, Ben Nelson (NE), had announced plans to offer a similar amendment to the Senate bill, which will likely garner significant Republican support. Today, Nelson renewed his pledge to filibuster the Senate bill if Stupak-like language isn't included.

"If Stupak-type language is not in the bill at the end of the day, I can't support getting it off the floor," to told reporters. "That's not negotiable. No wiggle room."

The Senate bill, as currently written, contains language preventing federal funds for abortion, but doesn't go as far as Stupak. The Senate version has the support of staunch abortion-rights advocates like Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA).

"We don't want to disturb this compromise that's been in place," she said. "Neither side loves it, but we said originally that our intention was not to raise this issue of abortion [on a healthcare bill]," she said.

She was confident liberal Democrats had the votes to defeat it.

"It's the biggest rollback in three decades for women's rights," Boxer said of the Stupak measure, "and I think we're going to win over here."

Reid had no clear answer for how he would diffuse the matter. 

"I've always found him to be a reasonable person," Reid said of Nelson at a news conference at on healthcare. "I think it's probably better that I do my negotiation with him, rather than you."

From NBC's Mark Murray
Next March's GOP gubernatorial primary in Texas between incumbent Rick Perry and challenger Kay Bailey Hutchison is a fascinating -- and incredibly contentious -- race.

It pits two Republicans who don't like each other much. One's a Texas Longhorn (Hutchison); the other is a Texas A&M Aggie (Perry). It's turning into a contest over the heart and soul of the Republican Party. And, to top it off, the race happens to take place on Texas Independence Day, March 2. 

Robert Draper, in the upcoming New York Times magazine, writes a great piece on the primary. Some excerpts: 

"Today, Bushworld veterans like Karl Rove, Karen Hughes and Margaret Spellings are Hutchison supporters. Most of them happen to be personally close to the senator. But another factor, acknowledges one adviser to the ex-president, is 'vindictiveness due to the way he' — Perry — 'behaved toward Bush.'"

Also: "The Texas Republican gubernatorial primary is thus shaping up to be a public airing of that national party's internal discontents. The issues and cultural references in the race are unmistakably Texan. But the contest's central question — whether a highly popular general-election Republican (Hutchison) can defeat a less-popular Republican (Perry) who nonetheless knows how to excite conservative primary voters — goes to the heart of the party's overall vitality."

And: "Republicans gamely offer the upside, as Democrats did last year while Hillary Clinton was heaving the kitchen sink at Obama. Disagreement? Healthful! Extended brawl? Great for turnout! Until recently, the Republicans could play down the damage from infighting by assuming that whoever prevailed would most likely face a weak Democratic candidate, Tom Schieffer, in the general election. But two weeks ago, Schieffer bowed out of the race. The mayor of Houston, Bill White, who has a large war chest for a campaign for the Senate, then announced he would consider switching races to run for governor."

From NBC's Pete Williams
The No. 2 official at the Justice Department is leaving after a surprisingly short tenure.

The deputy attorney general, David Ogden, said today that he will leave the post on Feb. 5, to return to private practice. He said he took a leave from his law firm 13 months ago to help with the transition. In a written statement, Ogden said he accepted the nomination to be deputy, "with the intention of returning to my practice as soon as I felt the department was firmly on that path. I believe the objectives established over a year ago have been accomplished."

However, Justice Department officials say while Ogden was a smart and savvy policy maker, he came up short in management skills, critical for the deputy's job. They say Attorney General Eric Holder, who is a former deputy AG himself, recognized the problem.

A similar situation arose in the Clinton administration. Early in the tenure of Attorney General Janet Reno, her first deputy, Philip Heymann, left after a year on the job. And similar management issues were cited.

*** UPDATE *** NBC's Domenico Montanaro adds, remember the tough time the administration had in getting Ogden confirmed in the first place because of his representation of Playboy and others?

From First Read (Feb. 27, 2009):

One key vacancy at Justice got closer to being filled yesterday, as David Ogden was confirmed by the Judiciary Committee as deputy attorney general, but not before a battle was waged by Christian conservatives opposing him because of his past legal representation of Playboy and others. Five Republicans, including Sen. Orrin Hatch wound up voting against Ogden. Arlen Specter, who voted for Ogden, told NPR he had never seen so much mail and e-mail from voters opposing someone. Specter made the distinction that personal views and legal representation are two different things. AP wrote earlier this month: "While a private attorney, Ogden argued on behalf of Playboy and librarians fighting congressionally mandated Internet filtering software."
 
But conservative blogs lit up with headlines like "Obama nominates porn-lover for deputy attorney general," "Obama Picks Porn Lawyer for #2 at Justice," "Porn Companies Back David Ogden for Deputy Attorney General," and even "Child Porn Defender = Deputy Attorney General of the United States?"

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
The first amendment to the Senate health-care bill has passed, 61-39.

The amendment would give the secretary of Health and Human Services the authority to require insurers to provide coverage for mammograms. It also would provide coverage for women's other medical issues.

Two Democrats voted no: Feingold and Ben Nelson of Nebraska.
Three Republicans voted in favor: Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and David Vitter.

This is the first change to the bill after the Senate began its debate this week.

*** UPDATE *** Feingold's rationale for voting against: "I am disappointed that the Senate health care debate has gotten off on the wrong foot. The first amendment voted on would add almost a billion dollars to our budget deficits over the next 10 years. We should make sure health plans cover women's preventive care and screenings, but we should also find a way to pay for it, rather than adding that cost to the already mountainous public debt. At a time of record deficits, Americans expect fiscal responsibility from their representatives in Congress." 

*** UPDATE II *** NBC's Robert Bazell makes an important point: The amendment prevents the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force's most recent recommendations on breast cancer screening from being used for coverage determinations.

From NBC's Pete Williams
The director of the Secret Service told Congress today that three people were responsible for letting Tareq and Michaele Salahi into last week's state dinner. Those three, said Director Mark Sullivan, are on administrative leave until the investigation is completed.

In his first public accounting of the White House security breach, Sullivan told the House Homeland Security Committee that an "error in judgment" at the first security checkpoint allowed the Salahis to enter, even though they were not on the state dinner invitation list. The officer at the initial checkpoint failed to follow the Secret Service's own rules and should have contacted a supervisor, who would have consulted with members of the White House staff to determine if the couple had been granted clearance to attend, he said.

Sullivan disclosed that the decision to have only the Secret Service officer -- but not someone from the White House staff -- at the first check point was made in a meeting preceding the state dinner between the Secret Service and the White House staff, though he said he did not know who first suggested the arrangement. Such a procedure has been used in the past, he said, though not often. He noted that the White House has now declared that staffers will, from now on, join the Secret Service at social event checkpoints.

Both Republicans and Democrats said that the White House, particularly the social secretary's office, shared the blame for the security lapse. "We expect the Secret Service to take a bullet for the president. But we don't expect it to take a bullet for the president's staff," said Charlie Dent, a Pennsylvania Republican congressman.

Democrat Henry Cuellar of Texas told Sullivan, "This responsibility should be shared, but you're being a good solider" -- for saying the Secret Service was solely at fault.

From NBC's Luke Russert
Countering the emerging narrative that next year's midterm elections will be a replay of 1994 -- when Republicans took back control of Congress -- House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer stressed that '94 doesn't compare with what's happening today.

"If it were November of 1993, we would be having this meeting? No, because in November of 1993, people weren't discussing that we were going to have tough races in November of 1994. We were sure that what was would be, as a result we weren't as on guard as we should have been."

Hoyer continued, "That is definitively not the case in 2009. There were issues in 1994, but they were not analogous to the issues of today. The economy was not nearly as stretched as it is today... In the success that we had, which was a major success in 1993, nobody realized its positive impact until three or four years later when the economy really started to reduce deficits... Democrats have been working very hard from the beginning of this year, with the realization that next year would be a significantly contested year."

This week, Republicans have pointed to the announced retirement of Tennessee Blue Dog John Tanner (D) as a sign Democrats are in trouble. The National Republican Congressional Committee released a statement saying, "A well-funded member of the original Blue Dog coalition is throwing in the towel because he sees the writing on the wall."

In an attempt to downplay Tanner's retirement, Hoyer said the Tennessee Democrat was retiring for family, not political reasons. "John Tanner has got some significant concerns with his family, his granddaughter was born with very substantial health problems, where she is at great risk over the past four to six months... I think he just came to the conclusion that his family needed him very legitimately."

Looking ahead to the 2010 mid-term elections, Hoyer asserted that "Americans got a lot of angst a lot of anger and a lot of fear. A lot of concern about the economy whether you are a Democrat, Republican or independent, polling says that jobs are the issue."

In order to sway these jobs voters, Hoyer said Democrats will focus on job creation and fiscal responsibility in the halls of Congress, and will "focus like a laser to make sure we are creating jobs, we are going to do it and the president is going to do."

Hoyer said Democrats were targeting three specific GOP seats, which they see as vulnerable: Mike Castle's seat in Delaware, Mark Kirk's in Illinois, and Jim Gerlach's in Pennsylvania. "We are not sitting on our laurels; we are still focused on GOP seats that we can pick up."

From NBC's Amna Nawaz and Domenico Montanaro
Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) used his questioning time during confirmation hearing of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to deliver a 10-minute-plus statement, berating Bernanke for decisions made during his tenure as chairman, and calling him "the definition of a moral hazard."

The senator, the only one to oppose Bernanke's previous confirmation, angrily read through a litany of charges, accusing Bernanke of acting irresponsibly and failing to take responsibility.

Bunning pledged to do "everything" he can to stop the nomination and "drag out this process as long as I can."

It makes for strange ideological fringe bedfellows, the Southern conservative Bunning and uber-liberal Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, a self-proclaimed socialist who put a block on Bernanke's nomination.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
The Senate's first votes on its healthcare bill are rooted directly in a controversy sparked by a government panel's recommendations on mammograms. The U.S. Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF) recently suggested that regular mammograms were not required for women less than 50 years of age.

An amendment offered by Democratic Sen. Barbara Mikulski (MD) would require all health plans to cover comprehensive women's preventive care and screenings with no co-payments.

"This is an essential protection for women's access to preventive health care not currently covered in other prevention sections of" the Senate healthcare bill, she said in a statement.

Mikulski says screening likely covered would include: "cervical cancer screenings for a broad group of women; annual mammograms for women under 50; pregnancy and postpartum depression screenings; screenings for domestic violence; and annual women's health screenings, which would include testing for diseases that are leading causes of death for women such as heart disease and diabetes."

The Senate will also vote on an amendment from Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski (AK). Her measure would prevent government panel recommendations from influencing insurance coverage. 

"The Democrats' healthcare bill under debate in the Senate would tie preventive care services offered by health insurance companies to the recommendations of the USPSTF," her office said. "Murkowski's amendment would delete this provision from the bill and would prohibit the Secretary of Health and Human Services from using task force recommendations to deny coverage of preventive services, including mammograms and cervical cancer screening."

The Murkowski amendment would also prohibit the government from defining or classifying abortion services as preventive services.

Votes are at 11:45am, this morning.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
A factoid coming out of the gate-crashers hearing...

Secret Service Director Sullivan says that contrary to reports that he has heard in the media, the threat level to this president is no greater than for other presidents.

He says it is the "same level it has been for the last two presidents."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
At a stakeout before this morning's hearing on how those infamous party crashers got into last week's state dinner, House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson (D) said that his committee will consider subpoenas for the Salahis, and that if they decide to move forward they could be issued within a week.

Thompson also said that the committee received written word last night at 7:00 pm ET from the Salahis' attorney that the couple would not be appearing at today's hearing. They believe that they have provided all available information, according to Thompson's account of the letter.

Thompson says the goal of today's hearing is "to get the facts ... to find out how someone can walk in off the street, go to a White House function, shake hands with the president ... and not be on the list."

"Our job is to ... get the facts, and to talk to the people responsible for White House security to see if they have identified how [it happened] and whether it has been corrected."

Thompson said that Republicans on the committee asked for the testimony of the White House social secretary, but the request was rebuffed. He says that to hold that office responsible for White House security is "a stretch."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Returning to jobs: The Afghanistan issue has dominated American politics this week. And before that was health care. But there is no subject out there more politically potent than jobs and the economy. How do we know? As we wrote earlier this week, one of us attended a focus group in Philadelphia, which was conducted by Democratic pollster Peter Hart for the University of Pennsylvania's Annenberg Public Policy Center. The top concern of the 11 participants (consisting of seven Obama voters and four McCain voters) was clearly the economy, and a discussion about it provided the most gripping part of the focus group. Patricia, a 45-year-old bartender who voted for McCain, described her husband's difficulty getting work as a carpenter, and began to cry when talking about her fear of losing her home. Cheryll, 36, discussed how she, her father, and her brother had all lost their jobs.

*** The blame game: Only one participant in the focus group blamed Obama for the economy, while the others directed their ire at Wall Street (and companies like AIG) or at Congress. Lisa, a 44-year-old Obama voter, said it was her hope that the president would begin focusing on the middle class. "I wish he could do something to focus on the average person," she said. "I have a lot of hope he'll come up with something." After listening to these economic concerns, Hart told reporters that the Obama White House and Congress would be foolish not to do everything in their power to create more jobs. "If they don't do something about unemployment," he said, "they aren't watching what we are watching."

*** Dueling summits: Hence today's dueling jobs summits. The White House's begins around 1:30 pm ET with opening remarks by Labor Secretary Hilda Solis, Vice President Biden, and the President Obama. Afterward, the participants break out into different discussions on green jobs, small business growth, transportation infrastructure, exports, business competitiveness, and workforce preparation. At 3:45 pm, Commerce Secretary Gary Locke and Obama will deliver closing remarks. The 130 guests participating at the White House job summit include folks from big business (like Google's Eric Schmidt and Fed-Ex's Fred Smith), small businesses, academia (Paul Krugman and Joe Stiglitz), and organized labor (the AFL's Richard Trumka and Change to Win's Anna Burger). Meanwhile, at 11:00 am on Capitol Hill, House Republicans will be hosting their own roundtable discussion on jobs. By the way, MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Report," which begins at 1:00 pm ET, features an interview with Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) to talk about the jobs summit and her state's battle with unemployment.

*** The White House's goal for the summit: In an interview with NBC News last month, President Obama was asked how this summit would create a job. His answer: "That's not the goal. We're doing all kinds of things to make sure that employment is accelerated. Our first job was to make sure that economic growth was happening, and we're starting to see that now… So what we're seeing now is businesses are starting to invest again, they are starting to be profitable again, but they haven't started hiring again. And so the goal of the jobs summit is figure out are they ways of us accelerating that hiring? And there are a whole range of ideas out there -- we've examined a lot of them. But one of the benefits of convening this group is it gives us chance to talk directly to small businesses, medium size businesses." The president will go to Allentown, PA tomorrow to get a first hand look at a town suffering from job losses. And then next week, he will lay out his plan to accelerate hiring.

*** John McCain, GOP point person on Afghanistan? For those of us who followed nearly every minute of the 2008 presidential campaign, it's fascinating to watch how John McCain has become the GOP point person in arguing that July 2011 is a date certain that will embolden the enemy. For starters, McCain never called for more troops to Afghanistan until July 15, 2008 -- nearly a year after Obama; for McCain, Iraq was the center on the war on terrorism, not Afghanistan. Second, he never put up much a fight when the Iraqi government and Bush White House established a "time horizon" to withdraw from Iraq. And third, he himself talked about timetables during the campaign, saying that Maliki's 16-month timeframe was "a pretty good timetable" and also saying that all U.S. forces would be home from Iraq by 2013. McCain would argue -- rightly -- that his talk about timetables was always tied to conditions on the ground. But that's also true for Obama's July 2011 date. Here's what the president said on Tuesday: "Just as we have done in Iraq, we will execute this transition responsibly, taking into account conditions on the ground."

*** What does July 2011 mean? Speaking of that date, however, there has been plenty of confusion over the July 2011 deadline. Senior White House aides clarify -- it is simply a deadline for the start of the withdrawal. Perhaps just one troop comes home in July 2011, but some form of a withdrawal will begin in July 2011. The "conditions based" aspect to this is for the length of time the withdrawal will take. The confusion over this aspect of the president's new Afghanistan strategy is just another instance of the contradictions buried within the policy: It's a surge to expand the war, and it's also a plan to end the war; it's a plan to narrow the focus of the goals in Afghanistan, but also expand the policy to include Pakistan. This is a reminder that every choice the president faced could be described as a bad idea. He ended up choosing the idea that gives the military one last shot at doing it their way.

*** Testimony on Afghanistan, Day 2: Today features another round of congressional testimony on Afghanistan. Beginning at 9:00 am ET, Secretary of State Clinton, Defense Secretary Gates, and Joint Chiefs Chairman Mullen appear before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Then, at 1:00 pm, Gates and Mullen appear in front of the House Armed Services Committee (Clinton won't be there because she's leaving for Brussels for the NATO meetings there). Meanwhile, a senior defense official tells NBC's Courtney Kube that deployment orders have been issued for 1,000 marines and one Army combat aviation unit to deploy to Afghanistan in the coming weeks. The first marines will being arriving on Dec. 16.

*** Hearing crashers: Also on Capitol Hill today, the House Homeland Security Committee holds a congressional hearing on those infamous party crashers, Tareq and Michaele Salahi. But while the Salahis had no problem crashing a party they weren't invited to, they are refusing to show up to this congressional hearing to which they ACTUALLY HAVE an invite. Chairman Bennie Thompson has now threatened to subpoena the Salahis. Also NOT showing at the hearing, which begins at 10:00 am ET, is White House Social Secretary Desiree Rogers. White House Press Secretary yesterday gave this rationale for Rogers' no-show: "Based on the separation of powers, staff here don't go to testify in front of Congress." Yet that explanation falls well short of the Obama White House's promise to be more transparent. Yesterday, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina wrote a memo admitting that "the White House did not do everything we could have done to assist the United States Secret Service in ensuring that only invited guests enter the complex." 

*** Hearingcast triple play!!! The House Banking Committee is holding a hearing this morning to consider Ben Bernanke's re-nomination as Fed chairman. He might be in for a tough day…

*** Slow going on the Senate health-care bill: Per NBC's Ken Strickland, the Senate has debated its health-care bill for three days. The first Republican and Democratic amendments to the bill were introduced earlier this week. And the CBO released a report showing the Senate bill will not increase premiums for most Americans. Yet because your attention may have been on Afghanistan or those party crashers, Strick adds, it's worth an update on the votes that have taken place since the debate started three days ago. Zero. Zip. Nada. In classic Senate form, Democratic and GOP leaders have not reached an agreement on voting on amendments. Each side blames the other, but both sides say they want to vote on their amendments. Still, the end result is still no votes. Not one. But that changes today with four votes on two topics: Medicare and preventative screenings for women. Meanwhile, Sen. Judd Gregg's letter to GOP colleagues to tie up the debate is getting lots of play. 

Countdown to MA Special Primary: 5 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 47 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 334 days

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...or not to surge

The Boston Globe: "Three years after Barack Obama strongly rebuked President Bush's surge of US troops to Iraq, Obama dispatched top administration officials to Capitol Hill yesterday to defend a surge of his own." 
 
The Boston Globe editorial page weighs in, urging Obama to not be Bush. Obama "must be prepared to cut American losses and change course should it become clear the gamble is being lost." And: "All the options put before Obama were risky and flawed -- from the deployment of massive numbers of new troops to standing pat. The odds may be against a clear success for the compromise he has chosen, but the odds were against all the others as well. Americans must hope Obama's choice beats the odds." 

"Less than 24 hours after Obama made the dramatic announcement at West Point, Secretary of State Clinton and the nation's top military leaders started hedging on the pullout date Wednesday at congressional hearings. 'I do not believe we have locked ourselves into leaving' in July 2011, Clinton said, but putting the date out there was meant 'to signal very clearly to all audiences that the U.S. is not interested in occupying Afghanistan.'"

Here's what Clinton told NBC's Brian Williams about July 2011: "I think that if you re-read what the president said last night, he very clearly said that he wants to see the transfer of authority begin in July 2011. It needs to be done in a responsible way. That is conditions-based. He has said to us, he has said to others, we're not talking about falling off a cliff and beginning to, you know, bring troops home."

The New York Times front-pages that Obama's speech Tuesday night won over some skeptics. "Mr. Obama intended his speech on Tuesday at West Point to rally Americans behind his plan to send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan and to set an 18-month timetable for starting a withdrawal. And interviews on Wednesday suggested that, while opinions on the war remained wildly diverse, Mr. Obama managed to persuade a significant number of people on both sides of the political aisle, though it was impossible to know how many."

"President Barack Obama's plan to send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan leaves Congressional Democrats scrambling to support their president as they agonize over the cost of his strategy -- and their lack of viable ideas on how to pay for it," Roll Call writes. Just asking, but since Republicans are supporting this troop increase, how do they propose paying for it?

And Now, In French, If You Please: "How much does the U.S. government really trust Canada? Maybe less than you think. Espionage warnings from the Defense Department caused an international sensation a few years ago over reports of mysterious coins with radio frequency transmitters, until they were debunked. The culprit turned out to be a commemorative quarter in Canada. But at the height of the mystery, senior Pentagon officials speculated whether Canadians were involved in the spy caper. 'I don't think it is an issue of the Canadians being the bad guys,' the Pentagon's counterintelligence chief wrote in an exchange of e-mails obtained this week by The Associated Press, 'but then again, who knows.'"

"At the end of a third day of Senate debate over sweeping health care legislation, Democrats and Republicans said Wednesday night that they had broken an impasse over the seemingly simple question of how and when to vote on the first amendments," the New York Times says. "Senate leaders of both parties said they would vote Thursday on four proposals dealing with two issues: how to guarantee additional health benefits for women and how to squeeze nearly a half-trillion dollars from Medicare over 10 years without adversely affecting older Americans."

John McCain pens a USA Today op-ed blasting the Senate bill's cuts to Medicare. "Simply put, the Democrats' proposed cuts to Medicare would impact seniors' access to quality care. This is a price that Americans should not be asked to pay." 

AARP, however, has defended the cuts, saying that they eliminate waste and inefficiencies.

A Carper public option alternative is supposed to be unveiled next week, but The Hill writes, "[I]t remains to be seen how much life is left in the public option, because no variation has attracted the backing of 60 senators." 

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (I) is blocking Ben Bernanke's re-nomination as Fed Reserve chairman.
 
"Representative James McGovern is ramping up his leadership of members of Congress opposed to President Obama's troop surge in Afghanistan. The Massachusetts Democrat joined Senator Russ Feingold, a Wisconsin Democrat, and Representative Walter Jones, a North Carolina Republican, in writing Obama … to warn that the build-up could harm US efforts against Al Qaeda. 'Sending more troops to Afghanistan is unlikely to help, and could hurt, our efforts to address Al Qaeda's safe haven in Pakistan. Moreover, al Qaeda and its affiliates are located in Yemen, Somalia, North Africa and other places around the world. Rather than investing so many of our resources in Afghanistan, we should pursue a comprehensive, global counterterrorism strategy,' the three lawmakers wrote." 
 
Rep. Bennie Thompson, chairman of the House Homeland Security committee said, "If the Salahis are absent from [today's] hearing, the committee is prepared to move forward with subpoenas to compel their appearance." 
 
And this storyline continues... "Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) members on Wednesday criticized the Obama administration for not doing enough to help African-Americans through the bleak economy," The Hill writes. "Soon after withholding their votes on a wide-ranging financial services bill, 10 CBC members said they are pressuring the White House to do more." The CBC met with Rahm Emanuel yesterday, but Rep. Maxine Waters slammed the administration afterward.

Palin was in Southwest Missouri (pronounced Missour-ah in that portion of the state). The New York Daily News sets the scene: About 1,000 people "stood huddled in winter coats, scarves and Gore-Tex gloves. Some knitted to pass the time, others listened to a hillside preacher recite Bible verses using a megaphone."
 
And: "Palin didn't talk politics with her fans, and the rules of contact were strictly enforced: no cell phones or cameras, no personalized signatures, a maximum of two books per person, with proof of purchase required to even receive the color-coded wristband granting entrance to the store. But from the 'Palin 2012' buttons worn by supporters to the reminder inscribed on the side of her tour bus to join SarahPAC, her political action committee, it was clear that Palin intends to remain a political force to be reckoned with, regardless of her future plans." She spoke at College of the Ozarks, but the press was not allowed in.

 

The Hill lays out the positions of leading Democrats on President Obama's Afghanistan strategy, noting that "Democrats risk alienating the liberal base by supporting an increase in troops, but by opposing it they oppose the president and could, in some cases, hurt their general-election prospects," and that "the candidates seemed acutely aware of this conflict."  
 
ILLINOIS: Democratic Senate hopeful Alexi Giannoulias stood behind Obama's Afghanistan decision, "while his primary opponents stood against it," The Hill reports. "Giannoulias's decision suggests he is confident in his primary prospects... Of course, Giannoulias also might just want to say that he stood with his home-state president, whose Senate seat they are all seeking."  
 
KENTUCKY: "Republican Rand Paul has become the star of the Tea Party movement that's brewing up conservative challengers to establishment GOP candidates across the country, turning what was once a one-sided primary into a shootout for the Republican ballot line in the race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Jim Bunning," CongressDaily's McPike writes. "The son of Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, faces Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who was Bunning's star pupil and the choice of Senate Minority Leader McConnell, the state's senior senator, but Paul's newness to the political scene may complicate his effort to upset Grayson."

MASSACHUSETTS: And this could be the story of next Tuesday... "Attorney General Martha Coakley coasted through the final televised debate of the short Democratic primary campaign for US Senate last night, as two opponents lagging in the polls, US Representative Michael E. Capuano and businessman Stephen G. Pagliuca, sniped at each other for much of the hour," the Boston Globe writes. 

CQ Politics asks, "Can Michael Capuano catch up in the Senate special election?" Its conclusion: "Capuano has yet to prove he has the ground strength to overtake Coakley, who has the advantage of a statewide campaign infrastructure thanks to her successful campaign for state attorney general."  
 
PENNSYLVANIA: Joe Sestak has come out strongly in favor of Obama's Afghanistan strategy. And Politico writes that Obama's decision is "roiling the race between Sen. Arlen Specter" and Sestak. He derided "Specter in an interview ... as a flip-flopper for 'vot[ing] for the war in Iraq -- and now he's against a troop increase.'"  
 
When President Obama heads to Allentown, PA, to kick off his "White House to Main Street" listening tour, Lehigh Valley native and Republican Senate candidate Pat Toomey "will take advantage of Obama's visit at Lehigh Carbon Community College and hammer home the fundamental differences of opinion between himself and the Obama Democrats about the role of government."