From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
It's very likely the New Jersey election will be the closest of the races this evening. We could be in for a long night and possibly be up in the morning and not know the results.

But don't count as a factor the increase in vote-by-mail/absentees, according to state elections officials. 

In 2005, New Jersey did away with needing a reason to obtain an absentee ballot. It also changed the name from absentee, which connotes needing to not be in the state, to vote-by-mail to alleviate confusion.

The state issued 185,000 vote-by-mail ballots, and as of now 140,000 have been returned, according to Bob Giles, director of the New Jersey Division of Elections.

The Corzine campaign, for one, has been pushing black voters, in particular, to vote absentee through a Web site called, NJVoteFromHome.com, which was created by the state party.

But Giles said the increase hasn't been just attributable to Democrats.

"It's been embraced by both campaigns," Giles said.

In, the last gubernatorial election in '05, about 91,000 New Jerseyans voted by mail. In 2008, more than 280,000 voted absentee.

Counties began counting absentees this morning, and voters have until 8:00 pm ET, when polls close, to get ballots back to their county offices.

"For the most part," Giles said, "there shouldn't delay -- or not by a dramatic amount," particularly since there are only 45,000 absentees that are still out there and haven't been returned.

Still, because of a potentially close election, results might not be known until late in the evening -- or later. Remember that the last Republican to win the governorship was Christie Todd Whitman -- and she won by fewer than 50,000 votes in '93 and '97.

Back in 1981, Republican Tom Kean beat Democrat Jim Florio by just 1,797 votes -- after a recount. That was the last time there was a recount, by the way.

Translation: This is a Democratic state, and when a Republican wins -- or really has a shot -- it's CLOSE.

From NBC's Mark Murray
In an interview on MSNBC with my colleague Chuck Todd, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Bob Menendez all but endorsed Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner in Ohio's Senate Democratic primary.

When Chuck asked Menendez about key Senate pick-up opportunities for Democrats next year, the chairman singled out Ohio and Fisher. But he barely referred to Brunner, and didn't even mention her by name.

When Chuck followed up and mentioned Brunner's name, Menendez responded that she has just over $100,000 cash on hand. By comparison, Fisher has nearly $1.6 million cash on hand.

The Fisher-Brunner winner will likely face former Ohio Rep. (and former Bush OMB Director) Rob Portman in the general election next year.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier today, Arianna Huffington had quite the conversation starter: that after reading Obama campaign manager David Plouffe's new book, "The Audacity to Win," she believes the first year of Obama's presidency can be summed up with this title instead -- "The Timidity to Govern."

She wrote:

Indeed, reading the book, I often found myself wondering what Candidate Obama would think of President Obama. Would he look at what the White House is doing and say, "that's what I and my supporters worked so hard for?"

How did the candidate who got into the race because he'd decided that "the core leadership had turned rotten" and that "the people were getting hosed" become the president who has decided that the American people can only have as much change as Olympia Snowe will allow?

How did the candidate who told a stadium of supporters in Denver that "the greatest risk we can take is to try the same old politics with the same old players and expect a different result" become the president who has surrounded himself with the same old players trying the same old politics, expecting a different result?

Well, Plouffe has now responded with his own Huffington Post piece.

Arianna Huffington has written much that I agree with. But when it comes to her opinion on the president and his record so far, or her suggestion that there is some great difference between the president and the candidate, I have to register the strongest possible dissent. A year after our historic victory, I have never been more certain that Barack Obama is uniquely suited to lead the country at this unparalleled moment. His values; his ability and desire to think long term; his determination to avoid the easy road of political expedience and to rebuild trust between the American people and their government--these are exactly what American needs right now. As on any journey, there will be twists and turns, ups and downs. But the change so many of us fought for so passionately last year is becoming a reality in front of our eyes, if we focus squarely enough to see it. And when the decisions he is making today finally resolve into a complete picture years down the road, we will find ourselves living in a stronger, fairer, and more prosperous America. And we will cherish the small part all of us played in electing this unique leader, a man befitting this critical moment in our history.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
As Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid remains shy of the 60 votes he needs to bring his health-care bill to the floor, one of the senators withholding her support appears to be moving away from Reid's bill that contains a public option -- and leaning instead toward the "trigger" proposal offered by Republican Olympia Snowe.

"I remain skeptical about what's been outlined conceptually," Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) said today, referring to Reid proposal for a public option that would allow states to opt out. "I continue to want to push forward to give people in American much better choices than they have today and will continue to stay at the table and negotiate."

Landrieu said she agrees with Snowe's belief that the private market should be allowed the chance to reform itself by providing affordable insurance coverage. But she quickly added, "If the private market fails to reform or refuses to reform then there would be a fallback position."

That "fallback position" is a direct reference to Snowe's proposal -- often called  a "fallback" or "trigger."

"If we can achieve [affordable insurance coverage] through private sector reform, that's wonderful," she said. "And if not, then there should be a mechanism that basically -- I guess -- guarantees it, which would be a well-crafted trigger that is triggered not just by political whim or wish, which is what the current version in my view does, but by affordability and availability of choice."

Snowe's trigger seemed to be losing momentum in the Senate last week. Reid said the none of the health-care elements he sent to the Congressional Budget Office for cost estimates included the trigger option. But Landrieu strongly suggested the Snowe proposal is not dead. "Well, let me just say right now, I wouldn't count it out," she said, "I would not count it out."

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Mark Murray
The House and Senate are together this morning in the House chamber for a joint session, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel addresses Congress. 

Note that South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson (R) -- who yelled "You lie" at President Obama during the last joint session -- will be an escort for Merkel. Wilson was selected by the GOP leadership.

Said Wilson in a statement:

I'm honored to be chosen by Republican Leader Boehner and other Congressional leaders to escort German Chancellor Angela Merkel to the Joint Session of Congress. This honor is particularly special to me because I admire Chancellor Merkel's capable and strong leadership for the German people and the world community.

Chancellor Merkel grew up under the communism of East Germany and now she assumes the post of chancellor of the unified Germany. I'm confident she will continue to inspire and lead towards greater prosperity with conservative principles.

I also appreciate the investment Germany has made in South Carolina with BMW's economic contribution.

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
Earlier this morning, we clipped an article from The Hill, which reported that Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-D) "has reached a private understanding with Majority Leader Harry Reid that he will not block a final vote on healthcare reform."

But not so fast...

Lieberman communications director Marshall Wittmann emails First Read, "If you believe this story is true, you will also believe that I am replacing A-Rod in game six of the series."

Translation: Lieberman remains a threat to filibuster the Senate health-care bill, if it contains a public option.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** A referendum on Obama? Deep down, a political reporter's first instinct is to nationalize off-year and special elections. Why? It's the best way to try to make sense -- at least initially -- of a handful of races across the country. It's also the best way to sell a local race's importance to editors and producers. We all do it. So it shouldn't be surprising that almost everyone is nationalizing today's gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia, and even the NY-23 special congressional election. And the chief question they're asking is: Are they referendums on President Obama's first year in office? Yesterday, the New York Times wrote that the New Jersey race was "one of several [contests] likely to be viewed as a barometer of the president's popularity." And here was the AP: "A Corzine loss would be seen as a political embarrassment for the White House." 

*** Remember that candidates matter: If Democrats lose in New Jersey and Virginia, that certainly would be a shot in the arm for a Republican Party that hasn't fared well in the in the past two election cycles (losing control of Congress and the White House). That outcome also could give Democrats pause that the voter coalition that propelled Obama to victory last year (liberals, young voters, minorities, independents) appears dormant or is no longer intact. But is that a referendum on Obama? Not so much. For starters, how much does Creigh Deeds losing in Virginia say about Obama, when the president's approval rating in the state is at 57% among registered voters and 54% among likely voters, according to the most recent Washington Post poll? And if Jon Corzine's favorable rating in the Quinnipiac poll was at 38% back in March (near the height of Obama's honeymoon), and it's at 39% now, how does that say much about Obama and his popularity/presidency? Likewise, if Democrats are able to split the races by winning in New Jersey or even pull off the upset in Virginia, does that mean Obama's presidency is on easy street? Absolutely not. In short, these races say much more about Deeds/McDonnell or Corzine/Christie than they do about Obama.

*** But issues matter, too: By the way, even Republican Governors Association Chair Haley Barbour said today's races are NOT a referendum on the president. But Barbour argued that the policy climate they've set is on the ballot today. Evan Tracey, the campaign TV ad analyst for CMAG, points out that in just the D.C. market (read: Northern Virginia voters), more than $10 million in TV ads have run this year on various issues the president and his party are pushing. Did it set up a climate in Northern Virginia of government doing too much opening the door a tad more for McDonnell?

*** Bellwethers for 2010? Here's another question people are asking about today's contests: What do they say about the 2010 midterms? Again, it's hard to say. As we pointed out last week, Democrats won both the NJ and VA races in 2005 -- right after Hurricane Katrina -- which was an early sign of their success in 2006 (when they took back control of Congress) and in 2008 (when they won the White House). Yet in 2001 -- right after the 9/11 terrorist attacks -- Democrats also won the NJ and VA contests. But a year later, Republicans picked up seats in the House and Senate, and George W. Bush won re-election in 2004. Here's one other bit of history that's hard to dismiss: Since 1977 (so the past eight elections), the party that controls the White House has lost the Virginia gubernatorial contest. And since 1989 (the past five elections), the party controlling the White House has lost New Jersey.

*** Lessons learned: Still, these contests do tell a national story. But here's the thing: The lessons are already known, no matter the outcomes. Win or lose, Corzine won't get 50%, meaning more than half of the state voted to oust him in a very blue state. We know that the Republican Party has to deal with both an ideological and an establishment-vs.-grassroots rift. We know that not being associated with either political party is a net plus with many voters -- from Michael Bloomberg's expected victory, to Chris Daggett's influence in New Jersey, to Doug Hoffman's rise in NY-23. And we know that the president's coattails have gotten shorter. As one of us wrote, "So it isn't about whether or not Tuesday's elections matter. Tuesday is about which party learns the messages voters are sending. And which party over-interprets or under-interprets those messages."

*** Other races to watch: Besides the NJ/VA/NY-23 contests, Maine is voting on a ballot initiative whether to overturn the state's law allowing same-sex marriage, and the outcome could go either way. Also, New York City, Boston, and at least a dozen more big cities are holding mayoral elections. Polls close in Virginia at 7:00 pm ET; in Maine, New Jersey, and Boston at 8:00 pm; and in New York at 9:00 pm. One final thought here: What should the House GOP leadership (read: Pete Sessions) worry about more -- a Hoffman loss in NY-23 or a Garamendi (D) victory by less than five points in CA-10? Folks, the special election in blue CA-10, which Ellen Tauscher represented before heading to the Obama State Department, might be closer than many people expected a week ago….

*** How would a recount work in NJ? New Jersey is shaping up to be the closest election tonight. So what if it's so close that the winner is unclear? Well, there's no automatic recount. In other words, no vote margin triggers an automatic statewide recount. Instead, a candidate would have 15 days (Nov. 18) to request one. (They'd file in New Jersey Superior Court). There is a fee that the petitioning candidate has to incur (the Secretary of State's office didn't know how much), but all other costs are incurred by the counties. Candidates have 30 days to contest the election if they feel it was fraudulent. Once a candidate files, that would trigger an investigation. Impress Your Friends at the Water Cooler Alert: The last time a candidate requested a recount was in 1981 by Democrat Jim Florio, who in the end lost to Republican Tom Kean by 1,797 votes. The closest gubernatorial elections since '81 were in '93 and '97, when Christie Todd Whitman won by fewer than 25,000 votes. By the way, our exit poll/ballot counting experts in the NBC News boiler room tell us as many as 100,000 votes won't be counted tonight in New Jersey. If we haven't called this race by midnight, could it be we won't be able to call it for days?

*** Turnout watch: Turnout in New Jersey's last gubernatorial contest, in 2005, was 2.3 million; in 2006, it was about 2.25 million for the Menendez-Kean Senate race; and in last year's presidential, it was around 3.8 million… Turnout in Virginia's last gubernatorial contest, in 2005, was about 2 million; in 2006, it was about 2.4 million in the Webb-Allen Senate contest; and in last year's presidential, it was about 3.7 million.

*** Obama supporters disappointed? This New York Times piece is indicative of what we've seen/heard from some Obama supporters lately: They are disappointed with Obama, discovering that campaigning is a lot easier than governing. "Interviews with voters across Iowa offer a window into how the president's standing has leveled off, especially among the independents and Republicans who contributed not just to his margin of victory in the caucuses here but also to the optimism among his supporters that his election would be a break from standard-issue politics."

*** Abortion returns to the health-care debate: It has been a while since the talk of "death panels" or abortion has dominated the health-care debate. And it's probably not a coincidence that the prospects for reform now seem better than they did during that crazy August. But the issue of abortion has returned for the Democrats. The Washington Post: "While House leaders are moving toward a vote on health-care legislation by the end of the week, enough Democrats are threatening to oppose the measure over the issue of abortion to create a question about its passage… 'I will continue whipping my colleagues to oppose bringing the bill to the floor for a vote until a clean vote against public funding for abortion is allowed,' Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) said… He said last week that 40 Democrats could vote with him to oppose the legislation -- enough to derail the bill."

*** The GOP's health plan: Meanwhile, House Republicans plan to -- finally! -- unveil their health-care bill this week. And it doesn't look anything like any of the Democrats' legislation. Two big differences: Their legislation won't prevent health insurers from denying coverage to those with preexisting conditions, and it won't provide money to help those without health insurance. House Minority Leader John Boehner said "that the measure would not include language banning insurance companies from denying coverage to consumers with preexisting conditions, a prominent feature of Democrats' bills in both the House and Senate," the Washington Post writes. "And while some Republican health-care proposals have called for giving individuals tax credits to help them buy insurance, that idea won't be included in this week's GOP bill because it would cost too much."

*** Obama's day: The president meets at the White House with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at 9:10 am ET (Merkel also addresses Congress today). At 2:40 pm, Obama participates in a U.S.-E.U. summit. And he meets with Defense Secretary Gates at 4:30 pm and with Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) at 5:15 pm (both of which are closed to the press).

Countdown to MA Special Primary: 35 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 77 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 364 days

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The Wall Street Journal: "Republicans appear positioned for strong results in three hard-fought elections Tuesday. But isolated, off-year contests aren't always reliable indicators of what will happen in the wider federal and state races held in even-numbered years."

More: "Democrats and Republicans are jostling to glean messages from voters in a race for a U.S. House seat in far northern New York, as well as from contests for governor in New Jersey and Virginia. Republicans, increasingly optimistic, say the contests foreshadow trouble for President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party's ambitious agenda heading toward the 2010 congressional elections."

The Wall Street Journal also takes a final look at the oft-scrutinized "intensity factor" that is seen as a determining factor in the outcome of today's gubernatorial and special elections. For New Jersey, the Journal writes. "It's entirely possible that the intensity meter in this governor's race will show there simply isn't much on either side. An ugly campaign appears to have made each major candidate less appealing." Virginia's "race is where an intensity gap seems most likely, and most beneficial to Republicans. And in New York's 23rd district, "the question … is whether national Republican leaders have managed to create more intensity on their side -- or, perversely, have managed to generate it for the Democratic underdog" by throwing their support behind the third-party Conservative candidate. "Watch what kind of intensity -- if any -- now emerges among moderate Republicans."

USA Today: "Elections in a handful of states today, including governors' races in New Jersey and Virginia, loom as the first significant electoral test of the coalition that swept President Obama and congressional Democrats to victory one year ago. This time, Democrats are braced for a tough night: Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds trailed Republican Bob McDonnell by double digits in late statewide polls. In New Jersey, Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine was neck-and-neck with GOP challenger Chris Christie."

The New York Times' Nagourney writes, "Some Democrats said they are concerned that an early surge of support for a third-party candidate, Christopher J. Daggett, which appeared to come at the expense of Mr. Christie, is now fading as anti-Corzine voters settle on Mr. Christie. Polls close at 8 p.m., and if the race turns out to be as close with as polls suggest, this could be yet another close American election with no conclusion by the time everyone goes to sleep."

MASSACHUSETTS: "Today, after a half dozen debates, thousands of handshakes, and countless visits to coffee shops and senior centers, Councilor at Large Michael F. Flaherty Jr.'s upstart campaign for change confronts Mayor Thomas M. Menino's vaunted political machine as voters go to the polls to decide whether to give the incumbent an unprecedented fifth term in office."

The Boston Globe editorial page endorsed incumbent Mayor Menino: "While we are encouraged by his strong record of financial management, we also urge him to take the opportunity, in an unprecedented fifth term, to foster a dialogue about the future of the city."

NEW JERSEY: Online bettors are split between Jon Corzine and Chris Christie in wagering which will be New Jersey's next governor, Bloomberg News says. Bets that Corzine would win a second term traded at 48.5, "meaning that the online exchange puts his chances of being re-elected at 48.5 percent." Christie's bets traded at 49, putting his odds slightly higher than Corzine's.

NEW YORK: The top-ranking House Republican told reporters on Monday that he regrets having supported former GOP House candidate Dede Scozzafava… "This lady clearly has as agenda that's different than most Republicans; she was out there promoting herself," House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) said."

Joe Biden was in NY-23 yesterday, throwing around some red meat and attacking Sarah Palin, Dick Armey and Tim Pawlenty: "The fact of the matter is, Sarah Palin thinks the answer to energy is 'drill, baby, drill,' " said Biden. "It's a lot more complicated, Sarah!"

Palin responded, of course, on her Facebook page: "There's one way to tell Vice President Biden that we're tired of folks in Washington distorting our message and hampering our nation's progress: Hoffman, Baby, Hoffman!"

VIRGINIA: In their last appeals before voters hit the polls, Creigh Deeds (D) and Bob McDonnell (R) appeared in the Charlottesville area yesterday. In an airport parking lot, McDonnell pointed to his sizeable lead in polls and the enthusiasm of Republican voters, saying, "We're pushing hard in these last hours and we've been energized by the polls, but we're far more energized by the people we're meeting." Deeds, meanwhile, urged voters to show up to the polls today: "I'm all in this campaign for you, I need you to be all in for me." He added, ""I know the votes are out there. It's up to us to get them out."

"President Obama on Monday admonished President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan that he must take on what American officials have said he avoided during his first term: the rampant corruption and drug trade that have fueled the resurgence of the Taliban," the New York Times front-pages. "What he is seeking, Mr. Obama told reporters … , is 'a sense on the part of President Karzai that, after some difficult years in which there has been some drift, that in fact he's going to move boldly and forcefully forward and take advantage of the international community's interest in his country to initiate reforms internally. That has to be one of our highest priorities.'"

The Hill notes the record number of lobbyists who've quit since Obama's taken office: "The giant spike in resignations came just after the Obama administration instituted strict new rules on lobbyist activity. The White House banned employees from receiving gifts from lobbyists and announced that any lobbyist hired by the executive branch could not work on the same issues on which he or she lobbied." (Over 1,400 lobbyists 'deregistered' with Congress in the second quarter of 2009, according to a study conducted jointly by the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP) and OMB Watch. Typically, only a few hundred lobbyists quit each quarter.)"

More: "But the study's authors warn that not all of the deregistered lobbyists may actually be out of business. 'At the federal level, many people working in the lobbying industry are not registered lobbyists, instead adopting titles such as 'senior adviser' or other executive monikers, thereby avoiding federal disclosure requirements under the Lobbying Disclosure Act,' CRP and OMB Watch said in a statement."

"After months of criticizing Democrats' health-care proposals without offering one of their own, House Republicans are preparing to unveil a reform bill this week to compete with the majority's ideas," the Washington Post reports. "Having lambasted the bill unveiled by Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for being nearly 2,000 pages long with a price tag of $1 trillion, Republicans plan to offer a measure much narrower in scope and more modest in its goals. GOP leaders are unable to say yet how much their bill would cost or how many Americans would gain health insurance under their plan, but Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) said Monday that his party's bill was sent to the Congressional Budget Office for scoring. 'We expect it to be ready in the next several days,' Boehner said."

Welcome to crazy land… "I believe that the greatest fear that we all should have ... to our freedom comes from this room, this very room, and what may happen later this week in terms of a tax increase bill masquerading as a health care bill," Representative Virginia Foxx said on the House floor. "I believe we have more to fear from the potential of that bill passing than we do from any terrorist right now in any country." (Just asking, but where's the outrage from Republican leadership, which was outraged over Alan Grayson's "Die Quickly" remarks?)

"Centrist Democrats in the House are moving toward the "yes" column on healthcare reform, triggering optimism among leadership officials that they will soon have the votes to pass their $894-billion measure," The Hill writes. "Other than Rep. Earl Pomeroy's (D-N.D.) pronouncement in a closed-door caucus meeting, there have been few public conversions. But many of those once considered 'no' votes, especially on the question of a 'robust' public option, have moved into undecided, "leaning yes," or are fully supporting the bill."

That said… "Still, leaders on Monday didn't have the firm 218 votes in the Democratic Caucus that they will need before they're willing to go to a vote on the final legislation. That bill, called a 'manager's amendment,' could be released Tuesday, setting the stage for a vote that could occur as early as Friday."

"Sen. Joe Lieberman has reached a private understanding with Majority Leader Harry Reid that he will not block a final vote on healthcare reform, according to two sources briefed on the matter… [S]ources said Reid's staff is telling liberal interest groups that Lieberman (Conn.) has assured Reid he will vote with Democrats in the necessary procedural vote to end debate, perhaps with intentions to change the bill."

Lieberman's office is pushing back against the story.

Also, don't miss Rep. John Dingell's (D) op-ed in support of the House health-care bill. "Reform is neither easy nor cheap, but the cost of inaction is far greater – in terms of lives lost, quality of life, and dollars. Make no mistake, if we don't reduce costs we face certain economic disaster. My father was one of the first members of Congress to fight to change the private insurance system in place today. His fight began in 1943, 66 years ago. If we go another 66 years with costs continuing to rise at the same rate they have over the last three decades, estimates project health care spending to approach 100 percent of our GDP. This is simply not sustainable."

From NBC's Athena Jones
President Obama called Afghan President Hamid Karzai to congratulate him on being named the winner of that country's election, and urged him to work to improve governance and end corruption there.

Karzai was named the victor when his opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, dropped out of a runoff election scheduled for Nov. 7. The second round was called after allegations of fraud -- backed up by international monitors -- marred the August vote. But Abdullah argued that not enough protections had been put in place to avoid a repeat of the earlier problems.

Video: President Hamid Karzai won a second term after the Afghan election commission canceled the scheduled runoff race. How will this affect President Obama's decision on troop deployment to the region?

Administration officials have consistently contended the United States must have a credible, legitimate partner heading the government in Afghanistan in order to accomplish America's chief national security goals of denying Al Qaeda a safe haven in the country and preventing the Taliban from taking over there.

Obama's remarks echoed those of White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, who told reporters earlier in the day that Karzai was the country's legitimate leader, but stopped short of calling him a credible partner. The president said Afghanistan's electoral was "messy," but that the final outcome was in line with Afghanistan's constitution.

"I did emphasize to President Karzai that the American people and the international community as a whole want to continue to partner with him and his government in achieving prosperity and security in Afghanistan," Obama said. "But I emphasized this has to be a point in time in which we begin to write a new chapter based on improved governance, a much more serious effort to eradicate corruption, joint efforts to accelerate the training of Afghan security forces so that the Afghan people can provide for their own security."

Karzai's government has faced widespread charges of corruption, and his brother has been accused of involvement in the country's lucrative drug trade, which helps fund insurgents.

The war in Afghanistan has grown increasingly unpopular in America as casualties rise and former officials from the region question the U.S. mission there. Some argue the mere presence of foreign troops in the country -- and the U.S. backing of a government seen as ineffective and illegitimate -- is what is fueling the insurgency.

Obama said he had called on Karzai to "move boldly and forcefully" to initiate reforms.

"That has to be one of our highest priorities," the president said. "[Karzai] assured me that he understood the importance of this moment. But as I indicated to him, the proof is not going to be in words; it's gonna be in deeds. And we are looking forward to consulting closely with his government in the weeks and months to come to ensure that the Afghan people are actually seeing progress on ground."

The president and his national security team continue their deliberations about whether to send thousands more troops to Afghanistan. The White House has said that a decision on strategy is still "weeks away" -- a phrase they have been using repeatedly for at least a month. Some Republican critics say Obama is dragging his feet.

From NBC's Kelly Paice
As supporters wage their uphill campaign to pass an energy/climate change bill in the Senate, the Al Gore-backed group Alliance for Climate Protection today launched what it's calling an online, field and advertising "Repower America" campaign to get the legislation through Congress. 
 
In a conference call with reporters, Maggie Fox, the alliance's president and CEO, explained that the organization was "launched in late 2006 by ... Gore with the idea of building a movement of showing urgency" for the need of a clean energy environment and "turning it into an opportunity."
 
Fox said that this new effort launched today includes an integrated campaign featuring two TV ads and an interactive wall on its Web site showing "the incredible, fierce, and growing support of the movement and action on a clean energy economy this year." More than 11,000 people have posted on the organization's "Repower Wall," which provides a forum for diverse voices -- including Americans across the country, business leaders, and faith-based activists -- to discuss how to move America into a clean energy mindset.
 
Fox described the campaign so far "a hub, an aggregator, and an amplifier" for the clean energy movement.
 
Rev. Richard Cizik, president of the New Evangelicals and a voice for the Repower America campaign, reiterated that climate change is a global issue, and said that in meeting with religious leaders across the world that there is a common belief in protecting our environment. "They all say, as people of different religions, that this is what their holy book calls us all to do." David Boundy, Repower America's campaign manager, stated that the purpose of the campaign is to "combat the notion that change cannot be made in this country."
 
Another supporter of the Repower America campaign, Exelon Corporation Executive Vice President Elizabeth Moler expressed her corporation's strong support for passage of climate change legislation as soon as possible. Moler said that Exelon was "very gratified" with the House when it passed its energy/climate change bill in June. But she understands "that it's an uphill battle in the Senate," where moderate Democrats and Republicans pose a threat in supporting less ambitious climate legislation. However, Fox said that Sens. John Kerry (D-MA) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) represent the organization's perspective and are "working to move legislation this year or at least put together a package that bounces into next year."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
In New Jersey, the state Democratic party appears to be running robocalls targeting Republican base voters, bashing Chris Christie (R) and urging them to "Remember Chris Daggett's words: 'It's never wrong to vote for the right person.'"

That's a line, by the way, that Daggett (I) likes to use.

You can here the audio here in an article by the Star-Ledger, the New Jersey paper that first reported the story.

Daggett's campaign has said a lot about the frustration of New Jersey voters. And about just what an impact he's had -- albeit inconsistent. As Daggett's numbers started to rise, Christie's started to drop, and the Republican Governors Association took notice.

Video: N.J. Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie are darting through the state, in a final push for votes in a race that's too close to call.

It started running ads against Daggett, his negatives started going up and Christie started pulling back into the lead or at least closer in most polls. When all the votes are counted Tuesday, if Christie pulls it off, the RGA certainly deserves some credit here.

Democrats are noticing the dropoff and that voters who were inclined to Christie are starting to go back to him, and are now trying to figure out a way to stop the flow.

Again, Daggett won't win here, but his impact will be something political observers will have to factor in when talking about this race. Of course, Jon Corzine's (D) camp acts like Daggett doesn't even exist, and that his candidacy (and Christie's floundering) have nothing to do with the fact that their candidate even has a shot.

 

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The New York governor's office just released county-by-county data on stimulus spending. (Here, here, and here.) It breaks down where -- and on what -- money was spent.

A First Read analysis of the data shows that almost $1 billion was allocated to counties in -- either wholly or partially -- New York's 23rd congressional district.

The six counties that are completely in the district -- Clinton, Franklin, Saint Lawrence, Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego -- received almost $326 million.

An additional $602 million was allocated to the five counties that are partially in the district -- Oneida, Madison, Hamilton, Essex, and Fulton.

There is no data available on the number of jobs created by county, a spokesman for the governor's office said.

Jobs have been a big issue in Upstate New York. It's something Hillary Clinton campaigned on when she ran for Senate, and what every gubernatorial candidate promises to change when they campaign Upstate. New York State has been particularly hard hit by manufacturing jobs losses. In the past decade, since 1999, New York has lost more than 293,000 manufacturing jobs.

From NBC's Luke Russert
After the White House acknowledged the re-election of Afghan President Hamid Karzai today, both Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) and Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee Ike Skelton (D-MO) released statements supporting Gen. Stanley McChrystal's plan for a counter insurgency strategy within Afghanistan.

Boehner said, "In March, the President outlined a counter-insurgency strategy, and I support that strategy. It's time to do what is necessary to make that strategy work. There are no more excuses. It's time for the Obama Administration to give our commander on the ground the resources he needs to protect our troops and achieve the goals the President has said he supports."

Skelton, one of the most powerful and important Democrats on the Hill when it comes to war policy echoed Boehner's words, "I continue to believe that General McChrystal's counter insurgency plan is the right approach, including his call to build capability at the local level."

Skelton continued, "The recent flawed election process has reinforced the need to also push for the reform of the national Afghan government, to increase legitimacy and help build a capable partner for our efforts in Afghanistan. Pursuing al Qaeda and ensuring that its members can't use Afghanistan as a safe haven is a vital national security interest for the U.S., and a minimally functioning and legitimate Afghan government is an important part of that effort."

Republicans continue to see the war in Afghanistan as an issue they can use to their advantage politically. Many Republicans believe that each day that Obama does not announce a clear, comprehensive war strategy is a day in which they have won the spin war on the issue.

Skelton's urging of the president to adopt McChrystal's policy shows a continuing rift within the Democratic Party between hawkish Democrats who support McChrystal and a troop increase, and the more dovish progressives who are reluctant to support a war that they see as one with no end in sight. Privately, many Democrats say the divide is of great concern because of its ability to split the party into two emotionally driven, ideologically different camps.

All eyes will be on the White House in the coming weeks, as officials continue to decide what the best course of action is for the country and soldiers overseas.

From WMAQ's Mary Ann Ahern (of NBC's Chicago affiliate)
Sen. Roland Burris, who is needed by the Obama administration for those 60 votes to pass the healthcare bill, said, "I will only vote for a bill with a strong public option."

Burris delivered his remarks at Stroger Hospital in Chicago.

"In order to achieve real reform" there must be lowered cost, Burris added.

From NBC's Pete Williams
The U.S. Supreme Court today declined to take up the case of James Ford Seale, a central figure in an infamous racially motivated crime in 1964. Today's action leaves his conviction standing. But two justices said the court should have taken the case, because the issue will come up again in other cold cases from the 1960s.

The FBI accused Seale and other Ku Klux Klansmen of kidnapping two black college students in 1964, beating them in a forest, and dumping them, still alive, into the Mississippi River. Seale and another man were arrested at the time, but local authorities declined to prosecute them for killing the students, Charles Moore and his friend, Henry Dee. Moore's brother, Thomas, helped get the case re-opened, and Seale was re-arrested in 2007, this time on federal charges, and later convicted.

When the crime was committed in 1964, a kidnapping that resulted in harm to the victim was punishable by death. And that is true today. But for more than two decades, violating that law was not a capital offense. There's no statute of limitations for crimes that carry the death penalty, but there is for others.  Accordingly, Seale challenged his conviction, arguing that when the death penalty was taken off the books, only a five-year statute of limitations applied to the crime. Once that period elapsed, he could no longer be charged, even though the death penalty was later revived, he claimed.

A federal appeals court disagreed and upheld Seale's conviction, but it urged the Supreme Court to straighten out the law. Today, the justices declined to do so.  But two justices -- the liberal John Paul Stevens and the conservative Antonin Scalia -- said the court should have taken the case. It's an important issue, they said, "that may well determine the outcome of a number of cases of ugly racial violence remaining from the 1960's."

From NBC's Mark Murray
Now that the NY-23 special congressional election has essentially turned into a two-person race, a new Siena Research poll has Conservative Doug Hoffman leading Democrat Bill Owens by five percentage points, 41%-36%, with Republican Dede Scozzafava (who withdrew from the race on Saturday) now getting just 6%.

But this might be the most interesting number: 18% are undecided -- a very large number with just a day before the election.

"With nearly one in five voters undecided the day before Election Day and voters still trying to comprehend the dramatic withdrawal of Scozzafava, and her subsequent endorsement of Owens, this is still a wide open race," Siena's Steve Greenberg said. "The two candidates and campaigns are both in a sprint to try and convince these undecided voters to support them. Which ever campaign succeeds in convincing the undecided voters and then getting them to the polls tomorrow, will likely be looking at a victory tomorrow night."

The poll was taken of 606 likely voters in congressional district, and it has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The GOP's two paths: Republicans are set to learn two very contradictory lessons from their likely victories tomorrow in Virginia and NY-23. In Virginia's gubernatorial race, as we've written before, Bob McDonnell (R) has hugged the middle, portraying himself as a bipartisan legislator and attorney general who has racked up significant endorsements from Democrats. He also has owned the issues of the economy and taxes. But in the NY-23 special congressional election, the lesson has been to embrace the right -- even if it means backing a third-party candidate (Doug Hoffman) over its party's more moderate nominee (Dede Scozzafava), who suspended her campaign on Saturday and is now backing the Democrat in the race (Bill Owens). Those events over the weekend turned a three-way congressional race that the Dems could win -- by splitting the GOP vote -- into a likely Republican victory. However, First Read has learned that Scozzafava is now taping robo-calls for Owens. By the way, it's worth remembering that McDonnell cut a deal with Virginia GOP Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling to avoid a primary. Could McDonnell have run as a centrist in the general had he run in a primary in the spring?

*** The ideological civil war in 2010: So which path does the Republican Party take as we head into 2010? As of right now, it looks like the NY-23 one (even though McDonnell is about to do something that Jerry Kilgore, George Allen, Jim Gilmore, and John McCain didn't do this century: win in the battleground state of Virginia). On Saturday, Marco Rubio, who's taking on the more moderate Charlie Crist in next year's Florida Senate primary, delivered this message to conservatives on National Review Online: The "developments in New York's 23rd Congressional District should send an encouraging message to conservatives everywhere. It is not only right and necessary to stand up for our principles; it is also an appealing strategy to Americans yearning for less government and more fiscal restraint in Washington." The conservative-vs.-moderate battle also will play out next year in Texas (where Kay Bailey Hutchison is taking on Rick Perry) and in Utah (where Sen. Bob Bennett is receiving a challenge from the right). And don't forget that this divide already forced Sen. Arlen Specter switch parties earlier this year.

*** NY-23 and 2012: Hoffman's likely victory is either the first anecdote political analysts will use to explain how the GOP built itself back up as a grassroots party to nominate (insert semi-unknown Republican here) and defeat Obama in 2012. Or it will become what Democrats see as an ideological fight that turned off the political middle and set the stage for Obama to win re-election, thanks to a Republican Party that couldn't appeal to independents. That was the argument David Plouffe made on "Meet the Press" yesterday. "Sarah Palin, the other Republican candidates who are likely to run, the Limbaughs and Becks of the world are basically hanging a 'moderates need not apply' sign outside the Republican National Committee headquarters," he said. "And for a party that has historic lows right now … it's a ... curious strategy to kind of repair this damage."

*** Charlie Crist, you're next: Indeed, if Hoffman wins in NY-23 tomorrow, Charlie Crist will most definitely be the right's next target in this ideological civil war. And he's already hurting. A new Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Bay News 9 poll over the weekend found that only 42% think that Crist is doing a good or excellent job as governor -- his worst rating in his 34 months in office. But the biggest worry for him? "Even most fellow Republicans don't like the job he's doing. That 51 percent of them rate Crist's performance as fair or poor is particularly ominous for someone facing an aggressive U.S. Senate primary challenge from former state House Speaker Marco Rubio of Miami." It's snowballing for Crist. As he tries to appeal to the GOP base, that base is abandoning him. Meanwhile, Dems and indies won't bail him out now; they are becoming more partisan, too. This is all turning into a potential political nightmare for Crist. Here's some irony for you: Had Crist decided to seek a second term, he'd probably cruise to re-election (as top Dem Alex Sink wouldn't be running). Now, trying to jump to the Senate after just one term as governor (nearly half of which he's spending as a political candidate) will be its own liability.

*** What if Corzine Loses? With all the focus on NY-23 and Virginia, however, don't forget about New Jersey's gubernatorial contest, which will probably be the closest race Tuesday night. In fact, President Obama made his third campaign swing for Jon Corzine (D) yesterday. While Corzine has trailed for most of the year and while his approval numbers remain stuck in the 30s and 40s, almost everything has gone right for him in the final two months: 1) Chris Christie's campaign has floundered, 2) Chris Daggett's independent candidacy gives Corzine a path to victory without winning 50% of the vote, and 3) Obama's recent events for Corzine and the Democratic Party's ground game in Jersey might be what Democrats need to turn a deadlocked race into a Dem win. But what happens if Corzine loses? How will you be able to explain it? (The final Quinnipiac poll shows movement for Christie, with him up by two (42%-40%) after trailing by five last week.)

*** Rationalizing New Jersey: Well, the chief reason will have been Corzine's unpopularity; indeed having EVERYTHING going his way these past two months has been the only way he might win tomorrow. But you also can't dismiss concerns about the Democratic base (that for the first time in quite a while, the Dem base in New Jersey wouldn't have been able to push the Democrat across the finish line), or the fact that incumbents across the country better be worried about their prospects next year (Chris Dodd, Harry Reid, Ted Strickland, Bill Ritter, and Chet Culver, we're looking at you). In addition, on CNBC this morning, Christie said Obama will have no impact on the race, and he took pains not to criticize the president. So Christie's spin on Obama and the White House's spin on Obama are probably in sync! By the way, fair or not, Democrats better be ready to parry a new GOP talking point that none of the ACTUAL Democratic nominees running in NJ, VA, NY-23, and NYC mayor may break 45% on Tuesday. And in every single one of those states/districts/cities, Obama nabbed well over 50% in 2008.

*** Dede wasn't the only one who quit a race this past weekend: Turning from the 2009 horse races to foreign policy, the big news in Afghanistan is that Abdullah Abdullah withdrew from his runoff against Karzai, the runoff was canceled, and Karzai was declared the winner. So what does this mean for the Obama administration as it weighs sending more troops into Afghanistan? It's unclear at this point. After his meeting with his Joint Chiefs last Friday, Obama asked them to come back to the White House (possibly as early as this week) to present him with more options. The president is not happy with the choices that he has in front of him, including Gen. Stanley McCrystal's request for approximately 40,000 more troops. While nothing has been ruled out, the fact that Obama is asking for more options than what was already on the table, including the 40,000 troop request, is a strong sign that whatever number the president approves, it will likely be less than the 40,000 number. As for timing, it's also looking less likely the president will make a decision -- let alone announce a decision -- before he leaves for Asia on Nov. 11, meaning the election decision in Afghanistan may have less impact on timing than many thought.

*** McChrystal and Pat Tillman: Speaking of McChrystal and Afghanistan… On "Meet" yesterday, author Jon Krakauer discussed his new book on Pat Tillman's death in Afghanistan, noting that McChrystal had approved paperwork for Tillman's Silver Star, despite having evidence Tillman had died due to friendly fire. "After Tillman died, the most important thing to know is that within--instantly, within 24 hours certainly, everybody on the ground, everyone intimately involved knew it was friendly fire," Krakauer said. "There's never any doubt it was friendly fire.  McChrystal was told within 24 hours it was friendly fire. Also, immediately they started this paperwork to give Tillman a Silver Star. And the Silver Star ended up being at the center of the cover-up."

*** Geithner on taxes: Also on "Meet" yesterday, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner didn't rule out the Obama administration having to raise taxes to shore up the nation's debt, and he struggled mightily NOT to actually admit it. "I just want to say this very clearly. [Obama] was committed in the campaign to make--he said in the campaign and he is committed to make sure we do this in a way that is not going to add to the burden on people making less than $250,000 a year. Now, it's going to be hard to do that, but he's committed to doing that and we can do that… We're going to have to do it in a way that's going to help to meet that test, meet that commitment, the commitment he made, to do it in a way that's fair to Americans and make sure we do it in a way that's going to allow--provide for growth and recovery going forward. But we can do this. You know, this is not beyond our capacity as a country to do." Has "hard choices" become code for "tax hikes"?

*** Fast facts for tomorrow: One day out until tomorrow's NJ/VA/NY-23 contests, here are some fast facts you might want handy to sound smart around water cooler, at your election-night party, or while blogging/tweeting tomorrow night: Since 1977 (for eight-straight times), the party controlling the White House has always lost Virginia's gubernatorial contest… Since 1989 (five-straight times), the party controlling the White House has always lost New Jersey's gubernatorial race… Republicans have lost the last four major contests in VA (the '05 Gov race, the '06 and '08 Senate races, and in last year's presidential)… And even if Chris Christie wins in NJ, he'll likely keep this GOP alive: No Republican in a statewide race in NJ has received 50% since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

*** More 2009 trivia: The Deeds-McDonnell race in VA is a rematch from 2005, when McDonnell bested Deeds by just 360 votes in their race for state attorney general (something tells us the margin will be a bit bigger tomorrow night)… Dems hold more than a 700,000-voter-registration advantage in NJ, but almost half of all state voters (46%) are registered as unaffiliated… Corzine and Mike Bloomberg have already spent a combined $371 million on their political races since 2000… A Democrat has not controlled the NY-23 congressional district since the 19th century… If Republicans lose NY-23, they will control just two of the states 29 congressional districts; in 2006, they controlled nine, including seven Upstate.

Countdown to Election Day 2009: 1 day
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 36 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 78 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 365 days

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"Afghan election officials canceled a presidential runoff and proclaimed the reelection of President Hamid Karzai on Monday, a day after Karzai's top challenger declared he would not take part in a second round of voting scheduled for Saturday because of a persistent risk of fraud," the Washington Post says.

The Boston Globe calls it Karzai's "win by default." And it adds this context: "American officials hope to help restore legitimacy to Karzai's government by en couraging him to build a reform-minded government that is ethnically representative and includes Abdullah's followers. US Ambassador Karl Eikenberry and UN mission chief Kai Eide negotiated with the two camps late into the night Saturday about a power-sharing deal, according to the Western diplomat. But the negotiations broke down early yesterday when Karzai refused a formula for dividing Cabinet posts. If the deal had been accepted, Abdullah would have conceded rather than simply withdraw his candidacy, the diplomat said. Abdullah's decision not to call for a boycott may indicate he is open to talks."

Video: A Morning Meeting panel discusses whether the cancellation of the runoff election in Afghanistan will impact President Obama's decision on troop deployment

The New York Times' analysis wonders if the Karzai government will have legitimacy. "It will not be easy. As the evidence mounted in late summer that Mr. Karzai's forces had sought to win re-election through widespread fraud to defeat his main challenger, Abdullah Abdullah, administration officials made no secret of their disgust. How do you consider sending tens of thousands of additional American troops, they asked in meetings in the White House, to prop up an Afghan government regarded as illegitimate by many of its own people? The answer was supposed to be a runoff election. Now, administration officials argue that Mr. Karzai will have to regain that legitimacy by changing the way he governs, at a moment when he is politically weaker than at any time since 2001." 
 
Abdullah Abdullah's decision to boycott his state's runoff election does not complicate the president's plans for Afghanistan, White House aide Valerie Jarrett said Sunday. Rather, Abdullah's withdrawal from the November contest because of concerns about its fairness is a mostly 'political' move that 'does not markedly change the situation,' explained White House Senior Adviser David Axelrod."

President Obama campaigned for New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) on Sunday, as the incumbent governor cast himself as "the president's proxy," seeking to mobilize the 21 percent of Democrats who, in a recent Quinnipiac poll, said they hadn't planned to vote for Corzine's re-election. "We will not lose this election if all of you are as committed as you were last year," Obama told the crowd. "You will not only re-elect Jon Corzine for another four years but put the state on a path to success."

Video: President Obama stumped for New Jersey Democrat Jon Corzine, the only governor seeking re-election this fall.

The New York Times: "Mr. Obama's appearances in Camden and Newark underscored the White House's determination to stave off defeat for Mr. Corzine, the only Democratic incumbent up for re-election this year, who is facing an aggressive challenge from Christopher J. Christie, a Republican… Most polls show the race too close to call; Mr. Obama's visit to New Jersey on Sunday was his third to stump for Mr. Corzine."

Has the White House's "arms-length strategy" on health care paid off? The New York Times has a piece suggesting that it has. "After months of plodding work by five Congressional committees and weeks of back-room bargaining by Democratic leaders, President Obama's arms-length strategy on health care appears to be paying dividends, with the House and the Senate poised to take up legislation to insure nearly all Americans."

Tomorrow, the liberal group Alliance for Justice will hold an event at American University's Washington College of Law to pressure Attorney General Eric Holder "to release the Office of Professional Responsibility's report (OPR) on the conduct of the lawyers who authorized torture during the Bush administration," per the group. More: "Daniel Levin, head of the Department of Justice's Office of Legal Counsel from 2004-2005, will speak publicly about this issue."  

The White House hosted 2,000 Trick or Treaters at the White House on Saturday.

Dede Scozzafava, a moderate Republican whose candidacy for the NY-23 special election "had set off a storm of national conservative opposition" withdrew from the race on Saturday, leaving it a two-way battle between Democrat Bill Owens and third-party Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman, seen by many Republicans, including Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty as the only candidate with conservative bona fides. But some marquee Republicans warned of a third-party trend. "If we get into a cycle where every time one side loses, they run a third-party candidate, we'll make Pelosi speaker for life and guarantee Obama's re-election," said former House speaker Newt Gingrich. The New York Times writes that Republican candidates in New Hampshire, Colorado, California and Illinois might receive challenges from third-party contenders trying to claim the mantle of the Republican party.

After suspending her own campaign, Scozzafava came out in favor of Democratic candidate Bill Owens, writing in an email sent to supporters: "To address the tough challenges ahead, we must rise above partisanship and politics and work together. There's too much at stake in this election to do otherwise." Writes the New York Daily News, "it's a major blow to Hoffman, whose campaign arguably would have been better served if Scozzafava remained officially neutral."

House Minority Leader John Boehner defended his party in the wake of Scozzafava's withdrawal. "Clearly she would be on the left side of our party," said Boehner, who had financially supported the campaign of the New York assemblywoman, The Hill writes. Boehner added, "We accept moderates in our party and we want moderates in our party."

Roll Call looks at the pressure starting to mount on NRCC head Pete Sessions: "But two messy special elections later, the NRCC lags behind its Democratic counterpart as well as the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Republican National Committee in fundraising -- and the committee is more than $10 million behind where the Cole-led NRCC was at this point in the 2007 election cycle. This disparity has caused several Members, staff and GOP political operatives to question whether Sessions has delivered on his commitment to excel where he thought Cole had failed."

MAINE: The Washington Post parachutes into the battle over gay marriage in Maine. "Maine residents will decide Tuesday whether to repeal a law allowing same-sex marriage, an effort that has succeeded in every state where it has been put before voters. Public opinion surveys in Maine show a dead heat on Question 1, which would cancel the marriage statute that passed the legislature in May and was signed by Gov. John E. Baldacci (D)."

More: "In the five other states where gay men and lesbians are allowed to marry their partners, permission was granted by courts or legislatures."

MASSACHUSETTS: "As the most competitive race for mayor in 16 years entered its final days, the campaigns continued their hectic pace," the Boston Globe writes. "After the church visits, both candidates attended rallies in a final push to pump up supporters who will help get people to the polls tomorrow… Boston election officials said more voters are registered for this election than for any mayoral race in more than a decade. There are 283,186 voters on the rolls. That's roughly 10,000 more than in 2005 and 25,000 more than in 2001. Some 6,500 have registered since the preliminary election in September."

NEW JERSEY: A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll finds Republican Chris Christie leading Jon Corzine 43%-42% (a statistical tie) with independent Chris Daggett getting 8%. The poll was conducted Oct. 28-30. Bloomberg News: "The poll showed Christie has the support of 51 percent of independents compared with Corzine, the choice of 29 percent of independents. Daggett's support among independent voters fell to 10 percent from 22 percent on Oct. 9." Pollster Patrick Murray said that if Democrats don't vote in droves on November 3rd, "Christie may eke out the win." 
 
A Quinnipiac poll shows Christie leading Corzine 42%-40%, with Daggett getting 12%. The poll was conducted from Oct. 27-Nov. 1.

VIRGINIA: A new Richmond Times-Dispatch poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon, put Republican Bob McDonnell ahead of Democrat Creigh Deeds 53%-41%. 
 
The liberal-leaning Talking Points Memo writes that McDonnell's lead is due to undecided voters "coming home" for the Republican. The last Mason-Dixon poll, taken in early October, showed that "twelve percent of likely voters had not yet made up their minds in the race…Between then and now, that number shrank to six percent, giving McDonnell his new 12-point lead." 
 
In their final days of campaign stops, McDonnell and Deeds sounded familiar themes yesterday. McDonnell spoke about "free-market, limited-government ideas in Virginia" at odds with "these massive new federal programs and taxes and intrusions in the free-enterprise system." Deeds decried the "pure hate aimed at this campaign," and said of his lagging poll numbers, "Polls can be discouraging, but you know what? The only poll that matters has yet to be taken."