From NBC's Ken Strickland
The Senate is waiting -- waiting for a cost estimate from the Congressional Budget Office, and waiting for Majority Leader Harry Reid to line up 60 votes to just get the health-care bill on the floor. The CBO numbers could come this later this week, according to Reid's office. But getting those 60 votes is still a big unknown.

Here's what we're watching for this week:
-- "When and how will Reid get 60 votes?" Centrist Democrats Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, and Blanche Lincoln are still noncommittal in supporting Reid's effort to get the bill on the floor. Unless Reid can find a way to get them on board -- change the bill, address their concerns, or presidential persuasion -- the bill can't get on the floor.
 
-- "Will Reid have a bill before Christmas (or Hanukkah or Kwanzaa)?" A cursory look at the calendar shows it's a tall order. But here's the sleeper issue: the CBO. When Democrats say they've sent the measure to the CBO for the cost estimate, they didn't send "a bill." They sent elements of a bill that include the public option/opt-out. This means if they get numbers back from the CBO this week, there's still work to do before it goes to the floor.

Video: Politico's Craig Gordon discusses a tentative schedule as to when a health reform bill may be passed.

Reid will still have to pull those separate elements together to write "the bill." And he might even have to send "the bill" back to CBO for another score. (What might seem like little tweaks around the edges can change the cost by billions.) And if Reid still doesn't have 60 votes, he may have to rewrite the bill. Last week, Landrieu told reporters that Olympia Snowe's trigger was still in play -- at least for her.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro, Kelly Paice, and Bobby Cervantes
Earlier today, we released our analysis of the Democratic votes FOR the House healthcare bill, and which Democrats could be or are vulnerable. We noted that there were about 60 vulnerable or potentially vulnerable Democrats, including 18 who represent districts won by McCain; another 10 where Obama got less than 55% and so did the member; six from districts where Obama got more than 55%, but the member got less than 55%; 14 in districts which Obama won by less than 55%, but the member won by more than 55%.

But, of the Republicans who voted AGAINST the legislation, there are actually more GOPers in most of these categories. Part of that is because of candidate Obama's sweeping ground game, the lack of McCain's, and an environment that was MUCH more favorable to the Democrats in 2008 than it likely will be in 2010. So, as Republicans would point out, Republicans probably have a built-in advantage in these House races. The conventional wisdom is that Democrats will likely lose double-digit numbers of seats, 15 or more. But it's interesting to see that there are so many Republicans in districts that have shown they could vote for a Democrat.

There are 92 Republicans in competitive or potentially competitive districts, including 29 Republican members from districts Obama won; 12 districts in which McCain and the member won less than 55%; 10 from which McCain won more than 55%, but the member won less than 55%; and 41 in which McCain won less than 55% and the member won more than 55%.

Obama-won districts (29)
Biggert (IL-13): Obama 54-44 (Biggert 54-44, 2006 won 58-42, Bush won 2004 55-45)
Bilbray (CA-50): Obama 51-47 (Bilbray 50-45, 2006 won 53-44, Bush won 2004 55-44)
Bono Mack (CA-45): Obama 52-47 (Bono Mack 58-42, Bush won 2004 56-43)
Calvert (CA-44): Obama 49.5-48.6 (Calvert 51-49, 2006 won 60-37, Bush won 2004 59-40)
Camp (MI-4): Obama 50-48 (Camp 62-36, Bush won 2004 55-44)
Campbell (CA-48): Obama 49.3-48.6 (Campbell 56-41, Bush won 2004 58-40)
Castle (DE-AL): Obama 62-37 (Castle 61-38, running for Senate, Kerry won 2004 53-46)
Dent (PA-15): Obama 56-43 (Dent 59-41, 2006 won 54-44, Kerry won 2004 50-49)
Dreier (CA-26): Obama 51-47 (Dreier 53-40, Bush won 2004 55-44)
Forbes (VA-4): Obama 50-49 (Forbes 60-40, Bush won 2004 57-43)
Kirk (IL-10): Obama 61-38 (Kirk 53-47)
Lance (NJ-7): Obama 50-49 (Lance 50-42)
Latham (IA-4): Obama 53-46 (Latham 61-39)
LoBiondo (NJ-2): Obama 54-45 (LoBiondo 59-39)
Lungren, Daniel E. (CA-3): Obama 49.3-48.8 (Lungren 50-44, Bush won 2004 58-41)
Manzullo (IL-16): Obama 53-46 (Manzullo 61-36, Bush won 2004 55-44)
McCotter (MI-11): Obama 54-45 (McCotter 51-45, 2006 won 54-43, Bush won 2004 52-47)
McKeon (CA-25): Obama 49-48 (McKeon 58-42)
Paulsen (MN-3): Obama 52-46 (Paulsen 48-41 freshman)
Petri (WI-6): Obama 50-49 (Petri 64-36)
Reichert (WA-8): Obama 56-42 (Reichert 53-47)
Rogers (MI-8): Obama 53-46 (Rogers 57-40)
Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18): Obama 51-49 (Ros-Lehtinen 58-42)
Roskam (IL-6): Obama 56-43 (Roskam 58-42)
Ryan (WI-1): Obama 51-47 (Ryan 64-35)
Terry (NE-2): Obama 50-49 (Terry 52-48, black 10%, Hisp 9%)
Tiberi (OH-12): Obama 54-44 (Tiberi 55-42)
Wolf (VA-10): Obama 53-46 (Wolf 59-39)
Young (FL-10): Obama 52-47 (Young 61-39)

McCain-won districts -55%/Rep -55 (12)
Bachmann (MN-6): McCain 53-45 (Bachmann 46-43, 2006 won 50-42)
Diaz-Balart, M. (FL-25): McCain 50-49 (Diaz-Balart, M. 53-47, Bush won 2004 56-44)
Lee (NY-26): McCain 52-46 (Lee 55-41)
Heller (NV-2): McCain 49-49 (Heller 52-41)
Luetkemeyer (MO-9): McCain 55-44 (Luetkemeyer 50-48, freshman)
McCaul (TX-10): McCain 55-44 (McCaul 54-43, 2006 won 55-40)
McClintock (CA-4): McCain 54-44 (McClintock 50.24-49.76, freshman, 2006 Republican Doolittle won 49-46)
Miller, Gary (CA-42): McCain 53-45 (Miller 60-40)
Posey (FL-15): McCain 51-48 (Posey 53-42)
Rohrabacher (CA-46): McCain 50-48 (Rohrbacher 53-43)
Thompson (PA-5): McCain 55-44 (Thompson 57-41)
Wilson (SC-2): McCain 54-45 (Wilson 54-46, 27% black)

McCain +55, Rep -55 (10):
Brown (SC-1): McCain 56-42 (Brown 52-48, 2006 won 60-38)
Cassidy (LA-6): McCain 57-41 (Cassidy 48-40, freshman, Democratic opponent Cazayoux won 2008 special election 49-46 against Republican Jenkins)
Fleming (LA-4): McCain 59-40 (Fleming 48.1-47.7, freshman, Republican won 2006 57-17)
Jenkins (KS-2): McCain 55-43 (Jenkins 51-46)
Lummis (WY-AL): McCain 65-33 (Lummis 53-43, freshman, 2006 Republican Cubin won 48.3-47.8)
Rogers (AL-3): McCain 56-43 (Rogers 53-46, 32% black)
Schmidt (OH-2): McCain 59-40 (Schmidt 45-38)
Shadegg (AZ-3): McCain 56-42 (Shaddegg 54-42)
Souder (IN-3): McCain 56-43 (Souder 55-40)
Young (AK-AL): McCain 59-38 (Young 50-45)

McCain -55, Rep +55 (41):
Akin (MO-2): McCain 55-44 (Akin 62-35)
Austria (OH-7): McCain 54-45 (Austria 58-42, freshman)
Bilirakis (FL-9): McCain 52-47 (Bilirakis 62-36, 2006 won 56-44)
Buchanan (FL-13): McCain 52-47 (Buchanan 56-37, 2006 won 50.1-49.9)
Cantor (VA-7): McCain 53-46 (Cantor 63-37)
Capito (WV-2): McCain 55-44 (Capito 57-43)
Coffman (CO-6): McCain 52-46 (Coffman 60-40, freshman)
Diaz-Balart, L. (FL-21): McCain 51-49 (Diaz-Balart, L. 58-42, Bush won 2004 57-43)
Ehlers (MI-3): McCain 49-49 (Ehlers 61-35)
Fortenberry (NE-1): McCain 54-44 (Fortenberry 70-30)
Johnson (IL-15): McCain 50-48 (Johnson 64-36)
Lewis (CA-41): McCain 54-44 (Lewis 62-38)
LaTourette (OH-14): McCain 49-49 (LaTourette 58-39)
Kline (MN-2): McCain 50-48 (Kline 57-43)
King (NY-3): McCain 52-47 (King 64-36)
Issa (CA-49): McCain 53-45 (Issa 58-37)
Hunter (CA-52): McCain 53-45 (Hunter 56-39)
Hoekstra (MI-2): McCain 51-47 (Hoekstra 62-35)
Graves (MO-6): McCain 54-45 (Graves 59-37)
Frelinghuysen (R-NJ-11): McCain 54-45 (Frelinghuysen 62-37)
Garrett (NJ-5): McCain 54-45 (Garrett 56-42)
Herger (CA-2): McCain 55-43 (Herger 58-42)
King (IA-5): McCain won 55-44 (King 60-37)
Latta (OH-5): McCain 53-45 (Latta 64-36)
Marchant (TX-24): McCain 55-44 (Marchant 56-41)
Murphy, Tim (PA-18): McCain 55-44 (Murphy 64-36)
Pence (IN-6): McCain 52-46 (Pence 64-33)
Pitts (PA-16): McCain 51-48 (Pitts 56-39)
Radanovich (CA-19): McCain 52-46 (Radanovich 98-1 94 wave redistricted after)
Rehberg (MT-AL): McCain 50-47 (Rehberg 64-32)
Rooney (FL-16): McCain 52-47 (Rooney 60-40)
Royce (CA-40): McCain 51-47 (Royce 63-37)
Shimkus (IL-19): McCain 54-44 (Shimkus 65-33)
Sessions (TX-32): McCain 53-46 (Sessions 57-41)
Smith (NJ-4): McCain 52-47 (Smith 66-33)
Turner (OH-3): McCain 51-47 (Turner 63-37)
Walden (OR-2): McCain 54-43 (Walden 70-26)
Wittman (VA-1): McCain 51-48 (Wittman 57-42)
McMorris Rodgers (WA-5): McCain 52-46 (McMorris Rodgers 65-35)
Mica (FL-7): McCain 53-46 (Mica 62-38)
Miller (MI-10): McCain 50-48 (Miller 66-31)

From NBC's Pete Williams
The U.S. Supreme Court has turned down an emergency application from lawyers for John Allen Muhammad, the DC-area sniper, clearing the way for his scheduled execution Tuesday.

*** UPDATE *** Justices John Paul Stevens and Sonia Sotomayor say states like Virginia should not be allow to rush the Supreme Court into deciding death penalty cases hours or days before scheduled executions.

Muhammad's lawyers asked the court to put his execution on hold so that it could consider his challenge to the death sentence. They claim Muhammad was mentally ill.

"This case highlights once again the perversity of executing inmates before their appeals process has been fully concluded," Stevens wrote today, with Sotomayor agreeing.

"By denying Muhammad's stay application, we have allowed Virginia to truncate our deliberative process on a matter -- involving a death row inmate -- that demands the most careful attention. This result is particularly unfortunate in light of the limited time Muhammad was given to make his case in the District Court."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
As we mentioned in First Thoughts: A First Read analysis of Saturday's House healthcare vote finds that about 60 of the Democrats who voted for health care are either in vulnerable or potentially vulnerable districts, including 18 who represent districts that went for McCain. Another 10 are in districts where Obama got less than 55% and so did the member; six are from districts where Obama got more than 55%, but the member got less than 55%; 14 are in districts which Obama won by less than 55%, but the member won by more than 55%; and at least another 12 are in districts where both they and Obama got more than 55%, but either have been competitive in the past or could be competitive.

Here's the ful list. (If we've missed any, or there are any you think should be added -- or taken away -- let us know):

McCain-won districts (18):
Berry (AR-1): McCain 59-38 (Berry unopposed)
Carney (PA-10): McCain 54-45 (Carney 56-44)
Dahlkemper (PA-3): McCain 49-49 (Dahlkemper 51-49)
Ellsworth (IN-8): McCain 51-48 (Ellsworth 65-35)
Giffords (AZ-8): McCain 52-46 (Giffords 55-43)
Hill (IN-9): McCain 50-48 (Hill 58-38)
Kirkpatrick (AZ-1): McCain 54-44 (Kirkpatrick 56-39 freshman)
Snyder (AR-2): McCain 54-45 (Snyder 77 no cand)
Mitchell (AZ-5): McCain 52-47 (Mitchell 53-45)
Salazar (CO-3): McCain 50-48 (Salazar 62-38)
Pomeroy (ND-AL): McCain 53-45 (Pomeroy 62-38)
Wilson (OH-6): McCain 50-48 (Wilson 62-33)
Space (OH-18): McCain 53-45 (Space 60-40)
Murtha (PA-12): McCain 49-49 (Murtha 58-42)
Spratt (SC-5): McCain 53-46 (Spratt 62-37)
Mollohan (WV-1): McCain 57-42 (Mollohan 99 unopposed)
Rahall (WV-3): McCain 56-42 (Rahall 67-33)
Perriello (VA-5): McCain 51-48 (Perriello 50-49.9)

Obama-won districts -55%/Rep -55 08 (10):
Arcuri (NY-24): Obama 50-48 (08: Arcuri 52-28)
Driehaus (OH-1): Obama 55-44 (Driehaus 52-47 freshman)
Grayson (FL-8): Obama 52-47 (Grayson 52-48)
Kagen (WI-8): Obama 53-45 (Kagen 54-46)
Kilroy (OH-15): Obama 54-45 (Kilroy 46-45)
Klein (FL-20): Obama 52-48 (Klein 55-45)
Moore (KS-3): Obama 51-48 (Moore 56-40)
Schauer (MI-7): Obama 52-46 (Schauer 49-47 freshman)
Shea-Porter (NH-1): Obama 53-46 (Shea-Porter 52-46)
Titus (NV-1): Obama 55-43 (Titus 47-42)

Obama won -55, Rep +55 (14):
Bishop (GA-2): Obama 54-45 (Bishop 69-31)
Bishop (NY-1): Obama 51-48 (Bishop 58-42)
Boswell (IA-3): Obama 53-45 (Boswell 56-42)
DeFazio: Obama 54-43 (DeFazio unopposed 82)
Delahunt (MA-10): Obama 55-43 (Delahunt 99 unopposed)
Donnelly (IN-2): Obama 54-45 (Donnelly 67-30, fmr Chocola/Club for Growth)
Etheridge (NC-2): Obama 52-48 (Etheridge 67-31)
Foster (IL-4): Obama 55-44 (Foster 58-42)
Hall (NY-19): Obama 51-48 (Hall 59-41)
Halvorson (IL-11): Obama 53-45 (Halvorson 58-34)
Higgins (NY-27) Obama 54-44 (Higgins 74-23)
McNerney (CA-11): Obama 54-44 (McNerney 55-45)
Stupak (MI-1): Obama 50-48 (Stupak 65-33)
Walz (MN-1): Obama 51-47 (Walz 63-33)

Obama +55, Rep -55 (6):
Connolly (VA-11): Obama 57-42 (Connolly 55-43)
Himes (CT-4) Obama 60-40 (Himes 51-48 freshman)
Kanjorski (PA-11): Obama 57-42 (Kanjorski 52-48)
Maffei (NY-25): Obama 56-43 (Maffei 55-42)
Peters (MI-5): Obama 56-43 (Peters 52-43 freshman)
Pingree (ME): Obama 61-38 (Pingree 55-45)

Other potentially competitive (12):
Bean (IL-8) Obama 56-43 (08: Bean 60-39, 06: 51-44, 04: 52-48)
Braley (IA-1): Obama 58-41 (Braley 65-35)
Cooper (TN-5): Obama 56-43 (Cooper 66-31)
Costello (IL-12): Obama 56-43 (Costello 71-25)
Cuellar (TX-28): Obama 56-44 (Cuellar 69-29)
Grijalva (AZ-7): Obama 57-42 (Grijalva 63-33)
Hare (IL-17): Obama 56-42 (Hare 100% unopposed)
Heinrich (NM-1): Obama 60-39 (Heinrich 56-44 freshman)
Hodes (NH-2): Obama 56-43 (Hodes 56-41 running for gov)
Luján (NM-3): Obama 61-38 (Lujan 57-30 freshman)
Sestak (PA-7): Obama 56-43 (Sestak 60-40)
Yarmuth (KY-3): Obama 56-43 (Yarmuth 59-41)

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Senate gets the baton: After Saturday night's historic, contentious, and very narrow health-care vote in the House of Representatives, the action now moves to the Senate, where things won't get any easier. On Sunday, President Obama made a rare statement from the White House Rose Garden. "Now it falls on the United States Senate to take the baton and bring this effort to the finish line on behalf of the American people," he said. Unfortunately for Obama and the Democrats, the Senate will never be mistaken for Usain Bolt. Why? While House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could afford losing 39 Democratic votes on Saturday, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid can't lose a single one to bring it to the floor. What's more, conservative Senate Dems -- not to mention Joe Lieberman (I-D) -- have major objections to the "opt out" public option in Reid's bill. "If the public option plan is in there, as a matter of conscience, I will not allow this bill to come to a final vote," Lieberman said yesterday on FOX.

Video: Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., President of the American Medical Association Dr. James Rohack and the Washington Post's Jonathan Capehart debate whether the House health reform bill will pass in the Senate.

*** Give Pelosi her due: Speaker Pelosi deserves her due on Saturday's vote. She had said she'd get this out of the House as soon as she had the votes. By going when she did, with another Dem in her pocket (the new seat in NY-23) and keeping the House in session over the weekend, she got it done. And she even quelled a potential uprising among the most pro-choice members of her caucus. It was an impressive performance; she had her share of backseat drivers in all parts of official Washington, and she pulled it off. By the way, the NEXT health care vote in the House should be easier to get, given that what comes out of conference (the "opt out" or the trigger) will likely be a tad easier for moderates to support. That said, the abortion issue could still end up a problem at some point in this process. But the way she navigated the bill over the weekend should re-shape the C.W. on her a tad. As the L.A. Times notes, she's a lot more pragmatic than her opponents want to paint her. And now you know why she was able to become leader of her caucus and why she's Speaker until either the voters decide -- or she decide she doesn't want the job anymore.

*** Republicans aren't the only ones eating their own: As mentioned, 39 House Democrats -- most of them from conservative-leaning congressional districts -- voted against the bill, while just one Republican -- Cao of Louisiana -- voted for it. Well, liberal MoveOn has announced it will launch a $500,000 ad blitz, which will start in the middle of the week, targeting Dems who voted against it, such as Mike Ross (AR), Jason Altmire (PA), Glenn Nye (VA), Rick Boucher (VA), Larry Kissell (NC), and Health Shuler (NC). Meanwhile, MoveOn says it will hold "thank you" events on Thursday and Friday for some 60 Dems who voted yes, and AFSCME and liberal Health Care for America Now (HCAN) are also running TV ads thanking many of these folks. 

*** Drawing more battle lines: Indeed, this "thank you" list is a good place to start our 2010 focus to see how the Obama agenda is playing -- not in the 39 districts of the Democrats who voted no. A First Read analysis of the Saturday's vote finds that about 60 of the Democrats who voted for health care are either in vulnerable or potentially vulnerable districts, including 18 who represent districts that went for McCain. Another 10 are in districts where Obama got less than 55%; six are from districts where Obama got more than 55%, but the member got less than 55%; 14 are in districts which Obama won by less than 55%, but they won by more than 55%; and at least another 12 are in districts where both they and Obama got more than 55%, but either have been competitive in the past or could be competitive. We'll release the full list later today.

*** Backlash against Muslims? The trickiest issue for the military and the president to deal with this week regarding the Ft. Hood shootings may be the growing concern over backlash against Muslim Americans. The more we learn about the shooter, the more the military is concerned about this backlash issue. With every detail about his religion that becomes public, it's likely that much harder for other practicing Muslims in the military to walk around their bases. Army Gen. George Casey warned on "Meet the Press" that this kind of scrutiny could hurt the military's diversity. "Our diversity -- not only in our Army but in our country -- is a strength. And as horrific as this tragedy was, if our diversity becomes a tragedy, I think that's worse."  And if this incident gets classified as a terrorist attack on U.S. soil, something Lieberman raised over the weekend, then the backlash could get even worse.

*** Barack and Bibi: The biggest event on President Obama's schedule today is a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at 7:00 pm ET. The Israelis usually love to get their American presidential photo-ops, but Netanyahu won't get one unless the White House releases an official photograph. Why? There is no pool spray or media moment between the two at all. Part of the reason is that the White House only agreed to meet Netanyahu in the last 48 hours, despite Netanyahu's pleas for a meeting for weeks. The Israeli leader is in U.S. for a speech here in DC. The fact this meeting was so difficult to put together only underscores the perception that the two men just don't see eye-to-eye when it comes to their world views; the two are distant, there's no other way to describe their relationship. The Middle East peace process appears stalled (that should be a topic tonight), and then the news that Iran is reneging on its deal over nukes will also be something that dominates.

*** Time to walk away? On Sunday, the New York Times' Tom Friedman issued some advice for Obama when it comes to the Middle East: walk away from the negotiating table until Israel and the Palestinian Authority realize they really want peace. "Right now we want it more than the parties. They all have other priorities today. And by constantly injecting ourselves we've become their Novocain. We relieve all the political pain from the Arab and Israeli decision-makers by creating the impression in the minds of their publics that something serious is happening… Indeed, it's time for us to dust off James Baker's line: 'When you're serious, give us a call: 202-456-1414. Ask for Barack. Otherwise, stay out of our lives. We have our own country to fix.'"

*** 2012 watch: By the way, look who was in Iowa this weekend: Tim Pawlenty and Mike Huckabee. "Pawlenty's speech at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines [was] the first high- profile event of the early audition season in the state that holds the nation's first presidential caucus," Bloomberg News writes. And check out this quote from T-Paw: "Minnesota and Iowa have a lot in common. We're a state that if you drive across the Minnesota border into northern Iowa, you can't tell that you're in a different state in a lot of ways." This is Pawlenty's launching pad, pure and simple. Even if the other major candidates attempt to downplay the Hawkeye State, Pawlenty won't (and can't) in 2012. And here was Huckabee, courtesy of the Des Moines Register: "2008 Iowa Republican caucuses winner Mike Huckabee spent his Sunday in Davenport, Cedar Rapids and West Des Moines, signing copies of his new book, 'A Simple Christmas: Twelve Stories That Celebrate the True Holiday Spirit.' But many of the 300 people who turned out for his book-signing in West Des Moines weren't focused on a holiday that's seven weeks away. Their minds were on 2012." 

*** Remembering the day the wall came tumbling down: Finally, today is the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. Don't miss Tom Brokaw's reporting on the anniversary on "Meet" yesterday.

Countdown to MA Special Primary: 29 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 71 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 358 days

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The House passed its version of health reform legislation, 220-215, on Saturday night at about 11:30 pm ET, after about 13 hours of debate.

"Don't look for the Senate to quickly follow the House on health care overhaul," the AP says. "A government health insurance plan included in the House bill is unacceptable to a few Democratic moderates who hold the balance of power in the Senate. They're locked in a battle with liberals, with the fate of President Barack Obama's signature issue at stake."

Video: A panel discusses on "Meet the Press" whether the House passage of the health care bill gives the Senate momentum to pass its helath care legislation.

The AP also looks at the differences between the House and Senate bills.

"The [House] bill nearly failed when a deal with conservative Dems collapsed and Pelosi was forced to let them bring up an amendment to restrict abortion coverage," the New York Daily News writes. "The move enraged liberals, but most agreed to stay onboard and Obama traveled to the House Saturday to seal the deal with a personal plea."

The New York Times: "Five states go further than the [abortion] amendment to the health care overhaul. The five — Idaho, Kentucky, Missouri, North Dakota and Oklahoma — already bar private insurance plans from covering elective abortions. The federal employees' health insurance plan and most state Medicaid programs also ban coverage of abortion, complying with a three-decade old ban on federal abortion financing. Seventeen state Medicaid programs, however, do cover the procedure, by using only state money."

The Los Angeles Times notes how pragmatic Pelosi had to be to pass the health bill. "Pelosi is a San Francisco liberal who launched a series of fruitless efforts to cut off funding for the Iraq war after becoming speaker nearly three years ago. But long before making her home on the Left Coast, Pelosi was the attentive daughter of an old-school East Coast politician who made whatever deals it took to win. That upbringing proved crucial in the healthcare marathon. In the fight to get the legislation through the House, Pelosi's impulse to tilt at windmills disappeared and her pragmatic heritage came to the fore. That's what enabled Pelosi to build a majority, one compromise at a time, including the pivotal deal with antiabortion Democrats."

The New York Times profiles Rep. Cao of Louisiana, who was the lone Republican to vote for the health-care legislation. "Mr. Cao, a freshman Republican from New Orleans and a Vietnamese-American representing a predominantly black district, was elected last year in an upset victory over Representative William J. Jefferson, a Democrat who was under indictment at the time and has since been convicted of federal corruption charges. 'I have a constitutional duty to make the right decision for my district whether or not the decision was popular,' Mr. Cao said in an interview Sunday on CNN."

The Boston Globe looks at Joe Lieberman's role in the debate: "Lieberman's mercurial ideology has amused, confounded, and frustrated Democrats for years. As the health care spotlight now moves from the US House to the Senate, the shape-shifting independent Connecticut senator and former vice presidential candidate is again aggravating his former party. His vow to support a Republican filibuster of health care legislation if it contains a public health insurance option makes him a pivotal player and, he says, a spokesman for a silent minority-within-the-majority."

The New York Times front-pages, "The White House, growing concerned that the Congressional timetable for passing a health care overhaul could slip into next year, is stepping up pressure on the Senate for quick action, with President Obama appearing Sunday in the Rose Garden to call on senators to 'take up the baton and bring this effort to the finish line.' Mr. Obama's remarks came just 14 hours after the House narrowly approved a landmark plan that would cost $1.1 trillion over 10 years and extend insurance coverage to 36 million uninsured Americans; the president called it "a courageous vote." But the votes had barely been counted when the White House began turning its attention to an even bigger hurdle: getting legislation passed in the Senate."

Video: After the health care bill passed the House, President Obama says it's now time for the Senate to "take up the baton" of health care reform.

The Washington Post: "A year after his election, the health-care vote in the House was a reminder of the power that he still wields to shape the country's future, cajoling change that he promised as a candidate over the objections of a nearly unified GOP and a sharply divided party of his own. But the victory came on the heels of sobering evidence that even a president as popular as he remains is subject to the shifting public mood, an economy struggling to recover and events that are beyond his direct control."

Obama will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today. Netanyahu is in DC speaking to Jewish groups.

The L.A. Times previews Obama's upcoming trip to Asia. "With unemployment topping 10% and his healthcare plan still facing Senate action, President Obama has plenty to keep him busy at home. But on Thursday, he will head to Asia for more than a week, a trip that underscores the White House's conviction that a close partnership with China and other Pacific Rim nations is crucial to American interests. Obama is scheduled to stop in Japan, Singapore, China and South Korea, bringing to 20 the number of nations he has visited since taking office in January. That's a record, according to the Obama administration; no other president has traveled to so many countries in his first year in office."

Senior Director for East Asian affairs, Jeffery Bader, also previewed the president's trip on Friday. Speaking at the Brookings' Institution, Bader said Obama's personal popularity abroad will help advance the U.S.'s agenda in the region. "My view is when someone is admired, popular and seen positively, his message is more likely to resonate," Bader said, adding, "Rather than when you come in with a 5% approval rating." On trade, former ambassador Stapleton Roy, who also spoke at the event, said that getting China to reform its trade policies -- like loosening trade restrictions and moving toward a market-based currency -- will be a challenge for the U.S. while it recovers from the global recession. "The reputation of the U.S. for having the most profitable and secure financial services is tarnished," he said. "China will not be lectured to."

Lynn Sweet profiles the assistant White House chef, Sam Kass. "It's not so much his cooking -- when we talked, Kass did not name a signature dish or style, instead emphasizing his overall food philosophy -- but his work on the White House kitchen garden and nutrition programs, signature projects of first lady Michelle Obama, that has vaulted him from the food section to the news pages."

The Washington Post has launched a new series looking at GOP's political condition -- "The Elephant in the Room: Examining the State of the Republican Party." Dan Balz opened the series yesterday. "One year after hitting bottom in the aftermath of President Obama's election, Republicans have taken their first concrete steps toward recovery. But they remain an embattled and divided force, facing an electorate still skeptical about their capacity to govern and embroiled in a struggle between party regulars and populist conservative forces over how to return to power."

Pawlenty was in Iowa over the weekend. "Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty criticized health care legislation in Congress as he appeared in what may be an early audition for a 2012 presidential bid," Bloomberg writes. "'We've got Congress -- Democratic-controlled Congress -- messing around with a miserable health care bill,' he said. 'They should be focused like a laser on jobs, not acting like a manure-spreader in a wind storm.' Pawlenty's speech at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines is the first high-profile event of the early try out season in the state that holds the nation's first presidential caucuses. 'They can't even get us, in a reasonable time, a vaccine for the H1N1 virus,' said Pawlenty, 48. 'How are they going to manage our health care?'"

So was Mike Huckabee. "2008 Iowa Republican caucuses winner Mike Huckabee spent his Sunday in Davenport, Cedar Rapids and West Des Moines, signing copies of his new book, 'A Simple Christmas: Twelve Stories That Celebrate the True Holiday Spirit.' But many of the 300 people who turned out for his book-signing in West Des Moines weren't focused on a holiday that's seven weeks away. Their minds were on 2012."

As for Sarah Palin, she was firing up some Facebook "Notes" over the weekend, crediting Ronald Reagan in part for the fall of the Berlin Wall; blasting House Democrats for the health care vote; and telling the press again to "quit making things up" because of an event in Wisconsin in which cameras weren't allowed.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The House health care bill passed 220-215 in a late-night vote
yesterday. Remember that Democrats won two special elections on
Election Day on Tuesday. And this bill passed by two votes.
Coincidence?

It was about a 13-hour day in the House, but throughout the day,
Democrats sounded confident. The president stopped by to meet with the
Democratic caucus in the morning, but Majority Whip Jim Clyburn
acknowledged that Obama didn't affect the vote. Obama likely wouldn't
have been there if the votes weren't there -- and the bill wouldn't
have come up for a vote.

So what happened from Friday, when Democrats seemed just short, and Saturday night? Democrats, led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi behind
closed doors, solved the abortion issue with pro-life Catholic
Democrats. As many as 20 to 30 votes hinged on the abortion language.
Pelosi got the endorsement of the Catholic Bishops, and she allowed --
and said she suggested -- that an amendment explicitly banning federal
funding in the House bill, would be voted on. The amendment was
introduced and pushed by Democrat Bart Stupak from Michigan.
The amendment passed 240-196, and the Democrats kept the more liberal
members, who threatened to vote against, in line.

For the overall bill, almost every Republican and 39 Democrats voted against it. They were mostly from swing districts in red states. The only "liberal" to vote against -- Dennis Kucinich, who was upset that am amendment that would give states the right to opt for a single-payer system, was not allowed to come up for a vote.

Democrats also got the vote of one Republican -- Ahn "Joseph" Cao -- widely seen as the most vulnerable member of the House. He's from the more liberal Louisiana district last represented by William "Money in the Freezer" Jefferson.

Here are the "no" votes:
1. Rep. John Adler (NJ)
2. Rep. Jason Altmire (PA)
3. Rep. Brian Baird (WA)
4. Rep. John Barrow (GA)
5. Rep. John Boccieri (OH)
6. Rep. Dan Boren (OK)
7. Rep. Rick Boucher (VA)
8. Rep. Allen Boyd (FL)
9. Rep. Bobby Bright (AL)
10. Rep. Ben Chandler (KT)
11. Rep. Travis Childers (MS)
12. Rep. Artur Davis (AL)
13. Rep. Lincoln Davis (TN)
14. Rep. Chet Edwards (TX)
15. Rep. Bart Gordon (TN)
16. Rep. Parker Griffith (AL)
17. Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD)
18. Rep. Tim Holden (PA)
19. Rep. Larry Kissell (NC)
20. Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (FL)
21. Rep. Frank Kratovil (MD)
22. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH)
23. Rep. Jim Marshall (GA)
24. Rep. Betsy Markey (CO)
25. Rep. Eric Massa (NY)
26. Rep. Jim Matheson(UT)
27. Rep. Mike McIntyre (NC)
28. Rep. Michael McMahon  (NY)
29. Rep. Charlie Melancon (LA)
30. Rep. Walt Minnick (ID)
31. Rep. Scott Murphy (NY)
32. Rep. Glenn Nye (VA)
33. Rep. Collin Peterson (MN)
34. Rep. Mike Ross (AR)
35. Rep. Heath Shuler (NC)
36. Rep. Ike Skelton (MO)
37. Rep. John Tanner (TN)
38. Rep. Gene Taylor (MS)
39. Rep. Harry Teague (NM)

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro, Mike Viqueira, and Luke Russert
House Democrats "intend" to bring the health-reform bill to a vote tomorrow on the House floor. But as many as 20 to 30 votes could hinge on abortion.

Fix abortion, the bill passes, one Democrat said. Don't fix it, it doesn't.

Many of these members are waiting for a yay or nay from the Conference of Catholic Bishops on the abortion language.

Moderates Bart Stupak (D-MI) and Brad Ellsworth (D-IN), two of the central figures in this abortion fight, are currently in the Speaker's office.

Another member said there is a real push among Catholic members who support the bill to get other other, more skeptical, pro-life Catholic Democrats on board.

Also, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel is making calls on this. President Obama is supposed to head to the Hill tomorrow to try and wrangle votes.

BUT sources indicate the president's appearance tomorrow is still up in the air, depending on the prospects for success tomorrow. (Perhaps the White House doesn't want the perception of a repeat of Copenhagen to get the Olympics for Chicago.)

THE WEEK AHEAD: Health vote nears ... Obama heads to Asia ... Plouffe book out ... Pawlenty to Mexico ... Spitzer talks ethics? ... Meet the Press has Barbour/Rendell

From NBC's Ali Weinberg and Wendy Jones
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton today addressed the first public policy forum of NoLimits.org, an education foundation focusing on issues like work-family policies, healthcare reform and human rights. The nonpartisan group was founded by Ann Lewis, whose brother is House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank.

Clinton said she recognized many friends in the audience, including her best friend from sixth grade, as well as many whom she met "in the cauldron of the 2008 election." She called Lewis Rep. Frank's "long-suffering sister," joking about Lewis's reaction to Frank's speech earlier at the forum: "He did great but his shirt was untucked!" 

Although the speech was devoted mostly to Clinton's experience thus far as Secretary of State, she did comment on some of the day's news, expressing optimism about the House passing its health care bill tomorrow. 

"For the first time in American history the House is poised to pass comprehensive health care reform," Clinton said. Alluding to her own struggles in passing health care legislation during President Bill Clinton's administration, Clinton added, "As someone who has fought this battle for so many years, I cannot tell you how proud I am."
 
She also remarked on the shootings at Fort Hood yesterday, which wounded 30 and left 13 dead. "Our thoughts and prayers are with the soldiers at Ft. Hood," she said. These terrible incidents remind us of the sacrifices of our men and women..it's horrifying when they come under fire..and [worse] when things like this happen to those wearing the uniform."
 
Addressing the mostly female audience, Clinton spoke of a recent trip to Congo, where she visited a hospital for rape victims. "It rips your heart," she said, noting that raping young women has become "a tactic of war" there. She stressed the importance of spreading awareness in America about humanitarian crises abroad, telling the audience that her job as Secretary of State is to "explain to the laid-off auto worker why it is important to help people abroad....to educate their children."
 
She also spoke about her trip to Berlin tomorrow to help commemorate the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, a symbol of the 30-year Cold War's end. "We find ourselves now in a much more complex world, she said, with conflicts far different than "when it was us versus them." 

From NBC's Doug Adams
With word that the healthcare reform vote may slip in the House, it's clear that Democrats are still scrambling to get to enough of their members on board. With the assumption that no Republicans will support the bill, Democrats (who now number 258) need to keep their defections to under 40 in order to get to a bare majority of 218 votes.

There are a couple of different factions. Many of the moderate Blue Dog Democrats think the overall bill is too expensive and chances are a big handful of them will vote against the bill. Then, there are some Democrats in marginal districts who are worried about their re-election race -- in some cases the leadership could give them a pass to oppose.

And two policy sticking points have emerged -- abortion and immigration.

Here's a short primer on those two bugaboos:

ABORTION: A group of pro-life Democrats are concerned the bill does not go far enough to ensure that taxpayer money will not be used to pay for abortions. There are at least two dozen pro-life Democrats in the House and while not all of them are threatening to vote against the bill, there are enough that it's become a problem for the House leadership.

Mike Doyle (D-PA) and Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) are trying to work out a compromise. Ellsworth's amendment would strengthen the language and, among other changes, would specifically ban the "public option" from covering abortion. But some pro-lifers want to go farther, and they favor even tougher language in an amendent by Bart Stupak (D-MI) who wants to block coverage of abortion services from both the public option AND private insurance plans that get federal subsidies. The Stupak language, say abortion rights supporters, is so strong it could mean health insurance providers that cover abortion won't even be able to participate in the public exchange (where tens of millions of customers would shop for insurance).

The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops is lobbying hard on this issue, and many members won't back anything the Bishops oppose. And the USCCB does not support the Ellsworth compromise.

IMMIGRATION: With opponents of health reform whipping up the spectre of illegal immigrants getting free health care, some moderates are pushing to bolster immigration restrictions. But that's a big problem for some Hispanic members who think the language is already strong enough.

The House bill already bars illegal immigrants from enrolling in the public option, and from recieving subsidies for health plans. But the Senate bill goes further, also barring illegal immigrants from shopping in the "public exchange." THAT restriction goes too far for many in the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, and they want to make sure the House bill isn't changed to match the Senate languague.

Rep. Xavier Becerra, the only Hispanic member of the House Democratic leadership, is trying to work out a compromise. The Hispanic Caucus has 27 members, a big block of votes that Democrats can't afford to lose.

On the other side of the issue are a signficant number of moderates, mostly from conservatifve districts, who say they need reassurances about illegal immigrant restrictions.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Democratic House leadership contends there will, in fact, be a vote tomorrow on health-reform legislation -- despite reports suggesting a vote could be pushed back to Sunday or even next week.

An aide told First Read that "assuming all goes well," they are aiming for a vote late afternoon/early evening tomorrow. The aide, however, conceded the vote could slip later into tomorrow evening.

"We still expect to vote on health care tomorrow," the aide said.

The only thing that could push it off -- aside from not having the votes, and Dems don't have those yet -- are procedural delays by Republicans.

But Republican leadership says that's not part of the plan.

A GOP aide said they are happy to watch Democrats "flopping around like landed haddock." (For those wondering, haddock is a deep water cod.)

"Any member has the right to make a motion to adjourn and walk off the floor," the aide said. But "in terms of strategy, no. We're not going to let Steny's waggin' finger blame us for this."

The reference to Steny, is Steny Hoyer, the Democratic majority leader. Republicans also said they are hearing Hoyer is OK with the vote being pushed back to Sunday or next week if they don't have the votes tomorrow.

Not so, Hoyer's office says. But as far as getting to 218, a Democratic aide said, "All indications we've gotten is that we're getting there."

Translation: They don't have the votes yet.

The Rules Committee began meeting at 2:00 pm ET today to figure out what the structure for tomorrow will be.

At 9:00 am ET tomorrow, members will vote on the rules, then debate the Democratic bill, and then debate the Republican alternative. Word is, the GOP bill could get just an hour, and then Democrats will move on.

Another possible complication: the American Medical Association's Interim Meeting of the AMA House of Delegates will take place in Houston, beginning tomorrow and continuing through Tuesday. Republicans are hoping state AMA groups will pressure the national organization to rescind its endorsement. Republicans think that is a real possibility.

"The national leadership is out of touch" with doctors across the country, the GOP aide said.

So why is Congress coming in on Saturday to debate the measure anyway? Why not just do it on Monday?

Well, there's the complication that going home and hearing complaints from some of the loudest constituents could spook members, particularly those who are undecided about how they'll vote. Complicating matter even further is that Veterans Day is Wednesday. And members traditionally go home that day for parades in their districts.

So, if uncertainty were to creep in over a weekend at home. And then members have to be wrangled again on Monday and Tuesday, that could slow the vote down to the end of the week or possibly even the following week.

Hence, why Democrats are trying to push this through as quickly as they can.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell, Luke Russert and Domenico Montanaro
The House is coming on tomorrow for what was supposed to be a rare Saturday vote on health care.

But signs are pointing to a delay to Sunday or possibly next week due, in part, to unresolved issues over abortion and illegal immigration -- as well as the possibility for Republicans to use delay tactics.

Nancy Pelosi, in remarks today, hinted at a delay with this comment: "Within the next few days, the House will vote on the most comprehensive health care legislation in our history."

"Within the next few days...."

Aides to Speaker Pelosi insist they are ready for Saturday action saying, "Our plan is to go tomorrow, which has been clear."

Debate is expected to begin tomorrow at 9am. And senior Democratic aides say they have told members to stay in the D.C. area (not return to districts) until there is a healthcare vote and to be prepared to stay until Veteran's Day if necessary. 

They acknowledge Democrats do not have the needed votes today, saying, "There is enough opposition" for the measure to fail. Aides say they continue to discuss specific language and issues for uncommitted Democrats.

"We have to make sure all our bases are covered, so we can take up and pass this bill," a leadership aide said.

They do not plan to go to a vote without assurances from members and do not predict getting more than the required 218 votes.

"We need members to reach a comfort level" with the specifics according to aides. House Leadership has established a "hot line" for members to get expert answers to questions from constituents and to better understand various nuances of the bill and potential impact to their own districts. 

Democrats expect to get a kind of White House endorsement for the House bill today in what's known as a SAP, "Statement of Administration Policy," which would track the healthcare reform package.

Republicans, none of whom are likely to vote for a health reform bill, are already seizing on the possibility of a delay.

"If the Democratic Leader of the House is moving the goalposts, it's because Democrats can see the writing on the wall," said Ken Spain, the National Republican Campaign Committee's communications director. "A vote for yet another job-killing expansion of government in the wake of newly-released skyrocketing unemployment numbers would just be further proof of how politically tone-deaf the Democratic majority has become."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The race to 218 -- or more: Tomorrow night, the House is expected to vote on the Democrats' health care bill. And from now until then, Speaker Nancy Pelosi's goal -- as well as President Obama's -- will be this: getting at least 218 votes. The next 48 hours are going to be wild, but considering the country's focus on the tragedy to Ft. Hood, the battle will take place mostly behind the scenes and out of the media spotlight. President Obama heads to Capitol Hill tomorrow to convince on-the-fence lawmakers. Democrats currently have 258 members, and since we're expecting zero GOP votes, that means Democrats can lose 40 members. Yet there are Dems concerned about the public option, abortion, and immigration (Congressional Hispanic Caucus members say they will vote against the measure if it prohibits illegal immigrants from being able to purchase insurance in the exchange). While we expect the House to pass the bill, it's important to note that Pelosi has pointedly NOT said she has the votes. Why? Because she doesn't have the votes yet. Everything we hear is that Dems have about a little more than 200 votes. Also, the goal isn't really 218 -- but rather 225, so that there isn't one vote that decides this. You can just picture the TV ads if the bill passes by one vote, right?

*** How Saturday will go: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer explained yesterday on the House floor how Saturday will go, according to NBC's Luke Russert. "My expectation is that on Saturday we will convene at 9:00 am in the morning. After one-minutes, we will then go to the rule on the health-care bill, and it is my expectation that we will have consideration of the healthcare bill and the Republican substitute. If we proceed a pace and come to vote and disposition on that piece of legislation, we would then adjourn at whatever hour we complete our work and the adjournment would be till the 16th of November." Hoyer later added, "Again I want to clarify and make sure everybody understands it is our intent to finish the healthcare bill, sometime Saturday night or early Sunday morning, it would be my expectation that there would be no further business till the 16th."

*** Passing the 10% mark: Well, the White House knew it was coming, and now it's here: The unemployment rate has topped 10% -- the first time since 1983. Per the AP, "The Labor Department says the economy shed a net total of 190,000 jobs in October, less than the downwardly revised 219,000 lost in September." But the unemployment rate increased, from 9.8% in Sept. to 10.2% in Oct. It only took about five minutes for Republicans to pounce on the numbers.

*** Brooks vs. Krugman: Interestingly (but not necessarily surprisingly), David Brooks and Paul Krugman offer the White House contradictory advice. Brooks says that Obama needs to play to the middle. "[T]hese voters are not turning to government for support. Trust in government is at its lowest level in recent memory. Over the past year, there has been a shift to the right on issue after issue. According to Gallup, the percentage of Americans who believe that there is too much government regulation rose from 38 percent in 2008 to 45 percent in 2009. The percentage of Americans who want unions to have less influence rose from 32 percent to a record 42 percent." On the other hand, Krugman argues the White House hasn't been aggressive enough. "President Obama came into office with a strong mandate and proclaimed the need to take bold action on the economy. His actual actions, however, were cautious rather than bold. They were enough to pull the economy back from the brink, but not enough to bring unemployment down." 

*** Stepping on the NY-23 narrative: Turning to Tuesday's elections, Republicans have had two very good stories to talk about (New Jersey and Virginia) and one they really don't want to discuss (NY-23). So what did some of their leaders do yesterday? They stepped right on the NY-23 narrative. First was the thousands-strong Tea Party rally/protest/press conference on Capitol Hill -- attended by GOP congressional leaders -- which only furthered the perception (true or not) that the GOP has become captive to its conservative base. Next came RNC Chairman Michael Steele's apparent warning shot to moderate Republicans who supported the stimulus or health care. "We'll come after you," he relayed to ABC. (An RNC spokeswoman told First Read that Steele was referring only to House members, and not a single House Republican voted for the stimulus, and not a single one is expected to back health reform.)

*** Da Club targets Crist: Further stepping on the NY-23 narrative, the Club for Growth is running its first TV ad targeting Charlie Crist. The spot ties the Florida governor to Obama. By the way, a Crist-vs.-Rubio contest all seems to hinge on whether Rubio is the real deal. Somehow, Crist has to make Rubio seem either unelectable or someone who isn't ready. That's not a good place for Crist to be, because he suddenly doesn't have complete control of his destiny. He may have to win in the worst way and then that could make him vulnerable in a general, though many Republicans are extremely confident that Dem nominee-in-waiting Kendrick Meek is beatable by either Republican. The bar for Rubio as a candidate is lower than Crist's. It's going to be a LONG none months between now and the primary for Charlie Crist. 

*** Others say David Paterson has been an awesome governor: Well, it doesn't look like very vulnerable Gov. David Paterson (D) is going to bow out of his race anytime soon. Yesterday, his campaign released two TV ads that will begin airing statewide today. The first takes aim at some of his critics. "Some say I shouldn't be running for governor," Paterson says to the camera, singling out state legislators, union leaders, and corporations (but he leaves out the Obama White House, which doesn't want him running, either). The other ad is a biographical spot. New York's CBS affiliate also notes that Paterson has hired Harold Ickes for his campaign.

*** Things you might not have known about the VA contest: As it turns out, Creigh Deeds (D) lost the female vote to McDonnell (R), 46%-54%, despite making women's issues a central part of his campaign; in fact, he was the first statewide Democrat to lose the VA female vote since 2000… Deeds also narrowly lost Fairfax County in Northern Virginia, 49%-51%; by comparison, Obama won it last year, 60%-39% and Tim Kaine won it in 2005, 60%-38%... In addition, Deeds underperformed Kaine in Loudon County and Virginia Beach (which, of course, happens when you lose a race by 18 percentage points)… And turnout was about 1.9 million -- which was equal to the '05 gubernatorial race, but down from 2006 (2.4 million) and 2008 (3.7 million).

*** Things you might not have known about the NJ contest: Sorry, Bruce, this one's gotta hurt: If one of us were still working for Asbury Park Press, the daily paper of the Jersey Shore, and home to Springsteen, our headline might be something like this -- "Shore propels Christie to victory." That's because Monmouth and Ocean counties, the two counties that make up the Press' readership, were Christie's top two vote-getting counties and saw the biggest increases in total vote for the Republican from '05 to '09 (+27,000 in Monmouth and +30,000 in Ocean). And the combined vote margin that Christie won by in the two counties over Corzine -- 134,367 -- accounted "for more than his margin of victory," as the Press wrote yesterday… Corzine also got fewer votes in EVERY single county in the state than he did in '05, and Christie got MORE votes out of every county than Doug Forrester '05… Basically, when you look at the entire state, Corzine got destroyed in the suburbs, and although he held margins in traditionally Democratic Counties around New York City and Philadelphia, he got fewer votes out of them. Even though overall turnout was about the same as 2005, it was down in Democratic ones and up in Republican ones.   

Countdown to MA Special Primary: 32 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 74 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 361 days

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The Washington Post looks at Nancy Pelosi's race to get 218 votes. "Although confident of victory, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) and other Democratic leaders were working to limit defections to the roughly 25 Democrats viewed as "hard no" votes. There will be 258 Democrats in the House by the time the vote takes place, but to secure the 218 votes needed for passage -- and with prospects dim for Republican converts -- Pelosi can afford to lose no more than 40 members of her caucus."

More: "For party leaders, setting a weekend deadline for passage represented a calculated risk, one that could backfire if the vote -- now expected late Saturday or Sunday -- fails or must be delayed. But they feared that if members were given more time to consider the legislation, new issues could arise, particularly as lawmakers digest the results from Tuesday's elections. Most ominous for Democrats were their losses in gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia, although the party did prevail in House special elections in New York and California." 

The New York Times: "Readying for the first floor test of legislation months in the making, top Democrats appealed to undecided lawmakers while trying to quell resistance from Hispanic House members worried the measure was too punitive regarding illegal immigrants and anti-abortion lawmakers who fear that public money could be funneled toward abortions." 

The illegal immigration issue is emerging as the biggest threat to passing healthcare reform in the House, The Hill adds. "Congressional Hispanics have threatened to vote against the bill because of a last-minute threat from within the Democratic Caucus to bolster the House bills immigration restrictions to match those included in the Senate Finance bill. CHC members met with the president at the White House and insisted he drop his opposition to illegal immigrants being able to buy insurance in the exchange."

"In a step that reflected deep partisan divisions in the Senate over the issue of global warming, Democrats on the Environment and Public Works Committee pushed through a climate bill on Thursday without any debate or participation by Republicans," the New York Times says. "The measure passed by an 11-to-1 vote with the support of all the Democratic committee members except Senator Max Baucus of Montana. The seven Republicans boycotted the committee meetings this week, saying they had not had sufficient time to study the bill... The move suggests that President Obama and Democratic supporters of the bill will have serious problems assembling the votes needed to enact it when it comes to the Senate floor, probably not before next year." 

Former President George W. Bush will deliver a keynote address at SMU on Nov. 12 outlining his vision for his policy institute, which will be part of the George W. Bush Presidential Center, his office said yesterday. 

Dana Milbank on yesterday's Tea Party protestors: "Many of the demonstrators chanted 'Weasel Queen,' their pet name for the speaker of the House. Others wore masks of Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.); they were covered in fake blood and carrying dolls representing aborted fetuses, as the Grim Reaper led them in chains to hell. In the front of the protest, a sign showed President Obama in white coat, his face painted to look like the Joker. The sign, visible to the lawmakers as they looked into the cameras, carried a plea to 'Stop Obamunism.' A few steps farther was the guy holding a sign announcing 'Obama takes his orders from the Rothchilds' [sic], accusing Obama of being part of a Jewish plot to introduce the antichrist."

Salon's Mike Madden writes that a small mob of protestors had gathered in the Cannon Office Building "for what anti-choice kook Randall Terry billed as a sit-in to protest abortion-related provisions in the House healthcare reform legislation. They wound up mixing with some of the people who streamed in after Bachmann's 'House Call' rally ended to tell members of Congress how vehemently they oppose providing universal access to healthcare. Someone tore up all 1,990 pages of the reform bill and scattered them on the floor; a few of Terry's pals got arrested; the crowd started chanting, 'Kill the bill! Kill the bill!' and just like that, the police were clearing the hallway. 'This is the people's House, and we're being kicked out?' one woman muttered as she walked away. 'Nancy Pelosi can kiss my fat ass.'"

Mike Huckabee is out front again of another poll measuring GOP 2012 front runners 71% of Republicans say they'd seriously consider voting for Huckabee; 65% said so of Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin; 60% of Newt Gingrich; 32% of Tim Pawlenty; 26% of Haley Barbour.

Sarah Palin will skip New York City on her book tour this month, but here comes the consolation prize: Almost-son-in-law Levi Johnston will be here next week to pocket roughly $100,000 for a nude photo shoot, the New York Daily News writes. "Palin, the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee and former Alaska governor, is skipping the customary book-tour stops - in bigger cities - and spending time in smaller burgs to plug her campaign memoir Going Rogue. Palin kicks off the book tour in Grand Rapids, Mich., on Nov. 18."

MASSACHUSETTS: "Attorney General Martha Coakley, who says she is firmly against capital punishment, has drawn the ire of some death penalty opponents by urging the US Supreme Court to limit federal review of state court decisions, which opponents say could make it harder for defendants on death row to challenge their sentences."

"Governor Deval Patrick swept through Washington yesterday, wrapping up a two-day tour to advance the states interests in health care, economic development, and transportation - a trip that also let him showcase his access to the city's most powerful Democrats, including President Obama." 

NEW YORK: "Seeking to dampen continuing speculation that he will drop his quest for election, Gov. David A. Paterson will run his first television ads on Friday," the New York Times writes. "The two ads, each 30 seconds long, highlight his biography and address criticism Mr. Paterson has faced from labor unions and business interests over his proposed cuts to the state budget. Both directly confront what polls say is Mr. Paterson's central political problem: widespread public skepticism that he has the ability to lead the state effectively."

Peace, out? "President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority, citing dismay over the progress of US-brokered peace initiatives, said yesterday that he does not want to run for reelection when his term ends in January, potentially upending the Obama administrations strategy for the region. But advisers and analysts said it was possible he was merely venting frustration over a dialogue with the United States and Israel that has undercut him politically without any marked progress toward the creation of a Palestinian state. I do not wish to run for the upcoming presidential elections, the 74-year-old leader said. This decision is not for negotiation or maneuver."

In his first interview since being elected, Chris Christie was asked to name the lowest point in the campaign. To which he replied, "One? He then picked the period when the U.S. Attorneys Office, which he led for seven years, became fodder for attack as Democrats questioned whether Christie used his corruption prosecutions to launch a political career. He said he would not be standoffish to his Democratic opponents during his governorship, because, Christie said, it doesn't make any sense. You won. That's the ultimate vindication. But when asked whether he would be drafting an enemies list, Christies response was: Please. I wouldn't have enough paper.

In his column today, Charlie Cook says that Tuesday's elections only confirmed what we already knew. "We already knew that Democrats had big troubles. We knew that for the past five consecutive elections, the party that had won the White House just a year earlier lost the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia—and that the pattern had a good chance of continuing this year. We knew that the young and minority voters who had never cast a ballot before they did for Barack Obama last year were very unlikely to show up at the polls this year or next. And we already knew that the love affair independents had with Democratic candidates in 2006 and 2008 was over. Independents haven't turned against President Obama. They've just stepped back, become more skeptical, and to some extent begun turning on Democrats as a party."

And in his latest National Journal column, Ron Brownstein, notes how young voters, independents, and the suburbs turned away from the Democratic candidates in New Jersey and Virginia. "None of this guarantees Democrats will lose these voters in 2010, but it does suggest they need to mend fences. Economic recovery, of course, would help them everywhere."

From NBC's Michelle Perry
House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-SC) acknowledged that House Dems still need to work out the abortion issue in the healthcare reform bill ahead of Saturday's vote. Clyburn told NBC's Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports," that the House bill is in a good place on substance, but some remain "skittish" about the language that goes into the bill on abortion.

The potential stumbling block is whether or not the House bill would include explicit language restricting the use of federal money to pay for abortions. Moderate Blue Dog Democrats have threatened to oppose the bill if it doesn't.

"Both sides want to make sure that we don't put wording in here that will cause a tilt one way or the other," Clyburn told Mitchell, "and so that's the problem."

While Clyburn said that everyone is agreeable, that they express language in the bill that would not allow for federal funding for abortions, he added they are looking for a way to "wall off" the money. Right now moderate Dems remain concerned that there are still areas where the money is fungible.

That said, Clyburn thinks the issue will be resolved and they will have the votes necessary to pass the bill.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
You just knew this was coming... The Club for Growth, which spent about $1 million in NY-23 to boost Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman -- who eventually lost to the Democrat -- is back at it.

It is pushing for Marco Rubio over Charlie Crist in the Florida GOP primary. And now it created the below video, hitting Crist on his support for the stimulus back in February in an appearance with President Obama. The video is appearing online for now, but a spokesman says it will be going on air with it "soon."

The ad was created as a response to Crist's appearance on CNN, in which he tried to parse his own support for the stimulus.

"I didn't endorse it," Crist said. "I didn't even have a vote on the darned thing. But I understood that it was going to pass and I wanted to be able to utilize it for the benefit of my fellow Floridians."

"Didn't endorse it?" What do you call, as the ad points out, Crist saying the following? "We know that it's important that we pass the stimulus package."

By the way, the club goes all Lieberman-Bush kiss with its final shot in the ad, a slow-motion hug between Crist and Obama. It's the first tactic of its kind. And we're going to see LOTS more of this, particularly with the White House essentially saying bring it on -- make 2010 about Obama.

Get ready.

Stimulus. Health care. They are going to be -- and already are -- key 2010 issues in GOP primaries, in particular. Moderates face the challenge of surviving their stance on them in a primary and then trying to tack to the center in a general -- if the economy gets better. (There won't be a real measure of health reform for a while if it passes, since it won't go into effect for years.)

From NBC's Scott Foster
President Obama took to the bully pulpit today with a surprise stop at the daily White House briefing to tout two influential endorsements of his health care reform plan by the AARP and American Medical Association.
 
He told reporters he was "extraordinarily pleased and grateful" by the endorsements, and urged Congress to "listen" to both groups and pass the House Democrats' heath-insurance reform bill.
 
Interestingly, in what clearly was a strategic maneuver by the White House to regain control of the message, Obama's unannounced appearance before the cameras came just as a few thousand Tea Party activists converged on Capitol Hill to rally against the Democrats' health care reform bill.
 
(Asked about that coincidental timing later in the briefing, spokesman Robert Gibbs said the president was prompted to speak because they were "very important endorsements." Gibbs added, jokingly: "He's a great opening act.")
 
In very brief remarks, in which he took no questions, Obama argued the endorsements of America's doctors and medical professionals should silence critics of his health care overhaul. "I want everybody to remember," he said, "that the next time you hear the same tired arguments to the contrary from the insurance companies and their lobbyists, and remember this endorsement the next time you see a bunch of misleading ads on television."
 
It's important to note the AMA isn't 100% behind the House Democratic bill. The group qualified its support saying it "...is not the perfect bill, and we will continue to advocate for changes, but it goes a long way toward expanding access to high-quality affordable health coverage for all Americans..."
 
With these major endorsements, Obama was optimistic about the prospects of passing the bill, saying: "We are closer to passing the reform than ever before."
 
Pressed in the briefing over a deadline when it could be passed, Gibbs says the president "... believes we can get this done this year."
 
Tomorrow, Obama continues his push for his reform agenda with a trip to Capitol Hill.

From NBC's Mark Murray
In an interview today with ABC, Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele appeared to fire off this warning shot to Republican moderates who supported the economic stimulus (like Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and Maine Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins) or who might support health-care reform (like Snowe):

"We'll come after you."

Crist, of course, is competing in a Senate primary against the conservative Marco Rubio.

Here's the passage:

Asked if he'd be comfortable with Republican candidates in 2010 who supported President Obama's stimulus package, or his push to overhaul health care, Steele said: "Well I'm gonna tell you honestly, that's where the line gets a little bit tricky. And you saw in the House and in the Senate that there are ramifications, because that goes against a core principle. And trust me, you're assuming that people want to have bloated debt, government expenditures and growth into their lives -- they don't. That's a talking point out of the DNC."

"People aren't buying that. So candidates who live in moderate to slightly liberal districts have got to walk a little bit carefully here, because you do not want to put yourself in a position where you're crossing that line on conservative principles, fiscal principles, because we'll come after you."

An RNC spokesman tells First Read that Steele was referring only to House members, and not a single House Republican voted for the stimulus, and not a single one is expected to back health reform. "This is not about moderates," the spokeswoman said. "It is about liberals who support the president's radical, big-government agenda."

Earlier this year, Steele suggested in a FOX interview that the three Senate Republicans who voted for the stimulus -- Snowe, Collins, and Arlen Specter (who later switched parties) -- might face primary challenges and might not receive funds from the RNC.

*** UPDATE *** DNC spokesman Hari Sevugan emails First Read: "With today's threat to 'come after' moderate Republicans or those that would work for bipartisan solutions, it's clear the Michael Steele and the Republican party are ready to hand over the keys of the GOP to Michele Bachmann, Glenn Beck and the rest of the extremist tea party crowd. And in establishing a policy of purging moderates, the Republicans have committed themselves to being an extreme ideological party that will only turn-off independent voters and further marginalize an already isolated party going into 2010 and beyond."