From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
Fresh from a meeting at the Pentagon this morning, Armed Services Committee member and West Point graduate Sen. Jack Reed acknowledged that Ambassador (and Retired General) Eikenberry's warnings are in conflict with Gen. McChrstyal's recommendations. 

In other words, the President's handpicked top military man in the war zone is now being contradicted by the president's top diplomat in the country. The two men, in fact, have disagreed in the past when McChrystal reported to Eikenberry. Clearly, say most experts, this is not a sustainable situation.

In an interview at the Newseum at a conference hosted by Bloomberg News, Reed said the fact that two experienced military men reached different conclusions makes the President's job difficult, because if Afghanistan (Karzai) can't provide local governance, then our additional troop deployments won't be decisive.

Eikenberry was the personal choice of Richard Holbrooke, special representative for the region, and is highly valued at the State Department.  The military is reportedly very unhappy that he is contradicting their recommendations -- in cables that have now gone public.

Senior officials indicate that the ambassador's post-election warnings about Karzai's ability to deliver -- and clean up corruption -- are playing into the president's request for more fine-tuning on the options.

Reed indicated that redeploying resources outside of Karzai's control to provincial leaders (war lords) is as important as deciding on overall troop levels.

Partial transcript follows:
ANDREA: AMBASSADOR EIKENBERRY- KARL EIKENBERY - RETIRED GENERAL, COMMANDER OF THE FORCES THERE HAS WRITTEN THESE CABLES ADVISING THE PRESIDENT THAT THERE IS NO REAL PROSPECT THAT PRESIDENT KARZAI AND THE AFGHAN TROOPS CAN RISE TO THIS. THAT THE PRESIDENT OF AFGHANISTAN WOULD NOT ALLOW THE KIND OF TRAINING AND GRADUAL TAKEOVER THAT WE WOULD NEED TO ENSURE THIS ISNT JUST A BOTTOMLESS PIT

REED: KARL IS A VERY TALENTED AND EXPERIENCED PERSON. HE COMMANDED OUR FORCES THERE FOR SEVERAL YEARS, HE LED TRAINING THERE- HE IS SOMEONE THAT I HAVE KNOWN FOR YEARS AND I RESPECT IMMENSELY. I THINK HE IS POINTING OUT WHAT THE PRESIDENT ALREADY UNDERSTOOD THAT A LARGE PART OF THESE OPERATIONS IS LOCAL GOVERNANCE (07) AND IF WE SUPPLY MORE TROOPS AND THEY DONT SUPPLY LOCAL GOVERNANCE THEN OUR EFFORTS WONT BE DECISIVE. IT MIGHT BUY SOME MORE TIME

EVEN IF PRESIDENT KARZAI WAS ENTHUSIASTIC ETC, THE REALITY IS BEYOND KABUL THERE IS VERY LITTLE GOVERNMENT CAPACITY ANYWHERE.
AND AS WE PURSUE PARTICULARLY THIS COUNTER-INSURGENCY PROGRAM WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO AT LEAST FOR A PERIOD OF TIME SORT OF PUT TOGETHER A SURROGATE OPERATION IN TERMS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ETC.

ANDREA: IF YOU ACCEPT GENERAL- AMBASSADOR EIKENBERRY'S JUDGMENTS ON THIS WHICH WOULD LEAN TOWARD THE LOW END OF DEPLOYMENTS- YOU ARE REJECTING GENERAL MCCHRYSTAL'S COUNTERINSURGENCY PLAN.

REED: WELL I THINK WHAT YOU ARE DOING FIRST OF ALL IS RECOGNIZING HERE ARE TWO EXPERIENCED MILITARY OFFICERS DEEPLY INVOLVED IN THE HISTORY AND RECENT EXPERIENCE OF AFGHANISTAN EACH REACHING BASED UPON THEIR ANALYSIS- NOT DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED-

MITCHELL: BUT VERY DIFFERENT CONCLUSIONS?

REED: AND THIS IS WHAT MAKES THE PRESIDENT'S JOB VERY DIFFICULT. BECAUSE HE IS THE ONLY ONE AND HIS ADVISORS THAT HAVE TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION NOT JUST MILITARY STRATEGY TECHNIQUES BUT THIS ISSUE OF WILL THEIR BE AN EFFECTIVE AFGHANI GOVERNMENT? ITS VERY CHALLENGING AND THATS WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS WEIGHING NOW AND THAT'S WHY I THINK THIS CAREFUL DELIBERATION IS CRITICAL.

From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell
Sarah Barracuda is back.

The feisty former governor of Alaska is set to embark on a whirlwind campaign-style "Going Rogue" book tour that in its first week will take her to half a dozen battleground states.

Palin will make two to three stops a day traveling in a bus emblazoned with the cover of her book. The imagery and pace of her travel is almost certain to evoke images of an early presidential campaign foray, especially as she plans a December 6 visit to Iowa, site of the first in the nation presidential caucuses.

VIDEO: Oprah Tweets about Palin interview.

The book is also likely to include some juicy tidbits about the drama inside the McCain-Palin campaign. Steve Schmidt, McCain's campaign manager, recently said nominating Palin in 2012 would be "catastrophic" for the GOP. Palin's advisors have indicated privately that there will be some score-settling in her autobiography.

"There's nothing we didn't talk about," Oprah Winfrey reported last night in a video linked to her Twitter account. "Lots of her supporters didn't think she should come here." Oprah said they talked about Palin's daughter Bristol's pregnancy, Levi Johnston, Palin's infant son Trigg, and the state of Palin's marriage. "It was really an interesting interview," Palin said.

On her Facebook page Palin reported that Oprah was "hospitable and gracious," and  the audience "warm, energized and (no doubt) curious." The two women enjoyed the "great conversation" so much they went over the interview's allotted time, Palin said. The extra chatter will go on Oprah.com.

The interview will air Monday, November 16.

Palin's publisher, Harper Collins, has announced only the first part of book blitz: 13 stops in seven days to Michigan, Indiana, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama and Florida.

Eleven of those first stops are in battleground states. Her first visit to Grand Rapids, Michigan, is a nod to the fact that she threatened to "Go Rogue" by diverting her plane to Michigan after the McCain campaign decided to write off the state.

"I made a promise to the good people of Michigan that I would be back, and now I'm keeping that promise," Palin wrote on her Facebook fan page, adding, "From Michigan, the 'Going Rogue' tour will cover as much of the country as possible." She continues, "I've decided to stop in cities that are not usually included in a typical book tour."

In fact, there's nothing typical about her book tour. Instead,  it's vintage Sarah Palin.

As of this writing, no interviews with print publications have been announced and she's only chosen select television interviews. She granted her first big television appearance to Oprah Winfrey, who prominently backed Barack Obama in last year's election.

Palin will sit down with Barbara Walters next, for a five-part interview that will air on a number of ABC programs. The rest of her scheduled broadcast interviews are with Fox News Channel.

The buzz surrounding Palin's autobiography has already pushed the book to No. 2 on Amazon.com, behind Stephen King's latest thriller.

Palin has used her Facebook page, with 975,000 followers, to encourage supporters to turn out at her book signings. And in case you haven't gotten enough of Palin, she's back on Twitter, this time under the handle @SarahPalinUSA.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Around the world in 8 days: Later this afternoon, President Obama departs on his latest big overseas trip -- a whirlwind eight-day, four-country journey that will take him to Japan, Singapore, China, and South Korea. His previous trips (to Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East) helped bolster his domestic image. But that wasn't necessarily the case back in July (when he traveled to Russia and Italy) or last month (with his unsuccessful Olympics push in Copenhagen). The reason: Those trips came post-honeymoon and in the midst of the health-care debate and further concerns about the U.S. economy. While everyone focuses on Obama's rough August, White House folks will privately tell you that the president's poll numbers started coming down to earth in July right after that jaunt to Russia (in fact, our July NBC/WSJ poll showed his approval at 53%, down three points from June). This is maybe one reason why Obama's Asia schedule is so jam-packed; you can really tell the White House wants him to get back ASAP.

*** Want to get away? Then again, maybe it's not the worst thing that Obama is going to be thousands of miles and more than a dozen time zones away over the next week. First, the health-care debate in the Senate (over the public option and abortion) is going to be incredibly messy, as the sausage-making process always is. While the president effectively parachuted in over the weekend to help pass the House bill, note that involvement came at the end of the process -- not the middle, where the Senate currently is. Second, next week will be Palin-palooza, with her Oprah interview on Monday, her book going on sale Tuesday, and the book tour starting Wednesday. As we've pointed out before, Palin's publicists picked a pretty good time for her book rollout. She's going to have the political stage mostly to herself next week. 

*** No rest for the weary: The president's eight-day trip to Asia is going to be exhausting. Air Force One takes off at 9:50 am ET (but before then, Obama will deliver brief remarks on the economy at 9:15 am, in which he'll announce hosting a jobs summit next month at the White House). He will then land at Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska, where he'll meet with servicemembers and make remarks around 5:30 pm ET. Then it's off to Japan, where he arrives around 2:00 am ET. He then spends the next six days in Japan, Singapore, China, and South Korea. Given how exhausting this trip will be -- for the president, his staff, and the members of the White House press corps -- it's worth reminding everyone that Obama and many of his top aides have been working virtually non-stop over the past three years. When you add dealing with two wars, fixing an economy and trying to revamp the nation's health-care system, you see how these guys could use a break. The Washington Post's Joel Achenbach today touches on how the war in Afghanistan, in particular, has taken a toll on Obama. And as the exhaustion takes a toll on staff, how much of it is due to running into political problems which, in turn, saps whatever adrenaline they once had?

*** Calling Karzai's bluff? On the subject of Afghanistan, NBC's Mike Viqueira confirms that Obama is pushing for revisions to the plans presented that would clarify how and when U.S. troops would turn over responsibility to the Afghan government; he raised questions yesterday that could affect total number of troops that are sent to Afghanistan and the timeline for their presence in the war zone; his concerns center on the credibility of the Afghan government; and he wants to make clear that the U.S. commitment isn't open-ended. To us, this seems like an attempt to call Karzai's bluff. The White House's very public telegraph that we might not send troops -- or that we could leave A LOT sooner than Karzai thinks -- could be about squeezing him.

*** The Battleground book tour: Regarding Palin's aforementioned book tour next week, it will take her to 13 cities -- 11 of which just happen to be in presidential battleground states (Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida). What's more, nine of the 13 stops are in congressional districts won by McCain -- so she's reaching out to the GOP base. Palin starts her tour in Michigan, a battleground state the McCain campaign withdrew from the day of Biden-Palin vice presidential debate. The next day, Palin went -- you guessed it -- rogue and openly questioned the move. "I want to get back to Michigan and I want to try," she said back then. In a recent posting she made on her Facebook page announcing her book tour dates, Palin quipped: "Last year, I made a promise to the good people of Michigan that I would be back, and now I'm keeping that promise." Also, per NBC's Norah O'Donnell, Palin already has taped her appearance on Oprah. "There's nothing we didn't talk about," Oprah reported last night in a video linked to her Twitter. "Lots of her supporters didn't think she should come here." Oprah said they talked about Palin's daughter Bristol's pregnancy, Levi Johnston, Palin's infant son Trigg, and the state of Palin's marriage.

*** The GOP's purity tests? We understand why some conservatives are pillorying Charlie Crist and Olympia Snowe. After all, these two Republicans have not only worked with the Obama and the Democrats, they have a history of sometimes bucking their party. But many might not understand how Newt Gingrich (during NY-23), Sen. Bob Bennett (who's receiving a primary challenge from the right in Utah), and now Sen. Lindsey Graham have become targets. On Monday, the executive committee of the Charleston County Republican Party voted unanimously to rebuke Graham "for many of the positions he has taken that do not represent the wishes of the people of South Carolina, such as: passing a 'cap and trade' energy bill, bailing out banks and granting amnesty for illegal aliens." Ironically, just two years ago, the GOP's presidential front-runners were hardly pure conservatives -- John McCain favored liberalized immigration and opposed Bush's tax cuts, Mitt Romney had once supported abortion rights and embryonic stem-cell research, and Rudy Giuliani backed gay rights and even moved in with a gay couple (and their pet Shih Tzu) after the breakup of his second marriage. Of course, some Republicans would argue that their lack of purity is the reason why they lost in 2008.

*** Bush back in the spotlight: Speaking of 2008… Former President George W. Bush will deliver his highest-profile speech since leaving office when he outlines his vision for his Bush Institute, which will be housed in the George W. Bush Presidential Center at Southern Methodist University. The event takes place in Dallas beginning at 3:00 pm ET.

*** Pushing back on Gallup: Yesterday, we mentioned a Gallup poll showing Republicans with a four-point advantage in the generic ballot. A Democratic pollster emails First Read that the party ID in the poll is a bit "whacky," with Dems enjoying only a two-point party ID edge when you count leaners. Most national phone surveys, we're reminded, have Democrats with a double-digit party ID lead. "In short, something doesn't seem quite right in the Gallup data," the Dem pollster says. "I will grant that independents seem to be leaning toward the GOP on the generic ballot right now... But there is simply no way that Republicans and Democrats are essentially tied on party ID, and I think this calls their overall ballot numbers very much into question."

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"President Barack Obama won't accept any of the Afghanistan war options before him without changes, a senior administration official said, as concerns soar over the ability of the Afghan government to secure its own country one day," the AP writes. "Obama's stance comes as his own ambassador in Afghanistan, Karl Eikenberry, is voicing strong dissent about a U.S. troop increase, according to a second administration official."

The Washington Post says Eikenberry "sent two classified cables to Washington in the past week expressing deep concerns about sending more U.S. troops to Afghanistan until President Hamid Karzai's government demonstrates that it is willing to tackle the corruption and mismanagement that has fueled the Taliban's rise," the Washington Post says. "Eikenberry's memos, sent as President Obama enters the final stages of his deliberations over a new Afghanistan strategy, illustrated both the difficulty of the decision and the deepening divisions within the administration's national security team."

The New York Times: "Mr. Obama asked General Eikenberry about his concerns during the meeting on Wednesday, officials said, and raised questions about each of the four military options and how they might be tinkered with or changed. A central focus of Mr. Obama's questions, officials said, was how long it would take to see results and be able to withdraw. 'He wants to know where the off-ramps are,' one official said." 

The Wall Street Journal: "A White House official said Mr. Obama made requests that could lead to significantly altering any or all of the choices, changing the number of troops involved and the length of their deployment. The official said Mr. Obama asked for specific timelines in each scenario for when U.S. troops would turn over security to Afghan forces. In the past, senior military officials have resisted such timelines. The key points of contention, the official added, were the timelines and questions about the credibility of the Karzai government -- both issues raised by Mr. Eikenberry in his cables and elsewhere."

The Washington Post notes how the war in Afghanistan has taken a toll on Obama. "War and tragedy are putting President Obama through the most wrenching period of his young administration. Visibly thinner, admittedly skipping meals, he is learning every day the challenges of a wartime presidency. Health-care reform, climate-change legislation, the broken economy -- all are cerebral exercises compared with the grim responsibility of being the commander in chief." 

In other news, TPM's Bellantoni takes a look at Obama's Organizing for America. "Nine months ago when the Democrats who ran Barack's Obama campaign created Organizing for America, no one was sure exactly how it would work or whether it was possible to harness the enthusiasm for the new president and translate it into action. But nearing the anniversary of Obama's election, OFA has strengthened into a (smaller) mirror of the campaign, with volunteers in every single Congressional district and staff on the ground in every state but Oklahoma. They also are growing the Obama donor base."

The Hill's Youngman makes the point that with Obama in Asia, health reform is losing its best advocate at a critical time.

USA Today examines the abortion debate in the health-care bill. "How congressional leaders resolve the issue as the health care debate moves to the Senate could determine whether legislation becomes law this year or next. Kaiser Family Foundation's Alina Salganicoff calls it a 'hugely charged issue' fraught with 'huge unanswered questions.' Right to Life's Douglas Johnson predicts: 'This is going to be a long, drawn-out battle.'" 

Politico: "Abortion-rights advocates are calling in the cavalry to help fight off an anti-abortion provision House Democratic leaders swallowed in order to win passage of their health care reform bill." 

"Labor unions pounced on the idea of a new jobs bill as a way to include several provisions that were cut out of the $787 billion stimulus package in order to placate a trio of Republican senators," The Hill writes.  "A day after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) told colleagues he plans to bring up such a measure ... the AFL-CIO began pressing lawmakers to include more fiscal aid for state and local governments and more spending on infrastructure."

"Democratic leaders plan to repeal the military's 'Don't ask, don't tell' policy in next year's defense authorization bill. Both the White House and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) back the strategy of using the defense bill to change policy on gays in the military, an aide to Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) told The Hill on Wednesday." First hate crimes, now "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." It's hard for Republicans to vote against defense funding.

"The bishop from America's most Catholic state [Rhode Island], and increasingly one of the church's most provocative prelates, has provided a rather concise explanation for his willingness to clash with politicians: Christians are not supposed to be nice, at least not all the time," The Boston Globe writes, adding, "Since his installation in 2005, he has challenged the Republican governor's crackdown on illegal immigration, inserted himself into last year's Republican presidential primary with a rebuke of Rudolph Giuliani on the abortion issue (in which he addressed him familiarly as 'Rudy' in a commentary), and took on President Obama in a mock interview published in another of his columns (in which he facetiously quotes Obama advancing the rights of foreigners 'to kill their children and use abortion as a form of birth control.')"

The New York Times previews George W. Bush's speech in Dallas, which will outline his vision for his Bush Institute. "In a speech at Southern Methodist University, home of his future library and museum, the former president will kick off the new George W. Bush Institute as a forum for study and advocacy in four main areas: education, global health, human freedom and economic growth. Advisers said he hoped his institute would be more focused on producing results than many research organizations are. Mr. Bush will announce the appointment of the first five of two dozen scholars to be affiliated with the institute, which has already scheduled a half-dozen conferences for next year, according to organizers." 

Speaking of Texas… "Texas GOP Gov. Rick Perry accused President Barack Obama on Wednesday of 'punishing' Texas and being "hell-bent" on turning the United States into a socialist country," Politico says. "Speaking at a luncheon for a Midland County Republican Women's group, Perry said that 'this is an administration hell-bent toward taking American towards a socialist country. And we all don't need to be afraid to say that because that's what it is.'"

Sen. Lindsey Graham "has been censured by local Republican Party officials in his home state of South Carolina," the New York Times says. "The executive committee of the Charleston County Republican Party voted unanimously on Monday to rebuke Mr. Graham 'for many of the positions he has taken that do not represent the wishes of the people of South Carolina, such as: passing a 'cap and trade' energy bill, bailing out banks and granting amnesty for illegal aliens.' Lin Bennett, the chairwoman of the local party, told the Charleston Post and Courier that party leaders were 'fed up.'" 

Roll Call points out that the local GOP party in Charleston that censured Lindsey Graham for being too liberal has ties to the Tea Party movement.

Dede Scozzafava was on MSNBC yesterday and said: "I don't think it's good for the health of our party -- any party that just tries to purge members that might have any sort of independent thinking, I think, eventually will run itself to very much of a minority status. I think any sort of party has to be willing to solve the problems. And in order to solve problems, you have to look at things sometimes differently. And you do have to drive towards some sort of consensus building. Otherwise, you have ideology that`s really not based on any sort of substance that can move an agenda forward, that can really help people in this country."

Sarah Palin says she's already taped the Oprah interview that will air on Monday. "Willow, Piper, and I are in Chicago and just wanted to let you know that I had a great conversation with Oprah today," she writes to her friends on Facebook. "We taped the show for Monday, November 16th, and enjoyed it so much that we went way over on time. The rest will air on Oprah.com. Oprah was very hospitable and gracious, and her audience was full of warm, energized and (no doubt) curious viewers."

Tim Pawlenty heads to New Hampshire Dec. 16th to keynote a fundraiser for the Republican Senate Majority Committee PAC. "The outgoing governor has been busy in recent days, having attended a fundraiser in Iowa over weekend. He will be visiting Florida and Texas in the near future, as well," The Hill writes.

Nathan Gonzales warns that the White House's desire to nationalize the 2010 elections could have consequences for Democrats: "[S]ome of the most vulnerable House Democrats represent districts won by Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) last year, and those Members may not be all that excited about a national referendum on Obama's job performance. Furthermore, nationalizing the 2010 midterms could throw fuel on an already inflamed GOP electorate."
 
More: "The White House plans to nationalize the 2010 elections on its own terms by putting the president front and center in order to minimize the party's losses, Axelrod explained to NBC's 'First Read.' The plan is to use the 2002 elections -- when Republicans gained eight House seats and two Senate seats in President George W. Bush's first midterm elections -- as a blueprint. But there is an underlying assumption that Obama will be at least as popular next November as he is this year. And Democrats appear to want the turnout benefits that a national election may bring without any of the backlash."

ARKANSAS: "Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), facing the prospect of a tough re-election bid next year, is under pressure from a liberal activist group to support a motion to proceed on health care reform legislation that is poised to hit the Senate floor next week. Lincoln has been on the fence on whether she would support a bill with a government-funded public insurance option." (Here's the ad.)

NEW JERSEY: "Now that the gubernatorial election is over, Republicans in Burlington, Ocean and Camden Counties are starting to focus on recruiting someone to take on freshman U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) next year," PolitickerNJ reports. "There is a deep bench of potential candidates, but some Republicans have one in mind who could clear the field: Philadelphia Eagles legend Jon Runyan, a Mount Laurel resident."

OHIO: Not good news for the Democrats here. GOP Senate candidate Rob Portman is leading both Democrats, Lee Fisher and Jennifer Brunner, according to the latest Quinnipiac poll. Also, Obama's approval rating in the state is just 45%.

UTAH: After Florida, this could be Tea Party's next-biggest stop: "Conservatives have turned to Florida as the central front in their battle with the GOP establishment, but the battle for the Republican Senate nomination in Utah could emerge as the real Tea Party contest. State Attorney General Mark Shurtleff's exit from the race last week paved the way for other candidates to emerge. Though none of them hold statewide offices, or even local ones, they do appear to stand a better chance of luring conservative activists. Those activists happen to be the group Sen. Bob Bennett (R-Utah) has problems with, and they play an outsized role in the nominating process."

From NBC's Kelly Paice
On this Veterans Day, First Lady Michelle Obama and Dr. Jill Biden joined ServiceNation to express their support and gratitude for the nation's veterans, servicemembers, and their families. They also helped inaugurate the launch of ServiceNation's Mission Serve initiative that works to partner civilian and military service organizations across the country.

More than 50 organizations -- including Blue Star Families, Big Brothers and Big Sisters, Give an Hour, and Student Veterans of America -- have come together on a mission to serve, offering the opportunity to bridge the gap from military to civilian life for returning servicemembers by allowing them to apply their military skills to civilian service. Veteran and Chairman of Mission Serve Col. (Ret.) Robert Gordon described the initiative as "meaningfully integrating service to country with service to community."
 
Mrs. Obama expressed her appreciation for America's military servicemembers, saying: "One of the greatest privileges that I have as first lady is the chance to meet with veterans, and to meet with servicemembers, and their families all across America. And I have to tell you, I always come away from every single visit with this sense of pride, and gratitude -- but also with a sense of awe. True awe."
 
She continued, "All of these men and women, they joined our armed forces because they love this country so much that they're willing to give everything they have to protect it. And that commitment, it doesn't just disappear when they return to civilian life... For many of these folks, service is the air they breathe. It's the reason they were put here on this Earth. And they don't just want to serve for a certain number of years of deployment -- they want to make their entire life a tour of duty."
 
As Mrs. Biden reflected on her son Beau's recent return from a tour in Iraq, she expressed the inspiration she feels in witnessing "the deep commitment to our nation" America's veterans and military servicemembers possess.
 
MTV's Sway Calloway emceed today's event at George Washington University, where Alma Powell, chair of America's Promise Alliance and wife of Colin Powell, was recognized as the first recipient of the annual ServiceNation Award for Excellence in Military and Civilian Service. Mrs. Powell captured the spirit of Mission Serve as she concluded, "It is important that we affirm today that it is all of us working in partnership to build a better America."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Tom Ricks was unimpressed with President Obama's Fort Hood speech:

I think President Obama missed a major opportunity at Fort Hood on Tuesday. His speech was fine was far as it went -- but that wasn't very far. It felt very conventional, a bit rote and obligational, like Reagan on an off day, doing a state fair stopoff on the way to the Western White House. What I had hoped for was a passionate, engaged address that tackled political correctness in the same was as did his race speech during the campaign, which I think was his high point during that time. It was a terrific speech that I think moved both him and the country forward. (Look inside the Army, Mr. President, and  you will find "Ashleys" everywhere.)

Didn't happen. This was a treading water speech. "We must pay tribute to their stories?" That feels to me more like the work of a desperate speechwriter than an inspired, transformational president. I dunno, maybe transcendence just requires more time and effort than he has available right now. That's sad, because there are a lot of people in this country for whom the military looms about as large as race.

I really do think Obama still could be a great president, leading us toward "a more perfect union." But not the way he has been going lately. Time is  passing ... Look at this speech. "History is filled with heroes"? That's high school stuff. I can remember when the knock on Obama's speeches was that they were too good.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Dan Balz, in his latest analysis piece, makes a point we've been thinking about here: the Pawlenty-Romney comparison:

Still, there is something Romneyesque in all this. Four years ago, Romney lurched to the right in preparation for his presidential candidacy. He did it on social issues, where his prior support for abortion and gay rights left him vulnerable on his right flank. Pawlenty has a consistent record of opposition to abortion and gay marriage. In his case, he appears to be catering to the conservative, populist anger on the right, which is challenging the party establishment and attacking Obama in sometimes extreme language.
 
The real risk for Pawlenty, as Romney learned in his unsuccessful 2008 campaign, is losing his true voice and his authenticity. Romney spent so much time trying to reposition himself and picking narrow tactical fights with his rivals that the qualities that might have made him a more attractive candidate were lost in the smoke. But once a candidate starts down that road, it can be hard to pull back.

It is an interesting point. Authenticity was Romney's biggest problem in 2008. There was no escaping his RECENT more liberal record and comments as governor of Massachusetts, a state with ZERO Republican members of Congress.

Pawlenty has a similar problem -- a Republican governor hailing from a blue state needing to tack to the right to win over conservatives. As Balz points out, Pawlenty's never been a red-meat guy, and his tone nowadays is A LOT different than right after the election. In addition to the missteps Balz outlines -- not the least of which was intimating that Olympia Snowe didn't belong in the party -- he was late to the game in NY-23, first saying he wasn't following what was happening there, then endorsing the Conservative Party candidate only after Sarah Palin did.

Next week, Pawlenty speaks again before the Republican Governors Association's annual conference in Austin, Texas. Last year, at the RGA, he delivered some tough medicine to his party and seemed to be trying to draw a distinction between himself and Palin.

Now, he's following her.

*** UPDATE *** A Pawlenty adviser responds in an e-mail to First Read: "Some people may assume that Governor Pawlenty's a moderate since he hails from such a liberal-leaning state, but in fact his record is consistently conservative. Since he ran as a conservative and governered as a conservative, it should be no surprise that he continues to lead as a conservative now. He feels strongly that President Obama and Congressional Democrats are leading the country in the wrong direction on health care and deficit spending, and he's going to say so."

*** UPDATE 2 *** The Pawlenty adviser disagrees that Pawlenty's "rhetoric is different. Governor Pawlenty's obviously critical of Obama -- but that's more a reflection of Obama now governing as a movement liberal after running as a post-partisan pragmatist.

"'Our party is not big enough to be throwing people out' is a message he repeats everywhere he goes, including his 'Pretzels & Pints' event in DC, and his recent speech to Western CPAC. Most recently, Pawlenty's speech in Iowa included a strong call-to-action to attract more people into the Republican Party by doing a better job of communicationg our ideas, and relating our principles to the problems facing average folks."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The New York Times reports that Sen. Lindsey Graham has been censured by the Charleston County Republican Party -- in a unanimous vote.

Why?

"For many of the positions he has taken that do not represent the wishes of the people of South Carolina, such as: passing a 'cap and trade' energy bill, bailing out banks and granting amnesty for illegal aliens."
 
The local chair said, "The feeling is if you're not going to uphold the platform, then why bother to run as a Republican?"

Graham's office pointed to the senator being "ranked the 15th most conservative senator in 2008 by National Journal."

Remember, Graham also voted in favor of Sonia Sotomayor. And reporters, who were camped out in South Carolina before both parties' primaries last year, will remember this ad:

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Next week is going to be Palin-palooza with her new book, "Going Rogue," out Tuesday.

On Monday, she'll be on Oprah. On Wednesday she's embarking on a whirlwind, seven-day, 13 city tour that's sure to sell lots of books.

Here are some points after looking at the tour dates (released yesterday on Palin's Facebook page):

• Battleground America: 11 of the 13 stops are in battleground states
• Real America Tour? Not only is she eschewing the big cities, but nine of the 13 stops are in congressional districts won by McCain. The ones won by Obama are either swing presidential districts or places where a good potential GOP candidate could unseat the Democrat.
• Bookends: The bookend states -- Michigan and Florida -- are the primary states that the Democrats had their delegate fight over during the 2008 primaries. 
• Potential for Fireworks: Her last date is in FL-8, represented by... Alan "Die Quickly" Grayson. We'll see if he shows up at that Barnes & Noble. 

The full pre-Thanksgiving schedule after the jump...

Nov. 18:
GRAND RAPIDS, MI
Barnes & Noble
3195 28th Street SE
Space B116
Grand Rapids, MI 49512
6:00 – 9:00 PM
 
MI-3: McCain 49-49 | Ehlers (R) 61-35
 
Nov. 19:
FORT WAYNE, IN
Meijer's
10301 Maysville Road
Fort Wayne, IN 46835
12:00 – 3:00 PM
 
IN-3: McCain 56-43 | Souder (R) 55-40
 
NOBLESVILLE, IN
Borders Books and Music
13145 Levinson Lane
Noblesville, IN 46060
6:00 – 9:00 PM
 
IN-5: McCain 59-40 | Burton (R) 66-35
 
Nov. 20:
CINCINNATI, OH
Joseph-Beth Booksellers
2692 Madison Road
Cincinnati OH 45208
12:00 – 3:00 PM
 
OH-1: Obama 55-44 | Dreihaus (D) 52-47
 
COLUMBUS, OH
Borders Books and Music
6670 Sawmill Road
Columbus, OH 43235
6:00 – 9:00 PM
 
OH-12: Obama 54-44 | Tiberi (R) 55-42
 
Nov. 21:
WASHINGTON, PA
Sam's Club
80 Trinity Point Drive
Washington, PA 15301
11:00 AM – 2:00 PM
 
PA-12: McCain 49-49 | Murtha (D) 58-42
 
ROCHESTER, NY
Borders Books and Music
1000 Hylan Drive
Rochester, NY 14623
6:00 – 9:00 PM
 
NY-29: McCain 50-48 | Massa (D) 51-49
(only one of 3 CDs McCain won in NY)
 
Nov. 22:
ROANOKE, VA
Barnes & Noble
4802 Valley View Boulevard NW
Roanoke, VA 24012
11:00 AM – 2:00 PM
 
VA-6: McCain 57-42 | Goodlatte (R) 62-37
 
Nov. 23:
FORT BRAGG, NC
AAFES Bragg N Main Shop
Bldg 8-5050, 2nd & Butner Road
Ft. Bragg, NC 28307
11:00 AM – 2:00 PM
 
NC-2: Obama 52-47 | Etheridge (D) 67-31
 
BIRMINGHAM, AL
Books-A-Million
757 Brookwood Village
Birmingham/Homewood, AL 32509
4:30 – 7:30 PM
 
AL-6: McCain 74-25 | Bachus (R) 98 - no candidate
 
Nov. 24:
JACKSONVILLE, FL AREA
Books-A-Million
Orange Park Mall
1910 Wells Road
Orange Park, FL 32073
9:00 – 11:00 AM
 
FL-6: McCain 56-43 | Stearns (R) 61-39
 
THE VILLAGES, FL
Barnes & Noble
1055 Old Camp Road
The Villages, FL 32162
2:30 – 5:00 PM
 
FL-5: McCain 56-43 | Brown-Waite (R) 61-39
 
ORLANDO, FL
Barnes & Noble
Colonial Plaza Market Center
2418 East Colonial Drive
Orlando, FL 32803
7:30 – 10:00 PM
 
FL-8: Obama 52-47 | Grayson (D): 52-48

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Obama's four options: On this Veterans Day, at 2:30 pm ET, President Obama meets with his national security team for the eighth and possibly final time to discuss what to do in Afghanistan. Obama received two new options yesterday, in addition to the other two that had been debated for some time, and all of them increase the number of troops there. On the low end, one option (supported by Vice President Biden) sends an additional 10,000 to 15,000. On the high end is a proposal for the 40,000 to 44,000 troops that Gen. McChrystal has requested. As NBC's Savannah Guthrie first reported last night, Defense Secretary Gates supports a middle option of sorts that gives McChrystal nearly all he wants -- but not quite. And today's New York Times adds that Joint Chiefs Chairman Mullen and Secretary of State Clinton also back that middle proposal.

Video: President Obama meets with his war team amid reports he's made a decision to add tens of thousands of troops to Afghanistan, reports the White house denies.

*** The clock is ticking: Obama's decision is likely to come at the end of Thanksgiving week or the week after. But the calendar is a real factor here: If the president orders all the troops McChrystal wants, it still will take more than a year to get them in to the country. But McChrystal said in his report that "failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near-term (next 12 months) … risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible." Bottom line: The president doesn't like his options; it's why he keeps asking for more plans from his military advisers. Notice that in his Fort Hood speech yesterday, he was careful to link Pakistan and Afghanistan together. Obama believes the focus of the war effort in Afghanistan should be regional and tactical and about al Qaeda and other extremists. By constantly linking Afghanistan and Pakistan together, the administration is sending the message it is NOT in the business of nation-building. And now the key players in the White House are even more skeptical of their partner in Afghanistan (read: Karzai). One gets the sense if the president would love to figure out a way to use this moment to fundamentally change the perception of what America is doing in the region.

*** The speech at Fort Hood: As for Obama's remarks yesterday at Fort Hood, it could very well be a speech that's going to be remembered and quoted for some time. It struck the right balance of commander-in-chief and consoler-in-chief, which isn't easy. And it's always a greater challenge for a president who did not wear the uniform to honor those who have. The president also seemed to touch on the Muslim issue without dwelling on it. Again, it was a difficult balance -- but one that was necessary in this current climate. Meanwhile, the real headaches for the administration are beginning to come into focus as various government entities begin the CYA process. Today alone, there seems to be a fair share of finger-pointing over who knew what about Hasan's contacts with a radical cleric. These stories all have the potential to become political land mines. Because of that don't be surprised if, in short order, we see some blue-ribbon panel/investigation body or something get convened.

*** The Race for 60: On health care, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said yesterday that he plans to bring his bill to the floor next week. But that will be the easy part. As a top Democrat in the Senate told NBC's David Gregory, "Everyone in the caucus realizes that we have to pass a bill, but no one can quite figure out the path [to 60]." The two more contentious matters: the public option and abortion. That said, Bill Clinton's Capitol Hill visit must have paid dividends after Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) said this, per the Washington Post: Nelson, "the only Democrat who has yet to support bringing a bill to the Senate floor, noted that Clinton appealed to lawmakers not to expect their ideological ideal. 'He said you need to pass the best bill that you can,' Nelson said. 'Getting the best bill is not only good for the people, it's good politics -- and it's that simple.'" 

*** Two strategies for Reid: Here's something to ponder: What's the better strategy for Reid -- calling the bluff of Nelson/Lincoln/Lieberman/Snowe and seeing how intent they are in filibustering (so Reid can placate those on the left), or avoiding that PUBLIC moment and negotiating behind the scenes to a point that gets those centrists on board? There's a divide among some, but don't be surprised if Reid goes the public route (as it's the best way to show the left that he did everything he could do), then goes back to the trigger to move it out of the Senate. What's Reid got to lose doing that? Who knows, maybe Nelson/Lieberman/Lincoln/Snowe come aboard earlier than expected…

*** Tied in Ohio: Was there a Republican honeymoon post-Election Day '09? Perhaps. Back in September, a Quinnipiac poll had Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) with a 10-point lead over likely challenger John Kasich (R), 46%-36%. Well, a new Quinnipiac survey now has Strickland and Kasich tied at 40% each. What's more, the poll has Strickland's approval at 45%, his lowest score ever in this survey. As we've said before, this isn't a good time to be an incumbent governor. Looking ahead to next year's midterms -- and also the 2012 presidential race -- one thing to watch will be to see how Democratic Govs. Strickland (in Ohio), Ritter (in Colorado), and Culver (in Iowa) all fare next year. All three states, remember, are red ones that Obama carried last year.

*** Helping the GOP's recruiting pitch: In addition, Republicans today are likely to seize on a new Gallup poll showing them with a four-point edge on the 2010 generic ballot test. Our NBC/WSJ poll last month had Dems with an eight-point advantage. The Quinnipiac and Gallup surveys couldn't have come at a better time for the GOP, as they put the final sale on prospective candidates for the House, in particular. There are many House GOP leaders who would truly like to make a run at the majority in 2010, but they need more quality candidates in more races. A poll like this is a boost to their sales pitch.

*** Tracking the stimulus: Don't miss MSNBC.com's brand-new application tracking the stimulus.

*** Obama on Veterans Day: In addition to his meeting on Afghanistan, President Obama and the first lady host a Veterans Day breakfast at the White House at 9:05 am ET. Then the two head over to Arlington National Cemetery to participate in a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknowns at 11:00 am, and the president will deliver remarks 25 minutes later. Also today, Vice President Biden hosts a lunch for veterans and servicemembers at the Naval Observatory at noon.

Countdown to MA Special Primary: 27 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 69 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 356 days

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The New York Times on Obama's speech yesterday: "President Obama took on the role of national eulogist on Tuesday for the first time since assuming office as he led the country in mourning 13 active and retired soldiers gunned down not on a foreign battlefield but here on their home post by one of their own… Although Mr. Obama had spoken at the funeral of Senator Edward M. Kennedy and made a post-midnight visit to Dover Air Force Base to salute the returning dead, this was the first time he had served as the nation's comforter at a time of major tragedy. These are moments that can define a president, as when Bill Clinton eulogized the Oklahoma City bombing victims or George W. Bush gave voice to the anguish of a nation after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001."

The Los Angeles Times adds: "The speech left some of the thousands of military personnel and civilians in attendance in tears. It appeared that Obama too had to compose himself at times."

The New York Post puts Obama's speech at Fort Hood on its cover.

Video: Rachel Maddow reports on the Fort Hood memorial service, including President Obama's speech.

"Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton are coalescing around a proposal to send 30,000 or more additional American troops to Afghanistan, but President Obama remains unsatisfied with answers he has gotten about how vigorously the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan would help execute a new strategy, administration officials said Tuesday," the New York Times says. "Mr. Obama is to consider four final options in a meeting with his national security team on Wednesday, his press secretary, Robert Gibbs, told reporters. The options outline different troop levels, other officials said, but they also assume different goals — including how much of Afghanistan the troops would seek to control — and different time frames and expectations for the training of Afghan security forces."

The Washington Times does its curtain-raiser on the president's trip to Asia, noting that most of the leg work has been about avoiding pitfalls. "At his first stop in Japan, U.S. officials have worked to forestall a thorny debate over American military bases. In Southeast Asia, they have tried to dampen expectations for the first-ever interaction between an American president and the brutal military ruler in Myanmar. In South Korea, discussion of Seoul's refusal to import American cars will take a back seat to expressing gratitude for South Korean contributions to the war in Afghanistan. And in China, the administration's top trade officials have worked to smooth over a recent flap over low-cost Chinese tire imports, while Mr. Obama's advance team has struggled to hash out an itinerary that will enable Mr. Obama to address the Chinese people directly."

"President Barack Obama still has the public approval of a majority of Americans, but he finds himself governing an increasingly pessimistic country," according to an new AP-GFK poll. "Obama's approval rating stands at 54 percent, roughly the same as in October but very different from the enthusiastic 74 percent in January just before he took office. And some 56 percent of people say the country is heading in the wrong direction, an uptick from 51 percent last month and 49 percent in Obama's first month as president."
 
On foreign policy: "Compared with October, 45 percent of people now disapprove of Obama's handling of Iraq, up from 37 percent; while 48 percent now disapprove of his handling of Afghanistan, up from 41 percent. A majority of Americans oppose both wars. And more than half -- 54 percent -- now oppose sending more troops to Afghanistan, an increase from 50 percent last month."

How many other stories like this will we start to see across the country? "While Massachusetts recipients of federal stimulus money collectively report 12,374 jobs saved or created, a Globe review shows that number is wildly exaggerated. Organizations that received stimulus money miscounted jobs, filed erroneous figures, or claimed jobs for work that has not yet started. The Globe's finding is based on the federal government's just-released accounts of stimulus spending at the end of October. " 
 
Our friends at msnbc.com have several features related to the stimulus, including a tracker, a piece describing some of the projects, including a "bat gate" (no, it's not for batman).

Per The Hill, here was Bill Clinton's message to Senate Democrats yesterday: "The worst thing we can do is nothing." More: "Clinton called on Democrats to be ready to compromise, something his administration was criticized for not doing in 1993 and 1994. By contrast, Obama has been flexible -- some critics say too flexible -- on the ingredients of the bill he hopes to sign into law."

More from the New York Times: "'It's not important to be perfect here,' Mr. Clinton said, recounting his comments to reporters after the lunch. 'It's important to act, to move, to start the ball rolling, to claim the evident advantages that all these plans agree with, and whatever they can get the votes for I'm going to support.' He added, 'I think it is good politics to pass this and to pass it as soon as they can.'"

Meanwhile, "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) got the ball rolling on the health care reform debate Tuesday night by starting the process for putting the House-passed bill on the official Senate calendar," Roll Call says.

The Wall Street Journal looks at how Republicans overall have become more conservative on abortion, by virtue of having fewer moderates in its caucus. In May 2001, President George W. Bush signed an executive order banning U.S. foreign assistance to overseas groups that performed abortions or supported abortion rights. "Thirty-three Republicans in 2001 broke with their party to oppose the overseas ban. On Saturday, by comparison, no Republicans crossed the aisle on the abortion vote. The difference? Of the 33 Republicans who opposed the ban in 2001, 26 have since retired or been ousted from office. Nearly all were replaced by Democrats, with the heaviest shift coming in states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut."

Sen. Chris Dodd is not just rolling over for the White House on regulatory reform; perhaps he's got an eye toward a certain date in November 2010, election, er, re-election day? "The plan by Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D-Conn.) would shatter the existing regulatory structure, installing a new federal banking authority to take the place of four agencies, a bold step the Obama administration declined to take."
 
More: "But Dodd's decision to offer a plan significantly different from legislation moving through the House further complicates White House efforts to pass an overhaul by year's end, efforts already hampered by Republican opposition. It also promises to ratchet up the intense lobbying on Capitol Hill over the most far-reaching changes to financial rules since the Great Depression.

The AP says the bill proposes stripping "the Federal Reserve of its supervisory powers and creating instead three federal agencies to police banks, protect consumers, and dismantle failing institutions. The 1,136-page bill … would represent a significant shift in power in federal oversight of the US market. The Fed has been a dominant figure in managing the economy, although many lawmakers blame the central bank for not doing enough to prevent last year's crisis."

The Washington Post gets into the legislative maneuvering. "If he can persuade a majority of Senate Democrats to sign on to his proposal, his vision for regulatory reform could prove tough to derail. While the House is also considering a bill on financial regulation, the Senate debate could be decisive because its final version would be more difficult to change given the challenge of garnering the necessary votes there."

A second stimulus? "Senate Democrats will take up a new job-creation bill in the wake of the 10.2 percent unemployment rate, Majority Leader Harry Reid told his colleagues Tuesday. Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) told The Hill that Reid (D-Nev.) made the announcement about a new jobs bill at the Senate Democrats' weekly lunch."

FLORIDA: Another NY-23? In FL-8, Alan "Die Quickly" Grayson's district, a 28-year-old GOP newcomer has gotten lots of key endorsements and gotten a lot of buzz, "but GOP operatives in Washington and the district say he is running a destructive primary campaign, and national and local leaders are doing just about anything they can to avoid having him as their nominee," The Hill reports.

MASSACHUSETTS: Rep. Michael Capuano, running for U.S. Senate against state Attorney General Martha Coakley, blasted Coakley on Monday for saying she would have voted against the House health bill because of the abortion amendment. Yesterday, Capuano changed his tune. "If the bill comes back the same way as it left the House, I would vote against it," Capuano said in an interview. "I am a prochoice person, and I do believe this is [necessary] to provide health care for everyone."

OHIO: As we've said before, it's not a good time to be governor. Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is now tied with likely GOP challenger John Kasich, 40%-40%, according to a new Quinnipiac poll. He has just a 45%/43% job approval rating and just a 38%/37% fav/unfav, his worst ever. What's driving this? The economy. Just 33% approve of his handling of the economy; 52% disapprove. Ohio's unemployment is 10.1%, though that's down from a high of 11.1% this past summer.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
When former President Bill Clinton walked into the Capitol this afternoon for luncheon with Senate Democrats, he pushed a healthcare proposal championed by Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe. But based on the context of his comments he was probably more joking and courteous, than serious. 

"I'm gonna tell them Olympia [Snowe] is right. They ought to follow Olympia," he said with a big grin as he walked away. Snowe's proposal would allow a public option to be "triggered" in states only if private companies failed to offer affordable insurance plans.

As was written in First Thoughts this morning, Clinton has strong ties to the Senate centrists who could very well decide the fate of the health-care bill in the Senate. Clinton was governor when Ben Nelson served as governor of Nebraska; Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor just happen to represent Clinton's home state of Arkansas; and Clinton and Joe Lieberman used to be very close personally and ideologically -- before the Lewinsky scandal. During the 2008 campaign, Clinton seemed to find his stride campaigning in red America -- in places that are similar politically to Arkansas, Nebraska, Indiana, etc. Clinton's at his best when he's giving others political advice, and he excels at framing an argument better than just about anyone on the political stage.

Video: The Huffington Post's Lawrence O'Donnell discusses how the direct advocacy by former President Clinton affects health reform passage in the Senate .

Clinton had just passed the metal detector at what's called the Senate's "carriage entrance." After Clinton's staff told him he didn't have to walk through the metal detector, he spotted Snowe.

Snowe and Clinton have a long history both inside and outside of Washington. Snowe is the wife of former Maine Gov. John McKernan. Clinton and McKernan crossed paths during their tenures as governors. Snowe and Hillary Clinton crossed paths as governor's wives and later as senators.

Clinton shook Snowe's hand, and there was some faint talk of healthcare as well as his upcoming meeting with Democrats. But after a minute or so, I asked Clinton what his message would be for the Democratic caucus. With his classic smile and laugh, he said simply, "Ask them, 'When I get finished?' "

Before he walked away, he shook Snowe's hand a final time.

"I'm gonna tell them Olympia is right," he said. "They ought to follow Olympia."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Healer-in-Chief: The commander-in-chief tries to become the nation's healer-in-chief when he travels to Texas to participate in the memorial service at Fort Hood after Thursday's massacre there. President Obama and the first lady arrive in Killeen, TX at 12:25 pm ET; they meet with the families who lost loved ones in the tragedy at 12:50 pm; they then meet with wounded soldiers and their families at 1:20 pm; finally, the president addresses the Fort Hood community at 2:00 pm. These kind of moments are BIG for presidents; in fact, they're more defining than presidents themselves sometimes realize. Does Obama say anything about some of the reaction we've seen to Muslims serving in the military? (Yesterday, the conservative group America Family Association called for the purging of Muslim soldiers in the U.S. armed forces.) It would be surprising if he did NOT address this potential firestorm which, while not yet spreading, is no where near contained. That said, stories like this piece in the Washington Post on Maj. Hasan's warnings of Muslim uprisings INSIDE the military will only make this issue of Hasan's religion a continued focal point.

*** No decision on Afghanistan -- yet: Per NBC's Savannah Guthrie, senior White House sources dispute the reports that the president has made up his mind to deploy more than 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. In fact, the White House says President Obama has NOT decided. One senior official, who spoke to the president yesterday on the subject, stressed that Obama had not made up his mind. A senior U.S. military official adds to NBC's Jim Miklaszewski that Defense Secretary Gates and the Joint Chiefs have NOT yet presented the president with additional options that he asked for more than a week ago; they are expected to do that later this week, and Guthrie says the White House is awaiting four options. But while the White House is pushing back on this 30,000-plus number, that doesn't mean this won't be the administration's ultimate decision. The concerted effort to push back has to do with the administration's belief that the focus should be on its new strategy, not on troop levels. As for a decision, it obviously won't come during his trip to Asia (Press Secretary Gibbs himself all but said that yesterday). Will he really let Thanksgiving go by before announcing?

*** Bubba heads to the Hill: Former President Bill Clinton heads to Capitol Hill today to speak to Democratic senators at their weekly caucus meeting at 1:45 pm ET. The topic, of course, will be health care. What's particularly interesting is that Clinton has strong ties to the Senate centrists who could very well decide the fate of the health-care bill in the Senate. Clinton was governor when Ben Nelson served as governor of Nebraska; Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor just happen to represent Clinton's home state of Arkansas; and Clinton and Joe Lieberman used to be VERY close personally and ideologically -- all before the Lewinsky scandal. In particular, what kind of advice does Clinton give to Lincoln and Pryor? What does he say to Lieberman (if the Connecticut senator ends up attending)? During the '08 campaign, Clinton found his stride campaigning in, well, red America -- in places that are similar politically to Arkansas, Nebraska, Indiana, etc. Clinton's at his best when he's giving OTHERS political advice, and he excels at framing an argument better than just about anyone on the political stage today.

*** NARAL -- fired up and ready to go? Staying with health care… Is the pro-choice community considering funding primary challenges to pro-life Dems? Sounds like it from this Politics Daily report. "It's too early to say whether the abortion rights lobby is a sleeping giant, but it is definitely, some would say finally, awake. Nancy Keenan, president of NARAL ProChoice America, was in a fighting mood in an interview on Monday. 'There's elections coming up in 2010. We will know who stood with us and who stood against us,' she told me. The latter, she said, may face primary challenges. 'Nothing's off the table,' she said. 'It's a new day and I'm here to tell you we're going to hold those accountable who voted against us.' This would be a departure. According to Keenan, her group has supported a challenger in a Democratic primary only once." What will the pro-choice community say today in response to Rep. Loretta Sanchez's (D-CA) contention on "Morning Joe" today that there are only approximately 150 pro-choice votes in Congress? This is the unintended consequence of trying to become a big-tent party on certain issues (like guns and abortion).

*** RGA loses two in one day: Just one week after the GOP's wins in New Jersey and Virginia, we assumed that Republicans would be gaining key gubernatorial candidates -- not losing them. But that's exactly what happened yesterday. First, up-and-coming Colorado Republican Josh Penry announced that he wouldn't run for governor, which essentially means that former GOP Rep. Scott McInnis will be the Republican who will challenge Gov. Bill Ritter (D) next year. Then, Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell (R) said she won't run for another term next year, which gives Dems a pretty good shot at winning that seat. Something must have spooked Penry; a source tells us that a pro-McInnis 527 was gearing up to go after Penry, who used to work as an aide to McInnis. But the energy behind Penry was palpable, which his VERY early exit a surprise to a lot of folks, particularly here in DC. As for Rell, her poll numbers -- while better than most governors' -- have declined; she isn't as popular as she once was. Indeed, a new Quinnipiac poll has her with a 64% job rating, which (believe it or not) isn't close to the high she once enjoyed in the 70s and 80s. Rell was going to have her first tough campaign as governor and, well, being a governor these days is difficult.

*** Another thing to add to Wednesday's calendar: Tomorrow, on Veterans Day, First Lady Michelle Obama and Dr. Jill Biden will join the national service group ServiceNation to launch its "Mission Serve" initiative, a network of military and civilian service organizations to meet the needs of troops, military families, and veterans. Both Michelle Obama and Jill Biden will deliver remarks at the event, which takes place in DC.

Countdown to MA Special Primary: 28 days
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Countdown to Election Day 2010: 357 days

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The New York Times writes, "Democrats have displayed a striking degree of pragmatism in seeking to push the health care bill through Congress, embracing or rejecting ideological considerations as needed to keep the legislation moving. But if the flexibility shown by party leaders on issues like abortion and the proposed government-run insurance plan has kept the legislative process on track, it has also left many liberals off balance and risked alienating the party's base as the midterm elections approach." 

"President Obama suggested Monday that he was not comfortable with abortion restrictions inserted into the House version of major health care legislation, and he prodded Congress to revise them," the New York Times also notes. "'There needs to be some more work before we get to the point where we're not changing the status quo' on abortion, Mr. Obama said in an interview with ABC News. 'And that's the goal.'"

More: "On the one hand, Mr. Obama said, 'we're not looking to change what is the principle that has been in place for a very long time, which is federal dollars are not used to subsidize abortions.' On the other hand, he said, he wanted to make sure 'we're not restricting women's insurance choices,' because he had promised that 'if you're happy and satisfied with the insurance that you have, it's not going to change.'"   

Bipartisanship? Who needs it, says Democratic strategist Paul Begala. He points to former president Bill Clinton's passage of his 1993 economic plan, which Begala writes was the "first piece of major legislation in modern history to pass without a single vote from the party opposite." Begala compares the Republican predictions made then with those of today, with Dick Armey saying Clinton's bill was a "job killer," and House Minority Leader John Boehner saying the health care bill is "the greatest threat to freedom that I've seen in the 19 years I've been in Washington."

The president and first lady head to Fort Hood today. President Obama will meet with family members of those affected and make remarks. The AP says this "is his time to take on the healer-in-chief role that can help shape a presidency at a time of national tragedy."

Per the San Antonio Express-News, "Plans call for a traditional military memorial, with a prologue, prayers, speeches, a sermon, music, a 'roll call' tribute to the 13 dead, and a rifle salute. The post commander, Lt. Gen. Robert Cone, said at a news conference Monday that he expects up to 5,000 people to attend the event." 

"President Barack Obama is nearing a decision to add tens of thousands more forces to Afghanistan, though probably not quite the 40,000 sought by his top general there," the AP reports. "Administration officials told The Associated Press on Monday the deployment would most probably begin in January with a mission to stiffen the defense of 10 key cities and towns. An Army brigade that had been training for deployment to Iraq that month may be the vanguard."

As we mentioned in First Thoughts, however, the Obama White House disputes this report, noting that the president has yet to make up his mind.

"A survey of troops who served in Iraq and Afghanistan concluded that having gay or lesbian soldiers in fighting units has no significant impact on unit cohesion or readiness. The data raise new doubts about the underlying assumption of the congressional ban, namely that military discipline will fall apart if gays and lesbians are permitted to serve openly… RAND and the University of Florida found that '40 percent of the military members surveyed expressed support for the [current] policy, while 28 percent opposed it and 33 percent were neutral - less support than seen in previous surveys,' according to a release from RAND, which also advises the Pentagon on a host of security matters."

"Senate Democratic leaders expect their long-awaited healthcare bill to hit the chamber floor as early as Monday," The Hill writes. "The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is expected to finish its cost analysis of the Senate bill by the end of this week or early next. Senior aides and senators say Democrats plan to pivot quickly and file the first procedural vote as early as Monday."

"Senate Democratic leaders are still pushing to bring up their health care reform bill next week, even though the gambit comes with risks as they race against the clock to get a measure passed before the end of the year," Roll Call says.

Chuck Schumer predicted it would get done by the end of the year. "Democrats realize that failure is worse for the country -- and worse for us," Schumer said at a Daily News Editorial Board meeting. "I think from the most conservative to the most liberal Democrat, they believe that. The President, in the last month, will be very heavily involved."

Progressive blogger Jane Hamsher fired off this statement regarding the public option: "It was a huge victory that a month after the Public Option was proclaimed dead, it was included in the House bill. We staked out our markers on June 23: that the public option would be available when the plan went into effect, that it would be available nationwide, and that there would no triggers. We got that, against all odds… We expect progressives to live up to their commitment to vote against any bill that does not have a public option, and that means no triggers or opt-outs. If Congress wants to send a bill back to conference that violates the pledge they took, we'll hold them to their commitment to kill it."

In a Newsweek essay, Sen. (and Vietnam vet) John Kerry stresses the need for an alternate strategy to Gen. Stanley McChrystal's recommendation for a large-scale troop increase. He warns of adhering to the same rationale of some Vietnam "revisionists" who believe "we could have won 'if only' Congress had not balked at the military's insatiable hunger for more troops and more bombing… In the case of Afghanistan, politics has reduced a difficult mission in a complex country to a simple, headline-ready 'yes or no' on troop numbers. What we need is a realistic assessment of our strategy, military and civilian combined."

"Prosecutors want a sentence of at least 27 years for a Democrat convicted of accepting more than $400,000 in bribes while in office. A federal court found 18-year Rep. William Jefferson (D-La.) guilty this past August on 11 counts of bribery, racketeering and money-laundering."

The Washington Post gets an interview with Dede Scozzafava. "At her desk, with a fuzzy elephant face down on a bookshelf behind her, she recalled the exhausting end days of her campaign. Violet semicircles hung below her teary eyes as she recounted how Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck and other conservative leaders excoriated her for less-than-orthodox positions on gay rights, abortion and organized labor. Her nose reddened as she recalled her abrupt exit from the special election to replace John M. McHugh, whom President Obama had appointed as secretary of the Army earlier in the year."

More: "The conservative movement's third-party candidate, Doug Hoffman, expected her support but, she said, the newcomer accountant 'had no integrity.' Plus, the Democrats were so nice! They called. They sympathized. They made her feel good about tossing her support to Bill Owens, who -- with her help -- became the area's first Democratic representative in more than a century. 'Oh, someone left chocolates for me!' she said, picking up a present from her aunt and uncle. Her GOP family has been less supportive. And she warns that what happened to her will happen to candidates like her." 

Michael Steele says white Republicans are scared of him, The Hill reports. On Roland Martin's TV One there was this exchange:
MARTIN: But your candidates got to talk to them. One of the criticisms I've always had is Republicans -- white Republicans -- have been scared of black folks.
STEELE: You're absolutely right. I mean I've been in the room and they've been scared of me. I'm like, "I'm on your side" and so I can imagine going out there and talking to someone like you, you know, [say] "I'll listen." And they're like "Well." Let me tell you. You saw in Christie and you saw in McDonnell a door open because they went in and engaged. McDonnell was very deliberate about spending...

The Hill looks at how vulnerable Democrats who voted for and against the health care bill are starting to defend their votes.

CONNECTICUT: "Connecticut Republicans are facing their first contentious battle for a Senate nomination in more than 15 years, but it's not clear whether spending big bucks now ­-- as some candidates are doing -- will help in the long run. With about 1,600 GOP delegates poised to pick the party's nominee at their annual convention in May, this could be one contest in which spending heavily on television ads has diminished returns."

FLORIDA: The Club for Growth's endorsement of Marco Rubio in the Senate GOP primary should help Rubio with fundraising, "but while the club saturated television airwaves in upstate New York with ads leading up to the special election, it's unlikely they'll be able to do the same across a state as large and expensive as Florida," Roll Call argues.

MASSACHUSETTS: "Opening up a major fissure in the US Senate race, Attorney General Martha Coakley said yesterday that she opposes the landmark health care bill approved by the House Saturday because it contains a provision restricting federal funding for abortion," the Boston Globe reports. "Coakley, in her boldest gamble of the campaign, said that fighting for women's access to abortions was more important than passing the overall bill, despite its aim of providing coverage for 36 million people, establishing a public insurance option, and prohibiting insurers from discriminating against patients with preexisting conditions." 

And the Boston Globe editorial page criticizes her for the decision. Coakley, it writes, "should indeed be angry over the provision in the House-approved health-reform bill that denies abortion coverage to the 36 million people who would receive subsidized insurance. But her position that she would have voted against the bill -- thereby possibly denying any coverage to those 36 million people -- is self-defeating."

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Ovide LaMontagne, a Manchester lawyer, has gotten into the Senate race, offering a primary challenge to GOP frontrunner Kelly Ayotte, the state's attorney general. "It is his third bid for public office. He was the Republican nominee for governor in 1996, losing to Democrat Jeanne Shaheen after defeating Rep. Bill Zeliff in a GOP primary. Previously, Lamontagne ran unsuccessfully for the 1st District U.S. House seat in 1992, losing to Zeliff in the primary."

VIRGINIA: Roll Call looks at how two Virginia Democratic freshman congressmen have taken different approaches since being elected in 2008. "Perriello and Nye are taking different tacks in their voting behavior and campaign styles as they prepare to seek re-election against vigorous Republican opposition. Perriello has been more of a populist and risk-taker in his votes and public statements. On closely divided votes, Perriello has sided with his party more frequently than Nye -- even though Perriello's district, located in the mostly rural Southside area of the state, backed Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in the 2008 election and Nye's district, a more geographically compact area in and around Virginia Beach, backed President Barack Obama."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
A campaign source says that up-and-comer Josh Penry decided against a CO-GOV primary challenge against Scott McInnis, his former boss in Congress, because he was scared off, in part, by a 527 that was ramping up for McInnis that was set to go after Penry. He is sitting out the 2010 cycle and is NOT running for CO-3 despite the rumors.

The news of Penry dropping out of the race was first reported by the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza.

The source added that Penry's Name ID, they were seeing, was only about 15% to 20% statewide, and Penry felt that a 527 and a nasty political fight could have ruined or significantly damaged his reputation and hurt his political capital with Republicans. This path helps Penry, who's only 33, build up political capital, the source said. 

The source cites the elections on Tuesday as the turning point for Penry to decide to step aside. He said they demonstrated a need for the GOP to unify around one candidate. Though the source cited specifically the results in New Jersey and Virginia, NY-23 certainly fits that rationale as well.

The source added that the Penry didn't want to split Republican money and then have to run, if he survived the primary, against an entrenched incumbent.

"He'll live to fight another day," the source said of Penry, adding he's "not looking at switching from the governor's race to the third congressional district. ... This allows him to build up enormous political capital for year to come."

Penry told McInnis in person of his decision today.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Moderate Republican Susan Collins (ME) sat with a member of the Senate's GOP leadership team and blasted the Democratic healthcare bills moving through Congress. She also said she's working with a small bipartisan group of moderates to craft a better bill or improve the Senate's version.

"I have concluded that if any of these bills were to pass, healthcare cost would actually increase for many Americans," Colins said in an off-camera briefing with Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander. Later she added, "To me, we should rewrite the whole bill."

In a 10-minute opening statement, Collins launched into a point-by-point critique of the bill. Her chief complaints were that the bills lacked true healthcare delivery reform that will reduce cost; adds billions in new fees and taxes; and will increase insurance premiums.

At the end of her monologue, a reporter asked sarcastically if that meant she'd vote "No" on the Senate bill? After the laughter died down, she said, "That would be correct."

"I still believe we can put together a bipartisan bill that would reduce the number of uninsured, not penalize small business, not drive up the cost of health care and would make a real difference." Collins says she's working to about a half dozens moderates, but would not drop names. "The usual suspects," she said with a grin.

"I think there is considerable unease on both side of the aisle about the impact of these bills," she said. "And as more analysis is done, I believe the concerns will only grow."

From NBC's Bobby Cervantes
Some 41 pro-choice House Democrats have signed on to a letter headed to Speaker Nancy Pelosi's desk that states their intention to vote against a conference committee report if the Stupak-Pitts anti-abortion amendment remains as is, according to a draft of the letter obtained by Greg Sargent.

The amendment, which the House passed by a 240-to-196 vote on Saturday, calmed some conservative anti-abortion Democrats who worried federal funding would be provided for abortions in the Democratic health-care bill that passed late Saturday night.

Video:  Rep. Diana DeGette, D- Colo., explains why she supported the health reform bill, but threatened to block it beacuse of the anti-abortion amendment.

The letter:

As Members of Congress we believe that women should have access to a full range of reproductive health care. Health care reform must not be misused as an opportunity to restrict women's access to reproductive health services.

The Stupak-Pitts amendment to H.R. 3962, The Affordable Healthcare for America Act, represents an unprecedented and unacceptable restriction on women's ability to access the full range of reproductive health services to which they are lawfully entitled. We will not vote for a conference report that contains language that restricts women's right to choose any further than current law.

Many pro-choice Democrats, including Pelosi, made their opposition to the amendment clear during debate on Saturday. But they voted to pass the bill so the process could move along to the Senate, vowing to strip the amendment from any final legislation.

"There's going to be a firestorm here," Rep. Diana DeGette, a pro-choice Colorado Democrat, said. "We're not going to let this into law."

As a working copy of the letter is circulated around to more pro-choice House Democrats today, it's worth noting that if the 41 Democrats who are said to have already signed on follow through with Nay votes, it's enough to kill the bill.