From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Back on the trail: With 15 days until this year's Election Day, and with nearly 400 days until next year's, President Obama will spend much of this week and next week focusing on 2009 and 2010. On Tuesday, he hits a fundraiser for Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate in the special congressional election in New York to replace former Rep. John McHugh (R), who is now serving in the administration. On Wednesday, Obama heads to New Jersey to participate in a rally for incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (Vice President Biden attends his own rally today for Corzine at 1:00 pm ET in Edison, NJ). On Friday, the president appears at separate fundraisers for Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd, both of whom are up for re-election next year and both of whom are extremely vulnerable. Then, next week, Obama will campaign for Creigh Deeds in Virginia. That's at least five campaign/fundraising appearances for the president in the next two weeks. Interestingly, all of this week's appearances are about rallying the Dem base, not swaying independent voters. Corzine is in a three-way race in which he needs Dems only to win; Owens is in a three-way in NY-23, needing just Dems to win; Patrick also is going to be facing a three-way; and then there's Dodd who, in a very blue state, simply needs Dems to rally back to his side.

*** Remember, the force is with you -- or not: Speaking of 2010, Dan Balz sets some smart C.W. for next year's midterms. "Three forces threaten Democrats in the 2010 elections: populist anger on the right, disaffection in the middle and potential disillusionment on the left," Balz wrote. In a way, some of the key races of 2009 provide a glimpse of these issues. We're seeing populist anger on the right rise up in the NY-23 special congressional election; we're seeing disaffection in the middle taking place in Virginia's gubernatorial contest; and we're seeing some limited potential disillusionment on the left in New Jersey, where indie candidate Chris Daggett has gotten the support (for instance) of the Sierra Club.  

*** Shades of '92? But those three forces don't necessarily mean that Republicans will benefit next year. "People are more frightened than they were in '93 and '94," Newt Gingrich told Balz in his piece. "Both by the radicalism of the administration and by the economy." But Newt added, "They're more skeptical of Republicans than they were in '93 and '94. The aftereffect of '06 and '08 is there's not a rush to Republicans." Indeed, 2010 could end up feeling a lot like 1992, when populist anger and public frustration at the deficit spawned the political phenomenon that became Ross Perot, which turned out to benefit Bill Clinton and hurt Bush 41 in that year's presidential contest -- but then benefited Republicans on the House and Senate level. In fact, the REAL beneficiaries in '92 were NEW candidates, reform-minded candidates. That's why Daggett's third-party candidacy in New Jersey is worth watching two weeks from now. Does he end up getting enough of the vote to catapult Corzine to victory, even though the incumbent governor's numbers remain stuck in the high 30s/low 40s? If this happens, Democrats shouldn't take comfort, though: Corzine would have won because disaffected voters opted neither for the Dem nor the Republican -- but instead for the "none of the above" guy (remember Monty Brewster in "Brewster's Millions"?) And in a midterm election, disaffected voters can do three things: stay home, fire the incumbent, or turn to a third party (if available).

*** Tough enough? A narrative that dogged Obama in 2007/2008 -- but which he overcame in winning the Democratic nomination and then the presidency -- is beginning to resurface again: Is he tough enough? In Friday's National Journal, Kirk Victor wrote that "a narrative is emerging among some columnists, pundits, and academics across the political spectrum that Obama's low-key, cool, cerebral style, while reassuring on many levels, lacks the punch that is sometimes needed to advance an agenda in Washington, and in a perilous world." And on Sunday, Maureen Dowd added, "F.D.R. asked to be judged by the enemies he had made. But what of a president who strives to keep everyone in some vague middle ground of satisfaction or dissatisfaction, without ever offending anyone?" This growing narrative is coming mostly from the left. Why? Of course, as Doris Kearns Goodwin would probably remind us, Abraham Lincoln faced similar criticism (many abolitionists and Radical Republicans didn't think Lincoln's opposition to slavery went far enough while president). Then again, when the chips were down, Lincoln was certainly tough (the Emancipation Proclamation, demanding full surrender from the South at the end of the Civil War). 

*** Desperately seeking compromise: Ironically, conservatives are making headway with their supporters by making the case Obama IS tough and radical. So this truly is about those on the left unhappy with the president's addiction to compromise. As we've all witnessed, the president is always in search of the elusive middle ground, whether on health care (public OPTIONAL), Afghanistan (something less than 40,000 more troops?), or the stimulus (lots more in tax cuts than Dems wanted).

*** Howdy, partner: Turning to Afghanistan, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel made some news yesterday, when he said that the Obama administration would postpone any decision to send more combat troops into that country until the disputed election there had been resolved. "'It would be reckless to make a decision on U.S. troop level if, in fact, you haven't done a thorough analysis of whether, in fact, there's an Afghan partner ready to fill that space that the U.S. troops would create and become a true partner in governing the Afghan country," Emanuel said on CNN, per the Washington Post. Meanwhile, a report on the fraud allegations coming from Afghanistan is supposed to be released today. "The results of investigations by the UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) will form the basis of a decision on whether Afghanistan can finally declare a new president or must go to the polls for a second time." And news this morning indicates Karzai is testing out a new campaign theme that could make the president's decision even more difficult: His supporters are calling the election commission report a "foreign interference." If Karzai does NOT accept the results, then what?

*** Drone wars: Staying with Afghanistan, the New Yorker's Jane Mayer has an intriguing piece on the increased predator drone attacks since Obama took office. It's a campaign promise he made, to some controversy, during the primary campaign, by the way. Writes Mayer: "It's easy to understand the appeal of a 'push-button' approach to fighting Al Qaeda, but the embrace of the Predator program has occurred with remarkably little public discussion, given that it represents a radically new and geographically unbounded use of state-sanctioned lethal force. And, because of the C.I.A. program's secrecy, there is no visible system of accountability in place, despite the fact that the agency has killed many civilians inside a politically fragile, nuclear-armed country with which the U.S. is not at war. Should something go wrong in the C.I.A.'s program -- last month, the Air Force lost control of a drone and had to shoot it down over Afghanistan -- it's unclear what the consequences would be."

*** The glass ceiling: In conjunction with the NBC/MSNBC focus this week on women in the workplace and society overall, we here at First Read plan to examine women from various political angles. Today, we take a look today at the last barrier for female U.S. politicians: the presidency. It's not just the fact that there has not been a woman president yet; it's the fact that there have been so few women presidential CANDIDATES. Not only did it take the two major parties 24 years to see a woman make it on a national ticket (1984 to 2008), it's still not obvious any women will be serious candidates in 2012 or 2016. Sure, there's lots of speculation surrounding Sarah Palin and Hillary Clinton. But after them? (There was a dearth of women candidates for president between '84 and '08 as well, with Elizabeth Dole being the only serious candidate and she didn't make it to Iowa). One of the main reasons why we've had so few female presidential possibilities is because not enough women have become governors, which still remains the best stepping stone to the presidency. But this could change after 2010. If Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) wins the Texas governor's race, if Alex Sink (D) wins in Florida, and if Meg Whitman (R) wins in California, that could elevate both into the discussion for 2012 and beyond… By the way, don't miss the "Meet the Press" discussion of Shriver's report.

*** Where things stand: According to Rutgers University's Center for American Women and Politics, there are six female governors (Jan Brewer of AZ, Jodi Rell of CT, Linda Lingle of HI, Jennifer Granholm of MI, Bev Perdue of NC, and Chris Gregoire of WA), 17 women U.S. senators (Lisa Murkowski of AK, Blanche Lincoln of AR, Barbara Boxer of CA, Dianne Feinstein of CA, Mary Landrieu of LA, Susan Collins of ME, Olympia Snowe of ME, Barbara Mikulski of MD, Debbie Stabenow of MI, Amy Klobuchar of MN, Claire McCaskill of MO, Kay Hagan of NC, Jeanne Shaheen of NH, Kirsten Gillibrand of NY, Kay Bailey Hutchison of TX, Patty Murray of WA, and Maria Cantwell of WA), and there are 73 congresswoman. 

*** 2009 watch: Finally, turning to the upcoming gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia, Jon Corzine (not surprisingly) picked up the New York Times' endorsement (Daggett finished "second" in the editorial), while Creigh Deeds (again, not surprisingly) got the Washington Post's nod (though Post went out of its way to give back-handed praise to Bob McDonnell, perhaps a nod to the inevitable?). Meanwhile, McDonnell's campaign touted the endorsement it got from Hampton Roads' Daily Press, which backed Tim Kaine in '05. By the way, was Sunday's Politico piece on the Virginia race and how Deeds to come back really just the first of what could be many pre-bituaries?

Countdown to Election Day 2009: 15 days
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 50 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 92 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 379 days

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OBAMA AGENDA: Watching Karzai
"White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said Sunday that before a decision is made on whether to send more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, the United States must assess the strength and viability of the Afghan government," the Washington Post says. 'It would be reckless to make a decision on U.S. troop level if, in fact, you haven't done a thorough analysis of whether, in fact, there's an Afghan partner ready to fill that space that the U.S. troops would create and become a true partner in governing the Afghan country,' Emanuel said on CNN's 'State of the Union.'"  

This is going to be either a momentous week in Afghanistan's attempt to become a democratic (small d) society -- or a disastrous one. The Wall Street Journal: "Afghan President Hamid Karzai may not accept the results of a vote recount from the summer's general election, officials from his campaign hinted, adding a further twist to the already fraught post-poll political environment. On Sunday, his supporters began demonstrations against 'foreign interference' in the elections."

More: "The demonstrations and Mr. Karzai's reluctance to accept a possible second round add to a tense situation, where Afghan government and Western credibility are at a low point and a resurgent Taliban have extended their reach and influence throughout the country. A number of foreign officials, including U.S. Senator John Kerry and French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, were in Kabul this weekend to meet with all sides and try to come to a solution."

To try and cast the election reports by the U.N. as "foreign interference" is an attempt to take a sledgehammer to the process.

The election report is due to be released by the UN-backed commission today.

White House aides went out on the Sunday shows and expressed outrage over the Wall Street bonuses. "The White House has been taking an increasingly confrontational tone against Wall Street bonuses and lobbying efforts to prevent its broad plan for new financial regulations," The Washington Post writes. "Obama has given at least two high-profile speeches in recent weeks urging the financial industry to stop lobbying Congress not to pass laws that would, among other things, create a new agency to police credit card and mortgage lending. White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel chided Wall Street firms for neglecting their responsibilities 'in the short period of time where they have a level of normalcy because of what the government did to help them.'"

In his weekly Saturday address, President Obama focused on health care and went after insurance companies and cable news. 

Obama advisers said they will still leave most of the health-care work to Congress.

The Washington Post writes that "Obama continues to support the concept of a government-sponsored insurance option, but 'he is not demanding that it is in" the final legislation, Valerie Jarrett, a senior White House adviser, said on NBC's 'Meet the Press.' 'He thinks it's the best possible choice.'" 

"Even though the midterm elections are still a year away, President Barack Obama and the White House have started to unleash the fundraising force of the administration for candidates and campaign committees," The Hill reports. "Though the president and his advisers continue to look for ways to create jobs in a woeful economy, reform healthcare and devise and implement a strategy for the war in Afghanistan, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden are increasingly staying busy working to keep Democrats in office." 

The RNC criticized the president for the increased fundraising efforts, with an e-mail with this headline: "Nothing better to do? With The Country Continuing To Shed Jobs, And The World Awaiting His Decision On Afghanistan, Obama Will Spend Week Barnstorming For Democratic Candidates."

"President Obama will visit FBI headquarters in the Big Apple tomorrow to personally thank agents involved in the arrest of a Denver man who allegedly planned to bomb the city's subways, law-enforcement sources said. Obama will journey to 26 Federal Plaza near City Hall to thank both the G-men and members of the FBI-NYPD joint terrorism task force for their work in the arrest of airport-shuttle driver Najibullah Zazi, 24, the sources told The [New York] Post."

The AP: "Federal drug agents won't pursue pot-smoking patients or their sanctioned suppliers in states that allow medical marijuana, under new legal guidelines to be issued Monday by the Obama administration… The new policy is a significant departure from the Bush administration, which insisted it would continue to enforce federal anti-pot laws regardless of state codes."

The best under-the-radar story of the day: Justice Sonia Sotomayor telling her Yale reunion  classmates that the White House helped decide what suits she should wear during the  confirmation process. Not surprising, but always surprising when someone admits it.

The New York Times takes a look at Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi as they work to pass health-care bills through their respective chambers. "As she pulls together a health care bill, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been exceedingly direct, lawmakers say, asking them explicitly what it will take to win their vote. Across the Rotunda, Senator Harry Reid, the majority leader, is trying a different tack, acting like what one participant in closed-door sessions described as a coach, urging key chairmen not to get bogged down in pride of authorship and to keep their eyes on the legislative ball."

"While they may have different styles and different sets of Democrats to assemble behind separate proposals, Ms. Pelosi and Mr. Reid have an identical goal: passage this year of a major health care overhaul." 

"Senate Republicans, acknowledging they lack the votes to block a health care reform bill outright, have implemented a comprehensive political strategy to delay, define and derail," Roll Call writes, adding: "Republicans are demanding a deceleration of the process and moving to define whatever plan that emerges as a combination of Medicare cuts, tax increases, higher insurance premiums and rising overall costs."

The Washington Post goes behind the scenes at the CBO on how the examine the various health care bills. The nut graph: "Much of what the CBO does is akin to trying to forecast your grocery bill in 10 years. First, it establishes a baseline: Your history of spending $200 a week at Safeway projected into the future with adjustments for inflation and expected demographic trends (i.e., more children, larger pets). Then it factors in proposed policy changes: Say you want to eat only organic and enroll your husband in Jenny Craig. Costs for meat, produce and dairy would go up, but spending on toothpaste and Saran Wrap would be unaffected. Meanwhile, the extra $70 a week for diet food would be partially offset by lower spending on Cheetos and frozen pizza." 

Roland Burris, relevant? The AP lays out the case, first likening him to a "house guest who couldn't be refused, won't soon be leaving and poses a plausible threat of ruining holiday dinner." His stance that he won't compromise on support for a public option "caught the attention of the very Democratic leaders who tried to keep Burris out of the Senate, suggested he resign and have shunned him in unprecedented fashion."

Speaking of the public option, advocates are up with a TV ad on the issue in Nevada asking whether Harry Reid is "strong enough" to push for a public option.

The Boston Globe looks at the role Foreign Relations Chairman Sen. John Kerry's playing in Afghanistan: He "held a prolonged meeting last night with President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan and urged him to agree to a runoff vote or take other steps to end the postelection crisis that has gripped the Afghan government for the past two months." Kerry has been in Kabul since Friday.

"From July to September, the most vulnerable Senate incumbents once again socked away huge sums of money in an attempt to inoculate themselves against tough 2010 election challenges," Roll Call reports. "That group includes Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.), who raised more than $2 million, and fellow Democratic Sens. Blanche Lincoln (Ark.) and Arlen Specter (Pa.), who brought in $1.2 million and $1.8 million, respectively. Targeted Republican incumbents who raised more than $1 million include Sens. David Vitter (La.) and Richard Burr (N.C.)." (Here's the fundraising in chart form.)

Stu Rothenberg on the dangers for House Dems in 2010: "Those at greatest risk represent Republican-leaning or conservative districts, as well as districts where a big turnout for Barack Obama by African-American and younger voters helped Democratic candidates for Congress. The list of Democratic freshmen most affected by the national shift includes Reps. Bobby Bright (Ala.), Walt Minnick (Idaho), Frank Kratovil (Md.), Travis Childers (Miss.), Harry Teague (N.M.), Steve Driehaus (Ohio), Mary Jo Kilroy (Ohio) and Tom Perriello (Va.)… If House losses in the 2010 elections are limited to the districts already mentioned, some Democratic insiders will breathe a huge sigh of relief, since net Democratic losses would be only in the eight- to 15-seat range. That would mean the political environment didn't drown plenty of Democrats in potentially dangerous districts."

NEW JERSEY: Politics Daily suggests that with Creigh Deeds further behind than Corzine, the White House is more eager to give its support to the New Jersey candidate. "When it comes to deploying Air Force One and turning on the White House political machine on behalf of candidates like Corzine, incumbent presidents behave exactly like bankers who only lend their umbrellas when the sun is shining."   

A week after the Star-Ledger endorsed independent candidate Chris Daggett for governor, four more newspapers have given their endorsements. Corzine was endorsed by the New York Times and Philadelphia Inquirer, and Christie won the support of much smaller local papers, East Brunswick's Home News Tribune and Bridgewater's Courier News. The New York Times: "A New York Times poll completed last week captured the way New Jersey voters have been grumbling about all their choices for governor. But Jon Corzine, who is slightly ahead among likely voters, is a decent man with a laudable set of goals for his state." The Home News Tribune: "If voters genuinely want to change the reckless, unethical culture of Trenton, Daggett's not the way to go. And another four years of Corzine certainly won't do it. Chris Christie should be the clear choice as the only candidate exhibiting the courage to meaningfully talk about what the state can't afford." 

CQ Politics changes its race ratings, from Toss-up to Leans Republican. "Can Republican Chris Christie survive millions more dollars in negative advertising run against him? Can a visit from President Obama help turn out Democratic voters for incumbent Jon Corzine? Will independent Chris Daggett earn a double-digit vote share on Election Day, or will his support fade away?" CQ also cites the higher level of Republican voter enthusiasm as a factor that may give Christie the edge on Nov. 3.

NEW YORK: In his first appearance on the campaign trail with Mayor Bloomberg, Rudy Giuliani yesterday warned Orthodox Jews in Brooklyn that the city's frightening, crime-ridden days could swiftly return if they don't come out to vote and give the mayor a third term," The New York Post writes, adding Giuliani's words and reactions to them: "'I worried daily that the city might be turned back to the way it was before 1993 -- and you know exactly what I'm talking about," he told the Boro Park Jewish Community Council. This community remembers the fears, the worries and the crimes -- and the great fear of going out at night and walking the streets.' City Councilman Bill de Blasio, who backs Democratic mayoral candidate Bill Thompson, accused Giuliani of 'veiled race baiting' for suggesting a black mayor wouldn't be tough on crime."

VIRGINIA: Bob McDonnell finished the month of September with $4.5 million  in his war chest, compared with almost $2.8 million for Deeds, the Roanoke Times reports. That brings the nominees' respective totals to $17.4 and $13.2 million.  
 
Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, who accused Republicans of a smear campaign when they "dredged up his old writings during his 2006 senatorial campaign," says that in the Virginia gubernatorial election, turning to Bob McDonnell's controversial master's thesis is fair game. Said Webb: "What McDonnell wrote was essentially a political manifesto that he wrote two years before running for office. It's directly relevant to what his philosophy is in terms of governance."

Former Democratic Virginia gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe and Republican strategist Karl Rove made a $5 bet that their respective candidates would win in both governor's races next month. 

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Ali Weinberg
When he's not dealing with the fallout of his affair with an Argentine woman, South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford apparently is passing legislation to establish electronic medical records in his state, which will, according to a release from his office, "improve patient care and reduce duplicative tests by allowing doctors, hospitals and healthcare providers to share up-to-the-minute electronic patient information."

"We believe health information exchagnes and electronic records can indeed improve healthcare outcomes by increasing efficiency, streamlining information and instilling a sense of accountability into a system that too often remains fragmented and overwhelmed by red tape," Gov. Sanford is quoted as saying.

from NBC's Ali Weinberg
The U.S. government's budget deficit for Fiscal Year 2009 increased to a record $1.42 trillion, which according to Bloomberg is the deepest recession since the 1930s. The State Department attributed the majority of the deficit to the previous administration of George W. Bush.

"The FY2009 deficit was largely the product of the spending and tax policies inherited from the previous Administration, exacerbated by a severe recession and financial crisis that were underway as the current Administration took office," a Treasury Department press release said.

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner seemed sanguine about the report, citing a lower deficit than expected.

"This year's deficit is lower than we had projected earlier this year, in part because we are managing to repair the financial system at a lower cost to taxpayers," Geithner is quoted as saying.

Office of Management and Budget director Peter Orszag noted the administration's efforts in the coming fiscal year to stabilize the economy, but did not get into specifics.

"As we move from rescue to recovery, the President recognizes that we need to put the nation back on a fiscally sustainable path.  As part of the FY 2011 budget policy process, we are considering proposals to put our country back on firm fiscal footing," Orszag said in the release.

from NBC's Mark Murray
A day after President Obama visited the New Orleans, the city's mayor Ray Nagin left for Cuba today to discuss hurricane preparedness with the country's leaders.

According to the Times-Picayune, the press release announcing the trip was scant on details like how much it will cost or who is paying for it. But it did say that Nagin and a delegation of city and state officials will meet with the Latin American Center for Disaster Medicine and learn about the way Cuba's defense officials prepare for disaster.

Nagin's office also said that he is the first New Orleans mayor to make an official visit to the country in 50 years, after an initial report said that Nagin would be the first U.S. mayor to visit in that time.

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
President Obama yesterday pushed back on recent claims that his administration lacks accomplishments, framing health care reform as the latest in a series of legislative challenges Democrats have tackled. He also denied that Democratic leaders, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who also attended the event, are discouraged by the opposition they've faced from both sides of the aisle.
 
Of his legislative achievements thus far, Obama said, "We ended up making sure that stem cell research was possible so that it could save lives and cure debilitating diseases. Then we said, you know, it makes sense for us to make sure that women are paid the same for the same work, and we signed the Lilly Ledbetter act," legislation passed on the first day of his administration.
 
"And we gave insurance to 11 million children who had been left out of the Children's Health Insurance Program," Obama said, adding that he and congressional Democrats had also "moved forward" on ending the war in Iraq, closing the Guantanamo Bay prison and banning torture. 
 
"If we stopped today, this legislative session would have been one of the most productive in a generation -- if we just stopped. But we didn't want to stop," he added.
 
"So I hope that all of you guys understand, we're just getting started. See, some of our opponents, they seem to think that they could wear us down. And I just want everybody to be clear, I'm not tired, I'm refreshed," Obama said.
 
Obama defended Pelosi while referring to the resistence his agenda has been met with on both sides of the aisle, saying, "there's been a sense...that we are going to slash and burn and go after folks just because we want to win, as opposed to because we're trying to get something done. And as a consequence, being Speaker of the House is challenging job. You are constantly the target of attacks. And then there's the other party."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg and Kelly Paice
*** Bushed: The president's appearance today with President George H. W. Bush in College Station, TX, should be nothing but a PR winner. Anytime we see our presidents interacting on a bipartisan basis, it's usually a positive. Today's appearance with Bush 41 is also an opportunity to do ridiculous presidential comparisons. (Ok, so they aren't ridiculous but it's Friday, cut us some slack). President Obama has been compared favorably and unfavorably to Carter and Reagan recently. His critics want to turn him into Carter for obvious reasons; his proponents believe he's following a similar trajectory as Reagan (after all, Reagan dealt with early unemployment, a midterm election defeat before winning re-election in a landslide). But one president that Obama doesn't get comparisons with but should might be Bush 41. Sure, they are from opposite parties but on foreign policy, for instance, there are a lot of similarities (maybe that's why Bush 41 NSA Scowcroft frequently praises Obama national security decisions). But there's another part of Bush 41 that gets ignored too often (mostly because of his son, 43) and that's his pragmatic side. Bush 41 was a system guy, whether it was working with Congress or simply playing the Washington game, he set up his White House to be cooperative, not combative. Obama has shown similar traits. On one hand, it's a recipe for getting things down in Washington, on the other hand, it's also way to look TOO Washington and end up being out of touch, the exact issues that made Bush 41 a one-term president. Just something to (over)think about on this Friday.

*** What's The Holdup? When it comes to announcing a new strategy for Afghanistan, it appears something is slowing down the process. That something appears to be the disputed election in that country. Revelations that Afghan President Hamid Karzai actually received less than half of the national vote has mixed implications for the Obama administration. A runoff election between Karzai and his closest competitor would grant the winner at least a chance to appear legitimate. Then again, no one can be sure fraud won't be rampant again, or that a runoff so soon after the first election is even feasible -- because of the brutal Afghan winters, an election would either have to be held in November, or not until spring, and the latter option is "a recipe for disaster," Karzai's ambassador in D.C. told the Washington Post this week. Besides the internal problems a November runoff would pose, there's the consequences to America's military strategy: Obama has put off making a decision partly because he wanted to wait for the final election results--now, however, he runs the risk of announcing a new direction with no clear winner in power. The Obama administration has advocated for a fair and complete investigation into the Afghan elections, but the current results bring truth to the phrase "be careful what you wish for."

*** Campaigner-in-Chief: As if it wasn't obvious, the president's appearance next week with Jon Corzine only underscores the White House's belief that of the two BIG gubernatorial races this year, they think they have a much better shot in New Jersey. In fact, consider the fact that there is no actual date circled on the calendar yet for the president to stump in Virginia for Creigh Deeds. Granted, the Corzine path to victory is all about motivating the base and the president is a good tool for that. Corzine might need just 42-45% to win. Deeds has all sorts of problems, both with the Democratic base and the middle. Can the president pull him over the finish line? Probably not and that may be why the White House has yet to agree to a stumping date for Deeds. There's a path for Deeds to get to 45-48% by getting the Democratic base engaged (which is what you use the president to do). What's not clear is whether there's a path to 50+1 anymore for Deeds.

*** How To Save A Job (And A Stimulus Perception?): At a police training center in St. Louis yesterday, Vice President Biden touted the impacts of the federal stimulus package, citing 50 police officer jobs that were saved or created using $8 million from the fund. "Are we home yet? No, we are not," he said, but added that without the $787 billion stimulus plan, a million more jobs would have been lost since January." Read that Biden sentence again; it's no wonder the administration is having such a tough time proving, well, a less negative. Never mind a new report the GOP is making hay out of which indicates the stimulus, to date, has only directly created or saved 30,083 jobs. Selling the stimulus has proven to be one of the most difficult tasks this administration has taken on. One wonders if the public will ever turn positive on the stimulus (even if economists continue to praise it) given the bleak job outlook for the foreseeable future. Does that mean the administration should give up trying to change the perception of it? Probably not but at some point one wonders if there are diminishing returns for Biden's efforts.

*** Stray Thoughts Friday: Speaker Pelosi is making an interesting pitch to her more conservative House Democrats: help me pass a more robust public option in the House so that the compromise with the Senate is something closer to what you would want. Her thinking is if she passes something that passes muster with the Blue Dogs BEFORE the House bill gets merged with the Senate, then her leverage on the issue is even less. ... Is it good news or bad news that a LARGE majority of Jersey voters tell the New York Times that Obama's endorsement of Corzine makes "no difference." ... Is there anything sillier than politician sports bets? (oh, wait, no...longer...have...the...high...ground...on THIS fun critique anymore!) In all seriousness, take a closer look at the charities involved in the "Goatee Gamble" (scroll down).

As Islamic militants launched internal coordinated attacks in Pakistan's second-largest city, Lahore, President Obama signed into law a $7.5 billion aid bill while the country's military criticized the bill as interfering with its internal affairs, the AP writes. The bill was signed only after senior American lawmakers assured Pakistan's foreign minister that it is not "an attempt to micromanage operations" by the country's military. Two lawmakers who helped write the bill, Senator John Kerry (D-MA) and Representative Howard Berman (D-CA) provided an "unusual" statement with the bill, which said, "any interpretation of this act which suggests that the United States does not fully recognize and respect the sovereignty of Pakistan would be directly contrary to congressional intent."

With the legitimacy of Afghanistan's recent elections in question -- and as the White House debates their war strategy there -- the country could hold a run-off election as soon as next month, reports the Wall Street Journal.

Karzai's share of the vote has shrunk to just 47% of the vote. "The tally by the U.N.-backed Electoral Complaints Commission, which one official called 'stunning,' is due to be finalized Friday. Preliminary results by Afghanistan's Independent Election Commission had given Karzai 54.6 percent of the Aug. 20 vote," notes the Washington Post. "The findings have major implications for the Obama administration's ongoing deliberations over Afghanistan war strategy and could eventually help remove the cloud of illegitimacy hanging over its partner government there. But a new election could also make a difficult situation worse, particularly if fraud is once again alleged or if the vote has to be delayed because of the onset of winter."

A proposal by Sen. Carl Levin to send several thousand additional troops to Afghanistan to speed the training of security forces there is gaining traction within the Administration, per the Wall Street Journal. "The proposal could also give the administration a face-saving way to reject Gen. Stanley McChrystal's call for 40,000 new troops and instead choose to send a comparatively small contingent of American reinforcements to Afghanistan."

Underscoring the deficiencies in Afghan troops and resources, American officials say that "three intelligence reports warned that Taliban insurgents were planning an attack just days before this month's raid on two remote military outposts in eastern Afghanistan that killed eight U.S. soldiers, but the reports were dismissed," The Washington Times reports. Retired General Paul E. Vallely said the outposts should have been staffed with more Afghan troops, and a draft U.S. military report states that the troops at one of the outposts "did not have enough surveillance drones in use to detect preparations for the attack."

And you thought paying over two bucks a gallon was a lot for gas... "The Pentagon pays an average of $400 to put a gallon of fuel into a combat vehicle or aircraft in Afghanistan," reports The Hill. "The statistic is likely to play into the escalating debate in Congress over the cost of a war that entered its ninth year last week."

Five freshman Republicans, four of whom served in the military before being elected, spoke out in favor of General McChrystal's troop increase recommendation yesterday.

The administration is facing pressure to rewrite a 2007 National Intelligence Assessment which stated that Iran was backing off its nuclear intentions, reports the Wall Street Journal. "Rewriting an NIE is a major undertaking because it is the most comprehensive of U.S. intelligence reports and reflects the combined judgment of all 16 American intelligence bodies... So far, intelligence officials are not 'ready to declare that invalid,' a senior U.S. intelligence official said, emphasizing that the judgment covered the 2003-2007 time frame only. That leaves room for a reassessment of the period since the December 2007 report was completed, the official suggested."

More: "A shift in the U.S. intelligence community's official stance -- concluding Iran restarted its nuclear weapons work or that Iran's ambitions have ramped up -- could significantly affect President Barack Obama's efforts to use diplomacy to contain Tehran's capabilities."

Senate Democrats are exploring ways to increase the number of people covered under the Baucus plan, but can they do it without adding to the deficit? "According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the bill would ensure that 94% of non-elderly Americans are covered by health insurance in 2019, up from 83% in 2010.  Senate Democrats may add to subsidies for lower-income families to push that percentage to 95% or 96%, people familiar with the discussions said. If more people sign up for insurance, fewer would face the penalties that the bill proposes for those who choose to go without coverage."

With the health care bill at a "critical juncture" as it emerged from the Senate Finance Committee this week, the AMA's support of the bill is up in the air more now than ever, says the Washington Post. The crux of the problem? "The AMA's wobbly support of the moment is rooted in its recent effort to find common ground among the increasingly splintered interests of the nation's 800,000 physicians, whose loyalty to organized medicine has ebbed for decades. It stems, too, from differences in how the several bills before Congress deal with a matter of paramount importance to many doctors: the amount the government pays them to treat older Americans."

Pelosi and other Democrats are getting tough on insurers as they continue to block efforts at health care reform.

The House Speaker is also continuing her push for the public option -- telling members she'll start asking them soon to state whether they'll support one at all. "The nose-counting effort will involve the Democratic whip operation, the Congressional Progressive Caucus and Pelosi herself, according to members who attended the Democrats' closed-door caucus meeting Thursday. Once she has a better idea, Pelosi can decide on which public option to include and then bring the healthcare legislation to the House floor for a final debate."

Despite Democrats' insistence that insurance companies not deny coverage based on preexisting conditions, "wellness incentives" that employers enact could be a sizeable loophole. Already, some companies are, for example, offering lower premiums to workers who complete personal health assessments and limiting coverage for smokers, the Washington Post reports.

The Washington Post describes Obama's attitude as feisty yesterday.

The Wall Street Journal looks at how the president used the opportunity to tout his stimulus and government spending plans all while facing questions from New Orleans' residents about why more of that money is not being spent on them.

"While visiting the University of New Orleans for the town hall, Obama made slight but unmistakable attempts to compare his administration's efforts to those of President George W. Bush's administration."

A "poignant moment" during President Obama's town hall meeting occurred when a nine-year-old boy asked the president "why do people hate you?" To which Obama responded: When things are going tough, then, you know, you're going to get some of the blame, and that's part of the job. But, you know, I'm a pretty tough guy." 

The Economist and YouGov release a new poll finding President Obama's 52% approval rating "his best since July," and his 39% disapproval the lowest in months. The poll also gauged Congressional approval ratings, finding it at 14%-60%.

The president is getting pushback from liberal activists who criticize the slow pace of his judicial appointments, the Washington Post reports. In the same period that President Bush had nominated 95 judges, Obama has sent forward 23; and only 3 of those have been confirmed, largely due to Republicans employing delay maneuvers. "Some Democrats attribute that GOP success partly to the administration's reluctance to fight, arguing that Obama's emphasis on easing partisan rancor over judgeships has backfired and only emboldened Senate Republicans.

New data shows that the economic stimulus plan created -- get ready for it -- just over 30,000 jobs and has Republicans criticizing the stimulus as a failure. "The White House defended the partial data, which included jobs saved or created from contracts that made up just 5 percent of the $339 billion in stimulus funds spent through September.
Though White House economists stressed that the data was incomplete, they still used it to argue that 1.2 million jobs had been either saved or created by the stimulus through September."

In a speech yesterday, Tim Geithner warned that the government should be careful not to withdraw stimulus support too soon and that growth will be slower than expected.

The Washington Post examines yesterday's big financial news -- that banks are raking in big profits. "The results have undercut conventional wisdom that the prosperity of banks depends on the prosperity of their customers. Generally, bank profits lag behind economic recoveries as banks wait for people and businesses to start borrowing again. But the federal government has reversed that relationship by investing more than $1 trillion in its efforts to prop up financial markets, seeking to revive the banks as a means of reviving the economy."

Sarah Palin's memoir, due for release next month, is expected to be a huge success - and some predict could not only give a shot in the arm to her political career but the book business as well.

First Read dubbed Lindsey Graham the new John McCain earlier this week. The Hill makes the same observation.

The Wall Street Journal looks at how tea party activists are complicating the chances of some Republican candidates who have been hand picked by the GOP.

New Jersey: O Ye of Little Faith: A New York Times poll finds that New Jerseyans don't have faith in either major-party candidates, Democratic Governor Jon Corzine or Republican Chris Christie. Among likely voters, Corzine has a 40%-37% lead on Christie, but "With the two campaigns slinging mud but inspiring scant hope, and an independent candidate, Christopher J. Daggett, seen as having little chance of victory, New Jerseyans are more supportive of the devil they know than the devil they don't, according to the poll."

New Jersey's independent gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett has played the role of game-changer in this race - but can he pull off a win? The Philadelphia Inquirer's Carl Golden writes, "Initially dismissed as a gadfly on an ego trip, Daggett has emerged as a significant - and potentially deciding - factor in the New Jersey race." In fact, Daggett's opponents, Gov. Jon Corzine (D) and Chris Christie (R), are starting to take Daggett's candidacy serious and reportedly have their researchers scoping out anything potentially damaging to Daggett's campaign, Golden writes. Although Christie "flippantly described the Daggett campaign as an 'amusement,'" Golden reports that Daggett was the only candidate bold enough to put out a property-tax relief plan, and one that actually got a lot of favorable feedback. Despite Daggett's increasing popularity and bold campaign moves, Golden draws the conclusion that it's very unlikely that Daggett can pull off a victory.

The three candidates vying for the New Jersey governor's seat released their tax returns yesterday, and independent Chris Daggett looks like "the closest thing to an average New Jersey taxpayer," the New Jersey Star-Ledger reports. The multimillionaire Democratic nominee Gov. Jon Corzine reported a $3.13 million loss, while Republican challenger Chris Christie and his wife earned $446,854 last year. Compared to the major-party candidates, yes, Daggett falls a little behind with his tax returns showing he and his wife making $287,240 last year. Despite his earnings trailing the other candidates, Daggett still is raking in a lot more dough than the state's $66,509 household average, the Star-Ledger writes.

Supporters of both major-party candidates in the New Jersey gubernatorial race have reached out to New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to get involved in the race and offer his endorsement to one of them - and possibly some cash, too, Politico reports. The one candidate who would gain the most from support of such a regional figure would be independent Chris Daggett. Politico writes that when asked if Bloomberg would consider coming out for Daggett, the mayor's adviser said: "Nothing ruled in or out."

Virginia: In Virginia's gubernatorial race, Republican nominee Bob McDonnell has more cash on hand - $1.8 million more, to be exact - than his Democratic challenger Creigh Deeds, which "provides McDonnell a significant advantage for the campaign's final sprint," the Washington Post reports. Finance reports due yesterday show that McDonnell began this month with $4.5 million to spend before Election Day, compared with Deeds' $2.7 million; both candidates, however, raised more cash last month than either of them had raised in previous months, the Post writes. And the Post was quick to point out, "Money doesn't guarantee electoral success," though the polls show it's leaning that way in this race.

NY-23: The Syracuse Post-Standard reports that today Republican Dede Scozzafava will pick up the weighty endorsement of Republican Newt Gingrich in NY-23's special election. "The special election for the 23rd Congressional District is an important test leading up to the mid-term 2010 elections," Gingrich said in a statement to supporters, the Post-Standard reports. He added, "Our best chance to put responsible and principled leaders in Washington starts here, with Dede Scozzafava." This proves to be a very important catch for the Republican candidate, as her Conservative Party challenger Doug Hoffman could potentially hurt her base of conservative voters. However, a Siena Research Institute poll released yesterday shows Democratic challenger Bill Owens edging out both conservative candidates with 33 percent of likely voters to Scozzafava's 29 and Hoffman's 23 percent.

FLORIDA: State Senator Ted Deutch (D) announced his intent to run in a special election for Representative Robert Wexler's House seat, after the congressman announced yesterday he would resign the seat in January.

CONNECTICUT: Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), running for Sen. Arlen Specter's seat, will get endorsed Monday by Ned Lamont, the former victor over Joe Lieberman in Connecticut's Senate race, who later lost to the incumbent when he switched parties.

DELAWARE: Rep. Mike Castle (R) and Attorney General Beau Biden (D) are neck-and-neck in a potential Senate race matchup, 46% to 45%, a new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll finds.

NEVADA: Harry Reid will begin airing campaign commercials in Nevada today, coinciding with Vice President Biden's visit to the state and appearance with Reid at a fundraiser today. Reid is trailing in polls to two relatively unknown Republican candidates, former state party chairman Sue Lowden and real estate developer Danny Tarkanian.

NYC MAYOR: City Comptroller Bill Thompson (D) yesterday said one way to reduce New York's $5 billion deficit would be to hit up "a friend in Washington." He suggested working with President as one way to reduce the budget, as well as rooting out waste in each city agency and re-instating the commuter tax, which Mayor Michael Bloomberg called "pie-in-the-sky" thinking.

Presidential candidate... Mike Pence? His travel schedule is raising eyebrows, writes The Hill. Pence has traveled to Iowa but also made a quiet trip to South Carolina where he met with party activists this week.

Should NBC's Chuck Todd and ABC's Jake Tapper decide not to grow or shave their facial hair (depending on whose team loses the National League Champion Series, Chuck's Dodgers or Jake's Phillies) they've decided that the loser will donate to the winner's charity of choice:

Chuck has chosen Samaritan Inns, which provides housing and recovery services to homeless and addicted men and women. Samaritan Inns' Recovery Continuum Program has proven results in its unique holistic approach to recovery treatment providing structured housing and healing services in an environment of support and accountability giving homeless and addicted men and women the opportunity to rebuild their lives. A secure donation can be made on their website.

Jake has picked Dr. Shershah Syed, an OB/GYN who has devoted himself to saving impoverished women in his native Pakistan from complications due to pregnancy such as fistulas. Syed is building a new maternity hospital and training midwives. Tax-deductible contributions can be made through Dr. Shershah Syed, c/o National Health Forum, P.O. BOX 240093, St. Louis, MO 63024. Put: "Dr. Syed's project" in the subject line of the check. The phone number is 314-255-7409; email is nationalhealthforum@gmail.com. You can read about Syed's work in this July column by Nicholas Kristof.

from NBC's Kelly Paice and Ali Weinberg
The national commander of the Veterans of Foreign Wars has called for President Obama to heed the recommendations of the top military commander in Afghanistan, suggesting delay may be hurting troops and the nation's defense.
 
Thomas J. Tradewell Sr., a Vietnam veteran, criticized officials who have spoken out against a troop increase, saying those decisions should be left up to the commanders in the field.

While he did not name them, Vice President Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats including Nancy Pelosi, Carl Levin and David Obey have all expressed reservations about McChrystal's plan.

"President Obama identified Afghanistan as a counterinsurgency operation requiring appropriate planning, which means our commanders are the experts in this regard, not our politicians," Tradewell wrote in a statement.

Tradewall also called on the president to make a timely decision to avoid empowering insurgent forces there: "In Afghanistan, the extremists are sensing weakness and indecision within the U.S. government, which plays into their hands, as evidenced by the increased attacks in Afghanistan as well as Pakistan. I fear that an emboldened enemy will now intensify their efforts to kill more U.S. soldiers."

Time is not a luxury when our magnificent men and women in uniform are in harm's way," Tradewell concluded.

from NBC's Ali Weinberg
What started as a challenge over Twitter has escalated into a full-on follicle faceoff between NBC's Chuck Todd and his ABC counterpart Jake Tapper.

Here's the deal: Jake wagered Chuck that if the Philadelphia Phillies win the National League Championship, Todd must shave his goatee, and if the L.A. Dodgers win, Tapper must grow one.

Should both decide to keep their look, however, there is a consolation, as the loser will donate to the charity of the winner's choice. Chuck has chosen Samaritan Inns, which provides housing and recovery services to homeless and addicted men and women. A secure donation can be made on their website, at http://www.samaritaninns.org/

Jake has picked Dr. Shershah Syed, an ob/gyn who has devoted himself to saving impoverished women in his native Pakistan. His charitable work can be supported through nationalhealthforum@gmail.com or at P.O. BOX 240093, St. Louis, MO 63024. The phone number is 314-255-7409.

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Ali Weinberg
A scandal that once looked like it could take down a president, but soon fizzled for lack of hard evidence, gets a closer look in a new book, "Rendezvous With Destiny: Ronald Reagan and the Campaign that Changed America," by Craig Shirley. While the mystery of 1983's "debategate" remains unsolved, Shirley's new book sheds new light on the scandal, in which Ronald Reagan staffers stole the briefing books President Carter was using to prepare for a 1980 debate with candidate Reagan.

The web of evidence Shirley weaves--which Politico excerpts today--all leads to one man: the late Paul Corbin, whom Shirley describes as "a political troublemaker par excellence."

Corbin was a Kennedy loyalist who defected to the Reagan campaign after developing a hatred for the 1980 Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter. Corbin met several times with campaign manager Bill Casey at the Reagan-Bush headquarters in Arlington, VA. Shirley writes of the chain of events surrounding the heist: "On Oct. 25, Corbin signed in at 9:35 a.m., gave his destination as "Casey" and picked up a check for $1,500. It was just three days before the big debate between Reagan and Carter.

On Nov. 3, the day before the election, Corbin picked up a second and final check from the Reagan campaign, this time in the amount of $1,360. He also spent nearly two hours meeting with Casey."

Carter's briefing books had been assembled and copied in the White House between the night of Oct. 23 and morning of the 24th. "Copies of the briefing books arrived at the Reagan campaign's headquarters not long thereafter," Shirley writes.

Corbin never admitted his masterminding the plan under oath, but sources later came forward and independently labeled him the culprit.

Shirley concludes his piece: "Although the FBI found both Jim Baker's and David Gergen's fingerprints on the briefing books, they found none of Corbin's.

Corbin was too smart to make that dumb mistake. After all, how many Washington political operators had a downtown office with an unlisted phone number?"

from NBC's Bobby Cervantes
Sen. Joe Lieberman (I/D-CT) today deflected questions about his potential leadership role in the Senate's attempt to overturn the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy, saying only that he is in discussions with the White House and gay rights groups.

After a hearing on the Domestic Partner Benefits and Obligations Act, which would allow gay federal employees to extend their benefits to their partners, Lieberman stressed the importance of garnering support for the repeal from Senate Republicans and having support within the military.

"It might not be my decision, but I just would want to make sure that we go about this in the most effective way that builds the highest probability of success," the Connecticut Independent said, according to The Advocate.

While the White House is hesitant to make a timeline on the repeal, it has signaled its search for senators willing to co-sponsor repeal legislation.

After President Obama spoke to the Human Rights Campaign's annual dinner on Saturday, it was reported that John Berry, director of the Office of Personnel Management and the administration's highest-serving gay official, was in talks with Lieberman about becoming the White House's point man in the Senate.

The House's version of repeal legislation, which was introduced last March, is sponsored by Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-PA), the first Iraq war veteran elected to Congress. Murphy, who has lined up some 176 co-sponsors, has said he expects DADT repeal legislation to hit the president's desk early next year.