From NBC's Chuck Todd
As first reported by the Watertown Daily Times, the Republican nominee in the New York 23rd Congressional special election, Dede Scozzafava, announced this morning she's suspending her campaign. Her exit leaves Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, who had garnered plenty of national GOP support, as the favorite to win what was a hotly-contested 3-way race. Republicans had feared that Hoffman and Scozzafava would split the Republican vote in this somewhat competitive district and hand the seat to Democrat Bill Owens. Former Republican Congressman John McHugh resigned his seat earlier this year after he was named by Pres. Obama to be the Secretary of the Army.

Video: Scozzafava was under relentless attack from some members of her own party, including former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

Democrats haven't held this seat since the 19th century but Obama did carry the 23rd District during the 2008 campaign. Local GOP leaders had named the more moderate Scozzafava the nominee over Hoffman as the makeup of the district led plenty of GOP strategists to believe they needed a moderate to carry the district. Hoffman decided to run as a Conservative Party candidate, something allowed in New York State, and national groups, like Club for Growth, weighed in big time.

Hoffman's rise has been thanks to a combination of conservatives and independents who apparently have been attracted by Hoffman's anti-Washington and anti-party establishment message. It's still an open question among some Republicans about whether Hoffman could have been as successful as the actual Republican nominee; running as an outsider has been a BIG benefit to his bid.

Democrats have spent over a million dollars on Owens' behalf but, of late, have been busy reminding reporters of the district's long Republican history. VP Biden is due in the district Monday in an attempt to rally the Democratic base but the math may change a tad now with Scozzafava's exit.

From NBC's Chuck Todd
House Democrats are trying to fight back against Republicans on the "numbers" front when it comes to their just released health care bill. As many folks know, the cost per page and the number of  pages have been used as sledgehammers by Republicans to hit the bill.

So House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn's office passes along this numerical breakdown:

-- It has been 80 days from when the House bill was first introduced. The public has been able to view the bill and extensive information about it online the entire time.

-- It has been 126 days since the House discussion draft was first made available online.

-- There have been 100 hearings on health reform in the past two years, including 8 since the discussion draft was released.

-- There have been over 81 hours of Committee markups on the bill, over 86 hours of hearings, and over 203 hours of Democratic Caucuses.

-- Republicans have had ample opportunity to debate the bill and offer amendments – and they have. During the markups, 129 amendments were offered by Republicans and 23 were passed.

-- Democrats have promised that the reintroduced bill will be publicly available for 72 hours before the House votes.

-- Democrats have held roughly 3,000 public events on health reform this year, including almost 2,000 between August and now.

It does say a lot about this health care debate that the back-n-forth in the House right now isn't about policy but about everything BUT.

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Jim Miklaszewski
Pres. Obama met today with the Joint Chiefs of Staff for just the second time since taking office. The president grilled the commanders on strategy and troop requests for Afghanistan during the nearly three hour meeting, but no final decision were made, according to both senior White House and Pentagon officials

In fact, the president has asked the Joint Chiefs to come back to the White House possibly as early as next week to present him with more options. The president is not happy with the choices that he has in front of him, which include Gen. Stanley McCrystal's request for approximately 40,000 more troops. So in the last few weeks, the White House asked the Pentagon to draw up more plans and when ready have the Joint Chiefs present the options formally to the president at the next meeting.

While nothing has been ruled out, the fact the president is asking for more options than what was already on the table, including the 40,000 troop request, is a strong sign that whatever number the president approves, it will likely be less than than 40,000 number. In fact, sources tell NBC News that at least one commander in the meeting today told the president there was a concern that the military was a bit stretched, something that may have had a big impact on the Commander in Chief.

As for timing, it's ALSO looking less likely the president will make a decision (let alone ANNOUNCE a decision) before he leaves for Asia on Nov. 11, a self-imposed soft deadline the White House had hoped to meet.

THE WEEK AHEAD: If it's Tuesday... We preview Election Day in NJ, VA and NY-23. What does it all mean? ... Plus, a special uninvited guest.

From NBC's Pete Williams
Though the Obama administration calls the federal Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA)  discriminatory, the Justice Department nonetheless is defending the law in a court filing today in Massachusetts.

The state has challenged the law, which denies federal marriage benefits to same-sex couples who are nonetheless legally married under state law.  Massachusetts officials say the federal law requires them to disregard legally valid marriages in carrying out federal Medicaid and Veterans' benefits programs. Such a requirement, they say, violates state sovereignty and is unconstitutional.

"This administration does not support DOMA as a matter of policy, believes that it is discriminatory, and supports its repeal," the Justice Department says in today's filing.

Even so, the government says, it has "long followed the practice of defending federal statutes as long as reasonable arguments can be made in support of their constitutionality, even if the Department disagrees with a particular statute, as it does here."

DOMA doesn't regulate marriage, the government says, because states remain free to decide for themselves whether a same-sex couple can marry and how to spend state money on programs for married couples. But Congress had a logical reason for restricting federal benefits to marriages between men and women.

"Congress may subsequently decide to extend federal benefits to same-sex marriages, and this Administration believes that Congress should do so. But its decision not to do so at this point is not irrational or unconstitutional," today's filing argues.

From NBC's Mark Murray
The liberal group Health Care for America Now (HCAN) has a new Web video that combines the health-care debate and Halloween. The scary monsters in this movie? In HCAN's eyes, it's the health insurers.

[Youtube:3q6Walwg1KU]

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Need more proof of how much candidate matters? Go inside the numbers of Wednesday's Quinnipiac poll and check out the fav/unfav number from August to now.

August is a good data point to look at because it's when Republican Chris Christie held consistent leads in the polls, anywhere from 5 to 10 points or more.
 
Back then, Christie's fav/unfav was 42%/26% (42% viewed him favorably vs. 26% who did not.) In the poll out Wednesday, it is upside down, a net-negative of 37%/42%.
 
For all the problems incumbent Jon Corzine has, including a job approval rating still mired in the 30s, his fav/unfav numbers have actually gotten BETTER. In August, he was 37%/54%; now, he stands at 41%/52%.
 
Interestingly, independent candidate Chris Daggett is the only one with a net-positive rating, but still many have not heard of him -- or haven't heard enough. He was just a 4%/3% in August, a clear sign of a lack of Name ID. Less than a week before the election, he's 21%/16% with 61 saying they haven't heard enough. That shows better Name ID, but not likely enough for most in the state to be able to find him on the ballot among nine other independent candidates.

From NBC's Mark Murray
This isn't going to sit well with many Democrats.

In an interview with ABC, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-D) -- who campaigned for John McCain in last year's presidential election, and has threatened to help filibuster the health care legislation in the Senate if it contains a public option -- now says he'll campaign for some Republican candidates in the 2010 midterms.

"I probably will support some Republican candidates for Congress or Senate in the election in 2010. I'm going to call them as I see them," Lieberman said.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
President Obama's approval rating in Ohio now stands at 52%, which mirrors his national approval rating, according to the University of Cincinnati's Ohio poll. (The last two NBC/WSJ polls had the president's approval at 51%.) His rating in Ohio is a drop from April, the last time it was measured by this pollster. Then, it stood at 63%.

His numbers on the economy are now upside down. Only 45% approve of his handling of the economy, while 53% disapprove.

He gets slightly better ratings on foreign policy. Now, 50% approve of his handling of foreign policy, while 40% disapprove; 51% approve of his handling of Iraq, 40% disapprove; even less approve of his handling of Afghanistan -- 47%, 42% disapprove. That is a major shift from April when 69% approved of his handling of Afghanistan and just 23% disapproved. But the issue was not as much in focus then, has since become political and the casualties have worsened.

And this piece of the analysis isn't promising for Obama: "Democrats continue to stand solidly behind President Obama, while Republicans are solidly against. Independents are now more likely to give the president negative, as opposed to positive, ratings."

Also, Gov. Ted Strickland (D), up for re-election next year, and locked in a tight race with John Kasich (R), is now at less than 50% for the first time in the poll. Just 48% now approve of his job, while 37% disapprove. And it's worse on his handling of the economy, which is also for the first time a net-negative -- 41%/49%.

The one glimmer of hope for Democrats is that if the economy gets better, that portends well, and more Ohioans than in previous polls are optimistic (33%) that it will get better. But a majority (54%) are still pessimistic that it will get worse.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Kelly Paice
*** A good week for health care? Was this a good week or a bad week for health care? This might be the most fascinating Rorschach test in Washington today. If you listen to many Democrats involved deep in the process, they sound like Kevin Bacon in "Animal House": "Remain calm! All is well!" And they very well could be right. After all, there was real progress in that both the House and Senate have merged bills, which are potentially days away from making it on the floor -- something that's never happened before on health care. That's the good news for the Democrats and the White House. The bad news? It seems all the progress that was made in winning over Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe and in lining up the moderate/conservative Dem senators has been lost. Both the House and Senate bills seem to push things toward the left of the party, suddenly putting focus (and nervousness) on those moderates. They are the ones, remember, on the 2010 election frontlines.

*** Fighting the good fight: Then again, perhaps both Senate Majority Leader Reid and Speaker Pelosi are doing what they have to do -- fight the good fight for the base and push as hard as they can until they are forced to compromise. (That's what you're supposed to do when negotiating, right?)  Bottom line: Last week, there was little doubt health care was going to get done. At the end of this week, that's probably still true. BUT it certainly seems like the process, for Democrats, is going to politically painful for quite some time. Of course, as we've said before, the sausage-making process always was going to painful -- and ugly.

*** Another Afghanistan meeting: The big news today is President Obama's closed-door meeting on Afghanistan with his national security team and Joint Chiefs of Staff at 1:30 pm ET. Today's meeting has the feel of a strategy implementation meeting -- more so than simply strategic review. Clearly, the president's review is winding down; this week has been FILLED with trial balloons leaked to the New York Times, the Washington Post, and the AP about various scenarios, all of which end up with the president OK-ing more troops. The question is how many…

*** Quite the work ethic in the House! A leaked summary of ethics inquiries in the House confirms the suspicion that many in this town already have: The Democrats have a growing ethics problem, and it took them just three years back in power to do that. Interestingly, if you dig deep into the Washington Post story, you'll see this ethics issue really is about one subcommittee and seems to have one person at the center of it all -- John Murtha. Couple him with the ethics cloud hovering over Ways and Means Chair Charlie Rangel and you've got yourself a ready-made issue for NEW, non-Washington Republican candidates to run on. (Should we expect Hoffman in NY-23 to turn a quickie ad over the weekend?) Don't forget the ethics clouds of '91-94 (Post office and bank) helped derail the Democrats as did the ethics clouds of '04-'06 for the Republicans. And what really hurt both parties in power at the time was the slowness with which the leadership handled the problems. How will this Democratic leadership team handle this? Rangel and Murtha, in particular, have lots of "old bull" friends in the House. At one point does the White House and Mr. ("Change the ways of Washington") Obama say, "Enough is enough." He's totally steered clear of this mess for some time and passed it off as House business. But if it's creating a cloud over Washington, then doesn't he have to step in?

*** The fight over the stimulus continues: Later today, the Obama administration says it will post data showing the stimulus has created or saved some 650,000 jobs. And because this data reflects only half of the stimulus spent through Sept. 30 -- money for education, construction and roads, but not money for tax cuts or Pell grants -- administration officials say these numbers "confirm government and private forecaster's estimates that overall Recovery Act spending has created and saved at least 1 million jobs." More: "Analysis by both the Council of Economic Advisers and a wide range of private and public-sector forecasters indicates the Recovery Act contributed between 3 and 4 percentage points to real GDP growth in the third quarter, suggesting that in the absence of the Recovery Act, real GDP would have risen little, if at all, this past quarter." However, House Minority Leader John Boehner counters with this statement: "The trillion-dollar 'stimulus' isn't working, and no amount of phony statistics can change that... While Washington keeps spending and piling more debt on the backs of our children and grandchildren, out-of-work families keep asking, 'where are the jobs?'" By the way, the fact the administration is trying to SELL two sets of numbers (650,000 vs. 1 million) is leading to confusion already, and only underscores the P.R. problem the administration has in selling the stimulus; it's been a problem from the get-go.

*** Hillary's tough talk: NBC's Andrea Mitchell reported yesterday that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gave Pakistan a dose of some tough medicine, charging it's hard to believe that no one in Pakistan's government knows where al Qaeda is -- and couldn't get them if they wanted to. She also leveled that al Qaeda has had a safe haven in Pakistan for seven years, and that there needs to be more of a two-way street between the countries. In an interview with Mitchell that aired on TODAY this morning, Clinton justified her tough talk, saying it was all part of her game plan. "I would not be representing my country if I were not to be as forthcoming with them as they have been with me," the secretary said. This isn't the first time Clinton has delivered a blunt message while traveling overseas. Interestingly, Clinton now heads to the Middle East, a region that could certainly use some tough talk. Be sure to catch more of Andrea's interview with Clinton on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" beginning at 1:00 pm ET.

*** Cook's warning about Tuesday: In his latest column in National Journal, political analyst Charlie Cook warns not to read too much into the handful of contests on Tuesday. "Whatever the outcome of this year's New Jersey and Virginia governor's races, the results will depend on conflicting factors that are unlikely to be replicated in many contests next year," he writes. "Beware, then, of drawing sweeping conclusions." He also applies that advice to the fascinating NY-23 special congressional election. "Losing the seat would be a bit painful for the GOP but would not signal much about the party's 2010 prospects elsewhere. After all, how many states have a viable Conservative Party and how many times next year will the GOP nominate someone as liberal as Scozzafava?" 

*** Looking ahead to next year: Meanwhile, the person at Charlie's "Cook Political Report" who analyzes the House races, David Wasserman, argues that -- one year out -- Republicans are poised to pick up House seats in 2010, but maybe not enough to take back the chamber. "House Democrats face real dangers, foremost a less favorable midterm electorate… But Democrats have a financial advantage, and in the era of endless robo-polling, they will also have plenty of opportunity to diagnose and treat their problems. More than turnout needs to change for the GOP to make larger gains. Republicans need to change more minds and Democrats need to make serious mistakes, like failing to focus enough on jobs throughout 2010, to put the current House majority at risk. At the current rate, it's most plausible Democrats will lose between 15 and 25 seats next year." And 15-25 is close the average loss for a president's first midterm election.

*** The 2009 mayoral races: In addition to next week's NJ and VA contests, there also will be several mayoral races in at least 15 major cities across the country. The marquee ones are in New York and Boston. In New York, after billionaire Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I/R) convinced legislators to change the city's term-limits law to allow for a third term, his re-election became inevitable. Even with polls showing him leading Democrat Bill Thompson by double digits, Bloomberg has spent an extraordinary $85 million of his own money on the race -- and he's expected to eventually spend between $110 million and $140 million. (He even aired a negative attack ad against Thompson this week!?!?!) In Boston, Mayor Thomas M. Menino (D), the city's longest-serving mayor (of 16 years), is running for a fifth term against City Councilor Michael Flaherty (D). Menino is favored, but don't miss the nasty feud between Boston firefighters and the mayor. Elsewhere, there are notable competitive races in Seattle (where the incumbent mayor lost in the primary), Charlotte (where that city's 14-year mayor is stepping down), and Houston (which the New York Times profiles today). 

*** Other 2009 odds and ends: A new Fairleigh Dickinson/Public Mind poll has Jon Corzine (D) and Chris Christie (R) deadlocked -- with Corzine at 44%, Christie at 43%, and Daggett at 6%... And in NY-23, GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava won the endorsement of the district's main newspaper, the Watertown Daily Times. The paper writes that Scozzafava is "best equipped" for the job, while Conservative Party challenger Doug Hoffman's "ideological stands could harm the district" and "the Democratic candidate [Bill Owens] has too much to learn about district issues and the job of governing." This endorsement comes a day after the Syracuse Post-Standard announced its backing of Owens because "he offers a clear and welcome contrast to both Scozzafava and Hoffman on major issues."

Countdown to Election Day 2009: 4 days
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 39 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 81 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 368 days

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"The House Democrats' health care plan would cover 36 million more Americans at a cost of $1.055 trillion over the next decade, while slashing the federal deficit overall by $104 billion, according to a preliminary Congressional Budget Office score released late Thursday."

The New York Times: "Even so, the budget office said that the costs would be fully offset by cuts in the growth of Medicare and by new fees and taxes on individuals, families and businesses. Thus, it said, the bill would reduce projected federal budget deficits by $104 billion over 10 years." 

The GOP spin machine seems to be back up and running after a hiatus. "House Republican leaders want their members to call the 1,990-page Democratic health measure 'the Pelosi healthcare bill.'" And why not? Pelosi is an unpopular figure nationwide, as the latest NBC/WSJ poll shows that just 26% of the country views her favorably, compared with 42% who don't. (There is some disagreement, however, among GOPers. Joe "You Lie" Wilson is opting for the "Pelosi takeover.")

Rut-roh. The Washington Post reports, "House ethics investigators have been scrutinizing the activities of more than 30 lawmakers and several aides in inquiries about issues including defense lobbying and corporate influence peddling, according to a confidential House ethics committee report prepared in July. The report appears to have been inadvertently placed on a publicly accessible computer network, and it was provided to The Washington Post by a source not connected to the congressional investigations. The committee said Thursday night that the document was released by a low-level staffer."

The New York Times' Leibovich profiles Dr. No, Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn (R). 

After Alan "Die Quickly" Grayson cried on the House floor over the uninsured, a Web site has popped up called MyCongressmanIsNuts.com.

David Brooks does a spinal tap of sorts on whether the president has the determination to see the war through.

Obama's pick for Surgeon General, Regina Benjamin, was FINALLY confirmed by the U.S. Senate. Roll Call: "Republicans, saying they want time to debate, have opposed moving ahead on Health and Human Services nominees over a 'gag order' on insurance companies critical of Democratic-led health care reform legislation."

NEW JERSEY: A Fairleigh Dickinson-PublicMind poll shows the governor's race is deadlocked -- with Jon Corzine holding a 44%-43% edge over Chris Christie. 

The Star-Ledger: "Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's campaign yesterday promoted President Obama's Sunday visit to New Jersey, independent Chris Daggett accused Republicans of trying to push him from the race and Republican Chris Christie challenged Corzine to 'man up and say I'm fat' on a national broadcast." 
 
The Skinny in New Jersey: In addition to saying that Corzine needs to "man up and call me fat," Christie also said on the Don Imus show, "I am setting an example, Don. We have to spur our economy. Dunkin' Donuts, International House of Pancakes, those people need to work, too." Christie also predicted that he'll be "a big fat winner" on Election Day. Meanwhile, Corzine is attacking Christie for likening early childhood education to government babysitting.

NEW YORK: The recent rash of endorsements in New York's special congressional election is putting Republican members of Congress in a tough spot between their conservative base and their party… [F]or most, it's a situation they'd rather avoid." And... "Playing off those announcements, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) on Wednesday began trying to put Republican Senate candidates on the spot in the special election, asking whom they would support." 
 
Republican Dede Scozzafava has won the endorsement of the district's main newspaper, The Watertown Daily Times. The paper writes that Scozzafava is "best equipped" for the job, while Conservative Party challenger Doug Hoffman's "ideological stands could harm the district" and "the Democratic candidate [Bill Owens] has too much to learn about district issues and the job of governing." The endorsement comes a day after the Syracuse Post-Standard announced its backing of Owens because "he offers a clear and welcome contrast to both Scozzafava and Hoffman on major issues."

Federal stimulus spending has become a key issue in the NY-23 congressional race, as the Watertown Daily Times reports that the federal stimulus has put "$100 million into the 23rd Congressional District, but has saved or created only about 200 jobs." The Daily Times writes, "Opponents of president Obama's agenda are trying to use the issue to attack Democrat William L. Owens and, to a lesser degree, Republican Dierdre K. Scozzafava, who have both said they would have voted for it in Congress." Hoffman "criticized the stimulus for being directed toward municipal budgets or to special interest projects."

VIRGINIA: When asked why Democrat Creigh Deeds is trailing Republican challenger Bob McDonnell in recent gubernatorial polls, Deeds spokesman Mike Gehrke told the Washington Times, "It's money and how they spent it… Bob McDonnell has run more negative ads in the past several weeks than we've run ads in total." The Washington Times has the money breakdown: "Including money raised and spent in the primary, Mr. Deeds raised $16.2 million and spent $15.3 million, as of Oct. 21... [I]n the same period, Mr. McDonnell raised $21.5 million and spent $19.6 million."

FLORIDA: The Hill: "Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's Senate campaign is accused of breaking campaign finance law by ghost-writing a negative website about his opponent in the Republican primary race. At issue is the new site, TruthAboutRubio.com, which launched this week and features hits on Crist primary opponent Marco Rubio, including suggesting Rubio's campaign was behind a video comparing Crist to Adolf Hitler."  
 
MASSACHUSETTS: How bad are the state's budget problems? Deval Patrick announced he's slashing 1,000 jobs. 

NEW YORK: "Attorney General Andrew Cuomo campaigned for Controller William Thompson in the Bronx on Thursday - or was it the other way around?" The New York Daily News posits. "Thompson needs all the support he can get from white ethnic Democrats to win his uphill battle against Mayor Bloomberg next week, while Cuomo will need African-American backers like Thompson in his rumored run for governor next year."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The House ethics committee has just announced that it is going forward with investigations of allegations surrounding Reps. Maxine Waters and Laura Richardson.

The committee is also announcing its finding that Rep. Sam Graves has not violated any rules and the committee is closing its investigation.

The committee statement, in part, regarding Waters:

"...the Committee has unanimously voted to establish an investigative subcommittee to conduct an inquiry...

"...with respect to Representative Waters' alleged communications and activities with, or on behalf of, the National Bankers Association or OneUnited Bank, a bank in which Representative Waters' husband owned stock and previously served on the board of directors..."

Regarding Richardson:

"...the Committee has unanimously voted to establish an investigative subcommittee...

"...(to see if Richardson violated House rules) by failing to disclose certain real property, income and liabilities on her financial disclosure forms (and amendments thereto) and whether Representative Richardson received an impermissible 'gift' or received preferential treatment from her lender relating to the foreclosure sale of loan modification agreement for, or relating to, her property in Sacramento, California."

Regarding Graves:

"...representative Graves did not violate any provision of the Code of Official Conduct...

"...with respect to an invitation extended to testify before a Committee on Small Business hearing on issues facing the renewable fuels industry to Mr. Brooks Hurst, who held investments in the same renewable fuel cooperatives as Representative Graves' wife. The Committee considers the matter closed and no further inquiry is warranted."

From NBC's Pete Williams
A bill signed into law by President Obama today gives the federal government new authority to withhold photos of detainees who may have been subjected to abuse by their U.S. captors.

After first agreeing to release them, Obama reversed himself earlier this year and directed the Justice Department to seek court rulings that would allow the government to withhold them. They were sought in a lawsuit filed by the American Civil Liberties Union. The pictures, several dozen, were taken during investigations into prisoner abuse in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Obama said releasing the pictures would "further inflame anti-American opinion" and would "put our troops in greater danger."

A Department of Homeland Security appropriations bill, signed today, gives the Defense Department new grounds to exempt them from release under the Freedom of Information Act.

The Justice Department has been urging the Supreme Court to wait until Congress finished acting on the issue before deciding whether to take up the case. It now seems likely that today's action will put an end to the issue, making it unnecessary for the court to hear the case.

From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
The State Department is confirming Palestinian reports that Secretary Clinton is leaving Islamabad tomorrow evening for Abu Dhabi, where she will hold talks Saturday with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas.

The rest of her schedule is unclear, but she is expected in Jerusalem Saturday night for meetings Sunday with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, according to Israeli officials.

She then heads to Morocco for meetings Monday and Tuesday.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Republican Chris Christie, appearing on Don Imus' show today weighed in on the flap over opponent Jon Corzine's campaign using what some see as a gratuitous attack on Christie's wasteline.
 
"If you're going to do it, at least man up and say I'm fat," Christie told Imus.

"Afterwards, he wusses out and says, 'Oh no, no, I didn't mean that, I don't know what you're talking about,'" Christie said of Corzine. "Man up -- if you say I'm fat let's go, let's talk about it."

Here are a couple of the ads in which Christie's campaign cuts through the fat and says the Corzine camp is raising the specter of the Republican's weight:

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Don't miss that in the Franklin and Marshall poll out today on the Pennsylvania Senate race that Arlen Specter's approval rating is just 23%.

It was just six months ago that Specter jumped ship and joined the Democrats because he saw the writing on the primary wall. It made him the automatic statewide favorite.

Specter still leads former admiral and congressman Joe Sestak in a Democratic primary, 30%-18% (with more than 47% undecided). But that's closer than in August when Specter led Sestak, 37%-11%.

Specter beats Toomey in a general election matchup, but by just two points, 33%-31%. Toomey leads Sestak 28%-20%, but with so few committed in that hypothetical matchup, that is likely a product of Sestak's lack of name ID.

Specter didn't receive rave reviews for his handling of a healthcare town hall that made its way around the cable channels, and Sestak has half a year to improve on getting better known, which gives Sestak a forseeable avenue to actually win.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House leaders hope to have their health-care bill on the floor late next week, perhaps Thursday, according Democratic Rep. George Miller, chairman of the education and labor committee and close confidant of Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Meanwhile, House progressives head to the White House this afternoon for a meeting, where they plan to tell President Obama that they have real problems with the concept of the "opt out" public option -- to say nothing of the "trigger," according to Raul Grijalva, co-chair of the Progressive Caucus.

Still, Democratic leaders are confident today that they will have the votes to pass the bill outlined at the west front event this morning, notwithstanding the misgivings of progressives, who are largely expected to fall in line next week.

But Grijalva suspects that, ultimately, the public option will be watered down in a conference with the Senate, and thinks that the most likely outcome is a trigger. That is something that he says he and other liberals cannot accept.

Others are drawing a harder line. Democratic Rep. Dennis Kucinich took to the floor today and asked, "Is this the best we can do?" He wants the "robust" public option and thinks this version falls short.

From NBC's Chuck Todd
The Obama administration, via a statement from the Treasury Department, is officially asking Congress to extend the tax credit for first-time homebuyers.

From the release:

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan called on Congress to approve three important measures to improve housing and the housing market for Americans: extension of the First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit for a limited period, extension of higher loan limits for home mortgages, and secure funding for the Housing Trust Fund. "We welcome efforts taken by Congress to extend the First Time Homebuyers Tax Credit for a limited period. This credit has brought new families into the housing market and contributed to three consecutive months of rising home prices nationwide," said Secretaries Geithner and Donovan.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira, Luke Russert and Tony Capra
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the outline of the House healthcare bill this morning on the West Front steps of the Capitol.

The bill is available on the House Rules Committee Website.

The Speaker's office says it would cost $894 Billion over 10 years and be fully paid for.

The Congressional Budget Office will release a "score" for the bill later today.

*** UPDATE *** The press secretary for House Minority Whip Eric Cantor e-mailed First Read contending that Republicans were barred from being at Pelosi's West Front announcement.

"Dems are blocking access to their press conference," wrote Brad Dayspring, an aide to Cantor. "Apparently there is a list, and if you're not on it, you can't get through. This is a public space on the steps of the Capitol and the Mall."

NBC's Mike Viqueira, who was there, confirms that a Cantor staffer was barred from attending by a Capitol policeman, who said he was told by the Speaker's office that it was invited guests only.

When asked about it, security officials and the Speaker's staff said that didn't seem right to them and that they knew nothing about it.

As an aside, there was one protestor with a bullhorn who was shut down. In that area, apparently no amplified sound is allowed.

*** UPDATE 2 *** Cantor's office offers up this video of a barricade to the event, an RSVP list and a staffer saying they can watch it on C-SPAN.

Asked how much consideration, if any, there is for the security of the person who's second in line to the president of the United States, Dayspring responded, "You'd have to ask them whether security is the reason that the Speaker's staff banned the public from attending – I don't have those answers."

From NBC's Mark Murray
Yesterday, we noted that the Iowa Family Policy Center has invited Sarah Palin to address the group on Nov. 21, which just happens to be the same day when Vice President Biden attends the Iowa Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson dinner in the Hawkeye State.

Palin has yet to decide whether she'll attend the event in Iowa, but this story might complicate things a bit: Politico's Martin writes that the Iowa Family Policy Center is raising $100,000 to pay for Palin's speaking fee -- which has raised eyebrows from other Iowa groups.

"[R]epresentatives from other Iowa-based political advocacy groups said they would never consider shelling out money for what many politicians see as a privilege: the opportunity to speak to a room full of sure-fire caucus-goers who often serve as precinct captains and can be instrumental to a presidential candidate's success. 'If somebody tells me they want me to pay an appearance fee, it tells me they're not very serious about running for president,' said Ed Failor, Jr., president of Iowans for Tax Relief and an influential GOP insider."

From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
Hillary Clinton, buffeted by tough questions for two days about the U.S. influence on Pakistan's military, said today she finds it hard to believe that no one in Pakistan's government knows where al Qaeda is -- and couldn't get them if they wanted to. She added that al Qaeda has had a safe haven in Pakistan for seven years.

The Secretary of State's very undiplomatic response came in a meeting with newspaper editors.

This exchange is not on camera:

Asked why other countries can't be involved in fighting terrorism -- not just Pakistan -- Clinton said: "Al-Qaeda has had safe haven in Pakistan since 2002. I find it hard to believe that nobody in your government knows where they are and couldn't get them if they really wanted to. Maybe that's the case; maybe they're not gettable. I don't know.'' 

But, she said, al Qaeda has launched attacks on Indonesia, Philippines and many other countries.

"So the world has an interest in seeing the capture and killing of the people who are the masterminds of this terrorist syndicate," Clinton said. "As far as we know, they are in Pakistan. I am more than willing to hear every complaint about the United States'' and "both answer, but also to change where we can, so we that we do have better communication and we have better understanding.

"But this is a two-way street. If we are going to have a mature partnership, where we work together," then "there are issues that not just the United States, but others have with your government and with your military security establishment. I don't believe in dancing around difficult issues, because I don't think that benefits anybody.

"I ask in the pursuit of mutual respect that you take seriously our concerns.''

*** UPDATE *** The State Department just announced that Clinton will be heading to Israel this weekend. Here's the release:

STATEMENT BY P.J. Crowley

Secretary Clinton's Travel to the Middle East

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Special Envoy for Middle East Peace Senator George Mitchell will hold bilateral meetings this weekend with Israeli and Palestinian leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Mahmoud Abbas, in the region.

Senator Mitchell traveled to and is currently in the region in advance of Secretary Clinton, who already is traveling through the region.  These meetings will build on the intensive work the Administration has engaged in with both sides since the trilateral meeting last month.

As President Obama has said, the Administration is committed to comprehensive peace, including a two-state solution.  As Secretary Clinton reported to the President last week, challenges remain as we continue to work with both sides.  Her visit reflects the Administration's commitment -- and her personal commitment -- to work through the challenges we face in pursuit of comprehensive Middle East peace. 

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Obama visits Dover: Before he makes his decision whether or not to send more U.S. troops to Afghanistan, President Obama traveled to Dover Air Force Base late last night to witness the transfer of 18 U.S. personnel who were killed in that country. "Wearing a suit and a topcoat, Obama was greeted by the airlift wing commander before getting into car for the short drive to a base chapel, where he met with family members of the deceased," the Washington Post reports. "Afterward, the president took part in the military's precise, solemn transfer of the cases holding the bodies of the fallen from the plane to the vehicles that would transport them to a base mortuary. Four times, Obama marched up the ramp of the transport plane and bore witness as Maj. Richard S. Bach, an Air Force chaplain, offered a prayer over the remains. Afterward, he joined other officials, including Attorney General Eric C. Holder, standing at attention and saluting." (The video footage of the Dover event, by the way, is for just one soldier, as the family of Sgt. Dale Griffin gave permission for media coverage.) The president returned to the White House a little before 5:00 am ET. Perhaps more than anything else, last night's visit signals that whatever troop decision Obama makes, it should keep the left from being overly critical as he's absorbed the cost of his decision from every angle -- including this one. 

*** The recession is over: That is the message from the latest GDP numbers. Per the AP, "The economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the best showing in two years, fueled by government-supported spending on cars and homes. It was the strongest signal yet the economy entered a new phase of recovery and that the worst recession since the 1930s has ended." That's news the Obama White House will definitely tout today. But here's the news that the GOP will tout, courtesy again of the AP: "An early progress report on President Barack Obama's economic recovery plan overstates by thousands the number of jobs created or saved through the stimulus program, a mistake that White House officials promise will be corrected in future reports." The White House late last night fired off an aggressive response to the article: "This story draws misleading conclusions from a handful of examples. It looks at only a small portion of the data -- an initial upload of data representing just two percent of Recovery Act spending – that was made publicly available before a full review of its accuracy could be done."

*** Pelosi's health bill: At 10:30 am ET, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats will outline the health-care legislation they plan to bring to the House floor. As NBC's Mike Viqueira reported yesterday, the measure is not expected to include the "robust" public option, or the reimbursement rate to medical professions based on Medicare plus 5%. Instead, it will include a public option based on rates negotiated region by region -- which Harry Reid's Senate bill also includes.

*** The great American health-care fight: There are many other moving parts today in the health-care debate. The Democratic National Committee goes after Sarah Palin in its latest "Call'em out" campaign to debunk what it says are the mistruths she has spread on health-care reform… With Sen. Evan Bayh (D) apparently undecided whether he'd join a GOP filibuster, the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy for America are releasing new polling data (courtesy of Research 2000) showing that Indiana voters support a public option by a 52%-42% margin… The Dem-leaning Americans United for Change has a Web video blasting health insurers and their anti-trust protection… And the National Republican Senatorial Committee has a Halloween-themed Web video whacking Obama and the Democrats on health-care and a host of other things.

*** Plouffe on Hillary, Palin: This Sunday on "Meet the Press," David Gregory will interview Obama campaign David Plouffe regarding his new book, "The Audacity to Win: The Inside Story and Lessons of Barack Obama's Historic Victory." Time magazine has some excerpts from Plouffe's book. On weighing Hillary as Obama's VP: "Barack continued to be intrigued by Hillary. 'I still think Hillary has a lot of what I am looking for in a VP,' he said to us '... I think Bill may be too big a complication. If I picked her, my concern is that there would be more than two of us in the relationship.' Neither Ax nor I were fans of the Hillary option." And on Palin: "I also thought it was a downright bizarre, ill-considered and deeply puzzling choice ... [Obama] said, "... when voters step back and analyze how he made this decision, I think he's going to be in big trouble. You just can't wing something like this — it's too important."

*** A ceasefire in the Chamber-White House war? In the past few days, the Obama White House and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have engaged in a spirited -- and public -- battle over health care and climate change. But today, at least, the sides appear to be calling a truce. At 11:50 am ET, Obama will deliver remarks at the White House to members of the Chamber, the normally Republican-leaning National Federation of Independent Business, and other small business owners. Per the White House, the speech is a follow up "to the small business announcement last week that would increase the caps for existing SBA loans and give smaller banks better access to TARP funding to encourage more lending." Later in the day, Obama meets with Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore.

*** Swine flu, WH perks: Two other stories, via the New York Times, deserve attention today. The first is about the shortage of the swine flu vaccine. "The shortage, caused by delays in the vaccine manufacturing process, has put the president in exactly the situation he sought to avoid — one in which questions are being raised about the government's response." Yesterday, we saw the first Republican lawmaker (Missouri Rep./Senate candidate Roy Blunt) hit the administration on this issue. The other story worth keeping an eye on is the follow-up to that Washington Times story from yesterday, which alleged that big contributors were receiving special perks. "Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary, spent part of his briefing on Wednesday trying to dismiss the suggestion that people who gave money to President Obama were given special access to the executive mansion. The questions arose after The Washington Times reported that Mr. Obama has continued the longtime practice of rewarding donors with perks, including use of the bowling alley. 'Contributing doesn't guarantee a visit to the White House,' Mr. Gibbs said, 'nor does it preclude it.'" The question the White House seems to be having the TOUGHEST time answering is not granting donors access to the White House -- but why high level officials, like Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina, are participating in donor briefings at DNC events? 

*** Rove's 2009 spin: In his weekly Wall Street Journal column, Karl Rove writes how the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial contests could be harbingers for the 2010 midterms. "Tuesday's election will provide the most tangible evidence so far of how strong a backlash is building—and just how frightened centrist Democrats should be of 2010. For Republicans, it looks as if hope and change are on the way." But as George W. Bush's chief political adviser, Rove should also know that the VA and NJ races don't always predict what's going to happen in the midterms. In 2005 -- right after Hurricane Katrina -- Democrats won both contests, an early sign of their success in 2006 (when they back control of Congress) and in 2008 (when they won the White House). Yet in 2001 -- right after the 9/11 terrorist attacks -- Democrats also won both races. But the next year, Republicans picked up seats in the House and Senate, and Bush won re-election in 2004. Rove does offer some interesting advice to Republicans in that NY-23 civil war: Tell third-party conservative Doug Hoffman he is welcome to caucus with the GOP if he wins the election. 

*** 2009 ballot watch: The gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as the special congressional election in NY-23, are certainly the marquee races on Tuesday. But there are also several ballot initiatives to watch, particularly one on same-sex marriage in Maine. In May, Maine became the sixth state to pass a law allowing same-sex marriage, but voters on Tuesday will consider whether they want to repeal that law. Also in Maine, voters take up whether to change its medical marijuana law. Additionally, Maine and Washington consider a Taxpayer Bills of Right (TABOR), which would limit states and localities on taxing and spending. (In 1992, voters in Colorado approved the first TABOR.) Finally, as cities and states across the country struggle with trying to balance budgets, voters in Ohio will weigh whether to add casinos in four cities. It has become a major issue in those four cities' mayoral elections.

*** More 2009: RNC Chair Michael Steele campaigns today and tomorrow with the top of the GOP ticket in Virginia; Steele stumped in New Jersey last week… PolitickerNJ reports that Jon Corzine (D) is outspending Chris Christie (R) by almost a 3-1 clip… And a new Virginia Commonwealth University poll has Bob McDonnell (R) up by 18 points (!!!).

Countdown to Election Day 2009: 5 days
Countdown to MA Special Primary: 40 days
Countdown to MA Special Election: 82 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 369 days

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