The Jackson Clarion-Ledger: "The Oxford debate remained listed among 'upcoming events' on McCain's official campaign Web site, and the event page proclaimed: 'Please watch John McCain debate Barack Obama in a presidential debate focusing on foreign policy on September 26th in Oxford.' Most people at the University of Mississippi acted Thursday as if there was little doubt that the debate will happen, though. Media poured onto campus, and satellite trucks filled several parking lots. During certain times of the day, those walking across campus with press credentials and cameras outnumbered those carrying textbooks. Tents went up in the Grove for 'Issues Alley' -- a sort of information fair for young voters. A stage was erected for the Rock the Debate celebration today on campus."

"McCain's staff also was still working here to advance the senator's visit. His wife, Cindy, has events scheduled today. Ole Miss spokeswoman Barbara Lago confirmed that advance teams for Obama and McCain, as well as debate moderator Jim Lehrer, signed off on the debate facilities. 'Everything is in place and ready,' Lago said."

The Los Angeles Times' Z. Barabak does some expectations setting: "Obama, who once taught constitutional law, tends toward long, annotated answers and shrinks from verbal combat. His laid-back manner can seem aloof and, at times, condescending. McCain is blunt and relishes the cut and thrust of political battle, though his pugnacity can make him seem short-tempered and angry."

The LA Times also does a debate preview of sorts by comparing McCain's and Obama's foreign policies and noting that they've started to come closer together. "[O]n a striking list of particulars -- including Russia, Afghanistan, Iraq -- their differences have narrowed as election day has approached. In part, the migration reflects the complexity of this year's national security issues, knotty problems that have defied solutions proposed by partisans on the left or right. But the shift also reflects how the candidates are increasingly focusing on uncommitted voters."

A national New York Times/CBS poll shows Obama leading among registered voters by five points, 47%-42%, unchanged from last week. "Voters who said the economy was the key issue for them were far more likely to support Mr. Obama. And 64 percent of voters expressed confidence in Mr. Obama's ability to make the right decision on the economy, compared with 55 percent who said they were confident in Mr. McCain's ability, according to the poll."

Here's a new round of All State/National Journal battleground polls… Obama is up eight points in Michigan (47%-39%), up one point in New Hampshire (44%-43%), and up two points in Pennsylvania (43%-41%).

COLORADO: The debate over Social Security is rearing its head in Colorado's Senate race, and in the presidential debate as well. "Social Security reform and the stalled, Republican-backed plan to add personalized, market-invested retirement accounts to the system are back in the spotlight - just in time for the sprint to the November election." 
 
FLORIDA: The Orlando Sentinel breaks down just how much Central Florida matters to both campaigns' ad buyers. In the region's media markets, "The Obama campaign bought about $1.4 million worth of airtime since the Aug. 26 primary. By comparison, Sen. John McCain and the Republican National Committee have spent just more than $725,000. Both campaigns see the region as key to capturing Florida's 27 electoral votes."

MISSOURI: A new Research 2000 poll has Obama cutting McCain's lead in the Show Me State to one point, 46%-45%. (Should we use the same logic, though, with Obama this week that we did with McCain two weeks ago. If he's not leading in a state this week, he can't win in November if there is even the slightest shift back to McCain?)

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama and McCain are in a statistical tie, 46%-45%, according to a Suffolk/7 News poll. By 36-14, voters blame the Republicans for the Wall St. crisis. Voters were split on who they trust most. McCain was slightly ahead, 47-45, though they think Obama will be the next president. Also, 51% thought Palin was not qualified to be president, but by 37%-29%, voters thought she had been treated harshly by the media.

But a new Concord Monitor/Research 2000 poll shows McCain trailing Obama 44% to 48%. "Pollster Del Ali said he didn't see any evidence of a boost for McCain among women from his selection of Sarah Palin, the Alaska governor, as a vice presidential nominee. The poll had women choosing Obama over McCain 52 to 39 percent, while men picked McCain over Obama 49 to 44 percent."

David Brooks writes what may become an oft-quoted column for those who want to write what- happened-to-McCain? stories. "Do I wish he was running a different campaign? Yes. It's not that he has changed his political personality that bothers me. I've come to accept that in this media-circus environment, you simply cannot run for president as a candid, normal person."

Brooks concludes by telling his readers to ignore what McCain has done in the last two weeks -- heck, the last two years. "If McCain is elected, he will retain his instinct for the hard challenge. With that Greatest Generation style of his, he will run the least partisan administration in recent times. He is not a sophisticated conceptual thinker, but he is a good judge of character. He is not an organized administrator, but he has become a practiced legislative craftsman. He is, above all — and this is completely impossible to convey in the midst of a campaign — a serious man prone to serious things."

(Question for Brooks: Then how do you explain the Palin pick?)

The Boston Globe's Lehigh sees things a bit differently. "Campaigns teach you important things about the candidates, and we're learning this about John McCain: At heart, the former fighter pilot is a riverboat gambler. First came his pick of Sarah Palin… Now comes McCain's debate gambit…  Despite McCain's attempt to portray this as an act of statesmanship, it is, of course, blatantly political. Off-balance since the financial market meltdown started, and slipping behind in the polls as the public's attention turns to the urgency of financial and economic matters, McCain is trying to regain the momentum. This move is designed to show him as a man of action, one who, as his campaign slogan goes, puts country first. Not everyone is buying, certainly."

If McCain is the emotional candidate (he channels voter anger better than most pols), then Obama is the cool customer. But is he too cool? The New York Times: "However forceful and passionate Mr. Obama can be, his speeches and public appearances this week have underscored how he is sometimes out of sync with the visceral anger of Americans who are losing their jobs and homes. He often talks about growing up on food stamps and about having paid off his student loans only recently, yet his tone and volume, body language, facial expressions and words convey a certain distance from the ache that many voters feel."

More: "Whereas former Vice President Al Gore and Senator John Kerry struck populist tones during their presidential bids, Mr. Obama is having none of it. For better or worse, his performance in this time of financial peril goes to the heart of who he is. Mr. Obama may have looked subdued as he arrived at the White House on Thursday for a meeting on the economy, but he also stayed calm and ultimately prevailed at a similarly urgent point in his primary campaign against Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, whose turn toward populism helped her win the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries."

Of course, here's your answer: "For Mr. Obama, the financial crisis poses different risks. He wants to appear fired up over the economy, but he has written before about wanting to avoid appearing like a stereotypical angry black man. Unlike Jesse Jackson, the Rev. Al Sharpton and other black leaders whose fulminations could scare white voters, Mr. Obama is not from and of New York, Detroit, or the segregated South; he grew up in Hawaii and Indonesia. To some degree Mr. Obama faces the opposite challenge from fiery black leaders who came before him: Is he too cool for a crisis like this one?"

The New York Times also picks up on the fact that some of Obama's recent attack ads have not just stretched the truth but downright twisted it. Obama's up to four ads released in the last three weeks that have drawn the ire of fact-checkers. "Yet as Mr. McCain's misleading advertisements became fodder on shows like 'The View' and "Saturday Night Live," Mr. Obama began his own run of advertisements on radio and television that have matched the dubious nature of Mr. McCain's more questionable spots.

Will the answer she gave to Katie Couric about Russia become her defining moment in this campaign? It's garnering a lot of attention. If there is an upside, it certainly lowers expectations again for the VP debate.

The New York Times' Stanley critiques the performance. "While it is quite likely, and perhaps understandable, that Ms. Palin felt nervous and spooked by all the media attention, it wasn't a reassuring performance. Ms. Palin looked more steady and confident when she took a few questions from reporters after a visit to ground zero in Lower Manhattan, her first, gingerly encounter with campaign reporters since her nomination."

"The CBS interview, shown partly on Wednesday and partly on Thursday, was only a first taste — Ms. Couric is scheduled to go out on the campaign trail with the Palin team early next week. But it may be hard for Mr. McCain's running mate to recoup. It wasn't her first interview on national television, but in some ways it was the worst."

As if Palin's bad week needed to get worse, the Washington Post reports that, as governor, Palin accepted over $25,000 in gifts "from industry executives, municipalities and a cultural center whose board includes officials from some of the largest mining interests in the state, a review of state records shows. About a quarter of the entities bestowing gifts on the governor are represented by one of Alaska's most influential mining lobbyists, who said in an interview that she was not involved in the tributes. The lobbyist, Wendy Chamberlain, has a relationship with the governor's family through the friendship of their teenage daughters."

"On forms disclosing the gifts, Palin, who is the Republican vice presidential nominee, routinely checked 'no' when asked whether she was in a position to 'take official action that may affect the person who gave me the gift,' and a spokeswoman for Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign said the gifts had no undue influence on her."

Palin did make some other news yesterday when she failed to endorse either Don Young or Ted Stevens for re-election.

NBC News and other news organizations this week obtained numerous personal notes and letters by Palin when she was mayor of Wasilla. In particular, NBC's Jim Popkin reports, several letters further confirm Palin's close relationship with Sen. Ted Stevens, who was the state's go-to lawmaker for the congressionally approved pet spending projects called earmarks. Palin wrote to Stevens at least three times in 2002 alone, asking for funding for a $150,000 "floatplane study" for Wasilla, an airport instrument landing system for the city, railroad depot improvements and a "Land Mobile Radio Project" for emergency responders. She got most of it. "Thank you for your continued support," she writes.

"The McCain-Palin campaign is "moving on many fronts" to stall an investigation into whether Gov. Sarah Palin abused the power of her office by firing her public safety commissioner, Alaska lawmakers claimed in a court filing Thursday. The filing is in response to a lawsuit by five Republican state legislators seeking to halt the Legislative Council's investigation into whether Palin abused her power when she fired Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan this summer."

The AP: "The woman touted by Republican nominee John McCain as a reformer said late Thursday that she will donate to charity more than $1,000 in campaign contributions from two Alaska politicians implicated in a sprawling federal corruption probe. Palin is also giving back $1,000 from the wife of one of the men. The move came a few hours after The Associated Press reported that Palin had accepted the money during her successful 2006 run for governor. Two months later, Palin was elected easily after she promised to rid Alaska's capital of dirty politics."

Here's a New York Times piece that's going to drive the Clintons and the Obama campaign nuts. "As comfortable as Mr. Clinton is in saying, 'I like John McCain,' and 'I like Sarah Palin,' no one seems to have heard him say the same for Mr. Obama. Instead, when speaking of Mr. Obama, the Democratic nominee, Mr. Clinton has assumed a professorial stance that sometimes drifts toward emotional aloofness and disregard."

"'Is it me, or he didn't want to say the name "Barack Obama"?' the comedian Chris Rock asked with barely contained anger when he appeared Monday night on 'Late Show With David Letterman' immediately after Mr. Letterman's 15-minute interview with Mr. Clinton."

"Answering Mr. Letterman's questions, Mr. Clinton gave a dispassionate discourse on the cultural and political dynamics of the race, which, he said, would ultimately play in Mr. Obama's favor. Mr. Clinton mentioned his wife, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who had lost the Democratic primary to Mr. Obama, far more often than he mentioned the party's standard-bearer. And in predicting victory for Mr. Obama, Mr. Clinton suggested that it would happen because people were hurting economically. He did not say that Mr. Obama's victory would be because voters especially wanted Mr. Obama to be president."

In his latest National Journal column, Charlie Cook writes that the November outlook for Senate Republicans is looking grim. He says that Republicans are the underdogs in Virginia, New Mexico, and Alaska. Six other Republican seats are now basically toss-ups— those held by Norm Coleman of Minnesota, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, Gordon Smith of Oregon, John Sununu of New Hampshire, and Roger Wicker of Mississippi, plus the seat that Wayne Allard is giving up in Colorado. The GOP's prospects in Minnesota, Oregon, and North Carolina have dimmed a bit in the past month or two. The GOP candidates are trailing by a little in New Hampshire and Colorado; running about even in Minnesota, Oregon, and North Carolina; and polling a bit ahead in Mississippi."

"Today, holding its losses down to four seats would be manna from heaven for the GOP. Party leaders would take a five- or six-seat loss in stride, given the circumstances. A seven-seat loss would be bad but not shockingly horrible. Even an eight-seat loss is possible if Democrats draw an inside straight, as they did in 2006… The bottom line is that things have gotten worse for Senate Republicans over the past few weeks, so much worse that a magnitude of losses that seemed impossible just a few months ago now seems entirely possible."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
OXFORD, Miss. -- The atmosphere on the Ole Miss campus is one of enthusiasm -- and a bit of anxiety -- for a debate a state has hoped and planned for for a year and a half, since the school applied to have it.

Republican Gov. Haley Barbour today called for the debate to go on. The state newspaper was filled with editorials and op-eds urging McCain to show up.

The Republican nominee may have thrown a wrench into the plans, but in the debate hall here, workers are drilling the final screws into the debate set; lights are being checked; podiums are being measured; the last of the set's panels are being put up and wires being weaved. Outside, security checkpoints are in place, network TV camera stands are built and set. (And never mind those hotel reservations and flight plans.)

"The debate will go on," University of Mississippi Vice Chancellor Gloria Kellum told NBC's local affiliate, adding, "We've spent two years working on this."

Advance teams from both campaigns have completed walk throughs, the local affiliate reported citing university officials, adding that if McCain doesn't show, there will be a 90-minute town hall with Obama taking questions from the audience.

In this proud town, on this university campus, residents, students and school officials want the debate to go on. And everything's in place.

McCain, tonight, told NBC's Brian Williams on Nightly News he is "hopeful" he will be at the debate.

An entire town and state sure hopes so.

From NBC's Jim Popkin
When federal judges in San Francisco ruled in 2002 that reciting the Pledge of Allegiance in public schools was unconstitutional because it included the phrase "under God," Sarah Palin was not amused. Palin, who at the time was Mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, quickly drafted a terse letter to the editor of a San Francisco newspaper.

"Dear Editor," Palin wrote in 2002. "San Francisco judges forbidding our Pledge of Allegiance? They will take the phrase 'under God' away from me when my cold, dead lips can no longer utter those words," Palin wrote.

"God Bless America," she concluded.

Palin's letter to the editor is one of hundreds of personal notes and letters written by the former Mayor, and obtained this week to NBC News and others. The documents shed light on the management style-- and personality -- of the small town mayor turned vice presidential candidate.

There are few headline grabbers in the lot. Even Palin's Pledge-of-Allegiance rant was a commonly held view at the time. (The U.S. Supreme Court later overturned the ruling on technical grounds. But not before Palin pushed through a city resolution stating that the Wasilla City Council "shall continue to recite America's Pledge of Allegiance, in its entirety, including and especially the words, '…one nation, under God…")

Click on to Deep Background for more on this story... 

From CNBC's John Harwood and NBC's Alicia Jennings
The top GOP member of the Banking Committee says "no deal."  But another Senate Republican tells CNBC's John Harwood that his colleagues appear to be ready to back the bill.

Sen. Richard Shelby, a vociferous opponent of the bailout legislation, told reporters gathered outside of the White House that negotiators have not yet reached an agreement on the resolution to the financial crisis. "I don't believe we have an agreement," he insisted of the group meeting inside, which included Bush, McCain, Obama, and bipartisan Congressional leaders.  "There's still a lot of different opinions."

The White House also issued a statement indicating that a deal is still being hammered out, saying via spokesperson Dana Perino that "members of the Administration and the Congressional leaders pledged to continue working together to finalize a bill that will address concerns and solve the problem as soon as possible."

But, CNBC's John Harwood reports, GOP senators may be ready to sign on to the end product.  Tennessee's Lamar Alexander tells Harwood that at least 40 of the 49 Republican senators are prepared to agree to the package.

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
WILKES-BARRE, Pa. -- Just as both presidential candidates were preparing to meet with President Bush to discuss a compromise on the bailout package, Biden criticized the principles McCain outlined for such a deal, saying they were more notable for what was left out.

"The silence on issues relating to the middle class is deafening in the package John has put forward," Biden said at a rally on the banks of the Susquehanna River, pointing to the absence of relief for homeowners facing foreclosure. "If John keeps changing his rhetoric but not changing the worn-out philosophy that got us in this spot … why is John expecting us to believe he will be an agent of change?

On the other hand, he praised Obama for reaching out to McCain yesterday, saying that "unlike all the rest of the people talking," he showed that he "will be prepared to change the tone of Washington."

"Ladies and gentlemen, this is what we mean by leadership, not posturing," he said.

Later in Biden's remarks, he attempted to turn the issue of taxes back against the Republican ticket, as he explained a McCain proposal he said would tax individuals for the value of employer-provided health -are plans. It would increase the tax burden for middle-class people, he estimated, an additional $12,000. But his intended attack ended up confusing some of the crowd.

"Ladies and gentlemen, and I say to the national press here, the single biggest tax cut proposed in history for the middle class is being proposed by John McCain," he said, rather than calling the plan a tax increase.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd and House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank said today their bipartisan meeting this morning produced an "agreement on a set of principles."

Here's what those principles are, according to a source involved in the talks. 

(Note: This is NOT "the deal" -- just an agreement on principles between about 10 members on the relevant committees.  These provisions must still be presented to the leaderships of the House and Senate, Republican and Democratic members, and the White House.)

MONEY: Under the agreement, Paulson would be allowed to get an overall amount of $700-billion, BUT only $250-billion would be available immediately.  Then an additional $100-billion would be given to Paulson upon his certification that he needed it.  And the final $350-billion would be subject to a "Congressional joint resolution of disapproval."

The other principles include:

TAXPAYER PROTECTIONS:
- standards to prevent excessive executive compensation
- some form of equity sharing
- most profits used to reduce national debt

OVERSIGHT:
- oversight board, IG, GAO audits, reports to Congress

FORECLOSURES:
- find ways to modify mortgages for those at risk of foreclosure
- require modification on loans owned or controlled by the government

From NBC's Robert Windrem
Regarding the recurrent rumor that the Bush administration has ordered a renewed effort to "get bin Laden" before the election, a senior (career, not political) U.S. counter terrorism official says it's not true.

"This idea of a renewed effort assumes there has been a 'lull' in our pursuit of him," said the official. "There has been no 'lull.' We may have used different tactics, and our tactics may have changed, but our pursuit of him has not changed."

Asked if he would agree with a statement that the US still "doesnt have a clue" where bin Laden is located -- as a Western military analyst described the status of the search two months ago -- the official said, "I would agree that assessment."

That, of course, doesnt mean that things won't change tomorrow, but they haven't changed in seven years.

From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
NEW YORK – Palin made an unscheduled stop to Ground Zero and the World Trade Center memorials Thursday, and told reporters she agreed with President Bush's decision to fight terrorism through military action.

"I agree with the Bush Administration that we take the fight to them," she said outside the firehouse when asked if she would have conducted the war on terrorism differently. "We never again let them come onto our soil and try to destroy not only our democracy, but communities like the community of New York. Never again."

Palin also was non-committal about whether she would support Republican Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young, who are both seeking re-election amid ethics investigations.

"Ted Stevens trial started a couple days ago," she said. "We'll see where that goes." She later ignored a question on whether she would vote for them.

It was her first press availability with the reporters traveling with her in the four weeks since she was named McCain's running mate. Palin and the McCain campaign had garnered some bad press in recent days for shielding the vice presidential candidate from the media during her visits with world leaders in New York City.

Palin toured the Tribune WTC Visitor Center and was moved by the pictures and films on display, according to a pool report. She then visited a bronze wall honoring firefighters killed on 9/11 and spoke with local firefighters at Ladder Company 10, Engine Co. 10, which faces Ground Zero. She also went to the family viewing area, led by Lee Ielpi, president of the board of directors of the September 11th Families Association.

"I wish every American would come through here," Palin said. "I wish every world leader would come through here, and understand what it is that took place here and more importantly how America came together and united to commit to never allowing this to happen again."

Palin said she does not think US military action in Iraq and Afghanistan has inflamed Islamic extremists. "I think our presence in Iraq and Afghanistan will lead to further security of our nation, again, because the mission is to take the fight over there," she said. "Do not let them come over here and attempt again what they accomplished here, and that was some destruction, terrible destruction on that day. But since Sept. 11, Americans uniting and rebuilding and committing to never letting that happen again."

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
GREENSBURG, PA -- Joe Biden said this morning that McCain would not inspire the confidence of the nation at a time of economic crisis, at the same time praising Barack Obama for seeking a bipartisan approach to negotiations on a bailout package.

Referring to McCain's "epiphany" on the Wall Street meltdown last week, when he declared the economy in crisis after calling its fundamentals "sound,"  Biden said that no one can lead the nation with a tendency to "lurch so rapidly from one fundamental position to another."

"Ladies and gentlemen, you can't gain the confidence of the nation and you can't gain the confidence of the world when in fact you are not rooted and know exactly what you think," he said.

At the Pennsylvania event, Biden lauded the kind of leadership he said Obama showed by reaching out to McCain yesterday.

"In the midst of all this political blather that's going on, all the negative ads being heaped upon him, what did he do? He reached out," Biden told a few hundred in a working-class community east of Pittsburgh. "He showed leadership by suggesting that we come together."

RNC spokesperson Blair Latoff responded that McCain's timeout from the campaign to work on the bailout legislation represents the true leadership being shown between the rival tickets. "In times of crisis, Americans have always been able to bridge our divides and solve our problems but apparently Barack Obama's running mate sees it as an opportunity for unfiltered partisanship and political opportunism. John McCain suspended his campaign and is working with the nation's leaders to address this serious economic crisis and believes that it is more important to put his country before his political campaign." 

Today, Biden mentioned the scheduled meeting at the White House between the two presidential nominees, and outlined the principles Obama would seek to build any compromise plan around. The most popular among the Greensburg audience was an assurance that the American people "not be required to spend one single dime to reward Wall Street CEOs."

"Where I come from in Scranton and Wilmington, we just call that plain, simple fairness," he said. "If we cannot agree on those simple, basic rules, then it seems to me you have to question what the reason for the bailout is. Who are we bailing out?"

Biden also targeted the senior citizens in the audience, focusing especially on Social Security. He said that McCain was an ardent supporter of privatization, and asked what would have happened to the retirement security of people like his mother had Bush and McCain succeeded in putting Social Security money into the stock market.

"John even said that the way Social Security was funded was a, quote, an absolute disgrace," Biden said, claiming that meant McCain either doesn't support the program, or doesn't understand it. "When a president who understands and supports Social Security is in the White House, you're not going to have to worry, you're not going to have to worry that we're going to continue this onslaught on seniors."

There was an emotional moment at the top of the speech, where Biden acknowledged Pittsburgh Steelers owner Dan Rooney in the audience. He recalled the story of how in 1972, Rocky Bleier of the Steelers came to the hospital room to deliver autographed footballs to Biden's two sons, who were recovering from injuries sustained in the car crash that killed his first wife and infant daughter.

"They looked like they had lighted up like Christmas trees," he said, pausing twice to choke back tears. "I really apologize, I'm sorry," he said. "I shouldn't have tried to do this."

From NBC's John Yang
There was a prolonged discussion in White House Press Secretary Dana Perino's daily briefing about the genesis of today's White House meeting -- whether it's politically motivated and whether the deal is as dead as McCain says it is.

Perino acknowledged that the idea of the meeting came from McCain in his phone call to President Bush yesterday. "The President took a little time to think about that," Perino said, and staff called Barack Obama's campaign to see if he'd be available to fly to Washington. Told that Obama would be open to an invitation, Mr. Bush called the senator to ask him to the meeting.

The purpose of the meeting, Perino said, is to get everyone in the same room, on the same page and hash out the legislation. Isn't that what they're doing on the Hill? Well, yes, Perino acknowledged, but this will include the President. And what will he bring to the meeting? She couldn't say.

The greatest semantic pretzel was over Perino's statements that "we have a framework that we can try to close on" and that "we are driving to a conclusion" -- versus McCain's contention that the deal is dead. Perino wouldn't back away from her contention that a deal is close (though not imminent) and finally acknowledged that she didn't know where McCain was getting his information.

Is this all politics -- McCain declaring the deal dead so he can emerge from a White House meeting to declare that his insistence that the leaders and nominees gather in the Cabinet Room saved the day?

Perino was shocked -- SHOCKED! -- at the suggestion of politics. "We don't think this is a political event, we're not trying to make this a political event," she said.

All that was missing was the croupier handing Capt. Renault his winnings.

[Youtube:nM_A4Skusro]

From NBC's Carrie Dann
With the latest rash of polling showing Barack Obama winning the favor of voters concerned about the economy, the Illinois senator's campaign is up today with a 60-second ad that lists the Democratic nominee's economic goals. 

At the start of the ad, Obama also digs into the Bush administration policies that he says encouraged the nation's current financial distress. "Well, now we know the truth," he says. "Instead of prosperity trickling down, pain has trickled up."

The spot is running in "key targeted states."

In an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday, respondents gave Obama a 12 point advantage over McCain when asked which candidate they believed would improve the economy.

Script:
BARACK OBAMA: For eight years we've been told that the way to a stronger economy was to give huge tax breaks to corporations and the wealthiest. Cut oversight on Wall Street. And somehow all Americans would benefit. 
Well now we know the truth.
Instead of prosperity trickling down, pain has trickled up. We need to change direction. Now.
I'm Barack Obama. Here's what I'll do as president: End the Wall Street free for all with commonsense safeguards that put homeowners and struggling families first -- not corporate greed and CEO bonuses. Jumpstart our economy with a middle class tax cut, paid for by closing special interest group loopholes. Get serious about energy independence. A ten-year mission to create millions of good paying jobs by investing in made-in-America energy and infrastructure. You can read my whole plan to rebuild our economy on our website, Barackobama.com.
It's time to get our economy back on track and put the middle class first again. And that's why I approve this message.

 

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
NEW YORK -- With mixed signals coming out of Capitol Hill on the progress of negotiations over the bailout legislation, McCain addressed the Clinton Global Initiative this morning and laid out a bipartisan rationale for his return to Washington.

"I cannot carry on a campaign as though this dangerous situation had not occurred, or as though a solution were at hand, which it clearly is not," McCain said of the progress in Congress. "With so much on the line, for America and the world, the debate that matters most right now is taking place in the United States Capitol -- and I intend to join it. Senator Obama is doing the same. America should be proud of the bipartisanship that we are seeing."

Some reports indicate that Democrats and Republicans are on the verge of agreement on the legislation, but this morning McCain asserted that "it has become clear that no consensus has developed to support the Administration's proposal."

"I do not believe that the plan on the table will pass as it currently stands," he added, "And obviously we are running out of time."

McCain urged quick action on the solution to the financial meltdown, but also warned of the consequences of a rush to judgment.  "For the Congress, this is one of those moments in history when poor decisions, made in haste, could turn a crisis into a far-reaching disaster," he said. "If we do not act, credit will dry up, with grave consequences for workers and business across the American economy and beyond."

The GOP nominee also repeated his opposition to earmarks that some lawmakers might hope to tack on to the bailout legislation. Calling such a move "completely unacceptable" and "outrageous," McCain said that "frankly, members of Congress who would attempt such a thing are scarcely better than the most reckless operators on Wall Street."

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker (and Banking Committee member) had this to say in a statement responding to Bush's primetime speech last night:

"I would prefer that Congress stay in session to develop a thoughtful and measured response to our fiscal crisis, but we have been watching the credit markets closely, and unfortunately, it appears the markets are responding to an artificial line in the sand drawn by Secretary Paulson and Chairman Bernanke and are anticipating that we do something by this weekend. I believe the best, most prudent course is for Congress, at a minimum, to work through the weekend to get this right and we could still be done before the markets open on Monday." 

So, is this how skeptical Republicans convince themselves to climb aboard the compromise bailout?

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** Nine days later: Nine days after the public got a true sense of the urgency of this financial crisis, President Bush finally addressed the American people last night -- thanks mostly to the fact that the public (through Congress) was sending the message to the Administration and Hank Paulson that it didn't like this plan and didn't understand it. Last night's speech was a sobering one. It was the first time ever in Bush's presidency when he delivered bad economic news. It's not in his nature to talk down the economy, which is what made last night's speech so historic (and yet potentially ineffective). Will the public believe Bush's pleas on this? Of course, it's possible the audience for last night's speech wasn't the American people as much as it was the House and Senate Republican caucuses. Bush needed to actively engage his fellow party members in explaining why he -- himself a free marketer -- believes this to be the only answer. The one thing missing last night in his speech: the emphasis to the American people that this was a shared problem and the solution wasn't just money but potentially changing our own lifestyles.

*** McCain's only choice: As for McCain's campaign suspension and proposal to postpone the debate until this bailout plan is negotiated and passed, he had no choice but to do this. Yes, he's going to get criticized for making what may look like a VERY political decision. Obama partisans are going to mock him for wanting to duck a debate and wanting to stop his falling poll numbers in the face of what's been 10 bad days for his campaign. But McCain is the head of a Republican Party that is already viewed negatively by the American people. What price would McCain pay if members of his own party ended up being responsible for killing this bailout plan? While McCain likes to say he's never been awarded Mr. Congeniality in his dealings on Capitol Hill, there are two Republican caucuses whose future statuses as strong or weak minority parties depend on a strong McCain-Palin showing in November. Could McCain afford carrying the baggage of being the head of the party that 1) was led by Bush and 2) turned its back on a financial bailout plan that if not enacted could do things like bring about a recession even more rapidly?

*** More guerilla warfare: McCain's campaign has been remarkable in its ability to -- in the words of NBCs Tom Brokaw -- engage in guerilla political tactics, which allow him to win political battles that on paper he shouldn't be winning. And this debate gambit is the latest example of this (following his town hall challenge the day after Obama clinched the Dem nomination, and even his pick of Sarah Palin). But while McCain has proven adept at winning these battles, can he ultimately win the war? By the way, look for McCain today to declare victory with the Bush decision to bring together McCain and Obama at the White House and then agree to let the debates go on as planned. This does seem to be a game of political chicken. Obama so far has indicated he's not going to blink. Neither has the Commission. And neither has the University of Mississippi. Will McCain?

*** McCain's economic and Palin problems: Here's a political reason why McCain called to postpone the debate and essentially ask for a timeout in the campaign: The latest NBC/WSJ poll -- which has Obama leading overall by just two points, 48%-46% (Obama's up five among very high interest voters) -- shows Obama with a 12-point advantage over McCain in handling the economy. And a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll -- which also has Obama up two among registered voters and four among likelies -- finds Obama with a 14-point edge on the economy. In addition, Palin, who two weeks ago was seen as a shot in the arm for McCain, has now potentially turned into a liability. Per the NBC/WSJ poll, 49% say she's unqualified to be president if the need arises, versus just 40% who say she's qualified. (By comparison, 64% say Biden is qualified.) NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) says that when you add that to concerns about McCain's age (44% say they worry about McCain being able to serve for four years), that becomes a "lethal" problem for the McCain campaign. We've regularly asked a question in our poll about who is the riskier choice for president, Obama or McCain. Not surprisingly Obama has been viewed as the riskier choice by about 10-15 points. Has McCain now inserted his own risk into the campaign when you combine age and Palin's experience? By the way, one in four McCain-Palin voters believe she does not have the experience to be president.

*** Obama's Indie problem: The NBC/WSJ poll, however, also shows that Obama has an indie problem. McCain leads him here by 14 points, up six from earlier this month. Moreover, Obama has just a 39%-35% fav/unfav among independents, which is down considerably from his 48%-36% overall favorability score. And while voters say they identify with Obama's values and background by a 50%-44% margin, those numbers are essentially reversed among independents. Hart says that if Obama ends up losing the presidential election, you can attribute it to the indie problem -- particularly the values and background question. Just to let you know that these independents in the poll don't lean Republican, they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress by 14 points (43%-29%).

*** McCain's need for speed: McCain was always seen as having a good chance at appealing to indies, and with anger and frustration at the government and other institutions at an all-time high, it's possible McCain's benefiting from his "I'm mad as hell" attitude about government. CW says the more optimistic candidate usually wins election, but with a country tired of hearing all of the optimistic talk they got about the economy from the Bush Administration over the last four years, it may be they are looking for not just a straight-talking candidate, but one who channels their frustration. McCain's best political moments in his career are when he shows indignation. As Peggy Noonan said today on "Morning Joe," McCain's got two speeds, 0 and 60. And while calm, cool, collected isn't McCain, like a good fighter pilot, McCain has the need for speed and for needing to always be dealing with a crisis. Lucky for him, there appear to be a lot of crises ahead for the next president.

*** Versus Obama's cool: That said, don't miss yet ANOTHER very important number in the NBC/WSJ poll: A majority of voters agree that Obama could handle a military crisis well as president. Could it be his calm, cool demeanor that's been on display these last 10 days on the economy has helped on the leadership front overall when compared to McCain? Something to watch for in future polls. The New York Times' Gail Collins put it well this morning: "This election is turning into a Goldilocks story. One candidate's too hot, and one's too cool.

*** Tied in Michigan: The latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll shows McCain and Obama tied at 46% each in the battleground state of Michigan. Per Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker, McCain is leading in the traditionally GOP regions of Western and Northern Michigan -- but is also holding his own in the Detroit suburbs (Oakland County, Macomb County, and western Wayne County), which is cutting into Obama's margin in the Detroit Metro region. To win, Obama needs to run up a big margin in the Detroit Metro area, which means performing well in those suburbs. That said, a new CNN/Time poll has Obama up by five in Michigan among registered voters (51%-44%), and a new EPIC/MRA poll has Obama up 10 (48%-38%).

*** On the trail: McCain speaks at the Clinton Global Initiative in New York, then travels to Washington to meet with President Bush. Obama remains in Florida for debate prep, but addresses the Clinton Global Initiative via satellite and then heads to DC to meet with Bush and congressional leaders. Palin attends the Clinton Global Initiative. And Biden is in Pennsylvania, stumping in Greensburg and Wilkes-Barre. 

Countdown to the first presidential debate: 1 day
Countdown to the vice presidential debate: 9 days
Countdown to the second presidential debate 12 days
Countdown to the third presidential debate: 20 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 40 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 117 days
 
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The Washington Post's Dan Balz says McCain's decision to suspend his campaign and seek to postpone Friday's debate "may be among the biggest of his political life. The Republican presidential nominee is hoping that his abrupt decision … will be seen as the kind of country-first, bipartisan leadership he believes Americans want. What he risks, if things don't go as he hopes, is a judgment by voters that his move was a reckless act by an impetuous and struggling politician that hardened partisan lines in Washington at just the wrong moment and complicated efforts to deal with the biggest financial crisis in more than half a century."

The New York Times writes that McCain's "decision seeking to postpone the first debate was yet another unpredictable, daring step taken by his campaign over the last month: its selection of Gov. Sarah Palin as a vice-presidential candidate shook up the race in late August, and days later the campaign stripped down the first day of the Republican National Convention because of the threat of Hurricane Gustav. In the midst of the confusion, officials with the Commission on Presidential Debates said that they were moving forward with the debate and that talks with the McCain campaign throughout the day had not persuaded them on Mr. McCain's position. 'We believe the public will be well served by having all of the debates go forward as scheduled,' the commission said."

The Boston Globe calls McCain's move in asking for the debate to be delayed "a high-wire political gambit." "McCain's move was another extraordinary twist in a race full of extraordinary twists. It reflects not only the deep concerns of Republican and Democratic leaders about the grave state of the economy, but also the shifting dynamics in a presidential contest that polls suggest has swung in Obama's favor. Voters' focus on the Wall Street crisis and the economy -- long an advantage for Obama -- has helped give him an edge this week nationally and in key battleground states."

The Los Angeles Times: "McCain's decision to up the ante was an audacious gambit to show leadership in a time of crisis. It drew the same kind of attention McCain received when he picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate and, earlier, when he retooled himself as an ally of oil drilling as gas prices soared."
 
The LA Times also offers a timeline of the Obama/McCain phone tag.  When Obama called his opponent at 8:30 am yesterday, "McCain was meeting with economic advisors, including former EBay Chief Executive Meg Whitman and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Obama left a message with his phone number. Later in the morning, Obama spent several hours in debate preparation at his hotel in Clearwater -- keeping a phone with him in case his opponent called.  At 2:30 p.m., as Obama's motorcade left a rally near Clearwater, McCain returned the call, and the two spoke for five minutes (according to Obama aides) or 10 minutes (according to McCain aides)."

Per Politico, "A McCain aide [said] that the campaign is proposing to the Presidential Debate Commission and the Obama camp that if there's no bailout deal by Friday, the first presidential debate should take the place of the vice presidential debate, currently scheduled for October 2 in St. Louis. Under this scenario, the vice presidential debate would be rescheduled for a date yet to be determined, and take place in Oxford, Miss., where the first presidential debate is currently slated to be held."

The Boston Globe's editorial board calls it a "stunt." "[A]ltering the debate schedule would hardly serve voters. If anything, debates are most valuable at times of national crisis, because voters need to hear candidates highlight their policy differences… And McCain's initial response to the mess -- his odd claim that the fundamentals of the economy are strong -- made him look out of touch. But if he now thinks the problem can be tidied up during a short break from the campaign trail, he needs some new economic advisers. McCain has already brought discredit upon his campaign by shielding running mate Sarah Palin from hostile questions. This impulsive new stunt makes him appear unsteady and underprepared, too. America can work through a financial crisis and handle a campaign at the same time. In politics as on Broadway, the show must go on."

The New York Daily News on McCain's move: "Bold… or Bonkers?"

A new LA Times/Bloomberg poll shows Obama ahead of McCain 49%-45% nationally among likely voters. That advantage shrinks to 46-44 among registered voters, giving the Illinois senator a lead comparable to the paper's last poll in August.  The economy looms large, with voters preferring Obama on economic issues by a rate of 46% to 32%. He also has a 15-point advantage for voters evaluating his ability to handle rising gas prices, and a 30-point lead on healthcare. But McCain has gained major ground among independents, swinging from an 11-point deficit among the group in August to a 15-point lead in the latest poll.

MoveOn has a new TV ad hitting McCain on the economy.

The Boston Globe: "While Bush's remarks were addressed to the American people, his immediate target was 435 US representatives and 100 senators, including many members of his own party who have responded with skepticism or outright anger to his call for what many have called a massive bailout of Wall Street." More: "A vote could come within days. Bush, a staunch believer in free markets, acknowledged that he was going against his own philosophy in urging a massive government intervention in the financial industry. But he said the situation had grown so dire, and the banking regulations so outdated, that he had no choice."

The New York Times: "Mr. Bush's televised address, and his extraordinary offer to bring together Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, and Senator John McCain, the Republican, just weeks before the election underscored a growing sense of urgency on the part of the administration that Congress must act to avert an economic collapse. It was the first time in Mr. Bush's presidency that he delivered a prime-time speech devoted exclusively to the economy. It came at a time when deep public unease about shaky financial markets and the demise of Wall Street icons such as Lehman Brothers has been coupled with skepticism and anger directed at a government bailout that could become the most expensive in American history."

More: "Mr. Bush used his speech to signal that he was willing to address lawmakers' concerns, including fears that tax dollars will be used to pay Wall Street executives and that the plan would put too much authority in the hands of the Treasury secretary without sufficient oversight. 'Any rescue plan should also be designed to ensure that taxpayers are protected,' Mr. Bush said. 'It should welcome the participation of financial institutions, large and small. It should make certain that failed executives do not receive a windfall from your tax dollars. It should establish a bipartisan board to oversee the plan's implementation. And it should be enacted as soon as possible.'"

Obama spokesman Bill Burton issued this statement. "While Sen. Obama believed that the Administration's initial proposal was flawed and unacceptable to the American taxpayer, he was heartened tonight that the President seemed to be moving in the direction of the principles that Sen. Obama outlined over the last week, including limits on CEO pay, independent oversight, and taxpayer protection. He was also encouraged that the President suggested strengthening an outdated regulatory structure that led to this crisis, something that Senator Obama specifically proposed last March."

Unless we missed it, we didn't see a statement from McCain or his campaign regarding Bush's speech.

Per the Los Angeles Times, "Democrats had been waiting for Bush to speak out more prominently for the bailout plan and to demand that GOP lawmakers support it. They have argued that they should not have to take the political risk of passing the wildly unpopular measure without Republicans joining in, especially since they blame lax oversight by the administration and GOP advocacy of deregulation for causing the crisis."

New numbers from CNN/Time/Opinion Research show Obama up 51% to 45% among registered voters in Colorado, up from a 5-point deficit for the Illinois senator last month. The Democratic nominee bests McCain in Michigan by 51% to 44% percent among registered voters. And in Pennsylvania, he jumped to a nine point lead, 52% to McCain's 43%.

With Obama posting widened leads in notable battleground states, Politico's Mike Allen writes that "State by state, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill). is showing signs of breaking open a presidential race that looked deadlocked through much of September… This is the first time that one of the candidates has dominated state polls in the most closely contested battlegrounds."

COLORADO: Independent groups are shoveling money into Colorado's contested Senate race at an unprecedented rate. "Leave out the party committee spending, and independent groups allied to the GOP have spent $10.4 million in Colorado, while just $2.6 million in New Hampshire and $2.4 million in Minnesota, the two runners-up, data provided by Democratic media buyers show. (Attack groups supporting Democrats, by comparison, have spent $3.4 million in Colorado, $1.6 million in Minnesota, and $1.2 million in New Hampshire.)"

The Rocky Mountain News reports on yet another voter registration controversy: "Allegations of fraudulent voter registrations in El Paso County have prompted the state Republican Party to begin looking into nearly 500 statewide addresses where 10 or more people have registered. Party volunteers have started checking the list of residences, homeless shelters, nursing homes, rehab centers and college dormitories to confirm registrations are legitimate."
  
FLORIDA: Another registration-is-overwhelming-elections-boards story out of Florida. The state elections division received 25,000 new registrations in one day this week. 
 
IOWA: Absentee voting begins today in the Hawkeye State. "The general election turnout could reach between 76 percent and 80 percent of Iowa's 2.1 million registered voters, [Secretary of State Michael] Mauro predicted. The record turnout in Iowa was 80.5 percent in 1992 when Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot." 
 
MICHIGAN: Numbers from a new Michigan poll from Selzer & Co.via the Detroit Free Press: "As Congress wrangles over an expensive Wall Street bailout, 76% of likely Michigan voters say the U.S. economy already is in either a recession or a depression -- including one in four who say the nation is in a depression." More: "Michigan voters are split on whether the government should help the nation's financial institutions, on the heels of the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers. Of those surveyed, 43% said the government needs to step in, while 45% said a bailout would only encourage the greed and risk-taking that led to the financial meltdown."
 
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Gov. Bill Richardson stumped for Obama in the Granite State earlier this week. The New Mexico governor said that while McCain used to be a maverick, "to get the Republican nomination, he's compromised. He's lost his 'maverickness.'"
 
Your fun ballot fact of the day: "For the first time in 110 years, New Hampshire voters will not be able to make one mark on the ballot to vote a straight ticket for one party or the other."  
 
OHIO: Calls are pouring into Senator Sherrod Brown's office from constituents outraged about the bailout plan.

"One former Fannie Mae executive downplayed the McCain connection in the decision to retain Davis' firm. 'Rick's broader experience as a GOP operative is what drew people to hire him,' said William R. Maloni, Fannie Mae's former chief lobbyist and a Democrat. McCain wasn't on the banking committee and wasn't particularly influential on such issues, he noted. 'The McCain relationship was icing on the cake.'"

The AP's headline: "Who's running Alaska with Palin on stump?" Apparently, the McCain campaign. "The McCain campaign is speaking for the Alaska state government these days, especially when it wants to ensure that nothing embarrassing about Gov. Sarah Palin emerges before Election Day… Even Palin's lieutenant governor, Sean Parnell, said keeping in touch has been difficult. And since hackers broke into Palin's Yahoo e-mail account last week, he said, it has dropped off entirely… In Palin's absence, messages left with the governor's office are usually returned by the McCain campaign. A recent request for information was answered by a governor's spokesman with a sad smile and a shake of the head. Even a message left on the cell phone of a hometown friend of Palin was returned by a McCain campaign staffer."

"A grainy YouTube video surfaced Wednesday showing Sarah Palin being blessed in her hometown church three years ago by a Kenyan pastor who prayed for her protection from 'witchcraft' as she prepared to seek higher office. The video shows Palin standing before Bishop Thomas Muthee in the pulpit of the Wasilla Assembly of God church, holding her hands open as he asked Jesus Christ to keep her safe from 'every form of witchcraft.' 'Come on, talk to God about this woman. We declare, save her from Satan,' Muthee said as two attendants placed their hands on Palin's shoulders. 'Make her way my God. Bring finances her way even for the campaign in the name of Jesus. ... Use her to turn this nation the other way around.'"

"Palin said Wednesday that the United States could be headed for another Great Depression if Congress doesn't act on the financial crisis. Palin made the comment in an interview with 'CBS Evening News' anchor Katie Couric while visiting New York to meet foreign leaders for the first time in her political career. As Palin sought to establish her credentials in world affairs, first lady Laura Bush said Palin lacked sufficient foreign policy experience but was 'a quick study.' Recent surveys have shown that Palin's popularity, while still strong, has begun to fade."

Don't miss this exchange between Couric and Palin…
COURIC: You've said, quote, "John McCain will reform the way Wall Street does business." Other than supporting stricter regulations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac two years ago, can you give us any more example of his leading the charge for more oversight?
PALIN: I think that the example that you just cited, with his warnings two years ago about Fannie and Freddie -- that, that's paramount. That's more than a heck of a lot of other senators and representatives did for us.
COURIC: But he's been in Congress for 26 years. He's been chairman of the powerful Commerce Committee. And he has almost always sided with less regulation, not more.
PALIN: He's also known as the maverick though. Taking shots from his own party, and certainly taking shots from the other party. Trying to get people to understand what he's been talking about--the need to reform government.
COURIC: I'm just going to ask you one more time, not to belabor the point. Specific examples in his 26 years of pushing for more regulation?
PALIN: I'll try to find you some and I'll bring them to you. 

Awkwwward… " 'Now I know why the whole of America is crazy about you,' gushed President Asif Ali Zardari, 53. He called her 'gorgeous.' … A handler from Zardari's entourage then told the two politicians to keep shaking hands for the cameras. 'If he's insisting, I might hug,' Zardari quipped. Palin again smiled politely."