From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
"I am interested in serving in the United States Senate and that interest trumps any consideration of serving as a vice president," Rhode Island Democrat Reed said in an interview with the Providence Journal this afternoon.

Reed was asked: "If you were offered this position you would decline, is that correct?"

"Yeah," he answered, "but I frankly I don't expect to be offered the position."

From NBC's Mark Murray
In an interview on CNN today -- which the DNC is passing around -- McCain said that withdrawal from Iraq in 16 months is "a pretty good timetable."

That answer came when McCain was asked about Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki's earlier claim to Der Spiegel that Obama's 16-month plan "would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes."

Of course, McCain did stress that such a withdrawal would "have to be based on conditions on the ground." But calling 16 months a "good timetable" is something McCain hasn't said before -- and probably never would have said a week ago.

[Youtube:5mvk_NV8-L4]

The transcript:
BLITZER: What if Maliki persists? You're president and he says he wants US troops out and he wants them out, let's say in a year or two years or 16 months or whatever. What do you do? Do you listen to the prime minister? 

MCCAIN: He won't. He won't. He won't. Because it has to be condition-based.

BLITZER: How do you know?

MCCAIN: Because I know him. And I know him very well. And I know the other leaders. And I know -- I've been there eight times, as you know. I know them very, very well.

BLITZER: So why do you think he said that 16 months is basically a pretty good timetable? 

MCCAIN: He said it's a pretty good timetable based on conditions on the ground. I think it's a pretty good timetable, as we should -- or horizons for withdrawal. But they have to be based on conditions on the ground. 

From NBC's Jim Miklaszewski
In his official capacity as a sitting US senator, Obama has every right to stay in touch with America's men and women in uniform. According to Pentagon officials, the problem was that Obama's request to visit Landstuhl included two members of his campaign staff -- retired Major General Jonathan S. Gration and Jeff Kiernan. US military officials in Germany informed the campaign the two political operatives would not be permitted on base.

Pentagon officials say Gration was the campaign's point of contact at Landstuhl in arranging Obama's visit and "got torqued" when he was told he would not be permitted to join Obama. It was Gration who later suggested to reporters that the Pentagon short-circuited Obama's visit.

Are there some in the Pentagon or military resentful because Gration has climbed on board the Obama campaign? Did Gration overreact? As a former policy director for the US European Command, he would surely be disappointed -- if not offended -- by being excluded from the visit. It's also been my experience that even retired generals do not want to hear the word "no."

Whatever the reason, Obama and the troops he would have visited have both missed a unique and historic opportunity. According to one Army lieutenant colonel, "Everyone was excited about Obama's visit. It's a shame."

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
DENVER, CO -- McCain gave a speech here today at the American GI Forum National Convention that served as a wide-ranging defense of his position on the Iraq war -- as well as a biting condemnation of Obama's war policy.

"Sen. Obama and I also faced a decision, which amounted to a real-time test for a future commander-in-chief," McCain said of the 2007 debate over the surge. "America passed that test. I believe that my judgment passed that test. And I believe that Sen. Obama's failed."

According to McCain, American voters should look at how the two candidates' handled that decision and use that to make their decisions in November. "Because of the choice we made and all the surge has accomplished, the time will soon come when our troops can come home," he said.

"But we face another choice today. We can withdraw when we have secured the peace and the gains we have sacrificed so much to achieve are safe. Or we can follow Sen. Obama's unconditional withdrawal and risk losing the peace even if that results in spreading violence and a third Iraq war. Sen. Obama has suggested he would consider sending troops back if that happened. When I bring them home in victory and with honor, they are staying home."

In response to McCain's remarks, the Obama campaign released this statement from former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey, who like McCain is a Vietnam vet. "As is often the case in politics, the most important questions do not get debated while the most trivial ones are pushed front and center. Such is the case with the current attacks by Sen. McCain's supporters purporting that Sen. Obama's failure to support the surge demonstrates he has been wrong on this important foreign policy question," Kerrey said.

"Assessing all facts available to us today, Sen. Obama's judgment six years ago looks a whole lot better today than either Sen. McCain's or mine was back then.
 
McCain's declaration last week that the surge has succeeded has led him to become increasingly optimistic about future troop withdrawals, meaning that he is now emphasizing the criteria for such withdrawal as the major distinction between himself and his opponent. Today, he predicted that American "forces will be out of regular combat operations and dramatically reduced in number during the term of the next president of the United States," but McCain pressed that this will only happen if such withdrawals are predicated on commanders.

While Obama is traveling overseas -- doing his best to appear ready for the White House -- McCain used his speech today to try argue that Obama's positions on the war are far from presidential: "Sen. Obama said just this week that even knowing what he knows today that he would still, still would have opposed the surge. In retrospect, given the opportunity to choose between failure and success, he chose failure. I cannot conceive of a commander-in-chief making that choice."

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
PARIS -- Obama and French President Nicolas Sarkozy greeted one another in front of a crush of photographers, camera crews, and reporters here at the Elysee Palace today before meeting for about an hour to discuss issues ranging from Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran to climate change and peace in the Middle East.

The visit marked the fourth day of a five-country swing through the Middle East and Europe meant to burnish Obama's foreign policy credentials.

In the press conference after their meeting, the two men appeared comfortable, cracking jokes before making statements about the importance of a strong relationship between the United States and France and its other European allies.

Obama spent several minutes talking about Iran, an issue he stressed throughout a press conference in Sderot, Israel earlier in the week. He spoke of the need for the United States and Europe to be partners in negotiating with the country about its nuclear program, saying a nuclear-armed Iran would pose a grave threat and could embolden terrorists and spark a dangerous arm race in the Middle East.

"I applaud France's current role in the E.U. three-plus-three efforts to use strong diplomacy to end this threat," he said. "It's important as we move forward for the United States and our European allies to remain full partners in this effort."

Obama went on to hail the decision to send Undersecretary of State William Burns, whom he called "an outstanding diplomat" to participate in talks with Iran.

As he did in Jordan on Tuesday, the senator said there was nothing that he had seen over the course of his travels these past several days that has caused him to change his "basic strategic assessment" of America's security and foreign policy challenges, mentioning Afghanistan and Iraq specifically. He has called for more troops in the former and a phased redeployment of troops from the latter.

Obama declined to say how many additional troops he wants France, Germany, and Great Britain to send to Afghanistan, while praising Sarkozy for his willingness to send more troops. And he did not criticize Bush when asked directly to comment on the Administration. Both non-answers seemed in line with a statement he and his advisers have made repeatedly before and during this trip, which is that America has one president at a time and that he did not intend to negotiate or make policy during his tour.

"What I can say affirmatively is that an effective U.S. foreign policy will be based on our ability not only to project power, but also to listen and to build consensus," he said. "And the goal of an Obama Administration in foreign policy would be obviously to act on behalf of the interests and the security of the United States, but also to listen carefully enough to our allies that we understand their interests, as well, and we try to find ways that we can work together to meet common goals."

Sarkozy declined to give a direct endorsement of Obama when asked whether he was endorsing the Illinois senator.

But he spoke glowingly of the senator and noted that many people in Europe came from different backgrounds, and so "Barack Obama's adventure is an adventure that rings true in the hearts and mind of the French and of Europeans."

There was an odd moment early on in the Q-and-A, when Sarkozy was asked about an incident several years ago when, as interior minister, he called rioting blacks in a poor French neighborhood "scum."

The roughly 40-minute presser was conducted in English and French with simultaneous translation.

From NBC's Mark Murray and Adam Verdugo
According to Karl Rove's new electoral map, Obama is leading McCain, 272-183 -- with 83 electoral votes in the toss-up category.

Note that the map is as of July 23, so it doesn't take into account the recent Quinnipiac polling in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. But per this map -- right now -- Obama could lose every toss-up state (Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, Nevada) and still win the presidential election.

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones and NBC's Jim Miklaszewski and Courtney Kube
ON PLANE EN ROUTE BERLIN TO PARIS -- In a briefing aboard the flight to Paris today, Robert Gibbs, a senior strategist for the Obama campaign, came to the back of the plane at least three separate times to explain to reporters that the decision to cancel the senator's trip to Ramstein and Landstuhl came after word from the Pentagon that it would violate Defense Department regulations.

The impromptu briefing stemmed from confusion about two statements put out by the campaign -- one from Gibbs and the other from Gen. Scott Gration -- about the cancellation. Gibbs' statement had not mentioned the discussion with the Pentagon, while Gration's did.

"The statement that I sent out and the statement that Gen. Gration sent out are consistent in that what Gen. Gration learned from the Pentagon that the trip to Ramstein and Landstuhl will be viewed as a campaign stop," Gibbs said. "The decision that Sen. Obama made with that information was that we would not put our warriors in the position of being involved in a campaign stop. Therefore, he made the decision not to make the stop."

Gibbs explained it was the use of the campaign plane and staffers that would have violated the rules. "He could go as a United States senator, but it was pretty clear from the guidance that we received from the Pentagon that the trip would be viewed as a campaign stop," he said. "Given the information that we had received, Sen. Obama made the decision that we were not gonna have wounded men and women become involved in a campaign event or what would be perceived as a campaign event."

He said campaign was aware that Obama would be criticized either way -- for going or for canceling -- by his rivals and he reminded reporters that Obama quietly visited wounded troops at Walter Reed a few weeks ago and did it quietly.

The view from the Pentagon
Did the Pentagon discourage Obama from visiting Landstuhl? "No," says Pentagon spokesperson Bryan Whitman.

Did the Pentagon tell Senator Obama that it was inappropriate for him to visit because he is on a campaign trip? "No. That's inaccurate," Whitman said.

Was Obama's Senate office told that he and his Senate staff could visit the facility? "Absolutely."

"As a sitting United States senator, Obama obviously has an official interest in the well being of our service members and how the wounded are being treated," Whitman said, adding:"He is welcome to visit a military medical center any time that he wants to. As you all know, we do have certain policy guidelines for political campaigns and elections and what is appropriate and what's not appropriate in those situations," Whitman said. "The Pentagon did not tell the senator that he could not visit Landstuhl."

"If you are both a sitting senator and a political candidate when you are doing things like a visit to Landstuhl, you need to do it in your capacity as a sitting senator or you have to do it with the restrictions that apply," Whitman added. Those restrictions include the law that campaign events may not be conducted on a military installation. 

From NBC's Jim Miklaszewski
Obama made phone calls to wounded soldiers at Landstuhl Germany this morning, in lieu of a personal visit to the forces that was canceled by the Obama campaign.

Obama was expected to speak to a number of soldiers individually. 

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The turning point? So was this week a turning point in the presidential race? The Obama campaign certainly believes it was, and that this will be the moment that Obama grabs the lead for good. If McCain never catches up at this point, his campaign's actions this week (its blistering criticism of Obama and the media, the visuals it picked, its body language, its VP games) will get second-guessed for months. We know this was a significant week; the question is was it enough to erase the doubts voters have with Obama about his ability to be commander-in-chief? But just asking: Did this week tell us more about Obama or McCain? Watching McCain chasing the news cycle and his inability to not let Obama get under his skin -- and the campaign's -- suggests that they could be reactive from this day forward. Why, for instance, did the campaign insist on the equal treatment (see network interviews) this week and not simply attempt to create its own week of coverage from the nets? They were second fiddle all week, and seemed to almost demand being highlighted in that way.

VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel debates: Where is Barack Obama weak politically and how effectively has the McCain campaign been capitalizing on those weaknesses?

*** This race is McCain's to win, too: Can the McCain camp win by simply hoping for an Obama slip-up or by reacting faster and faster? Yesterday in First Read, we noted that NBC/WSJ pollster Peter Hart said this election was Obama's to win. But isn't that also true for McCain? McCain can't simply hope Obama loses this election or fails to adjust his campaign sail enough to capture the strong Democratic wind. Yesterday, actually, McCain finally seemed comfortable being the broccoli candidate -- embracing his role as the serious guy juxtaposed to the rock star opponent. Will the campaign around him have the patience to accept McCain's "keep on keeping on" promise he made to NBC's Kelly O'Donnell?

*** VP's coming? One of these days the McCain campaign won't be "crying VP" and will actually announce his pick. Today's Washington Post has a defensive "the pick could be coming any day now" story. "Anxious to counter the blanket media coverage that has followed Sen. Barack Obama on his overseas journey, Sen. John McCain is weighing whether to announce his running mate in the coming weeks before the spotlight shifts to China and the opening of the Olympic Games next month. 'He's in a position to make [the decision] on short notice if he wanted to,' said McCain's chief strategist Charlie Black. Bottom line: The media is being put on notice that the pick could come at any time, with the campaign hinting big time that McCain's going to make the pick before the Olympics. As for Obama's timing, considering how the campaign likes to let big events sink in, it seems highly unlikely they'll step on their own post-trip bounce (if they believe they'll be getting one) by announcing the VP next week. That leaves just one week before the Olympics if next week is indeed out.

*** About that Landstuhl visit: Perhaps the sole bump the Obama campaign hit this week was the minor controversy that erupted when Obama's campaign decided to skip a visit to Landstuhl to meet with injured US soldiers. The Obama camp put out two statements, the first from retired Gen. Scott Gration: "Sen. Obama had hoped to and had every intention of visiting our troops to express his appreciation and gratitude for their service to our country. We learned from the Pentagon last night that the visit would be viewed instead as a campaign event. Sen. Obama did not want to have a trip to see our wounded warriors perceived as a campaign event when his visit was to show his appreciation for our troops and decided instead not to go." The other was from strategist Robert Gibbs: "The senator decided out of respect for these servicemen and women that it would be inappropriate to make a stop to visit troops at a U.S. military facility as part of a trip funded by the campaign."

*** The rules: NBC's Pentagon correspondent Jim Miklaszewski breaks down the rules for these kind of visits: "Political candidates, including the president, are not permitted to use military facilities as a campaign backdrop or anything that could be perceived as being part of a political campaign. Now, of course, we know those lines can be blurred in the president for example has some official purpose for appearing at a military installation. As a member of the Armed Service Committee John McCain could also have a legitimate reason for visiting a military base and attracting media coverage, but it hasn't happened and I think both sides would take a serious look at the implications. The other issue is concern over exploitation of the wounded, for any reason. When the president, the Defense secretary, or any member of Congress visit the wounded at a military hospital the media are not invited to cover the event." Bottom line from us: The Obama campaign was being overly cautious, worried about the exploitation factor. (The real cynic might believe Obama realized he couldn't bring cameras so THAT's why he canceled). The McCain campaign decided to hit him -- and probably would have done it either way. It was a tiny press victory for McCain in a sea of disasters for the week.

*** Meet Tim Kaine: Tim Kaine is yet another Harvard law grad in those up for consideration for VP this cycle… While he eventually got his degree from Harvard law, Kaine -- a devout Catholic -- left midway through to embark on a nine-month Jesuit mission in Honduras, where he taught welding and carpentry to teenagers… He speaks fluent Spanish… Plays harmonica, sings in the church choir, and apparently likes Charlie Parker-era jazz… Kaine's father-in-law was Virginia's first Republican governor in the 20th century… He and Obama are close; Obama campaigned for Kaine during his governor's race… Like Obama, Kaine was a civil-rights attorney before going into politics… While Kaine is from the key battleground of Virginia, he isn't as popular in the GOP-leaning southwest part of the state as Mark Warner is.

VIDEO: President Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have agreed to pursue a "general time horizon" for withdrawal from Iraq, even as Maliki announces support for Barack Obama's proposal. NBC's Patty Culhane reports.

*** Bush's shifts: Because of the presidential contest -- which is sucking the air out of most other news -- we haven't paid much attention as we should to all the significant policy shifts coming from Bush Administration. They're stunning, in fact. The "time horizon" for troop withdrawal from Iraq. Sending envoys to both Iran and North Korea. Just asking: Would the Republican Party and McCain be in a better position heading into this election had Bush announced these changes two years ago, when he still captured the public's attention?

*** On the trail: McCain is in Colorado, speaking to the GI Forum Convention in Denver and then heading to Aspen to meet with the Dalai Lama. (The Lama is already a big hitter, no telling what the thin air of Colorado will do for the Lama's driving abilities.) Obama, meanwhile, flies from Berlin to Paris -- where he chats with President Nicolas Sarkozy -- before heading to London.
 
Countdown to Dem convention: 31 days
Countdown to GOP convention: 38 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 102 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 179 days
 
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The Washington Post: "Anxious to counter the blanket media coverage that has followed Sen. Barack Obama on his overseas journey, Sen. John McCain is weighing whether to announce his running mate in the coming weeks before the spotlight shifts to China and the opening of the Olympic Games next month. "He's in a position to make [the decision] on short notice if he wanted to," said Charles R. Black Jr., one of McCain's top political advisers."

VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd takes a look at today's political headlines including the focus on who John McCain and Barack Obama will pick as their running mates.

More: "Many Republicans say the traditional time frame for an announcement -- the days leading up to the GOP convention -- is not practical this year, because the Democratic convention ends so soon before the Republican gathering. It's unlikely, they said, that McCain would announce his pick the day after Obama gives his convention speech. And several McCain aides said they oppose the idea of making a vice presidential announcement during the Olympics. 'It's not that it wouldn't get covered. But if you are looking for a calm sea and no waves . . . you don't do it during the Olympics,' said one senior Republican adviser."

"We don't know when some breakthrough performance will happen," the adviser said. "All sorts of news can come. . . . What if there's some sort of human rights protest?"

The Wall Street Journal looks at Bobby Jindal's conversion to Catholicism.

More compiled by NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli…
Ken Khachigian thinks the veepstakes needs to be "put in perspective." "In a presidential campaign, there are only a handful of occasions when a running mate has news value: the day of the announcement and the few days following; the nominee's convention speech debut; the joint kickoff rally; and the televised debate with the counterpart running mate." 
 
The LA Times has a long pros/cons list.

REPUBLICANS: Asked by Kelly O'Donnell yesterday if he knew where he wanted to go with the pick, he said: "Sure, sure."
 
Is this another weekend at Sedona for some veep wannabes? 
 
If Minnesota really is tightening, RealClear Politics notes, Tim Pawlenty's stock could be rising. "Polls have shown that Pawlenty doesn't have the kind of pull to close a 10-point gap. A two-point gap, however, is a different story." Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) was apparently in Michigan again Thursday, where he of course "sidestepped" VP questions. "I like my day job," Pawlenty said. 

Rob Portman played a good surrogate with McCain yesterday. "Sen. McCain is talking about kitchen-table issues here, while Sen. Obama is having a political rally in Berlin," he said.

DEMOCRATS: Ken Bode thinks it's gonna be Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN). "In selecting Bayh, Obama will reach into the more conservative caucus of Democratic senators, adding the unifying effect of picking someone who supported his main opponent, Hillary Clinton. The pundits will undoubtedly say that Bayh is a white-bread choice, lacking in charisma. But charisma is hardly a problem for the Obama ticket, and during the Indiana primary Bayh demonstrated surprising political clout."  
 
Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE) said despite his harsh words for McCain, "I fully expect to be in the private sector next year. I don't expect to be in anybody's administration."

McCain meets with the Dalai Lama today in Colorado.

And with that visit, here's a classic from Caddyshack (hat tip to NBC's Bill Hatfield):

Check out this admission in Charles Krauthammer's lead: "In a stunning upset, Barack Obama this week won the Iraq primary."

The New York Times on McCain's tough week: "Campaign advisers to Mr. McCain say that the mood is not good at headquarters in Arlington, Va., and that the week got off to a bad start when Mr. McCain was photographed in a golf cart with the 84-year-old former President George Bush in the resort town of Kennebunkport, Me. It was the same day that pictures of Mr. Obama in sleek sunglasses alongside Gen. David H. Petraeus in a helicopter in Iraq were beamed all over the world."

VIDEO: More of Sen. John McCain's interview with NBC's Kelly O'Donnell.

"But Mark Salter, one of Mr. McCain's closest advisers, said Thursday over his own bratwurst lunch that he, for one, was not alarmed, and that Mr. McCain had spent the week in battleground states meeting with people who actually vote in American elections. 'I think he's getting his message out — go look at some of the local press and the local TV packages,' Mr. Salter said. "It's John McCain on energy and the economy."

The DNC puts out this memo on McCain's week: "Another week of bad news, bad reviews and campaign chaos for the McCain campaign.  The only change: the campaign's increasingly desperate response. In what has become a recurring theme, McCain's week was dominated by foreign policy gaffes, misleading attacks, terrible reviews and new polls showing him lagging far behind among key groups of voters. Instead of addressing those challenges, the McCain campaign chose to lash out at the media and launch desperate new attacks. Despite starting his general election campaign by pledging 'to conduct a respectful campaign' and run 'the most positive kind of campaign,' McCain has resorted to the kind of negative attacks that would make even Karl Rove blush—capped off with McCain himself questioning Senator Obama's patriotism."

The RNC responds with its own memo: "Despite the most challenging environment for Republicans in years and an overwhelming advantage in attention paid by the media, Barack Obama remains unable to open the lead against John McCain that many pundits predicted."

The Boston Globe's Ellen Goodman draws the Vietnam comparison: Gary Hart once said, 'In a way, John is refighting the Vietnam War.' For a long time, the former prisoner of war has believed that Vietnam should have, could have had a different ending. Americans lost the war because they lost their will. He's thought more about the sorry last chapter of that war than its foolish beginning. So, too, his attention on Iraq has been less on the war's origin than on some undefined victorious conclusion. McCain jumped the shark when he accused Obama of wanting to win an election even if it meant losing a war. But even before that intemperate charge, he said something equally damning: 'The fact is, if we had done what Senator Obama wanted to do, we would have lost.' But what if 'we had done what Obama wanted to do' in 2002, when he was a lowly state senator and an opponent of invasion? We wouldn't have roared into this disaster."

The Washington Post: "Addressing a huge throng in the middle of this once-divided city, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Thursday implored Americans and Europeans to renew the partnership that once defeated communism to address 21st-century threats that he said put the security of all nations at risk."

The Boston Globe: "The Illinois Democrat spoke before an early-evening crowd that police estimated at more than 200,000, larger than any he has mustered in the United States. The overseas gathering in the midst of a presidential campaign was seemingly without precedent in American history."

VIDEO: Newsweek's Richard Wolffe, who was in Berlin for Barack Obama's speech, discusses how well it was received in Germany and how the tone will likely be perceived at home.

The New York Times: "The German police estimated that more than 200,000 people came to hear him speak from the base of the Victory Column in the Tiergarten, a sprawling park in the center of the city. Berliners waved American flags — provided by the campaign — throughout the address, offering precisely the visual message that Mr. Obama's aides wanted to beam back home: a candidate who could restore the world's faith in strong American leadership and idealism."

The New York Times also has this analysis: "Obama, Vague on Issues, Pleases Crowd in Europe."

Der Spiegel: "[A]n estimated 200,000-strong crowd finally got to see the candidate in the flesh. And it seemed as if the prominent guest wanted to make amends for the day's game of hide and seek. It was as if four different Obamas made an appearance at Berlin's Victory Column -- in the space of less than 30 minutes...
 
"It began with the soft and slow Obama. ... And then he elegantly turned to the theme of Berlin. ... And then suddenly we had Obama No. 2, the trans-Atlantic bridge builder. ... That was the night's carrot for the Europeans. But it was quickly followed by the soft stick, wielded by Obama No. 3: The crafty election campaigner. ...then he mentioned the demands people in Europe had been expecting from his speech... But what, precisely, was that supposed to mean? How many troops in Afghanistan? What kind of support for Iraq? And what will his new strategy against terrorists entail? ... So far Obama has provided scarce details --- and he has generated criticism in the US for not being more forthcoming with his ideas. Nevertheless, it could be that the trans-Atlantic relationship right now needs a new tenor more than it needs new political projects." Obama No. 4 (just to round it out): "The save-the-world orator who has packed his speeches at home with that kind of rhetoric. In the final minutes of his address, Obama called out to the audience: 'We must come together to save this planet.'"

The New York Daily News: "Obama's got the world in his hands; McCain looks flatfooted."

The New York Times' David Brooks has totally fallen out of love (of course, that was bound to happen when McCain became the presumptive GOP nominee). "When I first heard this sort of radically optimistic speech in Iowa, I have to confess my American soul was stirred. It seemed like the overture for a new yet quintessentially American campaign. But now it is more than half a year on, and the post-partisanship of Iowa has given way to the post-nationalism of Berlin, and it turns out that the vague overture is the entire symphony. The golden rhetoric impresses less, the evasion of hard choices strikes one more."

Here is more proof that part of Obama's guarantee of a great trip is that many folks he met decided they had to suck up to him. France's Sarkozy is one of those sucking up.

"If Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is worried that Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is complicating the Bush administration's foreign policy with freelance campaign diplomacy, she isn't showing it. In her first public comments about Obama's overseas jaunt during which he has contrasted his international approach to that of President Bush in meetings with foreign officials, Rice said the trip was part of the election cycle and would not affect the administration. 
 
"The McCain campaign appears resigned to the fact that Mr. Obama's foreign trip is dominating the political news this week and that the Illinois senator has thus far avoided the kind of game-changing gaffe that Republicans were hoping to exploit. Instead, Mr. McCain's aides are trying to feed a perception that Mr. Obama is overreaching as he tries to bolster his foreign policy bona fides and present himself as a credible world leader."

The LA Times uses the new Quinnipiac polls showing McCain closing in on Obama in some key states, and writes a glass-is-half-empty story -- which includes some Clinton criticism. "Obama also faces discontent from some of Hillary Rodham Clinton's most ardent supporters, who are put off by what they describe as a campaign marked by hubris and a style dedicated to televised extravaganzas. Susie Tompkins Buell, a major Clinton fundraiser, said: "The Clinton supporters that I know are bothered by these rock-star events. These spectacles are more about the candidate than they are about the party and the issues that we care about."

Regarding those Quinnipiac polls, don't miss this: "Clay Richards, the assistant director of the Connecticut university's polling institute, said the Obama slide [in Minnesota] probably isn't as dramatic as the raw numbers reflect. Still, Richards said McCain is clearly stronger in the state than he was in June."

A Pew poll of Hispanics finds that Obama leads 66%-23%.

VIDEO: The latest NBC/WSJ poll shows that Barack Obama has not yet received any boost in ratings since his trip overseas. A Race for the White House panel discusses.

In his most recent National Journal column, Charlie Cook writes, "Obama is more than midway through his tour of the Middle East and Europe, a trip designed to generate images of the freshman Democratic senator standing next to foreign leaders, projecting a presidential image. That's important. Swing voters need to be able to visualize him as president and to see him dealing as an equal with the world leaders whose ranks he seeks to join. So far, Obama has made no major missteps during this important journey."

"McCain has spent the past week trying to stay visible and seem relevant—talking about the economy and lobbing verbal grenades at Obama any time that his junior colleague appeared to make, or almost make, a gaffe or expose a weakness. Trailing narrowly but steadily in national polls, McCain needs to wait for Obama to make a mistake—or needs to try to force one—then exploit it. This election is about whether Obama can make the sale, taking advantage of the voters' demand for change and their preference for Democrats these days. If Obama cannot close the deal, McCain will win by default, the beneficiary of voter reluctance to embrace Obama."

More compiled by NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann…
COLORADO: Howard Fineman looks at how the heavily attended Denver convention could be a key tool in mobilizing grassroots support in the state before November. "The campaign is using the scramble for tickets as a way to harvest names, e-mail addresses and phone numbers for Coloradoans who might not otherwise get involved. "They could ID an extra twenty or thirty thousand people," [a Democratic] official said. "If they are willing to come out and see him, they might be willing to make calls for him." 
 
FLORIDA: Obama's campaign opened its first South Florida office yesterday, its third overall in the state. 
 
MICHIGAN: The Detroit Free Press looks at Obama's loss among indies in the Quinnipiac poll. "The survey now shows McCain leading Obama among independents in the state 44%-41%, compared to a month ago when Obama led McCain 46%-38% among that same group in the state. Independents may make up as much as a third of the electorate in Michigan."

OHIO: Ohio's Secretary of State predicts a whopping 80% voter turnout in November. That would break the state's previous record of 77% turnout in 1992. 
 
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama leads McCain in PA field offices 24-2.

Compiled by NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger

Bill Richardson could miss the DNC if a special session of the legislature runs late. "I'll stay here. This is my priority," Richardson said at a news conference Thursday. 
 
Makeup mogul Bobbi Brown -- and believe it or not, New Jersey delegate -- says New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine has asked Bruce Springsteen and Jon Bon Jovi to come to the convention, but no word on whether they've accepted. Brown will also be available for touch ups. Seriously. 
 
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have taken their names off a housing industry reception at the conventions. A spokeswoman said the agencies will continue their financial commitment to the events.

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli

ON THE RECORD, IRAQ EDITION:
Back in the US, Chuck Hagel had tough words for McCain, though he didn't mention him by name. "Quit talking about, 'Did the surge work or not work,' or, 'Did you vote for this or support this,'" he said. "Get out of that. We're done with that. How are we going to project forward?" On the surge, he said of course there would be a result when you "flood the zone."

In an interview with the AP, Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) called the talks with diplomats and military commanders candid and substantive. 
 

VIDEO: With the party conventions approaching, Barack Obama and John McCain must decide on running mates. Political analyst Rachel Maddow weighs in on their potential choices.

ON THE RECORD:
Tom Ridge on MSNBC's Hardball: "It's very flattering, because of my longtime relationship with my friend John McCain... I don't know if I'm being vetted. Certainly, I have not had a conversation with my friend about it. So we'll just see what transpires over the next couple weeks." He said he hasn't talked to McCain about the process at all.

At home in Minnesota, Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) dodged many VP questions. "I have just stopped engaging in the speculation because I think it is just largely speculation and it just fuels more speculation... I have just stopped engaging in the discussion."

THE SHORT LIST:
An aide to Rob Portman confirmed that he would join McCain in Columbus tonight. The McCain camp later confirmed that he'd ride with the senator on the Straight Talk Express.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that a Portman "intimate" said it would be a surprise if there was any running mate announcements.

WHAT THEY'RE UP TO:
Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) was scheduled to be part of a press conference on gas prices.

Pawlenty can crow about a decision to keep a Ford plant open in his state for a few more years.

For the third time in as many weeks, anti-death penalty Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA) declines to intervene in a scheduled execution (release). Kaine speaks in Washington tomorrow on investing in infrastructure. It'll be live on C-SPAN.

Sen. John Thune (R-SD) was spinning for McCain on MSNBC, cut off as Obama took the stage in Berlin.

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) says he'll put out more documentation on his mortgages. "There ain't much to the story," he said of allegations he got sweetheart deals. 

BUZZ METER:
Terry McAuliffe "was adamant" in his suggestion that Tim Kaine would be the best VP choice. (Of course, it was during a speech in Virginia. Don't forget, he suggested Joe Biden a few weeks ago).

Speaking of Biden, Marc Ambinder thinks he has had a very productive speech.

Former VT Gov. and Hillary backer Madeline Kunin backs an Obama-Clinton ticket. "Clinton and Obama have already established a unique bond, having gone through the same trial by fire, revealing much about who they are – not only to the voters, but to each other. In order for the union to work, Clinton will have to be offered a clearly defined portfolio of responsibilities."

Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA) backs colleague Cantor for VP in a letter to the McCain camp.

ELECTORAL MATH:
Obama leads McCain by 3 in the new Fox News poll. But that lead grows to 9 points if it's Obama-Clinton vs. McCain-Romney.

CHATTERING CLASS:
Profiling Portman, the Wall Street Journal says that his association with the Bush White House "may be too much of a liability."

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones

BERLIN, Germany -- In the most anticipated public event of his five-country swing through Europe and the Middle East, Obama today addressed a crowd of more than 200,000 people at Tiergarten Park here, calling upon Americans and Europeans to work together to fight terrorism, poverty, genocide, climate change and to work toward a world without nuclear weapons.

He also touched on the need for peace in the Middle East, a strong European Union, and a free and fair trade system.

VIDEO: Speaking before an enormous crowd in Berlin, Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama warned against 'walls' between 'allies,...races and trives, natives and immigrants, Christian and Muslim and Jew.'

The presumptive Democratic nominee -- who was greeted with several chants of "Yes we Can" and was frequently interrupted by cheers and applause -- returned to his common campaign themes of unity, hope, and the need to seize the moment. He also repeated a favorite phrase, "This is our moment," several times throughout his roughly half-hour speech, which acknowledged about the need to repair the relationship between America and its allies.

"In Europe, the view that America is part of what has gone wrong in our world -- rather than a force to help make it right -- has become all too common," he told a crowd that stretched about a mile from his stage in front of the Victory Column to the Brandenburg Gate. "In America, there are voices that deride and deny the importance of Europe's role in our security and our future. Both views miss the truth."

Obama stressed at the beginning of his speech that he was speaking as a citizen of the world, not as a candidate for president. He touched on Berlin's Cold War past and of the aid America provided the city and the continent through the Marshall Plan. He said the city's people "kept the flame of hope burning" and that "this city, of all cities, knows the dream of freedom."

The campaign said last week it had chosen Berlin, the city where John F. Kennedy gave his famous "Ich bin ein Berliner" speech in 1963, because of its unique place in the history of the 20th century and because of Obama's desire to highlight the need to cooperate as closely with America's European allies in the 21st century as it did in the last.

Obama called the speech "A World that Stands as One," and he told the crowd it was important to remember that while there would be differences between the United States and its allies, no country could stand alone in fighting modern challenges. He drew applause when he said that true partnership and progress required constant work, as well as the will to listen to each other and to trust each other.

"That is why America cannot turn inward. That is why Europe cannot turn inward. America has no better partner than Europe," he said. "Now is the time to build new bridges across the globe as strong as the one that binds us across the Atlantic. Now is the time to join together, through constant cooperation and strong institutions and shared sacrifice and a global commitment to progress, to meet the challenges of the 21st century."

This was one of the most closely-watched speeches of Obama's campaign, and his advisers seemed particularly concerned about stressing that it would not be "political" -- with the senator telling reporters on the flight from Tel Aviv this morning that it would not be a "wonky" policy address. It came smack dab in the middle of a general election campaign against his Republican opponent, John McCain, with whom at least one recent poll showed voters feel more comfortable with on foreign policy issues.
 
Some controversy surrounded the event in its planning stages when reports came out that Obama had sought to hold it at the Brandenburg Gate, an 18th-century monument that became a symbol of the Cold War and is now a symbol of a reunified Germany. Ronald Reagan delivered his famous "tear down this wall" speech at the gate in 1987. 

Obama made reference to the Berlin Wall, saying the walls that still exist today between old allies on either side of the Atlantic -- between rich and poor countries; between "races and tribes, natives and immigrants, Christian and Muslim and Jew" must be torn down.

And he acknowledged America's imperfections. "I know my country has not perfected itself. At times, we've struggled to keep the promise of liberty and equality for all of our people," he said. "We've made our share of mistakes, and there are times when our actions around the world have not lived up to our best intentions. But I also know how much I love America."
 
"People of Berlin -- people of the world -- this is our moment. This is our time," Obama said in closing. 

The McCain campaign responded by calling the speech premature. "While Barack Obama took a premature victory lap today in the heart of Berlin, proclaiming himself a 'citizen of the world,' John McCain continued to make his case to the American citizens who will decide this election," spokesman Tucker Bounds said in an emailed statement. "Barack Obama offered eloquent praise for this country, but the contrast is clear. John McCain has dedicated his life to serving, improving and protecting America. Barack Obama spent an afternoon talking about it."

From NBC's Alex Wall
Two of McCain's policy advisors painted Obama as "Dr. No" on energy policy in a conference call held by the campaign this morning. Senior Policy Advisers Doug Holtz-Eakin and Nancy Pfotenhauer stressed the contrast between McCain and Obama's positions on offshore drilling and the expansion of nuclear energy.
 
Holtz-Eakin argued that McCain's support for the expansion of domestic energy production would bring down gas prices, stressing that the diversification of domestic production would make the U.S. less dependent on foreign oil.
 

VIDEO: John McCain seized a golden opportunity to talk energy and the economy, launching a new ad attacking Barack Obama on rising gas prices. A Race for the White House panel discusses.

"If you talk to any member of the environmental community, everything has to be on the table…coal, oil, nuclear and alternative [energy sources]," Holtz-Eakin said. "John McCain has said to me on numerous occasions, this is the right thing for the economy, the right thing for national security." He later added, "Obama has said, 'No,' to offshore drilling, 'No,' to coal, 'No' to [nuclear power]. His policy will ensure that we will have no new energy supplies."
 
On Florida and offshore drilling: While discussing McCain's support of offshore drilling, Holtz-Eakin argued that, "states that traditionally don't support drilling…like Florida are [now] supporting drilling." Holtz-Eakin went on to suggest that this change in public opinion shows increasing support for McCain's energy policies.

From NBC's Mark Murray
In his interview with NBC's Kelly O'Donnell, which will air on NBC's Nightly News tonight, McCain questions whether Obama should have given a speech in Berlin before becoming president.

"I would rather speak at a rally or a political gathering any place outside of the country after I am president of the United States," McCain told O'Donnell. "But that's a judgment that Sen. Obama and the American people will make." 

However, on June 20, McCain himself gave a speech in Canada -- to the Economic Club of Canada -- in which he applauded NAFTA's successes. An implicit message behind that speech was that Obama had been critical of the trade accord. Also, McCain's trip to Canada was paid for by the campaign.

VIDEO: At a town hall in Pennsylvania, Republican presidential candidate John McCain says Obama's failure to understand the success of the surge in Iraq is a huge problem.

Other excerpts of O'Donnell's interview with McCain:
O'Donnell: Do you believe Obama really would be willing to lose the war in Iraq?
McCain: I think it's very clear that he took the position that would enhance and maybe the reason why he won the nomination of his party. He doesn't understand that the consequences of failure in Iraq would have disastrous consequences for America's national security. And he still doesn't acknowledge that the surge succeeded, which is remarkable any rational observer who saw the conditions two years ago and sees them now.

O'Donnell: What is your best estimate in time for a significant drawdown [from Iraq]?
McCain: I'm sure by the end of my first term that we will be largely out of there.  But the point is, the reason that I cant set a specific date is because as Gen Petraeus says, we have to have the conditions on the ground. 

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
At 1:42 p.m. of its "Obama Live Ticker" -- essentially livblogging Obama's day in Germany -- Der Spiegel writes, "SPIEGEL ONLINE has learned that Obama has cancelled a planned short visit to the Rammstein and Landstuhl US military bases in the southwest German state of Rhineland-Palatinate. The visits were planned for Friday. 'Barack Obama will not be coming to us,' a spokesperson for the US military hospital in Landstuhl announced. 'I don't know why.' Shortly before the same spokeswoman had announced a planned visit by Obama.

The RNC has been passing along the story as well.

The Obama campaign confirms to First Read they won't be visiting and here's its official response:

VIDEO: Following a brief stop in Afghanistan, presidential hopeful Barack Obama travels to Iraq to meet with U.S. commanders and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports from Baghdad.

"During his trip as part of the CODEL to Afghanistan and Iraq, Senator Obama visited the combat support hospital in the Green Zone in Baghdad and had a number of other visits with the troops," Obama strategist Robert Gibbs said in a statement. "For the second part of his trip, the senator wanted to visit the men and women at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center to express his gratitude for their service and sacrifice. The senator decided out of respect for these servicemen and women that it would be inappropriate to make a stop to visit troops at a U.S. military facility as part of a trip funded by the campaign."

Also part of that live ticker, Obama gets some headlines it probably wants out of the speech -- "Obama Says He Loves America," "Obama Calls on the World to Support Iraq," "Obama Calls on Europeans and Americans to Fight Terror Together."  

*** UPDATE *** From NBC's Jim Miklaszewski and Courtney Kube
A U.S. military official tells NBC News they were making preparations for Sen. Barack Obama to visit wounded troops at the Landstuhl Medical Center at Ramstein, Germany on Friday, but "for some reason the visit was called off."

One military official who was working on the Obama visit said because political candidates are prohibited from using military installations as campaign backdrops, Obama's representatives were told, "he could only bring two or three of his Senate staff member, no campaign officials or workers."  In addition,
"Obama could not bring any media.  Only military photographers would be permitted to record Obama's visit."

The official said "We didn't know why" the request to visit the wounded troops was withdrawn.  "He (Obama) was more than welcome.  We were all ready for him."

From NBC's Bethany Thomas
Sen. McCain, tomorrow, will meet with the Dalai Lama in Aspen, Colo.

NBC Senior Investigative Producer Jim Popkin looks at "Obama and the case of the missing 'thesis'" in an item on NBC blog Deep Background.  

Conservative provocateurs have been hunting for it. Investigative journalists have been on the prowl, too. Even a former professor has been searching through old boxes for his copy of it. But today Barack Obama made it official: He doesn't have and can't release any copies of the thesis-length paper he wrote 25 years ago while a senior at Columbia University.

"We do not have a copy of the course paper you requested and neither does Columbia University," Obama spokesman Ben LaBolt told NBC News.

The hunt for Obama's senior "thesis" began with a throwaway line in a newspaper article last October. The New York Times story, on Obama's early New York years, mentioned in passing that the presidential contender had majored in political science at Columbia and had spent his time "writing his thesis on Soviet nuclear disarmament."

Journalists began hounding Columbia University for copies of the musty document. Conservative bloggers began wondering if the young Obama had written a no-nukes screed that he might come to regret. And David Bossie, the former congressional investigator and "right-wing hit man," as one newspaper described him, took out classified newspaper ads in Columbia University's newspaper and the Chicago Tribune in March searching for the term paper.

So what does the missing paper say, and could it be politically damaging to Obama? The Obama campaign won't offer any guidance since it says it doesn't have a copy. Spokesman Ben LaBolt wouldn't even say whether Sen. Obama threw out his copy or lost it.

So we turned for answers to the former professor who graded the now-elusive paper. His former professor, Michael Baron, recalled in an interview with NBC News that Obama easily aced the year-long class. Baron described the paper as a "thesis" or "senior thesis" in several interviews, and said that Obama spent a year working on it. Baron recalls that the topic was nuclear negotiations with the Soviet Union.

"My recollection is that the paper was an analysis of the evolution of the arms reduction negotiations between the Soviet Union and the United States," Baron said in an e-mail. "At that time, a hot topic in foreign policy circles was finding a way in which each country could safely reduce the large arsenal of nuclear weapons pointed at the other … For U.S. policy makers in both political parties, the aim was not disarmament, but achieving deep reductions in the Soviet nuclear arsenal and keeping a substantial and permanent American advantage. As I remember it, the paper was about those negotiations, their tactics and chances for success. Barack got an A."

Baron said that, even if he could find a copy of the paper, it would likely disappoint Obama's critics. "The course was not a polemical course, it was a course in decision making and how decisions got made," he said. "None of the papers in the class were controversial."

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
Looks like a change of plans, Rob Portman will join McCain at his event in Ohio tonight.

See First Thoughts for some little known facts and the pros and cons of Portman as VP.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Below are some excerpts of Brian Williams' interview with Obama from Berlin, which will air later tonight on NBC Nightly News:

VIDEO: Watch portions of NBC's Brian Williams as he interviews Sen. Barack Obama in Germany. Obama talks about being pegged as the "riskier" choice for president and the need for international cooperation against terrorism.

Williams: I have to begin by getting your reaction to a piece in this morning's International Herald Tribune. It's by Elizabeth Bumiller. And it reads, "Senator John McCain and his campaign have sharply stepped up criticism of Senator Barack Obama as a craven and naïve traveler to the Middle East, who, as McCain put it at a raucous town hall style meeting, quote, 'would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign.'"  That's -- that's tough language.

Obama: Yeah, I-- I was disappointed by that language. You know, John McCain and I disagree on policy. You know, we disagreed on going into the war in Iraq. We disagreed, until recently, about the need to get more troops into Afghanistan. But I've never questioned-- that he wants to make America safer. And for him to suggest that I don't-- for him to suggest that somehow -- I'm less concerned about the safety of my wife and daughter-- than he is I think -- was -- was unfortunate.

Williams: Forty-five minutes in Ramallah. No electoral votes in Berlin.  Is the trip worth it?

Obama: It is because I have firmly believed -- since the beginning of this campaign and -- for the last several years that we can't solve the problems we face in the United States alone. We can't solve the problems of terrorism without support from the international community. We can -- go after al-Qaeda as we have and we must. We can hunt them down. But we are gonna be more effective if we've got an international coalition. If we wanna pressure Iran -- something that has to be at the highest priority to back down from nuclear weapons -- then we've gotta impose very tough sanctions.

Williams: NBC News poll we released just last night, 55 to 35, you against Senator John McCain. American respondents are telling us they view you as the riskier choice for President. Do you understand that?  To what do you attribute that?

Obama: Well, I do understand it. I'm new to the scene. John McCain's been around 25, 30 years in public life. I have -- just recently emerged in terms of our national politics.  And so it's not surprising that people would say that -- the guy we're more familiar with -- is the less riskier choice. That doesn't answer the broader question, though, which is what do Americans think we need right now?

And can we afford to have -- four more years or eight more years of the same types of policies that we've had for the past eight? And in some ways, I guess that would be safe.  It's the devil you know versus the devil you don't. But -- but I think the American people understand that we're in a -- a -- a time of profound challenge and that we've got to make some significant changes -- in how our economy works, in how our tax policy is structured, in our energy policy and our foreign policy if we're gonna meet those challenges.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Results from the latest Quinnipiac University/Wall Street Journal/WashingtonPost.com poll of the battleground states Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin:

COLORADO: McCain 46% - Obama 44%
MICHIGAN: Obama 46% - McCain 42%
MINNESOTA: Obama 46% - McCain 44%
WISCONSIN: Obama 50% McCain 39%

VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd discusses the importance of Barack Obama's speech in Berlin and the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, which has Obama leading John McCain by six points.

The methodology: From July 14 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
-- 1,425 Colorado likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent;
-- 1,684 Michigan likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percent;
-- 1,261 Minnesota likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent;
-- 1,094 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.

In June's poll, Obama lead in all four states
COLORADO: Obama 49% - McCain 44%
MICHIGAN: Obama 48% - McCain 42%
MINNESOTA: Obama 54% - McCain 37%
WISCONSIN: Obama 52% - McCain 39%

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Barack Obama will be on the Hill next Tuesday evening to address House Democrats in a closed -door session, says a top congressional Dem source.

Recall that Obama received a hero's welcome from fellow Democrats when he made a surprise visit to the House chamber late in the primary season. Since then, there have been mutterings here and there about how he isn't communicating sufficiently with members of the caucus -- all of whom will be down ticket from the presumptive nominee.

Recently, Obama has brought in Phil Schiliro -- a veteran Dem staffer -- to work as a liaison.