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  • First thoughts: Obama's election to win

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
    *** Obama's election to win: How important has this overseas trip been for Obama? Look no further than our latest NBC/WSJ poll, which has Obama leading McCain by six points (47%-41%), unchanged from last month. While the survey finds that the political winds are at the Dem candidate's back -- just 13% believe the country's on the right track, an all-time low in the poll; this is the 25th-straight NBC/WSJ survey in which the GOP has a net-negative rating; and Bush's approval rating is only at 30% -- there are plenty of signs that Obama hasn't yet closed the deal; if anything, he's simply grabbing on to the reverse Bush coattails at the moment. A majority (55%) think he would be the riskier choice for president, less than half of respondents say he doesn't share their values and background, and McCain clobbers him on experience and commander-in-chief questions. This election, in fact, has become a referendum on Obama: 51% say they are focusing more on what kind of president Obama would be, versus just 27% who say they are focusing more on McCain. While a common refrain is that this election is shaping up as Obama's election to lose, NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) puts it another way "This remains Barack Obama's election to win," he says. "In the end, the election is about reassuring voters and removing doubts."

    VIDEO: The latest NBC/WSJ poll shows that Barack Obama has not yet received any boost in ratings since his trip overseas. A Race for the White House panel discusses.

    *** Re-running Hillary's campaign isn't the answer: But while Obama is working on some his shortcomings as he travels overseas, ask yourself this: Has McCain been working on his, especially on a week when he's had the country to himself? A whopping 77% in the poll believe that McCain would follow Bush's policies very closely or somewhat closely. Just 14% of McCain's own voters are excited about his candidacy (compared with 44% of Obama voters who say that about the Illinois Democrat). And, by a 55%-40% margin, voters prefer a presidential candidate who will bring greater changes -- even if he's less experienced and tested -- to an experienced candidate who will bring fewer changes. "McCain can't make this election about experience," says NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R). "Re-running Hillary's campaign isn't going to be enough." McCain tried to do something different by traveling to a Gulf Coast oil rig to promote his policies on offshore drilling, but those plans got scrapped by Hurricane Dolly. If it wasn't for bad luck these days, McCain would have no luck at all. That said, will observers look back on this summer as a wasted opportunity for McCain to start creating distance with Bush? Appearing with Bush's father this week, after all, wasn't exactly the best way to create that distance.

    *** It's the economy, dumba$$: No longer does the phrase "It's the economy, stupid" suffice. We need more of an expletive to drive home the point how central the economy is to this presidential election. In the poll, the economy and energy/gas prices are the two biggest voter concerns; Iraq is third. Voters are screaming for the candidates to focus on the economy, which is what makes the European portion of Obama's trip potentially more troublesome. It's not clear that either Obama or McCain owns this issue right now. Just 28% have confidence that Obama would be able to get the economy back on track, while only 17% say that of McCain. (But Democrats do enjoy a comfortable lead when it comes to which party better handles the economy and energy.) Also according to the poll, voters -- overwhelmingly -- want McCain to pick a running mate who's an expert on the economy. They want Obama to pick an expert in military or foreign affairs, but a close second is an economic expert. Who out there fits those bills for McCain and Obama? Will Michael Bloomberg get second looks from both candidates? Romney and Portman rise to the top of McCain's list? Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina too?  What about Mark Warner on the Dem side? Will Robert Rubin's name suddenly surface?

    *** Bigger than David Hasselhoff? Already this morning, Obama visited the Western Wall in Jerusalem, traveled to Germany, and met with Chancellor Angela Merkel. Yet the big event comes around 1:30 pm ET, when Obama delivers his speech in Berlin. The address, of course, has sparked plenty of questions: How big is it going to be? Is it a rally? Why were the Obama folks passing around fliers promoting the event? Earlier this morning, per NBC/NJ's Athena Jones, Obama held an avail on the flight to Berlin and answered some of those questions. On whether he's nervous about speaking before a million screaming Europeans: "I doubt we are going to have a million screaming Europeans… Let's tamp down expectations here. If we get tens of thousands." More on the expectations of the crowd size: "My staff basically just told me that this space is bigger than I realized. It is a potentially bad thing. We are sort of on the high wire all of the sudden. It's like, 'Wait how many does this accommodate?'" On the substance of the speech: "It is not a wonky policy speech." And on whether he will speak German, a la JFK: "Probably not. My German is not real good, but I don't think the Germans would feel a lot of appeal to that."

    *** Touché: The RNC, meanwhile, is up with radio ads hitting Obama for his lack of support for troop funding last year. Where are the ads running? They're in all three US cities named Berlin in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire, as well as all three US cities named Paris in Maine, Michigan, and Missouri. But we ask: Why no love for Paris, VA? Population 49!

    *** Going for the gold: The AP writes, "Barack Obama is going for the gold. He has decided to buy $5 million in national advertising on NBC during the broadcast of the Olympic games. The ads will appear on network and cable channels. The ad purchase was first reported yesterday on the website of Advertising Age, a magazine that covers the industry." 
     
    *** Blog fodder: Also, don't miss this little shot Obama took at Fox News when talking at his avail about the information/news the soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan are getting. "Sure, they are well informed, especially because you know [Major] Garrett's on their home channel. How is it that Fox News has such an impact with Armed Forces television?" Garrett, also on the plane, answered: "Choice." Then Obama replied: "Is that the commander-in-chief's choice?" Over to you, Mr. O'Reilly!

    VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray takes a look at McCain's potential V.P. short list and addresses speculation that the Republican may soon announce his pick.

    *** Meet Rob Portman: With McCain in Ohio, we take a look at Rob Portman (sorry, Bobby Jindal -- we were going to profile you before McCain canceled his appearance in Louisiana)… His family's ancestors were Quaker abolitionists who were active in the Underground Railroad… That you can put more money in your 401(k) and IRA is, in part, due to Portman… During 2000 and 2004 VP debate practice for Cheney, he played the roles of Lieberman and Edwards… On the one hand, Portman brings experience on the economy as OMB director and a geographic advantage being from Ohio. On the other, his close ties to Bush (pictures hung in his office of him running with Bush Sr. and fishing with Cheney in Snake River, WY.) and his work as US Trade Rep. are problems, particularly in his home state where he never ran for statewide office. He represented Cincinnati in Congress.

    *** On the trail: McCain is in the battleground of Ohio, where he raises money and then attends a town hall in the evening with Lance Armstrong; the two hold a media avail after that. Obama, as mentioned above, is in Germany.
     
    Countdown to Dem convention: 32 days
    Countdown to GOP convention: 39 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2008: 103 days
    Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 180 days
     
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  • Obama vs. McCain: Anbar Awakening

    McCain isn't backing down from his claim the surge started when he said it did, countering Dem attacks. "McCain said Army Col. Sean MacFarland started carrying out elements of a new counterinsurgency strategy as early as December 2006. At issue are McCain's comments in a Tuesday interview with CBS. The Arizona senator disputed Democrat Barack Obama's contention that a Sunni revolt against al-Qaida combined with the dispatch of thousands more U.S. combat troops to Iraq to produce the improved security situation there. McCain called that a 'false depiction.'"

    VIDEO: John McCain tried to explain his statements about the surge in Iraq beginning before the Sunni Awakening by insisting that the surge was actually a broader counter-insurgency strategy of which the surge in U.S. troop numbers was a part. The Nation's Chris Hayes outlines the inaccuracies of what McCain said and what actually happened.

    "Democrats jumped on his comments. They said McCain's remarks showed he was out of touch, because the rebellion of U.S.-backed Sunni sheiks against al-Qaida terrorists in Iraq's Anbar province was under way well before Bush announced in January 2007 his decision to send 30,000 additional U.S. troops to Iraq. McCain asserted he knew that and didn't commit a gaffe. 'A surge is really a counterinsurgency made up of a number of components. ... I'm not sure people understand that "surge" is part of a counterinsurgency.'"

    The New York Times fact-checks the back-and-forth. "Democrats noted that the sheik who helped form the Awakening, Abdul Sattar Buzaigh al-Rishawi, was assassinated in September 2007, after the troop escalation began. The National Security Network, a liberal foreign policy group, called Mr. McCain's explanation of the surge's history 'completely wrong.'"

    "But several foreign policy analysts said that if Mr. McCain got the chronology wrong, his broader point — that the troop escalation was crucial for the Awakening movement to succeed and spread — was right. 'I would say McCain is three-quarters right in this debate,' said Michael E. O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution."

  • McCain: Can't catch a break?

    Using the fact that McCain's oil rig event had to be cancelled due to Hurricane Dolly, the Washington Post takes a look at the fact that if it wasn't for bad luck, McCain wouldn't have any luck at all. "It seemed like a great way to counter Obamamania. Sen. John McCain would board a helicopter in New Orleans today, skim quickly over the Gulf of Mexico and land on an oil rig -- a made-for-TV moment to highlight his call for offshore drilling, an issue that Republicans believe will be a big winner in November."

    Then came Hurricane Dolly, a Category 2 storm that made a helicopter ride impossible. And then, improbably, a 600-foot oil tanker collided with a barge on the Mississippi River, creating a 12-mile oil slick and causing diesel fumes to waft over the city's French Quarter. The trip was off. In this campaign, it seems, McCain just can't catch a break." 
     

    VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel discusses whether John McCain is starting to lose his cool when attacking Barack Obama.

    The Boston Globe front pages McCain's "deficit" with young voters. "McCain's campaign, lagging far behind Obama among young voters, is trying to catch up. It will soon roll out new MySpace-style social networking features on its website -- which at the moment has special sections for women, veterans, and even lawyers, but not young people. It is also increasing its youth grass-roots organizing across the country and honing a new message aimed at young voters - 'service to a cause greater than your own self-interest' -- designed to dovetail with the 71-year-old's biography. Still, McCain is late to the game."
     
    And an interesting point: "Ronald Reagan proved that a conservative with the right message and outreach strategy can win over the vast majority of younger voters -- even if he is old enough to be their grandfather. Exit polls showed that voters 24 and under chose Reagan over his Democratic rival, Walter Mondale, by 20 percentage points in the 1984 landslide. Many in the vanguard of the Reagan Revolution went on to become the party's next generation of leaders - and some fill the ranks of McCain's campaign." 
     
    Here's a graphic showing the disparity.

    The St. Louis Post-Dispatch merges its local story of interest -- the sale of Anheuser-Busch -- with McCain and Cindy's dealings with the brewery. "McCain's campaign is unwilling to directly address questions flowing from InBev's purchase of Anheuser-Busch Cos. in light of his wife, Cindy's, ownership of a large Anheuser-Busch distributorship in Arizona, Hensley and Co."

    "A veterans group critical of the war in Iraq accuses John McCain of wanting to occupy Iraq indefinitely, against the wishes of the country's leaders, in an ad that will air later this week. The group, VoteVets.org, calls attention to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's desire for a troop withdrawal timetable. The group will spend $100,000 to run the ad on the MSNBC and CNN cable channels from Friday through the middle of next week."

    The New York Times notes that Arizona isn't necessarily a slam-dunk for McCain.

  • Obama: A 'partisan political event'?

    Der Spiegel has blow-out Obama coverage:
    -- "Debate over Germany Trip Leaves Team Obama Frustrated"
    -- Obama's Star Status Frustrating McCain
    -- Berlin Reopens World Cup 'Fan Mile' for Obama
    -- An American Idol in Germany

    VIDEO: Barack Obama arrives in Berlin to begin the European leg of his foreign tour. He's set to speak about his vision on the ties between the U.S. and Europe. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.

    The State Department has labeled today's Berlin speech by Obama as a "partisan political event" -- meaning US embassy personnel are being told not to attend. "Government employees serving in the United States are permitted to attend such events under the Hatch Act, which bars other partisan activity, such as contributing money or working in behalf of a candidate." But: "'We always maintain that no U.S. government Foreign Service person overseas should be seen to be advocating one side or the other,' State Department Undersecretary for Management Patrick Kennedy said, adding that 'it has nothing to do with who' the candidate is. 'When a German sees you there, they're not going to think, "Oh, he or she is on their off time." It's "Oh, they are a Democrat, a Republican, an independent," God knows what,' Kennedy said in an interview."

    The RNC is up with radio ads hitting Obama for his lack of support for troop funding last year. The ads are running in all three US cities named Berlin in PA, WI, and NH, as well as all three US cities named Paris in ME, MI, and MO. 
     
    But we wonder why the RNC left out Paris, VA? Perhaps with a town size of just 49 people, they don't have a radio market to buy?

    "GOP gripes: So we're running against President Obama?" "Alex Conant, an RNC spokesman, quipped, 'At this rate, it's only a matter of days before he opens his presidential library.'"

    The Washington Post takes a look at how meticulously Obama's trip to Israel was planned and how sensitive the campaign was to making a good impression on Jewish voters here in the US. "Plans for yesterday's swing through Israel and the West Bank were hashed and rehashed, down to who would accompany the candidate, what venues he would appear at, whom he would meet, and even the order of those meetings. 'There was some very serious thought that went into this,' said Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), a national co-chairman of the Obama campaign who consulted with the campaign about the trip."

    "Obama aides considered taking some Jewish lawmakers on the visit, but then thought the idea was potentially demeaning. Instead, Obama's travel mates included Dennis Ross, a prominent former Middle East peace envoy, and Eric Lynn, a former House aide, Chicago community activist and Obama's liaison to the Jewish community. There was some talk of scuttling a planned news conference, for fear that any slip would be magnified by the attention the Jewish community is paying to the visit. Obama, in the end, did talk to the media."

    "While in Israel, Obama seemed to put as hawkish a face possible on his agenda," the Boston Globe writes. "He said he would refuse to negotiate with Hamas, the militant Palestinian faction that controls the Gaza Strip, and framed a willingness to engage Iran -- including a personal encounter with its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad -- as part of an aggressive stance toward the country, not an accommodating one. Obama said it was important 'to exhaust every possible avenue' with the Iranian government, while suggesting obliquely that a failed diplomatic effort could help efforts to marshal international support for other forms of action."

    The London Times' second most popular story today: "The US presidential nominee was heckled as he visited the Western Wall in the early hours of Thursday morning, bowing his head in prayer and observing traditional custom by placing a folded piece of paper into the crevice of the wall. Orthodox men interrupted their morning prayers to catch a glimpse of the Illinois senator, reaching out to shake his hand as he passed them by. But not all were taken by the Democrat. One yelled out: "Obama, Jerusalem is not for sale!" before Mr Obama was whisked away to his waiting plane."

    Michelle Obama stumped in FL yesterday and raised a big chunk of change.

    Speaking of Florida, Obama's up with a new Spanish language bio radio spot.

  • Battleground: Ground-game edge

    Compiled by NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann…

    The Hill offers a numbers piece on Obama's organizational advantage in battleground states, citing the count of field offices in states that will likely be in play in November. For example: "In states where both campaigns have announced field offices that they've opened or plan to open, Obama has a definite advantage. In Ohio, Obama will have 18 offices open by the end of this week, while Sen. McCain (R-Ariz.) has eight. In Virginia, Obama has opened 20 while McCain has opened six."
     
    Obama campaign manager David Plouffe took his battleground PowerPoint to Capitol Hill yesterday, asking House Democrats to join in the effort to push swing states into the (D) column.  According to attendees, Plouffe "emphasized the need for lawmakers, particularly from safe districts in safe Democratic states, to join the effort to get out the vote in areas that are up for grabs."
     
    From the Washington Post: Plouffe spent the time "huddling with House Democrats behind closed doors for nearly an hour and assuring them that Obama would be helping their election bids -- and that they would be asked to help his."

    OHIO: It's a Republican full-court-press in the Buckeye State. McCain's there today, Bush is there next week, and RNC Chair Mike Duncan will be in Ohio tomorrow to rally state GOP leaders to McCain's cause.

  • Veepstakes: McCain says no decision yet

    Compiled by NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli and Carrie Dann
    REPUBLICANS: Asked by Sean Hannity if he had decided on a VP pick, John McCain said: "No." He said he's looking for someone "who shares your priorities. Your principles, your values and I've got to also say priorities. One of the toughest decisions the president makes is setting priorities. And so, that has to be those obviously important characteristics. And one of them of course is, someone who can take your place immediately."
     
    Mitt Romney's spokesman is no longer denying contacts with the McCain camp. Eric Fehrnstrom said he had no comment on the issue, "and that includes not revisiting prior statements on the subject." But a Boston Herald op-ed says that if the economy is Romney's selling point, that's not saying much, noting job losses and a mixed report card from the Club for Growth. 
     
    Tom Ridge tells the hometown Erie newspaper: "Don't know if I've been vetted, and I know for certain I've had no conversations with my friend John. And since we've been friends for 25 years, I'd prefer, if there's to be a discussion, it be a private one." 
     
    Pawlenty holds a press conference in Bloomington, MN, today on McCain's energy plan. The hometown Star Tribune thinks the Pawlenty buzz is at a "fever pitch." 
     
    DEMOCRATS: Some state Republicans are suspicious that a "viral" pro-Kaine video might just be the product of wishful thinking on the part of governor and potential vice presidential pick Tim Kaine.
     
    When asked in Houston if he would accept a VP invite, John Edwards "said he is not lobbying for the job but he would seriously consider it."

  • Convention watch: Step right up, folks

    Compiled by NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger

    DEMOCRATS: An announcement is expected today on how tickets will be distributed for the Thursday night Invesco Field speech.
     
    The ongoing saga of a Wisconsin delegate who may be stripped of her right to vote at the convention because she is publicly supporting John McCain continues. Debra Bartoshevich, a Hillary Clinton supporter, had an official complaint filed with the party's Credentials Committee against her when she said she would support McCain over Obama.

    John Edwards said he expects his anti-poverty initiative to play a prominent role at the convention. "I'm very hopeful and have good reason to believe that this issue will be heard loudly and clearly" at the convention, Edwards said. 
     
    REPUBLICANS: White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said Bush will leave St. Paul Monday night after his speech, without spending the night. "After the president speaks," she wrote in an e-mail to the New York Times, "it's McCain's spotlight and we intend to let it shine fully on him." Bush's speech will come several hours after a massive march is planned against the war, ending at the Xcel Energy Center, where the convention will be held. Could the presidential address help boost their numbers? 
     
    Convention press secretary Joanna Burgos told NBC/National Journal though that the list of speakers has not been finalized and the organizers would not comment until all the speakers had been determined.

  • Veepstakes: Jindal meeting canceled

    From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli

    THE SHORT LIST. Per Adam Aigner-Treworgy, McCain was asked his feelings on Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN). "He's a great, fine person. Reelected in one of the toughest reelection years in the history of the Republican Party. He comes from a -- his father I am pretty sure -- drove a truck. He has pretty successfully been able to work across the aisle in Minnesota with the Democrats. And I think he is, he, Bobby Jindal and a number of governors, I think are the future of the Republican party. The next generation of leadership."

    Earlier today, McCain mentioned his "beloved friend" Tom Ridge at a Pennsylvania fundraiser today, adding: "I think he's one of the ideal Americans that I have ever known."

     VIDEO: Former New York City mayor and one-time presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani joins Hardball's Chris Matthews to talk about John McCain's V.P. search and Barack Obama's overseas trip.

    Jeff Sadosky, a McCain aide, said predictions of rough weather Wednesday night, including strong thunderstorms, led the campaign to cancel the McCain trip to New Orleans.  McCain's camp says they'll reschedule the meeting with Jindal.

    Marc Ambinder offers some details on McCain's veep preparations, with a full time staff dedicated to the eventual pick. He also downplays McCain's mention of Pawlenty in a meeting with NH supporters, and reports that Romney supporters are suggesting he make his pick sooner rather than later. 
     
    Meanwhile, Bob Novak updates his take on VP: "The identity of McCain's running mate, whenever he is named, still is unknown. But former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney now leads all speculation. He is getting a boost from private polls that show his presence on the ticket puts McCain ahead in Michigan -- changing that state from Blue to Red."     

    ON THE RECORD. Fox News takes Jindal at his word when he says he's not going to be VP. "Let me be clear: I have said in every private and public conversation, I've got the job that I want. And I'll say again on air: I'm not going to be the vice presidential nominee or vice president. I'm going to help Senator McCain get elected, as governor of Louisiana," he said this morning. 

    Talking about the importance of Pennsylvania, Rudy Giuliani said on "Hardball": "I think Tom Ridge is a very strong candidate."

    WHAT THEY'RE UP TO.
    Mike Allen reports that McCain had a private breakfast with Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) in the Hamptons this weekend.

    Mike Huckabee, who is traveling with Cindy McCain apparently had his own airline mishap yesterday in Rwanda.

    Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) is expected to return from the Middle East tonight.

    Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ) touted Obama at her weekly press briefing. "When you think about it, when Clinton became president in 1992, he had less experience than Obama has," she said. "Some would say that, when George W. Bush came into the presidency, he didn't have much foreign policy experience, either. And he surrounded himself with people who had tons of experience, and look at what's happened over the last seven years." 

    Joe Biden's staff director for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee was on Obama's Mideast trip.

    Michael Bloomberg will speak at the Independence Party of Minnesota's fundraiser. 

    Hillary Clinton stood right behind Pres. Bush as he signed a legislation on 911 services.

    There will be a fundraiser for Obama and Clinton's behalf this week in Wisconsin. 
    John Edwards' poverty crusade continued in Houston today. 

    An LA Times blog, meanwhile, looks at the National Enquirer rumors. Per Drudge, Edwards has responded: "I don't talk about these tabloids. Tabloid trash is full of lies."

    BUZZ METER. Reuters takes a big picture look at the veepstakes, and finds that both sides have succeeded in keeping things out of the headlines. 

    Newt Gingrich doesn't want any more boring white guys, and would like either Jindal or Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK). 

    Michigan Democrats have a new Web ad attacking Mitt Romney's record on jobs in Massachusetts. The tag line: "John McCain might trust him on the economy. But you can't afford to." 

    The Louisiana GOP releases a poll today promoting Jindal's popularity in the state.

    Former Rep. Vin Weber (R-MN) says the names he keeps hearing are Romney, Jindal and Pawlenty. 

    ObamaBayh08.com, which once redirected to Obama's Web site, now redirects to the DNC Web site. The Obama camp said the domain isn't controlled by the campaign. Yes. That's what this has come to. 
     
    VEEP VETTING. Wall Street Journal reminds that McCain once said his party wouldn't tolerate a pro-choice VP. 

    Today's hearings on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" could provide a "delicate moment" not only for Obama, but possible running mate Sam Nunn. 

    The mini-scandal for Sarah Palin continues as her pick for state Public Safety commissioner denies harassment allegations.  She released another public statement to debunk what she calls the "latest falsehoods." 
     
    CHATTERING CLASS. Chris Cillizza now makes the case against Evan Bayh: that he either is committed to bipartisanship or "a sign that he doesn't believe in much of anything"; his selection might be seen as a slap at the liberal left; he may be too safe; he is on the record bashing Obama as a former HRC surrogate.  

    Wall Street Journal online also profiles the Indiana senator, and wonders: "Would picking Bayh as No. 2 undercut Obama's message of a new political era, or would it be the best way to consolidate the Democratic Party without Clinton herself on the ballot?" 

    National Review's Geraghty thinks Carly Fiorina will be on the final list, pointing to her work as a surrogate, unique business experience, outsider status, and appeal to HRC backers. Says she's been vetted from her years in business world.

  • Armstrong: McCain, Obama can't hang

    From NBC's Michael McDonel
    Lance Armstrong addressed the media with four past Surgeons General early this afternoon at the National Call to Action on Cancer Prevention and Survivorship at the National Press Club. 

    The press conference's purpose was to outline a national battle plan against cancer.

    When asked which presidential candidate he would rather have as his workout buddy, Armstrong said there was an obvious choice, but that he tries to stay apolitical when it comes to the issue of cancer prevention and surviviorship and that he is confident both candidates would strongly support the cause. 

    Upon further consideration Armstrong replied, "Neither of them could hang."

  • NBC/WSJ poll: For VP, economy matters

    From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli

    As both campaigns zero in on their running mate selections, the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds that a sizeable number of voters would like to see both nominees shore up their ticket with someone with economic credentials.

    But for Obama, the No. 1 quality sought in a running mate is someone with diplomatic or military credentials. Fifty percent of respondents said they'd like to see the Illinois senator pick someone who is an expert in the military or foreign affairs, compared to only 25 percent who thought McCain should do so.

    VIDEO: A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Barack Obama has a 6-point lead over John McCain in the race for the White House. NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd weighs in on the poll results.

    Sixty percent of the registered voters surveyed wanted to see McCain pick a running mate who's an expert on the economy, with another 22 percent looking for someone who has experience in the business world. Forty-two percent of those surveyed want Obama to pick a fiscal expert.

    Voters were allowed to choose more than one quality from a list. A smaller number of voters on each side thought it was important to pick someone who was conservative or liberal on social issues, with 13 and 11 percent, respectively.

  • 'No We Won't'?

    From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
    WILKES-BARRE, Pa. -- McCain spent most of his prepared remarks discussing the two issues he has made the center of his week: (even at fundraisers) energy and Iraq. On Iraq he reiterated some of his attacks on Obama that have become mainstays of this week, including another pointed use of the 'he'd rather win an election than win a war' line and answered a couple questions on how the Iraqi police are still not well-trained enough to secure their own country.

    He also hit Obama on his refusal to accept any of McCain's energy policies – "No We Won't" instead of "Yes We Can."

    Also, McCain is no longer going to New Orleans to meet with Bobby Jindal, but traveling to Columbus, Ohio, instead.

    McCain also complimented his former House colleague and "beloved friend" Tom Ridge, who did not appear to be present: "A Vietnam veteran, a person, one of the few graduates of Harvard who was drafted and went and served in the Vietnam War, first head of -- you know all about Tom Ridge, uh, I think he's one of the ideal Americans that I have ever known. I have to tell you his most unfavorite joke, which I tell all the time about the two inmates in the chow line at the state prison…."

    Some excerpts from McCain's town hall:
    On Obama and his seal: "Now, Senator Obama doesn't want to drill off shore. Senator Obama doesn't want nuclear power. He doesn't want to reprocess spent nuclear fuel. He doesn't want to store spent nuclear fuel. My friends, you might have seen the other day he had one of these, he had remarkably, a presidential seal, and in Latin it said something like, 'Yes we can.' I think he should change that to, 'No we won't.'"

    On Iraq: "When people said, you supporting 30,000 more troops and a new strategy that your candidacy is doomed to failure. I said I would rather lose a campaign than lose a war, and I meant that then and I mean that now. Now, Sen. Obama said that the strategy of the surge would not succeed. He said it was doomed to failure. He said that there would be an increase in sectarian violence. He still to this day has said that the surge has not succeeded. It's a remarkable, remarkable failure to understand the facts on the ground.

    "So apparently Sen. Obama would rather lose a war in order to win a campaign."

    On Israel: "I think to start with the status of Jerusalem would be the subject of negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israeli government. My feeling about Israel today is that they are probably, in many respects, under greater threat than they had been since their independence. We have the Iranians developing nuclear weapons. We all know that. There's ample evidence of it. And unfortunately in the United Nations, the Russians will not join with us in enacting meaningful sanctions against Iran.

    On Iraq corruption: "On the issue of Iraq, and I'll be glad to have another response from you, the Iraqis are taking up more of their responsibilities. There's corruption in Iraq my friend. It's not terrible and frankly the corruption is worse in Afghanistan than it is in Iraq. But the Iraqis are taking over more and more of those responsibilities. They are paying for rebuilding of their oil production facilities. They are repaying for large – they are paying for large projects. They need to pay a lot more, and as American troops withdraw, and we will be withdrawing, it just depends on conditions on the ground, than that will be a major factor in reducing our expenses in Iraq."

    McCain's call for change: "What I want to do, is the day that I am elected, not the day I'm inaugurated but the day I'm elected I want to pick up the phone and call the majority leader, who I've known for a quarter of a century. I've known the speaker of the house. I'll call both – I'll say look, I'm going to be in town next week. Let's sit down together, let's sit down together and set priorities so that beginning right after the inauguration we'll hit the ground running. We'll have a specific agenda and we'll work for America and I promise you I'll give you all the credit. I'll give you all the credit. We need to do that. We have to do it."

  • Obama: Nuclear Iran a game-changer

    From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones

    SDEROT, Israel -- Obama used a press conference in a town seen as a symbol of Israel's security challenges to highlight the danger of a nuclear-armed Iran and to reaffirm his strong support for Israel and his commitment to the peace process.

    Obama took questions for about 20 minutes, appearing alongside Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. Livni spoke briefly before the senator took to the podium.

    VIDEO: In Israel, Democratic presidential candidate Barack obama says he would offer "big sticks and big carrots" to Iran in an effort to halt that country's nuclear program.

    Obama largely reiterated views he has expressed before, such as the importance of having a U.S. government that was deeply engaged in the peace process but that did not dictate to either party what their agreement should look like and the need for Hamas to recognize Israel's right to exist.

    While there was little news in the presser, it was remarkable in terms of the strong language Obama used repeatedly to demonstrate the depth of his support for Israel, saying at one point that he had an "unshakeable commitment to Israel's security." His message appeared to be directed at American Jewish voters, an important voting bloc and one that has been wary of Obama's commitment to Israel.

    On Iran, Obama said he would take no options off the table in dealing with the potential Iranian threat.  

    "A nuclear Iran would be a game changing situation not just in the Middle East but around the world," he said. "Whatever is- remains of our nuclear non-proliferation framework, I think would begin to disintegrate."

    The senator argued that as other Middle Eastern countries, some with ties to terrorist organizations, sought nuclear weapons of their own that would increase the likelihood that loose nuclear materials could falling into the hands of terrorists.

    "That is our single most important threat to Israel but also to the United States of America. So this is something that we're going to spend a lot of time working on," he said.

    Obama said his goal was to mobilize the international community to offer big sticks and big carrots to Iran to end its nuclear program, urging the country to take advantage of what he called "the shift" in Bush administration's approach to direct talks.  
     
    Obama made a mistake when he began to list legislation he's supported to show that "vote after vote" he had been a friend to Israel.

    "This past week we passed out of the US Senate Banking committee, which is my committee, a bill to call for divestment from Iran as a way of ratcheting up the pressure to ensure that they don't obtain a nuclear weapon," Obama said

    The problem is that Obama is not on a member of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. He did not correct himself.

    Sderot is a city of about 25,000 that has come under repeated rocket attack in recent years from Hamas in nearby Gaza. The most recent attack was about a week-and-a-half ago, said Marcus Sheff, executive director of the Israel office of The Israel Project John McCain visited in March of this year.

    The senator visited with a family whose house was partially destroyed in a rocket attack, before arriving at the press conference at a police station here. He surveyed several dozen rocket shells being held at the station.

    Obama said he had not changed his position on Jerusalem as undivided capital of Israel and reiterated his willingness to meet with any leader if in interests of United States and said there's a difference between meeting without pre-conditions and meeting without preparations.

  • Teasing the new NBC/WSJ poll

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    Here's one result from the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that will be released tonight at 6:30 pm ET on Nightly News and MSNBC.com... With the news that Iraq's prime minister wants the US to set a timetable for withdrawal, 60% of registered voters believe it's a good idea for the US to set such a timetable, while 30% say it's a bad idea.

  • Obama Spanish-language radio ad

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    Obama makes an appeal to the Hispanic community drawing on his biography in his latest Spanish-language radio ad, which will run in Colorado, Florida, New Mexico and Nevada beginning today.

    All four are battlegrounds with Hispanic voters. Florida, however, has a higher concentration of typically more conservative Cuban voters.

    Script for "Nuestro Propio Camino":
    OBAMA: I´m Barack Obama and I approve this message.
    ANNCR: Some people have power and connections.
    But most of us have to make our own way through life. This is true even for the man who could become the next President … Barack Obama. He grew up without a father -- raised by his mother with the support of his grandparents. Through student loans and hard work, he graduated from college.

    Obama never forgot his roots… He worked with churches to help families get job training and after-school care for their children.In the State Senate, he passed a law that helped reduce the welfare roles by over 80% by helping families to secure jobs. And despite the political pressure, Obama has stood with us for immigration reform and spoke out for our veterans.

    It's time we had a President who understands we all deserve a chance to make our own way.

  • First thoughts: Obama's tricky day

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
    *** Obama's tricky day: So far, so good for Obama. His campaign got the pictures it wanted from Afghanistan and Iraq. The candidate also seemed to successfully navigate yesterday's press conference when every media outlet and GOP operative monitored every word he said. There are two big hurdles left: 1) the Berlin speech and 2) today's events in Israel, which might be the trickiest part of Obama's trip. Indeed, there will be a lot of attention on Obama's stance on Jerusalem. When Obama called for Jerusalem to be "undivided" at the AIPAC conference in DC he got large applause from the pro-Israeli audience. But Obama was criticized from the Palestinian community and he then walked back from the comment, later telling Fareed Zakaria on CNN it was "bad phrasing." "You know, the truth is that this was an example where we had some poor phrasing in the speech, and we immediately tried to correct the interpretation that was given," Obama said. It is a fine line Obama walks with skeptical Israelis and -- more important politically -- Jewish voters in the US.

    VIDEO: Time Magazine's Mark Halperin explains why Barack Obama's trip abroad can only help his campaign and why John McCain has a right to be frustrated.

    *** A busy man: Of course, Obama's day in Israel is mostly over... Already today, Obama has met with Defense Minister Ehud Barak and then with opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu. After that, he visited the Yad Vashem, the Holocaust memorial and chatted with President Shimon Peres. He ventured to Ramallah to meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. And he spoke with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. Still on the agenda: a trip to Sderot, a border town that has come under repeated rocket attacks from Hamas. And finally, he speaks with embattled Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

    *** Problematic body language: Sometimes body language can tell you a lot. And the body language coming from the McCain campaign -- as Obama continues his overseas trip -- doesn't look too pretty right now. Let us count the ways:  It has aired its first two negative TV ads of general election, one of which (on energy) was panned by virtually every media outlet for being factually incorrect. It later sent the press on what appears to be a wild goose VP chase, when it leaked to Bob Novak that a veep decision could be coming this week (and now even Novak admits that he might have been used).

    Next came the McCain Web video blasting the media's attention on Obama, as well as those luggage tags calling the reporters who have followed McCain for much of this election the "JV Squad" while others are covering Obama overseas; the other side of the luggage tag was in French with a beret-wearing guy pouring wine. (Side thought: Why does McCain think belittling his own press corps is a good idea? But we digress…)


    Click for a larger photo of luggage tags

    And then yesterday came McCain's line that "Obama would rather lose a war in order to win a political campaign" -- language that spurred veteran journalist Joe Klein to wonder whether McCain "has the right temperament for the presidency." McCain told CBS's Katie Couric last night, "I relish [being] the underdog." Did the McCain campaign push the candidate into this mode because they are obsessing SO MUCH over winning and losing daily news cycles? What happened to the happy warrior?

    *** Poll alert: Where does the McCain-Obama race stand? Has Obama received a bump from his overseas trip? Do most Americans support a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq? Is Obama a riskier choice than McCain is safe? And how many think the country is on the wrong track? Some answers to these questions will be revealed when the latest NBC/WSJ poll -- the first national survey to come out after Obama departed on his international trip -- is released on NBC Nightly News and MSNBC.com at 6:30 pm ET.

    *** Tar Heel dreaming? Does Obama really have a chance in North Carolina? GOP voices in today's Raleigh News & Observer don't think so. "There remains some skepticism among Republicans about whether the Obama effort is for real or just a feint. Some of them think Obama is likely to refocus his efforts on more traditional swing states closer to the election. 'We are anticipating that it could be a race in North Carolina,' said Ferrell Blount, a former state GOP chairman from Pitt County who is advising the McCain campaign. 'But we are not totally convinced it will be at this point. But we want to be prepared to spend some money in North Carolina, and we are trying to make some preparations.'"

    VIDEO: Quizzing people on whether or not they are being vetted never gets old and neither does talk of Obama's visit to the Middle East. Gov. Bobby Jindal, R-La., talks with Mika Brzezinski about whether he might be the vice presidential nominee.

    *** McCain's short list? We now have what appears to be the McCain VP short list: Romney, Pawlenty, and Jindal. Those seem to be the three after reading today's news clips (check out our Veepstakes section). One person whose name isn't on that list, but probably should be? See right below…

    *** Meet Tom Ridge: With McCain in Pennsylvania today, we take a look at former PA Gov -- and Homeland Security secretary -- Tom Ridge, with whom McCain is close friends. (And remember, how McCain gets along with someone is a factor in the VP decision.)… Ridge, a Harvard grad, won a bronze star in Vietnam. In 1982, "he was the first enlisted Vietnam combat veteran elected to the U.S. House...." In some veep crossover, Gov. Tim Kaine (D-VA) appointed Ridge to the independent panel studying the Virginia Tech shootings… Ridge may always be remembered for his color-coded charts (and the emotions those invoked) at Homeland… But his Achilles heel in this process? His support of abortion rights; in fact, his pro-abortion rights stance derailed his veep chances in 1996 and 2000. 
     
    *** On the trail: McCain is in Pennsylvania, holding a town hall and raising money in Wilkes-Barre, PA. He later visits his campaign headquarters in Harrisburg before heading to New Orleans, where he meets tonight with Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. Obama, meanwhile, spends his day in Israel.

    Countdown to Dem convention: 33 days
    Countdown to GOP convention: 40 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2008: 104 days
    Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 181 days
     
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  • Obama vs. McCain: A tough attack

    McCain yesterday launched one of his toughest attacks yet on Senator Barack Obama, saying his Democratic rival 'would rather lose a war in order to win a campaign.'"

    The Washington Post: "Obama said he had hoped to avoid political warfare with his rival while overseas, but the attention the candidate's trip is receiving in the United States and potential implications for the November election makes that all but impossible. Minutes after the news conference, McCain's campaign issued a statement blasting the Democratic candidate. 'By continuing his opposition to the surge strategy long after it has proven successful and by admitting that his plan for withdrawal places him at odds with General David Petraeus, Barack Obama has made clear that his goal remains unconditional withdrawal rather than securing the victory our troops have earned and the surge has made possible,' spokesman Tucker Bounds said."

    VIDEO: Race for the White House panelists Rachel Maddow and Stephen Hayes debate which presidential candidate, Barack Obama or John McCain, is showing better judgement on Iraq.

    Obama declared yesterday that there is a "growing consensus" in the United States and Iraq for a timeline to withdraw American combat forces, and that the United States now urgently needs to turn its attention to Afghanistan. "If we responsibly end the war in Iraq, we can strengthen our military, step up our efforts to finish the fight against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan, and succeed in leaving Iraq to a sovereign government that can take responsibility for its own future," Obama said at his first news conference since touring Afghanistan and Iraq. "The situation in Afghanistan is perilous and urgent," he said, calling the country the "central front in the war against terrorism."

    Another McCain gaffe? The AP: "'Because of the surge we were able to go out and protect that sheik and others. And it began the Anbar awakening,' McCain said, referring to the U.S.-backed revolt of Sunni sheiks against al-Qaida in Anbar province. 'I mean, that's just a matter of history.' The problem with McCain's statement -- as Obama's campaign quickly noted -- was that the awakening got under way before President Bush announced in January 2007 his decision to flood Iraq with tens of thousands of additional U.S. troops to help combat violence."
     
    "McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds said late Tuesday, 'Democrats can debate whether the awakening would have survived without the surge ... but that is nothing more than a transparent effort to minimize the role of our commanders and our troops in defeating the enemy, because to credit them would be to disparage the judgment of Barack Obama and praise the leadership of John McCain.'"

    The Washington Post editorial page is not buying into the narrative that somehow Iraqi leaders are others are supportive of Obama's withdrawal plan.

    Meanwhile, the New York Times' Tom Friedman says both McCain and Obama are right about Iraq. "All of which suggests that the right position on Iraq today is probably 'McBama' — stick to a clear withdrawal timetable because post-surge Iraqi and American politics will tolerate nothing else — but leave yourself some wiggle room if things keep getting better, but not exactly on schedule. Always remember: the more Iraq is seen as succeeding on its own, without U.S. scaffolding, the more positive impact it will have on the neighborhood.'"

    And Joint Chiefs Chairman Mike Mullen last night told PBS's Jim Lehrer that withdrawal from Iraq needs to be conditions based. But he also agreed with Obama that Afghanistan is "urgent" and that troop levels in Iraq have an impact on American military strategy in Afghanistan. "I think it is," Mullen said. "It is urgent. It is one where the violence is growing."

    JIM LEHRER: Why don't we have more troops there, Admiral?
    ADM. MIKE MULLEN: Well, we are very committed to -- with a significant number of troops in Iraq… And until we get to a point where we reduce that commitment, we won't have significant additional troops to add to Afghanistan.
    JIM LEHRER: So troops have to be withdrawn from Iraq before troops can being added to Afghanistan in any sizable way?
    ADM. MIKE MULLEN: In any significant manner, that's true.

  • McCain: A Dukakis-in-a-tank moment?

    The New York Times' Maureen Dowd points out a visual contrast this week that's going to be remembered for some time. "The image of John McCain in a golf cart with Bush 41 in Kennebunkport — with Poppy charmingly admitting that they were 'a little jealous' of all the Obama odyssey coverage — was not a good advertisement for the future, especially contrasted with the shots of Gen. David Petraeus and Obama smiling at each other companionably in a helicopter surveying Iraq. (Asked by a Democratic lawmaker a while back why there weren't more Democrats in the military, General Petraeus smiled slyly and said 'there are more than you think.')"

    In a separate piece, the New York Times' Stanley also writes on the visual contrasts. "It wasn't a television blackout of John McCain; it was worse: split-screen contrasts that at times made it seem as if Barack Obama was on a state visit while back home his opponent chafed at the perks and privileges of an incumbent commander in chief."

    More: "While Mr. Obama was shown striding across military tarmacs and inspecting troops standing at attention, Mr. McCain on Monday was seen being driven around in a golf cart by former President George Bush in the resort town of Kennebunkport, Me. Later, the two men spoke to reporters side by side at a waterfront, and they looked more like fellow members of a Past Presidents' Club than a party elder passing the torch to his political heir."

    VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel discusses whether attacking the media is a smart political move for John McCain.

    And: "Mr. McCain's surrogates complained bitterly about the Obama news blitz; on Tuesday the McCain campaign put out a Web video mocking reporters' doting coverage with a montage of anchors' gauzy looks and glowing praise set to the tune of the Frankie Valli hit 'Can't Take My Eyes Off of You.' But it's not pro-Obama bias in the news media that's driving the effusion of coverage, it's the news: Mr. Obama's weeklong tour of war zones and foreign capitals is noteworthy because it is so unusual to see a presidential candidate act so presidential overseas. Mr. Obama looks supremely confident and at home talking to generals and heads of state, so much so that some viewers may find the pose presumptuous — as if Mr. Obama believes that not only is his official nomination at the Democratic convention in August a mere formality, so is the November election."

    Asked by CBS's Katie Couric whether he believes he'd had unfair media coverage, McCain replied: "I don't think so. I think … it is what it is. I'm a big boy. And I'm enjoying every minute of the campaigning. And I'm certainly not complaining. And, in fact, I think it's fun to watch."

    Couric then asked: "Do you think your campaign simply isn't as adept as Senator Obama's when it comes to facilitating media coverage?"

    McCain replied: "No, I think my campaign's doing fine. We're two or three points behind. We're doing fine. I'm very happy with where we are. Sen. Obama has run a very successful campaign, gaining the nomination of his party, and attracting the attention of many people. I'm happy. We're putting one foot ahead of the other. I'm happy with where we are. I relish the underdog. And I'm confident we're gonna be victorious. I'm very happy with my campaign. I'm very happy with where we are. Love the town hall meetings and I love the kind of campaigning we're doing."

    The Washington Post's Kurtz tackles the age issue through the prism of how the media's dealing with it. McCain "has been making a series of verbal slips -- invariably described as 'gaffes' -- that are starting to ricochet from liberal blogs to the mainstream media. And fairly or not, some critics are suggesting the 71-year-old Republican candidate is showing his age."

    The Wall Street Journal looks at the message makeover the campaign has received from Steve Schmidt.

    On a less busy news day or even a news week or news month, the story of this GOP donor named Craig Berkman, who swindled folks out of millions in business deals, could be a bigger story.

  • Obama: More reviews in...

    The reviews of Obama's overseas trip continue to be positive. From today's Washington Post: Obama "has remade the campaign's foreign policy playing field, neatly sidestepping Republican charges that he has been naive and wrong on Iraq and moving to a broader, post-Iraq focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan."

    VIDEO: A Hardball panel discusses whether Barack Obama's Middle East trip will be a political success.

    The New York Daily News' DeFrank writes under the headline, "Obama hits grand slam in Mideast tour; 'he's won the week' vs. McCain." "John McCain may rue the day he ever taunted Barack Obama into going to Iraq. Obama's four-day visit to the combat zones was a political tour de force, generating mega-coverage back home that left McCain gasping for traction. 'Unless he screws up in Israel or Europe, he's already won the week,' a former Bush White House aide conceded."

    Perhaps the toughest day of Obama's trip happens today. The London Times: "The Democratic presidential candidate, who is struggling to win over Jewish voters in America and is viewed with suspicion in Israel, holds meetings in Jerusalem and the West Bank today during the thorniest leg of his international tour. It will be a far cry from the rapturous public reception that he is likely to receive in Berlin tomorrow." More: "Israelis are particularly suspicious of Mr Obama because of his willingness to talk to Iran's leadership, and a perception that he is sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. Unlike a visit to the region by his Republican rival John McCain in May, the Democrat will not only hold meetings in Jerusalem, but will travel to the West Bank city of Ramallah to talk with Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President, and Salam Fayyad, the Prime Minister." 

    It's surprising to see any domestic issue analysis this week but the New York Times fact-checks Obama's health care promises. "In speech after speech, Senator Barack Obama has vowed that he will lower the country's health care costs enough to 'bring down premiums by $2,500 for the typical family.' Moreover, Mr. Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, has promised that his health plan will be in place 'by the end of my first term as president of the United States.'"

    "Whether Mr. Obama can deliver is a matter of considerable dispute among health analysts and economists. While there is consensus that the American health care system is bloated with waste, eliminating enough to save $2,500 per family would require simultaneous and synergistic solutions to a host of problems that have proved intractable for decades."

    An independent, pro-Republican group is now airing a TV ad attacking Obama -- and it's gearing up to run more. The group, Let Freedom Ring, began airing "Both Ways Barack" last night (it was on MSNBC's Hardball) hitting Obama for what they say is holding two positions at the same time, not just being a flip-flopper.
     
    The ad will run for a week on national cable (MSNBC, CNN and FOX), the group's president Colin Hanna told First Read. It is produced by Demos Chrissos at Rapid Response Media, Hanna said.
     
    The group, a 501(c)(4), is four-and-a-half years old and ran anti-illegal immigration radio ads in 2007. It was also behind the 2005 effort called, "We Need a Fence." Let Freedom Ring ran ads then, as Rep. Duncan Hunter was proposing a 2,000-mile long fence in Congress. 
     
    Hanna would not disclose donors, saying that their donor list is "non-disclosable." He added that members of the group would have discussions tomorrow about whether they would expand the buy to local battlegrounds.

  • Battleground: Is Carolina really in play?

    NORTH CAROLINA: The Raleigh News and Observer looks at the seriousness of the Obama effort in the state and how the McCain campaign is responding. The Republicans quoted in the story appear to still be operating on the belief Obama's not REALLY taking North Carolina that seriously.

    "There remains some skepticism among Republicans about whether the Obama effort is for real or just a feint. Some of them think Obama is likely to refocus his efforts on more traditional swing states closer to the election. 'We are anticipating that it could be a race in North Carolina,' said Ferrell Blount, a former state GOP chairman from Pitt County who is advising the McCain campaign. 'But we are not totally convinced it will be at this point. But we want to be prepared to spend some money in North Carolina, and we are trying to make some preparations.'"

  • Veepstakes: The GOP Big Three?

    REPUBLICANS: A Republican who attended a private meeting in New Hampshire with McCain said that the Arizona senator "out of the blue" told the gathering that he thinks they are "really going to like" MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty. 
     

    VIDEO: A Race for the White House panel debates: How could John McCain not choose Mitt Romney as his running mate?

    A Romney source claims he's "near the top of a very short list" for VP. Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom repeats in an e-mail: "There's a lot of guessing and speculation going on, but the fact is that Governor Romney expects to be campaigning for John McCain as a supporter and not as a member of the ticket." 
     
    There was no comment from Gov. Bobby Jindal's (R-LA) staff about what his expected meeting with McCain today would cover. 
     
    At one of his town meetings, Jindal said: "I'm not gonna be vice-president. I have no interest in that. I want to be governor of Louisiana."  Jindal also said on CBS this morning that McCain will not offer him the vice presidency, and that he has not confirmed McCain's Louisiana visit. 
     
    Kathleen Parker wonders of Jindal is what Republicans have been waiting for. "Although Jindal is less well-known, he's got rising star power. Importantly, he's young -- and looks even younger. If he had cheeks, you'd want to pinch them. Reed-thin, Jindal has the metabolism of a hummingbird and the kind of intellect that makes Vulcans uneasy. Often referred to as the smartest man in the room, Jindal's mind can wrap around anything but the idea of repose. More to an important point, he's not another white guy." 
     
    DEMOCRATS: The New York Daily News looks at Hillary Clinton's schedule and says: "it seems that Clinton really has jumped back into her day job." Clinton will be in East Rutherford, NJ, on Monday to thank key supporters.

  • Convention watch: Paul's new venue

    Compiled by NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger…

    REPUBLICANS: Supporters of Ron Paul are moving their counter-convention to a larger space, closer to the St. Paul festivities. The "Rally for the Republic" will be held at the Minneapolis Target Center (home of the Minnesota Timberwolves) between Aug. 31 and Sept. 2. 
     
    A third protest march to the convention site has been announced. This one comes from the Anti-War Committee, a Twin Cities peace group and is planned for Sept. 4, the last day of the convention.  
     
    An important note for all headed to the Twin Cities: The Bloomington City Council is allowing bars to stay open to 4 am during convention week, but unlike Minneapolis and St. Paul, bar owners won't have to pay $2,500 to do so.

    DEMOCRATS: The committee hosting the Denver convention has been using the city's gas pumps to refuel without paying state and federal taxes for four months. Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper says the Denver 2008 Host Committee will pay market price for fuel, but a Public Works spokeswoman said the committee, which has not yet paid for the gas its used, would be charged without the taxes.

  • Veepstakes: Was Novak used?

    From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli

    THE SHORT LIST. McCain told reporters today: "When we are ready to announce, we will announce." Bob Novak, appearing on FNC, says he got the tip from a very senior McCain aide, but acknowledges he may have been used.

    From former McCain adviser John Weaver: "The vice presidential choice and the nominating speech are the only two major events under their control and they must be done correctly, not in a reactive fashion. If [Novak's report] is for real and they are about to name a vice president, it's campaign malpractice." 

    ON THE RECORD. On MSNBC, Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN) said he's "stopped engaging in those discussions," re: whether he's being vetted. Pawlenty also appeared on Fox News, saying McCain would want to choose someone who could add to the ticket on issues and experience, and be someone he's comfortable with.

    VIDEO: A Hardball panel debates: Will John McCain choose his running mate this week?

    Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) says Romney is "very much a contender" for VP, and said the two have a good relationship. And McCain himself, when asked about Romney in NH today, offered his familiar refrain: "Mitt has been of tremendous help to my campaign. He's been on television. He does a better job for me than he did for himself. I told him. He's been great." 

    WHAT THEY'RE UP TO. Officially, Pawlenty was in Washington for a meeting of the Strategic Management of Human Capital Task Force. (Yes, it apparently does exist.) He did spend some time at McCain HQ, but was expected to be airborne this afternoon and would not rendezvous with McCain in nearby Baltimore, per an aide to the governor.

    Hillary Clinton e-mailed supporters to say that while her campaign for the White House is over, "I hope that conversation continues through HillPAC." She asks supporters to "tell me what you're concerned about right now: the issues that affect your life and the principles you want to keep fighting for. Of course, there is that big, red contribute button.

    Joe Lieberman's planned appearance with Pastor John Hagee may give McCain some headaches. 

    Nancy Pelosi rejected a proposal from Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA) to use royalties from oil revenues to pay the state's share of levee improvements. 

    Gov. Charlie Crist (R-FL) announced that a Spanish solar plant has signed a "non-binding" agreement with Seminole Electric in Tampa to build a thermoelectric plant and sell the electricity to the Florida municipal utility company.
    Michael Bloomberg today signed an executive order requiring all city agencies to provide services in Spanish, Chinese, Russian, Korean, Italian and French Creole.

    Romney endorsed Wil Armstrong in the race to succeed Tom Tancredo in Congress.

    Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) has a campaign debt of about $293K. 

    Gov. Ted Strickland (D-OH) is off most people's short lists by now, but he's made a careful decision not to sleep with pigs, cows or sheep at the Ohio State Fair, as apparently has been the custom. Instead, he's going with Smokey the Bear.

    VEEP VETTING. Pawlenty has "racked up" more vetoes this year than any governor in Minnesota history. 

    CHATTERING CLASS. Chris Cillizza makes the case for Sen. Evan Bayh, who he calls the hottest candidate in the veepstakes: he can swing IN to Obama; he looks young but has a "deep and nuanced political resume"; he's substance first, style second; comes from central casting; and 

    A National Review reader suggests that if McCain is picking Romney, it would make sense to do so sooner rather than later since his personal funds could be tapped in the weeks before McCain officially becomes the nominee.

  • 'It's wonderful to be back in Israel'

    From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones and NBC's Mark Murray

    On the tarmac after arriving in Israel, Obama made a brief statement...

    "We've had a long day and I will have ample opportunity to talk to all of you tomorrow. But I wanted start by saying that it is wonderful to be back in Israel. I had an extraordinary trip the last time I was here. I am looking forward to spending the day tomorrow not only traveling around the country, but also having discussions with Israelis leadership about some of the profound security issues that both the US and Israel are gonna have to confront in the years to come."

    VIDEO: Barack Obama makes stops in Israel and the West Bank, meeting with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and President Mahmoud Abbas. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports from Jerusalem.

    Obama added, "I want input and insight from Israel's leaders about how they see the current situation; I'll share some of my ideas. The most important idea for me to reaffirm is the historic, special relationship between the United States and Israel -- one that cannot be broken, one that I have affirmed through out my career, and one that I would intend to not only continue but actually strengthen in an Obama Administration. My last thought is to the families who suffered the terrible tragedy that we saw today. And it's just one more reminder of why we have to work diligently, urgently, and in a unified way to defeat terrorism. There are no excuses, and I am absolutely committed to working with the Israeli government to make sure these kinds of occurrences do not happen and my thoughts and prayers go out to the families that have suffered as a consequence of today's vicious attacks. Thank you everybody, have a nice evening."

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