From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
KENNER, LA -- In a much-anticipated general election kickoff speech tonight, John McCain at once distanced himself from the current president, alluded to the Democrats' meandering path to the nomination, depicted Barack Obama as both inexperienced and beholden to special interests, and described Obama's major line of attack against him as a disingenuous scam.

Kicking off a 30-minute speech rife with criticisms of his newly minted rival, he warned that "you will hear from my opponent's campaign in every speech, every interview, every press release that I'm running for President Bush's third term."

McCain went on to accuse Barack Obama of an almost mindless repetition of that "false" notion. "He tries to drum it into your minds by constantly repeating it rather than debate honestly the very different directions he and I would take the country," he said.

The speech, scheduled to grab a slice of the primetime cable's political audiences, was set on the outskirts of New Orleans, Louisiana, a city that epitomizes for many the incompetence of governance during the Bush years. McCain used the backdrop to describe his history of head-butting with the unpopular current administration. "He and I have not seen eye to eye on many issues," he said of Bush. "We've disagreed over the conduct of the war in Iraq and the treatment of detainees; over out-of-control government spending and budget gimmicks; over energy policy and climate change; over defense spending that favored defense contractors over the public good."

As the sun set on an epic battle for the Democratic nomination, McCain's speech started off with the first decree -- from the mouth of one of its elite group of finalists -- that the primary season is officially at an end. "Tonight," he began, "we can say with confidence the primary season is over, and the general election campaign has begun."

McCain quickly offered a warm verbal embrace of that primary season's loser, his one-time nemesis Hillary Clinton. "The media often overlooked how compassionately she spoke to the concerns and dreams of millions of Americans, and she deserves a lot more appreciation than she sometimes received," he said, going on to note -- as he did in Nashville yesterday -- the historic trail that she has blazed. "As the father of three daughters, I owe her a debt for inspiring millions of women to believe there is no opportunity in this great country beyond their reach."

But for the almost-crowned Democratic nominee, McCain showed little such love. After pointing the finger at Obama for artificially strapping him to Bush's back, he continued his ongoing laundry list of grievances with Obama's stances on Iraq, meetings with rogue leaders, and strategies for energy independence. He described Obama as an inexperienced partisan beholden to special interests and reliant on big-government solutions. "That's not change we can believe in," he pronounced throughout the speech, mockingly referencing Obama's campaign slogan.

The 71-year old senator also took a shot as the age of his rival, 25-years his junior.  "You know, I have a few years on my opponent," he quipped, eliciting laughter and applause from the audience of over 500 at Kenner's Pontchartrain Center. "So I am surprised that a young man has bought in to so many failed ideas." In contrast to Obama's youth, he called the Illinois senator's proposed policies "old" and "tired" strategies that need not be "dusted off" again.

Without mentioning Obama by name in one section of his remarks, he also alluded to an arrogance that opponents depict as a motivator of Obama's youthful political career. "I don't seek the presidency on the presumption I'm blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save my country in its hour of need," he said. "I seek the office with the humility of a man who cannot forget my country saved me."

And, notably, he was not shy about describing Obama's path to the nomination as one that bucked the popular vote and relied heavily on influence from party elites. "Pundits and party elders have declared that Senator Obama will be my opponent," he said, soon after wrapping up his enthusiastic praise for Clinton. "He will be a formidable one. But I'm ready for the challenge, and determined to run this race in a way that does credit to our campaign and to the proud, decent and patriotic people I ask to lead."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Obama picked up 16 more superdelegates bunched in one fell swoop press release minutes after the polls closed in Montana.

Note, the Obama campaign lists 26.5, but some we have reported earlier this evening.

Following are those who are new to NBC.

NEW, PER NBC'S COUNT, including two switches from Clinton: AZ- Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, DNC Member Don Bivens; LA- Patty Arceneaux (SWITCH); ME- Sam Spencer; MD- Rep. John Sarbanes; MO- Yolanda Wheat; NV- Sam Lieberman, Catherine Cortez Mastor; NJ- Rep. Rush Holt; NC- Muriel Offerman, David Parker; OK- Jay Parmley; OR- Bill Bradbury; PA- Ian Murray (SWITCH); VA- Jim Leaman; HALF VOTES- FL- Rep. Ron Klein, MI- Rep. Bart Stupak.

The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: 1743 to 1638
SUPERS: Obama 390.5 to 293
EDWARDS PL.: Obama 21 to 0
OVERALL: Obama 2,154.5 to 1,931

* The number needed was 2,118.

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
NEW YORK -- The day started with reports that Hillary Clinton would concede, followed shortly after by talk from the candidate herself that she'd consider accepting the No. 2 spot. Speaking at the end of the day in her adopted state, Clinton said that she would be "making no decisions tonight," but vowed that whatever she decided would be in the best interests of her party.

Thanking the voters of South Dakota for one last win, she then praised Barack Obama, saying he's "inspired so many Americans to care about politics and empowered so many more to get involved."

"Our party and our democracy is stronger and more vibrant as a result," she said. "And it has been an honor to contest these primaries with him, just as it is an honor to call him my friend. And tonight, I would like all of us to take a moment to recognize him and his supporters for all they have accomplished."

She later turned to the ultimate question, acknowledging that many are asking, "What does Hillary want?" One of the things she listed was that the "nearly 18 million Americans who voted for me to be respected, to be heard, and no longer to be invisible."

"Your spirit has inspired me every day in this race," she said. "Time and again, you reached out to help me."

The crowd then started chanting "Denver! Denver! Denver!" repeatedly. Clinton continued over the chants, "Now there were days when I had the strength enough to fight for all of us. And on the days that I didn't, I leaned on you." She was counted out after Iowa, she said, before listing many of the victories that followed.

"Now the question is: Where do we go from here?" she said. "Now given how far we've come and where we need to go as a party, it's a question I don't take lightly. This has been a long campaign, and I will be making no decisions tonight."

Evoking a common refrain from a campaign that began over a year ago, said told supporters she wanted to hear from them, directing them to go to her Web site. The home page now asks visitors not for money, but to "stand with Hillary today and send your message of support."

"In the coming days, I'll be consulting with supporters and party leaders to determine how to more forward with the best interests of our party guiding my way," she said.

Tomorrow, Clinton will speak at AIPAC, following the now-presumptive nominee, Barack Obama. Campaign aides have said they don't expect her to attend a Democratic Party fundraiser tomorrow night, with the condition that things are fluid. Then they expect her to continue reaching out to the shrinking number of unpledged delegates, where she likely will make a case she hinted at only briefly tonight.

"Even when the pundits and the naysayers proclaimed week after week that this race was over, you kept on voting" she said. "You have voted because you wanted to take back the White House. And because of you we won, together, the swing states necessary to get to 270 electoral votes."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
NBC NEWS has declared Barack Obama the winner in Montana.

He also picks up nine more superdelegates: CA Christine Pelosi, GA Michael Thurmond, GA Jimmy Carter, CO Gov. Bill Ritter, MT Sen. Max Baucus, MT Sen. Jon Tester, MT Gov. Brian Schweitzer, MT Dennis McDonald, MT Margaret Campbell.

But NBC NEWS is taking away Sen. Tim Johnson and adding him to Clinton's total as he said he'd support who won the state.

The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: 1743 to 1638
SUPERS: Obama 374.5 to 295
EDWARDS PL.: Obama 21 to 0
OVERALL: Obama 2,138.5 to 1,933

* 2,118 was the number needed.

NBC News declares Barack Obama the projected winner in Montana's Democratic primary.

From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
NEW YORK, NY -- Clinton friend and supporter Lanny Davis is announcing this evening a petition drive to make Hillary Clinton the Democratic vice presidential nominee.

Davis, holding court outside the Baruch College gym Tuesday night, said he was starting the petition drive without the coordination of the Clinton campaign, and without their endorsement. He said a Web site would launch at midnight at www.womenforfairpolitics.com.

"Obama can win without her, but he can't lose with her," Davis said, noting Clinton on the ticket would help the Democratic party win women and Hispanic voters in particular.

Davis served as special counsel during the Clinton administration.

NBC News declares Clinton the projected winner in South Dakota's Democratic primary.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
With NBC NEWS allocating at least six delegates from South Dakota at 9 p.m. and the Obama campaign releasing the names of 7.5 superdelegates (one of whom is from Florida), Obama now has enough delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination, according to NBC's count.

VIDEO: America makes history by electing an African-American as the presidential candidate of a major political party.

Those endorsing Obama as polls close in South Dakota: IL Ed Smith, OR Frank Dixon, KS Helen Knetzer, CA Rep. Sam Farr, FL Mitch Caesar (half vote), CA Rachel Binah, UT Karen Hale, AZ Rep. Bob Filner.

*** UPDATE *** The delegate split in South Dakota, as of now, is 6-6.

The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1735 to 1631
SUPERS: Obama 366.5 to 294
EDWARDS PL.: Obama 21 to 0
OVERALL: Obama 2,122.5 to 1,919

NBC News declares South Dakota's Democratic primary as "too early to call"

From MSNBC.com's Tom Curry
If you're the kind of political non-junkie that still isn't sure exactly what a superdelegate is, you may also be uncertain on the protocol for superdelegates to make their big (or small, as the case may be) announcement as to which Democratic presidential contender they'll support.

The early backers of Obama -- especially the less famous House members -- got relatively little media play.

Rep. Adam Schiff of California, for instance, endorsed Obama the day after the New Hampshire primary. Schiff said he got fairly good Southern California media coverage. But the Schiff announcement did not make a national splash.

But in the last few days, the undecided and the late deciders (like House Whip Jim Clyburn, Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, and others) are being hailed and feted and besieged by dozens of reporters.

Of course, Schiff's one vote at the convention is just as valuable as Tester's or Clyburn's.

The actual mechanism of announcing are straightforward: The superdelegates issues a press release or grants an interview to one of his or her local newspaper and the word filters out -- spread, of course, by the campaign's press list.

If he or she is a big fish like New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, the campaign and the news media play it big.

The NBC New Political Unit keeps track of all the press releases and media reports and adjusts its superdelegate tally accordingly.

One of the amusing and slightly absurd spectacles of this week and last has been to watch reporters at the Capitol swarming all over still unannounced superdelegates such as Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland and Sen. Ken Salazar of Colorado to hear them saying yet again what they've been saying for weeks: They are not yet ready to make an announcement.

But come back again tomorrow….

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Obama gets three more and is now 11 away... will list in a few. For now... the counts...

COUNTDOWN TO THE NOMINATON:
OBAMA: 11
CLINTON: 200

The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1729 to 1625
SUPERS: Obama 357 to 293
EDWARDS PL.: Obama 21 to 0
OVERALL: Obama 2,107 to 1,918

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The last hour has seen a flurry of endorsements for Obama, and he is now within just 14 delegates of crossing the needed 2,118. He's gotten 13.5 since the last update. The past hour has also seen a few switches from Clinton to Obama, including Rep. Maxine Waters, and DNC members from California and Delaware.

We will update with the details... but for now here are the counts:

COUNTDOWN TO THE NOMINATON:
OBAMA: 14
CLINTON: 200

The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1729 to 1625
SUPERS: Obama 354 to 293
EDWARDS PL.: Obama 21 to 0
OVERALL: Obama 2,104 to 1,918

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The man who, on Saturday, presented a challenge to the DNC's rules committee for seating Florida's delegation confirms to NBC NEWS that he is lending his superdelegate vote to Clinton.

"Sen. Obama's already got the nomination," Florida's Jon Ausman told NBC NEWS. "I want to send a small message with my half vote that we need to be unified."

And by unified, Ausman said he would like to see Obama put Clinton on the ticket. "He needs to make some efforts there," Ausman said.

Ausman did have some harsh words for Clinton aide Harold Ickes' reaction after the rules committee's Michigan decision.

"That was someone who just got their butt handed to them in a closed-door meeting [by] Allan Katz," Ausman said. "It was unnecessary."

Katz is a lawyer from Florida -- and superdelegate -- who emerged as Obama's chief powerbroker on the rules committee.

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Andrea Mitchell
Hillary Clinton today held a conference call with New York's congressional delegation -- including Reps. Charlie Rangel, Joe Crowley, Steve Israel, Nydia Velasquez, and Nita Lowey, according to a source familiar with the call.

Per the source, Clinton emphasized the nearly 18 million votes she's won, and her campaign's impact on the agenda of the Democratic Party and the nation. Tonight, she is planning to reflect on her campaign -- how proud and grateful she is, as well as how remarkable her campaign has been.

She WILL NOT be dropping out tonight, Clinton added on the call, per the source -- she has earned the right to reflect on what is the best way forward. She wants time to catch her breath and wants time to determine the best way forward.

And then on the call, the source says, Velasquez remarked that the only way Latinos will support the Democratic ticket is if Clinton is on the ticket. At that point, Clinton said that if Obama asked her to be on the ticket, she would be interested in that.

Rangel -- who was the first to suggest that Clinton run for the Senate in 2000 -- confirmed to NBC News that Clinton did tell the participants on the conference call that she would be interested in running for vice president.
 
On the subject of Clinton and the vice presidency, Rangel told NBC that "certainly to the extent that she will do anything to win ... she'll be available"

"She'll do whatever is needed -- if people think it would help she'd do it," he added.

Rangel acknowledged that "Obama and Clinton's followers feel more strongly about the outcome than the candidates. Both of them need time to show their followers how important it is to take her."

He then added, "I really think if they want to win this they have to run together."

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Senate reporters chased down almost every uncommitted superdelegate they could catch in the hallways today, trying to find out who they'd endorse -- and when. Their majority leader, Harry Reid, seemed to set the timetable for the coming out parties. "I believe we should wait until after the primaries are finished," he said at his weekly news conference. "Sen. Clinton needs to be left alone. Let's get through the primary process."

Sen. Ken Salazar echoed that sentiment. "I think we need to allow an opportunity for Sen. Clinton to do what people expect that she's going to do," he said. "People need to give her space to get that done."

Salazar and Sen. Tom Harkin are organizing a meeting for the 16 other uncommitted super D's tomorrow morning. "We're meeting to discuss what -- if anything -- we might want to do as a group," Harkin told swarming reporters.

But tomorrow's meeting may be too late. Some members could endorse as soon as polls close tonight in South Dakota and Montana. Sen. Max Baucus, Montana's senior senator, said: "I was asked to go [to the meeting], but by tomorrow I will have declared. I'm going to endorse [Montana's] winner tonight."

And Sen. Russ Feingold seemed annoyed with the press' obsession with endorsements. He said he voted for Obama in his Wisconsin primary and plans on campaigning for him in the future. But he has not formally endorsed him. "I don't think it's necessary for me to make some kind of formal declaration," he said. "This notion here in this town that you have to sort of stick it in [Clinton's] eye is, I think, a mistake."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
With the AP's report of former president Jimmy Carter saying he will endorse Obama after polls close tonight, we are leaving him off the list until then. And to be clear, Carter, as a former president, is in fact a superdelegate as a "distinguished party leader." That's what his credential will say at convention anyway. As will... Bill Clinton's.

(We are also, for now, leaving off Rep. Jerry McNerney from California, who, per one report, says he will endorse after polls close.)
 
But here are two to add in, MA superdelegate Deb Kozikowski and embattled Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick -- son of Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, who we reported earlier, endorsed Obama. Remember, Kilpatrick's superdelegate vote counts for half being from Michigan.
 
COUNTDOWN TO THE NOMINATON:
OBAMA: 27.5  
CLINTON: 198

The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts: 
PLEDGED: Obama 1729 to 1625
SUPERS: Obama 344.5 to 295 
EDWARDS PL.: Obama 17 to 0
OVERALL: Obama 2,090.5 to 1,920 

* 185 undeclared supers.

*** CORRECTION *** McNerney's office called to point out (1) that we had misspelled the congressman's name. Apologies for that, and (2) that the report we link to it does not indicate he will vote for Obama.

From NBC's John Yang
"It was time," Missouri State Rep. Maria Chappelle-Nadal said of her announcement today ending her status as an undeclared superdelegate by endorsing Obama. "We're done today."

Chappelle-Nadal, 33, who represents the St. Louis suburb of University City, said she decided to back Obama because of his strong showing among black and low-income voters in her district, which Obama won easily in the Feb. 5 Missouri primary. She said she made her decision after the outcome of Saturday's DNC Rules Committee meeting on the seating of the Michigan and Florida delegations. "It was as fair as you can get," she said. "Rules are rules."

In April, Chappelle-Nadal expressed some frustration with Obama for offering few specifics in his speeches. How did she overcome that concern?

"That's a good question," she said with a laugh. "One that I wish you hadn't asked."

Chappelle-Nadal went on to say that she's confident that if Obama is elected the "best and the brightest" policy experts would flock to Washington to staff his administration.

From the beginning, Chappelle-Nadal, one of the 75 superdelegates handpicked by party chairman Howard Dean, refused to meet with officials from either campaign, though she did get about 800 e-mails and letters from supporters.

Chappelle-Nadal also cited parochial reasons for making her announcement today. "I have a primary in seven weeks," she said. "My attention needs to go to getting re-elected."

From NBC's Mark Murray and Caroline Gransee
As we previewed earlier today, the Republican National Committee is releasing a memo that highlights what it sees as the Democratic Party's disunity, as well as the fact that Obama seems to be limping across the primary finish line.

Well, the DNC is responding with its own memo. "Despite having months to solidify support, shore up his base, raise money, and formulate a plan for the general election, John McCain is still struggling as a presidential candidate," the memo reads. "He continues to trail our Democratic candidates in the polls, is on the wrong side of the issues, and with staff shakeups has a campaign in disarray. And as voters show they want change, McCain continues to offer more of the same failed Bush policies."

Below are the full memos...

The RNC Memo

Memorandum

To: Interested Parties
From: RNC
Date: 6/3/2008
RE: Democrat Disunity

Following all the uncertainty surrounding Barack Obama's path to becoming the presumptive Democrat nominee, Obama is now faced with two very clear certainties as he "wheeze[s]", as The New York Times puts it, across the finish line.  First, he will inherit a fractured party that is deeply divided over his role as standard-bearer and his ability to be President.  Second, he will inherit a national party apparatus that has been significantly outraised throughout the cycle.

Here are the facts:

* Nearly 18 million voters in the Democrat Party's nominating process felt that Obama was not the best candidate to be President.  The number of ballots cast against Obama in 2008 exceeds the number of total ballots cast in each of the last four Democrat Presidential primary cycles.

* Obama is not wearing well as a candidate and has lost momentum since his high point in February.  The more people learn about him and his views, the less they support him.  Since March 4, he has lost a majority of primaries to Senator Clinton, including the all-important states of Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and West Virginia.  He lost Kentucky by 35 points, West Virginia by 41 points, and suffered a 36-point defeat in Puerto Rico.  Were it not for the Democratic proportional system of delegate allocation, these devastating defeats might very well have derailed his nomination. 
 
* Obama has failed in key battleground states.  States like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia are critical to success in the fall, and Democrat voters there felt that he was not the best candidate for their Party or the office.  Furthermore, his failure to seriously compete in Florida and Michigan has left Democrat voters there skeptical of his commitment to them.

* Obama will not be able in the general election to count on many of the states that fueled his primary campaign.  Recent public polling shows Obama losing to John McCain in at least half of the states that he won in the Democrat primaries.

* Obama faces difficulties defending key states that were won by John Kerry and Al Gore in the last two Presidential elections.  Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are each polling competitively or in favor of McCain, as is New Hampshire, which voted in favor of John Kerry in 2004. 

* McCain is attracting large numbers of Democrat voters, which significantly undermines Obama's base.  The most recent Newsweek poll (5/23) shows 19% of Democrats favoring McCain over Obama, and 7% undecided.  By contrast, Obama only attracts 7% of GOP voters, with only 4% undecided.

* According to May data from Rasmussen Reports, one quarter of Democrats trust McCain more than Obama on the issues of the Economy (25%) and National Security (28%) – as compared to only 13% and 7% of Republicans (respectively) who trust Obama more.   Similarly, less than two thirds of Democrats trust Obama more on the issues of the war in Iraq (66%) and Taxes (64%).
 
* A recent poll by Pew in May shows that fewer than half (46%) of Clinton supporters expect the Democrat party to "unite solidly behind" Obama – down from 58% in March.
 
* Obama's primary election coalition of urban voters, young voters, ideologically liberal voters, and elites is far too narrow to sustain him amid a center-right general election electorate.  His coalition more resembles the losing coalitions of John Kerry, Michael Dukakis, and George McGovern than it does a supposedly new type of candidate with broad appeal.
 
* Many key constituencies that are necessary for a winning coalition in November have voted overwhelmingly against Obama in the Democrat primaries.  Obama has time and time again failed to connect with rural voters, union voters, Catholic voters, senior voters, Hispanic voters, and women.

* Despite raising a record amount of money in the primaries, Obama has also spent the most of any candidate to get to this point.  Together with the DNC he will begin the next phase of the campaign with less cash on hand than Senator McCain's campaign and the RNC.

* The DNC itself faces nearly a 9:1 cash-on-hand disadvantage versus the RNC.

* And this leads us to the DNC rules committee meeting on Saturday when the Democrat party leadership again failed to promote the unity that their party desperately lacks.   Howard Dean's fractious meeting of party elders seems a fitting exclamation point to this year's Democrat primary season.

The DNC Memo
Memorandum

To: Interested Parties
From: DNC Communications
Date: June 3, 2008
Re: Forecast for John McCain: Dim
===============================================================
Despite having months to solidify support, shore up his base, raise money, and formulate a plan for the general election, John McCain is still struggling as a presidential candidate. He continues to trail our Democratic candidates in the polls, is on the wrong side of the issues, and with staff shakeups has a campaign in disarray. And as voters show they want change, McCain continues to offer more of the same failed Bush policies. Below are key facts that together show one thing is clear: the forecast for John McCain this

November is dim.

McCain Is Having Trouble Solidifying His Base

• Buyer's Remorse? McCain Has Nomination Locked Up, But One Third Of Republican Primary Voters Still Pick Another Candidate. Even after locking up the Republican nomination, nearly a third of Republican voters in Idaho last week voted for another Republican candidate. Nearly 38,000 voters came out for another candidate, 6 percent voting uncommitted and 24 percent supporting Ron Paul—his best showing yet. [Boston Globe, 5/28/08]

• Business Leaders Not Backing McCain. A recent report in the Wall Street Journal showed that McCain's fundraising among business leaders, a key constituency for Republican candidates, has lagged. In fact, McCain had raised only $13.1 million from seven major industries through February of this year, while both Obama and Clinton had raised over $20 million each. Now, the WSJ said, the "Republican standard-bearer's attempt to claw back financial support from the GOP's business base could be a pivotal factor in determining the outcome of the presidential race." [Wall Street Journal, 4/2/08]

• Evangelicals Still Not Rallying Behind McCain. According to a recent column by Robert Novak, McCain still "has a problem of disputed dimensions with a vital component of the conservative coalition: evangelicals" and that "[s]ome U.S. Christians are not reconciled to McCain's candidacy." And while he is winning the evangelical base, his lead is 22 points less than Bush's advantage with evangelicals versus Kerry in 2004. [Washington Post, 5/12/08; LCG Election Monitor Blog, 6/2/08]

• In Home State, McCain Can't Rally Republicans. After representing Arizona for more than two decades McCain won just 47 percent of the vote in his home state's February 5 primary and turned in big losses in two other potential swing states that surround Arizona. And a new poll out last month showed that McCain "could face a tough fight in his home state." His lead was described as "narrow for a 'favorite son'...running in a state he has long represented in Congress" by the research director for the center that conducted the poll. [cnn.com, accessed 5/13/08; East Valley Tribune, 5/22/08]

• Republican Voters Looking For Alternatives. McCain's lack of appeal to conservative voters has brought in not one, but two alternative candidates. Bob Barr, a former Republican and Georgia Congressman, is now running for president as a Libertarian, saying that McCain is a "'status quo' candidate." Barr also said that people voting for him "would not likely fall into the category of people who would be enthused about voting for John McCain —if such exists." Similarly, Ron Paul's continued presence in the race and support at the polls shows that many Republicans are looking for an alternative to McCain. [Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 5/13/08; cnn.com, accessed 5/13/08]

McCain and Republicans Are Struggling With Key Constituencies
• Among White Voters…White voters are key to a Republican victory, but while Bush took the white vote 58 percent to Kerry's 41 percent in 2004, McCain only has an advantage of two points among white voters. [LCG Election Monitor Blog, 6/2/08]

• Among Hispanic Voters…Two out of three Hispanics call themselves Democrats. A

December Pew Hispanic Center survey found "57% of Hispanic registered voters now call themselves Democrats or say they lean to the Democratic Party, while just 23% align with the Republican Party -- meaning there is now a 34-percentage-point gap in partisan affiliation among Latinos." [Pew Hispanic Center, 12/06/07]

O Republicans losing ground with Hispanics. "Latino support for Republican candidates dropped from roughly 40% in 2004 to 30% in 2006, while 69% of Latinos voted for Democrats in 2006." According to a survey of under-30 Americans Latinos preferred a Democrat for president in 2008 by a margin of 42 percentage points." The Rev. Samuel Rodriguez, a conservative and president of the National Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference, summed it up by telling CNN that the immigration issue has been a "debacle" for Republicans, and asked, "Who's responsible? The Republican National Party. Who will pay in the 2008 elections? The Republican National Party." As Rodriguez noted, "Will Latinos be able to look at John McCain and say we're gonna support the party because of you and in spite of your party?" [CNN.com, 2/15/08; [Houston Chronicle, 9/9/07]

• Among Independents…McCain is trailing among Independents by 8 points, prompting one Republican strategist to write that McCain's high favorability rating among Independents "is not translating into actual votes at this point in time." [LCG Election Monitor Blog, 6/2/08]

• Among Young People…According to Politico.com, "Recent polling suggests McCain faces an uphill battle with young voters." The article cites April surveys by both MTV and the Harvard Institute of Politics showing McCain losing young voters to both Clinton and Obama by significant margins. [Politico.com, 5/19/08]

• Among Men…Though male voters are key to Republicans making up for the disadvantage they face with female voters, according to a Republican strategist "McCain is not doing well enough among men to bridge the historical gender gap with women." [LCG Election Monitor Blog, 6/2/08]

• Among Veterans…Having "voted for veterans funding bills only 30% of the time, according to a scorecard of roll-call votes put out by the nonpartisan Disabled Americans for America," McCain has pitted himself against the veterans community by refusing to support the 21st Century GI Bill to help veterans and service members pay for college. [time.com; 5/20/08]

In Latest Polls McCain Is Losing To Both Democratic Candidates
• Since Clinching the Nomination, McCain Has Actually Lost Ground To Both Democratic Candidates. Instead of rising in the polls after clinching the nomination,

McCain has actually lost ground to both candidates. An LA Times/Bloomberg poll out last month showed both Obama and Clinton beating John McCain, a shift from February when McCain was beating both candidates. And a new USA Today/Gallup Poll shows both Democratic candidates beating John McCain in head-to-head match-ups. [LA

Times/Bloomberg Poll, May 1-8, 2008; USA Today, 6/2/08]

• McCain Losing In Purple States Against Democrats. A recent Gallup poll shows McCain trailing Democrats with "purple" state voters—voters in states that were competitive in 2004. Both Democratic candidates beat John McCain 47 percent to 43 percent among voters in states where either John Kerry or George W. Bush won by five points or less in 2004. Voters in these states made up 31 percent of the electorate in 2004 and include New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Oregon—key pick-ups for any candidate in November. [Gallup, 4/17/08]

GOP Brand Is Damaged

• Republicans Losing In Key Congressional Races. Three straight special election victories for Democrats this year in heavily Republican districts show, according to NRCC Chairman Tom Cole, that "[t]he political environment is such that voters remain pessimistic about the direction of the country and the Republican Party in general…" Victories by Democratic candidates Travis Childers in Mississippi, Don Cazayoux in Louisiana, and Bill Foster in former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert's seat in Illinois indicate that Republicans are facing a difficult political climate all across the country. [Washington Post, 5/14/08]

• Americans Have Unfavorable View of Republicans. A New York Times/CBS News poll out in May shows Americans have a more favorable view of the Democratic Party than the Republican Party—52 percent to just 33 percent. [New York Times/CBS News Poll, April 25-29, 2008] And in a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, nearly half of respondents asked—48 percent—had a negative view of the Republican Party. [NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll, April 25-28, 2008]

• Republicans Less Trusted On the Issues. Americans trust Democrats over Republicans 53 percent to 32 percent "to do a better job in coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years." In addition, "Democrats are trusted more than Republicans on eight out of ten electoral issues" tracked by Rasmussen and even "[a]mong voters not affiliated with either major political party." [Washington Post-ABC News Poll, May 8-11, 2008; Rasmussen Reports, 6/3/08]

• Bush Most Unpopular President In History. According to a recent Gallup poll, 69 percent of Americans now disapprove of the job President Bush is doing—the highest of any president in the history of the Gallup Poll. [Gallup, 4/22/08]

McCain On the Wrong Side of the Issues

• Economy and Iraq Top Issues This Election. 56 percent of voters see the economy as the top issue this election, and 34 percent see the war in Iraq as the top issue, according to a recent LA Times/Bloomberg poll. [LA Times/Bloomberg Poll, May 1-8, 2008]

o McCain Is Not Trusted To Handle The Economy. A new Reuters/Zogby poll from May shows both Obama and Clinton beating McCain when voters were asked who would better manage the economy. [Reuters, 5/21/08]

o Americans Think McCain Is Wrong On Iraq. In a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, more than a third—36 percent—of respondents believe McCain has the "wrong approach" on "dealing with the situation in Iraq." [NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, April 25-28, 2008] In a New York Times/CBS poll, 62 percent of respondents want the next President to "try to end the Iraq war within the next year or two, no matter what," something McCain has not promoted. [New York Times/CBS News Poll, April 25-29, 2008]

• Voters Are Not Happy With the Direction of Our Country. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll, 82 percent of voters think the country "have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track"—the same track McCain would keep us on. [Washington Post-ABC News Poll, May 8-11, 2008]

o Americans Think McCain Offers A Third Bush Term. When asked what McCain will do if he is elected president, nearly half—48 percent—of respondents said he would "generally continue George W. Bush's policies." [New York Times/CBS News Poll, April 25-29, 2008]

McCain's Ties to Bush Pose Huge Liability With Voters
• McCain's Offer Of A Third Bush Term Set To Be Biggest Issue Of the Campaign. In a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll the issue of greatest concern to voters was that "John McCain will be too closely aligned with the Bush agenda. He has voted eighty-nine percent of the time for the Bush administration's programs." In fact, 43 percent of respondents ranked this as a "major concern." [NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll, April 25-28, 2008]

McCain Campaign In Disarray
• Republicans Worried McCain Staff's Lobbying Ties Are Undercutting McCain's Message. According to the New York Times, "In interviews, some party leaders said they were worried about signs of disorder in his campaign, and if the focus in the last several weeks on the prominent role of lobbyists in Mr. McCain's inner circle might undercut the heart of his general election message: that he is a reformer taking on special interests in Washington." [New York Times, 5/25/08]

• McCain Staff Defections Over Lobbying Are Disrupting McCain Campaign. The Politico wrote, "The McCain campaign, already facing the prospect of being badly outgunned in the general election, now also must cope with the disruption of the lobbying shakeout." [Politico, 5/18/08]

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Five delegates for Obama since last update.

Obama got two more superdelegates and one more Edwards pledged after they were contacted by Rep. Jim Clyburn, who endorsed Obama earlier today: Rep. John Spratt and New York's Ralph Dawson, a member of the DNC's Rules, and Bylaws Committee. The Edwards delegate is E. Tim Moore, a lawyer from South Carolina.

Two more supers: Ohio's Joyce Beatty and Maine's Jennifer DeChant.

This makes 10 supers and one Edwards delegate for the day for Obama.

COUNTDOWN TO THE NOMINATON:
OBAMA: 29
CLINTON: 198

The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1729 to 1625
SUPERS: Obama 343 to 295
EDWARDS PL.: Obama 17 to 0
OVERALL: Obama 2,089 to 1,920

* 186.5 undeclared supers.
 
* We've adjusted our Edwards pledged number from Florida.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Might this be the start of a potential flood. Water is under the door. The towels are down.

Obama's picked up six in the superdelegate count so far today. He got 3.5 of those between 11:15 a.m. and noon -- CA John A. Perez, MA John Olver, and three from Michigan -- Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, Debbie Dingell, and Rick Wiener. (Keep in mind, those Michigan delegates count for half.) Dingell's husband, Rep. John Dingell, is a Clinton endorser.

We reported on 2.5 in First Thoughts -- Rep. Jim Clyburn, who came out officially for Obama on TODAY, as well as Michigan superdelegate Joyce Lalonde (half vote) and Missouri's Maria Chapelle-Nadal.

As far as those Edwards pledged delegates, the remaining two in Iowa will likely announce their choice today. They are working on the details of when, how and, possibly, if it will be packaged with superdelegates.

New Hampshire Edwards pledged delegate Sharon Norgren told First Read she's remaining uncommitted at least for the "next couple of days." When asked if she's leaning way or another, she said, "I don't want to discuss it."
 
COUNTDOWN TO THE NOMINATON:
OBAMA: 33.5
CLINTON: 198

The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts:
PLEDGED: Obama 1729 to 1625
SUPERS: Obama 339 to 295
EDWARDS PL.: Obama 16.5 to 0
OVERALL: Obama 2,084.5 to 1,920

* 190.5 undeclared supers.

* Since the rules committee judgment, Obama has gotten 12 superdelegates to Clinton's two. Here's who they were:

OBAMA (12): MI Debbie Dingell; MI Rick Wiener; MI Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick; MA John Olver; CA John A. Perez; SC Rep. Jim Clyburn, Michigan's Joyce Lalonde (who only gets a half vote); Missouri Rep. Maria Chapelle-Nadal; WA DNC member David McDonald; VA DNC Member -- a rules committee member -- Jerome Wiley Segovia; Connecticut DNC Member Nancy DiNardo; and two from MI -- MI delegates get half a vote each: Lu Battaglieri and Brenda Lawrence. Yesterday, Obama got Maine add-on Gwethalyn Phillips and Nevada's Yvonne Gates.

CLINTON (2): NY Irene Stein and Louisiana's Democratic Party chair Chris Whittington.

From NBC's John Yang
"I'm in turmoil."

That's how undeclared superdelegate Leila Medley of Missouri describes her state of mind today.

Medley, the political director for the Missouri NEA, reports increasing pressure from both the Obama and Clinton campaigns to decide today -- Obama so he can go over the top, Clinton so that he can't.

Sen. Claire McCaskill, an Obama supporter, has been urging her and the other three undeclared Missouri superdelegates-- Attorney General (and gubernatorial candidate) Jay Nixon, Secretary of State Robin Carnahan and state party chairman John Temporiti -- to be part of the group that puts the Illinois senator over the top today.

The four are in close contact, have agreed to move together, and to not make any endorsements until at least Wednesday. "We're the holdouts," she said.

Medley reports that the volume of email from Clinton supporters from around the country accelerating this week. This morning, there are about 200 unread messages in he in-box -- and it's still coming.

What will Medley, a former Edwards supporter, do?

"I wish I knew," she said. "Here I am -- 71-years-old and this is the last time I'll be involved in this process to this extent -- and there's a woman on the ballot. And she's a viable candidate."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Mark Murray
Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe just told CNN that the AP article is "100% wrong." He said Clinton will NOT acknowledge Obama as the nominee tonight.

Clinton spokesman Mo Elleithee also emailed NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli that the piece is "not true."

That said, Clinton senior adviser Harold Ickes has told at least one top Clinton backer in the House that "it's over," according to an aide that was privy to the conversation.

Per the aide, Ickes told the Democratic member yesterday: "It's over and the end will be gracious, beginning with HRC's comments at Baruch College tonight. This will be over by Thursday at the latest. There's a large Obama fundraiser in NYC on Wednesday night that will include a bunch of bigtime HRC donors (I bet he raises $300K if not more) followed by a DNC event where big bucks will also be raised. We're guessing HRC will at least appear at the DNC event with Obama and use that platform to being to unify the party. (Ickes) agrees...that HRC has more leverage between now and Thursday than after."

It's the second round of MSNBC.com's Republican veepstakes. Vote today.

This is the sweet 16, the round that could help create the actual short list.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Breaking news from the AP: "Officials say Clinton will acknowledge Tuesday
night Obama has the delegates for the nomination."

*** UPDATE *** More from the AP piece: "The former first lady will stop short of formally suspending or ending her race in her speech in New York City... Once he reaches the magic number of 2,118, Clinton will acknowledge that he has secured the necessary delegates to be the nominee."

"She will pledge to continue to speak out on issues like health care. But for all intents and purposes, the two senior officials said, the campaign is over. Most campaign staff will be let go and will be paid through June 15, said the officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to divulge her plans."
 
"The advisers said Clinton has made a strategic decision to not formally end her campaign, giving her leverage to negotiate with Obama on various matters including a possible vice presidential nomination for her. She also wants to press him on issues he should
focus on in the fall, such as health care."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Obama's delegate drama: It's perhaps only fitting, we guess, that the final two Democratic primary contests today take place exactly five months since this whole process began, on January 3 in frigid Iowa. And five months since that day, here is where we stand: Per NBC's count, Obama is 37 delegates away from clinching the Democratic nomination. But with just 31 pledged delegates at stake in today's two primaries in Montana and South Dakota, Obama will need a slew of superdelegate endorsements to be able to get there tonight. So "No Drama Obama" is violating his unofficial mantra today by, well, trying to create some drama: Will he cross the 2,118 line tonight or not? With the announcement by Jim Clyburn that he's supporting Obama, as well as the endorsements from Michigan's Joyce Lalonde (who only gets a half vote) and Missouri Rep. Maria Chapelle-Nadal, Obama has already picked up 2.5 supers today. Can he get about 20 more before he speaks in St. Paul tonight in order to have the media put him over top to make him the presumptive nominee? We're told if the campaign has the supers we hear they have, they'll roll them out in chunks today -- possibly as many as 18 House members today, a handful of senators, and the trickling of DNC members. In Montana (where 16 delegates are up for grabs), polls open at 9:00 am ET and close at 10:00 pm ET. In South Dakota (15 delegates), they open as early as 8:00 am ET and close as late as 9:00 pm ET. South Dakota is one of those two time-zone states.

VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on whether tonight will find presidential hopeful Barack Obama declared the Democratic nominee.

*** The end of her campaign -- or the beginning of a new one? Is this the last active day of Hillary Clinton's campaign for president -- but the first day of her campaign for vice president? It could be. There are a lot of mixed signals out there about whether she's staying or going. With some, is this the emotion talking -- the threats of going to the convention and not bowing out anytime soon? Or is this a strategic threat in order to push the veep issue? Nobody who believes he's ready to be leader of the free world likes to be pushed around, so there's a delicate dance Clinton has to do if she truly wants to force her way on the ticket. (And it should be noted that her earlier RFK remark, as well as the Vanity Fair piece on Bill don't help her case -- since that VF article is a vetting road map potentially for Jim Johnson). If Clinton is looking to run in 2012 or beyond, then she probably has to strike a balance tonight. Because as much as Obama needs many of Clinton's supporters (if not all of them) in order to win in November, she's going to need some of Obama's supporters if she's ever going to be the Dem nominee in the future.

*** Bill's exclamation point: Will Bill Clinton be the exclamation point on Hillary's political obit? Potentially. The leaking of the Bill Clinton rant against Vanity Fair reporter Todd Purdum is one for the ages. Clearly, the HuffPo blogger baited Clinton but, well, Clinton couldn't help himself. It's yet another reminder of just how unaware he is of this everyone's-potentially-a-reporter mindset of the blogosphere. He really is a candidate still stuck in the 24/7 mindset of cable TV. He never got accustomed to the reality that everyone has a cell phone or recorder. If Mark Penn is at the top of the list of folks who cost Clinton this primary campaign, Bill Clinton will be listed as a close second.  Granted, the media never gave Bill a margin for error. But then again, he was no ordinary spouse.

*** Where we stand: Obama is ahead in pledged delegates per the NBC hard count (1,729 to 1,625), Edwards' pledged delegates (16.5-0), superdelegates (335.5 to 295), total delegates (2,081 to 1,920), the total number of contests won (32 to 21), and the non-Puerto Rico popular vote by 138,931 (17,304,352 to 17,165,421). Two notes: 1) we're not including Texas in this contest count, given that Clinton won the primary but Obama won the caucus and netted the most total Texas delegates, and 2) after Saturday's DNC decision, we're now counting Florida and Michigan as wins for Clinton -- but, per guidance from the DNC, we're including Florida's popular vote but not Michigan's. More on the popular vote… If you count Puerto Rico, Clinton leads by just 2,731 votes (17,428,541 vs. 17,425,810). When you add the Michigan results and don't give Obama "Uncommitted," Clinton's lead increases to 330,882 (17,756,692 vs. 17,425,810). None of our popular vote counts include votes in the Dems Abroad primary, Guam, Virgin Islands, Maine, or Washington State.

*** Welcome back…: Welcome back to primary night, John McCain! Coinciding with the official end of the presidential primary season, the Arizona senator has decided to insert his way back into the story with a prime-time speech from New Orleans. Speaking before either Clinton or Obama speak, McCain's likely to get a significant audience of mostly Dem voters to listen to his case. In particular, based on what he said about her yesterday, pay special attention to the positive things he says about Hillary, her campaign, and her supporters. There's nothing more the GOP wants to do than to continue to drive that wedge between Obama and Clinton supporters. McCain teased this out a bit yesterday by talking about how Clinton had inspired a generation of young women into public service.

*** The GOP shot across the bow: If Democrats want to win in November, how important is it for them 1) come together after this contentious nominating fight and 2) for Obama to get a movie-ending moment tonight? Just check this strategy memo -- entitled "Democrat Disunity" -- that the Republican National Committee will release today. "Following all the uncertainty surrounding Barack Obama's path to becoming the presumptive Democrat nominee, Obama is now faced with two very clear certainties as he 'wheeze[s]', as The New York Times puts it, across the finish line. First, he will inherit a fractured party that is deeply divided over his role as standard-bearer and his ability to be President. Second, he will inherit a national party apparatus that has been significantly outraised throughout the cycle," the memo says, per advance excerpts given to First Read. "Obama is not wearing well as a candidate and has lost momentum since his high point in February… Since March 4, he has lost a majority of primaries to Senator Clinton… He lost Kentucky by 35 points, West Virginia by 41 points, and suffered a 36-point defeat in Puerto Rico. Were it not for the Democratic proportional system of delegate allocation, these devastating defeats might very well have derailed his nomination." 

*** Down the ballot: In addition to the presidential primaries in Montana and South Dakota, there are a slew of downballot primaries today. Indeed, while just 31 Democratic presidential delegates are at stake today, approximately 20% of the entire House will see nominees picked in seven states: Alabama, California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. There are two marquee contests. The first is in New Jersey, where incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) receives a primary challenge from Rep. Rob Andrews (D). Lautenberg is favored, but one of the issues in the contest has been his age; he's 84 and Andrews is 50. (Is this a possible preview of McCain vs. Obama?) "Sen. Lautenberg, thank you for serving our country in the Second World War," Andrews said of the senator at a recent debate. By the way, if Andrews loses, he apparently already has a way to get himself back on the ballot for his House seat. Only in New Jersey, eh?

*** Pearce vs. Wilson: The other notable primary takes place in New Mexico, where Reps. Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson duke it out for the GOP nod to replace retiring Sen. Pete Domenici in the fall. The winner will face Tom Udall (D), and the race will be one of the top Democratic pick-up opportunities. The Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy says that Pearce might hold a slight advantage in the polls, but that Wilson has routinely been tested in tough races. "I'm not going to be shocked if either of them wins." By the way, the ENTIRE New Mexico House delegation is going to be replaced this year since all three House members are running for the open Senate seat. Finally, watch the primary challenge to Iowa Dem Rep. Leonard Boswell (it could be closer than folks think) and then the GOP ideological war in California's 4th District as it is a microcosm of the GOP's brand problem nationally. We could go on... and we will... at another time.

*** On the trail: Tonight… Clinton is in New York City attending what her campaign is billing as "celebration"; Obama speaks in St. Paul, MN from the very venue where the Republicans will hold their convention in September; and McCain gives a big speech from Louisiana that frames the general election.

Countdown to Election Day 2008: 154 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 231 days
 
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