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  • Obama health summary

    From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
    The Obama campaign has released a summary of Obama's health records. This comes almost a week after McCain made his health records available to a handful of reporters.

    Obama's physician writes that Obama's biggest health risks are his history of smoking and a family history of cancer.

    "In short, his examination showed him to be in excellent health," Dr. David L. Scheiner writes. "Senator Barack Obama is in overall good physical and mental health needed to maintain the resiliency required in the Office of President." 

    Here's the full letter:

    DAVID L. SCHEINER, M.D.
    Hyde Park Associates in Medicine, Ltd.
    1515 East 52nd Place, Chicago, IL 60615

    To Whom It May Concern:

    I am David L. Scheiner, a board certified general internist licensed to practice in the State of Illinois. I am on staff at the University of Chicago Hospitals and Rush University Medical Center. I have been Senator Barack Obama's primary care physician since March 23, 1987. The following is a summary of his medical records for the past 21 years.

    During that period of time, Senator Obama has been in excellent health. He has been seen regularly for medical checkups and various minor problems such as upper respiratory infections, skin rashes and minor injuries.

    His family history is pertinent for his mother's death from ovarian cancer and grandfather who died of prostate cancer. His own history included intermittent cigarette smoking. He has quit this practice on several occasions and is currently using Nicorette gum with success.

    Senator Obama's last medical checkup was on January 15, 2007; he had no complaints. He exercised regularly often jogging three miles. His diet was balanced with good intake of roughage and fluids. A complete review of systems was unremarkable. On physical examination, his blood pressure was 90/60 and pulse 60/minute. His build was lean and muscular with no excess body fat. His physical examination was completely normal.

    Laboratory studies included triglycerides of 44(normal under 150), cholesterol 173 (normal under 200), HDL 68 (normal over 40), and LDL 96 (normal under 130). Chem 24, urinalysis and CBC were normal, PSA was 0.6, very good. An EKG was normal.

    In short, his examination showed him to be in excellent health. Senator Barack Obama is in overall good physical and mental health needed to maintain the resiliency required in the Office of President.

    Sincerely,
    David L. Scheiner, M.D.

  • Clinton up with first Montana ad

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    With the primary in Montana just five days away, Clinton is up with her first ad there. "It's time to level the playing field against the special interests," Clinton says as mountainous Montana scenery flits across the screen.

    "She's the only one in this campaign who voted against the Bush energy bill against $6 billion to the oil companies," an announcer says, "the only one taking on the insurance companies to guarantee health coverage for every American and she's the one who'll end $55 billion in giveaways to corporate special interests and cut taxes for the middle class instead."

    [YouTube:-XXVqRIhMUM]

  • First thoughts: Obama boxed in?

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
    *** Boxing Obama in on Iraq? Lost yesterday in the frenzy over Scott McClellan's new book was McCain's blistering attack on Obama over the fact that the Illinois senator hasn't been to Iraq since 2006. Indeed, the RNC even released an online clock counting the days since Obama last visited the Middle East country. Then later in the day, the New York Times reported that Obama is considering a trip to Iraq; his campaign, in fact, has been discussing such a trip for weeks. Has McCain boxed Obama in on this issue -- because if he does actually go to Iraq, will it look like McCain's idea? There are certainly a few other pros to McCain's line of attack here: It moves the issue terrain to ground on which the Arizona senator is comfortable (Iraq), and it makes McCain look like the knowledgeable and experienced one. "The important thing is for him to go and see the facts on the ground and the success we are achieving," McCain said yesterday. But there are a couple of cons, too. For starters, this debate will spur news organizations to whip up the video of McCain's widely panned stroll through that Baghdad market, evidence that politicians don't always see everything when they visit Iraq. But more important, if Obama DOES go, it could provide him a real commander-in-chief moment. As conservative commentator Jennifer Rubin puts it, "He might be able to … show he is not 'afraid' to get out and meet with the troops and commanders. He might even impress some voters that he is fluent enough in national security matters to be a credible commander-in-chief." Short-term gain for McCain, potential long-term opportunity for Obama? Perhaps.

    *** Replaying Clinton's greatest hits: McCain's attack on Obama yesterday also included this line: "Sen. Obama is the chairman of important subcommittee that has the oversight of what's going on in Afghanistan. He has not held one single hearing on Afghanistan." Later in the day, a McCain spokesman released this statement: "In 2004, Barack Obama said he had the same position [on Iraq] as President George W. Bush." Um, haven't we heard this stuff before -- from Clinton and her campaign? In fact, there is a danger here for McCain in recycling Clinton's greatest hits on Obama over the last several months. For one thing, the attacks seem a bit dated (Afghanistan and the subcommittee?) Two, they didn't exactly work for Clinton, did they? Then again, perhaps they might work better with general election voters. But so far, they haven't been a silver bullet. Some non-connected McCain watchers have been warning the campaign against recycling the same lines of attack on Obama -- don't hit him on the obvious weaknesses (inexperience); instead try and hug him on his supposed strength (non-polarizing) and lay claim to being the, well, reformer with results. But that sounds like Clinton's "solutions" gambit, doesn't it?

    VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on what Scott McClellan's new book means for McCain and looks at the Florida and Michigan delegate math ahead of this weekend's DNC meeting.

    *** Still dominating the news: Per NBC's John Yang, as Scott McClellan starts trying to explain his book -- as he did on TODAY this morning -- and as the chorus of Bush loyalists both inside and outside the White House continue their defense, the White House has nothing to try to push this story out of the headlines. Mr. Bush is on the final day of his Western swing, where he has two events: a meeting with the head of the Mormon Church in Salt Lake City and a fundraiser for a Republican House challenger in Kansas, both closed to coverage. He returns to the White House around this evening. McClellan will appear on Olbermann tonight, as well as on Meet the Press on Sunday. This is turning into a five-day news story -- minimum. And that's not just unhelpful to Bush as he attempts to repair his image even a little, but also to John McCain, who doesn't need White House Bush drama eating into his coverage. Also, nevermind how McClellan has stepped on Clinton's final attempt to bring attention to the Florida-Michigan process.

    VIDEO: See McClellan's exclusive interview with TODAY's Meredith Vieira.

    *** The circus comes to town: Speaking of drama, Saturday's DNC rules committee hearing is promising to be a potential circus, as Clinton supporters appear to be preparing for fairly loud protests -- something the Obama campaign is reminding reporters that they could do but are choosing not to. The Clinton campaign is denying fanning the protest front, but they aren't discouraging the demonstrations either. And then there are the conspiracy theories popping up in the left blogosphere that Republicans will be secretly showing up Saturday in order to cause chaos and make the party look ridiculous on national TV. As for the actual meeting itself, there's one more angle you ought to be aware of: a 50% cut and a halving of the delegates is not the same thing. For instance, if Florida delegates are seated in their entirety, but only have their vote counted as a .5, then Clinton will net approximately 19 delegates out of the state. But if the delegation is cut in half, that's done in every congressional district as well as statewide, then suddenly Clinton's advantage is only a net of six. That's right, the complicated nature of the DNC delegate selection process will be a good reminder to math majors everywhere that a 50% cut is not the same as a halving of an individual number. Go figure...

    *** Ron Paul watch: It's worth noting that the Idaho Republican primary was Tuesday, and Ron Paul got 24% of the vote there. "[I]n Tuesday's little-noticed Republican primary in Idaho, the iconoclastic Texas congressman had his best showing so far…," the Boston Globe writes, adding, "Paul's showing came despite making only one campaign stop in the state" and that "Paul's supporters have been making waves in state GOP conventions, hoping to secure a speaking role for him, plus a say on the party platform, at the national convention in September." Uncommitted got 6% in Idaho while McCain got the rest -- 70%.

    *** Veepstakes/battleground watch: In today's veepstakes news, Michael Bloomberg criticizes all three presidential contenders (Clinton, McCain, Obama) for not always standing up to special interests… Joe Lieberman had to step down from the pro-Iraq war group Vets for Freedom because it's running 527 ads against Obama… Lieberman refused to throw Pastor John Hagee under the bus and will attend the pastor's summit in July… And don't forget to check out our GOP veepstakes tournament on MSNBC.com. By the way, not a single one of our business execs will make it past the first round. Also, in state battleground news, a new Michigan poll has McCain leading Obama, 44%-40%, but toss in Romney and Clinton as the McCain and Obama running mates and the result flips with Obama-Clinton leading. Hmmm….

    *** The delegate count: Obama picked up four more superdelegates yesterday and one this morning, which brings him within 44.5 of the required 2,026 (which, of course, will likely go up after Saturday depending on how the Michigan and Florida delegations are seated.) The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts: PLEDGED: Obama 1,649 to 1,500; SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 320.5 to 283.5; EDWARDS PL.: Obama 12 to 0; TOTAL: Obama 1,981.5 to 1,783.5.

    *** On the trail: Clinton remains in South Dakota, holding rallies in Huron and Watertown; McCain has a town hall in Greendale, WI and fundraises in Milwaukee afterward; and Obama is down in Chicago.

    Countdown to Puerto Rico: 3 days
    Countdown to Montana, South Dakota: 5 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2008: 159 days
    Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 236 days
     
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  • McCain vs. Obama: Visiting Iraq

    McCain and the GOP continued to hammer Obama for not visiting Iraq. The LA Times writes, "Speaking with evident condescension, Arizona Sen. John McCain needled Barack Obama on Wednesday by offering to travel to Iraq with the Illinois senator to help him gain a better understanding of the war and the consequences of withdrawing troops. The attack by the presumptive Republican presidential nominee was in line with his campaign's recent attempts to portray Obama as too young and inexperienced to lead the nation."

    "Speaking before a boisterous crowd of 500 who gathered for a town-hall-style meeting here, McCain accused his Democratic rival of ignoring the successes of the U.S. troop buildup in Iraq and suggested that Obama was ignorant of the facts. 'To say that we failed in Iraq and we're not succeeding does not comport with the facts on the ground, so we've got to show him the facts on the ground,' McCain said."

    But after this McCain attack came this news from the New York Times' Zeleny: Obama has been considering a trip to Iraq. "Senator Barack Obama said today that he is considering visiting American troops and commanders in Iraq this summer. He declined an invitation from Senator John McCain to take a joint trip to Iraq, saying, 'I just don't want to be involved in a political stunt.' In a brief interview here, Mr. Obama said his campaign was considering taking a foreign trip after he secures the Democratic presidential nomination. No details have been set, he said, but added: 'Iraq would obviously be at the top of the list of stops.'" 

    "For weeks, aides to Mr. Obama have been quietly discussing a foreign trip, but the long Democratic nominating fight has delayed making any concrete plans. Now, with only five months remaining until the general election, it remains unclear whether there will be time to take such a trip. Mr. Obama suggested today that any foreign itinerary would include a stop in Iraq." 

    McCain used this news to once again hammer Obama. At an avail yesterday in California, McCain said that Obama taking a trip to Iraq is long overdue, per NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann: "It's been 871 days since he was there. And I'm confident that when he goes he will then change his position on the conflict in Iraq because he will see the success that has been achieved on the ground."

    NBC/NJ's Athena Jones notes that Obama's campaign neither confirmed nor denied that he was considering a trip to Iraq. Obama spokesperson Jen Psaki said: "A trip abroad is under consideration. There are no plans at this point." She added that Iraq was a place he would consider.

    Obama said this about the issue: "I haven't seen McCain's comments today. But I was asked about the Republicans trying to make the issue of frequency of visiting Iraq, and what I said was that the Republicans don't have a strong position to argue when it comes to substance. Their foreign policy has been a failure over the last eight years. The war in Iraq was a huge strategic blunder, our standing in the world is diminished, we've spend hundreds of billions of dollars and lost thousands of lives, Afghanistan is in worst shape than anytime since 2001 and we have Osama bin Laden sending out audio tapes, so it's not surprising they're not going to want to argue the substance of what's happened in their foreign policy. They're going to come up with diversions. But I think the American people are going to be a lot more interested in whether or now we're focused on the problems."

  • Flor-igan: Protest time

    Both the New York Times and Los Angeles Times note that the Clinton campaign is not discouraging protests on their behalf on Saturday, while the Obama campaign is doing just that. "Clinton loyalists are expected to demonstrate outside the hotel. The Obama campaign has urged its supporters to stand down. 'We don't think it's a helpful dynamic to create chaos,' said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager. 'In the interest of party unity, we're encouraging our supporters not to protest.'"

    Here's more from the Washington Post: "Saturday's pro-Clinton event is being co-organized by the Women Count PAC -- founded by five top Clinton supporters, including longtime friend and fundraiser Susie Tompkins Buell -- and a coalition of disparate other groups working under the umbrella of Count Every Vote '08. Organizers said that they expect people to come from 26 states for the rally, as well as some major celebrity speakers, and that they are receiving logistical assistance or other support from the pro-Clinton United Federation of Teachers and Emily's List."

    "Count Every Vote '08 first came together in mid-March to lobby Democratic superdelegates on behalf of Clinton. Allida M. Black, project director and editor of the Eleanor Roosevelt papers at George Washington University, joined with Tompkins Buell to start Women Count PAC two weeks ago. They raised more than $250,000 and used the money to buy newspaper ads, including ones that ran in the New York Times over the weekend calling on female readers to attend Saturday's rally."   

    "[T]he Democratic National Committee issued a statement that said the lawyers' memo was not an official recommendation," the Boston Globe writes. "'The staff analysis is intentionally neutral; it does not make specific recommendations,' the statement said. 'The analysis lays out a rules framework for each challenge, and the issues raised within each challenge. The analysis maintains that the RBC did have proper authority and jurisdiction in imposing the 100% sanction. The RBC had wide latitude in that decision." 
     
    "'The document also examines the 50% automatic sanction and how to implement such a sanction: Under this scenario, one option would be to reduce the total number of delegates by half; the second option for consideration by the RBC would be to reduce the delegation's votes by half, so that each delegate gets a half vote,' the statement continues. 'We look forward to a thorough discussion of these issues at the Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting this Saturday, May 31st in Washington, DC.' Senior Clinton aides disputed the notion that the DNC lawyers memo requires punishing Florida and Michigan with the loss of at least half their delegates, saying that was only one option available to the rules committee."

    "Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she will step in if necessary to make sure the presidential nomination fight between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama does not reach the Democratic National Convention -- though she believes it could be resolved as early as next week," the San Francisco Chronicle writes. "Pelosi predicted Wednesday that a presidential nominee will emerge in the week after the final Democratic primaries on June 3, but she said 'I will step in' if there is no resolution by late June regarding the seating of delegates from Florida and Michigan, the two states that defied party rules by holding early primaries."

    Do realize that Pelosi probably holds sway over anywhere from 20-40 superdelegates…

  • Clinton: My only friend, the end…

    The New York Times seems to be signaling that the end is near. "Clinton was accompanied by a skeleton crew of aides and a diminished press corps Wednesday as she continued to tour some of the remotest parts of America. After a tourist stop at Mount Rushmore, she drove nearly three hours across the desolate Badlands to the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation and made her electability argument to a somewhat bewildered crowd of about 250 people outside the Little Wound School. 'I believe the electoral votes that I will win make a very strong argument,' she said. 'Look at the states I won and will win. These are the states that form the base of a Democratic victory.'"

    "But there was also an elegiac tone to some of her remarks. 'I view my run for president as a solemn obligation,' she said. 'I don't run for president because I need any more publicity. I don't run for president because I need the adulation or the celebrity. I don't run for president to live in the White House. That was a wonderful experience, but that's not why I run. I run because I believe we can do so much better for our country. The unkept promises are corrosive.'"

    Clinton offered no clues as to her future after June 3, but she had a reflective tone as she made a rare visit to the back of her campaign plane to chat with reporters at the end of the day yesterday, NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli reports. "You know, I feel so good about the process," said Clinton, glass of wine in hand. "I feel that this has been a really positive, productive primary season in so many ways. And you know, I put some of that in the memo [to superdelegates] about the numbers of people that have been brought in. Millions of people who have registered who never voted, who never participated."
     
    She said that she thought her party could make future primaries "more sensible," but that given the current rules she is confident still. "We'll see what the Rules and Bylaws Committee does with Michigan and Florida. We'll see what happens Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota. And then we'll see where we are."

    The New York Post piles on. In a lighthearted stop at Mount Rushmore at reporters' behest, the Post puts it all on its cover with a photo of Clinton framed with the presidents on the mountain top and the headline: "Rock Bottom."

    The AP gets a quote from that Virgin Islands superdelegate who originally supported Clinton, then jumped ship to Obama, and then switched back to Clinton just two weeks after having switched to Obama. "I decided to switch because that's my right," Kevin Rodriguez said. "I don't want to say why I decided. It's not about me ... It's about America and what's best for America."
     
    Cecil Benjamin, Virgin Islands Democratic Party chairman, reached by First Read Wednesday morning, had not heard Rodriguez had switched again and expressed disbelief. "I doubt that very much," Benjamin told us, adding that he's spoken to him just last week and he was still supporting Obama. "I don't think he's such a fool and would make himself such a mimic when all the superdelegates are moving to Obama."
     
    Asked by the AP "whether he might switch allegiances again, Rodriquez replied: 'I don't know.'"

  • McCain: Flip-flopping on wiretapping?

    The Washington Post reports on a potential issue flip by McCain, "A top lawyer for Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign said telecommunications companies should be forced to explain their role in the Bush administration's warrantless surveillance program as a condition for legal immunity for past wiretapping, a statement that stands in marked contrast to positions taken by President Bush, McCain and other Republicans in Congress."

    "'There would need to be hearings, real hearings, to find out what actually happened, what harms actually occurred, rather than some sort of sweeping of things under the rug,' Chuck Fish, a former vice president and chief patent counsel at Time Warner, said last week at the Computers, Freedom and Privacy conference in New Haven, Conn., according to an audiotape available on the conference Web site. 'That would be absolutely verboten in a McCain administration.'"

    "The comments -- first noted last week on the blog of the technology magazine Wired -- contradict McCain's voting record, and they are almost certain to disrupt negotiations between Democratic leaders in Congress and Bush administration officials, who are seeking blanket immunity for the telecoms' cooperation with the surveillance program." 

    The AP also fact-checks McCain on nuclear weapons. "John McCain's nuclear proposals are largely in line with those of the unpopular President Bush, and even where the two disagree, the Republican presidential candidate has waffled. Like the president, McCain favors extending arms control deals with Russia, opening strategic nuclear talks with China and pressing on multiple fronts to limit the spread of nuclear arms technologies. The most notable difference is perhaps the Arizona Republican's declaration that he dreams of seeing nuclear weapons eliminated. Yet even on that point McCain equivocated by also stating in his nuclear policy speech Tuesday that 'we must continue to deploy a safe and reliable nuclear deterrent.'"

    As we noted was possible last week, the Washington Post notes how McCain may have unintentionally alienated evangelicals when he rebuked Revs. Hagee and Parsley. "'He wants us to support him, but as soon as his back was against the wall, he overreacted. He is now less likely to get the evangelical vote and will have a difficult time getting strong endorsements from other ministers,' said Bishop Harry R. Jackson Jr., founder and chairman of the High Impact Leadership Coalition, an evangelical group that advises ministers on political and policy issues."

    "'For McCain to have to repudiate these people is much worse than ever having their endorsement in the first place,' said Doug Wead, a political consultant who ranked 1,000 evangelical pastors for former president George H.W. Bush to court for endorsements. 'If evangelical Christians feel this is an attack on them, even if they don't agree with Parsley and Hagee or follow them, it could galvanize them against McCain." 

    Sens. Lieberman and Graham "stepped down Wednesday from their positions with an independent group that released a pair of Internet advertisements attacking Senator Barack Obama on Iraq," the New York Times says. "Mr. Lieberman, independent of Connecticut, and Mr. Graham, Republican of South Carolina, were both on the policy advisory board to the  organization, Vets for Freedom, which on Wednesday released its second Web advertisement in less than a week attacking Mr. Obama."

    "The senators' positions with the group, which describes itself as a grass-roots advocacy organization pushing for victory in Iraq and Afghanistan, seemed to place them in contravention of new conflict-of-interest rules released by Mr. McCain's campaign that specifically prohibit anyone 'with a McCain campaign title or position' from participating in a '527 or other independent entity that makes public communications that support or oppose any presidential candidate.'"

    Speaking of both Lieberman and Hagee… While McCain denounced and rejected Hagee, McCain BFF Joe Lieberman isn't quite ready to throw him under the proverbial bus. Per NBC's Ken Strickland, Lieberman yesterday called past comments by Hagee "deeply unacceptable and hurtful." Yet in the same written statement, he said he still plans to attend Hagee's summit in July to "make it clear that it is imperative that our language is always respectful and tolerant of all of our fellow citizens." He also said, "Pastor Hagee has devoted much of his life to fighting anti-Semitism and building bridges between Christians and Jews."

  • Obama: A dearth of policy?

    The Washington Post has a story that will keep the McCain and RNC press shops humming today. It's about Obama's lack of policy proposals. "Obama has not emphasized any signature domestic issue, or signaled that he would take his party in a specific direction on policy, as Bill Clinton did with his 'New Democrat" proposals in 1992 that emphasized welfare reform or as George W. Bush did with his 'compassionate conservatism' in 2000, when he called on Republicans to focus more on issues such as education."

    "Obama's campaign is 'clearly politically transformative, it's clearly from a policy standpoint been cautious,' said James K. Galbraith, a liberal activist and economist at the University of Texas at Austin who had backed former senator John Edwards in the early primaries."

    More: "David Axelrod, Obama's top political adviser, said that the campaign will devote more staff members to policy (there are now seven) and that the senator's speeches will increasingly highlight his proposals. 'The next six months is going to be about competing visions for this country,' he said. 'Obama is looking forward, and his policies will reflect that.'"

    "Obama's domestic policy proposals, including expanding health care to all Americans and offering tax cuts for the middle class while raising taxes for those who make more than $250,000 a year, differ little from those that Clinton and other Democrats have proposed during the primaries. His ideas for solving the nation's housing crisis are similar to those of congressional Democrats, offering aid to people who cannot pay their mortgages and proposing a second economic stimulus package." 

    For how many months has Obama had to clarify those comments about rogue leaders he'd meet with? The New York Times is the latest to jump on this again. "In an interview on Wednesday, Mr. Obama, of Illinois, sought to emphasize, as he and his aides have done continually over the last few days, the difference between avoiding preconditions for talks with nations like Iran and Syria, and granting them automatic discussions at the presidential level. While Mr. Obama has said he would depart from the Bush administration policy of refusing to meet with certain nations unless they meet preconditions, he has also said he would reserve the right to choose which leaders he would meet, should he choose to meet with them at all."

    "The issue presents one of Mr. Obama's biggest political and policy tests yet as he appears headed toward a general-election contest against Senator John McCain of Arizona: How to continue to add nuance to a policy argument that he views as a winning one, without playing into a fierce round of accusations that he is either shifting positions or appeasing the enemy." 

    Reuters writes, "Talking to reporters on his plane from Denver to Chicago, Obama was asked if the race for the November general election against Republican John McCain begins after Tuesday's votes. 'Yes,' he responded. Asked if he will be the winner of the Democratic nomination at that point, he said, 'I believe so.' The Illinois senator, 46, predicted he would be in a 'pretty strong position' to clinch the nomination after a Saturday meeting by party officials and Tuesday's votes."

    The Washington Post reports that the "co-director of Barack Obama's presidential campaign in Puerto Rico is a Washington-based federal lobbyist for the government of Puerto Rico. Ethics watchdogs said that the high-profile role of Francisco J. Pavía appears to contradict the Obama campaign's ethics guidelines, which forbid federal lobbyists from working on staff. But Obama spokesman Bill Burton said Pavía is an 'active volunteer' -- not a paid staffer -- and can hold the job without running afoul of the campaign's rules."

    More: "'It sounds like a conflict with Obama's policy,' said Melanie Sloan of the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. 'They need to provide an explanation.' Burton said that Pavía's role with the campaign was permissible but that the rules were not airtight. 'This is not a perfect solution to the influence of special interests in Washington,' he said. 'But it is a symbol of the effort that Senator Obama is going to make to decrease the influence that the special interests do have.'" 

    Bloomberg News looks at Obama's potential downballot effect. "In 2006, Ohio Republican Representative Steve Chabot barely survived the electoral drag of the Iraq War, congressional scandals and an unpopular president. Barack Obama's presidential candidacy this year may deliver a knockout blow."

    "More than a quarter of the voters in Chabot's Cincinnati district are black, the highest concentration for any incumbent House Republican in a competitive race this fall. Obama's likely spot at the top of the Democratic ticket may fuel a surge in turnout among black voters that could help the party pick up a half-dozen new House seats."

    Kerry pollster Mark Mellman pens a New York Times op-ed that makes the case that Obama is doing better with white working class voters than either Kerry or Gore.

  • Bush White House: Pushback on Scott

    The New York Times' Stohlberg notes the campaign against McClellan. "The result was a kind of public excommunication of Mr. McClellan, waged by some of the people with whom he once worked most closely, among them Karl Rove, the political strategist; Frances Fragos Townsend, the former domestic security adviser; Ari Fleischer, Mr. Bush's first press secretary; and Dan Bartlett, the former counselor to the president. Their cries of betrayal served as a stern warning to other potential turncoats that, despite some well-publicized cracks, the Bush inner circle remains tight. Their language was so similar that the collective reaction amounted to one big inside-the-Beltway echo chamber."

    "All seemed to take their cues from Dana Perino, the current press secretary. Ms. Perino used the words 'sad' and 'puzzled' to describe the White House response, as if Mr. McClellan had undergone some kind of emotional breakdown, while making the case that if Mr. McClellan had problems with Mr. Bush, he should have raised them while in the president's employ."

    The Washington Post has an interesting nugget regarding the spin being used against McClellan -- that was once used BY McClellan. "When he was press secretary, McClellan made some of the same arguments against other ex-officials that he now faces. In 2004, for example, former counterterrorism adviser Richard A. Clarke published a book sharply critical of Bush's anti-terrorism policies. 'Why, all of a sudden, if he had all these grave concerns, did he not raise these sooner?' McClellan said. 'This is 1 1/2 years after he left the administration… He is bringing this up in the heat of a presidential campaign. He has written a book, and he certainly wants to go out there and promote that book." 

  • Veepstakes: Bloomberg criticizes all three

    New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg hit all three active presidential candidates for their inability to stand up to special interests all the time. "All three are senators. I think if you look at their voting records, all three have shown instances where they have stood up to special interests and, sadly, all three have also signed on to a lot of these special-interest bills,' the mayor said, though he did not provide any specific examples."

    "Mayor Bloomberg delivered his evaluation at a news conference that followed his keynote address at the World Science Summit, a gathering of scientists, academics, entrepreneurs and government officials at Columbia University. In the address, he challenged Congress to lift all tariffs on biofuels like sugar-based ethanol, which he said is cheaper to produce and generates less carbon dioxide than the corn-based ethanol made in the United States."

  • Bill pitches popular vote

    From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
    SAN JUAN, P.R. -- Bill Clinton also said winning the popular vote "will prove she's the popular choice of the Democrats," despite ending with less delegates than Obama, the former president said in an impromptu press conference on the streets of Old San Juan.
     
    "And the party will have to decide whether they believe the caucuses -- where you get about one delegate for 2000 votes -- are more important than the primaries where you get one for 12,000," he said. "And that this really astonishing race, where both have run amazing campaigns, they're gonna have to decide how to resolve this.
     
    "But at least she will have been able to make her best case there," he said.
     
    Clinton also reiterated his calls for delegates from Florida and Michigan to be seated by the Democratic National Committee when it meets this weekend.
     
    "We should find a way to let everybody vote and have all the votes be counted and have a decent and honorable slate of delegations from Florida and Michigan," Clinton said. "Those people are important to our future. It's hard to imagine how we bring America back without their involvement and it's hard to imagine how a Democrat could run for president without their support. So she, Hillary's for them to be seated and to be seated in a fair way all the way along. She's offered to go there and run again, that was turned down. She's offered everything in the world to help them, so I think it's up to the Democratic committee to do the right thing."
     
    Clinton was mobbed through the narrow streets of the Puerto Rican capital's shopping district. Local police and Secret Service formed rope lines on each side of the street, and the former president and daughter Chelsea walked several block shaking hands.
     
    The crowd was so loud that most of the president's answers to press questions were inaudible. The campaign arranged for a second press conference several blocks away, so Clinton could promote Hillary's trip back to Puerto Rico this weekend.
     
    He said he was gratified by recent polls showing Clinton winning in Puerto Rico.
     
    Earlier in the day, he and Chelsea visited with students at a photojournalism school for children. Flash bulbs illuminated the stage as most of the students took pictures of the president as he spoke and invited them to shoot Hillary's Friday night rally in San Juan. At the end, he was presented a camera and began shooting his own images of the children.

  • Clinton argues Native rights, electability

    From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
    KYLE, S.D. -- In a somber speech before a small crowd on the Pine Ridge Indian reservation, Hillary Clinton again pledged that Indian Country "will have a seat at the table in my White House." She also argued that the "ultimate question" facing primary voters is which candidate can win in November.
     
    "It is so close, neither of us have the number of delegates necessary to be the nominee," she said. "We have three more contests in Puerto Rico Sunday, in Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday. We have to resolve Michigan and Illinois. I mean Michigan and Florida. And then what we have to do is determine who would be the best president, and who would be the stronger candidate against Sen. McCain. I believe I am, and I believe the states that I have won and the electoral votes I will win make a very strong argument for that."
     
    Interestingly, as Republicans have begun criticizing Barack Obama for not having visited Iraq since 2006, Clinton mentioned that she has visited both Iraq and Afghanistan with the Arizona senator. Her last visit was in early 2007.
     
    "I have the deepest respect for his service to our country," Clinton said of McCain. "But he offers four more years of the same -- the same failed economic policies and the same failed policy in Iraq. We need a change. The question for people who want to see a Democrat sworn in as president next January is who is most likely to win. That is the ultimate question to ask yourselves, because if you look at the electoral map, if you look at the sates I have won, these are the states that form the base of a Democratic victory."
     
    As Clinton began her speech here, in the poorest county in the nation, she said she didn't come to "make a big speech," adding that the people here have "seen too many speeches" and heard "too many words that never translated into reality."
     
    "I don't run for president because I need any more publicity," she said. "I don't run for president because I need the adulation or the celebrity. I don't run for president to live in the White House again. … I run because I believe that we can do so much better in our country, and that the unkept promises are corrosive. They undermine trust and accountability. They begin to eat away at what should be the relationship between our people and our government, and between government to government in Indian Country.

    "So I'm here to make a solemn pledge, a pledge I have done my best to honor already as your first lady and as a senator, a pledge I will continue to honor as your president. I will be your champion. I will fight for you. I will stand up for you. And I will work my heart out for you."

  • Day in Delegates: Obama 4-0

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    The only bit of superdelegate movement since First Thoughts today was the endorsement of Oregon Democratic Party Chairwoman Meredith Wood Smith for Obama. She penned an op-ed in support of the Illinois senator. (Wood Smith is in addition to the two others we named in First Thoughts: Ben Pangelin from Guam and Pat Waak from Colorado. We adjusted the headline to reflect the day's gain.)

    The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts:
    PLEDGED: Obama 1649 to 1500
    SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 319.5 to 283.5
    EDWARDS PL.: Obama 12 to 0
    TOTAL: Obama 1,980.5 to 1,783.5.
     
    * Obama is now 45.5 delegates away from 2,026.

    *** UPDATE *** Another Oregon superdelegate for Obama -- Wayne Kinney. There are five from Oregon uncommitted, including a still unnamed add-on. (Numbers adjusted above.)

  • Hillary at Mount Rushmore

    From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
    MOUNT RUSHMORE, S.D. -- When the traveling press learned we'd be staying near Mount Rushmore overnight, some asked if we could make a quick trip before heading off for the day. The campaign obliged, arranging an early morning bus ride for those interested. Then late last night we learned there was another interested party: Sen. Hillary Clinton.

    So Clinton and her entourage visited the national landmark this morning, surprising some tourists who never expected to see the presidential candidate.

    "We got fogged in yesterday, and I'm so glad we did," a North Carolina woman told Clinton.

    Clinton stood before the four former presidents and listened in as a park ranger explained some of the history. At one point, she was asked if she could one day picture herself up there. She smirked and shook her head as she contemplated whether to offer a quick soundbite.

    "I …" she started to say, before throwing her hands up.

    "You think Bill Clinton should be up there?" another reporter asked.

    "Why don't you learn something about the monument," Clinton finally said, before walking away to greet some more tourists. (AP's photos of Clinton there.)

    Later, a reporter attempted to get a quick reaction from the New York senator to some of the claims in former White House spokesman Scott McClellan's book. But Clinton, who has not held a formal press conference in two weeks, ignored the question.

  • McCain unloads on Obama

    From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
    RENO, Nev. -- McCain went after Obama at a town hall today, asking why Obama would sit down with Iran's president but won't sit down with the leader of our troops.

    McCain also hit Obama over his one visit to Iraq and says the Illinois senator has "never seized the opportunity" to meet with Gen. Petraeus except for a hearing in Washington.

    McCain argued that Obama has not done enough to learn what's happening on the ground. He read from an Obama campaign statement that dismissed McCain's offer to visit Iraq together as a "political stunt."

    "That is a profound misunderstanding of what's happened in Iraq and what's at stake in Iraq," McCain retorted.

    McCain also picked up a Clinton attack line that Obama has held no hearings on Afghanistan as chairman of a foreign relations subcommittee. Obama is chairman of the subcommittee on European Affairs, which, Clinton argued, could hold hearings on NATO, which has troops in Afghanistan.

    The McCain campaign's criticism of Obama's single pre-surge trip to Iraq originated on Sunday, when surrogate Sen. Lindsey Graham raised the issue and proposed a joint McCain-Obama trip to the region as a solution. (McCain has visited eight times to Obama's one.) 

    McCain told the Associated Press on Monday that he would hope to use such a venture to "educate" Obama. Today, the Republican National Committee joined in, posting a clock of the days elapsed since the likely Democratic nominee visited Iraq.
     
    McCain also reiterated that appeal in this gymnasium festooned with American flags, saying of the proposed trip with Obama, "I would be glad to go with him because these issues are far more important than any election. The security of this nation is far more important than any political campaign."
     
    "I will never surrender in Iraq," he added, "I will not let that happen."

    *** UPDATE *** The Obama campaign responds: "On the day after the former White House press secretary conceded that the Bush administration used deception and propaganda to take us to war, it seems odd that Senator McCain, who bought the flawed rationale for war so readily, would be lecturing others on their depth of understanding about Iraq," Obama spokesman Bill Burton said. "Senator Obama challenged the President's rationale for the war from the start, warning that it would divert resources from Afghanistan and the pursuit of Al Qaeda and mire us in an endless civil war. Senator McCain stubbornly insists on pursuing the failed Bush policy that continues to cost so much, while Senator Obama believes it's time to begin a deliberate, careful strategy to remove our troops and compel the Iraqis to take responsibility for their own future."

  • Obama jumps in McClellan pool

    From NBC's Mark Hudspeth and Domenico Montanaro
    The Obama campaign decided to weigh in on the McClellan book. The campaign uses it as another reason to pivot to McCain on foreign policy and to link Bush and the presumptive Republican nominee.

    "It's not news that this Administration engaged in spin and deception to lead us into a war that should've never been authorized and never been waged, the only question now is, do we continue George Bush's failed policy in Iraq or do we change it?" Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan said in a statement. "John McCain is promising four more years of the exact same policy in Iraq that asks everything of our brave troops and nothing of the Iraqi government, while Barack Obama wants to begin a phased withdrawal of our troops and refocus our efforts on going after al-Qaeda in Afghanistan."

    *** UPDATE *** NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger reports Bill Clinton said of the book, "I haven't seen it. I haven't seen it, but I think, from what I read, it seems to confirm what Joe Wilson has always said about his own experience. And it shows all the more why it's important that we change the direction of the country and pick the best president. "

  • The DNC's gaffe list for McCain

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    Responding to today's earlier RNC research memo that listed several of Obama's misstatements and gaffes, the DNC has released its own list for McCain -- what it calls McCain's "Top 10 misstatements and outright deceptions."

    1. McCain doesn't even know who is in charge in Iran.
    2. Iraq/Iran, Sunni/Shia: McCain doesn't know the difference.
    3. McCain still thinks Czechoslovakia (which split into two countries in 1993) exists.
    4. McCain wrongly claimed that Baghdad was mostly normal.
    5. McCain called Baghdad market safe.
    6. McCain can't even remember how little he knows about the economy
    7. McCain falsely claimed he never requested pork.
    8. McCain falsely claimed that tax cuts increased government revenues.
    9. McCain's claim to be untainted by special interest money is false.
    10. McCain wrongly claimed he never supported amnesty.

  • Rendell wants Clinton on ticket

    From NBC's Brian Mooar
    Pennsylvania Gov. and top Clinton backer Ed Rendell says he believes Obama is considering her as running mate, and Hillary should take it -- if she doesn't win.

    He was asked the question in Arlington, Va., at the end of a news conference on the home foreclosure crisis.

    Q: Should Hillary take the VP slot?
    RENDELL: [laughter]

    Q: You referenced Doris Kearns Goodwin's book.
    RENDELL: Yeah (laughs)

    Q: Was that a hint?
    RENDELL: Yeah -- I think so. I've said it before. I think when Sen. Obama was asked the question, he went out of his way to mention "Team of Rivals," and if you read that book, Lincoln did a great thing by bringing his strongest rivals, who were the most competent people in America, into the government. I don't think he said it -- I know Sen. Obama -- He doesn't say anything by accident.

    Q: Do you think she should take it?
    RENDELL: I do -- if she doesn't win the nomination. Watch Puerto Rico, and watch South Dakota.

  • Obama camp hopes to avoid 'circus'

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    The Obama campaign called for unity at Saturday's meeting, as aides said they hope avoid a "circus"-like atmosphere. Pro-Clinton protests, however, are expected outside the meeting.

    "We are not encouraging our people to gather and protest," Campaign Manager David Plouffe said in a conference call with reporters, adding this warning shot. "With a click of a mouse in the Mid-Atlantic, we could get thousands of people there. But in the interest of party unity we are not encouraging a protest. We don't think a scene is helpful as we try to bring the party together."

    The campaign has sent an e-mail to supporters making sure that message is loud and clear, and Plouffe said there will also be a message on the Obama campaign Web site. "We're trying to send a signal that what we don't need is an unhelpful scene here at the close of the nomination fight."

    They also attempted to juxtapose their willingness to compromise with the Clinton camp's hard line on getting the delegates seated 100 percent according to the results of the discounted January primaries in Florida and Michigan. That's something Plouffe said is "not a position people find terribly reasonable."

    "We don't think it's fair to seat them fully," Plouffe said. "We both played by the rules. We are willing to give them some delegates. They're out there saying no compromise. We're saying compromise. And I thnk that's where most of the party is."

    Obama is on a "healthy moral high ground," said Obama supporter David Wilhelm, a former Democratic National Committee and Ohio superdelegate. "He's acting clearly in the interest of promoting party unity. No Obama folks will be protesting. We're not going to turn this thing into a circus. We're willing to compromise."

    Former Michigan congressman David Bonior said, "We're willing to bend and to go to get to where we need to to take on McCain in the general election."

    Obama supporters from Florida are hopeful for a resolution and sought to pivot to the issues of the economy, housing, health care and the war.

    "Democrats are uniting in Florida behind Sen. Obama," Congressman Robert Wexler said. "We hope that the DNC will take this opportunity to bring finality to the question of Florida's attendance at the Democratic convention, and Sen. Obama supports a compromise to make sure Florida is in attendance and at the convention."

    Rep. Kathy Castor added, "I'm really looking forward to a resolution on Saturday and moving on to the general election. It looks like the rules committee is moving toward a 50 percent solution with full delegation in attendance. They're on the right track there. The 50 percent number is in the rules, and that should have been the way the DNC should have handled it all along -- rather than put us through this rigmarole."

    "We need to come up with a compromise so we can move on from here," Plouffe said. "There's a lot of interest in both of these states in moving on to the general election."

    NOTES: On Clinton claim of having won the popular vote, Plouffe turned the tables and claimed the popular vote, saying Michigan and Florida should not be factored into that because Obama did not campaign in Florida and his name was not on the ballot…

    Also, asked if the campaign is stockpiling superdelegates, Plouffe said, "That's not accurate. We announce superdelegates as people commit to us. We are announcing them as they report to us. … We do not have superdelegates in our back pocket. The pace of movement to us, we're very pleased by, but no that's not an accurate statement."

  • Clinton's final pitch

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    With the delegate math -- plus more and more superdelegates -- looking to be on Obama's side, Hillary Clinton is making what seems to be a final pitch to all superdelegates before the last primary contests that end on June 3.

    Her argument: that she's more electable than Obama is.

    "Recent polls and election results show a clear trend: I am ahead in states that have been critical to victory in the past two elections," Clinton writes in a letter to these superdelegates. "From Ohio, to Pennsylvania, to West Virginia and beyond, the results of recent primaries in battleground states show that I have strong support from the regions and demographics Democrats need to take back the White House. I am also currently ahead of Senator McCain in Gallup national tracking polls, while Senator Obama is behind him. And nearly all independent analyses show that I am in a stronger position to win the Electoral College, primarily because I lead Senator McCain in Florida and Ohio."

    She adds, "In addition, when the primaries are finished, I expect to lead in the popular vote and in delegates earned through primaries. [Note: It appears she is ignoring caucus contests.] Ultimately, the point of our primary process is to pick our strongest nominee -- the one who would be the best president and commander in chief, who has the greatest support from members of our party, and who is most likely to win in November. So I hope you will consider not just the strength of the coalition backing me, but also that more people will have cast their votes for me."

    Clinton concludes, "Finally, I am in this race because I believe staying in this race will help unite the Democratic Party. I believe that if Senator Obama and I both make our case -- and all Democrats have the chance to make their voices heard -- everyone will be more likely to rally around the nominee. In the end, I am committed to unifying this party.  What Senator Obama and I share is so much greater than our differences; and no matter who wins this nomination, I will do everything I can to bring us together and move us forward."

    "But at this point, neither of us has crossed the finish line. I hope that in the time remaining, you will think hard about which candidate has the best chance to lead our party to victory in November." 

    In today's earlier conference call, Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson was asked whether the campaign believes Obama is unelectable. Wolfson responded, "Could he win? Of course he could win. But he is currently not winning against John McCain."

    "Sen. Clinton is winning and will win."

    Clinton's full letter to superdelegates is below...

    Dear ___________,

    The stakes in this election are so high: with two wars abroad, our economy in crisis here at home, and so many families struggling across America, the need for new leadership has never been greater. 

    At this point, we do not yet have a nominee – and when the last votes are cast on June 3, neither Senator Obama nor I will have secured the nomination.  It will be up to automatic delegates like you to help choose our party's nominee, and I would like to tell you why I believe I am the stronger candidate against Senator McCain and would be the best President and Commander in Chief.

    Voters in every state have made it clear that they want to be heard and counted as part of this historic race.  And as we reach the end of the primary season, more than 17 million people have supported me in my effort to become the Democratic nominee – more people than have ever voted for a potential nominee in the history of our party.  In the past two weeks alone, record numbers of voters participated in the West Virginia and Kentucky primaries.  And with 40 and 35 point margins of victory, it is clear that even when voters are repeatedly told this race is over, they're not giving up on me – and I am not giving up on them either.

    After seven years of feeling invisible to the Bush administration, Americans are seeking a President who is strong, experienced, and ready to take on our toughest challenges, from serving as Commander in Chief and ending the war in Iraq to turning our economy around.  They want a President who shares their core beliefs about our country and its future and "gets" what they go through every day to care for their families, pay the bills and try to put something away for the future.

    We simply cannot afford another four – or eight – years in the wilderness.  That is why, everywhere I go, people come up to me, grip my hand or arm, and urge me to keep on running.  That is why I continue in this race: because I believe I am best prepared to lead this country as President – and best prepared to put together a broad coalition of voters to break the lock Republicans have had on the electoral map and beat Senator McCain in November.

    Recent polls and election results show a clear trend: I am ahead in states that have been critical to victory in the past two elections.  From Ohio, to Pennsylvania, to West Virginia and beyond, the results of recent primaries in battleground states show that I have strong support from the regions and demographics Democrats need to take back the White House.  I am also currently ahead of Senator McCain in Gallup national tracking polls, while Senator Obama is behind him.  And nearly all independent analyses show that I am in a stronger position to win the Electoral College, primarily because I lead Senator McCain in Florida and Ohio.  I've enclosed a detailed analysis of recent electoral and polling information, and I hope you will take some time to review it carefully. 

    In addition, when the primaries are finished, I expect to lead in the popular vote and in delegates earned through primaries.  Ultimately, the point of our primary process is to pick our strongest nominee – the one who would be the best President and Commander in Chief, who has the greatest support from members of our party, and who is most likely to win in November.  So I hope you will consider not just the strength of the coalition backing me, but also that more people will have cast their votes for me.

    I am in this race for them -- for all the men and women I meet who wake up every day and work hard to make a difference for their families.  People who deserve a shot at the American dream – the chance to save for college, a home and retirement; to afford quality health care for their families; to fill the gas tank and buy the groceries with a little left over each month.

    I am in this race for all the women in their nineties who've told me they were born before women could vote, and they want to live to see a woman in the White House.  For all the women who are energized for the first time, and voting for the first time.  For the little girls – and little boys – whose parents lift them onto their shoulders at our rallies, and whisper in their ears, "See, you can be anything you want to be."  As the first woman ever to be in this position, I believe I have a responsibility to them.

    Finally, I am in this race because I believe staying in this race will help unite the Democratic Party.  I believe that if Senator Obama and I both make our case – and all Democrats have the chance to make their voices heard – everyone will be more likely to rally around the nominee.

    In the end, I am committed to unifying this party.  What Senator Obama and I share is so much greater than our differences; and no matter who wins this nomination, I will do everything I can to bring us together and move us forward.

    But at this point, neither of us has crossed the finish line.  I hope that in the time remaining, you will think hard about which candidate has the best chance to lead our party to victory in November.  I hope you will consider the results of the recent primaries and what they tell us about the mindset of voters in the key battleground states.  I hope you will think about the broad and winning coalition of voters I have built.  And most important, I hope you will think about who is ready to stand on that stage with Senator McCain, fight for the deepest principles of our party, and lead our country forward into this new century. 

     

     

     

     

    Clinton camp not backing down on FL, MI
    From NBC's Mark Murray and Andrea Mitchell
    In advance of Saturday's DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee hearing on Florida and Michigan, the Clinton campaign held a conference call with reporters, repeating its claim that it wants nothing less than a 100% seating of those state's delegations to the Democratic convention.

    In the call, Clinton adviser Harold Ickes -- who serves on the DNC's Rules committee -- stated: 1) that the primary contests that occurred in those states need to be recognized; 2) that the pledged delegates allocated from those contests must reflect those voters' will; and 3) that the states' full delegations be seated at the convention.

    "We fully expect that these issues will be resolved on Saturday," Ickes said.

    "Resolved in our favor," interjected Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson.

    Tina Flournoy, a Rules committee member and Clinton supporter, added on the call:

    Asked during the Q&A session if the Clinton campaign was willing to compromise -- the conventional wisdom is that Florida and Michigan will be punished by having their delegations cut by 50%, a proposal that the Obama campaign seems open to -- Ickes replied, "We are going to go to the committee with our position." He added that 2.3 million voters from Florida and Michigan "cannot be swept aside."

    Also asked how the DNC could maintain calendar discipline in 2012 and 2016 if Florida and Michigan aren't somehow penalized, Flournoy said that no state in the future would want to go through what these states have gone through -- so the punishment had already taken place.

    In addition, Flournoy rejected the suggestion that she and Ickes have a conflict of interest by sitting on the committee since they are connected to Clinton's campaign. She said she has been either a Rules committee staffer or member for 20 years -- and that there are others on the committee who are Obama supporters.

    And during the Q&A, Flourney disputed the interpretation of DNC memo containing legal guidance for the Rules committee, which seems to suggest that Florida and Michigan must be penalized by losing at least 50% of their delegates. According to Flournoy, the memo says one of two things can happen: that you seat only 50% of the delegations or that you seat the delegations in full but give each delegate just half a vote. "The DNC is saying that the rule can be read either way."

  • FL/MI: Clinton camp not backing down

    From NBC's Mark Murray and Andrea Mitchell
    In advance of Saturday's DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee hearing on Florida and Michigan, the Clinton campaign held a conference call with reporters, repeating its claim that it wants nothing less than a 100% seating of those state's delegations to the Democratic convention.

    In the call, Clinton adviser Harold Ickes -- who serves on the DNC's Rules committee -- stated: 1) that the primary contests that occurred in those states in January need to be recognized; 2) that the pledged delegates allocated from those contests must reflect those voters' will; and 3) that the states' full delegations be seated at the convention.

    "We fully expect that these issues will be resolved on Saturday," Ickes said.

    "Resolved in our favor," interjected Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson.

    Tina Flournoy, a Rules committee member and Clinton supporter, added on the call: "There is one number we're interested in -- that is 2.3 million people having their votes counted."

    Asked during the Q&A session if the Clinton campaign was willing to compromise -- the conventional wisdom is that Florida and Michigan will be punished by having their delegations cut by 50%, a proposal that the Obama campaign seems open to -- Ickes replied, "We are going to go to the committee with our position." He added that 2.3 million voters from Florida and Michigan "cannot be swept aside."

    Also asked how the DNC could maintain calendar discipline in 2012 and 2016 if Florida and Michigan aren't somehow penalized, Flournoy said that no state in the future would want to go through what these states have gone through -- so the punishment had already taken place.

    In addition, Flournoy rejected the suggestion that she and Ickes have a conflict of interest by sitting on the committee since they are connected to Clinton's campaign. She said she has been either a Rules committee staffer or member for 20 years -- and that there are others on the committee who are Obama supporters.

    And during the Q&A, Flourney disputed the interpretation of a DNC memo containing legal guidance for the Rules committee -- which seems to suggest that Florida and Michigan must be penalized by losing at least 50% of their delegates. According to Flournoy, the memo says one of two things can happen: that you seat only 50% of the delegations or that you seat the delegations in full but give each delegate just half a vote. "The DNC is saying that the rule can be read either way."

  • White House reacts to McClellan's book

    From NBC's Les Kretman
    White House press secretary Dana Perino released this statement on Scott McClellan's critical book on the Bush White House:

    "Scott, we now know, is disgruntled about his experience at the White House. For those of us who fully supported him, before, during and after he was press secretary, we are puzzled. It is sad -- this is not the Scott we knew."

    More from Perino: "The book, as reported by the press, has been described to the president. I do not expect a comment from him on it -- he has more pressing matters than to spend time commenting on books by former staffers."

  • The RNC's Obama gaffe list

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    Earlier this morning, pegged to Obama's Auschwitz gaffe, we listed some of Obama's other minor misstatements (saying that JFK had helped bring his father to the US; confusing Sioux City with Sioux Falls; calling Sunrise, FL Sunshine, FL; etc.)

    Well, the Republican National Committee has released its own Obama gaffe list, which also includes:
    -- Obama's claim that the 1965 Selma march brought his parents together (when Obama had been born four years before the march)
    -- His boast that he helped pass legislation regulating the nuclear industry (when that legislation didn't pass the full Senate).

    Again, these are minor misstatements. But it's clear that the RNC is trying to build the case that Obama is a gaffe-prone candidate. Of course, the downside to that strategy is that it gives your own candidate -- McCain -- little room for error, too.

  • First thoughts: Et tu, Scott?

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
    *** Et tu, Scott? The news of Scott McClellan's new book on President Bush -- first reported by the Politico's Mike Allen -- guarantees one thing: There is NO CHANCE Bush fixes his perception problems in the public and the media anytime soon. He's a political pariah, pure and simple. In the book, according to reports, McClellan says that Bush "was not open and forthright on Iraq"; that the president sold the war through a "political propaganda campaign"; that he took a permanent campaign approach to governing; and that the White House mishandled Hurricane Katrina, both governmentally and politically. For McCain, the timing of the news of this book couldn't have been worse. On the very day that the Arizona senator broke with Bush on nuclear proliferation, he not only held a closed-press fundraiser with the president (that produced just one photo-op), but also came news of the McClellan book. Now will come constant cable news chatter about the book, an interview with McClellan himself tomorrow on TODAY, as well as the inevitable questions from the traveling press corps following McCain… Meanwhile, Bush today hits two more fundraisers (in Salt Lake City and Park City, UT) for McCain and the RNC; Romney joins the president at these events.

    VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd gives his first read on how former White House press secretary Scott McClellan's new book may affect McCain's campaign and previews this weekend's DNC Michigan and Florida compromise.

    *** Over the top: As NBC's Tim Russert reported on Nightly News last night, the Obama campaign will claim a majority of all delegates -- whether it's 2,026, 2,210, or a number in between -- next Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. According to our sources, Obama's been making calls on the Hill this week (the place where more undeclared superdelegates live than any other in the country) in an attempt to gather the number he needs, probably around 45 supers in order to declare Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The campaign is hoarding commitments from undeclared superdelegates to hit these magic numbers once the nominating contests come to a close on June 3. The actual choreography, however, hasn't been agreed to yet; it depends on what happens at Saturday's DNC meeting. Here's one scenario: Obama announces enough supers on Monday June 2 to bring him within 10 delegates of the new magic number. Then on Tuesday evening, just as the polls close in Montana, Obama thanks that state for putting him over the top as the small state is one the Obama camp is hoping to put in play for the fall. Sure, it's three electoral votes but every EV may matter if he's got to make up for not winning Florida and (maybe) Ohio.

    VIDEO: NBC's Tim Russert offers his analysis on where things stand heading into the June 3 primaries.

    *** A blueprint for Saturday? Speaking of Saturday's DNC meeting… A packet sent around to members of the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has some neutral opinions about the various challenges. One thing folks ought to not miss is the fact that the DNC rules had called for an automatic 50% delegate cut for states that violate the window. The Rules committee went beyond that -- which was within its rights -- and took away ALL of the delegates. Doesn't this provide the blueprint for what's likely to happen on Saturday -- a reinstatement of 50% of the delegates in both states? In fact, if we're interpreting this right, and if the Rules committee follows the letter of the law on this issue, they can't reinstate 100% of the delegates because of the initial violation. For those following the FL/MI fight closely, realize that a Florida compromise seems to be fairly easy to come to; frameworks are being developed as you read. But Michigan is the real riddle. The biggest impediment there are those "uncommitted" delegates; If the Rules committee decides to accept the January primary results then it's not clear, via the DNC charter, that it's within the party's rules to assign uncommitted delegates to Obama. Of course, as multiple members of the Rules committee told NBC News, there's such a thing as "political will," which could trump the DNC charter. Oh, the joys of what we'll be watching on Saturday. 

    *** Obama's Auschwitz gaffe: For the first time of this budding general election, the GOP blogosphere was running on all cylinders -- er, microprocessors -- when news began to circulate that Obama's claim that his uncle had helped liberate Auschwitz. The rub: The Soviets, not the Americans, liberated the concentration camp. The Obama camp eventually corrected the misstatement -- the candidate's great uncle helped liberate Buchenwald, not Auschwitz. All in all, it wasn't a big story and wasn't near the gaffe that McCain's earlier Sunni-Shiite one was. If you're going to make a gaffe, you better make sure it's more truth than lie. And in this case it was. Yet when you consider Obama's other misstatements or exaggerations (JFK helping to bring his father to the US, Sioux City instead of Sioux Falls, Sunshine, FL instead of Sunrise, FL, 57 states), his campaign has to be careful to remember that these types of stories/narratives can often take lives of their own.

    *** Veepstakes watch: Not much movement on the veepstakes front today. Charlie Crist was the first of the McCain BBQ guests to break his silence, but he ducked the question shadowing his potential candidacy when asked about social conservative angst over him. Crist ignored the question on Morning Joe and instead touted his Florida record. Meanwhile, Maureen Dowd does a fictional "vetting Bill Clinton" column that includes a script of Obama and Bill Clinton chatting about his business issues and Bill Clinton eventually relenting on the idea of putting HRC on the ticket. Speaking of veepstakes, turnout for the GOP tournament on MSNBC.com is already higher than in many of those caucus states won by Obama. The closest match-ups so far: Powell v. Crist; Barbour vs. Cox; Thompson v. Petraues; Jeb v. Pence; Romney, Thune, Huckabee, Rice and Sanford are the only candidates garnering 70%+.

    *** A super flip: In one of the more bizarre superdelegate moves, a super from the Virgin Islands has switched from Obama to Clinton -- after having originally supported Clinton and then switching to Obama. Kevin Rodriguez had been for Clinton early on, then switched to Obama on May 10 and even put out a statement through the Obama camp lauding the Illinois senator's ability to "connect with Democrats, Republicans and independents." The Clinton campaign put out just a one-line statement yesterday afternoon; it didn't tout him as a switch or provide a statement. First Read was unable to reach Rodriguez last night for comment. With 797 superdelegates, none of whom are bound to anything, this is bound to happen. It's also a reminder that even if a superdelegate puts out a statement in support of one candidate or another, it doesn't mean they have to stay put. Obama this morning did pick up two more superdelegates: Colorado party chair Patricia Waak and Guam add-on Vicente "Ben" Pangelinan. The counts: PLEDGED: Obama 1649 to 1500; SUPERDELEGATES: Obama 317.5 to 283.5; EDWARDS PLEDGED: Obama 12 to 0; TOTAL: Obama 1,978.5 to 1,783.5. Obama is now 47.5 delegates away from 2,026.

    *** On the trail: Clinton is in South Dakota visiting Mount Rushmore and campaigning in Kyle and Rapid City; McCain holds a town hall in Reno, NV and raises money there before heading to Los Angeles for another fundraiser; and Obama has a town hall at an elementary school in Thornton, CO.

    Countdown to Puerto Rico: 4 days
    Countdown to Montana, South Dakota: 6 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2008: 160 days
    Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 237 days
     
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  • The general: Exit polls aren't crystal balls

    The AP looks at the fight between Obama and McCain among key demo groups, and notes that Obama is competitive among many of the groups the CW says he'll lose. "Polls this month show the Illinois senator leading McCain among women, running even with him among Catholics and suburbanites and trailing him with people over age 65. Results vary by poll for those without college degrees. And though Obama trails decisively with a group that has shunned him against Clinton—whites who have not completed college—he's doing about the same with them as the past two Democratic presidential candidates."

    The New York Times examines the judicial-appointment philosophies of Obama and McCain.

    NEVADA (5 EVs): The Las Vegas Sun's Jon Ralston curtain-raises McCain's visit to Nevada by writing a column on the history of McCain's support for Yucca mountain. Ralston notes that despite a pledge McCain made yesterday about never opening Yucca, the evidence of the last few years indicates differently. Ralson adds, though, that Yucca is not the voting issue for as many Nevadans as some might think -- or Bush would not have won the state in 2004.

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