From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** McCain's Bush problem: Yes, Jeremiah Wright could be a huge liability for Obama if he becomes the nominee. Sure, questions about Clinton's honesty and trustworthiness could also hurt her in a general election, as well as Bill Clinton's return to the White House. But according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll, the biggest political albatross heading into November is -- drum roll, please -- George Bush. In the poll, 43% say McCain being too closely aligned to Bush and his policies is a major concern. That's compared with 36% who say that about Clinton's apparent flip-flops; 34% who say that about Obama's bitter-guns-religion remark; 32% who say that about Wright and Bill Ayers; 31% who say that about Clinton's honesty and trustworthiness; 27% who say that about Bill Clinton having too much influence on policy decisions; 17% who say that about Obama not being patriotic enough; and 16% who believe McCain might be too old. When you add that Bush problem to other macro-political trends -- just 27% approve of Bush's job (his lowest mark ever in the survey), just 15% think the country is on the right track, 81% believe the country is in a recession -- that's quite a head wind McCain and the Republicans are facing. So while the political world might beat the Wright issue to death or parse every little thing Bill says, let's not forget overall dynamics of this presidential election.

VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the turnaround in the latest NBC/WSJ poll.

*** Maverick or Bush ally? Of course, the above concern about Bush raises this question: Just how closely aligned is McCain to Bush? Well, the Arizona senator certainly has broken with Bush and the GOP on several issues: campaign finance reform (although Bush did sign that into law), judges (the Gang of 14), and torture. And those breaks certainly appear to help him among independents (see below). But some took place a while ago. What's more, on the biggest issues out there -- Iraq, health care, economic policy (especially taxes) -- there is very little room between McCain and the president. McCain has spent the past several weeks since locking up the GOP nomination by solidifying his base, unveiling policy proposals, and raising money. But does he now begin breaking more with Bush? He started last week, when he disagreed with Bush's handling of Katrina. What comes next? 

*** It's the values, stupid…: While the overall political environment is tough for the GOP, McCain is running neck-and-neck with his Democratic rivals. In the NBC/WSJ survey, Obama leads the Arizona senator by three points (46%-43%) and Clinton is ahead of him by one (45%-44%). What's going on here? Besides McCain's appeal among independents, NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) offers this explanation: values. "What is driving his image … is values," he says. "It is faith, honor, country, and patriotism." Indeed, 54% of respondents say that they identify with McCain's background and set of values, compared with 46% of who say that of Clinton and 45% who say that of Obama, (which is a drop from the 50% who said this of the Illinois senator in late March). So ironically, if McCain ends up winning in November, it won't be because of national security or Iraq; it will be because of values.

*** A house divided: Another thing that seems to be helping McCain is the ongoing contentious Democratic primary. In the poll, only 25% of Clinton voters say they would vote for Obama in the general with enthusiasm, with 30% saying they would NOT vote Obama. Similarly, just 26% of Obama voters say they would vote for Clinton enthusiastically in the general, with 22% saying they would NOT vote for Clinton. Moreover, nearly four in 10 Obama voters say they don't identify with Clinton's background and values, while almost five in 10 Clinton voters say the same about Obama. "The longer this contest is going on … the more they are beginning to dislike their opponent," explains NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R). "It is extremely difficult for Republicans… But it's being balanced by the fault lines [within] the Democratic Party." The good news for the Democrats is that Obama's or Clinton's numbers will go up if they can bring their rival's voters back in the fold. But is that an "if" or a "when"?

*** Has Obama become Clinton? What's also interesting in the poll is that Obama's support among independents isn't too far off from Clinton's. In an Obama-McCain match-up, McCain leads Obama among indies by 11 points (46%-35%), while his lead over Clinton is 14 points (46%-32%). Obama leads Clinton by three points (46%-43%) in the NBC/WSJ poll. But six to seven weeks of Wright and "bitter" have taken a toll on his standing with independents. The electability argument Obama used so well with superdelegates over the last few months is not backed up by facts anymore. The only thing Obama has going for him is his Dem opponent, who has similar image problems. The poll was conducted of 1,006 registered voters from April 25-28 -- as the Wright controversy resurfaced but BEFORE Obama's speech denouncing his former pastor -- and it has an overall 3.1% margin of error.

*** Super switcheroo: A former Clinton-appointed DNC chairman, and early endorser of Hillary Clinton, has switched to Obama. Indianapolis native Joe Andrew told the AP, "I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point that it's now bad for the Democratic Party." He said he is switching, then, because "a vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote to continue this process, and a vote to continue this process is a vote that assists (Republican) John McCain." Andrew and the Obama camp will make it official at a 10:00 am Indianapolis news conference. This brings Obama the closest he's ever been to Clinton in the superdelegate total. SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 267-Obama 248 (280 undeclared). Obama has an 11-5 superdelegate advantage since the Pennsylvania primary. And since Clinton's victories in Ohio and Texas, Obama has picked up 35 supers to Clinton's 14; PLEDGED: Obama 1,490-1,334; OVERALL: 1,738-1,601.

*** Just asking: But when is Clinton going to talk an Obama superdelegate into switching? Do they have a few in their pocket for May 7 if they somehow sweep Tuesday's contests? For now, it seems it's Obama who continues to have more lure to superdelegates and continues to find the occasional Clinton switcher. The addition of Andrew to Obama's fold is a big deal because of his title and because of the fact Bill Clinton appointed him to the job in the '90s. But it's what Andrew said that could have resonance: "I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point that it's now bad for the Democratic Party." Does Andrew become a Clinton superdelegate whip at this point?

*** Expectations setting: A new Mason-Dixon poll in North Carolina shows that the constant barrage of bad news for Obama over this last week has taken a toll. The new poll has Obama's once insurmountable lead in the Tar Heel state looking, well, surmountable. He leads by just seven points, 49%-42%. Whispers out of Indiana indicate Clinton's on the move in some private polls and might even have the lead in the Hoosier State. So if Clinton takes this momentum and closes like she has in the last few primaries, the Democrats could have some mess on their hands on May 7. The New York Times has a piece today that claims she needs a big win in Indiana, not just a narrow one. We'll see if that's a fair expectations bar, but one thing's for sure: It does seem as if the expectations game is playing in Obama's favor despite the bad climate for him right now.

*** On the trail: Clinton campaigns in Indiana, making stops in Indianapolis, Jeffersonville, and Terre Haute; McCain already appeared on MSNBC's Morning Joe from Cleveland, OH, where he holds a town hall, and then -- in a blast from the past -- heads to Des Moines, IA; and Obama, like Clinton, is in Indiana, stumping in Columbia City, Middlebury, and Lakeport. And in the spouse watch, Michelle Obama is in Indiana and Bill Clinton is in West Virginia and Indiana.

Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 5 days
Countdown to West Virginia: 12 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 19 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 187 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 264 days
 
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The Wall Street Journal on the latest NBC/WSJ poll: "The poll … shows that the prolonged battling between Sens. Obama and Clinton could make it difficult for the ultimate nominee to unite the party. Both candidates have been bloodied, though Sen. Obama, who previously has enjoyed much higher personal ratings than Sen. Clinton, has sustained more damage. The Illinois senator has struggled over the past month with a series of controversies, including his association with an outspoken Chicago pastor and comments about small-town voters that have been portrayed as elitist."

Here's the take on the poll from MSNBC.com.

The NBC/WSJ poll isn't the only new survey out there. Here is the latest New York Times/CBS poll: "Senator Barack Obama's aura of inevitability in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination has diminished after his loss in the Pennsylvania primary and amid the furor over his former pastor… Fifty-one percent of Democratic primary voters say they expect Mr. Obama to win their party's nomination, down from 69 percent a month ago. Forty-eight percent of Democrats say he is the candidate with the best chance of beating Senator John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican nominee, down from 56 percent a month ago."

More: "In a head-to-head race between Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain, both candidates are backed by 45 percent of the registered voters. In a race between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain, 48 percent back Mrs. Clinton and 43 percent support Mr. McCain."

The New York Daily News looks at the continued superdelegate shift to Obama despite Wright, calling it a "troubling trend" for Clinton.

"A group of Florida Democrats marched on party headquarters Wednesday demanding that Democratic leaders reverse a months-old decision to deny the state a say in the party's presidential nominating process. Waving miniature Florida flags, the group called on Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, to speak and to count the results of the state's Jan. 29 primary. The party has ignored the results because the primary was too early under party rules. Party spokesman Luis Miranda told the protesters that 'there will be representation from Florida in Denver,' site of the party's national convention in August. He did not elaborate. 
 
DNC Chair Howard Dean gets a rare positive profile courtesy of the LA Times' Z. Barabak

This morning, in a conference call hosted by the left-leaning Win Without War Coalition, superdelegates committed to both Clinton and Obama will call for party unity on foreign policy and ending the Iraq war. Among those delegates participating are Reps. Jan Schakowsky (Obama), Jim McGovern (Clinton), Rush Holt (Uncommitted), John Lewis (Obama), Lynn Woolsey (Clinton), Sam Farr (Uncommitted), Barbara Lee (Obama) and Maurice Hinchey (Clinton).

At the end of a grueling seven-stop day in rural North Carolina, NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann reports, a visibly energized Bill Clinton neatly and forcefully summed up his argument for his wife's nomination as the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party.

Her stake for the prize, he said, will lie in her ability to win the popular vote. "What are they gonna say if she wins the popular vote?" he argued. "'I'm sorry, we are gonna give it to the caucus states that are going Republican in November?' No." (Unless we're mistaken, however, Maine and Washington State are states the Democrats will need to win if they hope to take the presidency.)

INDIANA: The Los Angeles Times examines the Clinton-supporting 527. "With $220,000 in ad buys Wednesday alone, the California-based American Leadership Project has spent more on advertisements in Indiana than in the other, more populous states where it has been active: Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio… The effort is funded mainly by unions backing Clinton. The American Federation of Teachers donated $300,000 on Wednesday. In recent days, the effort has received a combined $600,000 from the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees and unions representing painters and sheet metal workers."

SEIU, though, is now chipping in more money for its own pro-Obama campaign. "The SEIU has spent the most on independent campaigns during the primaries -- at least $8.7 million boosting Obama's candidacy, according to Federal Election Commission records. The AFSCME has spent $4.1 million to help Clinton."

The New York Times looks at the sense of urgency Clinton is feeling regarding Indiana. "While Clinton advisers say that Mrs. Clinton needs to carry the state to start trying to catch up with Mr. Obama's lead in delegates, some political analysts said that even a virtual tie would be a setback because it would show she could not beat Mr. Obama when he was struggling."

Here's a dispatch from NBC's Kevin Corke from the Mean Green Machine… In our travels from Anderson, IN to Indianapolis, we rode in-cab with Joe Pyles, a professional truck driver. Joe -- a white male in his mid-50s -- has been driving big rigs for 30 years. He told me he could remember when gas cost 65 cents a gallon. Now with prices for diesel over $4.40 in some places it costs him $800 every time he fills up. "I don't care who you are, the cost of fuel is making it tough just to live. Forget about eatin' at a restaurant, I've gotta make sure I can put the basics in the cupboard. And you can point to one reason, the cost of fuel- period!"

Pyles said jobs, the economy, and gas prices are the main issues he wants the next president to address -- adding that he's leaning toward voting for Obama.

We also spoke with Jennifer Preston (a black female, mom of four who just took a buyout from Chrysler after 15 years on the job). She said jobs and health care are her main issues. She said she liked Hillary until South Carolina and the "Bill thing." Now she's backing Obama. "I think he can help lift up black people so they can get a chance to do better, cause we've been struggling."

Preston said she thought Obama waited too long to more forcefully distance himself from Rev. Jeremiah Wright. "I'm not mad at Obama, I'm mad at Wright because he doesn't speak for black people, Obama or for Indianans. No preacher I know ever talked like that. He knows he's hurting Obama and I think he's doing it on purpose... He (Wright) should be ashamed."

Today, we'll meet students at Indiana University (supporters of Clinton and Obama), and we'll interview them from the Mean Green Machine. We'll also talk gas prices as we take the MGM to various stations on our way to Bloomington.

Is this a good or bad headline in today's Washington Post for Clinton and the gas tax? "Clinton Gas-Tax Proposal Criticized" On the one hand, it's a critical story and seems to focus on the pander part of the proposal. On the other hand, Clinton is being tied to a gas-tax cut which is exactly what the campaign wants. Here's the story: "A growing chorus -- including a top congressional Democrat -- labeled Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's proposal for suspending the federal gasoline tax ineffective and shortsighted yesterday, even as she continued to paint Sen. Barack Obama as insensitive to drivers' woes for not endorsing the plan."

Not surprisingly, editorial pages are siding with Obama over Clinton and McCain on this issue. But what's resonating with voters? The New York Times: "McCain and Hillary Rodham Clinton have hit on a new way to pander to American voters: a temporary suspension of the federal gasoline tax between Memorial Day and Labor Day."

The Washington Post:  "We have to agree with Sen. Barack Obama, the only candidate who has refused to play this game... His opponents no doubt hope that Mr. Obama's stand will prove to be political suicide. We think it qualifies as political courage

Bill O'Reilly became a good venue for Clinton to talk about Wright because she didn't bring it up; O'Reilly did. So the campaign had plausible deniability.

The New York Post -- being the New York Post -- characterizes Clinton's comments on O'Reilly this way: "Hill gives O Wright cross."

The New York Daily News takes a similar tack, saying "Clinton rubbed salt into Barack Obama's wounds" with her comments on FOX.

The New York Post writes an item today citing a Time story that Bill Clinton told confidantes he's "appalled" at how his wife's campaign had been run and that it is tantamount to "political malpractice." 
 
(It's worth pointing out, however, that the story the Post cites is more than TWO MONTHS OLD! The Time piece is from Feb. 28.)

Per NBC's Robert Windrem, Iran's ambassador to the UN has protested to the United Nations Clinton's comments from last week threatening to "totally obliterate" the Islamic Republic if it used a nuclear attack on the U.S., Israel or any other Mideast ally. In a letter distributed by the UN Mission yesterday, Iran's acting ambassador and Charge d'Affaires, Medhi-Danesh Yazdi, protested the comments to both Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon and the Permanent Security Council. (Iran's ambassador is home in Tehran.)
 
Iran "expresses its deep concern for and strong condemnation of such a provocative, unwarranted and irresponsible statement against the Iranian nation and civilization. Such a statement is a violation of the most fundamental provisions of the United Nations Charter and the basic principles of international law and is against the global efforts to strengthen the regional and international peace and security," the letter said.
 
Iran also stated it has no intention to attack any nation, but added that it "would not hesitate to act in self defense to respond to any attack against the Iranian nation and to take appropriate defensive measures to protect itself." The acting ambassador asked the Secretary General to circulate the letter among members of the Security Council. The AP has more.

Uh, oh. It's never a good sign when a trailing candidate begins to cite Truman. Clinton did so yesterday, per NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli "But that we're up to the fight that lies ahead. So if the best example is Harry Truman, and I kind of like that. Because you remember that headline, 'Dewey Defeats Truman.' If the headline is Harry Truman, that's encouragement to me. Because I believe that we can, just like Harry Truman do what is necessary to protect and defend our country and begin once again to make the future ours."

On MSNBC's Morning Joe, McCain called it "disturbing" that a generic Republican loses by 18 points in the NBC/WSJ poll. But he blamed the negative overall environment for Republicans on spending, which he called "out of control." He went on to say it his "dispirited our base." He said "we have to energize our base." He then briefly mentioned the economy, but the bulk of his answer was on spending. Despite criticism of his proposed gas tax holiday by editorial boards and economists, McCain also said it was an opportunity to give the lowest income voters "a little break for the summer." Maybe they can "buy a meal for their kids. It's a little thing, to give some people a break…. We want to pump up Americans… give them some optimism."
 
Whew. The Senate officially believes McCain is a natural born U.S. citizen.

So McCain's health-care plan will raise taxes? Well, sort of. "The campaign cannot yet project how many taxpayers might see their taxes go up, said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mr. McCain's top domestic policy adviser. But Mr. Holtz-Eakin said in an interview that for some, Mr. McCain's health care tax credits would not be large enough to compensate for his proposal to eliminate the tax breaks afforded to workers with employer-provided health benefits."

The AP: "McCain is making promises that would cost billions of taxpayer dollars, yet he is vague about how he would pay for them. McCain is handing around a campaign grab bag of goodies. There are little treats like a summer gas-tax holiday and new mortgages for struggling homeowners, and there are big plums like tax breaks for corporations and families with children. The expected GOP presidential nominee has nothing on the Democrats. … The difference? Unlike the Democrats, McCain has made a career of trying to cut spending."

"McCain will host his richest fund-raiser to date next week in New York City -- with prices for a premium seat hitting an eye-popping $100,000," the New York Daily News reports. "That's how much donors will have to raise if they want to dine with the Arizona senator at the Fifth Ave. home of Jets owner and event Chairman Woody Johnson, who expects to collect at least $4 million from a who's who of the city's real estate and finance set."

Apparently, McCain has some trouble driving, according to his wife, Cindy. "His wife … confided to Jay Leno on Wednesday that the former Navy fighter pilot is a not exactly Dale Earnhardt Jr. on the freeways. 'He's not the best of drivers,' she said on 'The Tonight Show' on NBC. 'I drive most of the time.'"

The New York Times has a tick-tock from earlier this week of when Obama finally saw Rev. Wright's antics, and the piece delves into what remains of the relationship between the two men. "Only in this hotel room, confronted with the televised replay of the combustible pastor, did the candidate realize the full import of the remarks, his aides say. At the same time, aides fielded phone calls and e-mail from uncommitted superdelegates, several demanding that the candidate speak out more forcefully."

"As Mr. Obama told close friends after watching the replay, he felt dumbfounded, even betrayed, particularly by Mr. Wright's implication that Mr. Obama was being hypocritical. He could not tolerate that." More: "Theirs was a long and painful falling out, marked by a degree of mutual incomprehension, friends and aides say. It began at the moment Mr. Obama declared his candidacy, when he abruptly uninvited his pastor from delivering an invocation, injuring the older man's pride and fueling his anger."

The Boston Globe editorial board weighs in on the Wright controversy. "[N]o one who chafes at the idea of guilt by association should feel comfortable holding Obama responsible for every divisive word Wright has uttered. The Illinois senator has made a career of pushing in the opposite direction -- of promoting common understanding among those who might distrust each other. To see those efforts bogging down in the same old swamp is just depressing."

The Wall Street Journal looks at how Obama's call for parental responsibility is playing with voters.