From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
With the Indiana and North Carolina primaries less than 96 hours away, making its way around the pro-Obama blogosphere is a clip in this video of former prominent Clinton administration official Mickey Kantor appearing to call Indianans an expletive. It is an excerpt from the movie "The War Room" about the 1992 Clinton campaign. Kantor, James Carville and George Stephanopoulos are reading over results from various states, including Indiana, when Kantor says: 

"Look at Indiana, wait, wait, look at Indiana: 42-40. It doesn't matter if we win. Those people are [expletive]. Excuse me."

Kantor is a supporter of Hillary Clinton's, listed on the Clinton campaign Web site as one of several former Clinton administration officials backing her candidacy. He is also reported to be an informal adviser to her 2008 campaign.

*** UPDATE *** Huffington Post quotes Kantor on what he meant by the expletive: "Indiana was not even on our radar screen," he said, "And I was talking about the polling and not the people... If you look at The War Room, this is not the way Carville or George interpreted my statement. This is frankly libelous."

[EDITOR'S NOTE: We've adjusted the language in the first paragraph, because it's not clear Kantor is referring to Indianans.]

*** UPDATE 2*** The director of The War Room tells Ben Smith the film is doctored. One portion of another produced clip -- not included in this post -- making its rounds, is certainly doctored. We are in the process of checking the original film to see about the first expletive.

*** UPDATE 3 *** We've checked the original film, which we link to above. Quietly, you can hear an "-ing" on the end of the expletive. Then Kantor adds "...in the White House." He was NOT referring to the people of Indiana.

From NBC's Mark Murray
At a media avail in Indiana today, Obama -- playing the outsider card -- criticized the Clinton's and McCain's plan for a gas-tax holiday. "Now, the two Washington candidates in the race have been attacking me because I don't support their idea," he said today, per advanced remarks. "In fact, yesterday Senator Clinton demanded that everyone go on the record on this issue. She even borrowed one of President Bush's favorite phrases, and said that every member of Congress had to tell her -- 'are they with us or against us?'"

"Well, folks have been weighing in. And you know what? It turns out that people want to be on the side of the American people -- they don't want to be for something that is such an obvious election year gimmick; they don't want to line up behind an idea that's more about trying to get a few votes than getting you meaningful relief."

More: "Senator Clinton does have some support for her plan in Congress. After all, the person who first proposed it was John McCain. So I guess when she says 'are you with us or against us' -- Senator Clinton is referring to her and John McCain. That's one vote she's got, because on this issue, Hillary Clinton and John McCain are reading from the same political playbook."

Also, here's a new TV on this subject the Obama campaign is airing in Indiana:

*** UPDATE *** Clinton spokesman Phil Singer emails this respose: "The choice is simple: Senator Obama wants the American people to pay the gas tax this summer but Senator Clinton thinks Big Oil should. The Clinton gas tax holiday is financed exclusively through a tax on windfall profits from oil companies and keeps the Highway Transportation Trust fund intact."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Obama's back against the wall: After Pennsylvania, a lot of folks -- including us -- figured that Obama would win North Carolina by as much, or even more, than Clinton won the Keystone State, thus erasing the gains she made there in delegates and the popular vote. But the race in Carolina is tightening from the double-digit lead he once held; a new Research 2000 poll has him up by seven points, 51%-44%. After several days of Jeremiah Wright dominating the news -- plus some new polls showing an erosion of support -- Obama's back is against the wall, at least in terms of perception and momentum. Of course, almost every time a candidate's back has been against the wall this campaign (think Clinton and McCain in NH, Obama and McCain in SC, and Clinton in OH and PA), that candidate has flourished. Will Obama continue the trend? His appearance on Meet the Press this Sunday might offer some clues.

VIDEO: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray gives his first read on the tightening North Carolina race and previews Tuesday's primary there and in Indiana.

*** The front-runner spotlight: Should Tuesday's results end up giving Clinton more momentum and extend this race even longer, it could be the worse thing to happen to Clinton. Why? It could invite the dreaded front-runner spotlight. Think about it: None of the remaining candidates has done well when the media spotlight was on them the brightest. The most intense coverage McCain received was in the first six months of 2007, the worst six months of his campaign and the period of time he was the closest thing the GOP had to an inevitable nominee. Clinton's toughest coverage came from about October 2007 to March 1, 2008, the worst six months of her campaign and the time she was considered the inevitable nominee. Now, it's Obama's turn in this version of "kill the man." Remember that game? Where the goal was for everyone to tackle the person with the football? Welcome to political kill the man, in which the media and opponents have successfully tackled McCain last year, Clinton earlier this year, and Obama now. Of course, someone has to survive this war of attrition. We're not going to find new candidates to tackle, are we?

*** 96 hours to go: Indiana and North Carolina are the two biggest states left on the calendar (sorry Puerto Rico, we know you may have a higher turnout than Indiana and more voters, you won't have more delegates). And because of the fairly large and swing nature of Indiana and North Carolina, it's fair to say that if either candidate sweeps the contests, it's going to be a major turning point in the campaign. An Obama sweep, and Clinton might not last the week. A Clinton sweep, meanwhile, and a contested convention is guaranteed.  A split decision, and the trickle to Obama by uncommitted superdelegates probably continues and Obama keeps up his successful limp toward the finish line.

*** The over and under: So with this in mind, let's have some Vegas-like fun. If Vegas were charged with setting the line, our best guess is that Clinton would be giving three points in Indiana, while Obama would giving five points in North Carolina. This doesn't mean this is the prediction for either state we're making, this is simply the margin of victory projection that we think would invite an even amount of money being bet on each candidate. If you actually could find someone to take a bet on the margin of victory for both candidates, you'd need to ask yourself this question when looking at the polling: Where will undecideds go? Does Obama nab any of these undecideds? There are some analysts who believe Obama won't win many of them in either North Carolina or Indiana. And if that's the case, watch out -- both states could be VERY surprising. Undecideds haven't broken for Obama since February. Is this a race deal? So while folks aren't lying to pollsters about support for Obama, those who want to vote against Obama on race are saying they are undecided.

*** Bill works it hard in Carolina: The Clinton campaign clearly seems to smell something in North Carolina. Bill Clinton is barnstorming the state like nobody's business on Monday. He's got nine -- count 'em NINE -- stops on Monday.  Phew. One of us has argued that Hillary wouldn't have gotten this far without Bill, and can't get across the finish line because of him. BUT, if she pulls the upset in North Carolina, it will be Bill's victory. It's just stunning how well he's working these small southern towns. In fact, whoever the nominee is, Bill may be showing the playbook for how to use the former president: send him to these Ruby Red Southern states and let him do his thing. He may be gaffe-a-week prone on the national stage, but sending him to the rural white parts of the South might be a smart move if he'll agree to do it -- if Obama's the nominee. Perhaps the only way he'll agree to campaign this hard in the fall in these areas is if his wife's on the ticket. And it's this last point that we think many of us have overlooked: Has Clinton stayed in this race for so long against all delegate math odds because she wants to force Obama's hand on the No. 2 slot?

*** The day in delegates: Today, Obama camp unveiled another former DNC Chair, Paul G. Kirk. Yesterday, Clinton added four superdelegates to her total; Obama added two, including a switch from Clinton. Clinton got four New York add-ons (Obama will get three after the Illinois convention this weekend) and CT DNC member John Olsen (president of the state AFL-CIO). But Clinton lost a key IN supporter Joe Andrew, a former DNC chair appointed by Bill Clinton. Obama also got TX DNC member John Patrick, the state AFL-CIO vice president. The count: SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 272-250; PLEDGED: Obama 1,490-1,334; OVERALL: 1,740-1,606.

*** Louisiana special watch: In Louisiana tomorrow, there's a special election between Don Cazayoux (D) and Woody Jenkins (R) to replace Rep. Richard Baker (R), who resigned his seat to take a lobbying job. And as it stands right now, after the Democrats captured Denny Hastert's seat earlier in the year, Democrats are well positioned to win a second GOP-held district. The reason, says David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, is that Cazayoux appears to be the better candidate. "Democrats have a better candidate… I think the candidate is important in a special election," in which turnout is usually low. The Republican groups -- the NRCC and Freedom's Watch -- have tried to nationalize this race by linking the conservative Cazayoux to Obama and Pelosi on taxes and health care. But Democrats believe that by nationalizing the race, especially bringing Obama's name into the mix, will help boost the turnout of African Americans, who make up about 35% of the district.

*** Don't you forget about me: By the way, Guam votes tomorrow (or is Sunday or did it take place yesterday; that whole International Dateline confuses us). Four pledged delegates at stake.

*** On the trail: Clinton campaigns in North Carolina, stumping in Hendersonville and Greensboro and speaking at the North Carolina Democratic Party Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Raleigh; McCain campaigns in Colorado, where he holds a health care town hall and speaks to reporters before heading to Arizona; and Obama has a morning event in Hammond, IN, then goes to the Tar Heel State, holding a rally in Charlotte and also speaking at the J-J Dinner in Raleigh. Also, Bill Clinton campaigns in Indiana and Michelle Obama is in North Carolina.
 
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 4 days
Countdown to West Virginia: 11 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 18 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 186 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 263 days
 
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INDIANA: The Wall Street Journal looks at just how influential GOP voters could be on Tuesday in this state's contest. "Several factors suggest that Republican voters may be attracted to the Democratic primary this year, including an open-primary scheme that allows voters of all political stripes to cast ballots, a settled nominating race on the Republican side and a downticket slate that includes few cliffhanger races to interest the Republican faithful. As one Republican Party official put it, 'when the circus is in town, people want to go to the circus.'"

More: "Friday, Sen. Obama's campaign will introduce three prominent Republicans who are supporting the campaign: John Clark, a top aide to Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels, who is running unopposed in the primary; William Ruckelshaus, a former Nixon administration lawyer whose family has deep ties to the state; and Jim Benham, president of the state's National Farmers Union."

And: "In a state that hasn't elected a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, the lure for these Democrats is strong. Sen. Clinton, who appeared this week on the show of conservative television talk-show host Bill O'Reilly, has a fair-weather champion in the form of radio conservative Rush Limbaugh, who has been urging Republicans for weeks to join an 'Operation Chaos' and vote for the New York senator in states that have open primaries."

The Indy Star looks at how local black ministers are pushing to get the vote out for Obama.

The Boston Globe notes Evan Bayh's efforts to win Indiana for Clinton. If he does it and Clinton ends up the nominee somehow, then she's got a lot of current and former govs she'll have to put on her supposed short list: Bayh, Rendell, Strickland, and Easley. "In Clinton's most important recent primary victories, she has had a Democratic state boss rallying party regulars to her side: Governor Ted Strickland in Ohio, Governor Ed Rendell in Pennsylvania. It is now Bayh's turn to play kingmaker. And though it is unclear whether he can deliver as successfully, in public and behind the scenes, he has been using his name, his political muscle, and his instantly recognizable face to draw Hoosiers to Clinton's cause."   

While the national media may assume Bayh has a death grip control of the Indiana Dem Party, apparently some of these high profile endorsements for Obama are about "sticking it to" Bayh, writes Indy Star columnist Matthew Tully. "Many state Democrats have privately complained about feeling pressure from the Bayh camp to support Clinton, or at least to not endorse Obama. Others believe Bayh has lost touch with up-and-coming Indiana Democratic politicians during his time in Washington."

The Indy Star, meanwhile, endorsed Clinton.

NORTH CAROLINA: As we mentioned earlier, a new Research 2000 poll has Obama up by seven points in the state, 51%-44%. "The poll also shows that younger voters (ages 18-29) heavily favor Obama 67 percent to Clinton's 29 percent. On the other hand, those over 60 chose Clinton by a margin of 59 percent to 35 percent. Overall, Clinton leads for those over 45 years old while Obama leads all younger sets. Women also chose Clinton by a slight margin over Obama, 49 to 47 percent, while men chose Obama 56 percent to 38 percent for Clinton."

And let's not forget Guam… The Wall Street Journal: "Sen. Clinton and her husband are reminding voters about their multiple visits to Guam during stopovers on presidential trips to Asia in the 1990s. 'She's been here, and she knows us,' says Rena Borja, who is spearheading Sen. Clinton's Guam campaign operation of about 20 volunteers. Sen. Obama is pointing to his upbringing in Hawaii and Indonesia. 'I learned firsthand about the unique issues facing Pacific island communities,' he said in a letter to Guam residents that was published in local newspapers."

"The Obama campaign has opened an office in Guam, a first for a presidential campaign, and has three paid staffers with personal ties to the island. The Illinois senator won the Hawaii caucus in February 76% to 24%."

USA Today looks at the superdelegate success Obama has had this week, despite his political troubles. The question on everyone's mind: Can he keep it up if he loses both Indiana and North Carolina on Tuesday?

The New York Times suggests that Clinton's chances -- despite the momentum she's showing in polls and the confidence the campaign is exuding -- are very remote. "By and large, the group that matters most at this point -- the uncommitted superdelegates, who are likely to hold the balance of power -- still seem to view their decision the way the Obama campaign would like them to see it. They suggest that they are more sympathetic to the argument that they should follow the will of the voters as expressed by the delegates amassed by the candidates when the primary season is done rather than following Mrs. Clinton's admonitions to select the candidate they think would best be able to defeat Senator John McCain and the Republicans in November."

"'It's about the numbers, and the numbers are the numbers,' said Chris Redfern, the chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party and an uncommitted superdelegate. 'It's not about hand-wringing. And Senator Obama has the lead.'"

That said, "Clinton has an unmistakable bounce in her step these days -- a sense of energy and optimism that somehow belies the daunting challenge she faces in wresting the Democratic presidential nomination from Barack Obama," the AP's Fouhy writes. More: "All of which has given her advisers at least a glimmer of hope that, after a long period of being thought a sure loser, Clinton has regained enough momentum to persuade uncommitted superdelegates to give her candidacy another look. While it may still be a long shot, advisers believe she is in a stronger position to make that argument now than she has been for much of the primary season."  

The Indy Star looks at the polarization that's developed inside the Democratic Party between Clinton's and Obama's supporters.

Will it be harder for Obama as the Dem nominee to win over blue-collar, culturally conservative Dems? Or for Clinton to motivate blacks? McClatchy finds quite a few black Democrats who plan to stay home if Obama is denied the nomination. "'It would hurt me not to vote,' said Charles Clark, an Indianapolis retiree. He's thinking about leaving the presidential box on his ballot blank this fall if Hillary Clinton is the Democrats' nominee. 'There was a heck of a push made so blacks could vote. I know that,' he said. 'But it would also be very unfair if they pushed Barack Obama to the side.'"

"Michelle Moore, an Indianapolis housewife, is less gentle: 'Hillary Clinton would not even still be in the race if Obama was a white man,' she said."

In his latest National Journal column, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook writes, "Just days ago, it seemed that the only way that Barack Obama could fail to clinch his party's nod would be to leave his wife and move in with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. That is, until Wright took to the lectern at the National Press Club to launch what amounted to a kamikaze attack on Obama's candidacy, sputtering nonsense that must have left the senator's campaign operatives wondering whether they had accidentally tuned their TVs to the political horror channel."
 
More: "But to downscale, high-school-educated, white Democrats who make less than $50,000 a year and are more likely to spend money at Wal-Mart than Starbucks, much about Obama seems a bit odd. And Wright's diatribe seems to be reinforcing stereotypes with these voters, presenting Obama with his gravest crisis yet as a candidate."
 
And, his conclusion: "The math is still the math, but a race that seemed to be over may not be over. What happens in Indiana and North Carolina on Tuesday could tell us a lot about how quintessentially middle-class states now view Obama."

The New York Times notes the odd alliance on this issue between McCain and Clinton, who are both hammering Obama for his opposition on the gas tax holiday.

Since a gas tax holiday doesn't look feasible, congressional Dems are pushing an alternative that could give some money back to consumers. "The proposals are expected to include temporarily halting the build-up of the nation's emergency oil stockpile, giving regulators greater authority to investigate and penalize oil companies that engage in price gouging, and seeking to discourage speculative trading in oil and gas markets, possibly by raising the collateral traders must provide."

"Democrats are likely to propose a temporary 'windfall-profits tax,' possibly of 25%, on major oil companies. Companies would be exempt from the tax if they invested profits in domestically produced renewable fuels or expanded refinery capacity or renewable electricity production. Democrats were discussing Thursday how the additional tax revenues might be used, with some advocating rebates for consumers and others backing additional investment in research and incentives for renewable energy."

Obama could use this proposal, like, yesterday.

The Wall Street Journal looks at Obama's attempt to sell the idea that this gas tax holiday is bad policy. "Obama has been positioning himself as a candidate who can win by telling voters hard truths rather than offering easy political solutions. 'I'm here to tell you the truth,' Sen. Obama says in a new 60-second ad running in North Carolina and Indiana ahead of Tuesday's primaries. 'You're going to save about  $25, $30, or half a tank of gas.' A range of economists, including Gregory Mankiw, who was chairman of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, and Leonard Burman, who directs the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, have criticized the proposal because it would save drivers little while encouraging gasoline consumption and depleting the federal Highway Trust Fund. Sen. Obama opposes the holiday for the same reasons."

"But the political popularity of gas-price relief illustrates the uphill climb facing Sen. Obama. After making his plea Thursday at a retirement community in Columbia City, Ind., an older voter asked him why he couldn't support a gas-tax holiday that would be funded by a tax on oil companies, as Sen. Clinton has proposed, because it would offer some short-term relief. 'A lot of us are short term,' she quipped."

A GOP operative on the Hill passes along these bullet points from the latest Pew survey that this person thinks is something that ought to make Dems nervous.
-- For the first time this year, the most closely followed news story was not the campaign—it was gas prices. When asked what interests them about the issue, most (53 percent) wanted to know why prices are rising/fluctuating.
-- A majority of respondents (51 percent) now says that there is "too much" media coverage of the presidential campaign. That's up sharply from 36 percent in late January. The campaign accounted for the plurality (44 percent) of news coverage.
-- Nearly half of respondents (44 percent) said there was "too little" coverage of Iraq over the past week.
-- The top stories that respondents said they followed the most were: gas prices (27 percent), 2008 campaign (25 percent), polygamy raid (12 percent), Iraq (nine percent), food shortages (six percent)
-- The most coverage was given to the 2008 campaign (44 percent); all the other "most closely" followed stories received less than five percent each of the coverage.

This Bill Clinton strategy of going to every small little town they can set up in has been quietly paying dividends for the Clinton campaign. "While Bill Clinton's gaffes have been frequently spotlighted in the national media, he appears to be building good will among rural voters, who are vital to keeping his wife's campaign alive. And although Clinton's rock star appeal may have faded since his own candidate days, the 11 small communities he visited in North Carolina this week were thrilled to have a political celebrity in their midst."

More: "Sporting a well-tailored suit and arriving in a chauffeured black car, Bill Clinton is quietly working to win over small-town crowds with a populist message: Don't diss Wal-Mart shoppers. At one of a dizzying series of appearances this week on his wife's behalf in rural North Carolina, the former president scoffed at an unnamed 'snooty' columnist who had poked fun at his wooing of ordinary working folk. 'They think we're dumber than we are,' Clinton said from the front porch of a local museum, drawing hoots from the crowd. 'I grew up in a place like this. I know people here are as smart as anywhere else. They haven't figured that out yet,' Clinton said of the political and media establishment."

The New York Daily News: "Hillary Clinton's blue-collar campaign tour hit a bump in the road the other day when a gas station coffee machine got in her way. Videos of her struggle to fill a cup with French vanilla cappuccino had more than 430,000 hits on YouTube as of Thursday evening."

McCain said he couldn't blame Bush for the "Mission Accomplished" banner. He said though "he would be reluctant to ever declare 'mission accomplished' in Iraq, but suggested rosy early predictions of success there by President George W. Bush and other officials fueled public frustration with the war. 'I thought it was wrong at the time,' McCain told reporters in Cleveland, where he continued a week-long tour to discuss his health care plans. 'I thought phrases like 'a few dead-enders,' 'last throes,' all of those comments contributed over time to the frustration and sorrow of Americans,' he said. 'Those were, unlike the banner, direct statements that were contradicted by facts on the ground.'"  
 
But is that really the case? A YouTube dredged up by liberal group Progressive Media USA shows McCain on FOX from June 11, 2003 -- five weeks after Bush's "Mission Accomplished" speech. [A correction: The DNC informs us that the creation of this video comes from their research shop.] 
ANCHOR TO MCCAIN: …Many argue the conflict isn't over.
MCCAIN: Well, then why was there a banner that said 'Mission Accomplished' on the aircraft carrier? … The major conflict is over. The regime change has been accomplished. 
 

There's also this: "McCain on Thursday backed off his assertion that pork-barrel spending led to last year's deadly bridge collapse in Minneapolis. With Democrats criticizing him for citing wasteful spending as the cause of the disaster, McCain told reporters in Cleveland, 'No, I said it would have received a higher priority, which it deserved.'"

The Washington Times looks at McCain's attempts to start reaching out to moderates. "Faced with a crumbling Republican Party image, Sen. John McCain is gambling on a general-election strategy that relies on winning over conservative Democrats and independents, breaking with President Bush's 2000 and 2004 game plan of focusing on the party's core voters." More: "He is on a weeklong tour to discuss his concern over health care costs, and recently completed a weeklong tour of impoverished areas where Republicans don't often campaign. That included a high-profile visit to Inez, Ky., where former President Lyndon B. Johnson announced his war on poverty and the place former Democratic presidential hopeful and former Sen. John Edwards visited during his own populist campaign."

"Some of Mr. McCain's tactics make it seem as if he is chasing Mr. Edwards' Democratic supporters by adopting a populist criticism of 'greedy' corporate CEOs and by traveling to New Orleans to deliver a rebuke to Mr. Bush -- the city Mr. Edwards used to launch, and later end, his own presidential bid. Noting there are more Democrats and independents up for grabs than in recent elections, Frank J. Donatelli, the Republican National Committee's deputy chairman, says Mr. McCain needs a center-right coalition to win, just as the Democrat will need a center-left coalition."

National Journal's Victor writes that many social conservatives are no longer so angry at McCain for his work on the Gang of 14, which forged a compromise on Bush's judicial nominations. "Back then, conservative and evangelical leaders singled out McCain for scorn. His leadership in the bipartisan Senate group reinforced their impression of him as an unreliable politician who could not be counted upon to steadfastly support what they saw as paramount conservative principles… Today, almost exactly three years after that extraordinary parliamentary brinkmanship, the conservatives' raw anger has cooled. And McCain, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, has begun to work at mollifying his once fierce detractors. Some of the critics insist that the senator must provide plenty more reassurances about his judicial philosophy to win their total favor. But they also say that the fallout from the Gang of 14's work actually was not so dire."

Speaking of, according to USA Today: "On Tuesday, as Democrats Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama battle in North Carolina's primary, McCain will discuss judicial nominations in the Tar Heel state. He also has agreed to speak in mid-May at the National Rifle Association convention in Louisville."

Obama gave his Top 10 most "surprising facts" about himself on the Late Show with David Letterman, including, "his first act if elected president: 'Stop the fighting between Lauren and Heidi on 'The Hills;''" "that in the Illinois primary he 'accidentally voted for Kucinich;' and, "When I tell my kids to clean their room, I finish with, 'I'm Barack Obama and I approved this message.'"

If it's Friday, it's another attack Obama column from Paul Krugman. You can set your watch to it. Earlier this week, Krugman actually praised Obama on his gas tax stance, but he did so on his blog -- and apparently decided only to mention it in passing in his column.

The New York Times previews Saturday's special election in Louisiana. "A Democrat stands a serious chance of taking a seat in the House of Representatives from Republicans in a special election here on Saturday. But to achieve that chance of victory in this Republican fortress, the candidate has labored to dissociate himself from the Democratic Party's national leaders."

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
JEFFERSONVILLE, Ind. -- Michelle Obama spoke to the heart of the conservative attack against her husband Wednesday morning, telling a room full of Obama supporters that it was incumbent on them to get the true picture of who her husband was out to undecided voters before Tuesday's primary.

"There are a lot of people who don't know anything about us," she said. "Anything other than the caricatures that have been painted of us in the media. And that is the nature of the process."

She claimed that if she or her husband had just had 15 or 30 minutes to individually meet with each voter, the nominating process would have ended long ago but building that degree of familiarity with the electorate was impossible.

"And the game counts on that," she said. "It counts on the fact that there's no way that all these people are really going to know who Barack Obama is, so let me paint a different picture really quickly, which hopefully will stick and will distract people from what they're really asking for anyway."

Her comments reflected on the controversies that have embroiled her husband both recently -- Rev. Wright and William Ayres -- but also to false rumors circulating about him, including photos that try to prove he doesn't put his hand over his heart during the pledge of allegiance and e-mails claiming he's a Muslim. 

Conservatives have latched onto these false rumors as well as the Wright controversy to argue that Obama is not patriotic, tarnishing his image as a post-partisan figure untainted by the ideological struggles between liberals and conservatives in the baby boom generation.

Or, as Sen. John McCain had said in an interview with Chris Matthews on Hardball, he couldn't comment on whether Obama was an elitist or not, because he just didn't know Obama that well.

Mrs. Obama embraced the argument that her husband was unknown, arguing that it established him as an "underdog."

"But anybody who's talking about change is an underdog because there's a whole system and a history that says, 'Uh-uh, we're not ready for that; We don't need that, that change is scary; you should wonder who his pastor is,'" she joked. "You know there's always something."

Using the recent attacks on Obama as an x-factor in American politics as a rallying cry for the campaign's supporters, she called the supporters in attendance the campaign's "validators." She urged them to "get on the phone," "have some arguments," heart to hearts," in order to allay the doubts voters may have about Obama.

"You know 20 other people in your lives who are afraid, who don't really understand Barack," Mrs. Obama said. "They are confused on an issue; they believe something that's not true. They think he's a Muslim; they think he's a 'this'; they think he's all the names that have come up and have stuck or not stuck. You know you've talked to these people. I would love to talk to them, but I can't."

"So this is the difficult thing. This is why it's always an uphill battle," she continued. "Folks in this country believe that, who they think they know, is safer than who they're not quite sure that they know."

She also joked about how she and her husband were labeled as elitist, while she worried about spending too much at Target, and after they had just paid off their student loans only a few years ago. She claimed that because they were so recently in debt, they were closer to the lives of the Americans they wished to represent and had a set of values that they use to practice in their politics -- unlike their political opponents. 

"Our values transcend it all," she said. "And its not that other candidates have values; it's just how they are translated in their politics. Sometimes folks who have been in this for a while, they just don't know how to be anything than what the process has been. That's why sometimes you need new blood just to shake it up a bit."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The second poll today is out showing Obama up just seven points in North Carolina, down from his double-digit leads leading up to the primary. (Mason-Dixon was the other).

A Research 2000 poll shows Obama with a 51%-44% lead. (The Mason-Dixon poll did not show him breaking 50%.) Just 3% said they were undecided. Looking inside the poll, Obama's lead is buffeted by his support among men, 56%-38% and is virtually tied among women, trailing 49%-47%.

Obama gets 30% of the white vote (66%-30%), higher than he got in South Carolina and other southern states, per exit polls. And he pulls similar figures among blacks as he has in other states, 88%-5%. The poll also indicates Obama needs to have a large turnout among younger voters. He gets trounced with the over-60 crowd, 59%-35%. He is virtually tied with the 45-49 group, 50%-46% for Clinton. He leads by wide margins with the under-50 groups: 30-44 (55%-40%); 18-29 (67%-29%).

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
LOUISVILLE, Kent. -- Perhaps signaling her intention to fight on beyond next Tuesday's contests in Indiana and North Carolina, Hillary Clinton paid a visit to her Kentucky campaign headquarters this afternoon.

"We're working hard in Indiana and North Carolina," she told staff and volunteers in the small storefront office. "Then we got to West Virginia and the we'll be right here. We've got lots of great support for us around the state."

She said that she was sorry that she would miss the Kentucky Derby, but noted that Chelsea would be on hand.
 
"I want everybody to place a little money on the filly," she said.

Clinton also paid a visit to the editorial board of the Louisville Courier-Journal, the largest newspaper in Kentucky. It also has readership in the southeastern Indiana.

Kentucky votes on May 20.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier today, we mentioned some numbers from the latest NBC/WSJ poll pointing to a difficult political environment for the GOP heading into November. We should also have mentioned this figure: Democrats hold a 15-point advantage (49%-34%) over Republicans in a generic congressional ballot test.

That is virtually unchanged from March's poll, when respondents picked a generic Democratic candidate over a generic Republican, 49%-34%.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Citing some recent polls, the Clinton campaign is making this argument to Democratic superdelegates: that Clinton -- not Obama -- is the most electable Democrat in November.

The polls include a Quinnipiac survey that finds Clinton performing much better than Obama in general election match-ups in the battleground states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania --as well as the latest New York Times/CBS survey, which has Clinton leading McCain nationally by five points (48%-43%) but Obama tied with the Arizona senator (45%-45%). However, the Clinton campaign didn't mention the NBC/WSJ poll showing that Obama leads McCain by three points (46%-43%), while Clinton leads him by one (45%-44%).

"Over the course of the past two weeks since our Pennsylvania victory, there has been real movement in the polls in terms of the candidate who is the strongest against McCain," Clinton chief strategist Geoff Garin said in a conference call with reporters.

Added Clinton delegate hunter Harold Ickes in a memo to Democratic superdelegates: "A spate of new public polls out this week confirms what we have been arguing for some time: Hillary Clinton is the strongest candidate to beat John McCain in November."

Of course, one of the downsides to stressing electability through public polls -- especially for a contest that's six months away -- is that there's usually data that can make the opposite case, such those NBC/WSJ numbers above or Clinton's net-negative favorability rating in many surveys.

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
BROWNSBURG, Ind. -- Hillary Clinton this morning planted herself in the middle of the three presidential hopefuls when it comes to gas tax plans, joking, "I sometimes feel like the Goldilocks of this campaign."
 
"You know, not too much, not too little, just right," she said, after saying Barack Obama viewed a holiday as a "gimmick," while McCain does not fund his plan.
 
Clinton was answering a question about how to address the high price of oil, and if there was a longer-term solution to the problem than her gas tax plan.
 
"Nobody is arguing it's an answer," she said. "But, you know what it says -- and boy, we haven't heard this in a long time. It says, guess what? We're paying attention to how much you are suffering with these increased costs."
 
Clinton actually began the event by pointing out that it was the National Day of Prayer.
 
"I was privileged before I came in to meet with a group of ministers who prayed with me. And I am very grateful for that," she said. "I am obviously sustained and strengthened every day by my faith. But it is important that we all recognize that praying for our country, praying for those in positions of authority, is something that people of faith are really called upon to do."
 
Calling attention to her faith and mentioning the ministers, whether intentionally or not, provided a subtle reference to the Jeremiah Wright flare up. Clinton has made few comments about it of late, most notably in last night's interview when pressed by Bill O'Reilly.
 
This morning's event, which also featured the candidate's mother and daughter, was focused on Clinton's plan to help families deal with issues related to child care and senior care. She has proposed a $3,000 care-giving tax credit and long-term care insurance tax credit, among other plans.
 
"I think it is harder raising children today than it was even when I was raising my daughter," she said. "The American family has to adjust and adapt while maintaining our values, and passing those on to the next generation."

Clinton actually went to the bullpen and called on her daughter at one point to help explain her health-care policy, saying her voice was "getting a little bit raspy."

Chelsea did so, saying that she was proud her mother "stood up for universal health care coverage before it was popular," but also "learned from her experiences."
 
"If you do like your health insurance you can keep it," she said. "That's one of the things she learned in '93 and '94. I know parents are happy when we learn our lessons, but kids are happy when our parents learn lessons, too."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton picked up four more New York superdelegates--all add-ons named at the state's convention, taking place today.

Clinton, a senator from New York, has gotten the vast majority of New York's superdelegate total, buffeting her superdelegate lead, as, of course, New York is one of the most Democratic states in the country. (States get more delegates based, in part, on past presidential voting preference as well as size.) Clinton has picked up 45 New York superdelegates to Obama's one. Three NY superdelegates are undeclared, by our count.

Obama, as we've noted, is likely to pick up the three Illinois superdelegate add-ons by Monday, after they are officially named at this weekend's Illinois state convention.

There are almost 60 add-ons from various states, who have yet to be named and will likely declare their endorsements after they are appointed at state conventions. Those included, there are 276 undeclared superdelegates overall.

The New York superdelegate add-ons are: New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (former Gov. Mario Cuomo's son), former Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields, New York Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli and New York Assemblywoman Carmen Arroyo.

SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 272-249
PLEDGED: Obama 1,490-1,334
OVERALL: 1,739-1,606

With these four from NY (but not including those from IL), since PA, the count is Obama 12, Clinton 10.

From WNBC's Jay DeDapper
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg weighed in on the summer gas tax holiday, arguing "the last thing we need to do is encourage people to drive." He praised Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver (first time since congestion pricing died a predictable death in Albany) and Barack Obama for opposing "one of the dumbest ideas" he says he's ever heard.

*** UPDATE *** Per the mayor's office, here's the transcript of the exchange on the gas tax holiday:

REPORTER: Mr. Mayor, earlier this year, Speaker Quinn had proposed a sales tax free week and also a $300 renters rebate.  I was wondering if either of those things are in the budget?

MAYOR: Neither is in the budget.  I think as- its going to be hard enough to make sure we don't hurt anybody with cutbacks that denigrate- that degrade the quality of living in this City.  At the same time, don't make the taxpayer's situation any worse.  I thought it was fascinating- Shelly Silver, I thought very responsibly, came out against this idea of a summer break on gasoline taxes which would help Chavez and Kudafi and people like- other people like that.  I don't know why anybody would want to do it.  It's fascinating because his presidential- favorite presidential candidate's on the other side of it.  So you know, they just split in terms of what they think.  I thought Shelly Silver was- was right and Obama was right. McCain and Clinton were wrong. The last thing we need to do is to encourage people to drive more and to take away the monies we need for infrastructure in this country.  And that's what reducing taxes does.

REPORTER: Could you elaborate on your opposition to giving drivers a break from the gas tax and how-

MAYOR: It's about the dumbest thing I've heard in an awful long time from an economic point of view. I don't understand why you think there's any merit to it whatsoever. We're trying to discourage people from driving and we're trying to end our energy dependence. You don't do that- and incidentally, and we're trying to have more money to build infrastructure. All three of those things go- fly in the face of giving everybody 30 bucks a year. The 30 bucks is not going to change anybody's lifestyle. The billions of dollars that we would otherwise have in tax revenues can make a big difference as to what kind of a world we leave our children.

REPORTER: And what would you say to Joe Bruno, who's advocating for it?

Mayor: I have no idea. I haven't talked to Joe Bruno about it. You'd have to say something to Joe Bruno. I- that's- I just do not think that it is intelligent tax policy and it's not a good energy policy. It is something that, you know, sounds good but I thought in this case Obama had it right.

From NBC's Mark Murray
The gas-tax debate continues -- this time with a new Republican National Committee Web ad blasting Obama for not supporting a gas-tax holiday, while also noting that he supported a state one while in the Illinois legislature.

But it's worth pointing out that Obama -- while voting for that gas-tax holiday in Illinois -- later voted AGAINST a state measure extending it. As PolitiFact put it, "[I]t's not fair to call it a flip-flop when the very reason Obama opposes a suspension of the gas tax now is because he concluded that it didn't work when he supported one in the past." 
 
[YouTube:CfL0FHdNj7U]

From NBC's Andrea Mitchell, Lauren Appelbaum, and NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
After being roundly criticized by newspaper editorials, economists, and energy experts for her gas tax holiday proposal, Clinton is still plowing ahead.

She just told a town meeting in Indiana, "I think we should have a gas tax holiday and pay for it" by taxing oil company "windfall" profits. McCain also supports a gas tax holiday (although wants to pay for it through general revenues), while Obama doesn't.

Clinton added, "You know, Sen. Obama says we shouldn't do it and it's gimmick. And Sen. McCain says we should do it but shouldn't pay for it. I sometimes feel like the Goldilocks of this campaign. Not too much, not too little, just right. And I think we should have a gas tax holiday and pay for it."

She also tried to rebut critics by saying that it's easy for people who can afford to pay to criticize.

Meanwhile, Obama once again stated his opposition to such a holiday while also campaigning in Indiana. "This isn't a real solution. This is a gimmick," he said. "And this is what Washington does whenever there's a big problem. They pretend that they're solving it to try to get though a political season but they don't really solve it. And unfortunately, after John McCain made the proposal ,I guess Sen. Clinton thought it was gonna poll well, so she said, 'Me too, I'll do the same thing.' and so now it's the McCain-Clinton proposal to suspend the gas tax.

He then said, "You know people are more concerned about looking good for the cameras and for politics than they are at actually solving problems. You remember when George Bush five years ago put up a big sign in front of an aircraft carrier saying 'Mission accomplished' in Iraq. I'm sure they thought that was good politics. Except five years later we're still in this war in Iraq."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton has picked up two superdelegate AFL-CIO state presidents in the past two days. Obama just picked up his own superdelegate AFL-CIO representative: Texas state vice president John Patrick.

Obama has picked up two superdelegates today. Clinton also picked up one, but lost one in Joe Andrew. (Obama is also likely to have three add ons from Illinois by Monday, as we noted earlier.)

The count:
SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 268-249
PLEDGED: Obama 1,490-1,334
OVERALL: 1,739-1,602

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Former DNC Chairman and superdelegate Joe Andrew drew a sharp line in the sand between himself and Clinton and called for the rest of the superdelegates -- and Democrats in his home state of Indiana -- to "heal the rift in this party and to unite around Barack Obama now," he said. "It's time for us to take on John McCain," who he reiterated has "been helped by this process."

The former Bill Clinton-appointed DNC chairman and early Hillary Clinton backer said Clinton's latest stand on the gas tax holiday, which he said essentially amounted to nothing more than political pandering, was "really one of the straws that broke the camel's back" in his decision to switch from Clinton to Obama.

"We have two good candidates, but we have two people who've run their campaigns in two different ways," Andrew said. "Barack Obama is serious about changing the process in politics …. That's what inspires me, and I haven't been inspired in a long time. I'm Inspired by someone who says you know we don't have to play the game.

"The gas tax [proposal] is a perfect example of that. It's also important to point out when someone is pandering and seeking political gain, as opposed to standing up for principle."

Whether it was Obama's handling of Wright or the gas tax holiday, Andrew said, "What you see is a principled stand, and that is truly shocking to people like me who've been in politics a long time."

Andrew went further on why he thinks Obama is the better candidate. "Barack Obama has to be the winner of our nomination," he said, citing that he has "more appeal to moderate, centrist America. I've always been seen as a centrist in our party. It's not just about positions; it's also about tone, it's about temperament."

Andrew tried to strike a unifying chord, saying Clinton and Gore would go down as the best tandem to serve the office. He also called Clinton and Obama an "embarrassment of riches" and said they were both good candidates. "You can be for someone without being against someone else," he said, but he added, "What I assume … is that she'd [Clinton] play the political theatre better than anyone else."

He said that he'd expect her to be good at putting out "symbols" and "signifiers" that would best get a "majority of people her way. What's inspiring about Barack Obama is that he doesn't do that. What I saw were principled answers and policy solutions. He's not going to get into political theatre … not going to put on that Kabuki Mask and do that."

He again called Obama "principled," who "stands up and says, 'No we don't have to do that. We can sit around a kitchen table and talk about real solutions … not about something that'll save you a half tank of gas."

Andrew also wrote a letter explaining his switch and tried to pre-but potential Clinton surrogate attacks on him for making the move. Here are some excerpts:

My endorsement of Senator Obama will not be welcome news to my friends and family at the Clinton campaign.  If the campaign's surrogates called Governor Bill Richardson, a respected former member of President Clinton's cabinet, a "Judas" for endorsing Senator Obama, we can all imagine how they will treat somebody like me.  They are the best practitioners of the old politics, so they will no doubt call me a traitor, an opportunist and a hypocrite.  I will be branded as disloyal, power-hungry, but most importantly, they will use the exact words that Republicans used to attack me when I was defending President Clinton.

When they use the same attacks made on me when I was defending them, they prove the callow hypocrisy of the old politics first perfected by Republicans.  I am an expert on this because these were the exact tools that I mastered as a campaign volunteer, a campaign manager, a State Party Chair and the National Chair of our Party.

…

Innuendo is easy. The truth is hard.

Sound bites are easy. Solutions are hard.

Spin is simple and easy.  Struggling with facts is complicated and hard.

…

The old players of the old political game will claim that I am betraying my old friend Senator Evan Bayh by switching my support to Senator Obama.  I believe that Evan Bayh would be a great President, and therefore a great Vice President.  I will continue to argue that he would be a great choice to be on the ticket with Barack Obama. 

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
On the fifth anniversary of President Bush's "Mission Accomplished" aircraft carrier landing, antiwar superdelegates -- supporting Clinton, Obama, or who remain uncommitted -- held a conference call with reporters calling for language to be adopted at August's Democratic convention for ending the Iraq war.

On the conference call, sponsored by the left-leaning group Win Without War, these superdelegates said their purpose is to ensure neither Democratic candidate -- should he/she win the presidency -- wavers on their support for ending the Iraq war fully. Rep. Barbara Lee, an Obama supporter, stressed the importance of the grassroots effort on the part of Democrats to show their support for the presidential candidates' plans to end the war.

"We need to make sure there isn't any fuzzy language," Rep. Jim McGovern, a Clinton supporter, added. "We have to demonstrate the Democratic Party gets it."

The campaign hopes to get more superdelegates to sign a petition for the Democratic National Platform to include a full withdrawal from Iraq with no permanent military bases behind; negotiations in the Middle East, including with the Iranian government, per recommendations by the Iraq Study Group, and an end to torture and closure of the Guantanamo Bay prison.

And in one sign that at least some Democrats are starting to come together, Rep. Lynn Woolsey -- a Clinton supporter -- said on the call she now also believes Obama will be able to successfully end the Iraq War. "From the beginning, I had full confidence in Hillary Clinton's commitment and strength to bring troops home," she said." Over time, I am also gaining confidence that Barack Obama will be able to do the same with the experience that he will gain."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton is up with a new ad in North Carolina featuring a glowing recommendation from North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley, who recently endorsed the New York senator.

[YouTube:z-J6cm0AiRA]

Here's the script for the 30-second ad, "Determined":
EASLEY: These are tough times in America and I think that Hillary is the one we can count on to get the job done. She's going to turn the economy around, she's going bring new jobs, she's going to get some tax cuts for the middle class for a change. She's going to make health care available to everybody in this country, and she's going to do everything she can to help every child reach their full potential.

She is so resilient, so determined. She knows how to deliver. She'll be a great president.

CLINTON: I'm Hillary Clinton and I approved this message.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
This morning we reported on the superdelegate switch of Joe Andrew for Obama. But First Read has confirmed that Clinton is expected to pick up one today as well -- John Olsen, president of the Connecticut AFL-CIO. The Hartford Courant first reported it this morning. Olsen will hold a 2 p.m. news conference at the state capitol to announce the endorsement, per a Connecticut AFL-CIO source.

Yesterday, Clinton got the backing of another state AFL-CIO president, Bill George of Pennsylvania.

To the count...
SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 268-248
PLEDGED: Obama 1,490-1,334
OVERALL: 1,738-1,602

*** UPDATE *** First Read is aware of the three potential Illinois add-ons, who are for Obama (Daley, Currie, Stroger). We are not adding them into Obama's count as yet, since they will be officially named after the state convention on Monday.