NBC News characterizes Indiana's Democratic primary as too early to call

From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell, Adam Verdugo and NBC's AnaMaria Arumi
Two things that stick out to us in the North Carolina primary: Early voting could play an important factor and, so far, voters seem to have made up their minds well before today's contest. Remember, early voting in North Carolina started on April 17th -- 20 days before today's primary. Democratic Party officials predicted about 400,000 people voted early, either in person or by mail, which means those votes were cast before the latest controversy with Obama's former pastor Reverend Wright.

Let's look at the key groups who decided to vote early or absentee in North Carolina. Over a third (37%) were white women, 30% were over age 60 and more than a third were college graduates. Only 7% were first-time voters. So far this season we've seen that Hillary Clinton has held an advantage among those voting early, but Barack Obama has made a major effort to get his supporters to cast ballots early in this go round.

Also, voters in the Tar Heel state made their decision very early. Only 19% decided on their candidate in the last week. An overwhelming number of voters -- 81% -- said  they made their decision well before that.

NORTH CAROLINA:
WHITE WOMEN: 37%
OVER 60: 30%
COLLEGE GRADS: 39%
FIRST TIME VOTERS: 7%

Advocates of early voting argue that it makes it easier for people to vote -- in some states, 50% of the votes are cast in advance. But others question the practice, noting that early voters often make their decisions before they have a chance to see how the campaign unfolds. The news last week around both the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's statements and Obama's public divorce from him (and denouncement of his statements) might have played into some voters decisions.

The polls are still open, but turning now to voters who voted early in the day today, we asked them when they made up their minds.

TIME OF DECISION NC:
TODAY: 8%
LAST 3 DAYS: 6%
LAST WEEK: 5%
LAST MONTH: 20%
BEFORE THAT: 61%

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House Democrats today announced that they will vote to send President Bush and his successor $184 billion to spend on the war, plus a couple of other items that are politically popular but have not been requested by the president and may be veto bait.

The "emergency" package, to be considered on Thursday of this week, gives the president much of the $108 billion that has asked for the remainder of this year, plus $66 billion that would sustain the war effort into the first months of a new administration.

But the House will also be voting on an extension of unemployment benefits, the establishment of a new GI Bill for educating veterans, $500 million more in international food aid, and money for Louisiana levees. These items will be hard for many Republicans to oppose, though the president has not asked for any of it to be included in the war spending package.

There also will be a vote to attach some strings to the war money. Redeployment out of combat in Iraq would have to begin within 30 days and be completed by the end of 2009; troops would have to have as much "dwell time" out of theater as in; any treaty with Iraq would have to be ratified by the Senate; and Iraqis would have to match American spending dollar for dollar on reconstruction and development in their country.

There will also be more money for Pentagon weapons development, which some may not see as "emergency" spending that isn't paid for.

PROCESS ALERT: Beware all ye who enter here...
Remember when Democrats promised to be more fair to the minority if they were elected to run the place? How they wouldn't hold votes open and that they would allow more floor amendments and they would let the committee process work its will? That turned out to be a lot of hooey. They have discovered that it's near impossible to get anything done and be procedurally "fair," at least as they themselves defined the term in the run up to the 2006 election.

SO... this massive war spending bill will NOT go through a committee, will likely NOT be subject to any amendments put forth by Republicans, and will be presented in such a way as to take away the one motion to present an alternative that is almost always afforded to the minority.

How do they get away with it? First, because as the majority they can. Second, it's really the only way to get done what they need and want to get done. Third, they don't' feel too badly about it, because they got it in the neck in a similar fashion for 12 long years. And finally, because they know that the public doesn't care to hear whining about the process, and that reporters, producers, and editors would therefore rather not take up space and time telling people about it.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Former GOP Speaker Newt Gingrich sounds the alarm after Republicans lost a second-straight special election in a GOP-held seat. "The Republican loss in the special election for Louisiana's Sixth Congressional District last Saturday should be a sharp wake up call for Republicans: Either Congressional Republicans are going to chart a bold course of real change or they are going to suffer decisive losses this November."

"The facts are clear and compelling. Saturday's loss was in a district that President Bush carried by 19 percentage points in 2004 and that the Republicans have held since 1975. This defeat follows on the loss of Speaker Hastert's seat in Illinois. That seat had been held by a Republican for 76 years with the single exception of the 1974 Watergate election when the Democrats held it for one term. That same seat had been carried by President Bush 55-44% in 2004."

Gingrich offers some suggestions for the GOP leadership -- like repealing the gas tax and paying for it by cutting discretionary spending; overhauling the Census Bureau (?); establishing a one-year moratorium on earmarks; and making English the official language of the US government -- and he concludes:

"No Republicans should kid themselves. It's time to face up to a stark choice. Without change we could face a catastrophic election this fall. Without change the Republican Party in the House could revert to the permanent minority status it had from 1930 to 1994... It's time for real change to avoid a real disaster."

From NBC's Mark Murray
"The Straight Talk Express took another sharp right turn today as John McCain promised his conservative base four more years of out-of-touch judges that would threaten a woman's right to choose, gut the campaign finance reform that bears his own name, and trample the rights and interests of the American people," Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor said in a statement. "Barack Obama has always believed that our courts should stand up for social and economic justice, and what's truly elitist is to appoint judges who will protect the powerful and leave ordinary Americans to fend for themselves."

*** UPDATE *** Here's the Clinton camp's response: "We won't take lectures on the right way to approach the Constitution from Sen. McCain, who voted for extreme conservative judges like Justice Thomas. In an effort to pander to conservative voters, Sen. McCain has signaled his intention to appoint right-wing judges who are committed to rolling back women's rights and civil rights, elevating the interests of big business over the rights of workers and consumers, affirming executive branch power grabs, and undermining our common core freedoms. Sen. Clinton has a different vision. She will appoint judges who respect the separation of powers, are steadfast in protecting civil rights and liberties, including the right of privacy, and who cherish equal justice under law."

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. -- Hillary Clinton relied on a host of racing analogies this morning as she visited the famed Indy Motor Speedway on a day that could decide the fate of her bid for the nomination.

Clinton came to the Indianapolis landmark to visit with Indy car driver Sara Fisher, a native Hoosier, who said she cast her vote for the New York senator.

"We need to get on track in America, and head toward the finish line to change this country," Clinton said when asked what her election day message is. "There's a good driving analogy. If you want to move forward you put it in D. If you want to move back you put it in R."

Fisher quickly interjected that her car doesn't go in reverse.

"That's right. Full speed ahead the whole time," Clinton said.

Asked for a definitive answer about whether she'd stay in the race beyond today, she threw up a caution flag.

"I'm looking forward to find out what happens," she said. "I'm always interested in finding out what voters actually think, because there's all kind of speculation. It'd be like predicting who's going to win the Indy 500 before it's even started. We don't know. People prepare; they work hard; they do their best. Life is unpredictable; racing's unpredictable. Politics is unpredictable. So I'm just going to see what the voters have to say."

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. -- On a day where public attention is being lavished on the state's Democratic Party, John McCain tried to address forgotten Republicans today at Wake Forest University this morning, explaining why he's the candidate to trust when it comes to nominating federal judges.
 
Using key confidence-building phrases like "judicial restraint" and "limits to the scope of judicial power," McCain lauded the appointment of Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito, saying he would nominate justices in their mold -- notably leaving out more polarizing Justices Thomas and Scalia. 
 
Flanked by NC Sen. Richard Burr, former Solicitor General Ted Olson and former TN Sen. (and presidential candidate) Fred Thompson, McCain faced many of his critics head on by commending the actions of the so-called "Gang of 14" -- of which he was a member.
 
The bipartisan "gang," which is criticized by many partisan conservatives, brokered an agreement not to "filibuster [judicial nominees] unless there were extraordinary circumstances," McCain said.
 
"This parliamentary truce was brief, but it lasted long enough to allow the confirmation of Justices Roberts, Alito, and many other judges," he continued. "And it showed that serious differences can be handled in a serious way, without allowing Senate business to unravel in a chaos of partisan anger."
 
McCain went on to criticize his Democratic opponents' for not supporting the bipartisan efforts to get Roberts appointed, even going so far as to quote a speech Obama gave at the time.
 
"Sen. Obama, in particular, likes to talk up his background as a lecturer on law, and also as someone who can work across the aisle to get things done," McCain began. "But when Judge Roberts was nominated, it seemed to bring out more the lecturer in Sen. Obama than it did the guy who can get things done. … And just where did John Roberts fall short, by the senator's measure?
 
"Well, a justice of the court, as Sen. Obama explained it -- and I quote -- should share quote 'one's deepest values, one's core concerns, one's broader perspectives on how the world works, and the depth and breadth of one's empathy.' End of quote. These vague words attempt to justify judicial activism -- come to think of it, they sound like an activist judge wrote them."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Delegate Counts:
SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 272.5-256
PLEDGED: Obama 1,492-1,338
OVERALL: Obama 1,748-1,610.5

Some superdelegate adjustments today. After Clinton picked up the support of Democrats Abroad superdelegate Theresa Morelli, now living in Milan, Italy, we are adjusting the count down for both candidates.

Superdelegates from Democrats Abroad are only counted as HALF. So, since Obama has picked up four from Dems Abroad, slice that to two, and since Clinton has now picked up three abroad, slice that in half to 1.5.

Superdelegates from the territories of American Samoa, Guam and the Virgin Islands all have full votes.

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
Since I've been here reporting in Indiana, there's been a lot of talk about 1968 -- the last time it seemed that the votes the state would cast on Election Day would "count."

Last night, in the heavy, almost summer-like air at dusk, was the first time that I actually felt a sense of history. Voters lined up down more than five avenue blocks to get in to see Obama speak, and these were the ones that didn't have tickets to get into the event. Vendors were hawking buttons and T-shirts that read "Change" and "Hope, "with the candidate's face emblazoned on the backs of shirts and cars and trucks slowed down to see what the commotion was about.

The monuments were lit up, and gospel music rose up from the speakers and carried through the air. Rep. Andre Carson, an Obama supporter, spoke to the crowd as it waited hours for Obama to show up. And standing behind the flag and building that could have looked like the Jefferson Monument, you could imagine what it must have been like when those three syllable titans, MLK, RFK, were carrying a message that caught people's minds and lifted their hearts. It was breathtaking.
 
I wandered back across the lawn and shared a step on the War Memorial -- which is situated across the street from the lawn and is a towering marble monument with a balcony and hundreds of steps -- with an older black woman. She was 60 years old. She wouldn't let me film her or tape her, and she wouldn't even give me her name. (Though she demanded mine and tucked my card away with the promise to email me her specs after she checked me out.) And we talked about her parents, who she said felt the excitement that she did back then. "It was all televised then too," she said.
 
We talked a lot about authenticity and whether you could trust the pictures of this election -- the rallies, the crowds -- and what candidates say and what they do. She used to like "Hillary" and still does, but feels like Obama is running to be president so he can enact the change he wants to bring, while Clinton is running for president to be president. She is Christian, pro-life and said that she might vote for McCain if Obama doesn't win the Dem nomination. She pinned it on the fact that at least McCain, unlike Clinton, opposes abortion. She's hoping that Obama just won't win tomorrow, but that he'll have an "upset."  She asked me if I thought that could happen, and I hedged. 
 
It's hard like it always is to judge what you see on a night like last night -- massive crowds, music, inspiring words -- with what will happen in the ballot box in the morning. But voters like her are still holding out hope, telling me that she's been praying hard.
 
Who knows what will happen, but I find myself pondering a quote from Howard Dean at the recent Jefferson-Jackson Dinner Sunday night: "Americans always want change, but they never want quite as much as they say they want before they go in the polling place," he said. "So we are going to have a very close election."
 
That might sum up in Indiana in a nutshell.

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
GREENWOOD, IN -- At an early morning stop at a diner here after polls opened, Obama predicted a close race in Indiana.

"I feel good," he said in response to a question from a reporter. "I think we've campaigned hard and well in this state and I've met wonderful people like this gentleman right here. And, uh, I think I think it's gonna be close. I think it's gonna be close. I don't think anybody really knows exactly what's gonna happen. So but as usual, I'm seeing a lot of enthusiasm among the voters. People are just really engaged and excited about this campaign, this process."

Obama spent about 40 minutes shaking hands and chatting with a mostly older, white crowd at the Four Seasons Family Restaurant outside Indianapolis.

He sat at the counter with Rick Jones, who said he had been coming to the restaurant for 20 years and sitting in the same seat. He had no idea Obama would be stopping by and said he was voting for him.

Obama ate only part of his House Omelet, complaining that he had lost seven or eight pounds on the campaign trail. And part of the problem was getting only a few minutes to eat. He was repeatedly interrupted by people, including one man who asked him to talk to his wife on a cell phone.

A 19-year-old, Jordan Stefanov, came in wearing a sticker indicating he had voted and told Obama he was his guy. 

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The beginning of the end? Is today the last day on the campaign trail? Sure, there are six more contests beyond these two in Indiana and North Carolina. But after today, there will be more undeclared superdelegates (264) and more disputed delegates (366 in Florida and Michigan) for the campaigns to fight over than there will be delegates earned in the remaining primaries (217). Indeed, there's an argument to be made that after today, there are more delegates to be had INSIDE THE BELTWAY than out on the trail. So for all intents and purposes, today is the last shopping day of the primary season for the two Dems to impress the superdelegates on their issues. Can Obama hang tough with white voters, especially after the past two weeks? Can Clinton win any significant chunks of the black or youth vote? Those questions may not get answered fully today, but how each performs in their "road" game demographic tests will go a long way in pushing these supers in one direction or the other.

VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the expected split decision in today's Indiana and North Carolina primaries.

*** The basics: At stake are a total of 187 pledged delegates -- 115 in North Carolina and 72 in Indiana. Polls open in North Carolina at 6:30 am ET and close at 7:30 pm ET. In Indiana, most polls open at 6:00 am ET and close at 6:00 pm ET, but because some parts of the state are in the Central Time Zone, the official poll closing time is 7:00 pm ET. And just to give you a sense of where the candidates think they're the strongest, Clinton holds her Election Night rally in Indianapolis, while Obama holds his in Raleigh, NC. Interestingly, however, Clinton seems to be on the upswing in North Carolina, and Obama seems on the upswing in Indiana. Yet both are likely to win on their "home" demographic courts. So what would the Vegas lines be today? Our guess: five points in each state, which should already be considered a perception victory for Clinton. But given the closet superdelegate support Obama seems to have, he's been given the benefit of the doubt with some if he simply wins North Carolina by, well, about five points. You'll know it will be a mediocre to bad night for Obama if his campaign has to talk about who won the most delegates tonight, rather than by how much they won each state.

*** How big is African-American turnout? There's lots of chatter about the 40% of the early vote in North Carolina being African American. If that number somehow holds through Election Day voting, it would be an Obama blowout. But Obama folks caution that they saw this same phenomenon in Texas and found that they had simply moved Election Day voters to early voters. Other turnout numbers to watch for… Obama's performance among white voters in North Carolina. Will he get 30% or more? If so, he wins. If he drops below 30% of the white vote in that state, he'll be more reliant on a stronger African-American turnout. Meanwhile, in Indiana, don't underestimate the Chicago media market effect in the negative for Obama. Why? Local Chicago TV has been as obsessive -- if not more -- than the national media. No national media outlet, for instance, has asked their news helicopter to hover over Rev. Wright's house. How many Northwest Indiana households saw THAT?

*** Where we stand: Obama leads in pledged delegates per the NBC hard count (1,492 to 1,338), overall delegates (1,750 to 1,611), the popular vote (14,449,123 to 13,965,804), and the total number of contests won (30 to 15). Note: We're not including Texas in this contest count, given that Clinton won the primary but Obama won the caucus and netted the most total Texas delegates.

*** A few other questions: When is John Edwards going to get his due? In all seriousness, haven't both candidates attempted to channel their best John Edwards in these last two months? That said, it's also worth pointing out that he and his wife never endorsed, even though one of today's contests is their home state. That either tells us about their true indecision or their secret fear that endorsing Clinton wouldn't be enough and would hurt Edwards' cred... If Hillary wins North Carolina, will Bill Clinton deserve all the credit? And does this mean the media will begin to scrutinize him again? Just what would his role in a Hillary White House be? And what about those potential conflicts of interests (Colombia, Giustra, etc.)? Our point: With the good of Bill Clinton finding his role and voice can come the bad once the spotlight comes back on… And what message does the National Right to Life's robo-call effort on behalf of Clinton send to undeclared superdelegates on the electability score. NRTL is one of the more aggressive third-party conservative groups in the biz, and they usually are helping to telegraph mainstream conservative opinion on who the opponent is or isn't.

*** And still more questions: When was the last time Obama introduced a policy initiative that forced a debate? Now, part of the reason is that Clinton has been much more adept at finding issues they disagree on, while she hugs anything he introduces proactively. Still, Obama hasn't driven the issue agenda since the days that Iraq was the No. 1 issue… And given that Indiana is an open primary, will we see some solid evidence that Republicans are trying to play games with the ongoing Democratic primary? If Clinton, according to the exit polls, gets more than 50% of GOP voters, will we know something is up? And can we stop calling the dispute over Florida/Michigan the "nuclear" option? When even the chair of the DNC says those two states' delegations will be seated, it's hard to call it some sort of nuclear option. Obama supporters believe it's the nuclear option, Clinton supporters believe it's part of the process. But so does Howard Dean. 

*** Down the ballot: Clinton vs. Obama, however, isn't the only race in Indiana and North Carolina that bears watching today. Both states are holding competitive gubernatorial primaries, and a large turnout by female voters in the Clinton-Obama race could end up benefiting the two women who are running for governor, the Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy tells First Read. In Indiana, Jim Schellinger competes against Jill Long Thompson in the Democratic primary for the right to face incumbent GOP Gov. Mitch Daniels. Polls for this Dem race have been all over the place, Duffy says. In North Carolina, Lt. Gov Bev Perdue and state Treasurer Richard Moore -- both of whom have endorsed Obama -- square off to be the Democrats' gubernatorial nominee, and Perdue appears to be the favorite. Perdue seems to have gotten more credit for endorsing Obama with black voters, even though Moore endorsed him first. As one consultant told us yesterday, this is NOT the year of the white guy, and we may see that in BOTH states today. That winner will face the victor of a crowded GOP field led by Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and state Sen. Fred Smith, but it's possible that no Republican crosses the 40% threshold to avoid a run off. Just asking: How important is Clinton's candidacy to both women running in Indiana and North Carolina and would both be in a position of winning without her?

*** Judicial philosophy day: It's probably not surprising that McCain picked this day -- primary day in Indiana and North Carolina -- to give a speech on his judicial philosophy in Winston-Salem, NC. The speech, according to excerpts released by the campaign, will certainly please social conservatives, and it also will raise this DNC talking point: that once again on an important issue, McCain -- he of the Gang of 14 -- has taken a position that doesn't contrast much with Bush's. "My two prospective opponents and I have very different ideas about the nature and proper exercise of judicial power. We would nominate judges of a different kind, a different caliber, a different understanding of judicial authority and its limits," McCain is expected to say. "I have my own standards of judicial ability, experience, philosophy, and temperament. And Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Samuel Alito meet those standards in every respect. They would serve as the model for my own nominees if that responsibility falls to me."  At his speech, McCain will be joined by conservatives like Ted Olson and Fred Thompson.

*** On the trail: Clinton holds her Election Night rally in Indianapolis; McCain, after his speech on the judiciary, raises money in Greensboro, NC before heading to Michigan for a fundraiser; and Obama begins his day in Indianapolis before traveling to Raleigh, NC, where he holds his Election Night rally.
 
Countdown to West Virginia: 7 days
Countdown to Kentucky and Oregon: 14 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 182 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 259 days
 
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The New York Times' Nagourney delves into the potential results of tonight -- from a Clinton sweep (it could change the world), to an Obama sweep (lights out for Clinton), to somewhere in between (his most likely outcome). 

The Washington Post's Balz has his now-traditional eight questions that tonight's results could help answer.

The Boston Globe's Canellos: "Voters in today's Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina will offer the first real evidence of whether Barack Obama's campaign has been damaged by the latest controversy surrounding his former pastor, while Hillary Clinton faces another make-or-break moment."

INDIANA: Obama strongholds:
-- Indianapolis (26% of the overall population is African American)
-- Northwest: Gary (84% of the 100,000 population is black.) Gary and other Lake County and surrounding counties are familiar with Obama as they are in the Chicago media markets and the only areas in the Central Time Zone.
-- Bloomington: Indiana University, with its 50,000 students, fits Obama's demographics perfectly

Clinton strongholds:
-- Northeast: Large Catholic populations. South Bend is where Notre Dame is.
East: Muncie, Anderson: Areas that basically look like Ohio; they've been heavily affected by manufacturing job losses.
-- Southwest: Terre Haute, Evansville
-- Southeast: This is the Ninth Congressional District, which includes the famed Milan High of "Hoosiers" movie fame, and it's one of those battleground districts with LOTS of general-election swing voters.

The New York Post: "Clinton attacked the financial backbone of her home state when she told Indiana voters it's time to hit the 'Wall Street money brokers' over the nationwide recession. Clinton leveled the comment -- one of a series of increasingly populist remarks she has made -- just hours after also targeting OPEC, vowing to bust its 'cartel, a monopoly that gets together once every couple of months in some conference room in some plush place in the world.'"

Just why did Rep. Baron Hill (D), a perennial GOP target of the GOP, decide to pick Obama and not Clinton, even though Clinton will carry his congressional district? Is this about decades-long Clinton baggage vs. weeks-long Obama baggage?

MSNBC.com's Andy Merten writes that in traditionally conservative Southern Indiana, picking a choice for the top of the ticket can be a politically risky move for a Democratic congressman. This quandary is illustrated in both districts, here. In CD-9, Rep. Baron Hill announced his support for Obama last week, but in CD-8, the tough-talking Rep. Brad Ellsworth, a former Vanderburgh Sheriff, will hardly comment about the presidential race.

USA Today wonders if the college vote will turn out big in Indiana.

Relatedly, the Wall Street Journal wonders if this being exam week on college campuses across both states will cost Obama votes.

Under intermittent drizzle at the American Legion Mall in Indianapolis last night, Obama rallied a crowd of 21,000, NBC/NJ's Athena Jones notes. His message was a standard stump speech with a laundry list of goals for an Obama Administration. He also hit his rivals once again on the gas tax holiday issue, linking it to what he called old politics and truthfulness. And he criticized Hillary Clinton's call to fight the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"Today Sen. Clinton said 'I'm gonna take it right to OPEC," he said. "Well, I thought to myself, you say you've been in the White House for eight years, you've had two terms as a United States senator and haven't said a word about OPEC and now suddenly you're going to take it right to OPEC, when you've opposed fuel efficiency standards that would actually reduce demand for oil and put OPEC in a bind? That's not being straight with the American people. That's not the kind of politics we need. We need real relief."

Meanwhile, NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli reports that Clinton -- running on fumes as the campaign winds down in Indiana -- made one last push for her gas-tax plan last night in Evansville, arguing that being president is not "some abstract exercise."

"I want you to know the solutions that I am proposing to solve the problems that America faces," she told a modest but enthusiastic crowd at Central High School. "This is not some abstract exercise for me. This is about rolling up our sleeves and getting to work and making life better for hard working middle class families."

NORTH CAROLINA: Obama strongholds: Coastal Carolina (with large African American populations), Charlotte, and the Research Triangle (Chapel Hill, Durham, and Raleigh).
Clinton strongholds: the Western part of the state bordering Tennessee, as well as the counties bordering South Carolina.
Bellwether? One area to watch that could tell how the whole state's votes go: the suburbs outside Raleigh. One North Carolina Democrat says if Obama wins 55%-45% in those areas, then that could be a 7% statewide finish in his favor.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the primary will end days -- not weeks -- after June 3.

The Hill reads between the lines of some recent Reid statements on the presidential primary, and speculates he's leaning Clinton. "The Nevada Democrat has not come out against the superdelegates voting to overturn the candidate with more pledged delegates, Clinton's best path to the nomination. Reid is also less concerned about the primary dragging on into June."

The New York Times looks at Clinton's transformation into the working-class candidate. "Whatever the results of the primaries on Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina, Mrs. Clinton has accomplished the seemingly impossible in those states. Somehow, a woman who has not regularly filled her own gasoline tank in well over a decade, who with her husband made $109 million in the last eight years and who vacations with Oscar de la Renta, has transformed herself into a working-class hero."

More: "But what is more remarkable about Mrs. Clinton's approach in Indiana and North Carolina is how minimally she uses her own biography. Perhaps because almost nothing she could say about her life would sound humble or hardscrabble — she grew up in an affluent Chicago suburb, went to prestigious schools and is, of course, a lawyer — Mrs. Clinton says very little about herself at all. Instead, she focuses on her audience's concerns. In most speeches, she now offers just one suggestive strand of her life story."

The New York Sun wonders if Clinton's new anti-business, populist rhetoric, will cost her Wall Street support at some point.

If Hillary comes close or wins North Carolina, Bill Clinton will deserve a lot of the credit. Would this make up for him turning South Carolina from a loss to a rout?

"Crisp bacon, TiVo and round-the-clock Internet service are just a few of the reasons why Hillary Rodham Clinton loves America. The Democratic presidential candidate jokingly delivered her Top 10 list on CBS' 'The Late Show' on Monday, the eve of crucial primaries in Indiana and North Carolina."

According to advanced excerpts of his speech on his judicial philosophy today, McCain will blast both Obama and Clinton for supporting judicial activism. "They are both lawyers themselves, and don't seem to mind at all when fundamental questions of social policy are preemptively decided by judges instead of by the people and their elected representatives. Nor have they raised objections to the unfair treatment of judicial nominees. For both Senator Obama and Senator Clinton, it turned out that not even John Roberts was quite good enough for them… And just where did John Roberts fall short, by [Obama's] measure?  Well, a justice of the court, as Senator Obama explained it – and I quote – should share 'one's deepest values, one's core concerns, one's broader perspectives on how the world works, and the depth and breadth of one's empathy.'" 
 
"These vague words attempt to justify judicial activism – come to think of it, they sound like an activist judge wrote them. And whatever they mean exactly, somehow Senator Obama's standards proved too lofty a standard for a nominee who was brilliant, fair-minded, and learned in the law, a nominee of clear rectitude who had proved more than the equal of any lawyer on the Judiciary Committee, and who today is respected by all as the Chief Justice of the United States.  Somehow, by Senator Obama's standard, even Judge Roberts didn't measure up. And neither did Justice Samuel Alito. Apparently, nobody quite fits the bill except for an elite group of activist judges, lawyers, and law professors who think they know wisdom when they see it – and they see it only in each other."

A little help from his friends… "During its cash-starved days before the New Hampshire primary, John McCain's presidential campaign got some help from a political action committee set up to help congressional candidates who would fight wasteful spending in Washington," the Boston Globe writes. "But the Porkbuster political action committee set up by US Representative Jeff Flake violated federal contribution limits and, by its own account, wasted $2,100 to rent Granite State hotel rooms that were never used."

Is Russia or China the most important issue the media doesn't cover? On the issue of Russia, don't miss McCain's comments about kicking them out of the G8. It's not a new position for him, but he's not backing down from the idea.

Also, McCain has started a Spanish-language Web site to try and woo Hispanic voters, and he did it on… Cinco de Mayo.

The New York Times looks at Obama's attempt to change his pitch to working-class voters. "For the last 10 days leading up to Tuesday's primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, Mr. Obama's campaign has unfolded against a choreographed backdrop of factory floors and farmsteads, dinner tables and diners. He has talked less often of the audacity of hope and more often of the anxieties of middle-class Americans, while throwing in allusions to Nascar, fatty foods and beer, and playing the occasional game of basketball."

Our question: What took him so long? Wasn't this an issue after Ohio?

David Brooks is back in Obama's corner. He compares the Obama-Clinton Sunday show appearances, and gives the "human" award to Obama.

It does NOT help Clinton's cause with superdelegates that a potent conservative group like the National Right to Life is paying for anti-Obama robo-calls in Indiana. It goes right to the heart of the "who does the GOP fear more?" question.

Former Indiana congressman Tim Roemer, an Obama supporter, released this statement in response: "As a pro-life Catholic Democrat, one of the main reasons I endorsed Barack Obama is because he approaches issues from a non-ideological standpoint, and on issues like abortion, he deeply respects the views of folks on the other side of the argument. He believes that if we focus on what unites us, we can accomplish more than we ever will by retreating into our corners and shouting each other. National Right to Life is running these calls because they know that Senator Clinton will be the easier Democrat to run against in the general election—and this is their way of giving her a helping hand in this tough primary battle."

There are a lot of other races on both ballots in both states today. And this massive turnout has really tossed a wrench into how to plan for these downballot contests. The New York Times on the Indiana gubernatorial contest: "Many local candidates have been left to carve out new political rules for their survival. Among them, as described by political aides here: If a presidential candidate (or his or her spouse, child, surrogate or favorite Hoosier musician) announces an event on the same day in the same town you plan to be in, immediately change your schedule; no one will show up at yours. Or, conversely, play piggyback: attend the presidential candidates' biggest rallies, as Ms. Long Thompson has, to work the crowd outside, shaking hands and introducing yourself."

From MSNBC.com's Andy Merten
ORLEANS, Ind. -- Amidst the candidate rallies, surrogate speeches, and national media invasion here, down-ballot Hoosier candidates are also preparing for Tuesday's primary and November's general election. Former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R) is one such congressional hopeful, looking to reclaim Indiana's 9th district seat, which he lost to Baron Hill in the 2006 Democratic takeover.
 
Despite the current lack of state press coverage of congressional races and the inherent disadvantages in fundraising and brand identification that GOP House hopefuls face this year, Sodrel does have two potential advantages in 2008: He's running in a district that slants overwhelmingly Republican in recent presidential election years (Bush carried the 9th with 59 percent in 2004) and his opponent has publicly endorsed Obama.
 
Sodrel, who is running unopposed in Tuesday's primary, said he was "surprised" when Hill announced his backing of Obama on Wednesday, as he believes Democrats in his district will turn over heavy support for Clinton this week.
 
"In the primary there's no question that people in this district are in favor of Hillary," he said over a bacon cheeseburger during an interview in a diner in this town of just over 2,000, after marching Orleans' annual spring parade along with a posse of campaign volunteers.
 
Citing the Wright ruckus and Obama's "bitter" gaffe, Sodrel said Obama has created a "rural backlash," adding that primary voters here will likely base their decisions Tuesday on the personality differences between the two presidential hopefuls, as "their policies are very close."
 
"If he had done it immediately, at square one, then I think they probably would've accepted it," he said of Obama's public divorce from his former pastor on Tuesday. "But he just waited too long.  I think most of them perceive now it's just a political move."
 
As for his own race, the congressional hopeful was reluctant to say he'll use the top of the Democratic ticket as a talking point against his opponent, but also doesn't believe that President Bush will hinder his chances. Though he anticipates some state Democrats running an anti-Bush campaign this fall, he doesn't think voters will be swayed but such appeals. "People are bright enough to know that this president will not be serving another term."

From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Adam Verdugo
Tom Daschle, an Obama supporter, said in an interview today on MSNBC that undecided superdelegates would be more than "ticked" if the Clinton campaign tries to force the so-called "nuclear option" and encourages the Rules and Bylaws committee, which meets May 31st, to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates.
 
The former South Dakota senator said he was amazed at the number of undecided superdelegates that have called him in the last 24 hours saying that it would be an "absolute disaster."  
 
Asked if the superdelegates would be "ticked" if the nuclear option were implemented he replied, "If we overturn what has happened in all these elections all over the country and do something like that, ticked is mild compared to the feeling I am getting from reports all over the country today."

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Clinton's and McCain's separate proposals for suspending the gas tax this summer will very likely run out of gas shortly after hitting the Senate floor later this month. Because it takes 60 votes to pass any controversial bill in the Senate, McCain and Clinton will easily fall short. Democrats would loath to support virtually any proposal from the presumptive Republican nominee, and support for Clinton's measure is lukewarm among her own Democratic colleagues.

When Democratic leaders unveil their energy/gas price legislation later this week, Clinton's provision is NOT expected to be part of it. Why? Since Obama is against the Clinton plan, leadership doesn't want play favorites. Instead, Clinton will likely get a chance to offer her proposal as an amendment. Equally notable is the divide among Senate Democrats -- and the leadership itself -- over whether suspending the tax makes economic sense. A perfect example is Sen. Patty Murray, a Senate leader and Clinton supporter, but who opposes the gas-tax holiday. 

As for McCain's plan, GOP leaders didn't include it in their energy bill when they introduced it last week, saying instead it focuses is on oil production. But even if all 49 GOP senators faithfully lined up behind McCain to support it, they'd need more than a handful of wayward Democrats to reach what would likely be the 60 vote threshold for passage.

Then there's the windfall profit tax idea, which Clinton and Obama both support. Well, it's is running on fumes, too. The last time a similar measure came up in November 2005, it couldn't even draw in 40 Democratic votes. While gas prices have increased dramatically since then, you'd be hard pressed to find 20 Republicans who'd vote with Clinton and Obama on almost anything.

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
DURHAM, NC -- With less than 24 hours to go before voters in North Carolina and Indiana hit the polls, Obama summed up the case for his candidacy to an undecided voter at town hall here in the Research Triangle area.

Obama said, in part, that voters found him more trustworthy than his opponent, and he sought to argue that his biggest potential problems -- issues that could cause pause among some voters like his association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright -- had all come out.

The woman said her biggest concern was choosing the most electable candidate. Obama said he was going to try to win her over, and he launched into a long soliloquy on why she should choose him, beginning by talking about the success his campaign had had attracting voters who want to change the old Washington politics and about his belief that the current state of the economy and the country as a whole was an opportunity to gain voters across party lines.

"When 80% of the country says the country is on the wrong track, that means you can attract independents and some Republicans into a coalition to really not just win an election but govern -- and that's been the idea behind this campaign and we've been very successful," he said.

As he has done in recent days at a press conference and in television interviews, Obama acknowledged he had had a rough few weeks, but said he was still going strong, in spite of the bad press. "Once you're a front-runner, then it is, I think, the obligation of the candidates who are behind to try to whack you over the head, and the press is happy to oblige. And so there was a kitchen-sink strategy employed that was throwing a whole bunch of stuff at me, and we made some mistakes -- some self-inflicted and, you know, most recently obviously there's been this furor over remarks of my former pastor which there's no doubt we took a hit on," he said. "But if you think about it, as tough a press month as we've had and as many attempts to knock us off stride as there have been, the fact that we're still standing here and still moving forward towards the nomination, I think, indicates the degree to which the core message of this campaign is the right one: That it's not enough just to replace the party in White House, but we've got to change how politics is done.

He went on to say it was important for the American people to see their president as someone who could be trusted. "I think the majority of people do find me trustworthy, more than they do the other candidate, and we can't solve problems if people don't think that their leaders are telling them the truth," he said "If they think their leader is just saying whatever it is that helps them get to the next election, you can never ask them for sacrifice because they're thinking 'Well I don't want to be played for a sap, a patsy. So there's something about our campaign that's right, that's true and I think can tap into the American people's spirit for change."

The Illinois senator sought to knock down the argument put forth by the Clinton campaign that he could not win big states (like Pennsylvania and California), saying polls showed just the opposite and argued he was be the best candidate to go up against presumptive Republican nominee John McCain on a long list of issues where they disagree, from the economy to Iraq to healthcare to college affordability.

In talking about having maintained strength in some polls, Obama also suggested -- in what seemed like a daring challenge to his critics -- that the problems his opponent could bring up had been exhausted. "Despite the problems we've had in the last month, which basically exhaust my problems -- I mean you know that folks are reaching when the big attack on me is I'm not wearing a flag pin or that I served on a board with a guy who was a member of the Weathermen back in the 1960s, they're reaching, you know. This is the best they could do," he said.

And he tried to shoot down Clinton's contention that she had been vetted, saying the arguments against her would be recycled. "Don't buy into this electability argument," he said in closing. "Go with who you think best represents you vision of where America needs to go. And if you do that, I'm absolutely confident that that person will win. I think this is opportunity to make a clear break from the past."

Many of the questions during the gathering here of some 150 people -- a crowd that was about 80% white, 20% minority -- focused on clean energy, but Obama also touched on the gas tax holiday issue again.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Obama has picked up four more superdelegates today; Clinton has picked up none.

Three Maryland delegates were scheduled to hold a 2:30 p.m. ET press conference in College Park, Md., to announce their endorsements of Obama: former Gov. Parris Glendening, Democratic Party Chairman Michael Cryor and Vice chairwoman Lauren Dugas Glover. (Note: We already had Cryor on our list and added in Glendening over the weekend when he was named an add-on. Glover is new in our count, so she is added in.)

Obama officially picks up the three Illinois add-ons: Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, Illinois House Maj. Leader Barbara Flynn Currie and Cook County Board President Todd Stroger. (They were announced Thursday, but were not added into our count until today when they were made official at a state party meeting.)

The Delegate Counts:
SUPERDELEGATES: Clinton 273-258
PLEDGED: Obama 1,492-1,338
OVERALL: Obama 1,750-1,611

- There are 264 undeclared superdelegates.
- Since the Pennsylvania primary: It's Obama +21, Clinton +11.
- Since Super Tuesday, Feb. 5: It's Obama +88, Clinton +13.
- Since Junior Super Tuesday, March 4: It's Obama +45, Clinton +20.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton went up with an ad earlier today, knocking Obama, asking, "What's happened to Barack Obama?" Obama's hitting back with one of his own, saying, "What does Hillary Clinton offer us? More of the same old negative politics. Her hometown newspaper says she's taking the low road."

Here's the script:
ANNCR: "A war that should never have been waged. An economy in turmoil. Record prices at the pump. America held hostage to foreign oil. And what does Hillary Clinton offer us? More of the same old negative politics. Her hometown newspaper says she's taking the low road -- her attacks do nothing but harm. The same old Washington politics won't fix our problems. We need honest answers... And a president we can trust.
OBAMA: "I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message."

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
HIGH POINT, N.C. -- While in North Carolina, Hillary Clinton has held rallies in high school gyms, pickup trucks and even the state's Auto Racing Hall of Fame. Her final stop before tomorrow's primary was the second held at a train station, where this afternoon she competed with a rumbling freight train to make her pitch.

"I love being in a train station; I really do," she said. "I hope someday we can actually get back to having high-speed trains going back and forth across our country."

She spoke for just over a half hour, emphasizing her view that voters should consider her specific plans before making what she called a "historic decision."

"We can't do it just by wishing for it. We can't do it just by hoping for it," she said. "Prayer helps, but hard work also is something we gotta do together. You know, I'm a Methodist, and we believe in doing all the good that you can every day that you can. And that means we come together and we set some goals and we go about achieving them."

She also stressed her plan for short-term relief on issues like the mortgage crisis and the cost of fuel.

"I believe that part of the job of a president is not just for long-term planning," she said, "which I am 100 percent in favor of, but living in the here and now to try to make it clear to American families, middle class people, hardworking folks that somebody hears you, and somebody sees you, and somebody know what's going on right here in High Point."

She took a more folksy approach, saying she has always wanted to come to this town and "go in and out of all these stores." "I'll have to come back, maybe when we get to the general election," she added.

She even spoke with the slightest hint of a drawl, as she talked about a Carolina staple.

"We have eaten barbecue from one end of this state to other," she said. "You know, for a while I was a little worried because every sighting of my husband was going into or coming out of barbecue joint. I said, 'Oh, I just hope his cardiologist doesn't read that!'"

Introducing Clinton, Gov. Mike Easley called her "strong as train smoke." But the New York senator saw trouble coming as a train approached near the end of her remarks, and decided to cut herself short rather than fight to be heard.

"That's why it's so important, that as this train goes by," she said, "we think that it's taking us into the future and we're all gonna be on it."

From NBC's Mark Murray
A smart take from Hotline: "Obama survived one critical test this weekend. No, not the Russert interview. The LA-06 special, a closely watched election where GOPers poured tons of money on ads trying to link conservative Dem Cazayoux to Obama in an attempt to nationalize the race. It didn't work out as planned. To be sure, GOPer Jenkins was a flawed candidate, making this an imperfect test of Obama's down-ballot strength. The 5/13 special in MS-01, which features a stronger GOPer, will be a better indicator. Even so, if Obama can't be used effectively as a wedge: 1) when he's at his weakest and 2) in a CD carried by Bush w/ 59%, what does this say about GOP chances to hold their open seats in more competitive districts?"