Veteran journalist Elizabeth Drew has an interesting reported op-ed in Politico today. "Notwithstanding the plentiful commentary to the effect that the Pennsylvania primary must have shaken superdelegates planning to support Barack Obama, causing them to rethink their position, key Democrats on Capitol Hill are unbudged. 'I don't think anyone's shaken,' a leading House Democrat told me. The critical mass of Democratic congressmen that has been prepared to endorse Obama when the timing seemed right remains prepared to do so. Their reasons, ones they have held for months, have not changed – and by their very nature are unlikely to."

"Essentially, they are three:
(a) Hillary Rodham Clinton is such a polarizing figure that everyone who ever considered voting Republican in November, and even many who never did, will go to the polls to vote against her, thus jeopardizing Democrats down the ticket – i.e., themselves, or, for party leaders, the sizeable majorities they hope to gain in the House and the Senate in November.
(b) To take the nomination away from Obama when he is leading in the elected delegate count would deeply alienate the black base of the Democratic Party, and, in the words of one leading Democrat, 'The superdelegates are not going to switch their voter and jeopardize the future of the Democratic Party for generations.' Such a move, he said, would also disillusion the new, mostly young, voters who have entered into politics for the first time because of Obama, and lose the votes of independents who could make the critical difference in November.
(c) Because the black vote can make the decisive difference in numerous congressional districts, discarding Obama could cost the Democrats numerous seats."

In his National Journal column, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook writes, "The good news for Hillary Rodham Clinton is that she's winning a lot of battles. The bad news is that the war is pretty much lost. Sure, she won Pennsylvania's April 22 primary by a strong 9 points in the face of being outspent on television ads by Barack Obama 2-to-1. She also won Ohio, Rhode Island, and at least the primary part of the bizarre "Texas two-step" primary-and-caucus combination on March 4.

"But today, she is 133 delegates behind Obama, 1,728 to 1,595, according to NBC News. At this point last week, she trailed by 136 delegates. Since then Clinton has scored a net gain of 10 delegates in Pennsylvania, according to NBC, but has lost a few more superdelegates, so she has made little headway. If this contest were still at the point where momentum, symbolism, and reading tea leaves mattered, Clinton would be in pretty good shape. Everything she has needed to happen is happening now. Obama is getting tougher press coverage and critical examination. He's also getting rattled a bit, and he didn't perform well in the recent debate in Philadelphia. Clinton is winning in big, important places, but it's happening about three months too late."

Per NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan, the Obama campaign has reached out to all superdelegates with a memo, arguing that Sen. Barack Obama is the strongest candidate to take on Sen. John McCain, the Republican nominee in the fall. "After 45 contests, Senator Obama has won more delegates, twice as many states and territories, and more of the popular vote. He's won in every part of the country, and has scored victories among every segment of electorate. He's inspired Democrats, Independents, and Republicans, building an unprecedented coalition of more than 1.4 million contributors. And when it comes to head-to-head match-ups versus John McCain, Obama performs better than Clinton in key states and shows the potential to put new states in play for Democrats up and down the ballot," the memo reads.

It goes on to list head to how Clinton and Obama fair in head to head match-ups against McCain, listing polls from traditional battle ground states, big states as well as potential Democratic pick ups in the fall. Some of the polls used, however, are not considered airable by NBC standards.  The intent by the Obama campaign, though, is clear -- to try and push back on the spin that recent losses in traditional battleground states leaves him vulnerable in a general election match-up against McCain.

The New York Times says Clinton "met privately on Wednesday and Thursday with uncommitted superdelegates at Democratic Party headquarters in Washington, during a rare evening and morning off the campaign trail. In the meetings, Mrs. Clinton, of New York, talked about her victory in Pennsylvania on Tuesday and her political strength among important voter groups, like women and blue-collar workers, whom the Democrats want to hold onto in the general election, her advisers said. She also talked about her fund-raising success over the last few days, after weeks when she was at a disadvantage to her Democratic opponent, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois."

INDIANA (May 6): Going for the knockout blow, Obama is spending the next two days in Indiana; he doesn't head to North Carolina again until Monday.

A couple of new polls are out today in Indiana -- both essentially showing the race a dead heat. An Indianapolis Star poll, conducted by the same pollster who regularly nails it for the Des Moines Register in Iowa (Selzer and Co.) has Obama with a narrow three-point lead, 41%-38%. Interestingly, this poll has Obama actually leading McCain in the general. "Among Hoosiers who said they would vote in the general election -- a statewide sample of voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points -- Obama beat McCain 49 percent to 41 percent. Clinton broke even with McCain, with both backed by 46 percent of those polled. And, by 49 percent to 35 percent, Democratic primary voters said Obama is the candidate best able to win in the general election."

Meanwhile, a new Research 2000 poll conducted for the South Bend Tribune has Obama up 48%-47%. A week ago, this same pollster had Clinton had by three points.

The Los Angeles Times looks at the map. "Clinton is expected to have the upper hand in factory towns like Anderson and Muncie, where blue-collar anger runs deep over the North American Free Trade Agreement and other, pending foreign trade deals. But the powerful United Auto Workers union has held off from an endorsement. Most of the state's top Democratic officials, from Sen. Evan Bayh on down, back Clinton, giving her 'the Cadillac organization on the Democratic side,' Howey said. Obama has the support of former Rep. Lee H. Hamilton, who has done a radio ad and is expected to campaign around Evansville, his former congressional base."

"Clinton's toughest challenge is farther upstate, where new registration has soared among students in college towns like Bloomington, home of Indiana University. Overall, the state's voter totals have grown by 150,000 this year, officials reported. 'Obama's played Bloomington like a violin,' said Rob Stone, an emergency room physician. 'Last summer, his people put out a table at the local farmers market, and they've been showing up every weekend.'"

"Clinton also faces surging first-time registration in black wards in Indianapolis and Gary, where Obama is counting on local leaders' backing."

To the West: Illinois, Obama's home state. To the East, Ohio, where Clinton scored a double-digit victory. "The result: Neither candidate has a clear advantage as they seek the 72 pledged delegates at stake in Indiana's primary on May 6. Polls are split, making Indiana perhaps the biggest question mark left on the primary calendar."

NORTH CAROLINA (May 6): The Washington Post looks at how a loss at NC could "shake" Clinton's claims of dominance in so-called "big" states. The CW is laid out: "North Carolina, with its large African American population, has long been seen as a firewall for Obama after contests in Ohio, Pennsylvania and elsewhere that favored Clinton. A win here and in Indiana, which also votes May 6, could cement his status as the front-runner."

"If Clinton wins in Indiana and is able to score an upset, or even lose by a small margin, in North Carolina, her comeback would probably gain fresh momentum. A lopsided Clinton loss would essentially negate any recent gains she has made in delegates, in the nationwide popular vote and in persuading superdelegates to support her."

Raleigh News & Observer's Christensen covers Clinton's day in North Carolina yesterday. "Clinton returned to North Carolina on Thursday, reaching out to more moderate Democratic voters with a display of military brass, mentions of her Methodism and promises to end the Iraq war 'responsibly.' Hoping to build on her victory this week in Pennsylvania, Clinton sought to connect with the traditional values of rural, working-class people. She was accompanied by eight retired generals -- including Hugh Shelton, the former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff under President Clinton -- as she courted voters living near military bases in and in the mountains."

The Wall Street Journal writes on Clinton's efforts in North Carolina and notes: "Clinton wants to avoid the kind of blowout loss to Sen. Barack Obama she suffered in South Carolina in January. She is trying to demonstrate the breadth of her support to Democratic elected officials and other superdelegates who will sway the decision on the party's nomination. North Carolina has a large population of the economically hard-hit rural white voters among whom Sen. Clinton has fared well in recent contests. Thursday, Sen. Clinton held rallies in Fayetteville and Asheville. She is expected to visit a fire station in Jacksonville on Friday."

It looks like this NC GOP ad may never air. While the party claims it will, they've delayed the debut of it another week and a couple of major TV stations in the state have already said they wouldn't air it.

OREGON (May 20): Bill Clinton is spending tonight and tomorrow in Oregon. Interestingly, he makes just one brief stop in Portland, while the rest of his stops are in smaller Oregon towns.

In what appears to be a response to the New York Times' editorial on Wednesday that accused the Clinton campaign of taking the "low road," campaign chief strategist http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/24/AR2008042402976_pf.html">Geoff Garin has a Washington Post op-ed defending the campaign's tactics. "Our campaign runs a TV ad Monday saying that the presidency is the toughest job in the world and giving examples of challenges presidents have faced and challenges the next president will face -- including terrorism, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, mounting economic dislocation, and soaring gas prices. The ad makes no reference -- verbal, visual or otherwise -- to our opponent; it simply asks voters to think about who they believe is best able to stand the heat. And we are accused, by some in the media, of running a fear-mongering, negative ad."

"The day before this ad went on the air, David Axelrod, Barack Obama's chief strategist, appeared with me on 'Meet the Press.' He was asked whether Hillary Clinton would bring 'the changes necessary' to Washington, and his answer was 'no.' This was in keeping with the direct, personal character attacks that the Obama campaign has leveled against Clinton from the beginning of this race -- including mailings in Pennsylvania that describe her as 'the master of a broken system.'"

"So let me get this straight. On the one hand, it's perfectly decent for Obama to argue that only he has the virtue to bring change to Washington and that Clinton lacks the character and the commitment to do so. On the other hand, we are somehow hitting below the belt when we say that Clinton is the candidate best able to withstand the pressures of the presidency and do what's right for the American people, while leaving the decisions about Obama's preparedness to the voters. Who made up those rules? And who would ever think they are fair?"

More: "The bottom line is that one campaign really has engaged in a mean-spirited, unfair character attack on the other candidate -- but it has been Obama's campaign, not ours. You would be hard-pressed to find significant analogues from our candidate, our senior campaign officials or our advertising to the direct personal statements that the Obama campaign has made about Clinton."

The New York Daily News on Clinton's $10 million haul: "Maybe now Hillary Clinton can afford to pay her bills." 
 
Speaking of that debt… "Hillary Clinton's campaign debt at the end of March was bigger than it appeared because she didn't list the $5 million she loaned herself, a campaign finance watchdog group" (the Center for Responsive Politics) reported yesterday afternoon. "Clinton, in her filing with the Federal Election Commission, reported that her campaign had $9 million in cash on hand as of March 30, and $10 million in debts." But, "Including the loan would put her debt as of March 30 at $15.3 million, the nonpartisan group said."

The AP's Ross writes on Bill Clinton's troubles with black Dems. "He is a figurative black man watching an actual black man soak in all the love that black voters used to save for him. Suddenly, he looks oh so white."

"The former president's love affair with black America hasn't soured to the point that he'll be chased out of his office in Harlem. But black people might revoke Clinton's honorary brother card if, out of his pain, he keeps hating on Obama. He's treating the Illinois senator like an unworthy heir to his racial legacy. At first, Clinton's slips of the lip about black voting habits and the like could be chalked up to election-year politics."

MCCAIN: Born-again tax-cutter
"Without naming Obama, McCain said those who would meet with a leader like Kim 'should explain to the American people how talking unconditionally to dictators like Kim Jong-il in the aftermath of recent disclosures advances American interests,'" Reuters reports.

The Washington Post examines McCain's evolution on tax policy from someone who picked fiscal discipline over tax cuts to a simple tax-cutter now. "To supporters, McCain has simply seen the light and now understands the power that business tax relief has to spur economic growth and innovation. Said J.D. Foster, a former Bush White House and Treasury tax policy expert, now at the Heritage Foundation: 'It's logical that he wouldn't be repeating the arguments he made then. We all learn from experience.'"

VIDEO: Republican U.S. presidential candidate John McCain talks with TODAY's Meredith Vieira about his trip to New Orleans and his run for president.

"To critics, it is political pandering. 'It's just part of the new John McCain that's taking on the conventional wisdom that in tight races, you have to energize the base and win by 50.000001 percent,' Chafee said. 'I was frankly surprised that he's kept it up after securing the nomination. I thought he'd move to the center, and I haven't seen it.'"

CBN's Brody looks at the McCain campaign's efforts at faith outreach. Per RNC deputy chair Frank Donatelli, "We are going to have a very aggressive program to reach out to religious voters whether they are Evangelical, Protestant, Catholic or whatever. That is a staple of our campaign because what we find is that the most religious voters certainly in terms of Church attendance tend to vote Republican more than the general public. There are a lot of voters there for us. The senator's team has been meeting with these (pro-family) groups. He has conducted some meetings and he'll continue to have such meetings. I think the test here is what we are saying in terms of issues. The issues that are of concern to religious voters namely winning the war on terror and appointing and supporting judges to the federal bench that will interpret the Constitution and not make social policy, those are bedrock issues as far as Senator McCain is concerned. I believe that as the campaign goes on this will become more and more evident. We've got plenty of time here, lots of time for meetings and interaction and I just believe that as we go forward that the groups you're talking about will become more and more comfortable with our campaign."

Brody concludes: "When you combine McCain's lack of appetite to engage on social issues with the fact that he's the guy who pushed campaign finance reform (reviled by pro-family groups) and is against a federal marriage amendment plus he doesn't really want to open up about his faith (run on sentence alert), the RNC and the McCain camp would be very wise to be overly aggressive courting the Evangelical base. Of course they can't pander either or they'll be slammed by moderates. Tough job. I'm glad I'm just a blogger posting articles in my basement with my pajamas on."

McCain lost more than a quarter of the vote in Pennsylvania. Is it a sign of trouble? Not necessarily. "The support for other candidates could be seen as a protest vote against McCain, who is trying to unite the Republican Party behind him. But the lack of unanimity is not atypical. In 2000, the last contested Republican presidential race, competitors were still winning sizable shares of the vote well after George W. Bush had secured the nomination and McCain withdrew in March of that year. The next month in Pennsylvania, Bush won 72 percent of the vote to McCain's 22 percent."

Noting a critical Krugman column on Obama is like alerting folks of another plane landing safely at National. Yet despite the predictability of Krugman criticizing Obama, he makes an important point. "After Barack Obama's defeat in Pennsylvania, David Axelrod, his campaign manager, brushed it off: 'Nothing has changed tonight in the basic physics of this race.' He may well be right -- but what a comedown. A few months ago the Obama campaign was talking about transcendence. Now it's talking about math. 'Yes we can' has become 'No she can't.'"

The Los Angeles Times takes a look at the slow trickle of GOP made TV and radio ads that are critical of Obama. "The flurry of attacks underscores how Republicans and their allies are sensing opportunity in the increasingly battered image of Obama, whom many Democrats have viewed as their best hope for appealing across ideological lines and helping their party win in conservative areas. The ads also are playing into a debate among Democratic officials about Obama's electability in November, a discussion that gained urgency after his 9-percentage-point loss to Hillary Rodham Clinton in this week's Pennsylvania primary. That contest provided more evidence that the Illinois senator has had trouble winning over seniors and working-class white voters, who are seen as important to a Democratic victory this fall." 

National Journal's Victor writes a feature story about whether Obama can take a punch. "'I don't think we know yet whether he can take a punch," observed Ferrel Guillory, director of the Program on Public Life at the University of North Carolina (Chapel Hill). Guillory, a former reporter who has written extensively about politics, added, 'I think that is what is making a lot of Democrats nervous." More: "'McCain won't do it, but the Republican satellite groups will put Reverend Wright on television,' Shrum said. 'I think it is a lot like the Bill Clinton draft records in 1992. It came out and it hurt him some in the primaries, along with the other stuff, but by the time of the general election … people just dismissed it and said this election is about my job, about health care, and a whole set of other issues.'"

The AP questions the narrative that Obama's not tough enough. "Obama came out on top [in his first legislative contest] in that confrontation but not through a head-to-head vote. Instead, he capitalized on his opponent's mistakes to get her thrown off the ballot so that his name was the only choice presented to voters. His willingness to knock his opponent off the ballot, say Illinois political insiders, was an early demonstration of the tenacity that has helped him in the primary process against Clinton thus far." As this Democratic nomination comes down to a fight over rules, it may not be Clinton that has all the tricks up her sleeve.

Politico's Harris and Kuhn note Obama's dealing with two punctuation marks right now: a question mark (about his vulnerabilities) and an asterisk (on how he wins the nomination math-wise). "This is the significance of Indiana. Obama can and probably will win the Democratic nomination no matter what happens in the May 6 primary. But a victory in the Hoosier state is critical to Obama gaining at least some of the political and psychic momentum that ordinarily flow to a nomination winner. A loss -- on top of a succession of losses in Pennsylvania, Ohio and other big states -- would mean the nominee would enter the general election defined to an unusual degree by his vulnerabilities."

How is the Rev. Wright interview getting played out? The New York Post: "O's race talk is just politics: Wright." 
 
"Barack Obama's biggest headache is back. His lightning-rod former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, is poised to reignite one of the most damaging controversies for the presidential candidate by jumping into the spotlight with a PBS interview Friday night and a Washington speech next week." 
 
Is this the most devastating part of what Wright said in his interview? "Obama, in a widely praised speech on race and politics last month, denounced the controversial remarks but said he could not denounce Wright, instead describing the historical reasons for his spiritual mentor's anger. Asked about that speech, Wright replied, 'He's a politician, I'm a pastor. I do what I do. He does what politicians do.'"

From NBC's Ken Strickland
The Senate Ethics Committee today issued GOP Sen. Pete Domenici of New Mexico a "public letter of qualified admonition" for his involvement in the Justice Department's firing of several US Attorneys last year. It was a scandal that helped lead to the resignation of former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales.

In March of 2007, former US Attorney David Iglesias testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee that Domenici had called him at home asking about an ongoing investigation of Democrats in the senator's home state of New Mexico. Iglesias said Domenici wanted to know the timing of indictments. 

According to the transcript from the hearing, the US Attorney said the senator asked, "'Are these going to be filed before November?' And I said I didn't think so, to which [Domenici] replied, 'I'm very sorry to hear that.'" Iglesias then said, "the line went dead."

Domenici later apologized for the call, but said he did not pressure Iglesias to move on the case. The 75-year-old senator has since announced his retirement saying he was diagnosed with a dementia type brain ailment. 
 
The committee said it "finds no substantial evidence to determine that you attempted to improperly influence an ongoing investigation." But it did find that Domenici should have known his actions "created an appearance of impropriety that reflected unfavorable on the Senate."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
WRAL-TV tells the Raleigh News & Observer it has rejected the North Carolina Republican Party's Rev. Jeremiah Wright ad, linking Obama, Wright and, by extension, Democratic gubernatorial candidates Beverly Perdue and Richard Moore, who have endorsed Obama.

"A spokesman for another Triangle station, WTVD, said it had not been asked to air the ad but would have reservations about doing so," the News & Observer writes.

McCain and the Republican National Committee have asked the NC GOP not to air the ad.

From NBC's Shawna Thomas
Nancy Pelosi will be on Larry King Live tonight. CNN previewed a clip in which the House Speaker says a so-called Obama-Clinton Dream Ticket is not a good idea.

LARRY KING:  If you had your power woud you want them to run together?

PELOSI: No

LARRY KING: No?

PELOSI: I don't think it's a good idea.

LARRY KING:  Not a good idea?

PELOSI: No I don't think so.

LARRY KING: Because?

PELOSI: I think that first of all the candidate, whoever he or she may be, should choose his or her own vice presidential candidate. I think that's appropriate.  That's where you would see the comfort level not only how to run but how to govern the country. And there's plenty of talent to go aroud to draw upon for a good strong ticket. I'm not one of those who thinks that that's a good ticket.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Check out the following excerpts from this Detroit News editorial on the Clinton camp's push for those Michigan delegates:

There is no deal yet to seat the delegation. But the Clinton camp is working overtime to ensure the elected slate is sent. Keep in mind that Clinton won 55 percent to uncommitted's 40 percent since Obama wasn't on the ballot. He has pushed for a 50-50 percent delegate split, but that proposal hasn't gained traction.

It's becoming apparent that Obama should have consented to a revote here. He certainly wouldn't have lost by 15 percentage points or more; polls have pegged the pair in a dead heat. But Obama seemed spooked that Clintonites put forth the plan and the money, so he quashed the do-over last month.

Now Obama is paying the price in delegates, starting with the Michigan Democratic Party's 15 district conventions on Saturday. The Clinton battle plan was flawlessly executed with an eye toward a contested convention. Their delegate roster is crammed with big names like former Gov. Jim Blanchard and Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. 'We wanted to pick people who would be loyal to Hillary, who would commit to her through multiple ballots,' Blanchard says.

Michiganders for Obama, a ragtag group of new volunteers, triumphed in turnout Saturday but were steamrolled by the Clinton machine. Obama has proved to be a master of organization, but he made a tactical error not to plump up his skeletal apparatus in Michigan.

More: Given her narrow path to the nomination, Clinton and her aides have argued that pledged delegates are fair game to flip. Although they've since backed away from such statements, the Michigan delegate conventions show the Clinton delegate strategy is being set into motion. What this could mean is four very interesting days in Denver. Although the odds still favor Obama -- who leads in delegates, the popular vote and states won -- he has to be a bit rattled over two losses in one week. If Clinton comes out on top in a floor war, we might well look back at the Michigan mêlée as the turning point.

From NBC's Ron Allen
We are about to take off for North Carolina after a quiet morning with no events and a lot of sunshine. Several retired "flag officers" are aboard "Hill Force One." One theme of the day is Sen. Clinton's concern about veteran's families and their economic concerns. And, of course, that she's ready on Day One to be Commander-In-Chief.

North Carolina is, of course, a big military state. Gen. Hugh Shelton, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff will appear with Clinton today.

And if you happened to see Clinton around the Senate this morning, she was there to vote on a bill that would extend veteran's benefits to Filipinos who fought with US troops in World War II. Not sure of the bill's fate or the number of survivors affected, (I do wonder how many if anyone knows?) or what Sens. McCain and Obama's positions are on the bill.

From NBC's Mark Murray
By now, you've probably heard it a 100 times. Obama has a problem with working-class voters. Clinton fares poorly among African Americans -- younger Democrats, too. And these disadvantages will be big problems for either candidate, if they become the nominee.

Indeed, after 45 Democratic contests, a familiar pattern has emerged from exit polls: Clinton performs well among women, seniors, and low-income whites; Obama wins blacks, higher-income folks, young people, and independents. And pundits, campaign operatives, and superdelegates are now poring over these numbers as if they are a political crystal ball that will tell us the future about the general election.

But has this analysis gotten a bit out of hand? Consider what the exit polls told us about McCain. In South Carolina, Huckabee beat him by wide margins among weekly church-goers and born-again Christians, and Huck even beat him among those without college degrees. In Virginia -- even after McCain became the presumptive GOP nominee -- the Arizona senator once again lost decisively among weekly church-goers, evangelicals, and those without college degrees, and he also lost among those making less than $100,000. What's more, in this week's Pennsylvania GOP contest, more than a quarter of the vote went to Huckabee and Paul, not McCain.

While McCain is unlikely to do as well among evangelicals as Bush did, does anyone think that his performance with this group is a big general-election problem for him? Probably not. Is he doomed among voters without college degrees? Unlikely. Will he be unable to get a quarter of the GOP vote in November? Forget about it.

No doubt that exit polls are useful at analyzing particular races. Without them, we wouldn't have known how well Clinton performed in Pennsylvania among white women and the suburbs, which were important keys to her win.

But extrapolating their findings to tell us something about another election -- with different candidates and different voters -- is a dubious exercise. 

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
NEW ORLEANS -- On the government's response to Hurricane Katrina, McCain said, "Never again. Never again will a disaster of this nature be handled in the terrible and disgraceful way that it was handled."

When he was asked if it was fair to say that the failure of leadership extended all the way to the Oval Office, McCain said yes. But he added that he places "some of those responsibilities on the Congress of the United States, which funded pork barrel projects that were not only not needed and certainly not as important as some of the projects that were needed here."

He also said corporations should be asked to handle more of the response to a future disaster.

McCain then went further in his diatribe against earmarks and wasteful spending.

"I have never voted for a single earmark or pork barrel project," McCain said. "Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton have voted for hundreds of millions, hundreds of millions of pork barrel projects and earmarks and wasteful spending. They're part of the problem. I'm part of the answer."

While it is true that McCain has never sponsored an earmark -- by the strict definition of the word -- he has certainly voted for bills with earmarks, including some of the specific projects he criticizes most vocally on the campaign trail.

The campaign's four-block tour of the Lower Ninth Ward this morning quickly turned to confusion for McCain and the traveling media. Surrounded by at least 20 National Guardsmen, McCain walked with Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal down Caffen Street, past Fats Domino's house and concluded his tour at St. David's Catholic Church. But while McCain walked, members of traveling press led the way in two flatbed army trucks, stopping and starting while trying to listen in on the brief conversations McCain had with voters along the way.

At times the trucks picked up speed and left the senator behind, causing members of the press to scream, "Stop." At other times, the candidate would catch up with the press, walking between the two trucks while McCain's traveling press secretary yelled at the uniformed drivers to speed up and get ahead of the tour. 

The press conference that greeted the senator at the end of his tour -- where McCain made the comments on Bush, earmarks and corporations -- was also a cause for confusion. Several local residents complained there were no seats for hurricane survivors outside the church and no time carved out in McCain's schedule for meetings with Ninth Ward residents. McCain tried to calm some of his detractors in the crowd with some of his patented "straight talk" on the government's failures to respond effectively after Katrina and Rita.

From NBC's AnaMaria Arumi
In the primaries (not caucuses, and excluding Michigan and Florida) so far this year, Clinton's lead among White voters with Household Incomes of less than $50,000 was in the middle of the pack of the states where she had an advantage over Obama. There are nine where she bested Obama by a bigger margin than in Pennsylvania and 13 where she won by narrower margins.

She had her greatest advantage in Arkansas (65 percentage points) and her narrowest advantage in New Mexico (2 points).

Obama had an advantage among whites who make less than $50,000 in Wisconsin, Illinois, Utah and Vermont.

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
North Carolina GOP chairwoman Linda Daves just said on MSNBC that the state party's TV ad -- linking Obama with Rev. Wright -- won't be airing until NEXT WEEK...

To us, this seems to be even more evidence that the ad is -- and has always been -- a publicity stunt to raise money.

From NBC's Christina Jamison
The Clinton campaign announced today on its press bus it hit its $10 million mark in 24 hours goal. Spokesman Mo  Elleithee said they had 100,000 donors, 80,000 of them new, and the average contribution was about $100.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Oregon Rep. David Wu is throwing his support to Obama. Oregon has 12 superdelegates -- four of which are now committed, evenly split 2-2 among Clinton and Obama.

Willamette Week writes: "Wu also kept the window open -- by the smallest of cracks -- to changing his mind, saying in response to a question that he'd obviously think about his decision if Clinton were to win his congressional district by 25 percentage points. 'But I don't think that's going to happen,' he said."

The superdelegate count is now Clinton 263-240.
Obama leads by 134 delegates overall: 1,731-1,597.
He also leads by 157 in the pledged count: 1,491-1,334.

There are 292 superdelegates still to be had (229 of those are named; there are 63 vacancies/add-ons.)

*** UPDATE *** NBC News has allocated one more Pennsylvania delegate. The Pennsylvania pledged count is now Clinton 83-73 with two still unallocated. The above numbers are adjusted.

From NBC's Lindsey Pritzlaff
Can the sale trend of women's thongs provide clues about who might be the next president?

Users of CafePress.com have generated tens of thousands of creative election-themed products. And it's not just the bumper stickers and buttons anymore. This year's candidate paraphernalia crosses the entire spectrum -- from beer steins and Hillary baby bibs to a woman's thong featuring Obama's face and reading "OHHHH-BAMA!"

McCain even gets some CafePress attention -- "Join the McSurgency! John McCain 2008," is printed on a white cotton t-shirt.

According to CafePress, of the three candidates, Obama has the highest product approval rating in the CafePress Marketplace with 95% of Obama paraphernalia being pro-Obama and 5% anti-Obama. McCain merchandise runs a close second -- 92% pro-McCain and 8% anti-McCain. And Hillary's products are 73% pro-Clinton and 27% anti-Clinton.

CafePress reports that in the Thong Primary, Obama leads Clinton 57%-43%. But Clinton dominates the Beer Primary, leading in the sale of Clinton beer steins.

The CafePress Web site, launched in 1999, has added a new feature -- the CafePress Meter, an interactive candidate tracker tool. Any site visitor can use it to see if sales match current momentum in the race.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Check out these comments by PA undecided superdelegates Reps. Jason Altmire and Mike Doyle.

Altmire said that despite Clinton's win, he's remaining undecided until after the primaries are finished. "It doesn't change my thinking," he told the Beaver County Times. "After the June 3 primaries, I'll have all the results in front of me and all the information and be informed as to how I will use my superdelegate vote."

Altmire's district (CD-4) went overwhelmingly for Clinton, about 66%-34%, the paper finds. And Altmire appeared last weekend with Bill Clinton. But… "I really have tried to be thoughtful and get to know the candidates," he said. "I really am trying to be evenhanded in the whole thing."

"On Wednesday, Altmire said he's 'willing to give Sen. Clinton the opportunity to finish the next nine primaries' before giving his support. However, if Obama is still leading in the popular vote and delegate count after the final primary, Altmire said, 'It's going to be difficult for me to just go the other way.'"

Doyle echoed that, but said he may make his decision sooner -- after the early primaries in May -- though he's content to also wait until after all the primaries are over in June as well.

Towns in Doyle's district, CD-14, (Coraopolis, Kennedy Township and Robinson Township) went for Obama by about 7,000-plus votes. "If Clinton tightens the race in the coming primaries then she deserves to continue, Doyle said. 'I'm willing to give her the chance to do that as long as she's making progress,' he said." But…"[I]f Clinton falls further behind Obama in the popular vote and delegate count, Doyle said his decision would be easier.

"'I'm not denying that man the nomination if he's got the popular vote and the delegate count,' Doyle said."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** All about North Carolina? So which May 6 state is more important to Clinton -- Indiana or North Carolina? Sure, many in the media (and in the Clinton campaign) are pointing to Indiana, because the race is likely to be very close. But isn't North Carolina the opportunity for Clinton to either prove or disprove momentum? The state isn't just a pothole for Clinton in her comeback bid, it's a potential sinkhole. It's a big state, not some small red state. And the gains Clinton made in the popular vote, thanks to Pennsylvania, could be wiped away completely in the Tar Heel State. And because the popular vote is now the most important measuring stick to the Clinton campaign, they have to figure out a way to either pull the upset or make the Obama victory margin so close that it will serve as a wakeup call to the superdelegates. It's been said a bunch of times, but we'll say it again: Obama can't seem to convince Clinton to get out until he beats her in a place that demographically favors her, and she can't convince superdelegates that he's really unelectable unless she beats him in a place that demographically favors him. And since the burden still remains with Clinton to catch up, it may mean North Carolina is actually more make-or-break than Indiana.

VIDEO: NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd discusses the importance of North Carolina to Hillary Clinton and the different ways to calculate the popular vote in the Democratic race.

*** I've got friends in high places: After 45 contests, this pattern has emerged in the Clinton-Obama race: The person who has received the best political endorsements in a state has ended up winning that contest. Ed Rendell and Michael Nutter were HUGE for Clinton in Pennsylvania, especially in keeping down Obama's margins in Philly. So was Ted Strickland for Clinton in Ohio. Meanwhile, Obama got big help from Claire McCaskill in Missouri and Tim Kaine in Virginia. There are a few exceptions, of course -- Clinton lost Maryland (where she had the support from Gov. Martin O'Malley and Sen. Barbara Mikulski), and Obama lost Massachusetts (Ted Kennedy and Deval Patrick) and Arizona (Janet Napolitano). But that's about it. What does this tell us for the upcoming May 6 contests? It looks like Clinton might have the advantage with supporters like Evan Bayh and former Gov. Joe Kernan, as well as the chairman of the state party. And Obama seems to have the clear advantage in North Carolina, where almost every notable state politico who has endorsed is backing him.

*** In search of a validator: Speaking of endorsements, it seems that Clinton is in need of a endorsement from a top Democrat as evidence that the tide -- as she and her campaign are arguing -- is really turning. She needs the equivalent of what Ted Kennedy and the Kennedy clan did for Obama after South Carolina. Who's potentially out there? Al Gore. John Edwards. Nancy Pelosi. Jim Webb. Even someone like Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer or Elizabeth Edwards. Murtha was a good get for Clinton a few weeks ago, and now she needs someone else to jump aboard the Clinton Express to suggest to superdelegates and the press that the momentum is on her side. For now, the only "progress" Clinton's made with her recent success is simply slowing the superdelegate trickle to Obama's side. She needs to show the public and the supers that others actually believe she can win -- not just survive until the end of the primary calendar.

*** That front-loaded calendar: Here's a thought that hasn't gotten much play, but might be the single biggest reason why Obama has clinched yet: The frontloading gave Clinton an early safety net. How much better would Obama have performed in many of those Super Tuesday states had the contests been held later? Writes the LA Times' Skelton: "Californians can be thankful the state held its presidential primary on the earliest day legally possible. And Hillary Rodham Clinton should be especially grateful. Clinton probably wouldn't even be in the race today if California had not rescued her candidacy way back on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5, by delivering a timely victory that helped keep her afloat. The Pennsylvania primary Tuesday likely would have been irrelevant." This is a moot point now -- the calendar is the calendar. But it's a reminder of just how important Feb. 5 was to Clinton and how damaging it was to her when she couldn't clinch it by then. For now, this is simply something for historians to ponder.

*** A Big Easy? McCain's tour today takes him to New Orleans, where he will make a stop in the Ninth Ward and hold a media avail there. Afterwards, he holds a town hall in the city and then heads to Baton Rouge, where he will raise money and attend a business banquet. As much as Iraq has hurt President Bush's poll numbers and the GOP's brand, Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath broke their backs and helped contribute the Democrats' midterm election sweep. Can McCain's visit there begin to repair the political damage? Meanwhile, the Louisiana Democratic Party will be holding a news conference in New Orleans, where they will argue that McCain voted against measures to boost reconstruction aid and also remind reporters that McCain endorser John Hagee said that Katrina was God's punishment to New Orleans sinners. 
 
*** Numbers, numbers, numbers: Obama picked up two superdelegates to Clinton's one yesterday, bringing Clinton's advantage to 263-239. A new addition: the uncommitteds. There are 293 superdelegates still to be had (230 of those are named; there are 63 vacancies/add-ons.) Obama leads by 133 delegates overall: 1,729-1,596. He also leads by 157 in the pledged count: 1,490-1,333. The Pennsylvania pledged count (as of 6:15 pm Wednesday) was Clinton 82-73, with three delegates still to be allocated.

*** On the trail: Elsewhere, Clinton campaigns in North Carolina, hitting Jacksonville, Fayetteville, and Asheville; Obama is down in Chicago; and Chelsea Clinton stumps in Indiana.

Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 12 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 194 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 271 days
 
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The Wall Street Journal reports on the Clinton campaign's effort to convince undecided members of Congress that this isn't over. "The Clinton campaign was trying to overturn the sense of Sen. Obama's inevitability. Fifteen Democratic members of Congress assembled at Sen. Clinton's northern Virginia headquarters early Wednesday to strategize with staffers about courting the several hundred uncommitted superdelegates. One adviser said Tennessee Rep. John Tanner, a leader among House Democratic conservatives, had called last week. 'He said, "If she wins Pennsylvania, I'm with you."' Later in the day, Sen. Clinton's campaign announced Rep. Tanner's endorsement.

"The Clinton campaign is renewing its fight to claim disputed votes from Florida and Michigan primaries, but that may anger the very superdelegates the campaign needs."

The LA Times: "Clinton's Pennsylvania win has bought her time -- but not much -- to make her case to the Democratic Party's superdelegates, many of whom expressed a strong desire Wednesday to end the nominating contest once the final votes are cast. Though few seem eager to use their power to call a halt to the presidential race -- and many said they welcomed the continued balloting -- a number of party leaders and other activists sent a clear signal that they want the fight over well before the Democratic convention in August."

The paper interviewed a bunch of uncommitted supers for this story. This comment from the Idaho Dem Chair sums things up pretty well: "I'm not buying the Clinton argument that Sen. Obama is unelectable, but I certainly intend to continue to watch his performance to make my own determination of just how strong a candidate he will be," said R. Keith Roark, chairman of the Idaho Democratic Party.

The New York Post reports, "Trying to capitalize on her Pennsylvania victory, Hillary Rodham Clinton moved quickly to win over superdelegates yesterday by dispatching a top adviser to Congress armed with special, national electoral maps highlighting her advantages over Barack Obama. Clinton's campaign also insisted that she's now the leader in the overall Democratic popular vote."
 
"Clinton adviser Harold Ickes, who is in charge of superdelegates for the campaign, arrived at the meeting with a group of congressional supporters and superdelegates armed with two pages of maps titled, 'Obama's Red State Myth.' It showed the states Obama has won and the states Clinton has won, giving her victories in battlegrounds with more Electoral College votes - 284 to his 202. That includes her controversial wins in Florida and Michigan." The Obama camp said, "The latest Clinton spin is as contorted as their path to the nomination."

The New York Times looks at the electability argument the two campaigns are making and seems to find validity in both. "Clinton says her popularity among blue-collar workers, women and Hispanics makes her the candidate to beat Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, in the swing states that decide presidential races. Along with Ohio and Pennsylvania, she also cites her success in Michigan and Florida — even though the Democratic Party disqualified those contests, and Mr. Obama was not on the Michigan ballot — to claim an edge in crucial battlegrounds."

Yet for all of her primary night celebrations in the populous states, exit polling and independent political analysts offer evidence that Mr. Obama could do just as well as Mrs. Clinton among blocs of voters with whom he now runs behind. Obama advisers say he also appears well-positioned to win swing states and believe he would have a strong shot at winning traditional Republican states like Virginia."

NBC/WSJ Dem pollster Peter Hart puts it well: "Hillary goes deeper and stronger in the Democratic base than Obama, but her challenge is that she doesn't go as wide," Mr. Hart said. "Obama goes much further reaching into the independent and Republican vote, and has a greater chance of creating a new electoral map for the Democrats."

The Washington Post talks to party leaders and finds them resigned to the primary season going through June 3, but optimistic they'll rally quickly after that. "Tuesday's results, while not unexpected, set off another intraparty debate over the state of the race. Strategist Tad Devine, who played top roles in the past two Democratic presidential campaigns, called Clinton's Pennsylvania victory 'impressive' and added, 'I never thought it was over, but now I think she has more of a chance than she did two weeks ago.'"

"Rep. Artur Davis (Ala.), an Obama supporter, echoed the Obama campaign's analysis of the impact of Pennsylvania. 'I don't think the race has fundamentally changed,' he said. 'He still has a notable lead in delegates, the popular vote, national polling and the money race.'" 

The AP's Pickler writes, "There are a couple other problems for Clinton in claiming the lead in the popular vote. Even using her criteria of counting Michigan and Florida, her lead may not last more than two weeks. That's because Obama is heavily favored to win the largest state left to vote, North Carolina, on May 6. Obama also is likely to win South Dakota and Oregon. Even if Clinton won all the other contests left -- Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Montana, Puerto Rico and Guam -- they are smaller contests that will make it difficult for her to catch back up." 
 
The AP: "A top supporter of Hillary Rodham Clinton has filed a challenge with the Democratic National Committee to try to seat Michigan's pledged delegates -- most of them likely to support the New York senator -- at the national convention in Denver. Under DNC member Joel Ferguson's proposal, Michigan would send its 28 unpledged superdelegates and 128 pledged delegates to Denver despite being stripped of delegates for holding its primary too early. Florida was similarly punished for its early primary. Ferguson said it would be fair punishment to give each pledged delegate only half a vote for breaking DNC rules. He said superdelegates -- of which he is one -- should get a full vote."

INDIANA: The Politico's Martin writes that Indiana is an even-steven race between Clinton and Obama. "With a demographic landscape that's well-suited to both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, Indiana is shaping up to be the most consequential battleground of the remaining states… Obama and Clinton have traded the lead in Indiana polls, but there have been few reliable local surveys to date. One thing seems certain: Unlike Pennsylvania, where Clinton began with a pronounced advantage, Indiana is a state where both begin on an equal footing."

The Wall Street Journal runs a similar piece. If it wasn't for the fact that Obama came from a neighboring state, Clinton would likely be favored to win by double-digits. But unlike Ohio and Pennsylvania, Obama starts on a more level playing field thanks to the Chicago media market bleed into Northwest Indiana.

Does Indiana shy away from change candidates? The New York Times suggests so. "With all the talk among the Democratic presidential hopefuls about change, they may wish to consider this as they wander Indiana: People here practically revolted a few years ago when their governor, Mitch Daniels, pushed to change to daylight saving time like most of the country. Change, it seems, may not carry quite the same political magic in this state as it has elsewhere."

Remember, Indiana is a TOTALLY open primary so Republicans can vote... The Indy Star looks at the crossovers and wonders how many are coming over to support a candidate. "Some Republicans, however, may be doing it to manipulate the election, supporting the Democrat they believe will be easiest for Sen. John McCain to beat in November. Whether the mutiny is minor or truly significant won't be known until the general election, but it was hard not to run into a Republican at the Obama event in Columbus.

NORTH CAROLINA: The Los Angeles Times covers McCain's denouncement of the NC GOP ad that attacks the Dem gubernatorial candidates in that state using footage of Rev. Wright. "'I don't know why they do it, and obviously I don't control them. But I'm making it very clear, as I have a couple of times in the past, that there's no place for that kind of campaigning -- and the American people don't want it, period,' McCain said."

"McCain said he had not seen the North Carolina ad, which states that Obama is too extreme and shows footage of the Illinois senator's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., shouting: 'Not God bless America, God damn America.' In a March speech on race, Obama condemned Wright's controversial remarks, but said the pastor was part of his life and that he could not disown him. 'I hope that I don't see [it],' McCain said of the ad. 'I had enough of a description of it to know that that's the kind of campaigning that I have told the American people we're not going to do.'"

"Aides to McCain said campaign manager Rick Davis called the North Carolina Republican chairman Tuesday and left a long message urging the state party not to run the ad. The campaign also recruited North Carolina Sen. Richard M. Burr, a McCain supporter, to make the same request -- but the effort was apparently unsuccessful."

So how much airtime will this NC GOP ad receive? "UNC-Charlotte political scientist Ted Arrington said it's telling that the ad begins with a fundraising appeal. 'The only reasonable effect of this kind of an ad now ... is to raise money, and of course to let the party faithful know that you're alive and kicking,' he said. Arrington doubted that the ad would sway voters, given the degrees of separation between Wright and the Democratic gubernatorial candidates. But he said it could raise money for N.C. Republicans, who are perennially strapped for cash."

The Clinton campaign said it raised $3.5 million by 10:30 a.m. Wednesday and claimed to be on track to raise $10 million in 24 hours. The campaign called it "our best fundraising night ever."

The LA Times looks at McCain's poverty tour. "McCain (R-Ariz.) tried to position himself somewhere between Johnson and Reagan while campaigning here Wednesday, styling himself as a compassionate conservative but emphasizing his crusade against 'wasteful' government spending. 'I wouldn't be back here today if government had fulfilled the promises that Lyndon Johnson made 44 years ago,' McCain told reporters as his campaign bus rolled through the green hills of eastern Kentucky. 'The moral of the story is -- government isn't always the answer.'"

More: "A centerpiece of McCain's speech was an economic initiative that would give tax write-offs to companies that offered high-speed Internet access to low-income people. In towns where businesses won't offer that aid, he said, the government would make government-backed loans or low-interest bonds available. Otherwise, the third day of McCain's tour of America's 'forgotten places' seemed largely symbolic. When a reporter asked what could be done about healthcare coverage in Appalachia, as well as the high rates of diabetes, obesity and cancer, McCain said his administration would emphasize 'wellness and fitness.'"

The Washington Post looks at the tour and notes: "McCain is reaching out to voters in these Democratic strongholds to try to build the broad, center-right coalition that aides believe is necessary for him to become president. Advisers do not think Republicans alone can elect McCain, given how many have become disenchanted with President Bush and his policies.  McCain's "Time for Action" tour is less about specific proposals; those will come later, advisers said. The important part, they said, is for McCain to lay the groundwork in places such as Inez to credibly claim that he cares about the people who live on the edge of the modern economy. In effect, McCain is launching Version 2.0 of Bush's 'compassionate conservative' campaign."

Here's a story that has to make the McCain camp feel good; they've driven a tiny wedge between the candidates over his gas tax holiday. Obama's against it on fiscal terms; Clinton's open to the idea.

Who else read between the lines of the Rick Davis campaign strategy memo and saw all the pro-Clinton/anti-Obama stuff and wondered who the campaign was preparing to run against? A sample of Davis' bullet points:
-- Exit polls reveal why this poses significant problems for Obama if he becomes the nominee.
-- The cracks in Obama's Democratic coalition in Pennsylvania mirror what we saw in Ohio, and those cracks could have implications in November.
-- Hillary Clinton cleaned up with Union households - like she did in Ohio. 
-- Clinton did better than Obama with lower income voters.
-- Clinton won Catholic voters.
-- Clinton won Jewish voters.
-- Clinton increased her margins in suburban and rural areas - without losing ground in urban areas.
-- Clinton won Pennsylvania suburbs by 12-points

The New York Times' Nagourney looks at how much Obama's problems have to do with race. "While arguably critical to determining the viability of Mr. Obama's candidacy, the role of race is difficult to disentangle from the other strands of the political debate surrounding him, encompassing topics like values, elitism, ideology and experience. Although some polling evidence hints at the depth of racial attitudes in this country and the obstacles Mr. Obama faces winning white voters, it has historically proved challenging to measure how racial attitudes factor into voter decisions. (Respondents do not tend to announce to pollsters that they will not vote for a candidate because he or she is black.)"

"It is also hard to discount that Mr. Obama has arrived at this place in his candidacy after winning big victories in very white states. The crowds at his rallies are as white as any at a Clinton rally, and many analysts in both parties believe that racial attitudes in this country are changing at a breakneck pace, particularly among younger voters, making it risky to impose models from even four years ago on this unusual election."

Ex-Virgina Gov. Doug Wilder, an Obama supporter, offers some advice to Obama. Most importantly, be prepared for folks to continue lying to pollsters due to race. That said, Wilder is confident about Obama's chances and thinks if the GOP gets seen by the public as if they were race-baiting, they'll be in trouble.

Here's a story the Clinton campaign will be moving around a lot today. The LA Times: "Obama continued accepting donations from oil company executives and employees last month even as he aired ads in which he stated he took no oil company money, his campaign finance reports show. Obama has taken at least $263,000 from oil company executives, family members and employees since entering the presidential race last year, including $46,000 last month. At least $140,000 has come in chunks of between $1,000 and $2,300, the maximum permitted under federal law."

Fitch-gate? "An Abercrombie & Fitch spokesman said the placement [of three young men in the company's apparel behind Obama during his concession speech] was nothing more than coincidence, although he acknowledged fielding several calls from friends, relatives and an investor wondering the same thing. 'We don't pursue product placement as a company at all,' said spokesman Thomas Lennox." More: The Obama camp also denied any paid sponsorship from the company. Indeed, campaign finance records list just one individual donation from an Abercrombie & Fitch employee, for $500."

"Since the fall, pro-Obama street art has popped up all over the country, primarily in urban areas such as New York, Chicago, Seattle and LA. In several cases, the Obama campaign has been directly responsible - although it has very carefully kept plausible distance, for the purposes of "street cred" and obeying the law."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Audra Ostergard, the lone remaining Nebraska superdelegate, publicly endorsed Obama, per a campaign release. Obama now has the backing of all six Nebraska superdelegates. Today, Obama announced two superdelegates (Ostergard and OK Gov. Brad Henry) and Clinton announced one (TN Rep. John Tanner).

Clinton now holds a 263-239 superdelegate lead.
Obama leads by 133 overall: 1,729-1,596.
Obama leads by 157 in the pledged delegate count: 1,490-1,333

The Pennsylvania pledged count (updated 4/23, 6:15 pm): Clinton 82-73 (three delegates still to be allocated.)

There are 408 delegates up for grabs in the remaining nine contests.

And a new addition, some "fun" with POPULAR VOTE numbers...
Without MI/FL:
Obama: 14,447,566
Clinton: 13,965,192

With FL, but NOT MI:
Obama: 15,016,607
Clinton: 14,822,400

With MI/FL, including "uncommitted" for Obama:
Obama: 15,254,369
Clinton: 15,150,551

With MI/FL, giving Obama 0 in MI and Clinton 328,000-plus (the only metric which gives her a lead):
Clinton: 15,150,551
Obama: 15,016,607