From NBC's Mark Murray
The AP is reporting -- and First Read has confirmed with a campaign source -- that Clinton raised $20 million in March, about half of Obama's haul for the month. Still, as the AP notes, it is Clinton's second-best monthly performance.

What is unknown about Clinton's March haul, however, is the split between the money that can be used for the primary versus the general. In the past, a fraction of Clinton's monthly and quarterly fundraising hauls has included general-election money.

From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
RALEIGH, NC -- Clinton told North Carolina reporters today she has agreed to participate in a debate hosted by CBS in the state on April 27th. (The Obama campaign has not yet accepted, although the Illinois senator had agreed previously to an April 19th date.)

The announcement came during a conference call with members of the state press touting Clinton's new ad strategy. "This is not your typical 30-second commercial," Clinton said of the new ad buy, which will feature a new question each week from a North Carolina voter submitted on a new Web site launched by the campaign at NCAskMe.com.

Ace Smith, Clinton's state director in North Carolina, calls the strategy "a unique experiment in democracy."

Clinton described the idea of "continuing the conversation" with North Carolinians via television ads as a means of reaching out to as many voters as possible despite a busy campaign schedule. "I want to be as accessible to the people of North Carolina as possible, but obviously we are campaigning hard in all of the remaining states," Clinton said. "And so I wanted to give folks this opportunity to ask me questions."

The first of the 60-second ads, which begin running statewide tomorrow, will be Clinton's first television presence in the North Carolina. It features Clinton addressing the camera directly, but spokeswoman Carly Lindauer says future ads will have "a different flavor each week."

"I wouldn't be surprised if we even saw [Sen. Clinton] in somebody's living room answering a question," in a future ad, she added.

Lindauer says that the interactive ad strategy is not meant as a substitute for visits from the senator, who will be in the state "frequently."

Clinton noted on the call that she, along with her husband and daughter, will be spending more time in the state in the coming weeks. "You're going to see a lot of us," she said.

Here's the script:
Hi, if you are looking for a typical political commercial, switch the channel. This isn't a typical election, and these are not typical times. The economy is reeling and as I talk with people across North Carolina, I hear about the crushing cost of healthcare from Winston-Salem to Fayetteville. I hear stories about families going into debt to send their children to college. Military families from Fort Bragg tell me their deep concerns about how we're treating our veterans. Teachers and parents tell me that No Child Left Behind just isn't working. And everywhere, North Carolinians tell me the middle class is just getting slammed.

I want to hear from you. Because this election isn't about me, it is about you. So let's have a conversation. Just go to NCAskMe.com, and then I'll be getting back to you here on TV to answer your questions and offer some solutions. Thanks. It's nice talking with you. I'm Hillary Clinton and I approve this message.

Some other "conversations" here and here and here.

Note: This is the fifth ad Obama has run in Pennsylvania, not the second as the original headline said.

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
Obama has launched a 30-second ad in Pennsylvania (which is also running in Indiana), telling voters he will stand up to the special interests that have shipped their jobs overseas. It is Obama's second in Pennsylvania. His first focuses on gas prices and blames special interests influence for high cost of fuel.
 
"For decades, politicians have talked about protecting jobs," Obama says in the latest ad, standing on the grounds of a closed steel plant, rusted steel structures behind him. "But the power of Washington lobbyists stops anything from changing."
 
Obama adds that he first moved to Chicago to help those who lost jobs at closed steel plants get back on their feet. "We'll fix our trade laws. End tax breaks for companies who ship jobs overseas," he says. "And give them to those create jobs here -- in America."

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
JACKSONVILLE, FL -- Continuing his tour through personal history, McCain spoke at Cecil Field here this morning, the former Navy base where his family was cared for while he was a POW in Vietnam.

Compared with his previous three stops, today's address was chock full of red meat for the enthusiastic crowd that had waited in a line stretching down the street to get into the hangar where the speech was held.  

Before launching into his laundry list of policy concerns, McCain stressed the need for action in combating a global threat by saying, "We need to marshal all elements of American power: our military, economy, investment, trade, and technology. We need to strengthen our alliances, and build support in other nations, which must, whether they believe it or not, confront the same threat to their way of life that we do."

This threat could be either manmade or natural, McCain said, but regardless the "government, across jurisdictions, should be organized and ready to deliver bottled drinking water to dehydrated babies and rescue the aged and infirm trapped in a hospital with no electricity."

What followed was a veritable greatest hits of candidate talking points for the 2008 presidential election cycle, as McCain dove into the parts of America that need improvement, including -- but by no means limited to -- health care, Social Security and Medicare, energy independence, diplomatic strength, free trade, and the need for an expanded military.

His point?

"We're the world's leader, and leaders don't pine for the past and dread the future," McCain said of America. "We make the future better than the past. We don't hide from history. We make history. That is the essence of hope in America."

Also making a relatively rare appearance on the campaign trail at this morning's speech were his three adult children from his first marriage -- Doug, Andy, and Sydney. The three were on stage while their father spoke, along with McCain's 96-year-old mother and two siblings, Sandy and Joe.

The Democrats have already hit back with a detailed list of where McCain's voting record contradicts his messages from this morning. From DNC Communications Director Karen Finney: "John McCain seems intent on talking about every part of his biography except the quarter of a century he has spent in Washington pursuing an out of touch Republican agenda that undermines the economic security of America's working families."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
There is some discussion today about elected superdelegates and which candidate is leading among the group. An NBC News analysis shows Clinton maintains a 94-93 lead among the 306 Democratic U.S. Senators, U.S. Representatives and state governors.

Below is a full breakdown of the numbers and who has endorsed.

Note: NBC News has excluded from this count delegates from U.S. Territories and Michigan/Florida, states that were stripped of their delegates to the national convention. As yet, there is no solution to seating voting delegations from those states.

THE NUMBERS:
U.S. SENATORS (including themselves and not MI/FL or Territories):
Obama 14
Clinton 12

* 20 senators remain uncommitted.
 
U.S. REPRESENTATIVES (not including MI/FL or Territories):
Clinton 73
Obama 69

* 91 representatives remain uncommitted.

Note: This also does not include Rep. Al Wynn, an Obama supporter who lost his primary fight, because Wynn said he will vacate his office in June -- two months before the convention -- to accept a job at a law firm; or delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton -- who is for Obama.

GOVERNORS (not including MI/FL or Territories):
Obama 10
Clinton 9

* 10 governors remain uncommitted.

TOTAL AMONG ELECTED SUPERDELEGATES:
Clinton 94
Obama 93

TOTAL AMONG OTHERS (including delegates from territories, D.C. and party activists and former leaders):
Clinton 161
Obama 132

OVERALL SUPERDELEGATE COUNT (out of 793):
Clinton 255
Obama 224

*314 superdelegates remain uncommitted

NBC PLEDGED DELEGATE COUNT:
Obama 1,416
Clinton 1,252

OVERALL COMBINED COUNT (with pledged delegates and supers):
Obama 1,640
Clinton 1,507

Here is the full NBC News endorsement list from the Senate, House and state governors:

U.S. SENATE
OBAMA (14)
Robert P. Casey, Jr.
Kent Conrad
Christopher J. Dodd
Byron L. Dorgan
Richard J. Durbin
Tim Johnson
Edward M. Kennedy
John Kerry
Amy Klobuchar
Patrick J. Leahy
Claire McCaskill
Ben Nelson
Barack Obama
John D. Rockefeller
 
CLINTON (12)
Evan Bayh
Maria Cantwell
Hillary Rodham Clinton
Dianne Feinstein
Daniel Inouye
Blanche Lambert Lincoln
Robert Menendez
Barbara Mikulski
Patty Murray
Mark Pryor
Charles E. Schumer
Sheldon Whitehouse

U.S. HOUSE
CLINTON (73)
AR Marion Berry
AR Mike Ross
AR Vic Snyder
AZ Ed Pastor
CA Joe Baca
CA Dennis Cardoza
CA Jane Harman
CA Doris Matsui
CA Grace Napolitano
CA Laura Richardson
CA Lucille Roybal-Allard
CA Loretta Sanchez
CA Brad Sherman
CA Hilda Solis
CA Ellen Tauscher
CA Mike Thompson
CA Maxine Waters
CA Diane Watson
CA Lynn Woolsey
CO Diana DeGette
IA Leonard Boswell
MA Barney Frank
MA Stephen Lynch
MA James McGovern
MA Richard Neal
MD Dutch Ruppersberger
MO Emanuel Cleaver
NJ Robert Andrews
NJ Frank Pallone
NJ Bill Pascrell
NJ Donald Payne
NJ Albio Sires
NV Shelley Berkley
NY Gary Ackerman
NY Michael Arcuri
NY Timothy Bishop
NY Yvette Clarke
NY Joseph Crowley
NY Eliot Engel
NY Kirsten Gillibrand
NY John Hall
NY Brian Higgins
NY Maurice Hinchey
NY Steven Israel
NY Nita Lowey
NY Carolyn Maloney
NY Carolyn McCarthy
NY Michael McNulty
NY Gregory Meeks
NY Jerry Nadler
NY Charles Rangel
NY Jose Serrano
NY Louise Slaughter
NY Edolphus Towns
NY Nydia Velazquez
NY Anthony Weiner
OH Stephanie Tubbs Jones
OR Darlene Hooley
PA Paul Kanjorski
PA John Murtha
PA Allyson Schwartz
PA Joe Sestak
RI James Langevin
TX Henry Cuellar
TX Gene Green
TX Ruben Hinojosa
TX Sheila Jackson Lee
TX Solomon Ortiz
TX Silvestre Reyes
VI Donna Christensen 
WA Norm Dicks
WA Jay Inslee
WI Tammy Baldwin

OBAMA (69)
AL Artur Davis
AZ Raul Grijalva
CA Xavier Becerra
CA Anna Eshoo
CA Barbara Lee
CA Zoe Lofgren
CA George Miller
CA Linda Sanchez
CA Adam Schiff
CO Ed Perlmutter
CT Rosa DeLauro
CT John Larson
CT Chris Murphy
GA John Barrow
GA Sanford Bishop
GA Hank Johnson
GA John Lewis
GA David Scott
HI Neil Abercrombie
IA Dave Loebsack
IL Melissa Bean
IL Jerry Costello
IL Danny Davis
IL Bill Foster
IL Luis Gutierrez
IL Phil Hare
IL Jesse Jackson Jr.
IL Bobby Rush
IL Janice Schakowsky
IL Dan Lipinski
KY Rep. John Yarmuth
MA Michael Capuano
MA Bill Delahunt
MD Elijah Cummings
MN Keith Ellison
MN Betty McCollum
MN Jim Oberstar
MN Rep. Tim Walz
MO Russ Carnahan
MO Wm. Lacy Clay
MS Bennie Thompson
NC G.K. Butterfield
ND Earl Pomeroy
NH Paul Hodes
NH Carol Shea Porter
NJ Steven Rothman
OR Earl Blumenauer
PA Chaka Fattah
PA Patrick Murphy
RI Patrick Kennedy
SD Stephanie Herseth
TN Steve Cohen
TN Jim Cooper
TX Lloyd Doggett
TX Rep. Chet Edwards
TX Al Green
TX Charlie Gonzalez
TX Eddie Bernice Johnson
VT Peter Welch
VA Jim Moran
VA Rick Boucher
VA Bobby Scott
WA Rep. Brian Baird
WA Adam Smith
WV Rep. Nick Rahall
WI Steve Kagen
WI Ron Kind
WI Gwen Moore
WI David Obey

GOVERNORS
OBAMA (10)
AZ Janet Napolitano
IA Chet Culver
IL Rod Blagojevich
KS Kathleen Sebelius
MA Deval Patrick
NM Bill Richardson
VA Tim Kaine
WI Jim Doyle
WA Christine Gregoire
WY Dave Freudenthal

CLINTON (9)
AR Mike Beebe 
DE Ruth Ann Minner
MD Martin O'Malley
ME John Baldacci
NJ Jon Corzine
NY David Paterson
OH Ted Strickland
OR Ted Kulongoski
PA Edward Rendell

[EDITOR'S NOTE: An earlier version of this post inadvertently left off NM Gov. Bill Richardson. The numbers are adjusted.]

*** UPDATE *** We've added Bill Foster to our list and adjusted the above numbers. We knew of Foster's likely support of Obama (since he ran an ad for him in his IL district), but this video certainly proves it.

From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
Thanks to a team of gracious number-crunchers at the North Carolina State Board of Elections, here's another fascinating tidbit about voter registration in the state -- custom-crafted at NBC/NJ's request.

It's big news that the number of NEW registrations is off the charts here in the Tar Heel State, as many voters wake up to the blinding spotlight of presidential politics aimed unexpectedly in their squinting eyes. More than 165,000 previously unregistered voters have signed up since the first of the year.

But there's also a lot of movement within the ranks of registered voters. Between January and March of this year, more than 30,000 currently registered voters changed their party identification. Over 12,000 of those, about 40%, are previously Republican voters who have moved OUT of the party to register either as Democrats or as unaffiliated voters able to participate in either primary on May 6th. Subtract from that the number of Dems and unaffiliated voters who moved into the GOP, and there's still a net LOSS of about 6,700 Republican voters in three months. By contrast, the Democratic Party nabbed a net of about 4,000 voters -- previously Republican or unaffiliated -– who moved into the Dem column.  And the unaffiliated group, which gained almost 50,000 new voters in the last three months, added an additional 2,700 net from the shuffle.

Why am I telling you all this? Unaffiliateds are the big bold wildcard in the Carolina election -- they're difficult to poll and even harder to target, and their motivations are all over the map. From Republicans hoping to throw a monkey wrench in the Democratic primary at Limbaugh's urging, to disenchanted partisans seeking a unity candidate, to last-minute undecideds, these are the voters who could surprise us all.

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli and NBC's Chuck Todd
BLOOMINGTON, IN -- Move over, "Rocky" analogies. At Indiana University yesterday, Hillary Clinton was compared to both Robert F. Kennedy and the school's basketball program at an event featuring former President Bill Clinton.

Speaking somewhere near center court at Assembly Hall, Bill Clinton outlined the four main reasons he said voters should pick his wife in the state's May 6 primary. The final reason -- that she is the "best change-maker," inspired Clinton to recall Kennedy's legacy, particularly the role he played after the death of Martin Luther King Jr. 40 years ago.

"When I was the age of a lot of you, I sat with tears in my eyes and watched Bobby Kennedy give that speech here in Indianapolis, when Martin Luther King was dead and I didn't know what in the living daylights had become of my country," he said. "Now, we got all these terrible problems, I know it, but you wanna talk about terrible, that was terrible." (FYI: The Clintons have to know they'll get fact-checked on statements like this. No doubt  the former president knows the facts are on his side before he talks about a memory like this, but given the Bosnia incident, the press corps will trust but verify.)

Clinton said that he was a student at Georgetown in DC at the time of King's assassination. "The city exploded into flames and I turned my car into an ambulance and I took supplies to the African Americans that were burned out of their homes and were hiding in church basements," he recalled. "It was a long time ago. But I always thought America would have been a very different place if Robert Kennedy had lived, because he wanted to be the candidate of people who had hopes and dreams, and also the candidate of people who could barely keep body and soul together."

Clinton also said, as he has occasionally in the past, that there were "lots of interesting parallels" between the '68 presidential contest and the current race, casting his wife in the role of Kennedy. "Most of the blue-collar folks that knew they needed a president were for Kennedy. Most of the university students who wanted a feeling of change were for McCarthy, and they thought he had a purer position on the Vietnam War," he said.

Though he acknowledged some Kennedys, most notably Sen. Ted Kennedy, have endorsed Obama, he pointed to the support of RFK's "three most politically active children" for Hillary. "The Kennedy family's divided just like a lot of families," he said. "Jesse Jackson and his son, the congressman, are for Senator Obama. Jesse Jackson's wife and his son, the businessman, are for Hillary."

Speaking about the Iraq war earlier, Clinton said that he found the idea that there was a "massive difference" between Hillary and Obama on the war "one of the most curious things" in the race. "[It] requires a highly selective reading of the evidence," he said. "You gotta be highly selective and just sort of erase certain years from your fact base if you're gonna make that case."

Clinton arrived at Indiana University more than two hours late, as the former president has been doing more and more lately. "I thank you for waiting for me," he told the thousands who packed the venue. "I started late, and then everywhere we've been we've had these huge crowds, students coming out, schools. And I don't know how not to shake hands with people."

Clinton arrived on the campus the same day that the athletic program officially introduced Tom Crean as the new men's basketball coach. Clinton called himself "a total basketball fanatic" and said he was "glad to be on hallowed ground" on the court. He also met with Crean after the event.

Introducing Clinton, state Sen. Vi Simpson tied the Clintons to Hoosiers. "We've had a lot of winning teams here over the years -- teams who have come from behind, teams who have triumphed over adversity, teams who no matter how daunting the circumstances, have never given up. They've never surrendered," she said. "The Clintons, President Bill Clinton and Senator Hillary Clinton, have never stopped fighting. And they never will."

And signaling just that, Clinton spoke optimistically about his wife's chances in Indiana and other upcoming contests. He said there was a chance she could score "massive" wins in several. "I think there'll be a big question about why she shouldn't be the nominee if she has won most of the popular votes," he said.

From NBC's Mark Murray
The Obama campaign has issued a press release saying it raised more than $40 million in March. This amount is less than the $55 million it raised it February -- but it's still a significant haul.

The Obama press release...
CHICAGO, IL-Senator Barack Obama's campaign announced today that more than 442,000 contributors across the country gave more than $40 million in March. More than 218,000 donors contributed to the campaign for the first time, and the average contribution level was $96.
"Senator Obama has always said that this campaign would rise or fall on the willingness of the American people to become partners in an effort to change our politics and start a new chapter in our history," campaign manager David Plouffe said. "Today we're seeing the American people's extraordinary desire to change Washington, as tens of thousands of new contributors joined the more than a million Americans who have already taken ownership of this campaign for change. Many of our contributors are volunteering for the campaign, making our campaign the largest grassroots army in recent political history."
March Fundraising by the Numbers
Total Raised in March: More than $40 million
Contributors in March: More than 442,000
First-Time Contributors in March: More than 218,000
Average Contribution: $96
Total Contributors to Date: More than 1,276,000

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Two different maps: On TODAY and Morning Joe, NBC's Tim Russert took at a stab at November's electoral map. And this morning, we do the same, to show how different Clinton's and Obama's paths to 270 are. This is where we start, and we will be updating this regularly between now and November.
Obama vs. McCain
Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, WA (168 electoral votes)
Lean Obama:  NJ, MN, OR, WI (42)
Toss-up: CO, IA, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA (112)
Lean McCain: AR, FL, GA, LA, MS, MT, NC (81)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, IN, KS, KY, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (135)

Clinton vs. McCain
Base Clinton: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT (172)
Lean Clinton: AR, MN, OR, WA, WI (44)
Toss-up: FL, IA, MI, NM, NH, OH, PA (101)
Lean McCain: CO, LA, MO, NV, VA (47)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, MS, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (174)

*** Mixing and matching: Obviously, there's a lot of mixing and matching one can do, as Russert did this morning. Check out how Obama can win without BOTH Ohio and Florida, as long as he wins Kerry's states plus Colorado and Virginia. Or toss in New Mexico, Iowa, and Nevada and he can lose Michigan, too. Clinton's path looks more traditional as long as she doesn't lose Oregon or Wisconsin. If she adds Ohio or Florida and loses Oregon, she can get it back by adding Arkansas. If she carries Oregon, but loses Wisconsin, she'll need Florida and Arkansas; Ohio and Arkansas won't do it. And as Russert pointed out, it's a bit too easy, again, to get to 269-269 -- meaning no candidate gets 270 and the election goes to the Dem-controlled House. In that scenario, by the way, each delegation gets one vote, so the formula is not cut-and-dried. And there would be pressure on some lawmakers to vote their state instead of their party. Sound familiar? Oy…

VIDEO: Hillary Clinton reportedly says only she, and not Barack Obama, can win again John McCain. NBC's Tim Russert looks at the issue.

*** Hillary's Mountain West problem? Is it just us, or does right now seem a lot like the weeks leading into Ohio and Texas, when Obama was picking up a superdelegate or two per day? Yesterday, Obama got two more of them: Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal and former Montana Sen. John Melcher. While these are two more superdelegates for Obama, they also represent Clinton's problems west of the Mississippi. In the past couple of election cycles, Democrats have made huge gains in the Mountain West (in Colorado and Montana, especially). And these elected officials seem to be gravitating toward Obama, not Clinton. Her numbers are not great in Colorado or Oregon; Bill Clinton was never overly popular out in the Mountain West. Could that Bill hangover be hurting Hillary? 

*** He said, they said: This discussion of the electoral map gains even more relevancy today with the report that Hillary told Bill Richardson that Obama "can't win." This version of events apparently took place in the days/hours right before Richardson went public with his Obama support. According to one source familiar with the Richardson-HRC conversation, she repeatedly told him Obama couldn't win. But this wasn't the only Obama electability conversation the Clintons and Richardson apparently had. A source with knowledge of earlier conversations between the Clintons and Richardson tells NBC News that it was Richardson who insisted to the Clintons that Obama could not win because of his inexperience. This source adds that Richardson repeatedly said that to both of them as the reason he wasn't going to endorse Obama because he was "Not ready -- can't win." However, this took place in and around Super Tuesday. So the he-said, they-said on this issue continues. No doubt the bad blood between the New Mexico governor and the Clintons has only gotten worse. Actually, it's likely that both sides are speaking the truth: Richardson may have believed Obama couldn't win on Feb. 5, but was convinced differently after Obama went on his 11-contest winning streak.

*** John's excellent adventure: Has McCain's bio tour worked? He ends it tomorrow in Memphis, which could be his most high-profile event, where he attends the events surrounding the anniversary of MLK's assassination. But what did McCain gain this week? The tour received some attention in newscasts and newspaper articles -- but nothing compared with what the latest dramas in the Clinton-Obama race attracted. The tour certainly hasn't hurt McCain. But did it help him? Just asking: What if they unveiled his bio each day at stops in three key states like Michigan, Florida, and Iowa? McCain is weaker in Iowa than a Republican should be and has ground to make up there. Also, stumping in Florida and Michigan would only serve as a chance to stick a finger in the eyes of the Democrats regarding their delegate dispute in those two states.

*** McCain tour, Day 4: The fourth leg of McCain's "Service to America" tour takes him to Jacksonville, FL. Per NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy, McCain lived there with his first wife and three children upon returning from his first tour in Vietnam upon the ill-fated Forrestal. When he shipped out again -- eventually to be shot down and taken prisoner in North Vietnam -- his family remained in Jacksonville and were cared for by the soldiers stationed at Cecil Field, the location of today's speech. "My family lived here before I went to war, and this is the place I came home to after the war," McCain will say, according to excerpts of his remarks. "We lived here again in 1974 for two years, when I was Executive Officer, and then Commanding Officer of VA 174, the Replacement Air Group at Cecil Field… This place was never more special to me than during my unexpectedly long deployment overseas, when the good people of this place looked after my family in my absence. I have always been indebted to Florida friends and neighbors in Orange Park for taking such good care of my family while I was away."

*** On the trail: Clinton raises money in Beverly Hills, CA and then appears on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno; Obama is down in Chicago; Bill Clinton campaigns in Altoona, PA, then heads to Kentucky (May 20 primary); and Chelsea Clinton stumps in Pennsylvania.  

Countdown to Pennsylvania: 19 days
Countdown to North Carolina, Indiana: 33 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 215 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 292 days
 
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PENNSYLVANIA: About 70 Jewish leaders in Pennsylvania signed an open letter expressing support for Obama, saying he has a 100 percent voting record on Israel and praising his recent speech on race.

NORTH CAROLINA: The front page of USA Today: "'I really believe May 6 has the potential to be everything,' says Joe Trippi... 'Every day you see increased pressure on Hillary Clinton about why she's staying in, and if she could win in North Carolina it would shut down that kind of talk and open up the possibility she could get there' to the nomination."

"'But if he wins in North Carolina,' Trippi says of Obama, 'I think you're going to see things close up very quickly. You'll see a lot of superdelegates line up behind him.'"

"Clinton campaign officials dispute the idea that a loss in North Carolina would be devastating, and Clinton has vowed to campaign until the last vote is counted, even if that means a credentials fight at the August convention in Denver… Still, Obama partisans and some unaffiliated Democrats, including Trippi, see North Carolina as Clinton's last chance to turn around her fading prospects — or face intense pressure from party leaders to suspend her campaign and avoid a summer of trench warfare that could hurt Democratic prospects in the general election this fall."

Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle (D) stumped for Obama in North Carolina yesterday.

INDIANA: The Wall Street Journal curtain-raises the contest in the Hoosier State contest. "A victory in Indiana and a good showing in North Carolina the same day would give the New York senator the justification and ensuing donations she needs to stay in the race until June, when all the remaining territories and states will have voted. A loss would add to recent calls from some prominent Democrats for her to drop out."

PUERTO RICO: The New York Times notes, "If the nominating contest lasts until June 1, Puerto Rico, with its 63 delegates, is expected to play an outsize role, with Mrs. Clinton hoping for a big victory. But the perennial debate over the status of the island looms, with the two candidates staking out positions of adamant neutrality. Rivals of the candidates have been combing policy statements for the slightest nuance that could betray support for statehood or commonwealth. Historically, pro-commonwealth politicians have loosely aligned with the Democratic Party, and the statehood side has been more of a coalition."

Interestingly, Obama has received the support of the leading advocate for keeping Puerto Rico's Commonwealth status (the governor who is now under indictment, by the way), as well as the leading advocate for statehood.

"Although Mr. Acevedo's action appears to have opened the gates for others to back Mr. Obama, his indictment also was an embarrassment to the Obama campaign. The governor, a superdelegate, had been courted by both campaigns, even though it was common knowledge that he was under investigation. The two campaigns have courted pro-statehood and pro-commonwealth supporters, and Mr. Obama's supporters are trying hard to integrate backers from both parties at an organizational level."

Per NBC's Tom Winter, Gov. Jon Corzine, a Clinton superdelegate, just said on CNBC's Squawk Box that he reserves the right to change his vote from Hillary Clinton if she doesn't have the popular vote. He stopped short of saying that he definitely would change his vote if she lost the popular vote and he did strongly emphasize that Sen. Clinton would win the popular vote in the end.

Sen. Maria Cantwell, another Clinton super, has said similar things regarding the popular vote.

"Obama can't win." That's the cover of the New York Post, as said by… Hillary Clinton to Bill Richardson. "While lobbying for his endorsement, Hillary Rodham Clinton flatly told New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson that Barack Obama could not win the presidency if he got the Democratic nomination. 'He cannot win, Bill. He cannot win,' she said, according to a report by ABC News."  and

There is definitely two versions of what the Clintons remember vs. what Bill Richardson remembers when it comes to his decision to endorse Obama. Bill Clinton believes Richardson promised he would not endorse. Pahl Shipley, a spokesman for Richardson, said his boss never promised to endorse Hillary Clinton. 'He never told the president or anybody else, for that matter,' Shipley said. 'The governor respectfully disagrees with the president.'"

The Washington Post: "In hushed tones, sometimes with palpable sadness in her voice, Clinton tells dark, difficult anecdotes picked up on the campaign trail. They often relate to health matters, culled from her conversations with voters, and are designed to illustrate a policy point. Presidential candidates across the decades, from Ronald Reagan to Bill Clinton to George W. Bush, have honed the art of picking out stories to bolster a policy position in particularly human terms. Former senator John Edwards (N.C.), who left the Democratic race this year, often cited the stories of people he defended as a trial lawyer. For all of his grandeur, Obama can turn serious as well; at least once, in an effort to demonstrate how fleeting life can be, he detoured from his speech to tell the story of a woman he had recently met who, moments later, found out that her child had been killed in a car accident."

For Clinton, the approach seems to bring together her best skills, especially her ability to listen to voters she meets. In speeches that sometimes wear on and sometimes derail into deadening policy, sharing bleak stories can focus the audience's attention." 

Clinton's unveiling of a new 3:00 am TV ad on the economy and hitting McCain sparked a back-and-forth with the Republican, just what Clinton's camp wanted. McCain's response was online. "Within hours, the McCain campaign released an advertisement on the Internet. It starts with images of the Clinton advertisement, with the narrator then commenting, 'Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama just said they'd solve the problem by raising your taxes — more money out of your pockets.'"

"The advertisements highlighted how the two parties' candidates have developed starkly different approaches to the housing meltdown, with Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton calling for billions of dollars in aid for distressed homeowners and Mr. McCain warning against costly federal intervention. Mr. McCain's rapid response recalled a similar advertisement by the Obama campaign in response to Mrs. Clinton's original red-phone advertisement, which questioned Mr. Obama's readiness to be president."

The Los Angeles Times does a fact-check of sorts on Clinton's Iraq policy promises. "Clinton has touted her role in the congressional effort to force President Bush to bring the troops home. 'I've been working day in and day out in the Senate to provide leadership to end this war,' Clinton recently told an audience at George Washington University, contrasting her experience with that of rival Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois.' … But since Democrats took control of Congress, Clinton has done relatively little to advance legislation to force the Bush administration to withdraw from Iraq, according to congressional records and lawmakers and staff members who have worked on the issue."

"Instead, Clinton largely remained on the sidelines of the congressional debate, her legislation ignored as the Senate focused on measures developed by lawmakers who were more central to the legislative drive to end the war."

USA Today's editorial page does something it rarely does: It hits a candidate pretty hard. Today, it calls on Bill Clinton to release the names of donors to his foundations. "[G]iven Clinton's unusual circumstances, gifts to his foundation could rightly be seen as a back door into the good graces of someone who could be a key adviser to the next president. The stakes are simply too high not to have principles of open government take precedence over common fundraising practices."

Per NBC's John Boxley, Clinton will be on the "Ellen" for a taping today; the show will air Monday. This taping will take place following her appearance on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno.

In advance of McCain's speech at Cecil Field, Hotline On Call reports that Cecil Field is a big beneficiary of pork. "Between 2001 and 2005, Cecil Field received almost $10M in earmarked funds, according to Citizens Against Government Waste… In all fairness, McCain doesn't hail from the Sunshine State, of course, and he wasn't responsible for these particular earmarks. But he did vote for the 2004 and 2005 Defense Appropriation Conference Reports that contained the earmarks. The other three years, McCain either didn't vote or voted no on the reports." 
 
Could both of McCain's sons be serving in Iraq in the fall? It's possible. The Hill: "Democrats have claimed that a McCain White House would be tantamount to a third term of President Bush's Iraq strategy. But the dynamic of criticizing McCain on Iraq will be different than for the president, who did not serve in a war and does not have children serving abroad. GOP strategists say that McCain stands to gain more by keeping his sons' military credentials off-limits than by drawing on them for political gain."

"'He is playing it right. He is not going for the cheap political lines,' said John Feehery, who worked for former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) and is a contributor to The Hill's PunditsBlog. McCain has yet to mention his sons' military credentials on his ongoing biographical tour. McCain spoke at his own alma mater, the Naval Academy, on Wednesday, and then traveled to his old flight school in Pensacola, Fla."

The Boston Globe looks at McCain's health care philosophy. "McCain unveiled his healthcare proposal last fall, a journalist asked whether the Arizona senator's battle against skin cancer would make him sympathetic to the idea of requiring that insurance companies provide coverage to people with preexisting conditions. McCain flatly rejected the idea. 'That would be mandating what the free enterprise system does,' McCain said."

"McCain's response highlights the challenge he faces as he prepares to try to sell his healthcare plan in the fall campaign. He says the country must provide access to healthcare for all our citizens, and that 'we need to help people who need it.' But McCain also wants to shrink government's role in healthcare and doesn't want to impose regulations on insurance companies. As a result, McCain's aides have been scrambling to come up with ways to satisfy those who want more coverage without violating what they call McCain's conservative principles on the issue."

Staying on the domestic front, GOP analyst Jennifer Rubin wonders how McCain can deliver an economic message that will sell. "[H]is first hurdle: avoid sounding like Marie Antoinette when delivering hard truths to voters. McCain will face another challenge in convincing voters that he is not a one-trick pony. If Mitt Romney could pull out McCain's old quotes professing a relative lack of expertise about the economy, the Democrats certainly can. Hillary Clinton has conceded that McCain has impressive national security experience, but either of the Democratic contenders can argue that Americans are selecting a president, not a secretary of defense…

The AP: "Obama, who is expected to report raising between $30 million and $35 million in March, plans to spend a money-packed afternoon and evening Sunday at the northern California homes of four different financial backers. Clinton, whose March total was expected to be about $20 million, was attending a fundraiser Wednesday in Silicon Valley, followed by three events Thursday in San Francisco, Pasadena and Los Angeles."

Obama communications director Robert Gibbs said on Morning Joe that the Obama camp would be unveiling its March number later this morning.

"A man hellbent on getting a photo with the Democratic front-runner caused a scene Wednesday in Philadelphia's Italian Market, prompting the usually unflappable Obama to lose his patience with the pushy picture-seeker," the New York Daily News writes. "'You are wearing me out, brother,' an irritated Obama barked. Secret Service agents lost their patience, too, yanking the man at one point and getting in front of him at another - but never hauling him away." 
 
The AP takes a look at Obama's history with his Chicago church. "Obama was searching for answers, and perhaps a place to belong, when he decided to visit a fast-growing church recommended by friends."  
 
Obama's opposition to a potential trade deal with Colombia drew criticism from Colombia's president. "I deplore the fact that Senator Obama, aspiring to be president of the United States, should be unaware of Colombia's efforts," President Alvaro Uribe said in a statement. "I think it is for political calculations that he is making a statement that does not correspond to Colombia's reality."

The New York Times: "The first hint that President Bush might be detached from the nation's economic woes was in February, when he conceded that he had not heard about predictions of $4-a-gallon gasoline. Then Mr. Bush went to Wall Street to warn against 'massive government intervention in the housing markets,' two days before his administration helped broker the takeover of the investment bank Bear Stearns."

"Now Mr. Bush is in Eastern Europe, one of eight foreign trips he is taking this year. As he delivered his farewell address to NATO on Wednesday, Senate Democrats and Republicans were holed up in the Capitol, scrambling to produce a bill to help struggling homeowners, the kind of government intervention Mr. Bush had cautioned against."

"For a man who came into office as the nation's first M.B.A. president, Mr. Bush has sometimes seemed invisible during the housing and credit crunch. As the economy eclipses Iraq as the top issue on voters' minds, even some Republican allies of the president say Mr. Bush is being eclipsed and is in danger of looking out of touch."

Rep. Rob Andrews will challenge the 84-year-old incumbent Sen. Frank Lautenberg in the Dem primary, the New York Times writes. "Opposition to Mr. Lautenberg stems not from any ideological differences but rather his advanced age. In a statement, Mr. Andrews said: '2008 is a year of great change in American politics. Millions of new voters have chosen to enter the political process as a means to make our country better. As New Jersey elects a United States senator this year, people from all over the state have expressed the desire to have real choices based on a positive, substantive campaign.'"

"The primary winner is expected to be heavily favored in the November election against whoever emerges among the three little-known Republicans competing for their party's nomination: State Senator Joseph Pennacchio, a dentist from Morris County; Murray Sabrin, a finance professor at Ramapo College; and Andrew Unanue, a political novice and Manhattan resident whose family owns the Goya food company. Still, New Jersey's Democrats must now cope with a bruising primary fight between two well-financed and well-known contenders."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Obama picked up another superdelegate, continuing the slow drip in his direction. (He has picked up 12 since March 4th to Clinton's one.)

The latest is former Sen. John Melcher, of Montana. "Melcher says he chose Obama because he believes the Illinois senator has been against the Iraq war since the start," the AP reports.

Melcher served in the U.S. Senate from 1977 to 1989 and is a superdelegate to the national convention based on his role with the National Democratic Seniors Coordinating Committee.

Obama now leads in the overall delegate count, 1,639-1,507. Clinton leads among superdelegates, 255-223.

From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
PITTSBURGH, Pa. -- Teresa Heinz Kerry joined Michelle Obama at a rally at Carnegie Mellon University today, saying she hoped the state would support Obama the way it had voted for both of her husbands.

"Pennsylvania voted for both of these good men," she said, referring to the late John Heinz, a former Republican senator in the state, and Sen. John Kerry, the 2004 presidential candidate. "And this election, I hope Pennsylvania will join me in casting a ballot for another great and good man, Sen. Barack Obama."

It was Heinz Kerry's first event on Obama's behalf; her husband endorsed him before the South Carolina primary. The rally was also Michelle Obama's first campaign stop in Pennsylvania.

With Obama now leading in the national polls, Michelle Obama said she has seen how the bar for her husband has been consistently raised this year, and how he has met each of the challenges.

"The irony is that's what's going on for regular folks in this country," she said. "The truth of the American experience today for many regular folks is that folks are trying to reach a bar that just keeps moving."

But, Obama said she still believes her husband is the underdog in the race.

"We are gonna need Pennsylvania," she said. "Because in this ever-shifting, moving bar, Barack Obama will always be the underdog. No matter how much money he raises, no matter how many wins he pulls together, no matter how many delegates he accumulates; he is still the underdog. It's the way it works."

Obama spoke to a group of about 600 people, a wide mix of students and community members. She was joined on the rope line after the event by Heinz Kerry, who earlier hosted her at a private luncheon.

From NBC's Mark Murray
On the Clinton conference call unveiling its new ad, Slate's John Dickerson -- as he did with the earlier 3:00 am ad -- asked: When has Hillary Clinton ever answered the phone at 3:00 am before regarding an economic crisis?

There wasn't the "pregnant pause" there was the first time.

Communications director Howard Wolfson responded that unless one is president, "you don't have a single moment" like answering the phone at 3:00 am. But Wolfson noted that Clinton "has a lifetime of experience, both in and out of the White House… Ultimately, voters make this decision." And he added, "Voters have made this decision, based on the results of Ohio and Texas, that Sen. Clinton passed this test."

Dickerson followed up, asking the Clinton campaign to point a specific example when Clinton responded to an economic crisis. Wolfson pointed to her efforts to ensure that New York got the resources it needed after 9/11. "There is much, much credit to go around," he said. "But. Sen. Clinton certainly did her part."

From NBC's Mark Murray

In a conference call with reporters, the Clinton campaign announced that it's unveiling another 3:00 am TV ad -- this one hitting McCain on the economy.

The 30-second ad will air in Pennsylvania, and communications director Howard Wolfson said he believes it's the first Democratic TV ad this cycle to mention McCain.

[YouTube:8XpaK-cGO9U]

Here's the script:
Announcer: It's 3 am, and your children are safe and asleep.
But there's a phone ringing in the White House and this time the crisis is economic.
Home foreclosures mounting, markets teetering.
John McCain just said the government shouldn't take any real action on the housing crisis, he'd let the phone keep ringing.
Hillary Clinton has a plan to protect our homes, create jobs.
It's 3 am, time for a president who's ready.
Hillary Clinton: I'm Hillary Clinton and I approve this message.

*** UPDATE *** McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds replies to the ad, "John McCain is ready to lead with a pro-growth economic plan to lower taxes, cut government spending, empower America's entrepreneurs and get our economy back on track. Americans can't afford the Democrats' liberal agenda to raise taxes, nationalize health care, cut off trade and crush the economy under big government."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
It's NAFTA, take two. Before Ohio, NAFTA became an obvious issue with the 200,000-plus manufacturing jobs that have been lost there since 2000. Clinton was also the obvious target, being that her husband is largely responsible for NAFTA. But it was Obama who wound up taking it on the chin after it was revealed that an economic adviser had met with Canadian officials on the topic. (To reassure or not to reassure? That's the question.)

So, the Obama campaign is trying again with Pennsylvania approaching, using Clinton's AFL-CIO speech as peg. In her speech, she said she had opposed NAFTA since 1992. The Obama campaign also brought out Rep. George Miller, an Obama supporter, who opposed NAFTA. He says he doesn't remember Clinton lobbying those who were opposed, like him. And he cites her White House schedules as evidence that she, in fact, lobbied for it.

I find it rather interesting," Miller said, adding there's "hard evidence" that in a "number of instances, she spoke in favor of" NAFTA … "lobbied for NAFTA. Why didn't she speak to those of us" working against it?

"I don't know who these audiences were," Miller continued, "but they weren't members of Congress, who were working" to amend or kill NAFTA. "I find it very disturbing that she'd try to rewrite history at this point. … Both [Obama and Clinton] are good candidates; I don't think they need to inflate their resumes."

Obama Communications Director Robert Gibbs called her opposition to NAFTA an "exaggeration" and likened it to her "sniper fire" comments.

"This is not just about the past," Gibbs added. It speaks of how she would be in the "future," Gibbs said.

NOTE: On Time's reporting that Obama raised $30 million in March, Gibbs said, "Only two people in the campaign know that -- the campaign manager and the finance director. I don't think it's accurate. We hope to provide a number tomorrow."

Gibbs did not indicate in which direction the number was inaccurate.

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
PHILADELPHIA -- Speaking to the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO convention here, Obama referenced Clinton's comparison yesterday of herself to Rocky, telling the audience not to confuse fact with fiction.

"I know there's been some talk about Rocky Balboa over the last couple of days. And you know, we all love Rocky. We all love Rocky," he said. "And last time I checked, I was the underdog in this state. So, so, the uh, so, so you know, I like the Rocky story. But we got to remember that Rocky was a movie. And so is the idea that somebody can fight for working people and at the same time embrace the broken system in Washington, where corporate lobbyists use their clout to shape laws to their liking." (It's also worth noting, as many have, that Rocky actually lost in a split decision in the original movie.)

Returning to the themes of his economic speech in New York, Obama told the crowd that "pain trickled up," and the country was relearning that "what was bad for Main Street was bad for Wall Street." He railed against the Bush Administration, which he called the most anti-union movement in history, and he promised that he wouldn't distance himself from labor should he become the Democratic nominee.

"It's time we have a Democratic nominee who doesn't just talk about unions in the primary," he said.

Focusing on McCain, Obama also took advantage of the Arizona senator's admission that he wasn't the best on the economy. "Now, John McCain said a few weeks ago that 'the issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should' -- and that's clear since all he's offering is more of the same Bush policies that have put the American Dream out of reach for so many Americans," Obama said.

*** UPDATE *** Upon reading this post, RNC spokesman Alex Conant emails First Read this response: "It's clear Obama lacks experience on economic issues, but that does not excuse his irresponsible calls for higher taxes on individuals and small businesses during economic challenges. Rather than mislead people about McCain's positions, Obama should honestly describe his own calls for higher taxes and spending."

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
PITTSBURGH, Pa. -- Hillary Clinton used an "economic summit" here Wednesday to announce another piece of her jobs program, a proposal to provide $7 billion a year in tax incentives and investment for firms that create jobs in America.

The plan, launched on the final day of a tour focusing on the economy, would promote what the New York senator terms "insourcing" of jobs. Clinton would pay for it in the same way she has proposed financing many of her plans, by closing "loopholes in our tax code" so that companies are not rewarded for shipping jobs overseas.

"We have to get back to really answering the call to America to seize the future once again. I obviously believe we can do this. I'm confident and optimistic," she said. "Today I'm announcing my 'Insourcing' agenda. You know, we hear so much about outsourcing. We all know what that is. It's when we lose jobs to other countries and I want to put and end to that."

The plan, she said, would help promote research centers around the country by encouraging partnerships between universities, private businesses and state and local governments, provide $5 billion in tax credits to companies to help them compete globally and would invest $500 million a year to encourage the creation of clean energy jobs.

"Today I'm proposing one of the largest expansions of tax benefits for research and job growth in a generation," she said. "We have to update our tools for rewarding innovation. The research-and-development tax credit, for example, has been a successful, cost-effective tool to increase investment in research jobs here in the United States. When I'm president, we will increase it by 50 percent. We'll also invest in basic research."

As the former first lady was proposing new policy, her rival Obama announced he had received the endorsement of former Indiana Rep. Lee Hamilton, who was a chairman of both the Iraq Study Group and the Sept. 11 commission. Hamilton is not a superdelegate, but he could give Obama a boost in Indiana where Clinton has the backing of much of the Democratic establishment.

Clinton hosted the summit at the local International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers training facility, after touring several research labs focusing on Alzheimer's disease, stem cell research and microbes.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
Eleven members of the Florida Democratic contingent met today with DNC Chairman Howard Dean to discuss possible ways to seat the Florida delegation at the national convention in August.

"It was a good meeting," a DNC spokesperson said. "Dean brought them together; all agreed to work together to ensure that a Florida delegation is seated."

In fact, Dean said he'd do everything in his power to make sure the delegation is seated, but any solution would have to be in accordance with the rules, and both campaigns would need to agree.

The sticking point, of course, has been just how to accomplish that. It's been convention wisdom -- even since before the Florida primary -- that any would-be nominee would seat at least a non-voting Florida delegation.

In attendance at the meeting from Florida were Sen. Bill Nelson, Reps. Alcee Hastings, Corrine Brown, Bob Wexler, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Ron Klein, Tim Mahoney, Kathy Castor, Allan Boyd, Kendrick Meek and Karen Thurman.

A joint statement from the group is expected today.

*** UPDATE *** Here's the joint statement: "We are all committed to doing everything we can to ensure that a Florida delegation is seated in Denver. We all agree that whatever the solution, it must have the support of both campaigns.  While there may be differences of opinion in how we get there, we are all committed to ensuring that Florida's delegation is seated in Denver. We're committed to working with both campaigns to reach a solution as soon as realistically possible. We are also laying the groundwork to ensure we win in Florida in November and spent time here today talking about how to do just that.  We will continue to work towards a solution to ensure delegates are seated and logistics are in place for a Florida delegation in Denver."

From NBC's Mark Murray
The AP is reporting -- and First Read has confirmed -- that Wyoming Gov.

Dave Freudenthal, a Dem superdelegate, is endorsing Obama.

That brings our superdelegate count to Clinton 255, Obama 222.

Overall, with pledged delegates added, it's now Obama 1,638, Clinton 1,507.

*** UPDATE *** Since March 4, Obama has picked up 11 superdelegates to Clinton's one.