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  • McCain grows confident

    From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
    FAIRFIELD, Conn. -- Appearing with his "favorite" Democrat Joe Lieberman, McCain held a rally here this afternoon and appeared more comfortable as the frontrunner for his party's nomination. While railing against wasteful spending and citing the need for specific economic proposals, McCain started looking past Tuesday.

    "I have laid out some very specific set of proposals and we will be coming forward with more proposals as the nominee of my party as we address these economic challenges," McCain said.

    He also got a bit more specific than usual in his criticisms of the wasteful spending of his Democratic opponents.

    "In her short time in the United States Senate, the senator from New York -- Senator Clinton -- has gotten $500 billion worth of pork barrel projects," McCain said. "My friend, that kind of thing is going to stop when I'm President of the United States of America… This spending increases interest rates. It makes you pay more for you home loan mortgage. It makes you pay more for anything that you do."

    Walking the gray line between pumping up a local crowd and exuding confidence about his chances in the GOP primary, McCain made some bold predictions about the hopes of his candidacy in this typically Democratic state.

    "We will win Connecticut," McCain said, referring to Tuesday's primary. "I will get the nomination of my party and I will campaign in this state. And my friends in November and October and September and August and July, I will campaign in the state of Connecticut and I will win it and we will win the state of Connecticut in the election in November with your help."

    Then pointing to his friend and frequent partner on the campaign trail, he said that a victory would be because of Lieberman.

    "If I do win it will be because of this great American and my beloved friend and chapter in profiles in courage in anybody's book that writes a story about the 21st century," McCain said.

    Asked later if the support of a former Democratic vice presidential candidate hurt him amongst conservatives, McCain stuck up for his friend saying, "I think Joe Lieberman is one of the most respected men in America by every political part of the spectrum," and "if someone feels that's a detriment, I proudly, I proudly wear his support and friendship, and obviously that they would feel free to support another candidate." 

    As sometimes happens at his rallies, McCain was interrupted in the middle of his stump speech by a war protester holding a video camera. He paused and waited for the protester to be removed while the crowd tried to drown his yelling out with chanting of their own, but later he said that he respected the protester's sentiments.

    "I know America is divided over this war," McCain said. "I heard our friends there yelling and I respect their views, but let me also say to you my dear friends that America is divided over this war. America is divided. No American is divided in our support of the brave young men and women who are serving this country in military today."

  • Clinton: Avoid 'more of the same'

    From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
    BRIDGETON, Mo. -- Hillary Clinton began a rally here Sunday by arguing this election represented an opportunity for America to change direction and avoid "more of the same."

    "This election has the turning point potential. It can either get us back on the right track or to continue down the road that's labeled more of the same," she told a crowd of a few hundred at a town hall outside St Louis. 

    The New York senator has been spending a lot more time in recent days talking about the future and the need to focus on the next generation rather than simply the next election and while her line today wasn't totally new, it sounded like an effort to co-opt her rival's main message. 

    Obama often talks about the need to "turn the page" on what he calls the divisive politics of Washington and his latest pitch centers on the theme that this election is about the past versus the future. This past week, he said voters should resist the temptation to build "a bridge back to the 20th century". It was a way of arguing against another Clinton presidency. (The phrase was a play on Bill Clinton's line about building a bridge to the 21st century.)

    Polls show Clinton leading Obama in Missouri, but the race is tight and today, it seemed that Clinton was trying to use Obama's argument to win points with voters who want change.

    She also spoke about what she believes is necessary to win the next election.

    "There is no doubt we will have a clear contrast in the general election. I know that in order to win we have to have a united Democratic Party, which we will. We have to have a candidate with the good ideas and the experience to make the case that we can have a country that once again delivers results for the vast majority of Americans and we have to have someone who is ready to go toe to toe with the Republicans," she said.

    Clinton spent the rest of her speech hitting all the points she usually makes and reprising her criticism of Obama for offering a healthcare plan that doesn't cover everyone.

    She closed with an appeal to voters to choose her as the candidate who can best bring change to the country. It was a fresher, more to-the-point line than we often hear from her.

    "For those undecided voters in the "Show me" state, we have two candidates left after a vigorous and intense year of campaigning. Either one of us will change history," she said to applause.  "That is not the question. The question is who will change America and who will deliver results for America? Who can, on January 20th 2009, walk into the Oval Office, begin turning the economy around, be the commander in chief to bring our troops home safely and responsibly and get our country moving once again into the future with confidence and optimism."

    Clinton's voice was weak and she joked: "It is clear from my voice that I've been talking a lot, but there's a lot to say, because there's so much at stake in this election."

    She spoke for about 20 minutes and then answered audience questions on NAFTA, Iraq, ending "Don't Ask, Don't Tell", helping retired workers, global warming, No Child Left Behind and other issues

    One woman sparked amusement and applause in the crowd when she stood and called Bush a bastard. She went on to say that in 2005, the president reached an agreement that would join America, Canada and Mexico together by 2010 to create a single country. Clinton, who stood smiling as the woman asked her question, said the story was a myth. 

    "I've heard that story and there's not a lot of truth to it. So let me put your mind at rest. There were agreements signed to increase cooperation among our three countries, but so far as I know, there is no such agreement. Now, when I'm president, if I discover there is such an agreement, it'll be gone in a bird dog minute," she said to applause.

    Another woman said she felt Clinton would make the best person to lead the country but was "just really scared" about her electability.

    "It's always better to vote for the person you think would be the best president, because in the cauldron of a campaign, I think that's the most important factor. If you think that I would be the best president, you have to believe that I can demonstrate that to the rest of the country," Clinton said, before going on to talk about the election wins in New York, having been tested and her ability to work across the aisle.  

    She ended with what seems to be her new favorite line about how it takes a Clinton to clean up after a Bush. It was a winner at the LA debate. It would also seem to play handily into her rival's past versus future argument for choosing him instead.

  • Obama's Super ad buy

    From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
    In eye-popping ad buy, the Obama campaign will air ads in 24 states during the Super Bowl tonight.

    Traditionally the most expensive time to purchase ads, the campaign will air ads in states holding a Democratic primary or caucus on the 5th, 9th, 10th and 12th.

    The ad, which features a personalized message from Obama, has him deliver a short appeal that tells audiences that "the world as it is is not the world as it should be."

    The buy reflects the considerable financial strength the campaign has entering Super Tuesday. The campaign raised $32 million dollars in January alone.

    The RNC responds to the ad buy: "Obama's 'save-the-world' ad will play as well during this year's super bowl as his Bears did in last year's. His message may appeal to niche audiences at left-wing campuses and Kennedy family reunions, but it won't score with mass audiences like the Super Bowl."

  • Romney on Super Tuesday, Tom Brady

    From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
    GLEN ELLYN, Ill. -- Romney is fired up and charging ahead with his delegate pick-up strategy, despite polling in states that he thinks are good territory for him increasingly showing McCain in the lead.

    Asked in a session with reporters why he was campaigning in Illinois now that he's 20 points behind the Arizona senator, he came back with a look like he knew something no one else did and said, "Ahh, because I think I'm gonna get delegates."

    Given the opportunity to attack McCain, he piled on. His opening remarks to reporters here after a rally included that he "was impressed that yesterday Barack Obama said that Sen. McCain's position on illegal immigration was virtually indistinguishable from his." And he went on to reiterate as he's done over the past few days that he'd be the choice more in line with the GOP's views.

    During the rally, Romney - who inadvertently added to his stump a call-and-response in Michigan about things Washington politicians (code: McCain) have promised that returns a "They haven't!" from the crowd - threw in another set here today. He asked the crowd if they wanted their party to be led by a man - McCain - who has supported a handful of measures he says are backed by Democrats and was met with a series of resounding "No!"s by the audience.

    The several hundred energetic supporters there even booed Obama at a mention of him as "a certain senator from this state who says he'd bring change to America."

    Like Obama, McCain will also spend time in Massachusetts before Tuesday and is there today, but Romney said of the elder senator that he's just not sure why he's campaigning there. He added that he expects he'll win the Bay State and almost scolded McCain for trying: "For me, this is not about trying to tweak somebody or get in their head." And later on the plane he said, "I don't try to psychoanalyze my competition."

    But Romney did take one pass on attacking McCain - when asked if he had any comments about charges reported by the New York Times of an improper relationship between the senator and lobbyist, Romney said only: "I have no information about that whatsoever and so don't have any comment on it.  Not familiar with the circumstances at all."  

    One other thing Romney didn't have a whole heck of a lot to say about to reporters? The Super Bowl, in which his hometown Patriots are playing tonight. He was ambushed by reporters later on the plane and said, "This could be close, and I don't like close games." He said he hoped for a blowout but said he probably wouldn't be calling Sen. Clinton if the Giants won. He said he had anticipated a bet with Giuliani but that they never got around to it.  

    He also clarified something he had said earlier about Tom Brady - that he e-mailed a good luck note to the football star yesterday. He said Brady returned the wishes, and then asked how Romney got the address, the more light-hearted candidate joked with reporters and laughed, "I have everyone's e-mail address."

  • Obama claims Wellstone's legacy

    From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
    MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. -- It was a line that could capture almost any Democratic heart.

    "When
    I first got to the US Senate, I opened up the drawer of the desk where
    I was assigned. And it has the names of some of the great senators who
    have served.  They carve their names in their own hand into the desk
    drawer, and one of those names was somebody who shared with me this
    belief that change doesn't happen from the top down. A guy named Paul
    Wellstone..." Barack Obama told the crowd at the Target Center in
    Minneapolis yesterday.

    Wellstone is a beloved figure of the
    Democratic party, but in Minnesota the late senator's home state, the
    line resonated among the crowd, who cheered heartily at the mention.

    Speaking
    to a crowd of 18,000 plus at the Target Center here, where Wellstone's
    memorial service was held, Obama cast his own movement for change as
    part of the what Wellstone did to energize a liberal electorate across
    the country.

    "… a guy who helped to create a movement
    here in Minnesota, because he believed in you the way I believe in you.
    And this is part of that movement of change all throughout America,"
    Obama said.

    Obama also praised John Edwards as part of the Wellstone tradition.

    "We
    have had some outstanding candidates. Just this past week, John Edwards
    decided to get out of the race, but John ran an outstanding race - he
    elevated poverty, talked about the working class. He was true to the
    Paul Wellstone tradition."

    A liberal electorate in a
    progressive state, Minnesota has long been billed as a win by  Obama's
    campaign, and the mention of Paul Wellstone certainly won't hurt
    Obama's chances in this state. A small peek into the campaign's
    organizational efforts was seen by Obama pulling out a caucus supporter
    card, something he hasn't done since leaving the first four early
    states where his campaign had large operations.  He reminded the crowd
    that they need to caucus on Tuesday, and urged them to sign up and let
    his campaign know if they were definitely supporting him.

    The
    crowd at the Target center was packed to the rafters, and Obama had
    brought the entire audience to its feet by the end of his speech.  He
    dwelled on the power of his "movement" a word he has been using more
    frequently, and lauded the youth participation that put him over the
    top in Iowa. He told the crowd that despite the pundits' cyncicism, the
    participation of voters under 30 matched that of voters over 60
    years of age, a first in American history.

    He touted his
    fundraising operation, telling the crowd that the campaign had 170,000
    new donors in January. He didn't mention how much they had raised
    however, a whopping $32 million that puts a serious question mark on
    any "underdog" status that Obama might claim.

    But he
    reminded the crowd in Minneapolis that he does face a formidable
    opponent and many were taken aback that after winning Iowa, he didn't
    sweep to a win in New Hampshire.

    "You see people thought
    you win one election and suddenly the status quo gives in.  You know,
    elect Barack, immediately we'll have racial reconiciliation, poverty
    will be over and you know nobody will argue anymore and teenage
    children will listen to you," he joked, adding, "And so it was useful to us to recognize that this isn't easy."

  • Romney talks about way forward

    From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
    MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. -- Following lunch aboard the Romney plane from Salt Lake
    City to Minneapolis yesterday, Romney's spokesman said he was coming back just to
    chat – meaning not have a press avail.

    Passing the time
    with reporters is reportedly something McCain does well, and given his
    success as a media darling and now in the nomination process, it's no
    surprise that the Romney team thought it might be a boon to take a page
    from that playbook. But given the rarity of the occurrence -- even
    though reporters have been pushing aides that he think about doing it
    -- a gaggle is exactly what ensued as every reporter on the plane
    rushed him with recorders and cameras when he started walking down the
    aisle.

    He began by chatting about the service and how he
    was happy to have a few of his family members with him, but the
    discussion turned to what Romney really thinks of his prospects given
    the uphill battle he has to climb on Feb. 5 and beyond.

    Reiterating
    what he put forth yesterday, he said, "I don't think somebody is going
    to walk away with the needed numbers. I think this thing goes on well
    beyond Tuesday." He added, "I haven't looked thoroughly at the calendar
    beyond Tuesday, but I know there is one. And I intend to keep on
    battling. That's my plan."

    But Romney also gave a little
    bit with lines like "I mean my life is my family" and "The Olympics was
    really a high point." He acknowledged that he's read articles that have
    asserted he'd do anything to be president but said "that's the furthest
    thing from the truth."

    Romney also addressed the
    religious service (funeral for former LDS President Gordon Hinckley) and mentioned some of the political figures who were
    there but declined to wax philosophical on the politics. He said he
    went to a viewing with the Hinckley family ahead of time and talked
    about who in the family he knew and saw, "but no political thoughts."

    While
    reminding that there are a handful of successful political figures in
    Washington who are members of the LDS church, the event again shines a
    light on Romney's Mormon faith -- which instead has been somewhat of a
    bane to him - at what may be a very inconvenient time. But at the same
    time, the funeral takes a shred of secrecy away from the faith that
    Romney has insisted to keep so far from the public eye, for as he's
    said many times before, he's "running for commander in chief, not
    pastor in chief." Still, as he continued to do today, he took a pass on
    politicizing his religion in any way by refusing to use the fact that a
    handful of U.S. senators are Mormon and have had no trouble getting
    into office.

    Still, Romney's willingness to give a few
    details about the funeral and what it means to him also may give a
    personal element to a candidate who's been blasted for being both
    inauthentic and robotic. He honored and praised Hinckley at pre-dawn
    session with reporters in Florida on Monday just moments after waking
    up and learning of the death. And though Romney has long been hesitant
    to lavish many details on anything relating to his faith, he gave a few
    specific compliments to the deceased religious leader.

  • Clinton talks Super Bowl, Super Tuesday

    From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
    EN ROUTE FROM LOS
    ANGELES TO TUCSON, Feb. 2 -- Surprise, surprise. Hillary
    Clinton is pulling for the New York team on Super Bowl Sunday -- and on
    Super Tuesday.

    In regard to the contests, the senator said she was "expecting the New York team to win both." Clinton spoke to the press, squeezed into the aisle of the plane in
    a media avail that proved to be a logistical nightmare. Reporters
    leaned over seats and stood stradding the aisle straining to hear the
    senator speak and to make sense of the barely audible questions being
    posed to her.

    Otherwise there was no real news. Clinton
    repeated her dig on McCain wanting to stay in Iraq -- a criticism she
    lodged at a rally this morning at Cal State -- and said again that
    voters don't have to take a leap of faith with her and that she's been
    very specific about what she plans to do as president.

    She also
    said Democrats would have a stronger argument in a debate with McCain
    if they nominate a candidate whose goal is universal healthcare.

  • Clinton responds on Kazakh issue

    From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
         ST. LOUIS, MO, Feb. 3 -- In an interview this morning on Fox, Hillary Clinton sought to "set the record straight" -- in her words -- about a New York Times report that linked her husband to a Canandian financier.
         The paper reported last week that Bill Clinton helped Frank Giustra close a lucrative uranium mining deal while on a philanthropic trip to the former Soviet Republic of Kazakhstan and that Giustra later donated $31 million to the former president's foundation and pledged to donate even more.  
         When asked whether as president she would tell her husband to "knock off those kinds of dealings", the New York senator said the description of what had occured was inaccurate.
          "He went to Kazakhstan to sign an agreement with the government to provide low cost drugs for HIV/AIDS, a growing problem in Central Asia. While he was there he met with opposition leaders and certainly spoke out about the hopes that we have to have a good relationship with that country," Clinton said.
          The senator said she had been on record for many years as against the country's anti-Democratic government and had called for changes.
         "So I think that it's clear that I will stand on my own two feet. I will say what I believe and I will be a president who pursues policies that I believe will be in the best interest of our country," she said.
          In an odd response to a follow-up question about her husband praising the Kazakh leader, Nursultan A. Nazarbayev, who has led the country for 19 years, and suggesting he could lead an international election-monitoring organization, despite her coming out against his anti-Democratic government, Clinton noted that Dick Cheney had also gone to the country to praise its regime.
         She went on to explain that she believed in using carrots and sticks in diplomacy and said these difficult issues required "seasoned leadership", especially in dealing with a region where the United States has many interests, from natural resources to fighting extremism.

  • Obama's word play

    From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
    Lately Obama has been pulling from a very colloquial lexicon, riling up his audiences to words like "okie doke," "bamboozle," and "hoodwink."

    They're always given in context of what his opponents are trying to do to his record.

    "They're trying to bamboozle you. Hoodwink you! That's what they call the okie doke!" and "They're trying to okie doke you," Obama says regularly at events.  

    Note the usage of "okie doke" as both a noun and a verb.  

    Last night in St. Louis, there was a new word for the crowd and the press corps to learn.

    "Don't let 'em hornswoggle you," Obama shouted out.  The acoustics of the stadium left many of us reporting on him scratching our heads. Did he say "Cornswaggler?" "Hornswaggle?"

    A little bit of Googling came up with the right answer, and a definition: "to swindle, cheat, hoodwink or hoax."  Popular synonyms include bamboozle, baffle, befuddle, confound, delude, dupe, and my favorite – flimflam. It's antonym is "to be forthright."

    And if the Senator could please note, it's a verb not a noun.

  • Romney wins Maine caucus poll

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    Romney won Maine's nonbinding presidential preference poll, 53%-22% over McCain. Ron Paul finished third with 19%; Huckabee was fourth with 5%. The voting took place at caucuses Friday and Saturday; the results were announced last night by the Maine Republican Party.

    The nonbinding poll will be used as an indicator at the May 3rd state convention to select the state's 21, also unbound, delegates to the national convention.

    Maine's caucuses, at 413 municipal caucuses, began Friday and continue through today, though the straw poll announcement was made last night because very few caucuses take place today. The Patriots are in the Super Bowl, after all, the state party explained.

    Those 21 delegates (plus 19 alternates) are selected at the state convention from about 3,000-plus municipal delegates, who are selected this weekend.

    At the state convention, those delegates will all agree (or not) to vote for the same person at national as selected in the straw poll. But if there's a strong contingent of delegates who are for Romney and a strong contingent for another candidate, then they could go to the national convention with a split delegation.

  • Super Bowl Sunday Thoughts: Polls Galore

    From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
    Super Bowl Sunday is all about odds and numbers so what better way to celebrate the  Sunday before Super Tuesday with poll numbers... LOTS OF THEM: dig in!

    *** Polls, Polls, Polls: Not surprisingly, the Sunday before Super Tuesday is like manna from heaven for poll junkies. The biggest crop comes from us: MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon surveyed five states (Ariz., Calif., Ga., Mo. and N.J.).   Here's the big picture on the Democratic side: Clinton has single digit leads in four of the five states, with her biggest lead being 9 points in California; her smallest  lead is 2 points in Arizona. (Clinton's lead in Missouri is 6 points and 7 points in  N.J.) Obama leads only in Georgia, 47-41. Nobody is over 50% in any of the polls meaning nothing seems done. Most importantly, because of the way the Democratic party  distributes delegates, these results seem to indicate that the likelihood of a split delegate decision is very high. We've already done one estimate that had both Clinton  and Obama securing 800+ delegates out of the 1600+ available. With just two candidates left making threshold, everything could be divided right in half.

    *** Some Dem Details: Not surprisingly, there's a major gender gap in just about every state; For instance, in Missouri, Obama leads among men by 6 points; trails by double-digits among women. In Arizona, the gender gap is even MORE pronounced, with Obama leading men by 21 points and Clinton leading women by 10 points. California and  New Jersey are similar stories: Obama with a small lead among men, Clinton with a big  lead among women. Also of note, Obama does better among white voters in Arizona, New  Jersey and California than he does in Georgia and Missouri. As many veterans of Missouri politics know, the state looks more Southern in this Dem primary than Midwestern. Clinton's winning Missourah; Obama's winning Missouri. Besides gender,  there is also a generational gap, with Obama doing well with voters under 50 and  Clinton doing well with voters over 50. As for the ethnic divides, all of the polls look like the exit polls (i.e. Obama winning blacks 4-1 and Clinton winning Hispanics  4-1) with one exception: Arizona. In that state, Obama leads among Hispanics. This is  perhaps the most surprising result of all of our polls; Arizona, unlike many other  states, have a lot of 3rd and 4th generation Hispanics that don't vote like Hispanics in other states. Still, to be leading among Hispanics in Arizona was a real surprise.

    *** As for the Republicans: We surveyed four states (Calif., Ga., Mo. and N.J.). John  McCain led in all of them, with Georgia being the most competitive. McCain's lead  in Ga. was just 6 points over Romney, 33-27, with Huckabee at 18%. In Calif., McCain's  lead was also single digits, 40% to Romney's 31% and Huckabee's 13%. In New Jersey,  McCain's lead is 15 points in New Jersey, 46-31% with Huckabee at 5%. And then there's Missouri, the  only state we polled that doesn't have Romney in second, but Huckabee. For what it's  worth, McCain does not get over 50% in any state though he's close in New Jersey  (which is clearly a base state for him).

    *** Some GOP Details: Interestingly, in Missouri, despite the fact that Mike Huckabee  sports the highest FAV rating among the three major GOPers, McCain has the 10 point  lead, 37-27 over Huckabee with Romney at 24%. There may not be a better example of how  Huckabee helps McCain than in Missouri (a winner-take-all delegate state). Huckabee  and Romney, combined, are over 50%. In all four states where we polled Republicans,  the biggest demographic gap was in age. McCain, like he has in South Carolina and  Florida, has over-performed among voters over 50, while Romney's kept it much closer  with younger Republicans. This age gap is, perhaps, what will put McCain over the top.   Also, as if we haven't presented enough evidence about the importance of Huckabee for  McCain, when we ask Republicans about which attributes matter most in deciding who  they support, "shares my values" topped "strength and leadership" in Georgia and  Missouri and McCain didn't score well in the "shares my values" category. But because  Huckabee scores well there (even better than Romney), it doesn't seem to hurt McCain  in the ballot test. In California and New Jersey, "strength and leadership" topped  "shares my values," which may explain McCain's larger leads in those two states.

    *** There Are Other Polls: Two national polls out this morning show a close Democratic  race and a growing McCain lead. A Wash. Post-ABC poll has Clinton leading Obama,  nationally, 47-43; On the GOP side, McCain leads big, 48% to Romney's 24% and  Huckabee's 16%. In the Gallup tracking, Clinton expanded her lead over three straight  days of seeing it drop which means this most recent day of tracking had to show a  MAJOR Clinton spike. She now leads 48-41, after leading just 44-41 the day before. On  the GOP side, McCain has a similar lead in Gallup as he does in the Post/ABC, 44-24%.

    *** And In The States: A few other state polls to point out: A new California Field poll has the Dem race just two points, 36-34% with a sky-high undecided number. In  Alabama, a Tuscaloosa News poll has Obama leading Clinton 44-37% and McCain leading  38-26-15 over Huckabee and Romney respectively. A Chicago Tribune poll in Illinois has  Obama leading Clinton 55-24% and McCain over Romney 43-20%. A Marist poll in New York has Clinton leading 54-38% and McCain over Romney, 61-24%. Taking Illinois and New York together, do these poll results foretell the possibility that Obama does better  in New York than Clinton does in Illinois?  Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby is polling in a number of states: Zogby has Obama and Romney leading in California; Clinton and McCain ahead in Missouri; Obama ahead big in Georgia; McCain ahead big in New York and New Jersey; and Clinton and Obama in a dead heat in New Jersey.

    *** On The Trail: Clinton campaigns in Bridgeton, Mo. and Minneapolis, Minn.; Obama has a rally in Wilmington, Del. in the afternoon; Huckabee camps out in Ga. with four stops including Kennesaw, Woodstock and Macon; McCain hits Chris Shays' district in Conn. (Fairfield) and does Boston in the afternoon; Romney has a rally in Chicago early in the day and in St. Louis just before the start of the Super Bowl; Bill Clinton visits black churches all over L.A. today before watching the Super Bowl with Bill Richardson in New Mexico. And Michelle Obama appears with Oprah and Caroline Kennedy at a rally in L.A. on UCLA's campus.
     
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  • Bill Clinton discounting Huckabee

    From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
    COLUMBIA, MO -- Just how relevant is one-time frontrunner Mike Huckabee's campaign anymore? Apparently not enough for any love from Hope homeboy Bill Clinton. The former president's assessment of the race for the White House includes four remaining contenders - not five - which means that Clinton's counting out his fellow Arkansan.

    "There are four people left running for president," Clinton said during a rally at the University of Missouri tonight. "Two Democrats and two Republicans."

    No spot for Huck, who is hoping to stay alive through good showings in states like Missouri and Alabama - where the former president stumped today -  as well as the home state where both launched their political careers.

    Clinton went on to note that his wife is  the only of the four candidates " by everyone's admission"  to offer a plan for universal health care.

    In the eyes of the Comeback Kid, in other words, it sure  sounds like Huck is Hope-less.

  • Obama attracts 20,000 in St. Louis

    From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
    St. Louis, MO -- Barack Obama returned to the Show Me State Saturday night, holding a late night rally in St. Louis as part of a west and midwestern barnstorm that lead him from Idaho to Minnesota to Missouri.

    Speaking to a crowd estimated at around 20,000 people, Obama went through his stump speech, stressing his opposition to the Iraq War and its affect on families and going through the details of his economic policies. He ran through a series of attacks against him and received cheers for saying he had been "praising Jesus" for twenty years at the same church.

    Obama also had a new line on children, telling the crowd that the whether it's rural America or urban America, caring for America's children was a universal responsibility.  It worked well with his campaign themes and helped add a maternal side that could help him with women voters.

    Obama was introduced by Senator Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) who took an unnamed swipe at the Clinton campaign.   

    "This campaign didn't start in a back room," McCaskill said, adding that polls and consultants weren't the generators of Obama's campaign.  She also warned the crowd that Obama may appear tired so the crowd should cheer loud enough to bolster the fatiguing candidate.

    Though the number of people who showed up was impressive much of the energy was lost in the cavernous indoor stadium where the St. Louis Rams play.  The extent of the crowd, packed onto a floor that on other occasions serves as a football field, could only be seen from standing in the bleachers. The majority of the space was empty, and the sound of Obama's voice and the cheers of the crowd sounded more like distant echoes than fiery and thunderous call for change just two days before a crucial election.

  • Ethel Kennedy backs Obama

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    As everyone knows by now, the Kennedy clan is divided in the race for the Democratic nomination. Ted Kennedy, his son Patrick Kennedy, and Caroline Kennedy support Obama; Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, Robert Kennedy Jr, and Kerry Kennedy are for Clinton.

    Now Ethel Kennedy, wife to the late Robert Kennedy weighs in -- for Obama. "Over these past few years, I've watched Senator Obama inspire Americans from all walks of life to believe in real change and a new sense of hope and possibility. He's a magnetic force, drawing the nation together for the common good and galvanizing us all to help shape our country's future," she said in a statement released by the Obama campaign. 

    "Barack is so like Bobby, who struggled for the rights of the poor in the Mississippi Delta and Appalachia, traveled to California to stand in solidarity with Cesar Chavez and farm workers, and fought to end another war that cost so many lives. Today, we crave a leader with vision who can help us regain our lost humanity and rekindle our inherent generosity. With courage, caring, and charisma, Senator Obama is leading us toward a kinder, gentler world." 

  • Romney attends Hinckley services

    From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
    SALT LAKE CITY -- Just four days before the potentially fate-determining Super Tuesday, the eager national press at long last got to catch a glimpse of Mitt Romney in his religious element.

    He's working his way East after beginning his post-Florida to Feb. 5 swing in California on Wednesday, but he backtracked and flew West to Salt Lake City from Denver after a rally there last night in order to attend the funeral services of Mormon President Gordon B. Hinckley this morning.

    Of course, the presidential hopeful kept himself at bay so as not to distract from the sobriety of the event. And in a room that seats 21,000, his second-row seat was not easy to spot save for a cautious TV camera. However, he was seated near fellow politically active Mormons in Sens. Harry Reid of Nevada, Bob Bennett, and Orrin Hatch of Utah; Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and Health; and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt. Leavitt was recognized at the beginning of the service for "representing President Bush," who, together with first Lady Laura Bush, sent condolences to the church this week.

  • Obama stops in red Idaho

    From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
    BOISE, ID -- Geography. So important yet so pesky, especially when you're a presidential candidate hitting between two to three states a day. Obama, perhaps tired from all the campaigning, told the crowd here not to trust "the rumors that have been trickling up to Iowa" about him.

    Too bad he was in Idaho. He caught the mistake quickly. "And Idaho," he added in a heartbeat. "I know they trickled up to Iowa. I don't know if they trickled up to Idaho."

    Running through a list of smears that are circulating about him, Obama also threw in that people are claiming that he's against the 2nd Amendment. "And then there are people who say I don't believe in the 2nd Amendment, though I come from a state... We got lot of hunters in the state of Illinois, and I have no intention of taking away folks' guns."

    That comment reflects the bright red hue that Idaho is usually associated with, and the surprise that nearly 15,000 cheering people could show up for a Democratic candidate on an early Saturday morning at the Taco Bell Arena at Boise State University.

    Obama, taken aback by the crowd, joked when he came on stage, "I thought they said there weren't any Democrats in Idaho!"

    There are only 18 pledged delegates to be had in Idaho, but the campaign's goal in coming here is two fold. First in the scramble for delegates, even 18 can make a difference.  "We think every delegate counts, and it all ads up. If we do well in Idaho and Minnesota and Georgia, it's all delegates... It all adds up," Obama spokeswoman Jen Psaki said.

    But she added that there was the pictorial message that the campaign wished to convey on February 6th as well -- that the campaign could win in diametrically opposed I-states like Idaho and Illinois, and also Georgia and Arizona and Minnesota, demonstrating that Obama is a candidate that could do well with a cross-section of the country.
     
    Obama was introduced by former Democratic Gov. Cecil Andrus, who said he was the "guardian of their hopes" for the future.

  • Harry and Louise return?

     

    From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
    Obama likes to tell voters on the stump that when he's president, if the health care lobbyists and the drug companies try to run "Harry and Louise" ads against his attempt to pass universal health care, he'll use his own campaign funds to run his own ads.
     
    "And I'll tell Harry and Louise they're wrong," Obama has said at countless town halls.

    But is he adopting Harry-and-Louise-type tactics? A new Obama campaign mailer eerily evokes the fictional couple that torpedoed universal health care in 1993. In the Harry and Louise ads of the past, a middle American couple stood around their kitchen discussing their worries that the government would control their healthcare -- what doctors they could see, how much they would pay, whether quality would go down and bureaucracy go up.

    In the Obama mailer, there's a picture of an American couple, sitting at the kitchen table, with frowns on their faces as they appear to be looking at bills. The headline on the mailing reads: "Hillary's health-care plan forces everyone to buy insurance, even if you can't afford it."

    Its second part shows a smiling Clinton and repeats the line from above and adds the phrase, "and you pay a penalty if you don't." It adds, "The way Hillary Clinton's health-care plan covers everyone is to have the government force uninsured people to buy insurance, even if they can't afford it."

    The argument here, of course, is over the importance of mandates versus not having them, and Obama has repeatedly said on the stump that Americans want to buy insurance if its affordable. Clinton, meanwhile, has not specified how she would enforce her mandates -- whether it be through a paying a penalty like in Massachusetts, or some other way. She has often said that she will allow Congress to work out the details.

    David Axelrod, a senior Obama strategist for the Obama contends that the campaign is not dredging up the ghosts of Harry and Louise. "[Clinton's] playing a shell game," Axelrod said. "She knows she has to have a penalty to enforce mandates. How else do you have a mandate?" 

    Axelrod added that the subsidies that are in both Clinton's and Obama's plans are the same, and her claim that he would leave out 15 million insurers would be the same in her plan should she not include some kind of penalty.  

    This mailer comes after the Obama campaign cried foul over mailings the Clinton camp sent questioning Obama's record on abortion (over his "present' votes in the Illinois legislature) and Social Security (over his proposal to raise the cap on taxable Social Security income for those making more than $200,00 a year)

    The Clinton campaign held a conference call with reporters to rebut the mailing. Yet as the Politico's Ben Smith reported, Clinton surrogate Len Nichols of the New America Foundation compared the mailer to the Nazis marching through Illinois, a bizarre reference that was quickly disavowed by Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson at the end of the call.

  • McCain: GOP race could be over Tue.

    From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
    McCain held a lengthy press conference on the plane somewhere between St. Louis and Chicago last night. He addressed his need to unite the Republican Party by improving his standing amongst conservatives, and he also said that he believes there's a good chance the race could be over on Tuesday.

    "From what we see in the polls I think that there's a very good chance that it will be over on Tuesday. But I think there's still a lot of undivided -- undecided voters, but I'm hoping that we can, we can -- the sooner I get that done, the sooner I can go to work on uniting the party."

    Talking about courting conservatives, McCain said: "We'll be talking to them. We'll be going to their gatherings. We'll be talking to them and emphasizing my conservative credentials. And there's one other factor. The reason we are doing so well with conservatives outside of some of those very visible people is because they think the transcendent challenge is radical Islamic extremists and I think I can prove to them that I can keep America safe."

    He added, "Now there are some others who obviously don't feel that's there priority, but I don't think we could have won the Florida primary, which was a Republican primary, without getting a significant number of conservative voters. And also finally, I think maybe when they look at the opposition, I may be a little more attractive."

    On uniting the party, he said: "We'd like to have everybody on board. We'd like to have a totally united party, but I also realize that there are some people that just may not be able to support me at the end of the day and I understand that. But I've got to work hard to get as much of the party as I can, because we've got an uphill battle for November. I know that."

    On Romney's attacks: "I think that in the last few days the only thing left they haven't tried to hit me with is the kitchen sink. It's remarkable.

    And on Obama's recent digs at McCain: "Without in anyway denigrating or in any way being critical of Senator Obama, who I have great respect for, it's [his stance on the war] a product of his inexperience and we'll be highlighting that and inexperience, lack of knowledge of national security issues, could only lead one to the conclusion that you would have immediate withdrawal from Iraq."

  • Bill makes yet another dig at Ted

    From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
    TEXARKANA, AR -- At a campaign stop yesterday afternoon in former president Bill Clinton's home state, the consequences of a run-and-gun campaign schedule were evident. The event, held at Arkansas High School here was one part raucous and one part chaos. Over 350 people -- many of them fidgety students eager to catch a glimpse of the president -- crowded into a lunchroom-made-auditorium to hear him stump for his wife. A characteristically late arrival, combined with faulty microphones and rowdy students who anxiously waited him, gave the event a pep rally feel. 

    In his remarks, Clinton stuck to his general pitch for his wife's experience and leadership, although he did throw in a quick dig at Obama endorser Ted Kennedy -- the second time he has done so since yesterday. 

    After the rally, though, he did surprise students -- and, it appeared, some of his staff -- by moseying around the lot where his motorcade was parked to shake hands with squealing students. Wearing a patented gee-golly smile, Clinton basked in the crush of giddy kids for a few minutes as reporters jockeyed for the rare chance to overhear a snatch of unrehearsed dialogue.

  • Hillary raises money in SF

    From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
    SAN FRANCISCO, CA -- Hillary Clinton ended a swing through delegate-rich California with a low-dollar fundraiser at the 2,200-seat Orpheum Theatre here last night. The tickets for the event cost $50, but people were free to give more.

    Clinton spoke about the importance of community. "That's what I want America to be again, to be a community where we each are doing our part to lift each other up, to see each other, to hear each other," she told the crowd.

    She said she wanted her presidency to be about the "trend lines", what is really happening in America and in people's lives and alluded to the historic nature of her and Barack Obama's candidacies by saying the debate last night showed every child in America that they could be anything they want to be.
     
    As she has in several recent speeches and as she did in the debate Thursday night, Clinton talked about having been endorsed by Iraq War critics in Congress. "I am so proud that I have been endorsed by leading members of the 'Out of Iraq' caucus now; congressional members like Lynn Woolsey and Maxine Waters and Jim McGovern and others who have said that they believe in me and know that I can make the difficult decisions to begin withdrawing our troops," she said.

    Mayors Ron Dellums (Oakland), Gavin Newsom (San Francisco), Antonio Villaraigosa (Los Angeles), speaker of the California State Assembly Fabian Nunez, activist Dolores Huerta and actors Mary Steenburgen and Ted Danson were among the featured guests.

    While the people chosen to introduce Clinton at her events often give speeches that seem longer than necessary, overly rehearsed and sound like the Cliff's Notes version of the senator's stump speech, the messages delivered last sounded like they came from the heart.

    Dellums spoke powerfully about why he supported Clinton, saying he had come to his decision after extensive research on the candidates' ideas about how to help America's urban centers. "I read a quote that was so powerful that it brought tears to my eyes and I went into my bedroom and I said to my wife, 'Listen to this quote.' The quote said, 'Our continued acceptance of racial disparities in health care, in education and in economics is intolerable, unacceptable and un-American. What a powerful statement," he said. "That statement was made by Sen. Clinton."
     
    Newsom talked about the need to not just support the New York senator, but to show up at the polls Tuesday. Danson called Clinton a "beautiful woman" that he wanted to represent him around the world. Steenburgen referred to Clinton as an icon and said she had been inspired by watching the senator be a mother, a daughter, a wife, First Lady and senator. She said that Clinton was a "world-class listener" and talked about what she was "really like." 

    "Her belly laugh is more raucous and dirty than mine and that's saying something and she loves, loves, loves it when you make her laugh," she said. "She does get tired and sad and hurt, but she's more able to pick herself up and dust herself off and start all over again than anybody else I know."

    Steenburgen went on to list the Republicans Clinton had worked with, noting that Strom Thurmond even brought her candy bars "for crying out loud."

    The audience was overwhelmingly white and while most seats were filled, there were a few dozen empty ones in the upper balcony (there were two balconies).

  • Obama's play for New Mexico

    From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
    New Mexico might be a Feb. 5 state to watch for Obama. The candidate made two stops in the state on Friday, in Albuquerque and Santa Fe -- an unusual amount of time to spend in just one state when the sand slips ever faster through the hourglass to Super Tuesday.

    But New Mexico appears to be a key pick-up opportunity for Obama, who has six offices spread across the state. The campaign has shifted their Iowa get-out-the-caucus model to the several Feb. 5 states -- like New Mexico -- that will hold caucuses rather than primaries. The hope is that organizational strength can overpower Clinton's name recognition in these states. (It's worth noting, however, that while New Mexico is a technically a caucus, it operates more like a primary than the caucuses we saw in Iowa and Nevada.) 

    Obama also has claimed that once Latinos, who make up 40% of New Mexico's population, get to know him, they'll prefer his record over Clinton's. That could explain yesterday's economic policy town hall, where Obama delved deeper into policy issues than he normally does, while also bringing an array of his economic advisers and New Mexico co-chairs up on the stage with him to testify to his prowess on managing the economic downturn. Obama told the crowd that he was the first candidate in the race to offer a middle-class tax cut and he compared Hillary Clinton's economic stimulus plan to George Bush's, because it had originally not contained a tax cut for working families. 

    Using the subprime mortgage crisis to appeal to the Latino and African American population in the state, Obama told them that of the mortgages defaulted on, 40% were by Latino homeowners and more than 50% were owned by African Americans. He used the statistic to remind the audience that his stimulus plan contains a proposal to create a fund that will buy the mortgages of homeowners who were the target of predatory lenders.

    At a rally in Santa Fe later in the day, Obama also hit economic themes but mostly stuck to his stump speech. The crowd there, despite New Mexico being a majority minority state, was largely white. And in an appeal that you don't usually hear of on the stump, Obama met with the leaders of more than ten Native American tribes before he began his event. Obama has a long list of Native American supporters in the state, and made a point to mention poverty in their communities in his stump speech.

    Like in Iowa, reaching out to smaller niche groups could make a difference for Obama. Though Native Americans make up only 10% of the state's population, the proportional allocation of delegates should Obama win caucuses in Native American areas could help his delegate total. As the Senator said in a press conference today, "This is increasingly a race for delegates."

    There's no better proof that this race is about delegates than the fact that I'm writing this dispatch from Boise, ID, where there are 12 delegates up for grabs. The Obama campaign was willing to fly two and a half hours from Albuquerque to Boise and spend the morning here doing a rally in the hopes of picking up delegates... And yet there was just one event in California...

  • Silent protest at Clinton rally

    From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
    SAN DIEGO, CA -- About 40 minutes into a speech Clinton was delivering in front of a huge crowd at San Diego State University, two young men stood up and unfurled a red banner that read: "Nepotist tyrant hands off Iran", with the senator's picture attached to the middle.

    The men had been seated behind Clinton -- and directly across from the press riser -- as she spoke and she had her back to them the entire time they were standing. She never turned their way and it was unclear whether she was aware they were there.

    The students stood for several minutes as a handful of Clinton supporters came up each side of the aisle to talk to them. Eventually, a man wearing a yellow SMART union for Hillary T-shirt snatched the banner from the men. The crowd cheered.

    The senator did not take questions after the event.

    Clinton has been criticized for her vote to call the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization, which she has repeatedly said was not a vote to authorize force.

  • Gloria Molina backs Clinton

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    We've reported on a few Obama endorsements today. But Clinton has picked up a pretty significant one herself: Los Angeles County Supervisor Gloria Molina, a former Richardson supporter.

    Earlier last month, after Richardson dropped out, we said to get to know Molina's name, that she would be a key indication of how other Richardson backers -- and the Latino vote California -- could break. So this is a pretty big coup for Team Clinton.

  • Obama spoiling for fight with McCain

    From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
    ALBUQUERQUE, NM -- Just whom is Obama running against? One would think when you look at his chief political target of late, Obama appears to be spoiling for a fight with McCain -- already jumping ahead to the general election.

    Ever since McCain's win in Florida, Obama mentions the Arizona senator nearly every day, alternately praising him (e.g., he stood with him to fight for immigration reform), or criticizing him (on taxes and the Iraq war) as he did at least night's debate.

    Speaking on the importance of fiscal responsibility Obama today said the following about McCain: "Now there was a time when some Republicans like John McCain agreed with me on this. There was a time when Senator McCain courageously defied the fiscal madness of tax cuts for the wealthy in the midst of a costly war. But that was before he started running for the Republican nomination and fell in line. And now he like all the Republican nominees want to make permanent the tax cuts that he once denounced. Well, I have not changed my mind and the Bush policies have been a disaster for America. And I will end them when I'm president of the United States of America."

    Earlier today at a press conference, Obama said that he was the best candidate to go head to head with McCain in a general election because he provided a clear contrast with him on the Iraq war. Also, he argued that independents would break for him despite McCain's appeal, because they were predisposed towards Democrats in this election. And he claimed that although McCain is still appealing, his recent alliance with President Bush would hurt him.

    "The fact is that he has tethered himself to Bush policies both foreign and domestic, and I think Americans, particularly independents, are looking for a different approach," Obama said.

    Obama, who also holds strong appeal among independents, appears to be trying to make that case with independents right now, partly because he's looking ahead to the general but maybe also because of Super Tuesday, when both McCain and Obama will be banking on that independent vote (in some states) to give them an edge over their rivals.

  • The Maine event

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    Underway in Maine, from today through Sunday, are its 413 Republican municipal caucuses. At the end of each meeting, voters will indicate their preference in a straw poll, with which the state's delegation, for the most part, will base their voting at the national convention (though all of their 21 delegates are completely unbound).

    Even though the caucuses continue through Sunday, the Maine state GOP says it will announce the results of the straw poll Saturday night. The majority of its precincts wrap up Saturday and because the Patriots are in the Super Bowl, fewer precincts are holding caucuses on Sunday.

    Those 21 delegates (plus 19 alternates) are are whittled down from 3,000-plus municipal delegates, which are selected this weekend. They then go to the May state convention where they are narrowed to just the 40. At the state convention, they will all agree (or not) to vote for the same person at national. But if there's a strong contingent of delegates who are for McCain and a strong contingent who are for Romney, for example, then they could go to the national convention with a split delegation.

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