From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
ST. CHARLES, MO -- O'Dark Thirty isn't too early for Missouri voters. At VFW Post 2866 in conservative St. Charles County, MO, voters were lined up outside before polls opened at 6:00 am local time to cast their votes. Since doors opened two hours ago, a  steady stream of voters have braved chilly rain to cast their votes in this bellwether state's primary. Election officials estimate that over 40% of this precinct's 3,000 voters will participate in the election today. 

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
CHAPPAQUA, NY -- Hillary and Bill Clinton cast their votes near their home in Westchester County, New York this morning. Chelsea, who lives in Manhattan, accompanied them.  

The senator voted first. Afterwards, she said she felt "really good."

"It's a very humbling and overwhelming experience to cast my vote," she said, upon emerging from the booth  "It's a really extraordinary day; it's a great tribute to our country. I hope a lot of people come out and vote today. I hope everybody will take the time and trouble."

VIDEO: Sen. Hillary Clinton votes with her family this morning in Chappaqua, N.Y.

Bill cast his vote next. "It's one of the proudest moments of my life," he said, while declining to talk about his wife's chances or say much about how long the race could go.

As they left the Douglas G. Grafflin School here, Sen. Clinton was asked about her prospects today. "I am just very excited about today. I think we should encourage everybody across the country to come out and vote in this unprecedented national primary," she said, before repeating a main theme from her stump speech about how she hopes voters will choose the candidate best able to lead on Day One.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** A Super Day: It isn't always that reality lives up to the hype. But this election -- which for the last two years has been billed as the most wide open since 1928 or 1952 (take your pick) -- seems to be one of those times. And this Super Tuesday, the single biggest primary day in US history, becomes the latest chapter in most exciting primary season in our lifetimes. On the GOP side, the front-runner McCain has the opportunity tonight to pretty much lock up the Republican nomination by running the table. Or Romney could pull off several upsets, particularly in California, which would allow him to keep his White House hopes alive. Things in the Dem race aren't as clear. Looking at the narrowing polls, Obama has the opportunity that would have been unthinkable just a week ago: beat Clinton across the country, even in Clinton strongholds (CA, NJ, CT), which would pull the Democratic contest in his direction. Or Clinton could do what she did in New Hampshire: defy those polls, hold onto those strongholds, and capture some of the toss-up states (like MO and AZ). Most likely, however, Clinton and Obama will split up the delegates pretty evenly, moving the contest to Feb. 12 (DC, MD. VA), Feb. 19 (WI, WA), and March 4 (OH, TX). Obama himself predicted a "split decision" on TODAY and Morning Joe.

*** Looking for the break: But campaigns rarely deliver split decisions, and that's why it's possible that the Democratic electorate could break one way or the other. What if undecideds all go one way? And don't assume we think we know which direction they will break. We could easily explain how women power a break for Clinton, allowing her to win most states on the board today -- just as we could easily see undecideds breaking Obama and him cutting into Clinton's massive advantages among women and Hispanics thanks to a surge of younger voters that alter the makeup of electorates. The polls over the last week seem to indicate momentum is on the side of Obama, but we've all seen this movie before (think New Hampshire).

*** So many questions: Super Tuesday also has the potential to answer several other questions. One, is Clinton the de facto incumbent in this race? If she is, it's going to be a long night for her campaign since she's well under 50% in a number of states. Why does this matter? Because if she's perceived as the incumbent, look for undecideds to break decidedly to Obama. Then again, a number of us thought undecideds would break for Kerry against Bush in '04, and that didn't happen. Two, what will have a greater impact on viewers Tuesday night: racking up delegates or racking up states? As the New York Times' Nagourney writes today, "The delegate count might matter more officially, but the state results could count more politically, and that will be the central tension of the night." And three, in how many states will McCain break the 50% threshold, and should that matter? There are five primary states in particular that McCain could sweep (AL, GA, MO, OK, TN) that he'd lose if he were facing a two-way contest.

*** Romney's last stand: Michigan saved Romney at a time he needed saving politically. This time, he's asking California to do the same. Here's what Romney said last night in Long Beach, CA: "We'll look with eagerness as to what happens in California." That sounds like someone who is counting on California to send him a message.

*** The basics: A total of 24 states hold primaries or caucuses today (22 for the Democrats and 21 for the Republicans). At stake are a combined 2,600-plus delegates -- more than 80% of the total numbers of delegates needed to win the nomination in both parties. Each state awards delegates differently (winner take all, proportional by statewide vote, proportional by congressional district, or some combination of the two). But what's truly "at stake" in the voting -- and this is an important distinction to make -- are "pledged delegates," who are publicly bound in theory to a candidate at the national convention. There are numerous unpledged delegates (the "superdelegates" on the Dem side) whose arms can be twisted into changing their minds. Polls close as early as 7:00 pm ET in Georgia and close as late as 11:00 pm ET in California. (And don't forget those Alaska caucuses, which will provide results around midnight ET.)

*** How to count delegates: On the Republican side, it's VERY easy; there are enough winner-take-call states to allow anyone who did ok in high school algebra to follow along. The Democratic side is not so easy: The threshold for winning an extra delegate (from 3-3 in a six-delegate district to 4-2 to 4-3 to 5-2 in a seven-delegate district etc.) changes. Then you add in the superdelegates. The Clinton campaign claims about a 100-delegate advantage among the supers. So if she gets any delegate advantage tonight, then she'll claim a 100+ delegate lead early and often. Obviously, Obama's folks would like to win the night on the delegate front, so that Clinton's super lead is cut into the double digits. Speaking of the spin war, both the Clinton and Obama campaigns did their best yesterday to lower expectations, with Team Clinton reminding folks this could be a convention fight (can you say Florida and Michigan credential fight?) and the Obama folks reminding the media that Clinton's still the favorite tonight to win more delegates and more states. The truth? As always, somewhere in between!

*** The celebrity factor: Is there such a thing as too much celebrity help? It seems as if the rich and famous are coming out of the woodwork for Obama. Notes NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan: "Chris Rock and Scarlett Johansson recorded automated get-out-the-vote phone calls for Obama that went out yesterday, while singer Dave Matthews endorsed him on his website. Kate Michelman lent a feminist weight to his candidacy this weekend. And who can forget Oprah? These heavyweights, whether celebrities or politicians, have fanned out across the country to provide testimony to the potential of a Barack Obama candidacy." Usually, a candidate that wins the Hollywood primary doesn't always do as well in the rest of America. Obama might need to start worrying about looking too out-of-touch. Sure, the celebrities can help turn out the casual voter he's been targeting (particularly the youth), but celebrities can give a false sense of self-worth for the campaign, which is something Camp Obama may need to start worrying about.

*** On the trail: The locales for the candidates' election night parties shouldn't be surprising: Clinton is in New York City; Huckabee is in Little Rock, AR; McCain is in Phoenix; Obama is in Chicago; and Romney is in Boston. Elsewhere today, Clinton votes in Chappaqua, NY at 7:40 am ET; Huckabee attends the West Virginia GOP convention before heading back to Little Rock to vote at 3:15 pm ET; McCain holds rallies in New York City and San Diego before heading to Phoenix; and Romney attends the West Virginia GOP convention and holds a media avail in Charleston, WV before heading to Massachusetts.

Countdown to Chesapeake Tuesday: 7 days
Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 28 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 273 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 350 days

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The New York Times' primer on tonight: "Forty-three presidential nominating contests in 24 states. Channel upon channel of the commentators talking about exit polls. The biggest prize of the night -- California -- being decided well after most viewers have headed for bed. A total of 3,156 delegates allocated under arcane rules on what could be the most significant night of the 2008 campaign to date."

It's close on the Dem side. Obama said he expects a "split decision."

The Boston Globe does a little delegate math on identity politics. "The size of Obama's victory over Senator Hillary Clinton of New York among African-American voters could prove crucial to the eventual outcome of the race: If Obama wins by big margins in heavily black areas, he could gain a trove of delegates to the party's national convention that would be the equivalent of winning several small states. That is because many predominantly black congressional districts, particularly in the South and Midwest, are delegate powerhouses that will send more than twice as many representatives to the Democratic convention in August as some mostly white districts in the same state."

The last round of Reuters/C-Span/Zogby Feb. 5 tracking polls:
New Jersey: Clinton 46%, Obama 41%; McCain 53%, Romney 24%
New York: McCain 56%, Romney 20%
Georgia: Obama 49%, Clinton 29%
Missouri: Obama 45%, Clinton 42%; McCain 37%, Huck 27%, Romney 25%
California: Obama 49%, Clinton 36%; Romney 40%, McCain 33%

The Clinton campaign emails First Read this color:
*  12.2 million calls made yesterday
*  Chelsea giving out coffee and donuts at the New Haven Fired station this morning
*  Clinton did all morning shows and will be on talk radio and doing satellite interviews into Feb. 5 states for the bulk of the day
*  Clinton called into the Tom Joyner show this morning
*  More than a quarter million viewers of the national town hall last night on our website
*  Rain in OK, St. Louis, and snow in NM

Bloomberg's Julianna Goldman looks at Obama's red-state appeal. "As Democratic voters in 22 states go to the polls today, Obama's support in Republican-leaning 'Red States' will give him more ammunition to challenge Senator Hillary Clinton for a majority of the 1,681 delegates at stake, experts say. Obama … is favored to win most of the five Republican strongholds -- Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, Colorado and Kansas -- holding caucuses."

CALIFORNIA: How big was the early vote? It could be the difference between Clinton winning and losing tonight. "Although mail-in voting is expected to be a record high for a primary in California, the ballots haven't been arriving particularly early, said Weir, the Contra Costa County clerk-recorder. In all, about 4.1 million mail-in ballots are expected -- nearly half of what Weir said was the state's anticipated voter turnout. More than 1 million of the outstanding absentee ballots, Weir said, probably will be dropped off at polls or arrive in the mail today."

MASSACHUSETTS: Clinton, Obama and McCain all campaigned in the Bay State yesterday.

"Secretary of State William F. Galvin predicted that more than a million voters [in Massachusetts], more than 30 percent of the state's 4 million voters, will show up at the polls, drawn largely by the excitement spilling out of this year's elections."

The Boston Globe splashes cold water on Romney's optimism. "But today Mitt Romney, who likes to say that everything he touches turns into a success, is facing the jarring prospect of a loss in a Republican presidential race to which he devoted two years of his life and at least $35 million of his fortune."

NEW YORK: "Hillary Clinton is favored to carry her home state of New York on Super Tuesday, but Barack Obama is looking to limit the size of her victory, and her share of the 232 delegates up for grabs."

With the polls showing a tightening, the New York Post dubs Obama the "Ba-rocket."

But could today's Giants' parade hurt Obama?

Get ready for the battle for the Old Dominion -- the state that either Clinton or Romney is most likely to force a real battle with Obama and McCain, respectively.

CLINTON: One of the more under-reported campaign tactics that appears to be successful has been the ability of Clinton supporters to paint Obama as less than pro-choice. The Washington Post notes some last minute fire Obama's coming under for his Illinois abortion voting record.

The New York Times' David Brooks revisits the Jim Cooper affair, from the health-care fight from the 1990s. "I'm not a Hillary-hater. She's been an outstanding senator. She hung tough on Iraq through the dark days of 2005. In this campaign, she has soldiered on bravely even though she has most of the elected Democrats, news media and the educated class rooting against her. But there are certain moments when her dark side emerges and threatens to undo the good she is trying to achieve. Her campaign tactics before the South Carolina primary were one such moment. Another, deeper in her past, involved Jim Cooper, a Democratic congressman from Tennessee."

The New York Post plays up the disputed tears: "For cryin' out loud! Hillary turns on the tears again."

The New York Daily News said she got  "choked up in an episode remarkably similar to the emotional moment that propelled her to a win in New Hampshire."

But despite the tabloids' best efforts, the Boston Globe grounds us. "No, she didn't cry, despite early reports to the contrary. But she did show her compassionate side, and her wonky side."

Clinton was on Letterman last night. "'In my White House, we will know who wears the pantsuits,' the New York senator told the talk show host, who asked if former president Bill Clinton might return to the presidential mansion and 'be going through stuff.'"

The New York Daily News: "Bad blood between the Obamas and the Clintons seeped into public view Monday as Michelle Obama hesitated at first over whether she could support Hillary Clinton if she wins the Democratic nomination."

OBAMA: In the battle for superdelegates and key endorsements, has there been a bigger asset for Obama than Tom Daschle? Do the Clintons at all regret the relationship they didn't forge with him in the '90s and early '00s?

Is there such thing as too much celebrity help? "Oprah isn't the only one. Voters in many of the Super Tuesday states, particularly on college campuses, shouldn't be surprised to see celebrities such as Robert DeNiro, who appeared today with Obama at a New Jersey rally, Kerry Washington, Usher, Chris Rock, Brendan Routh, Kate Walsh, Kal Penn and Tate Donovan speaking on Obama's behalf.  Voters in California are getting phone calls from Ed Norton and Alfre Woodard; caucus goers in Colorado might hear from Forest Whitaker. Enrique Marciano, who stars in USA's Without a Trace, is campaigning for Obama with Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano. Minnesotans might be shocked to see Scarlett Johansson knocking at their door."

Does Obama have a problem with gay Democrats? This story about whether he snubbed Gavin Newsom over same-sex marriage a few years ago has probably made the rounds on the internet in the gay activist community and the Clinton campaign has been counting on doing well with gay Democrats in places where they could win extra delegates. (That said, after Newsom's highly publicized sex scandal, we're not sure how many folks see him as a sympathetic figure.)

Even the nosebleed seats were filled at Obama's event in Hartford, CT yesterday, NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan notes.  In a state where he isn't expected to win and where independents can't vote in party primaries, nearly every single seat in the XL Center in Hartford was taken, the audience clapping in unison to the music as Obama came out on stage. The event provided a stark contrast to an early morning event right outside New York City in New Jersey that lacked both people and energy. As Obama launched into his stump speech, his voice was quickly drowned out by the crowd, who catching onto a line of his stump speech began to chant with fervor, "We can't wait! We can't wait! We can't wait!"  The campaign estimated that around 16,000 people were present at the event.

MCCAIN: Is McCain's only chance of getting Rush on his side having Clinton as his foe? Maybe, then again maybe not. Here's what Rush in a weekend interview with the Post: "'If I believe the country will suffer with either Hillary, Obama or McCain, I would just as soon the Democrats take the hit . . . rather than a Republican causing the debacle,' he said. 'And I would prefer not to have conservative Republicans in the Congress paralyzed by having to support, out of party loyalty, a Republican president who is not conservative.'"

A growingly confident McCain said, "I will compete and win in New York state in November as the nominee of my party." He said that in New York City while receiving the endorsement of former New York Gov. George Pataki.

The candidate also took a shot at the Democratic candidates for their stances on Iraq. "Republican John McCain Monday ripped into Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton over Iraq, saying both are clueless about how to win a war and too inexperienced to be trusted with one," the New York Daily News writes.

After putting out several Web videos and a few regional commercials throughout the campaign hitting back against Mitt Romney's criticisms, McCain's defense is now hitting the national airwaves, NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy report. Last night -- during the network news broadcasts -- McCain's campaign sent out a release announcing that it would be airing a national TV spot that will essentially act as a closing argument with roughly 24 hours left before polls close on Super Tuesday.

Beginning with a shot of a young McCain talking with Ronald Reagan, the new spot contains various jabs at Romney's conservative credentials, including debate footage from his 1994 Senate race against Ted Kennedy in which he said, "Look, I was an independent during the time of Reagan-Bush. I'm not trying to return to Reagan-Bush." Next is a clip from a 2002 television interview with Romney where he said, "Yeah, I voted in the Democratic primary." The ad ends by raising the questions, "If we can't trust Mitt Romney on Ronald Reagan how can we trust him to lead America?"

ROMNEY: "After flitting from Nashville, Tenn., to Atlanta to Oklahoma City to Long Beach, Calif., on Monday, Romney was turning around and flying a red-eye to Charleston, W.Va., in time to address the GOP state convention Tuesday morning."

"President Bush set the stage Monday for an election-year battle over spending priorities by proposing a $3.1 trillion budget that cuts spending and taxes while more than doubling the federal deficit," USA Today writes. "Bush sent his 2009 budget to Congress over the Internet, but it landed with a figurative thud on Capitol Hill. Democrats vowed to ignore most of the threatened cuts to Medicare and other domestic programs. Unlike last year, when Bush forced Democrats to accept lower spending figures, this year could prove more difficult for the president. The fiscal year begins Oct. 1, less than four months before he leaves office."

This week, the Senate hopes to finish work on two administration priorities: an economic stimulus package and a bill updating the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). But because the Senate versions of the bills are expected to differ from the House bills, NBC's Ken Strickland points out, expect a showdown between the chambers next week if/when the bills are reconciled.

Today, top officials from the Administration's national security team will testify before the Intelligence Committee in its annual "Threat Assessment" hearing. DNI McConnell, CIA Director Hayden, and FBI Director Mueller are the headliners.

On Wednesday, Strickland adds, Defense Secretary Gates and Joint Chiefs Chairman Mullen appear before the Armed Services Committee to discuss Pentagon and war requests for 2009.  Also this week, Secretaries Paulson, Leavitt, and Bodman will testify before their committees of jurisdiction on the president's 2009 budget.

From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
After a few weeks of crimson-faced outbursts and unambiguous wallops aimed at his wife's rival for the Democratic nomination, reporters have suddenly found themselves looking at a potential news vacuum from super-surrogate Bill Clinton. With exit polling indicating that the former president's uninhibited campaigning in South Carolina may have hurt the candidate more than it helped, the Hillary brain trust appears to be shortening his leash -- much to the frustration of journalists whose interest was piqued enough to warrant chasing him around the country in the week before Super Tuesday.

During stops in Ohio, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado over the past week, Clinton has made little more than the small ripples of news that follow him everywhere -- crowd sizes, applause lines, and his continuing emphasis on his wife's experience. His stump speech sounds much like it did late in the game in Iowa. After taking heat for early slips about health care (he took the blame for the failure of the plan his wife spearheaded) and Iraq (he claimed initial opposition to the war in Iraq), the former president took few or no questions from the audience after his appearances in the Hawkeye State as caucus day drew near. Going into Super Tuesday, the same tactic of running out the clock is starting to look like the game plan. The Clinton campaign, after all, has always been known for its aggressive blocking on the line of scrimmage.

But without much hope -- for the moment -- of another "fairy tale" moment from the man from Hope, Bill's bread and butter warrants a second look.  Line by line, his standard stump speech is sprinkled with painstakingly logical -- if veiled -- rebuttals to arguments made by Hillary's detractors.

Associated Press guru and longtime Clinton expert Ron Fournier wrote in November that Clinton's stump appeal was "long-winded, misleading, and self-absorbed." There's no doubt that he is self-referential -- albeit less so now than a few months ago -- and it's also hard to believe that the crowd doesn't forgive him for it almost universally. Like his wife, he can be pedantic; unlike her, he sometimes flirts with professorial austerity in his appeal to make audiences, especially young ones, listen to his appeal. Almost without fail, he punctuates his discussion of every issue with one of three phrases: "this is a really big deal," "you should care about this," or "this is important."

Clinton always enters the room with a look of beatific joy and wonder, sometimes turning 360 degrees to observe the crowd -- wide-eyed, as if he's perpetually a bit surprised at the turnout. Although his crowds have been substantially smaller than Obama's, his entrances prompt a similar eruption of energy that Clinton tries to harness with an opening sentiment of unity and movement politics. "When I look out here," he told a crowd at the University of Missouri, "I see the America that Hillary wants for tomorrow."

And the crowd goes wild.

Perhaps the most fascinating trick play to watch Clinton enact is the balancing act between nostalgia for the past and change for the future. The Clinton apparatus is faced with the fascinating gymnastics act of conjuring up the prosperity of the 90s without stodgily invoking the past.

That challenge is particularly difficult for Bill Clinton, who is charged with countering Obama's freshness with a cache that is -- at the end of the day -- over a decade old. Supporters rarely fail to mention the prosperity of the 1990s when reporters ask them about their impressions of the Billary dyad.

But it's clear that the Clintons are mindful that wistfulness for the past could be a risky contrast to Obama's bold call for forward-looking change. It's no surprise that Clinton said in Columbia, Mo., that he's "always a little reluctant to go around and speak because sometimes other people say 'well we don't want to go back to the past,' even though the nineties weren't too bad compared to this decade." 

It is noteworthy, however, that he made that point within the first minute of his stump speech. It was followed with a surefire applause line: "Hillary does not want to go back to the past. She wants to get America back on its feet again so that we can march together into the future!"

But the lofty appeals for partisan harmony are quickly replaced by Clinton's deliberate -- even ploddingly rational -- argument for his wife's candidacy. "I want to ask you to vote for Hillary for president," he said plainly to several hundred students in Phoenix. "And I think that my reasons are very good." (His delivery of the line was so simple, in fact, that a giggle washed over the crowd.)

He makes no apologies for the academic shade of his remarks; in Albuquerque he said that "the American people… would rather hear someone talk to them like this than give a big whoop-de-doo speech."

And "whoop-de-doo" it's not. Since the economic stimulus crisis bubbled above the fold, Clinton has opened his remarks with a step-by-step explanation of the financial machete that has cut the bottom out of the mortgage market. Next come the problems plaguing the health care industry, or America's diminished standing in the world, or -- when he's speaking to students -- the money woes borne of college loans. International debt and global warming always make it into the mix as well, with the latter allowing for a reliably crowd-pleasing acknowledgment of Al Gore.

For each problem, the president outlines his wife's policy proposal, being sure to point out its uniqueness among the candidates. Since John Edwards withdrew from the race last week, for example, he's careful to point out that Hillary is the only remaining candidate to offer a universal health care plan.

With astonishing regularity, he closes each policy pitch with a bargain. (One of my colleagues brilliantly describes it as "transactional.") Vote for her, he says, and you will receive.

In Phoenix, on children's health care: "Vote for Hillary for president, and you'll get it."  In Highland Hills, Ohio, on foreign policy: "You want a changemaker? Vote for her for president." In Denver, on green-collar jobs: "If you want that, vote for her. She'll give it to you. She has the best energy plan."

A vote for Hillary, in other words, will be rewarded with "real changes in other people's lives." Or rather, the listener's life. From Day One. It's one-to-one deal-making that is a far cry from Obama's sweeping call for collective action -- "Let's go change the world."
 
Clinton's mandate, explicit or not, is to mirror the magic of Obama's inclusive charisma that conjures crowds that look more like U2 concerts than political rallies. But, probably much to the amusement of the critics who tied his sexual indiscretions to presidential hubris, Bill warns that the White House ain't Madison Square Garden.

Toward the end of his speech, Clinton launches into a comical riff about the cushy perks of being the Leader of the Free World. 

"They play a song every time you walk in the room," he chuckles knowingly. "You never have to wait in traffic. And your airplane is so cool that they make movies about it."  

The audience always eats it up, especially when he concludes with mock sobriety -- "But if you're not careful, you might think that you're somebody" -- and then, with true sobriety and a stern look -- "You see what I'm saying?"

Yup, Bill. Clear as day.

From NBC's Mark Murray
On the eve of Super Tuesday, the Clinton campaign held a conference call with reporters stressing: 1) that they expect to be ahead in total delegates (including super delegates) after tomorrow's contests; and 2) that the Clinton-Obama race might not be decided until March, April, or even the Democratic convention.

The conference call came on the heels of an Obama campaign memo, which predicted that after tomorrow, they expect to be within 100 delegates of the Clinton camp's count. One could argue that as the race has tightened, the Obama folks are setting that expectations bar quite low.

And perhaps so are the Clinton folks. In the call, communications director Howard Wolfson said that come, February 6, Clinton will be leading Obama in overall delegates, including the unpledged superdelegates -- the governors, members of Congress, and party leaders who also play a role in deciding the Democratic nominee.

Clinton chief strategist Mark Penn noted that the race will be far from over on Tuesday. "We don't expect this to be decided tomorrow," he said. "The delegate hunt will continue."

"The nominating battle," Wolfson added, "is likely to continue well past" Super Tuesday -- possibly into March, April or even the convention.

Penn also said on the call that the polls do show the Clinton-Obama race to be tightening (attributing some of it to an influx of Edwards' support). But he reminded reporters of what happened in New Hampshire. "You really never know how the votes are going to turn out until they are cast."

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones

Video: NBC News and National Journal campaign reporter Athena Jones explores what it takes for journalists to survive life on the campaign trail.

Life on the campaign trail isn't easy. When you're hopping from city to city and state to state covering rallies, speeches, retail stops, town halls and roundtables, the days seem endless. (For example, on Jan. 22, those of us covering Clinton flew from Washington, DC to California, to Arizona and back to Washinton. About 6,000 miles in one day for two events. And just the other day, we flew from California to Arizona to New Mexico to Missouri, where we arrived at around 1 am.)

I decided to ask my fellow members of the traveling press corps how they're holding up during this deliriously exhausting but incredibly exciting time. Are they getting any sleep? Are they managing to stay sane and grounded and what tips do they have for fellow travelers and any eager reporters who may want to follow in their footsteps? And what's the best part of covering the fight for the nomination?

From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
With polls showing Obama making up a considerable amount of ground in key February 5 contests, there is a growing sense that he could pull off what was unthinkable just two or three weeks ago: grab more Feb. 5 delegates than Clinton. Heck, even win California.

Well, the Obama campaign just released a memo to rein in such expectations. "Senator Clinton is certainly the favorite on February 5, given the huge leads she has held in many of these contests throughout the course of the campaign and the political, historical and geographic advantages she enjoys in many of these states," Obama manager David Plouffe said in the memo. "Based on her huge head start, Hillary Clinton should still win California, but is unlikely to achieve her goal of getting a sizeable share of the delegates."

Plouffe continues, "Our path to the nomination never factored in a big day for us on February 5. Rather, we always planned to stay close enough in the delegate count so that we could proceed to individually focus on the states in the next set of contests. We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months."

That 100-delegate margin is an interesting mention. It's rare that campaigns establish benchmarks that journalists can hold them to later on, and Plouffe is vague on "a number of states'" which could mean seven or it could mean fifteen. But in providing a measure of success in terms of delegates, that's a good way to see if Obama can meet his own expectations game tomorrow night. That said, after playing with the delegate math a bit, a 100-delegate difference might be setting the bar a little too low.

The full Plouffe memo is below.

February 4, 2008
To: Interested Parties
From: David Plouffe
RE: Putting Tomorrow into Perspective

Two weeks ago, a Clinton campaign adviser told CBS News that they believed they could "wrap up" the nomination on February 5th. As the "inevitable" national frontrunner, tomorrow should be the day when she sews up the nomination or builds a formidable delegate lead. But because of Obama's growing momentum across the country, the Clinton campaign is now unlikely to reach their stated goals of wrapping up the nomination tomorrow.

Senator Clinton is certainly the favorite on February 5, given the huge leads she has held in many of these contests throughout the course of the campaign and the political, historical and geographic advantages she enjoys in many of these states.

For example, California, which Clinton led by 25 points in October and 12 points two weeks ago, was once seen as the Clinton campaign's firewall and where they planned to run up an insurmountable lead in delegates. Former Governor Gray Davis, a Clinton supporter, said on MSNBC last week, "I am pleased to be for Hillary Clinton and I expect her to do very well in Super Tuesday. I expect her to win California by a sizable amount, at least double digits, do well in New York and New Jersey and Connecticut."

Based on her huge head start, Hillary Clinton should still win California, but is unlikely to achieve her goal of getting a sizeable share of the delegates.

Our path to the nomination never factored in a big day for us on February 5.  Rather, we always planned to stay close enough in the delegate count so that we could proceed to individually focus on the states in the next set of contests.

We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months.

A performance that exceeds those benchmarks, while unlikely, would put is in a surprisingly strong position heading into the rest of the February contests.

While the Clinton campaign is furiously trying to spin the expectations game, it is important to look at where they were in some of the key states just a few weeks ago.

ALABAMA
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Alabama By 15 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 15 points, 43% to 28%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08]

ARIZONA
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Arizona Obama By 21 Points. According to a poll done for the Arizona Republic that was released on January 23, Clinton led Obama 45% to 24%. [Arizona Republic, 1/23/08]

CONNECTICUT
Hartford Courant: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Connecticut By 14 Points. According to polling done for the Hartford Courant released on January 20, Clinton led Obama by 14 points, 41% to 27%. [Hartford Courant, 1/20/08]

DELAWARE
October 2007 Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 24 Points. According to polling done by Farleigh Dickinson that was released on October 10, Clinton led Obama by 24 points, 41% to 17%. [Fairleigh Dickinson, 10/10/07]

GEORGIA
In December 2007, Clinton Led Georgia By 7 Points. According to polling done by Strategic Vision released on December 12, Clinton led Obama by 7 points, 34% to 27%. [Strategic Vision, 1/22/07]

MASSACHUSETTS
Survey USA: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Massachusetts By 37 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 24, Clinton led Obama by 37 points, 59% to 22%. [Survey USA, 1/24/08]

MINNESOTA
October Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 25 Points In Minnesota. According to polling done by Mason Dixon released on October 2, Clinton led Obama 47%-33%. [Star Tribune, 10/2/07]

MISSOURI
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Missouri By 19 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 19 points, 43% to 24%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08]

NEW YORK
Before February 5th, Clinton Led New York By 28 Points. According to polling done by USA Today and Gallup released on January 28, Clinton led Obama by 28 points, 56% to 28%. [Gallup, 1/28/08]

NEW JERSEY
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led New Jersey By 17 Points. According to polling done by Quinnipiac released on January 22, Clinton led Obama by 17 points, 49% to 32%. [Quinnipiac, 1/23/08]

OKLAHOMA
Three Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Oklahoma By 20 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 14, Clinton led Obama by 20 points, 45% to 25%. [Survey USA, 1/14/08]

TENNESSEE
Less Than One Week Before February 5th, Clinton Led Tennessee By 33 Points. According to polling done by Insider Advantage in Tennessee on January 30th, Clinton led Obama by 33 points, 59% to 26%. [Insider Advantage, 1/30/08]

From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
As John Edwards was fond of saying, after we cast our votes in November, he will be fine. So will Barack and Hillary. But will America be fine?

As Edwards ended his presidential bid in New Orleans last Wednesday, it seemed the first would be true. He packed up after three days of large rallies at union halls in Feb. 5 states, his campaign still bringing in donations weeks after his hope for success dimmed. His family, apparently as healthy as ever, provided a solemn backdrop for his announcement. They would return together to their big Chapel Hill home, once the source of so much grief, now a haven from lingering questions about what went wrong. Meanwhile, Edwards' rivals began praising his campaign and rumors circulated that he would be offered a position in either of their administrations.

As a member of Edwards' traveling press corps for five months (I'm only the silver medalist --  one reporter had been traveling with him full-time for longer), I saw the two-time presidential candidate on good days and bad. In his last days, Edwards finally got the cold that had already made its way through his traveling press corps. (When I got it in South Carolina, my counterpart from Fox handed me a pack of throat lozenges she had gotten from the New York Times reporter.) The cold was a late consequence for the long days we had all experienced. Even before the first 36-hour campaign swing in Iowa, we were exhausted. No one can say that the former North Carolina senator didn't give the race his all.

In a campaign during which he often complained that the media had decided on a race between two history-making candidates -- frequently pointing to us in the back of the room as he made his point -- Edwards decided to outwork the hype. While his rivals stayed near Des Moines and Iowa City, Edwards headed north, south, east, and west, covering all 99 counties of Iowa (plus a brief stop in Omaha, Neb.) by the end of October. At the final stop in tiny Coulter, Iowa, on the morning of Oct. 28, we waited for the Ann Coulter jokes. None came, and the campaign cheerfully trudged on. One highlight for me came when Edwards started a campaign swing on a Sunday morning in my hometown. The editor of my local newspaper, which I had worked for a few years earlier, dutifully recorded the visit. The five-day-a-week paper put him on the front page above the fold on Monday and me on the front page below the fold on Tuesday. I heard about it for weeks afterwards.

Even as he put the Hawkeye State behind him and cable news analysts largely left him out of the post-Iowa analysis, Edwards drove hard through another 36-hour tour of New Hampshire toward the expected third-place finish. I was off the road then, but my producer and correspondent split duties covering it -- both unable to keep up with the Energizer candidate. From the beginning, Edwards' campaign had a four-state strategy, and we had gotten used to the back-and-forth between Iowa and New Hampshire. I racked up frequent-flier miles on a Northwest Airlines flight from Des Moines that passed through Detroit on its way to Manchester, NH. It didn't come as a shock when he lost Nevada; he had seldom traveled west of the Missouri River after I started covering him.

The culmination of a second-place finish in Iowa and third-place finishes in New Hampshire and Nevada took the air out of the campaign. Edwards flew to his home state of South Carolina and campaigned there with the same vigor, but at fewer events and without taking audience questions. Used to schedules that regularly included five events a day at far-flung Iowa towns, we slowly adjusted to days that included no more than three events. That would have been a brutal switch for our colleagues covering Fred Thompson, but for us it was a welcome respite. While Edwards strategized with his South Carolina staff and submitted to local interviews, we finally got a chance to see Charleston and to sit down for seafood dinners along the coast.

By this point, the traveling press corps was dwindling. A few of us had become fixtures on the campaign trail, traveling with press staffers in mini-vans full-time since September. When we arrived at events, we greeted staffers by name and were no longer asked to sign in. As more joined by December, we packed into a full-size van. After Christmas it was two full-size vans, where cozy conditions led to friction between overworked and cranky reporters. Finally, the group swelled enough to justify a bus for Edwards' 36-hour tour. The largest group of scribes and photogs traveling with the campaign came about halfway through that tour, when some people didn't have the desired two seats to themselves.

It was all downhill from there. The South Carolina staff generously let the 10 or so remaining reporters and photogs continue to be charged to ride in a bus, leading to much less tension and -- at least in my case -- the motivation to file posts or video after almost every event. (That had been close to impossible in Iowa and New Hampshire, and not rewarding either.) By the time the campaign drew to a close in New Orleans, only five people were along for the ride: reporters from ABC and CBS, a producer and cameraman from CNN, and me.

The end came as a surprise. We had been riding on Edwards' chartered plane since his loss in South Carolina, making stops in Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Minnesota -- all Feb. 5 states where the Edwards campaign thought they could pick up delegates. The campaign held a conference call touting record fundraising online and released ads in key primary states. I had been routinely batting away calls from bosses in New York and Washington asking when the campaign would end. No one was interested in much else from me as Edwards' impact on the race steadily diminished. When an event in Fargo was canceled and we were rerouted to New Orleans (in Louisiana, a state with a Feb. 9 primary), Edwards' traveling spokesman told us it was for a speech on poverty because the president had not addressed it in his State of the Union.

By the time we slogged through the mud at Musicians Village, meeting crews and correspondents who had flown in frantically once the news broke that morning, it was over. Edwards staffers had quit answering their phones, instead opting to e-mail glowing articles about the senator leading the policy debate in the Democratic nomination. In stark contrast to Rudy Giuliani's final concession later in the day, we were driven as usual to the site. Staffers flew in with Edwards' family from Chapel Hill to see the end, as they had the beginning. Reporters who needed it were driven to the airport afterward.

So as Edwards lent his celebrity to Habitat for Humanity once again and analysts began bickering over which candidate he would eventually endorse -- or whether he would endorse at all -- those who had left their lives behind to cover this man made a big decision: whether to catch a flight home or to stay for that night's Mardi Gras celebration. It was quickly evident, in fact, that America would be fine.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Some new polls out today… CNN/Opinion Research has Obama taking over the national lead, 49%-46%, over Clinton for the first time. McCain has widened his lead from a couple of weeks ago to 15-points over Romney, 44%-29%. Huckabee is third at 18%. The poll was conducted from Feb. 1-3 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5% for the GOP and +/- 5% for the Dems.

Per the AP, "seven in 10 Republicans say they would be satisfied with McCain as nominee, six in 10 say so for Romney. Democrats' enthusiasm is higher: 79 percent said they would be satisfied with a Clinton nomination, 85 percent feel the same about Obama."

Obama and Clinton are tied in a new CBS News poll, 41%-41%, though Clinton leads 49%-31% among those who live in Feb. 5 states. Clinton led nationally just weeks ago in the poll by 15 points.

Obama also now leads Clinton by a thin margin, 46%-44%, in Massachusetts, according to a 7NEWS (WHDH-TV/NBC Boston)/Suffolk University poll out today. Romney leads McCain 50%-37%.

Per Suffolk's release, 43% of people said Sen. Ted Kennedy was the most influential endorsement (Bill Clinton got 23%). The poll was taken Feb. 1-3 and has a margin of error +/- 4.9%.

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
NEW HAVEN, Conn. -- The day before 22 states hold the closest thing to a national primary anyone has seen, Hillary Clinton's first public event was a small roundtable with 11 women.

It was at the Yale Child Study Center where the senator worked during law school. (As the event began, the audience was reminded that the university does not endorse candidates.)

The crowd gave a standing ovation when the senator walked in. "Oh this is so nostalgic," Clinton said 

VIDEO: Hillary Clinton tears up during an introduction at a campaign event on Monday in New Haven, Conn.

Penn Rhodeen, Clinton's supervisor during her time at the center, introduced the senator, hailing her work on behalf of children. He seemed to get a little choked up as he spoke, saying she had always been and would always be a champion for children. After he spoke, Clinton joked that she had said she wouldn't tear up, but that already it wasn't looking good. Her eyes had misted up a bit, but there were no actual tears. 

She spent several minutes reminiscing about her arrival at Yale in 1969, her work for the Children's Defense Fund and on education and healthcare reform in Arkansas, before opening up the floor to a discussion with the women whose concerns focused on healthcare, daycare, mental health, housing issues and jobs.
Clinton talked about her plan for universal health care and asked the participants to share their concerns. "People talk about small businesses being the engine of the economy, but we're stuck," said Lynne Kudzy, a small business owner from Stamford. "I can't grow this company the way I want to and the real force that's keeping me from growing is the cost of healthcare."

Clinton called universal health coverage the morally and economically right thing to do. About an hour into the event, the senator had a cough attack and briefly lost her voice, which has been weak in recent days. She told an audience in Minnesota Sunday that she had been talking a lot and sleeping very little.

The senator was able to regain her voice later on and spent some time toward the end taking questions from the audience. She talked about child care issues and the sense of guilt she sometimes felt as she tried to balance work and family, while plugging her plan for universal pre-kindergarten programs. 

The timing of the event seemed odd, considering it was the day before contests in so many states. Her campaign said the forum had focused on issues that were a major theme of her campaign and that this was part of the conversation with voters she said she wanted to have at the beginning of her campaign. 

Her campaign said she'd spent the early part of the morning doing radio interviews and was headed to Worcester, Mass., and Boston later in the day and then to New York for a Letterman taping and a virtual, multi-state town hall.

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Clinton lost her voice pretty badly while at a roundtable in New Haven, CT. She asked for a lozenge and water, and after a minute, she tried to answer a question on health care. She got one short sentence out, and then breathlessly said, "This comes and goes."

A nurse then talked for six minutes, giving Clinton a chance to regain use of her voice. About eight minutes after losing her voice, Clinton began to get her voice back (but still was scratchy).

From NBC's Ron Allen
6 a.m. wheels up. The press bus rolls to a Mitt Romney breakfast stop at Nashville's Pancake Pantry. The morning paper predicts the canidate will "pour on the syrup." (I quote because I try not to write stuff like that.)

Anyway, Romney is determined. Very determined. He says he's on a "24 hour non-stop" push to the finish with California locked in his sights. "If I win California, that means you're gonna have a conservative in the White House," he boldly predicts to reporters and a bleary eyed crowd of curious locals.

This morning Romney is excited. He says he's seen a poll that has him up 8 points in the Golden state. Delegates there are decided by congressional district, which means he'll probably get a good share regardless of who wins the state outright. Late Sunday, he changed his schedule to add a trip from Atlanta to Long Beach and back to Charleston West Virginia. He'll have "media avails" along the way, at every stop to get on the news.
 
This could be Romney's "last stand," some analysts say. Most polls across the country have him down pretty much everywhere. But he thinks capturing California, which has a closed Republicans only contest, could change things dramatically.

But John McCain knows that too. He's headed back to California as well before finishing up the pre-Feb 5th sprit in Arizona, home.

By the way, McCain is known for being superstitious, carrying a lucky coin and such. Romney, however, seems to have no fear of bad luck or coincidence. Good thing. Last night he watched in disbelief as his beloved Patriots went down in defeat. And outside the Pancake Pantry this morning, just as Romney finished exhorting conservative America to rise up and support him, the skies opened and poured with rain.

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
NASHVILLE -- With rising poll numbers in California, Romney feels like a resurgent candidate. Similar to Obama in New Hampshire after his Iowa win when he said if he won the Granite State, he'd win the White House, Romney said to reporters here today, "If I win California, that means you're going to have a conservative in the White House."

So Romney's making a last-ditch effort by flying back to the Golden State for an evening rally tonight in Long Beach, where he campaigned late last week. Asked what he thought the addition of one rally would do for his prospects there, he said, "I can tell you it's a lot better than not going to California." And he added, "I think it communicates to people in California that the entire nation is watching California and what they're going to do." 

Romney also pointed out that the dynamics of the race have forced a shifting strategy by McCain. "I understand that we've now brought Sen. McCain back to California, too," Romney said. "He's like, 'Oh wow, Romney's there -- I better go back there and see if I can't shore up the race there.' But he's sliding in California."

He wasn't the only one who had some choice words for and about McCain today. Romney was joined by Tennessee Rep. Marsha Blackburn (who originally supported Romney before switching to Thompson and is now back with the former Massachusetts governor) and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. The Pennsylvanian said at the Pancake Pantry that he's been on the fence over whom to support for a long time, but that he thinks now Romney is the only real conservative choice. 

"It would be a sad day, a sad day if the state of Tennessee passes on the opportunity speak loudly on Super Tuesday, to speak with a conservative voice," Santorum said. "And if Tennessee wants to speak with a conservative voice, if it wants to show the Republican Party and the bigwigs who are lining up like lemmings behind the nominee, if they want to show the bigwigs in Washington who is in charge of this party, it's the conservative heartland that is in charge of this party, then you only have one choice, one choice: not Mike Huckabee, not Ron Paul, certainly not John McCain. It's Mitt Romney."

It wasn't just McCain that Romney went after. Asked who he would rather face in a general election, Romney laughed and said he'd just like to face a Democrat and then slammed them both. "You know, I think in Barack Obama's case, the fact that he's never had any leadership experience -- virtually of any kind would be something that would be pointed out by me if I'm the nominee," Romney said. "And in Sen. Clinton's case, she's had an opportunity to get things done, she just hasn't been able to do it."

Although Romney's losing his voice and said he can get through the next 36 hours but then will need some "R and R" for his vocal chords, he boldly declared, "This is the day before Super Tuesday. I'm going to be going across the country. This is a 24-hour nonstop effort. We're gonna make sure and see as many people as we possibly can."

All that campaigning may explain away why Romney hasn't been briefed yet on the new budget by President Bush out this morning and said he can't comment yet.

But for a candidate who's gotten testy on more than one occasion over what he'd propose as a budget, because he hasn't been ready to release that in the past, he finally opened the door to doing so soon. "I've been putting together my own plan for what I'd do with our budget," he said. "There are a number of things I'd like to do." Perhaps the newly press-friendly candidate will be giving the media more red meat soon.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Going back to Cali: Both Bill Clinton and Mitt Romney return to California today, as it appears the biggest prize on Super Tuesday is actually living up to the hype. Since Florida, a day hasn't gone by without a Clinton campaigning in the Golden State -- it's become that important to the Clintons. The good news for the Clinton campaign is that California counts if they win by a vote or 10 points. Once again, the Obama campaign is seeing expectations get out of control for them. Two days ago, getting close to Clinton in California would have been a "victory." Now? Losing will be a disappointment to them and in the eyes of the media. Yesterday's L.A. rally featuring yet another celebrity endorsement (Maria Shriver), certainly adds to the Obama hype. By the way, how important is early voting to the Clinton camp these days in both California and Arizona? How likely is it Clinton loses Election Day voters in both states, but gets her margin of victory via the early vote? If Clinton wins the Golden State, it will be because of those folks who made up their mind weeks ago…

VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the effect early voting might have on the outcome of the Golden State's election results and resulting delegates.

*** Speaking of Cali... :  Romney goes back today for an unscheduled stop, as apparently the polls show it closer than the experts think. Remember, California is a Republicans-only primary, so if there ever was an electorate for Romney to target, it's this one. Plus, the state awards delegates via congressional district -- not winner-take-all -- so there are plenty of delegates to grab even if Romney loses the statewide vote to McCain, who may have too much of his vote clumped in certain areas. And then there's -- again -- the early vote issue. Remember, when California started voting in January, McCain had yet to win a primary. Romney's the only campaign that had the resources to target the early vote in January; will this preparation pay off for him tomorrow night?

*** Obama under the scope: In the last 48 hours, we've seen a spate of stories questioning Obama's rhetoric and record. From nukes to guns, the Illinois senator is getting some scrutiny on the issue front. It's unclear if any of this penetrates the electorate before tomorrow, but going into the post-February 5 campaign, one can see how it could be Obama under the microscope instead of the Clintons -- a change from the last two weeks. Of course, Clinton's mandate for universal health care is getting a fair share of scrutiny as well: The RNC yesterday happily passed around an AP clip, which noted that Clinton "might be willing to garnish the wages of workers who refuse to buy health insurance to achieve coverage for all Americans." By the way, how ecstatic are the Republicans that this Democratic race is likely to go on and now will get nastier? With half the country out of the way, both camps are going to be more comfortable going negative in these smaller state contests, be it Virginia on February 12 or Wisconsin a week after that. Remember, the party that settles its nomination last usually loses the general

*** Edwards watch: Meanwhile, if Edwards was going to endorse anyone in order to influence the Clinton-Obama race, that endorsement might come today. But a former Edwards spokesman tells NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller that and Edwards endorsement today would be pretty unlikely. However, it is interesting to see just how many former Edwards backers are now supporting Obama. Per Miller, Reps. GK Butterfield, Jim Oberstar, and Raul Grijalva; former NARAL head Kate Michelman; California SEIU and the Transport Workers Union; and former Edwards rural adviser Dave "Mudcat" Saunders are all now backing the Illinois senator. Yet the Clinton campaign passed a list of names of former Edwards endorsers who are now supporting Clinton. Those people include three DNC members (thus superdelegates and frankly more lucractive "gets"), and several state representatives and party activists in California, New Jersey, Tennesse, and Colorado.

*** Just asking: Is it a coincidence that as Clinton is no longer leading in general election match-ups against McCain, her lead over Obama in national polls has narrowed? Or is it the other way around? Yesterday's Washington Post/ABC poll had McCain beating Clinton, 49%-46%, yet Obama beating McCain, 49%-46%. And according to a new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll, McCain leads Clinton, 45%-41%, while Obama beats McCain 45%-43%.

*** Just asking, part II: Did Mitt Romney jinx Tom Brady and the Patriots? Romney yesterday told reporters -- including NBC/NJ's Erin McPike -- that he emailed Brady his best wishes for the Super Bowl. Will the McCain campaign use that against Romney while campaigning in Boston today? It's just the type of thing McCain would say. Should be interesting.

*** Just asking, part III: Home state love. Check out the poll differences in Illinois vs. New York (and we can't wait to see some polling on the GOP side in Massachusetts). Can Obama do better in New York than Clinton does in Illinois? And why does it matter? Delegates. If Obama can break 65-70% in key districts in Illinois, he'll get some bonus delegates, ditto with Clinton in New York. Both need to run up the score in their home states. Interestingly enough, though: Clinton is saturating the New York airwaves while Obama is only advertising in St. Louis (more for targeting Missouri than Illinois). We'll see which strategy pays off. And speaking of delegates, a quick Dem tutorial for folks watching the delegate fight: The threshold for bonus delegates depends on the number of delegates up for grabs in a particular state or district. The range is anywhere from 59% to 70%, so check your rules before playing the allocation game.

*** On the trail: Clinton campaigns in New Haven, CT and Worcester, MA, holds her national town hall at 9:00 pm ET, and appears on Letterman; Huckabee is in Tennessee and Arkansas; McCain stumps in Boston and New Jersey before holding a press conference in New York City; Obama holds rallies in East Rutherford, NJ, Hartford, CT, and Boston; Paul is in North Dakota and Minnesota; and Romney hits Tennessee and Georgia before heading back to California.
 
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The New York Times sets the stage for tomorrow. "Senator John McCain, buoyed by new polls and endorsements, appeared in an increasingly commanding position on Sunday as he headed toward coast-to-coast contests that could effectively hand him the Republican presidential nomination… A sweep of big states by Mr. McCain on Tuesday would reward him with a trove of delegates and could bring the Republican contest to a quick end."

More: On the Democratic side, Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama were enmeshed in a tough national fight, illustrated by polls showing the race had tightened both nationally and in key states voting on Tuesday where Mrs. Clinton had once enjoyed a comfortable lead. They include California, Missouri, New Jersey and Arizona. Aides to Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama said Sunday that they now believed that their contest, unlike the Republicans', could extend well beyond the multistate contests on Tuesday, the day Mrs. Clinton had once expected to nail down the nomination."

As more evidence of those tightening national polls, a new USA Today/Gallup survey has it Clinton 45%, Obama 44%. (In the GOP race, it's McCain 42%, Romney 24%.) "In the poll, Clinton led Obama 48%-42% among women, compared with 50%-31% two weeks ago. He reversed her slight lead among men, and completely erased her 21-point advantage among people ages 35 to 64. Whites backed Clinton 49%-39%, while blacks backed Obama 63%-25%. Both racial gaps were higher than two weeks ago."

Meanwhile, per a new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll, Clinton leads Obama, 43%-37%, which is a six-point gain for Obama. In the GOP race, it's McCain 39%, Romney 24%, and Huckabee 18% -- a 15-point gain for McCain.

Here's a round up of recent Super Tuesday polls. First on the Dem side:
Arizona - MSNBC/McClatchy
Clinton 43%
Obama 41%
 
California - MSNBC/McClatchy
Clinton 45%
Obama 36%

California - CSPAN/Reuters/Zogby
Obama 46%
Clinton 40%
 
Georgia - MSNBC/McClatchy
Obama 47%
Clinton 41%

Georgia - CSPAN/Reuters/Zogby
Obama 48%
Clinton 31%
 
Missouri - MSNBC/McClatchy
Clinton 47%
Obama 41%
 
New Jersey - Quinnipiac
Clinton 46%
Obama 39%
 
New Jersey - Quinnipiac
Clinton 48%
Obama 43%

New Jersey - CSPAN/Reuters/Zogby
Clinton 43 %
Obama 43%
 
New York - Quinnipiac
Clinton 53%
Obama 39%

And on the GOP side…
California -- MSNBC/McClatchy
McCain 40%
Romney 31%

California - CSPAN/Reuters/Zogby
McCain 40 %
Romney 32%
Huckabee 12%

Georgia - MSNBC/McClatchy
McCain 33%
Romney 27%

Missouri - MSNBC/McClatchy
McCain 37%
Huckabee 27%

Missouri - CSPAN/Reuters/Zogby
McCain 35%
Huckabee 27%
Romney 24%

New Jersey - MSNBC/McClatchy
McCain 46%
Romney 31%

New Jersey - CSPAN/Reuters/Zogby
McCain 52%
Romney 26%

New York - CSPAN/Reuters/Zogby
McCain 53%
Romney 19%

The Boston Globe sets the table for Super Tuesday. "The sheer number of states in play renders the candidates' organizations and local appearances - two of Obama's strengths - less relevant. Many undecided Democratic voters will make their decisions Tuesday on broad themes and impressions gleaned from television ads, and from the media. In this dynamic, the messages from Obama and Clinton will be at their most distilled - he will promise judgment, she will offer experience. One of those values will win out, if not Tuesday then in the months ahead."

The Boston Globe also looks at the choice Southern Democrats are trying to make: "backing either the first African-American or first woman to be the party's presidential nominee. This quandary is especially evident in the South, where the four states holding primaries on Super Tuesday - Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee - all have large African-American populations, but also strong allegiances to Clinton and her husband, the former president. Combined, the four states offer 242 of the 1,678 Democratic delegates up for grabs."

Surrounded by fellow Bostonians and a Coors Light-drinking Rick Santorum, Romney -- who earlier told reporters he had exchanged emails with Tom Brady -- watched the final moments of the Super Bowl yesterday while in Nashville, TN, NBC/NJ's Erin McPike notes. Perhaps channeling his own plight in the presidential race, Romney said with 25 seconds to go, "Anything's possible."

As the game concluded, Romney turned away from the cameras on his face and declared with a slight smile, "One of the worst moments in sports history." He shook his head, chuckled and said, "You can stay here and watch the celebration; I'm not gonna." Santorum said to those around him, "Well, we like upsets; we're looking for upsets."

Clinton, meanwhile, was clearly pleased by the Giants' Super Bowl win Sunday night, NBC/NJ's Athena Jones and NBC's Christina Jamison report. "This is a good omen. Super Bowl, Super Tuesday. They go together," she told the press on the plane before taking off for New York Sunday night, after celebrating the final, crunch-time touchdown at a watch party with supporters in St. Paul. (It's worth noting, however, that Clinton wasn't watching much of the game last night until the end.)

One reporter mentioned that Obama was rooting for the New England Patriots. The senator laughed and said, "I wonder why." (Kennedy reference anyone?) Clinton also dodged questions about her husband and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson watching the Super Bowl together, saying she figured they just critiqued the game.

NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli -- a Giants fan -- also passes along this thought: The Giants will have their ticker tape parade on Tuesday. How many votes will be cast during that?

The New York Daily News: "Now, it's on to the REAL Super Bowl - MMVIII, not XLII."

CLINTON: McClatchy takes an in-depth look at Clinton's claim that she has brought change to people's lives for 35 years. "Clinton worked at the Children's Defense Fund for less than a year, and that's the only full-time job in the nonprofit sector she's ever had. She also worked briefly as a law professor. Clinton spent the bulk of her career -- 15 of those 35 years -- at one of Arkansas' most prestigious corporate law firms, where she represented big companies and served on corporate boards. Neither she nor her surrogates, however, ever mention that on the campaign trail. Her campaign Web site biography devotes six paragraphs to her pro bono legal work for the poor but sums up the bulk of her experience in one sentence: 'She also continued her legal career as a partner in a law firm.'"

More: "Clinton did a great deal of public service work during her time at the Rose Law Firm in Little Rock. She served on the board of the Legal Services Corp. during the Carter administration and for a time was its chair. She helped found a child advocacy system in Arkansas and took on several tasks as the state's first lady, such as revisions of the state's education system and rural health care delivery. She also served on the board of directors of the Children's Defense Fund, and on the board of a children's hospital… But 'these were all activities on the margins of her professional life, working as a corporate lawyer, representing corporations,' biographer [Sally Bedell] Smith said."

The New York Daily News endorsed Clinton. "Where Clinton and Obama differ most is on the critical questions of how they would approach the presidency and who is readier for the Oval Office at a time when the nation and world face increasingly complex challenges."

Is it a question of message? The Boston Globe: "With her early monopoly on the political establishment, with all her years of political experience and native intelligence, Clinton all along has been tantalizingly close to grasping her party's nomination for the presidency. To get to that gymnasium floor in Manchester, she endured half her adulthood in the harsh public limelight; a year on the campaign trail trying to light up crowds on little sleep; dark, humiliating winter days in Iowa and New Hampshire when the whole enterprise seemed near collapse. And yet with so much on the line as 22 states go to the polls Tuesday, the passion that has gotten her through all those years in Washington, all those months on the campaign trail, has not yet come across in the form of a clear message to voters."

Or is it polarization? "Strong anti-Clinton feeling has people in both parties speculating that if the New York senator wins the Democratic nomination she could become a powerful unifying force -- for Republicans."

Does this make Obama's argument on mandates? "'I think there are a number of mechanisms' that are possible to force people to participate in the universal-coverage plan - including 'going after people's wages,' Clinton said. Appearing on ABC's 'This Week,' she said she would only tap the paychecks of low-income people who refuse to purchase the required insurance."

The New York Times adds that Clinton "inched closer Sunday to explaining how she would enforce her proposal that everyone have health insurance, but declined to specify - as she has throughout the campaign - how she would penalize those who refuse."

Meanwhile, Paul Krugman weighs in -- once again -- for Clinton and against Obama on the issue of health care. "If Mr. Obama gets to the White House and tries to achieve universal coverage, he'll find that it can't be done without mandates - but if he tries to institute mandates, the enemies of reform will use his own words against him. If you combine the economic analysis with these political realities, here's what I think it says: If Mrs. Clinton gets the Democratic nomination, there is some chance - nobody knows how big - that we'll get universal health care in the next administration. If Mr. Obama gets the nomination, it just won't happen."

Clinton "insisted that a story suggesting that her husband used his connections to help a wealthy businessman get a Kazakhstan uranium-tapping contract was 'inaccurate.'"

OBAMA: The Boston Globe: "Obama has been in the Senate for just three years. Before that he served in the Illinois legislature, practiced law and taught at the University of Chicago. He's been in a couple of tough political races, but the major challenge always came in the primary -- he has never faced a serious Republican opponent."

"Now, however, polls indicate a strong resistance by younger people to another presidential candidate defined by baby-boomer issues - the same high-achieving wife, whose election as the first woman president would mark the fruition of feminist aspirations born in the '60s. At the same time, young people have provided the base of support for Barack Obama, a 46-year-old candidate who, while technically a baby boomer, represents a clear turning of the page in generational politics."

California First Lady Maria Shriver endorsed Obama.

MCCAIN: "As McCain comes off wins in Florida, South Carolina, and New Hampshire, the Arizonan is now where he thought he had begun his campaign years ago: a front-runner poised to become the consensus choice of Republicans. McCain, however, has gotten there less by winning voters over to his policy positions than by investing them in a national cult of personality that has made McCain's greatest political weakness - dissenting with his party on major issues - into a virtue."

AP: "'The first thing we've got to do after Tuesday is unite this party,' [McCain] says repeatedly these days -- as if the 21 states holding caucuses and primaries this week are simply a formality."

Former Sen. Rick "Santorum said he had witnessed problems with McCain's temperament, which he declined to detail. 'I don't know anybody in the Senate who hasn't. Everybody has their McCain story,' he said."

ROMNEY: "Now, as he prepares to make what could be his final stand against John McCain this week, he is still something of a mystery to Republican voters, trying to shake off the http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/02/02/turning_the_pages_of_romneys_biography/">character questions raised by his opponents. Last month, Romney ruefully acknowledged that he had let McCain and others define him as a flip-flopper. Romney insists he is nothing like that - that the morally upright, well-spoken man whom voters see is exactly what he is like underneath."

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
I'm sitting in the rear pew at the Greater Mount Carmel Missionary Baptist Church here in St. Louis, following Hillary Clinton on what has become her almost weekly pilgrimage to a black church.

Obama has an ad in the St. Louis American, a black newspaper found just outside the sanctuary. The ad reads in part: "Vote Tuesday February 5th. Throughout our history African-Americans have been motivated not by fear, but by hope for a better future. On Tuesday, February 5th Missourians can send a message to the rest of the country by voting for Barack Obama -- the candidate who can deliver change we can believe in." The ad tells readers when the polls open and close and provides a number for them to dial to find out where to vote.

(Note, the paper endorses Obama in this issue. It also includes a column by the Washington Post's Eugene Robinson, which is headlined as "Bill race-baits Obama (again)")

Identity politics is so easy, so simple that perhaps it's unavoidable -- hence the "Women for Hillary" buttons seen on lapels for months and the "African-Americans for Hillary" buttons I saw this past week in Little Rock. This is all understandable, but I still think both candidates are trying to have it both ways, claiming they aren't asking for support based on race and/or gender while playing up these distinctions at the same time.

Incidentally, polls show Clinton with a slight edge in a tight race here in Missouri, so it was no surprise to see Obama staffers and reporters in the lobby when we arrived at our hotel sometime after 2 am last night. 

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
Sometimes seeing isn't believing.

Obama crowds of late are breathtakingly large, enthusiastic. The candidate is often speaking to a massive overflow crowd of people from a bullhorn. The standard crowd size now numbers in the several thousands. Covering him, it almost feels like that magically unreal time in the few days leading up to his Iowa win and when he road that victory into New Hampshire.  The candidate was swept up in an air of inevitability, generating a palpable buzz that even thrilled the reporters who reported on him on a daily basis.

Just yesterday Obama drew a crowd of more than 14,000 people in Boise, Idaho -- not necessarily a liberal bastion.  In Minneapolis later in the day more than 18,000 people rose to give Obama a standing ovation at the end of his speech, and in St. Louis 20,000 people stood in a cavernous indoor football stadium to hear him speak late on a Saturday night.

But what, if anything does it all mean? Is it a sign of the tremendous potential of an Obama candidacy? Is it simply that Democratic voters are more engaged and interested in this election than they ever have been before? Does a cheering crowd really translate into votes? Ironically, reporting on Obama everyday, traveling on the same plane that he does, being driven to events on a press bus as part of his motorcade leaves the reporters following him the poorest judges of what the sentiment of voters' really are.

Poll numbers show Clinton in the lead in most Super Tuesday states, with the only state where Obama is ahead in Georgia, according to the latest MSNBC/McClachy/Mason-Dixon poll.  The margins are in the single digits, but the lead is there and a new Gallup tracking poll shows Clinton gaining after three days of losing support. 

For those of us in the bubble, seeing the crowds and then hearing the poll numbers presents a quandary -- is what you see the reality of what's happening on the ground?

Take for example the case of Boise, Idaho. Obama's crowd was loud and boisterous at 9 a.m. in the morning. The candidate joked when he took the stage, "I thought they said there weren't any Democrats in Idaho."  Campaign aides claimed that it was the largest crowd that had ever gathered in the arena at Boise State University.  It appeared like Idaho had suddenly turned bright blue.

But in speaking to a couple who regularly canvasses for Obama in the crowd, the reality of the electorate outside of the arena hit home. In knocking on doors the biggest lesson that Kathleen Ferrell and Dave Esrol had learned was that even Idahoans wanted change, but they weren't necessarily willing to accept the candidates on the Democratic ticket.  One of the reasons Ferrell said that Clinton wasn't popular was because she was a woman.

"I think some people have a problem with her being a woman. They prefer that people stay in the house," Ferrell said.

Esrol piped in, "One quote would be: Do you believe the Democrats want to put a wife in the White House?" 

What do they have to say then about Barack Obama, who has the potential to be the first African-American nominee for the Democratic party.

Esrol and Ferrell hedged, saying people say "disparaging comments, racial comments" but they are the exception not the rule. When asked if it's because they were hesitant to voice what they were really feeling, Ferrell joked, "Not in our part of Idaho." 

So what does it all mean? Does an enthusiastic crowd in Boise mean that there is a potential movement for change that could hand Obama a decisive victory in a bright red state. Does it mean that like in other parts of the country Democratic turnout will spike? Or does one anecdote represent a parable for an unexpressed sentiment in the electorate toward women or minorities that could affect turnout and make the rally in Boise appear to be an anomaly?

That's the problem with being in the bubble.  You just can't tell.