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  • Hillary calls her campaign a movement

    From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
    ORONO, ME -- As voters headed to polls and caucus sites in Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, and the Virgin Islands today, Clinton spent the morning campaigning in Maine, which holds its caucus tomorrow.

    The New York senator sought to make the case for why she's the best candidate to run against presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in the fall and even likened her campaign to a movement.

    "The Republicans are about to choose Sen. McCain as their nominee. I consider him a friend and a colleague, but I guess the Republicans like the last seven years and have decided they want more of the same," she said. "When I think about running against the Republicans, running against Sen. McCain if I'm so fortunate as to be your nominee, you'll never have to worry about me being knocked out of the ring. I think I can go toe to toe with John McCain every single day."

    Clinton returned to a central argument that framed her candidacy from the early days, saying that making change was harder than talking about change and stressing the need for a nominee with the strength and experience to make change. (The line on talking about change versus bringing change had been heard less in the days leading up to Super Tuesday.) "That is what I am offering and it will be even more important if our nominee is running against someone with the record, with the legendary background of John McCain and Democrats need to think about this," she said.

    In reprising criticisms that have become standard bits on the stump in recent days, Clinton said McCain was willing to keep troops in Iraq "for up to 100 years", while she would begin bringing them home within 60 days of becoming president. She said McCain had admitted he didn't understand the economy and that she understood how to create and keep jobs and was the only candidate on either side with an aggressive plan to deal with the mortgage crisis. Clinton also said she was the only candidate committed to universal health care, because Barack Obama's plan would not cover everyone.

    "If you care about universal health care, I hope you will go and caucus for me tomorrow," she said.

    The campaign has said repeatedly the contests today and this coming Tuesday in Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C. favor Obama, but Clinton campaigned in Washington state Friday and here today in the hopes of edging out the Illinois senator, even though he has generally performed better in states that hold caucuses. (It's important to note a leaked Obama campaign strategy memo predicted a narrow loss to Clinton in the Maine caucuses.)
       
    In closing, the senator said she had lent her own campaign money to stay competitive in the run-up to Super Tuesday because "this country is worth investing in" and likened her campaign to a movement, something the Obama campaign has been called.

    Clinton said people were surprised her campaign needed financial help. "We all need help. We all are in this together," she said. "This has to be a movement. This has to be a movement for health care, for peace, for justice, for economic opportunity, for a better life for people in Maine and across America."

    The senator spent about 35 minutes answering questions from the audience.

  • McCain: 'It's not over'

    From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
    SEATTLE -- The fate of McCain's campaign may have changed on Thursday when Mitt Romney withdrew from the GOP presidential race, but his stump speech hasn't and his attitude towards courting voters has yet to gain an air of inevitability.

    But at a stop here last night before Saturday's caucuses McCain did have a new mentality to combat: complacency.

    "We're doing very well, we're doing very well," McCain told the enthusiastic crowd of a few hundred gathered in a downtown hotel. "But it's not over, it's not over and we need to continue this campaign, and we need to get out our vote tomorrow. I'm counting on you to get out that vote. We win the state of Washington and we will make more progress towards securing the nomination of our party."

    Just a few months ago McCain had a tough enough time convincing voters that he even had a chance at his party's nomination, and now that he is a veritable shoe-in he must face the challenge of convincing supporters to head to the polls despite what many feel is an inevitable victory.

    His advisers admit that McCain hasn't had very much success in caucuses so far this election cycle, and now that his supporters feel that their vote may not matter, winning in tomorrow's caucuses here and in Kansas may be even more difficult.

    Yesterday, McCain competed for media coverage with both Democratic candidates who traveled around Washington making their case for change and a forward-looking presidency. So McCain tried his best to match up, giving his best pitch for an optimistic future.

    "I believe that our best days are ahead of us," McCain said, but then immediately began looking backwards. "I'm sure you remember many years ago there were bleak times in the 1970s after the Vietnam War and Americans thought our best days were behind us."

    He was referring to Ronald Reagan's presidency and its successes in changing the outlook of the country, but before an unusually young crowd -- especially for a McCain event -- the candidate's reference to a time more than three decades ago might have fallen on some deaf ears.

  • Huck: Better to be right and not win

    From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
    WASHINGTON -- Huckabee kept the audience at Conservative Political Action Conference here on its feet this morning, and vowed to stay in the race and not be "echoing the voices of others."

    "It's better to be right and even not win then it is to be wrong and win," he said.

    What was missing from the speech was some of the veiled attacks against McCain that Huckabee has been uttering in recent days. Huckabee said Friday that Kansas voters should not select a candidate who had a current office in Washington or that was new to conservatism. He said later he was referring not just to McCain but to all of the remaining presidential candidates.

    But today, he didn't mention his opponents to a crowd that many Republicans hope will warm to McCain for the sake of party unity. After the speech, Huckabee said he didn't repeat his comments about his opponents because he ran out of time. And he acknowledged he had little to lose by staying in the Republican race.

    "If this were my first race, I could perhaps be accused of thinking about it in terms of reputation," he told reporters. "But it isn't. I've been on the ballot time after time after time after time. And I've taken plenty of hits. I've been sued, I've been accused. I've been lampooned, cartooned, and harpooned. Been there, done that."

    Huckabee also said the campaign had raised more than $250,000 online in the last day. "We're just comfortable with where we've gone with the resources we've had," he said. "The good news is for us, by the way, is that now I think people are believing more than ever and our resources are coming in at a record clip. So if there's any question as to whether well, people assume  its over and they're quitting their contributions. Actually, its quite the opposite."

    He gave the crowd a long list of conservative policy ideas, including calling for the impeachment of judges that use international law to justify opinions. He also told them his race was seeking a miracle, noting a "Huckabee for President" lawn sign had recently stayed intact despite a tornado.

    "Everywhere there is a vote to be cast, I'm still standing," he said.

    When asked about a possible McCain-Huckabee ticket after the speech, Huckabee acknowledged there had already been one. "My wife's maiden name is McCain," he said. "Almost 34 years ago, the Huckabee McCain ticket became one -- the Huckabee ticket."

  • Obama at Seattle rally

    From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
    SEATTLE -- Flanked by Seattle's mayor along with Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire, who just endorsed him, Obama greeted a crowd of 21,000 at Key Arena here. 
     
    The energy was high with voters exuberant by the attention -- all three major presidential candidates (Obama, Clinton, and McCain) were in the state today on a hunt for delegates in the state's caucuses tomorrow.
     
    Climate change, the Iraq war and Obama tossing a bottle of water to a woman about to faint all received big cheers. As Obama told the crowd to part so that the woman in question could leave and called for help, a young girl in the crowd shouted out, "What a man!"
     
    The audience roared with laughter (although the press that has seen this happen before rolled its eyes). And Obama picked up his stump speech where he's left off and spared the audience any jokes about being "sleepless." But he did say that after thousands of "frequent flier miles" his bet that the American people wanted change had paid off.
     
    Obama also spoke to an overflow crowd of about 3,000 people, per campaign estimates. Obama chided a young man who was trying to climb a barrier to see better.
     
    "No man, I don't want you falling, get down there."
     
    He also made a GOTV pitch. "Show of hands, how many people are planning on caucusing tomorrow? How many people are going to caucus for Obama tomorrow? I love you guys, I appreciate you guys, and I'm looking forward to being back in Washington campaigning in the general election."

  • Bill's new advance get

    From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
    NEW ORLEANS -- There was a familiar face at Bill Clinton's first Louisiana event this morning at Dillard University in New Orleans. Legendary advance guru Sam Myers, Sr. -- who had previously been almost perpetually at the side of John Edwards throughout the North Carolina senator's candidacy -- was hard at work today directing camera traffic for the press following the former president.

    Today is Myers' first day on the trail, just over a week after the exit of longtime boss John Edwards from the race. Plans are still in the works, a campaign official says, to determine what Myers' travel plans with the former president and/or his wife may be.

    Myers, though, is certainly familiar with the Clintons. He was director of press advance for Gore/Lieberman, associate director of advance for the Clinton Administration, and national advance staff for Clinton/Gore '92, as well as the Carter Administration.

  • Huck and an embattled TV evangelist

    Per NBC's investigative unit at Deep Background, Huckabee solicited funds from an embattled TV evangelist.

    From NBC's Lisa Myers, Jim Popkin and Rich Gardella
    Gov. Mike Huckabee, vastly outspent so far in his bid for the presidency, has turned for funding to a controversial televangelist who is under active Senate investigation. Late last month, Gov. Huckabee held a fundraiser at the Texas compound of millionaire televangelist Kenneth Copeland, his spokesman tells NBC News.

    The U.S. Senate currently is investigating Copeland, and five other televangelists, amid allegations that they are improperly using millions in charitable donations for their personal benefit, and, in the process, fleecing their flock. Copeland and the other televangelists have strongly denied those allegations.

    "The Huckabee Event was not hosted by Ken Copeland or anyone employed by the church," a spokesman for Kenneth Copeland Ministries tells NBC. "The Huckabee campaign rented a room at our facility and hosted a private function," the spokesman says.

    For the rest, click here.

  • Clinton appeals to voters for cash

    From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
    TACOMA, WA -- Hillary Clinton made a financial appeal to voters at a large rally at the University of Puget Sound, just days after announcing she had loaned her campaign $5 million at the end of January.

    The New York senator said that after the announcement, a friend had been surprised that she needed the money. "As some of you may have heard, I recently loaned my campaign some money because I intended to be competitive going into Super Tuesday, and I think it turned out to be a good investment with all those victories across the country. And when a friend of mine heard that I had had loaned my campaign some money she said 'Well, why didn't you tell me you needed help and of course we'll be there for you?' Well, I have been overwhelmed by the response that I've received over the last three days," Clinton said, before sharing stories of some of the 75,000 new contributors who have donated to her campaign in the last few days, including a woman who said she wanted to contribute to the campaign rather than go out for Valentine's Day.

    "So I hope you will go to hillaryclinton.com read about the issues, read about what I've done for 35 years, and you will help support this campaign," the senator said.

    The direct appeal to voters for money -– the first this reporter has heard at such an event –- came after a conference call in which her campaign announced they had raised $8 million online since the close of polls in California on Tuesday. 
     
    The campaign has repeatedly said that Obama has an advantage in the next several contests, but the campaign insists they are not conceding any votes. In a battle for Washintong State endorsements, Clinton has the support of both of the state's US senators, Maria Cantwell, who campaigned with her today, and Patty Murray, along with Rep. Jay Inslee. The campaign also announced the endorsement of Rep. Norm Dicks today, just hours after Washington's Gov. Christine Gregoire said she was throwing her support behind Obama.

    Obama has consistently done better in caucus states and today, Clinton reprised a line similar to what was heard in the days leading up the Iowa caucuses, stressing the idea that not everyone can participate in the process and asking voters to think about those who can't be there. "If this were a primary where everybody could vote all day, I'd feel pretty good about it. But it's not. It's a caucus and you gotta show up at 1 o'clock and I already met three nurses outside and I said 'Well, are you gonna caucus for me?' and they said 'Well, we're working tomorrow', so I need all of you to redouble your efforts to go to the caucuses tomorrow to be there to stand up for what we need in a president," she said.

    In an attempt to appeal to Washington State voters, the senator mentioned a key environmental issue for the state, restoring Puget Sound. "I know a little bit about this because I've been fighting to save the Long Island Sound, which is between New York and Connecticut. See I believe we owe our highest duty to our environment," she said. "When you look at Puget Sound and its importance to the ecosystem as well as to tourism and all other kinds of business and pleasure and the health of this community, this is a national priority."

    The event was billed as one focused on nurses and health care, and Clinton took the opportunity to thank the American Nurses Association for its support, to explain her plan for universal health care and to argue that Obama's plan would leave 15 million people uninsured.

  • Obama on superdelegates, McCain

    From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
    SEATTLE -- In his third press availability in three days, Obama would not commit to a position he had put forward previously that superdelegates should vote the way their states did -- should the Democratic nomination come down to their votes.

    "I think those superdelegates and elected officials and party insiders would have to think long and hard about how they approach the nomination if the people they represent have said that Obama is our guy," Obama said the morning after the February 5th primaries.

    Asked today if superdelegates should vote the way their states votes, Obama hedged. "We haven't' had a lengthy discussion with all of our superdelegates -- our super delegates they should vote for me," Obama said.

    He added: "The question for those not yet committed and the superdelegates that are still out there … trying to make up their minds -- my strong belief is that if we end up with the most states and the most pledged delegates from the most voters in the county that it would be problematic for the political insiders to overturn the judgment of the voters. And you know, I think that should be the guiding approach to determine who would be the nominee. I think it's also important for the superdelegates to think about who will be in the strongest to beat John McCain in November and who will be the strongest to make sure that we are broadening the base, bring people who historically have not involved in politics into the fold."

    Responding to a conference call by the Clinton campaign that it would be impossible for neither Obama nor Clinton to win the Democratic nomination, Obama said that he "hadn't studied the math."

    "Obviously this thing is tight, and if we keep on going and we've got 20% of delegates allocated to superdelegates and you need 50% to win and it stays roughly, you know, 40%-40%, you know, obviously you're not going to get the majority that's necessary. But I think it's too early to speculate."

    He added that there was still a month to go and many "twists and turns" ahead. The nominating contests in Ohio and Texas will be held on March 4, less than four weeks away.  In a conference call today, Obama's deputy campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand, said the campaign was aggressively hiring staff in Ohio and Texas, focusing on local hires to organize and recruiting support from state and local officials.

    And in another sign that John McCain is as much the man to beat in this election as Hillary Clinton is the woman to beat, Obama forcefully said, "Yes, absolutely," to a question on whether he would argue that he has better judgment on foreign policy than John McCain similar to how he has argued that against Senator Clinton.

    "Look on the most important foreign policy decision in perhaps a generation, I strongly believe that John McCain got it wrong. I respect his service to our country and also would admit that he has been entirely consistent throughout the Iraq debate. He has been for it from the start and he's still for it, and he wants to be for it one hundred years from now," he said.

    Calling it an "enormous strategic blunder," he added that he looked forward to having that argument with McCain on the "consequences of the Iraq war."

    Asked if the nation should do more about gun control in light of recent shootings, Obama said that he would try to close the gun show loophole. "I think makes sense even to those who care deeply about the right to bear arms," he said.

    Senator Clinton was directly referenced only once during the press conference, regarding a comment Obama had made previously about Republicans using a "dump truck" of attacks against her and was asked if it qualified as a personal attack. 

    Obama bristled at the comment, and said it was not a "personal attack" but a response to the Clinton argument that somehow he was more vulnerable to attack than Clinton was. "I was  responding to a simple point that she would be insulated from attack despite the fact that we know they make a cottage industry out of attacking her," he said.

    Obama's press conference was held at McKinstry, a green company in Seattle. Obama was introduced by Seattle's mayor, who said that the city had forged ahead with reducing greenhouse gas emissions despite an absence of leadership in Washington and called Obama a potential "partner" in Washington on the issue of climate change. Earlier, Obama participated in a walking tour through the company.

  • Huck 'caught off guard' by Dobson nod

    From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
    WICHITA, Kan. -- Huckabee said he was not expecting to receive the endorsement from Focus on the Family leader James Dobson, even after speaking with him on Thursday.

    "I think he wanted to know was I serious about staying in the race, and frankly, the endorsement caught me off guard," Huckabee told reporters aboard his plane Friday. "We had talked and I had said to him that I certainly would welcome and appreciate his endorsement, but he did not indicate to me that it was forthcoming. And then late last night I got an email saying that AP was reporting out of Colorado of his endorsement and I was taken aback, that's great news."

    Huckabee said that he had spoken briefly with Romney on Thursday, after the former Massachusetts governor dropped out of the race.

  • Bill's baaaack

    From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
    NEW ORLEANS, LA -- Yup. He's back.

    It's no secret to pollsters, pundits, and Average Joes that a large part of the appeal of Bill and Hillary is nostalgia for the era of the Clinton White House. But if there was any confusion about newcomer Barack Obama's perspective on the roaring '90s, Bill Clinton wants to set the record straight.

    Clinton told a New Orleans audience today that his wife's main rival has made "an explicit argument that the '90s weren't much better than this decade," and argued that Obama's discounting of that era's prosperity won't lead to "good changes."

    Clinton also criticized Obama for arguing that "the best way to change America is just to change the personnel," saying that the Illinois senator hopes to "make a new beginning with people who have not been involved in the fights of the past."

    Speaking about the nation's affluence during the 1990s, the former president was greeted with cheers when he countered what he described as Obama's dismissal of the era by declaring, "I don't know about you, but I think the '90s were a whole lot better than this decade." He went on to offer highlights of his Administration -- including high overall job growth, low poverty, and unemployment in the black community, and a pronounced level of diversity in his cabinet and judicial appointees.

    "So there is going to be a change all right if we Democrats win," he continued. "We're going change from what happened in the last seven years. But I don't think we'll make very good changes if we pretend that everything that happened in the '90s didn't amount to much.  

    "It was historic," he declared to raucous applause. "It mattered, it changed Louisiana for the better, and I think you know that."

    The former president made the comments at a small rally of about 250 at New Orleans' Dillard University this morning. He devoted much of his speech to an outline of his wife's efforts to aid in hurricane recovery in an area where the signs of Katrina damage are still quite evident. 
     
    But his closing punch was about the oncoming political storm, not the Katrina floodwaters.  "You need to think about what you think is most important in a president," he implored the audience. "Is it more important to have someone who represents change because they've not been involved in the past struggles to make good things happen or stop bad things from happening. Or is it more important to have a president who's a world-class change maker?"

  • McCain Veepstakes speculation begins

    From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
    Although McCain will not admit he is the Republican nominee, he did answer a question on how he would pick his vice president -- telling reporters in Norfolk, Va., that where a potential vice presidential candidate lives would not impact his decision.
     
    "The process will begin and the fundamental principle behind any selection of a running mate would be whether that person is fully prepared to take over and share your values, your principles, your philosophy, and your priorities," McCain said, explaining how he would pick a vice president. "I think that's the first and only real criteria for the selection of a running mate."
     
    "And by the way, from a practical standpoint, I think that former President Clinton and former Vice President Gore showed that you don't have to be regionally different," McCain continued. "I think that America is such now, that the quote, regional differences, don't play the role that maybe they did in earlier times."
     
    McCain stressed he is not thinking about that decision now and reminded reporters that Huckabee is still in the race. "I don't want in any way to discount the candidacy of Governor Huckabee. He's in this race and for me to dismiss him, I think would be inappropriate and would be inappropriate and unrealistic."
     
    The Arizona senator also said although he doesn't know if we'll know the Republican nominee earlier than the Democratic one, he would rather the process not be drawn out.
     
    "If there's a contested race, if it continues to be contested on the Democratic side, then there's more attention to the candidates, there's more current media on their part," he said. "I don't know how this thing plays out but from my personal standpoint, the earlier the better."

  • Huck says he's conservative alternative

    From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
    KANSAS CITY, Kan. -- Huckabee worked to draw a contrast between himself and McCain Friday and suggested the twists and turns of the Republican race for president makes him still viable.

    "Conservatives in the Republican Party ought to have a choice for somebody who is unapologetically, 100 percent, without any flinching at all, pro-life, pro-traditional marriage, and pro-Fair Tax," he said to a full house at Mid-America Nazarene University, adding, "and pro-secure borders."

    VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on Mike Huckabee's evangelical endorsment and Hillary Clinton's campaign fundraising concerns.

    Huckabee is hoping strong showings in Kansas on Saturday and Virginia on Tuesday will keep his campaign alive. But he continued to say he would campaign until one candidate has a majority of delegates, even suggesting that Romney delegates could select him at the convention if they are released.

    "Let's say we get to the convention and Romney releases his delegates," he said. "They can come towards me. There's also a lot of factors that can happen. Any given day, a candidate can say one word, and it gets YouTubed, and his campaign's done.

    "The one thing, I know, isn't it a very complicated process for you to win? The answer is yes. But, you know, it's a very simply way to lose. I can just quit."

  • Hillary hits airwaves in WA, DC area

    From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Mark Murray
    The Clinton campaign has a new TV ad in Washington state. It now has one ad in each of the three states holding caucuses this weekend (Washington, Maine, and Nebraska). As an announcer touts Clinton's work with health care, viewers see video of the New York Senator glad-handing and with families in a hospital. "Now, she's the only candidate for president -- Democrat or Republican -- with a plan to provide health care for every American," the announcer says. "Just one reason why she's earned the support of Senators Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell."

    [Youtube:N3ESKsUzGbM]

    The Clinton campaign also announced that Clinton is going up in the DC area with these two ads, which also ran in February 5 states. (And in the second ad, we assume the Clinton folks will change the "Vote February 5th" on it to "Vote February 12th.")

    [Youtube:37LwStiMs6Y]

    [Youtube:H_kPOjH3jHI]

  • Huckabee wins Texas -- sort of

    From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
    NEW YORK -- Huckabee is hoping for a big win in Texas, and he's already scored one victory, beating Stephen Colbert in air hockey while using the state as a puck.

    Huckabee made an appearance on the "Colbert Report" yesterday, interrupting the host as he was saying McCain looked he would be the Republican nominee for president.

    "Now wait just a minute, Stephen," he said to applause. Later, when Colbert asked whether he was still in the race, Huckabee responded, "Yes. Hello!"

    After staring awkwardly while Colbert poked fun at Katie Couric, Huckabee was brought to an air hockey table filled with the 50 states. He then said "I think we have a good shot in a big state -- Texas" and it was selected as the puck.

    After a short go-around, and the realization that the Texas puck may be larger than the goal, Huckabee scored.

    Earlier in the day, Huckabee made an appearance on the "Tyra Banks Show," where he defended his position on gay marriage to the host, who openly acknowledged her support for gay rights, according to a pool report.

    Huckabee also talked to Banks about his weight loss and the departure of Romney from the race. The two ended the chat by playing bass guitar.

  • Bush at CPAC

    From NBC's Lindsey Pritzlaff
    President Bush opened today's events at CPAC. Bush was originally slated to speak at 10:20 am, but because of his recently scheduled trip to Tennessee, it was pushed up to 7:15 am. Even with the early start, Bush received a warm welcome from the crowd -- primarily made up of college students.

    It has been eight years since the last time Bush spoke at CPAC, and he used his time to outline the successes of his administration. "My energy is up, my spirit is high, and I will finish strong," he said. As he touched on education, the economy, and the war in Iraq, those in attendance chanted "W" and applauded frequently. Bush said, "My decision to remove Saddam Hussein was the right decision at the time, and it is still the right decision today," to which he received a standing ovation and one of this loudest applause.

    Bush made no mention of any candidate by name from either party. He did address the divide between the Republicans and Democrats' positions on education, abortion, taxes, and judicial appointments. The crowd screamed "No," as Bush outlined the Democrats' positions. "This is an important election," said Bush, adding that conservatives "must keep the White House in 2008."

  • First thoughts: Some good GOP news

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
    *** Finally, some good GOP news: It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the Republican Party is heading into a general election where it's at a clear disadvantage -- whether we're talking about generic ballot tests, fundraising, Iraq and the economy, or turnout so far in this year's nominating contests. But with Romney's departure from the GOP race yesterday, coupled with the perception that Obama and Clinton will continue battling at least for a couple more months, the GOP finally has some good news to tout: It appears to have its nominee months before the Democrats will. And this time is an opportunity to heal wounds, raise money, and reorganize for the general election battle ahead. The Democrats -- with all of their advantages -- might not have that same opportunity. Think about this stat, by the way: There is more time in between the last primary (Puerto Rico) and the start of the Dem convention (approx. 80 days) than there is from the end of that convention to the November general election (approx. 60 days).

    *** A note of caution, however: While everyone is proclaiming McCain the presumptive nominee after Romney's exit, the GOP race still isn't over. And do remember that McCain has never been a good front-runner -- he has always seemed to trip up when in that position. Huckabee is still in the race, and his last stand is Virginia. He may not say it, but it's pretty obvious when one looks at the potential Republican electorate. Should many indies and moderate Republicans decide their vote is better spent in the Dem primary, then Huckabee's passionate evangelical supporters could be enough to keep things close. What does McCain do now? For one, he can't completely act like he's taking the nomination (and conservatives) for granted. He should do what he can to put Huckabee away for good on Tuesday. A big win by McCain over Huckabee in Virginia will do just that. The thing McCain has left to fear from conservatives who aren't on board yet is a third party challenge, and that happens if he pokes conservatives in the eye or ignores them too quickly and moves too fast to the center.

    *** The streak might be broken: With Romney bowing out of the race, the chances of a sitting senator winning the presidency in November are now extremely high, NBC's Andy Merten notes. Barring the highly unlikely surge by Huckabee (a governor) or the entrance and success by a third-party contender (say Bloomberg), either McCain, Obama, or Clinton will probably win in November -- the first time in nearly 50 years a sitting senator has won the presidency, since JFK. Something else worth pointing out: If McCain and Clinton both end up winning the nods, it will be the first time we can remember both nominees being outspent in the primaries.

    *** Dictating the pace of the game: Is Obama the front-runner? Maybe not, but the fact that he's dictating the terms of when the candidates debate and he is the fundraising leader, he's on the verge. The only thing missing: an overall delegate lead and a national primary poll lead. Clinton needs to stop him from that because if his momentum ever gets to the point where he looks like the national front-runner in the polls, everything else will only cement him. Another example of Obama dictating the race: his semi-call yesterday for the Clintons to release their tax returns after the $5 million loan, which led to a slew of stories today examining their wealth. But the Clinton folks had to know this would be the result of their decision to spend their own money. After all, the Clintons have only accumulated their wealth since Bill Clinton left the presidency. By the way, can the Clinton campaign get away with their promise to wait to release their tax returns after the primary season?

    *** Another busy weekend: If you thought that there were no contests between Super Tuesday and Chesapeake Tuesday on Feb. 12, think again. This weekend, there are a total of five Democratic races, and a combined 185 delegates are at stake in them. In fact, it's worth noting that this delegate amount is 48 more than were at stake before February 5. On Saturday, Louisiana (primary), Nebraska (caucuses), the Virgin Islands (territorial convention), and Washington State (caucuses) hold nominating contests. And Maine (caucuses) goes on Sunday. The GOP also holds contests in Kansas, Louisiana, and Washington. A preview of these races is below…

    *** Loopholes donkeys could fit through: Journalists are not lawyers or mediators or referees. Unfortunately, particularly with regard to the situation surrounding Michigan and Florida's delegates, we've had to play the part, in some respects, of all three. We pride ourselves on trying to make the complicated clear. And for those of us who attended the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting months ago, most of us thought the rules were abundantly clear. It went something like this: you knew the rules; you broke the rules; you get one last chance (30 days to figure out how to abide by the rules), and if you don't, you are punished. Now we learn that through what essentially amounts to loopholes and legalese, Florida and Michigan could be given another chance. There's talk that if they hold caucuses or something similar, then their delegates could potentially be seated and have full voting privileges. But just asking: Isn't it Parenting (or Teaching) 101 that you shouldn't set consequences you can't follow through on? Because when your child (or student)-- given clear expectations and consequences from the beginning -- breaks the agreed-to rules and you don't follow through, don't you lose credibility?
     
    *** On the trail: Clinton is in Washington State, where she stumps in Tacoma and Spokane; Huckabee holds rallies across Kansas; McCain campaigns in Virginia, Kansas, and Washington State; and Obama attends a rally in Seattle, WA before traveling back to Chicago.

    Countdown to Chesapeake Tuesday: 4 days
    Countdown to Ohio and Texas: 25 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2008: 270 days
    Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 347 days

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  • The weekend's Fab Five (D)

    Saturday, Feb. 9:
    -- Louisiana primary: 56 delegates at stake. (37 proportional by CD, 15% threshold; 19 based on statewide vote, 15% threshold.) Independents cannot vote. Polls open at 7:00 am ET and close at 9:00 pm ET.
     
    -- Nebraska caucuses: 24 delegates at stake. (16 delegates selected as a result of the caucuses proportionally by CD, of which there are 3, 15% threshold; other 8 are selected at the June 28 state convention based on preferences of state convention delegates, 15% threshold.) There is same-day registration at the caucuses, and they operate similar to how they do in Iowa. Caucusing begins as early as 11:00 am ET and they end as late as 9:30 pm ET.
     
    -- Virgin Islands territorial convention: 3 delegates at stake. (Proportional by statewide vote, 15% threshold. There are actually 6 pledged delegates, who will be seated at the national convention, but their votes only count for half.)
     
    -- Washington caucuses: 78 delegates at stake. (Multi-tiered caucus. 51 proportional by CD, no threshold; 27 elected at state convention by the 51 CD delegates and those 27 will be selected proportionally by the statewide vote.) Voters sign a party declaration same day as the caucuses. Caucusing begins at 4:00 pm ET, and we should have results no later than 9:00 pm ET.
     
    Sunday, Feb. 10:
    -- Maine caucuses, 24 delegates at stake. (16 proportional by CD of which there are 2, 15% threshold; 8 proportional by support at May 31 state convention.) There is same-day registration at the caucuses, and they begin as early as 1:00 pm ET, and results should start to come in around 6:00 pm ET.

    And for those who want to understand more about the Dems' delegate-selection process, the DNC is having a conference call with reporters at 4:00 pm ET.

    "[V]oters in Washington state, Kansas and Louisiana take part in GOP contests Saturday that, absent an improbable insurgency against the one-time insurgent McCain, have become his virtual coronation. There was plenty of drama for Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, competing for 161 delegates Saturday in Washington state, Louisiana, Nebraska and the Virgin Islands, followed by Maine caucuses with 24 delegates Sunday."

  • Clinton vs. Obama

    The New York Times' David Brooks looks at the educational split between Clinton and Obama that normally would defeat Obama -- except that he's got one extra voting group with him that previous intellectual Dems haven't: African-Americans.

    The Wall Street Journal's lead: "Hillary Clinton's decision to use $5 million of her own money to finance her presidential campaign casts a new spotlight on the wealth that she and her husband have accumulated since they left the White House seven years ago." The paper goes on to examine just how much money Clinton could put into the campaign. On her financial disclosure, Clinton said their net worth was somewhere between $10-25M.
    "She does have access to half her husband's earnings placed in joint financial accounts. Since leaving the presidency, Bill Clinton has made tens of millions of dollars through speaking fees and business deals. Mr. Clinton is negotiating to sever his high-profile business ties with Los Angeles businessman Ron Burkle, who is also a major fund-raiser for Sen. Clinton. That deal could soon provide an additional $20 million or more to the Clinton family coffers -- potentially increasing Sen. Clinton's personal access to cash by about $10 million." 
     
    The New York Times also delved into the Clintons' personal finances. Asked about whether she'd release her tax returns: "Clinton campaign officials said she would release her returns if she won the nomination. The officials said there was enough information in her public Senate financial disclosures to assess her personal finances. Her Senate forms do not list exact deductible expenses like interest or medical costs. The tax returns would show exact interest and dividends from investments, not just the ranges on the disclosure forms." More: "Mrs. Clinton has been an advocate for transparency in campaign finance, as has Mr. Obama. For all the confidence expressed by the Clinton campaign, the onus remains on Mrs. Clinton to show fund-raising muscle, in view of her raising less and relying on the loan as well as a $10 million transfer last year from her Senate campaign account to her presidential account."

    The New York Daily News on Clinton's loan: "But the loan raised questions about the sources of her money and her refusal to release income tax returns. Clinton has filed financial disclosure forms for her White House run, as required by law, but she has not released her tax statements, as the President and many elected officials routinely do. Obama disclosed his returns for 2006. On a campaign flight yesterday, he said, "The American people deserve to know where you get your income from."

    Meanwhile, the campaign quickly decided to pull back its decision to let staffers go unpaid. One gets the sense they didn't like that storyline getting out since, well, winning campaigns rarely have staffers go unpaid. 
     
    "Clinton's team mobilized Thursday to send reassuring messages to donors and supporters. The campaign first announced raising $4 million in 24 hours, then $6 million in 36 hours and then $7.5 million in total since Feb. 1. Neither her nor Mr. Obama's figures could be confirmed because fund-raising reports for this period will be made public in April." 
     
    The Washington Times reports on all of the Clinton "Hillraisers" who stayed in the Lincoln Bedroom. "Forty-nine of the Clintons' Lincoln Bedroom guests are among the 250 HillRaisers listed on Mrs. Clinton's campaign Web page, who have pledged to gather, or 'bundle,' at least $100,000 in donations. Some have promised to raise $1 million or more for the 2008 campaign, the most costly in U.S. history. "

  • Oh-eight (R): All about McCain

    HUCKABEE: In what may be an endorsement that feels like it's too little too late, James Dobson has finally thrown his support to Huckabee.

    Politico's Martin examines Huckabee's victories and concludes there's no way he can win Virginia in a two-way race. 
     
    The Washington Times looks at Huckabee's potential role as a spoiler, a la Buchanan in '92 or, say, Jerry Brown in '92. 

    MCCAIN: The New York Times: "John McCain all but captured the Republican presidential nomination on Thursday after Mitt Romney withdrew from the race, saying the war in Iraq and the terrorist threat made it imperative that the party unite."

    The Los Angeles Times' headline: "Romney's exit hands McCain the nomination." "McCain yanked his Virginia TV ads on Thursday. But as long as Huckabee stays in the race, aides said, McCain will keep campaigning, with stops today in Virginia Beach; Wichita, Kan.; and Seattle." 
     
    President Bush plans to give an implicit endorsement of McCain's conservative bona fides this morning as his onetime rival seeks to consolidate the party behind his candidacy. In a speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference, Bush plans to say that the nominee of the party will be a strong conservative, according to excerpts released by the White House last night. "We have had good debates and soon we will have a nominee who will carry the conservative banner into this election and beyond," Bush says in the excerpts, without mentioning McCain by name. "The stakes in November are high. Prosperity and peace are in the balance. So with confidence in our vision and faith in our values, let us go forward, fight for victory and keep the White House in 2008."

    National Journal's Kirk Victor looks at what seem to be two of McCain's weaknesses heading into the general election: his temper and the view of him among some conservatives. "McCain is still fighting to make the sale that his put-up-your-dukes demeanor is a thing of the past and that his party's conservative base can trust him."

    The New York Post outlines where McCain has agreed and not agreed with the conservative base.

    Club for Growth's Pat Toomey offers up some VP options in a WSJ op-ed. No doubt Mr. Toomey's head will explode if McCain picks Huckabee. Toomey recommends: SC's Mark Sanford, Jim DeMint, Steve Forbes, IN's Mike Pence or Texas' Phil Gramm.

    The Washington Post's Balz points out: "With McCain as the Republican nominee and Clinton or Obama the Democratic nominee, this election will be the first since 1960 in which a senator makes it to the White House. Since then, four senators have won their party's nominations but lost the election." 

    The Wall Street Journal: "Rarely has a party's pick made so many enemies along the way, from church pews to corporate boardrooms. Many Christian conservatives mistrust him, while his battles with major business interests -- energy, tobacco, cable and more -- are Senate legend."

    ROMNEY: The front page of the Boston Globe shows Romney walking off stage-right, waving to the crowd: "McCain courts conservatives after Romney quits race." "Romney pulled out after failing to build a viable, nationwide coalition of conservative supporters, in part because they mistrusted him for changing his views on key issues. McCain, who has long squabbled with his party's right wing, now must bring aboard those conservatives without alienating the independents and moderates who gave him significant support in early primary races."

    The New York Times does the O-Mitt-uary: "Suspicions about Mr. Romney's Mormon faith consumed his campaign early on, only to seem to fade from view. But his advisers and outside experts agree that the unease ultimately helped pave the way for Mike Huckabee, a former Southern Baptist pastor, to emerge from the backbench of the Republican field to win the Iowa caucuses, a central, costly goal of Mr. Romney's strategy. Then Mr. Romney's aides failed to anticipate the collapse of Rudolph W. Giuliani's candidacy, leaving no one to halt Senator John McCain's resurgence among moderate Republicans and independents."

    The Washington Post recounts how it all went down. "After six weeks of losses, culminating in Tuesday's embarrassing finish in all of the big-state contests, he gathered his inner circle Wednesday morning at the campaign's North End headquarters in Boston. Still very much the corporate fix-it man, whose methodical approach to business had made him the multimillion-dollar personal fortune he was now spending at an alarming rate, Romney had ordered up formal presentations on whether to keep fighting against a surging Sen. John McCain. One adviser assessed the communications and messaging challenges of staying in the race. Another described tactics. A third offered the financial bottom line. Another mapped out the difficult, state-by-state path Romney would face as an underdog trying to catch up to McCain in the Republican delegate count. 'There was a path,' said a top aide who helped develop one of the presentations. 'There was absolutely zero room for error. And then, it was, at best, probably not more than a 20 percent chance.'"

    And what about a possible Romney re-birth. "The odds were simply too steep for the former Massachusetts governor, especially after his weak showing in Tuesday's round of coast-to-coast primaries." But, "In dropping out in the name of party unity, Romney built himself some goodwill within the GOP and maybe even positioned himself for a run in 2012."

  • Oh-eight (D): Noonan on Hillary

    CLINTON: The Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan wonders whether Hillary Clinton "knows how to lose."  More: "She often talks about how tough she is. She has fought "the Republican attack machine" that has tried to "stop" her, "end" her, and she knows "how to fight them." She is preoccupied to an unusual degree with toughness. A man so preoccupied would seem weak. But a woman obsessed with how tough she is just may be lethal."

    More: "I ruminate in this way because something is happening. Mrs. Clinton is losing this thing. It's not one big primary, it's a rolling loss, a daily one, an inch-by-inch deflation. The trends and indices are not in her favor. She is having trouble raising big money, she's funding her campaign with her own wealth, her moral standing within her own party and among her own followers has been dragged down, and the legacy of Clintonism tarnished by what Bill Clinton did in South Carolina. Unfavorable primaries lie ahead. She doesn't have the excitement, the great whoosh of feeling that accompanies a winning campaign. The guy from Chicago who was unknown a year ago continues to gain purchase, to move forward. For a soft little innocent, he's played a tough and knowing inside/outside game."

    Campaigning in Virginia yesterday, Clinton tried to draw a contrast with McCain.
     
    Chelsea Clinton's increased role on the trail continues to get attention.

    OBAMA: Obama campaigned in Louisiana yesterday. From the Times-Pic: " The only major presidential candidate scheduled to appear in Louisiana before Saturday, Obama also told a crowd of about 3,500 supporters that it will take change in Washington for New Orleans to recover. He pledged that if elected, he would restructure FEMA and make sure there is enough money to protect the area from future storms." More: " Obama spent more than half the day in New Orleans, touring an elementary school operating out of trailers in the 9th Ward and enjoying gumbo for lunch. He then headed to another Saturday primary state -- Nebraska -- as former President Bill Clinton prepared to make a swing across Louisiana today to campaign for his wife."

  • Bush and the GOP

    President Bush already spoke this morning at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). Per advanced remarks, he said: "I look forward to working with you this year. My energy is up, my spirit is high, and I intend to finish strong. In the meantime, we will elect a new president. We have had good debates and soon we will have a nominee who will carry the conservative banner into this election and beyond. The stakes in November are high. Prosperity and peace are in the balance. So with confidence in our vision and faith in our values, let us go forward ... fight for victory ... and keep the White House in 2008."
     
    Add Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to the list of GOP leaders trying to unite the party. Here's a key excerpt from his CPAC speech this morning, which compares Romney's decision to what he's been doing in the Senate: "Governor Romney explained yesterday why he was getting out of the race. He said he doesn't like to lose. But he thinks Republicans have a better chance in November if he got out now. He sacrificed his own chances of winning for the sake of the larger party goals. Republicans in the Senate have been operating under a similar principle. We've repeatedly come together for a single greater cause: the future security and prosperity of the entire nation. And by sticking together, we have done more than prevent a number of very bad ideas from becoming law. We've insisted, again and again, that Democrats govern in the middle, which is a little bit to the left of where we'd like them."

    More: "But the alternative would have been far worse. By sticking together, and with your help in holding us accountable, we did something else too. We rediscovered some old principles. And I have no doubt that if Republicans everywhere continue to stick together this year, we will not only win in November.  We will be reenergized in our convictions — and ready to confront the nation's challenges with confidence that Republicans, when united, are best-prepared to lead our nation through the great challenges of our time, by bringing it closer to the conservative ideals upon which it was founded."

  • More on Romney bowing out

    From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Lindsey Pritzlaff
    WASHINGTON -- When Romney bowed out of the race at CPAC, his supporters in the audience were not happy, as First Read reported earlier. With overwhelming booing and people screaming out "no" and "stay on, stay on," Romney was appreciative of the support but undeterred in his decision.
     
    "Even though we face an uphill fight, I know that many in this room are fully behind my campaign," Romney said to cheers. About a third of crowd -- about 150 -- enthusiastically held their Mitt signs, giving Romney a standing ovation several times throughout his speech.
     
    "If this were only about me, I would go on, but its never been only about me," Romney said solemnly but optimistically. "But I entered this race because I love America, and because I love America, I feel I must now stand aside, for our party and for our country." 
     
    The crowd yelled at "no" and booed loudly, but then respectfully allowed Romney to finish his speech, giving him a full standing ovation when he finished speaking. Ann joined him on stage, where the two waved to their faithful supporters and walked off hand in hand.
     
    After Romney finished speaking, a CPAC official asked the crowd to sit down so the schedule could resume, "and particularly so that when 3 o'clock comes, Mr. Romney's main opponent will be able to have some time as well."

    The crowd loudly booed the mention of McCain.

  • Romney made decision last night

    From NBC's John Boxley
    Romney spokesman Eric Fehrenstrom says the decision to withdraw was made last night. Earlier in the day, Romney had held meetings with senior staffers, looking at options. At a later meeting with the entire staff, they enthusiastically encouraged him to stay in the race.

    So he went home last night to write his CPAC speech, and Eric says it became a "farewell speech"

    Romney wanted to do what was right for the party. Though he still saw a pathway to nomination, he was concerned about a protracted struggle within the party at a time when the country is at war.

    Romney hopes today's decision unifies the party, his family supported the decision, and he will endorse McCain if he is the nominee.

    What next?
    Romney is meeting with congessional leaders on the Hill this afternoon, then going home to Massachusetts for some much needed R and R. He is not speaking at Lincoln Dinner tonight as earlier scheduled

  • Romney decision kept close to the vest

    From NBC's Chris Donovan
    Word hadn't traveled to many in the room before Romney spoke. A whole group of Romney student supporters near me in the room were completely shocked to hear Romney announce he was dropping out despite at least Blackberry reception. One apparent supporter whispered "unbelievable" -- and by the time I made it to the Romney exhibit booth after it had already been abandoned, while there was a line.

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