From NBC's Mark Murray
A Democratic source who lives in the battleground state of Pennsylvania tells First Read that he received a phone call yesterday that billed itself as a 45-second automated poll.

But it was really an anti-Obama push poll, the source says.

"Rather than having me press 1, press 2, etc, I was just to answer 'yes' or 'no' to every question which asked questions like (I'm paraphrasing}: 'Does knowing that the former head of Fannie Mae made millions of dollars while working there and worked on the Obama campaign make you less likely to support Barack Obama?'"
 
Or: "'Does the fact that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid have said they are going to raise taxes makes you less likely to vote for Barack Obama?'"
 
The source says the call ended by saying it was sponsored by LetFreedomRingUSA.com.

Colin Hanna, president of the conservative group, which is also running anti-Obama TV ads in key battleground states, confirms to First Read the existence of the poll. But he disagrees with the characterization of it as a push poll.

"A donor came to us and offered to fund the poll," Hanna says. He refused to release the name of the donor.

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
SPRINGFIELD, Va -- During his second rally today in this battleground state, McCain passionately emphasized the importance of Fairfax County here in Northern Virginia to winning the election.

"I want to remind you again, Fairfax County is key to this election," McCain said. "You know that. You know how important it is for us to win here. You know how important it is that we put this country in the right direction. I need your help for the next three days. Everyone here I want to promise you I will I'll do nothing but inspire Americans to serve a cause greater than their self-interest."

Virginia hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. In 2000, President Bush beat Al Gore in this county by 6,000 votes. But in 2004, John Kerry won the rapidly changing county by 44,000 votes.

McCain's frequent sidekick and introducer, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, did his best to diminish Obama's chances of winning the Old Dominion.

"What's this garbage about Obama gonna win Virginia? What is that about," Graham asked. "Chicago's 705 miles [away]. It might as well be on the moon compared to Virginia. I know Virginia. Virginia believes in lower taxes. Virginians fight the wars. The Virginians want opportunity, not a handout."

At the event, McCain also made his most pointed attack on Obama about his comments yesterday in Iowa that his win in that state's January caucuses "vindicated" his faith in America.

"My country has never had to prove anything to me, my friends," McCain said. "I've always had faith in it, and I've been humbled and honored to serve it. If I'm elected president, I'll fight to shake up Washington and take America in a new direction from my first day in office until my last. I'm not afraid of the fight, and I'm ready for it, and you're gonna fight with me."

Obama spokesman Bill Burton fired off this statement in response to McCain: "It's pathetic that John McCain would take a statement Barack Obama has been making for a year about his faith in the American people and distort it to attack his patriotism. Sadly, this is what we've come to expect from a desperate, dishonorable campaign that will say anything in a failed attempt to win this election."

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Carrie Dann
Yet another sign McCain and the GOP is in trouble in Virginia? The NRCC is sending out an attack release on the Democratic foe of 5th District GOP Rep. Virgil Goode. The press release slams Goode's Democratic challenger, Tom Perriello, connecting him with billionnaire investor George Soros and calling him "someone who feels more at home on the Upper Westside than he does in the heart of Virginia."

It's probably unlikely that Goode will lose his race next Tuesday; the nonpartisan Cook Political Report now lists the seat as a "Lean Republican" race.

But it's a reminder of just how much trouble the GOP is in Virginia, and in other seats nationwide where Republican incumbents long considered safe are now the subject of NRCC resources.

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones and Carrie Dann
Speaking to reporters today, Obama chief strategist David Axelrod addressed reports that Zeituni Onyango, the half-sister of Obama's Kenyan father, has been living illegally in the United States for four years. Axelrod expressed some skepticism about the timing of the news, which first broke in the Times of London and was confirmed by the Associated Press in the waning days of the presidential race.

"The campaign issued a statement on that," Axelrod told reporters, "And I don't have anything more to add to it, other than I think people are suspicious about stories that surface in the last 72 hours of a national campaign.

"I think that they're going to take that," he added, "They're going to put it in that context."

In a statement earlier today, the campaign said that "Sen. Obama has no knowledge of her status but obviously believes that any and all appropriate laws should be followed."

Campaign finance records indicate that Obama's aunt donated $265 to his campaign.  The Obama team said today that the money would be refunded, as foreign nationals are not permitted to donate to presidential campaigns in the United States.

Onyango has lived in a public housing complex in Boston since an immigration judge turned down her request for asylum in 2004.

*** UPDATE ***  Senior McCain campaign advisor Mark Salter declined to comment on the story, per NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy.  Salter told reporters on McCain's plane that "it's a family matter."

From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
POLK CITY, Fla. – With just 72 hours to go, the McCain campaign is hoping Florida is "Palin Country." Or at least that's what the signs said that were passed out at Palin's rally at the Fantasy of Flight Hangar Saturday, with no mention of the senator at the top of the ticket.

Palin is holding three rallies in a final swing around the Sunshine State's Gulf Coast and I-4 corridor, hoping to draw out additional support in the state's more conservative areas. She is focusing on issues that are particular concern in the state, like healthcare for senior citizens and the use of solar energy.

Her voice at times strained from her two months on the trail, Palin told a crowd in New Port Richey that Obama wants the government to take over healthcare, adding that such a move would not lower costs.

"Barack Obama goes around promising a new kind of politics, but then he comes here to Florida and he tries to exploit the fears and the worries about Social Security and Medicare to our retirees and that is the oldest and cheapest kind of politics there is," she said in Sims Park. "And enough is enough of that."

And here in Polk City – which she repeatedly referred to as Lakeland, a town 23 miles away – she emphasized her interest in solar power as part of the campaign's "all of the above approach" to finding domestic energy alternatives.

"God has so richly blessed you, Florida," she said.

 Palin will fly to North Carolina and Virginia for two additional rallies Saturday, her most to date. Her stump speech has been shortened to accommodate the additional travel, with less emphasis on Obama specifically. Instead, she is concentrating more on a broader approach, focusing on the concerns of Democratic control of Congress and the White House.

But some important attack lines remain, including the claims that Obama will raise taxes on the middle class and small businesses.

"And according to an independent analysis, our opponent's new policies will destroy nearly six million new jobs over the next decade," Palin said. "What is he thinking?"

 "You know what he is thinking?" Palin continued, ignoring one audience member, who yelled "He's not thinking." "Senator Obama has an ideological commitment to higher taxes."

 Palin has elicited the help of the state's popular governor, Charlie Crist, and Rep. Adam Putnam was at the Polk City stop as well.

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
EVANSVILLE, IN – Joe Biden told reporters last night that he hoped John McCain would end his campaign on a positive note. But this morning, he said it that has been "genuinely disappointing" to see his longtime Senate colleague use a Karl Rove playbook to try to win the White House.

"John McCain's campaign has gone way over the top," he said at an outdoor rally downtown in traditionally red-tinged Indiana. "They are trying to take the low road to the highest office in the land. It's not only George Bush's economic policies that John McCain has bought hook, line, and sinker. He's also bought Karl Rove's brand of political tactics. And it is disappointing. I never thought I'd see this from a McCain campaign."

Though Republicans have called Barack Obama "every name in the book," he told Hoosiers that if they work with the campaign and "choose hope over fear," that they'll call Obama something else: "The commander in chief and President of the United States of America!"

Biden kicked off November with the southwest Indiana stop, which apparently included an unannounced trip to a local church to attend mass on this All Saints Day. His wife, Jill, had to remind him about the Catholic holy day of obligation, only learning herself when she met a nun during a morning run along the Ohio River.

"I'll call my mom some time during the day and the first thing she'll ask me, 'Joey did you go to mass.' So you saved me, sister. You saved me," Biden said.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** 72 Hours To Go … I Want To Be Sedated: Hey, wait a minute, there's something familiar about that number 72. Remember the GOP's 72-hour program? It's amazing that the 2004 buzz phrase describing that GOTV program, which by all accounts was very successful in that election, has barely been mentioned this year. The ground-game buzz is all on the side of Obama. And the McCain decision to double down on TV -- rather than on the ground -- is going to be a tactical decision that gets debated inside GOP circles for some time.

*** Follow the schedules, not the polls: NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) sends along this observation: "Forget the polls, just look at what the candidates are doing and where they are spending money." At this time in 2004, he notes, Kerry-Edwards were campaigning in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Florida. In 2000, Gore-Lieberman were in the states of Missouri and Ohio, as well as in Florida. But in 2008, Obama and Biden AREN'T campaigning in Pennsylvania, Minnesota or Wisconsin. Instead, they're in Nevada, Colorado, Indiana, as well as the perennials of Ohio and Florida. "You do not have to read poll numbers -- just look at their travel schedule," Hart tells First Read. And as we learned yesterday, the Obama campaign is now spending money in Arizona, Georgia, and North Dakota.

*** McCain's Monday schedule: By the way, in a memo released last night, McCain campaign manager Rick Davis noted where McCain and Palin will be spending their final day of campaigning. "Gov. Palin will hit Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and Alaska in the final day of campaigning, while Sen. McCain will travel from Tampa, Florida, to Virginia, then Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and finish the night in Prescott, Arizona. The enthusiasm and excitement we generate on Monday will be the electricity that powers our 'Get Out the Vote' efforts on Tuesday."

*** Biden speaks! To the press! Biden yesterday held his first avail with the traveling press corps since September 7, NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli notes. Asked if he were being muzzled after some gaffes on the campaign trail, Biden answered, "If I'm muzzled, I don't know. I've done 200 interviews. I've been doing, you know, half a dozen to a dozen satellite feeds everyday. I'm doing shows, I mean, so, no one said anything to me about it."

*** Playing the Colin Powell card: Obama is using the Colin Powell endorsement in a closing TV ad this weekend. Why did this take so long?

*** Remember Bush? It's just amazing that the sitting president not campaigning this weekend. As the New York Times writes today, "It's the week before Election Day. Do you know where your president is? Probably not, and that is by design. With Senator John McCain lagging behind in the polls and many other Republicans fighting for their political lives, the nation's top Republican — President Bush — is intentionally lying low this week, and is likely to do so until after Americans cast their ballots to pick his successor."

*** Downballot thought of the day: Keep in mind, as the LA Times reports today, that the incoming House Democrats are not going to be your Nancy Pelosi liberals. They'll be winning in some very red districts. This will have a big impact on how the Democrats govern. Sure, the committee chairs will be very liberal, but the 218th vote the House Democrats will need will not be liberal; he'll/she'll be more conservative.

*** On the trail: McCain begins his day in Virginia, campaigning in Newport News and Springfield, and he later stumps in Perkasie, PA before heading to New York for "Saturday Night Live." Obama holds rallies in Henderson, NV, Pueblo, CO, and Springfield, MO. Biden has events in Evansville, IN, Marion, OH, and Bowling Green, OH. And Palin visits Polk City, FL, Raleigh, NC, and Glen Allen, VA.

Countdown to Election Day 2008: 3 days
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 68 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 80 days
 
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Here's a wrap of some of the tracking polls we're following:
Gallup has Obama up 11 points among registered voters (52%-41%), eight points in its traditional likely-voter model (51%-43%), and nine points in its expanded likely-voter model (52%-43%).

Washington Post/ABC has Obama ahead by nine points, 53%-44%.

And yesterday's Hotline/Diageo had Obama ahead by seven, 48%-41%.

The AP: "Privately, McCain's aides said their man trailed Obama by 4 points nationwide in internal polling."

In addition, a new Marist national poll shows Obama up by seven, 50%-43%.

The Washington Post, covering yesterday's Obama conference call on the state of the race, notes what appears to be the Democrats' early-voting advantage. "A surge in early voting by Democrats marks a reversal of the pattern that helped Bush win in 2004 and makes McCain's task more difficult. So far, 200,000 more Democrats than Republicans have cast ballots in Florida, while 19 percent of Democratic early voters in North Carolina did not vote in 2004. 'The die is being cast as we speak,' Obama campaign manager David Plouffe asserted. 'On Election Day, Senator McCain is not going to have to just carry the day but carry it convincingly.'"

More: "In Florida, Plouffe said, Republicans finished with a 40,000-vote edge among early and absentee voters in 2004, while Democrats currently have a 200,000-vote lead. He said Obama is doing better with Hispanics, including Colombians, Puerto Ricans and young Cuban-Americans, than did Sen. John F. Kerry. 'We're kind of out of the land of theory in a lot of these states. You're beginning to see how this election is likely to unfold,' Plouffe said. 'We're confident that we've got a lot of good voters left.' In Iowa, Democrats have cast more absentee ballots than Republicans on every day but one since voting began, Plouffe said. In Nevada, 43 percent of early-voting Democrats are people who have not voted before or only sporadically. But Plouffe stopped short of predicting victory in the states he described, instead reiterating the campaign's long-standing goal of expanding the map."

The New York Times looks at Obama's strategy of campaigning in conservative parts of battleground states -- like Springfield, MO, which Obama will visit today. "For Mr. Obama, the destination underscores a closing strategy of trying to increase Democratic vote totals in all regions of the country, with an eye on winning more swing states as well as increasing the popular vote. It also suggests an air of confidence at his standing elsewhere by scheduling a rally in a Missouri county that President Bush carried by 17 points in 2000 and 25 points in 2004."

ARIZONA: The LA Times offers a piece on tightening polls in Arizona. One irony -- an issue that appears, at least anecdotally, to be hurting McCain in his home state is his eschewing of earmarks, which Democrats in Arizona say are vital to their state's growth.

COLORADO: Mitt Romney stumps for McCain this weekend in Colorado.  The venue? Mr. Biggs Family Fun Center in Colorado Springs.

A whopping HALF of Colorado voters will have cast their ballots before Election Day. 

FLORIDA: The Miami Herald on the Hispanic vote: "[An] exit poll of more than 8,683 voters was paid for by the Democratic firm Bendixen & Associates and showed that McCain is winning 69 percent of voters in Miami-Dade who were born in Cuba, compared to Bush's 78 percent in 2004. The poll does not include results from the GOP-heavy absentee ballots but shows that while McCain is leading overall among Hispanic voters 53 to 47 percent, in Miami-Dade, Cubans, Venezuelans and Nicaraguans favor McCain. Respondents born in Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Mexico, the Honduras, the Dominican Republican and Puerto Rico lean toward Obama."

GEORGIA: An estimated 35% of Georgia voters will cast ballots before Election Day, some waiting in line for hours. 
 
NEVADA: Salon's Madden, on Nevada: "The trouble for McCain is that in the state's biggest counties -- Clark, which includes Vegas, and Washoe, where Reno is -- he appears to be losing his shirt faster than a problem gambler on the strip with a roll of quarters burning a hole in his pocket."

NORTH CAROLINA: High turnout in crucial Wake County forced an extension of early voting hours yesterday. 
 
PENNSYLVANIA: Ambinder points out: "If it's all about Pennsylvania, then the Obama campaign is betraying a certain confidence. At this point, there are no plans for Sen. Obama to visit the state between now and Tuesday."

Per NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy, McCain finished off his Ohio bus tour yesterday with a big-crowd (for him) rally in Columbus, OH with Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is something of a hero due to his sponsorship of an annual body building event in the area called Arnold's Classic. The two spoke at the 18,000-seat Nationwide Arena (a venue I've been told Bush and Schwarzenegger filled to capacity in 2004), but about a third of the hockey rink was cut off with a giant curtain and the entire section behind the stage was also empty.

  McCain had two new lines, one that subtly hit Obama for saying that his faith in the American people was "vindicated" by his victory in the Iowa caucuses. And another line about Obama supposedly saying that it was "selfish to oppose higher taxes.

Arnold was the big hit, and he hit Obama hard for being a lightweight and for wanting to follow the lead of socialistic countries in Europe, many of whom have since learned their lessons, according to Schwarzenegger. "We are at a tough time right now. Ohio cannot afford, America cannot afford the economic proposals of Sen. Obama. I tell you something, I left Europe four decades ago because of socialism has killed opportunities there. And many, many, many entrepreneurs and business leaders all left and have taken jobs with them. And I tell you, in recent years Europe has realized its mistakes, began rolling back some of its spread the wealth policies. And I tell you something, I tell you something. I am so fortunate that I had the chance of coming to the greatest country in the world, the United States of America."

Schwarzenegger also "mocked Democrat Barack Obama, saying 'he needs to do something about those skinny legs,' needs to buff up those 'scrawny little arms,' and put some meat on his ideas. McCain, on the other hand, 'is built like a rock."

Despite what the polls say, the New York Times writes that plenty of Democrats are nervous about the election. "Certainly, national and swing state polls suggest that Democrats might allow themselves a deep breath or two. But liberals are not inclined to relax, given the circumstances of their last two defeats. Hanging chad, the Supreme Court decisions, and Florida and Ohio's electoral problems: it is a lifetime of agita to staunch Democrats. The prospect of success now comes scented with dread."

Per Politico's Ben Smith, Geraldine Ferraro has endorsed Obama. Smith writes, "This was, in a way, the mistake we all made after the primary: Hillary's loyalists were almost all, like Ferraro, partisan Democrats. That's where her strength was. And those just weren't people who, in the end, could consider voting for McCain, or probably for anyone with an R next to his or her name."

Obama was able to work in a Halloween-themed hit on McCain while campaigning in Indiana yesterday, NBC/NJ's Athena Jones reports. "You know, I just came back -- my girls were doing some trick or treating and, you know, Malia and Sasha each year, every year they've got trouble deciding what they want to be for Halloween. But John McCain didn't have that problem. Just like every year he's going as George W. Bush. After 21 months, after three debates John McCain still has not been able to tell the American people a single major thing that he would do differently from George Bush when it comes to the economy. I mean you don't know what John McCain is gonna do because he doesn't talk about it, all he talks about is me."

Speaking of Halloween, Obama wasn't too pleased with the cameras following him as he took his daughter Sasha trick-or-treating. "Obama scowled at reporters here on Friday evening as he took a walk with his daughter in his Hyde Park neighborhood during a quick trip home for Halloween. Four days before the election, Mr. Obama squeezed a Chicago stop in between an afternoon rally in Iowa and an evening rally in Indiana. As trick-or-treaters walked nearby, he became agitated when a group of reporters and photographers began to approach him and his 7-year-old-daughter, Sasha. 'That's enough. You've got a shot. Leave us alone,' Mr. Obama said, according to a pool report of the moment. 'Come on, guys. Get back on the bus.'"

The Gore-acle speaks." Gore's visit to Florida, a state still up for grabs, marked the first time he's hit the campaign trail for Obama since endorsing him in June and speaking at the Democratic National Convention in August. Gore and his wife, Tipper, planned another rally in Pompano Beach later in the day."

"Barack Obama's aunt, a Kenyan woman who has been quietly living in public housing in Boston, is in the United States illegally after an immigration judge rejected her request for asylum four years ago, The Associated Press has learned… Information about the deportation case was disclosed and confirmed by two separate sources, one of them a federal law enforcement official. The information they made available is known to officials in the federal government, but the AP could not establish whether anyone at a political level in the Bush administration or in the McCain campaign had been involved in its release."

Per the Boston Globe: "Palin introduced herself to a nation as a conventional homemaker eager to shatter convention -- the hockey mom roughing up the power brokers, a reformer with a bipartisan streak. But that maverick image -- along with her poll numbers -- has been scuffed, if not reshaped. The designer eyeglasses are the same, but it's clear many voters outside the Republican base are looking at her through a changed lens."

 

CALIFORNIA: Gay married couples in California could face a legal nightmare if a proposed same-sex marriage ban passes on Tuesday. Per the LA Times: "Proposition 8 would amend the state Constitution to define marriage as only between a man and a woman, but the measure does not address what would happen to the estimated 16,000 same-sex couples who have tied the knot since gay marriage became legal in California on June 17." 

NORTH CAROLINA: "Some said fresh polling in North Carolina suggested that incumbent GOP Elizabeth Dole had fallen further behind since airing an ad that tried to tie Democratic rival Kay Hagan to atheists."

WASHINGTON: Most pundits aren't expecting another fantastically close election in the Washington governor's race. But authorities and party leaders are preparing -- just in case the rematch between Gov. Christine Gregoire and challenger Dino Rossi turns out to be a repeat of last cycle's photo finish.