From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones

The Democratic nominee's campaign announced this afternoon that Obama's grandmother has died at the age of 86. The nominee last saw her on Oct 23-24 when he flew home to Hawaii to see the ailing "Toot," who helped to raise him while his mother was overseas.

Video: Madelyn Dunham, the grandmother who raised Barack Obama in Hawaii has died after a long battle with cancer. NBC's Lee Cowan reports.

Here is the statement just released by Obama and his sister Maya Soetoro-Ng.

"It is with great sadness that we announce that our grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has died peacefully after a battle with cancer.  She was the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility.  She was the person who encouraged and allowed us to take chances.  She was proud of her grandchildren and great-grandchildren and left this world with the knowledge that her impact on all of us was meaningful and enduring.  Our debt to her is beyond measure.

Our family wants to thank all of those who sent flowers, cards, well-wishes, and prayers during this difficult time.  It brought our grandmother and us great comfort.  Our grandmother was a private woman, and we will respect her wish for a small private ceremony to be held at a later date.   In lieu of flowers, we ask that you make a donation to any worthy organization in search of a cure for cancer."

*** UPDATE *** The McCain campaign just issued a statement in response to the news. "We offer our deepest condolences to Barack Obama and his family as they grieve the loss of their beloved grandmother. Our thoughts and prayers go out to them as they remember and celebrate the life of someone who had such a profound impact in their lives."

From NBC's John Talty
College Park, Md. -- At a rally at the University of Maryland, Independent Party candidate Ralph Nader criticized the way the media covers the presidential race, citing the fact that Joe the Plumber has gotten more political coverage than the Nader-Gonzalez tandem.

Nader lamented that a third-party candidate has no real chance to win in the current system, he said, unlike the way in Western Europe. The presidential hopeful detailed three mountains that obstruct a third-party candidate, including the way debates are run.

"Every major poll since 2000 wants my name on the debates, but it doesn't matter," Nader said, though he didn't say which polls specifically have showed this. "Because it's a private government, you can't sue it under the Bill of Rights and as long as the networks cooperate and play ball by it…then it's a monopoly."

Nader, who recently set a Guinness Book record for most campaign stops in one day, kept with his roots in consumer protection. Nader discussed commercialization, which, he said, leads to everything and anything being up for sale, including this presidential election.

"Obama has raised more money from Wall St. and corporate lawyers than John McCain has," Nader said. "I haven't seen the people investing in him, looking for there to be change."

Obama has, of course, raised unprecedented amounts from small donors.

The former Green Party candidate delved heavily into the decline of education. He bemoaned schools' lack of focus on civics, economics, geography and government, claiming they focus more on technical skills.

"We've turned our education into either babysitters at the lower level or technical schools at the higher level," Nader said. "[Students] are placed in front of computer screens and told to just stare at the computer."

Nader ended things with a gloomy outlook to the future, stating that without a viable third party, Americans will continue to be disappointed by the candidates that are elected and that the country will deteriorate.

"The British Empire failed," Nader said. "The Soviet Empire failed; and the U.S. Empire will fail."

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- With the election one day away, Obama returned to a central theme of his campaign: McCain is not prepared to be the steward of the nation's economy at this difficult time.

The Democratic nominee congratulated his rival on the tough race he had fought before going on to riff about how electing him would mean a continuation of the bad economic policies of George Bush -- another of his campaign's main arguments.

Calling economy "central issue in this election," Obama reminded the audience here about a phrase McCain had uttered in the same arena, which he said showed the Arizona senator did not understand the depth of the economic crisis the country was facing.

"Remember what he said when he was here in Jacksonville on September 15th? That day, more than 5,000 jobs were lost and more than 7,000 homes were foreclosed on," he began. "The day before, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said we were in a 'once in a century' crisis. And yet, despite our economic crisis, John McCain actually came here, to Veterans' Memorial Arena, and repeated something he's said at least 16 times on this campaign. He said -- and I quote -- 'the fundamentals of our economy are strong.'"

The crowd booed and Obama, said "You don't have to boo, you just have to vote" -- a line he uses several times a day. He went on the say that line by McCain summed up an "out-of-touch on-your-own economic philosophy" that favors the wealthy and big corporations and not the middle class.

For months, Obama and his running mate Joe Biden have been portraying themselves as champions of the middle class, fighters for working people, and their efforts appear to have paid off. Per the latest NBC/WSJ poll, 42% say they have either a great deal of confidence or quite a bit of confidence that Obama will be able to get the nation's economy back on track, compared with 27% who say that about McCain.

Over the course of the last week, Obama's speeches have contained a running countdown to election day -- "in one week", "in six days" -- which today became simply "tomorrow."

"Tomorrow, at this defining moment in history, you, each and every one of you, can give this country the change that we need," he said, before telling the audience not to slow down or let up over the next 36 hours in their efforts to elect him.

"This is gonna be close here in Florida. This is gonna be close all across the country," he said. "Understand at this point, I've made the arguments. Now it's all about who wants it more. Who believes in it more."

The stop in Duval County, which George Bush won with 58% of the vote in 2004, was the first of a three state swing. After Florida, Obama was headed to Charlotte, NC, in a county John Kerry won by nearly 12,000 votes and then to Manassas, VA, where Bush got 53 percent in the last election. He spent Sunday stumping across Ohio and for a moment this morning forgot that he was now in the Sunshine State, substituting Ohio for Florida. When the crowd corrected him, he said "I've been traveling too much."

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli

LEE'S SUMMIT, Mo. -- Kicking off an election eve sprint in the Show-Me State, Biden told an energetic crowd that America is "on the cusp of a new brand of American leadership" with Obama.
 
"That's what we need," he said. "If we want to answer all those questions being raised around that kitchen table, we need to get out and elect Barack Obama president of the United States tomorrow!"
 
It wouldn't be a Biden speech without at least one "rhetorical flourish." The Delaware senator said McCain has been trying to convince the nation he "was not John McCain" -- when he meant to say George Bush.
 
"The truth is, he's not the John McCain I served with a long time," Biden said after realizing his mistake. "Freudian slip, you know, you know."
 
McCain, Biden challenged, is taking the "low road" to the White House, and closed by again predicting that Obama's foes will eat their words tomorrow night.
 
"They're calling Barack Obama every name in the book. But ladies and gentlemen, listen to me closely. Tomorrow night they'll have to call Barack Obama something else: the 44th president of the United States of America!"
 
Both vice-presidential candidates are rallying in Missouri today, with Palin set to campaign in Jefferson City. Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill introduced Biden and said it was the choice of a running mate that showed the country who really should lead it.
 
"Barack Obama chose the very best person in the country that could be president of the United States," she said. "And well, let's just say John McCain didn't."
 
Later today, Biden heads to Ohio for two rallies, before closing out two months on the road with a rally in Philadelphia, not far from his Delaware home. And to build the numbers, he'll be joined there by Jimmy Rollins and other members of the World Series champion Phillies.

From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger

LAKEWOOD, Ohio – It was not the best of beginnings for Palin Monday morning.

At the first of the Alaska governor's six rallies of the day, there was plenty of room to spare. The crowd at Lakewood Park was sparse, to say the least, perhaps one of the smallest she has seen in weeks.

And then, speaking of Obama's views on coal, she repeatedly stumbled on the word "bankrupting," calling it "bankruptcing." But she recovered to offer a stinging attack on Obama's double speak, suggesting the city of San Francisco has a truth-telling effect on the Democratic presidential candidate.

"There must be something about San Francisco," she said. "I heard on Fox News today, it's like a truth serum where when he's there, he seems to be more candid."

It was at a San Francisco fundraiser earlier this year that Obama got into trouble, suggesting rural voters "cling to religion and guns" because jobs were being lost. Palin referred to them Monday as "bitter clingers" and "cling-ons." (There goes the Star Trek vote?)

And it was Obama's comments to the San Francisco Chronicle on fees for coal emissions that brought on Palin's most recent attacks.

"So he's talking to the San Francisco Chronicle, and he says that sure, if industry wants to try to build these coal-fired power plants, they can go ahead and try, but they're only gonna be able to do it in a way that bankruptcies the whole industry, the coal industry," she said. "Now he's comfortable with this happening."

Palin has drawn strong applause in recent days by evoking fear of a Democratic-controlled White House and Congress, and suggesting they will cut defense spending by 25 percent. But she took the charge a step farther Monday.

"This in a time of multiple conflicts and obvious danger still to the homeland," she said. "What do they think? That the terrorists have suddenly changed their minds and no longer do they seek to destroy America and her allies and all that it is that we stand for – freedom, democracy, equal rights, tolerance all those things that we stand for? Do they thing the terrorists have changed their minds?"

Throughout the rally, Palin fed off the "we will win" chants from the audience, at one point adding "We must win" because of the "far left wing of the Democrat party."

Palin has six rallies in five states planned for the final day of campaigning. After midnight on the West Coast, she will begin an overnight flight to Alaska. She is expected to touch down before sunrise in Anchorage and travel the hour to her hometown of Wasilla, with just enough time to vote before traveling back to join McCain in Phoenix Tuesday night.

 "I'll tell ya, this is the right place to be for us to kick off this final day of campaigning," she told the suburban Cleveland crowd. "This is the right place to be. You can just feel it here, you can just feel it here in Ohio, victory's coming, we can do this, we can win, we can win Ohio. And we must win for you."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Obama has now led in 111 straight national polls with methodologies we trust (looking back through the Pollster.com national trend), including the trackers back to Sept. 22-24 when a Gallup Tracking poll showed the race tied at 46%-46%. Since a Big Ten poll that showed McCain up 46%-45%, Obama has led in 117 of 119 polls.

by NBC's Rehema Ellis

If you haven't gotten a political campaign e-mail so far, you're probably one of few Americans. You've probably read a blog on the 2008 election, or watched a candidate's speech or talk show appearance on YouTube.  I know I have.

Many have coined the 2004 presidential election "the first Internet election"  and I think the campaigns have taken the use of the Internet to new heights.

If you've signed up for one of the parties' newsletters, you're probably already bombarded by daily updates on what's happening inside the campaigns. You probably get multiple e-mails asking for donations. And it works! Thousands of voters have given to both candidates in record numbers this year, changing political fundraising forever.

You can't deny the campaigns are better organized on the Web this time around, but that's because they have hired experts to run Internet strategy and have staff that reach out to bloggers to get out their message. And who would have imagined that candidates would have thousands of friends on their Facebook and MySpace pages? Despite all this, experts agree that it's hard to measure at this point how helpful this is in gaining votes.

Even the debates this year saw an Internet connection: candidates took on questions via email. Talk about democracy!

But all of this freedom of information comes with a price. There are people out there posting the wrong information not only about the candidates, but about the voting process.

So I know everyone wants to get their information within the click of a mouse, but you really must examine that the information comes from an official source. I'm all for riding this Internet wave of information but I want all of us to do it the right way.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** Obama has a clear lead: With just a day left until Election Day, Obama holds an eight-point lead over McCain among likely voters, 51%-43%, according to the final national NBC/WSJ poll before the election. That's down slightly from Obama's 53%-to-42% advantage from almost two weeks ago. Still, to put his current lead into perspective, the last NBC/WSJ survey before the 2004 presidential election showed Bush with a slim one-point edge over Kerry, 48%-47%. Bush went on to win that election, 51%-48%.

Video: NBC's Lester Holt speaks with NBC's Chuck Todd, who gives the most up-to-date projected electoral map.

Looking inside the crosstabs, Obama's advantage is largely based on his overwhelming success with African Americans (winning them 90%-3%), Latinos (68%-27%), and 18 to 34 year olds (59%-38%). It's about as solid of a three-legged support stool as any candidate could ask for. Obama also wins independents (48%-38%), blue-collar voters (51%-44%), suburban voters (49%-44%), and Catholics (49%-46%). McCain, meanwhile, has the advantage among evangelicals (78%-19%), those 65 and older (53%-40%), white men (54%-42%), and white women (48%-47%).

Video: NBC's First Read team discusses undecided voters, how much turnout matters and how big a Democratic wave could be.

One more thing: 30% say they've already voted, and those voters break by an identical 51%-43% margin. One thing that might keep the McCain folks somewhat hopeful about our numbers: We have Democrats with a +10 advantage on party ID; McCain's team believes the electorate won't produce that margin tomorrow.

*** Liking McCain but loving Obama: The poll also shows that McCain and Obama are pretty well liked by voters. McCain has a 47%-39% fav/unfav rating, while Obama's is larger at 56%-35%. But what's striking is the intensity gap -- almost twice as many respondents (44%) rate Obama "very positive" than they do for McCain (24%). In short, McCain's supporters like him, but Obama's LOVE him. Think about that 44% number for a minute: Obama's overall ballot number is 51%, meaning that 86% of Obama's supporters have a VERY positive view of him. Not since Reagan in 1980 has a base of supporters loved its nominee so much. Also, for the second-straight NBC/WSJ poll, Palin has a net-negative fav/unfav (39%-48%), while Biden has a net-positive one (50%-30%). In fact, if you add up Obama's and Biden's favorable scores, you get 106; for McCain-Palin, it's 86.
***CLARIFICATION*** For the number crunchers out there, here's the math on that whopping 86% "love" number..  Assuming that the 44% of respondents who say that they have a "very positive" impression of Obama are also in the 51% of respondents who support the Democratic nominee, that means that 44/51 (86%) of Obama's supporters LOVE their guy.  That percentage is substantially lower for McCain: a 24% "very positive" rating, factored into 43% overall support, equals a 56% "love" factor for the Republican contender.

*** The Comfort factor: In addition to finding Obama likeable, voters are becoming more and more comfortable with him and the idea of him becoming president. Over the course of this general election, NBC/WSJ co-pollsters Peter Hart (D) and Neil Newhouse (R) have identified one key question in the poll for Obama: Do you identify with his background and values? And Obama has always trailed McCain on this score. Until now. In our new poll, an identical 57% say they identify with the candidates' background and values. What's more, 58% say they're "optimistic and confident" or "satisfied and hopeful" that Obama would do a good job if he becomes president; 46% say that of McCain. And 42% say they have either a great deal of confidence or quite a bit of confidence that Obama will be able to get the nation's economy back on track. That's compared with just 27% who say that about McCain.

*** Other numbers: Also in the poll, Democrats hold a 12-point advantage over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot (48%-36%); just 11% believe the country is headed in the right direction; and only 26% approve of Bush's job as president.

Video: One member of the first family will hit the trail on the final day of the campaign, but it won't be President Bush. While first lady Laura Bush is set to stump for votes in Kentucky, the president has been notably absent from the trail. NBC's David Gregory reports.

Says Newhouse, "Of those voters who disapprove of the job that Bush is doing, McCain loses them to Obama by a whopping 74%-20% margin." McCain needs another 5-10 points among Bush disapprovers to cut Obama's lead. The poll was conducted of 1,011 likely voters from November 1-2, and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1%

*** When McCain stopped being McCain: The New York Times' Maureen Dowd raised an interesting discussion point yesterday that could become catchy with the CW: While McCain has tried to cast doubts about Obama, "it is McCain who is the enigma, even though he entered the race with one of the best brands in American politics." One of the more popular phrases many a columnist will write this week -- if McCain loses -- will be something like: "McCain stopped being McCain." There will be a lot of Wednesday-morning quarterbacking that he moved to far to the right to get the nomination, and that he didn't distance himself more from Bush. When you look at the current NBC/WSJ poll and some of the voting groups McCain is losing, it's in the ideological middle of the country. The whole idea of a McCain nomination was that he was supposed to be the guy who could compete best in the middle. Instead, he's spent a lot of time courting the right. 

*** Are you ready for some … more McCain and Obama? In addition to all the campaigning, interviews with the two presidential candidates will air tonight at halftime of Monday Night Football. Also, an "Ask Obama" special appears on MTV this morning. Just askin' ourselves, but have we gotten to the point where we've experienced too much of these candidates? No more SNL, please; no more Ellen; no more Monday Night Football. (In fact, is there a venue where they haven't appeared?) Americans are probably looking forward to having their escapism back.

*** On the trail: McCain holds a whopping seven events today: He starts off with a rally in Tampa, FL, then goes to Blountville, TN (which is near Bristol, VA), then to Pittsburgh, then Indianapolis, then Roswell, NM, then Henderson, NV, and he concludes the day with a 2:00 am ET rally in Prescott, AZ. Meanwhile, Obama makes three stops, holding rallies in Jacksonville, FL, then Charlotte, NC, and finally Manassas, VA at 9:00 pm ET. Biden campaigns in Lee's Summit, MO, Zanesville, OH, and Copley, OH before ending his evening with a rally in Philadelphia. And Palin is in Lakewood, OH, Jefferson City, MO, Dubuque, IA, Colorado Springs, CO, Reno, NV, and Elko, NV before flying home to Alaska.

Countdown to Election Day 2008: 1 day
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 66 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 78 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Voting problems? Call 866-OUR-VOTE or log on to 866ourvote.org.

Here's the Wall Street Journal on the new NBC/WSJ poll: "Sen. Barack Obama enters Election Day with a solid, though narrowing, lead over Sen. John McCain as both men sprint to the finish line of their long presidential race."

Here's our writeup of the poll on MSNBC.com: "To put Obama's eight-point edge into perspective, the final NBC/WSJ survey before the 2004 presidential election had President Bush with a slim one-point lead over John Kerry, 48 to 47 percent. Bush went on to win that election, 51 to 48 percent."

More: "'The McCain campaign is going to have to thread the needle to pull out a victory on Election Day,' says Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. 'The campaign is facing an uphill battle.' Hart puts it this way: 'The results of this survey says it is going to take more than rain, sleet or snow to derail the Obama express. He is holding all the high cards, and that is a hand that is hard to beat.'"

The final USA Today/Gallup poll has Obama ahead among likely voters, 53%-42%. Asked to predict the state of their personal finances four years from now, 48% say they'd be better off under a President Obama; just 27% say that of a President McCain. Asked about the nation's security in four years, an equal 37% say the country would be safer under a President Obama or a President McCain. Asked about federal income taxes, 48% say their taxes would be higher in four years under Obama; 50% under McCain. Asked about health care costs, 42% say they would rise under Obama; 61% say that of McCain. That means Obama has neutralized the advantage McCain once held on national security and taxes while maintaining a significant advantage on handling the economy and health care."

The Washington Post/ABC tracking poll has Obama up, 54%-43%. The poll also "finds that Obama has firmly reestablished his advantage on handling the economy, beaten back a challenge on taxes and has an edge in terms of perceptions about which candidate would better deal with an unexpected major crisis."

The Washington Post: "The waning hours of the longest presidential campaign in history elicited a fresh round of stinging attacks from Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain and their supporters on Sunday, a departure from the positive messages that candidates normally revert to before an election… Republicans in Pennsylvania brought back the controversial comments of Obama's former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., despite McCain's admonition that he should not be used as a political weapon, and the campaign unleashed robo-calls that employed the withering dismissal that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton made of Obama's experience when the two were competing against each other in the Democratic primaries."

Meanwhile, "Obama cut an ad that used Vice President Cheney's endorsement of McCain to reinforce his central argument that his rival represents a third term of the unpopular Bush administration."

"Barack Obama and John McCain uncorked massive get-out-the-vote operations in more than a dozen battleground states yesterday -- millions of telephone calls, mailings, and door-knockings in a frenzied, fitting climax to a record-shattering $1 billion campaign,"

The AP looks at some of the myths of the 2008 election cycle. "Facts have taken a beating in Campaign '08. Each in his own way, John McCain and Barack Obama have produced enduring myths, amplified by their running mates and supporters. When a non-licensed plumber who owes back taxes and would get a tax cut under Obama is held out by McCain as a stand-in for average working Americans who should vote Republican, you know truth-telling is taking a back seat to myth-making. McCain has clung tenaciously to many of his distortions throughout the campaign, yielding on a few. Obama has taken a different tack when he is called on his misstatements. Although perhaps too late to really set the record straight, he's edged closer to the facts."

"Obama's fist bump. Palin's lipstick. McCain's plumber. Clinton's tears. We've been through a lot in the two-year slog that will be remembered as Campaign 2008. Much of it was temporarily fascinating. And at the same time utterly forgettable. What will endure? What will fade faster than a campaign promise? The answers depend, in part, on who wins Tuesday night."

The San Jose Mercury News has the weather scoop: "Sunshine and temperatures in the 60s and 70s are predicted on Election Day for the key battleground states of Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Florida, Nevada and New Mexico, according to the National Weather Service... The only states where the race is tight and where significant rain is forecast are Virginia and North Carolina. There's also a chance of some sprinkles in Philadelphia for part of the day, while western Pennsylvania cities like Pittsburgh remain dry and warm."

A final round of Quinnipiac swing-state polls shows Obama up two points in Florida (47%-45%), up seven in Ohio (50%-43%), and up 10 in Pennsylvania (52%-42%).

COLORADO: Depending on how you feel about the NFL (and the presidential contest), this one's either a brilliant move or an unspeakable outrage. Before yesterday's Broncos-Dolphins game at Invesco Field, the venue where Obama delivered his nomination acceptance speech, a liberal group flew a plane over the area with an anti-McCain banner sailing behind. The message: MCCAIN IS A RAIDERS FAN.

If Colorado is a squeaker, we may be up late tomorrow night. The state's totals may not be available until Wednesday, warn election officials, because of mail-in ballots that have yet to be processed. "Nearly 70 percent of the record number of mail-in ballots sent to voters this year have been returned. But that still leaves more than a half-million mail-in ballots. Because only a handful of counties offered weekend drop-off for mail-in ballots, most of those will probably pour into county offices today and Election Day." 

FLORIDA: Rudy Giuliani blames the press.  Stumping in Winter Park, Florida, with Sen. Mel Martinez and House GOP incumbent Ric Keller, the former New York mayor complained that "the media has decided who your president is going to be."

Rain in parts of Florida didn't stop a last-minute push of early voters.  Per the St. Pete Times: "Many of the Obama supporters waiting in line Sunday said they didn't trust mail-in ballots. "Not in Florida," said Debra Gooden of Clearwater." (Democrats tend to be more likely to vote early in person, while registered Republicans in the state are more likely to mail in a completed ballot.)

MISSOURI: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports: "A record amount -- at least $45 million -- has been spent on TV campaign advertising this year on Missouri broadcast stations by all the major candidates on Tuesday's ballot. All that money has gone for more than 101,000 TV ad spots, almost a quarter of them aired on St. Louis stations." The totals for both presidential candidates? Ten million for Obama and eight for McCain. Another big chunk of change came from the state's gubernatorial candidates, battling out their hot race there. 

OHIO: Obama is up 52%-47%, according to Ohio Poll conducted by the University of Cincinnati.

Ohio officials insist that the Election Day woes of 2004 will not be repeated this year.

NORTH CAROLINA: One of those quirks we haven't mentioned on the North Carolina ballot: "A straight-party vote does not include a vote for president or judicial candidates. If you want to vote a straight-party ticket and for president, you must fill in separate blanks. To vote in judicial races, which are nonpartisan, you must flip to the back of the ballot." 

VIRGINIA: Good numbers from the Richmond Times-Dispatch: "To put on an election in Virginia: 2,400 polling places, 10,600 pieces of equipment, and 30,000 election officers."

The Washington Post takes a look at battleground Prince William County in Northern Virginia.

Politico previews McCain's busy day today. "John McCain plans to barnstorm the country Monday with a final campaign push that will take him to seven states. McCain will start his last day of campaigning with a midnight rally in Miami. After a few hours of sleep, he'll start again in Tampa, Fla., and then head to stops in Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico and Nevada, according to a memo e-mailed to supporters."

"McCain also plans to tape a satellite interview to air during "Monday Night Football." ESPN will broadcast that and one with Barack Obama during halftime of the Redskins-Steelers game. "Monday Night Football" has an average viewership of 12.2 million, and this week's game pits two teams with swing-state fan bases in Virginia and Pennsylvania."

With the Pennsylvania GOP airing an ad on Jeremiah Wright, Politico's Martin asks: What if McCain had played the Wright card. "Conversations with a number of veteran GOP consultants indicate that using Wright may have helped McCain with one set of voters — but would have hurt with others and not ultimately proved decisive in a contest subsumed by larger external forces such as the economic crisis and the unpopularity of President Bush and the Republican Party. 'This was a race that was about the economy and about change,' said Stuart Stevens, a longtime GOP adman who worked for Bush's campaigns. 'It really wasn't about anything else, and all the king's men couldn't make it about anything else.'"

The Boston Globe: "But McCain is fighting through his last days as a presidential contender on others' terms. Once the protagonist of his own heroic narrative, he now appears in the role of a supporting actor, at times seeming overwhelmed by historical forces and bigger characters - a scorned President Bush, the sudden financial crisis, the nation's first black presidential nominee, and McCain's own vice presidential choice."

McCain Campaign Manager Rick Davis sat down with the press on the campaign plane. "It was a moment as candid as it was rare and wholly unexpected," wrote Politico's Martin. "Outside of television interviews and campaign conference calls, Davis rarely talks to reporters. But in a relaxed, 45-minute conversation in the rear press compartment of McCain's campaign jet, the campaign manager gripped a can of Bud Light and talked at length about nearly every element of what has been a grueling, two-year-long roller coaster ride."

He argued that high turnout could help McCain (not Obama, as has been the convention wisdom): "If Barack Obama hasn't closed the deal with them after two years in the campaign and a year as the nominee of their party, maybe they're holding out for a good reason," Davis told reporters en route to an after-midnight campaign rally here. "Now, maybe they just decided not to vote and they don't want to say that because everyone they know is voting. So we'll see. If we see the vote drop below 130 million, you'll know they didn't show up. If it goes over you'll know they came out, [and] I think that's a good chance for us to win."

And he compared his team to the Rays: "It's been a hard campaign," he acknowledged. "It's just a tough environment. And we're not playing on a level playing field. One candidate's got clean uniforms, a lot of training and all the money in the world. I feel like I'm the Tampa Bay Rays playing against the New York Yankees. I mean, I know it's hard for them, but you know we're still in the hunt. And we may be going to extra innings here, who knows."

Didn't the Rays lose in the World Series?

The New York Times' Zeleny writes about what may be one of the secrets to Obama's success, if he wins tomorrow: his even-keel demeanor. "While Mr. Obama smiles less than he once did, gauging his mood simply by looking at him is risky: his baseline cool temperament has seldom spiked along the rocky points of his journey. In a campaign where he has slogged through more competitive election days than any recent nominee, only one more lies ahead. And it is the long path of the Democratic primary, which lurched from the ups of Iowa to the downs of Ohio, that his friends say provided Mr. Obama with a steady equilibrium as he enters this final turn in the race for the White House."

"Obama, if he wins, appears likely to draw several of his top aides, including some Cabinet secretaries, from three key sources: Democratic governors midway through their second and final terms in office; former top appointees of Bill Clinton's administration; and political pros from Obama's hometown of Chicago," AP writes. "McCain, a former Navy officer whose father and grandfather were admirals, is likely to rely more heavily on current and retired military officials. He probably would draw more people from the corporate world, and somewhat fewer people from think tanks and academia, than would Obama, according to people close to the candidates."

The New York Post's Election Eve Special has a cover with Obama with an arm around Bruce Springsteen and the headline, "New Boss." Subhead: "Polls show win as O gets Bruce boost." Headline inside: "Barack Born to Run away with it."

"Almost two long years later, Obama enters the campaign's waning hours a strikingly different candidate, one who may win the presidency tomorrow largely on the strength of his economic message," the Boston Globe writes. "Among the many ways in which Obama has evolved as a candidate, none is as fundamental as his shift in focus from the war to the economy. The metamorphosis reflects both the changed political climate over the past 21 months, and the agility Obama has shown in responding to it."

Obama on his aunt who is living in the US illegally: "'If she is violating laws, those laws have to be obeyed,' Obama said in an interview with Katie Couric aired last night on CBS News. 'We're a nation of laws. Obviously that doesn't lessen my concern for her. I haven't been able to be in touch with her. But I'm a strong believer you have to obey the law.'"

The New York Times writes, "Outspent and under siege in a hostile political climate, Congressional Republicans scrambled this weekend to save embattled incumbents in an effort to hold down expected Democratic gains in the House and Senate on Tuesday. With the election imminent, Senate Republicans threw their remaining resources into protecting endangered lawmakers in Georgia, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Oregon, while House Republicans were forced to put money into what should be secure Republican territory in Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Virginia and Wyoming."

More: "Sensing an extraordinary opportunity to expand their numbers in both the House and Senate, Democrats were spending freely on television advertising across the campaign map. Senate Democrats were active in nine states where Republicans are running for re-election; House Democrats, meanwhile, bought advertising in 63 districts, twice the number of districts where Republicans bought advertisements and helped candidates."

FLORIDA: The Miami Herald looks at those three Miami Congressional races -- Republican incumbents Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and the Diaz-Balart brothers -- to see how the once safe-GOP reps came to be fighting for their political lives.

MINNESOTA: After attending a rally for Obama in St. Charles, MO, Hillary Clinton holds her final campaign event of 2008 with Al Franken in Minnesota.

"Months of tension between Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and his Democratic rival, Al Franken, spilled into their last debate Sunday night as they traded heated accusations about allegations made in a lawsuit against the incumbent. … 'You have an ad that's defaming my wife,' Coleman said. 'I think there's a line in this business. You can take any shot you want at the candidate. Mr. Franken, rather than rejecting it, is promoting it.' …

"'This is not about Norm Coleman's wife,' Franken replied. 'This is about Sen. Coleman's political sugar daddy.'"

And then… "I think folks have a right to look at the character, to look at the record," Coleman said. "Jokes about rape, is that a line? Writing pornography for Playboy, is that a line? Calling a Supreme Court justice sexist, is that a line?"

NORTH CAROLINA: That Liddy Dole "Godless" ad won't be running in the last days before the election.

PENNSYLVANIA: The Philly Inquirer looks at local races in Bucks County, a one-time GOP stronghold where Democrats are expanding their national-ticket toehold down the ballot.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Some might be interpreting the latest Mason-Dixon polls as showing weakness for Obama since he has not reached 50%.
 
It's true that the bad news for Obama in these polls is, as we wrote in First Read, that he hasn't reached 50%. But it should also be pointed out that Obama's position has actually gotten stronger -- when looking at the Mason-Dixon poll trendlines -- particularly in states like Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. In other states, movement has been negligible and within the margin of error.
 
In Colorado, Obama has gained five percentage points from the previous Mason-Dixon poll, Sept. 29-Oct. 1, when the candidates were tied at 44%. In the latest poll, Obama leads by five, 49%-44%.
 
In Nevada, Obama has gained 10 points since August, when McCain led by six, 47%-41%, and two points since their Oct. 8-9 poll. In the latest poll, Obama leads 47%-43%.
 
In Virginia, Obama has gained six percentage points since a Sept. 29-Oct. 1 poll that showed a three-point McCain lead, 48%-45%. In the latest poll, it's Obama who leads by three, 47%-44%.
 
As far as the overwhelming majority of the undecided voters being white, keep in mind that black and Hispanic/Latino voters have consistently favored Obama by wide margins in public polling and have already moved toward the Democratic nominee. In states like Missouri, for example, where the race is within the margin of error, black voters only made up 8% of the electorate, and Hispanics/Latinos 1% in 2004. In Colorado, blacks made up just 4% of the electorate in 2004 and Hispanics made up 8% in exit polls.

That doesn't mean that McCain might not have an advantage with remaining white voters, since he is winning a majority white voters generally in public polling and focus groups. But it is also telling that many undecideds are Bush voters and have not yet decided on McCain.
 
Here's what we wrote in First Thoughts for context:
*** Good news and bad news: Our new map comes at the same time as the release of a final round of Mason-Dixon polls, and they contain both good news and bad news for the candidates. The numbers: Obama is ahead five points in Colorado (49%-44%), two in Florida (47%-45%), four in Nevada (47%-43%), and three points in Virginia (47%-44%). Meanwhile, McCain is up one in Missouri (47%-46%), three in North Carolina (49%-46%), and two in Ohio (47%-45%). The good news for Obama -- and bad news for McCain -- is that if Obama holds on to his leads in CO, FL, NV, and VA, he's going to easily win on Tuesday, racking up well over 300 electoral votes. But the bad news for Obama -- and good news for McCain -- is that Obama is below 50% in all of these polls. And if undecideds break decisively for McCain, that's how he would pull off the upset. But if the 2004 presidential contest taught us anything, it's that turnout sometimes is more important than undecided voters. In our final NBC/WSJ poll before the 2004 election, Bush held a one-point lead over Kerry, 48%-47%. And there was the assumption that undecideds breaking for the challenger over the incumbent would propel Kerry to victory. But that didn't happen. By the way, our final NBC/WSJ poll comes out first thing tomorrow morning.

The quirky breakdown of electoral votes in Nebraska means that voters in a single Congressional district in the eastern part of the state are being heavily courted by the Obama team.  If the national electoral vote tally is close, then the one electoral vote in the Omaha-area Second Congressional district would loom large.

With Obama apparently ahead in competitive states such as Virginia, the presidency may not hinge on Omaha's vote.  But what will matter is the Obama effect on Rep. Lee Terry, the five-term Republican congressman from Omaha.

Read more about this unique House race from MSNBC.com's Tom Curry here.

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Barack Obama wants to see more laughter in politics. That's what he told some 60,000 people at a rally here Sunday during the first event of a three-stop swing through a battleground where polls show a tight race.

The senator praised his rival's appearance on Saturday Night Live during his usual riff on the need for a new kind of politics and for people to come together to solve problems. He said he had missed the live show, but had caught the Arizona senator on YouTube.

"We can argue and debate our positions passionately, but all of us have to summon the strength and grace -- and the humor -- to bridge our differences and unite us in common effort," he began. "John McCain was funny yesterday on Saturday Night Live, but that's part of what our politics should be about, being able to laugh at each other, but also laugh at ourselves, being able to understand that all of us black, white, Hispanic, Asian, Native American; Democrat ad Republican, young old, rich and poor, gay, straight, disabled, non disabled – all of us are in this together."

The rally outside the Ohio Statehouse was meant in part to rev up enthusiasm from supporters and encourage them to vote early. Obama began his remarks by calling on all those who had not voted to go down the street to a polling place today to vote.

John Kerry won Franklin County by more than 48,000 votes in 2004 and Obama was headed next to Cleveland in another Kerry county, where rocker Bruce Springsteen was set to perform. The senator ends his Ohio swing in Cincinnati, a county Bush won in 2004 where he opens to drive up turnout and to help reduce McCain's possible victory margin there.

Obama, who was accompanied by his wife and two daughters, told the audience that his faith in the American people had been vindicated by 21 months of campaigning, "regardless of what happens on Tuesday." On Friday, the McCain campaign had taken issue with his use of the word "vindicated" during a speech in Des Moines, suggesting that he would have felt differently had he lost the Iowa caucuses.

For the second time in a week, Obama flubbed a pop-culture reference in trying to tie McCain to the unpopular Bush.

"When it comes to the economy – when it comes to the central issue of this election – the plain truth is that John McCain has stood with this President every step of the way," he said. "He hasn't been a maverick, he's been a sidekick.He's like Kato to the Green Lantern. Ya'll remember that, those of you who are over a certain age."

Kato was the Green Hornet's sidekick, not the Green Lantern's.

Earlier this week in Raleigh, NC, Obama made a mistake in referencing a popular 1970's sitcom as he spoke about Social Security. He cited Sanford and Son, but then said "I'm coming, Weezy," a reference to The Jeffersons.

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- Biden refused to let a few dozen boisterous McCain supporters step on his message today, and instead incorporated a counter-rally into his appeals to unify the nation after the final votes are tallied in 48 hours.

"We can't move past the politics of division unless after this election is over -- if God willing we win -- we reach out to the very people out in the outer parking lot," He said. "I know you find some of that obnoxious... [But] somebody's got to be big enough to stand up and end this."

Biden, speaking just feet from the "Unconquered" statue honoring the Seminole tribe at Florida State University's football stadium, actually made several references to the protesters, who brandished colorful signs, blared a siren and shouted slogans like "Obama Not Ready" and "Country First."

"The fact of the matter is, maybe those McCain folks could hear this, they'd be interested," Biden said as he railed against McCain's support for the Bush Administration. "I thought it, I thought was the siren, it's just the whine." He later called the protesters "good folks" who were simply committed to McCain.

He largely stuck to the rest of his message, again using the "endorsement" of Dick Cheney yesterday to argue that there was no doubt that McCain would continue the policies of the past eight years.

"Look, it's not surprising. Dick Cheney has been wrong on everything for the last eight years," Biden said. "John McCain and Sarah Palin can have Dick Cheney's endorsement. We'll settle for people like Warren Buffett and Colin Powell."

This was the first of Biden's three rallies in the Sunshine State today. Biden will also hit Gainesville and Daytona, before flying late tonight to Missouri to begin a marathon final day on the trail.

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
WALLINGFORD, Pa. -- Deviating slightly from his stump speech this afternoon here in the exurbs of Philadelphia, McCain connected his friend and introducer -- former Pennsylvania Gov. and Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge -- with President Bush, thanking them both for keeping America safe.

"My friends, it is not an accident to me that there and I think that Tom Ridge and President Bush deserve some credit for the fact there's not been another attack on the United States of America since 9/11, and this is our first leader," McCain said of Ridge's service at the Department of Homeland Security.

President Bush's name has been largely absent from McCain's stump speech. And if it's mentioned, it's usually only uttered when McCain is trying to distance his positions from those of the unpopular president, as he did later in today's event.

"My friends, this is the fundamental difference between Sen. Obama and me," McCain said. "We both disagree with President Bush on economic policy. The difference is that he thinks taxes have been too low, and I think that spending has been too high."

Then McCain repeated a memorable line from the third presidential debate, "My friends, I'm not George Bush. If Sen. Obama wanted to run against George Bush he should have run four years ago."

McCain hyped up his prospects in Pennsylvania, despite recent polls showing him behind. And he said that his campaign's recent resurgence is due to "a kind of tidal and seismic shift in the last couple of weeks" caused by Joe the Plumber.

"I've been in a lot of campaigns," McCain said. "I know when momentum is there. This enthusiasm, this kind of welcome. We're gonna win Pennsylvania, and we're gonna win this election. I sense it and I feel it and I know it."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** Our final map: With two days before Election Day, the final NBC News map shows Obama remaining above the 270 electoral-vote mark, with a 286-157 lead over McCain. Last week, Obama held a 286-163 advantage. Our changes: We moved Montana and North Dakota (which has same-day voter registration) from Lean McCain to Toss-up. In addition, we moved Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Jersey (the latter of which we should have moved a couple of weeks ago) from Lean Obama to Likely Obama. So here's where we stand:

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, WI (227 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: CO, IA, NH, NM, PA, VA (59 votes)
Toss-up: FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, NC, ND, OH (95 votes)
Lean McCain: AZ, GA, NE 02, SD, WV (34 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (123 votes)

*** Good news and bad news: Our new map comes at the same time as the release of a final round of Mason-Dixon polls, and they contain both good news and bad news for the candidates. The numbers: Obama is ahead five points in Colorado (49%-44%), two in Florida (47%-45%), four in Nevada (47%-43%), and three points in Virginia (47%-44%). Meanwhile, McCain is up one in Missouri (47%-46%), three in North Carolina (49%-46%), and two in Ohio (47%-45%). The good news for Obama -- and bad news for McCain -- is that if Obama holds on to his leads in CO, FL, NV, and VA, he's going to easily win on Tuesday, racking up well over 300 electoral votes. But the bad news for Obama -- and good news for McCain -- is that Obama is below 50% in all of these polls. And if undecideds break decisively for McCain, that's how he would pull off the upset. But if the 2004 presidential contest taught us anything, it's that turnout sometimes is more important than undecided voters. In our final NBC/WSJ poll before the 2004 election, Bush held a one-point lead over Kerry, 48%-47%. And there was the assumption that undecideds breaking for the challenger over the incumbent would propel Kerry to victory. But that didn't happen. By the way, our final NBC/WSJ poll comes out first thing tomorrow morning.

*** Southern discomfort: While everyone is trend-spotting demographics and geography through the Obama prism, don't forget to examine the state of the Republican Party through those same lenses. In the House, for instance, the grim picture for the GOP is on full display. According to one Cook Report estimate by House editor David Wasserman, the GOP -- in a worst-case scenario -- could have as few as 16 members left in the Northeast (versus 79 for the Dems). In the South, the GOP lead in House seats could be in single digits, 74-68. In the Midwest, 61-39 could be the House seat split. And finally, out West, powered by the Dem strength on the Pacific coast, the Dem lead could 66-32. Step back and look at those numbers: Nearly half of the House GOP caucus may be rooted in the South. Just as it wasn't healthy for the Democratic Party when it appeared rooted in just the Northeast and the Left coast, neither is it good for the GOP to be seen as simply a regional political party.

*** Vice squad: It shouldn't be a surprise that Dick Cheney supports the GOP presidential ticket, but Obama didn't let anyone forget that support after Cheney said nice words about McCain and Palin while campaigning yesterday in his home state of Wyoming. "Earlier today, Dick Cheney came out of his undisclosed location and he hit the campaign trail," Obama said, per NBC/NJ's Athena Jones. "He said that he is, and I quote, 'delighted to support John McCain.' So I'd like to congratulate Sen. McCain on this endorsement because he really earned it." And the Obama campaign has now cut a brand-new TV ad noting McCain's "Cheney endorsement' (versus Obama's endorsements by Colin Powell and Warren Buffett). Perhaps this is why we haven't seen Bush and Cheney (until yesterday) on the campaign trail… 

*** Biden as Bill Clinton? NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli, who frequently covered Bill Clinton during the primary season and now travels with Biden, says that he's been feeling a sense of déjà vu lately. In the past three days, Biden has held FOUR events in venues where the former president rallied supporters for his wife before the Ohio and Pennsylvania primary contests. (In all four -- Allentown and Williamsport, PA, and Lima and Marion OH -- Memoli notes that Clinton's crowds were bigger.) The coincidence makes sense in that the Scranton-born Biden has much the same mission on the road that Clinton did: to vouch for his candidate in small towns, often in red counties. The larger-than-life former president appeared to move the needle with his early-vote blitzes of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas. Can Biden do the same?

*** What "spread the wealth" means? The Boston Globe has a great piece from a Western, PA, county that Kerry won 51%-48%. It found folks open to Obama's message in an area hit hard by steel plant closings. But it touched on something we hadn't yet heard -- that for some voters "spread the wealth" isn't necessarily a rich vs. middle class argument. Rather, it's redistribution from middle class to poor. As the Globe puts it, "[T]he notion may play on racist fears of black welfare recipients siphoning money from working-class whites -- fears that have special resonance since Obama is black."

*** On the trail: McCain begins his day campaigning in Pennsylvania, holding events in Wallingford and Scranton before heading to a town hall in Peterborough, NH and then an after-midnight rally in Miami. FL. Obama spends his entire day in Ohio, attending rallies in Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati. Palin also is in Ohio, hitting Canton, Marietta, Columbus, and Batavia. And Biden campaigns in Florida, stopping in Tallahassee, Gainesville, and Dayton Beach.

Countdown to Election Day 2008: 2 days
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 67 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 79 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Voting problems? Call 866-OUR-VOTE or log on to 866ourvote.org.

The New York Times says McCain and Obama "began their final push for the White House on Saturday across an electoral map markedly different from four years ago, evidence of Mr. Obama's success at putting new states into contention and limiting Mr. McCain's options in the final hours. Mr. Obama was using the last days of the contest to make incursions into Republican territory, campaigning Saturday in three states -- Colorado, Missouri and Nevada -- that President Bush won relatively comfortably in 2004. In what seemed as much a symbolic tweak as a real challenge, Mr. Obama bought advertising time in Arizona, Mr. McCain's home state."

"Mr. McCain started the day in Virginia, a once-solidly Republican state that Democrats now feel is within their grasp. But he then turned his attention to two states that voted Democratic in 2004 -- Pennsylvania and New Hampshire -- reflecting what his aides said was polling in both states that suggested the race was tightening. Still, his decision to spend some of his time in the final hours on Democratic turf signaled that Mr. McCain had concluded that his chances of winning with the same lineup of states that put Mr. Bush into the White House was diminishing." 

The Boston Globe: "While Barack Obama enters the final days of the presidential campaign with a clear lead in the polls - but not so big as to rule out a surprise victory for John McCain - the impact of the 2008 presidential campaign will depend not only on who wins but also on whether the results signify a deeper realignment in American politics." The paper has five questions this campaign may answer: (1) Is the "Reagan Revolution" over? (2) Is America prepared to move beyond its racial divisions? (3) Are young people becoming a driving force in American politics? (4) How much do Americans care about their image in the world? (5) What does it mean to be a conservative? 

Is an Obama popular-vote victory assured? One forecasting firm thinks so. "If it's the economy, stupid, then Senator Barack Obama will win Tuesday's presidential election, according to IHS Global Insight, a Waltham economic forecasting firm. The firm's election equation, which has correctly forecast the popular vote winner in 13 of the past 15 presidential elections, predicts Democrat Obama will take 53.1 percent of the vote to 46.9 percent for Republican John McCain. IHS Global Insight analyzes pocketbook issues to predict the outcome of presidential elections. The equation's only misses came in the close elections of 1968 and 1976. (The firm considers its forecast of an Al Gore victory in 2000 as correct since Gore won the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College)."

"While campaigning for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Wednesday, [House Republican leader John] Boehner told a small crowd at a bar in the college town of Oxford that failing to vote 'yes' or 'no' on an issue meant a lawmaker was a 'chickens---.' The Ohio congressman said the last thing the country needs is to have a "chicken" in the White House."

"Like a Hollywood blockbuster whose conclusion feels assured but still sets the heart racing, the endgame of this election has gripped black America with a powerful mixture of emotions," AP writes. "Obama's potential victory represents a previously unimaginable triumph over centuries of racism. But beneath the hope and pride lies fear: of polling inaccuracy, voting chicanery, or the type of injustice and violence that have historically stymied African-American progress."

COLORADO: The Rocky Mountain News' Sprengelmeyer on Obama's choice of locale for a Colorado rally yesterday: "With its blue-collar roots, Pueblo has long been a popular destination for Democratic presidential candidates, including Sen. John Kerry in 2004 and Obama earlier in this year's campaign. Some in Saturday's crowd fondly remember then-candidate John F. Kennedy's appearance at Pueblo's Dutch Clark Stadium during the 1960 campaign."

FLORIDA: The Miami Herald takes a look back at how Florida became an unexpected battleground that could give Obama a decisive clinch on the presidency -- or could give McCain a stunner of a comeback.

The newest Mason-Dixon poll out of Florida shows a dead heat (Obama 47%, McCain 45%). Pollster Brad Coker points to the survey's undecided voters as those who may ultimately break the state McCain's way. "McCain's best hope, he said, might be the fact that the 7 percent of voters who remain undecided overwhelmingly are white -- and could decide to vote against Obama becoming America's first black president. 'I have no clue if you'll see it,' said Coker, who noted that such last-minute-voter movement has been seen in other races involving black candidates. "All I'm saying is, you could see them go for McCain. I wouldn't be shocked."

A St. Pete Times columnist points out that Gov. Charlie Crist didn't do his party any favors by extending early voting hours in Florida. "He said it was the right thing to do. It's obviously not in his party's interests. If it were, GOP leaders would have been demanding it." More: "Crist's secretary of state, Kurt Browning, was on record as saying there was no need to extend early voting, despite a call by Florida's Democratic members of Congress to do so."  

MISSOURI: Obama leads in St. Louis County, which includes the St. Louis suburbs but not the city of St. Louis, by 17 points, according to a Politico/Insider Advantage poll. Kerry won the county by nine points in 2004. McCain, however, lead by 3 statewide in the poll.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: The Union Leader's DiStaso says Tuesday's race has the potential to redefine the state's electorate: "For New Hampshire on Tuesday, there is this pending question: Was the Democratic sweep of major offices in the 2006 mid-term elections a knee-jerk reaction to Bush and the unpopular Iraq war? Or has this historically fiscally conservative and socially libertarian state truly turned blue, like its Northeast neighbors?" 

NORTH CAROLINA: Obama maintains a 54%-39% lead in Wake County, home to Raleigh, in the Research Triangle, according to a Politico/Insider Advantage poll. That may not sound surprising, but Bush won the county in 2004, 51%-49%. McCain and Obama were tied in the poll statewide, 48%-48%. 

OHIO: A new Columbus Dispatch poll shows Obama holding a lead. Factoid of the day: "If Obama's lead of 52 percent to 46 percent in the new poll holds, he would become the first Democrat to win more than 50 percent of the Ohio vote since Lyndon B. Johnson did in 1964."
(Earlier, we incorrectly referred to the Dispatch poll as the Mason-Dixon poll. That poll shows McCain with a 47-45 lead.)

PENNSYLVANIA: The Boston Globe goes to Rochester, PA, in Beaver County, a swing county northwest of Pittsburgh that Kerry won 51-48, or by 2,200 votes out of about 83,000 votes. "I don't believe Obama's a socialist," said Hrelec, a 58-year-old Democrat and bar owner who voted for George W. Bush twice, and who is undecided this year. "The working guy in this country needs a break." Most didn't buy the "socialism" argument, citing that even Republicans voted for the $700 billion bailout plan. "Still, there remains a deep distrust of big government programs here, and strong skepticism about Obama. A number of voters feared he would transfer wealth from the middle class to help people 'who don't work' or who don't deserve it." … "The concept of wealth redistribution is as unpopular here as it is in most of America, [Muhlenberg professor Chris] Borick said, and the notion may play on racist fears of black welfare recipients siphoning money from working-class whites -- fears that have special resonance since Obama is black."

More: "[I]n an economy like this one, the success of McCain's argument may hinge less on ideology, and more on whether he can convince voters that Obama's real purpose -- as the GOP radio ad implies -- is to transfer wealth from the middle class to the poor, rather than from the rich to everyone else. Kathy Lucci, a 48-year-old saleswoman at a jewelry store in downtown Rochester, voted for Bill Clinton and Al Gore, but she plans to back McCain on Tuesday. She and her husband work hard, she said, and they give generously to the St. Jude Society, the Veterans of Foreign Wars, and virtually every child selling candy bars for school or sports. But it bothers her, she said, when she stands in line to buy hamburger at the grocery store and sees someone using a food voucher to buy steak. 'When he's talking to people about spreading the wealth,' she said of Obama, 'I don't think he's talking to the middle class.'

"Hrelec disagrees. And as he sat in his quiet restaurant the other day, he seemed much more inclined to support Obama because of his middle-class tax cuts than to spurn him because of his tax hikes for the rich."

The Philly Inquirer front-pages a to-do list for John McCain. "He must get overwhelming support from his party's rural base and siphon away working-class Democrats in the Pennsylvania rust belt. Barack Obama's expected big vote in Philadelphia and its suburbs must underwhelm. And rain in the eastern part of the state wouldn't hurt." 

VIRGINIA: The Mason-Dixon polling in the state, which shows Obama up just three points over McCain (47-44%), indicates that McCain is winning the vets vote. "Nearly 60 percent of veterans prefer McCain, who spent 5½ years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. Virginia is home to more than 800,000 veterans, putting it second to California."

McCain opened SNL -- with faux Sarah Palin, Tina Fey -- putting on a mock QVC infomercial, selling "pork" knives, McCain Fine-Gold (to commemorate his campaign finance law), which was presented by Cindy McCain and a set of Joe action figures, including Joe the Plumber, Joe Sixpack and Joe Biden (who talks for 45 minutes when you pull the string).

More, courtesy of the New York Times: "Ms. Fey even poked fun at reports of strife between Ms. Palin and Mr. McCain, telling the camera quietly, 'OK, listen up everybody, I'm going rogue right now, so keep your voices down,' and offering 'PALIN 2012' T-shirts. Mr. McCain asked: 'Look, would I rather be on three major networks? Of course. But I'm a true maverick – a Republican without money.' And he gave a unique distillation of his closing argument. 'So when you go to the polls on Tuesday, remember, Country First,' he said, before adding a new coda: 'As a reminder, all undergarments are non-refundable.'"

"Responding to a report that a Kenyan relative of Senator Barack Obama was living in the United States illegally, his campaign said Saturday that he had no knowledge of her immigration status and that 'any and all appropriate laws' should be followed," the New York Times reports. More: "Some Democrats suggested that the timing of the disclosure could have been politically motivated, and some immigration lawyers said that for government officials to disclose information about an asylum applicant was unethical or perhaps illegal." 

Per NBC's Mike Kosnar, a senior Immigration and Customs official confirmed that the leak of the news that Obama's aunt was living illegally in the United States has been referred to the Department of Homeland Security Inspector General and the ICE Office of Professional Responsibility (ICE internal affairs) for possible action. The official said, "They are looking into whether there was a violation of policy in publicly disclosing individual case information."

Now that doesn't necessarily mean that the information for the AP story breaking the news came from ICE agents or personnel, Kosnar adds. But this is the agency that would be handling the case and have the most information about Obama's aunt, along with the immigration court, so ICE is the logical place to start.

It is likely Obama's aunt was on a list of fugitive aliens, just like thousands of other illegal immigrants. But, obviously, people live for years in the US after receiving deportation orders. Fugitive apprehension teams usually target suspects with criminal records before they go after simple immigration violators.

Hillary Clinton pens an op-ed in the New York Daily News, laying out why she supports Obama. "We cannot afford four more years of the same broken ideological policies. Barack Obama must be our President. Joe Biden must be our vice president. And Democrats must once again clean up an economic mess the Republicans left behind. We've done it before, and we'll do it again."

"Sarah Palin unwittingly took a prank call Saturday from a Canadian comedian posing as French President Nicolas Sarkozy and telling her she would make a good president someday. 'Maybe in eight years,' replies a laughing Palin." They also talked about going hunting together and Carla Bruni. Palin clearly didn't understand through the accent some of the jokes being played. In the end, they told her they had pranked her and after getting the radio station's call letters, she hands the phone back over to an aide. The McCain-Palin response: "Governor Palin was mildly amused to learn that she had joined the ranks of heads of state, including President Sarkozy and other celebrities, in being targeted by these pranksters. C'est la vie."

Here's the prank call audio.

ALASKA: "Democratic Sen. Daniel Inouye provided a campaign boost Saturday to embattled Republican Sen. Ted Stevens, predicting that his colleague from Alaska will win re-election and overturn his conviction on appeal. 'I am absolutely confident that Ted Stevens will be sworn into the Senate while he appeals this unjust verdict,' said Inouye, D-Hawaii, a longtime friend of Stevens. 'I am certain that this decision in Washington, D.C., will be overturned on appeal.'" …
 
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid released this statement in response to Inouye: "While I respect the opinion of Senator Daniel Inoyue, the reality is that a convicted felon is not going to be able to serve in the United States Senate. And as precedent shows us, Senator Stevens will face an ethics committee investigation and expulsion, regardless of his appeals process. This is not a partisan issue and it is unfortunate that Senator Stevens has used his long time friendship with Senator Inouye for partisan political gain."

MINNESOTA: On Thursday, MSNBC.com's Tom Curry reported that Democratic Senate candidate Al Franken told the crowd at a St. Paul NARAL event that "being a racist and a sexist was a good calling card for the Reagan Administration." (Franken was noting Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito's one-time membership in a group called "Concerned Alumni of Princeton," which questioned the elite university's affirmative action policies.) Now, the Reagan Administration is firing back. Nine former Reagan officials (including AB Culvahouse, tapped to lead McCain's VP selection early this summer) have issued a scathing response to Franken's comments. "Those of us who served Ronald Reagan and the nation find these outrageous comments to be highly offensive and hateful," reads the lengthy press release, which calls upon Franken to apologize for the remark. "Al Franken also owes an apology to all of us who dutifully served our nation in the Reagan Administration and don't deserve to be subjected to Al Franken's vile and malicious slurs."