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  • Lugar rules out cabinet job

    From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
    GOP Sen. Richard Lugar says he does not want to be Secretary of State or to join the Obama cabinet in another capacity.  In response to speculation that Obama was considering Lugar for the State Department, a spokesman says the 76-year-old ranking Republican on Foreign Relations has definitely ruled it out. Lugar's spokesman says the senator has good relations with both Biden and Obama -- and looks forward to improving bipartisan cooperation on foreign policy from his position on the Foreign Relations Committee.

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  • House Dems and a message of caution

    From NBC's Mike Viqueira
    House Democrats are coordinating a message of caution with President-elect Obama in an effort to keep expectations on the left within the realm of the doable.

    Last night, we heard Speaker Nancy Pelosi call for a "deliberate" approach to legislation. She and other leaders are mindful of the pent-up demand from the base of the party for quick action on issues like Iraq now that the impediment of the Senate filibuster has been substantially reduced.

    "We can't turn it all around on a dime," says a top Dem staffer. "Expectations are going to have to be managed." The aide says that this message has been agreed to by Obama and Pelosi.

    The House Dem leadership is mindful of what happened at the outset of the Clinton Administration and are eager to avoid the impulse to overreach as they did in 1993 and drive the wagon train right off the cliff.

    We will hear from Pelosi at noon ET. We are hearing that the first order of business in the House will be a new stimulus package. Then they want to take up two items right off the bat that were stalled by presidential vetoes -- SCHIP and stem cell research funding -- in an effort to demonstrate the difference between having a Democrat in the White House and having a Republican there.

    With an expanded majority in the House of the challenges that Dem leaders will face is keeping everyone in line on crucial votes. Whereas before leaders could point to the narrow margin of their majority as rationale to stay within ranks, now there will be a temptation for people to take a walk, knowing that there is a vote cushion. Dem leaders will work to overcome that. Their House caucus will also be more moderate, diluting the influence of the dominant liberal faction and this new dynamic could serve as a potential source of friction.

    On the other hand, rank-and-file Republicans in the House who have any hope of influencing legislation, even in the smallest of ways, may find themselves in a if-you-can't-beat'em-join'em mode. Another salutary effect of a larger margin in the numbers here is that the party discipline that was required to win votes may be relaxed for Republicans as well, and there may be more crossing of the aisle to vote for Democratic initiatives. Having said that, the loss of yet more moderate Republican seats -- like Chris Shays' -- means that the House GOP will become more conservative as a group, and there are fewer members who may be inclined to join Democrats on anything.

  • First thoughts: The 44th President

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
    *** The 44th President: In just a little more than four years, an Illinois state senator who delivered a rousing speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention will now become the 44th president of the United States and the country's first African-American president. As of publication time, Obama gained 349 electoral votes to McCain's 173, (just before publication NBC News named McCain the "apparent" winner in Missouri. But North Carolina (15) and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District are still undecided. In addition, Obama won the popular vote, 52%-46% -- the first time a Democrat won more than 51% since LBJ did it in 1964. But Obama's election wasn't the only good news for the Democrats last night. They picked up five Senate seats (with GA, AK, OR, MN still outstanding), 1 governorship (MO), and at least a net of 17 House seats (with some still outstanding).

    VIDEO: Watch Obama's victory speech.

    *** Putting 'Country First': As for the man who lost last night, he delivered a concession speech that might stand the test of time. "Sen. Obama and I have had and argued our differences, and he has prevailed," he said. "No doubt many of those differences remain. These are difficult times for our country. And I pledge to him tonight to do all in my power to help him lead us through the many challenges we face. I urge all Americans...  I urge all Americans who supported me to join me in not just congratulating him, but offering our next president our good will and earnest effort to find ways to come together." It was a pitch-perfect speech, and will spur the same questions that we heard after Gore's concession speeches: Where was that person on the campaign trail? John McCain and his alter ego Mark Salter have always had a sense of history and it came through last night.

    VIDEO: Watch McCain's concession speech.

    *** Payback and geography: Obama's victory last night was a payback of sorts for Democrats. He won the state that eluded Gore in 2000 (Florida), as well as the one that escaped Kerry in 2004 (Ohio). But those weren't the only battleground states Obama went on to win. In fact, he won in several different parts of the country: 1) the Midwest, especially the states surrounding Illinois like Iowa, Indiana, and Wisconsin; 2) out in the West, in Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico; 3) the Rust Belt, in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania; and 4) the New South, including Florida, Virginia, and (perhaps North Carolina). The only places where Obama didn't win: the Deep South and the Plains. By the way, take a look at Indiana one more time. This is a state Bush won by 20 points… TWENTY?!?!?? And Obama flipped it. Every other flip Obama made was explainable in some way -- demographics, etc. But to flip Indiana, not a growth state like Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina or Florida. If any state screams, "It was the economy, stupid" it was Indiana.

    *** Keys to the Keystone: Lost in Obama's impressive 11-point win in Pennsylvania is that McCain's Western PA strategy worked. The problem? There weren't enough votes out there. Eastern PA, from the Philadelphia suburbs to Scranton (thanks Joe the Senator and Hillary), went in blowout margins for Obama. Obama overperformed Kerry in places like Lackawanna -- where Scranton is – which went for Obama, 63%-36%. Kerry carried it 56%-42%. We weren't sure Obama could hold THAT margin. It was the same story all throughout the Eastern counties – Lehigh (51%-48% for Kerry, 58%-41% for Obama); Luzerne (51%-48% for Kerry, 54%-45% for Obama); Monroe (which Bush won by four votes, went for Obama 58%-41%); Northampton (Kerry 50%-49%, Obama 56%-43%). In the Philly 'burbs, Obama got big margins out of Bucks, Chester (which Bush won) and Montgomery counties. In fact, in Montgomery, Obama got 249,000 votes from a 60%-39% win; Kerry got 222,000 from a 56%-44% victory. In Western PA, First Read was watching three counties -- Beaver, Washington and Fayette, all counties Kerry carried narrowly. McCain flipped each of them, but the three counties combined had about 227,000 TOTAL votes. (For more states, see Battleground section below.)

    VIDEO: NBC's Chuck Todd analyze the results that led to Obama's victory.

    *** Obama's four-legged chair: Our final NBC/WSJ poll before the election showed that Obama had a three-legged stool of support that contributed to his lead over McCain -- African Americans, Hispanics, and 18-29 year olds. And that poll (and others like it) proved to be right. Obama won African Americans, 95%-4%; Hispanics, 66%-32%; and 18-29 year olds, 66%-32%. But Obama had one extra bit of support that turned a three-legged stool into a four-legged chair: college-educated whites. McCain narrowly beat him here, 51%-47%, which helped reverse a 17-point deficit Kerry had with all whites in 2004 to the 12-point deficit Obama had last night. And it's what helped Obama do so well in suburban counties like the ones above in Pennsylvania or the ones in the I-4 corridor of Florida or the ones in Northern Virginia. That's the difference, folks, between losing an election and winning one.

    *** More exit numbers: Obama claimed the center, winning independents, 52%-44% and moderates, 60%-39%. McCain slightly underperformed among evangelicals, winning them 74%-24%; Bush won them in 2004, 78%-21%. In addition, 60% viewed Palin as unqualified to be president, compared with 66% who saw Biden as qualified. What's more, 42% said that their economic situation was worse off than it was four years ago. Obama won those people, 71%-28%. And Bush was a big drag on McCain: 71% said they disapproved of Bush's job, and those people broke for Obama by a 67%-31% margin. By the way, Bush makes a Rose Garden statement on last night's election at 10:40 am.

    *** Highest turnout rate since '08 -- 1908: Provided the number stands, the turnout rate for yesterday's election was the highest in 100 years, according to the estimate from turnout guru Dr. Michael McDonald at George Mason University. Almost 137 million (136,631,825) went to the polls -- 64.1% of the voting-eligible population. 1960 saw 63.7% of the populace go out to vote; In 1908, 65.7% voted. It was, of course, the most people ever to go to the polls topping 2004's 122 million. That's 12% increase from 2004. For those wondering why the current total vote in the presidential adds up to approximately 117 million, note that it's going to climb. There is still a ton of vote missing on the West coast.

    *** It could have been worse: That may be the new slogan of the 2008 Republican Party. The Congressional bloodbath was bad, but it wasn't as bad as some Republicans feared it would be last week. Ted Stevens may yet survive (4,000 votes); Minnesota Senate is headed for a recount; Saxby Chambliss still has some chance to eke out 50% though the trendlines don't look good and a ton of votes (perhaps a million) appear to be outstanding in Oregon, meaning Gordon Smith's fate may not be known for a few days. And in the House, it appears the Democratic pickup could be in the mid-20s, not the 30+ some had feared. Still, the glass isn't half full for the GOP, it simply has some condensation.

    *** What's next Grand Old Party: It's hard not to look at the map -- particularly in the House -- and not view the GOP as a regional party right now. If it weren't for the party's relative strength in the South, the party would be in even worse shape. Later this week, as the party deconstructs this election, the recriminations will begin. Who will emerge as the next group of leaders? Mitch McConnell survived re-election, but will he survive any leadership challenge? What about House GOP leader John Boehner? No doubt he'll be challenged. Still, will McConnell and Boehner be the true leaders of the minority party? There will be a spirited race for the RNC chairmanship. State chairs from Michigan and South Carolina will run as will some former governor, maybe even Newt Gingrich. A group of current and former governors will also get together and attempt to have a say in the party. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana even has an Iowa visit planned later this month; Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin and Jeb Bush could all also play roles. As will Mark Sanford and Haley Barbour. Bottom line, there is a massive leadership vacuum inside the Republican Party and there are no shortage of candidates who will attempt to fill that vacuum. The first thing to watch for: Will the fight be to do this from inside the RNC or will there be a DLC-like organization that emerges from the outside?

    *** Some first clues: NBC-WSJ GOP pollster Neil Newhouse did a post-election survey last night, and here's what he found: Just 12% of those surveyed believed Palin should be the GOP's new leader; instead 29% of voters said Romney, followed by 20% who say Huckabee. Among GOPers, it was Romney 33%, Huckabee 20% and Palin 18%. Look for more from this survey later today. 

    *** Transition watch: All eyes are on Rahm Emanuel as he ponders whether to take the White House CoS job or stay in Congress and attempt to some day become Speaker of the House.

    *** For those about to Barack, we salute you: NBC/NJ's Athena Jones wonders: Just how many new babies in the United States – and throughout the world – will be named Barack?

    Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 64 days
    Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 76 days

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  • Obama wins

    The New York Times front page: "OBAMA." Subheadline: "Racial barrier falls in decisive victory."

    The NY Times' Nagourney: "The election of Mr. Obama amounted to a national catharsis -- a repudiation of a historically unpopular Republican president and his economic and foreign policies, and an embrace of Mr. Obama's call for a change in the direction and the tone of the country. But it was just as much a strikingly symbolic moment in the evolution of the nation's fraught racial history, a breakthrough that would have seemed unthinkable just two years ago."

    The Washington Post: "Obama makes history." "Obama, 47, the son of a Kenyan father and a white mother from Kansas, led a tide of Democratic victories across the nation in defeating Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a 26-year veteran of Washington who could not overcome his connections to President Bush's increasingly unpopular administration." 

    The Washington Post's Balz lead: "After a victory of historic significance, Barack Obama will inherit problems of historic proportions. Not since Franklin D. Roosevelt was inaugurated at the depths of the Great Depression in 1933 has a new president been confronted with the challenges Obama will face as he starts his presidency."

    "His general-election campaign had gone stale. For weeks, he had watched Sen. John McCain suction up the oxygen in the race, driving the news coverage after the boisterous Republican convention in St. Paul, Minn., and suddenly drawing huge crowds with his new running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin," the Washington's Post's Kornblut writes. "Convening the meeting that Sunday in the office of David Axelrod, his chief strategist, Obama was blunt: It was time to get serious.

    "'He said, 'You know, maybe we can just win it on the issues. But I don't think so,' recalled senior adviser Anita Dunn. With the debates approaching and just seven weeks until the election, "his charge to everybody was 'Guys, we're back in combat mode,'" Dunn said. And then, the next morning, a global earthquake hit: Lehman Brothers, the giant investment firm, filed for bankruptcy, triggering the biggest corporate collapse in U.S. history and an international financial meltdown, and transforming the presidential race."

    "Historic victory" is the six-column banner headline of the Boston Globe.

    The LA Times Barabak: "In winning the White House, Obama modified the electorate:About 1 in 10 of those casting ballots Tuesday were doing so for the first time. Though that number was about the same as four years ago, most of the newcomers were younger than 30, about a fifth were black, and a fifth were Latino. That was greater than their share of the overall population, and those groups voted overwhelmingly for Obama." 
     
    "Race proved to be no discernible handicap, even among the small-town, working-class whites who were considered most resistant to the black political newcomer from Chicago," writes the LA Times. More: "Obama improved on past Democratic performances among all groups, with the singular exception of seniors. He improved on 2004 nominee John F. Kerry's totals among Jews, Protestants and Catholics. While Kerry split women's votes with Bush, Obama won a decisive majority. Moreover, Obama won the votes of 4 in 10 white men -- higher than the last five Democratic presidential nominees, according to a National Journal study of exit polls -- and nearly half of white independents."

    The NY Daily News: "Change has come" is the cover headline below a smiling Obama.

    The NY Post: "Obama wins." "Barack Obama scored a barrier-breaking victory tonight to become the first black president of the United States -- capping a 22-month quest that tapped into a national hunger for 'hope' and 'change.'" 

    The http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/11/05/historic_victory/lead: "Senator Barack Obama of Illinois was elected the 44th president of the United States and the nation's first black commander in chief yesterday, his triumph ushering in an era of profound political and social realignment in America."

    "This is one of those moments in history when it is worth pausing to reflect on the basic facts," writes the New York Times' editorial board. "An American with the name Barack Hussein Obama, the son of a white woman and a black man he barely knew, raised by his grandparents far outside the stream of American power and wealth, has been elected the 44th president of the United States. ... Mr. Obama will now need the support of all Americans. Mr. McCain made an elegant concession speech Tuesday night in which he called on his followers not just to honor the vote, but to stand behind Mr. Obama. After a nasty, dispiriting campaign, he seemed on that stage to be the senator we long respected for his service to this country and his willingness to compromise. That is a start. The nation's many challenges are beyond the reach of any one man, or any one political party."

    "And yet Obama's clear-cut victory, bolstered by strong majorities of his own party in both houses of Congress, can be read as a mandate for some very specific policy changes that could, by themselves, have momentous impact. Withdrawal from Iraq. Renewal of the six-decade quest for national health insurance. The launch of a major government-funded quest for renewable energy," the Boston Globe writes. "Beyond the policies, Obama's election will stand forever amid the great milestones of America's racial history, the end of a torturous progression from emancipation to the civil rights movement to the election of the first black president. And yet the biggest change of all - the one that the hundreds of thousands of supporters who came to Grant Park are expecting -- will be intangible: The change of tone in the country."

    "Millions of black voters across the country turned out to help elect Barack Obama the first African-American president yesterday, and as they did, they reflected not just on the course of a historic campaign, but on the history of a nation. From Florida to Arizona, Chicago to Boston, black Americans said they were writing a new chapter in a progression that began long before Obama burst onto the scene at the Democratic National Convention in 2004. The moment was tinged with poignancy at the prices paid by generations before them who could have never imagined a black man winning the highest office in the land."

    AP: "Throngs packed plazas and pubs around the world to await US elections results last night and today, many inspired by Barack Obama's promise of change amid a sense of relief that the White House is changing hands."

    "His name etched in history as America's first black president, Barack Obama turned from the jubilation of victory to the sobering challenge of leading a nation worried about economic crisis, two unfinished wars and global uncertainty," AP writes.

    AP's Walter Mears: "Audacity won. Now Barack Obama must validate the hope and deliver the change he promised. He's already changed America by becoming the first black man to win the White House. His challenge is to change the course of its government and guide it through hard times and past the financial crisis he inherits as he takes office."

    "No president since before Barack Obama was born has ascended to the Oval Office confronted by the accumulation of seismic challenges awaiting him. Historians grasping for parallels point to Abraham Lincoln taking office as the nation was collapsing into Civil War, or Franklin D. Roosevelt arriving in Washington in the throes of the Great Depression," The NY Times' Baker writes. "What kind of decision maker and leader Mr. Obama will be remains unclear even to many of his supporters. Will he be willing to use his political capital and act boldly, or will he move cautiously and risk being paralyzed by competing demands from within his own party? His performance under the harsh lights of the campaign trail suggests a figure with remarkable coolness and confidence under enormous pressure, yet also one who rarely veers off the methodical path he lays out."

    And don't miss: "Mr. Obama may also have a news conference and announce top White House appointees by the end of the week, advisers said."

    The NYT's Healy offers this warning: "The last two Democratic presidents, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, claimed that they had reshaped electoral politics by recapturing battlegrounds like Georgia, Missouri and Ohio with promises of governing from the center. Both came up short rather quickly: Mr. Carter's declaration of a post-Watergate realignment ended with one term and the loss of the Senate in 1980, while Mr. Clinton's party lost Congress after two years and watched Republicans reclaim the White House in 2000.

    "Mr. Obama will soon face an American people seeking to have hopes met and change confirmed as he addresses an array of problems no incoming president has faced since Franklin D. Roosevelt. And Democrats will expect, in short order, a plan for withdrawing one to two brigades a month from Iraq, a major economic stimulus package, and a repeal of President Bush's tax cuts."

  • The battleground: How the states fell

    COLORADO: The Denver Post: "From the outset, the campaign veered from traditional Democratic strategy, which limited them to pockets of the country, and instead targeted regions where Democrats don't usually venture. The campaign's mobilization and organizational efforts among volunteers is likely unparalleled in current politics, using everything from text messaging to Internet recruiting."

    FLORIDA: Hang This on Your Chad and Poke It! In Florida, Obama paved a path to victory by winning the swing counties on the Gulf Coast and outperforming Kerry and Gore (for that matter) nearly everywhere else, including in Orange, Duval and Volusia counties.

    The Miami Herald: "For Florida Democrats, who have tolerated a Republican-controlled state government since the late 1990s and relished few statewide victories since then, Obama's victory signaled a new day. The Democratic nominee didn't just invest in a rusty political infrastructure; he built a new one from the ground up."

    GEORGIA: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "The McCain win in Georgia is a tribute to the state Republican Party's ability to set aside its differences and work for the good of the party. McCain lost the February primary, and at the state Republican convention, speaker after speaker mentioned how McCain was their first choice.But McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential nominee seemed to change that. Evangelical conservatives, some of whom distrusted McCain, saw in Palin a kindred spirit and moved solidly back into the fold."

    INDIANA: Hoosier Daddy: There isn't much to compare what Obama did in Indiana. Think about this, not only had the Hoosier State not gone for a Democrat since 1964, it also was a 20-point margin for Bush just four years ago. It's just emblamatic of how much a tectonic election this was. How'd Obama do it? With the organization he built there during the primaries, he beat Kerry's margins in Marion and Lake and flipped several counties, including, Vigo, Vanderburgh, Perry, Spencer, Madison, Delaware, Vermillon and St. Joseph's. It turned out not to be just about a few counties. Remember, there's a reason Obama held that rally in places like Evansville in Vanderburgh the night of Pennsylvania primary.

    "While Obama was rewriting the nation's history, he was making history in Indiana, well, eking out a razor-thin victory here. It was the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had won the state in 44 years. McCain won many rural counties with 60 percent or more of the vote, but Obama offset that with big margins in many larger counties, including Marion, St. Joseph and Lake, a Democratic stronghold near his hometown of Chicago." 

    IOWA: The Des Moines Register's Yepsen calls Obama's victory speech "It was moving oratory and a tonic for a weary nation anxious to move on." 

    MISSOURI: No showing of results from the Show-Me state as of this writing, but the St. Louis Post-Dispatch offers this county analysis: "In St. Charles County, another Republican stronghold, McCain appeared to be performing slightly below Bush's 2004 numbers. Obama, meanwhile, was outpolling Kerry by a significant margin in urban and suburban parts of the state. In the city of St. Louis, Obama's edge was 108,000 votes."

    NEVADA: Silver (State) Surfer: Obama won Nevada convincingly. We'd heard a lot about the Dems' new voter registration edge in traditionally Republican areas like Washoe County. In fact, Obama flipped Washoe, 55%-43%. It was a place Bush won 51%-47% in 2004. Obama also fared better than Kerry in rural northeastern Elko. Bush had won it 76%-19%, but Obama shrunk the margins. He still lost, but gained almost 10 percentage points, 68%-28%, in a place he made nearly half a dozen stops this cycle.

    Early vote, says the Las Vegas Sun, was key to Obama's victory. "The Democrat scored surprisingly strong numbers in early returns in Nevada, putting the state out of reach for his rival, Republican John McCain.

    NEW YORK: "Democrats won control of the State Senate last night for the first time in 43 years by ousting veteran Republicans in Suffolk and Queens." 

    NORTH CAROLINA: If Obama pulls out the still-not-called Tar Heel State, it will have pulled a "hat trick" -- party wins in the Senate, governor, and presidential races -- for the first time since 1960. 

    OHIO: The Columbus Dispatch: "Democrats, riding the coattails of Barack Obama, regained control of the Ohio House on Tuesday for the first time since Verne Riffe ended his 20-year reign as Speaker in 1994." 

    PENNSYLVANIA: Per the Philly Inquirer: "If many western Pennsylvanians are racists, as U.S. Rep. John Murtha blurted recently, it appears that some found a way to vote for a black man anyway and that others stayed home in yesterday's election. Or maybe, as Murtha later said, he was wrong about his constituents. Democrat Barack Obama cruised to a comfortable win in the Keystone State with a strong turnout in Philadelphia and a big win in its suburbs. He also made inroads into traditional Republican areas elsewhere in the state, where turnout was down compared to four years ago."

    VIRGINIA: Super NoVA: Obama rode to victory in Virginia, the first time for a Democrat since 1964, in part because of increased margins in Northern Virginia. He won Loudon 53%-47% (Bush won it 56%-44%); Fairfax 59%-41% (Kerry won it 53%-46%); Arlington: Obama 69%-30% (Kerry 63%-32%); Prince William 56%-44% (Bush won it 53%-46%). Additionally, Obama got a wide 72%-28% win out of Alexandria. Elsewhere, Obama also blew out Kerry's margin in Albermarle. Kerry won it 51%-49%; Obama took it 59%-40%. Obama also flipped Henrico (Richmond and suburbs). Bush had won it 54%-46%; Obama won it by about the reverse margin, 56%-44%, a net 20-percentage point change.

    The Richmond Times-Dispatch: 'In the end, Virginia's 13 electoral votes didn't matter. Obama won enough formerly red states elsewhere to wrap up the Electoral College without Virginia. But Obama's defeat of Sen. John McCain in Virginia represented a milestone in the Democratic Party's upward march in the state." 

  • McCain: McCain concedes

    AP: "McCain conceded the presidential race to Barack Obama, saying the Democrat has achieved a 'great thing' for himself and the country with his historic victory."

  • Palin: Back to Alaska?

    From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger: Palin is expected to leave for Alaska Wednesday afternoon

    "Can Sarah Palin go home again?" asks the Anchorage Daily News. In the 68 days since Alaska's governor began her run for vice president, things have changed on the home front. Some of her former allies are fuming, and former enemies are lying in wait. Public perceptions of the governor have also changed. Has the governor changed as well? Questions about Palin's future began to circulate at Alaska's Election Central on Tuesday night almost as soon as the national election results came in."

  • Down the ballot: No 60 in Senate

    SENATE: No to 60: Senate Democrats pulled down the low-hanging fruit in the competitive races, marking VA (Warner), NH (Shaheen), NC (Hagan), NM (Udall) and CO (Udall) in their camp. But the races that were higher reaches for Team Schumer -- KY (McConnell) and MS-B (Wicker) -- stayed in Republican hands. In the wee hours of the night, the Minnesota, Oregon, Georgia, and Alaska races all remained too close to call, but only a perfect storm of wins in all four states would grant Democrats the nine extra votes that they must net to beat a filibuster. In Minnesota, this morning, Coleman leads Franken by just 762 votes. Stevens leads by 3,353 votes. (By the way, Don Young leads by more than 16,000 votes with 99% in.) Gordon Smith leads by about 13,000 votes with 75% reporting. Chambliss is three-tenths of a percentage point from dropping below 50% with 99% of precincts reporting. (If he were to drop below 50, there would be run-off.)

    HOUSE: Democrats appear to have netted at least 17 seats in the House. Dems picked up 12 seats held by Republican incumbents, nine more open seats that had been held by Republicans. But Republicans were also able to pick up four seats held by Democrats. About a dozen remain undecided.

    Baked Alaska: Apparently Northern Exposure doesn't matter all that much in the Land of Perpetual Daylight. Into the wee hours of the morning, it was STILL unclear (as of 4:30 a.m.) if convicted Sen. Ted Stevens and under-investigation Rep. Don Young were going to lose. In fact, both were winning their races – despite calls from the party's top brass for Stevens to resign.

    Purple Shays: The news out of the House was mixed for Republicans, who were bracing for a potential bloodbath. Jim Himes' victory over Republican Chris Shays represented the ousting of the lone GOP representative in the Northeast, and the fall of incumbents in Michigan, Ohio, and Florida underscored McCain's toxicity in battleground states. (Of note, though: the Cuban Diaz-Balart brothers did survive in spite of Obama's long coattails in the state.) But Republicans who feared losses in the high 30s in the U.S. House are breathing sighs of (relative) relief this morning, with 22 seats (as of 5:15 a.m.) evaporating from their camp into Democratic hands. The Cook Political Report's David Wasserman notes a silver lining for those GOPers fearful of a House juggernaut: November 4th turned out to be a good day for conservative Dems in tossup races and a tough one for those on the more liberal side of the spectrum.  Ashwin Madia lost in MN-03, for example, unable to overcome Erik Paulson's efforts to paint the Iraq War veteran as a tax-and-spend-liberal. But anti-abortion mother of five Kathy Dahlkemper pulled off a swing-district win against Republican Phil English.

    Get Out of Gaffe Free: The utterers of the two mega-gaffes of the election's waning weeks were both not punished by voters. Michelle Bachmann (MN-6), who was accused of McCarthyism after calling for the investigation of "anti-American" Democrats, and John Murtha (PA-12), who implied that some of his constituents are racists, both won reelection. The one that didn't get away? North Carolina Republican Robin Hayes -- who took heat after declaring that "liberals hate real Americans that work and achieve and believe in God" --- was defeated in a rematch against Larry Kissell.

    They Love the Gov'nor: Among the nation's 11 gubernatorial races, only one -- in Missouri -- saw a challenger beat a member of the incumbent party.  State Attorney General Jay Nixon (D) beat Representative Kenny Hulshof for the seat vacated by Matt Blunt (R).  But in North Carolina, Democrat Bev Perdue rode Obama's long coattails in the state to beat popular Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory; she'll replace outgoing Democrat Mike Easley.  Incumbent Christine Gregoire won the madly-fought rematch of her 2004 race against Republican Dino Rossi. And Indiana's Gov Mitch Daniels sailed past once-promising Jill Long Thompson to win reelection.

    "Democrats increased their ranks in Congress last night, picking up seats from the Canadian to the Mexican borders and ushering in a new era of Democratic power in Washington the party has not seen since the 1960s," the Boston Globe writes.

  • Bush: Last night and the legacy

    The NY Daily News' Goodwin: "It now seems from the ice age, yet it was only four years ago that President Bush was basking in his election. ... Thanks to two unfinished wars and an economic meltdown, Bush's legacy is the historic landslide election of an inexperienced Barack Obama and a liberal-led Democratic Congress determined to undo every shred of the last eight years. Bush leaves his own party defeated and demoralized."

  • The vote was rocked

    From NBC's Luke Russert
    The two-year journey has come to an end and many young people feel that for the first time in their lives, they're represented by a leader who is one of their own. It's probably not an overstatement to say that the hopes, dreams and aspirations of millions of young people now lie on the shoulders of this 47-year-old senator from Illinois.

    My guess is that the first six months of his presidency will be closely watched. Quite frankly, President-elect Obama must deliver or risk alienating the young voters who ultimately propelled him to office by running up big margins in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio and Florida. It  has been an historic night.

    Now the challenge has begun: an economy in peril, two wars and a broken health care system. It's a challenging agenda -- one that no one would willingly want to inherit. Yet, President-elect Obama will wake up tomorrow morning with those challenges ahead. I think I speak for all Americans in wishing him good luck.

    At Indiana University, I spoke to two young African-American female students immediately after Obama's victory. Both said they never thought this day would come in their lifetime. But they reminded me that this wasn't about race, but about the American people who -- in their eyes and the eyes of the world -- have changed for the better. I spoke to many young Obama workers who had sacrificed hours of their time for their movement and their belief in country seems to have been validated tonight.

    Video: Luke Russert discusses how important the youth vote was to Sen. Barack Obama's win.

    At 11 p.m., when President-elect Obama was declared the winner, jubilant shouts echoed across the grounds of Indiana University. Our cameraman Greg said that it was as if the Hoosiers had won another national title in basketball. And that my friends, is LOUD! Different emotions filled the room -- tears, relief, and sadness amongst McCain supporters. I had a die-hard Democrat come up to me and say that John McCain gave the classiest speech he's ever heard. And without a doubt, Sen. McCain paid a great homage to Obama and effectively demonstrated that he understood the enormity of what had just occurred. Many I spoke to said it would be wise for President-elect Obama to reach out to Sen. McCain in the coming months.

    So here we are, two years later after this all began, and the journey is complete. But as is the tradition in politics -- a new one begins tomorrow. What will the next four years bring? We don't know but millions across this country are going to bed tonight quite happy.

  • A President-elect

    From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
    CHICAGO -- A century and a half after the Emancipation Proclamation, five decades after Brown v. Board of Education and 40 years after the achievements of the Civil Rights Movement, a black man has been elected president of the United States.

    Barack Obama, a man who tells crowds that the premise of his candidacy was his faith that the American people were ready for a "new kind of politics", has achieved what many blacks in America never thought they would see during their lifetime. He won 51% of the vote and 338 electoral votes (as of 1am EST) and he did it by moving red states like Florida, Colorado and Virginia into the blue column and earning the overwhelming support of blacks, Hispanics, women, the young, first time voters and college educated whites.

    "I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to - it belongs to you," Obama said.

    The 47-year-old junior senator from Illinois told the crowd that it had taken a long time, but "change has come to America."

    "If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer," he began.

    More than 240,000 people gathered on a unseasonably warm night in and around Grant Park - including celebrities like Oprah Winfrey, Spike Lee, Vogue Magazine's Andre Leon Talley, Tatyana Ali, Kerry Washingotn and will.i.am, a singer whose mashup of an Obama speech to a "Yes we can" tune became an internet sensation.

    Six spotlights shone in the sky overhead as the crowd roared and people jumped up and down cheering and when the race was called at 11pm Eastern. Obama took the stage with his family about an hour later.

    "To all those who have wondered if America's beacon still burns as bright - tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from our the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope," he said as cheering supporters waved American flags. "For that is the true genius of America - that America can change. "Our union can be perfected. And what we have already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow."

    He thanked his wife and his daughters Sasha and Malia, telling them they "have earned the new puppy that's coming with us to the White House."  

    It was not just a historic moment, it was also a bittersweet one. Madelyn Dunham, the senator's grandmother and the last relative who had a hand in raising him, died early Monday morning.

    "While she's no longer with us, I know my grandmother is watching," Obama said. "Along with the family that made me who I am. I miss them tonight, and know that my debt to them is beyond measure."

    The long battle for his place at this podium began with his win in the Iowa caucuses and culminated with an Electoral College blowout. Obama amassed the necessary electoral votes swiftly enough to make for an early night.

    In his speech, the senator spoke about the small donors who made his record-breaking fundraising possible, he promised the rest of the world a "new dawn of American leadership" and he spoke about the economic and national security challenges facing the country.

    "The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep," he said. "We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America - I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you - we as a people will get there."

    Sounding the tone of unity that was long a theme of his campaign, Obama told Americans who had not voted for him "I hear your voices, I need your help and I will be your president too."

    Apart from the huge crowds and the enthusiasm, the Obama campaign's mode of operation has -- if anything -- been calm, steady and disciplined  - reflecting the characteristics of its leader, a man who said throughout the long race that he did not put a lot of faith in polls because a year ago those same polls had suggested his former rival, Hillary Clinton was a shoe-in. 

    He ended with the story of a 106-year-old- black woman from Georgia and the progress she had seen in America during her lifetime, repeating a common campaign refrain "Yes we Can."

    "This is our moment. This is our time - to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth - that out of many, we are one," he said. "That while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes We Can."

  • Waiting on Alaska

    For the night-owls, Sarah Palin's home state could keep you up late.  After poll close, both the presidential and Senate races are too early to call.

  • Washington governor reelected

    In 2004, Christine Gregoire (D) eeked out the bitterly-fought gubernatorial race in the state of Washington with only 133 more votes than opponent Dino Rossi (R).

    NBC News projects that she will win this rematch.

  • An Obama triumph, some GOP survival

    From MSNBC.com's Tom Curry
    An Obama sweep? Not quite.

    Republican survival? Yes, in some states.

    Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama triumphed in the contested states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and New Mexico, and was projected to get the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

    CONTINUED

  • Scenes from the Old Dominion

    From NBC's Mike Levine
    Virginia bills itself as "the Mother of Presidents," and its votes helped to elect a president tonight.

    At about 11pm, Gov. Tim Kaine declared that his state "put us over the 270" votes Barack Obama needed to win the presidency. He was standing before a big crowd at a Hilton in Tyson's Corner, Va., as they roared with cheers and applaue. The crowd, estimated at more than 1,000, had been in a cheering mood all night.

    Patricia Leslie, a 62-year-old from McLean, Va., was one of the first to arrive at the party, hosted by former Virginia Governor (and now Senator-elect) Mark Warner. "It's like Santa Claus is coming to town. It's such exuberence," she said.

    As might be expected, the crowd cheered at about 7:30pm when they saw on two big screens (one airing MSNBC, the other CNN) that Obama was leading in Florida. They also cheered the senate races showing Democrats on top. They cheered just after 9pm when Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota were called for Obama. They had been counting down, in unison, to the 9pm poll closings: "Five! Four! Three! Two! One!"

    But the crowd also cheered the most mundane of things, such as  pie charts. A pie chart on TV showing how Obama was faring with voters who thought race was important? Yay!

    The night seemed to peak when Virginia was called for Obama.  The crowd did away with Obama's "Yes We Can!" mantra, and began chanting "Yes We Did! Yes We Did!"

    At that point, the party hosts had turned off the big screens, so Kaine could take the stage. He was only going to talk about Virginia. But a small TV set in the corner of the ballroom had been left on, and everyone realized something bigger was happening when a man in the corner began shrieking. The entire race had been called for Obama. He jumped uncontrollably. Others followed suit. A woman started to cry, pumping her fist in the air.

    "It's just a beautiful celebration, to see a day like this," said a 46-year-old man from McLean, Va. "Martin Luther King said this day would happen. ... I had a vision about it, but I didn't think I'd be here to see it. To see all of the people come together."

    Stevie Wonder's "Signed, Sealed, Delivered I'm Yours" filled the ballroom. Party-goers broke into dance. 

    One local TV reporter said of being inside the Hilton with all those Obama supporters on election night: "This was a good place to be."

  • Wasilla looks to Palin's future

    From NBC's Peter Alexander
    WASILLA, Alaska -- At the Wasilla Sports Complex in Sarah Palin's hometown, it was the first -- and only -- loud applause of the night when Sen. John McCain mentioned Palin's name. Otherwise, the room was silent and stunned. A line-up of rock bands took turns on stage, but few people here are in a festive mood.

    "You know when the next campaign starts?" A clearly disappointed Phyllis Robertson said. "Tomorrow."

    Here, the pride for Wasilla's former mayor is tremendous. Many supporters came tonight wearing the same updo the governor has made famous. Vendors are selling T-shirts with slogans like "Palin: She Doesn't Run with the Pack, She Shoots Them" and "My Pit Bull Wears Lipstick."

    One pin reads: "Palin 2012."

    Kelly Caraway of Wasilla brought her daughter to witness history -- though not the outcome she had hoped for.

    "From the beginning, I said it would be good for Sarah no matter what happened," she explained. "I'm glad we get to keep her in Alaska for a while, but we know it's not forever."

  • McCain's call from Bush

    Per White House spokesperson Dana Perino:

    Tonight at 11:38  pm, President Bush called Sen. McCain.

    The President told the Arizona senator, "John, you gave it your all. I'm proud of you, and I'm sorry it didn't work out. You didn't leave anything on the playing field."

    "Your statement was fabulous and very classy.  Please give our love to Cindy."

    Both calls were made from the president's office, the Treaty Room, in the Residence.

    Also, the President will give a statement in the Rose Garden tomorrow at 10:40 am.

  • Hillary's statement

    Below is the statement by Hillary Clinton on Barack Obama's victory in the presidential race:

    "Tonight, we are celebrating an historic victory for the American people. This was a long and hard fought campaign but the result was well worth the wait.

    Together, under the leadership of President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, and a Democratic Congress, we will chart a better course to build a new economy and rebuild our leadership in the world. And I look forward to doing all that I can to support President Obama and Vice President Biden in the difficult work that lies ahead.

    For too long, middle class families in this country have felt invisible, struggling alone as wages stagnate, jobs disappear, and the costs of daily life climb upward. In quiet, solitary acts of citizenship, American voters gave voice to their hopes and their values, voted for change, and refused to be invisible any longer."

     

  • Obama wins Nevada

    NBC News projects Barack Obama to be the winner in Nevada.

    The state has voted for the eventual winner in every election - save one in 1976 - since 1912.

  • McCain's call to Obama

    From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
    Per Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs, McCain called president-elect Obama at 10 PM Central.

    "Senator Obama thanked Senator McCain for his graciousness and said he had waged a tough race. Senator Obama told Senator McCain he was consistently someone who has showed class and honor during this campaign as he has during his entire life in public service.

    Senator Obama said he was eager to sit down and talk about how the two of them can work together - Obama said to move this country forward "I need your help, you're a leader on so many important issues."

  • Obama wins FL, CO

    NBC News has declared Barack Obama the projected winner in Florida and in Colorado.

  • Obama wins VA

    NBC News calls battleground Virginia for Barack Obama. The Old Dominion has not voted for a Democrat since 1964.  

  • Obama crosses 270 electoral votes

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    NBC News has projected Obama the winner in California (55 electoral votes), Hawaii (4), Oregon (7), and Washington State (11), which puts Obama at 284 electoral votes -- well past the threshold needed to win the presidency.

  • Dems will fall short of 60

    NBC News projects that incumbent Republican Roger Wicker will pull out a win against former Governor Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi.

    With Kentucky's McConnell, Mississippi's Wicker, and Georgia's Chambliss - who looks positioned for reelection - Senate Democrats won't reach 60 votes, even if they gain seats in Colorado (Udall) and Alaska (Begich).

    The two races still very much up for grabs: Minnesota and Oregon.  But even with those potential victories, Democrats are poised to fall just short of the sixty votes needed for a filibuster-proof majority in the US Senate.

    Nebraska's new senator, as expected, will be Mike Johanns. 
    Johanns, the former Secretary of Agriculture to Bush, will join Sen. Mel Martinez, former HUD director, as the second former Bush Administration cabinet member in the Senate.

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