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  • First thoughts: Obama meets advisers

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
    *** Obama meets advisers and the press: President-elect Obama gets down to business today by meeting his transition economic advisory board and then holding his first press conference since his victory Tuesday night. For his economic meeting, Obama is trotting out some big guns, including former Clinton Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin, former Clinton Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, Warren Buffett (via speakerphone), former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, former Clinton Commerce Secretary William Daley, former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich, Google CEO and Chairman Eric Schmidt, Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, and L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. Are we supposed to read into anything that some potential Obama Treasury secretaries are participating in the meeting (Summers, Buffett, Volcker) and others are not (Tim Geithner of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon)? Appearing on TODAY, Summers sidestepped questions about whether he's Obama's top choice for the Treasury job. As for today's presser, Obama will have lots of questions to answer today regarding the economy with the backdrop of a cratering stock market, awful job numbers (240,000 lost last month), and depressing retail sales figures. Specific answers he gives to his position on a stimulus package and where is he on bailing out the auto industry could have the potential of dominating the headlines.

    VIDEO: Obama will meet with his economic advisers and hold his first press conference as president-elect. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.

    *** Rahm's absence from -- and message to -- Capitol Hill: With Rahm Emanuel becoming White House chief of staff, it's worth pointing out how this takes away a HUGE player in the House Democratic caucus. Not only was Rahm in leadership; he was the unofficial political adviser to many of the newly elected members of the Congress from both the last cycle and this one. Many of them will be missing his counsel. In addition, the Emanuel hire removes the most likely person who was going to be playing the role of "Obama's go-to guy in Congress." Then again, with Rahm on the other side of Pennsylvania Avenue, he'll likely be able to identify whom the Administration will need in the House. Perhaps the most underreported aspect about the Rahm pick is how it's a subtle message to Pelosi and Reid that Obama isn't going to rolled over in dealing with Congress. 

    VIDEO: NBC's Mark Murray gives his first read on Obama's selection of Rep. Rahm Emanuel as White House chief of staff and looks at the blame game going on within the losing McCain campaign.
     
    *** Mr. Axelrod goes to Washington? We've also learned that David Axelrod, Obama's chief political strategist, is likely to work in the White House as an adviser to President-elect Obama. But, perception-wise, is this potentially problematic? Remember that Karl Rove followed Bush to DC, and many thought that move overly politicized the White House, especially after Rove became deputy chief of staff after Bush won re-election in 2004. Can Ax successfully not look political when he's dealing with a key policy issue? That was always the problem Rove had. Still, having Ax in the White House probably means that the organizational and message discipline the campaign was known for will continue. And no doubt that Axelrod will study the errors Rove made.

    *** Palin-tology: Once again, it's Palin -- and not McCain -- who continues to dominate the post-mortem McCain-Palin headlines. Apparently, there's a race going on inside the McCain-Palin campaign to frame exactly what Palin did or didn't do for the ticket. Palin is trying to tamp things down herself. In a word, it's a "mess." NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that Steve Biegun, a top campaign official who served as a foreign policy adviser to both McCain and Palin, defended Palin's knowledge of foreign affairs and basic geography. He said her knowledge was "the base level of international experience was what you'd expect a governor to have." On the specific reports that Palin was confused about whether Africa was a country or continent, Biegun said that while he was not present for the reported exchange, he defended her by saying he could understand "somebody being tested or quizzed could easily stumble country and continent." Overall, Biegun acknowledged the limits of Palin's knowledge about world affairs saying, "Certainly, there were gaps in what she … knew and there were things we had to go through in greater detail. The kind of preparation I did with her was the exact same kind of preparation I would do for the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee when I worked for him." By the way, on TODAY this morning, McCain adviser Nicolle Wallace was asked about a few of the latest controversies, including whether the RNC had sent someone to Alaska to retrieve any clothes. Wallace both defended Palin but didn't deny the RNC had possibly sent someone.

    *** The "What if…" game: We've devoted a lot of attention the three-legged stool of support that Obama received from African Americans, Hispanics, and voters 18 to 29. NBC's Ana Maria Arumi projects what would have happened if you had removed one of those legs. When Arumi re-ran the numbers to eliminate all voters under 30, the only states that switched into the McCain column were the narrowly won states of Indiana and North Carolina. If there were no Latinos voting, both New Mexico and Indiana would have switched into the McCain column. However, in the make-believe world where African Americans wouldn't have voted, Obama would have still won most of the states that he won -- but McCain would have taken the swing states of Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Those 107 electoral votes would have then been enough to flip the race. The most important thing to take away from this little experiment: Obama's coalition was much broader than the conventional wisdom suggests. (Never mind the cynics among us who may now send all these "young voters did it" press releases into their junk email folder.)

    VIDEO: NBC's Chuck Todd maps out the results of Tuesday's election. 

    *** What's left, House edition: Three days after Election Day, Americans now know which leaders their communities have chosen to represent them in Washington DC. That is, unless they live in OH-15, MD-01, CA-04, or VA-05. In Ohio's 15th CD, Republican Steve Stivers leads Mary Jo Kilroy by just 146 votes. If victorious, Stivers, a pro-choice moderate, will fit the model of the centrist Republicans who escaped defeat in a political environment hostile to the GOP; if Kilroy wins, the sometimes uncharismatic candidate may have Barack Obama's Ohio coattails to thank. In Maryland's 1st Congressional District, the race to replace Rep. Wayne Gilcrest is separated by 1900 votes.  Gilcrest, an Iraq War opponent, lost the Republican primary. In California's 4th District, fewer than 400 votes separate Republican Tom McClintock and Democrat Charlie Brown. The winner will replace scandal-ridden John Doolittle, who chose to retire after his ties to lobbyist Jack Abramoff promised to throw a wrench in a reelection bid in this heavily GOP district. And in Virginia, according to the State Board of Elections, Democrat Tom Perriello leads conservative Republican Virgil Goode by 648 votes. [<--UPDATED] (First Read noted last weekend that Republicans must have smelled trouble in this usually solid GOP district. The NRCC sent out a press release slamming Perriello as an out-of-touch New York City elite.)

    *** Poized for success? California Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R) is making a bid to be California governor in 2010 -- and consequently perhaps the most important Republican in the country. Yesterday, he passed around an op-ed he wrote about the GOP's current woes: "Republicans proudly proclaim our core governing principles to be individual freedom, smaller government, lower taxes and economic policies that promote investment and job creation. Voters who closely examine what happened in Washington D.C. over the past eight years, however, certainly didn't see this.  What they saw was a Republican track record of runaway spending, skyrocketing deficits and shameful ethical lapses. On Tuesday, it is clear Republicans were judged on their actions, not their words.  For this we can only blame ourselves." 

    Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 62 days
    Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 74 days

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  • The transition: Rahm, Gibbs and Ax

    The Washington Post reports on Obama's hiring of Rahm Emanuel to be his chief of staff, as well as the likely picks of Roberts Gibbs as press secretary and David Axelrod as senior adviser. "Those early staffing decisions, coupled with reports that a number of prominent and established people are under consideration for Cabinet roles, suggests that Obama is focused more on projecting a reassuring image of continuity and competence than of quickly bringing wholesale change to a nation facing two wars and a severe economic downturn."

    More: "Obama's choice of Emanuel -- a veteran of the Clinton years with a quick wit, a legendary temper and a strong grasp of policy -- signaled a potential mood shift away from the serene 'no drama' ethos that defined his campaign. It also demonstrated Obama's eagerness to be accompanied by tested allies in navigating his first act in the White House." 

    The New York Post's conservative editorial page praises Emanuel, calling him, yes, a "partisan," but also "ideologically flexible." "A chief of staff of another era, H.R. 'Bob' Haldeman famously described his job as being 'Richard Nixon's S-O-B.' The chief of staff ensures that the White House runs smoothly and that the president's legislative program gets through Congress -- indeed, that the entire administration is shaped to advance his boss' agenda.  If heads must be knocked, a good chief of staff knocks them. Emanuel is well-suited to take that role for Obama -- and we mean that in as complimentary a way as possible. Emanuel's fierce partisanship matters less, given the Democrats' majorities in Congress. In fact, he'll likely find himself jawboning chairmen and rank-and-file members of his own party to ensure that White House priorities are enacted."

    The New York Times says the leading contenders for the Treasury secretary job are Larry Summers and Tim Geithner.

    The Los Angeles Times notes that Obama is receiving conflicting advice on whether he should pick Larry Summers. "Some argue that, with the economy gripped by a deepening crisis, he needs the country's best and brightest to help him deal with it, chief among them Summers. Others warn that Summers' sharp elbows and his penchant for controversy could make him a damaging distraction at a time when the nation and the new president can least afford it. And they worry that Summers' wide-ranging knowledge, expansive personality and combative impulses could clash with the president's desire to have the White House deeply involved in the biggest problems facing the new administration.

    The John Kerry-for-Secretary-of-State chatter is still dominating the Boston Globe's political coverage. And the Globe gets at one issue we're curious about when it comes to Joe Biden. "When Joe Biden won Obama's VP nod, some tea-leaf readers viewed that as a positive for Kerry, thinking it removed a potential rival for the nation's top diplomatic job. But here's an interesting question: Would Biden want Kerry at state?"

    "The two senators are genuine friends. Still, if Biden wants to be the new administration's foreign policy czar, it wouldn't necessarily be in his interest to have Kerry -- a high-profile figure with his own power base and political relationships -- in the post. However, The New Yorker recently quoted a Biden spokesman as saying Biden has told Obama he doesn't want to be a shadow secretary of state." 

    How many Latinos will serve at the top levels of Obama's Administration? Politico writes, "Weeks before Barack Obama won the presidency, he met privately in Washington with his former Democratic rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, and Latino political leaders who had fervently backed her bid. The cards were laid upon the table, according to one of the participants. The Hispanic leaders said they expected at least two Latinos to be named to an Obama Cabinet -- meeting the standard set by President-elect Bill Clinton in 1992 -- but preferred three. Of course, they also wanted sub-Cabinet-level posts. In return, Obama needed assurances that Hispanics -- who had overwhelmingly voted for Clinton during the Democratic primaries -- would be mobilized in large enough numbers to make him the winner in the battleground states of Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Florida." More: "The president-elect has not made any firm commitments. During a speech to the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute in September, he asked for their policy ideas and their votes and added, "When I'm president, I'll be asking many of you to serve at every level of government." 

    Officials at the Defense Department yesterday showed off the new office space inside the Pentagon that will soon accommodate roughly two dozen members of President-elect Obama's transition team, NBC's Scott Foster reports. The offices are in a prime spot of the building, located on the Pentagon's "E" ring -- not far from the Defense Secretary's office. The three inter-connected, modest offices are lined with cubicles and filing cabinets, with computers and phones in place for the incoming transition staff.

    Once designated and cleared by the White House, Obama's national security transition team will begin to move into the space to begin the process of reviewing current Defense policies, pouring over the massive Pentagon budget, and seeking to fill senior Defense Department positions. Recalling the 2001 transition when disgruntled Clinton staffers removed "W" keys from keyboards from numerous computers inside the White House complex, a reporter today jokingly asked whether all the "O" keys were in place. A Pentagon spokesman confirmed they in fact were, emphasizing that with the nation engaged in two wars, a smooth transition at the headquarters of the US military is a must. "We're going to do this in a very positive manner, there's no room for things like that," the spokesman said.

    "Gov. Deval Patrick's top environmental chief has landed on President-elect Barack Obama's list of would-be candidates to lead the federal Environmental Protection Agency. Ian Bowles, the Patrick administration's secretary for energy and environmental affairs, has been a point person for passing legislation this year on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, setting renewable energy goals, and pushing wind power… Other candidates for the EPA post are Kathleen McGinty, former head of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection; Mary Nichols, chairwoman of the California Air Resources Board; Governor Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas; and New Jersey environmental commissioner Lisa P. Jackson, according to national press reports. The name that is creating the most buzz, however, is environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Kennedy, who endorsed Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary."

    The AP has a list of more names in a potential Obama administration for Defense, Treasury, State, Attorney General, Energy, EPA, HHS, Transportation, Interior, Homeland Security, NSA, Education, Agriculture, OBM, HUD and Labor.

  • The agenda: Iraq's reaction

    "Obama was elected only two days ago, but his victory is already beginning to shift the political ground in Iraq and the region. Iraqi Shi'ite politicians are indicating that they will move faster toward a new security agreement about US troops, and a Bush administration official said he believed that Iraqis could ratify the agreement as early as the middle of this month."
     
    More: "Many Shi'ite politicians had been under intense pressure from Iranian leaders not to sign a security agreement. Iran, which has close ties to Shi'ite politicians, has feared the agreement would lay the groundwork for a permanent US troop presence in Iraq that would threaten Iran. Now, the Iraqis appear to be feeling less pressure from Iran, perhaps because the Iranians are less worried that an Obama government would try to force a regime change in their country." 
     
    Did the RNC send this wire? "Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad yesterday congratulated Barack Obama on his election win -- the first time an Iranian leader has offered such wishes to a US president-elect since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. An analyst said Ahmadinejad's message was a gesture from the hard-line president that he is open to some sort of reconciliation with the United States."

    "Obama spokeswoman Stephanie Cutter said the president-elect spoke to Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso, Mexican President Felipe Calderon, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown."

    The Ft. Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel notes Obama can deliver easily and quickly on his Florida promises. "With help from Democrats in Congress, President-elect Barack Obama will have the clout next year to deliver campaign promises to Florida voters who helped send him to the White House. Look for Obama to quickly remove the limits imposed by President Bush on Cuban-American travel to visit relatives in Cuba. Obama can do that with the stroke of a pen. Obama also is likely to help South Florida members of Congress create a national catastrophe fund to ease the cost of homeowner insurance in disaster-prone areas."

  • New Congress: Committee opening

    With Biden leaving the Senate, there's a BIG committee chair opening: Foreign Relations. Chris Dodd is next in line, but he wants to keep his Banking post and he's up in 2010. Kerry, who wants to be Secretary of State, would be the next senator in line on Foreign Relations.

    The Senate hierarchy appears set for the possibility that Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), one of the staunchest opponents of the Iraq war, could become the new head of the body's Foreign Relations Committee. Per The Hill: "Democrats could bypass the Wisconsin senator and choose a more centrist member, such as Sen. Bill Nelson (Fla.), who initially supported the war and could be more open to compromise. But that would rile the party's left wing."

    The Los Angeles Times looks at the Waxman-Dingell fight for the Commerce Committee.

    The day-to-day chairmanship of the powerful Appropriations Committee may go to Sen. Daniel Inouye, but its current leader -- the ailing Sen. Robert Byrd -- isn't going without a fight.

  • Looking back at the election

    Obama was the declared the winner of North Carolina yesterday, which the AP called a "symbolic triumph." "Obama's win in North Carolina was the first for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976."

    "The USA Today/Gallup survey, conducted on Wednesday and released yesterday, asked how people felt about Obama's election: 67 percent said proud, 67 percent said optimistic, and 59 percent said excited. Thirty percent said pessimistic, and 27 percent said afraid." 
     
    "Whether whites supported Barack Obama or not, they don't seem to have lied to pollsters about it. Obama's election triumph on Tuesday presented no evidence of the so-called Bradley effect, in which whites who oppose a black politician mislead pollsters about whom they will vote for. Instead, national and state pre-election polls were generally accurate in reflecting voters' preferences in the presidential contest."

    In his latest National Journal column, Charlie Cook wonders why Democrats, despite their gains, weren't able to win even more races down the ballot. "There is no shortage of theories. It could be that a lot of first-time and younger voters cast their ballots for Obama but didn't bother to venture down the ballot. Once the final vote tallies are tabulated, we will have a better idea of whether that happened. Or maybe there was a determined effort to apply checks and balances. By deciding to elect Obama president, more than a few voters may have opted to keep the Republican incumbent in place, just to prevent Democrats from getting carried away. Another theory … is that in the states where the Obama campaign was the strongest, it was able to deliver big numbers of voters who boosted Democratic hopes, but in other states, notably Southern ones such as Tennessee and Oklahoma, Obama may have been something of a liability."

    But it might also be that the Democrats were pretty much maxed out. Cook writes, "It is important to remember that in the U.S. House and in many of the state legislative contests, Democrats had already gained many seats in 2006. And since you can't pick up a seat you have already won, Democrats were defending a lot of seats in districts previously held by Republicans."

    "The euphoria sweeping the nation, and the globe, has led to an uptick in the number of parents naming their children Barack or Obama. A Florida couple named their baby Sanjae Obama Fisher when he was born Tuesday, just hours before the Illinois senator clinched victory. Several mothers in Kenya, where Obama's father was from, were also reported to be naming their baby boys after the U.S.' first African-American President -- or after soon-to-be First Lady Michelle if they were girls. And in Sierra Leone, six out of 10 male newborns in the capital's main maternity hospital were named Barack Obama Wednesday morning, doctors said."

  • GOP's future: Focus on the middle class

    National Review's Ramesh Ponnuru has an op-ed in the New York Times cautioning the party from automatically moving to the right. "Many conservatives think that the party will succeed again just as soon as it ditches the big-spending, soft-on-immigration George W. Bush. But Republicans succeeded on those previous occasions because they addressed the concerns of the day for the vast middle class; moving right alone was insufficient."

    "The way to court these moderates is not to abandon social conservatism, which would alienate many of the voters Republicans still have. The party needs to 'move to the middle' less than it needs to move to the middle class: to go back to representing the interests of voters in the middle of the income spectrum. John McCain and movement conservatives, so often at odds, have been complicit in neglecting these voters. He somehow believed that he could win a presidential election without a coherent middle-class economic agenda, and conservatives never thought to demand one from him."

    But here are some shots from the right against the moderates. "'The liberal wing of the GOP has caused the collapse of the Republican Party…  For a decade it has spat on the values of Ronald Reagan,' L. Brent Bozell III, an activist, said in a statement Wednesday. He hosted a passel of conservative-movement veterans at his home yesterday in Virginia to strategize on the party's future."

    "The election's outcome is a 'fairly thorough repudiation' of the party's governing style, said Peter Wehner, a former deputy assistant to President Bush. 'The Republican Party is in worse shape than conservatism," he said. 'The problem with the Republican Party is that it is not speaking the language and addressing the concerns of the middle class.'"

    "Democrats made great gains this year in some of the fastest-growing parts of the South and Mountain West, boosted by expanded support from young voters, suburbanites, and Hispanics. The results demonstrated Republicans had become 'a white, rural, regional party,' retiring US Representative Tom Davis of Virginia lamented on Tuesday." 

    "On Tuesday, McCain reenacted his own version of Goldwater's loss, not as large in margin but nearly as threatening to his party's short-term ambitions. Yesterday, House minority whip Roy Blunt stepped down from his post, the first victim of another reckoning certain to dominate the party's internal deliberations for years and shape the way it determines its congressional leadership and selects a nominee in 2012.
     
    "'There is going to be a real struggle. Not about the enormity of the defeat for the Republicans, but why,' said former Oklahoma congressman Mickey Edwards. That debate has already begun, as those on the right rushed Wednesday morning to autopsy the corpse of the McCain candidacy, diagnose survivors, and prescribe a new course of treatment for the future. It was also an occasion for ideological triage, as activists tried to separate the fortunes of the party's right and its center."

    By the way… "Joe the Plumber is apparently not ready to leave the political stage now that the election is over. While Samuel J. Wurzelbacher quashes speculation that he plans to run for Congress ... he said he is launching a government watchdog group to keep President-elect Barack Obama and other politicians accountable… Because of the 'unique position that I've been put in,' he said, he has decided he 'might better serve my fellow man' with watchdog group. (The group's brand-new website also promotes his forthcoming book, 'Fighting for the American Dream.')" 

  • Down the ballot: The undecided races

    ALASKA: In case Ted Stevens is having second thoughts about resigning his seat should he win, another major Senate Republican -- Jim DeMint -- is calling for expulsion.

    CALIFORNIA: The Sacramento Bee: "The tight 4th Congressional District race between Tom McClintock and Charlie Brown will create extra work for county election officials already sifting through tens of thousands of uncounted absentee and provisional ballots. If the election margin is one-half of 1 percent or less on election night, already tallied votes in 10 percent of precincts must be recounted by hand to check the accuracy of voting machines. McClintock leads Brown, 50.2 percent to 49.8." The winner will replace scandal-ridden John Doolittle, who chose to retire after his ties to lobbyist Jack Abramoff promised to throw a wrench in a reelection bid in this heavily GOP district.

    LOUSIANA: Because primary day in Louisiana was delayed due to Hurricane Gustav, Dec. 6 is Election Day for two Louisiana House seats, including the one held by Rep. William Jefferson, who has been indicted on corruption charges. Despite his high-profile legal woes, Jefferson is favored to win reelection in Louisiana's 2nd District. Democrat Paul Carmouche and Republican John Fleming will fight out the battle for Jim McCrery's seat in Louisiana's conservative Fourth District.

    MARYLAND: In Maryland's First Congressional District, writes the Baltimore Sun, "Democrat Frank M. Kratovil Jr. saw his slim lead over Republican Andy Harris more than double yesterday as election judges began to open absentee ballots in the 1st Congressional District." The race to replace Rep. Wayne Gilcrest is separated by around 1800 votes. Gilcrest, an Iraq War opponent, lost the Republican primary.

    MINNESOTA: "One Senate candidate says the voters have spoken. The other says the electorate still needs to be heard. In the end, experts say, it could be the courts or even the Senate that speaks the loudest on Minnesota's unsettled Senate race."

    OHIO: In Ohio's 15th CD, per the Columbus Dispatch: "As of last night, Stivers held a 146-vote lead over Kilroy, with thousands of provisional ballots remaining to be counted." If victorious, Stivers, a pro-choice moderate, will fit the model of the centrist Republicans who escaped defeat in a political environment hostile to the GOP; if Kilroy wins, the sometimes uncharismatic candidate may have Barack Obama's Ohio coattails to thank.

    TEXAS: "Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison isn't ready to say whether she will run for governor in 2010, but she said Thursday that she doesn't think it would hurt Texas if she resigned from Congress before her term ends in 2012. 'I have looked at this from all angles,' Hutchison told reporters after speaking at a luncheon hosted by the University of Texas. 'And I believe that from the standpoint of Texas in the Senate, that if I did decide to step down in order to run for governor, that Texas would be actually well positioned because John Cornyn will have had a full term.'"

    VIRGINIA: In VA-05, per last night's Richmond Times-Dispatch: "Democrat Tom S.P. Perriello, who started the day leading Republican Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr. by 31 votes, had a 639-vote lead by the end of the day after post-election canvassing by local electoral boards. At one point during the day Perriello was up by 832 votes. A recount is likely because the margin is still below the 1 percent threshold that allows the trailing candidate to seek a recount." (First Read noted last weekend that Republicans must have smelled trouble in this usually solid GOP district. The NRCC sent out a press release slamming Perriello as an out-of-touch New York City elite.)  
     
    WASHINGTON: In suburban Seattle, "Republican Rep. Dave Reichert maintained his narrow lead over Democrat Darcy Burner Thursday in their close race for the 8th Congressional District. Burner was still leading in King County, which makes up about 80 percent of the district, but Reichert was chipping away at her advantage there. He was winning handily in the part of Pierce County that makes up about 20 percent of the district."

  • Do guns still matter?

    From NBC's Carrie Dann
    During the Democratic primary, when Barack Obama told donors in San Francisco that "bitter" voters in hardscrabble Pennsylvania "cling to their guns and religion," the words rang like music in his political opponents' ears.  Obama foes hoped that the senator's inartful description of economically-strapped gun enthusiasts would cut his support from rural whites off at the knees.

    The comment also put an exclamation point on Obama's record on guns, which has drifted to the center since his days as an Illinois state senator. As the general election heated up, the National Rifle Association announced an eye-popping $15 million ad campaign intended to serve as a loudspeaker for suspicions about Obama's alleged hidden intention to limit gun ownership.  

     But as the vote margins of the presidential race rolled in, the one-time wedge issue of the Second Amendment did not seem to pack the national-stage punch for which the influential gun lobby had aimed. Nationally, gun owners broke for McCain by almost the identical margin that they broke for Bush in 2004.  But in the states where the NRA Political Victory Fund's toughest efforts against Obama were concentrated -- gun-rich regions in states like Colorado, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico -- Obama's victory was decisive. The Democratic nominee won those states by eight, 11, and 15 points, respectively.  Of the 11 states where the NRA's anti-Obama ads were reportedly aired, McCain won only one: Texas.

    Down the ballot, the NRA backed all six of the Republican Senate candidates who lost to Democratic challengers. And in several high-profile House contests, NRA-backed candidates like Ed Tinsley, Bill Sali, Steve Chabot, and Phil English came up short.

    But the ballot results also showed that advocacy of gun rights served as a cache calling card for some successful conservative Democrats. Many of the centrist Dems who fared well on Tuesday -- like Bobby Bright (AL-02), Harry Teague (NM-02), John Boccieri (OH-16) and Debbie Halvorson (IL-11) -- have high ratings from the NRA.

    (Halvorson even won their endorsement. But three other Democrats in competitive races who received endorsements from the NRA – Don Cazayoux  (LA-06), Tim Mahoney (FL-16), and Nick Lampson (TX-22) -- lost their reelection bids.)

    Gun control activists like Paul Helmke, the president of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, believe that the Supreme Court's recent decision in Heller v. District of Columbia, which affirmed gun ownership as an individual right, assuaged gun owners' fears about having "their guns taken away," reducing some of the Second Amendment's bite as a wedge issue.

    The apparent lack of salience of gun rights and other social issues may be due, in large part,  to the deafening wave of economic woes that dominated voters' decision-making this cycle.  Still, the influence of the once-dominant gun lobby appears to be up for debate, at least until the 2010 election.

  • Emanuel officially named chief of staff

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    President-elect Obama has officially named Rep. Rahm Emanuel his chief of staff. Emanuel, who is the chairman of the Democratic Caucus, is the fourth-ranking member of the U.S. House. He previously worked in the White House under Bill Clinton and has served four terms in Congress.

    Here are the statements from Obama and Emanuel:

    Statement from President-elect Barack Obama:
    "I am pleased to announce that my good friend, Congressman Rahm Emanuel, has agreed to serve as my White House chief of staff. I announce this appointment first because the Chief of Staff is central to the ability of a President and Administration to accomplish an agenda.  And no one I know is better at getting things done than Rahm Emanuel.

    "During his seven years in the Clinton White House, Rahm was the point man on some of the most difficult issues, from the passage of landmark anti-crime legislation to the expansion of health care coverage for children. In just six years in Congress, he has risen to leadership, helping to craft myriad important pieces of legislation and guide them to passage. In between, Rahm spent several years in the private sector, where he worked on large and complicated financial transactions.  That experience, combined with his service on the committees on Ways and Means and Banking, have given Rahm deep insights into the challenging economic issues that will be front and center for our Administration. Though Rahm understands how to get things done in Washington, he still looks at the world from the perspective of his neighbors and constituents on the Northwest Side of Chicago, who work long and hard, and ask only that their government stand on their side and honor their values. The son of an Israeli immigrant, Rahm shares a passionate love for this country, and has devoted much of his life to its cause.

    "His decision to accept this position is a wonderful reflection of that commitment, for it is not easy to give up the significant position he holds today as chair of the House Democratic conference.  The post he has accepted also will require more time away from Amy, and their children, Zach, Ilana and Leah, which I know is painful and difficult.

    "I appreciate his friendship.  And I, and all Americans, should be grateful that Rahm is once again answering his country's call," said President-elect Barack Obama.

    Statement from Congressman Rahm Emanuel:
    "I know what a privilege it is to serve in the White House, and am humbled by the responsibility we owe the American people.  I'm leaving a job I love to join your White House for one simple reason - like the record amount of voters who cast their ballot over the last month, I want to do everything I can to help deliver the change America needs. We have work to do, and Tuesday Americans sent Washington a clear message -- get the job done. 

    "I have loved the time I spent in the House, both the successes and the setbacks, and I am grateful to the people of the Fifth Congressional district who sent me to work on their behalf. I was proud to serve on a leadership team with Speaker Pelosi, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn. They have taught me invaluable lessons -- even a few lessons in humility, believe it or not.

    "I want to say a special word about my Republican colleagues, who serve with dignity, decency and a deep sense of patriotism.  We often disagree, but I respect their motives.  Now is a time for unity, and Mr. President-elect, I will do everything in my power to help you stitch together the frayed fabric of our politics, and help summon Americans of both parties to unite in common purpose.

    "It has been almost 150 years since Americans turned to a proud son of Illinois as their President.  Early in his first term, Abraham Lincoln said, "The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew, and act anew."

    "Today, once again, our country is piled high with difficulty, and Americans have put their trust in President-elect Barack Obama and Vice-President-elect Joe Biden to think and act anew.  And Mr. President-elect, I promise that your White House will do everything in our power to rise to the occasion," said Congressman Rahm Emanuel.

  • Biden talks transition

    From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
    GEORGETOWN, Del. – Vice President-elect Biden said that he and President-elect Barack Obama have begun to form a new administration with an eye to the "precarious position" he nation and the world find itself in.

    "I think the world is looking to us -- not Barack and me -- looking to America in the same way the public's looking to us," he said. "They sense there's a need for immediate help, immediate help for people who are drowning. … And what I'm excited about is, there's an awful lot of talented people out there. An awful lot of talented people who are ready, who are thinking this way."

    Biden, speaking with reporters as he flew to Delaware for the first time since Tuesday's election, talked about the "sense of excitement" he felt yesterday as he and Obama sat together "actually beginning to put together a government."

    "We've thought a lot about it, but it was the first time -- he's as superstitious as I was -- the first time we actually started talking about names and places and organizations," he said. "We both know it's going to be a very difficult road."

    Biden said that he has not yet spoken with John McCain, but that he intends to reach out to his friend to say, "We need you."

    "We really mean it. We've got to reach out," he said. "You can't, you can't get from here to there with just Democrats. You can't do it."

    Biden is returning to Delaware briefly to participate in the centuries-old "Return Day" tradition, where winners and losers of state elections parade through this small town and, literally, bury a hatchet. He excitedly talked about the event's history, and also spoke at length about the circumstances that led to his election to the Senate in 1972.

    "To me, it's not so much emotional today. Today's just a celebratory day," he said. "This is more sort of a pride of my state kind of day. … We really do have a kind of Delaware way."

    Biden will be joined on a carriage ride through Georgetown by Christine O'Donnell, who challenged him for re-election. Asked what he would have said if Sarah Palin were with him, he simply described her rise as "remarkable."

    "I think it's, you know, pretty remarkable, for the all the ups and downs, [a] pretty remarkable run for her," he said. "I mean, here's a woman who is out of … Wasilla, as a mayor and then Governor for two years."

  • NBC calls NC for Obama

    Photo wrapped left:

    From NBC's Carrie Dann
    NBC News has declared Barack Obama the projected winner of North Carolina's 15 electoral votes.

    As we noted in First Read this morning, elections officials will count the remaining provisional ballots and formalize the state's election results later this month.

    North Carolina joins Indiana on the list of previously ruby-red states in Obama's column. George W. Bush won the state by 12 points in 2004.

    Obama's hard-won victory may be partially due to increased enthusiasm from African-Americans. In 2004, John Kerry only won 85% of the black vote in North Carolina; this year, Obama beat McCain among black voters in the state by a margin of 95-5%.

  • Oregon Senate seat goes to Dems

    From NBC's Carrie Dann and Mark Murray
    NBC News has called the Oregon Senate race for Democrat Jeff Merkley.  The defeat of Republican incumbent Gordon Smith means that Dems will have picked up six seats in the U.S. Senate.  It also makes the 2008 election year the second consecutive cycle that Democrats have gained six Senate seats.

    VIDEO: Democrat Jeff Merkley defeats incumbent Gordon Smith in Oregon.

    The outstanding votes in the contest had mostly been cast in blue-leaning areas, leading both Republicans and Democrats to expect yesterday that Merkley would eventually be called as the winner.

     

  • First thoughts: The transition game

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
    *** The transition game: With the presidential election over, the big political story moves from the horserace to the speculation over who will serve in the new Obama Administration. The first job offer went to Rahm Emanuel for the role of White House chief of staff. Emanuel's office denied that he had accepted the job, but the smart money has to be on him taking it. (After all, what would be the perception that Obama's first job offer was rejected? Still, the family consideration issue is real; he would have to move his family from Chicago, and he'd also have to give up his dream of being Speaker). Yet given the nation's economic crisis, perhaps the top position Obama has to fill is Treasury secretary. The names: former Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, Tim Geithner of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, former Fed Chair Paul Volker, Warren Buffett, J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, and possibly even someone like New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, who was once head of Goldman Sachs.

    VIDEO: Obama and his team announce a plan for transition of power.  NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.

    *** More Speculation: Interestingly, there's been an oppo dump on Summers to the Huffington Post; the last thing Obama needs is drama with potential appointees. A Volker/Buffett appointment is actually something Obama would warm up to in that he may like the idea of bringing in an elder statesman to oversee the crisis while he finds someone else for the long term. As for Corzine or Dimon, can Obama really replace one Goldman Sachs alum with another, or replace one Wall Street guy with another? And because of the focus on finding a new Treasury secretary is priority one, the "keep Gates at the Pentagon" chatter is prominent. Also, which Republicans might be a part of Obama's cabinet? NBC's Andrea Mitchell reported yesterday that Sen. Dick Lugar isn't interested (still, what happens if Obama, himself, personally offers him the State job?), but folks like outgoing Sen. Chuck Hagel and Colin Powell might be. And how about some of the moderate Republicans who lost on Tuesday? Chris Shays? Also, smart money is on Robert Gibbs as White House press secretary. 

    Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the efforts underway to create an Obama administration.

    *** The knives are out for Palin: Don't miss today's piece in the New York Times about the infighting between the McCain and Palin camps. Some of the anecdotes: Not only were the McCain folks upset that Palin took the crank call from Canadian comedians posing as Sarkozy, but Palin failed to notify the McCain camp that she was going to speak with the supposed French leader. Also, RNC lawyers are perhaps heading to Alaska to take an inventory of the clothes that Palin purchased. Folks, this could get nasty. And before Palin can think about 2012 or beyond, she has to first survive the leaks we are about to see in the coming days. And it's not just the New York Times piece -- Newsweek's always good "what happened?" special issue has lots of negative Palin stories. Palin may be someone who struggled because she never had handlers/advisers before. Well, given the white-hot intensity of the post-election spin war, she's going to need to find her own unofficial defense team.

    VIDEO: Palin tells reporters she can't imagine a run for president in 2012, saying she's ready to get back to her day job as governor of Alaska.  NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports.

    *** When the CW is wrong: Remember when we heard from Hillary Clinton supporters at the tail end of the Democratic primary season that Obama would have a difficult time winning Florida and Ohio, and would struggle with Hispanics, Jews, and white working-class voters? Well, he won Florida and Ohio; he beat McCain 2-to-1 among Hispanics; he did better with Jews (winning then 78%-21%) than John Kerry did in 2004 (74%-25%); and he essentially matched Kerry's performance among working-class whites. So what did we learn here: that primary results and exit polls aren't necessarily good predictors about what will happen in the general election. Interestingly, this CW was driven a bit by the McCain campaign. One wonders if they sat back during the end of the Democratic primary and over-analyzed it, forgetting that 90-95% of those voters who voted in the Dem primary contests were DEMOCRATS! And they weren't likely to vote for a Republican under just about any circumstance. Did the McCain campaign chase voters that they never had a shot at? Could be...

    *** Carolina on our mind: For all those with money riding on the presidential results in North Carolina, mark Nov.14th on your calendar. With all precincts reporting in the traditionally red state, Obama leads by about 12,000 votes but networks have not yet called the race due to outstanding provisional ballots. State Board of Elections Director Gary Bartlett estimates that there are about 40,000 provisional ballots to be certified by county elections officials, and that 65% of those will be deemed valid by authorities. Once audited, the final vote count of those ballots will be verified by county officials who meet on the morning of November 14th; the State Board of Elections will formally certify that final count on Nov. 25th. But with provisional ballots usually reflecting the vote margins of the electorate, Bartlett tells First Read, do not expect the 12,000-vote margin in Obama's favor to shift dramatically. By all indications, the Tar Heel State looks like -- against the odds -- will end up in the blue column for the first time since 1976. By the way, if Missouri was a decisive state in the electoral college, we'd be talking about St. Louis City and county and lots of provisional ballots. While we've called Missouri for McCain, remember we said he's the "apparent" winner; we're well aware, more vote count has a way of just showing up.

    *** When Harry met Joe: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will have a closed meeting with Sen. Joe Lieberman sometime today, NBC's Ken Strickland reports. While both offices have refused to discuss details of the meeting, the men are expected to discuss Lieberman's fate as chairman of the Homeland Security Committee and possibly his status within the Democratic caucus -- after Lieberman vigorously campaigned for McCain and against Obama. At one time, Reid still seemed to reluctantly stand by Lieberman, arguing that every vote was significant and that punishing Lieberman could force him to switch to the Republican Party. But as the election progressed with estimates showing that Democrats might pick up several more seats -- as they did -- Reid's talk of support changed to talk of post-election reevaluation. Strickland says this meeting is a step in that process. The thing for reporters to ask today: Does Obama have an opinion on this? Should Obama have a say in Lieberman's fate? After all, it was Obama whom Lieberman campaigned against the hardest, not the Democratic Party as a whole. Lieberman wasn't out there campaigning for Republican senators to win re-election. Will Obama urge his soon-to-be former Senate colleagues to not punish Lieberman?

    *** What's left: Speaking of the Senate, there are four undecided races, and here's the skinny on each. 1) ALASKA: Both Democrats and Republicans believe that incumbent -- and indicted -- GOP Sen. Ted Stevens will probably hold on to victory. (Though some have found it striking that there appears to be fewer voters for this election with a favorite daughter on the ballot than in 2004?!?!? Something tells us there are a LOT more ballots to be counted. There were over 300,000 voters in 2004; With 99% of precincts supposedly reporting, there are less than 220,000 voters; Seriously?!?!? Call us conspiracy theorists if you'd like, but logic dictates that there must be a heckuva a lot more vote to be counted in Alaska.) But if Stevens is declared the winner, that's just the beginning of the story. Stevens faces possible expulsion from the Senate, or he might resign first to avoid that fate. If Stevens resigns or is expelled, Gov. Sarah Palin would have to call for a special election, which would take place 60 to 90 days after Palin called for it. 2) GEORGIA: With incumbent Sen. Saxby Chambliss sitting just under 50%, we're possibly headed to a December 2 run-off between Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin. Could there be a recount to determine the run-off? Can the state afford to do that and still allow for a December 2 run-off? 3) MINNESOTA: Given that the current margin separating Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken is just a few hundred votes, we're headed for an automatic recount. Democrats tell First Read that this recount could stretch into December. 4) OREGON: Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley is currently leading incumbent GOP Sen. Gordon Smith, and both Democrats and Republicans believe it will stay that way due to the fact that most of the outstanding vote is in Democratic-leaning areas. That would give the Democrats an additional Senate pick-up.

    VIDEO: MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell looks at the senate seats still up for grabs.

    *** To expel or not to expel: NBC's Strickland also breaks down what may happen to Stevens if he's re-elected. Any member of the Senate can offer a motion to expel at any time, and it requires 67 votes to pass.  But just because it's offered, doesn't mean Majority Leader Reid will call it up for a vote. Reid's office won't discuss his intentions, and his public statement seems to put the onus on Republicans to deal with Stevens. A more desirable scenario, according to Democratic and GOP aides, is for Stevens to resign on his own without the spectacle of a public vote. But Stevens' own actions suggest the Alaska senator will not go gently. The dilemma for Republicans is initiating the expulsion process on their most senior member before Stevens has a chance to appeal his verdict. For Democrats, the dilemma is giving soaring speeches about taking corruption out of Washington, but when allowed the opportunity to expel a convicted felon with a simple vote they sit on their hands. Expect senior Republican leaders to privately approach Stevens about quitting on his own. And if that doesn't work, then wait to see which member -- if any -- will call for an expulsion vote, and if Reid will allow it. The Senate resumes session on November 17th.

    *** I will survive, hey, hey: The lion's share of analysis of Tuesday's downballot races pulled out a tape measure for Obama's coattails. Wins like Bev Perdue's in North Carolina's gubernatorial race and the Udall cousins in New Mexico and Colorado -- while not solely products of Obama's success -- certainly weren't hurt by his unprecedented ground games in battleground states. But while the GOP's defeats in the West and the Northeast reveal a lot about the party's weaknesses, its survivors in some blu(ish, purple) states may point the way to its future. Indiana's incumbent Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels, for example, survived a challenge from a financially troubled Democratic opponent and is diving into a second-term agenda that focuses on creative fiscal solutions, scholarship funding, and a business-friendly executive style. And GOP senator Susan Collins in Maine, once eyed as a prime target by Democrats but buoyed by a record of bipartisanship, breezed by challenger Tom Allen. (With Senate flips in NH and NC, that makes Maine the only remaining state with two Republican senators that voted blue in the presidential race.) Does this speak more to the position of the country and who does well? Moderates. Even among Democrats who flipped Republican seats, they were "conservative" Democrats largely. Does this speak of a possible realignment -- to the center?

    Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 63 days
    Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 75 days

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  • The transition: Will Rahm accept?

    USA Today front-pages, "Barack Obama spent his first day as president-elect thanking the people who helped him win the job and lining up his White House team, starting with fiery congressman and Clinton administration veteran Rahm Emanuel as his chief of staff." 

    The New York Times says that although Emanuel "was said to be concerned about the effects on his family and giving up his influential role on Capitol Hill, many Democrats said they expected him to accept it. Mr. Obama named John D. Podesta, the former Clinton White House chief of staff, to lead his transition team along with Valerie Jarrett, a longtime adviser, and Pete Rouse, his Senate chief of staff. In turning to Mr. Emanuel and Mr. Podesta, Mr. Obama sought out two of the hardest-hitting veterans of President Bill Clinton's administration, known for their deep Washington experience, savvy and no-holds-barred approach to politics. Neither is considered a practitioner of the 'new politics' that Mr. Obama promised on the campaign trail to bring Republicans and Democrats together, suggesting that the cool and conciliatory new president is determined to demonstrate toughness from the beginning."

    Politico: "Emanuel has said to friends that he wants and will take the job, but aides said it was not a done deal as of late Wednesday… If Emanuel --- a member of the House Democratic leadership with ambitions to one day be speaker -- were to turn it down, former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) would likely get the nod, the sources said."

    "Some Democrats have warned that Emanuel's take-no-prisoners style could hurt Obama. But the president-elect wants to move fast to push his legislative agenda through the Democratic-controlled Congress -- and Emanuel knows the Hill and power politics as well as anyone in town." 

    "President-elect Barack Obama is strongly considering Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head the Environmental Protection Agency, a Cabinet post, Democratic officials told Politico. Obama's transition planners are weighing several other celebrity-level political stars for Cabinet posts, including retired Gen. Colin L. Powell for secretary of defense or education, the officials said. Kennedy's cousin, Caroline Kennedy, who helped Obama lead his vice presidential search, is being considered for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, although some Obama officials doubt she would take the post. Obama is indebted to the Kennedy family for a hearty endorsement at a crucial point in the Democratic primaries."

    The New Republic makes the case for Geithner for Treasury, whom they call the "next Larry Summers."  However, word is Obama and Geithner have no personal relationship.

    The Wall Street Journal has a great transition chart... Most provocative name on their list: Olympia Snowe for Commerce secretary.

    The Washington Post also has more names for possible cabinet positions. 

    The New York Post's cover: "Bamelot." The Post also looks at potential cabinet picks.

    The Obama folks announced their transition co-chairs -- John Podesta, Valerie Jarrett, and Pete Rouse -- as well as an advisory board including former EPA head Carol Browner, former Commerce Secretary William Daley, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, and former Energy and Transportation Secretary Federico Pena.

    The Obama campaign also unveiled its transition staff:
    Chris Lu - Executive Director
    Dan Pfeiffer - Communications Director
    Stephanie Cutter - Chief Spokesperson
    Cassandra Butts - General Counsel
    Jim Messina - Personnel Director
    Patrick Gaspard - Associate Personnel Director
    Christine Varney - Personnel Counsel
    Melody Barnes - Co-Director of Agency Review
    Lisa Brown - Co-Director of Agency Review
    Phil Schiliro - Director of Congressional Relations
    Michael Strautmanis - Director of Public Liaison and Intergovernmental Affairs
    Katy Kale - Director of Operations
    Brad Kiley - Director of Operations

    Michelle Obama's spokeswoman yesterday released a statement saying that Mrs. Obama had spoken with Laura Bush. "Mrs. Bush offered her congratulations on the election. In addition to wishing her a happy birthday, Mrs. Obama thanked her for the grace and strength she's demonstrated as First Lady, and expressed appreciation for her guidance in the coming months as the Obama family begins their transition. Mrs. Bush extended an invitation for Mrs. Obama and her two daughters to visit the White House in the coming weeks. A date for the visit will be set soon."

  • The agenda: First 1,000 days?

    The New York Times writes, "Mr. Obama's advisers said they were startled, if gratified, by the jubilation that greeted the news of Mr. Obama's victory in much of the United States and abroad. But while the energy of his supporters could be a tremendous political asset as Mr. Obama works to enact his agenda after taking office in January, his aides said they were looking to temper hopes that he would be able to solve the nation's problems or fully reverse Bush administration policies quickly and easily, especially given the prospect of a deep and long-lasting recession."

    More: "Mr. Obama will hit that theme at a news conference he is expected to hold over the coming days, and in most of his public appearances from here on out, aides said. They said they would discourage the traditional yardstick for measuring the accomplishments of a new president -- the first 100 days. Mr. Obama told an interviewer toward the end of his campaign that it was more appropriate to talk about the first 1,000 days." 

    Promises, promises. A look at what Obama has promised on foreign policy, crime, the economy, health care, energy, the environment, education and immigration.

    "But while Democrats and Republicans agree there is a general mandate for change, Obama's ability to make those changes when he takes office in January is far from clear. While 52 percent of voters backed Obama, only 17 percent of those surveyed before the election said they trusted the government most of the time, a historic low. Moreover, with Democrats failing to win enough seats to stop a Senate filibuster, the new president will need support from Republicans to enact his ideas."

    "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi yesterday pledged that the Democratic-controlled Congress would take a bipartisan approach in working with the incoming Obama administration, saying Democrats need to 'govern from the middle' to accomplish an ambitious agenda on the economy, energy independence, and healthcare. The California Democrat made clear that her party, which significantly expanded its majorities in both chambers of Congress in Tuesday's elections, would pursue legislation long stalled by the Bush administration but supported by lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, such as expanded children's healthcare and stem cell research."

    From Politico: "In a move that shocked many of his colleagues, Rep. Henry A. Waxman (D-Calif.) announced Wednesday that he'll challenge Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.) for the chairmanship of the House Energy and Commerce Committee.  Dingell is a popular 'Old Bull' who will likely have the support of his fellow committee chairmen, who see Waxman's move as a threat to the hallowed seniority system."

  • Looking back at the election

    Here's a graphic with the new balance of power in the U.S. Senate, House and governorships.

    Here's also a county-by-county graphic of how the country voted.

    Social issues didn't figure as prominently in this cycle as in years past, but the results of ballot initiatives on gay marriage and abortion indicate that they remain hot topics that trend towards the conservative in statewide votes.

    Carter was the last Democrat to get above 50% in the popular vote. Obama's 52% is the highest since 1964 for Democrat. George H.W. Bush and Ronald Reagan achieved more of the vote in 84 and 88.

    Dean Deluxe? "Nobody is crediting Howard Dean with Barack Obama's historic victory Tuesday night -- certainly not Howard Dean. But a day after Obama remade the electoral map with wins in previously deep-red states like Virginia and Indiana, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee said he does believe Obama's campaign has shown the value of his much-maligned 50-state strategy, especially when the right candidate comes along."

    Some key upcoming dates… "Dec. 9: Deadline for states to resolve issues regarding election recounts, controversies, or contests; Dec. 15: Electors meet in their states to cast votes for president and vice president. They are not required by federal law to follow the will of the popular vote in their state; Dec. 24: Deadline for designated officials, such as the president of the Senate and others, to have the electoral votes in hand, though states do not face any legal penalty if they don't comply; Jan. 6, 2009: Congress meets to count the electoral votes. The president and vice president must win a majority of electoral votes, or 270, to be elected. If there is no majority, the House selects the president, and the Senate selects the vice president; Jan. 20: The president-elect is sworn into office.

  • McCain: The infighting begins

    The New York Times looks into some of the infighting between the McCain and Palin camps. "As a top adviser in Senator John McCain's now-imploded campaign tells the story, it was bad enough that Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska unwittingly scheduled, and then took, a prank telephone call from a Canadian comedian posing as the president of France. Far worse, the adviser said, she failed to inform her ticketmate about her rogue diplomacy. As a senior adviser in the Palin campaign tells the story, the charge is absurd. The call had been on Ms. Palin's schedule for three days and she should not have been faulted if the McCain campaign was too clueless to notice."

    More: "[T]wo top McCain campaign advisers said that the clothing purchases for Ms. Palin and her family were a particular source of outrage for them. As they portrayed it, Ms. Palin had been advised by Nicolle Wallace, a senior McCain aide, that she should buy three new suits for the Republican National Convention in St. Paul in September and three additional suits for the fall campaign. The budget for the clothes was anticipated to be from $20,000 to $25,000, the officials said. Instead, in a public relations debacle undermining Ms. Palin's image as an everywoman "hockey mom," bills came in to the Republican National Committee for about $150,000, including charges of $75,062 at Neiman Marcus and $49,425 at Saks Fifth Avenue. The bills included clothing for Ms. Palin's family and purchases of shoes, luggage and jewelry, the advisers said." 

    What's next for McCain? "Before resting from the grueling presidential race, John McCain began discussing with senior aides what role he will play in the Senate now that he has promised to work with the man who defeated him for president," the AP reports. "Democrats, who padded their majorities in the House and Senate, have a suggestion: McCain can mediate solutions to partisan standoffs on key legislation as he did to help avert a constitutional meltdown over judicial confirmations in 2005."

  • GOP's future: More trouble ahead?

    "Thumped convincingly in consecutive election cycles, the Republican Party now finds itself in its worse straits since the rise of the conservative coalition -- a minority party without the White House, fewer seats in the House and Senate, only 21 governors and full control of just 14 state legislatures," Politico's Martin writes. "Most ominously for Republicans, the GOP is increasingly becoming less grand than old -- and outdated. As reflected in Tuesday's results and exit polls, it's a party that is overwhelmingly white, rural and aged in a country that is rapidly becoming racially mixed, suburban and dominated by a post-baby boomer generation with no memory of Vietnam or the familiar culture wars of the past.

    "Beyond demography, the party is now, thanks to the outgoing president and some members of Congress, perceived by many voters as either incompetent, corrupt, or just not standing for much. Even on fiscal issues -- for decades central to the GOP's appeal -- Republicans now lag."  
     
    The AP asks, "Is Sarah Palin the answer for defeated Republicans? … In her hometown of Wasilla in the Anchorage suburbs, 'Palin 2012' T-shirts are already for sale. When she returned to Alaska on Wednesday night after losing the election, she was greeted at the Anchorage airport by chants of '2012! 2012!' Asked by reporters if she might run for president, Palin said, 'We'll see what happens then.'" Others Republican names to watch: Mitt Romney, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who "is heading to the leadoff caucus state of Iowa on Nov. 22 to deliver the keynote address to a conservative group."

    Jennifer Rubin makes a good point: It's amazing the Dem landslide wasn't worse. More proof we're a center-right country?

    Roll Call looks at Republicans' Senate map for 2010. Sens. Jim Bunning (KY), Judd Gregg (NH), George Voinovich (OH), David Vitter (LA), and Mel Martinez (FL) -- among others -- will all be playing defense in two years.

    NRCC Chair Tom Cole is fighting to keep his spot at the top of the House race battle team. "In a memo to his GOP colleagues in which he asks them to grant him another term at the helm of the National Republican Congressional Committee, NRCC Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) makes his case on the grounds that Tuesday's loss of approximately 20 seats amounted to a victory of sorts given the toxic political environment for Republicans and predictions that the House GOP Conference would lose well in excess of 30 seats."

  • Down the ballot: Who succeeds Obama?

    ILLINOIS: The campaign of change that led Barack Obama to the White House will bring tangible change to Illinois, where embattled Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich has the task of selecting the junior U.S. senator's replacement… Much speculation has surrounded members of Illinois' congressional delegation, including Reps. Jesse Jackson Jr., Danny Davis and Jan Schakowsky. Jackson and Schakowsky served as national co-chairs of Obama's presidential campaign. The three were among the people Blagojevich called 'great candidates out there. This is what makes this so difficult,' he said. Another name repeatedly brought up has been Tammy Duckworth, a disabled Iraq war veteran and 2006 failed congressional candidate. She became the governor's veterans affairs director after losing her first political race."

    MINNESOTA: "A slugfest for nearly two years, Minnesota's U.S. Senate race headed into a new round Wednesday as the campaigns girded for an automatic statewide recount to determine whether Republican Sen. Norm Coleman's bare lead over Democratic challenger Al Franken would stand. Coleman declared himself the winner of Tuesday's election, but Franken said he would let the recount play out, hoping it would erase the incumbent's 475-vote lead out of nearly 2.9 million ballots. State officials said the recount wouldn't start until mid-November and would probably take weeks."

    VIRGINIA: In the results of two outstanding House races in Virginia, Democrats appear to be taking the lead.

  • Richardson mum on job interview

    From NBC's Ken Strickland
    In a post-election conference call with elected officials from the Western part of the country, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson gave reporters the silent treatment when asked directly about whether he'd been contacted about a job in an Obama administration. 

    Denver Post reporter Anne Mulkern first tried the broad, overarching approach on the group, which besides Richardson, included Senate Majority Leader Reid, Colorado Senator Ken Salazar, Montana Governor Schweitzer, and Colorado Governor Ritter.

    "I was wondering if any of you have any thoughts about how the West would be represented [in a Obama Administration]" Mulkern asked.  "Has [Obama] contacted anyone on this phone call about a position?"

    After five seconds of silence, Salazar jumped in, saying he expected someone from the West to join the administration. But he did not name names. 

    "Any names you want to offer up?" Mulkern asked.  Salazar played it safe, saying the selection process was just starting, but again gave no names.

    Finally, Mulkern went in for the kill:  "Okay, I just want to ask Governor Richardson if he's been contacted because his name as definitely been out there."  Four seconds of silence, followed by some laugher.

    "I don't think it's appropriate," Senator Reid started to say, then quickly changed gears.  "There's no one more qualified to be part of the president's cabinet than Bill Richardson and I would hope that he's under consideration."   

    Not a peep from Governor Richardson.

  • The outstanding Senate contests

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    MINNESOTA.
    Given that the current margin separating Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken is some 690 votes, we're headed for an automatic recount. Democrats tell NBC News that this recount could stretch into December. Republicans say that because the state's ballots are mostly opti-scan -- and not punch-cards with its hanging chads, etc. -- they're confident that the recount won't change the results, which have Coleman slightly ahead. 

    OREGON.
    Although Republican Sen. Gordon Smith is currently ahead in the polls, both Democrats and Republicans say that most of the outstanding vote is in Democratic-leaning areas, which will probably tip the race to Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley. That would give the Democrats an additional Senate pick-up.

    GEORGIA.
    With incumbent Sen. Saxby Chambliss sitting just under 50%, we're headed to a December 2 run-off between Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin. There is some debate over whom would benefit in a run-off. One school of thought is that an energized Democratic Party, combined with a demoralized GOP, could benefit Martin. But Republicans say that with Obama no longer on the ballot, they feel pretty confident of winning a run-off in this red state.

    ALASKA.
    Both Democrats and Republicans believe that incumbent -- and indicted -- GOP Sen. Ted Stevens will probably hold on to victory in Alaska. But that's just the beginning of the story. Stevens faces possible expulsion from the Senate, or he might resign first to avoid that fate. If Stevens resigns or is expelled, Gov. Sarah Palin would have to call for a special election, which would take place 60 to 90 days after Palin called for it.

  • Emanuel accepts top slot in Obama WH

    From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
    A senior Obama advisor confirms to NBC News that Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel has accepted the job of Chief of Staff for the Obama White House.

    *** UPDATE *** In an email to NBC News, Emanuel spokeswoman Sarah Feinberg denies the reporting that Emanuel has accepted the chief of staff job.

  • Pelosi cautious on policy predictions

    From NBC's Mike Viqueira
    House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is seeking to limit expectations on what a new Democratic regime will be able to achieve in the 111th Congress.

    "We have to choose our priorities" and decide "what is achievable," Pelosi told reporters this morning, adding: "A lot of it is about time." She saied that the current economic conditions and budget deficit "are going to make it harder" to do some big things dear to Democrats, like comprehensive health care reform, but said that smaller, "discrete," initiatives, i.e. SCHIP and stem cell funding, could be done quickly.

    In response to a question, she confirmed that she spoke with the president-elect this morning by phone, but said they merely talked about some of the things that they are going to have to talk about in the coming days.

    Asked whether Americans can expect a "more left Congress," she repeated the mantra that she has used since obtaining the speaker's gavel two years ago: "The country must be governed from the middle."

    She was coy with the question of whether Rahm Emanuel would be going down the Avenue to take the job as Obama's Chief of Staff. "I have not been informed of that decision," she said.

  • Source: Hagel keeping options open

    From NBC's Ken Strickland
    If the Obama transition team is trying to bring outgoing Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel on board as part of a future administration, it hasn't made those intentions known within the past week, says a source close to the Nebraska senator. 

    However, the source says, Hagel continues to keep his options open about his future -- a far cry from the explicit dismissals from Republican Dick Lugar.

    While the source wouldn't give up much, there was no denying that there has always been an open channel of communication with the Obama campaign, since Biden was picked to become future VP. Biden and Hagel are very good friends -- both as Senate colleagues on the Foreign Relations Committee and as close personal friends who talk often.

    Could Biden be talking to Hagel about a job as "a friend" instead of in his official capacity as VP-elect? Entirely possible, but not knowable -- or confirmable -- at this point.

  • Lieberman congratulates Obama

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    Earlier this morning, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-D) -- who vigorously campaigned for McCain and sometimes criticized Obama during the general election -- released a statement congratulating the new president-elect.

    "I sincerely congratulate President-elect Obama for his historic and impressive victory. America remains a nation of extraordinary opportunity and the American people are a people of extraordinary fairness. Now that the election is over, it is time to put partisan considerations aside and come together as a nation to solve the difficult challenges we face and make our blessed land stronger and safer. I pledge to work with President-elect Obama and his incoming Administration in their efforts to reinvigorate our economy and keep our nation secure and free."

    One of the more interesting stories to follow over the next few weeks will be whether Lieberman continues to caucus with the Democrats and whether he retains his chairmanship of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. 

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