From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
 *** Obama crosses 270: After moving the battlegrounds of Colorado and Virginia from Toss-up to Lean Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee now has crossed the 270 Electoral Vote threshold in NBC's electoral map. One week before the election, Obama leads McCain 286-163, up from his 264-163 advantage a week ago. As we pointed out on Friday, the significance of moving Colorado and Virginia into Obama's column is this: If Obama wins those two states, plus Nevada, he can still get to 270 -- even if he loses Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. In addition to the Colorado and Virginia changes, we have moved McCain's home state of Arizona from Likely McCain to Lean McCain, a tip to the reality that Arizona, without McCain on the ticket, would have been a contested battleground. A new poll conducted by a Democratic group found McCain with just a four-point lead over Obama in the state, 48%-44%. This comes on the heels of private polls we have seen that show the presidential contest to be tight in Arizona. In addition, McCain's collapse in Hispanic support is contributing to this downturn here as well. Of course, it's worth pointing out that our map reflects how things stand right now. Yet, with eight days remaining, McCain is running out of time to change the dynamics of the race.

Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on a new set of polls from the battleground map and discusses the importance Colorado and Virginia have come to play as they shift from 'toss-up' to 'Obama'.

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (175 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: CO, IA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, PA, VA, WI (111 votes)
Toss-up: FL, IN, MO, NV, NC, OH (89 votes)
Lean McCain: AZ, GA, MT, NE 02, ND, SD, WV (40 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (123 votes)

*** Obama's closer: In a speech from Canton, OH that his campaign is billing as his closing argument, Obama today will contend that his candidacy represents a change from President Bush's economic policies and philosophy -- which he says McCain will follow. "When it comes to the economy, when it comes to the central issue of this election, the plain truth is that John McCain has stood with this President every step of the way," he will say, according to excerpts of the speech. What's more, Obama will call for changing the tone in Washington. (But haven't we heard this before? Both Bush 43 and Clinton 42 promised this.) "[T]he change we need isn't just about new programs and policies. It's about a new politics -- a politics that calls on our better angels instead of encouraging our worst instincts; one that reminds us of the obligations we have to ourselves and one another." What's interesting here is his avoidance of mentioning the potential for unchecked Dem political power in Congress. Also, he's trying to turn the "readiness" tables on McCain by painting him as "risky" because of his shared philosophy with Bush. By the way, as for the unchecked power, did Hillary Clinton and Al Franken accidentally do the GOP a favor with the TV ad she's running for him that touts 60 Senate seats and the potential for Franken to be No. 60? 

*** McCain Meets the Press: As Obama today attempts to paint McCain as an extension of Bush's economic policies, the Arizona senator didn't help himself much on this front when he said this on NBC's Meet the Press: "So do [Bush and I] share a common philosophy of the Republican Party? Of course." McCain then added, "But I've, I've stood up against my party, not just President Bush, but others; and I've got the scars to prove it, including taking up, with Ted Kennedy, immigration reform, knowing full well that that was going to hurt my chances in the primaries. So I could go down a long list of issues with you." One of those issues that McCain didn't mention in the interview was his votes against the 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts. In fact, those votes could have been McCain's rebuttal to Obama's charge that the Arizona senator is in lockstep with Bush on economic matters.

Video: John McCain lays out his plans to turn the economy around including cuts in spending and taxes, investment incentives, and stock market reform.

Ponder this what-if: What if McCain, after clinching the GOP nomination in March, had moved to the center on economic policy, saying that now -- with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as a rising national debt -- wasn't the time to extend Bush's tax cuts for the well-off? Or what if he picked some other economic policy to distance himself from Bush? There will be a lot of Wednesday-morning quarterbacking next week, if he loses, about how McCain spent the first four months of his general election campaign.

*** Palin as Jason Bourne? The big political intrigue over the weekend was the Politico story noting that Palin had "gone rogue" -- ignoring the McCain campaign's advice, as well as seeming to break with McCain on a few issues (like raising Jeremiah Wright and the campaign's decision to give up on Michigan). And then a McCain adviser said this to CNN: "She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone. She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else. Also, she is playing for her own future and sees herself as the next leader of the party. Remember: Divas trust only unto themselves, as they see themselves as the beginning and end of all wisdom." Wow. Of course, tension between the running mate -- who is looking out for his/her political future -- and the principal's campaign is nothing new. (See Edwards, John.) But what is new is how this has become public consumption before Election Day. (We didn't really know about the Kerry-Edwards tension until after the campaign?) No doubt Palin is looking out for her political future after this campaign. The question is whether this tension ends up damaging her for 2012…

*** Still talking about the clothes? Yesterday, the McCain-Palin campaign pushed back harder on the $150,000 shopping-spree story than it did when the news first broke. Also, Palin devoted the first couple minutes of her speech in Florida to the clothes story, mentioning (among other things) that she wears a $35 wedding ring. A few questions here: What took so long? Could it be the campaign couldn't get the full story out of the RNC until this weekend? How bad is the relationship between the RNC and the McCain campaign? By the way, there still isn't a good accounting for these purchases. Will a post-election audit of the RNC's finances turn up shenanigans? How this story is still going strong this weekend is just a PR debacle... By the way, as CNN reported, Palin mentioning her clothes yesterday wasn't in the prepared remarks the campaign had for her yesterday.

*** Poll Watch: One reason why observers were baffled by the McCain-Palin team's time-intensive visits to the Hawkeye State this weekend (including the ironically-named Waterloo, where Meet the Press met up with McCain yesterday) ... A new Mason-Dixon poll shows Obama up 11 points in the state (51%-40%). The numbers came out alongside new polls in Georgia, where McCain is holding on to a six-point lead (49%-43%) and Missouri, where he holds a single-point advantage (46%-45%) in a state that could keep us up late next Tuesday. Also, a new Washington Post poll shows Obama leading McCain by eight points in Virginia, 52%-44%.

*** Downballot watch: Just how bad is it going to be for House Republicans? The Los Angeles Times notes a bunch of House GOPers in the Golden State who were once untargeted are now nervous. And late last week, we noticed the NRCC sent out attack press releases in three races that just shocked us --WY At-Large, IL-6, and IN-3. Trust us, if you are worried about Dick Cheney's old House seat as well as one once held by Henry Hyde, things are not going well. The chatter about a 35-seat loss for the GOP doesn't appear to be "chicken little" type rhetoric anymore. As one top Dem strategist told First Read last week, this election cycle -- more so than in 2006 -- will see quite a few Democrats elected that the DCCC basically ignored.

*** Fun fact of the day: An unfamiliar sight will greet Texas voters this year. There's no Bush on the ballot. The last time there wasn't a Bush on the Texas ballot -- or in Texas office -- was 1976. And if you exclude '71 to '77, there has been a Bush on the Texas ballot or in office since '64. Why does this matter? The Republican win in Texas will be its smallest victory since 1988, and is one of the reasons why most folks do not believe McCain can win the popular vote because he won't rack up the margins in this big state like Republicans in the past have.

*** On the trail: McCain begins his day in Ohio, holding an economic meeting in Cleveland and then a rally in Dayton before attending another rally in Pottsville, PA. Obama gives his closing-argument speech in Canton, OH and later campaigns in Pittsburgh, PA. Biden stumps in North Carolina (Greenville and Greensboro) and then in Florida (Port Richey). And Palin spends her day in Virginia, hitting Leesburg, Fredericksburg, and Salem.

Countdown to Election Day 2008: 8 days
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 73 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 85 days
 
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The New York Times front-pages, "With optimism brimming in Democratic circles, Mr. Obama will present on Monday what aides described as a summing-up speech for his campaign in Canton, Ohio, reprising the themes he first presented in February 2007, when he began his campaign for the presidency. From here on out, Mr. Obama's aides said, attacks on Mr. McCain will be joined by an emphasis on broader and less partisan themes, like the need to unify the country after a difficult election."

More: "McCain has settled on Pennsylvania as the one state that Democrats won in 2004 where he has a decent chance of winning, a view not shared by Mr. Obama's advisers. But Mr. McCain and his running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, are planning to spend most of their time in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana, all states that Republicans had entered the campaign thinking they could bank on. Mr. McCain will stick with the message he has embraced over the last week, presenting Mr. Obama as an advocate of big government and raising taxes. His advisers say they will limit the numbers of rallies where he and Ms. Palin appear together, to cover more ground in the final days."

The Washington Post notes how Obama isn't mentioning the fact that his party could be on the verge of unprecedented political power. "Yet, in his recent speeches in early-voting states that went for President Bush four years ago, Obama never mentions a future in which Democrats run Washington. Instead, he seeks to reassure voters that what comes after Nov. 4, if he is successful, will not be a revolution but more of a reconciliation. 'Together, we cannot fail,' he says. 'Not now. Not when we have a crisis to solve and an economy to save.'"

"Obama, in his short tenure in the Senate, has rarely crossed Democratic orthodoxy, and McCain says his opponent cannot point to a significant issue on which he disagrees with the Democratic congressional leadership. But even on the issue that propelled his success in the Democratic primaries, his opposition to the war in Iraq, Obama's message these days is one of soothing, nonpartisan conciliation."

"McCain, behind in the polls and looking for a comeback, declared yesterday that voters should elect him president to create a check on a Democratic Congress. McCain also suggested that Barack Obama is acting as though he had already won, but he focused on warning activists of the dangers of Democrats pushing for higher taxes and bigger government."

The New York Times notes, as we have, that the battleground is on Republican turf. "Senator John McCain and Senator Barack Obama are heading into the final week of the presidential campaign planning to spend nearly all their time in states that President Bush won last time, testimony to the increasingly dire position of Mr. McCain and his party as Election Day approaches." 
 

Video: With just eight days to go until the presidential election, Barack Obama and John McCain focus on some of the battleground states. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.

COLORADO: Obama drew 100,000 in Denver yesterday. The AP said it was "so enormous and energetic that even he seemed surprised at his following… It rippled with the kind of enthusiasm found at victory rallies." Later, Obama held a rally at Colorado State and drew 45,000. "Obama's campaign is capitalizing on the scope of such rallies to get people to cast votes early, which is permitted in Colorado and more than two dozen other states. 'How many people have early-voted?' Obama said, eliciting cheers from people bundled up in fleece. 'That's what I'm talking about. No point in waiting in lines if you don't have to. You know who you're going to vote for.'"

Yet early voting after Barack Obama's huge rally in Denver did not see the huge turnout some had expected.

The Rocky Mountain News looks in-depth at the youth vote in Colorado and nationwide.

FLORIDA: Not that there's anything wrong with that. Celebs are hitting the trail for both candidates. Obama supporter Jason Alexander, who played George Constanza on Seinfeld, "said he contacted the Obama campaign to volunteer himself and was dispatched to speak to retirement communities in Tamarac and Pembroke Pines."

The St. Pete Times looks at the sprawling Obama ground game in the Sunshine State. "Today the campaign counts 230,000 volunteers in Florida, including 19,000 'neighborhood team' members focused intensely on 1,400 neighborhoods across the state, usually covering four or five precincts. Those volunteers, many largely working free of a paid field organizer, become responsible to one another and motivate their cohorts to get out the vote in their own or an assigned neighborhood."

GEORGIA: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution spends a day with Libertarian candidate Bob Barr.

INDIANA: Weekend voting exceeded expectations in crucial Marion County.

MISSOURI: "A recent study by electionline.org, a nonpartisan research foundation, placed Missouri on a list of roughly a dozen states that have a high probability of encountering significant problems on Nov. 4," the Boston Globe writes. "Like the other states, Missouri has several possibly troublesome factors, including new voter identification laws, a heated race for a statewide office, a ballot packed with candidates and initiatives, and a highly charged, partisan atmosphere. Missouri has the added complication of being a swing state in the presidential race, with the candidates virtually tied."

NORTH CAROLINA: A Charlotte Observer piece looks at the changing population that has put the state in play. "The waves of moderates and independents who have moved here have made this a battleground state, one that Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama has a chance to win, pollsters say. That's a massive shift for a state where Sen. Jesse Helms used race in 1990 and 1996 to beat Senate seat rival Harvey Gantt, Charlotte's only black mayor." 
 
Need to brush up on your Carolina facts, TV talking heads? Here's a primer, courtesy of some local experts.

OHIO: Some ouch-y numbers in Ohio's Franklin County. "Of the 29,661 Franklin County residents who cast ballots through Saturday at the early voting center at Veterans Memorial, 14,992 are registered as Democrats, 1,260 are Republicans and 13,409 are unaffiliated. Unaffiliated voters are those who haven't voted a partisan ballot in a primary, including the newly registered."

plane lands safely in Cleveland," the Cleveland Plain Dealer is reporting that Cuyahoga County vote counting is going to be SLOW.

The Univ. of Cincinnati poll, one that normally has a slight GOP tilt to it, has Obama up by three points for the first time. That's a significant shift in this poll.

VIRGINIA: A Washington Post poll has Obama up eight points in the state, 52%-44%.

WEST VIRGINIA: The fight for West Virginia is the ultimate test of the economy vs. culture.

Bill Kristol's final advice for the McCain campaign: "Time for McCain to attack — or, rather, finally to make his case. The heart of that case has to be this: reminding voters that when they elect a president, they're not just electing a super-Treasury secretary or a higher-level head of Health and Human Services. They're electing a commander in chief in time of war. The McCain campaign intends, I gather, to return to the commander in chief theme with an event in Florida Wednesday showcasing former secretaries of state and retired senior military officers. But why not showcase young Iraq vets instead? These young soldiers and marines can testify eloquently to the success of the surge that John McCain championed, and to the disaster and dishonor that would have followed Barack Obama's preferred path of withdrawal."

More: "As for McCain, he needs to speak about America's greatness and its future; about how the ingenuity and toughness of the American people will turn around this financial crisis just as the ingenuity of General Petraeus and the toughness of his fighting men and women turned around Iraq; about how America's spirit was not undone by a terrorist attack, and will not be undone by a financial mess; about how the naysayers will once again be proved wrong; about how America will emerge from its troubles stronger than ever and will win its battles at home and abroad. McCain has a chance to close this election in a big and positive way. He has a chance to get voters to rise above the distractions and to set aside the petty aspects of the campaign. He has a chance to remind them why they have admired him, and perhaps to persuade them to vote for him on Nov. 4."

"Obama is giving what his campaign calls the 'closing argument' of his presidential bid in Ohio, where he already lost once this year, to fellow Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton. 'In one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope,' Obama said in prepared comments released in advance early Monday by his campaign. The longest presidential contest in history is down to just eight days, with Obama and Republican McCain dueling for the electoral riches of Ohio and Pennsylvania."

More excerpts of Obama's speech today: "In one week, you can turn the page on policies that have put the greed and irresponsibility of Wall Street before the hard work and sacrifice of folks on Main Street. In one week, you can choose policies that invest in our middle-class, create new jobs, and grow this economy from the bottom-up so that everyone has a chance to succeed; from the CEO to the secretary and the janitor; from the factory owner to the men and women who work on its floor."
 
"In one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope. In one week, at this defining moment in history, you can give this country the change we need." 

Obama, who will delay the start of Wednesday's possible World Series Game Six for a 30-minute infomercial, might be making his most aggressive pitch through sports media, which he has used to audition as an all-American everyman before one of the few demographic groups that continue to elude him. "Obama is targeting so much sports programming because it trends very much to younger white males, which has been a reliable Republican bloc but is also very much an independent voting bloc, so they're going after McCain's strength," said Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group

"Obama's record-breaking $150 million fund-raising performance in September has prompted questions about whether presidential candidates should be permitted to collect huge sums of money through faceless credit card transactions over the Internet," the Washington Post reports. 

David Axelrod is on the verge of joining the very thin ranks of successful presidential campaign architects.

Yet another ex-GOP officeholder is endorsing Obama. This one: ex-SD GOP Sen. Larry Pressler.

Bill Ayers walking the streets of NYC.

Palin decided to confront the clothes story on the campaign trail yesterday.

How did the RNC get itself into this clothes situation? From Newsweek: "The decision to greenlight the purchases was made after Palin arrived in Minneapolis for the Republican Party convention. Campaign aides quickly concluded that she lacked the necessary wardrobe for two months of intensive national campaigning. 'She didn't have the fancy pantsuits that Hillary Clinton has,' explained one staffer (who, like most others interviewed for this account, declined to be identified speaking about the episode). The problem was figuring out how to pay for new dresswear: the 2002 McCain-Feingold law, co-authored by the GOP candidate, tightened the rules to ban using campaign funds for personal clothing."

"While Jeff Larson, a veteran GOP consultant who headed the party's 'host' committee, provided his credit card for the Palin family shopping spree, he was directed to send the bills over to the Republican National Committee (which was not covered by the clothing ban in McCain-Feingold). RNC officials were not happy about it. 'We were explicitly directed by the campaign to pay these costs,' said one senior RNC official who also requested anonymity. After at first declining to comment, a McCain spokeswoman said the clothes would be donated to charity after the campaign was over."

"Palin said she was getting a bum rap. 'If people knew how frugal we are,' she said. She told Fox News that her 'favorite' store is an Anchorage consignment shop called Out of the Closet. Still, some of the disgruntled party donors said her claim of frugality was hard to square with the details in campaign spending reports, such as the $75,062 one-day tab at the Neiman Marcus in Minneapolis, and $4,902 spent at Atelier New York (a high-end men's store). One veteran GOP consultant (who also requested anonymity) said the real puzzle among his peers is why Larson didn't find a way to disguise the expenses, at least until after the election. Larson declined to comment."

"Palin's signature accomplishment - a contract to build a 1,715-mile pipeline to bring natural gas from Alaska to the Lower 48 - emerged from a flawed bidding process that narrowed the field to a company with ties to her administration, an Associated Press investigation shows. ... Despite Palin's boast of a smart and fair bidding process, the investigation found that her team crafted terms that favored only a few independent pipeline companies and ultimately benefited the winner, TransCanada Corp. And contrary to the ballyhoo, there's no guarantee the pipeline will ever be built; at a minimum, any project is years away..."

"The Anchorage Daily News, Alaska's largest newspaper, endorsed Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama Sunday after declaring Gov. Sarah Palin 'too risky' to be one step away from the Oval Office." Ouch.

Bloomberg's Al Hunt has a great column on the lack of preparation both candidates have given the American people about what's coming. "Fascinating as 2008 has been, neither of these men has educated voters much on the challenges ahead. The tone and substance of the campaign are really no different than six weeks ago, while the world has changed. 'It would have been better if one had told America about the stark realities of how difficult this is going to be,'
says presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin."

"In the 24-7, soundbite-driven politics of today, Goodwin and others say, this may not be possible. It's still unfortunate. Both Obama and McCain devoutly believe in public and civic service and the centrality of sacrifice to American exceptionalism. With two wars and the most severe financial crisis in three-quarters of a century, the times call for shared sacrifice. The foundations of the global economy are in tatters, a $1 trillion deficit looms and any light at the end of the Iraq and Afghanistan tunnels is dim."

ALASKA: Jury deliberations in the trial of US Sen. Ted Stevens will resume this morning at 9:30 am, with an alternate juror stepping in to take the place of another excused because of a death in the family, NBC's Pete Williams reports.

After a hearing Sunday evening, the judge dismissed a woman juror whose father died suddenly late last week. In her place, one of the alternate jurors will take over as a regular member of the jury. This will put deliberations behind a few days, since they'll have to go back to the beginning to get the new juror up to speed.

CALIFORNIA: "California Republicans once expected to cruise to reelection in Congress are now locked in fierce battles to retain their seats, as the nation's economic crisis propels Democrats fighting for districts they have not held in a generation." There are suddenly 3-5 GOP incumbents in the Golden State who could get swept away in a big tidal wave. 

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Shaheen leads Sununu 49%-36% in a Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll. "Democrats are also ahead in the races for governor and both House seats in the traditionally independent Granite State. The only bright news for Republicans is that former congressman Jeb Bradley is within striking distance of winning his seat back from US Representative Carol Shea Porter, who leads by 5 percentage points. The state of the presidential race in New Hampshire will be reported in tomorrow's Globe."

From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger

KISSIMMEE, Fla. – Palin said Sunday that Obama "has already written his inaugural address," going further than the facts on the table.

The New York Times reported Saturday that Obama's transition leader, John Podesta, drafted a sample inaugural speech in a book penned this summer. (Podesta served as an advisor earlier this year to Obama's opponent Hillary Clinton.)  

Palin, speaking Sunday at the Silver Spurs Agenda, suggested that Obama had already penned the inaugural speech himself.

"Just yesterday, the New York Times reported that Barack Obama has already written his inaugural address," she said. Earlier in the day, she told a crowd in Tampa that Obama's "inaugural speech is already written," perhaps a more accurate description.

Palin – campaigning in Florida with Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez – carried a message that the Obama campaign should not be getting ahead of itself.

"We're nine days out from the election and John McCain and I, not taking anything for granted," she said. "We are here asking for your vote, so we can get to work for you, and a lot of folks are still undecided."

Palin, who is also traveling with Elisabeth Hasselbeck of "The View," took time Sunday for interviews with Fox News' Sean Hannity and Entertainment Tonight.

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones

DENVER -- At his second six-figure rally in just over a week, Obama urged his supporters to vote early and again linked his rival to President Bush.

The campaign, citing police, said more than 100,000 people attended the event here.

Obama talked about comments McCain made on Meet the Press this morning. "Just this morning, Sen. McCain said that actually he and President Bush 'share a common philosophy.' That's right, Colorado. I guess that was John McCain finally giving us a little straight talk -- owning up to the fact that he and George Bush actually have a whole lot in common," he said to laughter from the crowd gathered on a chilly Sunday morning near the state capitol building. "Well, here's the thing though: We know what the Bush-McCain philosophy looks like. It's a philosophy that says we should give more and more to millionaires and billionaires and hope that it trickles down on everybody else."

This morning, in talking about his differences with Bush and others in his party, McCain said: "Do we share a common philosophy of the Republican Party? Of course. But I've, I've stood up against my party, not just President Bush, but others; and I've got the scars to prove it."

In rallies in Nevada and New Mexico yesterday, Obama joked about McCain's recent efforts to distance himself from the unpopular Republican president -- at one point calling McCain Bush's "sidekick" and saying that McCain attacking Bush for his economic policies was like "Robin getting mad at Batman." 

The Democratic nominee, who drew 100,000 people to a rally under the Gateway Arch in St. Louis last weekend, told Coloradoans to go out and vote early him -- just as Bush did for McCain -- and argued that as president he would do more to help the middle class.

Denver is in a strongly Democratic county, where Obama is hoping to boost turnout. He was set to hold a rally in Fort Collins later today, which is in strongly Republican Larimer County. Polls show Obama leading McCain in a tight race in the state, which Bush won in 2004.

In talking about his tax policy, Obama mentioned Bill Clinton -- something he does from time to time on the stump. He said he would roll back the Bush tax cuts on the very wealthiest Americans, so that they paid the same rate they paid under Clinton.

"By the way, they were doing fine under Bill Clinton. In fact, they were doing better under Bill Clinton because everybody was doing well," he said. "And those who owned businesses, their customers could actually afford to get their products and hire their services."

Hillary Clinton often invoked her husband's administration on the trail during the primaries to remind people about the relative prosperity of his two terms. Obama is set to rally with the former president in Orlando on Wednesday.

The McCain campaign sent a response to Obama's speech that sought to link him to Bush policies. "Barack Obama can't name a single issue or philosophy on which he's opposed the Democratic-controlled Congress -- not one," wrote Spokesman Tucker Bounds. "John McCain opposed President Bush's wasteful spending policy, his Big Oil energy policy and his efforts to grow the federal government by 40% -- Obama supported Bush on all three."

From NBC's Mark Murray
A new round of state NBC/Mason-Dixon polls show Obama leading in Iowa by 11 points (51%-40%); McCain up by six points in Georgia (49%-43%), and McCain ahead by a single point in Missouri (46%-45%).

Each state poll was conducted of 625 likely voters from October 22-23, with a margin of error of plus-minus 4 percentage points.

From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
TAMPA – Palin itemized her clothing and accessories Sunday, in an attempt to combat discussion of an overpriced wardrobe. And she even provided some personal details.

"My wedding ring, it's in Todd's pocket cause it hurts sometimes when I shake hands and it gets squished," she said. "A $35 wedding ring from Hawaii that I bought myself … cause I always thought with my ring, it's not what it's made of, it's what it represents and 20 years later, happy to wear it."

Palin was prompted by her introducer, Elisabeth Hasselbeck of The View, who in a self-described "sassy" preamble, said the media had become "fixated" on what she wore.

"Now, with everything going on in the world, seems a bit odd," Hasselbeck said. "But let me tell you, this is deliberately sexist."

Palin's comments defending her wardrobe – which began Saturday – came after it was revealed the Republican National Committee spent $150,000 to outfit the vice presidential candidate and her family for the Republican convention. But it also seemed to confirm some media reports that Palin has been adlibbing more on the campaign trail, rejecting the advice of aides loyal to McCain. In one report a McCain source labeled Palin a "diva."

Palin said the clothing, like the lighting and the staging of the convention, were not her property, and said she was back to wearing her own threads, from an Alaskan consignment shop.

She also suggested Obama was being presumptuous, citing rumors that the campaign has drafted an inaugural address. She said though it may seem in the media the coronation has already been set, the McCain campaign was not taking the votes for granted.

"John McCain and I, we're out here asking for your vote so we can get to work for you, and a lot of folks are still undecided," she said. "And you know, Barack Obama and I, we both have spent quite some time on the basketball court. But where I come from, you have to win the game before you start cutting down the nets."

Palin asked Hasselbeck to join her in Florida Sunday, and her appearance seemed to bring more women to the Convention Center of Tampa. Palin has been working in recent days to send a pro-woman message on the campaign trail, with the hope of winning over some voters who were supporting Hillary Clinton.

While lambasting sexism, Hasselbeck used gender stereotypes to highlight Palin's efficiency as governor.

"Did I mention that this woman, she's got a real knack for cleaning," Hasselbeck said. "She cleaned up house in Alaska. Yup. All that corruption went out with the trash."

Hasselbeck – who first met Palin at the Republican convention – has been carrying most of the Republican campaign's water on "The View," which has become increasingly political in recent years. The co-host, a former contestant on "Survivor," said she was happy to just speak for five minutes without being interrupted.

"It's getting hot up here," Hasselbeck said. "And I promise you, when it gets hot in the kitchen, she may be from Alaska, but this woman can take the heat."

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
ALBUQUERQUE, NM - Audra and Sam Kochansky decided to come to John McCain's rally at the New Mexico state fairgrounds today "to hear what they're going to do for us." But they weren't happy with what they heard.

"More of the same," said Audra Kochansky of McCain's remarks.

"This is saber-rattling," said her husband, Sam.

Although these may sound like Democratic talking points, the married pair of nurse anesthetists are lifelong Republicans, but they consider themselves undecided in this election.

Mr. Kochansky, who describes himself as a "diehard Republican who's registered independent," says that Republicans disheartened after eight years of the Bush Administration have been left with an unsavory choice.  "I'm trying to make a decision," he said. "That's not the way the Republican Party should have conducted itself."

To help determine which box they'll check on Election Day, the Kochansky's decided to attend both candidates' rallies in the Albuquerque area today.

If McCain was hoping to win them over, he has some work to do.

"Bush has been very disappointing and I thought maybe there was some hope in McCain but quite frankly it's the same saber rattling, just a different century, and it's disappointing," said Mr. Kochansky. "I want to hear about what he can do for us middle class people. I want specific ideas. I want some specificity to a political plan. Right now it's more negative. It's what Obama's going to do to us but not what he's telling us. He votes for this package for the congressional bailout but then he blames the Democrats."

The pair also said they were surprised that the turnout for today's event, attended by less than a thousand people, was so small. 

An Albuquerque Journal poll conducted in early October showed McCain trailing Obama by five points in the state.

"Just from talking with our neighbors and such it's we're tired of the last eight years and even though McCain says he's not Bush, take a look around you," he said. "It's still the Republican Party, and unfortunately my Republican Party is still the last eight years and that's very disappointing to me."

If Obama gives them more of the same tonight, both Kochansky's said they might have to vote for Libertarian candidate Bob Barr.

But would they consider voting for Obama?

"We've had eight years of saber rattling," Mr. Kochansky said. "It's time to move on, and so if Obama comes down the pike and says 'I have hope for America and this is what it's all about,' yeah, I'll vote for Obama."

Mrs. Kochansky agreed.

From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
SIOUX CITY, Iowa -- Sarah Palin left no one wondering Saturday how she was dealing with the brisk Iowan air.

"It was nice and crisp gettin' off the airplane ... it reminded me a lot of Alaska, so I put my warm jacket on. And it is my own jacket," Palin said at a rally at Sioux City West High School. "It doesn't belong to anybody else."

Palin's quip came amid growing questions about her campaign and tensions among the traveling staff. The Politico reported Saturday that Palin had lost confidence in some of her senior aides and begun relying more on her own instincts.

The article suggested reports this week that the Republican National Committee had spent $150,000 on clothing for her and her family was a final straw.

The Palin campaign was quick to respond to the reports of friction, with campaign spokeswoman Tracey Schmitt delivering a statement at the back of the campaign plane.

"Unnamed sources with their own agenda will say what they want, but from Gov. Palin on down, we have one agenda and that is to win on Election Day," she said.

At the rally, Palin suggested tax increases would create a society where what you thought was yours would be shared by everybody else.

"I don't know what to think of having in my family Uncle Barney Frank or others to make decisions for me," Palin said. "I and John McCain tend to want to trust the American people with their income, their businesses, their things."

From NBC's Abby Livingston
In an interview with NBC's Chuck Todd on MSNBC yesterday, retiring Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) said that despite gloomy GOP outlook, Virginia is still in play in the presidential race.

"In a year like this, in a dynamic like this, you know, the Republicans have to be worried about it," Davis said. "And it'll be close. It'll be -- just remember, [former Virginia governor] Doug Wilder had like a 13-point, 14-point lead the Sunday before the election, and won by one point. So we get into the over-polling in this."

When asked if the McCain campaign made a mistake by not advertising in Northern Virginia, Davis said, "Well, of course they did. But they didn't have it. They had to spread it around. They made different decisions. But I think they're in now. So the last two weeks, I think it closes, and it'll be competitive."

He gave a stark outlook for Republicans in the down ballot races.

"The metrics favor the Democrats," he said. "The Republicans have a lot of retirements that Democrats don't have. You've got a bad economy, a very unpopular president. But I think the most telling feature going into the last two weeks is the fact that the Democrats have huge spending advantages and are able to penetrate a lot of races and keep the Republicans pinned down and on defense."

One of those metrics is the Democrats' financial advantage. He attributes Democratic-leaning labor as part of the advantage, but also noted a shift in parties for donations. 

"Business abandoned the Republicans in droves," Davis said. "You even have the pharmaceuticals, Wall Street giving heavily to Democrats over Republicans. The pharmaceuticals, who Democrats have attacked for years, giving 50-50. I mean, what does that tell you? And on the small-donor base, the out party generally benefits. And they've done a great job raising money over the Internet."

Davis also discussed the policy news of the day, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony before Congress.

"It's a collective responsibility, Chuck. I think that's what we need to understand. I think everybody is going like this, pointing fingers," Davis said, as he pointed in crossing, opposite directions. He added, "But the answer is that I think both Alan Greenspan and [SEC Chairman] Chris Cox all said in retrospect they would have done things differently, but they were hampered by the legislation itself, that didn't allow them to move into some areas, in some of these derivative areas and regulate them like they want."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Check out this piece from the Stamford (CT) Advocate, particularly this line:

"...Lieberman Friday continued to stand by Republican John McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as a running mate. But when asked by The Advocate if Palin is ready to be president from day one, Lieberman said 'thank God she's not going to have to be president from day one. McCain's going to be alive and well.'

He added, "Let's hope she never has to be ready because we hope McCain is elected and live out his term," Lieberman said. "But if, God forbid, an accident occurs or something of that kind, she'll be ready. She's had executive experience. She's smart. And she will have had on-the-job training." ...

"Some high-profile Republicans in recent weeks have publicly condemned McCain's choice of Palin as his running mate and also the tone of their nominee's campaign and its attacks on Obama's character. Lieberman would not do either Friday and at one point scolded reporters for asking him questions about the topic." ...

"Speaking of Obama directly, Lieberman said he might vote for him as president someday in the future, but specified the Democrat is 'less prepared' than McCain.  He later says if McCain loses, he'll "do everything I can to be bringing people together across party lines to support the new president so he can succeed. What's at stake for our country is just too serious."

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
The Obama campaign is attempting to capitalize on one of the biggest football rivalries taking place between two contested swing states. While Penn State and Ohio State duke it out on the football field in Ohio on Saturday, the Obama campaign has recruited volunteers to knock on doors in the two states. They will compete for knocking on the most doors and reaching the largest amount of voters 10 days before Election Day.
 
In Pennsylvania, the Obama campaign reported they have knocked on 2 million doors since June 1 and 370,000 doors last week. In Ohio, volunteers have knocked on over a million doors in the month of October, and more than 480,000 last week. While it appears Ohio is in the lead for this effort, the Obama campaign made a nod toward Pennsylvania, saying they hope "both states turn blue -- Nittany Lion blue."
 
It's worth noting that the Penn State-Ohio State game isn't the only swing-state contest taking place Saturday. Tomorrow night is also another game in the Phillies-vs.-Devil Rays World Series.

*** UPDATE *** Some numbers from an Obama campaign release on what its doing in Ohio:
340,846 --- Number of doors knocked this weekend
483,473 --- Number of doors knocked last week
1,098,777 --- Total number of doors knocked in October
394,335 --- Phone calls placed to fellow Ohioans by volunteers across the state
1,224,684 --- Total calls made this month
38 --- Farthest distance, in miles, that any Ohioan lives from a Campaign for Change office 

From NBC's Ashley Codianni and NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
With 11 days to go, the Obama campaign is feeling good about its position in several of the big battleground states, due to the strength of their ground operations, enthusiasm among their supporters and early voting data, Campaign Manager David Plouffe told reporters on a conference call this afternoon.

Plouffe confidently pointed to Obama's advantage in battleground Pennsylvania to prove that old axiom: Numbers don't lie. "If you look at cold hard numbers, in order for McCain to win Pennsylvania, he is going to have to win at least 15% of the Democratic vote, 95% of the Republican vote and 60% of the independent vote," Plouffe said. "We believe McCain is losing independents by about 20 points right now in Pennsylvania, so he would need a 40 point swing."

He added that the campaign is "surprised" by McCain's campaign performance in the Granite State, "We'd thought there might be a chance he'd over-perform in New Hampshire, given his history with the voters there." Instead, the Palin pick has driven away McCain's traditional independent base in New Hampshire, Plouffe added.   

Plouffe said that the fact that Obama's position had strengthened in Virginia and Colorado was "one of more the significant moments in the election" and that when it came to states George Bush won in 2004, the campaign was playing more offense than defense.
 
"Our whole strategy has been predicated on the fact that these battleground states are going to be decided very narrowly, so that's what we're preparing for. And don't pay too much attention to polling right now," Plouffe said.

He said there are pathways to victory in Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana and West Virginia – a state he called a jump ball – but that the races would be very close. He stressed that campaigning in Indiana and North Carolina had forced McCain to go on the defensive by spending a lot of time and money there.
 
Also on the call were National Field Director Jon Carson and Battleground State Director Jen O'Malley, who discussed early voting patterns among Democrats and voter contact and ground organization in the battlegrounds.
 
O'Malley said the campaign had about 1.5 million active volunteers across the country and 770 offices. The campaign has made some 12 million conversations with voters nationwide since Labor Day, including 1.3 million voters in Florida and 1.5 million in Ohio.
 

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Putting the $106 million that Obama spent in the first 15 days of October in perspective...

OBAMA'S OCT 1-15 SPENDING = $105,599,963.76

That's more than $293,000 an hour.

It's also 49% of EVERYTHING McCain has spent the entire time he has been running for president ($216,769,840).

By contrast, McCain's Oct. 1-15 spending was $9,246,618.70 (or $26,000/hr).

The RNC is the money bags here. Its Oct. 1-15 spending: $45,189,239, less than a third of Obama's spending during the same period.

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli

CHARLESTON, WV – It is "crazy" of John McCain to think he can now attack George Bush's policies after championing them for eight years, Joe Biden said during the first general election appearance for Democrats in West Virginia.

"John McCain is now attacking the Bush budget and Bush fiscal policies, which he voted for I might add," Biden said at an outdoor rally this morning. "Folks, this is as crazy as, you know, Butch Cassidy attacking the Sundance Kid. I mean, that's a team."

Biden rattled off a greatest hits of quotes and statistics linking McCain to the unpopular president, including saying that the country "made great economic progress under the Bush administration.

"I know Halloween is coming, but John McCain as a candidate of change? Whoa!" Biden said. "He needs a costume for that. Folks. The American people aren't going to buy this. They're not going to buy this. They're too smart."

The rally, which attracted a few hundred on a chilly morning downtown, is the strongest evidence yet of the Democrats' confidence in expanding the electoral playing field to previously-strong McCain states, though it is likely to be the only appearance by a principal in the Mountain State. But Sen. Jay Rockefeller, who spoke along with Gov. Joe Manchin and senior Sen. Robert Byrd, said he had commissioned an internal poll.

"I think they always under-sample small states," Rockefeller said of other national pollsters. "So I did my own poll, with a guy I've been using since 1972. And that comports with several other polls which I will not mention which shows Barack Obama is behind by one percent in West Virginia!"

Speaking before a crowd that included members of the United Mine Workers, Biden addressed head-on questions about the Democrats' commitment to coal, which grew after a YouTube video captured Biden saying, "We're not supporting clean coal." The Delaware senator, citing his roots in coal country, tried to turn it back against McCain.

"Let me get something straight, because you watch these McCain ads, you wonder what planet are they coming from," Biden said. "John McCain does not believe that clean coal is part of our future. Don't take my word for it. Take his word for it. Here's what he said, quote, In a perfect world we'd like to transition away from coal entirely.' Now that does not sound like a guy who's attacking us saying we're not for clean coal."

He said the Republican ticket was more interested in rewarding oil companies than supporting clean coal technology. "So John, if you're listening. Stop this malarkey about who's for clean coal. Ladies and gentlemen, make no mistake about it. The oil companies have placed their bets on Sarah Palin and John McCain, not on Barack Obama and Joe Biden. That's why Appalachia can't afford to go with McCain and must go with Obama."

Biden closed his remarks by addressing, as he has all week, the "scurrilous" robocalls by the McCain campaign. Today he pointed to the example of a West Virginia student, Chaylee Cole, who was fired from her job at a call center for refusing to read a McCain script.

"She said, 'Democrat or Republican I wouldn't have done this,'" Biden said. "Chaylee recognized that regardless of your personal politics, attacks like that, attacks like that are out of bounds. … Folks, I guarantee you. Barack Obama has a spine of steel. He can take these attacks for 12 more days. But our country cannot take four more years of this divisive politics. Four more years of Bush and McCain and Karl Rove. We cannot do it."

After leaving West Virginia, Biden will head to southern Virginia for rallies in Danville and Martinsville.

From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger

PITTSBURGH -- In her first policy address since joining the Republican ticket, Sarah Palin called for parents of special needs children to use federal funding to pick the school of their choice, and she suggested that Obama would raise taxes on federal trusts designed to pay for medical and education costs for disabled children.

VIDEO:  Sarah Palin tells a Pennsylvania audience that Barack Obama's tax proposals will have "serious and harmful consequences" on families of special needs children, due to his "ideological commitment to higher taxes."

"In a McCain/Palin administration, we're gonna put the educational choices for special needs children in the right hands, in the hands of the parents and the good responsible caretakers," she said. "Under reforms that I will lead as vice president, the parents and caretakers of children with physical or mental disabilities will be able to send that boy or girl to the school of their choice, public or private."

Palin also called for full federal funding of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, phasing in an additional $15 billion in funding over five years. She said funds could be found by reprioritizing the federal budget and ending earmarks.

Palin wrapped the policy proposal in a personal appeal Friday, speaking of her six month old son, Trig, who has Down Syndrome, and her nephew, Karcher, who is autistic, and placing herself as an advocate for families with children with special needs.

And, she added, those families are concerned about the tax policies of her opponent.

"They fear that Sen. Obama's tax increase will have serious and harmful consequences," she said. "And they're right because the burden that his plan would pose upon these families is just one more example of how many plans can be disrupted and how many futures can be placed at risk and how many people can suffer when the power to tax is misused."

Palin said Obama would raise taxes on federal trusts that families establish to pay for medical and educational costs for children with physical or mental disabilities.

"We'll protect the savings and the earnings of American families and we'll allow more of that investment and the prioritization via our own families to make the difference here," Palin said.

Palin delivered the remarks at an airport hotel ballroom, filled with families with children with special needs. Throughout the speech, several babies could be heard and at least one was running around the aisles and behind the seats. At the beginning of her remarks, Palin said not to worry about the fussy children. "That's the sound of life," she said.

Palin proposes allowing parents to use federal funding from IDEA to choose a school for their special needs child, including private and religious schools. If elected, the administration would direct the Department of Education to augment the rules, allowing federal funds to follow children from one school to another, if the state funding does the same.

McCain senior policy advisor Douglas Holtz-Eakin said the plan would not mandate private or parochial schools to accommodate children with special needs. And, Palin said, the question of school choice for special needs children should not be tied down by the larger voucher question.

"Like John McCain, I'm a believer in providing more school choice for families. And the responsibility for the welfare of children rests ultimately with mothers and fathers, and the power to choose should be theirs as well," she said. "But this larger debate of public policy should not be permitted to hinder the progress of special needs students."

Under IDEA, signed by President Ford in 1975, the federal government was responsible for 40 percent of special needs education. But that mandate has never been met. Palin's proposal would increase the federal commitment by $3 billion a year over five years, for an eventual total of $26 billion.

Palin's proposal also includes improved assistance for families with infants and toddlers with special needs and better services to students with disabilities in high schools and community colleges.

Palin has said at campaign rallies that she expects to focus on families with special needs as vice president, along with energy independence and government reform. Campaign officials suggested Friday that the project was a priority for her, and would therefore be exempted from a government freeze on domestic discretionary spending, which she and McCain have advocated for on the campaign trail.

"We think this is important enough for the next vice president to stand up and talk about," Holtz-Eakin said. "If we think it's important enough to stand up and talk about, we ought to fund it."

From NBC's Mark Murray
The Republican National Committee's independent expenditure arm has announced a new two-minute TV ad that features .... Fred Thompson, who makes the case for McCain and against Obama.
 
[Youtube:FJY1O2MKEOA]

*** UPDATE *** This Thompson ad is an internet-only ad, per the RNC independent expenditure unit

From NBC's Mark Murray
In today's New York Times and the Washington Post, the McCain campaign argued that the GOP nominee's current standing in the national polls is similar to the position Al Gore found himself in eight years ago.

Said chief strategist Steve Schmidt, "The McCain campaign is roughly in the position where Vice President Gore was running against President Bush one week before the election of 2000."

While that might be true in some other polls, our NBC/WSJ survey in mid-October of 2000 had Bush up three points among registered voters (45%-42%) and six points among likely voters (48%-42%). And the NBC/WSJ poll right before the election found Bush ahead by three among likely voters (47%-44%).

But our most recent poll shows Obama up 10 points among registered voters (52%-42%) and 11 points among likely voters (53%-42%). 

From NBC's Mark Murray
The Obama campaign's latest TV ad highlights its online tax calculator to make the case that Obama's tax plan gives middle-class Americans a larger tax cut than McCain's does.

Script:
Not sure who to believe on taxes?
Try this.
Enter your income, marital status, number of kids.
Then click.
A nurse earning sixty grand?  You get a thousand bucks under Obama.  
Under McCain…just one-fifty.
The independent Tax Policy Center says Obama offers middle class tax cuts three times as big as McCain's.
Even leading conservatives say Obama's plan is better for the middle class.
One point five million have tried it.
You should too.
I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** Not over 'til it's over: Down in the polls with just 11 days left, the McCain campaign has used two of the biggest CW table-setters out there -- the New York Times' Adam Nagourney and the Washington Post's Dan Balz -- to argue that this race isn't over just yet. Per Nagourney's piece, "'The McCain campaign is roughly in the position where Vice President Gore was running against President Bush one week before the election of 2000,' said Steve Schmidt, Mr. McCain's chief strategist. 'We have ground to make up, but we believe we can make it up.'" And writes Balz, "McCain's advisers acknowledge that his way back is difficult, but they maintain that there is a way. It requires a combination of smart campaigning, traction for his arguments and what the McCain team hopes will be fears among the electorate at the prospect of a Democrat in the White House with expanded Democratic majorities in Congress." But it's also clear that Pennsylvania has become the campaign's do-or-die state. As one McCain official candidly tells the Politico, "We have a real chance in Pennsylvania. We are in trouble in Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. We have lost Iowa and New Mexico. We are OK in Missouri, Ohio and Florida. Our voter intensity is good and we can match their buy dollar for dollar starting today till the election. It's a long shot but it's worth fighting for." The scary thing for the McCain campaign is that they could win Pennsylvania, but if they lose Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia, they lose in the Electoral College, 270-268. That's just stunning. The McCain campaign could win Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania -- and still lose. This is how Obama's money and organizational advantage has made such a difference: They've rewritten the battleground just as they promised.

VIDEO: Presidential candidates Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama battle in important swing states. NBC's David Gregory reports.

*** $12 million left? But the McCain camp is going to have to flip Pennsylvania -- and hold on to the other Bush states -- with limited funds. The AP got its hands on campaign-finance reports for the first two weeks of October showing that McCain, as of October 15, had $25 million left of his $84.1 million in public funds. "At McCain's spending rate of $1.5 million a day, the Arizona senator likely has only $12 million to spend in the next 11 days before the Nov. 4 election." Yet that amount is bolstered when you add the Republican National Committee's deep wallets. By comparison, the AP notes that Obama spent more than $105 million (!!!) during the first two weeks of October, has $66 million cash on hand, and had raised about $36 million over those two weeks (about half of the pace of his September haul).

*** The blame game: But it's not just diminishing resources and a shrinking map the McCain camp has to contend with. There's also the blame game. This is what creates an unhealthy atmosphere inside the campaign. Folks are looking over their shoulders, and this is where the loyalists get separated from the mercenaries. The true mettle of a political strategist/consultant gets tested now when things look as dark as they do right now for McCain.

*** One last play of the experience card: The McCain campaign is up with a new TV ad that seizing on Joe Biden's remarks from last weekend that the new president will be tested by an international crisis in his first year in office. The ad -- very similar to a Web ad he ran against Mitt Romney right before the New Hampshire primary -- features menacing pictures of terrorists, Chavez, Ahmadinejad, and tanks. "It doesn't have to happen," the narrator says. "Vote McCain." As we've mentioned before, Biden was inartfully referring to the historical fact that new presidents have always been tested by international crises in their first years. Clinton had to deal with Somalia; Bush had to respond to the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Is the McCain campaign guaranteeing to Americans that a crisis won't occur under his watch? That's the implication. As we also noted before, it's one of the final arguments Jimmy Carter made against Reagan in 1980. 

*** The Colin Powell floodgates: Three semi-notable Republicans came out for Obama yesterday, including two former very-moderate Republican governors: Arne Carlson of Minnesota and Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Neither is that surprising to those that know the politics of the two ex-governors, but to a layman's eyes, it's not good news for McCain. What is striking here is that these endorsements underscore how McCain somehow lost his moderate identity -- even among Republicans who seem to know him well. Seriously, these are the type of Republicans the McCain of 2000 would have counted on as his base. How did McCain end up being the nominee that was overly focused on wooing the base? How did he lose this middle-of-the-road mojo? Forget the Bush issue and the economy; McCain's inability to keep his moderate identity might be the biggest mistake bungle of the campaign.

*** Palin's policy speech: This hasn't necessarily been a great week for Palin. First came new polls, including our NBC/WSJ survey, suggesting that she has been a drag on the McCain ticket. And then we discovered the RNC had spent some $150,000 on clothes for the self-described hockey mom and her family. But she ends her week by delivering her first policy speech this morning in Pittsburgh. In the speech, per NBC's Savannah Guthrie and NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger, Palin will highlight her commitment to families with special needs. More from the Chicago Tribune: "She will call for full funding of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, 'boost funding for special-needs children from birth to age 3 and allow parents to choose whether federal money for their child is used in a public, private, religious or secular school without navigating a cumbersome administrative process.' The plan calls for adding $15 billion a year to IDEA, which would fully fund the federal commitment to the 1975 law. That would be phased in over five years, and would be exempted from a federal government spending freeze that McCain and Palin have advocated for on the campaign trail."

*** Another chapter in Troopergate: But the policy speech isn't the only news Palin will make today. NBC's Guthrie reports that Palin will be deposed today by the independent investigator working for the Alaska personnel board in the Troopergate probe. The interview will be under oath, and Todd Palin will be deposed separately. Among the campaign staff and reporters traveling with Palin yesterday was her personal attorney, Thomas Van Flein, who flew from Alaska to meet Palin and traveled on the campaign plane. Coming 11 days before the election, the depositions aren't good timing for the campaign, which had to deal with a spate of Troopergate headlines two weeks ago, when the legislative committee issued its report on the matter and found Palin had abused her power. Less than two weeks to go and the GOP VP nominee is participating in a deposition? Seriously? This isn't bad luck for the McCain campaign, this is a self-inflicted wound. Ouch

*** More polls! New state polls in Indiana, Florida, and Michigan paint a mixed picture for McCain going into the weekend. Mason-Dixon sees him holding on to a five-point lead in Indiana, and one Florida poll shows him only down by three points. But a new Miami Herald poll has Obama's margin widening to seven points in the state. And new Michigan numbers from EPIC/MRA rub salt in McCain's Great Lakes wound. P.S. Who would have believed on May 5th that we'd be talking about Indiana polling eleven days before the general election?

*** Grabbing those coattails: Perhaps no article underscores Obama's strength right now than this Wall Street Journal piece: Down-ballot Dems are looking to grab on to a piece of Obama's perceived coattails. 

*** Fun fact of the day: With McCain's battleground focus on Pennsylvania, it should be noted that no Democrat has won the White House without winning the Keystone State in 60 years. Truman did it in 1948. Dewey Wins! Pennsylvania that is, 51%-47%.

*** On the trail: McCain is in Colorado, where he hits rallies in Denver, Colorado Springs, and Durango. Obama is down in Hawaii. Biden holds rallies in Charleston, WV and Martinsville, VA. Palin begins the day with her policy speech in Pittsburgh and then hits a rally in St. Louis. And Michelle Obama campaigns in Ohio, visiting Columbus and Akron.
 
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 11 days
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 76 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 88 days
 
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