From NBC's Ken Strickland
Between Monday afternoon and today, the financial market "bailout" bill went from a down-to-the-wire failure in the House to an expected passage in the Senate.
 
How did Harry Reid do it?
 
With the economic rescue package facing an uncertain fate in the House, Reid decided to commandeer the process.  The House routinely acts first on large funding bills like the bailout package, but with bipartisan support already solidified in the Senate, Reid jumped to the front of the line. 
 
"There are a few people in the House who'd rather we did this another way," Reid said this morning on the Senate floor.  "But we've tried other ways.  I say to my friends in the House of Representatives, we've got to get this done." 
 
He went on to explain that the nation's founding fathers designed Congress in a way to create friction between the two chambers.  "We get a lot of stuff from the House that we don't like the way they've written it.  But that's who they are," he said.  "And they don't like what we send them."
 
"They [the House] think that they could have done a better job... and maybe they could have.  But this is what we've sent them," Reid said (under the assumption the Senate passes the bill tonight.) No member of Congress is "happy about taking this dramatic and expensive step" to bail out the financial markets, he added, but time is short.
 
The decision to make such a power play was bipartisan.  Reid was joined by Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell in the decision to move first.  Speaking after Reid on the floor, McConnell said, "we believe we've crafted a way to go forward to get us back on track.  This is the only way to get the right kind of solution for the American people."
 
(For you Constitutional scholars, by the way, Reid was able to grab ahold of the bill, a "revenue raiser" usually required to leave the starting gate on the House and not the Senate side of the Hill, by a procedural provision that allows the Senate to take an old House bill that it never passed, scratch out the text and drop in new language--in this case the bailout bill.)

From NBC's Carrie Dann
This morning, we noted the steady stream of independent Democratic groups hitting the Republican ticket with hefty – and sometimes pretty tough – TV ad buys. 

Here's another, this one  from the National Nurses Organizing Committee/California Nurses Association. The ad goes after Palin hard for everything from Troopergate, to the rape kit controversy, to her alleged plan to ban books during her days as Wasilla mayor.  Complete with a cheesy faux love song soundtrack, the spot emphasizes that the seventy-two year old McCain's vice presidential nominee is "one heartbeat away" from the presidency.  It airs this week in battleground states Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Colorado, and Missouri. 
 
We also wrote this morning that there's a comparative dearth of interest-group ads from the GOP side.  The folks over at Vets for Freedom flagged us to their newest offering, which hammers Obama over troop funding and for neglecting his role as the chair of a Foreign Relations subcommittee with jurisdiction over Afghanistan.

 

"Barack Obama skipped 45% of Senate votes but did manage to show up to vote against emergency funding for our troops," says the ad's narrator. "Obama was chairman of the committee overseeing the fight against Al Qaeda in Afghanistan but never held a single hearing."
 
(see First Read's fact check on those hearings here)

The Vets' ad, "Skipped," is a $2.2 million buy for airplay in California and on cable stations nationwide.
 
In addition to the Vets for Freedom spot, here's another new interest-group buy to put in the "R" column. The conservative Judicial Confirmation Network is up with a new battleground market buy that questions – via Obama's associations with Rev. Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers -  the Illinois senator's judgment to choose Supreme Court justices.  (Hat tip: Marc Ambinder) 

The rocky economy is affecting everyone from hedge fund number crunchers to homeowners, but young people looking for jobs and student loans might be one of the hardest-hit groups. 

In his latest blog, NBC's Luke Russert asked around about what recent grads can expect going into the workforce, and he found a forecast that looks grim. "The bad economy is not only affecting young people trying to get into the business world," he writes. "It has and will hit hiring for all types of jobs. Small businesses will suffer because they can't secure credit and so cannot grow. Non-profits and social programs will not have as much funding because there will be less capital available to them and their budgets will be down. If you have a job lined up for after graduation, be thankful. These are dire times for young graduates."

For more, check out the Off Air blog at NBC's iCue site.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
With the Senate now slated to take up a modified economic recovery package tonight, it really does appear that there's been a classic political jam job performed by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid against his fellow Democrats on the other side of the Capitol, Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer.

When it comes right down to it, what Reid has agreed to do in his collaboration with Republican counterpart Mitch McConnell is to get Republican votes in the House at the expense of Democrats. The Senate is passing this bill with the full knowledge and intent of putting tremendous pressure on the House to follow suit.

Twenty-five Blue Dogs - fiscally conservative Democrats primarily from the South - voted "yea" on Monday, compared to 24 who voted "nay." The problem is that the package of tax break extensions that the Senate has attached to the bill is not paid for, or "offset," and deficit spending will result. Paying for tax breaks and other spending is the raison d'être of the Blue Dogs, and they are likely to be upset.

House Dems were not caught completely unaware, and there were conversations between the two sides of Capitol Hill. But by all accounts, House Democratic leaders are not happy today.

The future of this legislation still rests in the House. The Senate is expected to pass this new loaded up version tonight. The House's schedule is unclear. If they do decide to swallow the Senate bill, it would likely be done Thursday late or perhaps Friday.

From NBC's Carrie Dann

The RNC says that the mercury's rising on an Obama meter that has nothing to do with the latest battleground state polls.

 

"Barack Obama's Spend-O-Meter," a new feature on the RNC website, offers a thermometer graphic illustrating the costs of Obama's new policy proposals, which Republicans say could top one trillion dollars.

 

The site estimates the costs of various items in an Obama administration's budget, including his plans for energy, health care, national service, and education. "If Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) could enact all of his campaign proposals, taxpayers would be faced with financing $1.238 trillion in new spending over one White House term," reads the bold print at the top of the lengthy  - and expensive-looking - list.

 

What the site doesn't outline are Obama's various methods of offsetting those costs, which include slashes to wasteful and pork barrel spending and the reversal of the Bush tax cuts. And, although Obama's spending plan is not matched by comparable projected revenue increases, McCain's proposals would also bump up the national debt substantially.  Per FactCheck.org, an analysis by the Tax Policy Center shows that "McCain's proposals would raise the debt by between $5.1 trillion and $7.4 trillion over 10 years. And while McCain has promised to balance the budget by 2013, the Tax Policy Center notes that doing so would require a 25 percent reduction in federal spending. Few economists outside the McCain-Palin campaign think that is a feasible goal. "

From NBC's Mark Murray
Defenders of Wildlife isn't the only Democratic-leaning interest group that's airing a TV ad targeting Palin.

Planned Parenthood tells First Read it will begin running a new ad on Thursday that brings up the fact that Wasilla, while Palin was mayor there, charged rape victims or their insurers for emergency-room rape kits.

The ad -- which Planned Parenthood says will run in the markets of St. Louis (MO), Madison (WI), and DC/Northern Virginia (VA) -- begins with a testimonial from a rape victim. "I just didn't think it would happen to me," she says. "I was drugged and raped." Then an announcer states, "Under Mayor Sarah Palin, women like Gretchen were forced to pay up to $1,200 for the emergency exams used to prosecute their attackers," adding: "In the Senate, John McCain voted against legislation to protect women from these same heartless policies."

[Youtube:Uq6Y-wgivIE]

According to our friends over at Politifact, while Wasilla had such a rape kit policy while Palin was mayor, there is no evidence that she explicitly endorsed it. "Wasilla clearly had the policy. Bloggers have portrayed it as a heartless rule seeking money from rape victims, but they have neglected to mention that the policy seems to have been aimed more at getting money from insurance companies than from victims. We can't find that Palin ever commented on the policy, pro or con. But as mayor, she indirectly endorsed it by approving city budgets that relied on the revenue."

The script:
Gretchen: I just didn't think it would happen to me. I was drugged and raped.
Announcer: Under Mayor Sarah Palin, women like Gretchen were forced to pay up to $1,200 for the emergency exams used to prosecute their attackers.
In the Senate, John McCain voted against legislation to protect women from these same heartless policies.
Gretchen: That is something to me that's unthinkable. It scares me to death.
VO: Planned Parenthood Action Fund is responsible for the content of this advertising and urges you to get the facts.

*** UPDATE *** RNC spokesman Danny Diaz responds to the ad: "Planned Parenthood's ad is a vicious smear against Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin. This ad is patently false and represents the worst kind of politics. What Barack Obama and his most extreme allies fail to understand is that Sen. McCain and Gov. Palin have demonstrated strong leadership on the critical issues confronting the nation, which is what will resonate with the majority of Americans on Election Day."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** A new generation? A brand-new NBC/WSJ/MySpace poll is further evidence that the number of new voters who turn out on Election Day could very well decide the presidential contest. According to the survey, new and lapsed voters (those who didn't vote in 2004) back Obama over McCain by a 2-to-1 margin, 61%-30%. If you take the Bush (62 million) and Kerry (59 million) vote totals from 2004, assume turnout increases by 20 million additional voters (about what it did in 2004), and assume Obama wins these additional voters 2-to-1, then Obama would best McCain nationally by more than three million voters, 72.4 million to 68.7 million. But if turnout increases by just 10 million, then the numbers become Obama 65.7 million, McCain 65.3 million -- a virtual tie. "An Obama victory could very well depend on getting these folks to the polls," says NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R). What's more, we've done the math that a 20% turnout increase in swing states like Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia can flip these red states from red to blue. What has to worry the Republicans is that this is a whole generation of new voters who are leaning Democratic. What does that mean for the GOP's future? It was a whole new generation of young voters who grew up with Reagan who helped bring in a Republican Congress and two terms for George W. Bush. This generation of new voters grew up Clinton, could they be what puts the Democrats on a 20-year power trajectory?

Video: NBC Deputy Political Director Mark Murray gives his first read on a new set of polls in the battleground states of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, which show Obama with a post-debate bump.

*** Obama's challenge: But one potential sign of worry for Obama in this NBC/WSJ/MySpace poll is that these new/lapsed voters aren't as interested in the election as your average voter is. In the poll, 49% of them say they're very interested, but that's compared with 70% of all registered voters who said this in the most recent NBC/WSJ survey. "Obama still has a significant challenge to get [these new voters] to the polls," Newhouse observes. One note about the methodology in the poll: It was conducted partly online and partly by phone, the online portion was a poll of a panel survey. That said, the results are consistent with our normal crosstabs from our NBC/WSJ poll.

*** Time to change the subject? The campaign trail returns to Capitol Hill, as Biden, McCain, and Obama all come back to the Senate to vote tonight on the bailout measure. Isn't it interesting how eager both Obama and McCain are to see this rescue package pass? Sure, the two want it passed because they believe the country is in a financial crisis. But both also want the issue out of the way. Neither seems comfortable dealing with this issue (see last week's debate), and both appear to be tired of it taking up space on the trail. For McCain, it gets in the way of reform, experience, and tax and spending issues that he'd like to see at the forefront. As for Obama, while his campaign has certainly benefited politically from this mess, he would rather be talking about health care, Bush, and overall change.

*** More good polling news for Obama: A new round of Quinnipiac polls for Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- taken before Friday's debate and then after it -- shows Obama leading McCain in all three states and hitting the 50% mark in the post-debate surveys. Before the debate, the polls had Obama up in Florida by six points (49%-43%), up in Ohio by seven (49%-42%), and up in Pennsylvania by six (49%-43%). And Obama increased his lead slightly after the debate: He's up eight in Florida (51%-43%), eight in Ohio (50%-42%), and 15 in Pennsylvania (54%-39%). A couple of points to make here: 1) This is more evidence that Obama appears to have won Friday's debate perception-wise, despite many analysts declaring it a draw; and 2) This poll, in addition to a new Franklin & Marshall poll that has Obama up seven in the Keystone State, compels us to move Pennsylvania back to Lean Obama in our next battleground map.

*** In need of a new game-changer: Indeed, as a slew of new state and national polls are suggesting, McCain is now behind. It's no longer fair to call this a dead-even race; it's moving in Obama's direction. The question is: How does McCain stop this momentum? The fastest way is with the upcoming VP debate -- and it's not about Palin, it's about Biden. Palin's No. 1 job may be to attempt to bait Biden into a gaffe. They need Biden to step in it and become the weekend story in some form. It may be too big of a slog to try and resuscitate Palin at this VP debate. But if the campaign can make Biden seem like a net-negative for Obama, then maybe they blunt the Palin issues. It's not going to be easy. Biden has been one of the more disciplined debaters during the primary season, and it's one of the under-remembered aspects of his unsuccessful candidacy. How many times in this race, by the way, have we seen the worm turn just as it seems one candidate is running away with things?

*** 34 days later: Today, we're just 34 days out until Election Day. And given that mark, NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse reminds First Read to consider everything that has happened in the preceding 34 days: Obama accepted the Democratic nomination at Invesco; McCain made Palin his running mate; Hurricanes Gustav and Ike hit the Gulf Coast; the US unemployment rate hit its highest mark in seven years; Lehman Brothers went bankrupt and Merrill Lynch was bought out; Bush called for a $700 billion bailout package; Ted Stevens became the first sitting US senator to go on trial since 1981; McCain and Obama debated; and the House defeated the bailout package. "If the next 34 is like the last 34, we're in for quite a ride," Newhouse says.

*** Bubba watch: For the first time today, Bill Clinton hits the campaign trail for Obama. He'll be in the battleground of Florida, holding rallies in Orlando and Fort Pierce. Of course, given his recent tepid praise of Obama and effusive comments about McCain, Clinton's events today will receive a bit more scrutiny. And they come just as the McCain campaign unveiled a new TV ad yesterday that uses a quote from Clinton that appears to blame Democrats (in part) for the current economic mess.

*** More wolf ads: Without much fanfare and despite Obama's earlier appeal for them to stay out of the presidential race, Democratic interest groups have been cranking up their TV activity -- and they're targeting Palin. One of the least talked about, yet most provocative, ads this cycle has been the Defenders of Wildlife spot that blasts Palin for supporting aerial hunting of wolves. The ad had been running in the battlegrounds of Florida, Michigan, and Ohio, and now the AP reports that Defenders of Wildlife will extend that buy to Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, and even St. Louis in time for Thursday's VP debate. Query: Where are the Republican ads? We've seen some on Fox News and other cable outlets, but nothing for swing voters.

*** On the trail: McCain stumps in Kansas City, MO before heading to a fundraiser in Los Angeles. Obama campaigns in La Crosse, WI. And Michelle Obama hits events in Boulder, CO and Kansas City, MO.
 
Countdown to the vice presidential debate: 1 day
Countdown to the second presidential debate 6 days
Countdown to the third presidential debate: 14 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 34 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 111 days
 
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The New York Times: "Senate leaders scheduled a Wednesday vote on a $700 billion financial bailout package after accepting tax breaks and a higher limit for insured bank deposits in a bid to win House approval and send legislation to President Bush by the end of the week."

NBC's Ken Strickland reports that the Senate will vote on the bailout bill this evening. The exact time of the vote is unclear, but it will most likely be after 7:00 pm ET. The vote of the bailout bill will be preceded by a series of other votes, including one on the India/US nuclear deal.  

The bill, Strick adds, will be the same bill that failed in the House Monday, plus some "sweeteners" to attract more votes from those who were planning to vote against it. Chief among them on the financial front will be a provision that raises the FDIC insurance cap from $100,000 to $250,000. Other sweeteners include a large "tax extenders" package that extends various tax breaks for various entities, especially for business and for the energy industry.

A new Washington Post/ABC poll: "Negativity about the country's financial prospects continues to lift Obama, but he now has a narrower advantage over McCain in Post-ABC polling than he did last week. Overall, the senator from Illinois holds a slim lead in the new national poll, with likely voters dividing 50 percent for Obama and 46 percent for McCain. In the last poll, Obama led by a nine-point margin. At that time, McCain advisers sharply criticized the results as being out of step with other surveys. Still, the new poll marks only the second time either of the candidates has reached 50 percent. Other national polls also indicate that Obama opened up a lead as the nation's economic situation deteriorated over the past two weeks."

The Los Angeles Times looks at how some are questioning Pelosi's tactics in managing the bailout bill. "The bill's narrow defeat was in part a tribute to political forces far beyond Pelosi's control: The deep-seated mistrust between the parties has made it increasingly difficult for the House to address major national problems that cry out for bipartisan solutions. Her GOP counterpart, Rep. John A. Boehner (R-Ohio), is considered a weak minority leader, and President Bush's leverage within the party has all but vanished. Still, Pelosi's handling of the issue provided a window onto her leadership style -- revealing the limits of her ability to win the trust of Republicans, to lean on her own rank and file, and to dispel her reputation as a polarizing figure."

The New York Times examines why majorities of the Congressional Black Caucus and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus voted against the bailout. "Mr. Becerra, Ms. Pelosi's assistant speaker, defended her Tuesday, saying that while she had never pressured him, she had done all she could to gain support for the measure. He attributed its failure to a refusal by President Bush and House Republicans to include protections for people who had gone bankrupt or were losing their homes. Representative Jesse L. Jackson Jr. of Chicago put it more starkly. 'We need to bail out the country, not the country club," Mr. Jackson said, speaking by phone Tuesday from Washington as he prepared to participate in a meeting intended to revive some version of the legislation."

Two years ago, expressing support for Ms. Pelosi's nomination as speaker, Mr. Jackson invoked Rosa Parks, Harriet Tubman and Jesus. But on Tuesday he said that despite the turmoil in the markets, he could not have sold the bill to his constituents. 'I would hope greater homeowner protections would not be seen as unreasonable,' he said, 'since the foundation of the economy is homeownership, where the crisis began.'"

In twin articles, the New York Times looks at Biden's and Palin's past debate performances. For Biden: "A review of Mr. Biden's debate performances shows him to be deeply knowledgeable across a range of topics, reflecting his nearly four decades in Washington, where he is chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee… One danger for Mr. Biden on Thursday is that his habit of speaking authoritatively, of saying he possesses the truth, will come across as overbearing or condescending, particularly toward someone like Ms. Palin, who lacks his credentials. To try to guard against sounding sexist, he is sparring in practice sessions with Gov. Jennifer M. Granholm of Michigan, who is playing the role of Ms. Palin."

For Palin: "Her debating style was rarely confrontational, and she appeared confident. In contrast to today, when she seems unversed on several important issues, she demonstrated fluency on certain subjects, particularly oil and gas development. But just as she does now, Ms. Palin often spoke in generalities and showed scant aptitude for developing arguments beyond a talking point or two. Her sentences were distinguished by their repetition of words, by the use of the phrase 'here in Alaska' and for gaps. On paper, her sentences would have been difficult to diagram."

The LA Times also talks to former rivals about Palin's debate skills -- which appear to be better than the expectations right now are indicating.

"Trudy Mason, a Democratic activist from New York, said his [Biden's] warmth nicely balances Obama's cooler demeanor. 'He speaks from the kishkas,' she said, using the Yiddish word for 'gut.' But speaking from the kishkas can get a politician into trouble, and as Biden prepares to debate Sarah Palin tomorrow, some Democrats are worried. On the trail last week, the downside was on full display, as Biden mangled historical facts and twice contradicted his own campaign. The gaffes piled up at such a rate that Republicans dedicated a website to tracking them. His emotional reactions sometimes appear to drive him to fudge answers."

"In the Marist survey, 45 percent gave Biden, Delaware's Democratic senator, the edge, while 36 percent said Palin, Alaska's GOP governor, will shine. By a better than 2-to-1 ratio, voters believe Biden will have a better understanding of the issues than Palin. But 65 percent think Palin will come across as more appealing, compared to 23 percent for Biden."

The Right looks to pre-but a poor Palin debate performance by calling Gwen Ifill biased.

"The city of Springfield plans to bill Barack Obama's presidential campaign about $50,000 to cover expenses related to the August rally he held to introduce Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as his running mate, officials said Tuesday," the AP writes. "The Democratic Illinois senator's campaign did not get a bill when Obama officially launched his bid for the presidency during a February 2007 rally in Springfield, the state capital."

"If John McCain is elected and goes on to win a second term, there's as much as a one-in-four chance America could see its first woman president -- Sarah Palin," the AP reports. "It's actuarial math. The odds highly favor either McCain or Barack Obama completing a first term in good health. After that, McCain's odds are still fairly solid, but his chances of dying or being in poor health go up faster than Obama's, mainly because of his age. An Atlanta actuarial company specializing in individualized estimates of life and health expectancy has run the numbers for McCain, 72, and Obama, 47."

The conservative Boston Herald endorsed … McCain. It lauds McCain's experience and call to reduce spending and earmarks. It also writes that the role of commander in chief is not a place for "on the job training." "There is no room for a naif in the Oval Office," it says of Obama. 

That gruesome, anti-Palin Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund ad is being expanded, the group says. "Starting this week, what had been limited to certain markets in Florida, Michigan and Ohio will now air in Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin. It also will air in Missouri in time for Thursday's vice presidential debate in St. Louis." What about the facts? "The loaded language aside, the facts of the ad are accurate, although it leaves out the motivation behind the state policy. Palin supports the aerial hunting of wolves as part of a state-sponsored predator-control program intended to increase the number of moose and caribou in several areas of Alaska. Rural residents, who rely on hunting to survive, had complained there wasn't enough game to hunt and eat."

More: "Last year, Palin's office announced the state would offer cash to kill wolves. Incentives included offering volunteer pilots and aerial gunner teams $150 for turning in the forelegs of freshly killed wolves. The state said the legs could help biologists determine a wolf's age, while the money helped hunters and aerial teams pay for gas and expenses. A Superior Court judge later blocked the payments after conservation groups argued the money amounted to an illegal bounty."

"Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who touts her state's proximity to Russia as part of her foreign policy experience, has not met with Russian leaders or delegations, negotiated any Russian issues or visited the country, according to an Associated Press review of records from the governor's office. The review showed that the Republican vice presidential candidate has negotiated with only one country, Canada, and until last week had met with the leader of only one other, tiny Iceland."

How about when Putin rears his head? "The Alaska governor has no command authority over the guardians of U.S. airspace despite her recent suggestion otherwise. 'She doesn't have any role in that process,' Air Force Maj. Allen Herritage, spokesman for the Alaska North American Aerospace Defense Command, told the Daily News. .. Moscow's bombers have skirted Alaskan airspace 20 times, though they have not violated it, during Palin's governorship, officials said. When F-15 and F-22 interceptors scrambled from Elmendorf Air Force Base in Anchorage in response, John McCain's running mate was not speed-dialed with the news."

Palin as Joe Six-pack? "Palin said if she and John McCain win, they will 'put government back on the side of the people of Joe Six-pack like me.'" But, "Palin makes $125,000 yearly as governor, and her husband makes about $90,000 a year combined from his commercial fishing business and his part-time job as a production operator on the North Slope. Palin said her husband's 401(k) retirement account lost probably $20,000 in the last week as the market dropped. According to the most recent state financial disclosure forms, filed March 10, 2008, the Palins had about $164,699 in a private investment account and $198,102 in a separate retirement account."

The Boston Globe's editorial page wants one question answered by Palin at tomorrow's debate: "[W]hy, during her tenure as mayor of Wasilla, the town started charging rape victims or their insurers for hospital emergency-room rape kits and examinations. … [T]he policy on rape kits may have had less to do with easing the burden on taxpayers and more to do with Palin's position on abortion. She has said she opposes it even in cases of rape or incest."

And: "Sarah Palin, the socially conservative GOP veep nominee, is not opposed to gay people. Heck, some of her best friends are gay. 'I am not going to judge Americans and the decisions that they make in their adult personal relationships,' Palin told CBS' Katie Couric Tuesday night when asked about churches, including Palin's, that promote conferences to convert gays into heterosexuals through prayer. 'I have one of my absolute best friends for the last 30 years who happens to be gay and I love her dearly,' Palin said, without mentioning names. 'And she is not my gay friend, she is one of my best friends who happens to have made a choice that isn't a choice that I have made.'"

COLORADO: That long Colorado ballot may not shave off any controversial ballot initiatives as compromisers between business and labor interests had hoped. "Business leaders said Tuesday afternoon that they were unable to strike a deal with organized labor to remove four contentious initiatives from the November ballot, despite weeks of negotiations."
 
FLORIDA: Florida's governor weighed in on a controversial new measure that could be problematic for Florida's most recently registered voters. "Gov. Charlie Crist has a message for any new voter worried about running afoul of Florida's new and controversial ''no-match'' law: Open your mail. Under the new law, voters who registered after Sept. 8 -- but whose names don't match the state's Social Security or driver's license databases -- are notified by mail to fix the problem or face casting a provisional ballot on Election Day."  
 
The St. Pete Times looks at the effect of black turnout on downballot races, even in states where McCain will win by a landslide. 
 
INDIANA: The lead of today's politics story in the Evansville Courier & Press: "Indiana officially became a battleground state in the contest for the presidency on Tuesday, with the Republican National Committee airing a television commercial in the state on behalf of John McCain, and Barack Obama's supporters calling local news conferences to dispute it."
 
It's the first time a GOP presidential campaign has gone up on Indiana airwaves in twelve years.  The Republican Party's executive director in the state counts "six negative ads" being run by Democrats there. "For those six very negative ads to continue to run in a vacuum, we certainly don't want to risk what kind of consequences might come from that," he says. 
 
MICHIGAN: The Washington Times describes a McCain "slide" in the Great Lakes state. 
 
99 problems, but turnout ain't one? Hip-hop super-icon Jay-Z will headline an Obama-sponsored voter registration event in Detroit Saturday night.
 
OHIO: The Wall Street Journal offers this nugget about the ongoing early voting in the Buckeye State. "Advocates for the homeless in Ohio took advantage of the early-voting process to take shelter residents to polls. Many residents lack a driver's license or other identification that would be required on Election Day, but early voting requires voters to list only their state ID number or the last four digits of their Social Security number."
 
The Columbus Dispatch offers a blunt assessment of how much Obama's race could potentially hurt him in Ohio's Appalachian regions.

PENNSYLVANIA: Per the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review: Another Pennsylvania poll sees a seven-point advantage for Obama. "Obama maintains a 7-point lead, 45 percent to 38 percent -- about the same advantage he held in August, according to a Franklin & Marshall Poll conducted between Sept. 23 and Sunday for the Tribune-Review, WTAE-TV and other news outlets." 
 
WISCONSIN: The AP looks at eight swing counties in Western Wisconsin.

No one can say Mike Bloomberg doesn't like a challenge. Not only is he seeking to overturn the city's term limits law, he's also indicating he wants to lead New York City at a time when the unemployment rate (due to Wall Street's downturn) is going to skyrocket. The city's coming problems are probably what give Bloomberg a real chance to pull this off.