The New York Times writes about McCain's advertising blitz in key battleground state markets. "Unable to match the Obama juggernaut, Mr. McCain is making a last stand in towns he needs to win, like this one [Norfolk, VA], where he and the Republican National Committee have combined resources to advertise as heavily as Mr. Obama, who has not needed similar help from his party. The situation is similar in Cincinnati; Harrisburg, Pa.; and Richmond, Va., which are among the places where Mr. McCain has tried to match Mr. Obama."

"Analysts say he has little choice. 'If you're the McCain campaign, there are two columns right now in your thinking: places you have to win and places you need to win,' said Evan Tracey, the chief operative officer of CMAG, a company that monitors political advertising. Translating that into laymen's terms, Mr. Tracey said, 'You don't have to eat, but you need to breathe.'"

Salon's Shapiro pens a piece that is sure to become CW on McCain very soon. The thesis: The McCain of 2000 would be in much better shape in this election than this McCain.

The health-care issue continues to be one that the McCain campaign is getting clobbered on. Yesterday, the campaign found itself on the defensive ... AGAIN.

The AP lists the Republicans questioning McCain, campaign decisions, or straying off message, including Palin, former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, former South Dakota Sen. Larry Pressler, Rep. Paul Ryan (WI), Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl, Scott McClellan and former Reagan Solicitor General Charles Fried (who asked "that his name be removed from the several campaign-related committees on which he serves. Fried said chief among the reasons 'is the choice of Sarah Palin at a time of deep national crisis.'")

The AP curtain-raises tonight's Obama infomercial, which will run on several networks beginning at 8:00 pm ET. "The ad is expected to be a video montage of typical people talking about the challenges they face, with Obama explaining how he can help. A campaign adviser said the taped ad will feature a live cut-in to Obama, who is scheduled to be at a rally in Florida at the time." Obama also sits down with ABC's Charlie Gibson, Comedy Central's Jon Stewart, appears at a rally with Bill Clinton, then tomorrow, is interviewed by NBC's Brian Williams and MSNBC's Rachel Maddow.

The New York Times gets a sneak peak. Obama "will use his prime-time half-hour infomercial … to make what is effectively a closing argument to a national audience of millions. At times he will speak directly into the camera about his 20-month campaign, at others he will highlight everyday voters, their everyday troubles, and his plans to address them. Mr. Obama's campaign agreed to provide The New York Times with a minute-long trailer for the 30-minute program, which is to run on four broadcast networks at 8 p.m. It will be the first time in 16 years that a presidential candidate has bought network time, in prime time, for a prolonged campaign commercial."

And as far as the commercial delaying the World Series, as McCain and the GOP have contended: "Fox executives have said that they, and not the Obama campaign, had initially asked Major League Baseball to move the start of Wednesday's game to 8:35 p.m. from 8:20, to make way for his infomercial. But as it turns out, such a delay was not necessary anyway; none of the World Series games has started before 8:30, and two started after 8:35."

Politico wonders if the infomercial is overkill. "Republican political strategist Alex Castellanos says that it might. But even his advice is to go for it. 'It's like football,' says Castellanos. 'People may complain that a team is running up the score, but that team is still the one that wins.' The Obama campaign scoffs at the idea that the infomercial is more luxury than necessity. This is, after all, a campaign scarred by its stunningly lopsided loss in the New Hampshire primary after polls had shown double-digit leads."

One thing's for sure, Obama's enormous small-donor fundraising apparatus is going to create new reforms. It looks like the campaign took some risks in what credit cards they accepted. The Washington Post: "Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign is allowing donors to use largely untraceable prepaid credit cards that could potentially be used to evade limits on how much an individual is legally allowed to give or to mask a contributor's identity, campaign officials confirmed. Faced with a huge influx of donations over the Internet, the campaign has also chosen not to use basic security measures to prevent potentially illegal or anonymous contributions from flowing into its accounts, aides acknowledged. Instead, the campaign is scrutinizing its books for improper donations after the money has been deposited."

"The Obama organization said its extensive review has ensured that the campaign has refunded any improper contributions, and noted that Federal Election Commission rules do not require front-end screening of donations."

Meanwhile, here's the Los Angeles Times on the McCain camp's request to release "videotape it obtained of a 2003 banquet, where then-state Sen. Barack Obama spoke of his friendship with Rashid Khalidi, a leading Palestinian scholar and activist." More: "The Times first reported on the videotape in an April 2008 story about Obama's ties with Palestinians and Jews as he navigated the politics of Chicago. The report included a detailed description of the tape, but the newspaper did not make the video public."

"The Times on Tuesday issued a statement about its decision not to post the tape. 'The Los Angeles Times did not publish the videotape because it was provided to us by a confidential source who did so on the condition that we not release it,' said the newspaper's editor, Russ Stanton. 'The Times keeps its promises to sources.' Jamie Gold, the newspaper's readers' representative, said in a statement: 'More than six months ago the Los Angeles Times published a detailed account of the events shown on the videotape. The Times is not suppressing anything. Just the opposite -- the L.A. Times brought the matter to light.'"

"The original article said that Obama's friendships with Palestinian Americans in Chicago and his presence at Palestinian community events had led some to think he was sympathetic to the Palestinian viewpoint on Middle East politics. Obama publicly expresses a pro-Israel viewpoint that pleases many Jewish leaders." 
 
Check out the fact that Obama is sneaking in one more stop in Iowa on Friday after he does Florida and Missouri.

The New York Times writes that, win or lose on Tuesday, many conservative see Palin as the future of the GOP. "Matthew Dowd, a former Bush strategist, said Ms. Palin's challenge was to show substance. 'She's an attractive woman who can give a great speech, but the American public doesn't view her much beyond that,' Mr. Dowd said. 'She's vastly unpopular among moderate and independent voters, and while she could be in a position to be popular among an increasingly smaller Republican Party, she's got to figure out a way to extend that and figure out a way to strengthen her weaknesses."

Perhaps this is why Palin gives a policy speech on energy today in Toledo, OH.

Speaking of the future of the GOP, Politico's Martin has the scoop on a secret meeting already set by some conservatives just a few days after the election.

Palin will return to Anchorage on Monday evening, so she can vote in Wasilla on Tuesday before heading back to the Lower 48 to join McCain in Phoenix, NBC's Savannah Guthrie reports. "Gov. Palin is very excited to return home to vote," spokeswoman Meghan Stapleton said. "Governor Palin launched her public service career from Wasilla and she will return there to cast her vote."

It's official: The CW is moving toward assuming that John McCain is now a drag on the GOP. But is it really McCain or Bush? It's not like Senate Dem candidates are running against McCain, right?

The Alaska GOP is still pushing Ted Stevens' re-election bid.

The RNC tapped a line of credit to help troubled senate incumbents. Some money went directly to the NRSC, and some went directly to the campaigns. "Of the endangered Republican seats, Duncan said the RNC was especially watching contests Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon and North Carolina."

And the AP looks at possible successors for whoever wins the White House. For Obama, "One strong contender is Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., who is close to Obama and would inherit Obama's position as the only black member of the Senate. Two other black candidates are state Senate President Emil Jones and Secretary of State Jesse White" -- though both are in their 70s. "Other state officials mentioned as candidates are Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Comptroller Dan Hynes. Both are possible challengers to Blagojevich in the 2010 gubernatorial primary, so the governor could narrow the field of rivals by sending one off to Washington. Rep. Jan Schakowsky also expressed interest this year in replacing Obama."
 
In Arizona, "Rep. John Shadegg, a conservative facing a tough re-election campaign this year, is seen as a leading Republican candidate if the Senate seat opens up in 2010. In the meantime, Napolitano might be more prone to pick a moderate to fill the seat for the next two years." Napolitano might run herself in 2010. "Moderate Republicans mentioned as possible Napolitano choices include former Rep. Jim Kolbe, former state Attorney General Grant Woods, Arizona Corporation Commissioner member Kris Mayes and state Rep. Chris Herstam."
 
In Delaware, "Biden's eldest son, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, has been mentioned as a possible successor, but that may not happen now that he is being deployed to Iraq with his National Guard unit. Some Delaware Democrats are pushing for Minner to appoint Lt. Gov. John Carney, who last month lost the Democratic gubernatorial primary to state treasurer Jack Markell. Carney has said he would be interested in the Senate job if Biden becomes vice president, but said he has not been approached by Biden or Minner."

From NBC's Savannah Guthrie
Palin will cast her vote in the presidential election from her hometown of Wasilla before flying to Phoenix to join McCain for Election Night, according to a campaign official.

"Gov. Palin will return to Anchorage next Monday evening," McCain-Palin spokeswoman Meghan Stapleton said. "She will vote Tuesday morning in Wasilla before departing for Phoenix to join Sen. McCain for election night. ... Gov. Palin is very excited to return home to vote. Gov. Palin launched her public service career from Wasilla, and she will return there to cast her vote."

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones

CHESTER, Pa. -- A jean-clad Obama, speaking on a rainy, windy day outside Philadelphia, told the crowd McCain was "riding shotgun" with President Bush when it came to economic policies that have hurt working people.

The roughly 27-minute remarks, delivered to an estimated crowd of 9,000 people on a college campus in Delaware County, who cheered as they huddled under umbrellas, was largely a repeat of the speeches the senator gave yesterday in Canton, Ohio, and Pittsburgh, part of what his campaign has called his "closing argument." In it he continued to portray his rival as someone who is out of touch with middle class concerns and whose tax proposals would favor big companies and the wealthy.

"John McCain's ridden shotgun as George Bush has driven our economy toward a cliff, and now he wants to take the wheel and step on the gas," he said. "When it comes to the issue of taxes, saying that John McCain is running for a third Bush term isn't being fair to George Bush. He's proposing $300 billion in new tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and the biggest corporations. That's something not even George Bush proposed."

He said even Bush had not proposed giving $700,000 in additional tax cuts to the average Fortune 500 CEO and he argued that only McCain had a plan that could eventually raise taxes on middle class families, citing the Republican's plan to tax the health care benefits that companies provide.

The McCain campaign's response to the speech sought to link Obama to congressional Democrats. One thing Bush and Congress have in common is low approval ratings and McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds wrote that Obama had not articulated any differences with Democrats in Congress.

"When Barack Obama's running mate cannot distinguish a single difference between their agenda and the priorities of the Democrats who have controlled Congress for two years -- that's not change, that's tax increases, defense cuts, and surrender on all fronts," Bounds wrote. "If voters want to fix Washington, they'll reject Barack Obama's rubber-stamped agenda for the most unpopular, big-spending Congress in American history."

Wall Street and Rain
Obama, who has been using populist language on the stump in recent weeks to cast himself as a champion for middle and working class Americans, also slammed Wall Street executives after reports that they stand to collect billions in bonuses this year despite the financial crisis.

"Despite the fact that businesses and families can't get credit and home values are failing- are falling and pensions are disappearing that ages are lower now than they've been in a decade," he said. "Wall Street bank executives are set to walk away with billions more in bonuses at the end of this year. Now, they might call that a bonus on Wall Street, but here in Pennsylvania, we call that an outrage -- and they shouldn't be allowed to get away with it."

When faced with bad weather, the Illinois senator often incorporates the rain or the cold into his speech and he did so several times today, remarking at the beginning that crowd had shown dedication by showing up in the cold and the rain.

"This is an unbelievable crowd for this kind of weather," he said. "Thank you so much. And I want you all to know that if we are, if we see this kind of dedication on Election Day there is no way we're not gonna bring change to America."

He said there was too much at stake to slow down or let up "whether it's rain or sleet or snow" and he closed by returning to the themes of hope and unity that shaped his campaign in the early days of the race, arguing that by coming together the country could emerge from the current economic crisis stronger than before.

"We've faced bad weather before," he said in closing. "We've faced clouds in the sky before, you know, but one of the things about the American people is that it's precisely when things are hard that we rise up. It's precisely during those times where it looks like we're giving up hope that we stand together. It's about rejecting fear and division for unity of purpose."

The stop in a county John Kerry won with 57 percent of the vote in 200, is likely to be the last stop the candidate makes in a blue state. Polls have shown him with a solid lead in Pennsylvania.

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
OCALA, Fla. -- With one week until Election Day, Biden is picking up the pace. Not only is he fitting more public events onto his schedule each day, but his stump speech has been cut in half, now ranging just over 15 minutes long.

That was the case again this morning at the Dancing Horses Farm, where Biden again breezed through his remarks on a day that was chilly by Florida standards.

"It's great to be here with you all, and in a county that's produced a Triple Crown winner, Affirmed," Biden said. "I think Florida is going to produce another winner here again, because how you go goes the nation in all probability."

Appearing in Marion County, Biden acknowledged that "an awful lot of folks in this area put their faith in George Bush." In 2004, the president carried the county by double digits. "But just as many of those people who put their faith in the Bush policies know that those policies have not worked for Ocala. And we cannot afford four more years of the same policies they took a shot on four years ago, ladies and gentlemen," he said.

Biden's quick speech included only a brief summary of the Obama-Biden tax plan, one McCain questioned today because of comments made in a local interview yesterday.

"Barack Obama and I recognize that when the American middle class does well, the rich do just fine and the poor do better," Biden said. "We want to rebuild the middle class. And here's what we'll do: cut taxes for working people. Cut taxes for small businesses. Encourage and lay out a clear plan to end our dependence on foreign oil."

He did not specify who would be considered part of the middle class, a designation that McCain was questioning. Still, he argued that the Republicans' plans were not the answer.

"I know we're not running against George W. Bush, But we are in fact running against the very Bush economic policies that John McCain wants to continue, and is promising to continue," he said. "Policies that call for more taxes for companies that send jobs overseas, while providing no relief for a hundred million middle class families. Policies that call for taxing your heath care benefits as if they're income. Policies that call for another four billion dollars in tax cuts for the Exxon Mobils in the world, as if they need it."

Biden also again defended Obama against Republican attacks, though he did not compare them as he did yesterday to those levied against some of the great presidents.

"[In] the turbulent economy that we've been in, Barack Obama has demonstrated a steady hand. In a dangerous world, Barack Obama has demonstrated sound judgment. To a nation desperate for a better day, he offers new ideas, new leadership and real hope," Biden said of his running mate.

Biden continues his Florida bus tour later today with an evening rally in Melbourne.

From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger and NBC's Savannah Guthrie
Palin will deliver a policy speech tomorrow morning in Toledo on "the need for energy security" and will link the issue to curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions, according to a campaign adviser.

This news comes after the Republican vice presidential candidate told Sallai Meridor, Israel's ambassador to the United States, that she was committed to ending Iran's nuclear ambitions through energy policy and international relations as vice president, aides said.

Palin has not addressed international affairs at length on the campaign trail -- beyond supporting American efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. She met with several foreign leaders during the United Nations General Assembly last month.

In contrast, Palin has made energy independence one of her signature issues, and has said she would focus on it as vice president. Palin, like McCain, has suggested the United States imports oil from "countries that don't like us" and favors a transition to more domestic sources of energy. Doing so would help build pressure on Iran to end its nuclear program, aides said.

From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
The McCain campaign is jumping all over Biden's interview yesterday with a Scranton TV affiliate, in which Biden said that people making under $150,000 per year would get a tax cut under Obama's tax plan.

McCain even mentioned it during his speech today in Pennsylvania, noting all the different numbers Obama and his campaign are citing on the tax issue. "Sen. Obama has made a lot of promises," the Arizona senator said in remarks his campaign passed around to reporters. "First, he said people making less than 250,000 dollars would benefit from his plan. Then this weekend, he announced in an ad that if you're a family making less than 200,000 dollars you'll benefit. But yesterday, right here in Pennsylvania, Sen, Biden said tax relief should only go to 'middle class people -- people making under 150,000 dollars a year.' It's interesting how their definition of rich has a way of creeping down. At this rate, it won't be long before Senator Obama is right back to his vote that Americans making just 42,000 dollars a year should get a tax increase. We can't let that happen."

Video: John McCain slams Barack Obama's plans to "spread the wealth," raise taxes and limit opportunities rather than create new wealth for Americans, and make everyone successful.

Biden aides say his comments were actually consistent with Obama's tax plan -- people under $150,000 get a cut, and people making up to $250,000 stay the same.

Indeed, here's what Obama said at the Saddleback forum in August: "What I can say is under the approach I'm taking, if you make $150,000 or less, you will see a tax cut. If you're making $250,000 a year or more, you're going to see a modest increase." ***CLARIFICATION *** The Obama campaign tells First Read that this is how Obama's plan breaks down: People making less than $250,000 will not see their taxes increase, and people making less than $200,000 will receive some type of tax cut. And all of this is essentially reflected in the Tax Policy Center stats below.

*** UPDATE *** An Obama aide points out to First Read that the $150,000 figure Biden was citing was simply an example of what someone making that amount would get under Obama's tax plan. Indeed, Biden's $150,000 remark came after he referred to someone making $1.4 million.

Per the Tax Policy Center, here is how Obama's tax plan breaks down for individuals:
$0-$18,891 = $567 tax cut
$18,982-$37,595 = $892 tax cut
$37,596-$66,354 = $1,118 tax cut
$66,355-$111,645 = $1,264 tax cut
$111,646-$160,972 = $2,135 tax cut
$160,973-$226,918 = $2,796 tax cut
$226,919-$603,402 = $121 tax increase
$603,403-$2.87 million = $93,709 tax increase
$2.87 million-plus = $542,882 tax increase

From NBC's Pete Williams and Mark Murray
Palin today called on the senior Republican in her state to quit.

In an interview with CNBC's Maria Bartiromo, Palin said that Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens should step down in light of his conviction yesterday on federal charges. That is a change from yesterday, when Palin didn't exactly call for him to resign. "I'm confident that Sen. Stevens ... will do the right thing for the state of Alaska," she said.

Video: Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin chastises Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens following his conviction on seven counts of corruption.

McCain, also interviewed by Bartiromo, said he agreed that Stevens should resign. And his campaign put out a statement from McCain at about the same time the interview was going on, calling for Stevens to leave the Senate. "It is clear that Sen. Stevens has broken his trust with the people and that he should now step down," the statement read. "I hope that my colleagues in the Senate will be spurred by these events to redouble their efforts to end this kind of corruption once and for all."

By the way, in an interview this morning with MSNBC's David Shuster, McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds said that McCain and Palin wouldn't vote for Stevens -- if they were Alaska voters. "They've been quite clear in their contempt for his behavior," Bounds said. "I don't expect they would cast their ballot for Ted Stevens if they were Alaska voters."

But Palin is an Alaska voter. Does that mean she won't be voting for Stevens and will instead vote for Stevens' Democratic challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich?

Bounds, in an email response to First Read, said: "She called for him to step down in an interview this morning. I think I'm safe."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** Another punch in the gut: For the GOP, yesterday must have felt like déjà vu all over again. The guilty verdict in Sen. Ted Stevens' trial -- just one week before Election Day -- was yet another stomach-punch to the GOP, and it was reminiscent of how things went for the GOP in late 2006, when everything seemed to go wrong. The first sitting senator in nearly 30 years to be convicted just so happens to be a Republican. And with everything else seeming to go wrong for the party right now, the Stevens news is like kicking a wounded dog; it just further tarnishes the GOP brand.

Video:  U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, is vowing to appeal his conviction on all counts for failing to report valuable gifts and favors. NBC's Pete Williams reports.

By the way, it's worth pointing out the two very different statements that Alaska's other top Republican politicians -- Sarah Palin and Sen. Lisa Murkowski -- released yesterday regarding the Stevens verdict. Palin called on Stevens "to do the right thing," saying: "The verdict shines a light though on the corrupting influence of the big oil service company up there in Alaska that was allowed to control too much of our state. And that control was part of the culture of corruption that I was elected to fight." On the other hand, Murkowski stood by Stevens. "Sen. Stevens has announced that he will appeal the verdict. I look forward to having justice served. Ted has asked for Alaskans and his Senate colleagues to stand with him as he pursues his legal rights. He stood with Alaskans for 40 years, and I plan to continue to stand with him." Just curious: Has Palin voted? If not, who will she vote for in the Senate race? And is she supporting Don Young in the House race?

*** End of an era: Stevens' guilty verdict not only all but ended the career of the Senate's longest-serving Republican; it also signaled the end of an era for Senate Republicans. Think about it -- next year, we could see a Senate where there is no Trent Lott (already retired), Pete Domenici (retiring), John Warner (retiring), Stevens (who will most likely lose next week), and possibly Mitch McConnell (who's in the fight of his political life down in Kentucky). And nevermind the possibility that the GOP Senate caucus won't have a Dole, either. That is A LOT of Republican seniority and institutional knowledge that will/might not be there when the next Congress reconvenes. Of course, it also opens the door for a new generation of GOP senators. Thune? Corker? Burr? DeMint? Kyl? The last time we saw this kind of seniority sea change in the Senate was in 1980, when the Democrats lost lions like Bayh, Church, Culver, and McGovern.

*** (Big) Sky's the limit? A new round of NBC/Mason-Dixon polls shows Obama leading by 11 points in New Hampshire (50%-39%), Obama and McCain tied in North Carolina (47%-47%), and McCain only up four in Montana (48%-44%). This Montana poll, in fact, comes just as we've learned that the Republican National Committee's independent expenditure arm will begin advertising there tomorrow. That's right, folks -- Montana is still in play, and the race there could even be closer than the poll suggests when 1) popular Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) is at the top of the ticket; 2) Sen. Max Baucus (D) is cruising to re-election; and 3) the state GOP there is in a mess.

*** Speaking of the map: While there is going to be a lot of deserved focus on Obama's ability to add to new states to the battleground, it is noteworthy that in this last week, one state is first among equals in the campaign's focus -- and that's an old reliable battleground state: Florida. The Obama campaign is flooding the state with candidate and surrogate visits. The first Obama-Bill Clinton event is set for tomorrow in Florida (and that follows an Obama-Hillary Clinton event in Florida last week). Joe Biden was there yesterday; Obama will be there for two days this week; Caroline Kennedy was there yesterday. It's clearly the state the Obama campaign sees as the McCain backbreaker. The electoral map message an Obama victory in Florida would send shivers down Republican spines. The Democrats already have a big state advantage with CA, NY, IL, PA, MI, and NJ. Add FL and what big states do the Republicans have left to count on besides TX? Republicans better hope this is a one-time phenomenon. But over the last decade, the trend has been in favor of the Democrats in the growth states. That's a flip from the decade before, when it was the GOP that was showing strength in the growth states.

*** The night the lights went out in Georgia? With seven days until Election Day, we're going to profile a Senate race a day that you should keep your eye on. Today's installment: Georgia. The fact that Democrats are daring to covet the seat once held by war veteran Max Cleland (D) and venerated nuke czar Sam Nunn (D) speaks volumes about how the political environment has changed since Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) unseated Cleland in 2002. The DSCC recently started pumping major dollars into the race, hoping to propel former state Rep. Jim Martin to a once-fantastical victory over the well-funded Chambliss. Most of the movement in the race's slowly-but-surely closing poll numbers has more to do with anti-Bush sentiment and anxiety over the economy than with any action by either campaign. Still, Democrats relish the idea of a knife-fight with Chambliss, who successfully ousted Cleland, a triple amputee, by airing ads that slammed his Senate voting record as weak on national security. A recent NBC/Mason-Dixon poll had Chambliss up six points, 45%-39%.

*** Georgia on our minds: If Martin wins, he'll have Obama to thank because the surge in African-American turnout is clearly benefiting the Democrat. By the way, Georgia could be the state that is the final race called in the country. Why? The state has that quirky runoff law, and a third-party candidate in the race might hold one of the major party candidates under 50%. The last time Georgia hosted a Senate runoff was the last time the country elected a new Democratic president: 1992, when the election of Clinton ended up helping the Republicans pull the Senate upset (Paul Coverdell defeated Wyche Fowler). This time, however, Republicans fear that an Obama victory will only energize African Americans in the runoff and make Chambliss' path to victory even more difficult.

*** Taking the (ballot) initiative: We're also going to take a look at some of the more interesting ballot propositions. Today's focus: the definition of "personhood" in Colorado. Voters there will be asked whether or not the "personhood" of a human being begins at the moment of fertilization. Backers insist that the measure is not intended to spur an unraveling of abortion rights, while opponents say that granting an embryo constitutional rights is a radical move that would knock individual and states rights down in a legal Domino effect. But despite a lot of buzz, opponents of Amendment 48 aren't sweating too much; polling shows that the state's voters will vote no, perhaps by as much as a 2-1 ratio.

*** Fun fact of the day: With Montana in the news today, it's worth noting that only twice since 1948 has a Democrat won the state -- in 1964 (when only six states voted against LBJ) and 1992 (when Ross Perot got 26% of the vote and Bill Clinton wound up beating George H.W. Bush 38%-35%). Kerry got 39% of the vote in Montana in 2004.

*** On the trail: McCain and Palin, in Pennsylvania, attend joint rallies in Hershey and Quakertown before heading on separate paths -- McCain to Fayetteville, NC and Palin to Shippensburg, PA. Obama stumps in Chester, PA, Harrisonburg, VA, and Norfolk, VA. Biden, in Florida, hits rallies in Ocala and Melbourne. Michelle Obama holds a rally in Las Vegas, NM. And Hillary Clinton campaigns for Obama in New Hampshire. 

Countdown to Election Day 2008: 7 days
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 72 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 84 days
 
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.

Voting problems? Call 866-OUR-VOTE or log on to 866ourvote.org.

The Washington Post writes, "Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, one of Congress's most powerful Republicans, was convicted yesterday of lying on financial disclosure forms to conceal his receipt of gifts and expensive renovations to his house, just eight days before he faces voters in a tight reelection contest. The 84-year-old lawmaker, the first sitting U.S. senator to go on trial in more than two decades, sat quietly as a jury foreman in federal court read the verdict after less than a day of deliberations: guilty on seven felony counts, each with a maximum penalty of five years in prison. The senator, who probably will face a less severe penalty under federal sentencing guidelines, left the courtroom without answering reporters' questions."

Stevens released a statement saying that he would appeal the verdict and would maintain his re-election bid. "I am obviously disappointed in the verdict but not surprised given the repeated instances of prosecutorial misconduct in this case. The prosecutors had to report themselves to the Justice Department's Office of Professional Responsibility during the trial for ethical violations. Exculpatory evidence was hidden from my lawyers. A witness was kept from us and then sent back to Alaska. The Government lawyers allowed evidence to be introduced that they knew was false. I will fight this unjust verdict with every ounce of energy I have."

More: "I am innocent. This verdict is the result of the unconscionable manner in which the Justice Department lawyers conducted this trial. I ask that Alaskans and my Senate colleagues stand with me as I pursue my rights. I remain a candidate for the United States Senate."

USA Today adds, The verdict comes about a week before Alaska's voters will decide whether to re-elect the Republican senator to an eighth term and at a time when his party is fighting to stem its losses in a tough year… 'I think it's all over,' said Ivan Moore, an independent pollster in Alaska whose poll last week showed Stevens and his Democratic challenger, Mark Begich, virtually tied."

The New York Times: "If Mr. Stevens loses his seat, the trial's implications could be felt on a broad political scale, helping Democrats in their drive to win enough seats in the Senate to give them a filibuster-proof majority of at least 60 votes…If Mr. Stevens wins and insists on keeping his seat, his fate will be in the hands of his Senate colleagues. A senator can be expelled only by a two-thirds vote of the entire Senate, so a conviction does not automatically cost a lawmaker his seat. Since 1789, only 15 senators have been expelled, most for supporting the Confederacy during the Civil War, the Senate Web site states."

"In 1982, the Senate Ethics Committee recommended that Senator Harrison A. Williams, Democrat of New Jersey, be expelled because of his conviction on bribery, conspiracy and conflict of interest charges in the Abscam scandal, and in 1995 the committee recommended the expulsion of Senator Robert W. Packwood, Republican of Oregon, for sexual misconduct. Both men resigned before the full Senate could vote."

The Washington Post notes that Obama's and McCain's speeches yesterday differed in tone and substance. Obama "began offering voters here and in Canton, Ohio, a 'closing argument' that sounded much like the opening argument he made when he began his campaign nearly two years ago. It was an expansive, lofty call that emphasized economic revival, played down partisan politics and conjured up an image of election results that could 'change the world.'"

"Sen. John McCain, campaigning in Ohio, made clear he would appeal to pocketbook concerns and depend on a tried-and-tested tactic of portraying his Democratic rival as a tax-and-spend liberal. He touted his experience and urged voters to look past Obama's speechmaking skills."

Speaking of contrasts, the McCain campaign has a new TV ad that compares the two candidates.

The script: "Your choice... For higher taxes ... for workin' Joe's.
Spread your income ... keep what's yours.
A trillion in new spending ... freeze spending, eliminate waste.
Pain for small business ... economic growth.
Risky ... proven.
For a stronger America, McCain."

The New York Times looks at yesterday's back-and-forth over taxes. "Mr. Obama castigated Mr. McCain, the Republican nominee, for 'embracing the same old Bush-McCain policies that have failed us for the last eight years' and for wanting to 'give more to billionaires and big corporations and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else.' Mr. McCain offered the other side of that historic divide, accusing Mr. Obama of wanting to take money from those who have it and give it to those who do not. Mr. McCain seized on a radio interview Mr. Obama gave seven years ago to reinforce the argument that Mr. Obama wants to 'spread the wealth,' as the Democrat put it on the campaign trail recently."

"Mr. McCain read aloud part of the radio interview in Dayton, Ohio, in a speech to supporters, who booed the notion of 'redistributive change,' as Mr. Obama put it. 'That's what change means for the Obama administration — the Redistributor,' Mr. McCain said. 'It means taking your money and giving it to someone else. He believes in redistributing wealth, not in policies that grow our economy and create jobs.'"

But the Washington Post's fact-checker argues that McCain is taking that radio interview out of context. "On closer inspection, the "bombshell audio" turns out to be a rather wonkish, somewhat impenetrable, discussion of the Supreme Court under Earl Warren. Obama, then a University of Chicago law professor and Illinois state senator, argued that the courts have traditionally been reluctant to get involved in income distribution questions. He suggested that the civil rights movement had made a mistake in expecting too much from the courts -- and that such issues were better decided by the legislative branch of government."

More: "The McCain camp is wrong to suggest that the Illinois senator advocated an 'wealth redistribution' role for the Supreme Court in his 2001 interview."

Irony alert. "The fact that the campaigns are running misleading ads is not surprising. The fact that Obama is wildly outspending McCain going down the stretch is much more likely to be remembered once the campaign is over," the Boston Globe's Canellos writes. "And the questions will be: Did Obama's lavish campaign end, once and for all, the idea of federal spending limits? And did the spending limits help to take down their prime author, McCain? It seems likely that most of Washington will see it that way. Some Republicans are privately grumbling that McCain helped create a system of campaign finance rules that hurt the GOP, and that he's now getting his just deserts by having to watch Obama saturate the airwaves in the final weeks of their bitterly fought presidential campaign."

COLORADO: "With Election Day one week from today, only about a third of the people who requested mail-in ballots in Colorado have so far returned them," the Denver Post writes. "That figure surprises some political insiders, who thought -- more than three weeks after mail-in ballots started going out -- that the number would be higher." 

FLORIDA: Trackers of potential Election Day woes beware. "More than 2,000 new Tampa Bay voters are on the state's "no match" list of unverified identities, and their votes in next week's election may not count as a result. Those people, part of more than 12,000 statewide, must cast provisional ballots unless they can quickly resolve discrepancies between their completed voter registration forms and driver license or Social Security numbers in government databases."  

INDIANA: Early vote in Indiana is breaking records. "In Marion County alone, about 80,000 voters -- either through in-person voting or by mail-in absentee ballot -- are expected to vote before Election Day, nearly three times as many as in 2004." More: "Statewide, more than 286,000 Hoosiers had voted by Sunday evening. In 2004, 260,550 Hoosiers voted early." 

MINNESOTA: McCain is cutting back on ad spending. "Until recently, Minnesota was one of the rare places where McCain was outspending Obama on TV ads. At his peak, McCain was spending more than $500,000 per week on commercials in the Twin Cities although Minnesota hasn't backed a GOP presidential candidate since 1972."  

MONTANA: "McCain, confident of winning the state and its three electoral votes, is virtually ignoring it, although the Republican National Committee will begin airing ads in Montana for the first time Wednesday. Obama's campaign didn't back off when the state appeared to be a shoo-in for John McCain in September. And now McCain's lead appears to be in doubt. A recent Montana State University-Billings poll showed the race within the margin of error, with Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 40 percent among likely voters, and 10 percent undecided. Obama's rise may be less about his appeal and more about dissatisfaction with McCain among independent-minded voters."

NORTH CAROLINA: According to data examined by NBC News, another 200,000 folks voted yesterday, bringing the total to 1.4 million early voters -- a record already and approximately 50% of the entire president turnout in 2004. Democratic ballots outnumber Republican ballots by just under a 2-1 ratio. African-Americans make up 32.3% of the ballots turned in so far. In the 2004 exit polls, African-Americans made up 26% of the overall North Carolina electorate.

OHIO: Here's something important to watch for in the Buckeye State, warns the Columbus Dispatch: "As a result of concerns about the reliability of touch-screens and long lines at the polls, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner ordered Franklin County and the 52 other counties using the electronic machines to make paper ballots available on Election Day. But while elections officials say it's difficult to predict how many voters will opt for a paper ballot, they plan to count them only after all the electronic votes are tallied -- meaning final vote totals could be delayed in some counties until early in the day after the election." 

PENNSYLVANIA: "Both campaigns were converging Tuesday on Pennsylvania, where Obama is ahead in the race for its 21 electoral votes," the AP writes. "It takes 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the presidency. Obama had scheduled a rally in Chester, a Philadelphia suburb, at the same time as the McCain-Palin event in Hershey. Palin is very popular with the Republican Party base and McCain was using her to energize those voters."

By the way, it's never good when the person in charge of the Senate races for the party starts pointing fingers at the top of the ticket before the election even takes place. "Ensign said there is a 'fair possibility' that Democrats could gain 60 seats in the Senate. 'There's no question the top of the ticket is affecting our Senate races and it's making it a lot more difficult,' Ensign said on MSNBC. 'It's a fairly toxic atmosphere out there with the financial crisis for Republicans.'"

The Los Angeles Times notes the lack of access the press has had in covering Obama. "First Clinton, then John McCain made the argument that Obama is someone we don't really know. Obama's supporters counter that we have his record in the U.S. and Illinois senates, two memoirs that reveal his inner thinking and a vast trove of public speaking. Ironically, those of us who were sent out to take his measure in person can't offer much help in answering who he is, or if he is ready. The barriers set in place between us and him were just too great."

The New York Times profiles Michelle Obama. "While some of Senator Barack Obama's advisers once viewed Mrs. Obama as an unpredictable force who sometimes spoke her mind a little too much, she is now regarded within the campaign as a disciplined and effective advocate for her husband. She has also, advisers believe, gone a long way toward addressing her greatest unstated challenge: making more voters comfortable with the idea of a black first lady."

Meanwhile, the Chicago Sun-Times profiles Obama adviser and hoops pal Eric Whitaker. "Five years ago, Obama, then an Illinois state senator, gave a 'glowing' reference for Whitaker to Tony Rezko, the now-convicted political fixer who helped Gov. Blagojevich find people to run state agencies. Blagojevich hired Whitaker to be the state's public health director. Obama has said that's the only time he can recall talking to Rezko -- who was a major campaign fund-raiser for him and for Blagojevich -- about getting anyone a state job." Dr. Whitaker has a master's in public health from Harvard."
 
"As state health chief, Whitaker spent millions on programs that used churches to educate minorities about AIDS, breast cancer and preparing for public health emergencies, a program hailed nationwide. Whitaker's agency also got caught up in scandal. He oversaw the budget of the Illinois Health Facilities Planning Board, which approves medical construction projects. Rezko and his associates controlled that board, which they used to solicit kickbacks and payoffs, according to testimony at Rezko's trial. Rezko was convicted. Whitaker, who said he wasn't involved in the board's day-to-day operations, was never accused of any wrongdoing." Whitaker was hired on at the University of Chicago where he worked with Michelle Obama and could be in line for a federal position, if Obama wins.

Politico's Roger Simon asks: Is Palin prepping for a bid four years from now? "Sarah Palin may soon be free. Soon, she may not have the millstone of John McCain around her neck. And she can begin her race for president in 2012. Some are already talking about it. In careful terms. If John McCain loses next week, Sarah Palin 'has absolutely earned a right to run in 2012,' says Greg Mueller, who was a senior aide in the presidential campaigns of Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes. Mueller says Palin has given conservatives 'hope' and 'something to believe in.'" 

COLORADO: The Rocky Mountain News offers this campaign profile of the man who may be Colorado's new senator after next week, Mark Udall.

NEVADA: After winning NV-3 in 2004 54%-40%, in 2006, Jon Porter (R) escaped with a slim 48%-47% victory in 2006 over Sen. Harry Reid's former press secretary, Tessa Hafen (D). But this time around, "Democratic registration has surged," the AP writes. "Since the Republican legislator was first elected in 2002, Democrats have added 50,000 voters to their rolls in Nevada's 3rd District. The party now boasts a 30,000-voter lead over Republicans. Furthermore, many of his constituents are dissatisfied with President Bush, the Iraq war and, most recently, the implosion of a local economy that runs on tourism and development."

NORTH CAROLINA: The Raleigh News & Observer offers a primer on the Dole-Hagan race. "There has been little talk of what … Dole or her Democratic challenger, Kay Hagan, would do about health care, the economy or U.S. foreign policy. Instead, the race has turned into a referendum on President Bush."

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Ted Stevens just released this written statement: "I am obviously disappointed in the verdict but not surprised given the repeated instances of prosecutorial misconduct in this case. The prosecutors had to report themselves to the Justice Department's Office of Professional Responsibility during the trial for ethical violations. Exculpatory evidence was hidden from my lawyers. A witness was kept from us and then sent back to Alaska. The Government lawyers allowed evidence to be introduced that they knew was false. I will fight this unjust verdict with every ounce of energy I have."

He added, "I am innocent. This verdict is the result of the unconscionable manner in which the Justice Department lawyers conducted this trial. I ask that Alaskans and my Senate colleagues stand with me as I pursue my rights. I remain a candidate for the United States Senate."

From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger

ROANOKE, Va. -- Calling it a sad day for her state, Palin today called on Sen. Ted Stevens (R) to "do the right thing," after the Alaska senator was convicted in his federal corruption trial.

After waiting more than an hour for Palin to emerge from an airport lounge and board her plane at the Richmond airport, a podium was set up in the rain. The governor disembarked from the bus and gave brief remarks, ignoring questions.

"The verdict shines a light though on the corrupting influence of the big oil service company up there in Alaska that was allowed to control too much of our state," she said. "And that control was part of the culture of corruption that I was elected to fight. And that fight must always move forward regardless of party affiliation or seniority or even past service.

Palin said she would monitor the situation and would "take any appropriate action as needed." She called on Alaskans to respect the workings of the judicial system. "And I'm confident that Sen. Stevens, from this point on, will do the right thing for the state of Alaska," she said.

With Stevens on the ballot next week, the remaining question is whether Palin will vote for him, or has already done so by absentee ballot, which she suggested earlier this month might be how she casts her vote.

Palin ignored repeated questions on whether she would vote for Stevens as she boarded the plane.

From NBC's Pete Williams, Mike Kosnar, and Mark Murray

A jury found Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens (R) guilty on all seven counts in his federal corruption trial. He was convicted of lying about $250,000 of gifts and renovations on his Alaska home.

Video: Alaska's Sen. Ted Stevens has been found guilty on seven counts of making false statements. NBC's Pete Williams reports.

This conviction boosts the prospects of Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) defeating Stevens in next week's Senate race.

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones

CANTON, OH -- In a rousing speech his campaign billed as his "closing argument," Obama laid out the case for electing him over his rival, and returned to a theme that was a central part of his campaign during the primaries: hope.

The roughly 33-minute speech repeated well-rehearsed lines and themes from the campaign trail in recent weeks, but rather than with sharp hits on McCain -- sparked by the news of the day -- Obama spelled out the contrasts between the two candidates in more general terms, especially on tax policy.

He hailed McCain for his service -- a line that has been a part of his remarks intermittently throughout the campaign, yet that has been missing in the past few weeks -- but said he electing him would mean a continuation of the failed economic policies of George Bush.

Speaking before an audience of nearly 5,000 in a hard-hit area of a state that has suffered with one of the highest jobless rates in the nation, Obama portrayed himself as a champion of the middle class and someone who would give tax breaks to working people, not just the wealthy and big corporations, as he said McCain would.

Obama, who spoke with the help of a teleprompter (a common sight at events in recent weeks), stressed the themes of hope, unity, and a new kind of politics more than he has in recent weeks, arguing that the size of the country's challenges –- economic and otherwise -- had outgrown the "smallness of our politics." He added that to resolve the economic crisis the country faces would require getting past the ideological debates that divide right and left.

"In one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, and city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope," he said. "As I've said from the day we began this journey all those months ago, the change we need isn't just about new programs and policies. It's about a new attitude. It's about new politics -- a politics that calls on our better angels instead of encouraging our worst instincts; one that reminds us of the obligations we have to ourselves and one another."

It was the Democratic nominee's first trip to Canton -- in Stark County, which John Kerry won by just over 3,100 votes in 2004 -- and his 11th trip to this battleground state since clinching the nomination in June, his campaign said.

The senator reminisced about the long road to get to this point, saying the pundits and the polls had not given him much of a chance. He went on to talk about his agenda for energy, health care, education, and ending the war in Iraq. And he said that confronting the nation's challenges would not be easy and would require Washington rein in spending -- without specifying what parts of his agenda may have to be scaled back.

Obama closed his remarks with a long refrain on hope, this time tying it to the American story. He said it was hope that had led parents to work hard to make it possible for their children to go to college, immigrants to travel to America to carve out a better life and that led people fighting for the right to vote "to cry out, "It may look dark tonight, but if I hold on to hope, tomorrow will be brighter."

"That's what this election is about. That is the choice we face right now," he said as the audience rose to its feet.

But he reminded his supporters the election was not over. "We have to work like our future depends on it in this last week, because it does depend on it this week. In one week, we can choose an economy that rewards work and creates new jobs and fuels prosperity from the bottom-up," he said. "In one week, we can choose hope over fear and unity over division, the promise of change over the power of the status quo."

Obama's last words to the crowd before departing for what his campaign expects will be one last trip to Pennsylvania were: "Let's get to work."

McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds emailed this response to Obama's speech. "Barack Obama's 'closing argument' is the same old argument in favor of job-killing tax increases and massive new spending -- it's an argument for closing down opportunity while closing down our economy."

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli

GREENVILLE, N.C. -- Launching his own closing argument today, Biden compared the attacks against Obama to those leveled in the campaigns of the nation's greatest presidents, claiming that the "defenders of the status quo have always tried to dear down those who would change our nation for the better."

Sharing "a little bit of history" with an audience at East Carolina University, Biden said that opponents of Thomas Jefferson claimed he "wasn't a real Christian"; Franklin Roosevelt's critics warned he "would destroy the American system of life"; and the unnamed "they" said that John F. Kennedy would be a "dangerous choice in difficult times."

"Sound familiar?" Biden asked. "New ideas and new leaders are often met with new attacks, and almost always negative attacks built on lies, which are the last resort of those who have nothing new to offer. And that's where we find ourselves. But, folks -- as a nation, as a nation, we've always been able to rise, throughout our history … above the destructive politics and elect the right leader at the right time for the right reasons."

As Biden criticized the practitioners of the politics of division, which he said has been the hallmark of the Republican Party for the past 15 years, he also curiously included a television interviewer, Barbara West of WFTV-TV in Florida, among the culprits.

"I know this has been a pretty mean campaign," he said. "I was on a television station the other day doing a satellite fed to a major network in Florida, and the anchor quotes Karl Marx, and says in a sense, 'Isn't Barack Obama Karl Marx?'… Folks, this stuff you're hearing, this stuff you're hearing in this campaign, some of it's pretty ugly. And some of the innuendo is pretty ugly."

Republicans swiftly reacted to Biden's comments, with McCain campaign spokesperson Ben Porritt drawing attention to the fact that Biden has largely avoided taking questions from reporters that accompany him throughout the country, and "is now attacking any reporter who challenges Barack Obama's economic plan to raise taxes."

Today, Biden also mirrored the closing pitch of his running mate, saying the election offers a choice "between doing the same thing we've done the past eight years and expecting a different outcome, or choosing to tap into the oldest, oldest American belief of all – that we do not have to accept things the way they are."

"The real question is how can we be better off four years from now?" he said.

Referring to McCain's statement Sunday on Meet the Press -- that he and President Bush "share a common philosophy" -- Biden added: "George Bush voted early in the presidential race, and that he said that he was voting for John McCain. I guess that's what you call returning the favor, because he deserves that vote!"

From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger

LEESBURG, Va. -- For days, Palin has been speaking of "Tito the Builder" as another embodiment of a small business owner seeking lower taxes -- in short, another "Joe the Plumber."

Today, Tito Munoz spoke for himself.

Munoz -- dressed in an orange reflector jacket and yellow construction hardhat filled with Republican campaign stickers -- welcomed Palin to Virginia with a message of free enterprise and hard work.

"Everything we stand for is in danger by higher taxes and less freedom," Munoz told an enthusiastic crowd, which frequently chanted his name. "Everything we stand for is made stronger by people like you, like John McCain and Sarah Palin."

For her part, Palin noted the name Tito has not been mentioned this often since the heyday of the Jackson Five. And she said the Colombian immigrant was unhappy with the way Joe Wurzelbacher had been treated after he questioned Obama at a Toledo, OH rally earlier this month.

"Tito wants to know, and I quote, he asked, he says, 'Why the heck are you going after Joe The Plumber,'" Palin said. "'Joe The Plumber has an idea. He has a future. He wants to be something else. Why is that so wrong?"

Palin reiterated the message to small business owners she has said daily on the trail, suggesting Obama's tax plans would hurt small businesses and make it harder for them to hire new employees.

"Tito loves this country, and Tito isn't the only McCain supporter who feels that way," she said. "In fact, I know that we have a lot of small business owners here with us today, and they feel just like Tito does."

Palin also said a McCain Administration would lower business taxes, which are the second highest in the world (although many US corporations find loopholes around them).

The crowd here in Leesburg was creative, inaugurating several new slogans, including "I am Joe" and "Vote McCain, use your brain." When Palin began speaking of her goals to help families with children with special needs, the audience chanted "Bless your heart."

The stop in Leesburg is one of three rallies Palin will hold in Virginia today. The statewide tour comes as the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll finds Obama with an eight-point lead in this traditionally red state.

From NBC's Ron Allen

The nation's most senior senator, Robert C. Byrd, looks a bit frail these days -- but he remains quite feisty. On Friday, in the heart of Charleston, WV, he sat on stage in a wheelchair, with an appropriate-sized lectern and microphone in front of him, tucked next to the main podium, as Joe Biden made the Democratic ticket's first foray here for Barack Obama.

Until recently, the Mountain State seemed beyond reach.

Byrd sat flanked by the state's other Democratic heavyweights, Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Gov. Joe Manchin, a powerful united front trying to make a strong last minute case for Obama-Biden.

Byrd's voice was muffled, at times almost lost in the PA system, and difficult to hear as he read his remarks. Manchin helped by turning the pages. Seemingly unable to summon more volume, Byrd instead repeated the candidates' names -- and others he wanted to emphasize -- numerous times, to help drive his message. A well-placed holler helped too. As in, "my friend and colleague, Barack Obama, Whoa man! Yeah! Barack Obama... showed outstanding judgment when he asked Joe Biden! Joe Biden! Joe Biden to join the ticket." Byrd praised Biden as "no child of privilege" and someone who "knows how to work hard, earn a daily bread. And beans." Byrd punched the air with a somewhat shaky fist. The crowd loved him.

Could West Virginia be falling for Obama-Biden as well?

Obama and Biden have watched the polls narrow in a state that Obama was unable to connect with during the primary season; Hillary Clinton trounced him here by some 40 percentage points. It's among the country's poorest, oldest, least diverse, and least educated states. It's a heavily Democratic state President Bush won twice, the second time by a wide margin. It's the only state completely in Appalachia, where God and guns, family and flag can trump all else. And there's a historical quirk here that Clinton talked about again and again to make her case for the nomination -- that no Democrat has won the White House since 1916 without winning West Virginia. Yet another bit of political folklore that could change in 2008.

All of that was before the financial crisis started taking jobs, savings, and retirements away. Most recent polls still give John McCain a lead of six points or more. However, Rockefeller told the crowd his own poll puts the race in a dead heat. What's more, there are polls from across the nation that suggest Obama's support among white voters is surging. Some even predict he may get the highest share of those voters since Jimmy Carter in '76. No Democrat has won a majority of white voters since Johnson in '64. That dynamic may be what's helping here. It appears voters are becoming more pragmatic as America's economic outlook worsens.

In Charleston, local analyst Robert Rupp of Wesleyan College pointed out some unique West Virginia quirks revealed in a recent poll -- one of the only polls he said that asked locally about matters of race and religion. When asked if "things here...are headed in the right direction?" 46% said yes. Nationally, a huge majority (sometimes about 90%) believes the exact opposite. The West Virginia poll found that one in five West Virginians believes Obama is a Muslim; in fact, he's a Christian. But just 46% here believe that. In addition, some 15% said race is a very or somewhat important factor as to whom will get their vote.

Those findings came to life in the crowd in Charleston listening to Biden. As workers dismantled the stage, lowered the huge American flag next to the bank building, and everyone went back to work, I chatted with a few Obama volunteers about his prospects. They were optimistic. Hopeful. Anxious about what the campaign's final week might bring. One man admitted he still hears a fair number of Obama doubters while canvassing. He even revealed that his brother won't vote for Obama. Why, I asked? "Because he's a redneck," he said. Here, as in other places, the question may be whether pocketbooks prevail over prejudice?

After all the votes are counted next Tuesday, that might be an old story that much of the nation has passed. Again, a new poll suggests Obama is doing just fine with white voters, just as he did through the primaries his supporters often point out.

It's doubtful that Obama or Biden will double back through West Virginia. Its five Electoral Votes are not as significant as the bigger numbers in other battleground states. Al Gore, of course, might beg to differ: Had he won this state that Bill Clinton won twice, Florida would not have mattered.

Obama and Biden will probably leave the final week's heavy lifting to the local leaders who know these voters best -- like Byrd, Rockefeller and Manchin. A quick check of Byrd's biography reveals that he won his first election here in 1946, a seat in the state's House of Delegates. He has seen a lot come and go. His thinking has changed dramatically about matters of race. He has apologized for his past.

Now Byrd seems determined to bring enough of his constituents in line to help deliver the state for Obama and Biden. It was quite a moment that chilly afternoon, when Byrd rallied his fellow West Virginians to support "the next president" -- pausing and turning his head to the heavens. "Hear me now...the next president of the United States, Barack Obama! Barack Obama! Barack Obama!......!!"