From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli

ARNOLD, Mo. -- Recent layoffs at a nearby auto plant were Exhibit A for Biden this morning as he spoke about new economic data showing a shrinking economy.

Reaching out to those who lost their jobs when a Chrysler plant shut its doors in nearby Fenton yesterday, Biden somberly related their plight to those of auto workers in his home state when a GM plant closed, saying that just as he stood with them in good times and bad, and that he and Obama would work to create new jobs if elected.

"That walk from that plant gate to their car to home is one of the longest walks they've ever taken in their life," Biden said, but not as long as the walk they faced at home to tell their kids they might have to sell their home and move elsewhere.

"That conversation is taking place in 35,000 homes right here in Missouri right here this year," he said. "You know, if we can help Wall Street, we oughta be able to help Jeffco Boulevard and other streets in Arnold to be able to do the same thing to help them. And we're not paying enough attention."

He said the Democrats' plans to invest in infrastructure projects and clean energy would create jobs, and that their tax plan would help middle class families during tough times. The drop in America's GDP rate, announced this morning, came because many Americans have cut back on spending.

Meanwhile, Biden said, Exxon Mobil announced their largest quarterly effort.

"Now look, they're not bad guys. I'm not making this populist argument," Biden said. "But lets take a look at it folks. Here the entire economy of America is shrinking. And the oil companies are, this one in fact, made the largest profit in its history in a quarter. Ladies and gentlemen, what more evidence do we need that the Exxon Mobils of the world don't need a tax break? That $4 billion should go to middle class taxpayers, people who need the money. … John [McCain] and Governor Palin have this upside down."

This is Biden's fourth trip to Missouri, though the stop would be the only one before he heads back to Pennsylvania for the first time in nearly three weeks. Biden said he and Obama are closing on a positive note, pointing to last night's prime-time infomercial as proof.

"You saw Barack last night in that half hour message, never once mentioned John McCain's name. Never once mentioned our opponent," he said. "We've been talking about what we are going to do, what we think has to be done. And when this is over, even those people who viciously attacked Barack, even those people who have been less than honest about us, we gotta reach out. … We gotta start healing the country."

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy

DEFIANCE, Ohio -- "Where is Joe? Is Joe here with us today?"

That's the question John McCain asked roughly 6,000 people at Defiance Junior High School here this morning, But the correct answer was no -- Joe the Plumber was nowhere to be found.

There are conflicting reports about where or when or if Joe will appear with McCain at some point during his two-day bus tour of Ohio, but the candidate clearly thought that he was meeting him here in Defiance, the first stop on the tour.

Video: At an Ohio rally, Sen. John McCain calls out to 'Joe the plumber'  but Joe wasn't there, so he tells the audience, "you're all Joe."

While riffing on a common line from his stump speech about Obama's desire to "spread the wealth," McCain confidently proclaimed, "Joe's with us today. Joe where are ya? Where is Joe? Is Joe here with us today? Joe, I thought you were here today."

Then the senator covered up for Joe's absence by saying, "All right, well you're all Joe the Plumber. So all of ya stand up ,and say I thank you." McCain went on to say that he had seen Joe on TV this morning, and he asked the crowd to "give him a round of applause for what he's done for America.

McCain also hit Obama on some comments he made to ABC's Charlie Gibson last night when asked if he had thought about what he would do after November 4th if he lost. "Last night, Sen. Obama said that if he lost he would return to the Senate and try again in four years with a second act. That sounds like a great idea to me. Let's help him make it happen."

But Obama didn't tell Gibson that he'd make another White House run; he said he looked forward returning to the Senate and working with the next president and Congress.

"Look," Obama said, "when I started this campaign we were the longest of long shots, and Michelle and I were extraordinarily happy before I started running. And I'm a relatively young man. Ya know, they say there are no second acts in politics, but I think there are enough exceptions out there, that I could envision returning to the Senate and just doing some terrific work with the next President and next Congress."

A local school district official confirmed after the event that of the 6,000 people estimated by the fire marshal to be in attendance this morning, more than 4,000 were bused in from schools in the area. The entire 2,500-student Defiance School District was in attendance, the official said, in addition to at least three other schools from neighboring districts, one of which sent 14 buses.

From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
As some pundits predict thunderclouds gathering on the horizon for incumbent Senate Republicans, a new NBC poll shows that Sen. Norm Coleman may be positioned to ride out the storm. 

The results from the poll of likely voters, conducted by Mason-Dixon October 27-28, have Coleman leading opponent Al Franken by six points, 42-36, with 12% of respondents favoring Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley.   One in ten Minnesotans are undecided.

Video: In a year when "Saturday Night Live" is making big waves by lampooning politicians, a famous alumnus, Al Franken, is hoping to become one. NBC's John Yang reports.

If Coleman puts daylight between Franken's numbers and his own on Election Day, he may have Barkley to thank.  While he has shored up 89% of voters who identify as Republicans, with  only 4% defecting to Barkley's camp, only about three out of four Democrats say that they support their party nominee, with 17% of Democratic voters favoring the Independence Party candidate over Franken.

Franken's bombastic and sometimes offensive outbursts during his days as a comedian, highlighted by ads run by his Republican opponents, appear to have taken a toll.  He has a net negative approval rating among respondents, with almost half saying that they have an unfavorable impression of the former entertainer.

Coleman, who has pushed to cast himself as a forward-looking and optimistic candidate, is beating his opponent by double digits among voters 35-64 and by 15 points among men. 

The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 4%, also showed Barack Obama leading McCain in Minnesota 48% to 40%.

From NBC's Mark Murray
A new NBC News/Princeton Survey Research Associates International poll shows McCain with an 11-point lead over Obama among likely South Carolina voters, 53%-42%.

Yet that margin is smaller is among registered voters, 50%-44%.

Video: In response to the recent reports of dissension in the McCain camp Sen. John McCain explains that there is always a little friction in any presidential campaign. CBNC's John Harwood reports.

Also don't miss this nugget from Princeton Survey pollster Evans Witt: cellphone respondents tend to back Obama by a greater percentage. "Unlike many state polls during the 2008 campaign, this survey included interviews on both landline phones and on cellphones in South Carolina. Among the landline interviews, McCain holds a 50% to 42% margin. But among cellphone interviews, the candidates are tied: McCain 48% and Obama 49%. Those interviewed on cell phone are more likely to be young and young voters heavily favor Obama."

The poll was conducted from October 25-28, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 4% for registered voters and plus-minus 5% for likely voters.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** The Barack-umentary: Last night's Obama infomercial seemed to pull out all the stops. Details for his plans? Check. Profiles of families from key battleground states? Check. Testimonials from popular politicians from battleground states? Check. Climax at the end with a jam-packed rally? Check. Still, it was pretty clear the Obama camp took to heart the potential criticism of the infomercial being over-the-top. Large parts of it were pretty subdued. It was interesting how it was focused on voters -- and not himself. One might have expected a little more biography. Then again, if he felt the need to fix his bio with voters at this late date, he'd be in trouble. The end was impressive. Not since Reagan have we seen a candidate so adept at hitting his time cues. Even if you didn't like the 30-minute spot -- and even if it didn't win over a single undecided voter -- this much is true: It gobbled up a day's worth of attention. And we now have just five days left…

Video: NBC Deputy Director Mark Murray offers his first read on the impact of Barack Obama's 30-minute infomercial and the latest NBC electoral map snapshot.

*** Al Gore returns to Florida: Tomorrow, according to sources, Al and Tipper Gore will be stumping for Obama in West Palm Beach and Fort. Lauderdale. It's the first time he's campaigned in Florida for president since 2000. While he's campaigned in the Sunshine State since 2000, he's not done so for a presidential candidate since he himself was running. It's more evidence that the Obama campaign believes Florida -- more so than Ohio, Missouri, Indiana or even North Carolina -- is the back-breaker. From last night's infomercial to the first Bill Clinton event with Obama, every little thing appears to be geared toward winning Florida.  

*** Sitting down with Brian Williams: As we mentioned yesterday, Obama had a busy day Wednesday (the rally with Bill Clinton, interviews with Jon Stewart and ABC's Charlie Gibson, and the infomercial). Today, Obama sits down with NBC's Brian Williams. Be sure to tune into Nightly News at 6:30 pm ET for the interview.

Video: Following Barack Obama's half-hour prime-time ad, former President Bill Clinton offered a ringing endorsement at a late-night rally in Florida. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.

*** The feeding frenzy: A senior Palin aide yesterday lambasted news organizations for confusing the answers to two questions in ABC's interview with the Alaska governor, and for suggesting Palin was reflecting on presidential ambitions for 2012. However, this is more evidence of how Palin -- the GOP ticket's No.2 -- is still taking up too much oxygen, and that's the real problem with her candidacy. She's become the focal point of every process story in America. Now, the 2012 speculation yesterday was a product more of media hype than anything she actually said. But it's turned her political future into another feeding frenzy.

*** Another day, another round of polls: New NBC/Mason-Dixon polls show the race in Pennsylvania to be a bit closer than other polls have suggested. Also, they have McCain ahead by just four points in his home state of Arizona. In Pennsylvania, Obama's up 47%-43%; in Minnesota, he's up 48%-40%; and in Arizona, it's McCain 48%, Obama 44%. Meanwhile, here are some new CNN/Time polls: Obama's up eight points in Colorado among likely voters (53%-45%); up four in Florida (51%-47%); and up nine points in Virginia (53%-44%). McCain, meanwhile, leads in Georgia (52%-47%) and Missouri (50%-48%). And a second batch of CNN/Time polls have McCain up eight points in Arizona (53%-46%), but Obama leading in Nevada (52%-45%), North Carolina (52%-46%), Ohio (51%-47%), and Pennsylvania (55%-43%).

*** Flashback time: By the way, today just happens to be the one-year anniversary of the MSNBC debate in Philadelphia that tripped up Hillary Clinton on the question of drivers' licenses for illegal immigrants. It seems longer than a year, right?

*** The politics of the bailout: Forty-one out of the 51 senators in the Democratic caucus voted for the $700 billion financial rescue package earlier this month, reports MSNBC.com's Tom Curry. But two Democratic Senate candidates are now using the bailout as weapon to assail Republican incumbents who voted for it. In Minnesota yesterday, Democratic challenger Al Franken slammed the bailout as "an outrage," waging a populist appeal against opponent Norm Coleman, whom he hopes to paint as a Washington insider. In Georgia, Democrat Jim Martin has slammed Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) for voting for the bill, and his campaign said yesterday that, "Saxby isn't telling the truth about the bailout." Chambliss hopes that his "yea" vote for the measure will not peel supporters away in the tough Georgia Senate race, acknowledging that there has been some grassroots Republican indignation about the bill but that more and more Georgians were seeing that it was needed. (Democrats in two of the country's other tight races have no such ammunition -- Sens. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and Roger Wicker of Mississippi voted "no" on the $700 billion package.)

*** Fun fact of the day: There's been a lot of talk of Obama's expanded map. One place that's probably too much of a reach for Obama is West Virginia -- though it is Lean McCain. But do you know that no Democrat has won the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916, when it went for former Republican New York Gov. Charles Evans Hughes, U.S. Supreme Court Justice, over Woodrow Wilson. The Teddy Roosevelt-backed Hughes actually almost won that election. The result hung in the balance for three days because of a close vote in California, which ultimately went for Wilson by just 3,773 votes. By the way, Republicans haven't won a Senate race in West Virginia since 1956, and that losing streak will continue with this year's election.

*** On the trail: McCain spends his day in Ohio, stopping in Defiance, Sandusky, Elyria, and Mentor. Obama holds three rallies in three different states: Sarasota, FL, Virginia Beach, VA, and Columbia, MO. Biden stumps in Arnold, MO before heading to Pennsylvania, where he visits Williamsport and Allentown. And Palin campaigns has rallies in Cape Girardeau, MO, Erie, PA, and Williamsport, PA.

Countdown to Election Day 2008: 5 days
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 70 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 82 days
 
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The New York Times' Leibovich notes the differences between rallies for McCain-Palin and Obama. "Supporters of Senators Barack Obama and Joseph R. Biden Jr. often look like Benetton-colored billboards, decked out for their candidates in Obama-Biden hats, T-shirts and buttons. Supporters of Senator John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin like logo merchandise, too, but tend more toward pompoms (yes, pompoms), homemade signs ('Pitbulls 4 Freedom'), flag pins and chest paint. There is more dancing at Democratic rallies, more shouting out at Republican ones. They chant 'Yes, we can' (or 'Sí, se puede') at Obama and Biden rallies, 'U.S.A.' and 'Drill, baby, drill' at McCain and Palin rallies; the D's bounce to blaring folk-rock and Motown (Bruce Springsteen, Stevie Wonder) and the R's counter with country-pop (including Dolly Parton's '9 to 5') and arena rock (AC/DC)."

Leibovich adds, "Democratic rallygoers seem more worried about Ms. Palin than about Mr. McCain. They speak of feeling weary of 'the politics of fear' and claim Mr. McCain and Ms. Palin are 'irrelevant' — unless they win, as one supporter in Charleston, W.Va., said with a smile-cringe. When you ask Republicans what they think of Mr. Obama, the word 'socialist' comes up more often than not. They mention that he is a smooth talker, and not in a good way. A lot of them seem to have real problems with Michelle Obama, too, though they cannot pinpoint why. And they do not much care for that Joe Biden, either, or whatever his name is — many cannot immediately summon it."

Politico says it would be a mistake for the McCain campaign to bank on grabbing a lion's share of the undecided vote to close the gap. "The pool of undecided voters on Election Day could be as large as one in 10, but John McCain can hardly rely on them to overtake Barack Obama. According to past election results, undecided voters are unlikely to break decisively for either candidate and dramatically alter Tuesday's race. In the past eight presidential contests, voters who made up their minds during the last week of the campaign never went for either ticket by large margins of 3-2 or 2-1, which potentially could tip the scales. 'There is likely no hidden life raft in the undecided vote for John McCain,' said Andy Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center."

The Boston Globe on the war over the airwaves. "An unprecedented $64 million worth of television ads in just the final week of the race will put an exclamation point on the most expensive presidential campaign in history…. McCain, bolstered by about $18 million in late spending by the Republican National Committee, will hold his own against Democrat Barack Obama on the airwaves in the closing days. But over the course of the long campaign, the Obama operation will have spent more than $100 million more than McCain and the RNC on TV ads, according to data compiled for the Obama campaign and reviewed by the Globe."

"McCain says racism will play virtually no role when voters head to the polls next Tuesday because it will be trumped by the nation's economic problems. ... Referring to people who might vote against Democrat Barack Obama because he is black, McCain added: 'It would be a tiny, tiny, minority. Because people are hurting too much now. I mean, they're worried about staying in their homes, keeping their jobs.'"

ARIZONA: TPM reports that McCain is running robo-calls against Obama in his home state. "The call signals genuine worry about McCain's home state at a time when several polls show the race to be much closer than expected there." 

COLORADO: Per the Denver Post: "Ballots cast by voters who have been canceled from the state's voter rolls since mid-May will get extra oversight to make sure their votes are counted, under an agreement reached late Wednesday in U.S. District Court." Three Dem-leaning groups "sued Colorado Secretary of State Mike Coffman, alleging that his office had violated the National Voter Registration Act by illegally purging about 31,000 eligible voters from the rolls 90 days before the election."

FLORIDA: More than one in five early voters in Florida are African-American, the Orlando Sentinel reports, but young people don't appear to be voting at high rates.

MISSOURI: The St. Louis Dispatch front-pages a numbers-rich primer on Missouri voting and potential problems at the ballot Tuesday. 

NEW HAMPSHIRE: The intrigue around the New Hampshire primary is long since forgotten, but Secretary of State Bill Gardner is still keeping busy, with record turnout expected in the Granite State next Tuesday. "Gardner said he is expecting a turnout of close to 80 percent of the state's 884,000 registered voters, with 40,000 signing up on Election Day. In 2004, about 683,000 voted."

NORTH CAROLINA: The Raleigh News & Observer does the crowd count math: "While Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has spoken to crowds totaling 169,050 in almost all of the major metropolitan areas of the state, McCain has come here only a handful of times. ... In all, McCain has spoken to about 17,900 people."

NORTH DAKOTA: "In interviews around this prairie state, most people say the economy is a top issue and they're frustrated with government," the AP reports. "But they also aren't sure how to express that frustration -- some Republicans are turning to Obama for change, while some Democrats say they aren't comfortable with Obama's level of experience. Either way, their support for McCain isn't a sure thing."

OHIO:  Hey, remember the gas tax holiday idea? This Columbus Dispatch headline offers a reminder that worrying about gas prices is SO last summer: "Gas for $1.99 bringing 'a lot of joy.'" 
 
LeBron James and Jay-Z held a rally for Obama in Cleveland last night, telling their young audience, "Nov. 4 is the most important day of our lives."

PENNSYLVANIA: A Philly Inquirer story profiles Westmoreland County, east of Pittsburgh, where John McCain appears to be besting Barack Obama by a wide margin. The piece offers a good caveat to keep in mind when crunching those voter registration numbers: "Republicans won big in Westmoreland in the last two presidential elections, even though there are 49,187 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the county. Those victories were built upon defections among conservative Democrats and growth in GOP-friendly bedroom communities along U.S. Route 30." Bush won the district, 56%-44%.

McCain tried to refocus on national security and whether Obama could keep the country safe. "The question is whether this is a man who has what it takes to protect America from Osama bin Laden, Al Qaeda, and the other great threats in the world," McCain said. "He has given no reason to answer in the affirmative." Just asking... but wouldn't any president have the American military, the CIA and an arsenal of nuclear weapons?

The Los Angeles Times covers the McCain camp's criticism of the paper for not releasing a video of "a 2003 event at which Barack Obama paid tribute to a Palestinian scholar. The Republican presidential and vice presidential nominees accused the newspaper of trying to protect their Democratic rival in the final days before Tuesday's election. Editors at The Times and the reporter who wrote an article in April about Obama's connection to the Palestinian scholar, Rashid Khalidi, said they were ethically bound to abide by a promise to a confidential source not to share the video."

The New York Times adds, "The video shows a gathering in Chicago for Rashid Khalidi, a teacher, writer and Obama friend who is critical of Israel. Mr. Obama spoke at the dinner, where other speakers likened Israel and Israelis to terrorists. The McCain campaign said the tape could show how Mr. Obama reacted to anti-Israel remarks… Some conservatives question the sincerity of Mr. Obama's stated support for Israel, a crucial issue to many Jewish voters in swing states like Florida. Mr. Obama's campaign says that his stance on the matter has not changed and that his public and private positions are identical. Mr. Khalidi has said much the same of the candidate's stance."

"In countering the McCain attacks, the Obama campaign also cited a tangential link between Mr. McCain and Mr. Khalidi. Mr. McCain is chairman of the International Republican Institute, which gave grants in the 1990s to the Center for Palestine Research and Studies, of which Mr. Khalidi was a founder, to conduct surveys of Palestinians. The International Republican Institute's 1998 tax filing says it gave $448,000 to the Palestine group, money that originated with government grants to the Republican organization."

The Los Angeles Times writes, "Barack Obama's 30-minute campaign commercial Wednesday night was not merely a tactical decision to carpet-bomb millions of Americans in pursuit of a few thousand undecided voters who can dictate the outcome of the presidential campaign. Aired on seven network and cable stations, the ad served as a national get-out-the-vote organizing tool for Obama operatives. It offered even the swiftest channel-flipper the chance to see Obama looking presidential, helping to condition voters to that possibility. And once again it proved to John McCain, and everyone else, how Obama's deep pool of campaign cash has allowed him to rewrite the rules of the campaign."

The Washington Post's Tom Shales seemed to like the infomercial. "As political filmmaking, 'Barack Obama: American Stories' was an elegant combination of pictures, sounds, voices and music designed not so much to sell America on Barack Obama as to communicate a sensibility. The film conveyed feelings, not facts -- specifically, a simulation of how it would feel to live in an America with Barack Obama in the White House. The tone and texture recalled the 'morning in America' campaign film made on behalf of Ronald Reagan, a work designed to give the audience a sense of security and satisfaction; things are going to be all right."

More: "Although McCain was not seen during the half-hour, one could easily summon the contrasting image of the Republican while watching Obama. McCain has come across on television as relatively worried, whiny, fusty and falsely folksy. He brought bad news; he has come to epitomize and personify it. Obama brings you medication along with the list of symptoms; he has developed a great bedside, as well as fireside, manner… It was the easiest thing in the world, watching the skillfully edited hodgepodge put together by his campaign, to picture Obama as president. That's one thing the film was designed to do, especially for the doubters and those scared, 'undecided' voters out there."

The New York Post calls Obama's prime time half hour an "Inf-'O'-mercial" and has this mildly funny "As Seen on TV" mock ad with Obama pitching spray bottles of "Hope" and buckets of "Obama change."  
 
The New York Daily News calls it "Bamavision." (We kind of like "Barack-umentary" or the "Barack-block.") 
 
"Barack Obama wasn't selling tomato slicers or time-shares, but a star TV pitchman said the presidential hopeful's infomercial had a key element for success -- passion," the Daily News writes. "Infomercial king Matthew Lesko -- the wacky author of a string of books on how to get money from the government -- gave Obama's half-hour TV spot Wednesday night high marks."

The AP's Woodward: "Obama was less than upfront in his half-hour commercial Wednesday night about the costs of his programs and the crushing budget pressures he would face in office."

The New York Times writes up Bill Clinton stumping with Obama last night in Florida. "Six days before Election Day, the two men made their first joint campaign appearance of the season, striding onto the stage alone together. In the eyes of hopeful Democrats, it carried the air of a torch-passing – absent any of the bitterness from the long presidential primary – as they wore wide smiles and heaped praise onto one another. Mr. Clinton delivered a spirited argument for the Democratic ticket, offering four distinct reasons to support Mr. Obama on Election Day next week: his philosophy, his policies, his ability to make a decision and his ability to bring change to people's lives."

The Boston Globe reports on a woman who may be Obama's aunt. She works for the Boston Housing Authority and lives in South Boston, the paper says.

"A new ethics complaint has been filed against Sarah Palin, accusing the Alaska governor of abusing her power by charging the state when her children traveled with her," the AP reports. "The complaint alleges that the Republican vice presidential nominee used her official position as governor for personal gain, violating a statute of the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act. It follows a report by The Associated Press last week that Palin charged the state more than $21,000 for her three daughters' commercial flights, including events where they weren't invited, and later ordered their expense forms amended to specify official state business. In some cases, Palin also has charged the state for hotel rooms for the girls."

The Boston Globe on Palin's energy independence speech: "Despite Palin's attempt to distance McCain's energy policies from those of the Bush administration, their priorities are largely similar, especially more domestic production." 
 
Politico's Roger Simon asks this question: If Palin becomes the McCain campaign's scapegoat, what does that say about McCain since he picked her? "John McCain's campaign is looking for a scapegoat. It is looking for someone to blame if McCain loses on Tuesday. And it has decided on Sarah Palin. In recent days, a McCain 'adviser' told Dana Bash of CNN: 'She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone.'"

"Imagine not taking advice from the geniuses at the McCain campaign. What could Palin be thinking? Also, a "top McCain adviser" told Mike Allen of Politico that Palin is 'a whack job.' Maybe she is. But who chose to put this 'whack job' on the ticket? Wasn't it John McCain? And wasn't it his first presidential-level decision?"

Per NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger, a senior Palin aide yesterday lambasted ABC News and other media organizations for confusing the answers to two questions in the network's interview with the Alaska governor, and suggesting Palin was reflecting on presidential ambitions for 2012. Tucker Eskew, counselor to Palin's vice presidential campaign, said ABC News misconstrued Palin when it ran an article on its Web site saying she vowed to remain a political player in 2012 and was "not doing this for naught." Eskew said the comment was an answer to a follow-up question, and Palin was reflecting on her desire to continue despite gender bias and personal attacks.
 
He said Palin rejected the question about 2012, and said her ambitions were to seek re-election with McCain. But he said the article's headline, initially posted on ABCNews.com, was "terrifically misleading," suggesting Palin had said "I'm not doin' this for naught" when asked about running in four years.
 
Eskew singled out several news organizations he said compounded the mistake by covering the ABC interview erroneously, and suggested standards of fairness and accuracy had not been observed. "I would ask you all to reflect a little more deeply on this one, because what it says about our campaigns, our candidates, our politics and our press is … very troubling," he said, speaking to reporters on the back of Palin's plane. "And it is made all the more troubling when an irony of ironies abounds here. We were sitting down with ABC News for an interview about attacks on Gov. Palin and media distortions."

The New York Times' headline of Ted Stevens' return to Alaska: "Ted Stevens Receives a Hero's Welcome in Alaska." From the story: "Two days after he was convicted on seven felony counts in Washington, Senator Ted Stevens returned to Alaska on Wednesday night to begin a six-day campaign sprint, telling several hundred supporters at a rally here that he would be vindicated on appeal and asking them to elect him to a seventh term. 'I will represent Alaska in the senate while my lawyers pursue the appeals to clear my name,' Mr. Stevens said."

"Mr. Stevens made no reference to those demands on Wednesday, but he spent half of his eight-minute speech criticizing his conviction. He expressed regret but stopped short of apologizing, saying he had been guilty only of naïveté. 'Like most people, I'm not perfect,' Mr. Stevens said at one point, before referring to Mr. Allen. 'I naïvely trusted someone who I thought was an honest friend, when he was neither honest nor a friend. That naïve trust, however, has put all Alaskans and my family through an ordeal that I deeply regret.'"

From NBC's Don Teague
I've heard some things over the past few weeks that raise alarm bells in my head.  Among the most concerning, coming from members of the media and pundits, is that racism is the only way Barack Obama can lose the presidential election.

As a person who's worked in "red states" for much of my career, I feel compelled to offer an alternative view.

Specifically, I want to give you the perspective of my neighbor, Dan.  Yes, you can call him "Dan the neighbor."

"Dan the neighbor" is not a racist.  

For the record, I've known racists before.  Some of them are obvious.  Others drop hints about their views, hoping to find a like-minded person to share their fear or hatred with.   

"Dan the neighbor" is not one of them.

I know this because I've spent plenty of time with Dan over the three years that he's lived next door.  We've tossed a football back and forth over the fence and talked politics.  We've had beers and barbecue at each other's homes.  I've borrowed his tractor (this is Texas).  He has even let me drive his boat.  He's a good guy.

He's also a conservative.   He doesn't consider John McCain a perfect candidate, but there's a McCain/Palin sign in his yard.

Dan didn't vote for Walter Mondale. 
He didn't vote for Michael Dukakis. 
He didn't vote for Bill Clinton, twice. 
He didn't vote for Al Gore. 
He didn't vote for John Kerry.
He won't vote for Barack Obama.

For Dan, it has nothing to do with race, and everything to do with liberalism.  Clarence Thomas is his hero.  He would vote for Condoleezza Rice in a heartbeat.

But Obama?

"I think his ideas are bad for the country," he told me the other day.  "And since when do you prevent a recession by raising taxes?"

Dan is a professional, with a college degree.  His wife is an attorney, and a vegetarian.  They have a toddler and another baby on the way.  I don't know how much money they make, but the boat is really nice.

Dan is also former Marine.  He flies an American flag in his front yard.  He believes Obama's past promises to pull out of Iraq would have guaranteed defeat.  He believes Obama's refusal to acknowledge the success of "the surge" shows the kind of inflexibility that President Bush is often accused of.

Not that he thinks Bush is perfect.  He thinks the administration stuck to a plan for too long in Iraq that simply wasn't working.  And thinks former Defense Secretary Rumsfeld should have been replaced much sooner than he was. 

Dan is particularly miffed by the president's immigration policies, and what he considers a lack of fiscal responsibility by the Bush administration.  Allowing budget deficits to soar goes against Dan's conservative values.

"But seriously," he asked me, "is the answer to elect the most liberal guy in the senate to be president?  I don't get it."

Barack Obama's past associations matter to Dan.  He wonders why the media seems to pay scant attention to William Ayers, Tony Rezko, and Jeremiah Wright. 

Dan listens to Rush Limbaugh…every day.  Like millions of listeners of conservative talk radio, he worries about "the fairness doctrine."  He's convinced that President Obama, with a Democratic house and senate would quickly move to silence conservative opposition by re-instituting "the fairness doctrine," thus shutting down Rush, Sean Hannity and others.

"Dan the neighbor" loves Sarah Palin.  He doesn't understand why her limited experience should be an issue, when in his view she has as much experience as Obama…and he's at the top of the ticket.  The attacks against her, in his view, have been sexist and remarkably unfair.

And the list goes on:

Redistribution of wealth.
Gun Control.
Health care.
Supreme court nominations.

You can argue whether Dan's views on any of the above points are actually correct.  But there's no getting around the fact he shares those views with many others.

"Dan the Neighbor" is not going to vote for Barack Obama.  And race has nothing to do with it.

From NBC's Mark Murray
The Obama campaign has distributed a brief clip of tonight's 30-minute TV infomercial.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Is this a great country or what?

Politico breaks the news: "Move over Sanjaya and tell William Hung the news: Joe the Plumber is being pursued for a major record deal and could come out with a country album as early as Inauguration Day."

"'Joe' – aka Samuel Wurzelbacher, a Holland, Ohio, pipe-and-toilet man – just signed with a Nashville public relations and management firm to handle interview requests and media appearances, as well create new career opportunities, including a shift out of the plumbing trade into stage and studio performances."

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
TAMPA, Fla. -- McCain tried to shift the public conversation back to national security with a roundtable at the University of Tampa here today and a statement featuring some of his harshest language pointing out Obama's lack of security credentials.

"The question is whether this is a man who has what it takes to protect America from Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda, and other grave threats in the world," McCain said. "And he has given you no reason to answer in the affirmative."

Surrounding McCain during his statement were various admirals, generals, and national security bigwigs like former Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge and former Navy Secretary John Lehman. McCain used these advisers as examples of respected people who doubt Obama's ability to handle an international crisis.

"These statesmen and those who have joined me here today are supporting my candidacy, because we share many of the same convictions and the same assessment of the national security challenges before our country," McCain said. "And with good reason, they question whether my opponent in this election has the wisdom or judgment to serve as commander in chief."

Referencing Obama's initial opposition to the war in Iraq and his opposition to the troop surge strategy, McCain said that the current economic crisis was a "cloud" under which his opponent was hoping that Americans would "forget" his previous positions.

Although McCain acknowledged the seriousness of the current domestic crisis, he confidently proclaimed that the country would get through it. But on the other side, McCain predicted that America would find itself faced with the same international security challenges as it is today, and a Democratically controlled Washington would be ill-prepared.

"We're getting only a glimpse of what one-party rule would look like under Obama, Pelosi, and Reid," McCain said. "Apparently, it starts with lowering our defenses and raising our taxes. Our national security is dependent on our economic security, and the plans of a Democratic-dominated Washington would harm both... At least when European nations chose the path of higher taxes and cutting defense, they knew that their security would still be guaranteed by America. But if America takes the same path, who will guarantee our security?"

From MSNBC's Adam Verdugo
Sen. John Ensign, the head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the man in charge of keeping the Democrats from reaching a 60-seat majority, told Norah O'Donnell on MSNBC today that Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) should step down.
 
"Sen. Stevens should do the right thing and resign."
 
Sen. Ensign joins a list of high profile senate Republicans to call for Stevens' resignation. "The statesman-like thing for Sen. Stevens would be to resign," he continued. "I'd like to see a special election in the state of Alaska, so they can actually choose between a Republican and Democrat."
 
"This was unfortunate, obviously, timing."

From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger

BOWLING GREEN, Ohio -- At an event where Palin was joined by Joe the Plumber, the Republican vice-presidential candidate took up her running mate's attacks against Obama and the media Wednesday. She suggested, as McCain has, that the Los Angeles Times was withholding a videotape in which Obama attended a 2003 send off for Rashid Khalidi, a Columbia University professor and friend with past ties to the Palestinian Liberation Organization.

It's a story the Times reported on in April, which the McCain campaign is now pushing. The Obama campaign would point to a Huffington Post report that when McCain was the chairman of the International Republican Instutitute, it gave grants to Khalidi's Center for Palestine Research and Studies.

"It must be nice for a candidate to have major news organizations looking after his best interests like that," Palin said, charging that the newspaper was witholding the tape to aid Obama. "In this case, we have a newspaper willing to throw aside even the public's right to know in order to protect a candidate that its own editorial board has endorsed. And if there's a Pulitzer Prize category for excelling in kow-towing, then the L.A. Times, you're winning."

Palin attacked Obama on what she called his "assortment of friends from Chicago." She described Khalidi as "another radical professor from the neighborhood who spent a lot of time with Barack Obama going back several years." She referred to the Times' reporting about Obama having been at a party for Khalidi in 2003, where Khalidi described Israel as the perpetrator of terrorism.
This is what the Times wrote at the time, though: "At Khalidi's 2003 farewell party, for example, a young Palestinian American recited a poem accusing the Israeli government of terrorism in its treatment of Palestinians and sharply criticizing U.S. support of Israel. If Palestinians cannot secure their own land, she said, 'then you will never see a day of peace.' One speaker likened 'Zionist settlers on the West Bank' to Osama bin Laden, saying both had been 'blinded by ideology.'"

"Obama adopted a different tone in his comments and called for finding common ground. But his presence at such events, as he worked to build a political base in Chicago, has led some Palestinian leaders to believe that he might deal differently with the Middle East than either of his opponents for the White House."

Of Obama's role, the Times also wrote, "Speaking to the crowd, Obama reminisced about meals prepared by Khalidi's wife, Mona, and conversations that had challenged his thinking."

The Times has said it will not release the tape, because it was given to the newspaper under the condition that it not be released.

But at Palin's campaign event, it was the surprise appearance by Joe the Plumber that fired up the Bowling Green State University crowd.
 
"He's a fellow Alaskan, and he's a fellow military man who has served our country proudly," she said. "I'd like you to meet him. Please welcome Joe the Plumber!"

Joe Wurzelbacher was introduced as a special guest midway through Palin's speech, to a roaring ovation. A day after he campaigned on his own -- and received criticism for agreeing with comments suggesting Obama's election would mean "death to Israel" --  Wurzelbacher stood silently by Palin's side through the rest of her remarks, dressed in jeans and a checkered work shirt.

"All the pictures I've seen of him, I knew I'd like him, wearing his Carhartts and steel-toed boots," she said.

Wurzelbacher, who was never introduced by his real name, served as a prop to Palin's continued critique of Obama's tax plans. She suggested Obama would raise taxes on small businesses, stifling growth and making it more difficult for small outfits to hire new people and create jobs.

Palin said voters identify with Wurzelbacher, who asked Obama a question at his tax plan at a rally earlier this month. He officially endorsed McCain earlier this week.

"So Joe merely asked our opponent a simple, straightforward question, and he spoke for a lot of Americans," she said. "And the Obama campaign did not appreciate that. And since then, they've been investigating and attacking our friend Joe the Plumber."

*** UPDATE *** Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan emails this response to the Khalidi attack. "This is just another recycled, manufactured controversy from the McCain campaign to distract voters' attention from John McCain's lock-step support for George Bush's economic policies. Barack Obama has been clear and consistent on his support for Israel, and has been clear that Rasheed Khalidi is not an adviser to him or his campaign and that he does not share Khalidi's views. Instead of giving lectures on media bias, John McCain should answer why, under his own chairmanship, the International Republican Institute repeatedly funded an organization Khalidi founded, the Center for Palestine Research and Studies, over the course of many years."

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones

RALEIGH, N.C. -- At a rally here, Obama mocked his rival for linking his plan to end tax breaks for wealthy Americans and provide more tax relief for the middle class to "socialism."

"Because [McCain] knows that his economic theories don't work, he's spending these last few days calling me every name in the book," Obama said, referring to McCain's "socialist" charge. "I don't know what's next. By the end of the week, he'll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in kindergarten. I shared my, uh, peanut butter and jelly sandwich."

Video: Speaking in North Carolina, Barack Obama says John McCain is echoing George Bush's economic policies of tax breaks for the wealthy and corporations, and the privatization of social security.

The McCain campaign, which has consistently sought to paint Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal in ads and on the stump, sent out its own quip in response. "No one cares what Barack Obama does with his toys, but Americans do care that he wants to raise taxes, add a trillion dollars in new spending and redistribute your hard-earned paycheck as he sees fit," said spokesman Tucker Bounds.

In his speech today, Obama also sharpened his argument that he better understands the concerns of the middle class by employing a tool -- both literally and rhetorically -- that John McCain's campaign has taken up on the trail in recent weeks: Joe the Plumber.

"Whether you are Susie the Student or Nancy the Nurse, Tina the Teacher, or Carl the Construction Worker -- if my opponent is elected, you will be worse off four years from now than you are today," he said. "Let's cut through the negative ads and the phony attacks. Under John McCain, the middle class will watch wealth get favored over work, jobs get shipped overseas, the health care costs and college costs continue to go through the roof. North Carolina, we know that just won't do. Not this time."

The visit to Wake County, which George Bush won in the last two elections, marked the Democratic nominee's third trip to this red state this month alone. His campaign has made a point of encouraging early voting in states where it is possible. North Carolina's Board of Elections data show registered Democrats in the state outnumbered registered Republicans 2,842,234 to 1,992,361 as of today. Campaign data shows Democrats here are voting early at a higher rate than Republicans and at a higher rate than they did in the last election.

Today, Obama encouraged the 28,000 people who turned out to hear him speak to join a walk to early voting sites that was scheduled to take place after the event. He also told people they could register and vote today. And he tried to make sure his supporters were not confused by the state's ballot.

"This is important: When you do vote, you have to vote in two steps -- one for president, and one for the rest of the ticket," he explained. "If you vote for a straight ticket, you have not voted in the presidential election. You need to vote for president separately."

Obama has a busy day ahead of him. He'll campaign with Joe Biden in Sunrise, FL this afternoon and later with Bill Clinton in Kissimmee, FL, near Orlando. His 30-minute infomercial and an interview with The Daily Show's Jon Stewart also air tonight.

During this speech, Obama invoked Bill Clinton in talking about the economy, reminding the audience that incomes rose under the former president and saying he would have similar economic policies, while McCain would follow Bush policies that caused incomes to fall.

A funny moment came when Obama made a mistake in referencing a popular 1970s sitcom as he spoke about Social Security. He cited "Sanford and Son," but then said "I'm coming, Weezy," a reference to "The Jeffersons."

From NBC's Ron Allen

MELBOURNE, Fla. -- It was a surprisingly chilly morning in Ocala yesterday, where Biden was practically sprinting to the end of his speech at the Dancing Horses Farm.

"So, Get up. Get up!" Biden yells into the mic, his signature big finish, quoting his dad's advice when Joe Jr. met misfortune like getting knocked down on the football field or facing rejection by a girl.

Now, it's time for America to "Get up" the candidate proclaims, with ear-splitting volume, often while pounding the podium.

The press corps checks the time with anticipation. Biden clocks in under 15 minutes, perhaps 14:40, unofficially. That could be a record for his fastest speech of the fall campaign season. Exact times for some recent events are the subject of some dispute. Let's just say he's trying to talk to as many voters as possible down the home stretch.

And for the record the overnight temperature was listed at 36 degrees -- painfully disappointing, in fact shocking, for the shivering pack of reporters now following Biden from summer into autumn, who had been looking forward to a much warmer swing through the Sunshine State.
  
Biden is clearly in a hurry here. The staff had us on and off the bus, quickly moving from event to event. Police usher the motorcade along its way.

We are on a long, make that very long, three-day bus ride that today cuts diagonally through a somewhat Republican stretch of the state, from Ocala to Melbourne.

The message: "Now, I know the last time out, an awful lot of folks in this area put their faith in George Bush ... and we cannot afford four more years of the same policies they took a shot on four years ago, ladies and gentlemen."
 
There were four stops yesterday, the horse farm, a tiny campaign office too small for all of the small press corps to fit in and another ice cream and candy shop.  

This time he's in a retirement community, the nation's largest, and the scene of occasional golf cart traffic jams we are told. "The Villages" is near Lady Lake. Biden's visit is probably no coincidence. Sarah Palin campaigned here just after becoming the GOP VP nominee at their convention.
 
Finally, Biden touches down at a rally in a park just down the road from the "astronaut school,"  along the so-called "Space Coast," in Melbourne, near the Kennedy Space Center. 
   
Biden is moving and talking so fast, at one point he referred to his running mate as "Barack O--," No time for the -bama. His thoughts may have raced ahead of his mouth, while criticizing their opponents, "John and Sarah McCain." He recovered with a quick jab. "Well, they think alike!"
 
Why is Biden moving so fast?

"I don't have to tell anyone here that every single vote counts," he told a knowing crowd, recalling the hanging chads of 2000.

And what's more, the election of 2008, not just the campaign, is already in full swing here. Record numbers of Floridians are voting early. Some two million votes have been cast during the eight days the polls have been open, some 200,000 on one single day. So many, Gov. Charlie Crist, a Republican, has extended early voting to 12-hour days through Friday, 7am to 7pm.

Voters also can cast ballots on Saturday, and in some counties, even on Sunday. The Obama campaign expects and hopes turnout tops 75 percent. Voting is a big deal here.
  
Democrats believe early voting favors them, and even eliminates the edge Republicans usually have with absentee ballots.
  
Democrats also see another big edge in Florida, whenever they watch TV. Obama's eye-popping fundraising prowess has allowed him to outspend McCain by as much as four-to-one on ads lately. Topped off with tonight's 30-minute Obama campaign info-mercial.
 
All of that has, at the very least, forced McCain-Palin to spend time, money and scarce resources in what has been a pivotal state that the GOP really hopes and probably needs to win.

They, too, are campaigning hard in this state that has been kind to the GOP. The state's large veterans community, where McCain has roots, and its significant elderly and retiree population, are expected to help McCain here as well. The GOP also has a solid base of support in South Florida's Cuban-American communities.
 
However, in this election that variable has changed somewhat. Florida is experiencing a growing influx of new Latino immigrants, and growing generational differences within Cuban families now here more than half a century. The number of Latino Democrats is expected to top the number of Republicans statewide for the first time. 
  
Today, Team Obama takes a big step to try to nail things down here. Florida will host the first joint appearance by Bill Clinton and Obama. And, trying to take advantage of the changing demographics here, the campaign says the event will have a "Latin influence," and happen in Spanish as well as English.

Clinton is a popular and familiar figure with most Latino voters, one reason Hillary Clinton did so well in that community during the primaries. She, by the way, has been in Florida recently campaigning for Obama/Biden too. Latino voters are emerging as 2008's key swing demographic in other critical states like Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado as well.
 
Biden and Obama also have a rare joint rally Wednesday, yet another "get-out-the-vote," event. The last time they shared a stage some 35,000 people saw them in Detroit.
  
Meanwhile, Biden's final speech yesterday, at the event along the Space Coast, clocked in at around 17 minutes. Not a record, but not long ago 30 minutes and sometimes much more, was the meandering norm.

At one point Biden said, keeping his pace up, that if folks had time to come out to see him, they had time to go vote.

He shook a bunch of hands, posed for pictures, and then made his way behind the stage, and onto his bus, as the crowd waved Good Night.

Once again a chill wind was, like the senator, blowing through supposed-to-be balmy Florida, where voting turnout already is quite hot and heavy.

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli

JUPITER, Fla. -- As his three-day bus tour of the Sunshine State worked its way south, Joe Biden placed additional emphasis this morning on seniors issues and Israel, saying that the security of the latter can be best assured by restoring America's image abroad.

"I've worked with every prime minister of Israel from Golda Meir right through to the present prime minister," Biden said. "That's why Barack and I know, we know what the Israelis know and all our friends know. That is, the greater the respect for America, the stronger America is in the world, the more secure Israel and the rest of our friends are in the world."

The line was notable not just because of where it was delivered, but also because it came as the McCain campaign criticized the Los Angeles Times for withholding a video they say "could provide a clearer link between Barack Obama and Rashid Khalid," a Palestinian activist.

Biden also placed new emphasis today on Obama's plans for seniors and retirees, wondering along with the crowd of 2,000 what would have happened to Social Security if "Bush and McCain had succeeded" in privatization.

"Here's what Barack and I believe. We believe there should be no privatization of Social Security. No raising of the retirement age. And we believe … there should be no income taxes for seniors for who have an income of less than $50,000 a year," Biden said.

The Delaware senator spoke from a podium above the left field grass at Roger Dean Stadium, where the St. Louis Cardinals and Florida Marlins train in the baseball pre-season. Six days before election day, Biden said that "spring training's over," and he urged the audience to take advantage of early voting.

"I used to have a grandpop, when I'd leave the house he'd say, Joey, keep the faith," Biden said. "And my grandmother and now my mother would say, no, spread it. Well, we need some help spreading the faith, folks."

Does a commanding lead translate to the 'commander-in-chief question'?  In his latest blog, Luke Russert looks at numbers from the most recent NBC/WSJ poll that indicate that voters are still placing trust in John McCain as a leader in crisis even as Obama's approval ratings soar.

"These numbers tell us that people see John McCain over Barack Obama in the commander-in-chief role," he writes. "While Obama leads on the economy, easily as important an issue, swing voters in swing states may think about whom they see as commander-in-chief when they pull the lever."

Check out more here, at Luke's Off Air blog.

From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger

TOLEDO, Ohio -- Palin reframed her calls for energy independence today, suggesting investments in new domestic technologies were needed to reduce reliance on foreign countries that are "using energy as a weapon."

"In the worst cases, some of the most, the world's most oil-rich nations are also the most oppressive societies," she said in a policy address here at Xunlight Corporation, which produces solar panels. "And whether we like it or not, the money we pay, US dollars, going to pay for their oil only makes them more powerful and more oppressive."

Palin said oil wealth has allowed undemocratic countries to "crush dissent and to subjugate women, to oppress the people who live in these countries."

Palin has advocated for energy independence often on the campaign trail, most notably in her mantra to "drill, baby, drill" and "mine, baby, mine." She comes to the issue with personal experience, and spent considerable time outlining her work securing a gas pipeline in Alaska. In doing so, she knocked oil companies -- singling out ExxonMobil -- that she said were responsible for delays.

"They should have been competing to invest in a new means of delivering their product to market," Palin said. "They should have been competing for the right to tap into the hungry markets, flowing our resources into those hungry markets. And instead, they wanted a higher and higher price than any fair competition would yield, so they wouldn't build the line. They were holding out for more billions of dollars -- in public money."

She also targeted her vice presidential opponent, Biden, who she said voted against Alaska's first pipeline as a freshman senator.

"He kicked his career off, his political career, saying no to this piece of infrastructure up in Alaska that has safely flowed 15 billion barrels of US crude in hungry US markets," she said. "He started his career saying no to that domestic solution and it's been no ever since."

Palin noted recent drops in oil prices, but said they were due to the "market's expectation of a broad recession that would lower demand." And while Wednesday's address offered no new policy proposals, Palin reiterated that finding new solutions to energy issues -- which she said has been stifled for decades -- would be a priority for a McCain Administration.

"In Washington, we can view this period of lower prices as just one more chance to make excuses, embracing status quo, really doing nothing about it on the energy security problem that we've faced. And I think that we've heard enough excuses, and we've been lax for too long," she said. "Or we can view this opportunity as the time to finally confront the problem. And John McCain and I are so committed to confronting and fixing the problem that we face with our reliance on foreign sources of energy."

Palin expressed concerns about Russia's desires to control a pipeline in the Caucasus, and said Iran seeks to cut off nearly a fifth of the world's oil supplies. She also suggested terrorists could target oil facilities around the world.

"By relying upon oil from the Middle East, we not only provide wealth to the sponsors of terror, but we provide high-value targets to the terrorists themselves," she said. "Across the world these pipelines, refineries, transit routes, and terminals for the oil that we rely on. And Al Qaeda terrorists, they know where those are."

She said a McCain Administration would support new exploration of domestic oil and gas reserves, and continued to advocate for an "all of the above" approach to new energy sources, including wind, solar, and coal. She said the Republican administration would work to build 45 new nuclear reactors by 2030.

By contrast, she framed Obama and Biden as opposing pursuing new sources of energy because of environmental concerns, but said they have backed plans for other countries to go ahead with similar projects.

Palin also criticized Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens, who was convicted earlier this week of lying on Senate financial disclosure forms, framing him as part of the "good ol' boy network" she says she is eliminating in Alaska.

"They didn't want anybody to come in and disrupt the good things they had goin' there," she said. "But it was to the public's detriment what was going on. And as you may have seen in the news this week, Alaska's senior senator is not the first man to discover the hazards of getting too close to oil moneyed interests with agendas of their own."

From NBC's Carrie Dann

A week before the election, pundits are abuzz with speculation that Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole, once considered unbeatable in North Carolina, may be on her way to a defeat at the hands of well-funded newcomer Kay Hagan.  Things must be looking pretty tough... Check out this new ad from the Dole campaign, which slams Hagan for attending a September fundraiser with members of the "Godless America" PAC.  The spot highlights comments from members of the "secular" group, including one who proclaims, "There was no Jesus."

The ad concludes "What did Hagan promise in return?"

Hagan's team is calling for a cease-and-desist order, calling the spot "the nastiest, most misleading, negative ad of the campaign." 

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** In with the new… : A brand-new NBC/WSJ/MySpace poll illustrates not only McCain's challenge come Election Day, but also the challenge the Republican Party could face in future elections. In the poll, Obama enjoys a more than 2-to-1 advantage over McCain among first-time (read: 18-21 year olds) and lapsed voters, 69%-27%. These voters have a much more positive view of Obama (64%-27% fav/unfav rating) than average voters do (56%-33% fav/unfav in last week's NBC/WSJ survey). What's more, they have a much more negative view of McCain (29%-59%) and Palin (23%-54%) than average voters do. All of this suggests that a big turnout among these new and lapsed voters would benefit Obama on Election Day. The only question is: Will they turn out? In the poll, 66% say they are certain to vote -- but that's far less than the 90% of all voters who said that in last week's NBC/WSJ poll. Dem pollster Peter Hart compares this (potential) Obama advantage among young voters with the evangelical advantage Bush built in '04. Yet unlike Bush, Obama can count on this advantage in every state, not just in the handful of areas where evangelicals are concentrated. What does this mean? The young vote/new voter demographic could provide Obama a 3-5 point buffer with the rest of the electorate.

VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the up and down sides of tonight's Obama infomercial and the Democrats' attack ad against Sarah Palin.

*** … And out with the old? A very ominous sign for the Republican Party is how Democratic-leaning these new and lapsed voters are. Not only do they back Obama by a 69%-27 margin, they also prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress by a 2-to-1 margin, 66%-31%. And their views of President Bush? His fav/unfav among these voters is 14%-73%. Ouch. While Karl Rove had ambitious hopes of turning Bush's presidency into a permanent majority for the GOP, this poll suggests that Bush's lasting legacy could actually be turning off a new generation of voters. After all, consider what young voters who came of voting age during the past seven years might associate the GOP with -- the Iraq war, Hurricane Katrina, the current economy, various political scandals (Jack Abramoff, Ted Stevens, etc.), and Bush. Speaking of the president, the White House released his schedule from today until Sunday, and get this -- the sitting president of the United States will not be campaigning in the final week of the campaign. Amazing. In fact, as NBC's John Yang notes, Bush hasn't made a single public campaign appearance with a GOP candidate this cycle. He has raised money for them, some $150 million this cycle. But that's down from the $186 million he helped raise for the GOP in the 2006 cycle.

*** Obama's big day: While both presidential candidates have busy schedules, check out Obama's day. He holds a rally in North Carolina; stumps with Biden in Sunrise, FL; tapes an interview with Jon Stewart that will appear tonight; tapes an interview with ABC's Charlie Gibson that will run tomorrow; and then appears at an 11:00 pm ET rally in Orlando, FL with Bill Clinton. (Call it the "Barack and Bill Show." It's the first time these two have campaigned together, and on any other day this would be today's cable chatterer of the day.) Oh, and then there's that 30-minute TV ad buy the campaign will air tonight at 8:00 pm ET on NBC, CBS, FOX, MSNBC, Univision, BET, and TV One. The New York Times got a sneak peak of the buy, and the paper says that part of the time, Obama is speaking to the camera; at other times, the advertisement highlights everyday voters and their troubles. No one believes this 30-minute special is an automatic homerun. There's some risk here if it looks presumptuous or too much. Then again, when is the last time that Obama has flubbed a big speech?

*** "Not ready --yet": Meanwhile, the McCain campaign has a 30-second ad it'll broadcast nationally to respond to Obama's infomercial. One word in the ad jumps out at us, and it will at you, too -- "yet." It's an oddly positive term when it comes after the phrase "he's not ready." It implies to the viewer that, someday, Obama might be ready. And it reminds us of conversations we had a few months ago with various McCain partisans, who believed if they could convince voters that Obama would be president someday if he loses this year, then McCain could win. That word "yet" is aimed at those voters who want change, are tired of Bush, aren't thrilled with McCain these last few weeks, but aren't convinced Obama's ready. It may be too late to make the "McCain as transitional president" argument, but this is a fickle electorate.

*** Obama camp plays the Palin card: McCain, though, isn't the only one up with a new TV ad. The Obama camp has unveiled a new one that uses McCain's past quotes about his lack of understanding on economic issues. And it also appears to be the first Obama ad that brings up McCain's choice of Palin as his running mate. The script: "John McCain in his own words 'I'm going to be honest: I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated.' Wall Street Journal, 11/26/05. 'The issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should.' Boston Globe Political Intelligence, 12/18/07. 'I might have to rely on a vice president that I select" for expertise on economic issues.' GOP Debate, 11/28/07.His choice? (Shows a clip of Palin winking.) On November 4th, You Get to Make Yours." Now if history is any guide, attack ads on running mates usually don't work. But then again, Palin's no ordinary running mate.

*** Too close to call? Last night, the McCain campaign released a memo from its pollster, Bill McInturff, who argued that his polls show the race to be tightening. "The McCain campaign has made impressive strides over the last week of tracking. The campaign is functionally tied [Editor's Note: "functionally" is an interesting term, but we digress] across the battleground states, with our numbers IMPROVING sharply over the last four tracks… As other public polls begin to show Senator Obama dropping below 50% and the margin over McCain beginning to approach margin of error with a week left, all signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday." The fact is, McInturff doesn't make up poll numbers. The key to this election and understanding which polls are right and which ones are wrong have everything to do with projecting turnout. What percentage of the electorate will be under 30? What percentage will be African-American? If you know the answers to those two questions, you'll have a poll that's more likely to be correct. Some other interesting nuggets in his memo: McInturff believes turnout will surpass 130 million; that's actually a conservative estimate given that others believe the number will get closer to 140 million and possibly even 145 million. Also, McInturff believes something we've argued for some time: Obama's poll number will be his number in a given state; undecided voters will break for McCain. And it is this final point that does have McCain folks not throwing in the towel yet. While there might not be such a thing as the "Bradley Effect," there could be a "Wilder Effect." In Doug Wilder's race, he was at 50% in the final polls and that's basically what he got on Election Day. It was enough for victory, but undecideds dramatically moved against him.

*** Polls, polls, polls: By the way, here are some of the most recent battleground polls we've seen. New LA Times/Bloomberg surveys have Obama ahead among likely voters by seven points in Florida (50%-43%) and by nine points in Ohio (49%-40%). New Quinnipiac polls show McCain gaining ground in Florida (Obama ahead 47%-45%, down from 49%-44%), but Obama maintaining big leads in Ohio (51%-42%) and Pennsylvania (53%-41%). Finally, a slew of new state polls from the AP: Florida (Obama 45%-43%), Nevada (Obama 52%-40%), New Hampshire (Obama 55%-37%), North Carolina (Obama 48%-46%), Ohio (Obama 48%-41%), Pennsylvania (Obama 52%-40%), and Virginia (Obama 49%-42%).

*** The Mississippi Senate race: When he hit the road on a swing through the politically hot Southern United States, MSNBC.com's Tom Curry spotted an Obama ad during the 6:00 pm local news in Jackson, MS -- a state that hasn't given a Democrat a victory since 1982.  That may be surprising, until you take a look at the demographic groups that will help decide Mississippi's Senate race on November 4th. The contest pits an embattled Republican incumbent, Roger Wicker, against former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D), who's seen $7 million pumped into his once-unlikely campaign by the DSCC.  An Obama-fueled spike in turnout among African Americans -- who made up about 34% of the electorate in 2004 -- could mix with Musgrove's high name recognition to launch the Democrat to victory and the Senate one vote closer to 60. Wicker has a big lead in polls, but when you talk to strategists, the assumption is that huge African-American turnout will close things dramatically. One thing to keep in mind, though: There's no party ID on the ballot. If there are a bunch of new voters showing up who haven't followed the race but want to vote for the Democrat, they won't know which one is the Dem on the ballot; they'll need to know this information before the go into the polls. Day of information campaigns is going to prove potentially decisive for Musgrove.

*** The ballot prop in SD: South Dakota, not always the laser focus of the nation's political attention, caught a piece of the election spotlight in 2006, when it voted down a ballot initiative that would have banned almost all abortions. That measure, which did not include exceptions for rape and incest, was viewed as too restrictive by a majority of the state's voters, who rejected the initiative 56%-44%. This year, South Dakotans will take up a similar, though less restrictive, ballot initiative that includes more exceptions to an abortion ban but would still -- if passed -- likely prompt a Supreme Court showdown over one of the country's most controversial topics. 

*** Fun fact of the day: Dela-where? With McCain senior adviser Steve Schmidt, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe, and Dem running mate Joe Biden all attended the University of Delaware, it's worth pointing out that prior to 2000, the state was a bellwether. It voted for every winner from 1952 to 1996 -- tied for the longest streak of any state at the time.

*** On the trail: McCain spends his day in Florida, holding a "Joe the plumber" event in Miami, a national security roundtable in Tampa, and then another "Joe the plumber" event in Palm Beach. Obama attends rallies in Raleigh, NC, Sunrise, FL (joined by Biden), and Orlando, FL (joined by Bill Clinton). Biden separately campaigns in Jupiter, FL. Palin, in Ohio, delivers a policy speech on energy in Toledo before hitting rallies in Bowling Green, Chillicothe, and later Jeffersonville, IN. And Michelle Obama stumps in Rocky Mount, NC.

Countdown to Election Day 2008: 6 days
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 71 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 83 days
 
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New LA Times/Bloomberg polls show Obama ahead among likely voters by seven in Florida (50%-43%) and by nine in Ohio (49%-40%).

New Quinnipiac polls show McCain gaining ground in Florida (Obama ahead 47%-45%, down from 49%-44%), but maintaining big leads in Ohio (51%-42%) and Pennsylvania (53%-41%).

And the AP is out with a slew of state polls. "The polling shows Obama holding solid leads in Ohio (7 percentage points), Nevada (12 points), Colorado (9) and Virginia (7), all red states won by Bush that collectively offer 47 electoral votes. Sweeping those four — or putting together the right combination of two or three — would almost certainly make Obama president."

Also: "In addition, Obama is tied with McCain in North Carolina and Florida, according to the AP-GfK polling, two vote-rich states Bush carried in 2004. Obama is throwing his time and money into the Sunshine State, which has 27 votes, part of a strategy to create many routes to victory and push toward a landslide of 300 or more electoral votes. North Carolina has 15 votes."

The Washington Post runs the maybe-the-polls-are-wrong story.

ARIZONA: There's another Arizona poll showing a dead heat. "With less than a week until Election Day, McCain is leading his Democratic rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, by 2 points, 46 to 44, down from a 7-point lead a month ago and a double-digit lead this summer, according to a poll from Arizona State University."

COLORADO: Michelle Obama's visit to GOP stronghold Colorado Springs this week emphasizes the Obama sampling of the game plan successfully employed by Colorado's Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter and Sen. Ken Salazar. "Both Democrats made a point of visiting every one of the state's 64 counties and had a basic campaign blueprint: run up the winning margins in Democratic bastions like Denver, edge out their Republican rivals in critical counties, such as Adams and Jefferson, minimize losses in GOP strongholds such as El Paso County and the Western Slope, and hold their own in Arapahoe County, as well as in rural areas."

FLORIDA: Gov. Charlie Crist extended early voting hours. "Hoping to relieve overburdened early polling sites -- while trying to entice even more voters to cast ballots before Election Day -- Gov. Charlie Crist on Tuesday ordered the state's 67 supervisors of elections to extend hours at the polls," the Miami Herald reports.

INDIANA: Obama leads 48%-47% (within the four-point margin of error) in a South Bend Tribune/WSBT-TV poll out yesterday.

NEVADA: Today's update from Jon Ralston's must-read flash report: "The numbers in Washoe County continue to amaze: It's 51-33, Democrats, in early voting - 48-36 when mail ballots are added. A 12-percentage point lead in Washoe County? Add the Washoe and Clark numbers together and here's what you have: D - 52 percent, R-32 percent, Others-16 percent. Unless "Others" is having a love affair with John McCain, kiss Nevada goodbye, GOP."

NEW HAMPSHIRE: "Less than a week before Election Day, polls show McCain struggling -- even here, in the state that first fell in love with him nearly a decade ago and twice rescued his presidential ambitions from oblivion," the Boston Globe writes. "Exasperated and fearing a Democratic landslide, Republicans across the country have lashed out at McCain's campaign as too timid or too erratic. In New Hampshire, there is some discontent, too. A top campaign official publicly objected when the national campaign made phone calls attacking Democrat Barack Obama in the state, and former governor and longtime McCain supporter Walter Peterson said he fears the campaign's top brass has alienated too many New Hampshire independents by catering to social conservatives."

Obama holds a 54%-39% in New Hampshire, a Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll finds. "Financial distress has clearly driven voters from McCain to Obama, who was trailing his Republican rival by 2 percentage points in September -- a 17-point swing in just one month. Nearly half of those surveyed cited the economy and jobs as their top concerns, and they overwhelmingly saw Obama as the candidate best equipped to address them." Though, we've seen those New Hampshire polls before...
 
Meanwhile, the McCain campaign says the Republican nominee will visit the Granite State at least one more time in the next five days.

NORTH CAROLINA: Who's toxic now? The Atlantic's Ambinder noticed the conspicuous absence from McCain's recent rally of a Republican senator who's fighting for her political life.

PENNSYLVANIA: Read the press clippings today and you'd think the numbers in the Keystone State have closed dramatically. But have they? The Boston Globe: "It is the one reliably 'blue' state where McCain, the Republican nominee, believes he has a shot, as he looks to compensate for the unknown number of  'red' states that may slip from his grasp. Obama's advisers point out that almost every public poll over the last month shows Obama with a double-digit lead; if that holds, it would give the Illinois senator a far larger margin of victory than Al Gore or Senator John F. Kerry had in Pennsylvania in the last two elections."

"Still, Obama's repeated visits here - he held rallies in Chester, outside Philadelphia, yesterday, and in Pittsburgh the night before - suggest that his campaign is worried enough about the state, which he lost handily in the primary to Senator Hillary Clinton, to maintain a major presence this close to Election Day."