The latest New York Times/CBS poll finds Obama with a 13-point lead over McCain among likely voters, 52%-39%. "Underscoring his increasing strength in the final phase of the campaign, Mr. Obama led Mr. McCain among groups that voted for President Bush four years ago: those with incomes greater than $50,000 a year; married women; suburbanites and white Catholics. He is also competitive among white men, a group that has not voted for a Democrat over a Republican since 1972, when pollsters began surveying people after they voted." More: "Of potential concern for Mr. Obama's strategists, however, a third of voters surveyed say they know someone who does not support Mr. Obama because he is black."
A GW Battleground poll shows the race close. Obama is up just 44%-42%.
A new round of Allstate/Battleground polls shows Obama leading in Minnesota (50%-40%), Pennsylvania (51%-41%), and Wisconsin (53%-40%).
Charlie Cook writes in his most recent National Journal column, "For a political analyst, the normal posture this time of year is much like a baseball umpire's: hunched over, peering carefully as the ball approaches the plate, watching for whether it breaks left or right, whether it's coming in high or low. But, these days, we analysts are more like outfielders, watching in awe as a ball seems on a trajectory to not only clear the fence but very likely land in the upper deck. By every metric, Barack Obama's presidential campaign appears headed for the upper deck."
"Polls (both national and state-by-state), organization, money, and momentum are all running strongly in Obama's favor. At this point, one wonders whether Obama's winning margin could be greater than Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton's 5.6-point win over President George H.W. Bush in 1992, more than Bush's 7.7-point win over Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis in 1988, or more than Clinton's 8.5-point win over Sen. Bob Dole in 1996. Even higher on the landslide roster is California Gov. Ronald Reagan's 9.7-point victory over President Carter in 1980 and Gen. Dwight Eisenhower's 10.9-point win over Adlai Stevenson in 1952."
"Certainly, the 2008 presidential contest could reverse direction and result in victory for John McCain. But at this point, he would have to be the beneficiary of something quite dramatic for that to happen."
COLORADO: "McCain and his aides are convinced their "Joe the Plumber" tax criticisms are narrowing the gap against Democratic rival Barack Obama, explaining why the Republican nominee is making three campaign stops in Colorado despite cutting back his ads in the state and polls showing his opponent with a sizable lead. ... With early voting under way, McCain's campaign bought a total $305,550 worth of ads this week at KUSA-TV, KCNC-TV and KMGH-TV. That was down 46 percent from last week and down 56 percent from two weeks ago."
FLORIDA: Two new polls in Florida show Obama ahead but by different margins. A Sun-Sentinel poll puts the race within the margin of error, with Obama leading by just 49%-46%. "Over the past several weeks, independent and undecided voters have shifted toward Obama. But this week's poll also found that 13 percent of his supporters are likely to change their minds, a sign that he has not locked up Florida's electoral votes."Â
Â
On the other hand, a new Miami Herald poll shows Obama up by seven, 49%-42%. Good nugget: "Obama has tied McCain among voters over 65 years old. They backed McCain by seven more percentage points than Obama in last month's poll, which was taken just as news of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy precipitated the economic crisis."Â
Â
Don't miss this great story about Spanish-language television in the Miami Herald. "Univisión Communications, the media giant with two broadcast networks, a Web portal and multiple radio stations, expects to sell as much as $20 million in political ads during the second half of 2008 and around $37 million for the entire year, Chief Financial Officer Andrew Hobson told investors in a second-quarter conference call." And there's this: "Jorge Ramos, Univisión's news anchor, claims he has conducted more one-on-one interviews with the 2008 presidential candidates than any other anchor in the mainstream media. So far, he has interviewed Barack Obama twice and John McCain three times. Four years ago, he only got a couple minutes -- once -- with Democratic hopeful John Kerry."
INDIANA: A hot-off-the-presses Mason-Dixon poll shows McCain maintaining a lead in Indiana, 48%-43%.
Here's a big number of the day, per the Indy Star. "Obama's rally here Thursday was his 47th campaign event in Indiana this year. McCain has had two, and the last was on July 1."Â
MICHIGAN: Obama is up 51%-37% in an EPIC/MRA poll among likely voters.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: Hillary Clinton will stump next week in parts of New Hampshire.Â
Â
OHIO: Jay-Z and LeBron James headline a free Obama event in Cleveland Wednesday. (Could the down-in-the-polls McCain draw inspiration from the notoriously cocky rapper's lyric:Â "Difficult takes a day, impossible takes a week"?)Â
PENNSYLVANIA: The Baltimore Sun on the Keystone State: "The McCain campaign is not limiting its reach to the western part of the state. Republicans hope that Clinton's 9-point primary win means that Obama is vulnerable across the state, from Pittsburgh to Harrisburg to Scranton. Democrat John Kerry won Pennsylvania by 140,000 votes four years ago, so campaign operatives say that McCain needs to find on average only 2,000 more votes in each of 67 counties."Â
Â
Keep an eye on Scranton, advises the Philly Inquirer: "Democrats typically rely on big margins in Scranton, a former coal-mining town of 75,000, to help win statewide. Recent polls, and detailed interviews with voters here this week, suggest that anxiety over the economy has helped Obama convert skeptics. Many blame President Bush for their economic struggles and are reluctant to turn to another Republican. Still, there is a deep vein of support for McCain among voters who cite his experience, his record of military heroism, and his opposition to abortion rights. McCain strategists are counting on a silent majority of such backers to come from behind in Pennsylvania."Â Kerry won Lackawanna County, where Scranton is, 56%-42%.
A young McCain volunteer in Pittsburgh was mugged an assaulted -- apparently for her political views. "Police spokeswoman Diane Richard said the robber took $60 from [the woman], then became angry when he saw a McCain bumper sticker on the victim's car. The attacker then punched and kicked the victim, before using a dull knife to scratch the letter 'B' into her face, Richard said."
Per NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy, both McCain and Palin called the victim's family to express their concerns, and McCain called the victim directly. The campaign won't be addressing the issue much more as they say this is not their area because it is a crime and not a political event.
The Obama camp released this statement, "Our thoughts and prayers are with the young woman for her to make a speedy recovery, and we hope that the person who perpetrated this crime is swiftly apprehended and brought to justice."

