From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
Thirty-one reporters hauled their laptops, backpacks, tripods, and digital recorders off a press bus littered with pizza boxes and empty champagne bottles from the night before onto the windy tarmac at Des Moines airport this afternoon to board the first Obama press plane of the campaign season.
 
The novices shivered and posed for pictures, and the ones at the back of the line shouted at those in the front to hurry up and find their seats as the wind whipped around us.
 
Inside, the seating was arranged not alphabetically -- to my disappointment -- but by a campaign established order of the senator and his sister Amma (visiting him from Kenya) at the front, followed by campaign staffers and Secret Service, print reporters, your diligent campaign reporters/embeds, photographers and camera crews. Our names were printed on one by two inch labels and stuck onto the headrests.  
 
There were 50 seats in total on the Embraer Regional Jet ERJ, and the space was tight. The campaign reporters from the five networks -- who follow the candidate everyday and carry about thirty to forty pounds of gear with them -- found themselves in a painful struggle to squeeze their bulging backpacks under the seats in front of them. Packing lightly has never taken on more meaning. The crowded space meant it was also far more difficult to race to the front of the plane and stick a camera in the senator's face as he stopped to talk to a reporter about the Des Moines Register poll.
 
But no one could complain about the delightfully short ride to Sioux City, 200 miles covered in about 36 minutes. And beer, though no one was drinking, on the private charter was only a one dollar.
 
Once we landed and climbed onto yet another press bus and pulled away from the tarmac, we'll re-meet the plane in Omaha after an event in Council Bluffs, the little silver and green jet Express Jet sitting on the runway just needed to be named.
 
And NBC's Lee Cowan was quick to offer one up. "Air Hope," he dubbed it. 
 
I think it'll stick.

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
JOHNSTON, Iowa -- As Romney winds his way in and around Des Moines today at "house party huddles" with his supporters, it's Huckabee who is really on his mind.

"Elections are fun, but they are also serious things. And we face extraordinary challenges in our country today," Romney said at his first event in Ankeny this morning. And he made the same point again at the next stop. It's a poke in Huckabee's direction given his rival's last-minute decision not to run an attack ad on Romney yesterday -- but to still show it to the press -- which Romney called "confusing" and "puzzling" yesterday afternoon, and he noted instead that he's running a "serious campaign."

Asked if he thought Huckabee's bait-and-switch was dishonest, Romney said that "It does remind you a bit of person who stands up and says I'm not gonna call my opponent any names, but here's the names I'd call him if I were gonna call him names. And what he did yesterday didn't fool the media, and I don't think it'll fool the people of Iowa, either."

But it's not just campaign tactics that have Romney counterpunching Huckabee. In fact, he opened a press conference this morning with his disappointment in Huckabee for suggesting that President Bush lacks depth in national foreign policy knowledge. "The president has kept us safe over these last six years and is extraordinarily well-versed in matters of foreign policy," he said. He added, "I'm not sure whether Gov. Huckabee did the attack as a joke, but this is not a time to be mocking our president. And it was I think in bad taste."

Like he's done with Giuliani and McCain, he tied Huckabee to Democrats by saying, "This is the kind of stuff you expect of the Democrats, but it's certainly not something you'd expect of a presidential contender on the Republican side."

Romney has said repeatedly that he doesn't want to make predictions, but he's still pretty certain that he's going to finish first or second in the Hawkeye State's caucuses. With the news of three new state polls out this morning that have him either ahead, behind or tied with Huckabee for the top spot, he offered only: "It just points out that this one is just too close to call, and I think it's going to get decided on Thursday in a way that will probably surprise all of us."

And while Huckabee was off Sunday shooting the ad that he ultimately halted, Romney has been barnstorming the state -- he had five stops on that day, with six each on the preceding two days. He's already held three jam-packed house parties today and has another four to go.

Beyond Iowa, Huckabee may have a hard time competing with Romney as a consequence of campaign funds, which Romney has a surplus of due to his personal wealth. And asked today if had donated again this quarter, he said, "I'm sure I made some additional contribution." 

From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
AMES, Iowa -- In his first event after the final Des Moines Register poll showed Edwards in a close third behind Obama and Clinton, he told a standing-room-only crowd that his campaign is picking up momentum two days before the caucus.

"You know, there's so much energy and excitement in the campaign. You know, I don't need a poll to tell me that we're moving and we're moving every single day, and we're moving in the right direction in this campaign."

After the poll came out, Edwards' campaign released what it called "guidance" on the results: The poll was conducted over a holiday weekend; it included a disproportionate percentage of first-time caucus-goers; and it asserted that a high percentage of Republicans and independents will caucus as Democrats.

Other polls have shown that Edwards is favored as a second choice among Democratic caucus-goers, important because supporters of candidates that don't make a 15% threshold can redistribute to stronger candidates. Edwards addressed that in response to a question from a reporter after the Ames event: "I am the strongest candidate for second choice among caucus-goers, and I think what'll move 'em is this very personal passionate message of ending corporate greed and standing up for their children and grandchildren. Period. I mean, I think that's what they're responding to. I had people come up to me after this event today saying they came in for Sen. Clinton, Sen. Obama, and now they're for me. They just have to hear it."

The event at an Iowa State University ballroom was the first stop in Edwards' 36-hour campaign through Iowa. The former North Carolina senator has scheduled 16 stops starting at noon today and ending with a rally featuring John Mellencamp in Des Moines tomorrow night. Edwards hopes to highlight his economic policies throughout the trip.

*** UPDATE *** Later in the evening, the Edwards campaign touted a new Iowa poll that showed them in first place after second-choice support is reallocated. Per the Insider/Advantage survey, Clinton leads Edwards and Obama, 30%-29%-22%. But when second-choicers are realigned, it is Edwards 41%, Clinton 34%, and Obama 25%.

From NBC's Mark Murray
DES MOINES, Iowa -- Four years ago, this reporter covered a longtime Democratic US senator from the Northeast named Joe -- Lieberman -- as he knocked on doors a day or two before the New Hampshire primary. Supporters and aides chanted, "Go, Joe, go" as he moved from house to house.

There was just one catch, though: From memory, the number of TV cameras and press was larger than the Lieberman supporters following their candidate, and they had a hard time finding Lieberman voters who would come to the door.

Today, another longtime Democratic senator from the Northeast named Joe -- Biden --who's running in the middle of the pack of his party's presidential field walked into to a popular downtown brewpub here, and the place was packed with a few hundred supporters. (The campaign later put the number at more than 500.)

"We want Joe!" the crowd chanted as the candidate entered the restaurant. "We want Joe! We want Joe!"

"What a great crowd. God love ya," Biden told the audience. "Good morning, Des Moines. Holy mackerel!" He then joked that if someone had told his grandfather that -- many years later -- his grandson, on New Years Day, would be in a bar packed with people who were all sober, he would have replied that that person was crazy.

Comparing Biden's and Lieberman's crowds isn't entirely fair -- one, after all, is running in the first contest here in Iowa, while the other put all of his chips in the second -- the difference does underscore the enthusiasm that's surrounding all the Democratic candidates running for president, front-runners or not. Indeed, as we said earlier today, someone like Biden is getting Romney-sized crowds.

In his speech, Biden addressed the polls that have Clinton, Edwards, and Obama in the lead. "The first and only poll that counts is Thursday night," he said, before talking about health care, education, global warming, and his plan for Iraq. And then when talking about Pakistan, he made a crack at Clinton's incorrect statement that Pervez Musharraf is on the ballot.

At the end of his speech, Biden remarked how voters and political analysts are boiling down the Democratic race to a contest of change versus experience. "It is so much more than that," he said. "If it is about experience, I win," adding that he's also been involved in plenty of change (citing his work on the Violence Against Women Act). "It is not about change versus experience. It is about action."

And, repeating an argument that Clinton likes to make, Biden said it's important to have a president who's ready from Day One. "I am ready to lead this country," he said.

From NBC's Mark Murray and Lauren Appelbaum
...if he doesn't meet the 15% threshold in Thursday's Iowa caucuses. Kucinich made a similar endorsement of Edwards back in 2004, and that (among many other things) helped Edwards finish second in Iowa that year. "This is obviously an 'Iowa-only' recommendation, as Sen. Obama and I are competing in the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday where I want to be the first choice of New Hampshire voters," Kucinich said in a statement."

"I hope Iowans will caucus for me as their first choice this Thursday, because of my singular positions on the war, on health care, and trade. This is an opportunity for people to stand up for themselves. But in those caucus locations where my support doesn't reach the necessary threshold, I strongly encourage all of my supporters to make Barack Obama their second choice. Sen. Obama and I have one thing in common: Change."

*** UPDATE *** Just several minutes before we received this statement, NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan received this one from Obama's New Hampshire spokesman: "The voters of New Hampshire deserve to hear all the Democratic candidates' views on who can best lead America in a fundamentally new direction, and that's why I urge these networks to allow full participation in this week's debate." As it has been reported, Kucinich -- due to ABC's requirements of either finishing in the top four in Iowa or receiving 5% in NH and national polls -- will likely be excluded from this weekend's New Hampshire debate.

*** UPDATE II *** And now Obama has issued this statement: "I have a lot of respect for Congressman Kucinich, and I'm honored that he has done this because we both believe deeply in the need for fundamental change."

More: "He and I have been fighting for a number of the same priorities -- including an end to the war in Iraq that we both opposed from the start, reforming Washington and creating a better life for America's working families. I encourage all Iowans to take part in the caucuses this Thursday – not because it will be good for any one candidate, but because it will be good for our party and the future of our country."

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
AMES, Iowa -- Clinton kicked off 2008 with a long, rallying speech, beginning with the kind of energetic, straight-out-of-the-pulpit shout and response we haven't seen from her very often on the campaign trail.

In recent days, her events have begun with a round of Hillary trivia and T-shirt tossing to rev up the crowd. Today, when the senator took the stage she wished everyone a Happy New Year and then posed a series of questions.

"After seven long years of George Bush and Dick Cheney, starting Thursday night, we are taking our country back and you all are gonna lead the way," Clinton said.

"Are you ready for change?" she asked a crowd that included several of the biggest names in media punditry. She went on to list the many things she would change, ending the war in Iraq, bringing troops home, ending dependence on foreign oil. The crowd played along, shouting "Yes" after each question.

"This is the most important caucus that I think we've had in America as long as I can remember because you truly are going to start the process of picking a president," she said.

Clinton hit all her major points in the 45-minute speech, while sprinkling in jokes about Bush and Cheney. She made sure not to mention any of her rivals, while repeating her argument that you have to work "really, really hard" for change, rather than merely demanding or hoping for it.

She told people of all parties that it mattered whether they participated in the caucus and she had a message for undecideds and first timers.

"I hope that as the next 48 hours unfolds, those of you who are still deciding, those of you who have never caucused before decide that you want to be part of taking our country back," Clinton said.

She closed by reminding voters she had stood up to the Republican attack machine.

"I am still here, still standing, still fighting," she said, her voice rising above the applause.

Then she did take questions, but only from the audience.

After the speech, Clinton stopped by the overflow room next door, where she was greeted by a woman who said she'd been a Republican for 30 years but was supporting her and by a young man who said he'd be caucusing for the first time and doing it for her. (State director Teresa Vilmain was right on her heels, making sure these two supporters knew where to go on caucus night.)

Today's tour will take the senator from Ames central Iowa to Sioux City and Council Bluffs on the western border to Iowa City in the east.

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa -- After a crazy New Year's Eve filled with demonstrations and pulled advertisements, Huckabee started 2008 on the campaign trail again with his first plane trip across Iowa with the press in tow. This morning he spoke at a Pizza Ranch on the western edge of the state before flying here for some Razorbacks football and an afternoon rally.

This morning Huckabee stuck to his pledge from yesterday's news conference and avoided any negative attacks on Romney. He referred to the attacks made against him, but used them as an example of how he does not want to run his campaign. In the places where earlier in the week Huckabee might have swung back at Romney, he talked about a plethora of issues, including social security, infrastructure repair and the economy.

Any negative coverage of yesterday's events didn't seem to affect Huckabee's crowds. The Pizza Ranch was filled with upwards of 150 people in a room more than double the size of the one that Huckabee visited on his last trip to the Pizza Ranch in Sergeant Bluff.

In trying to convince his supporters to pull all the stops in getting out the vote on Thursday, Huckabee's light-hearted pleas for suppressing his votes for his opponents went a little farther than usual.

"People wonder, do I believe in the resurrection?" Huckabee said. "Of course I do. Dead people vote in every election we have in Arkansas. Resurrection is real to us. You don't even have to go to church to believe it. Just go to the polls and all of these people are dead. You think I am kidding?"

From NBC's Robert Windrem
A senior Pakistani official tells NBC News that parliamentary elections have been postponed until the second half of February. The specific date will be announced Wednesday night in a nationwide address by President Pervez Musharraf.

The elections had been scheduled for a week from today, but after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the national election commission decided to postpone them. The New York Times is also reporting that the elections have been postponed to February, but did not provide a date. The Pakistani official said the date will no doubt be later in February rather than earlier since a Shia holiday would prevent any earlier scheduling.

*** UPDATE *** NBC Pakistan has spoken by telephone with two doctors who attended Benazir Bhutto when she arrived at the Rawalpindi General Hospital.  The doctors told NBC News that they felt great pressure from government officials not to discuss in detail the cause of death. The doctors also reported that key documents were removed from their control.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
McCain turns the negativity way up against Romney in a new 30-second terror-image laden Web video. The 30-second video begins with images of terrorism from around the world -- car bombings, sirens, a body being dragged through the streets, masked men with guns pointed skyward. All over ominous piano music as it then dissolves into an image of Romney speaking.

"Mitt Romney says the next president doesn't need foreign policy experience," an announcer says, before an audible yet distance boom. "John McCain for president," the announcer continues, before McCain gives his approval over his photo on screen.

This video, called "Experience," is no soft negative; it is harsh and almost reminiscent of the "Daisy" ad, though not nearly as dramatic.

[YouTube:bce2rev5mq8]

*** UPDATE *** The Romney campaign responds: "Governor Romney has earned the support of grassroots Republicans across the country because he is the candidate offering the most promising vision for our nation's future.  He is bringing together national security conservatives who agree that if we are to confront the threat posed by radical Jihadists around the globe, we need a stronger military and an aggressive plan to destroy the roots of terrorism. Governor Romney's strength of purpose on national security and foreign policy is one built on the belief that America's future requires that we lead the world in defending the principles of liberty and freedom."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Trying to play on a strength -- his experience in business --Romney is up with an ad in Michigan focusing on the economy and that America's growth is lagging behind that of China, the "Asian Tiger."

[YouTube:EfV1tN-B4Z4] 

Instead of images of American economic woes or areas hurt by jobs losses, the ad is polished, fast-moving, optimistic -- the feel of Wall Street. (A ticker even appears at one point.) Romney vows to "level the playing field, lower taxes and invest in research and innovation, so that American companies can compete and win in the global marketplace and create jobs here.

"America must remain the world's economic superpower."

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
In a "P.S" message to supporters, Iowa state director Paul Tewes announced that Obama will also air a two-minute message to voters on Wednesday night before the caucuses.

Clinton has already announced she will be doing a two-minute closing argument to voters right after their evening newscast. Edwards announced today he is airing 60-second ads during newscasts tomorrow and Thursday.

Will the candidates go back-to-back-to-back? The Obama campaign is staying tight-lipped on releasing any more details.

Tewes Message:
P.S. -- This Wednesday, the night before the caucuses, we'll be airing a two-minute message from Senator Obama on TV stations across Iowa.

Be sure to watch during your local evening news broadcast: Des Moines

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
With exactly a week to go until New Hampshire, McCain has pulled ahead of Romney and Clinton has opened back up a double-digit lead in New Hampshire, according to a 7News/Suffolk University poll.

McCain gained 12 points since a month ago in the same survey to vault ahead of Romney 31%-25%. Romney had led in the December Suffolk poll 31%-19% over McCain. Giuliani is third with 14%, a three-point drop from 17%.

A month ago, Clinton led Obama by 7 points (33%-26%), but now the poll shows her with a whopping 36%-22% lead. Apparently, Clinton has peeled away some of those undecideds from a month ago as that number dropped from 19% to just 12% this month. Edwards comes in third with 14%. (He had 15% in December.)

The Republican numbers: McCain 31%, Romney 25%, Giuliani 14%, Huckabee 9%.

The Democratic numbers: Clinton 36%, Obama 22%, Edwards 14%.

The poll was conducted from Dec. 27 to Dec. 31 and has a margin of error for each party subsample of 300 respondents of +/- 5.65%.

Several other polls have shown a closing between McCain and Romney as well as Clinton and Obama in the Granite State.

"This poll kicks off a series of daily New Hampshire tracking polls to be conducted by 7NEWS/Suffolk University," according to a release made available to NBC News. "Each poll will consider 250 likely Democratic and Republican primary voters statewide each day.  A two-day rolling average of 500 Democrats and 500 Republicans will be reported every morning at 6:30 a.m. on '7NEWS Today in New England.'"

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Edwards will run a 60-second closing ad tomorrow and Thursday during the network evening news programs on local affiliates in Iowa. It features a laid-off Iowa Maytag employee -- Doug Bishop, who at points chokes up during an introductory speech -- laying out the case for Edwards, that the candidate looked his 7-year-old son in the eye and said, "I'm gonna keep fighin for your daddy's job. I promise you that.'

"You know that stuff sticks with you," Bishop says, "That's the kind of things we need in a leader in this country. Not somebody that's going to go to a big fundraiser and says write me a check for $2,300, and I'll let you know you have my support." Bishop later says, "I'm gonna do my best to make sure that my children aren't the first generation of Americans that I can't look them in the eye and say you're gonna have a better life than I had."

[YouTube:hJDFJna96sM] 

The ad effectively summizes Edwards' strategy and message, as he has courted and shown support among stalwart, blue-collar Democrats.

Edwards is also running a full page ad in today's Des Moines Register featuring Bishop.

From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
In an effort to remind journalists of what they were reporting four years ago, Edwards' campaign yesterday released a list of quotes from national and local press in 2004 praising the stature of Howard Dean's organization and fundraising prowess while downplaying eventual nominee, John Kerry, in his come-from-behind win in Iowa.

The implications are obvious. In what was almost a rite of passage for reporters covering the Edwards campaign, over the months leading up to the caucus one after another has asked the former North Carolina senator about his place in the Iowa polls, always just a step behind his two rivals but usually within the margin of error.

He consistently reminded them of what he called Howard Dean's inevitable status in the last months of 2003. As Dean's lead crumbled, Kerry -- and Edwards -- took off.

In the New Year's Eve release, the campaign quotes from a variety of mostly local newspapers addressing "early primary state organization" and "early state TV ads."

The first came from Canada's National Post on Jan. 29, 2004: "Even after the bad publicity surrounding the now-infamous 'scream' speech in Iowa, Mr. Dean raised more money than any other Democratic candidate in the past week. He still has a larger national campaign organization and offices in more states than any of his rivals, including Mr. Kerry."

An answering quote comes from the Concord Monitor's Jan. 23, 2004, edition: "U.S. Sen. John Kerry may be riding high in New Hampshire, but if he stumbles here, he could have trouble in the next round of primaries. Kerry has little ground organization in five of the seven states that vote on Feb. 3, according to spokesmen for their state Democratic parties."

See the full text of the release below:
While Senators Clinton and Obama pursue an endless money chase, we thought this comparison might be helpful.

DEAN
KERRY
Early Primary State Organization

"Even after the bad publicity surrounding the now-infamous 'scream' speech in Iowa, Mr. Dean raised more money than any other Democratic candidate in the past week. He still has a larger national campaign organization and offices in more states than any of his rivals, including Mr. Kerry." [National Post , 1/29/04]

"[Dean Campaign Advisor Tim] Kraft said Dean's campaign machine is running nationwide, with steering committees in 50 states and staff in 25 states. [Albuquerque Journal, 1/20/04]"

Headline: After Tuesday, a big challenge for Kerry So far, his presence in Feb. 3 states is small

"U.S. Sen. John Kerry may be riding high in New Hampshire, but if he stumbles here, he could have trouble in the next round of primaries. Kerry has little ground organization in five of the seven states that vote on Feb. 3, according to spokesmen for their state Democratic parties." [Concord Monitor, 1/23/04]

"Even outside New Hampshire, where the Kerry campaign has a skeletal organization in the handful of primaries Feb. 3, things are going his way..." [Massachusetts Telegram and Gazette, 1/24/04]

"They also must look beyond New Hampshire to Feb. 3, when seven states hold contests from South Carolina to Arizona and as far north as Delaware. That next stage poses a problem for Kerry, who pulled staff out of the Feb. 3 states to save his sagging campaign in Iowa." [The Star-Ledger, 1/22/04]

Early State TV Ads
"Only Dean is currently positioned to withstand setbacks because he has the resources to go forward. He has organizations in every state with an early primary and has been running television advertisements in many of them." [Chicago Tribune, 1/20/04]

"[Kerry] also had money problems, which kept his ads off TV while Gen. Wesley Clark, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, Dean and Lieberman spent millions of dollars in the seven [February 3rd] states...'The calendar moves so fast, and there's so many states coming,' Trippi said. 'We have more money than all those folks, but we don't have more than all of them combined.'" [The Star-Ledger, 1/22/04]

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
Still two days away from the Iowa caucuses, Romney today released his closing ad in New Hampshire.

[YouTube:GKrdDad3Pk4]

It's an overtly positive message, but it's a veiled swipe at McCain. "No one votes for yesterday. We vote for tomorrow. Every election is about the future," he starts out in the spot.

And the ad carries many of the same lines that he's using in his trimmed down stump speech. One of those is: "In the next 10 years, we'll see more progress, more change than the world has seen in the last 10 centuries."

More details to come on a new ad about to launch in Michigan.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
DES MOINES, IA -- So what do we think of the new Des Moines Register poll, which shows Obama leading Clinton and Edwards, 32%-25%-24%? No matter how you slice it, it provides a definite momentum boost for the Obama folks; it's the equivalent of receiving the paper's endorsement (as Clinton actually did a couple of weeks ago). Perhaps most important of all, for those Iowans who like Obama but don't think he can win, the poll is a validator of sorts. That said, the Clinton and Edwards campaigns are taking issue with the survey, and we'd do the same thing if we were in their shoes. In the poll, a "whopping" 40% identified themselves as independents and another 5% said they were Republicans. Polling the Iowa caucuses has always been difficult, because it's hard gauge who, exactly, will turn out. The Register, however, has always been considered the "gold standard" of Iowa polls, and it got it right in 2004. But this time, the Register's pollster is definitely betting on the Obama turnout model. Do note that Yepsen seems a bit skeptical about the numbers.

*** The GOP numbers: Our recent MSNBC/McClatchy poll of Iowa had Huckabee down and Romney back in the lead. But the Des Moines Register has Huckabee ahead of Romney, 32%-26% -- followed by McCain at 13%, Paul and Thompson at 9%, and Giuliani at 5%. However, Huckabee probably can take little solace in the numbers simply because the poll was conducted before yesterday's disastrous press conference (more on that later). By the way, the poll also indicates that the possibility of Paul topping two major candidates -- Rudy and Thompson -- is very real. And if that happens, what does it mean? Can Giuliani spin out of finishing behind Paul? It's a symbol that some in the media may use to hit Giuliani for his late-state strategy.

*** What the Huck? Speaking of Huckabee, what was he thinking yesterday? That, at least, seems to be the consensus among the chattering class that attended yesterday's bizarre press conference, in which he announced that he wasn't going to run a negative TV ad against Romney, but showed it to the press anyway. The real damage yesterday's episode could do to Huckabee is damage his brand. Part of the reason for his rise was the fact he wasn't acting like a traditional politician. Yesterday's stunt seemed like a trick that a cynical politician performs. That said, as the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder notes, Iowa TV is being far kinder to Huck's presser than the national media are.

*** The enthusiasm gap: Yesterday, we spent some time with the so-called second tier on the Dem side. The most striking thing: the crowd sizes. Biden and Richardson seem to get similar crowds as the GOP front-runners. It's a telling enthusiasm measuring stick that Biden can get Romney crowds. Also, the folks we talked to at Biden seem to be looking toward "experience" as their reason to support him. And consequently, it's hard to imagine that Biden folks would then decide to go with the least experienced front-runner, right?  As for Richardson, his supporters seem to be into change more than experience. These anecdotes, of course, could be meaningless but we pass along nonetheless…

*** On the trail: Biden gives speeches in Des Moines, Indianola, Knoxville, and Davenport; Clinton campaigns in Ames, Sioux City, Council Bluffs, and Iowa City; Dodd hits Clinton, Davenport, Cedar Rapids, and Marshallton; Edwards stumps in Ames, Fort Dodge, and Des Moines; Giuliani is down in New York City; Huckabee campaigns in Cedar Rapids and Des Moines, where he holds a rally with Chuck Norris; Obama is in Des Moines; Council Bluffs; Sioux City, and Dubuque; Romney hits several house parties in (among other places) Ankeny, Johnston, Clive, and Ames. Elsewhere, McCain campaigns in New Hampshire. 

Countdown to Iowa: 2 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 7 days
Countdown to Michigan: 14 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 18 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 25 days
Countdown to Florida: 28 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 35 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 308 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 385 days

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"Obama widens lead over Clinton" is the headline in the Des Moines Register regarding its latest poll. The numbers: Obama 32%, Clinton 25%, Edwards 24%, Richardson 6%, Biden 4%. "Roughly a third of likely caucusgoers say they could be persuaded to choose someone else before Thursday evening," the Register writes.

More: "The poll also reveals a widening gap between the three-way contest for the lead and the remaining candidates. No other Democrat received support from more than 6 percent of likely caucusgoers. The findings mark the largest lead of any of the Democratic candidates in the Register's poll all year, underscoring what has been a hard-fought battle among the three well-organized Iowa frontrunners."

On the Republican side, Huckabee maintains a 32%-26% lead over Romney. McCain is third with 13%, and Thompson and Paul follow at 9%; Giuliani sits at 5%. The poll "shows a resurgent Arizona Sen. John McCain grabbing third place in the Republican race for the first-in-the-nation caucuses," the Register writes. 

The Des Moines Register's Yepsen notes, "A lot of caucus-goers are first-timers. A whopping 60 percent of the Democrats say this would be their first time at a caucus. Some 40 percent of the Republicans say that." Also, "Some 40 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they are independents, and another 5 percent say they are Republicans. …Put another way, 54 percent of the Democratic caucus-goers say they're Democrats. In 2004, it was 80 percent. That will raise some eyebrows among party pros."

The Clinton campaign also points out that the poll "shows that among Democrats, Clinton leads 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. As Register columnist David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls."

But the Des Moines isn't the only media organization out with a new Iowa poll today. A CNN/Opinion Research survey had it Clinton 33%, Obama 31%, and Edwards 22%. The good news for the Clinton folks is that this poll shows them up; the bad news for the Edwards folks is that it confirms the Register's findings that the former North Carolina senator is in third.

On the GOP side, it's Romney 31%, Huckabee 28%, Thompson 13%, and McCain 10%.

The New York Times' Nagourney asks a question we had been thinking: What happens if there is not a winner on Caucus Night? "[A]mid all the endless permutations of outcomes that are being discussed - can Mrs. Clinton, the putative front-runner, survive a third-place finish, or Mr. Edwards a second-place one? - aides are beginning to grapple with the frustrating possibility that all the time, money and political skill invested here might prove to be for naught when it comes to identifying the candidate to beat in the primaries and winnowing the top tier… Rather than clarify the state of play and consolidate this crowded field a bit, an outcome like that would almost certainly muddle things further and potentially extend the time before Democrats know their nominee."

It's not said in this piece, but the candidate who probably can't survive an indecisive result: Edwards.

Covering the final day of campaigning in 2007, the New York Times says that Clinton attacked her rivals' arguments, though she did not use their names. She said that Mr. Edwards's angry-sounding salvos against 'special interests' were 'great applause lines and speeches, and people get really excited, because we all know that the power has shifted way too much to the wealthy and well connected.' 'I've taken on the drug companies,' Mrs. Clinton added. 'I've taken on the health insurance companies; I've taken on the oil companies, and I intend to keep doing it.'"

BIDEN: The Des Moines Register profiles Biden. "Despite consistent single-digit poll numbers, Biden supporters, or 'Bidenistas' as [House Leader Kevin] McCarthy has dubbed them, are relying on the support of serious Democrats who are guaranteed to caucus on Thursday."

CLINTON: The campaign announced a mind-boggling number last night: It has raised more than $100 million for the year. It was unclear, however, how much of that amount is primary money vs. general election money. The Washington Post reports that Obama also surpassed the $100 million marker. At this point, though, it isn't the "raised" number that we care about -- it's the spent...

The candidate picked up an endorsement yesterday from Sen. Maria Cantwell (D). It was Clinton's 10th nod from a sitting US senator; Obama, by comparison has just two.

DODD: Dodd "has trailed far behind in the polls. In his remarks here and in an interview, he lamented the emphasis on the leading Democratic candidates' money and celebrity status. He warned that may not be good for Iowa's first-in-the-nation future," the Des Moines Register writes.

EDWARDS: The campaign runs a full-page ad in today's Des Moines Register, with this headline; "Every Iowan Knows the Truth -- We Must Fight For Change." The ad also includes a testimonial from a laid-off Maytag worker who is backing Edwards.

The candidate responded to Michelle Obama saying that if Edwards were nominated he'd be handicapped because he's limited by agreeing to take matching funds. "'When you're resorting to arguments about how much money somebody has, you're in a bad place,' he said. 'Because you're not saying, "He's wrong on this issue, or he's wrong on that issue. And he's not a good candidate." They're not saying any of that. They're saying, "But we have more money."'" Then Elizabeth Edwards also came to her husband's defense. "'I'm surprised and disappointed in Michelle,' she said."

The Boston Globe checks in with Edwards with a front-page story headlined, "Edwards brings fighting words: Populist message stirs old passions in a different era." "With few programmatic differences among the Democratic candidates, the top three are distinguished from one another largely by their readings of the national condition. Senator Hillary Clinton of New York has emerged as the field's realist, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois as its idealist, and former senator Edwards of North Carolina as its cynic, beseeching Americans to realize they are victims of a corporate conspiracy."

Does this help Edwards or does it hurt him? Per the Politico, "Ralph Nader unleashed on Hillary Rodham Clinton Monday - criticizing her for being soft on defense spending and a chum of big business - and expressed his strong support for John Edwards."

OBAMA: Obama "told a crowd in Jefferson, Iowa, that in the general election against the Republicans, 'I intend to whup 'em so good that it won't even be close,'" The New York Daily News reports. The remarks put Obama at odds with the conventional wisdom for early presidential contests - that it's better to lowball expectations and surpass them."

The candidate didn't really please the liberal netroots with his recent "that's why I didn't become a trial lawyer" comment.

HUCKABEE: The candidate held a press conference to say he was not running a negative ad against Romney and then showed it to reporters anyway. "Reporters asked whether it was hypocritical to pull the ad, then show it to journalists," The Des Moines Register writes. "'People want to be cynical about it, they can be cynical about it,' Huckabee said. 'If I said we were not going to run an ad ... you'd say, 'Where's the ad?'

"Several placards displayed at the news conference carried the message 'enough is enough,' but they also included criticism of Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. One charted how many non-Republican judges Romney had nominated in his home state; another said he approved tax-exempt bonds to construct a building for Planned Parenthood. Huckabee said the decision to withdraw the attack ad was made a short time before the scheduled news conference and people who set up the event did not know of his decision." 

The AP's Fournier adds, "If he loses Iowa's caucuses, New Year's Eve will forever mark the day Huckabee blew it - the day a crowd stopped laughing with the witty Republican and laughed at him. If he wins - a possibility that even Huckabee now thinks he put at risk - he sealed victory in a weird way Monday."

There is plenty of other coverage of Huckabee's anti-negative ad press conference from yesterday:
-- Washington Post
-- New York Times
-- First Read

ROMNEY: The New York Times' David Brooks writes a pretty devastating column about Romney: He says the ex-governor is unelectable in a general election. Romney "has turned himself into the party's fusion candidate. Some of his rivals are stronger among social conservatives. Others are stronger among security conservatives, but no candidate has a foot in all camps the way Romney does. No candidate offends so few, or is the acceptable choice of so many… And what Romney failed to anticipate is this: In turning himself into an old-fashioned, orthodox Republican, he has made himself unelectable in the fall. When you look inside his numbers, you see tremendous weaknesses."

The New York Times looks at the tough weeks that Romney's faced. "The past two months, described in a series of interviews with Mr. Romney's advisers, amounted to a test of Mr. Romney's ability to adapt to a rapidly changing political situation and harness the corporate culture he prides himself on to keep his candidacy from being damaged or even derailed."

The point of the story may be that this is Romney's true test, and if he somehow gets by Huckabee and wins Iowa, he may just pull this off.

Romney's second stop of the day yesterday was in Bellevue, IA, NBC/NJ's Erin McPike reports, and that was the first time he visited Bellevue. There were about 70 people at the location (Potter's Mill), and one of the waitresses, a Democrat, said she loved John Edwards, but after seeing Romney, she said she was nearly certain she is going to switch her registration to Republican and caucus for him

THOMPSON: The candidate "on Monday posted a 17-minute video offering his final arguments to Iowa voters on why Republicans in the state should support him for president in their precinct caucuses. Thompson told an audience at the Charles City Public Library that the message he wanted to convey in advance of Thursday's caucuses was too long for a television commercial. He has complained that modern presidential campaigns do not allow candidates to give detailed answers."

For the upcoming New Hampshire debates, the New York Times reports that "Fox has invited five of the Republican candidates to a televised forum in Manchester on Sunday, but not Representative Ron Paul of Texas, right, who has placed fourth in some recent New Hampshire polls, or Representative Duncan Hunter of California." And ABC "will include only candidates who finish in the top four in the Iowa caucuses or receive at least 5 percent in New Hampshire or national polls. The criteria could potentially sideline several of the Democrats, including" Dodd and Biden.

The AP looks at the potential impact of absentee voting, and that in 11 states it's already under way. "Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses are Thursday. But residents of 11 states -- Alabama, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, South Carolina and Utah -- have been able to vote for their favorite candidates since December. The first was Michigan, where absentee ballots were made available Dec. 1 for the Jan. 15 primary."

More: "Absentee voting expands to a majority of the country in January. Sixteen other states make ballots available to their voters before the end of the month, including delegate-rich California on Jan. 7. Nearly 4 million voters in California are signed up as "permanent absentee voters," meaning early ballots for the primaries will automatically pop up in their mailboxes. In 2004, about a third of the state's primary ballots were cast early. In 2006, the figure was 47 percent."

NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli reports that on last night's Carson Daly New Years Eve Show, a woman asked Mike Bloomberg if he had any announcements to make about 2008. For the record, he said he'd be right there again in one year doing the same thing in Times Square. Not that that rules anything out.

From NBC's John Yang
President Bush returns to the White House from his Texas ranch this afternoon to begin his last full calendar year in office.

And what a long, strange trip it's been.. Bush took office seven years ago after a disputed election with his eyes firmly set on domestic policy, a stated disdain for "nation building" and an aversion to spend political capital on Middle East peace, as his predecessors had. Then came the 9/11 attacks. Since then, his presidency has been dominated by foreign policy -- efforts to rebuild Iraq after using a war to topple Saddam Hussein and now a last grab at a legacy is the goal of a two-state solution in Israel this year.

While in office, Mr. Bush has had to give up running -- damage to his right knee -- but he's still fond of running analogies. Until his predecessor is inaugurated January 20, 2009, he promises "a sprint to the finish." The route increasingly takes him overseas. Next week, he sets off on a nine-day trip to the Middle East to encourage Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. He also has trips scheduled to Africa to highlight his efforts to curb the HIV/AIDS pandemic on the continent, Beijing for the Summer Olympics, Peru for APEC and Japan for the G-8.