GIULIANI: The candidate is up with a new national television ad that uses images of Osama bin Laden and fighting in Middle East streets, NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger notes. It is part of an effort to focus on combating terrorism in the closing days before the New Hampshire primaries, including a call for a military "surge" in Afghanistan. "In a world where the next crisis is a moment away, American needs a leader who's ready," the ad says. But it is the quick flashes of disturbing images -- including bin Laden firing a machine guns, recently assassinated Pakistani leader Benazir Bhutto speaking into a microphone, and other symbolic terrorism images -- that will get most of the attention.
 
"An enemy without borders. Hate without boundaries. A people perverted. A religion betrayed. A nuclear power in chaos. Madmen bent on creating it. Leaders assassinated. Democracy attacked. And Osama bin Laden still making threats," an announcer says on top of the images.

Berger adds that Giuliani's latest campaign ad paints a haunting picture of terrorism in more than one language. To most, it is the images of Osama bin Laden and other Muslim terrorists firing machine guns that stand out. But to those who speak Arabic, the song playing underneath the ad might also grab attention. The lyrics, according to a translation provided by the campaign, are as follows:

"Instead of me, you carried a bomb in your hands.
My love will not be merely words.
I am following in Mommy's footsteps.
I am following in Mommy's footsteps."

HUCKABEE: Instead of being in Iowa last night, the candidate was on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno last night, the first show back for Leno since the writer's strike began.

The Huckabee campaign is alleging dirty tricks galore right now. Time has a report about pastors supposedly getting threatened over losing their tax-exempt status for getting involved in Huck's campaign.

Huckabee's campaign also shared with NBC News evidence they say shows their supporters getting incorrect caucus location postcards. Look for the day to be filled with rumors about dirty phone calls, etc. And with so many national reporters looking for something to report about  before the caucuses start, they'll be plenty of outlets at the ready.

MCCAIN: When is a win a win? McCain's recent parade of endorsements and bumps in primary-state polling have many pundits buzzing about his comeback candidacy. But, according to NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann, the Arizona senator is being cautious about defining exactly what success and Iowa in New Hampshire might be. "'Win' is in the interpretation of the media," McCain told reporters last night after a rally in Davenport.

But, asked to predict the outcome of the primary in New Hampshire, where some recent polls see him in first place, McCain said that he thinks he will "win." Pressured to define those expectations, he repeated that "a win is a win." But in the same breath, McCain went on to downplay his own prediction, adding that "it is by no means clear that I will."  He emphasized that the number of undecided voters in primary states makes the race extremely difficult to predict.

The Washington Post's Cillizza reports, "Buoyed by new poll numbers in New Hampshire that show him at the verge of victory, Sen. John McCain will take to the television airwaves in Michigan on Friday as he seeks to build his own path to the Republican presidential nomination."

ROMNEY: NBC/NJ's Erin McPike reports that the candidate's big family showed up in full for a rally last night. Seated on the stage behind the large, catwalk-like runway where he spoke and underneath a big screen with "Iowa For Mitt" emblazoned on it were his five sons, three of his five daughters-in-law and several of his grandchildren. And when Olympic gold medal-winning speed-skater Dan Jansen introduced the candidate, he pointed to the family and said, "When they do get to the White House, we will have the best-looking first family in history."
 
Romney's remarks weren't much different than what he's been giving recently, and he didn't make a longer or more impassioned appeal than he's given on the stump all week when asking supporters to go out and caucus. Much of what he said was plucked right out of his standard stumping kit, and he acknowledged just about each time he told an anecdote that the crowd has heard him tell it before.

"Romney expressed confidence Wednesday that he would claim his party's presidential nod even if he fails to win tonight's Iowa caucuses. The former Massachusetts governor said supporters 'have touched our lives in very real ways.' But a disappointing finish in Iowa would not destroy his campaign, Romney said."

Does Romney have a major brand problem or what? Joe Klein is the latest national columnist to question who Romney is. "As George H.W. Bush learned, you can't run for President pretending to be one thing and succeed in office as someone else (Bush ran as a viciously negative, antitax populist instead of the thoughtful, tax-raising moderate that he actually was). Romney reminds me a bit of Bush the Elder. He seems very intelligent. His candidacy had real potential. But I don't think Romney believes a word he says on any of the red-meat issues that he's been using to bludgeon his opponents. Which is why he says those things only on television, where he doesn't have to look anyone in the eye."

The Boston Herald has a gotcha story of sorts this morning, finding that under Romney's watch, 118 "killers and rapists were sprung early from prison." Spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom said Romney did nothing to deliberately release inmates early and was only following the law by granting them good time they were able to claim under state regulations. "Governor Romney did not issue any pardons or commutations as governor," Fehrnstrom wrote in an e-mailed statement. "Mike Huckabee issued 1,033."

THOMPSON: Perhaps a story like this was inevitable. Some aides are speaking on background, hinting that Thompson could exit this race quickly if he doesn't do well tonight.

Look who's deciding to criticize the presidential field.

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan and NBC's Mark Hudspeth
Obama's campaign proudly announced today the endorsement of former South Carolina Gov. Jim Hodges who will join his campaign as a national co-chair.

But the endorsement of Hodges may raise eyebrows among those who support Obama because he strongly decries lobbyists on the stump, frequently saying that he will not let them work in his White House or set the agenda in Washington.

Hodges is the founder of Hodges Consulting Group, a state-based lobbying firm he started in 2003. The firm is a subsidiary of Kennedy Covington Lobdell & Hickman, L.L.P, a law firm that represents clients in North Carolina and South Carolina.

Earlier this week, after Edwards vowed that no lobbyists would work in his administration, he was criticized because a key supporter and fundraiser was a state lobbyist. The Obama campaign wrote this Tuesday in an e-mail to reporters on Edwards' plan: "Early in this campaign, Barack Obama introduced the furthest-reaching lobbying reform proposal of any candidate in this race, and we appreciate that John Edwards is now following his lead. The truth is, in his six years as a U.S. Senator, John Edwards did not propose or accomplish a single thing to reduce the power of lobbyists while Barack Obama passed the most sweeping lobbying reform since Watergate."

Hodges Consulting describes itself on its Web site as "well positioned to offer highly effective lobbying services and unparalleled state budget expertise. Hodges Consulting Group can also provide federal representation to clients."

Though Obama has also said that he won't take federal PAC and lobbyist money on his campaign, he does take money from state based lobbyists as previously reported by First Read.

Obama's co-chair in New Hampshire, Jim Demers, is a state based lobbyist for the pharmaceutical and financial services industries amongst others.   Michael Bauer, a member of Obama's LGBT steering committee, is a state based lobbyist in Chicago. And in Nevada, Obama's campaign also has three state based lobbyists who play senior advising roles in August last year.

When asked by reporters on the call why Hodges could work with the campaign even though he is a lobbyist, campaign manager, David Plouffe, said the campaign's policy for limiting lobbyists' influence applied to taking money only from federal registered lobbyists and PACs.

Obama also has said that no lobbyists can regulate industries they were working for in his White House for two years and that they cannot work for lobbyists after leaving his White House for the remainder of his tenure.   and that they cannot go lobby for an industry that t

Obama, however, has justified taking money from state based lobbyists and working with them.  

"Because I have no power in this state, so I'm not influenced in any way by somebody who's lobbying at the state level," he told NBC's Sacramento affiliate in August. "The main thing that we're trying to avoid is any perception that somehow those who are doing business in Washington have an influence on my agenda."

*** UPDATE *** NBC's Domenico Montanaro adds that Hodges is, in fact, a registered federal lobbyist, a search of the Senate Office of Public Records Lobbying Disclosure Act Database shows. He registered as such on June 1, 2007.

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
BETTENDORF, IA -- Romney, Huckabee, and the press seem to agree that the race in Iowa between the two men is too close to call, so Romney's mind is back on McCain and New Hampshire.

He opened a session with reporters here by turning his attention to his chief rival in New Hampshire, where some of the most recent polling shows a statistical dead heat between the two. "On the political front, I understand Sen. McCain is back in Iowa," he said. "Welcome to Iowa, senator." Romney then proceeded to take McCain to task on the Bush tax cuts -- a matter of no small significance in Romney's next big target, the Granite State.

Specifically asked by a reporter just moments later if his focus has shifted to McCain, Romney loosened up a bit and laughed, "No, actually I figured you guys would talk to me about Mike Huckabee, so I took the chance to talk about John McCain."

And questions about Huckabee there were. The very first question was about Romney's thoughts on Huckabee's jetsetting out to California before the caucuses to appear on Jay Leno's show tonight. Romney took the chance to blast Huckabee: "Well, frankly my focus is on the caucuses here in Iowa. I think Mike is more concerned about the caucus in Los Angeles."

From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
WOLFEBORO, NH -- Giuliani has made Florida the core of his nomination strategy. And once the New Hampshire primaries are over, he will essentially take up residency there.

Aides said Wednesday that Giuliani will be focusing almost exclusively on Florida for the next three weeks, heading there on Jan. 9, the day after the New Hampshire primary. He will make day trips to South Carolina and Michigan (as well as Texas for fundraising) during those weeks, but will mostly be criss-crossing the Sunshine State until the Jan. 29 primary -- with California a major destination thereafter. The campaign is currently considering finding a base hotel for the next few weeks, and there will likely be bus tours.

Giuliani has rarely stayed in one state for more than a few days, and planned campaign events around fund-raising trips. He has frequented Feb. 5 states like Missouri and Illinois more than most other candidates, and has been a frequent Sunshine State visitor as well.

But the news is definitely in keeping with Giuliani's electoral strategy, which is heavily reliant on Florida. His numbers in the state have fallen, though he maintains a lead. And the campaign is hoping a strong showing will bounce them back into the national dialogue and perhaps the national lead.

To highlight the strategy, Giuliani will travel to the Miami area tomorrow night, and will be on television from there on caucus night. He will spend the rest of the week, through Tuesday, in New Hampshire.

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
ON THE ROAD, Iowa -- Huckabee continued on his mission to run an overtly positive campaign during the final days before the Iowa caucuses. But in two stops in the north central region of the state this morning, he found a way to respond to his opponent's criticisms without explicitly referring to him.

Yesterday, Romney took a jab at Huck for being critical of President Bush, and today in Fort Dodge there was a new line in Huckabee's stump speech.

"I'm grateful for our president," he said to a crowd of over 100 people. "I know he's taken a lot of criticism for a lot of things, and sometimes I've disagreed with him. But I appreciate the fact that in the six years since 9/11 happened we haven't had another terrorist attack on our soil and I give him credit for putting us first in that."

Asked by reporters after the event why he chose today speak in defense of the president after months of rarely mentioning Bush on the campaign trail, Huckabee said, "I want to make sure that people know that I do have a lot of respect for the manner in which the president has dealt with the terrorist issue ... and I don't think he's been given enough credit."

"I think I've got a much stronger record of actually supporting the president when I agreed with him, but I'm not a person who is afraid to say, 'But here's where there are some differences,'" Huckabee added.

And on why today: "I add stuff into my speech everyday. I wish I knew why I did it."

Huckabee also took some well-veiled shots at Romney's huge investment in Iowa and his well-known flip-flops on abortion and the 2nd Amendment. Just a few weeks ago, Huckabee pulled no punches, telling 500 supporters in Ottumwa that they would never find YouTube clips of him wavering on any of these key issues.

Today he simply said, "We have to understand that when somebody panders to us and tells us that it's all about, you know, 'Well, I've decided I'm going to be this position now.' I want to know that the conviction is what's driving it, not the politics. We need to believe that there are some things that in this country really matter."

Yet seeming to acknowledge the affect that Romney's negative campaign has had on his support, Huckabee admitted that coming in second here tomorrow would not be the end for him.

"If we come in even second, frankly, we're still on our feet and moving on," he said. "We've got an incredible story to tell, being like that we ought to be defeated 4-to-1... If we win it'll be the most unbelievable political story in decades, and it'll be talked about for a long time and you'll be a part of it."

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones and NBC's Christina Jamison
DES MOINES, Iowa -- Clinton began the day before the caucuses with a stop at her Polk County field office to rally some 50-plus volunteers, staffers, and supporters.

With about 34 hours to go before Iowans begin to gather in their precincts, Clinton and her daughter Chelsea arrived with coffee, doughnuts, and other items to fortify those who will spend the day out in the bitter cold knocking on doors and urging people to come out and caucus for her.

Clinton spent several minutes greeting supporters, signing autographs, and joking about the cold weather and having to tell her young volunteers from more "exotic climes" like Florida and California to buy coats.
    
"You've got a lot of support," said one man, as he shook the senator's hand. 
    
"I know. I feel it," replied.
      
Clinton spent the most time talking with a nurse, a precinct captain who greeted her with a hearty "Madame President." The woman was near tears as she talked about the challenges she faces at work, particularly the lack of staffing, and the difficulties diagnosing PTSD (Post Traumatic Stress Disorder) and TBI (Traumatic Brain Injury). 

One young man approached Chelsea, saying they were the same age. She joked with him about being awkward as an adolescent and talked about always having at least one parent around each night during her growing up years in the White House.
 
State director Teresa Vilmain and New York Rep. Anthony Weiner were also on hand. Vilmain later briefed reporters on the press bus on the way to Indianola. "We're going to go knock on every door that's a supporter and everybody that's leaning toward us," she said. Vilmain added that more than 625 staffers and volunteers went to visit supporters and undecideds on Tuesday.

Vilmain said there were still many undecided voters and talked about the importance of making sure caucus-goers are ready to go. She said the campaign had lined up around 5,000 drivers to help shuttle people to their precincts. They have more than 600 shovels to help clear driveways -- shipped using nine U-Hauls dispatched throughout the state over a 24-hour period four days ago -- and numerous pounds of salt for precinct walkways.

The campaign is providing food at pre-gathering sites, starting as early as 5:00 pm all across the state, in part to help the campaign gauge who has shown up and who hasn't.
 
Vilmain spoke briefly about the difficulties they faced trying to campaign the day after Christmas and said that while people may be sick of getting phone calls from the campaigns, Iowans respond well to people who knock on their doors. The "connect rate" is far higher door to door, she said. For example, in the last few days, the phone connect rate has been about 40%. Yesterday's door-to-door connect rate was 52%.

It all comes down to organizing and training the precinct captains, a challenge for Clinton's campaign given that 40% of its  precinct captains haven't caucused since 2000. Vilmain was careful to point out that Edwards' camp retained 74% of its precinct captains from 2004.

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Domenico Montanaro
We have noted that Both Clinton and Obama have bought two minutes of airtime for their closing ads during tonight's local newscasts in Iowa and that Edwards has bought 60 seconds. We have seen links of both Clinton's and Edwards' and have posted on First Read. The Obama campaign is not releasing the ad before it airs, but First Read has obtained a copy.

Obama, wearing a dark suit and speaking in front of a dark background, stresses a sense of urgency, telling caucus-goers to ask, "[W]ho can take us in a fundamentally new direction? I'm running to finally solve problems we talk about year after year after year to end the division, obscene influence of lobbyists, and the politics that values scoring points over making progress.

"We can't afford more of that. Not this year. Not now. I've spent my life working for change that has made a real difference in the lives of real people."

He then touts his biography -- that he "passed up a job on Wall Street -- to fight joblessness and poverty on the streets of Chicago when the local steel plant closed." He also points to legislative achievements and that he is "not a perfect man. And I won't be a perfect president. But I can promise you this. I will always tell you where I stand and what I think. I will listen to you when we disagree."

He closes with, "I will carry your voices to the White House and I will fight for you every day I am there. So I ask you to caucus tomorrow. Not just for me but for your hopes, for your dreams, for the America you believe is possible."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
McCain again hits Romney with another tough Web video. This one does not show images of terrorism, but expounds on yesterday's video, making the argument that Romney lacks on foreign policy experience.

"The following is a Mitt Romney issue alert," an announcer says. "Mitt Romney says the next President doesn't need foreign policy experience. Here he is in his own words.

The ad then shows a TV clip of Romney saying, "Well, if we want somebody who has a lot of experience in foreign policy we can simply go to the State Department."

"Is he serious?" the announcer continues. "We live in a dangerous world. And these are serious times. America needs a President who is serious about foreign policy. John McCain is he one man prepared to lead America in a time of crisis."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Domenico Montanaro
Congressman Tom Lantos (D-CA), a Holocaust survivor, will retire at the end of his term and not seek re-election after finding out that he has "cancer of the esophagus," he wrote in a statement.

The Hungarian-born Lantos is chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and was first elected in 1980. Lantos originally supported the war in Iraq, but has since been vocally opposed to it.

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
The focus may be on Iowa, but in addition to the 2-minute closing argument ad Clinton's campaign will be showing during tonight's local newscasts there, her campaign is releasing a new ad in New Hampshire today.

Called "Best Choice," the 30-second spot highlights recent newspaper endorsements from across New Hampshire. The endorsements include 11 Salmon Press weekly papers, Foster's Daily Democrat and Laconia Citizen, four Cabinet Press weekly papers, the Keene Sentinel and the Concord Monitor.

The ad shows Clinton engaging crowds of people at rallies alternating  with bold black text on a white background showing words lifted from these endorsements.

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
DAVENPORT, Iowa -- Obama was on a soapbox today. Literally. The campaign's equipment truck apparently hit a deer a day ago, and the senator had to make do with standing on a cardboard box.

"Since we are in our closing days here, we had to improvise a little bit. Apparently the truck with the equipment hit a deer and we feel bad for the deer and we feel bad for the truck," Obama said to a lot of applause.  

"That's why I'm sorta on a soap box here," he added.

Communications Director Robert Gibbs said he didn't know the size of the deer and had few details on the incident. "But let's just say it was incapacitated," Gibbs said. "But so was the truck."

The message of the event to a mid-size gym filled with supporters was turnout on caucus night by both Obama and Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) who introduced him. The core of Durbin's message as Obama's was later was to turn away from the polls and the speculation and focus their attention on turning out the vote in the last 30 hours before the caucus.

"We don't want to assume any of these polls are right. You know what counts. It counts filling rooms like this with people who believe, with people who care. You know that it means that your job in the closing hours here are so significant, you have to work really hard to take this great organization to the finish line of the caucuses," Durbin urged the crowd.

Leo Peck, the precinct captain, who also spoke and was described by Durbin as an "unsung hero" in American politics, said later that he and volunteers would spend all day today and tomorrow trudging through snow in 10-degree weather to knock on doors and make a final push to persuade voters.

"This has been a lucky period between Christmas and New Year's a lot of people are off on vacations," Peck said, "so I have had really good luck percentage wise and the question today is whether they'll really be home."

Peck estimated that 75 percent of the people that he's reached out to and believes will come to the caucus tomorrow night are first time caucus-goers.  

"I have spent a lot of time reassuring them that it's not as ominous as they think it is," he said, adding, "People are always a little reluctant to do something they've never done before. We have a group of people who can take them through it every step of the way and they can be reassured that they won't get lost in the caucus," he said.

For Peck, who's been canvassing for Obama for seven months, 30 hours before the caucus feels like "the big game is coming."

"It's known and unknown," he said. "You're hoping for a result but you're working like you don't think it's going to happen. So you're out there everyday, or every hour today working to make sure it does happen and never taking anything for granted."

On caucus night, Peck will be responsible for a ward -- Davenport -- that could produce seven delegates for Obama, it's one of the largest in Scott County, a Democratic strong hold and critical for the campaign.

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
QUAD CITIES, Iowa -- Romney has had press on a private, chartered plane before, but not like this. Just a day before the caucuses he was once expected to win and win big, his plane is filled with reporters anxious to gauge his mood on the day before the big day.

There approximately 30 representatives from the media on the plane. There was even a seat right up front reserved for the New York Times'  Maureen Dowd, but she wasn't present for the first leg of the trip from Des Moines to Quad Cities.

And even though there is plenty of headscratching by Iowans and politicos over Huckabee's escape from Iowa to California for several hours today, the first time Romney is meeting with voters publicly today is not until almost 3 p.m. CST -- and that's at an airport.

He gets started in Quad Cities with a session with reporters and later jets off to Cedar Rapids for that mid-afternoon airport meet and greet with supporters. Then it's off to Mason City for the same thing before jetting to a Des Moines rally tonight.

Looks like it's just another "four media market day."

From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
MOUNT PLEASANT, Iowa -- A woman who famously switched from volunteering for Clinton to Obama has changed her mind... again.

Susan Klopfer was volunteering for Clinton until, she estimates, November. She worked hard as a volunteer, but resented the advance staff that was brought in to take charge of the events. As the next-door neighbor of Clinton backer and former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (a recent transplant from Nevada, and therefore, a first-time caucus-goer), Klopfer had a bit higher profile than most Iowans.

When she switched, the Obama campaign made a video that got lots of play, not only on YouTube, but also on cable news programs.

"It got more hits than Paris Hilton and Britney Spears. It got the all-time highest over that weekend," she said of the video's YouTube hits. The video was so potent that the Clinton campaign made an answering video with its own former Obama supporters.

Yet when Klopfer showed up at an Edwards house party this morning, it was because she was on the verge of switching again.

"In both of those people, I didn't see the experience that I'd like to see and kind of the groundedness that I'd like to see," she said of Obama and Clinton, "so I'm really looking at Edwards, and I'm still really looking at Richardson."

Klopfer said she went to see Richardson when he held an event in Mount Pleasant last night and was impressed by both Richardson then and Edwards today.

"Probably I'll caucus for Richardson," she said after Edwards spoke. "My guess is he won't be viable, and then I'll probably scoot right over to Edwards."

From NBC's Mark Hudspeth
DAVENPORT, Iowa -- At his first event this morning on his final day of campaigning before the Iowa caucuses, Obama asked a packed gymnasium how many people were planning to caucus for the first time. About a third of the crowd raised their hand. 

"You know, lately some of the pundits have been skeptical that you folks who say you're going to caucus for the first time are actually going to caucus," he said.

"So the question is? Are we going to prove them wrong?" Obama shouted to a cheering crowd of about 250 people headed out to canvass. "I couldn't hear you. Are we going to prove them wrong? Is everybody going to caucus?!!"

It's part of an effort his campaign is making to push back against assertions that Monday's Des Moines Register poll oversampled first-time caucusgoers.

Robert Gibbs, Obama's Communications Director, pointed out this morning that last night when Obama asked the same question at a 10pm CT rally in Dubuque, nearly half the people in the room raised their hands.

"If you're willing to come out at 11 o'clock [at night] when it's zero degrees," Gibbs said, "why wouldn't you come out at 6:30 [p.m.] when it's 20 degrees out?"

What follows is an hour-by-hour, stop-by-stop account of Edwards' 36-hour, up-all-night bus tour in Iowa from 10:30 p.m. CT last night to after 3 a.m. CT, as reported by NBC News/National Journal campaign reporter Tricia Miller.

From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
Council Bluffs
Approx. 10:30 p.m.: John Edwards arrives at his Council Bluffs field office. On the corner outside the office, two groups of four to five hardy Edwards supporters wave signs as traffic drives by. A few feet farther away, four men wave Ron Paul signs and explain that they came to Iowa to support the Texas congressman. As the mob follows John and Elizabeth Edwards from the mini-van they arrived in toward the small office's door, Elizabeth slips on the icy parking area and says in response to a question that she is not OK. Nonetheless, she rallies, pushes to the front of the room and introduces her husband. No one in the room where she is speaking or the one next to it has any personal space, and about 25 people remain out in the cold, unable to squeeze in.

As Edwards speaks inside, a near-fight breaks out not far outside the door to the office. A man named Earl, who is black and said he was from New Orleans and had relocated to Council Bluffs after Hurricane Katrina, and another man, who is white, argued over Earl's claim that black people were not allowed into bars in Council Bluffs. Meanwhile, Edwards pushes through the crowd to a second room in the office and speaks again, more briefly this time. He had at least one local TV interview with Omaha NBC affiliate WOWT after the appearance. A couple of Californians who had come to Iowa to see Edwards discussed their chances of getting a better view of the former senator at the event in Atlantic. At some point in Council Bluffs, Edwards and his staff switched from the Main Street Express (not fueled by Washington lobbyists or PACs ever) to a more anonymous bus because the driver is concerned about electrical problems.

11:44 p.m.: The two buses are on the way to the home of Denise O'Brien, the 2006 Democratic nominee for Iowa's Secretary of Agriculture. There, Edwards will attend a "midnight GOTC (get out the caucus) party." Little does O'Brien know that she's about to be bombarded with requests for power from reporters who need to plug in laptops, computers, cameras and BlackBerries.

11:55 p.m.: Roxanne Conlin, co-chair of Edwards' campaign in Iowa, schmoozes on the press bus, but is disappointed to see a lot of reporters sleeping. Conlin, who often introduces Edwards at events in Iowa, is best known for her triumph over Microsoft in a class-action suit in February 2007. She was also Iowa's first female gubernatorial candidate in 1982 and served as the first woman president of the American Trial Lawyers Association  

Atlantic
The Atlantic stop was in a small farmhouse that seemed to have gotten crowded even before the press van emptied out. It was hard to tell how many people were there, because we couldn't get from one room to the next. I believe John Edwards was in the room two away from the one I started in. I walked outside and found a couple different cameramen shooting Edwards through the window. He appeared to be standing next to a Christmas tree.

The few members of the bloated press corps close enough to hear Edwards reassured the rest of us that it was the regular stump speech. One of the Californians I met at the previous stop was standing outside in the cold again, but told me she did manage to shake Elizabeth's hand, as she made her way to the house. She vowed to never wash that glove again. We left the farmhouse a little before 1 a.m., and I heard we had about an hour and 20 minutes to the next stop.
 
I attempted a nap between stops, but am pleased to deliver some advice for future all-nighters: it's better to just stay awake.

Creston
The Creston house is much bigger than the farmhouse in Atlantic was, and a supporter named Roseanne told me it wasn't crowded until reporters arrived. An Atlantic resident, Roseanne said she supported Edwards in 2004, but wasn't motivated enough to get to the caucus then. She recorded both stills and video of the Edwardses on her digital camera.

This is the first time I could get close enough to hear John and Elizabeth speak, and they talked for a total of less than five minutes combined. When a ringer interrupts her, Elizabeth says, "I can't believe somebody's getting a telephone call," and the crowd laughs. "We have now less than 48 hours 'til the Iowa caucuses, and the fact that all of you are willing to be here in the middle of the night to show your support for what we're doing is inspirational for us, and it's inspirational for the change that the rest of the country desperately needs," John says.

To laughter he tells the crowd that one of the keys to finishing the Marathon for the Middle Class is to be awake and adds that 15 minutes ago, he wasn't. Blindly following the candidate, I stumble upon an ABC network interview as it finishes just outside the back door. I grab a doorknocker entitled, "Caucus for John Edwards" from a stack on a coffee table in the living room. It directs the recipient to Council Bluffs Precinct 8 in Pottawattamie County, located on Thursday at Glenn School at 1735 N. Broadway in Council Bluff, IA. (A typo: Council Bluffs should be plural.)

2:54 a.m.: I called the John Edwards for President hotline at 877-320-5646. A guy named Tony answered, but when I 'fessed up to being a reporter he dutifully didn't answer my questions.

3:00 a.m. [Actually 2:59, per my BlackBerry]: We get a release entitled, "Restless to Strengthen the Middle Class" from Edwards' Iowa Communications Director Dan Leistikow. It begins: "It's 3 a.m. in Iowa, but John Edwards won't rest until we fix the broken system in Washington and make it work for the middle class. He's traveling throughout the state to meet with caucus-goers and offer his bold ideas to strengthen the middle class."

3:17 a.m.: The press bus is full, but only four lights are on. Props to reporters from the Des Moines Register, Slate and I think Newsweek (as well as yours truly) for toughing it out. We have about a two-hour drive to the next event in Centerville, where Edwards is expected to "attend a pancake breakfast for supporters and volunteers" before they get started on GOTC activities in a supporter's home.

From NBC's Bethany Thomas
PEMBROKE, NH -- The topic of McCain's age came up again, this time here at a town hall, where one voter asked, "Do you have the health and endurance to do eight years?" 

As he normally does when asked this question, McCain cited his 95-year-old mother as a great example of his genes and told the story of Roberta McCain trying to rent a car in France. When told she was too old, she instead bought a car. He said he's only running for four years right now. "If I said I was running for eight years, I'm not sure that would be a vote getter." The audience laughed. "My health is good, my campaign schedule is heavier than anybody else's. I've said it many times: I can out-campaign anybody. 

He added, "I feel very vigorous I think the decision for running for re-election has to do with the circumstances at the time. I really do. You shouldn't run for eight years because then you've got eight years to get these things done. We've got to get these things done immediately.  We don't have time to waste.  We don't have eight years. We don't' have eight years to fix Social Security or Medicare. We don't have eight years to secure our borders so that we can stop the flow of illegal immigrants into this country.  We don't have eight years. We've got to get going right away from Day One."

The notion of him potentially not considering two terms was brought up in the media avail right afterwards. McCain said, "I think every president in history has run for the first term and then evaluate it in two or three years whether they can run for re-election. I don't think I am different from anyone who is seeking the presidency. As I said, 'Please elect me for eight years,' I don't think that's a vote-getter. presidents get elected, then they serve a lot of the first term, then they decide whether or not they run for re-election. I'm sure I would do the same as any other candidate."

 

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
New numbers out show Giuliani slipping nationally. A Pew Research poll finds McCain in the lead (22%), followed by Giuliani (20%) and then Huckabee (17%). Giuliani has seen a decline of 13 points in the poll since September, when he held a 33%-22% lead over Thompson. In November, Giuliani dropped to a 26%-19% lead over McCain. Romney comes in at 12%, about where he's been nationally in this poll, and Thompson continues his fall, now into single digits at 9%.

According to Pew's analysis: "The drop in support for Giuliani has occurred across all segments of the GOP electorate. While he continues to garner more backing from moderate and liberal Republicans (28%) than from conservatives (15%), both groups show double-digit declines from September. The growth in support for McCain is most notable among moderate and liberal Republicans, where he is up 10 points since September. Huckabee's gains were strongest
among conservative Republicans, where he currently garners as much support at McCain (20%)."

On the Democratic side, Clinton maintains a significant lead at 46%-26% over Obama. Edwards is third at 14%.

From NBC's Mark Murray
DES MOINES, Iowa -- Having trouble keeping track of all the different poll, not to mention the campaigns' spin and counterspin on them? To helpe clear up some of the confusion -- and also make the case that its candidate is doing better than the Des Moines Register poll suggests -- the Edwards camp has released a short memo averaging the nine Iowa polls released since Christmas (MSNBC/McClatchy, Strategic Vision, Insider Advantage, the average of the Zogby/C-SPAN tracking survey, Research 2000, another Strategic Vision, Des Moines Register, CNN, and LA Times).

The average has Clinton at 28.2%, Obama at 27.5%, and Edwards at 26.3%

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
DES MOINES, IA -- One day until the caucuses… As we've noted before, everyone in Iowa is a prisoner of anecdotes right now, because what else do we have to go on? The Des Moines Register poll? Um, no. Anyway, one thing that we picked up yesterday while watching the candidates: Clinton, Obama, and Romney seem a heckuva lot more comfortable on the trail than Edwards and Huckabee. Perhaps that makes a lot of sense because both Edwards and Huckabee HAVE to do well here to take off, while the other three have the resources to reboot their campaign in another state. Obviously, not doing well here will be a problem for Clinton, Obama and Romney -- but not nearly as lethal as doing poorly here would do to Edwards and Huckabee. No wonder the two are pressing.

*** If you haven't seen enough ads… : And as far as final pitches go, Hillary airs her two-minute appeal on local Iowa TV tonight, and in its she says, " I know you've waited a long time for a president who can see you and hear you, and I would like to be that president. So I ask you to caucus for me tomorrow. Put on your coats, call up a friend, and help me change America.  If you stand with me for one night, I will stand up for you every day as your president.  I'll work my heart out to bring the country we love the new beginning it needs.  And I will be ready to start on day one. " Obama and Edwards also have bought time on Iowa TV to air their closing pitches.

*** Was Mike Henry right? While Clinton does have the resources to reboot her campaign if she loses here, the Politico's Roger Simon asks a question that we've wondered as well: "Should Hillary Clinton have skipped Iowa? If she loses the caucus here Thursday, will her campaign wish it had listened to the advice it got last May to take a hike on the Hawkeye state? Back then, Clinton's deputy campaign manager, Mike Henry, wrote a 1,500-word internal memo saying Iowa was not worth the effort. 'My recommendation is to pull completely out of Iowa and spend the money and Senator Clinton's time on other states,' Henry wrote. 'If she walks away from Iowa she will devalue Iowa - our consistently weakest state.' Henry's advice was never accepted." By the way, one thing we'd like to consider: Had Obama, and not Clinton received the Des Moines Register endorsement, would the Clinton campaign started pivoting sooner to talking about a national campaign? And the Clinton camp begins the pivoting today with a conference call about the Feb. 5 Georgia primary, not coincidentally, the first primary Bill Clinton won in 1992.

*** John's back, but where is Rudy? McCain comes back to Iowa. With pretty much every political reporter in the world here -- and looking for a fresh story to write or air -- expect McCain's return to Iowa to get major coverage, perhaps even surge-like coverage. A strong third place finish (even if it's 10 points behind second) could be enough to boomerang McCain in New Hampshire. But where's Rudy? We should have made more of this yesterday, but the candidate took two days off the trail -- two days! -- with less than a week to go before New Hampshire. He returns to the trail today to stump in New Hampshire, where he will unveil a new Afghanistan policy that calls for an Iraq-like military surge.

*** Here's Huck… : Up until the last month or so, we've always wondered if Huckabee REALLY wants to win the GOP nomination. After all, it's probably not incorrect to note that he's met with members of the press more than with actual voters. And now, the AP writes, Huckabee is headed to California after a couple of Iowa events this morning to appear on Leno. This coming ONE DAY before the caucuses. "It's just an incredible opportunity to be there, particularly the very first night he's back from the writer's strike," Huckabee said. "Besides, if all else fails and this whole process doesn't work out, maybe he needs a sidekick and I'll be auditioning tomorrow." The Leno gambit might get some big play, but it might also reinforce the image that Huckabee is more interested in getting press than winning the presidency. 

*** Weather update: It is currently 2-degrees outside -- yes, it is THAT cold here -- and it is supposed to warm up to 15 degrees today. But Caucus Day will seem balmy by comparison: It's expected to be mostly sunny in the Des Moines area on Thursday, with a high of 31 and a low of 21. And the weather in the rest of the state will be similar. 

*** On the trail: The final day of campaigning before the caucuses… Biden visits Burlington, Ottuwmwa, Oskaloosa, Coralville, and Cedar Rapids; Clinton stops in Indianola, Cedar Rapids, Davenport, Ottumwa, and Des Moines; Edwards campaigns in 12 different cities and towns, ending with a rally in West Des Moines featuring John Mellencamp; Huckabee hits Fort Dodge and Mason City; McCain returns to Iowa, visiting Dubuque, Davenport, and Urbandale; Obama is Davenport, Coralville, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, and Des Moines; Paul -- welcome back to Iowa! -- spends his day in Des Moines; Romney stops in Bettendorf, Cedar Rapids, Clear Lake, and West Des Moines; and Thompson Mason City, Waterloo, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport; and Bill Clinton campaigns in Burlington, Dubuque, Waterloo, Mason City, and Des Moines.

Countdown to Iowa: 1 day
Countdown to New Hampshire: 6 days
Countdown to Michigan: 13 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 17 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 24 days
Countdown to Florida: 27 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 34 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 307 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 384 days

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The day after the Des Moines Register poll came out, there's been a ton of reverb on exactly what the numbers mean. The Washington Post looks at Obama's strength among indies in the survey. And here's a good reminder from four years ago: "Only a small portion of Iowa's approximately 600,000 registered Democrats have historically shown up on caucus night. Four years ago, about 125,000 voters participated in Iowa's Democratic caucuses; 19 percent called themselves independents. But from the outset of this campaign, Obama's campaign has targeted independents as intensively as it has registered Democrats, bombarding them with phone calls, direct-mail pieces and personal visits."

Des Moines Register does a story on how all of the campaigns are expressing doubt over the turnout model in the poll. "Democratic pollsters and strategists agree that more independent voters nationally have supported Democrats than Republicans in the past two years. Likewise, they are seeing rising numbers of Iowa's unaffiliated voters show up as supporters of Democratic candidates for Thursday's caucuses. 'I'm sure it will be higher, but that just seems impossible,' Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster working for Delaware Sen. Joe Biden's campaign, said about the Register poll's independent figure. 'That would be a revolution.'"

The New York Times recaps yesterday's happenings in Iowa, including Romney vs. Huckabee, reactions to the Des Moines Register poll, Kucinich urging his supporters to back Obama if the congressman doesn't make threshold, Edwards' 36-hour marathon, and Huck's upcoming appearance on Leno. 

We're guessing many of you have noticed a certain red-haired New York Times columnist on the trail. Well, here's her first Iowa column. "Has Hillary truly changed, and grown from her mistakes? Has she learned to be less stubborn and imperious and secretive and vindictive and entitled? Or has she merely learned to mask her off-putting and self-sabotaging qualities better? If elected, would the old Hillary pop up, dragging us back to the dysfunctional Clinton kingdom?"

More from MoDo: "Oddly, Barack and Michelle Obama also radiate a sense that they are owed. Not for a lifetime of sublimation and humiliation, but for this onerous campaign, for offering themselves up to save and uplift the nation, even though it disrupted their comfortable lives… So it comes down to this: Will Queen Hillary reign? Will Prince Barack deign? And who is owed more?"

The Register calls Kucinich's second-choice backing of Obama "a symbolic gesture." "In 2004, Kucinich ran for president and waged a more aggressive Iowa campaign. In that campaign, the Ohio congressman made a deal with supporters of John Edwards that whichever candidate did not meet the 15-percent viability threshold in an individual caucus would throw his support to the other."

The New York Times front-pages how some Iowans are actually excluded from the caucus process. "Because the caucuses, held in the early evening, do not allow absentee voting, they tend to leave out nearly entire categories of voters: the infirm, soldiers on active duty, medical personnel who cannot leave their patients, parents who do not have baby sitters, restaurant employees on the dinner shift, and many others who work in retail, at gas stations and in other jobs that require evening duty."

The AP's Espo looks ahead to the battle in New Hampshire, which will occur right after Thursday. "So long, ethanol. Hello, taxes. More than geography changes when the 2008 presidential campaign leaves the land of flat -- a.k.a. Iowa -- for New Hampshire, the Granite State. The electorate is different, as is the blend of issues… [I]n New Hampshire, they care somewhat less about health care as an issue than Iowans do, and more about the economy. Not surprisingly, they were also less apt to say that jobs were plentiful locally."

"New Hampshire Democrats are more likely to be in union households and far less likely to attend church regularly than their brethren half a continent away. 'Iowa Democrats are more liberal,' says Stephanie Cutter, who worked for Kerry in both states in 2004. 'In New Hampshire, they're not more moderate, they're more libertarian, it seems.'"

The Union Leader writes up the 7 News/Suffolk poll. McCain has pulled into the lead in the Granite State, but Clinton has a double-digit lead over Obama, which was truly shocking to a lot of the campaigns who have indicated to us that Obama, not Clinton, is ahead in New Hampshire right now.

BIDEN: The candidate gets this headline in the Des Moines Register: "Biden sees largest throng of his campaign."

Biden "took a swipe at rivals for recent statements which he said showed they aren't ready to deal with problems in Pakistan," the Boston Globe writes. "Biden did not name his rivals, but made clear that his main focus was Senator Hillary Clinton of New York. 'One of the leading candidates said -- God love her,' Biden began…. 'But to say Musharraf is up for election! Musharraf was elected --fairly or unfairly -- president six months ago. It's a parliamentary election.'"

CLINTON: The Boston Globe picks up on Clinton's tone change to a more serious talk. "Racing across Iowa in the final, crucial days before tomorrow's Iowa caucuses, Clinton is pressing a case that is as much a warning of what could go wrong in America - with the wrong leader at the helm - as it is a call to make the country right again."

Clinton, yesterday, was as good as she's been on the trail. She seems more comfortable running on strength and experience again, and she appears to be in that "persevere" mode and that could come in handy as this campaign becomes more national, following New Hampshire.

The Los Angeles Times profiles the ever-profileable Teresa Vilmain.

DODD: The Des Moines Register profiles Dodd. He "has relied on his experience as he has pursued a longshot bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. He often points to changes he has made in the American policy landscape, including writing the Family and Medical Leave Act and helping reform election laws." But part of his run is "motivated by the fact that Dodd's father was one of the lead prosecutors during the Nuremburg Nazi war crimes tribunals," who was later censured, and he'd like to clear his name.

Is it really necessary to do the "Is Dodd taking advantage of his financial-sector ties" story?

EDWARDS: Is Edwards changing his position on Iraq? Not really, but it seems he doesn't want folks to believe Richardson's ads which lump Edwards in with Obama and Clinton as the three candidates who will not guarantee getting troops out of Iraq by 2013. "In one of his most detailed discussions to date about how he would handle Iraq as president, Mr. Edwards staked out a position that would lead to a more rapid and complete troop withdrawal than his principal rivals, Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, who have indicated they are open to keeping American trainers and counterterrorism units in Iraq."

"Elizabeth Edwards, his wife and political partner, who listened in on the interview from a seat across the aisle, intervened at the end of the session to underscore that Mr. Edwards did not intend to stop all training and was prepared to train Iraqi forces outside of the country. Mr. Edwards continued the theme while acknowledging that the benefits of such training would be limited."

While you were sleeping, NBC's Kevin Corke was traveling with Edwards on the candidate's all-nighter. At 2:34 a.m. CST, under a crescent moon, and with the outside temperatures hovering near zero, Democratic Edwards and his wife Elizabeth were warmly greeted by about 50 Iowans (and 24 members of the media) at a home in Creston, IA. It was the second after-midnight stop on the senator's 36-hour marathon push across the state.

Situated less than a mile from the local Dollar General, and a short jog from one of the town's five traffic lights, the beautifully renovated 1925 Adams Colonial owned by Karl and Jan Knock was full of energy, food and friends -- they were there to see the candidate up close. "It's a excellent opportunity," said Karl, 57, a native Iowan.  "Even though my wife and I don't back the same candidate at the moment (he's for Obama; she's for Edwards) we'll get together and back the Democratic nominee in November."

Corke adds that the senator and his wife spoke briefly, the former admitting, "I was asleep until about 15 minutes ago!" Both talked about the importance of turn out on caucus night.

On Morning Joe, Corke also chronicled how he, the candidate, and the press corps were bouncing from college town to small town, and will wrap up things tonight at a rally with John Mellencamp.

OBAMA: Per NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan, Obama's campaign went for enthusiastic crowds and big momentum last night, starting with a canvassing kick-off in Des Moines and ending the day with a 10:30 p.m. rally in Dubuque on a three-degree Iowa night. Obama played to his audience when he took the stage in Dubuque, riffing that only Iowans would take an election seriously enough to come out and hear a candidate at 10:30 pm on a bone-chilling New Year's night. But his wife Michelle may have had the best line of the night, telling the crowd she thinks they would be "out of their minds" to not vote for Obama.

The campaign did not release crowd numbers at their events, but the venues appeared smaller than what Obama usually has though they were filled with screaming supporters. But as one reporter told me tonight, don't put your money on crowds. He had covered Howard Dean in 2004, who two nights before the caucus had had 4,000 people in Iowa City but a disappointing third place finish on caucus night.

In Sioux City, a surprising large numbers of hands went up when Obama asked if voters were undecided. It was the one event where Obama chose to take questions. He also engaged voters at the rope line, laughing with one woman who still wasn't supporting him after he gave her a long-winded answer on his health-care plan, "What do I have to do to get your support?"

In the Concord Monitor, Ken Burns writes about why he's supporting Obama.

Are the liberal netroots becoming a bigger problem for Obama? Kos appears to have un-endorsed him.

The New York Times looks at Obama's efforts to court black voters.

Now that Obama and Kucinich have cut the first "second choice" deal, was the quid pro quo Obama calling for the inclusion of EVERYONE in Saturday's New Hampshire debate? Indeed, Hillary and Obama called for the organizers to include everyone; Edwards says he's staying out of it.

GIULIANI: He "will announce a new four-point war strategy in New Hampshire today, an effort to refocus a primary campaign season for Republicans that has centered in recent weeks less on foreign affairs and more on immigration and domestic issues," the New York Sun writes. "Specifically, Mr. Giuliani will call for a new military surge in Afghanistan, a change in the way America's spies are promoted so that officers are rewarded for finding actionable intelligence and not just the number of agents they recruit, and a new war on Al Qaeda's intricate network of Web sites, sites used both to communicate with its agents in the field and to recruit new jihadis."

Does this mean Giuliani is trying to get back is national security credentials that McCain seems to have taken away?

"Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa said Tuesday it was a 'big mistake' for GOP presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani to cut back on his campaigning in Iowa."

HUCKABEE: The Politico: "Mike Huckabee's last-minute decision to pull the plug on an attack ad against Mitt Romney has been the talk of Iowa in recent days. But it turns out there is more to the story than Huckabee explained at his now-famous, had-to-see-it-to-believe it news conference Monday. Politico has learned that his campaign burned about $150,000 in scarce campaign cash on TV footage, radio spots, and mail pieces that his strategists wanted to use-before the candidate decided he didn't. This figure is considerably larger than the $30,000 cost of the single ad Huckabee cited at the news conference, where he drew mocking laughter from reporters by righteously announcing that he had decided to 'do the right thing' by staying positive -- even while playing the negative spot for the assembled group."

Longtime watchers of Ed Rollins probably saw Monday's press conference coming. Rollins didn't name his autobiography, "Bare Knuckles and Back Rooms" for nothing. The New York Times: "Rollins, however, was impatient with Mr. Huckabee's nice-guy approach, telling a reporter just the day after Christmas that if Mr. Romney's attacks continued the Huckabee campaign would soon throw some punches of its own. 'I'm an old boxer,' he said."

The Washington Post also notes the uneasy Rollins-Huckabee relationship.

MCCAIN: Attention Mike Huckabee: This is how you get a negative ad into the mainstream media. Release a Web ad and let media wring their hands to decide whether to cover it. Most media did choose to cover it. It's a TOUGH spot but will it ever see the broadcast airwaves?

PAUL: The New York Times covers Paul's huge 4th quarter fundraising haul. "For most of the candidates, the fourth quarter was more about stumping than fund-raising. Not so for Representative Ron Paul of Texas, who has achieved that Howard Dean-esque feat of turning fervent netroots support into cold, hard cash. The libertarian-leaning Republican raked in $19.5 million over the last three months, which is likely to be more than any other G.O.P. candidate's haul. (As the campaign points out in its release this morning, the figure is over $9 million more than any Republican raised in the third quarter."

ROMNEY: The candidate admitted yesterday he's put more of his own money into his campaign, but he won't say how much.

Salon's Mike Madden looks at the state of Romney's campaign. "Romney, who runs for president like a corporate CEO, clearly doesn't enjoy the idea of falling behind a rival whose campaign style sometimes seems more like, 'Hey kids, let's put on a show!' While his operation has poured millions of dollars into 'comparison ads' that highlight the low points of his rivals' records, he's hitting as many as seven events a day all around the state. His top-notch get-out-the-caucus organization could still pull him to victory, but facing the prospect of a crippling loss to an outspent underdog, he's working harder than ever now to finish strong."

Yet another harsh anti-Romney piece in the New Hampshire Union Leader, which has endorsed McCain. This from publisher Joe McQuaid: "When the campaigning gets serious and the gloves come off, McCain sticks to the facts; Romney plays loose with them."

THOMPSON: He dismissed polls showing him fourth in Iowa. "'I have a very special, secret strategy' for the last two days before Thursday's caucuses, he joked. 'It's called staying on the bus and meeting people one on one.'"

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
COUNCIL BLUFFS, Iowa -- The Clinton campaign is planning to make "door or phone contact" with all of their top supporters across Iowa in the next two days before the caucuses.

Those supporters -- in caucus campaign parlance -- are classified as Ones and Twos. (Ones are people who've signed a supporter card, and Twos are those who have pledged their support verbally. The ranking goes from One to Five, with Fives being people who would never support the candidate -- even if he or she cured their child's cancer, spokesman Jay Carson joked.)

He said it was important for campaigns to stay in contact with supporters to ensure they still plan to caucus for their candidate. It's especially true when a campaign is relying heavily on first-time caucus-goers. "Sixty percent of our Ones and Twos have never caucused before," said Carson, who noted that was more than any other candidate, as far as they could tell. (Just asking, is Hillary's camp playing the expectations game here?)

Part of that get-out-the-vote effort will include "door knockers" for all the for "Ones and Twos" in the state. The nearly two-foot long pieces of thick paper -- decorated with color photos on one side and print on the other -- are designed to hang from door knobs.    

One side reads: "A new beginning for America starts with us!" and it includes a line from the Des Moines Register endorsement.
    
The other side reminds people when and where to caucus, and includes the admonition: "I'm Iowa, the contest for the Democratic nomination is as close as it has ever been. If just one out of every three Hillary supporters decides not to participate in the Iowa caucuses, we won't be successful. Hillary Clinton can provide the leadership and the new beginning America needs. But to do so, Hillary will need all of her supporters to join together at their local caucus locations."