From NBC's Mark Murray
As it turns out, that infamous negative Huckabee TV ad that the former Arkansas governor said he was pulling -- yet showed to the media anyway -- actually ran in a few places. Per a release from the Huckabee campaign.

"The Governor made it clear at the press conference on Monday that his decision to pull the ad was made after his media consultant sent it to stations statewide," campaign manager Chip Saltsman said in the release. "He ordered the campaign to pull the ad before the press conference and the campaign gave their best effort by alerting every broadcast station and cable system in the state. It was New Year's Eve and we knew that a few stations might not be able to make the change prior to the January 1st holiday."

More from Saltsman: "We were informed yesterday that unfortunately a few network affiliates played the ad. We contacted them immediately and they admitted to our buyer that they mistakenly aired the ad, and they pulled it."

NBC News reports based upon entrance poll and early precinct results,  Huckabee is leading Romney in the Republican straw poll. On the Democratic side, the entrance poll and precinct results show Obama with a lead. Clinton and Edwards are vying for second.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
In an unusual expression of faith at a political party headquarters, supporters are standing in circles, holding hands and offering prayers in the middle of the Huckabee ballroom. They appear to be families with adults and children standing together.  This is happening amid the piped in rock music, media standups and giant screen coverage. 

We are shooting tape. Lots of still cameras buzzing around the group too. 

We'll find out who they are when they're finished praying.

NBC Freelance Producer Mike Sulzberger reports he is caucusing at the City Hall in Ames, Iowa  (corner of 5th and Grand) and anecdotely says that the place is packed. It is a Democratic caucus site. This is his first caucus, but his neighbor has caucused at this location before and says there are a great deal more people there in comparison to the 2004 turnout.  Much like at location that where David Gregory is, people were lined up outside the door way past the official start time of the caucus. 

He adds: 400 exactly here. Need to have 60 to be viable. Rough look says Dodd, Biden, won't be viable. Kucinich probably won't. Richardson and Edwards have no clear line between them, but Richardson looks viable. Looks like Obama has most here, Edwards a close second, but again, tough to tell where Richardson and Edwards divide. Biggest surprise here looks like Hillary. Not a large group for her -- guessing less than 20%.

From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
WEST DES MOINES, Iowa -- Welcome to Westridge Elementary School in West Des Moines, Iowa.  The noisy halls of Westridge are currently abuzz with the opening acts of not one but three caucuses -- two Democratic precincts (#214, in the school library and #315, in the cafeteria) and one Republican precinct (#214, in the gymnasium) are convening here tonight.  

The hallways here are crowded with voters, many of whom have flattened the new registration paperwork up against the tile walls to fill it out. New registers -- and there are many of them -- are peppering the precinct captains with questions about how to register and where to go. 

Of six Democrats I've talked to so far, four are first time caucus-goers. In fact, the precinct captain just came in to announce that he needed more pens -- the influx of newbies filling out paperwork are making writing utensils come in short supply.

As far as organization within the caucus site, Team Hillary is out in force, with an elaborate string of signage to indicate their corner at one site and an array of Hillary photos that mark their territory at the other. Biden volunteers were the first of the bunch to arrive and set up.

A Dodd volunteer just showed up. Until then, there was a single man (a firefighter himself) standing with a single yellow Dodd sign. I figured he was the precinct captain; turns out that he's a first-time caucus goer too. "I think I'm the only guy here for Dodd," he told me dejectedly.

One of the many first-timers I talked to is Joan Lynch Luckett, who came with her 18 year old daughter Devin.  Joan's inaugural caucus vote will be for Edwards, who she says she liked in 2004.  When I asked her why start caucusing now, she replied "My friends around the country kept telling me 'Give us options.'"   She says that one of Iowa's responsibilities is to firewall a national frontrunner who would steamroll to victory without the scrutiny of a small state. 

As for Joan's daughter Devin?  She says she's not sure yet if she'll follow mom and caucus for Edwards, or whether she'll go with the other candidate that she likes -- Barack Obama. 

We're called to order. 

Game on.

From MSNBC.com's Tom Curry
Huge Dem turnout here in West Des Moines precinct #115.

About 600 people crowded into the auditorium at Indian Hills Junior High.

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
Tim Albrecht, the Iowa press secretary for Romney, announced as the press boarded the bus tonight that the press bus has logged more than 1900 miles since Mitt Romney got to the state last Thursday and started traveling on Friday.

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
DES MOINES, Jan 3 -- Hillary Clinton dropped by Lovejoy Elementary School -- otherwise known as Precinct 90 -- on Thursday, just as it began to fill up with caucusgoers. The senator spent about five minutes shaking hands with people waiting in the hallway to enter the school's gym.

"I feel great. This is so exciting to see this in person," she said.

Clinton did not enter the gym, where more than 100 people had gathered as of 6:38 pm. The doors were set to close officially at 7:00 pm.

Bill and Chelsea Clinton also made brief visits to area sites before heading to the Hotel Fort Des Moines to watch returns in a room with Hillary, who was expected to address the crowd at 9:00pm, according to the campaign.

NBC News can report based upon early entrance poll results,  Huckabee and Romney are fighting for first place in the Republican straw poll. On the Democratic side, the early entrance poll results show Clinton and Obama with initial support greater than the other candidates.

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
WAUKEEE, Iowa -- Romney was swarmed by photogs at the first caucus site and had a hard time making it through the crowd. He signed pictures and took photos with supporters, and Utah Sen. Bob Bennett stays behind to do his bidding.

A quartet of seniors stood at the door as he entered. Two of those said they were voting for Huckabee. Asked if he knew that Romney was about to show up there, one man said, "Well, I thank him for coming, but I'm voting for Huckabee."

A man from a different group of voters said he was voting for Thompson because he doesn't want the job and the people pushed him to run, suggesting that Thompson's strategy did work for some.

Romney exited from a different entrance than he came in, and his traveling press secretary was spotted hustling back into the school as the press was leaving, presumably to run to the correct area where Romney's transportation was waiting.

Although Romney's been known to change clothes mid-day before, he was wearing the same dark blue suit and bright blue tie he was wearing this morning. As he eased his way out of the crowd to leave, he shouted, "Now get out there and vote!"

From NBC's David Gregory and David Gelles
Inside the Westridge elementary school in West Des Moines, this Democratic caucus site is packed. Huge turnout here.

Only 86 showed up in 2004. Tonight, the line is out the door.

It looks like almost 200 here.

Registration is still open.

*** UPDATE *** Per NBC's David Gelles, the official number of participants at this particular Democratic caucus site is 267

Only 86 showed up in 2004.

*** UPDATE II *** Per NBC's David Gregory, this is actually a GOP-leaning area in West Des Moines...

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
DES MOINES, IA -- Romney's already got the ways of Washington down, even if he is selling himself as an outsider governor who can bring wide-ranging change to the broken Beltway.
 
With a tongue-in-cheek gust of vanity, he noted in his speech before the employees at Principle Financial Group here that Huckabee's campaign chairman said yesterday he'd like to knock Romney's teeth out. "My only comment on that is: Don't touch the hair," he counterpunched to laughter.
 
There's been some dialogue in recent days about the degree to which Romney is bellying up to President Bush in the hopes of grabbing big swaths of the Bush base, or whether he is trying to distance himself by offering criticisms of the president's handling of Iraq after the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime. Closer scrutiny of his comments on energy independence reveals a can-do approach that indirectly pokes at Bush's 2006 State Of The Union address in which the president dramatically declared that Americans are "addicted to oil."
 
Discussing energy today, Romney sounded the clarion call that: "It's time for us to stop using the rhetoric or political speak about becoming less dependent on foreign oil and finally actually putting in place a strategy which puts us on a track to becoming energy independent."
 
Romney's own energy seems to be dragging today, as he didn't deliver some of his big applause lines with the same zeal that he usually does. But he used the values jargon so crucial to the Iowa Republican base in this, one of the last speeches he'll give before Iowans caucus tonight: "Most of us are family-oriented. Americans love families. We marry, we have kids, we give them the values we think are important."
 
Asked by an audience member if he will continue the attack ads that directly pinpoint his opponents if he gets to the general election, he answered, "Absolutely. You can bet that we're going talk about the differences on issues." He added, "And one thing I'm also going to point out -- particularly in the Republican campaign -- I'm not going to attack the character of the other people I'm running against." But shifting back a bit he said, "You're not going to hear me saying that somebody else is dishonorable or dishonest or that they're not smart or that they're not wise. I'm not going to do that."
 
Despite Romney's gloves-on, go-to-the-mattresses speak for the Republican cause, he offered his double-sided pitch on how Democrats are wrong on the issues but how he has the ability to work across the aisle. "I learned that the only way I could do things was on a collaborative basis," he said of his time as governor of Massachusetts. And he went on about the Democrats he worked with in the Bay State: "We had dinners with our wives; we had a personal relationship of trust." 
 
Still, he ended: "Washington will have to change or it will be sweep the bums out. And no one wants that to happen in Washington at least," with Republican Sens. Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Robert Bennett of Utah and Wayne Allard of Colorado supporting him in the front row.

From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
CEDAR RAPIDS, IA -- On caucus Day, Edwards' priorities were in eastern Iowa. He and his wife Elizabeth stopped first at The Mill restaurant in Iowa City to greet supporters and then headed north to his Cedar Rapids field office. Edwards also stopped in Iowa City and Cedar Rapids yesterday toward the end of his 36-hour Marathon for the Middle Class.

With less than four hours remaining to the caucus, Edwards told supporters who were making calls in the Cedar Rapids office that he is counting on them. "We've got a few more hours, and then we gotta get your people to the caucuses," he said. "In the caucuses themselves, are we gonna be strong? There you go. And reach out to any of those caucus-goers whose candidates are not viable and make sure they end up in the Edwards camp. All the information indicates they're very attracted to us, so go get 'em. That's where we're counting on you guys, the precinct captains, to be our advocates."

For her part, Elizabeth Edwards urged them to arrive early, crediting the idea to Iowa First Lady Mari Culver, who traveled with the Edwardses today. "I know traditionally it's get there by 6:30, but you know, if it's bigger crowds or if you all want to organize your people or if you want to start working on those people who might not have viable candidates, it's OK to ask your people to get there a little bit early so you can really be organized," she said. "That'll also allow you to identify anybody that you thought was gonna be there who might not be there."

After she spoke and Edwards complimented her, a man in the crowd asked Elizabeth Edwards whether she has a sister. "Uh-oh, that's a bad question," John Edwards replied, laughing.

"Actually, I do," Elizabeth said. "Would you like her number?"

The Edwardses rode in the Main Street Express again today after it had electrical problems at the beginning of the marathon campaign swing two days ago. From Cedar Rapids they were bound for Des Moines. The Edwards caucus party starts at 8:00 pm ET at the Renaissance Savery in downtown Des Moines, and Edwards will be en route to New Hampshire after midnight tonight.

From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
HAILEAH, FL -- The Giuliani campaign is zigging as the other Republican campaigns zag, spending caucus night rallying a mostly Cuban-American audience outside of Miami.

But campaign officials say they aren't here because they're expecting a poor showing in Iowa. For them, the battle is Florida -- and the time is now.

Campaign aides note that they are actively reaching out to potential absentee voters in the Sunshine State, and believe that more people will have the potential to vote here today than in Iowa, since 117,000 absentee ballot requests have been received throughout the state.

The campaign is pushing supporters to vote by absentee ballot, because it minimizes weather, long lines, and other circumstances keeping people from the polls. The campaign estimates they are reaching out to 100,000 voters each week in Florida, and stressing the early voting.

Look for Giuliani to talk up the Floridians going to the polls when he makes the rounds of television stations this evening from a Miami studio.

From NBC's Andy Merten and Abby Livingston
Something that's been missing from the political landscape since the writer's strike have been laughs. The candidates have tried to fill the void, not always successfully. Comedy on the campaign trail can be a double-edged sword. Sometimes a quick quip can endear a candidate to hundreds, but sometimes candidates' attempts at funny solicit more eye-rolling than knee-slapping.

Just last night, Clinton went on Letterman and said that for eight weeks, Dave's been off the air; "Oh well, all good things come to an end," she panned. Since they've hit the trail nearly a year ago, candidates' jokes have run the gamut: from the good, the bad, to the just plain ugly. On the stump, during debates, and even in paid television ads, candidates have used humor to woe early state voters -- and often faltered.

Clinton has joked about "evil men" and knowing something about that; Romney dropped a line from his repertoire about a hotel worker seeing his wife in a towel; and Obama has also joked about his marriage and doing laundry.

For more, click here.

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
DES MOINES, IA -- Obama likes to use the word "definition of madness" to describe how his opponents claim they can change Washington.

But the term could also describe Obama's last pitch to voters at the food court at Kaleidoscope, a multi-story shopping center, just blocks from Polk Convention Center here. Entering through a side entrance with his wife Michelle, Obama was immediately mobbed by the print journalists, cameras, and photographers -- but also the servers behind the counter at the Maid Rite and Subway Shops and Iowans of every stripe (young, old, middle aged, even the owner of the Panda West Chinese Restaurant came running out to shake the senator's hands).

As he shook hands, posed for pictures and signed scraps of paper, campaign signs, and even a copy of his book, Obama unabashedly asked for everyone's vote. "Are you caucusing for me? I want you caucusing for me," Obama told the crowd as he shook hand after hand. Most said yes and some said no.

Kelli Schaefer, a 28-years-old from Altoona, got the most time with the senator, though. She was undecided. Obama pitched her with a mini-version of his stump speech, but after a few minutes Schaefer was still unconvinced. "I'm really looking for the best person who can help the middle class," she told Obama.  

"I'm just going to go in undecided," she told reporters later. When asked if she was just going to go with the group that had the most supporters, she denied saying it wasn't about just picking a winner.

And if Iowans like to ask questions, they were throwing as many at the senator as the press normally does. After Obama greeted a little boy, his dad asked who Obama would appoint to the Supreme Court. "Someone who also has life experience," Obama said. Another voter asked about his tax policies. One woman, a nurse, told the senator she was caucusing for him and said he needed to do more to increase the pay that nurses receive. Quick on his feet, Obama threw back, "We also need to increase the pay for nursing professors, that's part of the reason we have a shortage." The woman was duly impressed.

Reporters tried to get some questions in, too, but mostly got monosyllabic answers back from senator.
,
How do you feel today, senator? "Good," he said.

Another question: "What do you want to say to Iowans?"

Obama: "I love Iowa."

But he did pause to riff on his friend, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick. A local Boston station asked Obama if he could pull off a Patrick-like win. Obama laughed and said, "I was elected to the Senate first."

*** UPDATE *** Obama also had a moment similar to Bill and Hillary Clinton a few weeks ago. "Mr. Obama, can you sign this for me?" a man said pushing a dollar bill at Obama.

"I can't sign dollar bills," Obama told him. "It's against the law and I've got all these federal officials here. They'd arrest me. I'd sign something else though, if you can find a piece of paper."

Obama eventually signed a piece of campaign lit for the man. When Bill and Hillary were at a Hy-vee grocery store a in Des Moines, Hillary, llike Obama turned down a request to sign the bill. But Bill had signed it, laughing "You know this is illegal right." 

From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
WEST DES MOINES, Iowa -- Despite swirling rumors that Fred Thompson may be on the verge of dropping out of the presidential race if he performs poorly in tonight's caucus, the senator from Tennessee urged supporters today to pull off a bombshell victory in Iowa. 

"Let's go out and shock the world," he bellowed to a cheering crowd of about at a hotel in West Des Moines this morning. "Let's do something great for our country!"

At times uncharacteristically enthusiastic, Thompson spoke optimistically about his positive momentum in the state. "The crowds have been better and better and better, and enthusiasm is building and building and building," he told a crowd of about 200 at a hotel in West Des Moines. "We're going to have a wonderful day and a wonderful night."

Thompson's poll numbers in Iowa have slid dramatically in recent months as voters and pundits alike have questioned his fervor for the office. But he insisted today that he believes in his capacity to be the president who leads America into a better future. "I'd be less than honest with you if I didn't think I believe I am that man," he said with a flourishing crescendo. "And with your help I will be that man."

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
DES MOINES, Iowa -- Now that Iowa caucuses are finally here, just how much was spent on TV ads in the state? The answer, at least to us, is astounding.

According to various campaign sources, the Democratic and Republican candidates and various interest groups have spent more than $50 million in TV ads here in Iowa this year. That is more than five times the amount from 2004, when a combined $9.1 million was spent in the state.

Obama (more than $9.5 million) has spent the most among all the candidates -- followed by Clinton (more than $7.5 million), Romney ($7 million-plus), Edwards ($4 million), and Huckabee ($1.4 million).

And consider this: The three top-tier Dems have spent a total of $21 million -- or $140 a vote based on 150,000 turnout. Or this: Based on 85,000 Iowa Republicans turning out it, Romney's and Huckabee's combined $8.4 million-plus comes out to about $100 per GOP vote.

And based on a 235,000 turnout for both Democrats and Republicans, the $50 million-plus total spending comes out to more than $210 a vote.

Also, the top campaigns have spent some $2 million to $3 million each on direct mail. That's another $15 million. And the spending doesn't end there. Clinton and Obama have about 200 paid staffers in the state, and Edwards has about 150.

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
Huckabee is pre-taping the Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson, which will air tonight.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
Romney goes after McCain on taxes, immigration and that he's essentially had his chance in Washington in this 30-second ad, running in New Hampshire. It cuts together man-on-the-street-style interviews with New Hampshire families hitting McCain on his record.

[YouTube:mfRBUuO6jB8]

Here's the script for "Remember" (TV:30):

ROMNEY: "I'm Mitt Romney and I approved this message."
BOB DUFFY: "I believe John McCain's war record is outstanding."
MARIE PALING: "He's a true patriot and has served his country long and well."
BOB DUFFY: "However, his record in the US Senate leaves a lot to be desired."
GENE BOIS: "John McCain has been one of those Republicans that have been wrong on tax cuts."
RAY BRUN: "Opposing tax cuts that would have helped our family, supporting amnesty for illegal immigrants, taking jobs away from Americans."
COLLETT HILL: "He wrote the amnesty bill that America rejected."
BOB DEGANGE: "He's not really listened to the American people."
MARIE PALING: "He's had his chance in Washington to make things better."

From NBC's Ben Weltman
In his first event of the day, Edwards fired up his crowd of volunteers at the United Steelworkers Local 164 in Des Moines.

"We are going to work through tonight, through the caucus, we are going to have a brief but intense victory celebration tonight when the caucuses finish," Edwards chanted. "And then, those of you who are here, we ask you to go with us as we leave Iowa tonight, and go to New Hampshire and future states. Because this movement and this wave is going to go forward."

"GO JOHN GO" chants broke out during and after his speech bringing a rolling start to Edwards' day.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
DES MOINES, IA -- This long journey actually began in earnest two days after the 2006 midterm elections, when Tom Vilsack jumped into the presidential race (though he later dropped out in February). It continued to Clinton's January declaration, "I'm in, and I'm in it to win"; to Springfield, IL, where Obama made his announcement; to Dearborn, MI, where Romney made his; and even to this September, when Thompson officially got into the GOP race. (By the way, it is true that Rudy never actually announced.) It took us to more debates than we can remember (the Fight in Philly, the YouTubes, the widely panned Des Moines Register ones, where even Alan Keyes showed up). We witnessed discussions and disputes over serious issues (Iraq, Pakistan, health care, immigration) and not so serious ones (Rudy's support for the Red Sox, kindergarten ambitions, teenage cocaine use, cleavage, UFO sightings). And we can't forget Bill Clinton back on the campaign trail, the return of Elizabeth Edwards' cancer, the $400 haircut, Norman Hsu and Tony Rezko, Oprah and Chuck Norris, the Ron Paul Revolution, Mitt's speech on faith, Angry Edwards vs. Nice Edwards, Rudy's rise and fall (?), McCain's fall and rise (?), and Huckaboom to Huckabust (?).

VIDEO: NBC Politics Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on undecided Iowa voters and last minute efforts by candidates to get voters to the caucuses.

*** A guide to the post-caucus spin: That's the prologue to the first presidential contest, which -- finally -- begins tonight in Iowa. And no matter the results, (win, lose, or tie), the post-caucuses spin will be overwhelming. But here is a quick guide beforehand: No one HAS to win more than Edwards. A victory over two celebrity candidates will be a significant feat, but a loss (or even a tie) will be hard to overcome. If Clinton wins, strike the inevitability pose; a tie, and she lives for another day (although her campaign will have to defend having 60%-plus voting against her); a second-place loss is recoverable, and third place would be a near disaster, especially if Obama comes in first. Speaking of, we can't imagine a scenario in which Obama wins the Democratic nomination but loses Iowa. Movements need victories, and no one may be better equipped to feed off a victory than Obama. "We do have to do well in Iowa," he admitted on TODAY. But movement candidacies have to have victories; they die quick deaths if they lose. Just ask Howard Dean.

*** The GOP side: Spending as little as he has, a Huckabee win will be seen as a tremendous upset. But for Iowa to catapult him into New Hampshire and beyond, the win needs to be big. A loss and Huckabee is like George Mason in the NCAA tournament a few years back -- a great story until they lose, and once they do, everyone forgets about them. For Romney, Huckabee actually gave him a gift: He made Iowa relevant again on the GOP side. A Romney win will mean something. But he can't afford to go 0-2 in the first two contests. The campaign swears they can still win in Michigan if they lose the first two. But that seems like a stretch -- right now. In the race for third, McCain (or even a surprise Giuliani) finishing in that place would probably resonate the loudest. But woe unto any GOP front-runner finishing behind Paul. For more on the likely post-caucus spin, click here.

*** A caucus primer: The caucuses will be called to order at 7:30 pm ET (6:30 pm local time) on the Democratic side, and they begin at 8:00 pm ET (7:00 pm local time) on the GOP side. Democratic candidates have to hit a 15% threshold of support in each precinct caucus to win delegate equivalents, and supporters of candidates who don't attain viability can realign with other candidates. By comparison, there is not a second-choice aspect on the GOP side; the Republican results are simply a "straw vote" of everyone who attends. Anyone can caucus in either party: A participant simply has to prove residency and register to vote in that party that night. So independents can caucus on either side, and Republicans can re-register as Democrats that night and caucus, and vice versa. The turnout on the Dem side could be anywhere from 125,000 (what it was in 2004) to 150,000-160,000 (and perhaps even higher). Since two of the major GOP candidates -- Giuliani and McCain -- aren't spending a ton of resources in the state, Republican turnout is likely to be lower than the Democrats; figures being tossed around are 60,000 to 80,000.

*** Some final caucus thoughts: Support spread out is never as powerful as it is clustered. One campaign manager told First Read to look for Biden to beat Richardson on delegates, even though Richardson will probably have more supporters statewide. And this is something that could occur in general: It's possible, in a very close caucus vote, for a candidate to win without having the most supporters statewide. Also, if a slew of independents do participate in the Democratic caucuses tonight, it will be a continuation in the trend of indie voters leaning to the Democrats. Will Democrats end up with a 2-1-turnout advantage over the GOP tonight? Could it be more? 3-1? This is one of the more important stories that won't get as much attention tonight. And finally, not to sound too cynical, but when the average voter who is tuning in for the first time tonight -- and they see Giuliani doing his post-caucus TV interviews from Miami -- will they realize he's there for the Jan. 29 primary or will they think he's still vacationing?

*** Weather update: As of this writing, it is 9 degrees in the Des Moines area, but the day is supposed to be partly sunny, with a high of 28 degrees. Per NBC affiliate WHO-TV, the temperature at 7:00 pm ET (right before Caucus Time) will be 24 degrees, a bit warmer than it has been the past few days. The weather is expected to be similar across the state.

*** Caucus party locations: All are in the Des Moines area… Biden has his at the Science Center; Clinton's is at the Hotel Fort Des Moines; Dodd, the Temple for Performing Arts; Edwards, the Savery Renaissance; Huckabee, the Embassy Suites Downtown; Obama, Hyvee Hall; Richardson, the Quality Inn; Romney, the Sheraton West Des Moines; and Thompson, the Marriott Downtown.

*** On the trail: Elsewhere in Iowa, Biden stops in Waterloo, Dubuque, and Davenport; Dodd is in Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, and Des Moines; Edwards visits volunteers in Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Davenport; Huckabee stops in Burlington and Grinnell; McCain stops by four Iowa cities/towns before traveling to New Hampshire, where he holds a media avail; Romney hits Des Moines and West Des Moines; and Thompson visits West Des Moines and Council Bluffs. Also, Giuliani campaigns in New Hampshire.

Countdown to New Hampshire: 5 days
Countdown to Michigan: 12 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 16 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 23 days
Countdown to Florida: 26 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 33 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 306 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 383 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.

So when will we know? Expect to see the GOP results first (maybe 8:30 or 9:00 pm ET), and if the GOP candidates are smart; they'll do their victory/concession speeches early, because competing with Obama and Clinton may be difficult as the night wears on. On the Dem side, results may take longer to calculate, particularly if the electorate is as different as some believe it might be.

The Los Angeles Times covers the last day of campaigning. "The costliest, most competitive race in the history of the Iowa caucuses wound to a cliffhanging finish Wednesday, as a crowded field of presidential hopefuls made their final pleas -- on the airwaves, in churches, in crowded gymnasiums -- on the eve of a vote that will lift some contenders and cripple the rest."

The AP's Mike Glover offers some hints at what to watch for tonight. In the GOP race, "[c]heck Plymouth County Thursday evening in remote northwest Iowa-chilly home of Blue Bunny ice cream and a hotbed of evangelical activists who could sway the first voting of the 2008 presidential campaign… Plymouth's county seat of Le Mars bills itself as "the ice cream capital of the world" because of the local dairy, but this year in politics "that's Huckabee territory," says David Roederer, a veteran activist who's been advising John McCain's Iowa campaign this ear. A big turnout could be a sign that evangelicals-accounting in past cycles for up to 40 percent of the Republican caucus vote-are delivering for the one-time Baptist minister."

Meanwhile, "Democrats might get an early take on their caucuses from Newton, a company town battered by the closing of Maytag Corporation's big plant… It's a Democratic town of about 15,000 and used to be the home for Maytag, an iconic Iowa manufacturer that has shut down and tossed thousands out of work. John Edwards has used that closure as a symbol for his populist message that rich and powerful businesses are out to exploit working families. He even used a former Maytag worker as the voice for his closing television commercial. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama have contested the town, and it could be an early barometer." 

"All eyes on Iowa" is the headline on the front page of the Boston Globe with pictures of Huckabee playing the guitar in front of a laughing Kevin Eubanks on the Tonight Show, Romney shaking hands, Clinton, Obama and Edwards speaking. The Globe writes, "For GOP, a test today of whether money talks."

National Journal's Ron Brownstein breaks down the message pitches of the Big Three Democrats.

NBC's Mark Whitaker shares these questions with First Read: If Obama wins, how important will it be that the Iowa caucuses were held so early in January, when college kids are still on vacation? Instead of being back at school, will they now be free to kill a whole evening exercising their democratic rights? On the other hand, if he doesn't win, won't it be the latest and most definitive proof yet that the "youth vote" always disappoints?

For those looking for good polling data heading into tonight, check out pollster.com.

"Thousands more Iowa independent voters are expected to turn out for Democratic presidential candidates than Republicans at today's Iowa caucuses," the Des Moines Register writes. 

The New York Times' Leibovich: "It's the groggy, nerve-sizzling season on the trail, and forget the attack ads and last-minute scrapping. Any candidate will attest that the epic fight now is against sleep deprivation, the gaffe-inducing monster that looms over every campaign in its final hours."

McClatchy calls this "the longest, costliest election run-up in American history, the first since 1920 with no heir apparent in either party. Both parties are eager to turn the page on the George W. Bush era -- particularly Democrats angry about the Iraq war, but also Republicans unhappy about such issues as illegal immigration."

A CNN/WMUR New Hampshire poll shows Clinton with a 34%-30% lead over Obama. Edwards has 17%. On the GOP side, the poll has Romney and McCain tied in New Hampshire at 29%. Giuliani is third with 12%; Huckabee has 10%; Paul comes in fifth at 7%.

The Concord Monitor: Despite criticism from the chairmen of both state parties, WMUR is sticking with its debate criteria -- finish in the top four in Iowa's caucuses or have rated above 5% in one of the latest four national or New Hampshire opinion polls. And NH GOP chair Fergus Cullen "hadn't heard any news about a change in format" in the Fox debate.
 
Union Leader publisher Joe McQuaid says it is "a perversion of the New Hampshire primary process to have serious, if longshot, contenders excluded from this possibly significant TV exposure."

BIDEN: "There's an old expression attributed to Mark Twain," Biden said per the Des Moines Register. "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated." "In a speech full of analogies, Biden called those in attendance the final jury for his closing argument, adding that the race remains "wide open," regardless of the three front-runners, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards."

CLINTON: Per NBC's Lauren Applebaum, this is what Clinton said right before the Late Show with Letterman started (it was before the intro, not during the actual show): "Dave has been off the air for eight long weeks because of the writers strike. Tonight, he's back. Oh, well. All good things come to an end."

In her last major appeal to Iowa voters before they head to their precincts, Clinton brought out her most popular surrogate -- her husband -- as well as her daughter and her mother to rally several hundred supporters last night, NBC/NJ's Athena Jones reports. In brief remarks before Hillary took the mic, Bill Clinton joked that his wife was afflicted with the responsibility gene but that after the last seven years, that's what Washington needed. 

"If you live to be a hundred, you still have more yesterdays than tomorrows. When that happens, what you really care about in public service and the only thing that matters is whether people are better off than when you started and whether our children and grandchildren have a better future. If that's your test, this is your candidate," he told the cheering crowd.

The audience greeted the New York senator -- who immediately followed her husband as speaker -- with chants of "Hillary, Hillary!" "I think we were all just reminded what it was like to have a Democratic president of our country," she said in a nod to her chief partner in politics. 

The senator went on to list several of the big name supporters present -- including Madeleine Albright, Wes Clark, Ted Danson, and Mary Steenburgen -- and added: "But mostly I'm here to say to thank you to all of you."

EDWARDS: Elizabeth Edwards called John Mellencamp "the musical voice of the working man in this country," and her husband John Edwards "the political voice of the working man in this country" as the Edwardses pressed into the last 24 hours before the Iowa caucus. The performance also brought to a close Edwards' 36-hour Marathon for the Middle Class.

John Mellencamp performed a five-song set last night to a packed room the Edwards campaign estimated was close to 3,000 people, NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller reports. Then Elizabeth Edwards, standing with the candidate and the couple's children, Cate, Jack and Emma Claire, took the opportunity to thank Edwards' surrogates. Edwards then delivered his stump speech in 18 minutes or so. From the back of the room, he showed no signs of exhaustion, and reporters questioned how he could go 36 hours without faltering and still be reading for multiple morning show appearances on caucus day. Wrapping up, he issued a final call to the caucus:

"Twenty-four hours from this moment, an historic moment will occur in American history, because right here in the heartland of America here in Iowa, you're going to rise up, you're going to stand up," he said. "You're gonna stand up and you're gonna say to America, enough is enough. We want our country back. We want our democracy back. We are better than this."

OBAMA: The most popular American in Kenya is probably Obama. It's why he approached Condi Rice to ask what he could do to help quell the violence there. But if things get worse, will Obama need to do more? Will he need to act as a mediator? What's the balance for a presidential candidate? 

"We have one last test," Obama told a packed crowd last night, NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan notes. And the crowd responded with screams, yells and chants of "Yes we can! Yes we can!" and "Si se puede! Si se puede!" Crowd estimates varied but a large gym was filled to the brim with people and the campaign also had an overflow room with around three hundred extra people.

Former South Carolina Gov. Jim Hodges endorsed Obama.

WHO-TV's Dave Price notes that Scarlett Johansson and Iowa native and Superman Returns star, Brandon Routh, showed up for Obama in Des Moines Wednesday night. Price also has a recording of Kucinich calling to tell people to caucus for Obama