It appears to be 1996 all over again -- but in reverse. Just like the Democrats in the cycle after the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress, Republicans this year are struggling keeping members of both the House and Senate from retiring. The number of incumbent House Republicans retiring or resigning is now up to 28, almost guaranteeing that the Democrats not only won't lose control in '06 but also will likely add to their majority. The Senate GOP retirement number is already high, giving the Democrats a great chance to add at least two to five new senators to their majority.

In the '96 cycle, Democrats couldn't prevent a slew of Democrats who either survived '94 (in the House) or didn't think they'd win in '96 (in the Senate) because the poll numbers for the incumbent Democratic president were horribly low. Of course, Clinton came back and ended up winning re-election handily. But the hole the congressional Democratic retirees dug was so deep, the Democrats still lost Senate seats and couldn't win back enough House seats to win back control.

From NBC's Chuck Todd
There were a few moments where it appeared McCain and Romney would really started tangling in tonight's CNN/L.A. Times/Politico debate, but it was just that, a precious few moments.

Romney wasn't happy about the criticism McCain leveled at him about timetables in Iraq. He said it was a dirty trick because it came days before Florida. Well, maybe so, but it should also serve as a comfort to nervous Republicans about McCain's ability to play hardball in the general. McCain may seem like a guy who likes to reach across the aisle but he's not afraid to get dirty. McCain will be a very clever general election candidate; it won't all be kumbaya with Clinton or Obama.

Romney's pushback, btw, that if this was an issue, then why didn't he raise it earlier, wasn't a great debate comeback moment. As I've noted before, Romney just doesn't come across well when he's angry.

Overall, Romney seemed simply ticked off. It was as if he realized the end was near and he didn't know how to stop it. He tried to go after McCain, politely mind you, but didn't trip the newly crowned frontrunner up.

The question Romney must be asking himself is what is his ultimate goal now? Should he do everything he can to stop McCain now or should he figure out how to run, but do so with dignity so he can keep his options open in the future, should McCain fail to win the general. As McCain is about to prove, the GOP regularly nominates the runners-up in previous primaries; Reagan, Bush and Dole to name a few. Romney, though, does need to play the conservative critic of McCain for a certain length of time in order to win the loyalty of the conservatives who aren't happy with McCain now. These folks could serve Romney well in '12 or '16.

McCain, in the role of frontrunner at a debate for the first time in nearly a year (well, actually, since the last time these guys met at the Reagan Library), proved to be more well spoken on domestic issues than he was at the last debate.

Going forward, assuming McCain is the GOP nominee, the Arizona Republican is going to have to get more comfortable talking about domestic issues or he will face much bigger problems in the general.  He was better tonight on the domestic front, but he's still got a ways to go.

BTW, I love this spin from McCain that if his tax cut plan had gotten through in 2001, instead of Bush's, he would be able to propose new tax cuts now. Now there's some optimism!

The most difficult thing for many of us watching these debates for a living is that we're having a hard time finding new things to say just as the candidates are having a hard time saying anything new.

For instance, how many times have I written some version of the following: Mike Huckabee probably stuck out for his humor and seemingly straight talk. Yet again, Huckabee got to play Mr. Nice Guy and it will probably be enough to siphon off conservative vote from Romney in order to deliver McCain a few more delegates than he should be winning if this were a pure 1-on-1.

But McCain may have won this debate before it ever started because the Giuliani endorsement today and the Schwarzenegger endorsement tomorrow appear to be trumping anything that happened tonight.

From NBC's Chuck Todd
I fully admit to now be reacting to the debate via TiVO now (some of us are trying to catch up on home life). Anyway, about half way through the debate, McCain was asked if he'd vote for his original immigration reform proposal and his response was that the bill won't get to the senate floor so he didn't really answer the question. Frankly, it sounded like an early Hillary Clinton spin when she was asked if she regretted her Iraq war vote. She used to answer, if we knew then what we know now, there never would have been a vote. On its face, the McCain and Clinton answers sound like answers, but they also sound like ducks.

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike and Adam Aigner-Treworgy
SIMI VALLEY, Calif. -- The Romney
press shop found the "send" button on its e-mail program once more. The
counterattacks started flying electronically, just like Romney's
smacks back and forth with McCain have kicked up in the second half of
the debate.

Although the Romney camp is churning debate-opposition as usual, the
media's inboxes are notably emptier now that McCain seems comfortably
seated at the top and Giuliani is out of the race. Huckabee's shop was
never too active on the opposition email front, but it is a different
debate inside the media tent now that the field has narrowed.

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
McCain looked confident after his win last night. Romney said it angers
him when "someone" accuses him of holding a position he doesn't hold.
McCain then engaged Romney directly, looking confident that this was a
winning issue for him. The back and forth then seemed to get a little
out of hand, but it seems that McCain is not scared to go right after
him now that he his getting more comfortable with his role as
'frontrunner.'

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Multiple sources tell NBC
News that Gov. Arnold. Schwarzenegger will appear with John McCain and
offer his endorsement tomorrow in the LA area.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Romney certainly said the words "timetable" and "milestone," but certainly not in the way McCain frames it. McCain seems to willfully mischaracterize Romney's remarks, as Romney also makes clear in the following clip that he would not support a date certain for troop withdrawal.

What Romney did say was that he thought it was appropriate to have private timetables and milestones between Bush and Maliki. McCain's point may be that Romney even used the words at all. And he's more than willing to use it to his advantage in his political campaign, even if the larger point is inaccurate.

Here's the clip from ABC:

[YouTube:Mu1O_0AIJ1k]

Here's what he said:

"Well, there's no question that the president and Prime Minister Al Maliki have to have a series of timetables and milestones that they speak about, but those shouldn't be for public pronouncement. You don't want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you're gonna be gone. You want to have a series of things accomplished in terms of the strength of the Iraqi military and Iraqi police and the leadership of the Iraqi government.

It was then pointed out to Romney that President Bush has said he would not support anything from Congress with a date certain for withdrawal. He was asked where he stands and if he would do the same. His response:

"Well, of course, can you imagine the setting where during the second world war we said to the Germans, 'Gee if we haven't reached the Rhine by this date, well, we'll go home' or 'if we haven't gotten this accomplished we'll pull up and leave.' You don't publish that to your enemy or they'll just lie and wait til that time. So, of course, you have to work together to create timetables and milestones, but you don't do that with the opposition."

From NBC's Mark Murray
One of the more interesting things in the past week is how McCain -- despite his success in Florida -- took some hits in his Straight Talk armor. The most notable example came when he argued that Romney supported a secret plan for withdrawal from Iraq. Most professional truth-squaders and fact-checkers concluded that McCain was distorting Romney's months-old quote.

And at tonight's debate, we've seen McCain sidestep some legitimate questions -- 1) why he said he opposed the Bush tax cuts because they favored the wealthy and 2) if he would have voted today for his McCain-Kennedy immigration bill, which provided for a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. "My bill will not be voted on," he said, not directly answering the question.

Of course, any observer of politics will tell you that politicians exaggerate and sidestep tough questions all the time. But, fair or not, someone who has this Straight Talk persona gets held to a different standard -- just like Obama gets held to a different standard when he preaches a different kind of politics, but gets bogged down with a guy like Tony Rezko.

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
SIMI VALLEY, Calif. -- It's been a quiet
afternoon from the Romney campaign. Very few press releases were sent
from a campaign that tends to flood reporters' inboxes.

True,
the campaign's top communications staffers were stuck on a plane for
hours as they traveled from one coast to another. And while they were
likely prepping the candidate for tonight's debate once they got here
(although they could have done that on the two-leg, six-hour-plus plane
ride), they were wheels down five hours before the debate even began.

And
tonight, during a debate that First Read has already deemed lacking in
passion, the e-mail debate counterattacks have tapered off in contrast
to previous, more contentious debates. The Romney team has let several
fly -- most focused on McCain and the Bush tax cuts. McCain's team has
issued fewer than Romney's so far.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Listen closely to McCain tonight and going forward, and you'll likely notice a clear appeal -- to conservatives. His weakness is with these conservatives. McCain 1.0 knew this when he tried to court the Bush core -- evangelicals and others way back when he was the heir apparent. Now, heir apparent 2.0 finds himself again needing to coalesce that group.

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
"I believe in getting rates down," Romney said, after subtly hitting
McCain for opposing Bush's tax cuts because they unfairly favored the
wealthy. The "rates" that Romney was talking about appears to be a
defense of Reagan-omics, or cuts for the rich that will eventually
trickle down to the poor. This does little to help his image as a
corporate candidate.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Huckabee is sticking by his road-to-anywhere stimulus plan. (First, it was more roads in Florida to make more jobs. Now, it's California.) As Romney points out, building infrastructure is important, but Huckanomics won't get immediate help to those who most need it.

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
The AP is reporting that at this juncture, the wealthy Romney won't be deluging us with any more ads like the campaign has done for months and months. Several
minutes before this story went up, spokesman Kevin Madden was asked if
any decisions had been made about ads yet, and he said "not yet."

Two notes, however, the story says that today was a good day of fundraising for Romney, and the strategy could change. And
don't miss this line: "But they added that in discussions so far, the
former Massachusetts governor had selected the least costly of a
variety of options prepared for his review."

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
Both McCain and Romney have hit on all
of the
talking points they have been using with the media over the last week,
attacking each other on their respective conservative records. In an
attempt to
defend his record, McCain used his oft-relied on tactic of listing the
conservatives that have endorsed him. He also pointed to both the
Boston Herald and the Boston Globe, a few of the many, many newspapers
that have endorsed him.

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
The California governor, who is in the audience at the debate, said there would be "no news today" from him on a possible endorsement of McCain. But he did say that with Rudy's departure "the
dynamics have changed"...it sounds like an endorsement will come
tomorrow. There was also UNCOMFIRMED talk of such an endorsement on the
McCain plane today. The Sacramento Bee is reporting that it's going to happen, per NBC's Jesse Rodriguez.

"The two will appear together Thursday in Los Angeles to discuss global
warming and climate change at at a green technology company in Los
Angeles, said Aaron McLear, the governor's press secretary," the Bee writes. "Officials
for McCain and Schwarzenegger would not confirm that the endorsement is
forthcoming. But the governor himself suggested that former New York
Mayor Rudy Giuliani's departure from the race and endorsement of McCain
today had him reconsidering his earlier plan to stay neutral."

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
Right out of the gate Huckabee is appealing to blue-collar
workers, mentioning gas prices for truckers and the multitude of people in
America who live without a regular paycheck. This promises to be a trend as he
tries to differentiate himself from a wealthy businessman and a 25-year
senator.

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Anyone else just experience a little deja vu with Mike Huckabee complaining about not being included in the debate? He sounded very similar to John Edwards during the last Democratic debate, complaining about being included.

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Did Romney just make a debate mistake? He just answered McCain's charge rather than deflect and attack back. McCain deflected the conservative charge and instead went right at Romney. College debate coaches would score this exchange to McCain.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Even though both candidates are content dumping the negative oppo at each other, this is lifeless. There is limited to no passion. McCain sits back and waits. Romney feigns outrage. Doesn't this feel like an after-thought, a beauty contest?

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Nothing like being seated to keep things fairly cool. Romney definitely hit McCain just now (thanks to the question) but the tone was friendly. And McCain's whacking right back, clearly not taking any chances.

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
SIMI VALLEY, Ca. – At a very well attended press conference here just a few hours before he was scheduled to participate in yet another GOP debate, Rudy Giuliani announced his departure from the presidential race and his endorsement of John McCain.

"I'm fully aboard, 100%," Giuliani said, announcing that if McCain would have him, he plans on campaigning on the senator's behalf in Feb 5th states. "I don't do things half way. I do them 100%, and when I believe in a man ­– like I do John McCain – this will become, to me, as important as my own election was."

With Cindy McCain looking on adoringly, Giuliani added more evidence to the 'anti-Mitt Romney' story line, as GOP establishment becomes more content lining up behind McCain's candidacy.

"There will be a clear choice this November and I believe that my life has prepared me for a life of service and a life of dedication," McCain said. "My strong right arm and my partner and my friend in this effort will be the former mayor of New York City, all-American hero, Rudy Giuliani."

McCain explained that he and Giuliani were uniquely aware of the threat of 'radical Islamic extremism,' and when he talked about a "clear choice" in November he implied that the Democratic candidates were not up to what he often calls "the transcendent challenge of the twenty first century."

Less than an hour after McCain and Giuliani left the spin room virtually arm-in-arm, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger held his own press conference and openly hinted that his own endorsement of McCain could come as early as tomorrow. When asked specifically if he is planning an endorsement, Schwarzenegger said he had "no news today" on the topic.

But he said that Giuliani's departure from the race certainly indicates that "the dynamics have changed," and he went on to announce that he will be attending an event with McCain tomorrow that will focus on conservation and the environment.

Schwarzenegger's endorsement – if it does come – could have the same effect that Gov. Charlie Crist's endorsement had on McCain's campaign in Florida, providing an influential last-minute bump in a delegate-rich state.

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Anyone else notice a negative tone in Mitt Romney's first answer? Is he not over Florida? He just seemed exasperated answering that first question about the economy; he even challenged the premise of the question.

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. -- No, Mike Huckabee's not endorsing anyone else
today. But it was clear from his comments today which of the remaining
Republican rivals he's least fond of.

Speaking to
reporters before a fundraiser in the O.C., Huckabee laid out a
post-Florida landscape that includes one fewer candidate, and in his
eye, just one true conservative. "A lot of people in the Republican
Party are looking for what they might call the real conservative," he
said. "If the people in the Republican Party are looking for an
authentic conservative and a consistent one, not a
Johnny-come-lately-gee-I-think

Huckabee's
comments came before an open-press fundraiser, in which it was
announced he raised $100,000. In an introductory prayer, a speaker
talked about rebranding the upcoming "Super Tuesday" as "Super Mike
Huckabee Day."

Huckabee targeted Romney in his remarks,
if not by name, saying that there is now only one candidate "who hasn't
had a recent conversion on a whole history of issues." "You will not
find any videotape of me denying caring about Ronald Reagan and saying
that I didn't have any part of that Reagan-Bush thing … as one of the
candidates has said not too long ago," he said.

Looking
ahead, Huckabee told reporters that he'll visit Oklahoma, Missouri,
Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia in the week ahead -- all states
he feels will be more receptive to his message. "Oh absolutely," he
said when asked if he's focusing on southern states. "Georgia has more
delegates than Florida. So there's a lot at stake next week and we plan
to pick up a bunch of them."

And to those who said he's
helping keep a path open to help McCain win the nomination in hopes of
becoming a running mate, Huckabee said, not so. "He's gotta beat me for
the presidency first and he hasn't done that," he said. And, he
promised he's in this til the finish. "I've learned through the many,
many years, don't give up; stay there until the last punch puts you on
the floor. And I'm a long way from that."

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Cheers to CNN for starting this debate almost on time. No doubt that the GOP candidates' demand for a 90 min. debate instead of 2 hours cut into the intro time.

From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
NORMAN, OK -- For a second-straight day, Bill Clinton did what he rarely does: not make news.

He didn't mention John Edwards' departure from the presidential campaign, and didn't say anything of note about last week's South Carolina results.

He did mention McCain in passing, as he often does, when he referencing his wife's bipartisan projects, saying that she respects McCain but disagrees with him on issues like "100 more years in Iraq."

Bill Clinton was slightly stronger than normal on electability, trying to debunk the perception that she is a polarizing figure. "The big rap on her is Republicans don't like her. She's so polarizing, nobody'll ever vote for her. Here's what happened: She goes to the Senate, and more than any other person running for president has a stunning record of passing legislation with Republicans. "

Chelsea accompanied her father to the largely student-attended rally here (somewhere upwards of 4,500 in attendance.) She will appear with him later tonight in Denver.