Midnight was the deadline for the state Republican parties to submit their delegate-selection plans for the 2008 GOP convention. And an RNC official used that deadline as the basis for a conference call with reporters yesterday to discuss penalties for state parties that hold their nominating contests before February 5. The official said that states -- like Florida and Michigan -- that hold their contests before that date will lose 50% of their delegates to the convention. And they will lose 90% of their delegates if they announce their contest date after the RNC's "Call to Convention," which must occur before the end of the year (and has typically occurred at the end of December in past cycles).

By comparison, the DNC has said it will strip 100% of delegates from states -- other than Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina -- that hold their contests before February 5.

Clinton's Michigan chair, Jim Blanchard, is quoted in today's Detroit Free Press saying Clinton's decision to sign the pledge vowing to ONLY compete in IA, NH, SC and NV in January was a mistake. But he also said candidates would find loopholes to campaign in Michigan.

There's a new Karl Rove, officially, that is. Yesterday, Bush appointed Barry Jackson, Rove's longtime deputy. Jackson's official title is assistant to the president for "Strategic Initiatives and External Affairs." This puts him in charge for managing the White House offices of Political Affairs, Public Liaison, Intergovernmental Affairs, and Strategic Initiatives. Before joining the White House in 2002, Jackson served as chief of staff to now-House Min. Leader John Boehner.

The AP reported yesterday that Sen. Larry Craig "is reconsidering his decision to resign after his arrest in a Minnesota airport sex sting and may still fight for his Senate seat." The article quoted Craig's Idaho spokesman, Sidney Smith, who said: "We're still preparing as if Senator Craig will resign Sept. 30, but the outcome of the legal case in Minnesota and the ethics investigation will have an impact on whether we're able to stay in the fight -- and stay in the Senate."

Craig's Washington communication director, Dan Whiting, put the emphasis on the word "MAY", as in "may not resign." In a emailed response to NBC's Ken Strickland about the AP story, Whiting wrote, "As he stated on Saturday, Senator Craig intends to resign on September 30th.  However, he is fighting these charges, and should he be cleared before then, he may, and I emphasize may, not resign."

In news conference on Capitol Hill yesterday morning -- well before the AP story -- Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said his understanding of Craig's decision to resign was definitive. "He called me on Friday and indicated what he was going to say on Saturday, and I believe that's a firm decision," he told reporters. In a follow-up question on Craig, McConnell added, "I think the episode is over. We'll have a new senator from Idaho at some point in the next month or so and we're going to move on."

The New York Times: "The potential change of heart followed moves by Mr. Craig to mount an aggressive challenge to the charges, hiring well-known lawyers to handle the criminal case and any Senate ethics inquiry into the incident, as well as a communications firm that specializes in crisis management. Stanley M. Brand, a lawyer hired by Mr. Craig to resolve any complaint with the Senate Ethics Committee, said he had advised Mr. Craig not to resign, and said doing so would set a bad precedent in the Senate."

More: "'I think what it does is it takes away some bargaining power that you would otherwise have to resolve it in some mutually acceptable way,' Mr. Brand said Tuesday night. Mr. Brand also said the Senate should not consider ethics complaints arising from 'personal conduct misdemeanors that have no bearing on performance of official duties.'"

So Roll Call nabs another scoop regarding Larry Craig. This one regarding a voice mail Craig left with someone named, "Billy." (Probably his attorney Billy Martin?). Anyway, Craig mis-dialed and left the voice mail with someone else who then gave the recording to Roll Call. In the voice mail, left JUST before he gave his statement about the "intent" to resign, Craig recounts that he finally found a defender in the Senate (Arlen Specter) and that he was going to change the wording of his statement slightly to give him some options.

Interestingly, this recording was offered to the Idaho Statesman first, but the paper turned it down because the owner of the accidental voice mail wanted money. Roll Call claims it obtained the recording without paying.

Nikki Tsongas, widow of senator and one-time presidential hopeful Paul Tsongas, won the Democratic primary in a special election for the 5th Congressional District in Massachusetts by a 5-point margin. This was Tsongas' first run for office, and she defeated another prominent female, city attorney Eileen Donoghue, in a district, which hasn't elected a woman to Congress since 1960. Tsongas had the backing of Emily's List and the wife of US Rep. Martin Meehan, but Donoghue closed the gap in recent weeks by taking out a loan and running TV ads.

Tsongas will face Republican Jim Ogonowski, a retired Air Force colonel, in the Oct. 16 general election. Ogonowski's brother, was captain of American Airlines Flight 11 -- one of two planes hijacked and flown into the Twin Towers on 9/11. Here's the Boston Globe's audio reporting on the story.

The hometown Lowell Sun called it "a closer than expected finish" and said Tsongas "had to fight off a strong finish by Donoghue, who trailed the polls by as many as 25 percentage points only two months ago."

From NBC's Andy Merten and Mark Murray
After hitting the campaign trail in New Hampshire and Iowa with her husband over the Labor Day weekend, Hillary Clinton returned to Washington today addressing the Alliance for Retired Americans today. She stuck mostly to her standard stump speech after taking stage and finding the podium rushed by enthusiastic senior citizens wielding digital cameras. "I see a lot of fellow baby boomers, and we're all thinking about the problems we'll confront," Clinton said.

She focused heavily on the issues of Medicare and Social Security, saying, "Now you don't have to worry –- when I'm president, privatization is off the table." Clinton added that reducing benefits and raising the retirement age is not the answer. "We need to get back to the fiscal responsibility that we had in the 1990s," she added. (If reducing benefits or raising the retirement age isn't the answer to making the system solvent, then what is -- raising taxes?)

While Clinton made a point to draw upon nostalgic pictures of the time the former President Clinton spent in office, she only mentioned him directly once. "When my husband left office, we had a secure Social Security system until 2055, and then, all of a sudden, the Bush Administration took us back into deficits."

Wait a second: Is that right? A 2001 Social Security Board of Trustees report said the program would remain solvent until 2038, not 2055. The Clinton campaign has yet to respond to messages First Read left seeking comment.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Another Romney TV ad will go into the campaign's rotation in Iowa and New Hampshire starting tomorrow. It will also begin airing in South Carolina within the next couple of weeks. This one is called "Energy" and again shows Romney running. An announcer talks about Romney's leadership in turning around businesses and the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics. At the end of the ad, he sits gazing at his wife and grandchild, by their side, with sweat dripping from his brow, hair tussled and breathing hard. 

Here's the full transcript:

"Energy" (30 seconds): 
ANN ROMNEY:  "Every place that Mitt has gone, he has solved problems that people said were nearly impossible."
 
ANNOUNCER:  "Mitt Romney, the innovator who created and revolutionized American businesses turned around major companies.
 
"Took on the bankrupt Olympics and turned them around.
 
"The Republican Governor who stood up and cut spending instead of raising taxes.
 
"And turned around our most Democratic state.
 
"Leadership to turn around Washington."
 
ROMNEY:  "I'm Mitt Romney and I approved this message."

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
It's been a while since we've heard Al Gore buzz. Expect more to come in the next six weeks as the Nobel prize campaign wraps up (the winner is announced on October 12). If Gore wins it, watch for buzz to explode again.

An Oscar, a Nobel prize, why not filing papers too?

What has piqued our interest in Gore is a new article in Vanity Fair -- written by the daughter of Gore friend Marty Peretz -- which notes the critical press coverage Gore received during his 2000 campaign. "Eight years ago, in the bastions of the 'liberal media' that were supposed to love Gore—The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Boston Globe, CNN—he was variously described as 'repellent,' 'delusional,' a vote-rigger, a man who 'lies like a rug,' 'Pinocchio.' Eric Pooley, who covered him for Time magazine, says, 'He brought out the creative-writing student in so many reporters... Everybody kind of let loose on the guy.'"

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Fred Thompson will be up with two 30-second TV spots starting tomorrow. Even though the 6-foot-5-inch Thompson will be a no-show at tomorrow's Republican debate in New Hampshire, he will cast his tall shadow on the event. One of the ads will run during commercial breaks. The ads, entitled "Debate" and "I'm in," will be widely released tomorrow.

On Thursday, the similar spot "I'm in" will run "all day" on FOX News Channel, according to advisors. The difference between the spots boils down to a time reference, noting before and after Thompson actually declares.

Thompson jumps into the race with a Web announcement, which was taped at his McLean, Va., home on Saturday. It runs 15 minutes and, according to advisors, outlines his rationale for running.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier today, we wrote about a letter Michigan Democrats are sending to the Democratic National Committee, asking why Michigan and Florida will be punished for moving up their primaries -- but not New Hampshire, which has sent signals that it will move up to protect its "first in the nation" primary.

The DNC told First Read that it hadn't yet received the letter, so it couldn't respond to it.

But a Democratic official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, made these two points: 1) Unlike Michigan and Florida, New Hampshire has not yet taken any action to move its date, and 2) New Hampshire -- in addition to Iowa, Nevada, and South Carolina -- had pre-approval from the party to conduct its nominating contest before February 5; Michigan and Florida did not.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
It was leaked to the Washington Post late last week, but now NBC News has obtained a summary of the Government Accountability Office report assessing the Iraqi government's progress toward meeting 18 benchmarks laid out by Congress. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds hearing on the report today at 2:00 pm ET. Here are some excerpts:

"The Iraqi government met 3, partially met 4, and did not meet 11 of its 18 benchmarks. Overall, key legislation has not been passed, violence remains high, and it is unclear whether the Iraqi government will spend $10 billion in reconstruction funds. These results do not diminish the courageous efforts of coalition forces and progress that has been made in several areas, including Anbar Province."
 
"The Iraqi government met one of eight legislative benchmarks: the rights of minority political parties in Iraq's legislature are protected. The government has not enacted legislation on de-Ba'athification, oil revenue sharing, provincial elections, amnesty, and militia disarmament."

"It is unclear whether sectarian violence in Iraq has decreased -- a key security benchmark -- since it is difficult to measure whether the perpetrators' intents were sectarian in nature, and other measures of population security show differing trends."

"As the Congress considers the way forward in Iraq, it should balance the achievement of the 18 Iraqi benchmarks with military progress and with homeland security goals, foreign policy goals, and other goals of the United States."

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
Per the AP, Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) today signed legislation into law moving up her state's primary to January 15, even though Michigan Democrats now face the prospect of losing all of their delegates to the Democratic National Convention by violating DNC rules.

And on the same day that Granholm signed this into law, Michigan Democrats Carl Levin and Debbie Dingell have drafted a letter -- obtained by First Read -- asking the Democratic National Committee why it's ready to penalize states like Michigan and Florida for moving up, but not New Hampshire?

"Michigan Democrats, while disappointed our state was not selected as one of the four 'pre-window' states [IA, NV, NH, SC], announced they would abide by the DNC calendar, unless New Hampshire or another state decided to ignore the rule establishing that sequence and that calendar," Levin and Dingell say in the letter. "It didn't take New Hampshire long to say it would violate the calendar. New Hampshire's Secretary of State, with the support of the state's Democratic and Republican chairmen, indicated on August 9 that he was going to hold the NH primary before January 19, 2008. This announcement was made at a joint public ceremony and in partnership with South Carolina Republicans who had announced that they would hold their GOP primary on January 19."

More: "We object to your continued silence and acquiescence in the face of New Hampshire's stated intent to blatantly violate the DNC rules and sequence... Selective enforcement of our rule undermines the progress achieved -- to open the process potentially for all states."

*** Update *** We now have a copy of the final letter, which has a few slight changes from the draft quoted above.

Governor Howard Dean, M.D.
Chairman, Democratic National Committee   
Democratic Party Headquarters
430 South Capitol St., SE
Washington, DC  20004

Dear Governor Dean,

 America has many strengths.  Two of its greatest are our strong democratic traditions, and the rich diversity of our people.  We Democrats take pride in the fact that, of the two major parties, we best represent this diversity.
 
 It is therefore hard to understand how one of our most important democratic processes -- the nomination of our candidates for the presidency -- has been unduly dominated by two states, neither of which is particularly reflective of this diversity.

 New Hampshire and Iowa have had a hugely disproportionate impact on our presidential nominating process, with more access to candidates and visits from candidates than probably all the other states combined during the primary and caucus season.  Other states, including Michigan, have issues critically important to them.  These states would like candidates seeking their support to understand and address these issues, and urged the DNC to make the process more democratic and thereby more reflective of our diversity.

 The DNC approached this issue cautiously and with due diligence.  A Commission representing diverse party constituents was appointed to make recommendations.  The Commission then held a series of comprehensive public hearings.  Ultimately, the Commission recommended a modest change in the traditional schedule, which New Hampshire opposed. It recommended that two caucuses be held, then two primaries, and then the "window" for the rest of the states would open.

 On August 19, 2006, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) set the dates for the selection of delegates to the 2008 Democratic nominating convention as follows:

· at Iowa caucuses held no earlier than January 14, 2008;
· at Nevada caucuses held no earlier than January 19;
· at a New Hampshire primary held no earlier than January 22; and
· at a South Carolina primary held no earlier than January 29.

The rest of the states could then hold their caucuses or primaries to select their delegates after the opening of the "window" on February 5, 2008.

Michigan Democrats, while disappointed our state was not selected as one of the four "pre-window" states, announced we would abide by the DNC calendar, unless New Hampshire or another state decided to ignore the rule establishing that sequence and that calendar.

 On August 9, New Hampshire's Secretary of State, with the support of the state's Democrats, indicated that he was going to hold the New Hampshire primary before January 19, 2008, a clear violation of the DNC rules.  This announcement was made at a joint public ceremony and in partnership with South Carolina Republicans who had announced that they would hold their GOP primary on January 19.

 One of New Hampshire's purposes was to push the New Hampshire primary ahead of the Nevada caucus which the DNC's rule had scheduled for January 19.  New Hampshire's transparent action reflected its determination to maintain its privileged position of going immediately after Iowa, despite the DNC calendar.

 Those of us who fought hard to loosen the stranglehold of New Hampshire on the process saw you stand by silently.

 But when the Florida legislature changed the date of the Florida primary to a date before the window opened, you promptly determined to punish Florida Democrats by threatening to not seat their delegates if they abided by their legislature's decision.  You still maintained public silence about the New Hampshire Secretary of State's decision to violate the DNC rules, a decision, again, which was supported by New Hampshire Democrats.

 In the past, New Hampshire maintained its discriminatory privilege and dominating role because our party would not take them on and because of the gun that New Hampshire holds to candidates' heads, insisting that they pledge not to campaign in any state that encroaches on their primary.

 Our national party began the process of taking that gun away from the heads of our candidates when we changed the sequence and put New Hampshire third instead of second in the period prior to the opening of the window.  The battle that we fought was over the sequence of the primaries and caucuses.  New Hampshire either pushing ahead of its assigned position or increasing the distance between its primary and the opening of the window for the rest of the states violates the purpose of the rule.

 It was a hard won, albeit partial, victory, allowing our party to better reflect the diversity of America and to begin to inject some fairness in a process for states whose role had been diminished election after election by the dominance of two states.

 Michigan Democrats are determined to fight to maintain that victory.  We object to your continued silence in the face of New Hampshire's stated intent to violate the DNC rules.  As Chairman of the Democratic Party, you had the obligation to state your intent to apply the rule to New Hampshire Democrats when its Secretary of State announced his intention to move the New Hampshire primary prior to January 19.  Selective enforcement of our rules undermines the progress achieved -- to open the process potentially for all states.

 We have not seen any public statement from the DNC following New Hampshire's announcement on August 9 that they would move their primary before January 19 in clear violation of the DNC rules.   Your silence in the face of New Hampshire's action is a stunning contrast to the DNC's reaction to Florida.

 In the face of New Hampshire's decision to violate the DNC rules and your silence concerning that decision, and given our strong feelings about the need to reform our nominating process to make it fairer, Michigan's Democratic leadership decided to elect our delegates on January 15, 2008, the date the Michigan legislature set for the Michigan primary.  (See attached statement.)

 Someone has to take on New Hampshire's transparent effort to violate the DNC rules and to maintain its privileged position. Hopefully the DNC will, and you will, promptly urge our candidates to stop campaigning in New Hampshire because of the New Hampshire's expressed intent to violate the DNC rules.

 New Hampshire's gun remains at our candidates' heads and they fear the repercussions to their campaigns in New Hampshire if they don't sign the New Hampshire pledge -- dramatic proof, if any more were needed, of the disproportionate impact of the New Hampshire primary.

 Maybe Florida will join us if we have to take our case for the seating of our delegates to the Democratic convention in Denver.  And maybe Nevada will insist on maintaining the number two position assigned to it.  Maybe one or more of our Democratic candidates will join us.  In any event, there cannot be one set of rules for New Hampshire and one set for every other state.  We are determined that Michigan not be bound by rules that are not effectively enforced against other states.

   Sincerely,

   Carl Levin and Debbie Dingell

From NBC's Mark Murray
Is Mitt Romney putting more distance between President Bush and himself, especially when it comes to Iraq? The Politico writes, "Confronted by an unhappy questioner, Mitt Romney said [last night] at a town hall meeting in New Hampshire that the situation in Iraq 'is a mess.'"

More from the article: "While he frequently acknowledges that the post-war planning was mishandled, Romney is typically more measured in his analysis of Iraq when the question comes up on the campaign trail." 

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** So Now It Begins: For fatigued presidential candidates, voters, and political reporters -- who have been running in, watching, and covering this race since January -- the next four months or so until the first nominating contests might seem like an eternity. But as we've passed the Labor Day mile marker, it's worth pointing out how little has actually changed since the summer began. Clinton and Giuliani are the national frontrunners, while Romney and Obama are the most well positioned challengers to the two New Yorkers. And that brings us to Thompson and Edwards, the two party crashers to the developing two-person races. The media struggles covering three-way races… it always has.

*** Fred's And John's Challenge: Fair or not, Thompson and Edwards have to figure out how to knock out one of their two respective challengers sometime this fall, if they want to remain in the game in January. Both are trying to position themselves as the ideological purists of their parties, with Edwards trying to coalesce labor and passionate anti-war folks and Thompson trying to be the conventional (read: consistent) conservative. But both Edwards and Thompson don't have the Senate records to back up their current ideologies. Will that ultimately be their undoing?

*** What An August: As usual, the supposed slowest month for politics proved anything but -- with the month culminating in what August has become known for: unlikely scandal. The GOP performed old-fashioned Civil War surgery: cutting off Larry Craig before his gangrene-like scandal could get contagious to the rest of the party. But in doing so, did the party invite more problems, namely in why there was selective outrage with Craig, compared with the sexual exploits of Louisiana Sen. David Vitter. What are the key differences? An actual arrest record with Craig? A GOP governor to appoint Craig's replacement? Straight vs. gay?

*** The Calendar Leapfrog: The other BIG August story was the presidential primary calendar, with Michigan and Florida (and Wyoming, by the way) trying to crash the Iowa-New Hampshire-South Carolina (oh, and, Nevada) party. Thanks to the RNC rules (a penalty of just half of state's delegates), the major GOP candidates will likely play in one or both states. The Democrats, meanwhile, have all pledged to honor the first four states. But how tempting is it going to be for Clinton and Obama, in particular, (since they'll have the dough), to play in Michigan and Florida? Could we see, for instance, heavy national cable advertising by the two to try and make sure they don't leave the states completely unopposed?

*** Clinton's Rough Month: By the way, are we the only ones who noticed that Clinton had a tough couple of weeks at the end of August? It started at the debate in Des Moines, where -- for the first time -- she didn't stand out from her opponents. Then came her much-criticized statement that Republicans would benefit politically from another terrorist attack, and that she's the best Democrat to deal with that GOP advantage. And finally, there was the Norman Hsu story, which not only put her campaign on the defensive, but also allowed the media to dig up their old Johnny Chung photos at the very time Clinton is stressing that she's the best candidate for change. The good news for her is that all of this came at the same time Washington was fixated on Larry Craig and the Rove and Gonzales resignations. During her roughest couple of weeks as a presidential candidate, was no one watching? 

*** If You Say It Enough Times, Does It Become True? In Robert Draper's new book on Bush, "Dead Certain," he recounts a strategy session among the Bush inner circle just after the New Hampshire primary in 2000, when one of the advisers chimed up and reminded the governor that he, too, was a reformer like McCain. Voila, born was the slogan "Reformer with Results" and the rest is primary history. Well, over the weekend, the Clintons campaigned in Iowa and New Hampshire under the new official slogan, "Change We Need." If Clinton says the word "change" enough, will it convince Democrats in the early states that she'll bring enough change so that they won't be tempted by Obama? Not coincidentally, Obama was debuting a new stump speech, making the case that his lack of "Washington experience" should not be interpreted as a lack of experience. And so the Dem race goes: change vs. experience. Is Clinton enough change? Does Obama have enough experience? Will Edwards simply cry, "Enough"?

*** On The Trail: Brownback has a Social Security event in New Hampshire; Clinton appears (pre-taped) on the Ellen DeGeneres Show and speaks, in DC, at the Alliance for Retired Americans' legislative conference; Dodd stumps in Iowa; Edwards hits a "small change for big change" fundraiser in Montana; Giuliani gives a speech in Mississippi on his commitment to ensure communities are prepared for terrorist attacks or natural disasters; Huckabee attends a private reception in New Hampshire; McCain campaigns in New Hampshire; Obama holds a roundtable on restoring trust in government before heading to a series of events in Iowa; Romney visits New Hampshire and Cincinnati, OH; Richardson campaigns in Iowa.

*** Another Super Tuesday: For more on these events -- and much, much more -- tune into MSNBC's all-day political coverage.

Countdown to LA GOV election: 46 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 63 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 74 days
Countdown to Iowa: 132 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 137 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 154 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 427 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 504 days

So has the surge worked or not? Here's the lead Iraq item from the LA Times: "Baghdad's neighborhoods continue to split along sectarian lines, violence shifts elsewhere and infighting stalls political progress."

The Washington Post adds, "If there is one indisputable truth regarding the current offensive, it is this: When large numbers of U.S. troops are funneled into areas, security improves. But the numbers only partly describe the reality on the ground. Visits to key U.S. bases and neighborhoods in and around Baghdad show that recent improvements are sometimes tenuous, temporary, even illusory."

The Politico: "So far, leadership aides in both parties say there are not clear signs that a months-long stalemate [on Iraq], largely on party lines, has broken -- a standoff that has given Bush latitude to continue his policies even as polls show the war becoming steadily more unpopular… Hearings Tuesday and Wednesday will highlight a General Accounting Office report saying that the Iraqi government has failed to meet most of the 18 benchmarks set by Congress to measure progress toward security and stability." 

David Brooks writes this line this morning, which will become a favorite on the Democratic stump ASAP: "The big change in the debate has come about because the surge failed, and it failed in an unexpected way. The original idea behind the surge was that U.S. troops would create enough calm to allow the national politicians to make compromises. The surge was intended to bolster the 'modern' -- meaning nonsectarian and nontribal -- institutions in the country. But the surge is failing, at least politically, because there are practically no nonsectarian institutions, and there are few nonsectarian leaders to create them. Security gains have not led to political gains."

The piece is a bit more optimistic about some local Iraq developments. Could it be that like America, all Iraqi reconciliation is local? Anyway, Brooks concludes: "As September begins, we're finally moving beyond abstract debates over troop levels and timetables. The key questions now are: Can U.S. troops help Iraqi locals take control of their own neighborhoods? Is it worth more American lives to help them do so? And, if so, how?"

The New York Times covers Bush's surprise visit to Iraq yesterday, where he emphasized "security gains, sectarian reconciliation and the possibility of a troop withdrawal, thus embracing and pre-empting this month's crucial Congressional hearings on his Iraq strategy. His visit … had a clear political goal: to try to head off opponents' pressure for a withdrawal by hailing what he called recent successes in Iraq and by contending that only making Iraq stable would allow American forces to pull back."

A few more thoughts on how little has changed since the summer began… Despite her high unfavorable ratings, Clinton remains the Democratic front-runner, with a growing number of Democrats and pundits now convinced that she can win the whole enchilada. Despite his stagnant national poll numbers, Obama has the money and the excitement to give Clinton a run for her money in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Despite often being overshadowed by the other Dem front-runners, Edwards is still running strong in Iowa. And despite his gaffes, Richardson seems to be the second-tier candidate best positioned to vault into the first tier, although Biden (with his strong debate performances and security credentials) and Dodd (with his new IAFF endorsement) believe they're also poised to make a run.

The New York Times has two CW-setting man/woman-on-the-street pieces about the Dem and GOP races. Here's the one on the Democrats: "The interviews suggest that Mrs. Clinton has made progress in her effort to present herself as the most qualified of the candidates… Mr. Obama has made a strong and favorable impression on voters, but appears not to have erased the concern — fanned by Mrs. Clinton's campaign with its emphasis on experience — that he might not be ready to be president. A number of voters said they wished Mr. Obama had waited to run and suggested he would be a much stronger candidate in four or eight years… Democrats expressed some admiration for Mr. Edwards — but offered concern that he had decided to push ahead with a presidential campaign after learning that his wife, Elizabeth, had suffered a recurrence of cancer and that it was not treatable."

BIDEN: It's Iowa or bust for Biden… He says he needs to finish second, maybe third, in Iowa to remain in the presidential race. "I'm counting on Iowa a lot," Biden said. "My expectation is that I come in first, second or an indistinguishable third. To tell you the truth, if I don't, then this has been a nice exercise and I'll see you again when you come to visit Washington."

CLINTON: The campaign's Labor Day kickoff included a concerted effort to prove Clinton is just as much of a change candidate as the rest of the Democratic field. Here she is debuting a new stump speech in New Hampshire: "'I know some people think you have to choose between change and experience,' the senator from New York said at an afternoon rally on the grounds of the state capitol in Concord. 'Well, with me, you don't have to choose. I have spent my whole life fighting for change.'"

It may strike the media as defensive a bit but it may be exactly what puts unconvinced Democrats into the Clinton camp (at least as a consensus second choice).

The New York Times has a fun piece delving into exactly the role Bill Clinton is playing on the trail so far. "Mr. Clinton's words carry weight, even if his bias is obvious. He often tries to minimize that bias — as if that were possible — by offering a somewhat contorted testimonial: Even if they were not married, he says, he would still campaign for her as the best candidate."

Another controversial Clinton donor… The Washington Post on Monday detailed the financial woes of major fundraiser Sant Chatwal, an Indian American businessman who has been fighting the IRS over unpaid business taxes. Who is vetting Clinton bundlers faster: the campaign or the media?

Speaking of donors, the New York Times looks at the effort by Indian firms and their efforts to defend outsourcing. Here's an interesting graph: "The Indian vendors' main worries are two Democratic candidates: Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, whose campaign has hinted at opposition to outsourcing, and John Edwards, former senator of North Carolina, who is running a populist campaign. Many Indian executives consider Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrat of New York, more sympathetic to their industry, but they are concerned that she will be compelled to match the others' statements in a tight contest."

DODD: The Connecticut senator says the United States needs to let Iraqis decide what Iraq will look like. "While I respect those who come up with ideas on what Iraq ought to look like, that's exactly the problem we got into back in the early 20th century when the British decided what Iraq was gonna look like," he said in New Hampshire.

EDWARDS: In garnering new labor endorsements over the last week, the Edwards campaign has done something smart in convincing the CW definers of their significance. For instance, the campaign notes that of the 1.2 million unionized Steelworkers, they include 8,685 members in Iowa, 2,250 in New Hampshire, 3,171 in Nevada, and 6,330 in South Carolina. The Iowa and Nevada are the more important numbers since any new 1,000 participants a campaign finds is, literally, 1% more they'll potentially ensure themselves on Caucus Day.

Per the campaign, here's the four-state breakdown of their Carpenters endorsement: 3,907 members in Iowa, 12,618 members in Nevada, 2,136 members in New Hampshire, and 865 members in South Carolina.

KUCINICH: He met with the presidents of Syria and Lebanon over the weekend. The campaign touted the meetings in e-mailed releases, but there was little coverage of the meetings -- and the Syrian News Agency even referred to the Ohio congressman as a senator. Check out the photo of Kucinich sitting across from Syrian President Al-Assad.

OBAMA: The Illinois senator debuted a new stump speech in New Hampshire on Monday. Here's the nut graph: "So let's be clear: there are a lot of people who have been in Washington longer than me; who have better connections and go to the right dinner parties and know how to talk the Washington talk. Well I might not have the experience Washington likes, but I believe I have the experience America needs right now."

The Union Leader gave Obama's press shop the coverage it desired: the speech was seen as a veiled shot at Clinton.

RICHARDSON: Richardson wants to forgive college loans with a year of national service. "As part of your college loan structure -- in other words we'll pay them off, if you give your country one year of national service: work in a forest, clean up a forest ... work in a hospital, go in the military, go in the Peace Corps, go in Vista," Richardson said in New Hampshire. 
 
God's caucus? "Iowa, for good reason, for constitutional reasons, for reasons related to the Lord, should be the first caucus and primary," Richardson said.

A few more thoughts on how little has changed in the Republican contest since the end of June, especially regarding the question marks floating over their campaigns… Giuliani continues to lead in the national polls, but can this socially moderate New Yorker truly win the GOP nod? Romney's millions of dollars in TV ads have paid off in Iowa and New Hampshire, but can the former one-term governor Massachusetts win the typically decisive contest of South Carolina? Fred Thompson -- finally -- jumps into the race officially on Thursday, but does he resemble Wes Clark more than he does Ronald Reagan? Will McCain have enough money in the bank to compete against his rivals? And why didn't Huckabee ever do more organizationally and financially to compete for the nomination?

Here's the New York Times' man/woman-on-the-street piece about the GOP race: "Interviews with dozens of Republicans across the country this Labor Day weekend found that despite the already lengthy campaign, which started almost a year ago, many candidates have made either no impression or a negative one, and many voters are still chewing over their options… By and large, those interviewed said they still supported Mr. Bush, but they were deeply ambivalent about the war in Iraq, leaving them ambivalent in turn about their party's presidential candidates, most of whom have so far stuck close to Mr. Bush on the matter." Overall, Giuliani comes out looking the best of the GOP field with these folks.

GIULIANI: The New York Daily News previews Giuliani's speech in Mississippi today -- in an area devastated by Hurricane Katrina -- where he will "highlight his plans on emergency preparedness, an issue some see as his greatest strength -- and others among his biggest vulnerabilities." One of the items he'll unveil is a program called ReadyStat "aimed at shortening the 72 hours it often takes the feds to mobilize their response to a major disaster."

In addition to this speech, his campaign today unveils a Web site makeover, which is going to be refreshed with some new features -- so we've learned. They'll be launching our social network sites with a new feature called "Running with Rudy." It will provide a behind the scenes, insider's look at the campaign. The "Running with Rudy" feature is what the campaign is most excited about, frankly.

HUCKABEE: He said he would be a strong opponent against Clinton. "Hillary is a strong, strong candidate, much stronger than a lot of Republicans want to accept," Huckabee said. "But the reality is that if we put someone up whose views on some of the issues that rally our base don't rally our base, then we're going to be in big trouble."

HUNTER: The California congressman won a Texas straw poll.

MCCAIN: Remember John McCain? Remember John Weaver? Well, the adviser speaks out for the first time, but seems content not to settle scores.

THOMPSON: Fred Thompson is featured on the cover of the latest Newsweek, as the magazine anticipates his effect on the GOP race, and whether his critics in Washington are correct when they say that Fred just doesn't want it bad enough. After a fairly exhaustive account of his life in both Washington and Hollywood, Holly Bailey seems to conclude that Thompson just might be tougher than he has appeared so far while "testing the waters."

Some of his soon-to-be opponents have already begun criticizing him for his late entry into the race and his decision to schedule his announcement in conflict with the New Hampshire debate. The AP quotes Mitt Romney as saying, "Well, I guess the only comment I'd make to Fred Thompson would be: Why the hurry? Why not take a little longer to think this over? From my standpoint, if he wants to wait until January or February, that would be ideal."

This morning, the campaign announced that GOP communications strategist Karen Hanretty is its new deputy communications director. New communications director Todd Harris is uniting the old Schwarzenegger team….

By the way, did Thompson adviser Mary Matalin inadvertently add fuel to the Fred is lazy fire by noting on "Meet the Press" that Thompson was better served appearing on Leno than at tomorrow's debate in New Hampshire?

Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Richardson and Obama have all signed the pledge not to campaign in states that violate the Democratic Party's nominating selection calendar. Early Friday, just Biden, Dodd, and Richardson had signed on. Then Edwards and Obama pledged to do the same, and then Clinton joined in.

Did the DNC inadvertently help the GOP in its general election efforts to hold Florida in '08 and pick off Michigan? So argues Human Events' J. Rubin.

Speaking of the calendar, the Los Angeles Times has a "state of the race" piece about the Dem primary efforts in California. Clinton is the political machine, and Obama is the grassroots. The Democratic machine is AWFULLY powerful in California.

We'd be remiss if we didn't mention the battle for the Senate this morning: the picture only gets bleaker for the GOP. Sure, the Craig resignation probably keeps Idaho in the red, but don't assume the shadow of Craig won't at least keep that race more competitive than it should be. Then there's the John Warner retirement, which frankly may just hand the Democrats a seat if Mark Warner is as popular in '08 as he is right now in the state. Toss in the dismal GOP recruiting, and it appears the Democrats will have to play defense in exactly ONE state (Louisiana), while staying on offense in at least six states: Colorado, Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, and Oregon -- and perhaps a couple more (see: Kentucky, New Mexico and even Alaska!!?!??!).

Also in this Washington Times op-ed today, is House Minority Leader John Boehner framing what the congressional battles will look like?

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) has resigned. After two days of speculation that Craig would step down, the senator, who pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct after a sex-sting incident in a Minneapolis airport men's room, he said he will leave his post on Sept. 30.

"I apologize for what I have caused," said a somber Craig with his wife, daughter and Idaho Gov. Butch Otter beside him. "I'm deeply sorry."

He added, "I have little control over what people choose to believe," but to continue to serve would be an "unwanted distraction."

Craig said it was "humbling" to have his family, Otter and other Idaho politicians with him.

"For any public official at this moment in time to be standing with Larry Craig is in itself a humbling experience," Craig said.

To applause, Craig said, "It is with sadness and deep regret that I intend to resign from the senate effective Sept. 30th."

Idaho Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is widely thought to be a strong possibility to replace Craig.

Craig's resignation comes as a growing chorus of Republicans publicly chastised Craig and called for his resignation.