NBC/National Journal campaign reporter Adam Aigner-Treworgy sets the scene for Thompson's first stop today in Iowa… With his first official campaign event scheduled for 3:00 pm ET today, the Fred Thompson camp is working hard to create the right atmosphere to ensure that its candidate enters the race with a splash. On the second floor of the Polk County Convention Complex in downtown Des Moines, in a wide-open room with the capacity for more than three hundred people, the campaign has erected a large stage equipped with three video projectors set in a faux-limestone façade.

The first thing supporters will see is a short video presentation that the advance team has called a biopic on the life of Fred Thompson, followed by a brief introduction by a prominent member of the local media and then a 30- to 45-minute speech that will serve as Thompson's official introduction to both Iowa and the entire country.

In the hallway outside the convention hall, a small group of self-proclaimed "Fred-Heads" gathered on Wednesday night to decorate the bland concrete walls with hand painted signs featuring slogans such as "Run, Fred, Run" and "Got Fred?" The volunteers consisted mostly of local activists with an interest in Thompson. Some had defected from the McCain campaign after the senator's struggling campaign made drastic changes in his Iowa staff, while others claimed they have been waiting for Thompson to run since the early 1990s. One of the volunteer sign-painters said that Iowans were still struggling to find a candidate to support, and that she suspected the predominant emotion among Thursday's attendees would be curiosity. The only real question remaining is: Who's going to show up?

With no real campaign headquarters in the state, his sole rep here in Iowa has been a young man named Andrew Dorr. Dorr -- who had been rumored to be heading up Rudy Giuliani's Iowa strategy before Thompson officially hired him in late June -- was the political director for Jim Nussle's (R) failed gubernatorial campaign in 2006 and is fairly well respected among Iowa politicos. He will be heading up Thompson's Midwest efforts and the feeling seems to be that any supporters Thompson has in the Midwest thus far are due to Dorr's hard groundwork.

The New York Times' lead: "After months of false starts, staff shake-ups, and questions about the seriousness of his intention to run for president, Fred D. Thompson rolled out his candidacy last night with a two-pronged entry into the race that sought to take the spotlight from his Republican opponents as they squared off in a debate."  More: "But already, there are questions about the wisdom of Mr. Thompson's television and Internet tactics, his late entry and the decision not to participate in the debate. On CNN, he was being called a 'no show,' and in New Hampshire, there was outright disappointment."

The Washington Post: "Thompson's long-awaited announcement brings a potentially formidable candidate into the Republican race. His Southern roots, conservative message and celebrity appeal from movies and television have already pushed him into second place in most national polls, behind Giuliani. But Thompson's late start leaves him well behind his rivals in organizing his campaign in early-voting states."

The Boston Globe writes that his "unusual" campaign launch "will either go down in political history as a brilliant strategic stroke or a classic blunder."

Interestingly, as the Boston Globe notes, Thompson's video announcement singled out Clinton, by name, "declaring that Republicans don't want 'another Clinton victory. Our country needs us to win next year, and I'm ready to lead that effort.'"

New Hampshire GOP chair Fergus Cullen didn't have great things to say about Thompson's decision to skip the debate. "For him to then go on Jay Leno the same night and be trading jokes while other candidates are having a substantive discussion on issues is not going to be missed by New Hampshire voters," Cullen said.

The Washington Post says the debate "was among the liveliest of the year. Once past an opening question about the missing Thompson, the candidates turned on one another. Romney, Giuliani, McCain and Rep. Tom Tancredo (Colo.) sparred over immigration. McCain chastised Romney over his reluctance to say the "surge" policy in Iraq is clearly working. Huckabee and Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) clashed over whether the United States should stay in Iraq or get out."

The Boston Globe's lead is Romney attacking Giuliani on immigration. "But in the first debate of the fall campaign season, both Romney and Giuliani struggled to keep their balance amid sideswipes from Senator John McCain of Arizona, who sharply questioned Romney's assessment of the situation in Iraq and Giuliani's level of experience."

Ron Paul's camp ought to feel good that they made it into AP's lead on the debate.

The Chicago Tribune leads with the barbs at Thompson and highlights the Huckabee-Paul back-and-forth up high in its piece.

The Union Leader is one of the few papers to note -- up high -- the candidates' responses on Larry Craig. "Although candidates were asked their thoughts on the recent scandal, none outright condemned his actions."

The Des Moines Register's Yepsen gave the debate to McCain and Huckabee and called Thompson the big loser.

CBN's Brody joins Yepsen in concluding that McCain and Huckabee came out on top.

Also, McCain won the Luntz focus group that was featured on Fox News.

The American Spectator's Rubin also notes how McCain helped himself by playing the role of "sober" adult.

Despite these positive reviews for McCain, the Union Leader notes that McCain's supporters at the debate "were virtually nonexistent, not one of his signs in sight as he struggles to keep his campaign afloat in a summer rife with staff and budget cuts."

BIDEN: The AP writes, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden arrived in Baghdad on Thursday for a one-day visit to assess the military and political situation ahead of a report from the top U.S. commander. He was scheduled to meet with Iraqi government officials in the capital and visit tribal leaders in Anbar province. He also was to meet with U.S. troops and other military officials."

CLINTON: Calling her the "clear" frontrunner, The Washington Post's David Broder decided to devote his off time to reading up on Clinton. He concludes: "Her marriage is the central fact in her life, and this partnership of Bill and Hillary Clinton is indissoluble. She cannot function without him, and he would not have been president without her. If she becomes president, he will play as central a role in her presidency as she did in his. And that is something the country will have to ponder."

The New York Times front-pages this headline in its print version: "Clinton Donor Appears to Be a Fugitive Again." How quick will Clinton's opponents begin to compare Norman Hsu's fugitive status with one-time fugitive Marc Rich?

Hsu's attorney said he doesn't know where he is and Hsu "even hoodwinked his office, sending them on a wild-goose chase for his passport at his Manhattan condo." After a 90-minute search, the passport was not found.

While unveiling a new GAO report on EPA's second program to address 9/11 contamination, the New York senator did not miss the opportunity to attack the Bush Administration, NBC's Lauren Appelbaum reports. "Where the Bush administration and the EPA has failed, we must do everything we can to succeed," Clinton said, with New York Reps. Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn Maloney standing by her side. The trio said the report shows serious flaws in the EPA's ability to address indoor contamination in New York after 9/11.
 
Clinton also said the Bush Administration has a "disregard for scientific evidence" and promised to send the EPA "back to the drawing board" to come up with a plan to test and clean up dangerous contaminants and to ensure the EPA is prepared for future disasters with an indoor contamination component. "The EPA, in fact the entire government under this Administration, is not prepared for the present," she continued. "We need to be sure it is prepared for the future."

DODD: He's calling for a ban on all Chinese imports.
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2007/09/dodd_calls_for.html

EDWARDS: The campaign nabs another union endorsement today, via the Transport Workers Union. The campaign notes: "Close to half of the TWU members and retirees live in states that will caucus or vote on or before February 5th including 8,000 members in Nevada, 10,000 active and retired members in Oklahoma, 12,000 active and retired members in California, 8,000 active and retired members in New Jersey, and over 50,000 active and retired members in New York."

Meanwhile, look for the Edwards camp to tout the new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio that shows him doing better against all of the GOP candidates than Clinton.

OBAMA: The Illinois senator continues to sharpen his attacks on Clinton, taking on her failure to pass health care reform in '93.

Carroll County-based Iowa columnist Doug Burns is impressed by Obama's most recent stopover in the area.

Obama also made headlines yesterday by claiming that experience isn't an issue between him and Clinton and Edwards.  "I've passed more bills, I'm sure, than either of them. Certainly on the state legislative level." Obama's campaign staff told the AP that he was referring to his work in the U.S. legislature and the U.S. Senate. (As NBC/National Journal campaign reporter Aswini Anburajan notes, this is a comment that's dying to be fact-checked.) 
 
By the way, Obama's appearances in Iowa may be resonating with voters there. The National Review online says that the most surprising convert from a 50-attendee coffee for Obama was the host herself. "'I've always been a Rush Limbaugh listener,' Stephanie Frederick says. 'And sometimes I find myself thinking, you know, a lot of the things that school of thought thinks... Of Obama, she says, "A lot of what he had to say really made a lot of sense to me.'"  

GIULIANI: The Giuliani camp announced yesterday that actor Robert Duvall, along with his wife, have endorsed the former New York mayor and will host a fundraiser for him later this month.

The Chicago Tribune looks at Giuliani's efforts to woo conservative legal types in D.C. with coded language like "strict constructionist."

The Politico's Wilner takes a look into Giuliani's campaign. "If Giuliani prevails, post-primary quarterbacks will look back at the first eight months of this year and declare that the lead time was invaluable."

Giuliani's trying to raise money off of Clinton: "Relying on the tenor -- and the mailing list -- of his aborted Senate bid against Clinton in 2000," the New York Daily News writes, "the Republican Giuliani dispatched a mass mailing warning donors: 'If Hillary Clinton or any of her like-minded Democrat followers are elected President, they will take this country in a fundamentally different direction.'"

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) appears to have come out against the GOP attempt to pass a ballot initiative that would split up the state's electoral votes. "'I feel like, if you're all of a sudden in the middle of the game start changing the rules, it's kind of odd,' [he] said… 'It almost feels like a loser's mentality, saying, "I cannot win with those rules. So let me change the rules."'"

NBC/National Journal reporter Carrie Dann notes that the presidential hopefuls flying into Iowa might be surprised when they look out their campaign plane window in search of a rare zen moment -- and see THIS instead. (We thought crop circles were a bizarro X-Files phenomenon.  Apparently, aliens are health care voters, too!)

The Washington Post: "Iraq's army, despite measurable progress, will be unable to take over internal security from U.S. forces in the next 12 to 18 months and 'cannot yet meaningfully contribute to denying terrorists safe haven,' according to a report on the Iraqi security forces published today… The assessment by the Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq is one of several independent progress reports ordered by Congress for delivery before the administration presents its own scorecard next week. Members of the 20-member group, headed by retired Marine Gen. James Jones, traveled throughout Iraq over the summer and met with hundreds of U.S. and Iraqi officials as well as leading nongovernmental experts on the Iraqi forces. Jones will present the 152-page document … in testimony today before the Senate and House Armed Services committees."

The Post also examines whether the violence has actually decreased in Iraq.

The New York Times says "Senate Democratic leaders are showing a new openness to compromise as they try to attract Republican support for forcing at least modest troop withdrawals in the coming months… [S]enior Democrats now say they are willing to rethink their push to establish a withdrawal deadline of next spring if doing so will attract the 60 Senate votes needed to prevail."

The DCCC last night released a new Web video called, "Moral High Ground," which it highlights past GOP scandals (Craig, Vitter, Foley, etc.).

From NBC's Chuck Todd
I had to watch on TiVo tonight... I
started watching the debate live around 10pm and then stopped myself
and watched from the beginning on tape delay. The last two debates on
ABC were both taped delayed for those of us in D.C., so I'm getting
used to filing late these days. BTW, what did we ever do before TiVO,
but I digress.

There were three clear winners tonight: Giuliani, Huckabee and Thompson. And there was one big loser tonight: Romney.

Let's
start with the winners: Thompson came out a winner within the first
five minutes thanks to the moderator's opening question about the
candidate-to-be's decision to go on Jay Leno instead of showing up for
this debate. The fact that every candidate (including Giuliani, Romney,
Huckabee and even McCain) took potshots (a few of which were even a bit
cheap) reinforced the idea that the entire Republican field views
Thompson as a major candidate, a major threat and one of the
frontrunners. The Thompson folks could not have asked for a better
setup.

As for the two winners of the debate who actually
participated, Giuliani's performance was particularly strong, perhaps
his best debate to date. He's clearly comfortable being the
frontrunner; he absorbs the attacks from opponents without looking as
if that opponent matters. His strongest answers were in defense of NOT
signing the no-tax pledge and on guns. Judging by how Giuliani treated
his opponents on stage, one gets the sense the only candidate Giuliani
fears is Thompson since he's the only candidate Rudy truly engaged.

Huckabee
doing well at a debate is about as common as the sun rising in the
east. In particular, the exchange with Ron Paul where Huckabee got to
defend McCain, defend the surge and also call Iraq a mistake was, dare
I say, a mix of Reagan and Clinton. He was just smooth and showed
himself as someone who is a good conservative Republican who could be a
very electable Republican nominee.

The big loser tonight (of the
top tier candidates) was Romney. He certainly didn't have any friends
among the debate questioners and the diner patrons and that kept Romney
on the defensive all night. (Will his campaign question how much
they've been sucking up to Fox, btw?) In all seriousness, Romney's got
to figure out how to turn all these attacks into a positive; Wednesday
night was not a great night for the candidate purported to be ahead in
the early states.

As for the rest of the field, McCain was a bit
uneven. At times, he was funny and loose; at other times, he was almost
OVERLY serious and a bit tight. That uneven mix kept me from calling
him one of my winners. Brownback seems less and less relevant (why did
he stay in after his poor Ames Straw poll showing?); Tancredo seemed
almost a non-factor; Hunter is very good at playing the Patriot card
but what part of the party does Hunter represent that the frontrunners
aren't representing?; Ron Paul was as angry as he's been; At one point,
I was simply wondering why he just didn't scream, "Hey kids, GET OFF MY
LAWN!"

The next post has my tape-delayed as-I-was-watching thoughts:

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Since I didn't get to live-blog like my colleagues Mark and Domenico, I did keep notes as if I were live-blogging, so here are my running debate thoughts:

The potshots at Fred were something else. McCain's "bedtime" remark was bitter. Romney seemed to soften his attack on him a bit by being a little more good-natured about welcoming him.  Meanwhile, Giuliani's smart remark about "Law and Order" was tough too. Overall, interesting tactic because all the potshots do serve Thompson well in this one respect: it entrenches him as one of the frontrunners. Just acknowledging his presence as the opening question helped Thompson become an immediate debate winner.

-- The first REAL question was about immigration and the moderators attempted to get Giuliani and Romney into a tiff. Romney cooperated and took a direct shot at Giuliani. Giuliani, however, decided NOT to engage Romney by name. He defended himself but didn't necessarily acknowledge Romney. That had to be a bit frustrating to the Romney folks.

-- Huckabee's FEDEX analogy on tracking immigrants was effective. The guy is good at simplifying a problem and talking, well, like a normal person.

-- During the wide shot, the dark suits of the entire field and the ultra white faces are an interesting contrast with the Democratic field. It's not a new thought but it is striking to those of us who watch these debates so closely.

-- Tancredo's Buchanan impersonation is getting better but it's still just that, an imitation.

-- Romney is trying just a bit too hard to draw out Giuliani...

-- Is anyone else surprised that Brownback decided to stay in this race after the Ames Straw Poll? His role in this primary seems more diminished.

-- Romney's abortion answer was closer to being pro-choice than he answered before. His campaign will flip out at that thought, but the fact that he singled out showing compassion for the mother in this potential abortion situation is telling.

-- Rudy deftly handled the gun question by turning it into a crime answer.

-- Ron Paul is the most fascinating candidate to watch at these debates for this one reason: you don't have an idea of where he'll come down on an issue. The airline answer and arming folks at airports was, um, unique.

-- McCain was methodical tonight; at points REALLY on his game and very funny; at other times he was almost OVERLY serious.

-- Giuliani is continuing to play for that McCain endorsement...

-- Why is Romney saying "if the surge is working"; it's interesting that he's leaving himself A LOT OF wiggle room on whether the surge is working. It left him wide open for that McCain attack.

-- Whoa, did Huckabee just invoke the Colin Powell "Pottery Barn" if you break it, you fix it, line? Also, while defending the need for the surge, it does sound like Huckabee did acknowledge that he thinks going into Iraq was a "mistake."  BTW, what Ron Paul did for Giuliani in one of the first debates, he's doing for Huckabee this debate.  

-- Did anyone else wonder when Ron Paul was going to simply say, "HEY KIDS, GET OFF MY LAWN!"

-- Hunter seems to enjoy of playing the role of his party's Irving Berlin... He's Mr. Patriot, always ready with a compliment that can get the audience to applaud. But his role in the primary seems less certain now than before. Just what wing of the party isn't being represented that needs Hunter in the race?

-- For all the sucking up that the Romney campaign does for Fox, you'd think the network's debate organizers would be a little nicer with their questions. Not so tonight. He seemed to get the brunt of the most negative-worded questions, be it from the moderators or the diner folks. It put Romney on the defensive for most of the night and guaranteed he was going to be one of tonight's losers.

-- Just one comment on the production; Overall, the moderators did a solid job; no editorial gripes from here (though the diner break seemed over-produced); That said, my only production comment has to do with the various Dallas Cowboy "stars" that were behind the candidates via the backdrops. I know Fox is fired up about their NFC contract (game 1 on Sunday) but as someone who can't stand the Cowboys, I wish I wasn't seeing that star staring at me behind every candidate.

-- Giuliani was strong on why he didn't sign the no-tax pledge. McCain struggled with the question (he was the other candidate on stage who didn't sign the pledge; the other six did). As for Giuliani, he answered in a very presidential way.

-- Giuliani's answer on the personal life issues wasn't great. He's answered it better. Overall, his attempt to waive off the issue is smart politics but I've heard him answer the question better. That said, it wasn't horrible.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
DURHAM, N.H. -- Yes, it's late. But some interesting notes, especially on Romney's to-be-defined Iraq position. Romney adviser Vin Weber said "apparently" and "looks like" the surge is working means "the surge is working." But Weber added, "The surge is not an end unto itself."

Weber added that Romney does not support benchmarks or timetables. U.S. Rep. Chris Shays, a McCain supporter, though said of Romney, "I think he's leaving all options open." Shays conceded that the political end is not working in Iraq and that by most military assesments, there will be a drawdown of troops by March or April simply because the military cannot maintain the current level.

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
In a taped interview with Jay Leno, Fred Thompson officially announces he is running for president. "I am running for president of the United States," Thompson said to loud applause at the Tonight Show. He recognized he is starting late in terms of the other candidates, but said it's really not that late.
 
"Everybody sort of changed the rules. Usually, you don't announce until after Labor Day. But they started running a lot earlier, spending millions of dollars and so forth and everybody said you couldn't run this year without raising a hundred million dollars and starting much earlier. I don't believe that. I wasn't in the room when they made the rules, so I kind of had to follow my own lead."
 
Thompson said he doesn't "think much of" debates and prefers small groups and one-on-one discussions. "For those who talk about that New Hampshire situation (referring to tonight's Republican debate, which Thompson is skipped), certainly not disrespecting them, but it's a lot more difficult to get on 'The Tonight Show' than it is to get into the presidential debate." And on his opponents, who are debating in New Hampshire this evening, he called them "formidable," but said that he will be as well.
 
Addressing Iraq, Thompson said he was for the Iraq war."To think that had we not gone in there, we wouldn't have had any problems is dead wrong," Thompson said, stating America has been successful in ridding the country of Sadaam and his two sons and preventing a nuclear race with Iran. "We stay until we get the job done," Thompson said, stating America must show her strength.

From NBC's Mark Murray
He answered this question by discussing 1) that private is different from the public and 2) that -- like many Americans -- he isn't perfect when it comes to family. "I am not running as the perfect candidate for president," he said. "I am running as a human being."

It's an honest answer, and something MANY can related to. But will it work?

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
DURHAM, N.H. -- Maybe the toughest question tonight for Giuliani came from the kid in the booth. He criticized Giuliani's family ties, but Giuliani turned it, saying he turned around New York City and apparently wiped out the mafia.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
DURHAM, N.H. -- Chris Wallace tried to go after McCain for not signing the pledge not to raise taxes. McCain turned the conversation to spending and pork.

GIULIANI: "It is my intention to lower taxes."

Wallace then tried to go after Romney (again), saying his nickname in Massachusetts was "Fee-Fee" for raising fees. Romney said he'd never heard that and laughed it off. After his answer, he took a shot at Democrats, particularly Edwards.

From NBC's Mark Murray
McCain: "We let spending get out of control."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
DURHAM, N.H. -- Is Romney trying to have it both ways? He called Iraq a "mess" earlier this week. But tonight he said the US has to win in Iraq. He also said the surge is "apparently" successful. Then "looks" successful. He then said let's wait for the Petraeus report.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
DURHAM, N.H. -- Is anyone still watching this? By the way, interesting note, we are seated directly across from the workout room at the University of New Hampshire. None of the college students seem to care there's a debate going on. The TVs are tuned to the Red Sox for the most part.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
DURHAM, N.H. -- Watch the debate on Iraq in the Republican party. There is a potential for a on Iraq. We're seeing it tonight with Huckabee v. Paul. But Huckabee certainly has a way with words that Paul can't compete with.

From NBC's Mark Murray
In the first FOX GOP debate, it was Rudy vs. Paul on Iraq. This time, it is Huckabee vs. Paul. The moderators let them duke it out, and it was great TV.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Who knew? We didn't... He just cited the New York Times columnist, referring to his view that there needs to be a "political surge" in Iraq. He also said the "world is flat," a reference to Friedman's book.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Who knew an adverb could cause a showdown at the debate? McCain took issue with Romney saying the surge is "apparently" working. McCain said there is no "apparently" about it. "The surge is working," McCain replied sternly. 

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
DURHAM, N.H. -- In 2000 at the Gore-Bradley debate at the Apollo, the "fact check" spin teams were working overtime. Hot-off-the-presses (printers) releases were flying. This cycle hasn't been like that at all yet. But e-mail is slowly becoming that. Tonight, already McCain, Giuliani and Romney have sent out lots of fact check e-mails, particularly on the debate on immigration.

From NBC's Mark Murray
And we finally get a question on Iraq/national security. It was regarding McCain's recent comment that he has more natl security experience than anyone else, including Giuliani.

Neither took the bait; they really seem to like each other.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
DURHAM, N.H. -- Another veiled shot from Romney to Giuliani? "I believe all of us, almost all of us in this room" want an America where abortion is illegal.

HUCKABEE: Repeated that he wants a Human Life Amendment to the Constitution that says life begins at conception

From NBC's Mark Murray
We finally got the Larry Craig question, and Hunter said he should resign. He followed up with this, noting a difference between the parties. "When our guys have problems, they leave."

Oh, really? Craig is now having second thoughts about resigning. And Vitter -- after being linked to a DC madam -- certainly hasn't left.