From NBC's Chuck Todd
Quick Saturday post just to see if you folks are paying attention to anything NON-Iraq. Frankly, many of us are not. But what does it say about the team Giuliani is surrounding himself with if the second major appointment Pres. Bush makes these last six months is somebody who endorsed the former New York City mayor?

According to the Washington Post, former Solicitor General Ted Olsen is viewed as the leading candidate to become the nation's new Attorney General. Why Olsen? His reputation is top-notch and he should have little problem getting through the confirmation process. Oh, and conservatives love Olsen.

Earlier this year, Giuliani lost his chief Iowa supporter, former Congressman Jim Nussle, when Bush named him the nation's Budget Dir. He was just confirmed into the post last week.

Giuliani folks will argue that the preferences Bush is making by tapping his supporters for key admin posts is proof the GOP conservative establishment is not afraid of Giuliani. Will that message resonate with GOP primary voters? The only downside for Giuliani, having key top endorsers end up in the Bush administration is that if he's the GOP nominee, he'll look less like a change agent.

Still, losing endorsers to the administration is very much a compliment to Giuliani, at least as far as the GOP establishment is concerned.

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
On the road between Sioux City and Mason City, IA, Thompson made an unexpected stopover at Bob's Drive In in Le Mars, the self-billed "ice cream capital of the world." Le Mars, in fact, is the headquarters of Wells Blue Bunny Ice Cream, and nearly all of the diners at Bob's were Blue Bunny employees. Yet despite spending nearly 30 minutes there, walking through Bob's and shaking hands with numerous diners, Thompson re-boarded the bus -- without trying any of the town's specialties. He didn't even sit and eat one of the "Bob Dogs" with any of the diners. Afterwards a campaign spokesman jokingly justified Thompson's decision not to eat by pointing to Thompson's well-publicized diet and workout regimen.

From NBC's Samantha Mehrotra
Instead of the campaign trail, Biden was in Iraq yesterday to assess the progress made on political and military benchmarks. Speaking to reporters in Ramadi, the senator discussed his ongoing concerns about the possibility of achieving stability in the country. "Unless the central government is able to actually begin to work with the promises, there is not a whole lot of prospect... I doubt that the unity at a federal level is likely to occur in the near term."
 
"I'm hoping to … make it clear that the patience of the American people is running very thin," he added. "Although terrorism is an international problem, Iraqi unity is an Iraqi problem." Despite these problems however, Biden said progress is being made locally and that the United States military and tribal leaders are making strides against Al Qaeda.
 
Regarding the presidential campaign, Biden made it clear during his visit today that he is the most informed candidate when it comes to Iraq. When asked why he decided to come to Ramadi, the senator said: "This is my ninth trip. I've been here more than the president and more than most of my colleagues. I come about every six months."

From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
Contrast these two reactions today to Bin Laden's videotape...

McCain, per a statement: "The release of the purported bin Laden video starkly reminds us that there is no greater responsibility for a president than to protect America from attack and to command our military forces in a time of war against a barbaric enemy -- an enemy plotting every day to kill Americans. Osama bin Laden and his henchmen must be hunted down -- and as president, I will... My presidency will be al Qaeda's worst nightmare."

And Thompson, per the AP: "Bin Laden is more symbolism than anything else," he said. "I think it demonstrates to people once again that we're in a global war."

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
On the second day of Fred Thompson's official campaign, the Republican presidential hopeful held his first town hall -- but with auditorium seating instead of the audience-friendly round stage many candidates have used. The question-and-answer session forced Thompson to address issues, including healthcare, homosexuality, and energy independence. A room at the Sioux City, Iowa, convention center was filled with about 150 to 175 people. There were about 100 seats set up and some stood in doorways.
 
Thompson got a wide range of questions, including one from a man in the audience who asked what "society's position should be on deviances including homosexuality." Thompson answered by saying the federal government should "show no favor for any particular class of citizen" and "not set aside categories for special treatments."
 
Thompson later addressed the federal marriage amendment. "I would support a constitutional amendment which says some off-the-wall court decision in one state that recognizes a marriage in that state like Massachusetts, just to pick a state, cannot go to another state and have it recognized in that state. You are not bound by what another state does." Thompson added, "My amendment would also state that judges could not impose this on the federal or state level unless a state legislature signed off on it."
 
Like yesterday, Thompson devoted a large portion of his opening speech to national security, but today he also talked of new support coming from the Iraqis, who he says have had a taste of Al Qaeda and are now siding with American forces. Speaking to reporters, Thompson attacked his Democratic counterparts for not seeing any positive change. "There are some folks on the Democratic side who have become so vested politically on the feelings of the left wing of their party that no good news is going to be good enough for them, and they'll constantly concentrate on the negativity. But again, we all have to look down the road, what is going to make a more secure situation for the United States of America."

Thompson continued to stress he is a "common sense conservative," called for smaller government and said he is for "standing tall" for Second Amendment rights, anti-abortion rights, lower taxes, more individual, political and market freedom, and free and fair competition and trade.
 
On healthcare, Thompson called for a "divorce [from] the complete dependency so many have on their employment" for health care. He proposes an open marketplace situation that would provide individual freedom and competition to drive down the prices. He dismissed the idea of universal health care, saying many European countries are trying to get rid of the system and move toward America's current health-care policies.
 
On why he's seeking the presidency. "I was blessed, as you can see, later in life, with something I hadn't planned on, but something that's been the greatest blessing imaginable to me," Thompson said of having children. "But it causes me to think what kind of a world, what kind of a country, will these kids grow up in. How many daddies get a chance to do something about it?"
 
"I could sit back and read somebody else's scripts, cash somebody else's checks, and that's enjoyable and I highly recommend it if you get the opportunity," Thompson added. "But this is something different."
 
During the town hall, Thompson's daughter wandered onto the stage and hugged her father's leg. The audience applauded her interpretation of an elephant before she returned to the side of the stage with her mom and younger brother.
 
After speaking, Thompson spent time signing autographs and talking with members of the audience. A parent brought her child over to Thompson, telling him the child loves the movie "Baby's Day Out." Thompson, who played an FBI agent in the film, held the child and talked about the "Tick Tock," the home of the bad guys in the movie. The child gave him a kiss in response.
 
Another child asked Thompson what would happen to "Law and Order" if he became president. Thompson said he hopes the re-runs keep playing. "Every time they re-run one, they got to send me like five dollars or something," Thompson said to a rousing round of laughter, "so you keep watching."

From NBC's Mark Murray
Per his campaign, Mike Huckabee today sent a letter to Fred Thompson, inviting the former Tennessee senator to debate. "I am aware of your comments on Fox News that you would like to participate in a series of Lincoln-Douglas styled debates. I would like to officially accept your offer," Huckabee says in the letter. "I agree that what is needed is a real discussion by the candidates about their vision for the future of our country."

"Senator, let's lead by example and get the ball rolling," Huckabee adds.

From NBC's Andy Merten
Speaking days before the sixth anniversary of Sept. 11, John Edwards gave a policy speech on terrorism and counterterrorism today in New York City, just blocks from Ground Zero. He used the podium to take several jabs at the current administration and GOP presidential frontrunners -- as well as some subtler criticisms of those in the Democratic field -- and also rolled out his plan for a multilateral international organization for combating terrorism.
 
The former senator began by blasting the Bush Administration's initial waging and subsequent management of the Iraq war, saying the president used the 9/11 attacks "to justify a preconceived war against a nation he now admits had no ties to al-Qaeda," adding, "George Bush literally gave us his father's war, but without his fathers allies or his father's sense of decency." But while Edwards sometimes makes a point to acknowledge and apologize for his yes-vote for the original authorization of the war, he made no mention of it today.
 
He continued by lamenting Osama bin Laden's continued at-large status, calling it Bush's "starkest failure," and commenting on reports of the al-Qaeda leader's first video appearance in nearly three years. Said Edwards: "I don't need to wait and hear what this murderer has to say. My position is clear. I can make you this solemn promise: as president, I will never rest until we have hunted bin Laden down and served him justice."
 
Edwards turned to his proposed solution for protecting against continued terror threats about halfway through his approximately 30-minute speech, touting a two-pronged approach of "strength and cooperation" in the form of a multilateral organization called the Counterterrorism and Intelligence Treaty Organization (CITO). The "historic new coalition" would create a forum for member states to voluntarily share financial, police, customs, and immigration intelligence, he said, adding that nations that join will be required to meet standards of rooting out extremists within their borders.
 
The presidential hopeful drew upon this week's foiled terror attack in Germany as an example of "the promise of a new multilateral approach," adding, "We must be able to coordinate similar operations throughout the world, in the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and anywhere terrorists would attack."
 
While the speech served as Edwards' introduction of his CITO plans, he did reiterate his now well-known pledge to help alleviate world poverty as a tool for preventing the breeding of extremists who fuel terrorism. "Millions of people around the world are sitting on the fence," he said, adding, "If they perceive America as a bully, it will drive them in the other direction." He went on to assert that expanded American funding for global primary education, microfinancing, and preventative healthcare would aid in stemming the extremism that fuels terrorism.
 
As for his political digs, Edwards named his potential Republican opponents by name, saying, "Some politicians, like Rudolph Giuliani, Mitt Romney, and John McCain have responded to the shortcomings and backfires of the Administration's approach by essentially doubling-down."

He adopted a more between-the-lines approach for his jab at Clinton by adding, "Some running for the Democratic nomination have even argued that the Bush-Cheney approach has made us safer." And as for Pakistan, Edwards sounded a lot like Obama: "If we have actionable intelligence about imminent terrorist activity and the Pakistan government refuses to act, we will."

From NBC's Ken Strickland and Mark Murray
Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) will be holding a press conference on Monday at the Omaha Press Club to discuss his political future.

Note: Several months ago, Hagel held a similar press conference, in which he was expected to discuss a possible presidential bid. But, to the disappointment of many reporters who traveled to Nebraska for that, he didn't make any news.

This time, it's expected he'll discuss whether or not he seeks another Senate term. He is up for re-election next year. 

From NBC's Mark Murray
A couple of weeks ago, we wondered if the economy would start becoming a bigger issue in the presidential election -- and whether that would become a problem for Republicans.

Today, the top Democratic candidates are jumping all over a new jobs report showing that 4,000 jobs were lost in August -- the first job drop in four years. Clinton was the first out with a statement: "Alongside continued weakness in wages, healthcare and housing, today's disappointing jobs number is only the most recent indication that the Bush Administration's simplistic supply-side economic strategy is not working for working Americans."

This came Obama: "The Administration's failure to lead while thousands of Americans found themselves in danger of losing their homes is now affecting the broader economy, as thousands of workers lost their jobs this month for the first time in four years."

From NBC's Mark Murray
Conservative blogger Dean Barnett asks this interesting question in the Weekly Standard: Why isn't there a conservative version of liberal blogger Markos Moulitsas or his blog Daily Kos -- at least in terms of influence and power?

Our quick answers to this question: 1) because the Republican Party is typically a top-down organization, which isn't necessarily a conducive environment for an uncontrollable blogger like Kos; and 2) the GOP has controlled the White House in these last six-plus years, and folks like Kos sprouted when the Democrats were out of power -- much like conservative radio flourishing during the Clinton years.

Blogger David Weigel seems to agree with the top-down answer. What are your thoughts?

From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
Two days before the Democratic Univision forum in Miami -- and a day after a new poll showed Obama more competitive than Clinton in Colorado (although within the margin of error) -- the Obama campaign will hold a conference call with reporters later today to announce the endorsement of former Denver Mayor Federico Pena, who served as secretary of Energy and Transportation in Bill Clinton's Administration.

To the best of our knowledge, this is Obama's biggest Hispanic endorsement (outside of those he's won in his home state of Illinois). So far, Clinton has been viewed as having the big lead among Hispanics in the race for the Democratic nomination.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The Oprah Effect: Believe it or not, the Democratic presidential contenders have taken a backseat this week to the Republicans -- a rare occurrence this year. But that could change tomorrow with the Oprah-Obama extravaganza fundraiser in California. Everyone's wondering whether Oprah can do for a politician what she's done for authors. If she becomes as active on the campaign trail as is being speculated, then Obama may have found his secret weapon to target working-class women, which has become the heart and soul of Clinton's support. Then again, there's a risk -- not for Obama, but for Oprah. After all, she has plenty of viewers who are Republicans or who support Clinton. Michael Jordan was credited with saying that he steered clear of politics because "Republicans buy sneakers, too."

*** What Happens When There Is Too Much "Change"?: Now Richardson is up with his "change and experience" TV ad, which states: "Now we need experience and change. Bill Richardson offers both." With it, he joins Obama's and Clinton's own "change" ads. Does this play right into Clinton's hands? The more every Democratic candidate claims the change mantle, does the primary then become a referendum on experience?
 
*** The Good And The Bad: Thompson today hits the second leg of his announcement tour, which takes him to Sioux City and Mason City, IA. How did Day One go? The good: He got tons of news coverage (on TV and in print), and his campaign says it has raised more than $350,000 since Wednesday. The not-so good: The Des Moines Register's David Yepsen called his Des Moines speech "underwhelming"; the New York Times front-pages that some of Thompson's views (on campaign finance reform, tort reform, and affirmative action) don't necessarily make him the heir to Reagan; and his crowds weren't all that impressive. As one smart analyst told First Read yesterday, "Two hundred people in Des Moines is barely the size of an Obama overflow room in Story County." This was always the danger of the late entry: Everything about the Thompson trip is under the microscope.

*** All About Rudy: While this week was all about Thompson, next week will be all about Giuliani. The 9/11 anniversary will bring Rudy an opportunity to brandish his best credential. Of course, next week could also bring renewed scrutiny of Giuliani's 9/11 record. No doubt a news organization or two will have a story or two examining that record – which could either be a big help or a problem. Either way, next week is Rudy's week.

*** Speaking Of 9/11…: A few days before its anniversary, and just a day after reports that Osama bin Laden will give a statement on it, Edwards will give a major a counterterrorism speech today in New York. He will be introduced by 9/11 widow and activist Kristen Breitweiser. In the speech, per the campaign, Edwards will propose creating a modern-day equivalent of NATO for terrorism: the Counterterrorism and Intelligence Treaty Organization (CITO). "Every nation has an interest in shutting down terrorism," Edwards will say. "CITO will create connections between a wide range of nations on terrorism and intelligence, including countries on all continents, including Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Europe. New connections between previously separate nations will be forged, creating new possibilities."

*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Clinton speaks at the New Jersey Democratic Party's annual conference and then addresses the AARP's "Life @ 50+" event in Boston; Huckabee, in New Hampshire, participates in SEIU's "Walk a Day in Their Shoes" program and then delivers remarks at the AARP conference in Boston; McCain raises money in California; Obama hits a "Woman for Obama" luncheon in San Francisco and then heads to Portland for fundraiser; and Romney campaigns in New Hampshire.

Countdown to LA GOV election: 43 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 60 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 71 days
Countdown to Iowa: 129 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 134 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 151 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 424 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 501 days

The campaign is trying to beat back this notion that there's an enthusiasm gap. Its e-campaign director sent out a memo last night claiming:
-- Since 12:01 am last night, over 150,000 unique visitors have viewed its website. Some points of comparison: Mitt Romney's website registered 124,000 visitors in July; Rudy Giuliani's website registered 116,000 visitors over the same 31 day period; John McCain's website registered 104,000 visitors in July 
-- Also, since 12:01 am last night, over 3000 donors have donated online
-- Lastly, 16,000 new "Friends of Fred" have signed up to volunteer for Fred's campaign."

On "GMA" this morning, Thompson didn't commit any news, but he seemed to take a shot at Romney when asked if the former Massachusetts governor was running TV ads showing him running as a way to compare his health and vigor to Thompson. Thompson responded that he'd seen these Romney ads and wondered, "What's he running from?" Thompson was very deliberative in the interview, the same Thompson we've become familiar with.

Thompson manager Bill Lacy held a bus gaggle yesterday, and here are some highlights, courtesy of NBC/National Journal campaign reporter Adam Aigner-Treworgy. Lacy said the campaign raised $363,000 since midnight two nights ago.

Lacy also made the claim that there really isn't a strong GOP frontrunner, saying there's a huge undecided out there. "Our party traditionally has a very, very strong front-runner, basically since Reagan, but this year it's wide open. Now we've done one piece of research, John McLaughlin our pollster has done one piece of research, and we believe this race is wide open."

Lacy on Giuliani's criticism of Thompson that he's never held an executive position: "I understand where he's coming from, the mayor has to make as good a case as he can, and he has been a big city mayor and no one can poo-poo that, but he's never been in an executive position even comparable to being President."

The Washington Post says Thompson "took his bid for the White House to the campaign trail Thursday, vowing to compete aggressively for the support of Iowans and pitching steady, experienced and conservative leadership… In Thursday's speech, he pledged fidelity to a series of conservative principles -- limited government, an aggressive foreign policy and lower taxes -- and promised a commitment to securing the borders and appointing conservative judges."

The New York Times looks at Thompson's attempt to "don the Reagan mantle" and finds while he's certainly conservative on many issues, he's diverged from the Reagan path quite a bit as well.

The Los Angeles Times on the turnout: "The crowd was relatively thin for the national launch of a celebrity's bid for the White House. "Middle of the workday," explained Robert Haus, Thompson's Iowa campaign director. But that did not stop Thompson from declaring: "Wow. This is a wonderful turnout."

The Des Moines Register's Yepsen called Thompson's announcement "underwhelming" and added: "It wasn't very impressive. The crowd of a few hundred didn't seem enthused. Thompson's oratory didn't soar but was somewhat rambling. He would have been better off just to repeat the announcement statement he posted on his Web site. It is much better written and cogently delivered." And here's some strategy advice: "As the Thompson campaign winds it's way across Iowa for the next two days, the actor might want to work on his lines. Punch up the message. Lose the note cards. Pump up the volume. Give us a little stump oratory. And how about a specific policy initiative or two?"

Should Thompson be upset that he's not even getting the most Republican Hollywood support? Apparently, Giuliani has more support for Hollywood types.

The Boston Globe says, "Rival campaigns have already prepared thick dossiers of 'opposition research' chronicling the former Tennessee senator's zigzags on such key issues as abortion rights, immigration, a gay marriage ban, and campaign finance reform

The New York Times front-pages, "Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American commander in Iraq, has told President Bush that he wants to maintain heightened troop levels in Iraq well into next year to reduce the risk of military setbacks, but could accept the pullback of roughly 4,000 troops beginning in January, in part to assuage critics in Congress, according to senior administration and military officials." 

The Washington Post: "Army Gen. David H. Petraeus has indicated a willingness to consider a drawdown of one brigade of between 3,500 and 4,500 U.S. troops from Iraq early next year, with more to follow over the next months based on conditions on the ground, according to a senior U.S. official."

Here's a Q&A Petraeus did with the Boston Globe.

With news that congressional leaders are looking for a compromise on withdrawal from Iraq, Dodd released this statement yesterday: "I cannot and will not support any measure that does not have a firm and enforceable deadline to complete the redeployment of combat troops from Iraq.  Only then will Congress be able to send a clear message to the President that we are changing course in Iraq, and a message to the Iraqis that they need to get their political house in order."

Richardson released this similar statement: "The time for deal-making is long past. We need real leadership in Washington to end this war and bring all of our troops home. The American people elected this Congress to create change and get us out of Iraq, and yet it still has not happened."

Anti-war MoveOn.org sent out an email to its members yesterday, polling them on whether they support primary challengers against Democrats who back the White House on Iraq

Both Dodd and Lieberman are unwilling to compromise on Iraq, but for different reasons, writes the Hartford Courant's David Lightman. "The compromise circulating Capitol Hill would require the Bush administration to start pulling back troops by year's end, as war critics want, but would not set a firm deadline for near-total withdrawal, which satisfies many others. Forget it, said Dodd. … No, said Lieberman."

CLINTON: Norman Hsu was arrested yesterday -- taking a train in Colorado, of all places. The Los Angeles Times: "Hsu, 56, was on an eastbound Amtrak train about noon when he fell ill, and Amtrak personnel took him to St. Mary's Hospital in Grand Junction, Colo., a hospital spokesman said. There, he was arrested by the FBI a few hours later on a federal charge of unlawful flight to avoid prosecution. He was expected to appear before a federal magistrate-judge as early as this morning, pending his likely extradition back to California." 

More bad news? With Clinton in New Jersey today, this New York Daily News headline will loom: "Hillary campaign honcho among 11 busted in N.J. sting." From the article: "Passaic Mayor Sammy Rivera, 60, allegedly accepted $5,000 at a secret restaurant meet, offering to use his influence to name the dummy company Passaic's official insurance broker. Rivera, a former cop with a checkered history, was also a featured member of Clinton's long list of campaign endorsements. He was on Clinton's Mayor's Council and her National Hispanic Leadership Council."

EDWARDS: Here are some more excerpts of Edwards' counterterrorism speech in New York today: "There is now only one key question we must ask ourselves: are we any closer to getting rid of terrorism than we were six years ago? And the terrible answer is no, we're further away. Today, terrorism is worse in Iraq, and it's worse around the world. So what does all this mean? It means the results are in on George Bush's so-called 'global war on terror' and it's not just a failure, it's a double-edged failure."

The Washington Post also notes that Edwards is expected to say something similar to what Obama did when the Illinois senator gave his counterterrorism speech. "In today's speech, Edwards is expected to [say], 'if the Pakistani government fails to take care of the problem of al-Qaeda, we will.'"

The Des Moines Register covers Edwards picking up the endorsement of the 200,000-member Transportation Workers Union yesterday.

Edwards has already picked up an endorsement from the Carpenters, but he will officially get the endorsement on Saturday at a rally in Nashua, NH.

OBAMA: While Obama's national poll numbers may still be lagging behind Clinton's, he can at least boast a lead on the internet. "Obama's Web site had the most unique visitors in July, with 717,000, according to Nielsen/NetRatings. Fellow Democrats Sen. Hillary Clinton had 437,000 unique visits, followed by 348,000 for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards." 

Obama's campaign will also push aggressively for Colorado's 70 delegates, organizing for the Caucus there before they some larger states holding their primaries on February 5th.

GIULIANI: Giuliani picked up the endorsement of former Illinois Gov. Jim Thompson (R) Thursday. The Daily Herald suggests the endorsement will help Giuliani increase his campaign cash in Illinois, where he has raised less than Romney and McCain.

HUCKABEE: Today, the chattering class's favorite dark horse GOP candidate, Mike Huckabee, does his turn walking a day in the shoes of an SEIU worker. What's remarkable about this event? All of the Democrats have done it, but Huckabee's the only Republican to do so. In fact, to date, Huckabee's the only Republican to nab a union endorsement (the machinists endorsed him in the GOP primary, while endorsing Clinton in the Dem primary). Is there any other self-described conservative candidate doing more to show crossover appeal than Huckabee? Imagine if Huckabee is on the national ticket and SEIU's Andy Stern has nothing but nice things to say about him?

MCCAIN: The New Hampshire Union Leader called McCain the "clear and convincing winner" of Wednesday's debate and also says "reports of his political death are premature. And he is breathing new life into his campaign in the only place such a feat is possible: in New Hampshire."

ROMNEY: More debate reaction from the Concord Monitor's Dorgan, who talked to Mark Riss about his pointed question for Mitt Romney on Iraq. He "said that it felt good to get his grievance off his chest and that he's accepted Romney's apology. But Riss, who said he's an undecided independent who leans Republican, said he wasn't satisfied with the answer." Riss: "What I was looking for from him was a response as to how he would end the conflict in Iraq, and he did not provide that to me. In fact, he did not even come close." Also, NH GOP chair Fergus Cullen said Giuliani "wasn't knocked off his game." More Cullen: ""I think governor Huckabee continued to distinguish himself. He's clearly the best wit in the crowd."

The New York Times: "Mitt Romney is set to propose eliminating taxes on most investment earnings for families that make under $200,000 a year, the first in what his campaign says will be a series of announcements throughout the fall on the specifics of his tax policy… Mr. Romney's advisers have estimated that his plan will benefit 95 percent of American families, costing the federal government about $32 billion a year." The campaign says to make up for that loss of revenue, it proposes to veto "any budget that does not cap discretionary nonmilitary spending at the rate of inflation minus one percentage point, as well as find savings in Medicare and Medicaid. 

TANCREDO: "I believe we are in a clash of civilizations," said Tancredo in New Hampshire, per the New Hampshire Union Leader. He also called the United Nations "an anti-America debating society."

The group of Democrats trying to beat back the GOP attempt to pass a ballot initiative to split up California's 55 electoral votes by congressional district is up with two new radio ads. From one of the ads: "Now, after California's been shortchanged for years, special interests have cooked up a new scheme to reduce our influence even further -- trying to pass an initiative carving up California's electoral votes in the presidential election. If it passes, experts say we'll be left with less influence than states like New York, Texas, Ohio, Florida, and Illinois."

New York Mayor Bloomberg posted this on his Web site: "It's time for something real… The question should not be about politics, but about leadership. Not who is the best candidate, but who will be the best President." He also announced he has MySpace and Facebook pages. Even though this has "pumped new life into speculation over Bloomberg's plans," the New York Daily News writes, this is really about having an influence on the "national debate." "More people will pay attention if the question about his future is an open-ended one, insiders say."

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Recognizing "it all begins in Iowa," Fred Thompson officially began his campaign for president in Des Moines. Thompson told the audience the "preseason is over" and promised to make America a "stronger, more prosperous nation." Like the rest of the candidates, he promised change, saying he is not a career politician. In fact, he promised to be the president "who will blow the whistle on this lack of responsibility" in the current government. "We still get our basic rights from God and not from government," he said.
 
Thompson began, talking of terrorism. "We are living in an era now of the suitcase bomb," he said. "We are living in an era now of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, where a small amount of the wrong kind of material getting in the wrong hands can do destruction that we never though possible. They are more likely than ever to fall in the hands of our worst enemy. Radical Islam has declared war on us."
 
On Iraq, Thompson has previously said it is important to stay in the country until the job is done. Today, he parsed that a bit, drawing a distinction between Iraq and the global war on terrorism. "Iraq is a part of that conflict, but Iraq is not that conflict," Thompson said. "That conflict will be with us unfortunately long after Iraq is in our rear view mirror. And the whole world watches and waits as the determination of the American people is tested."
 
Thompson did not talk about healthcare or energy policy in his speech, but he did call for stronger immigration laws. "A country that cannot enforce her own borders will not remain a sovereign nation," Thompson said to loud applause. He also stressed the importance of fiscal responsibility, stating Congress is spending the entire social security surplus.

His 23-minute speech followed a video introduction, which detailed his biography. But facing a stigma of laziness (see Newsweek's "Lazy like a fox" cover) did he give opposition researchers fodder with this line? "I thought about just running that video again instead of making a speech, to tell you the truth."

From NBC's Andrew Merten
Speaking to reporters in St. Paul, Minn., this afternoon, Giuliani made a point to appear unfazed by Fred Thompson's official entrance into the GOP nomination run. "The race hasn't changed at all -- it's exactly the same campaign that it was a week ago," he said, adding, "I don't run against any other Republican; I run against Democrats." He went on to tout his organization as the "most issues-oriented campaign of any side," calling on his "Twelve Commitments" as an example.
 
Rudy also alleged that he is the most competitive general election candidate in the Republican field, citing national polls that show him competing against Clinton or Obama. "I'm the only Republican candidate that has a chance at winning the states that were previously Democratic states," he said, continuing: "If I'm nominated here in Minnesota next year, I'll walk out of here being able to campaign in virtually 50 states.  If somebody else is nominated, they'll walk out of here being able to campaign in 20 or 25 states."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
...and he doesn't mince his words. On the very day Thompson begins his official announcement tour, former spokesman Jim Mills, who left the campaign earlier in the week, joked about his short-lived experience there: "About the only people who haven't worked in the Thompson press shop this summer are Larry Craig and that woman astronaut who wore those diapers cross country."

More from Mills, who previously was FOX's chief congressional producer. "I am currently checking in with my Catholic friends to see if they can recommend any local priests who still perform exorcisms." Our perspective here is that Mills -- through the humor -- is trying to show that he's bloodied but not bowed after leaving the campaign.

NBC News also has learned that Thompson communications adviser Mark Corallo has left the campaign.

From NBC's Ken Strickland and Mike Viqueira
It's clear now that Democratic leaders on both sides of the Capitol are moving towards dropping their insistence on a end date deadline for completing troop withdrawal from Iraq.

Senate leaders are likely to move a defense measure on the week of the 17th that essentially calls for a withdrawal to begin later this year, but drops language that would require completion by April 30, 2008. "We are not backing off anything," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told reporters today, while adding in the next breath that "we need 60 votes" -- a threshold that they have been repeatedly unable to meet this year on war votes. "There is nothing off the table on Iraq," he said.

Meanwhile, Speaker Pelosi is signaling that she, too, will allow votes on a similar measure in the House by the end of the month, as well as a measure that would require the Bush Administration to come forward with a redeployment plan within 60 days, according to a House leadership source.

It wasn't supposed to work out this way. Throughout the spring Democrats had talked of how they were hammering away at Republican resistance on deadline legislation, speaking of the "arc" that votes had progressively taken towards the Democratic position. September was to be a watershed moment for congressional action on the war, with the expectation that Republicans were going to start bucking the White House. The strategy was to change Republican votes, not to change the underlying legislation.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Yesterday, we noted that Clinton and Obama were up with new TV ads touting their ability to be "change" candidates. Now Bill Richardson has gotten into the act with a new ad in Iowa that begins: "George Bush has made a mess of almost everything. Now we need experience and change. Bill Richardson offers both."

Sound familiar? Clinton's new TV ad goes, "If we have the conviction, she has the experience. If we're ready for change, she's ready to lead." Also, over the Labor Day weekend, she said, "I know some people think you have to choose between change and experience. Well, with me, you don't have to choose."

Of course, the first person who actually used that last line was ... Richardson. At last month's Democratic debate in Iowa, Richardson said, "You know, I think that Senator Obama does represent change. Senator Clinton has experience. Change and experience. With me you get both."

Is the new ad a dig at Clinton stealing Richardson's line? "This is an ad that's been in the production works for a while," Richardson spokesman Tom Reynolds tells First Read. "The timing is just serendipity." More from Reynolds: "The goal of the ad is that Gov. Richardson is the only one who brings both change and experience."

From NBC's Ken Strickland and Mark Murray
The AP reports today, "Sen. Larry Craig has all but dropped any notion of trying to complete his term, and is focused on helping Idaho send a new senator to Washington within a few weeks, his top spokesman said Thursday."

VIDEO:  NBC's Mike Viqueira reports on Sen. Craig's latest decision.

Craig spokesman Dan Whiting said in a statement that this isn't new. "This is nothing new -- all along we have said that he expects to resign on September 30th and he and the staff are working towards that end to ensure the transition is as smooth as possible for Idaho. Tuesday night I stated that he simply left a very, very small door slightly ajar."

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
This is interesting: Rush Limbaugh is bothered by Thompson doing Leno for his announcement.

VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on Fred Thompson's official announcement.

Limbaugh said yesterday, "... I'm not crazy about presidential candidates announcing their candidacy on these late-night shows, Leno or Letterman.  I know why they're doing it... The one thing about it that bothers me -- and I'm not rooted in fuddy-duddiness here, although it may sound like it to some of you but -- is I think the office of the presidency has a certain stature, and I don't like to see it linked or tied to pop culture.  Pop culture is by definition one of the low common denominators of our society."

More: "You know damn well that presidents don't go on The Tonight Show. So why should they as candidates? When you link the stature of that office to the pop culture, I don't think the damage is instantaneous, but it's just a slow erosion of the stature of the office.  It's just my instinct here. It could be anybody. This is not directed at Fred Thompson."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Bill (Lacy) and Fred's Excellent Adventure: More than 90 days have passed since Fred Thompson established his "testing the waters" committee. And in those three months, nothing seemed to go right for the budding campaign. Critics panned Thompson's speeches; key staffers departed; the newspapers uncovered that he once lobbied for a pro-choice group (and the campaign flopped on the initial response to those stories); wife Jeri became a household name (and not necessarily in a good way); and everyone wondered out loud: "When is he going to in?" Well, he answered that last night on Leno, when he officially declared his candidacy. And his official announcement tour -- which begins today in Iowa and also includes a new campaign video -- allows him to start over and earn some positive press. It's his time to shine, and if there was ever an opening for someone to virtually come out of nowhere and win the GOP nod, this is it. But those rough three months have left him with little margin for error here on out.

*** Last night's winners: There were three clear winners last night: Giuliani, Huckabee, and Thompson. Yes, Thompson -- he came out a winner within the first five minutes, thanks to the moderator's opening question about the candidate-to-be's decision to go on Leno instead of showing up for this debate. The fact that every candidate (including Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee, and even McCain) took potshots reinforced the idea that the entire GOP field views him as a major candidate. In fact, most of the debate leads this morning included the Thompson shots. The Thompson folks could not have asked for a better setup. As for the winners who actually participated, Giuliani's performance was particularly strong -- perhaps his best debate to date. He's clearly comfortable being the front-runner; he absorbs the attacks from opponents without looking as if that opponent matters. His strongest answers were in defense of NOT signing the no-tax pledge and on guns, but his roughest moment was his shaky answer to the family-values questioner. Meanwhile, Huckabee doing well at a debate is about as common as the sun rising in the east. In particular, the exchange with Ron Paul where Huckabee got to defend McCain, defend the surge, and also call Iraq a mistake was, we dare say, a mix of Reagan and Clinton.

*** The Loser? From our perspective, it was Romney. He certainly didn't have any friends among the debate questioners and the diner patrons, and that kept him on the defensive all night. Romney's got to figure out how to turn all these attacks into a positive; Wednesday night was not a great night for the candidate who's ahead (per the polls) in the early states. As for the rest, McCain won Luntz's focus group and was praised in several post-debate analyses. But to us, his performance was not dominating, though his lecturing of Romney about the surge was a TV scene-stealer. At times, he was funny and loose; at other times, he was overly serious and a bit tight. Brownback seems less and less relevant (why did he stay in after his poor Ames Straw poll showing?); Tancredo seemed almost a non-factor; Hunter is very good at playing the Patriot card (but what part of the party does he represent that the front-runners don't?); Paul was as angry as he's been -- at one point, we wondered why he just didn't scream, "Hey kids, GET OFF MY LAWN!"

*** Snake I's? Today, Biden finds himself in Iraq, just days after he declared that he needs to finish second or third in Iowa. In fact, it's all about the "I"s with Biden: Iraq and Iowa. No one seems to come across more credibly on Iraq than Biden does, but he can't seem to get traction. Perhaps it's that he doesn't seem "new," or that what folks do know of him isn't presidential. He's certainly done nothing to hurt his chances of becoming a key cog in a future Dem administration, but he can't seem to gain traction among the Democratic elite: from trial lawyers to labor (two constituencies that would have been with him under other circumstances). All in all, Biden is a candidate who is performing well at the big events (i.e. debates, key TV interviews), but isn't breaking through in the early states. No wonder he decided to go Iowa or bust.

*** On The Trail: The day after the GOP debate, Giuliani travels to Minnesota and Illinois; Huckabee campaigns in New Hampshire and appears on FOX and Friends in the morning; McCain is in DC then raises money in California; Romney fundraises in New York; and Tancredo holds a town hall meeting in Merrimack, NH. On the Democratic side, Dodd holds a conference call with reporters to discuss his legislation to reform sub-prime lending practices; Edwards picks up the Transport Workers Union's endorsement in New York; and Obama holds a town hall in Las Vegas before heading to San Francisco.

Countdown to LA GOV election: 44 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 61 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 72 days
Countdown to Iowa: 130 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 135 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 152 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 425 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 502 days