From NBC's Andy Merten

Tancredo came out pretty strong against yesterday's passing of the Biden-Brownback bill in the Senate, which suggests a three-region partition of Iraq, by Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds.  He said Congress can chose to authorize war, fund a war, or not fund a war, but added, "You cannot micromanage it from the Congress of the United States."  It's too bad the format of this forum doesn't really allow for rebuttals between candidates -- it'd be interesting  to see Brownback's response to this.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The questions have ranged so far from illegal immigration, now Iraq, health care. The forum is slow, but we knew that coming in. Same old stuff, but it says something at least that these candidates have showed up, but we've noted that already.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Note Hunter has now three time mentioned the "barrio." What is his point with this?

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro

It's not surprising, since Huckabee has clearly proved his ability on the stage, that he has the most cogent, competent and most unifying answers.

He had a great line on crimes committed either because someone was high or drunk or wanted to get high or drunk.

From NBC's Andy Merten
Last week, a bill to grant Washington, DC a voting seat in the House of Representatives failed cloture in the Senate, so it's not a surprise that this topic came up tonight.  Tancredo has said that he would not grant a seat to the District because it's not a state -- instead, it should be ceded back to Maryland and Virgina.  Hunter seemed to assert that DC residents should be given less stringent gun-owning laws before a vote.  Keyes suggested those wanting a vote should just pick up and move out of the city.

Huckabee has broken from the crowd, saying, "I think the people of DC should have the right to vote; I don't care how they vote, they should be allowed to vote."  Brownback, on the other hand, supports a constitutional amendment:  "There's a way to do it; there's a way not to do it."

Also, all answered that they do support voter photo identification laws.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Alan Keyes talked about blacks being the ones most affected by illegal immigrants taking jobs. It's interesting to hear him talk about this, because in some neighborhoods there is a real tension that exists. In East Harlem, for example, the nonprofit group Tepayac has complained that Mexicans are treated "like ATMs." Many are illegal and they say they are robbed by blacks and scared to tell the police for fear of being deported. Some blacks say they are stealing jobs blacks could have. In other cities -- Los Angeles and Houston, for example -- so-called black-brown tensions have manifested in violence. I can't remember hearing someone, especially not a presidential candidate, seem to discuss this with a tone of division and anger as Keyes has.

From NBC's Andy Merten
We noticed earlier today that during July's NAACP forum in Detroit, where Tancredo was the GOP's only participant, the organizers decided to put up extra podiums for the no-shows.  It made for a great picture, seeing Tancredo stand in the middle of a long line of empty spots.  While it's not quite as dramatic tonight, this forum is televised -- many more viewers will see those wide shots of a sparsely-populated stage.

From NBC's Andy Merten
Alan Keyes was the first participant to get cut off by the moderator.  Smiley seemed to physically ushered the woman who asked the question away from the podium so he could get to the microphone to tell Keyes his time was up. 

Maybe we'll start a count of the number of times Keyes is cut off, tonight.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Political Unit's Andy Merten and I are here liveblogging the forum for your enjoyment. It was a long drive and then walk to get on campus, but we got here before the debate went off. The spin room and press filing center is fairly empty but for a few journalists and Larry Wilmore and John Oliver from The Daily Show. Clearly the laugh lines and news hook is the same: the candidates who didn't show up.

But Tavis Smiley wasn't laughing -- or smiling for that matter -- in his introduction. He -- as well as Tom Joyner who spoke earlier -- railed against the candidates that didn't show: McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Thompson.

Smiley said that the four candidates had suggested publicly that "this audience" would be "hostile" to Republicans.

"Since we're on PBS...I can't tell you what I really think of those comments."

He then thanked Ken Mehlman and Newt Gingrich who are in attendance. Gingrich complained prior to the forum that the candidates who were skipping the forum were making a mistake.

The candidates were no kinder to those who skipped out (except, ugh, Alan Keyes).

HUCKABEE: "I'm embarrassed for our party and embarrassed for those who did not come....We've come a long way, but we have a long way to go....I'm honored to be here." He added, he hopes hey can take up the time of those not in attendance and "make up their ground." 

BROWNBACK: "I apologize for those not here." Called it a "disgrace." Railed against those not in attendance.

KEYES: "Unfair to assume" that those have not showed up sends a negative message to the black community.

From NBC's Abby Livingston
The warrior in John McCain emerged today in New York City, as he took seemingly subtle swings and not-so-subtle swings at friends and foe alike.

Taking aim at the Democrats, when he presented a sort of domino retreat theory among those who advocate a withdrawal from Iraq when he said, "How long will it take before the same advocates of surrender in Iraq begin demanding an end to our mission in Afghanistan and a quote surge in diplomacy aimed at a negotiating stalemate with the Taliban?"

Alluding to Romney he said, "Tough talk or managerial successes in the private sector aren't adequate assurances that their authors have the experience or qualities necessary for such a singular responsibility."

In favor of his campaign finance reform legislation, he said, "I've never believed that money was speech. I believe that money is property."

And he even took jabs at his own institutions. About Congress, he said  "It should disturb us when the Congress approval rating is down to 11%. You get down that low, you get down to blood relatives and paid staffers."

When asked about the lacking candidate attendance at tonight's GOP debate and his party's dearth of minority outreach as a whole, he said, "I think we have to do more. I think that we have to remind ourselves as well as our constituents that we're the party of Abraham Lincoln. So I do think we have work to do."

From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
John Edwards told CNN before the MTV dialogue that he will accept public financing, and Kate Bedingfield, Edwards' New Hampshire press secretary, confirmed the report.

"It's sort of about walking the walk," she said. "You should not be able to buy your way into the White House."

She claims the decision is not a reflection of this quarter's fundraising success or failure and that the campaign is still on track with its $40 million, four-state strategy over four quarters.

"The influence of money is rampant in politics to the point that it dominates the race," Bedingfield said. "The decision is about principle."

In a release, Edwards also called on Clinton to do the same.

From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger

Giuliani reiterated that he would not raise taxes as president today, after the Club For Growth said they were concerned about his tax policy. The organization said in an open letter Wednesday that they were concerned about comments Giuliani made in an Associated Press article, which said Giuliani would not rule out raising Social Security taxes to deal with the program's insolvency.
 
Giuliani surrogate and one-time flat-tax presidential candidate Steve Forbes countered today, saying that in the interview Giuliani made clear he opposes all tax hikes when asked specifically about Social Security.
 
"Based on the mayor's record as a tax cutter and fiscal conservative -- unparalleled in the Republican presidential field -- we should not find this position unusual," Forbes said in a letter to Club for Growth President Pat Toomey. "He opposed tax increases and believes they are not the solution. There are many ways to say it, but it's clear Rudy ruled out tax increases."
 
Giuliani also told reporters today that he said in the AP interview at least twice that he would not raise taxes as president.

From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
As Giuliani raised funds in California today, he was being questioned about his ties to a group pushing a proportional distribution of the state's 55 electoral votes. Take Initiative America is looking to change California's electoral college allotment, and its leader, Charles "Chep" Hurth III, has donated $2,000 to the Giuliani campaign, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

Hurth, a Missouri attorney, has also been tied to efforts to garner Republican support in 2004 for adding Ralph Nader to the presidential ballot in key states. Hurth's law firm partners have also donated to the Giuliani campaign.

The Democratic National Committee Thursday said Giuliani should explain his ties to "a shadowy front group financing the effort to rig the Electoral College in California."
 
"Rudy Giuliani should come clean and explain his ties to this blatant Republican power grab," said Karen Finney, the DNC's communications director Karen Finney. "Voters deserve to know if Rudy Giuliani is involved in this dirty trick to steal the White House for the Republicans. Does Rudy support this Republican power grab? Is it part of his campaign plan?"
 
Giuliani campaign spokesman Jarrod Agen told the Chronicle, "We are absolutely not involved in that effort. We'll play by whatever the rules that Californians decide are in their best interest."

From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Domenico Montanaro
This morning, the Quad City Times reported that Michelle Obama said last night that "it's over" if her husband does not win in Iowa.

AUDIO: Michelle Obama tells a crowd about the important of Iowa to her husband's presidential campaign (Note: Audio can be difficult to understand.).

But Michelle Obama did not, in fact, say "it's over." What she did tell supporters (and we have it recorded) is, "Iowa will make the difference. If Barack doesn't win Iowa, then it's just a dream. If we win Iowa, then we can move to the world as it should be. And we need your help in making that happen. If we win Iowa, then we can move to the world as it should be. And we need your help in making that happen."

The gist is the same -- Michelle Obama clearly implied that a poor showing in the state means the end of the road for Obama. And saying, "win" instead of the usual moderate-expectation-setting "do well," is significant. But the ultimatum of "it's over" was not uttered.
 
The Quad City Times corrected its reporting this afternoon.

The campaign says that Mrs. Obama was merely emphasizing, as other candidates and strategists have, how important a win in Iowa is for momentum in the race.

"She was just out there firing up the troops just like all the other campaigns do," campaign spokesman Bill Burton said. "We're building up in all the Feb. 5th states and feel good about where we are."

Here's the paragraph before the quote for context on "the dream":

"I want you to close your eyes and imagine the day that Barack Obama is inaugurated President of the United States, standing in front of the Capitol with his hand on the Bible taking the oath of office to be the leader of the most powerful office in the world.  And think about what that image, right then and there alone, is going to say to millions of children around this country ... There is no one else in this race, and you know it in your heart, who is going to send that kind of message."

From NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Christina Jamison

Bill Clinton was asked at a Global Initiative news conference about Hillary Clinton's refusal in last night's debate to commit to disclosure of his library and foundation contributors. He responded extensively saying, in part, "She couldn't answer that question last night because we don't believe in one set of rules for us and another set for everybody else."

He then pointed out that Hillary is sponsoring a bill to require disclosures in the future and said, "If she becomes president I will treat it as if we are covered by that and i will disclose all the donors to our library and activities."

Why didn't she answer that last night?

He bristled noticeably: "She just thinks I'm entitled to speak for myself just like I think she is entitled to speak for herself. And she has got no business being asked to speak for me in a presidential debate just like I don't try to speak for her unless i know what her position is."

"Now for the people that have already given me money I don't think I should disclose it unless there is some conflict of which I am aware and there is not. Because a lot of people gave me money with the understanding that they could give anonymously and if they gave publically then they would be the target of every other politician in America to hit on them for the rest of their lives. And some of them are Republicans, they may not want anybody to know (laughter) it might ruin their reputaiton in their own party."

He went on to say, "I want to open my presidential records more rapidly than the law requires, and the current administration has slowed down the opening of my own records.... I do think that I will have extra responsiblity for transparency should the American people elect hillary president."

"I support the law she cosponsored and I support the law that says that all of us after the effective date of the act should make similiar disclosures."

During a scrum afterward he briefly responded about her "torture" answer -- praising the way she handled it.

NOTE: From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
In the Sept. 22 edition of the Economist, Clinton acknowledges "legitimate questions" over disclosing donors, particularly if Hillary becomes president:

"Mr Clinton insists he will continue his philanthropic work even if he becomes First Spouse-though some things would have to change. In particular, he would have to be more transparent. 'Now we don't have to publish all of our donors for example, and if Hillary became president, I think there would be all these questions about whether people would try to win favour with her by giving money to me,' he says. 'You know it wouldn't work, and I don't think they would. Still, there are legitimate questions.' But given the power of Mr Clinton's personal brand, that transparency may be a price worth paying."

From NBC's Mike Memoli
McCain advisers said on a conference call this morning that his New Hampshire ad buy is meant to build on what they feel has been a good month for the campaign, as evidenced by the latest poll showing him closing in on Romney and Giuliani.

"From our perspective we sensed this progress was occurring and wanted to capitalize on that, and continue to wage an aggressive and robust campaign by putting these ads up," said campaign manager Rick Davis.

Both new TV ads include footage of a wounded McCain being interviewed in a Hanoi prison. McCain media strategist Mark McKinnon said that the campaign wanted to draw more attention to McCain's "rich and compelling life story." "We made a lot of assumptions about the fact that voters know the story when in fact they really don't," McKinnon said.

In "One Man," a narrator says McCain "sacrificed for his country," and also says he "had the courage to call for change" in the face of a "flawed" Iraq strategy. Both ads also show footage of McCain with Ronald Reagan. But the camp says it isn't making a push just to Republican voters. And in fact, the other ad -- called "Live Free" -- notes Americans have "lost trust in government" in light of Katrina and Congressional scandals. "They're looking for leadership," the ad continues. "New Hampshire, you know who he is."

The camp wouldn't disclose the exact details of the buy, but said it is a "full blown buy." And, the advisers added, the spending will be seen in the upcoming FEC report, though they wouldn't hint where the senator would stand.

McCain will make another swing through the Granite State this Saturday and Sunday. He was last here with the "No Surrender Tour" two weeks ago.

*** UPDATE *** From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The campaign calls this "a significant statewide ad buy" running on radio and TV on WMUR.

Here are the full transcripts:

Script for "One Man" (60 seconds TV)
INTERVIEWER: How old are you?
JOHN MCCAIN: Thirty-one
INTERVIEWER: What is your rank in the Army?
JOHN MCCAIN: Lt. Commander in the Navy ... Hit by either missile or anti-aircraft fire, I'm not sure which. I ejected and broke my leg and both arms.
INTERVIEWER: And your official number?
JOHN MCCAIN: 624787
ANNOUNCER: One man sacrificed for his country
One man opposed a flawed strategy in Iraq
One man had the courage to call for change
One man didn't play politics with the truth
One man stands up to the special interests
JOHN MCCAIN: Stand up. We're Americans, we're Americans and we'll never surrender. They will.
ANNOUNCER: One man does what's right, not what's easy
John McCain
JOHN MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.
 
Script for "Live Free" (:30-TV)
ANNOUNCER: America at risk
Americans lost trust in their government
They're looking for leadership
A leader with the judgment and experience to keep us safe
The courage to change Washington
Fix our toughest problems and restore our trust
The character to put America's interests before his own
New Hampshire, you know who he is:
JOHN MCCAIN: Live free or die!
ANNOUNCER: John McCain
JOHN MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.
 
Script for "Courage" (60 seconds RADIO)
ANNOUNCER: John McCain, prisoner of war, Hanoi, 1967:
INTERVIEWER: How old are you?
JOHN MCCAIN: Thirty-one
INTERVIEWER: What is your rank in the Army?
JOHN MCCAIN: Lt. Commander in the Navy ... Hit by either missile or anti-aircraft fire, I'm not sure which. I ejected and broke my leg and both arms.
INTERVIEWER: And your official number?
JOHN MCCAIN: 624787
ANNOUNCER: One man believes Americans want a leader, not a follower
"No other candidate has the guts to do the same," wrote the Union Leader
One man has the courage to stand up to the special interests
And the judgment and experience to be commander in chief
New Hampshire, you know who he is:
JOHN MCCAIN: Live free or die!
ANNOUNCER: John McCain
JOHN MCCAIN: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.

From NBC's Joel Seidman
Attorneys in the Office of General Counsel of the House of Representatives filed a motion Wednesday in federal court to quash subpoenas served to 12 senior House members by defense attorneys representing Brent Wilkes, the former defense contractor charged with bribing now imprisoned ex-Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham.

House lawyers argue that the information and testimony sought by Wilkes' attorney Mark Geragos from the members is protected by the Speech or Debate Clause of the U.S. Constitution. The Speech or Debate clause protects Member of Congress "not only from the consequence of litigation's results but also from the burden of defending themselves," so long as legislators are ''acting in the sphere of legitimate legislative activity.''

Wilkes' trial is scheduled to begin next week in federal court in San Diego. He has been charged with giving Cunningham a $700,000 bribe in exchange for government contracts. Wilkes and a former top CIA official, Kyle "Dusty" Foggo, who has also been charged in the Cunningham scandal, and resigned from the CIA, have pleaded not guilty. The pair face 30 wide-ranging counts of bribery, fraud, conspiracy and money laundering.

Cunningham, who served eight-terms in Congress, is now serving eight years and four months in federal prison after pleading guilty in 2005 to accepting $2.4 million in cash, fancy cars and other gifts from Wilkes and another contractor Mitchell Wade in exchange for securing federal contracts. Wade pleaded guilty to bribery charges in federal court in Washington and is cooperating in the continuing Justice Department investigation.

The members who received the subpoenas include former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, House Republican Whip Roy Blunt, John Murtha, chairman of the Subcommittee on Defense of the Appropriations Committee, and Silvestre Reyes, chairman of the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence.

In addition to the 12 House members who received subpoenas, four Senators got them as well. According to the court filing, Sens. Larry Craig, Daniel Inouye, Carl Levin and Jay Rockefeller as well as White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Deputy Secretary of Defense Gordon England received subpoenas to testify at trial.

The House attorneys contend that the 12 subpoenas seek information that "does not appear relevant." And that "Members cannot be compelled to testify on days when the House is in session."
 
Geragos has declined to reveal in detail what he intends to ask the members at trial. He stated, in a Sept. 11 letter to the House counsel, that doing so "will necessarily reveal the defense's trial strategy and tactics." Geragos said that disclosure would unfairly prejudice the defense and undermine the right to a fair trial. Wilkes attorney spoke by telephone to the House attorneys on September 21. They say, according to the filing that, "he advised us that he was interested in testimony concerning the congressional appropriations process and how it works."

Geragos has not responded to several attempts by NBC News to contact him.

The House lawyers also write in the 81-page court filing, that because neither Wilkes nor his attorney have ever contacted the 12 members to ascertain they had any information that is relevant, non-privileged and admissible at trial, "it seems likely that the subpoenas were issued for some reason other than securing testimony or documentary evidence at trial."

The subpoenas also seek committee documents from Murtha and Reyes. Specifically Wilkes attorney wants correspondence from the Defense Appropriations subcommittee and the Intelligence Committee between Members and staffs of the committees and former Rep. Cunningham, Wade, and Wilkes "regarding any attempt to benefit projects or companies owned by or related to Wilkes or Wade.

The list of members who received subpoenas includes: former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.); House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.); Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.), former chairman of the Appropriations Committee; Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.), former chairman of the Armed Services Committee; Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-Mich.), former Intelligence Committee chairman; Intelligence Committee Chairman Silvestre Reyes (D-Texas); Rep. Jack Murtha (D-Pa.), chairman of the Defense subcommittee of the Appropriations Committee; Rep. Norm Dicks (D-Wash.); Rep. John Doolittle (R-Calif.); Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.); Joe Knollenberg (R-Mich.); and Rep. Jerry Weller (R-Ill.).

From NBC/National Journal's Tricia Miller
HANOVER, N.H. -- In a morning question-and-answer session with about 400 sixth- through eighth-graders at a Hanover middle school, Edwards responded to questions on his plans for the presidency.

On a question about potential running mates, he said he had a flexible list, but "no intention of telling you who they are." He said he looks for people who share his vision on global warming, health care, Iraq and poverty.

He told one young questioner, who asked what one thing he would change to reform society, that he would pick the health-care system. He also answered questions on education, ethanol and Iraq. His children, Jack and Emma Claire, joined him on the gym floor in the middle of a circle of seated children during the last answer. Staffers from the campaign also answered questions about their jobs while the gym full of students waited for the senator's arrival.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro

Republicans focused on issues of security and force in their released statements on last night's Democratic debate. Romney was first out with a statement, criticizing Dems on their stances on Iraq naming Clinton, Obama and Edwards. Fred Thompson followed shortly after criticizing Dems on the Israel-Iran question, saying he was "appalled that none of the leading Democrats would stand up for Israel's right to defend itself against Iran."

We will update as we hear of more of these. ***UPDATE*** Romney hits Dems on talking to kids about same-sex marriage.

[/excerpt]

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Republicans focused on issues of security and force in their released statements on last night's Democratic debate. Romney was first out with a statement, criticizing Dems on their stances on Iraq naming Clinton, Obama and Edwards. Fred Thompson followed shortly after criticizing Dems on the Israel-Iran question, saying he was "appalled that none of the leading Democrats would stand up for Israel's right to defend itself against Iran."

We will update as we hear of more of these.

ROMNEY: "While the men and women of our military are serving and sacrificing for their country in Iraq, the leading Democratic presidential candidates have consistently called for a retreat.  Yet, when asked last night if they could outline a path forward in Iraq under their leadership, Senators Clinton, Obama and Edwards fell silent. Clearly, the Democrats place a higher premium on cheap and shallow political attacks that appeal to the fringe element of their party than they do on outlining a plan. Instead of troop withdrawals, we need to be talking about how we achieve victory in Iraq. Changing Washington requires Democrats who are willing to put aside the partisanship and work toward solutions on our most pressing challenges."

*** UPDATE *** More Romney, on talking to kids about same-sex marriage: "Last night's debate was just the latest example of how out of touch the Democratic presidential candidates are with the American people. Not one candidate was uncomfortable with young children learning about same-sex marriage in the second grade. This is a subject that should be left to parents, not public school teachers. We need to strengthen our families by passing a federal marriage amendment and also insisting on marriage before having children.  Change in Washington requires Democrats with the courage to stand-up to their ultra liberal base and do what's right for our children."

THOMPSON: "During last night's debate in New Hampshire, I was appalled that none of the leading Democrats would stand up for Israel's right to defend itself against Iran -- a country intent on acquiring nuclear weapons and whose leader has vowed to wipe Israel off the map. A Thompson Administration would stand by Israel and all of our friends in the region. We would not wait for U.N. permission to support an ally or defend our interests abroad. The U.N. has not shown sufficient resolve toward stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
HANOVER, NH -- So how many folks were confused about which NBC channel was airing the season premiere of the "bionic woman": was it on NBC or MSNBC?  More from last night's debate: Clinton was a bit testy, particularly on the Social Security questions. She also allowed her "laughter" tick to kick in for a few other tough questions. Overall, though, no

one landed a blow on her, and at this point in the game, that's how these debates have to be judged. In a way, she reminded us of one of those Dean Smith teams playing "four corners" or "stall ball" -- by playing it extremely safe. This is what a front-runner does: protects a lead. But if she were being judged on actually answering the questions she was asked, she'd get the lowest marks among those on the stage. To borrow another sports analogy, Clinton punted on the questions regarding Social Security, her war authorization vote (she talked about health care, but not the war vote when Russert brought up both), and the Clinton Library donors. (BTW, how soon before the Clinton library makes the decision that they'll have to do full disclosure on its donors. Won't it be better for Clinton to deal with this in '07 than '08?)
 

*** A Tale Of Two Candidates: Perhaps the most surprising thing last night was Obama's decision to not aggressively go after Clinton. He didn't seem to change his tone or game even as it appears he's stalled both in the national polls and here in New Hampshire. That said, it's still worth pointing out how far he's come since the first debate back in April. But when given the chance to contrast himself with the front-runner, he punted too, except when he criticized her handling of health care in '93. Of the candidates chasing Clinton, Edwards stood out. He seemed to realize he needed to contrast himself with Clinton on just about every answer he gave. It was one of his better performances; he's getting his William Jennings Bryan schtick down pat. But How will he get past Obama (in money, buzz, and polls)? That's the question for him.
 

*** The Rest: As for the second half of the field, Biden -- once again -- performed well. If he had resources, he just might get some traction. Then again, maybe it's just us Beltway types who think he's shooting straighter from the hip than any of the other candidates. Of course, when you've got nothing left in the bank, you got nothing left to lose. At a minimum, he's earned a spot on the veep short list, forget Secretary of State. Dodd seemed a bit better tonight, but he just can't seem to stop from speaking like a senator and that hurts him at these debates. Then there's Richardson. What is there to say? It appears he's getting smaller and smaller at these debates. His

campaign said he was joking when he stated that he received the first immigration question because he's Hispanic, but (to us) the joke fell flat. He's trying too hard on some questions and it shows.  Finally, Gravel may want to save the tape of this debate, it may have been his last.
 
*** Pledge, not just for furniture: What are the unintended consequences of all three leading Democratic candidates not pledging to end the Iraq war 10 years after it began? The war began in 2003 and the three leading Dems would not pledge to have all combat troops out by 2013... Ten years.
 

*** Ouch: While Edwards may have been basking in the glow of solid reviews from his debate performance last night, the campaign must feel like it was punched in the stomach when it clicked over to today's Des Moines Register. The paper -- similar to what the Columbia State did a few weeks back -- reports on its front page the 100+ Iowa foreclosures by sub-prime mortgage lenders owned by the hedge fund Edwards had worked for last year, Fortress. BTW, did Edwards lose his temper on a bit at last night's debate on this question because he knew this Des Moines Register story was coming this morning? Talk about a precision oppo-strike.
 
***

Skipping Smiley: For a Republican Party that has been trying to make inroads with African-American voters, it probably doesn't help that its top four candidates (Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and Thompson) plus Tancredo decided to skip tonight's Tavis Smiley-moderated debate at Morgan State University in Baltimore. It also probably doesn't help when Smiley goes on the airwaves to criticize those candidates. And it certainly doesn't help when Jack Kemp said this to the Washington Post about the no-shows: "What are we going to do -- meet in a country club in the suburbs one day?" Or when Newt Gingrich told the paper: "It's just fundamentally wrong. Any of them who give you that scheduling-conflict answer are disingenuous. That's baloney." Those who are attending -- Brownback, Huckabee, Hunter, Paul, and Alan Keyes (yes, Alan Keyes) -- will take questions on issues like health care, housing, and Katrina relief. Also, there will be this dubious honor for those not attending tonight: unmanned podiums.
 
*** From MySpace To Your Place: Edwards becomes the first presidential candidate to participate in a MySpace/MTV dialogue. Per a release, this hour-long discussion will air on mtvU and will also stream on MTV.com and MySpace. It will be moderated by MTV's SuChin Pak and Gideon Yago, as well as WashingtonPost.com's Chris Cillizza.
 
*** On The Trail: In addition to his MySpace/MTV dialogue, Edwards campaigns in New Hampshire; Giuliani, in California, picks up an endorsement from former GOP Gov. Pete Wilson; McCain is in New York, where he gives a speech to the Hudson Institute and raises money; Obama is also in New York, where he holds a rally in Washington Square Park; Richardson stumps in Boston and Philly; Romney meets with voters in Sacramento, CA; and Thompson raises money all day in Tennessee.
 
Countdown to LA GOV election: 23 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 40 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 51 days Countdown to Iowa: 109 days Countdown to SC GOP primary: 114 days Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 131 days Countdown to Election Day 2008: 404 days Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 481 days

Also, while Clinton got an "A" for theatrics, she didn't score well on the specifics front. She better hope there isn't a Yankees-Cubs World Series because her answer was too, dare we say, Clintonian by half. Sure, the answer was in jest but it's one of those that will be used as a punch line for not answering specifics on, say, Social Security, Israel or Iran.
 
Since it was late last night, many folks missed out on how things played out in the spin room. NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli reports...  In the spin room, opposing camps seemed to focus on Hillary Clinton's attempts to avoid specifics on certain questions. Obama New Hampshire co-chair Jim Demers said Obama "answered the questions directly. I thought that was a contrast to some of the others... Senator Clinton refused to answer some of the questions, said that she wasn't going to answer hypotheticals. And Senator Obama was very direct... I think people want to have the questions answered so they know where the candidates stand."
 

Elizabeth Edwards said her husband was "being really direct with respect to the issues," while "some other candidates might have been a little more cautious." "John is as always really direct and I think in the end that's what's going to be attractive to voters in New Hampshire, [and] frankly across the country," she said.
 
And Mike Gravel, who had told us earlier that he'd confront Clinton on her Iran vote today, said her answer "was terrible. Terrible. She set the stage for the most significant second vote in this century." Clinton strategist Mark Penn countered that Clinton was "asserting her strength on the issues, not the opposite." "I think she refused to be trapped into hypotheticals. She was kind of warning, 'I'm not gonna fall into that trap that I think others have fallen into,'" Penn said. New Hampshire House Speaker Terri Norelli, a Clinton endorser, said she respected that Clinton would not give "pat answers to complicated issues." "She looks at complex issues as if they are complex. The way I think a president should," Norelli said.
 
How the debate played... The L.A. Times subhead: "Rivals sling barbs at Clinton during a debate but fail to break out of the pack on issues such as Iraq and healthcare." More: "Although there were some sharp moments on the stage at New Hampshire's Dartmouth College -- particularly over the war in Iraq -- the debate illustrated yet again how closely the candidates are aligned on policy issues, suggesting that the nomination fight will probably come down to who Democratic voters believe is the most electable." 
 
Salon's Scherer has a lot of fun using the "Bionic Woman" as his backdrop.  Concludes Scherer: "She is good. Bionic good." 
 
The Washington's Post lead: "Clinton found herself on the defensive... The two-hour debate features clear differences but few fireworks. Clinton (N.Y.), the front-runner for the nomination, drew steady criticism, but her seven rivals couched their disagreements with respect rather than scorn or sharp words." 
 
Iowa analyst Douglas Burns declares Clinton the big winner, thanks to the late exchange with Russert over Bill Clinton and torture. But he also tips his hat to Edwards and Biden. 
 
But the dean of Iowa political journalism, David Yepsen, believes this was one of Clinton's weaker debate performances and he singles out her ducking of the Social Security solvency question as her worst moment. More Yepsen: "While the evening couldn't have been pleasant for Clinton, it opened a necessary discussion Democrats must have: If they don't probe her weaknesses, the Republicans will. Democrats may well want to nominate her but they first need to see how she defends herself." 
 
From Real Clear Politics' Wilson: "As candidates leave Hanover, the story line remains much the same as it was entering. Clinton's performance, while not exceptional, stood out by virtue of other campaigns' lack of ability to make her stumble. If that is to change, Edwards, Obama and other candidates will need to find a new line of attack that can actually bring her down." 
 
NBC/NJ's Athena Jones reports on the results of one Dartmouth focus group. A group of 16 undecided Dartmouth students, who got together to watch the debate, declared Obama the big loser and said Clinton held her own. The focus group, which was sponsored by the Rockefeller Center for Public Policy, later reconvened to watch the debate together. The students, who are registered to vote in New Hampshire, said Richardson and Biden also scored well. Earlier in the day the group got together to talk about what characteristics they were looking for in a candidate. They mentioned honesty, character, experience, accountability and leadership skills, and discussed the relative importance of things like likeability and attractiveness.
 
They also played what may be best described as a game of free association. When Professor Ronald Shaiko asked them to talk about what words came to mind when they thought about the two major political parties, here's what they said: Democrats: social programs and social issues, bigger government and higher government spending. Republicans: money, corporate money, war, oil, pro-life, Halliburton, religious, defense, guns, the South, morals and white.
 
Meanwhile, the Open-Vote.com online survey of 400-plus Dartmouth students rated Clinton as the debate winner. Clinton led with 34% of the vote, followed by Obama with 26% and John Edwards with 15%. No other candidate was rated the winner by more than that.
 
The New York Times: "The three leading Democratic presidential candidates refused on Wednesday night to promise that they would withdraw all American troops from Iraq by the end of their first term, saying in a televised debate here that they could not predict the future challenges in Iraq. But the candidates displayed deep divisions on a number of issues, including how to deal with Iran's pursuit of a nuclear program."
 
More: "Clinton, who has been leading in most national polls and is increasingly perceived as the candidate to beat in the Democratic primaries, found herself under direct and oblique attack from her opponents over things like her husband's legacy to her handling of health care reform in the 1990s." 
 
USA Today says that Clinton was the center of attention. "Faced with Clinton's wide lead in national and New Hampshire polls, the former first lady's rivals tried to portray her as weak on ending the war in Iraq, too cautious on overhauling Social Security, and unable to achieve reform on her signature issue, health care." 
 
Concord Monitor: "Clinton found herself in the spotlight for much of the debate, both because of criticism from her opponents and due to tough questioning from Russert. Clinton and Russert sparred several times, notably on the issue of Iran." 
 
Politico's Ben Smith seems to catch Clinton in a contradiction on the issue of torture. "Clinton (N.Y.) ended her support for legalized torture at a debate in New Hampshire Wednesday night, splitting with her husband – and with her own recent stance on the charged issue."
 
"In a pair of interviews with the New York Daily News last October, Clinton outlined the same narrow exception that Russert described, and which had also been floated by former President Bill Clinton in an interview last year with National Public Radio.
 
"If we're going to be preparing for the kind of improbable but possible eventuality, then it has to be done within the rule of law," Clinton said at the time, in a telephone interview with this reporter, expanding on comments to the Daily News Editorial Board that there should be "lawful authority" for torture in some cases. She said then that the "ticking time bomb" scenario would be a narrow exception to her opposition to torture.
 
"In the event we were ever confronted with having to interrogate a detainee with knowledge of an imminent threat to millions of Americans, then the decision to depart from standard international practices must be made by the president, and the president must be held accountable," she said.
 
The Daily News also leads with the contradiction on torture. 
 
Wall Street Journal: "Bickering over style but doing little to rise from the pack on major issues such as war, health care, Social Security overhaul and immigration, the candidates submitted to two hours of questioning in an event at Dartmouth College that was notable for its civility and scant fireworks."
 
Boston Globe: "Clinton, appearing at ease amid the assaults on her policies, was cautious in her responses, refusing to commit to pulling all US troops out of Iraq by 2013, and hedging her responses on whether to raise Social Security taxes or support Israel in a hypothetical military attack on Iran." 
 
The Boston Globe's Canellos examines Clinton's performance and sees some potential holes.  "More than in most previous debates, the distance between Clinton's sober approach to foreign policy and the emotions of the Democratic Party seemed at odds."
 
And what about Bill? The AP on Biden pointing out that "there's also a lot of the old stuff that comes back" with another potential Clinton presidency. "It was Biden's remark that laid bare a central quandary about Hillary Clinton's candidacy: whether she can justifiably take credit for her husband's successes while sidestepping the controversies and lingering questions that make some voters wary of another Clinton presidency."

Human Events' Jennifer Rubin has a good expectations table-setter for the GOP primary.  From money to social conservatives to Newt, it's a solid list of questions that need answering. 
 
It looks like the GOP is going to take a press beating today over the fact that the top tier GOP candidates are not appearing at tonight's minority-focused debate. Both the NYT and LAT have stories today. 
 

GINGRICH: The National Review editorializes against Newt Gingrich running. "The Republican party owes Newt Gingrich a big debt. It will benefit should GOP politicians borrow some of the initiatives that result from his latest project. But not if he runs for president."
 

GIULIANI: In an interview with Radio Iowa, the candidate reiterated his pledge that he is competing in Iowa. "We'll be in Iowa quite a bit. We've been to Iowa nine times this year, including three (days) in August. This month has been devoted, quite frankly, to raising money because we have to report at the end of the week and we want to raise as much money as we possibly can." 
 
More: "We've got 11 full-time staff in the state. We have a headquarters in Clive. We have a campaign office in Iowa City," Giuliani says. "Thirty-nine of our house parties are going to be done in Iowa tonight.". 
 
GIULIANI: So will Giuliani not lead the GOP field in fundraising? A lot of folks are starting to wonder now that the campaign has parted ways with his finance chief. 
 
NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger reports Yogi Berra stole the show at Rudy Giuliani's first house party Web cast Wednesday evening. "We want an Italian president," the Yankee legend said in introducing Giuliani to what the campaign said was 1,000 house parties in all 50 states.
 
Giuliani, speaking from a house party in New Jersey, reiterated his campaign's focus on being offensive against terrorism and shrinking the size of government. His first question came from another famous voice, comedian Dennis Miller, who suggested the best way to end the threat from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadenijad "is to have Bob Shrum run his re-election."
 
"The first thing I would do is not invite him to the inauguration," Giuliani said of Ahmadenijad, in a jab against Barack Obama, before suggesting the way to deal with terrorist leaders was to "ostracize, not engage." Miller seemed convinced. "I know Yogi feels it ain't over 'til it's over, but in terms of this election, it's over," Miller said. "You're it."
 
In an odd moment, Giuliani took a question from a 9-year-old about what he would do as president, and wound up speaking about how citizen vigilance against terrorism helped break up the Fort Dix terrorism plot earlier this year.
 
MCCAIN: The Arizona Republic looks at rebuilding of McCain's campaign through the lens of manager Rick Davis.
 
Speaking of rebuilding, AP's Sidoti writes a comeback story of sorts, noting that with proof that he's on the rise with a new New Hampshire poll showing a bump this month, McCain is now focusing on "credentials to be commander in chief": "With proof of an uptick, McCain will roll out two television commercials and two radio ads in New Hampshire -- an indication that his fundraising in the third financial quarter, which ends Sunday, may have put his campaign on more solid footing." 
 
PAUL: The Boston Globe front-pages the "feisty following" for the "long-shot candidacy" of Ron Paul. 
 
ROMNEY: Not surprisingly, Mitt Romney concedes he'll be contributing more personal money to his campaign.
 
THOMPSON: Politico's Martin leads: "Fred Thompson is failing to meet expectations that he would rally widespread support from Christian conservatives, and he almost certainly will not receive a joint endorsement from the loose coalition of "pro-family" organizations, according to leaders of the movement. Many religious conservatives, faced with a Republican primary top tier that lacked a true kindred spirit, initially looked to Thompson as a savior. But the former Tennessee senator has disappointed or just not sufficiently impressed the faith community since his formal campaign launch earlier this month." 
 
This news feeds the notion that Thompson is failing to make inroads with the conservative elite, even as he's apparently being well received by conservative voters. Which is the trailing indicator?
 
This could be awkward. Thompson speaks Oct. 19th at the Family Research Council's Values Voter Summit. That's the same Family Research Council, whose head, prominent evangelical leader Dr. James Dobson, was highly critical of Thompson in an email that was revealed last week.

CLINTON: The Washington Times runs this story: "Officials of a defunct pro-Democratic group that was hit with a near-record campaign-finance fine last month hold strong ties to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign, documents show. At least four persons who worked for the America Coming Together (ACT) fundraising group, which the Federal Election Commission recently fined $775,000, work directly for the Clinton campaign or hold top positions with consulting firms hired by it." 
 
And don't miss the clipart graphic a Web site run by the Clinton campaign used of Obama likely leading in fund-raising. The graphic was also passed along by the Clinton campaign itself over e-mail. Notably, it's no longer on the Web site, but the Boston Globe clipped it and asked, Did someone think that maybe it was a little too much? 
 
Rob Reiner can handle the truth! He's for Hillary.
 
EDWARDS: The candidate's ties to the hedge fund Fortress continue to haunt the candidate in some of the early states. A few weeks ago, a South Carolina paper noted the number of local foreclosures by subprime mortgage companies owned by Fortress and had the candidate on the defensive. Now, this morning, in the Des Moines Register, the paper reports on another 100+ Iowa homeowners being foreclosured upon by Fortress-owned lenders. "Most Iowa Democratic activists interviewed by The Des Moines Register say the foreclosures by themselves do not undermine Edwards' anti-poverty message. However, some say he should have known that his tie to Fortress, which paid him $479,500 for 14 months of work, would be scrutinized in the campaign."
 
Edwards said he did not know about the Iowa foreclosures until his campaign was contacted by the Register. Edwards said he has no plans to establish a charity for the Iowans with Fortress mortgages because they were not affected by Hurricane Katrina the way borrowers in New Orleans were.
 
OBAMA: NBC-NJ's Aswini Anburajan reports, at a debate watch party for Obama supporters at Dartmouth last night, the audience was subdued during the debate (maybe because it wasn't that exciting or because the eighty-plus degree weather helped lull the crowd into a stupor) but there was a large chorus of boos for NBC commentator Chris Matthews for criticizing Obama's performance.
 
A hoarse Obama stopped by the debate party around 11:30 and spoke for about five minutes. Emphasizing the importance of building momentum from the ground up, he told the story of starting out as a community organizer in Chicago where only one or two people showed up for the first three meetings he tried to hold. He also referred to a recent poll that had Sen. Clinton in the lead by twenty points, and said that it meant nothing besides what percentage of people were supporting which candidate.  "Twenty percent of voters are with Sen. Clinton, 10 percent are with me, Edwards has about 5 percent and the rest of the candidates have less than that."
 
Citing that same poll, Obama said the most important fact overlooked by the pundits were the number of undecideds still up for grabs. "There are 55 percent of voters who are undecided.  That's 55 to 60 percent of the people who are waiting to hear from you," he told the crowd of campaign volunteers made up of students from colleges in Massachusetts and across New Hampshire as well as local volunteers.
 
Obama's fund-raising "is slipping," Bloomberg News writes. The expectation is about $20 million this quarter, according to the article, but "a failure to out-raise Clinton would deprive Obama of the momentum he needs to overcome his rival's leads in national and key state polls."

The Boston Globe's top story is Gen. Casey telling the House Armed Services Committee, in his first appearance as Army chief of staff, that the Army is "out of balance" and "the current demand for our forces exceeds the sustainable supply. We are consumed with meeting the demands of the current fight and are unable to provide ready forces as rapidly as necessary for other potential contingencies."
 
Casey "personally requested the public hearing -- a highly unusual move that military analysts said underscores his growing concern about the health of the Army, America's primary fighting force."
 
And "Secretary of Defense Robert Gates asked Congress for a record-setting $190 billion to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan for the next year -- nearly $50 billion more than anticipated. Most of the money would go to Iraq. If the request is approved, the cost of the 2003 invasion will top $600 billion."

This has to have Republicans vexed. The Boston Globe reports that after "a judge took Senator Larry Craig's request to withdraw his guilty plea under advisement," Craig said in statement: "Today was a major step in the legal effort to clear my name. The court has not issued a ruling on my motion to withdraw my guilty plea. For now, I will continue my work in the US Senate for Idaho." He didn't mention his "earlier commitment to resign Sept. 30." 
 
Roll Call reports that "in the wake of Rep. Terry Everett's (R-Ala.) announcement Wednesday that he will not seek re-election in 2008, national Democratic leaders and state party officials were quick to say that Republicans are wrong to assume the race to replace him won't be competitive." Party leaders apparently already have a candidate picked out, who they call "an A Team candidate" and a "recruiting coup."