From NBC's Mark Murray

At last weekend's Democratic debate, Hillary Clinton once again made this argument in criticizing Barack Obama for saying that nuclear weapons should be off the table when dealing with Al Qaeda in Pakistan: You need to be careful what you say. "We shouldn't use hypotheticals. You know, words do matter. And this campaign just like every other thing that happens in the United States, is looked at and followed with very great interest."

So given those remarks, it's striking that she made this hypothetical yesterday: "It's a horrible prospect to ask yourself 'What if? What if?,'" she said. "But if certain things happen between now and the election, particularly with respect to terrorism, that will automatically give the Republicans an advantage again, no matter how badly they have mishandled it, no matter how much more dangerous they have made the world. So I think I'm the best of the Democrats to deal with that as well." Clinton's comment came as she was touting her experience and how that would benefit her in a general election.

Her Democratic rivals weren't too pleased with the comment. Said Chris Dodd in a statement, "Frankly, I find it tasteless to discuss political implications when talking about a potential terrorist attack on the United States."

Asked for a response to Dodd's charge, Clinton spokesman Isaac Baker tells First Read, "Sen Clinton was making clear that she has the strength and experience to keep the country safe."

From NBC's Carrie Dann

…You probably think this bus tour's about you.
 
On Day Two of the New Hampshire media blitz designed to paint him as the change candidate, Edwards insists that his retooled anti-establishment stump speech isn't intended to slam his Democratic rivals.

"Nothing I said yesterday has to do with other presidential candidates," Edwards told reporters in Manchester this morning. "They need to move on from thinking about themselves and think about what's important to the country."
 
Edwards faced tough questioning from journalists in the wake of comments yesterday that appeared to deliver a head-on accusation of too-cozy relations between the Clinton administration and DC lobbyists. (The Clinton camp responded by labeling his "angry attacks" as the mark of a "flagging" campaign.)

But after touting his universal health care plan today, Edwards insisted that he's not trying to pick fights -- OR to be the main attraction. "This is not about me, or about Senator Clinton, or Senator Obama," he said. 
 
As for the bitter back-and-forth with his rivals? "Unfortunately, that's the response you get when you're actually trying to talk," he said, "instead of talking about politics."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Biden campaign is sending out a fund-raising e-mail, hoping to reach $200,000 by the end of this month to keep his two ads in Iowa on the air. The campaign also includes a video, called "Joe is Right," which cuts together sound bites of presidential contenders, pundits, strategists, and journalists lauding Biden's Iraq plan and foreign policy experience.

From NBC's Libby Leist
As part of an administration-wide public relations effort to show progress in Iraq since the surge of U.S. troops in January, the State Department today organized a briefing for reporters to highlight what they believe is a success story in Anbar province.
 
State and DOD Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) leaders working in Ramadi, Anbar described many improvements in a city they found devastated when a new group of 6,000 U.S. soldiers and Marines arrived in March, but they also admit that the Al Qaeda threat is "always a worry" and that there is no planning for what might happen if U.S. troops are scaled back.

In March, 80 percent of the people did not have water and power, the leaders said, buildings were destroyed and al Qaeda was still a force.

Major Lee Suttee, the lead DOD official for the Ramadi PRT, said everything began to change in April. He credits the combination of local Iraqi police, the Iraqi Army and coalition forces working together as the key to stabilizing the city. Suttee believes the local sheikhs were crucial in the effort to bring the Iraqi police into the mix and turn back support for al Qaeda.

"The fighting stopped. And when it came to a stop, it literally stopped, about April 22nd," Suttee said.

Since then, the PRT's have worked to help the local officials build their government and to bring back essential services to the people there. Suttee noted that there have been 102 days without attacks (though that is not consecutive days). The military is finding weapons caches at a greater rate, he said, and PRT officials are able to travel in two-vehicle convoys down from four vehicles several months ago.

State Department official Kristin Hagerstrom reported that she is now able to walk on the streets and, for example, "you can buy an ice cream cone."

Despite the successes, the officials did admit that the return of al Qaeda remains a serious concern. Hagerstrom said, "It's always a worry. It's something ... everyone's alert about at all times."
 
Their hope is that that local leaders and police will continue to fight back. "...The tribal leaders and the people of Ramadi, by joining with coalition forces, have basically signed a death warrant, all of them. If al Qaeda comes back, they will kill them all, and they know that. So they're all in it together," she said.

When Suttee was asked whether he was worried troop withdrawals would threaten to erase the progress that has been made, he said he can't worry about that.

"We're trying to strike while the iron's hot," he said. "We feel that if you build enough of this feeling that there's positive hope for the future in the population, that regardless of whether there's five battalions or one battalion here, that the city, with their well-trained Iraqi police, will be able to do the job."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Michigan Democrats issued a letter, endorsing the proposed early contest date of Jan. 15, which has already passed in the Michigan Senate.

This comes a day before the DNC is set to level heavy sanctions on Florida for moving up its date to Jan. 29. Part of why the DNC wants to take such a hard stance toward Florida is to send a message to other states, to put a halt to the shifting nominating contest calendar. But it will be interesting to see if tomorrow's rules and bylaws meeting has the desired effect.

The letter was signed by 14 Democrats, including Sens. Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow, Reps. John Dingell, Sander Levin, John Conyers and Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick.

Here is the full text of the letter:

August 24, 2007

The Honorable Jennifer Granholm
Governor
State of Michigan

Chairman Mark Brewer
Michigan Democratic Party

Chairman Saul Anuzis
Michigan Republican Party

Dear Governor Granholm, Chairman Brewer and Chairman Anuzis:

We are writing to indicate our preference for a presidential delegate selection process that embraces an inclusive and early primary in Michigan.

There has been much discussion in recent weeks and days as to what the best approach would be for Michigan to take for this Presidential cycle. We believe that it is vital that all Michigan citizens be provided with an opportunity to participate and have their voices heard in this crucial election cycle. A primary election provides the most inclusive process and highest voter participation.

In the 2004 Democratic caucus, only 164,000 people participated in a state of over 10 million people. By contrast, in the 2002 and 2006 Democratic and Republican primaries, 1.6 million voters and 1.1 million voters participated, respectively. It is critical that millions of people have the opportunity to participate in a process that is reliable and inclusive. 

We support efforts to make the overall Presidential nominating process more reflective of the diversity of this country, and strongly believe that manufacturing issues need to be part of the Presidential candidate dialogue. Embracing an early, inclusive contest would ensure that those issues are raised and our Michigan viewpoints are heard. An early, inclusive primary election is the best way to ensure the issues of trade, health care, and manufacturing are in the national limelight.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt observed that "the constant free flow of communication among us—enabling the free interchange of ideas—forms the very bloodstream of our nation. It keeps the mind and body of our democracy eternally vital, eternally young."  We, in Michigan, have a responsibility to provide a forum where the largest number of people possible are participating in this process, in what, quite frankly will be one of the most important elections of many people's lifetime. Maximum participation should be the first and foremost goal with the goal of keeping this state's future healthy and vital.

Sincerely,

Carl Levin, United States Senator; Andy Dillon, Speaker, Michigan House of Representatives; Debbie Stabenow, United State Senator; Mark Schauer, Michigan Senate Democratic Leader; John D. Dingell, Member of Congress; John Conyers, Member of Congress; Sander Levin, Member of Congress; Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick,
Member of Congress; Kwame Kilpatrick, Mayor, City of Detroit; Robert Ficano, Wayne County Executive; Jewel Ware, Wayne County Commission; Debbie Dingell, DNC Committee Member; Michael Tardif, DNC Committee Member; Richard Wiener, DNC Committee Member

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The conservative New Hampshire Union-Leader this morning writes a staff editorial with the headline, "Clinton's surge-ery: Now it's working, now it's not." Unabashedly, the Dodd campaign is circulating it, taking the opportunity to again blast Clinton on the perceived flip-flop.

In the e-mail from the Dodd campaign, Senior Adviser Jim Jordan writes, "It's unnerving that a would-be Commander-in-Chief can't, or won't, make up her mind on something as fundamental as the success or failure of Bush's surge. Really, it smells like more poll-driven straddling."

**** UPDATE **** The Clinton campaign reponds: "The fact is that while Democrats, including Senator Edwards and Senator Obama, acknowledge progress in Al Anbar, Senator Clinton opposed the surge from the start and believes there is no military solution to the war in Iraq."

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Andy Merten

Obama varied slightly from his stump speech last night at a rally at Coastal Carolina University in South Carolina, making a direct appeal to the mostly African-American crowd. He talked about the need for a "sense of urgency" to help all people in need, even if you yourself are doing well.

"For those who think, 'Well my child's doing alright, I don't have to worry about all these black children and brown children,'" Obama said, "let me tell you something: Half of the U.S. workforce is going to be black and brown in a few years, so our economy is going to depend on how those children do. Our children, making sure that somebody's working to pay our social security, is going to depend on those children working."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The day before the Democratic National Committee may level sanctions against Florida for moving up its primary to Jan. 29, Florida Democrats threatened legal action against the DNC if the state is punished and said the DNC would, in effect, "disenfranchise" Florida voters.

"If the DNC sanctions Florida, then some of us on the Florida congressional delegation may ask an appropriate legal venue to determine whether or not a political party's rules can supercede someone's right to vote," said Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) on a conference call with reporters. Nelson admitted, though, he did not know what their legal argument would be or to which court they could appeal.

VIDEO:  NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the battle of leapfrogging primaries.

Nelson also said he proposed a compromise to DNC Chairman Howard Dean twice, as recent as a month ago in a face-to-face meeting he described as cordial, that the other states all move up their selection contests by seven days to maintain the nominating order.

Florida can't move its date, Nelson said, because it's set by law, adding that there will absolutely be a Jan. 29 Florida primary. Nelson repeated his charge that stripping Florida of its delegates would render the state's Jan. 29th vote a "beauty contest." Rep. Alcee Hastings said it wouldn't be a beauty contest; it would be an "ugly contest."

Nelson, Hastings and Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz added that they were surprised to learn the DNC would level sanctions. But the DNC has long been warning of sanctions if Florida moves up.

"We are in a situation, where we have a Republican-controlled legislature," Wasserman-Schultz maintained. "It was beyond our control, our members control."

But neither Nelson nor Hastings nor Wasserman-Schultz said they would have wanted to keep the contest at Feb. 5. In fact, quite the contrary.

Hastings: "We stand a better chance of winning the general election by keeping this Jan. 29th."

Nelson: "We're going to have a big turnout in Florida on Jan. 29th."

Wassmerman-Schultz: "We do want Florida to be more relevant. To remain at the back of the pack, where we're irrelevant" is not what was wanted.

Nelson expressed frustration at the entire process and said he will introduce a measure in November to institute regional primaries with a rotating schedule.

"Doesn't this indicate the process is flawed?" Wasserman-Schultz said. "There is no state that is going to let their state's voters be irrelevant."

From NBC's Mark Murray
Here's a quick final thought today since the morning version of First Read isn't publishing tomorrow... Earlier this week, proponents of Bush's troop surge were seeing some things finally break their way just before Gen. Petraeus' September report on the situation in Iraq. First, some Democrats started to speak positively about the surge. Even Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton said it was working in Al Anbar Province, although she added that it was too little, too late (and then stated on Wednesday that the surge failed). Next came the new multi-million-dollar TV ad campaign arguing that a withdrawal from Iraq would be disastrous.

But that good news for the White House and its allies came to a crashing halt today -- with today's updated NIE report (which said that security in Iraq will continue to improve modestly, but that the level of sectarian violence there will remain high), and the speech by GOP Sen. John Warner (who argued that the White House should begin a small withdrawal of troops).

Is it fair to say that we're back to where we were before the week started: that the surge and Iraq remain perilous political issues for the White House and the GOP?

From NBC's Mark Murray
Roll Call reported this afternoon that Rep. Rick Renzi, R-Ariz., has decided not to seek re-election, "ending months of speculation regarding the ethically clouded congressman's political future."

"Renzi's retirement announcement adds to a list of GOP Members planning to depart upon the conclusion of the 110th Congress, including Reps. Ray LaHood (Ill.), Deborah Pryce (Ohio) and Chip Pickering (Miss.), as well as former Speaker and Rep. Dennis Hastert (Ill.)."

"But while some of those retirements and the open seats they are creating could cause problems for the Republicans' hopes of recapturing the majority, Renzi's departure could help the GOP by allowing them to nominate a replacement that is free of the ethical baggage that appears to have ultimately undone the Congressman's future."

Despite that, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Jennifer Crider issued this statement: "Rick Renzi is following the Republican Conference corruption playbook -- both Bob Ney and Duke Cunningham announced they were 'retiring' before they pleaded guilty and resigned. The people of Arizona's First Congressional District deserve to be represented by someone who puts them first and is free of criminal and ethical scandal."

From NBC's Mark Murray
With the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee set on Saturday to consider possible sanctions against Florida after moving up its primary to January 29, Florida Democrats -- Sen. Bill Nelson and Reps. Alcee Hastings, Kendrick Meek, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Kathy Castor -- today fired a warning shot at the DNC.

In a letter to DNC chairman Howard Dean, these five Democrats said they were concerned that the DNC would sanction Florida Democrats if the state goes ahead with its plan to hold its binding primary on a date before February 5. "If true -- and, if the DNC strips Florida of all or some of its delegates to the national convention -- we would ask the appropriate legal officials to determine whether this could violate any state or federal laws governing and protecting individual voting rights."

And then they said this, a reminder of the 2000 voting chaos in the state: "It always has been a priority of our party to protect the right of every eligible American to vote. We would hope the DNC will continue to honor this right, when the Rules and Bylaws Committee meets Saturday in Washington."

In response to this letter, a DNC spokeswoman said, "We will wait and see what the Rules and Bylaws Committee decides on Saturday. We hope Florida will do the right thing and work with the DNC to comply with the rules they voted for."

Interestingly, three of these Florida Democrats -- Hastings, Meek, and Wasserman Schultz -- have endorsed Clinton; Nelson and Castor have yet to make an endorsement. 

From NBC's Andrew Merten and Abby Livingston
Asked if he agrees with some fellow Democratic senators if Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki should be removed from power, Obama said the problem "goes beyond" who specifically is in power.

"We could have one, two, three, four replacements for Maliki," Obama said, "but if the underlying political dynamic hasn't changed, then we're not going to see progress. … We know that by putting outstanding U.S. troops on the ground, that they will, on the short term, reduce violence. But unless we can get the various factions to work together, we're not going to see the kind of progress that's needed."

Obama made the comments in response to questions from reporters after a roundtable discussion on education in South Carolina. The school he spoke at is the oldest public school in the Palmetto State and was highlighted in the documentary "Corridors of Shame" for its poor conditions. Obama acknowledged the conditions at J.V. Martin Junior High and emphasized his view that federal funding has been misplaced and could be put toward schools like this one.

"We're building schools -- in Baghdad," Obama said, and "we have lost a lot of revenue from tax cuts to individuals that didn't need them and weren't even asking for it."

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
In a speech on health-care quality in New Hampshire, Clinton laid out her five-fold plan to Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center health care professionals: (1) support health care providers, (2) educate patients, (3) reimburse doctors by rewarding quality, (4) recruit and retain more nurses, which she called the "heart and soul of the health care system," and (5) address health disparities for both racial/ethnic reasons and preexisting conditions.
 
Using language Clinton has previously reserved for the Iraq war and the military, Clinton said America "plod[s] along with a 20th-Century health-care system unable to take full advantage of 21st-Century medical advances, stuck in the same rut of fatalistic thinking that has defined our health-care debate for more than a decade."
 
Unlike Edwards and Obama who have laid out their entire health care policies in one speech, Clinton's policy speech today is the second of three on the topic. Earlier this summer, Clinton talked about lowering costs in health care, and she promised a speech next month on her plan for universal healthcare. "My order here is deliberate," Clinton said. "In order to forge a consensus on universal health care, we need to assure people that they'll get the quality they expect at a price they can afford."

Throughout her speech, Clinton mentioned how the government would get involved, promising a public-private partnership for a quality trust by asking the Secretary of Health and Human Services to invest $125 million in the area.
 
She also promised federal support for continuing multi-occupations (MOC) education for physicians. "As president, I want to lend the support of the federal government to the MOC process to help doctors stay on the top of their game," Clinton said. "I will offer higher Medicare reimbursement rates to doctors who participate in qualified MOC programs."
 
While talking about proper reimbursement for doctors, Clinton offered some praise for President Bush for refusing Medicare payments for "never events" such as "preventable infections, injuries and errors sustained during hospital stays."

"It's not often that I offer praise for the Bush administration," Clinton said to laughter, "but it is well deserved for this decision."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
On the heels of the updated National Intelligence Report on Iraq, Obama proposed eight things the United States should do, including redeploying troops, issuing a "transparent timetable" and ramping up diplomatic efforts

"This National Intelligence Estimate underscores the fundamental truth that we cannot continue to substitute the bravery of our troops for a true commitment from the Iraqi government to resolve the grievances at the heart of their civil war, and a true commitment from the Administration to aggressive diplomacy," Obama said.

Here's what Obama proposes:
-Responsibly redeploy our troops from Iraq by issuing a transparent timetable for the planned withdrawal of our troops.
-Aggressively surge the diplomacy required to press for a political solution within Iraq, and to keep neighboring countries from fomenting instability in Iraq.
-Dramatically increase assistance to Iraq's two million displaced.
-Dramatically increase assistance for refugees, including the more than 2 million in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt.  
-Fill the 7,000 asylum slots in the United States that the State Department pledged to fill earlier in the year. Political leadership will be required to expedite the department of homeland security's review of Iraqi asylum applicants. Thus far, this year, only 190 Iraqis have been allowed into the United States -- an embarrassing number given the scope of the problem, and the fact that many Iraqis have risked their lives working with American forces in Iraq.
-Appeal to those countries that were part of the Coalition in the Iraq war to expand their refugee quotas and to increase bilateral assistance to Iraq's neighbors who are carrying the refugee burden. Arab governments, especially US allies in the Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, should also be enlisted.
-Ensure that our military and financial assistance to Iraq's government and security forces is not being diverted to sectarian militias. 
-And make clear to the militia leaders and government officials in Iraq that the United States and the international community is going to catalogue and prepare to hold the perpetrators of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide accountable for their crimes.

**** UPDATE 1****
EDWARDS: "As today's new National Intelligence Estimate reveals, the violence in Iraq remains high, attempts to reconcile the political factions have failed, and the political leaders remain 'unable to govern effectively.'

"I am the only candidate to call for an immediate withdrawal of 40,000 to 50,000 troops, to jump-start all parties to let go of the crutch of the American military and start working on a real countrywide political solution.  Congress also must have complete information about a political solution well in advance of the end of October, when they will again have the opportunity to use their Constitutional funding power to force the president to change course. 

"I am also calling today for an immediate diplomatic offensive from the Bush Administration.  This 'diplomatic surge' must begin with an 'Iraqi Stability Conference' that would include high-level meetings by American and allied diplomats with all leading Iraqi Parliamentarians, sectarian leaders, the governments of both Iran and Syria, and leaders in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, and Kuwait.  These meetings should be aimed at real commitments of how these parties will contribute to a long-term comprehensive plan to stabilize the country."

DODD: "The reported conclusions of the latest NIE are another sign that, even as American troops continue admirably to serve in Iraq, the Iraqi government has done virtually nothing to put its house in order. With no progress on political reconciliation between the various sects in Iraq, it is clear that President Bush's tactic of troop escalation has failed to achieve its goal of convincing Iraqi leaders that they must take bold steps to promote stability and reconciliation in Iraq. In fact the report confirms that Sunnis and Shia remain deeply suspicious of each other with no sign of reversing that belief anytime soon. Indeed, this report is further evidence that there is a disconnect between military operations to establish security in Iraq and elsewhere in the country and the willingness of an Iraqi political leadership to take advantage of improved security to promote political compromise and reconciliation on behalf of all Iraqis.

"I do not believe that Iraq's political leaders will have any incentive to demonstrate bold leadership and reach a political accord until we begin redeploying American troops and it is clear that finally they must fully assume responsibility for their country."

**** UPDATE 2****
CLINTON: "As I have said many times before, there is not a military solution in Iraq.  Progress will only come from political reconciliation and compromise from the Iraqis themselves.  In January, President Bush argued that the escalation of U.S. troops into Iraq would create the political space for reconciliation among the Iraqis.  At the time that the President announced the escalation, I opposed this new strategy because I did not believe the Iraqi government was committed to making the tough political decisions necessary for Iraq to resolve its sectarian divisions.  Indeed, the declassified key judgments from the most recent National Intelligence Estimate regarding "Prospects for Iraq's Stability" clearly demonstrate that progress toward political reconciliation in Iraq has not been achieved since the beginning of the President's decision to add additional troops into Iraq.  The NIE's key judgments provide additional evidence that the President's escalation strategy has failed.  We need to stop refereeing this civil war, and start getting out now."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Dodd became the latest to criticize Michigan and other states for trying to leapfrog the traditional nominating states of Iowa and New Hampshire. Dodd also subtly criticizes Edwards for his stance on the primaries in the e-mailed press release.

"I disagree with those candidates who would say that they are 'running a national campaign' and accept the political maneuvering to preempt Iowa's time-tested and important role in the process of choosing which candidate would make the strongest nominee and strongest President," Dodd writes.

But in the statement, Dodd takes a shot at Edwards. The words "who would say they are 'running a national campaign'" link to Edwards' interview with the Associated Press. In that interview, Edwards said, "I'm running a national campaign, so I'm going to campaign in the states that are participating in the process. My job is not to make the rules, my job is to run."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The same group that created the notorious ad for the RNC against Harold Ford in his 2006 U.S. Senate run, depicting a blonde woman telling Ford to "Call me," is going to be leading the way in crafting Giuliani's image.

Heath Thompson, a partner at Scott Howell and Company, will serve as Giuliani's Lead Creative Consultant. Thompson was President Bush's regional political director in 2004 for 10 states, including Florida and Missouri. He also directed Bush's 2000 South Carolina primary win.

Also hopping on to promote the Giuliani cause are Chris Mottola and Associates, BrabenderCox and Crossroads Media. Mottola was also part of Bush's 2000 and 2004 creative team and has represented Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) and former New York Gov. and one-time Republican presidential hopeful George Pataki. BrabenderCox has mostly worked on U.S. House, Senate and governors' races. Crossroads has worked with the national Republican committees and says it has placed an ad in every state in the country within the past 17 years.

From NBC's Andrew Merten
John Edwards' speech this morning from Hanover, NH today wasn't short on jabs against the "establishment" and "Washington insiders" -- words that seemed directed at Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.

"We have got to chart a new course," Edwards said. "Those wedded to the policies of the '70s, '80s, or '90s are wedded to the past -- ideas and policies that are tired, shop worn, and obsolete. We will find no answers there." He went on to warn of only looking fondly on the past: "The problem with nostalgia is what we tend to do is, you only remember what you liked and forget the parts that you didn't like," he said, without making any verbal recognition towards the Clinton presidency. 
 
When asked by a reporter after his speech if his warnings against nostalgia and the establishment were digs at Clinton, Edwards neither confirmed nor denied that they should be interpreted as such. He simply reasserted what he said during his address, saying, "Going back doesn't move us forward, and we need to move forward," adding, "We have to take on the entrenched interests that exist in Washington and stand between us and the change that the American people want to see."

But another comment during his speech wasn't that subtle. "The American people deserve to know that their presidency is not for sale -- the Lincoln Bedroom is not for rent," Edwards said, obviously referring to the Clinton Administration practice of inviting top donors to stay overnight at the White House.

Also in his speech, Edwards refrained from mentioning Obama (either directly or indirectly), possibly to frame himself as the anti-establishment change candidate, without any potential competitors to that title.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
NBC News has obtained the National Intelligence Estimate report on Iraq, which is entitled:
"Prospects for Iraq's Stability: Some Security Progress but Political Reconciliation Elusive." Here are some key excerpts...

-- "There have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq's security situation since our last NIE on Iraq in January 2007... However, the level of violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high; Iraq's sectarian groups remain unreconciled; al-Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI) retains the ability of conduct high-profile attack; and to date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively. There have been modest improvements in economic output, budget execution, and government finances but fundamental structural problems continue to prevent sustained progress in economic growth and living conditions."

-- "We assess, the extent that Coalition forces continue to conduct robust counterinsurgency operations and mentor and support the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), that Iraq's security will continue to improve modestly during the next 6 to 12 months but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi Government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance."

-- "Political and security trajectories in Iraq continue to be driven primarily by Shia insecurity about retaining political dominance, widespread Sunni unwillingness to accept a diminished political status, factional rivalries within the sectarian communities resulting in armed conflict, and the actions of extremists such as AQI and the elements of the Sadrist Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM) militia that try to fuel sectarian violence."

-- "The Intelligence Community (IC) assesses that the Iraqi government will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months because of criticism by other member of the major Shia coalition (the Unified Iraqi Alliance, UIA), Grand Ayatollah Sistani, and other Sunni and Kurdish parties."

-- "We assess that changing the mission of Coalition forces from primarily counterinsurgency and stabilization role to a primary combat support role for Iraqi forces and counterterrorist operation to prevent AQI from establishing a safehaven would erode security gains achieved thus far."

From NBC's Andrew Merten

On The Daily Show last night, Obama was asked by Jon Stewart to touch on the "experience vs. change" narrative that has dominated the media's coverage of him and Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton. When Stewart asked if Clinton's four additional years in the Senate -- in addition to her tenure as First Lady -- really makes her the more "experienced" of the two, Obama answered carefully. "She's a very capable senator," adding, "I think people rightly give her credit for having been a participant in the Clinton Administration, and that she was doing some of the heavy lifting on issues."

But Obama went on to differentiate himself from Clinton in the same manner as he's been doing in debates and on the stump. "I do think that, increasingly what Americans are looking for is not Washington experience, but do you have life experience that is going to lead you to make good decisions, and are you in touch with what's happening on the ground?"

Earlier in the interview, Obama lauded the enthusiastic outpouring of support from youth his campaign has seen so far. When Stewart questioned if he was providing kegs to draw college-aged crowds, Obama jokingly replied, "We don't like to divulge our secrets."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro

*** The Re-Launch: So is Edwards trying to re-launch his campaign? It depends on how one interprets a speech he's giving today in New Hampshire, where he attempts to re-frame the race in a way that makes him the real change agent in the Democratic race. "The choice for our party could not be more clear," Edwards will say, according to advance excerpts. "We cannot replace a group of corporate Republicans with a group of corporate Democrats, just swapping the Washington insiders of one party for the Washington insiders of the other." He also will say, "The choice we must make is as important as it is clear. It is a choice between looking back and looking forward. A choice between the way we've always done it and the way we could do it if we dared… It is caution versus courage. Old versus new. Calculation versus principle. It is the establishment elites versus the American people." This, it seems, will be the argument that Edwards plans to use against Clinton for the rest of the campaign. At a minimum, consider this the new stump speech.

*** Hillary And Health Care: Interestingly, as Edwards argues for the candidates to think big and bold, Clinton also is in New Hampshire today, where she delivers a speech on health-care quality. It's her second health-care address -- the first one was on costs. She has still to unveil her entire health-care plan. No doubt the Edwards camp hopes the fact that both he and Clinton will be New Hampshire on the same day will make the contrast he is trying to create easy for the media to pick up on.*** The Romney Two-Step: Another Romney flip-flop? The Washington Post picks up on the state's rights comments regarding abortion that Romney recently made in an interview with Nevada political journo Jon Ralston (see yesterday's First Read). The Post notes that Romney's states' rights defense differed from a debate answer he gave when he said he was in favor of a Constitutional amendment to restrict abortion. The campaign's response: that Romney "supports a two-step process in which states get authority over abortion after Roe v. Wade is overturned, followed eventually by a constitutional amendment that bans most abortions." Is anyone else a bit confused? Did Romney simply get caught up in "states' rights" spin because he knew he had to justify Nevada's support for gaming?

Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd on Mitt Romney's support for states' rights and abortion restrictions.

*** It's The Economy…: The Washington Post's Birnbaum today writes about the reaction by the presidential candidates to the newest issue on the trail: the country's credit crunch. "Sensing an opportunity to connect with voters on an issue important to their economic futures, presidential candidates have rushed out a variety of prescriptions for these woes, with Democrats proposing the most aggressive solutions… Republican presidential candidates have been less activist in their response to the credit tightness." Bottom line: What if we're all wrong about what this election is going to be about? What if it's NOT about Iraq but about the economy? Isn't that a bigger nightmare for the GOP than having to fight an election about Iraq? Remember, the pocketbook ALWAYS trumps -- if the pocketbook starts to look a bit bare with rank-and-file voters. Does the economy become a deadlier political punch for the Republicans to deal with than Iraq? It certainly doesn't help.

*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Gravel, Kucinich, and Richardson attend a forum in California called Prez on Rez with Native American elected tribal leaders from around the country; Obama is in South Carolina; and Richardson -- in addition to attending the Prez on the Rez forum -- rolls out his "Mi Familia con Richardson" grassroots program to reach out to Latinos.

*** A Note About Tomorrow: The morning edition of First Read will return on Monday. But don't worry -- we'll have plenty of updates on our Web site all day Friday.  

Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 11 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 58 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 75 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 86 days
Countdown to Iowa: 143 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 165 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 439 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 516 days

The Washington Post on Bush's speech yesterday: "President Bush defended his ongoing military commitment in Iraq by linking the conflict there to the Vietnam War, arguing Wednesday that withdrawing U.S. troops would lead to widespread death and suffering as it did in Southeast Asia three decades ago… Although his comments played well among the veterans here -- the speech was interrupted with repeated cheers and applause -- the references to the Vietnam conflict, which remains a divisive, emotional issue for many Americans, prompted strong criticism from Democrats."

VIDEO:  In a speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars, President Bush compares the Iraq war to U.S. involvment in Asia.

Interestingly, in the White House press office' s "Morning Update," the staff appeared to take pains to find clips of Bush's VFW speech that didn't make the Vietnam comparison. Notice the phrase "far east."

The New York Times adds, "The speech was the beginning of an intense White House initiative to shape the debate on Capitol Hill in September, when the president's troop buildup will undergo a re-evaluation. It came amid rising concerns in Washington over the performance of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki of Iraq, who has made little progress toward bridging the sectarian divide in his country."

More: "On Thursday, the administration is planning to make public parts of a sober new report by American intelligence agencies expressing deep doubts that the Maliki government can overcome sectarian differences. Government officials who have seen the report say it gives a bleak outlook on the chances Mr. Maliki can meet milestones intended to promote unity in Iraq."

George Will writes, "Petraeus's metrics of success might ignite more arguments than they settle. In America, police drug sweeps often produce metrics of success but dealers soon relocate their operations. If Iraqi security forces have become substantially more competent, some Americans will say U.S. forces can depart; if those security forces have not yet substantially improved, the same people will say U.S. forces must depart. Furthermore, will the security forces' competence ultimately serve the Iraqi state -- or a sect?"

On the surge-is-working flap, "Camp Clinton insisted she was talking only about a limited improvement in Anbar, linked to better relations with tribal leaders -- a claim she made to the Daily News in March," the New York Daily News writes. "The surge was designed to give the Iraqi government time to take steps to ensure a political solution," Clinton said yesterday. "It has failed."

Dodd yesterday released this statement regarding his rivals' recent statements on the surge in Iraq: "Despite the exemplary performance of our troops, we are coming off the bloodiest summer of this misguided war and it should be clear that there can be no military solution in Iraq. It is useless to argue the merits of a specific tactic when the strategy itself is failed."

He went on to say, "In fact, debating over military tactics when there is no military solution only undermines efforts by those of us who believe that we must change course in Iraq now and begin to immediately redeploy US combat forces so that Iraqi leaders will have the impetus to find a political accord."

CLINTON: Here's a piece that will make the Obama campaign crazy. Bloomberg News has a story about how little Clinton and Obama disagree on such issues as Iraq and taxes and even health care. Doesn't the more the sentiment is out there, the more it helps Clinton and hurts Obama? "While their approaches set them apart, the front-runners for the Democratic nomination have almost no differences on issues."

EDWARDS: The AP previews Edwards' speech today, noting that it plans "to make an aggressive challenge to his Democratic rivals, charging their 'change rhetoric' doesn't match their policies and voters shouldn't pick based on nostalgia."

Some excerpts of the speech the campaign gave to First Read. Anyone else think they're pointed at Clinton? "The choice we must make is as important as it is clear. It is a choice between looking back and looking forward. A choice between the way we've always done it and the way we could do it if we dared. A choice between corporate power and the power of democracy. Between a corrupt and corroded system and a government that works for us again."

Also: "It is caution versus courage. Old versus new. Calculation versus principle. It is the establishment elites versus the American people. It is a choice between the failed compromises of the past and the bright possibilities of our future. Between resigning ourselves to Two Americas, or fighting for the One America we all believe in."

And: "Those wedded to the policies of the 70s, 80s, or 90s are wedded to the past -- ideas and policies that are tired, shop worn and obsolete. We will find no answers there. But small thinking and outdated answers aren't the only problems with a vision for the future that is rooted in nostalgia. The trouble with nostalgia is that you tend to remember what you liked and forget what you didn't. It's not just that the answers of the past aren't up to the job today, it's that the system that produced them was corrupt – and still is."

An interesting email from the Edwards campaign... Joe Trippi pens a memo to supporters noting Karl Rove's recent attacks on Hillary Clinton, and then he quotes Bush-Cheney '04 strategist Matthew Dowd claiming that in 2004, the Bush campaign made a tactical decision to attack John Kerry in the primaries so that Democrats would rally around him. The reason? The Bush campaign worried about having to face Edwards in that election. So Trippi puts two and two together with Rove and Clinton and argues that Rove is attacking Clinton because he really fears Edwards again. Of course, no mention of Obama in the email.

By the way, the Edwards press shop was busy yesterday. In fact, the campaign inexplicably decided to send out a release rebutting Ruth Marcus' Washington Post column, which seemed to claim Obama is more of a reformer than Edwards is, because Obama is for public financing of campaigns. From the Edwards release: "'There are two ways to reform our system. The first way is to pass legislation. I have publicly supported Senator Obama's plan for ethics and lobbying reform. I am also a strong supporter of public financing, and when I am the Democratic nominee for president, if the Republican nominee agrees, I will accept public financing of my campaign.  But, as we have seen over and over again, every time we are actually able to pass a new law, all of the lobbyists find loopholes to keep the system rigged.'"

Meanwhile, Edwards' hometown paper, the Raleigh News and Observer, looks at how the campaign is increasingly looking like an "Iowa or bust" effort.

OBAMA: The Washington Post's Ignatius writes on Obama's appearance before the VFW earlier this week and concludes: "The vets certainly aren't cheering wildly when Obama is done, but to judge from the dozens who rush up to meet him, he seems to have reassured this conservative audience that he's not a left-wing devil. When a local reporter asks him if he's surprised by the 'warm response' he got, Obama displays the almost eerie self-confidence that has marked his rise as a candidate." For those that couldn't stay up late last night to catch Obama on the Daily Show, the AP summed up his appearance pretty well.

After taping the Daily Show, Obama spoke at a rally in Brooklyn where he got the "Obama's trying to get traction on Clinton's turf" type coverage from the New York City press corps.

Time covers Obama's Cuba policy rollout and notes it actually could help him in Florida -- both in a primary and even in a general election, because of the generational divide that Cuba creates with Cubans.

GIULIANI: The New York Times picks up on the attacks Giuliani is receiving from Romney and Thompson over guns and immigration, and it notes they are coming via references to "New York City."

Meanwhile, Giuliani supporter Guy Molinari decided to rip Thompson for the gun attack. "Giuliani's adviser called Thompson out of bounds for penning a column on his blog blasting New York City's gun-control laws under Giuliani and his successor, Mayor Bloomberg. 'He's not just attacking Rudy. He's attacking every resident of New York City,' Molinari charged."

Giuliani again said, "I will end illegal immigration," which won him "his loudest applause of the evening," the New York Daily News writes. Giuliani added, "And one of the strict requirements of citizenship should be that you have to read English, write English and understand English."

USA Today looks at Giuliani's attempts to ramp up his operation in New Hampshire under the header: "Giuliani out to win a state 'made for him.'"

The Los Angeles Times begins what appears to be a profile series of sorts -- either specifically on Giuliani or on the 2008 candidates in general. This Giuliani profile focuses on Giuliani's days as a Justice Department aide in the Reagan Administration. "Years before he would become the swaggering, crime-busting U.S. attorney in Manhattan, before he would serve two terms as mayor and help lead New York through its darkest day, Giuliani already was demonstrating a florid sense of self, a high degree of self-confidence and a daring to pull the levers of bureaucratic power."

By the way, Andrew Giuliani is a REALLY good golfer. He just might have a chance to go pro.

HUCKABEE: At a media avail in South Carolina yesterday, Huckabee said, per NBC's Lauren Appelbaum, "We've certainly exceeded all of the expectations we've had everywhere we've been since the Iowa straw poll. People are realizing the campaign is alive. It has momentum. We've separated from the pack. And that's evident not only by the crowds that are coming, but also by hits to the website, by people who are scheduling fundraising events, by the fact that people are giving money to the campaign that have been sort of sitting back and waiting until now."

The Boston Globe has kind words for Huckabee on his attention to arts and music education. "Regardless of how the Republican presidential contest plays out, Huckabee is right to bring attention to art and music. The right side of the brain is a terrible thing to waste."

ROMNEY: The Washington Post: "Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney said this week that as president he would allow individual states to keep abortion legal, two weeks after telling a national television audience that he supports a constitutional amendment to ban the procedure nationwide… The two very different statements reflect the challenge for Romney, who has reinvented himself as a champion of the antiabortion movement in recent years and is seeking to become the conservative alternative to former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani in the battle for the Republican presidential nomination."

A day before Romney gives a major health-care policy speech, the Boston Globe writes in a staff editorial that he has "health care amnesia." "As he campaigns for the Republican presidential nomination, Romney makes the law seem like a triumph of free-market economics… There was a little bit of that in the final law, but what really makes it work is a system of government subsidies and regulation." The paper adds: "The state intervened to tame the cruelties of the free market." 
 
Romney discussed with the AP that movie that's coming out next week about the Mountain Meadows Massacre. He shrugged it off, saying, "There are bad people in any church and it's true of members of my church, too."

THOMPSON: "His image has been cultivated as much by Hollywood as by his time as a real-life Republican senator in Washington," the AP writes. "While many have used acting to launch political careers, including President Reagan and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, few have made the transition from an acting career to a political career and back again."

Could George Mitchell be asked to come in and create a compromise on the primary calendar? Believe it or not, it's one semi-serious idea floating around Democrats.
In a statement yesterday, Bill Richardson joined with Joe Biden to hint that he might skip Michigan, should the state go ahead with a January 15 primary.

Edwards, in an interview with the AP, was asked about the shifting calendar. He said "he won't let his party's efforts to control the primary calendar dictate where he campaigns. "I'm running a national campaign, so I'm going to campaign in the states that are participating in the process," Edwards said in a separate interview. "My job is not to make the rules, my job is to run."

The campaign later clarified to the AP that Edwards would only campaign in states sanctioned by the DNC but didn't rule out breaking that pledge.

By the way, perhaps in an attempt to stop other states from moving up, DNC chairman Howard Dean is telling reporters he thinks the nomination won't be decided until March. Does Dean REALLY believe that, or is he hoping that Michigan state legislators believe it so they won't mess up the calendar any more than they already have.

MySpace and MTV have teamed up to sponsor a series of presidential forums.

A new Quinnipiac University poll of Pennsylvania voters finds Clinton's lead over Obama and Edwards increasing big time. The poll still includes Al Gore for some odd reason. But the bottom line: Clinton is over 40% in the primary match-up. Clinton is also the only Dem candidate to lead every single major GOP candidate. Giuliani leads both Obama and Edwards in match-ups, but trails Clinton. Giuliani leads the GOP primary match-up by a large margin. By the way, of ALL the 2008 candidates, Giuliani has the best fav-unfav rating.

Start your tongues a-wagging... Jim Webb makes his first appearance in New Hampshire as a US senator on October 20 as the keynote speaker for the state Democrats' J-J dinner. Could this be an audition for Webb as a potential running mate?