From NBC's Joel Seidman
Candidate-in-waiting Fred Thompson, in another online blog posting on issues close to conservatives' hearts and minds, has now invoked the spirit of an unusual and long-lost accused Salem witch. That witch -- who was caught up in the Salem witch hunt some 300 years ago -- just happens to be a relative of a current Bush judicial nominee who is having trouble getting through Patrick Leahy's Judiciary Committee.

In his blog on "Imwithfred.com," Thompson recalls Judge Leslie Southwick's relative, Rebecca Nurse, who was hanged July 19, 1692. Thompson says Southwick, "is suffering through a witch hunt of a more modern variety" The judge has been nominated to fill a long-standing vacancy on the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. And Senate Democrats are trying to put the kibosh on Southwick.

Democrats question Southwick's civil- and human-rights record, which they say make him unfit for a lifetime appointment to the New Orleans-based 5th U.S. Circuit. Republicans have argued, however, that Southwick has an exemplary record and that Democrats are fabricating excuses to oppose him.

Thompson laments, "Judge Southwick is just the latest in a long line of nominees for that bench to be delayed." And he adds, "Judge Southwick's reward for being a qualified judge, and by all accounts a good citizen, is a Senatorial inquisition meant to besmirch his professional and personal reputation."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro

Just nine days before the Ames straw poll, the fiscally conservative Club for Growth is up with a potentially damaging attack ad on Huckabee in Iowa. The ad paints the former Arkansas governor as a "tax-and-spend" liberal and compares him to Bill Clinton."Who is that liberal tax and spend Arkansas Governor?" the announcer asks as Wild West-style piano music plays and cards on an easel are flipped to the floor. "Bill Clinton? No. It's Mike Huckabee"

The ad is already running on cable and will start running on network affiliates on Sunday -- the day of the ABC Republican Iowa forum. It is an $85,000 buy that will run through Aug. 10th -- the day before the straw poll. 

Full transcript:
Announcer: There once was a governor from Hope, Arkansas, who raised taxes like there was no tomorrow.

Higher sales taxes, gas taxes, grocery taxes, even higher taxes on nursing home beds.

Raised spending by 50 percent too.

Who is that liberal tax and spend Arkansas Governor?

Bill Clinton? No. It's Mike Huckabee.

He even wants to tax the Internet too.

Tell Mike Huckabee to give lower taxes a try.

Brownback Girl

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Tragedy In Minnesota: The collapse of the bridge in Minnesota yesterday -- including the deaths and injuries it caused -- is obviously putting political news on the backburner. A reminder, however, that the Twin Cities will host the 2008 Republican National Convention next year. Also, in a meeting with a slew of national reporters two weeks ago, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) was lamenting the fact that the country's infrastructure issues weren't rising to be part of the national debate either in Congress or on the presidential campaign trail. Look for every major metro area to have its own "could our bridge/tunnel be next?" stories, which could have a ripple effect politically. President Bush will have his first opportunity to comment on the tragedy when he makes a statement at 11:00 am ET after meeting with his Cabinet.

*** Hillary The Electable:

When Clinton announced her presidential bid back in January -- "And I'm in to win" -- the biggest question surrounding her candidacy was whether she could win, especially in a general election. In the nearly seven months since, however, those doubts have been erased due in large part to a campaign and candidate focused on the general election. The latest NBC/WSJ poll shows her not only leading Obama by 21 points, but also Giuliani by six points in a potential general election match-up. An electable and inevitable Hillary only seems to strengthen her chances of winning the Democratic nomination. But what happens if the Democratic race turns into a true primary campaign that's focused on red-meat Democratic issues? Clinton has said that the US is safer since 9/11, but only 27% of Democratic primary voters agree with that view. What happens when the electable candidate's current and past views don't mesh with her party's? For the Clinton camp, though, this is a good problem to have.

*** Set To Run The Table? Democrats aren't just in good shape for the presidential election. Per the poll, the Democratic Party has huge advantages over the Republican Party when it comes to Iraq, health care, gas prices, education, and even traditionally GOP issues like taxes and the deficit. "These are sobering numbers for the Republican brand," says GOP pollster Neil Newhouse, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart. Republicans still have advantages when it comes to terrorism, values, and homeland security -- but those numbers are down considerably from a few years ago.

*** An Opening For Obama? Outside the horserace and the party scores, the most interesting finding in the poll is the lack of faith in American institutions. Just 27% say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence in religious leaders and organizations; just 18% say that of the media; just 16% say that of the federal government; and just 14% say that of Congress. "Americans' confidence is most institutions is really in the cellar," says Hart. "It is just amazing." What's also amazing is why someone like Obama with his audacity of hope -- or anyone else for that matter -- hasn't capitalized on this disillusionment. It's also a potential obstacle for Clinton: At the end of the day, will pessimistic voters looking for change turn to someone seen as part of the Establishment?
 
*** Tough Guy (And Gal): Speaking of Obama, if his plan was to become the center of attention yesterday with is terrorism speech, then he should declare mission accomplished. His call to take action inside Pakistan even without that country's consent created buzz -- both positive and negative -- but do note that both Clinton and Edwards agreed with him on that point. Missing in much of the coverage was the one statement Obama made that seemed to be an attempt to create a new fissure with Clinton: that we're less safe now than before 9/11. Clinton, meanwhile, gets another opportunity to rekindle her spat with the Pentagon in a closed Armed Services briefing on the drawdown of U.S. forces in Iraq, and then in a news conference later with John Kerry.

*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Biden continues to promote his new book; Edwards holds a media avail in LA to discuss global warming; Giuliani meets with supporters in New Jersey; Huckabee campaigns in Iowa; McCain raises money in Seattle; Romney and Richardson hit Iowa; as does Michelle Obama, who is stumping for her husband.
 
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 9 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 32 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 79 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 96 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 107 days
Countdown to Iowa: 164 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 186 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 460 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 537 days

The Washington Post's Balz notes, "The muscular speech appeared aimed at inoculating him from criticism that he lacks the toughness to lead the country in a post-9/11 world, while attempting to show that an Obama presidency would herald an important shift in the United States' approach to the world, particularly the Middle East and nearby Asian nations."

The New York Times: "The speech offered a broader glimpse into Mr. Obama's world view. If elected, he said, he would seek out an Islamic audience in the first 100 days of his administration to 'redefine our struggle' and open 'America Houses' across the Islamic world to improve a tarnished image of the United States."

Tom Edsall in the Huffington Post says this speech was just "another" example of Obama breaking with Dem Party orthodoxy. "Although little noticed, Obama has been challenging influential Democratic primary constituencies at a rate of about once a month, building what now is a significant record of dissent from key party factions. He has taken on civil rights groups, the National Education Association, and the powerful lobby opposed to any changes in Social Security benefits."

Obama: We're less safe than before 9/11

"Obama's foreign policy advisers said they have been working on the speech for weeks, though it follows a disagreement that started last week with Clinton."

The Los Angeles Times reminds us that "after a Democratic debate in April, some political observers faulted Obama for failing to answer forcefully enough when asked what he would do as president if the U.S. again fell victim to a terrorist attack. While Clinton said she would strike back, Obama, in his first answer, said he would check the country's emergency preparedness and consult with other nations. But Obama aides and advisors denied that the speech Wednesday was an attempt to make up for that response."

The Politico's Smith writes, "there's a third-way quality to his speech. He's not a dove or a hawk, but a dove in Iraq and a hawk in Afghanistan. (This is, to be fair, the position of a lot of Democrats.) It mirrors his attempt to get beyond partisanship, and the usual categories. And, in other circumstances, it might warm Bill Clinton's heart."

Analyst Stu Rothenberg wondered if Obama's speech would cause him some problems on the left: "It's tough to criticize the Bush administration for unilateralism in Iraq, then say you'd be unilateral in Pakistan," he said. "I'm wondering if some people are going to jump on him."

Quad City Times headline: "Obama's hawkish speech doesn't thrill local Democrats."

It seems candidates on both sides decided to comment… McCain "said Sen. Barack Obama's threat to use military force to get rid of terrorists in Pakistan shows he does not understand the complexities of the region. McCain said the situation in Pakistan is 'very delicate,' since the country's leader, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, is an American ally with a tenuous hold on power. The Arizona senator said a direct American attack on the country could cause a backlash that might topple Musharraf."

"The speech drew criticism from presidential campaign rivals Sen. Chris Dodd and Sen. Joe Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee."

Bill Richardson, in a telephone interview, said that Obama's threat, if acted upon, could inflame the entire Muslim world. "'My international experience tells me that we should address this issue with tough diplomacy first with Musharraf and then leave the military option as a last resort,' he said."

Interestingly, one candidate who seemed to find agreement with Obama was Clinton. "Clinton said in a radio interview later in the day that she also would not hesitate to attack Al Qaeda targets on Pakistani territory. 'If we had actionable intelligence that Osama bin Laden or other high-value targets were in Pakistan I would ensure that they were targeted and killed or captured. And that will be my highest priority because they pose the highest threat to America,' Clinton told American Urban Radio Networks."

Edwards seemed to agree with him, too. "'We have a responsibility to go find al Qaeda and (Osama) bin Laden wherever they operate,' Edwards said after a fundraiser in San Francisco, appearing to agree with Obama's call during a major foreign policy speech in Washington for possible U.S. military action in Pakistan against terrorists hiding there. Edwards said that if Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf can't control such operatives, 'we have to do it.'"

Bush's approval rating is 31% (up two points since June); just 19% think the country is in the right direction; and 62% don't think victory in Iraq is possible. In addition, only 37% believe the US should wait until November to determine whether the surge in Iraq is working, compared with 55% who believe that making that judgment in September is sufficient. For more on the poll, click here.

Here is the Wall Street Journal's take on the poll: "More than two-thirds of Americans believe the U.S. economy is either in recession now or will be in the next year… That assessment comes despite the fact the economy has experienced sustained growth with low inflation and unemployment and generally rising stock values ever since the recession that ended early in President Bush's tenure."

And what has happened to Americans sports? Only 14% say they have a great deal or quite a bit of confidence in professional sports. Sixty-two percent say the recent NBA referee gambling scandal is more widespread in professional sports. And get this -- just 5% view Michael Vick favorably, compared with 44% who view him negatively.

GIULIANI:

The New York Times takes a look at the close relationship between Giuliani and Fox News chair Roger Ailes. "Now these allies and friends find themselves on largely uncharted political turf. Mr. Giuliani, 63, is a leading Republican candidate for president. Mr. Ailes, 67, is head of Fox News, the pre-eminent media outlet for likely voters in a Republican primary… Whether their friendship would ever affect coverage — Fox insists that it has not and will not — it is nonetheless the sort of relationship that other campaigns have noted, though none wanted to speak publicly for fear of offending the station."

More: "This year through July 15, Mr. Giuliani appeared for 115 minutes in interviews on Fox, according to The Hotline, the political journal. More than half of those minutes, 78, were spent with Mr. Hannity, co-host of the 'Hannity & Colmes' talk show. Mr. Hannity, a conservative who has spoken of his admiration for Mr. Giuliani, makes his own decisions about bookings, a spokeswoman said.

"Mr. Giuliani's on-air time on Fox was 25 percent greater than that of his Republican competitor Mitt Romney, and nearly double that of Senator John McCain of Arizona. Fred D. Thompson, who has yet to formally announce his candidacy, came in second to Mr. Giuliani with 101 minutes of Fox interviews."

Factcheck.org put its researchers on the IAFF video that accuses Giuliani of putting firefighters at risk during 9/11. On the issue of the firefighter deaths, factcheck.org said the union "plays loose with the facts." But it agrees that "then-Mayor Giuliani failed to provide FDNY emergency radios that functioned properly."

Page Six reports that Giuliani raked in about $350,000 at a Greenwich, CT fundraiser. "Giuliani good-naturedly griped about the hated Red Sox picking up [pitcher Eric] Gagne before launching into a 40-minute speech at Villa Leoncelli, the mansion of real estate mogul Joe Beninati, to more than 100 donors including hedge fund wizard Cliff Asness of AQR Capital and Doug Korn of Bear Stearns Merchant Banking."

Also yesterday, the campaign announced the hiring of 8 more field reps for California. The campaign already has more than a dozen staffers in the biggest state holding a primary on Tsunami Tuesday.

MCCAIN:

The AP does a "what's the campaign trail like now" for McCain since he restructured (translation: downsized) his campaign. Apparently last week, he left an event in a car with a flat tire. McCain "travels without staff or with a single aide and rarely with national media crews. Last week, he arrived in Manchester, N.H., on a commercial flight. He carried his own bags through the airport and his top two aides in the state drove him to his hotel. The entire event was captured for local television… McCain's loss of the trappings of a top-tier candidate come at a cost. On Monday, he missed a fundraising breakfast in Pittsburgh because his commercial flight was canceled. He called in by speakerphone to the 30 supporters in a hotel conference room."

ROMNEY:

Here's an interesting way for the former governor to show distance with the Bush Administration: "Romney complained Wednesday that one of the Bush administration's chief domestic security accomplishments - the Department of Homeland Security - is inefficient and requires major restructuring." At a New Hampshire stop yesterday, "Romney said the department does some things well, but it has challenges rooted in the fact that it is made up of different agencies 'stuck in one big bureaucracy.'" Romney also didn't limit his criticism to homeland security. Separately, "Saying he supports an expanded private health insurance system instead of one run by the government, Romney added: 'The last thing I want is the guys managing the Katrina cleanup managing my health care system.'"

In fact, the mention of Katrina is something that's much more rare on the GOP side of this campaign than on the Dem side. "If he were elected president, Romney told the audience of 75 that he would work to restore the region. "'At this stage, we would continue to invest to return New Orleans and a major portion of our country to economic viability and livability,' Romney said."

F. THOMPSON:

Bob Novak writes on the influence Jeri Thompson has on the fledgling campaign. Apparently at a fundraiser earlier this week, Thompson jokingly introduced his wife as "my campaign manager." More Novak: "As the actor-lawyer-politician nears his long-awaited official announcement, Mrs. Thompson is slurred as a 'trophy wife' -- privately by her husband's opponents for the Republican nomination and publicly by the media. Even Thompson supporters grumble that Jeri, 40, is too alluring, that she should modify the way she dresses and that, even then, she should not practice her skills as a professional political operative on behalf of her 64-year-old husband."  But Novak defends her credentials and notes she'll be an 'asset, not a liability.'"

CLINTON:

The campaign nabbed a major New Hampshire endorsement yesterday -- House Speaker Terie Norelli, who after the '06 Dem landslide in the state became the first Dem House speaker in over 70 years (and just the second woman speaker ever). In her spat with the Pentagon, Clinton "struck back" at Cheney and President Bush "in an e-mail asking supporters to sign a letter to Bush," the Boston Globe writes. "It's the administration that's playing politics, she wrote." 
 
The New York Daily News adds: "Clinton vowed to go over Cheney's head to get a clarification from President Bush on whether he accepts congressional oversight of his Iraq policy."

EDWARDS: Though Edwards continues to run a distant third (behind Clinton and Obama) in the latest NBC News/WSJ Poll, analyst Stu Rothenberg tells NBC's Kevin Corke that the poll isn't necessarily bad news for Edwards. "It certainly is not ideal and sure he'd like to be raising more money, but it is not about national polls -- it is all about Iowa. If Edwards wins there, it will change the national race." 

Speaking of Iowa, Corke says Edwards returns there on August 5th and 6th to discuss workers' rights and lay out his new vision for trade in a major policy address.

In California yesterday, NBC's Lauren Appelbaum notes, Edwards was asked about Giuliani's comment that he and Clinton and Obama don't understand the capitalist system and are ashamed to be rich.  "I think he's dead wrong," Edwards shot back. "What Giuliani is, is George Bush on steroids. Giuliani, Romney, and the rest of the Republicans who are running for the nomination are going to give the country four more years of crony capitalism, which is exactly what we have now."

Edwards also gets some hip coverage from the Rolling Stone today. "Edwards is awesome on the stump. He knows how to work a crowd into a lather. Today's event, in a hot, dark SoMa night club was packed to the gills, and you'd have thought it was Bono up on that stage. People were that into it."

OBAMA: The Salt Lake Tribune previews Obama's very low-key visit to Utah this weekend. And Obama is getting some local Illinois grief.

A New York Times analysis looks at the two starkly different views of Iraq. "With a promised progress report from the top American commander in Iraq now just six weeks away, partisans on both sides of the debate in Washington are searching desperately for evidence to bolster their judgments about the success or failure of the strategy that the Bush administration calls a 'surge.' The war's staunchest supporters have seized on the reduced death toll in July for American troops as a sign that an influx of troops is dampening sectarian violence in the country."

More: "Yet even before the car bombings on Wednesday, opponents of the war were citing reports that the Iraqi civilian deaths were on the rise — a fact they say belies any notion that the White House strategy is having its intended effect of protecting the Iraqi population."

Per NBC's Ken Strickland, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales says he "may have created confusion" in his testimony before Congress about the Terrorist Survielliance Program. In a letter to Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Pat Leahy, Gonzales wrote: "I am deeply concerned with suggestions that my testimony was misleading, and am determined to address any such impression."

The Washington Post: "In the letter, Gonzales confirms that there was 'serious disagreement' within the Justice Department about the NSA activities that were ordered by President Bush in late 2001. But as he has testified before, Gonzales also said there was no such disagreement about the NSA's warrantless wiretapping program. The letter acknowledges, however, that even that part of the NSA's activities -- later known as the Terrorist Surveillance Program -- prompted 'intense deliberations' within the Justice Department in 2004. Gonzales acknowledged that his previous statements 'may have created confusion,' especially for lawmakers and others who refer to all the activities as 'a single NSA "program."'"

The same article notes that the White House "formally directed senior adviser Karl Rove not to cooperate with a Senate probe into the firing of U.S. attorneys… White House counsel Fred F. Fielding wrote to the committee that the decision was rooted in the president's determination to protect 'the ability of future Presidents to ensure that the Executive's decisions reflect and benefit from the candid exchange of informed and diverse viewpoints.'"

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Not to be outdone or overshadowed by Obama on foreign policy, Biden, Dodd and Richardson all said they were unimpressed by Obama's speech today on counter terrorism.

"Look, the truth is the four major things he called for, well, hell that's what I called for," Biden said today on MSNBC's Hardball, echoing comments he made earlier in the day at an event promoting his book at the National Press Club. Biden added, "I'm glad he's talking about these things," but they are things that are either already being done or in the works, and he cited legislation he wrote with Republican Sens. Dick Lugar and Chuck Hagel.

Dodd was even more biting in a released statement, saying: "Frankly, I am not sure what Barack is calling for in his speech this morning. But it is dangerous and irresponsible to leave even the impression the United States would needlessly and publicly provoke a nuclear power."

Richardson played up his experience, said he has already talked about refocusing on al Qaeda and the Taliban and added, "I am glad that Senator Obama agrees with me."

Is Clinton far behind with a hit of her own?

NOTE: Biden also said on Hardball that he likes Sens. Clinton, Dodd and Richardson, but "I don't know Barack as well and don't know John Edwards as well."

**** UPDATE **** NBC's Lauren Appelbaum reports that Edwards, on the other hand, agreed with Obama, though admitted he didn't watch the speech or see a transcript.

"My belief is that we have a responsibility to find bin Laden and al Qaeda wherever they operate," Edwards said on camera. "I think we need to maximize pressure on Musharraf and the Pakistani government. If they can't do the job, then we have to do it."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira

A minor tidbit: It turns out that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her husband Paul broke bread last night at the White House with President Bush and his wife, Laura.The evening began with a one-on-one meeting between the president and the speaker, after which they were joined for dinner by their spouses, according to Pelosi. Pelosi tells us that it is important to have a "good rapport" with the president -- and in fact, she says, that is exactly what they have.

It was the first time that the two couples had gotten together, according to Pelosi.

From NBC's Carrie Dann
An online chat, with pre-screened questions and carefully typed responses, is hardly a medium that lends itself to candid moments or unexpected breaking news. But despite their necessarily scripted content, the online forums periodically touted by the '08 campaigns may be worth a watchful eye, precisely because they offer the unhindered opportunity for the campaigns to push the fundamentals of their candidate's message.
 
Take today's webchat with John Avlon, deputy director of policy and speechwriter for Giuliani. The questions posed to Avlon  (example: "Would Rudy use Reagan's model of foreign policy?") were hardly hardballs, allowing responses that were brief and unrelentingly on-message. Among the Giuliani catchphrases plugged in Avlon's responses: "solve problems from our strengths not our weaknesses," "executive experience;" empowering indviduals;" and the inescapable Reagan shoutout -- "peace through strength."
 
That's not to say that there aren't interesting kinks to be found between the sheets of boilerplate. One participant who inquired about Giuliani's plan to rebuild New Orleans received a fairly generic response focused on "strengthening our infrastructure," which begs the question of how the mayor HAS addressed Gulf Coast recovery. And one parallel drawn by Avlon between his boss and GOP untouchable Ronald Reagan -- "a rejection of moral relativism" -- could invite analysis by socially conservative voters who accuse Giuliani of embodying a relativist position on abortion.

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum, Diamaris Welch, and Carly Zakin
After a more than weeklong diplomacy spat with Hillary Clinton, Obama laid out a five-step plan on counter terrorism and took the opportunity to make blatant attacks at President Bush's policy and more veiled attacks at Clinton. His five steps include: (1) get out of Iraq and refocus the battle in Afghanistan and Pakistan; (2) build partnerships with other countries to help capture and kill terrorists; (3) curb support for extremism; (4) stop compromising America's values; and (5) secure a more resilient homeland.
 
In addition to moving some troops from Iraq to Afghanistan and Pakistan, he called for two additional brigades to be deployed to Afghanistan and to provide the country with non-military aid. In Pakistan, he promised conditional aid, if the leadership were to close down al Qaeda training camps, evict foreign fighters, and keep Pakistan from becoming a "staging area for attacks in Afghanistan" -- challenging President Pervez Musharraf to help capture Al Qaeda leaders.

Obama: We're less safe than before 9/11

 
"There are terrorists holed up in those mountains who murdered 3,000 Americans," Obama said. "They are plotting to strike again. It was a terrible mistake to fail to act when we had a chance to take out an al Qaeda leadership meeting in 2005. If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf will not act, we will."
 
Clinton called Obama "naïve" on foreign policy, but he may have alleviated some doubts today. Former Iraq Study Group co-chairman Lee Hamilton introduced Obama and was asked after the speech if he heard anything that he would consider naïve. With a wry smile, Hamilton simply said, "I don't think so."
 
Obama remained on the offensive. Obama took a slight dig at Clinton -- without saying her name -- and again used the opportunity to align Clinton's position on foreign policy with President Bush's. He attacked a statement Clinton made in June that America "is safer" today than it was before 9/11 in saying, "Because of a war in Iraq that should never have been authorized and should never have been waged, we are now less safe than we were before 9/11."
 
Obama also said that after 9/11, America "had the might and moral-suasion that was the legacy of generations of Americans." He talked about the swinging pendulum known as "the tide of history" turning back toward hope, but he said America failed to use this unity for good and failed in Afghanistan, the true front of the war on terror. He also took the opportunity to once again remind us he opposed the war in Iraq from the beginning, calling it "a dumb war, a rash war" and blamed the President and Congress for American involvement in the country.
 
"What could have been a call to a generation has become an excuse for unchecked presidential power," Obama said. "A tragedy that united us was turned into a political wedge issue used to divide us. By refusing to end the war in Iraq, President Bush is giving the terrorists what they really want, and what the Congress voted to give them in 2002: a U.S. occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
As we reported in First Read this morning, Brownback -- who has been perhaps the sharpest attacker of the rest of the GOP field in the run up to the Ames straw poll -- called on Huckabee to apologize for what Brownback said were anti-Catholic e-mails sent by Huckabee supporter the Rev. Tim Rude. Huckabee just issued a statement saying he is "glad" Rude issued an apology, but stopped short of offering an explicit apology of his own. He added, "As believers, we don't have time to fight each other."

**** UPDATE **** The Brownback campaign sent out another e-mail an hour and a half after Huckabee's statement, still calling for an apology from Huckabee. They say they saw Huckabee's remarks last night, don't consider it an apology and think the Huckabee campaign is "sidestepping the issue."

Huckabee's statement "said he's glad Rude apologized, not that Governor Huckabee or his campaign apologizes," a Brownback campaign spokesman said. "Our question is, Governor Huckabee himself, does he think what Pastor Rude himself says was wrong? Do they agree that the substance of his remarks were prejudiced, anti-Catholic or inappropriate?"

Here's the Huckabee statement:

"We are glad that Rev. Rude issued an apology and clarification for his comments. They were not authorized by, disseminated by, approved by, or condoned by the campaign. Our campaign enjoys strong support from Catholics as well as evangelicals, and for that matter, from people whose support is not faith-based at all. I have spoken in Catholic churches and maintained a strong relationship with Christian brothers and sisters from many denominations.
 
"While I'm deeply grateful that many people of faith support me because they know I represent views compatible with theirs, I know that there are many others who support me because of an effective record of achieving results. Either way, I'm grateful for the support.
 
"I consider Sam Brownback a Christian brother and know that he feels likewise toward me. Like Senator Brownback, several key members of my staff are Roman Catholic. As believers, we don't have time to fight each other. We need to focus on having a servant's spirit and bringing hope to those who have given up."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin 
*** Hillary's Surge: As we've said before, Hillary Clinton has had quite a run in the presidential campaign so far. And the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll backs that up. She now has a 21-point lead over Obama in the Democratic horserace (43%-22%) -- up from her 14-point lead back in June (39%-25%) and her five-point lead in April (36%-31%). In addition, she leads Giuliani in a potential general election match-up, 47%-41%, when those numbers were essentially reversed back in March. And in this latest poll, a whopping 74% say that at least 24 straight years of Bushes and Clintons in the White House won't be much of a consideration when they vote. 

*** Positives And Negatives: Another question in the poll shines light on what has worked for Clinton -- and what remain her potential problems. By a 53%-22% score, respondents say they feel positive about her experience and competence; by 44%-29%, they feel positive about her values and character; and by 42%-28%, they feel positive that Bill Clinton is her husband. But then the obstacles appear: By a 39%-30% margin, they feel positive about her warmth and compassion; by 38%-31%, they feel positive about her personality and style; and by just 33%-32%, they feel positive about her positions on the issues. And speaking of the issues, 46% view her as a liberal versus 35% who see her as a moderate.

Video: Hillary Clinton leads Democrats at 43%

*** More, More, More: That's just a tiny glimpse into the new NBC/WSJ poll that comes out today. For more on the survey -- which has plenty of questions on the 2008 presidential race, Iraq, the economy, and other issues (like Michael Vick!) -- tune into NBC Nightly News or click onto MSNBC.com at 6:30 pm ET.

*** Obama As Jack Bauer? The biggest benefit for the Clinton camp in the new NBC/WSJ poll is that the chattering class will use the results to bolster the idea that Obama has been stagnant -- at least nationally. But the candidate has some good news to tout in a recent New Hampshire poll. Also, Obama gives a counterterrorism speech this morning that puts him in the political spotlight. In the speech, per excerpts, he implicitly counters an argument that Clinton made in June: that America is safer today than it was before 9/11. "Because of a war in Iraq that should never have been authorized and should never have been waged, we are now less safe than we were before 9/11." Another opportunity to make Clinton's position seem like the Bush position? Obama, moreover, will also call for deploying at least two additional brigades to Afghanistan (yet stresses that the solution there is also political and economic). And he challenges Pakistan to make progress in closing the terrorist camps in that country. "If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won't act, we will."

*** What's Worse: A $400 Haircut -- Or This? Mayor Bloomberg, welcome to presidential scrutiny! The New York Times has one of those stories that could haunt the candidate-to-be for longer than some think (and could have more legs than any other story today). Bloomberg is driven via SUV to a specific subway stop so he can take an express to City Hall. "On mornings that he takes the subway from home, Mr. Bloomberg is picked up at his Upper East Side town house by a pair of king-size Chevrolet Suburbans. The mayor is driven 22 blocks to the subway station at 59th Street and Lexington Avenue, where he can board an express train to City Hall. His drivers zip past his neighborhood station, a local subway stop a five-minute walk away. That means Mr. Bloomberg -- whose much-discussed subway rides have become an indelible component of his public image -- spends a quarter of his ostensibly subterranean commute in an S.U.V."

*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Clinton is in DC; Dodd appears on FOX's O'Reilly Factor; Edwards, in California, speaks in the Silicon Valley Leadership Group's "Road to the White House" speaker series and then raises money in San Francisco; Kucinich is in DC; Huckabee is in Iowa; McCain holds a town hall in Palo Alto, CA; Richardson fundraises money in New Mexico; Romney campaigns in New Hampshire; and Fred Thompson raises money in California.
 
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 10 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 33 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 80 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 97 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 108 days
Countdown to Iowa: 165 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 187 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 461 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 538 days

The battle among the second- and third-tier Republicans for coveted top spots in the Ames Straw poll is getting intense. Yesterday, Brownback accused Huckabee's campaign of sending an anti-Catholic email to key Iowa Republicans. "'I know Senator Brownback converted to Roman Catholicism in 2002,' the Rev. Tim Rude, pastor of Walnut Creek Community Church, wrote in the e-mail. 'Frankly, as a recovering Catholic myself, that is all I need to know about his discernment when compared to the governor's.' In the e-mail, Rude calls Huckabee 'one of us.' Rude apologized Tuesday, saying he never meant to sound critical of Catholicism. Brownback, a Methodist until he converted, said through a spokesman that Huckabee should apologize."

BROWNBACK:

Dressed in a bright green polo and khaki vest, Brownback took up a firearm at a shooting range yesterday in Ames, Iowa, NBC's Lauren Appelbaum reports. He shot the firearm three times, asking those in attendance if he was shooting too low or high. He dodged a question on how he is different from the rest of the Republican candidates on the 2nd Amendment. "As I stated, I don't know. I don't know their positions on 2nd Amendment," he said. "I know mine. I know my ratings. I know that I've had 4,500 votes. Within those, there have been some 2nd Amendment votes, and I received an A rating on a lifetime basis. I just don't know the other candidates' positions."

The Des Moines Register reports that Brownback believes other candidates will come around to a three-state solution plan for Iraq. Also, don't miss the paper's photo of Brownback at the firing range (that isn't your typical firearm he's holding).

GIULIANI: The Washington Post finds Giuliani fairly popular at a key New Hampshire diner. As for takes on his health plan rolled out yesterday, Newsday writes, "Giuliani's plan also sidesteps the issue dominating the Democratic debate over health care -- how to cover all or nearly all of the 47 million uninsured Americans. In Giuliani's words, that's up to the marketplace, not a government 'nanny state' -- and he blasted Democratic proposals to subsidize coverage with tax increases as European-style "socialist" medicine that could bankrupt government."

The New York Post calls Giuliani's health-care proposal "do it yourself." It includes a $15,000 tax deduction to families who buy their own insurance and $7,500 for individuals.

The Manchester Union Leader writes, "Giuliani offered the broad outline of his plan but his campaign did not provide many specifics" and said that he would not have cost numbers or be able to tell how many uninsured the plan would help for "two or three months."

In the New York Observer, GOP analyst Jennifer Rubin argues that Giuliani is starting to find some distance from Bush. "His task, though, is a tricky one: he has to differentiate himself from a failing president without alienating a conservative base already uneasy about his liberal stand on abortion. To some degree, Mr. Giuliani has succeeded in putting some distance between himself and the administration, in the eyes of primary voters, by focusing on a few specific policy issues." The issues: immigration, spending, and now even Iraq.

ROMNEY: Per the Boston Globe's Political Intelligence blog, Romney has "devised a five-headed Democratic monster to try to paint the opposing party as uniformly unsupportive of American troops."

F. THOMPSON: Coverage of Thompson's $3.5 million haul focuses on the candidate coming up short of a $5 million goal. The irony of this is that the haul isn't that bad -- but that the campaign had set its own goal and leaked it publicly, and so they are being held to their own standard. About $750,000 was raised online.

More nuggets from GOP analyst Jennifer Rubin: "Most clearly those who challenge whether he is legitimately 'testing the waters' (and not operating a campaign in disguise) will question if that is the case: 1) why brag about a burn rate (18%); 2) why accept donations above the $2,300 limit for the primaries (i.e. if you are 'testing' you are determining viability and you shouldn't be storing away money for the primary, let alone the general election); and 3) were 10 staffers paid a total of  $106K (including payroll taxes) really just working on testing the waters activities?"

CLINTON:

Salon's Scherer has an interesting piece about how quick Republicans are to assume Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. In fact, the GOP has done more to feed the inevitability factor about Clinton than anyone in the Democratic Party. "The Republican focus on Clinton may say more about the Republican Party than it does about her inevitability as the Democratic nominee. Though she polls better nationally than her Democratic rivals, she currently trails slightly in most Iowa caucus polls to John Edwards, and she has been surprisingly outstripped in fundraising by Barack Obama. But this has not stopped Republicans from referring regularly to the Democratic Party as a shell organization at the beck and command of the Clinton family, even if that's a flimsy caricature at best."

Look for the candidate to renew her feud with the Pentagon over an Iraq withdrawal plan. During an interview with Vice President Cheney on "Larry King Live," the veep "said the scathing missive to Clinton from Pentagon policy chief Eric Edelman was a 'good letter.' Last Friday, Gates said Edelman's letter had led the debate over redeployment 'astray' and that discussion of the issue was appropriate. Clinton likely will send Bush a letter of complaint, a source close to the senator said.

Clinton's Senate spokesman emailed this response yesterday to NBC: "… Senator Clinton asked a simple yet serious question regarding the contingency planning for the redeployment of U.S. troops from Iraq. In response, she was politically attacked by Under Secretary of Defense Eric Edelman who impugned her patriotism and suggested that congressional oversight emboldens our enemies. To clarify the Under Secretary's remarks, Defense Secretary Robert Gates took a conciliatory tone and told Senator Clinton that he regretted that 'this important discussion went astray' and reaffirmed Congress's role in overseeing the administration. Earlier today, however, Vice President Dick Cheney said he agreed with Under Secretary Edelman, not Secretary Gates, and called the Under Secretary's political attack a 'good letter.' It seems the right hand doesn't know what the far-right hand is doing.  Senator Clinton calls on President Bush to set the record straight."

DODD: The campaign issued a press release announcing Dodd's appearance tonight on O'Reilly, noting: 1) that it comes in advance of this weekend's YearlyKos convention; 2) that he will personally respond to O'Reilly's attacks on the liberal blog DailyKos; and 3) that in the process, he'll be the first presidential candidate to defend the liberal blogosphere.

EDWARDS:

While Clinton supporters are fond of calling Obama this year's Howard Dean, the New York Times notes that it may be Edwards who more closely resembles Dean. Adam Nagourney writes: "These days the Edwards campaign has taken on the appearance of Dean 2.0, and listening to Mr. Edwards is often akin to reading the postings on an angry blog."  What's also revealing in the piece is more evidence that Mrs. Edwards was behind the decision to bring on Joe Trippi to take more control of the campaign. Per the AP, Edwards said yesterday that "the Bush administration's plan to sell $20 billion worth of weapons to friendly Arab states amounted to a foreign policy of convenience and he will take a tougher stance with Saudi Arabia if elected president."

OBAMA: Here are more excerpts from Obama's counterterrorism speech this morning: "The President would have us believe that every bomb in Baghdad is part of al Qaeda's war against us, not an Iraqi civil war. He elevates al Qaeda in Iraq – which didn't exist before our invasion – and overlooks the people who hit us on 9/11, who are training new recruits in Pakistan. He lumps together groups with very different goals: al Qaeda and Iran, Shiite militias and Sunni insurgents. He confuses our mission."

"When I am President, we will wage the war that has to be won, with a comprehensive strategy with five elements: getting out of Iraq and on to the right battlefield in Afghanistan and Pakistan; developing the capabilities and partnerships we need to take out the terrorists and the world's most deadly weapons; engaging the world to dry up support for terror and extremism; restoring our values; and securing a more resilient homeland."

Prebutting his speech, the RNC this morning issued a press release with this headline: "Obama's Safety Dance: Obama to give speech on the war on terror; attempts to dance around his weak record on national security issues."

Despite the bad news for Obama in the new NBC/WSJ poll, a new poll by New Hampshire-based ARG has him on the move in the Granite State. Meanwhile, on the GOP side, ARG has Giuliani on the move, essentially tying Romney. (Note: Given ARG's history in New Hampshire, this is the one state where we regularly track ARG's numbers)

The Manchester Union Leader calls the poll "good news for Obama."

RICHARDSON:

The New Mexico governor is running this new TV ad in Iowa: "I'm Bill Richardson … and on clean energy, a 30-second TV ad isn't enough time. But my Web site can show you why the Sierra Club called my plan 'much more aggressive.' In 12 years, I'd lower demand for oil by 50 percent. Raise mileage standards to 50 miles per gallon. And by 2040, reduce greenhouse gases by 80 percent. I approved this message because it won't be easy, but we've relied on foreign oil and paid too much for gas long enough."

Here's more from that New York Times piece on Bloomberg's SUV ride to the Subway station (the paper followed the mayor for five weeks on his daily commute): "Almost every morning, two Suburbans waited outside his East 79th Street town house, sometimes with engines idling and windows up, until their charge was ready to leave. Uniformed police officers and the mayor's security detail flanked the doorway as Mr. Bloomberg emerged and ducked into one of the waiting vehicles. As they head to the express subway, they pass two No. 6 local stops, at 77th Street and 68th Street. They pull up to the 59th Street station, across the street from Bloomingdale's."

Every election cycle has that one set of swing voters that pollsters are dying to brand (soccer moms, security moms, NASCAR dads) in order to get extra attention for their work. Bloomberg News chimes in with what we believe is the first attempt to identify the 2008 key swing voter group: "Anxious Xers'' and "angry independents." 

Speaking of pollsters -- and just in time for today's NBC/WSJ poll! -- the Politico's Wilner praises the different national polls out there. "But don't shoot the pollsters; celebrate them. Since the 1980s, national news media alliances such as NBC and the Journal, CBS and The New York Times, ABC and The Washington Post, and a few others have provided the majority of reliable polling data on what Americans think about the state of the country, and why."

Two former presidential candidates currently serving in the Senate (Joe Lieberman and Lamar Alexander) have decided to weigh in on the controversy surrounding the primary calendar. They are getting behind a much talked about proposal that secretaries of state have supported for years -- a regional rotation of primaries, creating four Super Tuesdays. (But until the governors get involved and pledge not to sign bills that frontload the calendar, all of this chatter by secretaries of state and ex-POTUS candidates is just that ... chatter.)

The New York Times front-pages the growing movement to limit the political activity of state elections officials.

Could the Iraq war cost $1 trillion?

The New York Times reports that the Army yesterday moved "to stanch the furor over the mishandling of the friendly fire death of Cpl. Pat Tillman in Afghanistan by censuring a retired three-star general for errors and deceptions and apologizing profusely to the Tillman family and the public for 'mistakes, misjudgments and a failure of leadership.'"

Meanwhile, Henry Waxman's House Oversight and Government Reform Committee will hold a hearing today on Tillman's death, at which former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is supposed to appear.

Representatives from the anti-war conglomerate Americans Against Escalation in Iraq spoke with First Read yesterday to discuss their grassroots efforts to persuade as many as 41 targeted GOP senators and representatives up for re-election next year to vote for a "responsible" end to the Iraq war. These efforts will culminate on August 28 -- "Take A Stand Day" -- when the group's grassroots members will hold town halls asking these lawmakers to vote to change the course in Iraq. (So far, the group said that Virginia Rep. Tom Davis is the only targeted lawmaker who has said that he'll show up at his town hall.)

"The Republicans are in deep, deep trouble heading in 2008," said Tom Mattzie of MoveOn, who is serving as AAEI's campaign manager. "Help us end the war -- or face political extinction." Mattzie noted that his group has at least 41 people with cameras tracking these targeted GOP lawmakers, 130 staff members, and a budget of at least $9 million. It will also launch new TV ads later this month.

Republicans and the White House fear that congressional Democrats are pursuing a "'giant leap'" towards socialized health care, according to the Washington Times. "'Democrats are once again moving us toward 'Hillary Care'-a massive, complex system wholly run by government bureaucrats,' said House Minority Leader John A. Boehner of Ohio." 
 
House Democrats, meanwhile, passed a lobbying reform bill as part of a rush to pass major bills before August recess. "'This is going to be a banner week for Democrats,' said Rep. Jan Schakowsky of Illinois, the chief Democratic whip."

An unbelievable accusation against the Justice Department in today's Washington Post: "The night before the government secured a guilty plea from the manufacturer of the addictive painkiller OxyContin, a senior Justice Department official called the U.S. attorney handling the case and, at the behest of an executive for the drugmaker, urged him to slow down, the prosecutor told the Senate Judiciary Committee yesterday. John L. Brownlee, the U.S. attorney in Roanoke, testified that he was at home the evening of Oct. 24 when he received the call on his cellphone from Michael J. Elston, then chief of staff to the deputy attorney general and one of the Justice aides involved in the removal of nine U.S. attorneys last year. Brownlee settled the case anyway. Eight days later, his name appeared on a list compiled by Elston of prosecutors that officials had suggested be fired."

Sen. Ted Stevens (R) chided reporters for asking about the FBI raid on his home. FBI agents even snapped "pictures of every bottle of wine in his cellar."