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  • More on who's behind the TV ads

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    An analysis of federal campaign finance data shows 12 of the people listed as funding the group Freedom's Watch have given $4.2 million -- overwhelmingly to Republicans -- since the 2000 election cycle.

    Most of the donors have given solely to Republicans. Gary Erlbaum has given some money to Democrats, including Ben Cardin, Joe Lieberman and Chuck Schumer, but the majority of his money has gone to Republicans, including $3,000 to Giuliani's 2008 presidential campaign.

    The largest donor Dr. John Templeton, of the John Templeton Foundation and son of the founder of Templeton Investments, has given about $2.1 million -- solely to Republicans.

    Here's a breakdown of their donation totals:
    -John Templeton, $2,072,715
    -Gary Erlbaum, $496,663
    -Howard Leach, $436,272
    -Sheldon Adelson, $416,513
    -Anthony Gioia, $300,553
    -Mel Sembler, $224,005
    -Richard Fox $104,679
    -Kevin Moley, $59,200
    -Brad Blakeman, president of Freedom's Watch, $17,941
    -Edward Snider, $16,200
    -Ari Fleischer, $16,100
    -Matt Brooks, $4,800

    Show more
  • A new date for Petraeus' testimony?

    From NBC's Mike Viqueira
    The date of September 11 for the General Petraeus' testimony in the House does not sit well with Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and she is asking that the date be moved from the anniversary of the attacks -- which Pelosi views as "a sacred day," according to sources in her office.

    It has been reported that House Democratic leaders signed off of the 9/11 date, but that is not accurate. The Administration offered the 11th or the 12th, and no date was agreed upon, according to the same sources.

    Problem: The only alternatives would be the 10th (a Monday) or the 12th (Wednesday). In the latter case, the hearing would have to be concluded before sundown and the beginning of Rosh Hashanah. The House will not be in on Thursday the 13th or Friday the 14th due to the holiday.

  • The donors behind those new TV ads

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray 
    The donors who are financing the new multi-million-dollar TV ad campaign arguing against a withdrawal from Iraq include a Who's Who of former Bush Administration ambassadors (to plum assignments like France, Italy, and Malta); a least one of Bush's original Pioneers; the man ranked by Forbes (in 2006) as the third-richest American; and, of course, former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer.

    Brad Blakeman, the president of Freedom's Watch, which is running these ads, released the following names as donors to his group. Blakeman told NBC that the rest of the donors are choosing to be anonymous. Freedom's Watch is a 501(c)4 organization, which can collect unlimited contributions and doesn't have to disclose its donors.

    Here they are....

    -- Anthony Gioia, former ambassador to Malta. Per a White House press release announcing his appointment as ambassador, "Gioia is presently the Chairman and CEO of Gioia Management Company, a management and investment holding company located in Buffalo, New York."

    -- Kevin Moley, whom Bush appointed U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations and Other International Organizations in Geneva in September 2001. Per the White House press release announcing his appointment, Moley "was a private investor and served on the Board of Directors of five publicly held companies and three privately held companies. He previously served as a consultant to Kinetra LLC, the successor company to Integrated Medical Systems Inc., which Ambassador Moley served as President and CEO. Ambassador Moley was also Senior Vice President of PCS Health Systems, Inc."

    -- Mel Sembler, whom Bush appointed as US ambassador to Italy in 2001. According to a State Department bio, Stembler was "most recently the Chairman of the Board of The Sembler Company, one of the nation's leading shopping center developers. He is nationally recognized as an activist in the anti-drug campaign and as a staunch, long-time supporter of the Republican Party and its candidates."

    -- Howard Leach, who was Bush's ambassador to France from 2001-2005 and an original Bush Pioneer. Per the US embassy's Web site, Leach is "an entrepreneur, investor and chief executive. He began his career as founder and president of several agri-business corporations. He has served as president and major shareholder of numerous industrial and financial companies."

    -- Dr. John Templeton is chairman and president of the John Templeton Foundation

    -- Edward Snider

    -- Sheldon Adelson, casino mogul, ranked as the third-richest American (worth $20 billion) according to Forbes in 2006

    -- Richard Fox

    -- Ari Fleischer, former White House press secretary

    -- Gary Erlbaum

    -- Matt Brooks

  • Biden shakes up finance team

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro

    First Read has confirmed that the Biden campaign is reshuffling its finance team. According a source close to the campaign, Finance Director Chris Koerner has turned over day-to-day management of the finance operation to Biden's long-time finance director, Dennis Toner. "She is not going anywhere, and her title remains the same," the source said of Koerner, who will focus on raising money from trial lawyers. 

    Veteran New York fundraiser Paula Levine "is stepping up to play larger role" as is Mary Liz Kane, Sen. Ted Kennedy's long-time finance director in Boston.

    Through the first two quarters, Biden has only raised $4.4 million, behind the fund-raising numbers of Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Richardson and Dodd.

  • Dem reactions to Bush's speech

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    A sampling of some of the reactions (so far) to Bush's VFW speech today...

    John Kerry: "Invoking the tragedy of Vietnam to defend the failed policy in Iraq is as irresponsible as it is ignorant of the realities of both of those wars," Senator Kerry said. "Half of the soldiers whose names are on the Vietnam Memorial Wall died after the politicians knew our strategy would not work. The lesson is to change the strategy not just to change the rhetoric.

    Clinton: "The surge was designed to give the Iraqi government time to take steps to ensure a political solution to the situation. It has failed to do so. The White House's report in September won't change that... We need to stop refereeing the war, and start getting out now."

    Obama: "The disastrous consequences described by President Bush are already in motion and are a direct result of a war that should never have been authorized. There is no military solution to Iraq's problems. The only way to reverse these consequences is to change course through a surge in our diplomatic and humanitarian efforts in Iraq and the region, and a phased withdrawal of our forces that puts real pressure on the Iraqi government to act."

    Biden: "President Bush continues to cling to a fundamentally flawed premise –- that Iraqis will rally behind a strong central government. That will not happen... Bush today attempted to draw an analogy to Vietnam, but in fact it's the president's policies that are pushing us toward another Saigon moment –- with helicopters fleeing the roof of our embassy."

  • Bush, Pentagon assert support for Maliki

    From NBC's Courtney Kube and Domenico Montanaro
    At his speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars, President Bush emphasized support for Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

    "Prime Minister Maliki is a good man," Bush said, "a good guy with a difficult job, and I support him. And it is not up to the politicians in Washington, D.C to say whether he will remain in his position. That is up to the Iraqi people, who now live in a democracy, not a dictatorship."

    Video: President Bush speaks to the Veterans of Foreign War annual meeting in Kansas City.

    The Pentagon echoed sentiments out of Bush and the White House this morning, saying the Department continues to support Maliki.

    Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell conceded that the pace of political progress in Iraq has "not been to anyone's liking," but added that Maliki's government is "the government we have been working with, and we will continue to be supportive of their efforts."

    "This is our guy right now," Morrell said.

    Also asked about reports that the U.S. will drawdown the U.S. troops in Iraq to about 110,000 be next September, Morrell said only, "It's premature to judge where we're going to be one year from now. Way premature."

  • Johnson to head home to SD

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) will head home to South Dakota Tuesday for the first time since having brain surgery in December. Johnson and his, Barbara, will host a "Thank You, South Dakota" event in Sioux Falls that day, which will be Johnson's first public appearance since the surgery.

    "He's excited to go home," said Megan Smith, Johnson's Senate deputy communications director. "Doctors gave him the green light to go home. We think it's going to be a happy event."

    Johnson is expected back in the Senate this fall.

  • The Iraq spin zone

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    A $25 million spin campaign is on to win the public relations battle ahead of the mid-September Iraq progress report. Two groups on opposite sides of the ideological debate on whether or not to withdraw troops from Iraq have launched a massive television campaign to frame the debate.

    Freedom's Watch, with whom former Bush White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer is working, today launched $15 million worth of ads with anecdotal accounts of injured veterans and families of those who have lost relatives who advocate for staying in Iraq.

    The ads are largely in response to $10 million worth of ads already running, which are paid for by Americans Against Escalation in Iraq, a coalition of groups that want troops to begin to be withdrawn from Iraq.

    Freedom's Watch's new ads will run in more than 20 congressional districts and urge viewers to call an 800-number to tell their representatives "not to surrender to terror," according to a Freedom's Watch press release.

    "The mission of Freedom's Watch is to ensure a strong national defense and a powerful effort to confront and defeat global terror, especially in Iraq," Bradley A. Blakeman, President of Freedom's Watch, said in a statement. "Those who want to quit while victory is possible have dominated the public debate about terror and Iraq since the 2004 election. Freedom's Watch is going to change that."

    Here are links to four of Freedom's Watch ads, "Veteran," "Travis," "Robinson" and "Jesse." The last line from "Jesse," spoken by a family member of a soldier who died in Iraq, is: "We already had one 9/11, we don't need another."

  • First thoughts

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro

    *** The Best Analogy? Two days after Clinton and McCain spoke to the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Kansas City, and a day after Obama and Thompson did the same, President Bush addresses the group this morning. Per excerpts released by the White House, Bush will say that the surge is working and that withdrawal from Iraq could lead to the same killing of innocent lives like we saw after leaving Vietnam. "One unmistakable legacy of Vietnam is that the price of America's withdrawal was paid by millions of innocent citizens whose agonies would add to our vocabulary new terms like 'boat people,' 're-education camps,' and 'killing fields,'" the president is expected to say. Yet not only does such a comparison invite Bush to being asked about the tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians who have already died since the war began, it also raises this question: Does Bush really want to compare Iraq to Vietnam? "Does he think we should have stayed in Vietnam?" Vietnam historian Stanley Karnow says in USA Today. 

    *** Coming Soon To A TV Screen Near You: Also, don't miss the news that a conservative group -- whose spokesman is former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer -- is going up today with a $15 million advertising campaign arguing that the troop surge is working. Those ads will compete against ones that antiwar groups (like Americans Against Escalation in Iraq and Americans United for Change) are/will be airing. The battle to define Petraeus' September report is already beginning.

    *** The Real Political Fight Going On: Giuliani's campaign yesterday decided to respond to the veiled attacks coming from the Romney and Thompson camps. While not attacking Giuliani by name, they certainly attacked "New York City" on the issues of immigration and guns. Here's Giuliani spokesperson Katie Levinson responding directly to Thompson's blog post on New York City's gun policies: "Those who live in New York in the real world -- not on TV -- know that Rudy Giuliani's record of making the city safe for families speaks for itself. No amount of political theater will change that." Bottom line, folks: The media may care more about Clinton vs. Obama right now, but Giuliani vs. Thompson/Romney is where the real action has been this week.

    VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on Mitt Romney's and Fred Thompson's attacks on Republican presidential frontrunner Rudy Giuliani.

    *** A Chain Reaction? As we reported last week, Michigan is working to move up its primary to January 15, leapfrogging it -- for now -- past New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina (although New Hampshire will obviously move up to remain the nation's first primary). In response to Michigan's move, Biden released this statement yesterday: "Powerful interests are trying to change the Democratic nomination for President into a game of Monopoly, replacing the retail politics of Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire with a process in which the only credential necessary to be President is to be the wealthiest candidate." He then called on his Dem rivals to join him to ensure those states' primacy on the nominating calendar. Will this lead to the candidates promising to skip Michigan? Which Democrats will join Biden's call? Remember, this Michigan legislation isn't a done deal yet, so maybe the state legislators will compromise to end up on January 22 instead of the 15th, which would potentially preserve (at a minimum) the influence of Iowa and New Hampshire.

    *** Bayou bashing: Although the presidential race is dominating most of the nation's political talk, things are getting downright ugly in this year's Louisiana gubernatorial contest. The state Democratic Party there is running a TV ad blasting front-runner Bobby Jindal (R), a Catholic, for writing an article back in the 1990s comparing Catholicism with Protestantism. The ad, which is airing in the Protestant-heavy north part of the state, goes: "He wrote articles that insulted thousands of Louisiana Protestants. He has referred to Protestant religions as scandalous, depraved, selfish, and heretical." Jindal, the overwhelming favorite to be the state's next governor, has called the accusations false. With the election 59 days away, will the ad hurt him, possibly keeping him below the 50% needed to avoid a run-off? Or will it produce backlash on the Dems? One thing's for sure: Nonpartisan political analyst Stu Rothenberg is calling it one of the "hardest hitting" -- and possibly even the "dirtiest" ad -- in history.
     

    *** On The Trail: Biden and Richardson participate in a Brookings Institution/University of Nevada, Reno forum on education. Before that, they address the Nevada AFL-CIO convention. Elsewhere, Giuliani rallies with supporters in Del Mar, CA; Huckabee continues to campaign in South Carolina; Hunter holds a press conference in Texas; Obama raises money in New Hampshire, campaigns in New York, and then appears on Comedy Central's Daily Show; and Romney visits Jackson Hole, WY.

    Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 12 days
    Countdown to LA GOV election: 59 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2007: 76 days
    Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 87 days
    Countdown to Iowa: 144 days
    Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 166 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2008: 440 days
    Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 517 days

  • Iraq

    In previewing Bush's VFW speech today, USA Today also writes about the TV ad battle over how to define the success of the troop surge. "Freedom's Watch, a conservative group, plans to launch a $15 million advertising campaign in 20 states today. The group's spokesman, former Bush press secretary Ari Fleischer, says the goal is to tell people that the buildup of U.S. troops in Iraq is working. 'We want to get the message to both Democrats and Republicans: Don't cut and run, fully fund the troops, and victory is the only objective,' Fleischer says."

    "One of the main voices in the anti-war movement is a coalition called Americans Against Escalation in Iraq, which includes such liberal groups as MoveOn.org, the Center for American Progress and the Service Employees International Union. The coalition is running advertisements attacking senators and representatives who support Bush's Iraq policies. "Our ads are about defining the Republicans in the minds of the voters as sticking with Bush on Iraq," says Tom Matzzie, director of the ad campaign."

    The Washington Post on the GOP ad campaign: "Democratic leaders in Congress had planned to use August recess to raise the heat on Republicans to break with President Bush on the Iraq war. Instead, Democrats have been forced to recalibrate their own message in the face of recent positive signs on the security front, increasingly focusing their criticisms on what those military gains have not achieved: reconciliation among Iraq's diverse political factions."

    Meanwhile, the liberal group Americans United for Change is going up with TV ads tomorrow that target GOP Sens. Pete Domenici (in New Mexico), Susan Collins (in Maine) and George Voinovich (in Ohio), as well as GOP Reps. Michele Bachmann (in Minnesota) and Jon Porter (in Nevada). Here's an example of one of the ads.

    For what it's worth, the Chicago Tribune notes Obama received a larger throng of folks at his rope line after his VFW speech than Fred Thompson did. Both Obama and Thompson were given standing ovations following their speeches.

    The New York Daily News adds, "Obama's pledge to improve pay and benefits won him several rounds of applause, but the vets were less responsive to his call for withdrawing from Iraq to focus on Afghanistan."

    The Edwards campaign decided to pounce (a day later) on the interpretation of Clinton's VFW speech on Monday, which claimed the surge is working. While not technically what she said, her remarks have been interpreted that way. Said Edwards campaign manager David Bonior in a statement: "Senator "Hillary Clinton's view that the president's Iraq policy is 'working' is another instance of a Washington politician trying to have it both ways. You cannot be for the President's strategy in Iraq but against the war. The American people deserve straight talk and real answers on Iraq, not double-speak, triangulation, or political positioning."

  • Oh-eight (D): Hillary on Cuba

    BIDEN: Biden spoke at a Jewish temple in Iowa and said, "The road to peace between Israelites and Palestinians is not through Baghdad, but ironically, the road to be able to negotiate real peace has to first settle the situation in Baghdad."

    CLINTON: In response to Obama's comments that the US should move toward normalizing relations with Cuba -- if the country takes steps towards democracy -- Clinton responds in a statement: "Until it is clear what type of policies might come with a new government, we cannot talk about changes in the U.S. policies toward Cuba," reports the AP's Hispanic Affairs reporter Laura Wides-Munoz.

    It looks like the Clinton campaign has joined the Obama camp in ramping up their traveling press operation. With so many reporters on the verge of hitting the trail on Sept. 3rd, there's no time like the present to beef things up. Bill Clinton spokesman Jay Carson will become Hillary's new traveling press person. Carson has the added authority with the Clinton campaign that he'll have Bill's ear. The again, is that a danger? Bill Clinton now has direct access to the traveling press aide?

    DODD: It may have been a campaign stunt, but it worked. Dodd's meeting with Fed Chair Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson got Dodd some of the best press he's received since he began his campaign. The Hartford Courant: "Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said … he would use all the tools available to him to ease the current market volatility and credit crunch -- a possible signal that the Fed has not ruled out an interest rate cut and is willing to take more aggressive regulatory moves against rogue lenders if necessary. Bernanke offered that message to Christopher J. Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee." 

    The New York Times: "'I think the Fed gets it' about the seriousness of the problem, Mr. Dodd said after a meeting this morning with the Fed chairman … to discuss steps to stabilize the markets and stave off home foreclosures. But he added, 'I'm still concerned that Treasury doesn't understand the importance of the issue.'"

    EDWARDS: The campaign is organizing another poverty tour of sorts -- this one focused on education in some of the rural and poorest parts of South Carolina. The tour begins in October.

    Daughter Cate is blogging ahead of her father's next New Hampshire trip.

    OBAMA: Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-PA) "backs Obama over Hil," says a New York Daily News headline. Murphy, the lone Iraq veteran in Congress, endorsed Obama yesterday, a day after Clinton used his name at the VFW convention. (Check out the photo in the Daily News story with Bill Clinton looking adoringly at Murphy over his shoulder.)

    The Washington Post's Ruth Marcus scores the purity battle over lobbyist money and campaign reform for Obama -- over both Clinton and Edwards.

    Obama's luster hasn't appeared to wear off in New Hampshire, the AP notes. At a  "minor league baseball game Tuesday night, Sen. Barack Obama moved so slowly through the crowd of 300 that two innings had passed before he made it to his seat. The Democratic presidential hopeful was stopped every few inches to pose for pictures or sign autographs." A Republican and an independent are quoted saying they are considering supporting Obama. 

  • Oh-eight (R): The politics of A-Rod

    GIULIANI: The Giuliani campaign will begin rolling out his tax policy this week. On Saturday, for instance, his campaign will sponsor a forum on taxes, which will be moderated by former Massachusetts Gov. Paul Cellucci and former presidential candidate Steve Forbes.

    The Los Angeles Times' Brownstein observes that Giuliani is bearing the brunt of the attacks in the GOP battle for purity on immigration.

    The New York Post looks at New York's immigration policies: "Former Mayor Ed Koch initiated the policy in the 1988 to encourage illegal immigrants to report crimes, seek medical treatment and enroll their kids in schools without fear of being reported. The policy was continued by successors David Dinkins, Giuliani and Bloomberg. A Giuliani campaign official said Romney's slam was "desperate" and 'hypocritical.'"

    And America's most famous Yankees fan believes the team needs to step up and re-sign A-Rod.

    HUCKABEE: Check out some of the subtle shots Huckabee is taking at Romney. This is from his trip to South Carolina yesterday. "This country is not so much about gold roots as it is about grassroots," Huckabee said, later adding, "Leadership is not about having enough money that you can buy the presidency."

    MCCAIN: How far has McCain fallen? He's no longer even the most popular elected official in the state of Arizona. In fact, if McCain were up for re-election in '08, he'd be vulnerable to a challenge from Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano. In a Rocky Mountain Poll, Napolitano leads McCain in a hypothetical Senate match-up by double digits, 47%-36%. Of course, McCain isn't up for re-election until 2010.

    Bloomberg's Ed Chen writes on McCain's 2.0 campaign, and sees an uphill battle for the senator to get back to the top tier.

    ROMNEY: The Boston Globe tees off on how Romney's talks about his health-care plan on its front page with the headline, "Romney's rhetoric glosses Mass. years." The paper writes that Romney "decries 'socialized medicine' and says the Massachusetts plan is 'all a private initiative, a private-based, market-based healthcare' -- omitting the fact that the state and federal governments subsidize much of the overall cost and that a public board negotiated the benefits and prices that private insurers now offer." Critics "say he is resorting to tricks used by candidates trying to put the best spin on their records: accentuating the positive, deleting difficult details, and taking too much credit."

    But is anyone else shocked, shocked that Romney is trying to emphasize only certain portions of Massachusetts record while de-emphasizing the less, conservative, parts?

    Nevada political guru Jon Ralston had a sit-down with Romney yesterday. Check out this exchange on Romney's views on gaming and abortion. "When he gave the old state's rights argument on gaming – Nevadans have decided they want it, so I will leave it alone – I asked him if that also applied to Nevadans deciding through initiative that a woman's right to choose should be cemented in statute. Here's the full exchange:
    MR: "My own view is I'd rather not have gaming in my own life."
    JR:  "Why? What's wrong with gaming?"
    MR:  "I'm going to let people make their own decisions. I'm going to let states make their own decisions on this issue."
    JR:  "The state here also made a decision two decades ago, put it in statute a woman's right to choose. That's OK, too?"
    MR:  "My view is that the Supreme Court has made an error in saying at the national level once size fits all for the whole nation. Instead, I would let states make their choices."
    JR:  "So, it's OK that we're a pro-choice state?"
    MR:  "I'd let states make their own decision in this regard. My view of course is I'm a pro-life individual. That's the position I support. But, I'd let states have this choice rather than let the federal government have it."

    THOMPSON: The candidate-to-be was to be interviewed today on a Richmond radio station (WRVA) by former Virginia Sen. George Allen. You'll recall a few months ago that Allen had very good things to say about a Thompson candidacy. We'd argue that Thompson is filling the 2008 GOP presidential primary vacuum left by Allen.

    Speaking of Allen, the New York Times' Frank Rich over weekend reminded readers that Mitt Romney won the Ames Straw poll on the 1st anniversary of Allen's "Macaca" mishap. Had Macaca ever happened, would Romney have so easily won the Ames straw poll?

  • More oh-eight: Punishment time?

    At a minimum, the ballot initiative Republicans are pushing in California, which if enacted could deliver as many as 20 electoral votes to the Republican presidential nominee next year is going to cost Democratic interest groups millions of dollars. The campaign to defeat this initiative is now officially on… Two California Democrats, Peter Ragone and Chris Lehane, unveiled initiatives that would bound California in a compact with other states (if other states chose to do this) to deliver their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote. Here's the Los Angeles Times coverage of the rollout.

    The DNC rules committee meets later this week to decide whether to sanction Florida and then, of course, begin a discussion of what to do about Michigan. According to the Politico, the DNC rules committee members appear to be less interested in finding compromise and more interested in exacting a punishment.

    Speaking of the DNC… This is not an Onion story. Michael Dukakis is apparently helping Howard Dean's DNC with precinct targeting. Are we sure the RNC has taken over the New York Observer?

  • Edwards hits Clinton on surge

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    The Edwards campaign issued a statement attacking Clinton for comments on the surge at the VFW convention yesterday. "Senator Hillary Clinton's view that the president's Iraq policy is 'working' is another instance of a Washington politician trying to have it both ways," said Rep. David Bonior, Edwards' campaign manager. "You cannot be for the President's strategy in Iraq but against the war. The American people deserve straight talk and real answers on Iraq, not double-speak, triangulation, or political positioning."

    The Edwards campaign did acknowledge progress in Al-Anbar in the statement, but Bonior added that progress "should not distract us from the fact that pouring more military resources into Iraq is no substitute for the comprehensive national political solution that will ultimately resolve the situation in Iraq. … By cherry-picking one instance to validate a failed Bush strategy, it risks undermining the effort in the Congress to end this war."

    ****UPDATE**** We posted what Clinton said in this morning's First Thoughts, but here it is again for context: "We've begun to change tactics in Iraq and in some areas, particularly in Al Anbar province, it's working. We're just years too late changing our tactics. We can't ever let that again. We can't be fighting the last war, we have to be preparing to fight a new war."

    **** UPDATE 2 **** Clinton camp's response: "Senator Edwards was right on Sunday when he said that all the Democrats would end the war and that the differences between them were small," said Howard Wolfson, Clinton senior adviser. "He is wrong today to distort Senator Clinton's opposition to the surge in a sad attempt to raise his flagging poll numbers. The fact is that while Democrats, including Senator Edwards and Senator Obama, acknowledge progress in Al Anbar, Senator Clinton opposed the surge from the start and believes there is no military solution to the war in Iraq."

  • Obama discusses Iraq, 'sacred trust'

    From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
    In his address to the VFW today, Obama spoke on the theme of "sacred trust," using the phrase seven times in his 26-minute speech. He defined "sacred trust" simply: "America will be there for you just as you have been there for America" -- "from the moment you put on that uniform." Obama recognized he is running to become commander-in-chief "to safeguard this nation's security and to keep that sacred trust."
     
    Obama brought up the Iraq War in the beginning of the speech, and then spoke about veterans' issues -- the opposite order of Hillary Clinton's own speech yesterday to the organization. He also criticized the Iraq war much more bluntly than Clinton did. After praising the troops' performance, he very clearly stated, "all of our top military commanders recognize that there is no military solution to the problems in Iraq."
     
    "No matter how brilliantly and bravely our troops and their commanders perform -- and they have performed brilliantly and bravely -- they cannot and should not bear the responsibility of resolving grievances at the heart of Iraq's civil war," he said. "No military surge no matter how brilliantly performed can succeed without political reconciliation and a surge of diplomacy in Iraq and the region. Iraq's leaders are not reconciling. They are not achieving political benchmarks. The only thing that they seem to have agreed on is to take a vacation."
     
    Like Clinton did, Obama called for a GI Bill for the 21st Century that expands educational opportunities and benefits. Yet he did not go into much detail on what that would entail. He did promise veterans affairs would be a top priority in an Obama Administration.
     
    "My Secretary of Veterans Affairs will be just as important as my Secretary of Defense," he said to growing applause. "No more shortfalls; it's time to fully fund the VA medical center. No more delays; it's time to pass on-time VA budgets each and every year. No more means testing; it's time to allow all veterans back into the VA."
     
    As Obama has called for in the past, he said America should "bolster our mission in Afghanistan," and ensure America has enough armed forces by adding 65,000 soldiers and 27,000 marines. He also promised he would listen to the leaders on the ground. "And I will always respect -- and not ignore -- the advice of military commanders," he said. "But I will also make clear that when I am President, the buck will stop in the Oval Office."

  • Thompson addresses the VFW

    From NBC's Andrew Merten
    It was soon-to-be candidate Fred Thompson's turn today to address the Veterans of Foreign Wars in Kansas City, Mo. While he didn't explicitly mention his likely campaign for the presidency, his rhetoric on the Iraq war was similar to that of some of the official GOP candidates. 

    Like McCain's speech to the VFW yesterday, Thompson opted first to praise veterans -- old and young -- for their service. "Most Americans know that without the home of the brave, and folks that make it the home of the brave, there would be no land of the free. And we have you and the other people like you to thank for that." 

    It wasn't until about halfway through his speech that he addressed the current war in Iraq. He said, "Some people in this country apparently think that if we can pull out of Iraq, our problems will be over. You and I know better than that. We know that Iraq is an important front in this war, but we also know that if we appear to be divided and weak in this nation, that it is going to enable an enemy and make our country more dangerous." He went on to further lament the nation's divisiveness on Iraq, calling for a "frank discussion" at "the highest levels, with both parties" because policy-makers will ultimately need "the support of the American people and their understanding of what's at stake."

    Thompson also had some harsh words about the current Democratic Congress, drawing a comparison between the veterans of past wars and those lawmakers who wish to withdraw troops from Iraq. He said, "I'm somewhat reminded when I look at Congress, of that scene -- that scene, that famous scene -- of Iwo Jima, where those brave people are struggling, several of them around, you know, trying to plant the flag. Except this time, it's not an American flag, it's a white flag."

  • Dodd on mortgage problems

    From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Kristin Wilson
    In a media availability after his meeting today with Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson to discuss the nation's mortgage-market problems, Dodd outlined his solutions to those problems. His recommendations included: 1) asking Treasury to lift portfolio caps at Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac; 2) the establishing a fund to keep people in their homes and prevent foreclosures of homes purchased with "bad mortgages"; and 3) strengthening markets for investors and businesses by keeping the markets liquid. He encouraged the Fed to use all of the tools available, but he did not call for a congressional mandate.
     
    Dodd recognized that if people are given more time to repay their mortgages in order to avoid foreclosure, someone will have to pay for that, telling CNBC's John Harwood that "keeping people in their homes is very, very valuable." He pointed out "one foreclosure in an economically fragile neighborhood will cause the value of every other home in that square block to decline by as much as three to five-thousand dollars."
     
    As mentioned earlier today, as the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, Dodd is able to get meetings like this with Bernanke and Paulson. But was his photo-op today about the mortgage problems -- or about the 2008 presidential race?

  • Romney, Thompson’s shots at Giuliani

    We mentioned earlier that Romney is running a radio ad hitting Giuliani on immigration. Well, it seems Romney isn't the only one going after the former New York City mayor.

    NBC's Joel Seidman reports: In his latest "Fred file" blog today, candidate-in-waiting, Fred Thompson, takes aim at Giuliani and his war on gun makers, back when Giuliani was mayor.

    Thompson laments, "Unfortunately, New York is trying, again, to force its ways on the rest of us."

    The former Tennessee senator tries to shoot down an "activist federal judge from Brooklyn," who he says, "provided Mayor Giuliani's administration with the legal ruling it sought to sue gun makers."

    The judge, Thompson says, "created a bizarre justification to allow New York City to sue out-of-state gun stores that sold guns that somehow ended up in criminal hands in the Big Apple."

    Thompson again harped on an old conservative theme -- runaway government. "The lawsuit has been a lesson in out-of-control government from the get-go," Thompson writes. "Mayor Bloomberg sent private investigators to make 'straw' purchases -- illegally buying guns for somebody else. According to the ATF, NY's illegal 'stings' interfered with ongoing investigations of real gun traffickers."

    **** UPDATE **** A Giuliani aide tells First Read in response: "Clearly they're attacking Mayor Giuliani because he's the front-runner. The news here is the first 527 attack is from Fred Thompson and not George Soros, and Governor Romney's ad conveniently forgets that his trooper plan that never took effect did absolutely nothing to cut down on the number of illegals working in his yard."

  • Anatomy of a controversy

    From NBC's Mark Murray, Chuck Todd, and Andrew Merten
    On his site now, Drudge has this provocative headline: "Obama Wife Slams Hillary?" It's taken from this Chicago Sun-Times story today. "At another stop, in Atlantic, Michelle said she travels with her husband in part 'to model what it means to have family values,' adding 'if you can't run your own house, you can't run the White House.' She didn't elaborate, but it could be interpreted as a swipe at the Clintons."

    So, the story seems to have it all -- a reference to the Clinton's marital problems, more Obama vs. Clinton, etc. There's just one problem: This all seems to be a manufactured controversy. For one thing, what Michelle Obama said isn't anything new; in fact, it appears to be her stump speech. She said this on August 13, per the AP. And also on August 16, per the New York Times. In both instances, it appears she's talking about her own family and its values.

    In a just-concluded conference call, Obama responded to the suggestion that his wife was slamming the Clintons. "She wasn't making any reference to that," he said. "If anybody who's been listening to Michelle on the stump, she's talked about the importance of family, and the need for our family to make sure that we're thinking about our kids during the process of this campaign. And she's repeated that in every stump speech. So, you know, there are no references beyond her point that we've had an administration that talks a lot about family values, but doesn't follow through on it, and part of the challenge for us in this campaign is making sure that we are talking the talk but also walking the walk. That's all it was referring to, and as I said, that's been a standard aspect of her speech for a long time.

    In short, this appears to be a Drudge straw man; the challenge for news divisions (including our own) is whether they actually bite.

  • Obama on the surge

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Andrew Merten
    After Hillary Clinton yesterday said the troop surge is working, but it's too late and Democrat Brian Baird came out and also said the surge is working, First Read asked Obama what he thinks during a conference call with reporters to announce the endorsement of Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-PA).

    Obama noted that he hadn't seen a transcript of exactly what Clinton said yesterday about the troop surge during her speech at the VFW, but added, "My assessment is that if we put an additional 30,000 of our outstanding troops into Baghdad, that that's going to quell some of the violence, short term. I don't think that there's ever been any doubt about that. And I don't think that there's any doubt that as long as US troops are present, that, you know, they are going to be doing outstanding work.

    "It doesn't change the underlying assessment, which is that there's not a military solution to the problem in Iraq, and that the political dynamic in Iraq has not changed. The only thing that the Iraqi legislature appears to have agreed to, as the surge took place, was a motion to adjourn and go on vacation. 

    "And the ongoing question is how can we trigger a serious conversation and a responsible conversation between the Shiite and the Sunni and the Kurds that will reduce the sectarian conflict. That is not happening, and until it does, we are going to continue to see long-term problems, there, and it's my assessment that until we begin a phased withdrawal from Iraq, we're not going to get the sort of serious talks within Iraq and in the region, that are required."

    Murphy, 33, is an Iraq veteran and has been active in the debate on Iraq in Congress. The endorsement announcement comes a day after Clinton's glowing comments about Murphy yesterday during her address to the VFW convention and just hours before Obama addresses the VFW himself.

    "I met Patrick Murphy, when he was a captain in the 82nd Airborne in Baghdad in 2003, when I was there on my first trip," Clinton said yesterday during her address. "We went to Sadr City, and we met with members of the 82nd, one of whom was this bright, young captain named Patrick Murphy. When he left the Army, he decided to continue his public service in another way -- he ran for and won a seat in Congress. So when I was thinking about what kind of bill of rights -- a GI Bill of Rights we needed for the 21st century, he was one of the first calls I made, because he had lived it.

    She and Murphy co-sponsored the 21st Century GI Bill of Rights legislation in May. Today, Murphy said of Obama, "He's absolutely our best chance to change the direction of our country."

  • First thoughts

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro

    *** She Said What? As we mentioned before, perhaps the biggest story so far in the Democratic presidential contest has been Hillary Clinton's steady evolution from a hawk on the Iraq war to a dove. That transformation, in fact, has coincided directly with her rise in the national polls. But speaking yesterday at the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention in Kansas City, she said something that might raise some Democrats' eyebrows: that some elements of the troop surge are working. Per the New York Times, "'We've begun to change tactics in Iraq, and in some areas, particularly in Al Anbar Province, it's working," [she said]... 'We're just years too late changing our tactics. We can't ever let that happen again. We can't be fighting the last war; we have to be preparing to fight the new war.'" Of course, she isn't the only Democrat who has said the surge is producing some results (see Carl Levin's statement), but can the Democratic presidential front-runner say this? Will she be alone among the Democratic presidential candidates to praise parts of the surge?

    *** More VFW Politics: McCain followed Clinton yesterday in addressing the VFW convention. While she received a tepid, polite reception, he got plenty of applause. The same thing will probably occur today when Obama (who opposes the Iraq war) and Fred Thompson (who supports it) speak at the confab. What will Obama say about the surge? Somehow, we think it will be a bit different than what Clinton said. Before he addresses the VFW, Obama holds a conference call with reporters announcing the endorsement he's picking up from freshman Rep. Patrick Murphy (D), an Iraq war vet who opposes the war.

    *** Worst Presidential Rollout Ever? Speaking of Thompson… If his campaign rollout couldn't get any worse -- see the Gucci shoes moment courtesy of Fox News -- the campaign has lost another senior staffer, this one from the communications shop. And now there's a new FEC complaint claiming the candidate-to-be abused the "testing the waters" rule. But Thompson gets a fresh chance to prove he can give a good speech when he addresses the VFW convention. It should be a friendly audience that enjoys his aw-shucks approach. He's got a low bar of expectations to meet today. Can he exceed that bar?

    VIDEO:  NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on FEC charges filed against former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn., and Sen. Barack Obama's call to ease Cuban restrictions.

    *** Cuba Libre: A month ago, Obama's response to how he'd deal with world dictators created the first true skirmish of the Democratic campaign. Today, he returns to the topic (in a way) by penning an op-ed in the Miami Herald that calls for unrestricted travel rights for Cuba Americans to Cuba, as well as normalized relations with a post-Castro Cuba -- if it begins to make some democratic changes. How will this policy play in Florida? Does it help him win over some second- and third-generation Cubans who want to visit their family members in Cuba more often? Or will the policy fire up the more conservative Cubans to fight Obama and hurt the Democrats in a general in the key swing state of Florida? Of course, Obama's policy doesn't seem that unpopular -- after all, who is opposed to engaging a Cuba that's making democratic progress or allowing Cuban Americans to visit their relatives? But he's the first presidential candidate, to our knowledge, to say this.

    *** He Sells Sanctuary: Romney's up with a new radio spot that one could argue is the first semi-negative attack ad by a major candidate. The ad doesn't mention Giuliani by name, but it attacks New York City for being a "sanctuary city" for illegal immigrants.

    *** The Campaigner-In-Chief Returns: One of the more interesting political stories in the run-up to last year's midterm elections involved every time an unpopular President Bush traveled to purple states (like Ohio and Pennsylvania) to raise money and campaign for Republican candidates, most of whom ended up losing on Election Day. Bush -- with even lower national approval ratings than he had before the midterms -- returns to electoral politics in the purple (yet still Dem-leaning) Minnesota, where he raises money at a closed-press event for vulnerable Sen. Norm Coleman (R), who's up for re-election next year. Before this evening's fundraiser, Bush holds a media avail in Canada with the leaders of Canada and Mexico. And then he heads to Minnesota attend a briefing on the collapsed bridge in Minneapolis.

    *** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Biden is in Iowa; Clinton is down in Chappaqua, NY; Dodd, in DC, meets with Federal chair Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson about the stock market's fluctuations, especially regarding the problems in the mortgage market; Huckabee campaigns in South Carolina; Obama heads to New Hampshire after speaking at the VFW convention; and Romney stumps in Las Vegas and Reno, NV. 

    Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 13 days
    Countdown to LA GOV election: 60 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2007: 77 days
    Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 88 days
    Countdown to Iowa: 145 days
    Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 167 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2008: 441 days
    Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 518 days

  • Iraq

    Clinton's remarks yesterday at the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention might raise a few eyebrows. The New York Times writes that Clinton said "that some elements of the strategy in Iraq appeared to be achieving success, but said a military solution was unattainable and the best way to honor the service of American troops was to 'bring them home.' 'We've begun to change tactics in Iraq, and in some areas, particularly in Al Anbar Province, it's working,' said Mrs. Clinton."

    More: "The remarks were notable because Mrs. Clinton has been a consistent critic of the Bush administration's troop escalation in Iraq, and Republican presidential candidates have been seizing on signs of progress in Al Anbar Province in arguing against a troop withdrawal."

    The New York Daily News headlines Clinton and McCain speaking at the VFW convention with, "Hil wins cheers, McCain hearts at VFW."

    Sens. Carl Levin (D-MI) and John Warner (R-VA) issued a joint statement basically calling for the democratic ousting of Iraq's Prime Minister al-Maliki. "Warner did not explicitly call for the removal of the Maliki government. But he joined Mr. Levin in a joint statement that, while noting some success under the current troop increase in improving the security situation in Iraq, was tempered by a grim assessment of political progress." By the way, the joint statement also noted that they believe the "surge" is having "measurable results."

    The Washington Times: "Top Senate Democrats have started to acknowledge progress in Iraq, with the chairman of the Armed Services Committee yesterday saying the U.S. troop surge is producing 'measurable results.' Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan highlighted improved security in Baghdad and al Qaeda losses in Anbar province as examples of success — a shift for Democrats who have mainly discounted or ignored advances on the battlefield for weeks."

  • Oh-eight (D): Dodd and Bernanke

    CLINTON: Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe (D) endorsed Clinton yesterday in Little Rock, NBC's Lauren Appelbaum reports. Clinton lauded Beebe's accomplishments in the state, highlighting his work with education and health care. With partners like Beebe, Clinton said she would be able to bring about the change needed in Washington. "There seemed to be a little bit of a debate on do we need change or do we need experience. Well, we need both, it's not either-or," she said. "And I'm going to take my 35 years of experience, and I'm going to put it to work on behalf of the change we need in Washington starting on day one."

    DODD: The Hartford Courant previews Dodd's meeting today with Fed chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson on the mortgage-market problems. "The session, scheduled to begin at 10 a.m. in Dodd's Capitol Hill office, comes as markets nervously react to the recent credit crunch. The volatility was triggered by problems in the subprime mortgage market. Dodd has long thought the Fed could take some steps to improve its oversight of lenders and that Treasury could ease some regulatory requirements."

    A quick thought: As Senate Banking chairman, of course, Dodd has every right to call Bernanke in. But to announce this meeting in a campaign press release? Is he calling Bernanke to meet as a candidate or in his role as chairman? The Fed, after all, is supposed to be non-political.

    EDWARDS: Is it ever a good sign when a candidate has to swear he's taking a state seriously on the same day reports surface of another key staffer is leaving the state? That's what happened in Edwards World yesterday.

    OBAMA: The Miami Herald writes, "Obama is calling for ''unrestricted rights' for Cuban Americans to visit and send money to family in Cuba, just days before his first pilgrimage to Little Havana as a presidential candidate. President Bush clamped down on family travel and remittances to Cuba in an effort to squeeze Fidel Castro. The policy has become a flash point in the Cuban-American community, which traditionally leans toward the GOP."

    Obama is expected to repeat his message Saturday at Miami-Dade County Auditorium, a site laden with nostalgia for Cuban exiles. It was there that President Ronald Reagan declared 'Cuba sí, Castro no' during a landmark, anti-communist speech in 1983 that emboldened a Cuban-American community then on the political fringes… Obama's stance puts him at odds with Republican presidential field and could open the door for his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, to continue a foreign policy spat that began during a televised debate last month."

    Here's Obama's op-ed.

    Meanwhile, the AP's Fournier finds some voters who believe an Obama presidency is a "stretch" to visualize. "Obama could close the stature gap by producing more detailed plans for lowering health care costs, taming the federal debt, resolving the Iraq war and addressing other issues. Edwards, so far, has the edge on the so-called policy primary."

    "It would help had Obama spent more time overseas. Clinton has made several trips to Iraq and other foreign spots." "For now, Obama seems to be relying on a calm, comfortable campaign demeanor to a send the signal that he is a man in control. In a word, safe."

    Also, Obama touted what he sees as his ability to redraw the political map while campaigning in New Hampshire yesterday. "I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up 30 percent around the country, minimum. Young people's percentage of the vote goes up 25-30 percent. So we're in a position to put states in play that haven't been in play since LBJ."

    And don't miss this line: "'Let me tell you, if I beat the Clintons, folks aren't going to ask whether I'm tough enough,' Obama said to laughter from the crowd."

    Obama's little girl doesn't exactly have a crush on Obama Girl. Obama said he didn't like the awkward position the Obama Girl video put him in.

  • Oh-eight (R): Huck's crowds in NH

    GIULIANI: The extensive New Yorker profile of Giuliani wonders whether the things that made New York City residents both love and hate Giuliani make him appealing to conservatives in the South. "It is also possible that the rest of the country knows all it wishes to know about Giuliani. It was Giuliani who was depicted in the Times as imposing 'the mores of Mayberry' on the city. Stephen DiBrienza, the former City Councilman, says, 'All the things that a lot of New Yorkers, myself included, hate about this guy are the things that are actually fuelling his campaign.'"

    No wonder most strategists don't believe Giuliani could ever put New York in play (because he's still disliked to a degree in NYC), but he could put New Jersey, Pennsylvania, or even Connecticut in play. Overall, this is as thorough of a profile as we've seen of Giuliani this campaign season. Do take special note of the problems the author points out Giuliani could have regarding his gun stance.

    Page Six reports that Giuliani will receive the British "Medal of Freedom" on September 19 from former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.

    HUCKABEE: Boston Globe's New Hampshire political reporter, James Pindell, reports on Huckabee's four-day swing to the Granite State, noting: "If crowd sizes are any indication, many took the opportunity over the weekend to give Huckabee a second look. Nearly 100 to 150 people came out to see him at several stops, about twice to three times his usual draw." So overall, it appears the straw poll surprise for the Arkansas governor worked enough for him to give him his best reception yet in New Hampshire.

    The Politico's Martin also followed Huckabee around New Hampshire and finds the candidate has found a target in his speeches: Mitt Romney.

    MCCAIN: Does McCain have a legitimate shot in New Hampshire, even now? Jennifer Donahue, of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, seems to think so -- and lays out the case in the Boston Globe. She says he understands that campaigning in New Hampshire in August is important and "that New Hampshire gives supposedly faltering front-runners a chance to come back." She also cites his improved numbers with independents and that his support for the war shouldn't hurt him in the Granite State since all the other Republican candidates support it as well.

    TANCREDO: What took Tancredo so long to jump into the Newark shooting controversy involving an illegal immigrant?

    THOMPSON: The campaign-in-waiting is starting to put Thompson's September schedule together. He's been added to the list of presidential speakers at a Michigan GOP event on Sept. 22.

    Scripps Howard News Service is the latest media organization to take a look at Thompson's Senate papers, filed at the University of Tennessee archive. "Although Thompson generally voted the pro-life position on abortion legislation during his tenure, his responses to questionnaires on the issue during his 1996 re-election campaign may raise concerns among anti-abortion activists."

  • More oh-eight: Gaffes and goofes

    The AP's Liz Sidoti looks at many of the gaffes and goofs of this election cycle. She writes that this year's theme could very well be, "Oops! What I meant was ..."

    New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg told Dan Rather for his HDNet program: "Nobody's going to elect me president of the United States. What I'd like to do is to be able to influence the dialogue. I'm a citizen."

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