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  • Dodd: Short on money, big on ideas

    From NBC's Mark Murray

    Instead of issuing a press release (or holding a conference call) detailing how much money it raised in the second quarter -- $3.25 million, about 10% of Obama's total -- Chris Dodd's presidential campaign sent First Read a memo listing what it has done on the policy front. "From being the first candidate in the Senate to call for a firm, enforceable deadline for redeploying our troops out of Iraq, to proposing a corporate carbon tax on polluters, to calling for mandatory national service for high school students, Chris Dodd is quickly emerging as the leader in the 'ideas race,'" Dodd communications director Hari Sevugan emailed us.

    (However, we're sure that the Edwards folks -- with their ambitious health-care and energy plans -- would take issue with that.)

    That said, in a presidential nominating contest, ideas and policy white papers can be co-opted, while fundraising money, buzz, and actual voters can't be.

  • Huckabee: blame the media

    From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum

    On the radio show "The Right Balance," Huckabee did not disclose how much money he has raised in Q2, but he did discuss the role of money in the campaign. He blamed the media for not paying enough attention to him. "All of [the media] will say the only issue is how come you haven't raised as much money as [the frontrunners] have?" Huckabee said. "And, of course, my response is, because you give these other guys all the attention and the time, and you keep telling everybody that there are three candidates, and if people think those are the only choices, they may not realize they can open another door and there would be another candidate there."
     
    The Arkansas governor said rising poll numbers give him hope. "We're moving upwards," he said. "Other candidates are beginning to slip backwards. I think that's exactly where we had hoped we would start being. We always looked at this as hanging in there for the long haul. I think the debates certainly helped us. Now we have to do well in the Iowa straw poll and just keep the tires on the track."
     
    If elected president, Huckabee said Day One would bring an end to the Iraq War. "I would try to bring some successful, positive, victorious conclusion to the situation in Iraq. I would make sure that we had the partnership of the other nations in that area. ... They're going to have to step up militarily, financially, politically, and diplomatically and take responsibility."

  • Sing it, Senator!

    From NBC's Carly Zakin
    "Caroline in the City," "NewsRadio," "Home Improvement," Finding Nemo," US Senate? These are the resumes of the performers involved in Showtime's  "California Dreaming." Joining Lea Thompson, Dave Foley, Patricia Richardson, and Vicki Lewis in the film's credits is Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson (D).

    The senator and two-term governor, known for his commitment to agriculture and trade, appears on the soundtrack of the film for his recording of "Western Town." The quirky dramatic comedy, originally titled "Out of Omaha," follows an Omaha family on an unconventional RV trip to the west coast. 

    Nelson recorded the song as an homage to his home state, calling it " 'an honor for [him] to be able to do [his] part to recognize Nebraska's rural heritage with a song that really speaks to the heart of what it's like to be from a western town in Nebraska. Nebraska truly is the place where the love never ends and hopefully America will consider that as they watch this movie. 'Western Town' plays over the ending credits. It's worth the wait; but if you don't think so, just tune in late.' "

    His recording is decent, although slightly flat and off pitch.

    This is not the first time the senator, known for being a practical jokester and called "Nelly" by President Bush, has been in the entertainment limelight. He has also appeared on TV's "Candid Camer," ESPN's NASCAR Today, and "Omaha The Movie."

    The film debuted on Showtime yesterday. One user comment on the film's IMDB page called it "the worst Omaha made movie ever!"

    One bad review shouldn't discourage the senator. If Al Gore can win an Oscar, perhaps a Grammy is in Nelson's future.

  • Edwards: Raise min wage to $9.50

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro

    Edwards today will call for the minimum wage to be raised to $9.50 an hour by 2012, according to his campaign. He will speak at the National Education Association's annual meeting and at Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now's (ACORN) candidates' forum in Philadelphia.

    "No one who works full-time should have to live in poverty," Edwards said in a press release. "As president, I will raise the minimum wage and put our economy back on the side of working families."

    The minimum wage is now $5.15, will rise to $5.85 on July 24 and to $7.25 in two years.

  • Clintons’ Iowa reality show

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro

    This is certainly not "Newlyweds" with Nick and Jessica, but it's probably about as close as Bill and Hillary Clinton will get to their own MTV reality show. The Clintons are campaigning together for the first time in Iowa today through Wednesday, and the campaign is pushing a new Webisode -- if you will -- of the couple's travails in the Hawkeye State through "HillCam." The campaign claims the HillCam will be "capturing their spontaneous and unscripted moments."

    A preview on the Clinton campaign Web site has an announcer with a Don LaFontaine-esque voice proclaim: "You've seen them in the White House. You've seen them in the world stage. You've even seen them as the Sopranos. But you've never seen them… reporting directly to you from Des Moines to Davenport. Introducing HillCam. Spend a few minutes every day next week with the Clintons as they travel across Iowa. Totally unvarnished. Completely unprecedented. So sign up for Hill cam at hillaryclinton.com, and you'll get special video reports as you travel the state with the Clintons. Playing all next week on a computer screen near you."

  • First thoughts

    From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin 
    *** A Second Win For Obama: For the second-straight time, Obama outraised Clinton in primary money. Yesterday, the Obama camp reported that it had raised at least $31 million in primary funds (and at least $32.5 million overall) from April to June -- which is the most money a Democratic presidential contender has ever raised in a pre-election quarter. By comparison, Clinton's camp said that it raised $21 million in primary money (and about $27 million overall). Clinton leads in the polls, has won rave reviews at the debates, and has a pretty important husband helping her all the way (more on that below). But given these advantages, how is it that someone who has served in the US Senate just 2 ½ years beaten her twice in a row in the money race? As we said on Friday, money isn't everything. But it is something. Yet if there is a downside for Obama on money now, it's that he has to keep on winning in the money race.

    *** Five Tiers: Edwards came in third, raising more than $9 million in the second quarter (which was down from the $14 million he raised in the first quarter, but on pace to meet the campaign's goal of having $40 million before Iowa). Richardson raked in $7 million, and Dodd grabbed $3.25 million. Financially, the Democratic field is officially now broken up into five tiers -- with Clinton and Obama in tier 1; Edwards and Richardson in tier 2; Dodd and Biden in tier 3; Kucinich in tier 4; and Gravel on another planet. 

    *** The GOP Numbers: None of the Republicans released their fundraising numbers yesterday (why get drowned out in the Obama story?), but we can expect their figures to start trickling out today. Will Giuliani outraise Romney when you subtract Romney's big donation to himself? And will McCain's haul be better -- or worse -- than his subpar first quarter showing? How bad could McCain's fundraising quarter be? Apparently so bad that he'd rather be in Iraq this week. Also, remember that Fred Thompson does not have to report what he raised, since he's not a full-fledged candidate. Yet.

    *** Here's Bill…: Obama's fundraising haul, though, won't keep him in the spotlight for long today. Tonight, Bill and Hillary -- in their first joint campaigning this year -- head to Iowa, and they'll stump across the entire state through July 4th. Each event is billed as a "Rally for Change," which might raise a few eyebrows given that the pair resided in the White House just seven years ago. Yet in last month's NBC/WSJ poll, Clinton had a higher score than Obama did on who would bring change to the country. Obama heads to Iowa tomorrow and is holding much smaller events, as if ceding the big rally space to the Clintons this week.

    *** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, and Kucinich speak to the National Education Association in Philadelphia, while Clinton and Edwards later address ACORN in the same city; Biden is in Iowa; Obama is in New Hampshire; and Romney is in Iowa.

    Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 40 days
    Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 63 days
    Countdown to LA GOV election: 110 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2007: 127 days
    Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 138 days
    Countdown to Iowa: 206 days
    Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 217 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2008: 491 days
    Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 568 days

  • The money chase (D)

    Obama's $31 million PRIMARY money haul topped Clinton by $10 million, and it suggests Obama may have caught Clinton in cash-on-hand, something we won't know for sure until July 15, when these FEC reports are due to be filed. The Politico's Ben Smith notes: "Clinton may be the one consistently coming out top when Democratic voters are asked who they want to be their presidential candidate, but Barack Obama seems to be the one they reach into their wallets for."

    Bloomberg -- the news organization, not the candidate -- adds, "Most of Obama's base of supporters can keep on giving. In the first quarter, about 5 percent of Clinton's donors gave the maximum allowed and can no longer be tapped. For Obama, that figure was less than 1 percent."

    The Chicago Tribune gets sound from Obama on his fundraising win. "'Together, we have built the largest grassroots campaign in history for this stage of a presidential race… We now have hundreds of thousands of Americans who are ready to demand health care for all, energy independence, and an end to this war in Iraq. That's the kind of movement that can change the special interest-driven politics in Washington and transform our country. And it's just the beginning.'"

    USA Today says that Obama "has collected more than $58 million this year. That surpasses the $37.3 million collected during the first six months of 1999 by George W. Bush, then governor of Texas… The former first lady has raised at least $53 million through the first half of the year. She also transferred an extra $10 million from her Senate campaign fund."

    The Washington Post: "The Illinois senator trails Clinton in most polls, but the favorable performance reported yesterday is expected to increase the pressure on Clinton's team. Obama was able to outrun Clinton, of New York, even after she began turning for fundraising help to her husband, Bill Clinton, the most prolific money-raiser in Democratic history."

    The Los Angeles Times notes that Edwards' $9-million haul "is more than any individual Democratic candidate raised in the same period four years ago" and yet isn't even close to the top this go-around.

    NBC's Andrew Merten notes that Richardson appeared pleased with his $7-million haul while speaking to a group of Latino voters outside Orlando, FL on Saturday. He pointed out yesterday that he is one of only three Democratic presidential candidates who increased his numbers from the first quarter to the second. Richardson joked with the crowd, saying, "I'm not going to tell you who the first two are, but you know" – obviously referring to Obama and Clinton. (The candidate Richardson was trying to compare himself with: Edwards, who didn't raise as much money this quarter as he did last quarter.)

    The Hartford Courant's Lightman reports that Dodd's haul is $3.25 million -- "10 percent of what record-setting fundraiser Barack Obama reported Sunday… Dodd's campaign vowed it would continue to press on, with no one entertaining talk of leaving the race. The senator is planning to barnstorm through 19 Iowa cities this week. 'We're exactly where we need to be to compete for the nomination and the election,' said spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan."

  • Oh-eight (R): A Thompson family affair

    Some of the GOP candidates were in Iowa over the weekend at a forum that featured both conservative tax activists and key social conservatives. With Romney leading in Iowa and by being the only front-runner to show up, he was the target of the second-tier candidates.

    GINGRICH:

    Ex-Washington Post gossip columnist Lloyd Grove finds his way back in the Post with a Gingrich profile. What caught most folks' eyes: Gingrich's comments on Fred Thompson. Gingrich: "'I think he becomes the establishment alternative,' Gingrich says. 'I've been fond of Fred ever since "The Hunt for Red October." I think he was totally convincing as an admiral.' What about Thompson's reputation for being the opposite of a workaholic? 'I don't think it's a matter of working all that hard and being all that intense if he can put together a fairly bold, Sarkozy-like program,' Gingrich says, referring to the just-elected center-right president of France. 'Fred is not Ronald Reagan, but he could be Dwight Eisenhower.' But could he have organized D-Day? 'No,' Gingrich chuckles, 'but Eisenhower couldn't have been in "The Hunt for Red October."'"

    GIULIANI:

    It looks like one of the campaign's most ardent foes -- dare we call them Swift Boat firemen? -- will be New York City firefighters. But the campaign is not going to let their charges go unanswered.One of the more under-reported parts of last week's SCOTUS rulings was what it means for Giuliani. Will social conservatives uneasy with Giuliani's positions on key social issues give him a pass, since it appears that the Court has moved to the right enough that nothing will be at risk?

    MCCAIN:

    It's McCain's sixth trip to Iraq. "The senator last was in Iraq in April and was criticized for saying he was cautiously optimistic of success even as he toured Baghdad under heavy military guard. Iraqis accused him of painting too rosy a picture and U.S. critics argued he was out of step with reality." Meanwhile, this is the header over a weekend Los Angeles Times piece: "McCain: once favorite, now finished?" It just goes to show the point we've been emphasizing for a few weeks: the media is determined to eliminate some of these candidates. But ask yourself: What incentive does McCain have for getting out now considering how none of his 3 main rivals seems to have locked up anything.

    Don't miss the McCain's Q&A in the New York Daily News on Sunday, which served as a preview of his Iraq trip.

    ROMNEY:

    July 1st marked the first day that Massachusetts' mandatory (car insurance-like) health-care program went into effect. "Although July 1 marks the beginning of the 'individual mandate' -- the legal obligation to obtain health insurance -- the real deadline is Dec. 31. When Massachusetts residents file their state tax returns next spring, they must certify that they had acceptable coverage as of the end of 2007 -- or lose the $219 personal exemption. The penalty grows steeper in subsequent years, big enough, officials hope, to persuade most holdouts to get coverage."

    At a Christian conservative forum in Iowa, Romney responded to questions over his Mormon faith by saying, "The Bible for me is the word of God. I also believe that Jesus Christ is my savior." The Sunday Des Moines Register says, "Many conservative Christians are quietly nervous about Romney's religion."

    In a somewhat contentious moment at the forum, according to the Sunday New York Daily News, "one voter asked Romney which religious text he'd rely on more for inspiration as President: the Bible or the Book of Mormon." Romney replied: "I don't know that there's any conflict at all between the values of great faiths like mine, like yours, like other faiths, like Jews who don't believe in the New Testament."

    Saturday's Boston Globe ran Part 7 of its series on Romney, and it explored his stance shifts, his ambition, and his willingness to reach across the aisle and work to find a health-care solution. 

    More on Romney's dog: Ann Romney writes a blog entry on the Romney "Five Brothers" blog: "Surprise, surprise, the media didn't get the dog story right. Our dog Seamus rode in an ENCLOSED kennel, not in the open air. And he loved it. Every time he saw it, he jumped up on the tailgate, walked in, and lay down. It was just like the kennel he curled up in at home."

    TANCREDO:

    Campaigning in Iowa, Tancredo called out Giuliani and Brownback by name on the issue of immigration. By the way, we haven't touched on this before, but doesn't the end of the immigration debate hurt Tancredo in the long run? F. THOMPSON:

    Tough to be the outsider when you have so many lobbying ties, right? The New York Times profiles Thompson's two sons and their lobbying careers. "The lobbying work that Tony Thompson and another son, Daniel, did after their father won his Senate seat suggests how far the family has traveled from Fred Thompson's early career. Not only has he parlayed his own political background into a lobbying business — a fact his opponents have seized on to challenge his outsider image — but his sons have also made lobbying a family affair."

    Thompson's camp ought to view this story as a warning shot that he only has a small window of opportunity to define his image.

    The Washington Post notes Thompson has essentially shifted from exploring candidate to likely candidate. "But even as he rushes to assemble the infrastructure for a presidential campaign, he is still struggling to define what his candidacy, and a potential Thompson presidency, will be about. Will he embrace his Southern drawl and campaign, as fellow Tennessean Lamar Alexander once did, in a Paul Bunyan-esque shirt? Or will he tout his decades as a Capitol Hill staff member, lobbyist, lawyer, senator and friend to the powerful?"

  • Oh-eight (D): The quasi-incumbent?

    CLINTON:

    It's Bill Clinton Day. The Washington Post curtain-raises the Clintons Iowa trip (which begins today) and examines the double-edged sword that is Bill Clinton. Also, don't miss the fact that apparently the Clinton camp has unveiled its first paid media in anticipation of this week's trip. "In a series of 12 photos, the mailing lays out her biography, from her days growing up in 'a middle-class family in neighboring Illinois' to 'working her way through law school.'"

    The Washington Times profiles Hillary's two largest challenges as a Democratic frontrunner: "polls showing that she has the highest voter-disapproval ratings in the general electorate of any top-tier candidate in either party, raising questions about her electability; and Mr. Obama's fundraising, which in the past two quarters outraised the former first lady through a significantly larger grass-roots base of contributors."

    DODD: The AP notes that Dodd is following the how-to manual well, but not yet getting traction. Maybe traveling and getting on the bus, gus, with Paul Simon in Iowa will help.

    EDWARDS:

    The New York Times once again profiles Elizabeth Edwards. "She has made a flurry of charged public appearances, become a regular presence advising Mr. Edwards on the campaign trail, and wields behind-the-scenes influence in many internal campaign decisions, aides said." She also claims she's less involved this time than in 2004. Really? GORE: In anticipation of his Live Earth program this week, Gore wrote an op-ed in the Sunday New York Times focused on his pet issue: climate change. It opens noting this is a "moment of decision" of the species.

    OBAMA: To frame the campaign's big money splash, manager David Plouffe released a state-of-the-race memo. Notes Politico's Ben Smith: "The case is worth checking out, but there's one near-contradiction in there that's central of the puzzle of this race. The central question: Is Hillary like an incumbent, or not?" Plouffe cites early polling in the 1980, 1988, 1992, and 2004 cycles that had Carter, Dukakis, Clinton, and Kerry well behind their Democratic primary rivals. "The 1980 Carter-Kennedy race seems a bit special here -- an unpopular president, and a Kennedy. But the other years were races without either an incumbent or a sitting or former vice president -- a 'quasi-incumbent.' Plouffe doesn't cite Mondale in 1984, Clinton in 1996, or Gore in 2000 -- incumbents or near-incumbents who dominated their primaries from start to finish. That's the model Hillary wants to follow, and there's an argument that this year is more like those, that the candidates are so well-known that the early polling does matter."

    RICHARDSON: At the NALEO forum over the weekend, Richardson received "one of the most enthusiastic receptions among the seven Democratic candidates for president." The Democrats expressed disappointment that the immigration bill did not pass and then criticized details of it.

  • More oh-eight: the Independents

    Over the weekend, the Washington Post did an extensive examination of the growing "independent" electorate, and the paper finds this group is anything but like-minded. The Post says there are five distinct subgroups of "independent" voters.
    -- The Disengaged (the indies that don't vote);
    -- The Disguised Partisans (they tend to identify with one of the two major parties but the difference between them and actual partisans is that they are MUCH more negative about politics in general);
    -- The Deliberators (classic swing voters);
    -- The Disillusioned (very upset with the political system, currently very anti-Iraq war though; open to Democrats but more open to an indie candidate);
    -- and The Dislocated (socially liberal and fiscally conservative and politically active).

    The New York Times profiles Bloomberg's presidential alter ego, Kevin Sheekey. For those trying to get to know Bloomberg World, this is the place to start.

    Gallup releases more details of its Clinton v. Giuliani match-up, noting that among all adults, Clinton leads (50%-45%), but among registered voters, Rudy narrowly leads (49%-47%). Also of note, Clinton's strength is thanks to large majorities from blacks and Hispanics. Rudy nabs just 33% of Hispanics.

  • The Bush White House

    The Washington Post notes that the lame duck president, "one at a time or in small groups, he summons leading authors, historians, philosophers and theologians to the White House to join him in the search" of how to fix or salvage his presidency. Dare we start calling stories like this "legacy watch"? The Saturday New York Times examined whether the defeat of the Senate immigration could hurt the GOP with Hispanic voters. "In some cases, views of the bill were formed more along regional than party lines, with unlikely allies like businesses interests and immigrants' rights groups. Its champion was a conservative president. Yet in terms of the politics of perception, Hispanics may have been deeply alienated by the heated rhetoric that wound around the axle of the debate, most of it stemming from a few Republican opponents and the loud echo chamber of talk radio."

    "Senate Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., said Sunday that he was ready to seek a congressional vote to hold President Bush in contempt if the White House doesn't comply with congressional subpoenas for documents and testimony about the firing of eight U.S. attorneys. 'If they don't cooperate, yes, I'd go that far,' Leahy said on NBC's Meet the Press."

    Click here to watch the entire Meet the Press episode.

  • Obama wins 2ndQ race

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    For the second-straight fundraising quarter, it appears that Barack Obama has outraised Hillary Clinton in the Democratic race for president. Earlier this afternoon, the Obama campaign announced that it had raised at least $32.5 million -- $31 million of which is dedicated for the primaries -- in the second quarter that ended yesterday.

    That's the biggest haul ever in one quarter for a Democratic presidential contender.

    The Clinton campaign has yet to release its fundraising numbers this quarter. But a few days ago, it distributed a memo indicating that it would raise about $27 million, and it's unclear how much of that haul would be in primary money versus general-election money. (A campaign can raise money for the general election, but it can't use it unless that candidate becomes the nominee.)

    In the first quarter, both Clinton and Obama raised approximately $26 million, but Obama outraised her in primary money -- about $7 million of Clinton's haul was in general-election funds, compared with about $1.5 million in general-election funds for Obama.

    In addition, the Edwards campaign today announced that it met its goal of raising $9 million this quarter, but that amount is less than the $14 million it raised in the first quarter. And on Friday, Richardson's camp said it raised at least $7 million for the quarter, up from the 6.1 million it raked in in the first quarter. 

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