From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
This is Gov. Deval Patrick's (MA) first appearance in the national spotlight. He is the only African-American governor in the country. And he didn't make any grand speeches.

From NBC's Mark Murray
It's 9:10 pm ET, and the debate hasn't started; in fact, the candidates haven't come out on the stage. Is this going to be like a soccer match, where the time for this 90-minute debate gets moved back? Or is this going to be less than a 90-minute debate?

From NBC's Chuck Todd
Here's a question that I've had all week: why didn't this debate get more attention? Where was the hype? This will be an interesting test to see just how many eyeballs public TV gets on an avg. night vs. cable news.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
I have a seat right on the edge of the red-carpeted spin area, and already a Clinton supporter has made herself available for spin. Aides for Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX-18) offered up their card to make her available.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
At the entrance to the auditorium, ushers were giving away for free Tavis Smiley's, "The Covenant in Action," a companion to Covenant with Black America.

And if you didn't know it was free by the guys giving it away, Smiley reminded you. He took the stage about 45 minutes before the debate, grabbed the mic -- book in hand -- and said, "For all those with tickets, we're giving complimentary Covenant in Action books. Be sure to pick up a copy."

About 10 minutes later, someone else took the stage, asked audience members to shut their phones off and then said, "Anyone who'd like to stay for the taping of Tavis' Friday night talk show is welcome to stay."

The taping starts an hour after the forum.

You think any candidates going to stick around?

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Harry Belafonte, Al Sharpton and former Clinton adviser Vernon Jordan.

From NBC's Mark Murray
It's 20 minutes until tonight's Democratic presidential debate at Howard University. Domenico is on site, while Chuck and I will be watching from our TVs (while also keeping an eye on tonight's NBA Draft). All three of us will be live-blogging the debate.

Be sure to check in -- and often -- for instant insight and analysis.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier today, Howard Wolfson, the communications director for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, said in a memo: "As [Clinton strategist] Mark Penn likes to say, people always ask 'can Hillary win?' but he has never had this asked of someone who is already winning. This week's national polls underscore that observation."

But those polls only tell part of the story. According to a new Mason-Dixon survey, given exclusively to NBC/MSNBC and McClatchy newspapers, Clinton is the only major presidential candidate -- either Democrat and Republican -- for whom a majority of likely general election voters say they would not consider voting. In addition, she's the only candidate who registers with a net-unfavorable rating.

In the poll, 48% say they would consider voting for Clinton versus 52% who say they wouldn't. By comparison, majorities signal they would consider voting for all other major presidential candidates or possible candidates: Giuliani (64%-36%), Fred Thompson (62%-38%), Bloomberg (61%-39%), Obama (60%-40%), Edwards (59%-41%), McCain (58%-42%), Biden (57%-43%), Richardson (57%-43%), Huckabee (56%-44%), and Romney (54%-46%).

Moreover, 39% say they recognize Clinton favorably, while 42% say they recognize her unfavorably. By contrast, every other candidate has a net-positive favorable rating: Giuliani (43%-17%), Obama (36%-21%), McCain (33%-28%), Edwards (32%-28%), Thompson (25%-12%), Romney (24%-20%), Biden (21%-20), Bloomberg (20%-18%), Richardson (19%-15%), and Huckabee (16%-12%).

The poll was taken of 625 likely general election voters from June 23-25, and has a margin of error of +/- 4%.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Here's a snapshot of how election politics may have affected voting on today's Senate immigration bill. Because the vote was procedural in nature, simply to end debate and proceed to a final vote, the "yes" votes don't necessarily mean senators would have voted "yes" for the final bill. This is especially significant because had the debate continued, there would have been more votes on amendments that could have gutted core elements of the bill.

But those voting "no" will be considered responsible -- at least in political circles -- for killing the bill. Majority Leader Harry Reid made it clear that if the vote failed, he'd pull the immigration measure from the floor.

The Presidential candidates: All of the Democratic candidates voted YES. McCain, who was part of the bipartisan coalition that crafted and supported the bill, also voted YES.  Brownback's initial vote was YES, but later, probably when the outcome was clear, switched to NO.

Senators up for reelection in 2008: On the Democratic side, all the blue state senators voted YES (Biden, Durbin, Kerry, Lautenberg, Levin, Reed). But those Democrats running in red or purples states voted NO (Baucus, Harkin, Landrieu, Pryor, Rockefeller).

Most of the Republican senators up for re-election this cycle voted NO (Alexander, Allard, Chambliss, Cochran, Coleman, Collins, Cornyn, Dole, Domenici, Enzi, Inhofe, McConnell, Roberts, Sessions, Smith, Stevens, Sununu, Warner). The exceptions, with YES votes, were Craig, Hagel, and Graham (who is one of the original and most vocal coalition members that wrote the bill).

Senate Leadership: The Republican leadership was split. GOP Leader McConnell, who's also up for re-election, voted NO. (He had voted YES on another procedural vote earlier this week.)  McConnell was joined by Texas Sens. Hutchison and Cornyn, as well as Ensign, who's responsible for running the GOP senate campaigns this cycle. Lott and Kyl split with the leadership and voted YES.

All the members of the Democratic Leadership stuck together with YES votes: Reid, Durbin, Murray, and Schumer. 

Presidential candidates
Democrats voting YES:  (all of them) Clinton, Obama, Biden, Dodd
Republicans voting YES:  McCain
Republican voting NO:  Brownback (originally "yes" but switched)

Senators up for reelection in 2008
Democrats voting Yes:
Biden, Durbin, Kerry, Lautenberg, Levin, Reed
Democrats voting NO:
Baucus, Harkin, Landrieu, Pryor, Rockefeller
 
Republicans voting YES:
Craig, Graham, and Hagel
Republicans voting NO:
Alexander, Allard, Chambliss, Cochran, Colman, Collins, Cornyn, Dole, Domenici, Enzi, Inhofe, McConnell, Roberts, Sessions, Smith, Stevens, Sununu, Warner

Party Switchers
Democrats voting NO:
Baucus, Bayh, Bingaman, Brown, Byrd, Dorgan, Harkin, Landrieu, McCaskill, Pryor, Rockefeller, Sanders, Stabenow, Tester, and Webb.

Republicans voting YES:
Bennett, Craig, Graham, Gregg, Hagel, Kyl, Lott, Lugar, Martinez, McCain, Snowe, and Specter.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro

A Suffolk University/WHDH-TV New Hampshire poll shows Clinton with a substantial lead over Obama, and Romney and Giuliani are in a statistical tie. It also shows Edwards slipping and Richardson rising.Clinton led the Democratic pack with 37%; Obama was second with 19%; Edwards and Richardson were tied at 9%. On the Republican side, Romney had 26%; Giuliani was next with 22%; McCain and Fred Thompson were tied at 13%. The margin of error for the poll is 4.38%.

The survey finds Clinton's lead over Obama is significant with voters 56 and older, who went for Clinton overwhelmingly, 47%-15%. Conversely, Obama and Clinton were virtually tied with younger voters (ages 18 to 45) with Obama having a slight 26%-25% edge.

Interestingly, when Gore is factored in, he would actually be in the lead. Three in 10 Clinton supporters say they would switch their vote to Gore if he were to get in the race.

And if Bloomberg jumps in, Republicans are the ones who would be hurt. Bloomberg would get about 6%-8% of a general election vote, according to the poll, and in all six general election scenarios, Democrats improved or maintained their margins.

From NBC's Mark Murray

Not to be outdone by the Obama campaign -- after it leaked the number of donors it expects for the second quarter -- Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson has released a memo discussing its fundraising projections, Clinton's electability, and even Bill Clinton's campaign help. On its second quarter fundraising: "We expect to bring in about what we did in the First Quarter, or slightly more, which should put us in the range of $27 million. To put that figure in some perspective, it is more than any Democrat has ever raised in the second quarter of the "off" year. While that figure is record setting, we do expect Senator Obama to significantly outraise us this quarter." (Again, we'll point out that it would be a significant story if Obama beats Clinton in primary money for two-straight quarters, especially with her and her husband's connections.)

On Hillary's electability: "As [Clinton strategist] Mark Penn likes to say, people always ask 'can Hillary win?' but he has never had this asked of someone who is already winning. This week's national polls underscore that observation."

On Bill: "President Clinton hits the campaign trail with Hillary next week, when they'll barnstorm together across Iowa. Later this month, he'll campaign with Hillary in New Hampshire. We know that President Clinton is a huge asset in this race. He's uniquely positioned to talk about Hillary's biography and her lifelong commitment to children and families because he knows her life's story better than anyone."

From NBC's Mark Murray and Carly Zakin

As we mentioned earlier today, the Obama camp announced that 138,000 new donors have contributed to the campaign in this second fundraising quarter, up from the 104,000 donors who contributed in the first. And by the time the second quarter comes to an end on Saturday, Team Obama is expecting that a total of 250,000 donors will have given to the campaign in the first six months of this year.

To put those numbers in perspective, the Obama folks handed First Read a research document of past newspaper clippings showing that Howard Dean -- Mr. Grassroots/Netroots of the 2003-4 cycle -- had about 59,000 donors in the second quarter of 2003 and approximately 70,000 donors in the first six months of that year.

And for the entire year of 2003, it was reported that about 280,000 people donated to his campaign -- a figure which Obama will seem to almost equal in just half a year.

From NBC's Carrie Dann

Hours after speaking at Pat Robertson's Regent University, a must-stop destination for Republicans wooing Christian voters, Giuliani strode through the doors of a Jewish temple in Maryland to address members of another faith. The contrast was not lost on Giuliani, who joked, "If I hit a Catholic church tonight, I'm all set!" 
 
But aside from the late-night comedy potential of the mayor's schedule Tuesday, the back-to-back speeches also offered some intriguing insights into how Giuliani tailors his anti-terror message to each of his audiences. 
 
"Number One: I will keep America on offense in the Terrorist's War on us," he declared to thunderous applause at both venues, reading aloud from a credit-card-sized list of his campaign "commitments" theatrically fished from his jacket pocket. The basic message of both speeches was the same, but Giuliani tweaked its angle substantially during his storm-delayed flight from Virginia Beach to DC.
 
Sharing a stage with televangelist Robertson early in the day, Giuliani painted the war on terror as a broad struggle of good versus evil, saying that America's ideals "come from God." He bewailed political opportunism, appealing to the particularly sharp disdain of many Evangelicals for moral relativism. And, yes, he did jokingly bring up that his "Twelve Commitments" sound a lot like another list they might have read about in the Old Testament. 
 
At B'nai Israel Congregation a few hours later, Giuliani's description of "Islamic terrorism" went from macro to micro. Although he described the same fronts on the war on terror -- Iran, Israel, and Iraq -- he zoomed in on the past and present conflicts most relevant to his Jewish audience. He called the Hamas-Fatah crossfire in Gaza a "microcosm" of what could happen in Iraq upon a precipitous US troop withdrawal. At Regent, Giuliani accused Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat of disingenuously "leading us down the primrose path" during the 1990s. But that criticism paled in comparison to his labeling Arafat a "horrible assassin" before the pro-Israel crowd.

Perhaps most dramatically, he freely invoked the name of Hitler and drew specific parallels between victims of terrorism and of the Holocaust. Not so at Regent.

The mayor's ability to modify his anti-terror battle cry may be one reason that he has rallied support among some unlikely groups. It's worth noting, however, that Giuliani's deft portrayals of the problem of terrorism are not always matched by specific solutions. Last night, he admitted some uncertainty about the resolution of the Hamas versus Fatah conflict, saying he'll have to "leave that to other people to figure out." Earlier this month, he struck a similarly ambiguous tone on Iraq, which he said was "in the hands of other people." But his platform is, in some ways, built upon the criticism that his rivals fail to acknowledge the gravity of a looming terrorist threat. If the polls are right, a lot of voters are content to say that recognizing the problem -- for now -- is the first step to recovery.

From NBC's Carrie Dann

GOP presidential hopeful Sam Brownback was very nervous for 11 minutes this morning. That's the time that elapsed between his initial "Aye" vote for cloture on the Senate's immigration bill today -- essentially an expression of support for the Bush-backed overhaul -- and a change to "Nay" before the vote was over.

Brownback likely recognized that a vote in favor of the bill, which is deeply unpopular among many Republicans who consider it "amnesty" for illegal immigrants, would not play well in the GOP presidential race or in a potential re-election bid in his native Kansas (he's up in 2010). He's supported the bill up until now, and voted to bring the measure to the Senate floor earlier in the week.

***Update*** At 2:10 pm ET, Brownback's Senate office issued a press release entitled "BROWNBACK VOTES AGAINST CLOTURE ON IMMIGRATION BILL," but it didn't mention he voted for the bill today before he voted against it. "We need comprehensive immigration reform, but the country is not accepting of this bill," Brownback stated in the press release. "We need to listen to the American people on both timing and substance. We need to help 'the widow and orphan and foreigner amongst us,' but must do so in a way and at a time the American people support. This is not yet the right way. We should let the topic rest for now while we work diligently to secure our borders. Americans support legal immigration, not illegal immigration. We desire to be compassionate but demand adherence to the rule of law."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
It will be interesting to see if tonight's Howard University debate panel asks Obama about his track record as the first African-American president of the Harvard Law Review. The Chicago Tribune's David Mendell highlights in his upcoming book "Obama: From Promise to Power" that Obama's loudest critics at the Law Review were black students who believe Obama didn't promote enough minorities to editor positions. Obama said in the book that while he feels strongly about promoting diversity, he made promotions at the Law Review based solely on ability and didn't want to appear unfair. Obama was thrust to power at the Law Review, Mendell reports, by the conservative bloc of students who didn't like the liberal students' tone and thought Obama, a professed liberal, would at least take their opinions seriously.

Since his famed 2004 DNC speech, Obama has used centrist language on the issue of affirmative action. Obama said affirmative action is "a useful tool but a limited tool in terms of advancement" and added that education should be a higher priority. "There are a whole bunch of young inner-city children right now that aren't touched by affirmative action because they won't get to go to college because they're dropping out of school." (Richmond Times-Dispatch, 9/21/06)

Also: "Promoting diversity is a compelling national interest, but it has to be done in a way that is not a back-door use of quotas and takes into account the full record of the students, not just race and test scores." (Chicago Tribune questionnaire, 10/18/04)

It remains to be seen if African-Americans and African-American leaders will fully take to Obama, who is not seen as an "empowerment" candidate.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
By a 47-53 vote, supporters of an immigration bill failed to muster the 60 votes needed to end debate on the legislation.

*** Update *** The vote was 46-53. More on that in a bit...

From NBC's Mark Murray 

The AP: "The Supreme Court on Thursday rejected integration plans in two major public school districts but left the door open for using race to assign students in limited circumstances. The decision in cases affecting schools in Louisville, Ky., and Seattle could imperil similar plans in hundreds of districts nationwide, and it further restricts how public school systems may attain racial diversity. The court split, 5-4, with Chief Justice John Roberts announcing the court's judgment. The court's four liberal justices dissented."

Hillary Clinton was the first presidential candidate out of the gate with a statement on the decision: "Today, the Court turned its back on the promise of Brown vs. Board of Education that students of different racial backgrounds deserve an opportunity to attend school together... Once again, the Roberts Court has shown its willingness to erode core constitutional guarantees. It is a set back for all of us who are on the long march toward racial equality and the building of a stronger more unified America. As President, I will fight to restore Brown's promise and create an education system where all children have an equal chance to learn and excel together."

From NBC's Chris Donovan

New Hampshirites might get a surprise this summer when they answer the knock at their door and they see The Question Mark Suit Guy.
  
Maryland resident Matthew Lesko -- the author and infomercial personality who has been telling Americans how they can get free services and money from the federal government for years -- proudly displays a Barack Obama bumper sticker on his question mark-covered car, and confirmed that he is supporting the Illinois senator for president. In a phone interview, Lesko said he has contributed to Obama's campaign and is "very excited" about his candidacy, in part because of Obama's focus on "getting together and helping each other" and getting young people involved and interested in the process.

One of those young people is Lesko's son, Max, who after volunteering for the campaign has recently been hired as a paid employee of Obama's New Hampshire team. Lesko says he plans on heading up to the Granite State sometime in the near future and knocking on doors for the campaign. Lesko said he considers himself an independent, and in the past he's supported Maryland's 8th District Congressman Chris Van Hollen. And according to the FEC's web site, he gave Bill Bradley $500 for his 2000 presidential run.

When asked if he had any advice for the Obama campaign, Lesko points out that they could take advantage of government offices that provide guidance on election laws, rather than having to spend a lot of money in legal fees to get the same information. As to whether or not the campaign has sought his expertise on raising money, he notes, "I haven't been asked." Lesko said he has yet to meet Obama, but hopes to soon.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Debate Number Three:

For the third time this campaign season, the eight Democratic presidential candidates -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson -- participate in a debate. This time, it's from Howard University in DC, and it airs on PBS at 9:00 pm ET. Organizers are billing the event as the first "panel exclusively comprised of journalists of color" in primetime: PBS' Tavis Smiley, NPR's Michel Martin, syndicated columnist Ruben Navarrette Jr., and USA Today's DeWayne Wickham. And the candidates will be asked questions on health care, Katrina relief, the economy, and the environment.
 
*** What To Watch For: Given the audience, the issues, and the panelists, this debate is definitely on Obama's turf. Can he manage that expectation, as well as continue to demonstrate that he's more than an African-American man running for president? Also, the debate once again will likely feature the Democratic field's diversity with the African American Obama, the Hispanic Richardson, and the female Clinton. Organizers will be holding a similar debate for the Republican candidates on September 27 in Baltimore. But how awkward will it be for a GOP that wants to court minority voters to feature what's likely to be 11 white males on the stage?

*** Who Else Is TiVOing Tonight's NBA Draft? With voters more in vacation mode than voting mode, tonight's debate also has one other competitor to deal with -- and that's the NBA Draft. Forget Clinton vs. Obama. The biggest debate in the sports world these days is Oden vs. Durant. Actually, the debate is very similar to Clinton vs. Obama. Oden is seen as an intimidating presence and ready to lead. However, Durant's upside is considered greater than Oden, and the guy could be the Next Great Thing in the sport. But his downside is that he still hasn't filled out. Sound familiar?

*** The $30-Plus-Million-Dollar Man? The Obama campaign has told the AP that 138,000 new donors have contributed to Obama this second quarter, up from the 104,000 donors that gave to him in the first quarter. The article adds that the average contribution is likely to be less than the $247-per-person donation in the first quarter (perhaps due to that dinner contest with Obama for people who gave $5). But by our math, if those 138,000 new donors contributed, say, $150 each, that's more than $20 million (and one only has to move the average donation up to $200 to get over $25 million and so on...). And we're not even counting those 104,000 donors who gave in the first quarter.

*** Do Or Die: This morning, the Senate holds its cloture vote on the comprehensive immigration bill. NBC's Ken Strickland notes that 60 votes are required to bring debate to an end, putting the legislation on the path to a final vote. But whether it gets those 60 votes is too close to call. If it fails to do so, it will likely be the end of this -- or any other -- immigration legislation until 2009.

*** Back-To-Back:

A day after speaking in South Carolina, Fred Thompson takes his soon-to-be presidential campaign to another early primary state: New Hampshire, where he headlines a Senate Republican Victory PAC fundraiser. By the way, the New York Times interviews another person who wasn't impressed with Thompson's speech in South Carolina. "We drove an hour and a half to get here, and he didn't say anything new," the person said. "I kind of wish, if he's going to run, announce it. It seems a little bit like a game play. I agree with his conservative stance, but we need specifics."

*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Giuliani is in Sacramento, CA; Huckabee delivers the keynote address at the World Congress Weight Management Conference in Chicago; McCain is in DC for Senate business and fundraisers; and Romney charges hard to the end of the second quarter with three fundraising events (in Connecticut, Virginia, and Pennsylvania).

Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 44 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 66 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 114 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 131 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 142 days
Countdown to Iowa: 210 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 221 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 495 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 572 days

McClatchy curtain-raises the debate, which will feature a number of African-American journalists focusing on concerns of African-American voters. And the story notes that, to date, Clinton and Obama have split the black vote in polls.

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) will introduce the Democratic candidates, his first step into the national spotlight. He has not decided whom he'll endorse, though it's speculated he's leaning towards Obama.

CLINTON: The Politico is the latest to report on the Clinton campaign's alleged negative-message polling.

EDWARDS:

The campaign should be happy this morning, as the New York Times has picked up on their Coulter feud with just days to go before the end of the 2nd quarter. Elizabeth Edwards also hit the morning-show circuit today, including an appearance on TODAY. She also gave an interview to the Des Moines Register to follow-up on her confrontation with Coulter. "Edwards said she did not consult her husband before making the call, though she said campaign aides tracked down the phone number for her. She was sitting in an airport between campaign visits when she saw Coulter on television and called the show."

How much is Coulter a part of the campaign's last-minute fundraising strategy? NBC's Shawna Thomas reports that it sent out an email to its text-messaging subscribers letting them know they can text the campaign to listen to an exchange between Elizabeth Edwards and Coulter.

GORE: Fast Company does a profile of Gore and his post-vice presidency financial success, and the piece claims he may be worth at least $100 million now. During his run for president in 2000, his assets were in the low seven figures.

RICHARDSON:

The Washington Post's Milbank "sketches" Bill Richardson and leads: "Running for the vice presidency is a delicate operation, but Bill Richardson seems to be getting the hang of it." Richardson "is running for president, of course, but should that fail he has already mastered the first responsibility of the running mate: Don't overshadow the top of the ticket. This trait was in evidence yesterday when Richardson gave a lunchtime foreign policy speech in Washington at the exact moment Hillary Clinton was giving one of her own… Clinton's and Richardson's speeches had much in common yesterday; Clinton spoke about 'engaging with those with whom we disagree' and Richardson argued 'that we must talk to the Iranians with no preconditions.' But they departed on style: Richardson ponderous, Clinton platitudinous."

The Washington Times also covers Richardson's speech on Iran yesterday: "Mr. Richardson, a former American ambassador to the United Nations, said the United States must approach Iran with 'a stick in one hand and a carrot in the other and urged the government to have broad talks with Iran with no 'preconditions.'

We received this release from the campaign last night: "… Richardson's campaign for the Democratic Presidential nomination is building momentum and gaining new support across the country. Earlier this week, the campaign released a poll showing a huge jump in Governor Richardson's support in Iowa. In fact, among the likeliest Iowa caucus-goers, Governor Richardson is now polling ahead of Senator Barack Obama… Also today, respected polling website Pollster.com added Governor Richardson to its 'Top Democrat' tracking charts. In doing so, Pollster.com became the latest media observer to confirm what the voters already know: Bill Richardson has broken into the top tier."

Just curious, but can you really be considered a top tier candidate if you have to send a press release declaring that one Web site said you should be in the top tier? The reality: The Democratic field is now four tiers: Clinton and Obama in tier 1; Edwards and Richardson in tier 2; Biden and Dodd in tier 3, and Dennis and Mike in the peanut gallery.

GIULIANI:

The Los Angeles Times examines the Giuliani stump speech and the candidate on the trail, and it concludes that terrorism is his running mate. As we noted yesterday, there is a new poll that suggests Republicans are perhaps willing to look past Giuliani's pro-choice stance. But the New York Daily News says other polls paint a "darker picture." The New York Post also reports Giuliani slipping in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- thanks to Fred Thompson. 

MCCAIN:

The Washington Post looks at how immigration has been deadly to McCain's campaign. A top fundraiser for McCain, "who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to talk for the campaign, was more blunt: 'It's hurting with the main money guys. Overall, it's definitely a negative.' He added that the constant barrage of criticism from the likes of Rush Limbaugh is making it difficult to raise money from the conservative wing of the party. 'Like it or not, our base listens to that stuff,' the fundraiser said. 'Whether it's a good bill or a bad bill or an indifferent bill doesn't matter. The folks who are listening to that stuff, it's hard to persuade them with facts.'"

In an interview with the Des Moines Register, McCain played down his second-quarter fundraising expectations. "'I am confident we'll have enough money to do what we need to do; I'm pretty confident we're not as good as some of the others,' McCain said in the telephone interview. 'I haven't seen theirs. I'm satisfied with the level. It's been very difficult.'"

An RNC committeewoman from New Hampshire is stepping down to head McCain's New Hampshire push.

ROMNEY:

The Boston Globe has its fifth part in its Mitt Romney series: The Olympian. "Romney knew his political future hung on the fate of the [Salt Lake City Olympic] Games." 'If this doesn't work, I can come back to private life, but I won't be anything anymore in public life,' he confided." The Globe also notes that despite Romney pledging to not take severance pay for his work at the Olympic Games, "public records indicate he did otherwise. Romney not only accepted a $476,000 severance package from the Salt Lake Organizing Committee, according to federal tax records, but he helped to lobby the committee for similarly large pacts for his 25 senior managers, 17 of whom contributed to his 2002 Massachusetts gubernatorial campaign or the state Republican Party soon after the Winter Games." Romney's campaign says he donated the money to charity.

Deep doo-doo? Time's Ana Marie Cox gets a reaction from PETA on Romney's treatment of his dog as reported by the Boston Globe in Part 4 of the paper's Romney series. The Globe reported that Romney and family had strapped their Irish setter to the roof of their car on a trip from Massachusetts to Canada. The dog made his opinion known, and he and the car had to be hosed off. "Thinking of the wind, the weather, the speed, the vulnerability, the isolation on the roof, it is commonsense that any dog who's under extreme stress might show that stress by losing control of his bowels: that alone should have been sufficient indication that the dog was, basically, being tortured," said Ingrid Newkirk, PETA president. What's worse, it may actually be against Massachusetts law.

F. THOMPSON:

The candidate's trip to South Carolina raised some nervous eyebrows in rival camps as he met with unaffiliated GOP Gov. Mark Sanford. Sanford played down the visit saying it was just two old friends catching up, but he did add: "I think he brings a spark that a lot of people find interesting." Earlier in the day, The Columbia State noted Thompson, in his first visit to South Carolina, "showed Wednesday he could fulfill the unmet hopes of the most conservative voters. Stressing his conservative credentials, Thompson delivered a pro-military, anti-illegal immigration speech to a group of Republicans at the Clarion Townhouse downtown."

After his speech, Thompson discussed his decision to hold off on formally announcing, the New York Times writes. "'As I've said a couple of times, it's too late to play by somebody else's rules even if I wanted to, and I don't want to,' he said, adding later, "I think the timeframe that I got in is just about right."

The Thompson campaign is posting audio responses to criticisms. Here's Thompson after South Carolina, from his Web site, responding to charges that he was a lobbyist. He said the attacks from the Democrats show he must be scaring them. And he notes the most recent "lobbying" act he committed involved "lobbying" the U.S. Senate to confirm John Roberts.

It looks like Obama's camp is trying to one-up Clinton's camp on the fundraising front by being the first of the major candidates to tease out something from their 2nd quarter FEC report. The AP gets the scoop that the campaign has nearly 250,000 donors, up from the 104,000 donors that gave to Obama in the 1st quarter. "The campaign was announcing a goal Thursday of attracting 250,000 donors by midnight on Saturday, the next money reporting deadline. It was 7,214 short as of Wednesday. The campaign said it collected 335,953 contributions — meaning that many individuals made repeat donations — and its goal will be to reach 350,000 by the deadline."  Aides to his top competitor, Hillary Clinton "say she will match her $26 million from the first quarter. That another candidate could even approach her fundraising prowess was unthinkable six months ago."

Meanwhile, the candidate many expect to lead the GOP field in fundraising, Mitt Romney, is now noting that Fred Thompson's flirtation with a run has hurt his fundraising a bit.

One of China's top government officials met with representatives of six presidential candidates during a trip to the U.S. last week. The campaign reps this Chinese official met with: Biden, Clinton, Edwards, McCain, Obama and Romney. Among the topics were Darfur and the Beijing Olympics.

A new Gallup poll shows that Hispanics are identifying with Democrats by a greater number than in 2004. A similar finding was made in our most recent NBC/WSJ poll. In the piece, USA Today notes that, so far, the chief beneficiary of this Hispanic movement toward the Democrats is Hillary Clinton.

Finally, Daily Kos, the leading blog on the left, unveiled the results of its monthly user straw poll, and in it, Edwards lead grew slightly over Obama. In May, he was up 15 points; this month, he's up 18 points. Perhaps the most notable fact is that Obama is at a seven-month low; Clinton, of course, is in the low single digits. From Kos himself: "Not much analysis since I'm headed out of here in a few hours. But in short, the Gravel boomlet is over. Richardson continues to tank. He had his own serious boomlet here while his poll numbers were non existent. Now, as his candidacy gains steam in the early states, he fades here. I'm surprised Obama isn't doing better than this and I suspect his numbers will improve. Still, the Daily Kos primary is a two-man race."

This morning at 10:30 am ET, the Senate will take a critical procedural vote on the immigration bill, NBC's Strickland says. The "cloture" vote requires 60 to pass and would bring debate to an end, putting the bill on the path to a final vote. As with most things on this bill, the vote is too close to call. But if it fails -- and it very well could -- the immigration bill would likely be pulled from the floor again (and will probably dead for the rest of the year, if not the rest of Bush's presidency).

However, if there are at least 60 votes, the Senate would vote on some more amendments with a vote on final passage on Friday. It is reasonable to assume if they get 60 votes for "cloture" Thursday, they should be able to pass the bill on Friday.

The New York Times: "[S]enators of both parties said they were unsure the bill would clear that [60-vote] hurdle. Several senators who voted to keep the bill alive Tuesday said they would probably oppose efforts to shut off debate." The article adds that to get to this point today, the Senate yesterday killed amendments from both the left and the right for major changes in the legislation.

The Washington Times adds that the legislation hangs on by a thread today, just two days after the bill was revived, as patience runs out and supporters begin to balk. The change began "after a messy day in the chamber yesterday, with dozens of objections, arguments on the floor and five amendments defeated, at least a half-dozen senators said publicly or privately that their patience has run out."

Already this morning, Bush formally announced Admiral Michael Mullen as the new Joint Chiefs chairman. Later in the morning, he makes remarks at the Naval War College in Rhode Island. With Dick Lugar and other GOP senators pealing away from the Bush Administration on Iraq, Biden's presidential campaign yesterday sent First Read a research document demonstrating that Biden -- for the last six months -- has stressed that the only way to change Bush's policies in Iraq is to get GOP lawmakers to split from Bush. "Senator Biden said from the outset of the surge that the president would not change course until his party deserted him," Biden campaign spokesman Mark Paustenbach said. "That process is hopefully beginning." 

Also, GQ has an interview with outgoing White House counselor Dan Bartlett, and he makes this confession: "There was never a more benign incident that turned into a bigger messaging problem than 'Mission Accomplished.' It set the wrong tone for what became a protracted, difficult mission. If there was ever a do-over, that would be it." And on Rumsfeld: "There was a comment Rumsfeld made in one of those books where he claimed that he took the phrase mission accomplished out of the speech itself but that he couldn't get the banner pulled down. That's just wrong. I went back and looked at every draft of the speech. That phrase was never in it."