From NBC's Mark Murray
Note that Edwards, Clinton, and Obama are standing next to each other -- in the middle. Coincidence?

From NBC's Mark Murray
Chris Dodd's camp is up with the first statement of the debate -- about 15 minutes before it begins -- noting that he "has continued to play a leading role in the fight to end our involvement in Iraq's civil war," and also detailing his plan to help curb global warming.

From NBC's Mark Murray
MANCHESTER, NH -- One thing is certainly different from the first Democratic debate -- the weather. It's chilly and rainy here, compared with the heat and humidity in Orangeburg, SC back in April.

But will the debate heat things up? We shall see. One Edwards aide drew our attention to a veiled shot Edwards took at Clinton (and perhaps Obama too) yesterday in Iowa. "Now is not the time for careful, it is not the time for cautious, it is not the time for political calculation. It is the time for strength, it is the time for backbone, it is the time for courage, it is the time for bold, visionary leadership. And the place that begins is on the war in Iraq." A preview of things to come tonight?

The media filing center -- located in a basketball gymnasium here at Saint Anselm College -- is beginning to buzz with activity. Kick off is in 30 minutes.

From NBC's Chuck Todd

Just a quick reminder: NBC's Mark Murray is on the ground in N.H. at St. Anselm College, site of tonight's Democratic debate. Both of us will be live-blogging the debate bringing attention to things we think either WILL be newsworthy or SHOULD be newsworthy.  Check in early and often. Here are some early things we'll be looking for

-- Which 2nd tier Democrat will take the first shot at Clinton? Chris Dodd, Joe Biden and Bill Richardson are all struggling to climb into the 1st tier.  Dodd and Richardson, for instance, have been aggressive on the TV airwaves, drawing both subtle and not-so-subtle contrasts with the frontrunners. For my money, I'm guessing Dodd may be the aggressor tonight.

-- Will Obama mark time are attempt make a mark? If I were in charge of his debate strategy, I'm not sure what I'd do. It's too early to engage Clinton. Maybe I'd try to find a foil (a la Giuliani and Ron Paul) and try and get THE soundbite that way. It's a tough call; he's been stagnant as far as the national press corps is concerned so there will be some in the media LOOKING for Obama to do something to shake things up a bit.

-- Speaking of shaking things up, I'd expect Edwards to take a few subtle jabs at both Obama and Clinton. I think he may try to lump the two as part of the establishment and flash some outsider credentials.

 

From NBC's Mark Murray
The Republican National Committee has announced it will air a radio ad in New Hampshire on the eve of the Democratic presidential debate there that slams Clinton, Edwards, and Obama for opposing the just-passed Iraq supplemental. The ad features New Hampshire State Representative Al Baldasaro, a retired United States Marine who fought in Iraq during the Gulf War, who says:

"A few weeks ago, Barack Obama said he didn't want to play chicken with the troops and create a situation where they wouldn't have the equipment they need. Last month, Hillary Clinton said 'of course' she would fund our troops. And John Edwards said in mid-May, 'it's time to support our troops.' And yet they were all against an emergency supplemental bill to fund our troops in Iraq... Is politics more important than our troops in harm's way?"

Of course, both Clinton and Obama voted for the first Iraq supplemental that contained a timetable for withdrawal, which Bush vetoed. And all three Democrats opposed the supplemental that passed because it didn't contain that timetable.

From NBC's Andrew Merten
Two of the current top-tier GOP presidential candidates have had to field questions in the past two days about Fred Thompson's apparent presidential bid, and they're making an effort to appear unfazed by the addition. Speaking to reporters in Memphis this morning, McCain quipped, "He should be president –- he's already been president two or three times. I've seen him in the movies," adding that he doesn't believe there is any doubt Thompson will run.

Giuliani also had to address the subject of the growing GOP field while speaking in New York yesterday. When asked if he's concerned that a potential Thompson run would hurt him in the polls, the former mayor smiled and said, "There are now ten Republican candidates, if there are eleven or twelve it's not going to change things very much," adding that more choices is better for the party. Giuliani did become a bit defensive, though, reminding his audience that he's had more executive experience than most of his competitors. 

From NBC's Mark Murray and Joel Seidman
Well, Fred Thompson jumped the gun on us. We and others had reported that the "Law & Order" star would file papers this Monday to establish a "testing the water" presidential committee. But according to news from the AP -- which we've confirmed -- he filed that paperwork today in Nashville, TN.

In addition, we've learned that Thompson is firmly booked to appear on The Tonight Show With Jay Leno on June 12.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says that the House would have a tough time passing an immigration measure should the Senate fail to do so. As it stands right now, the House is scheduled to begin its own immigration debate in July, assuming that the Senate does in fact pass something. Senate leaders have set a goal of finishing their version of the measure by the end of next week -- though many are skeptical about the chances of getting it done that quickly, considering the many amendments and hurdles that remain.

Pelosi says House Democrats are likely to take a different tack on the issue of family unification, or "chain" migration. The base Senate bill de-emphasizes familial ties as a basis for admittance into the country, establishing a point system that takes into account levels of education and other criteria instead. This week the Senate will tackle several attempts to weaken or kill that provision authored by Sen. Bob Menendez (D), with Barack Obama as a co-sponsor.

Pelosi also says that the guest-worker program will be a target of Democratic interest in the House. Many Democrats feel that the program would "undermine the wage scale" for American workers, she says. Pelosi called for the president to continue to speak out on the issue. Ironically, it was President Bush's comments on immigration earlier this week in Georgia that have angered conservatives and led Republican supporters of the Senate's "grand bargain" to wish the president would tone it down. "The president is stirring it up," said one top GOP aide. "It's not the smartest move."

From NBC's Mark Murray
For those who will watching the upcoming presidential debates on Sunday (Democratic one) and Tuesday (GOP one) in New Hampshire, here's the format:
-- both will last two hours and be free of commercials;
-- in the first hour of each debate, the candidates will receive questions from CNN's Wolf Blitzer, WMUR-TV political director Scott Spradling, and Union Leader state House bureau chief Tom Fahey;
-- and in the second hour, the candidates will move from behind their lecterns and receive questions from undecided registered voters

From NBC's Mark Murray
Sometimes you have to work a bit harder when you're not a presidential front-runner. Want evidence? Just take this weekend, when Biden, Dodd, and Richardson will be speaking on Saturday morning at the New Hampshire Democratic Party state convention; then they'll fly to the Hawkeye State to address an Iowa Democratic Party dinner later that evening; and then they'll fly back to New Hampshire to participate in Sunday's debate. Whew.

By comparison, Clinton, Edwards, and Obama won't be attending the New Hampshire convention (they'll be sending surrogates instead), and Obama is skipping the Iowa dinner.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
The White House says that chief of Staff Josh Bolten has "a few folks in mind" to replace the departing Dan Bartlett as communications counselor. The White House expects that a choice will be made and that person in place before Bartlett leaves around July 4th in order to have "overlap."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Breaking News: At deadline, we got wind that White House adviser Dan Bartlett has decided to leave the White House to pursue opportunities in the private sector. So the exodus continues. Who's next? Who will stay until the end? Mr. Rove, what say you?

*** 38 Days Later: To us at least, it seems like the first Democratic presidential debate was just yesterday. But it actually took place on April 26, and much has happened in the Dem race since then. Feingold-Reid. The Iraq supplemental. The Senate immigration deal. Obama's health-care plan. The Clinton camp's Iowa memo. The new biographies on Clinton. And the revelation that Edwards earned nearly $500,000 in 2006 from that hedge fund. Most -- if not all -- of that will likely come up at the second Democratic debate that occurs on Sunday in New Hampshire.

*** NIE, Yeah You Know Me: Yet if we had to guess, the new development that might create the most fodder at the debate is a five-year-old National Intelligence Estimate. In their new book (and magazine article) on Hillary Clinton, investigative reporters Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta Jr. allege that she never read the NIE before casting her war vote, which the campaign doesn't deny. Dodd didn't read it, and neither did Edwards (despite what he might have said on Wednesday). Interestingly, the Biden camp tells First Read that the Delaware senator DID read it -- or at least a draft version of it, which the campaign says had no substantial differences from the final version.

*** The Expectations Game: The second GOP debate saw the candidates more comfortable going after each other, especially the second-tier guys. Those in the Democrats' second tier -- particularly Dodd -- are likely feeling a sense of urgency and need a breakout performance in order to move the money and poll needles. While Clinton and Obama are less interested in going after each other now, the others certainly have an incentive. Remember, there's just one month left in the fundraising quarter, and while Clinton and Obama are apparently having little trouble, the same can't be said of the rest. A strong debate performance could be worth $2-5 million to someone.

*** So Many Events, So Little Time: The Sunday debate isn't the only big event this weekend. On Saturday morning, Biden, Dodd, Gravel, Kucinich, and Richardson address the New Hampshire Democratic Party state convention. Later in the day, Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, and Richardson speak at an Iowa Democratic Party awards dinner. (Yes, that's right: Biden, Dodd, and Richardson are hitting both.) Also on Saturday, Fred Thompson addresses the Virginia GOP -- at the same time as Romney gives a speech in Thompson's backyard of Tennessee.

*** Now We Know Why…: Fred Thompson is opening a "testing the waters" instead of a full-fledged committee apparently for financial reasons. For the month of June, Thompson's voice will be heard in radio ads for a company called LifeLock.

*** On The Trail: Biden attends a house party in New Hampshire hosted by state Sen. Lou D'Allesandro; McCain hits a fundraiser in Memphis, TN before holding a town hall in Des Moines, IA; Obama meets with the Culinary Workers Union in Las Vegas and then heads to Seattle for his campaign kick off there; and Richardson raises money in New Mexico.

Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 17 days
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 24 days
Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 70 days
Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 94 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 140 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 157 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 168 days
Countdown to Iowa: 226 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 248 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 521 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 598 days

The New York Times reports that on Wednesday, Edwards told an interviewer at a Google-sponsored in California "that he had read the classified October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate before voting to authorize force in Iraq, but his campaign retracted the statement yesterday. A spokesman for Mr. Edwards said the candidate had 'simply misunderstood the question' and noted that Mr. Edwards had read only a declassified version of the intelligence report."

The Politico has more -- including a YouTube clip -- on what Edwards said about the NIE on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Valerie Plame Wilson is suing the CIA "over its refusal to allow her to publish a memoir that would discuss how long she had worked for the agency. Although that information is set out in an unclassified letter to Ms. Wilson that has been published in the Congressional Record, the C.I.A. contends that her dates of service remain classified and may not be mentioned in 'Fair Game,' the memoir Ms. Wilson hopes to publish in October."

Meanwhile, Scooter Libby's defense lawyers argued yesterday that he should serve no prison time, the Washington Post writes. He is scheduled to be sentenced on Tuesday.

In his weekly National Journal column, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook looks at the 2008 congressional map. "For congressional Republican to have a realistic chance of breaking even or even gaining a bit of ground next year, the situation in Iraq will have to fundamentally change."

This afternoon, President Bush participates in a briefing on comprehensive immigration reform -- another attempt, it seems, to sell the Senate bill to the public. Per NBC's Kelly O'Donnell, White House advisers say Secretaries Chertoff and Gutierrez will lead the briefing, which will include representatives from business, agricultural, Hispanic, religious, conservative, and immigrant-rights groups.

Is immigration causing fundraising problems for the RNC? The Washington Times: "The Republican National Committee, hit by a grass-roots donors' rebellion over President Bush's immigration policy, has fired all 65 of its telephone solicitors, The Washington Times has learned… Several of the solicitors fired at the May 24 meeting reported declining contributions and a donor backlash against the immigration proposals now being pushed by Mr. Bush and Senate Republicans… A spokeswoman for the committee denied any drop-off in fundraising."

This very well might be the basis of a question at Tuesday's GOP debate in New Hampshire. Writes Peggy Noonan, What political conservatives and on-the-ground Republicans must understand at this point is that they are not breaking with the White House on immigration… What conservatives and Republicans must recognize is that the White House has broken with them. What President Bush is doing, and has been doing for some time, is sundering a great political coalition. This is sad, and it holds implications not only for one political party but for the American future."

The Los Angeles Times looks at the split within organized labor over the immigration bill. "On one side of the debate are the AFL-CIO and other large industrial unions whose members have historically seen illegal immigrants as unwanted competitors. The other side includes the Service Employees International Union, whose members have healthcare, property management and public service jobs, and Unite Here, which represents garment, hotel and restaurant workers. These unions have embraced immigrants, even those here illegally."

More: "Some Democratic strategists say the labor divide could be enough to halt the bill, given the amount of added opposition from immigrant groups and businesses. Others predict that the SEIU and Unite Here will succeed in moving the bill forward with their lobbying and organizing of immigrant workers."

CLARK: Remember Wes Clark? The Politico notes how he "has seemed to vanish without a trace" in the presidential race. "'I haven't said I won't run,' Clark told Politico.com. 'I think about running every single day.' But in the meantime, he's been acting more like a Democratic Party wise man than a candidate in his own right, to the degree that he's offered private advice in recent weeks to potential rivals. He's spoken in recent weeks to leading presidential candidates, said Clark spokesman Erick Mullen."

CLINTON: The New York senator was in Silicon Valley yesterday. The San Francisco Chronicle says she "reprised some of the favorite technology-friendly themes of her husband, former President Bill Clinton, argued Thursday that the nation must 'hit the restart button on the 21st century' and get back to an agenda that will assure America's place as an 'innovation superpower.'" The article also notes she "unveiled a nine-point innovation agenda, which she said recognized the challenges of globalization, technology, energy efficiency and the 'growing concern that America is losing its competitive edge' under the policies of the Bush administration."

Page Six notes that new Clinton biographer Jeff Gerth is married to "a top foreign policy aide" to Chris Dodd.

If you missed Matt Lauer's interview on TODAY with Carl Bernstein about his new book on Hillary Clinton, you can catch an excerpt of the book here. 

EDWARDS: Bloomberg's Johnston finds that despite the (sometimes superficial) bad press Edwards has received these last few weeks, his standing in Iowa is still strong. "His standing is a testament to his organization in the state, his skills on the stump and two dozen visits since the 2004 election, Iowa political observers say."

Arrrrggghh. He may not look like a pirate, but that's exactly what Spain is calling John Edwards, the New York Daily News writes. Edwards is an investor with a group called Odyssey Marine Exploration, which found a sunken treasure trove worth $500 million. It's already back in the U.S., but Spain says it rightly belongs to them.

Only a Democrat with lots of trial lawyer friends can raise real money in a VERY RED state like Utah. Edwards expects to raise $100,000 tonight in Salt Lake City.

OBAMA: Time's Tumulty goes through a list of things Obama has talked about that, on the one hand, will win him praise with newspaper editorial boards but, on the other hand, could cost him when Mandy Grunwald starts making contrast TV ads. "Obama knows he is not the first to compete in a Democratic primary as the self-styled truth teller against the party's Establishment and entrenched interests. Gary Hart tried it against Walter Mondale in 1984, and in the pre-Sister Souljah months of 1992, Paul Tsongas famously branded Clinton a 'pander bear.' Bill Bradley and Howard Dean took their turns in 2000 and 2004. Obama says he is well aware of how the approach turned out for his predecessors in the role: 'They lost.' But this time, he says, he thinks the result could be different. 'The country understands we have a series of choices now that, if we put them off any longer, will be much tougher to deal with, and we may not be able to deal with them at all,' he says. 'So I think there's going to be greater responsiveness to people who are actually saying what they think.' It helps that Obama delivers his truth telling with a heavy dollop of optimism."

Speaking of these "Souljah" moments, one of them took place in Detroit, where Obama beat up the auto industry. And Ford chairman Bill Ford Jr. is fighting back. Ford said Thursday he was "very disappointed" in the criticism Obama dished out to Detroit. He also criticized efforts in Congress to radically increase fuel economy. "'I would love to invite him to our Chicago assembly plant in his state and see where we make a vehicle that's more efficient than the one he's currently driving,' Ford said to applause at the Detroit Regional Chamber's Mackinac Policy Conference." 

Would Obama be our first president to put a hoop above the White House garage? Or would the bowling alley be remodeled to fit his basketball needs? In all seriousness, the New York Times front-pages Obama's basketball exploits and notes how he's unafraid to get physical down low. "From John F. Kennedy's sailing to Bill Clinton's golf mulligans to John Kerry's windsurfing, sports has been used, correctly or incorrectly, as a personality decoder for presidents and presidential aspirants. So, armchair psychologists and fans of athletic metaphors, take note: Barack Obama is a wily player of pickup basketball, the version of the game with unspoken rules, no referee and lots of elbows."

We guess the implication is that if Obama's unafraid to throw an elbow to get a rebound, he won't be afraid to do that on the campaign trail?

The Jewish Journal profiles one of Obama's financial rainmakers, Alan Solomont.

MCCAIN: McCain raised money and did a brief interview in Mississippi yesterday. Asked about Thompson, McCain said, per the AP: "'We're old friends. I'm sure Fred will add a lot to the campaign.'" McCain also met with Mississippi's best-known trial lawyer, Dickie Scruggs (Trent Lott's brother-in-law). Scruggs, who usually backs Democrats, is supporting McCain. Scruggs: "'I wish Hillary Clinton would come to Mississippi - she's a Southerner - and I wish others would, too. John McCain shows a lot of respect for the state,' Scruggs said. 'I support John McCain. I have for a long, long time.'"

ROMNEY: The Boston Globe says Romney has made McCain's work on immigration "one of his favorite targets. When McCain and other senators unveiled the latest reform bill two weeks ago, Romney called it the 'wrong approach' and immediately launched a television ad slamming 'amnesty' for illegal immigrants. But while Romney has been aggressive with his barbs, he has offered no specific solutions of his own to the immigration crisis. With McCain and his surrogates pushing the issue hard, Romney is facing increasing questions about what he would do about the problem."

By the way, has anyone else noticed that the entire GOP field -- sans McCain -- has unveiled fewer detailed policy proposals than the Dem field? Part of that has to do with the two distinct primary constituencies each is courting. Republican base voters are usually more interested in broad themes and goals, while Dem voters are sticklers for their candidates to have white paper after white paper. But with Thompson's entry into the GOP race, will we see more articles like this one above where there are demands for more detailed plans?

One day after Giuliani used Hillary Clinton as a rhetorical punching bag on taxes, Romney did a similar thing while stumping in Iowa yesterday. Romney: "'Her view is the old, classic, European caricature that we describe of big government, big taxation, welfare state,' said the former Massachusetts governor. 'She gave a speech a couple of days ago and laid out her vision for America. And as I listened to her I figured her platform wouldn't even get her elected in France,' Romney, who was a missionary in France, said to chuckles and applause."

F. THOMPSON: The New York Times' David Brooks appears to long for a bionic candidate that includes "Thompson's back-to-basics theme. This is a traumatized party, not in the mood for anything risky and new. But over the long run, back to basics is no solution because it doesn't produce a positive agenda for today's problems." Brooks wants his candidate to have Gingrich's brain.

Is this another reason why Thompson is opening a "testing the waters" committee and not a full-fledged one? Apparently, he's the new radio pitchman for a company that helps folks deal with identity theft.  The company is called LifeLock. "Beginning this week, Thompson's voice will grace 60-second ads for the company on radio networks nationwide. (The ads, which run through June, can be heard locally on WBZ radio.) The first half of the ads salutes various military heroes; the second half is a pitch for the company."

Slate's Dickerson writes about the "laziness rap" on Thompson. "Fair or not, the laziness rap against Thompson is like the rap that former presidential hopeful Sen. George Allen isn't a genius. Or that John McCain is a hothead. It's an unresolved issue waiting for its moment to become a crisis for the campaign. Thompson's spokesman, Mark Corallo, brushes off critics with a line Ronald Reagan used when belittling what he considered his opponent's hysterical distortions: 'There they go again.' The laziness charge can be deadly because however much voters like the notion of no-sweat solutions, they also want to be sure that their president is up at night worrying about terrorist attacks so they don't have to. They also like to know they're getting their money's worth from their public officials. After the early-to-bed Bush administration, this may be truer than ever."

The New York Post writes about Thompson's "babe wife." She's 24 years his junior and worked for the RNC. "If Thompson wins the White House, [his wife] would also join Jacqueline Kennedy as one of the youngest first ladies in U.S. history."

…Sort of. Due to his felony conviction, he can't hold office for five years. So he can't run for Providence mayor until 2014.