From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Mark Murray
House Republicans have a message to supporters of comprehensive immigration reform: Beware all ye who enter here. They plan to pass an internal House GOP resolution demonstrating their opposition to the Senate bill before it even gets to the House. So they put it to a vote this morning at their weekly meeting -- but only got to a "test" procedural vote before they ran out of time. They'll get to it tomorrow or the next day. UPDATE: They'll actually meet at 5:30 pm ET today to do this.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said that she wants the president to guarantee 70 Republican votes in the House for comprehensive reform before she puts the measure on the floor. Also, House Democrats are wrapping up a series of listening sessions with their rank and file. Some themes emerging: Dems are looking for those 70 Republicans to provide some cover; many don't like the guest-worker program and the points system in the Senate bill; and many Democrats, like Republicans, are concerned about beefing up border security first.

Meanwhile, President Bush today made another -- perhaps final? -- pitch for the Senate to pass the Senate bill, as the chamber restarts debate on the legislation. "The first thing that we've got to recognize in the country is that the system isn't working," Bush said at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building adjacent to the White House. "The immigration system needs reform. The status quo is unacceptable... [And] if the status quo is unacceptable, we need to replace it with something that is acceptable, and have been working toward that end with both Democrats and Republicans in the Senate."

On the bill's most contentious provision, he said: "You know, I've heard all the rhetoric -- you've heard it, too -- about how this is amnesty. Amnesty means that you've got to pay a price for having been here illegally, and this bill does that. But it also recognizes it's in our nation's interest to bring people out of the shadows; that there's got to be a way forward that recognizes there is a penalty for being here illegally -- on the other hand, that recognizes that each person has got worth and dignity."

*** Update *** NBC's Kelly O'Donnell points out that Bush misspoke when giving this line, making it sound as if he backed amnesty. The faux pas caused the press secretary to put out a statement correcting the president.

From NBC's Carly Zakin

Presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee hosted a conference call with bloggers this morning to emphasize his conservatism and his commitment to persevere in the race despite a lack of attention from the national media. But he had two of his closest supporters to do most of the talking for him. Evangelical leader Dr. James Robinson and Dr. Michael P. Farris, chairman and general counsel of the Home Legal Defense Association. praised Huckabee for his conviction, character, ability to communicate as a leader, and experience as governor. Both men drew comparisons to President Reagan. And in what seemed to be a heavy-handed jab directed at Giuliani (and now possibly Bloomberg), Farris added, "We need a governor. Governors win; senators don't. Certainly mayors of New York don't win a presidency."

Both Huckabee and his supporters addressed the effects of blogging and the national media attention. Huckabee praised bloggers "who have really become one of the most important informational sources in the process of electing the president. The impact of blogging and how that has such an incredible effect in getting information out to people is probably going to be the story of the '08 race." Robinson addressed the need for a leader to be comfortable with a national media that "tends to distort with what's being said and misrepresent."

Some highlights in the Q&A:
-- Huckabee said he does not the support the immigration bill the way it is
-- He acknowledged the money his campaign will raise for the 2nd quarter will not be of the same level that "some of these other guys" have been raising. But while the national press will inevitably support them, Huckabee is confident that "the trajectory will continue to go upward"
-- He called Giuliani and McCain's decision to pull out of the Iowa straw poll a sign of "their unwillingness to play the game."
-- He said supports the Fair Tax
-- He wants to achieve energy independence by the end of his second term

From NBC's Mark Murray
In the first GOP presidential debate back in May, MSNBC's Chris Matthews -- citing poll numbers showing that few Americans think that the country is on the right track -- asked Giuliani: How do we get back to Ronald Reagan's morning in America? Giuliani replied, "We get back to it with optimism."

That kind of question didn't reappear at the next two GOP debates, but the Politico reports that Romney yesterday noted its premise: that the country is headed in the wrong direction. "'We're going to change the course of America,' Romney told about 800 donors gathered for a pep rally at the Boston Red Sox's Fenway Park. 'It's on a course right now that's just not quite right. We've got a lot of problems around the world that need our leadership as a nation.'"

The Politico adds that Romney's words were "some of his most unambiguous language to date to distance himself from President Bush." And we wouldn't be surprised if more Republican presidential candidates use this kind of language 1) to separate themselves from Bush and 2) to hammer home the message that they represent change -- as hard as that might be for a Republican in this environment.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
In case you were wondering just how it's done, the Columbia State newspaper has an up-and-running feature on how to win the South Carolina Republican and Democratic primaries. It outlines who the influence peddlers are, must-stops for candidates and where to find the necessary voting blocs.

How to win the Democratic Primary
 
How to win the Republican primary

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro

Edwards is up with his first ad in New Hampshire today, a 30-second spot highlighting his focus on poverty. In it, he repeats part of his stump speech, telling viewers, "It's time for the President of the United States to ask Americans to be patriotic about something other than war," the Manchester Union-Leader reports. Edwards' wife, Elizabeth, appears briefly, and the ad shows close-ups of Edwards, addressing supporters. Americans "know what needs to be done to lift families out of poverty, to strengthen the middle class," Edwards says. "Will we make America the country of the 21st century? That depends on all of us."

Dodd, Richardson and Romney are already up on the air in the Granite State. Edwards' first campaign TV ad was in Iowa in May. In it, he urges Congress to end the war in Iraq.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell

Senior advisers say the presumed presidential candidate Fred Thompson will be greeted by supporters when he lands in Nashville today (he'll arrive on a private plane and go right to small hangar)Thompson will work a rope line. Advisers say he will also tour potential office space for his national headquarters in the Old Center City called Fall School, the oldest existing school that has been converted to office space. 

Advisers say no deals have been signed either in Tennessee or Northern Virginia on office space.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** Return To Regent: Giuliani addresses Pat Robertson's Regent University today, after the tragic Virginia Tech shootings nixed his previously scheduled appearance back in mid-April. This speech -- which isn't exactly on friendly turf for a pro-choice, pro-stem cell candidate -- comes at a rough time for the campaign (declining poll numbers, a top Iowa adviser who's headed to OMB, a South Carolina state chair who was indicted on cocaine charges, and more dents to his 9/11 reputation). Yet given the venue, it appears Giuliani will stick with his meat and potatoes: A campaign spokesperson expects him to talk about his "12 commitments," including the one he unveiled last week in Iowa on fiscal discipline. But he won't make new news on social issues, the spokesperson says.

*** Has Bush lost Dick Lugar? Last night, the venerable GOP senator called for a change of course in Iraq, even before General Petraeus' September report (although Lugar isn't calling for complete troop withdrawal). "In my judgment, the costs and risks of continuing down the current path outweigh the potential benefits that might be achieved," he said. What's significant about Lugar's speech last night is that it provides covers for other Republicans -- and just not those in blue states -- who want to turn the page on Iraq.

*** Wanna Fire Up Lefty Bloggers? Point out this article from Fortune about Hillary Clinton's courtship of big business, including a Bush Ranger or two. And then remind those same lefty bloggers that in Barack Obama's first TV ads, he features a GOP state legislator (who has endorsed John McCain, by the way) talking about his ability to build consensus. Seriously, there are a lot of influential folks on the left who hate when Democrats look like they are reaching out to Republicans. It will be interesting if Edwards tries to capitalize on this. Then again, both Clinton and Obama need to prove electability, so the more their GOP courtships are reported, the better for each of them -- particularly Obama, who is counting on independents (and even some Republicans) to crossover (in both Iowa and New Hampshire in particular) and vote for him in the Dem primary or caucuses. 

*** Supreme Decision: Is it us, or was yesterday's 5-4 Supreme Court ruling -- which said it's unconstitutional to ban union- and corporate-backed ads that mention a candidate's name 60 days before an election -- a really BIG deal that changes the face of the 2008 campaign more so than any of us can fathom right now? Imagine if ACT (the Democratic group that tried to defeat Bush in '04) or Progress for America (The GOP group formed to help re-elect Bush) could have directly targeted Kerry or Bush respectively right before the election? Now they can. Perhaps the bigger beneficiary of this decision is actually the new Democratic congressional majority. Because now, the Democrats can watch their labor friends dump a ton of money on the airwaves rather than just on the ground.

*** Special Election Time: Today is the special election in California to replace the late Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald (D), who died of cancer earlier this year. African-American Democratic lawmakers have long held this LA district. But with several black candidates in the running -- including state Rep. Laura Richardson and Valerie McDonald (daughter of the late congresswoman) -- could that leave an opening for Hispanic state Sen. Jenny Oropeza? The Congressional Hispanic Caucus has infused Oropeza's campaign with cash, and she is the candidate of choice of the state and local Democratic parties. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held Aug. 21. Polls open at 10:00 am ET and close at 11:00 pm ET.

*** Warren, Not Jimmy: Hillary Clinton tonight in New York has an open-press conversation with famed investor Warren Buffett. Per a Clinton spokesman, Buffett hasn't endorsed her. But: "We're delighted that he's hosting this event for her."

*** On The Trail: Elsewhere, Biden's son Beau campaigns for his father in Iowa; Edwards raises money in California; Huckabee holds a conference call this morning with bloggers; McCain has four fundraisers in Virginia; Obama is in Chicago, and then heads to DC; Paul appears on G4 TV's news program "Attack of the Show"; Romney raises money in Florida and Boston; Fred Thompson is in Nashville; and Tommy Thompson is in Iowa.
 
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BIDEN: The Delaware senator named an Iraq veteran -- who is a native of Mississippi and lives in Des Moines -- as the head of his veterans committee.

CLINTON:

South Carolina conservative Rep. Bob Inglis said yesterday he was hoping that Clinton would be the Dem nominee. "I'm sort of hopeful Hillary is the nominee because I think that's winnable," Inglis told a small crowd Monday. "It's more of a challenge if Obama is the nominee because he has less of a record to defend." Inglis has yet to endorse in the GOP primary.

Bill Clinton was in Phoenix last night raising money for the Arizona Democratic Party. 

Fortune's Nina Easton has a great look at how big business is being courted in the presidential race. The star of this piece is Clinton, who is having lots of success wooing some key business leaders who backed Bush.

Another Clinton cabinet official is officially on board of Hillary's campaign. Ex-South Carolina Gov./Clinton Education Secretary Dick Riley will endorse today.

DODD:

The Connecticut senator was in Cedar Rapids yesterday, where he talked about national service. The Boston Globe's Scott Lehigh gave Dodd a much-needed positive review. "Watching Dodd reinforces something I've written before: Despite the fascination with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, the lesser known Democrats are more experienced, less packaged, and every bit as interesting. They deserve a closer look -- and New Hampshire is just the place to give them one."

EDWARDS: During the Edwardses' appearance on the "Tonight Show" last night, the topic of gay marriage came up. "It's not the only thing we disagree about. She actually says what she thinks," Edwards said. The candidate said he only learned this weekend of his wife's views on gay marriage.

GORE:

While all the advertising buzz involves Obama's first TV ads set to air in Iowa, there are new radio ads running in the state promoting another candidate: Al Gore. The 30-second ad, dubbed "You Who," will go national in July. It features a chorus of voices seeking Gore's attention and urging him to run. The ad is being paid for by something called the "Draft Gore Committee."  The radio ad, being run on WHO-AM in Des Moines, included such pleas as "Mr. Gore we need you for president" and "We deserve a president we can respect." "Al Gore: Right on Iraq, right on global warming, right for the 21st Century," the ad says.

OBAMA:

The timing for Obama's new TV ads is a tad odd, since some might argue starting an ad campaign a week before a major holiday isn't ideal. Then again, if this is about generating a week of momentum (new TV ads, big fundraising report), then maybe the timing is spot on. Also, note the campaign's use of Obama's convention speech. Clearly, many assumed he'd use that speech at some point. And it is the perfect introduction for him since it is how he got on the national landscape. But this also will probably be one of the final times we see the speech in his advertising. You only get one bite at that apple, right?

The Republican who appears in Obama's new ad (and who has endorsed McCain) tells the Chicago Tribune: "'Certainly I care what Republicans think, but Sen. Obama is a personal friend, someone I worked closely with on issues we're both proud of. He's my United States senator and I think his candidacy, whether he wins or loses, is good for Illinois and it's good for the United States.'"

The New York Times: "Mr. Obama is not expected to open a full-fledged advertising push until the fall, aides said, but the campaign will slowly start highlighting his life before he gained national prominence delivering the keynote speech at the Democratic convention in 2004."

Obama did something he rarely does -- he uttered the word "Clinton," the Chicago Sun-Times says. "'The only person who would probably be prepared to be our president on Day 1 would be Bill Clinton -- not Hillary Clinton,' Obama said when asked about unnamed Clinton backers questioning Obama's experience. 'I think that we're all very qualified for the job," the freshman senator said. 'The question is who can inspire the nation to get us past the politics that have bogged us down in the past. That was true, by the way, in the '90s as well as more recently.' It was an "obvious dig" at the political divisions of the Clinton years. Obama and Clinton held dueling fundraisers just blocks away from each other last night in Chicago with Clinton sporting the bigger affair.

Obama also addressed the fundraising race: "'I'm sure the Clintons can raise much more money than us,' Obama told reporters. 'She was president -- or he was president -- for eight years. She was the first lady. They've got a lot of chits out there. We're just trying to make sure that we can raise the paltry sums that allow us to compete.'"

The Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet has two interesting scoops today. "The Obama/Clinton contest is dividing the Jackson family. For now, Jonathan Jackson, son of the Rev. Jesse Jackson, said he is not decided. 'I support the debate process,' he said. His father and brother Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.) back Obama. His brother Yusef was a co-host of the Clinton fund-raiser."

Also, she -- as well as the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder -- notes a change in the press shop: "Obama communications director Robert Gibbs is now on the plane with Obama. The traveling press secretary, Dan Pfeiffer, is now doing long-range planning at the Chicago headquarters. Gibbs is still running the communications operation."

RICHARDSON:

The campaign released its own recent Iowa caucus poll, conducted by Paul Maslin, June 18-20. Clearly, this is something that is being used for last-minute fundraising opportunities. In the poll, Maslin has Edwards leading by double digits with 34%, Clinton second at 24%, Obama next at 17%, and Richardson in fourth at 13%. And among their so-called "likeliest" caucus goers, the poll has Richardson in third (at 18%) and Obama in fourth (at 16%).

By the way, on the money front, the Richardson camp would like to dispute the notion that they will outraise Edwards this quarter. They will only say they are confident they'll beat the $6 million they raised in the first quarter. Fair enough.

GIULIANI:

The Washington Post writes about the recent hiccups facing the Giuliani campaign: "Every campaign faces bad news at one time or another, but with a fundraising deadline looming Saturday, the timing couldn't be worse. Most voters are not tuned in, but for those who are giving and raising money for the former New York mayor, the heartburn-inducing headlines may make them think twice. The string of events -- some Giuliani's making, some out of his hands -- comes as national polls continue to show him ahead of his rivals, but surveys in early voting states have him trailing or losing ground."

A week after Giuliani's South Carolina chairman was indicted on cocaine trafficking charges, Giuliani replaced him -- with the indicted man's father.  

The New York Daily News highlights a poll showing Bloomberg hurting Giuliani (slightly) in a three-way Clinton-Giuliani-Bloomberg general election.

MCCAIN:

In an interview with the AP, McCain dismissed some of the recent polls in South Carolina that have showed him in single digits. He said that poll is just not true. With "veterans alone, we are doing much better than that," he said. The AP story also indicates that more staff changes in the campaign "could be in the offing."

ROMNEY:

At his second "national call day" in Boston, Romney conceded that he once again contributed his own money to his campaign. He would not say how much he gave this quarter. Last quarter, he gave about $2.5 million. (By not saying how much he gave this quarter, he may lead some to believe that the final amount has not been determined. Is he waiting to see how short the campaign is of a specific goal before he writes the check? That would be the businessman in him talking, right?)

Today's installment of the Boston Globe profile series focuses on Romney's businessman days, beginning at Bain. And another Globe piece focuses on his days at HBS -- as it's known in the biz community -- or Harvard Business School to the uninitiated.

It looks like a new favorite media bumper sticker may be "Honk If Romney's Rent-a-cop Has Pulled You Over." Another reporter comes out and says she, too, was pulled over by the now suspended Jay Garrity.

F. THOMPSON:

Al D'Amato is keeping the New York Post informed on all his doings on behalf of Thompson. "D'Amato, who will head up Thompson's New York campaign and serve as an adviser to his national effort, said he expects the former U.S. senator from Tennessee to officially declare his candidacy "in the next two weeks." The AP looks at Thompson's lobbying past.

Politico's Allen reports on a DNC fundraising email that focuses on Thompson and wonders if it's a tacit acknowledgment that the Dems are nervous about facing a nominee like Thompson.  Meanwhile, while D'Amato has Thompson announcing in the next TWO weeks, Allen's reporting has the announcement in the latter part of July. Allen also reports that Nashville will be the headquarters for the campaign, but some press and policy officials will remain in Northern Virginia.

The

New York Times on the Supreme Court's 5-4 ruling yesterday on campaign finance: "While the decision did not deal directly with the soft-money ban, which is in a separate section of the law, election experts said the effect would be to undercut the soft-money section as well by permitting a largely unlimited flow of money from corporate treasuries to pay for the all-important broadcast advertisements in the weeks before primary and general elections. Groups seeking to influence the outcome of the election could easily sidestep the prohibition on explicit appeals for or against candidates, supporters of the law said."

By the way, the New York Sun's Sager notes that Giuliani's statement in support of the Court's decision is a change. Giuliani had been "supportive of McCain Feingold" in the past. Adds Sager: "Giuliani may never have specifically addressed the ad ban, but I've never heard a skeptical word from him on the issue until now."

Following up on his tough assessment on "Meet the Press," the Politico's Roger Simon offers up a does of what he believes is reality regarding Bloomberg and wonders if he's simply a press fascination because of his checkbook.

As of this writing, Bush is participating in a briefing on the comprehensive immigration reform bill he supports. Meanwhile, the Senate today returns to complete work on the bill, staring work most likely this afternoon, NBC's Ken Strickland reports. Supporters face several hurdles before a final vote, which makes final passage hard to predict. The bill's supporters are optimistic, while their opponents feel momentum is on their side. However, there is consensus from both Democratic and Republican leaders to dispose of the bill this week before the Senate adjourns for its July 4th recess.

The first action should occur late this morning with a procedural vote that simply seeks to bring the bill to the floor. This "motion to proceed" will require 60 votes. And assuming the 60 votes are there (a reasonable but not guaranteed assumption), the Senate will then start the heavy lifting with votes on amendments that could ultimately affect the core elements of the legislation: border security and workplace enforcement, a guest-worker program, and a path to citizenship.

There will be votes of about two dozen amendments that address everything from what critics call an amnesty provision to a measure shifting the emphasis of future immigration back to family reunification. Some of the amendments are considered "poison pills," which, if passed, could dissolve the fragile coalition holding the bill together.

The Washington Times examines the tough road ahead for the immigration bill.

NDN and the National Council of La Raza hold a media briefing this morning to discuss the current immigration debate and the Latino community. 

Last night, GOP Sen. Dick Lugar, the ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, called on President Bush to initiate a change of course in Iraq -- with some troop redeployments -- even before General Petraeus issues his September report, NBC's Strickland says. "I think we know enough now," he said after delivering a lengthy speech on the Senate floor. "What we need is a plan for repositioning [some troops] and for diplomacy."  "We don't owe the President our unquestioning agreement, but we do owe him and the American people our constructive engagement," Lugar said. "In my judgment, the costs and risks of continuing down the current path outweigh the potential benefits that might be achieved."

The Indianapolis Star on Lugar's speech: "He still does not support a total troop withdrawal, which he said would increase the risk of a wider regional conflict between Sunnis and Shiites and be a 'severe blow' to U.S. credibility… Lugar's views carry extra weight because he's one of the leading foreign policy experts in Congress. He's also seen as someone who does not take partisan shots."

The AP: "The unusually blunt assessment Monday deals a political blow to Bush, who has relied heavily on GOP support to stave off anti-war legislation. It also comes as a surprise. Most Republicans have said they were willing to wait until September to see if Bush's recently ordered troop buildup in Iraq was working."

Today's installment of the Washington Post's Cheney series focuses on the vice president's role in all things that have NOTHING to do with the war.
 
And as he faces sentencing, ex-Alabama Gov. Don Siegelman (D) is trying one last defense: blaming Karl Rove. "It may be a long shot as a legal argument, but at least one influential Republican and a number of Democrats are questioning whether politics may have played a role in the case."

From NBC's Shawna Thomas

Last night, the group, "Indian-Americans for Hillary" held a fundraiser at the Sheraton New York Hotel in Manhattan. In some ways this was the coming out party for the Indian-American community's ability to fundraise and organize for a high-profile candidate, and it came just days after an Obama opposition research document blasted Clinton's ties to Indian-American donors (Obama later apologized for the document). 

Clinton spoke of her and former President Bill Clinton's visits to India, and praised the Indian-American community's commitment to education. Her speech ended to a standing ovation and the familiar strains of KT Tunstall's "Suddenly I See." But nowhere to be heard was her anointed campaign tune, Celine Dion's "You and I."  

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro

Obama is up in Iowa this week with the first TV ads of his campaign, the AP reports. They are biographical and try to highlight his sense of social justice and bill him as a consensus builder.

The first ad focuses on Obama's decision to turn down lucrative offers from law firms after graduating from Harvard Law. Instead, he moved to Chicago to work as a civil rights attorney. The second focuses on his work in the Illinois state Senate. Both ads feature Harvard Law professor Laurence Tribe and Republican Illinois state Sen. Kirk Dillard.

"Senator Obama worked on some of the deepest issues we had and was successful in a bipartisan way," Dillard says in the second ad.

"It was inspiring, absolutely inspiring to see someone as brilliant as Barack Obama, as successful, someone who could have written his ticket on Wall Street, take all of the talent and all of the learning and decide to devote it to the community and to make people's lives better," Tribe says in the commercial.

Obama has been polling near the top of the field in Iowa along with Clinton and Edwards. The ads are the latest push by the Obama camp to try to separate him from the pack. The ads follow a mass mailing which included a DVD biography of the senator.

From NBC's Mark Murray

Soon after the Supreme Court ruled today that a Wisconsin anti-abortion group should have been allowed to run TV ads in the final two months before the 2004 election -- which weakens the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law -- guess who released a statement praising the ruling? Romney, of course.

"Score one for free speech," Romney said. "Today the Supreme Court reaffirmed the First Amendment by rejecting a key feature of McCain-Feingold. The law trampled the basic right of the American people to participate in their democracy.  It also purported to reduce the influence of money in politics, but we now know that influence is greater than ever. McCain-Feingold was a poorly-crafted bill. Today's decision restores, in part, to the American people a right critical to their freedom of political participation and expression."

This isn't the first time -- and it won't be the last -- Romney has tried to whack GOP rival McCain over his authorship of McCain-Feingold. "My fear is that McCain-Kennedy would do to immigration what McCain-Feingold has done to campaign finance and money in politics, and that's bad," Romney said at the second GOP debate. (McCain replied to the charge: "Well, I take and kept a consistent position on campaign finance reform... I have kept a consistent position on right to life. And I haven't changed my position on even-numbered years or have changed because of the different offices that I may be running for.")

hFrom NBC's Mark Murray

As we mentioned earlier this morning, former EPA chief Christie Whitman -- who testifies on Capitol Hill today -- has charged that Giuliani blocked her efforts to force World Trade Center workers to wear respirators, and that city officials didn't want EPA workers wearing hazmat suits. On Saturday, the Giuliani campaign pushed back against Whitman's claims with a three-page "setting the record straight" research document, calling them "baseless" and "revisionist."

"Every effort was made by Mayor Giuliani and his staff to ensure the safety of all workers at Ground Zero in the aftermath of this unprecedented act of terror," said former deputy mayor Joe Lhota in the press release. "All workers at Ground Zero were instructed repeatedly to wear their respirators. This is well-documented and indisputable. No one from the City ever tried to block the Environmental Protection Agency. Any statement or suggestion to the contrary is simply baseless. Administrator Whitman never voiced any of these concerns at the time – not at the daily meetings which included federal, state and local officials, not at any press conferences. Doing so now is revisionist at best."

From NBC's Mark Murray
A new Survey and Policy Research Institute poll shows Clinton and Giuliani leading in California. On the Dem side, Clinton is at 37%, while Edwards and Obama are tied at 15% each. Perhaps most strikingly, among women, Clinton is at 45% -- versus 13% for Obama and 8% for Edwards.

On the GOP side, Giuliani is ahead at 25%, followed by Fred Thompson at 16%, McCain at 14%, and Romney at 5%.

The poll also finds that just 25% of Californians approve of President Bush's job.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carly Zakin
*** The Dash For Cash: With five days to go before the end of the 2nd quarter, here's what we think we know reading the tea leaves (and spin): Romney will be the top Republican again (no candidate is disputing this -- even Giuliani, who we thought would be neck-and-neck this quarter). McCain will lag, apparently, but should we wonder why his campaign is at ease talking about its money woes?

*** (Not So) Great Expectations: On the Democratic side, the Clinton campaign continues to boost the idea that it'll be lucky to stay even with Obama. Come again? How did the Clintons pull this spin off? This is their muscle quarter. On paper, it's Clinton who should be slightly favored to outraise Obama -- not vice versa. It would be a BIG deal if Obama outraises Clinton for a second quarter in a row (in primary money). By the way, don't miss the Richardson camp's bragging that it will outraise Edwards. You really raising $10 million-plus, governor?

*** Whitman vs. Giuliani: One-time Giuliani ideological soul mate, Christie Whitman, becomes a potential political problem as she testifies on the Hill about the Giuliani Administration's environmental-hazard response at Ground Zero and at 30 Rock (for the anthrax attacks). These charges are especially significant because one would assume the former moderate governor of New Jersey -- who won the same year as Giuliani won in New York -- would be supporting Giuliani's White House bid. Given what's here, that's, um, unlikely.

*** The Globe's Back: We had been wondering where the usually tough-on-its-own Boston Globe had been with its coverage on Romney. Now we know -- in the last couple of days, it has run some significant "who is Mitt Romney?" stories -- including details of the near-fatal car crash he was in as a missionary in France, his Mexico Mormon relatives, and his Vietnam draft deferrals.
 
*** Rezko's Return: Both Clinton and Obama are raising money today on Obama's turf of Chicago. Yet the Chicago Sun-Times says that one of the hosts of Clinton's fundraiser is a lawyer referenced in Rezko's public-corruption indictment (although the paper makes it clear that Clinton has no direct link to Rezko). Also, check out that Obama has given back more Rezko-related money, including cash from this particular lawyer. 

*** On The Trail: Dodd is in Iowa, where he participates in an Iowa professional firefighters state convention golf tournament and then holds a meet-and-greet; Edwards and his wife appear on The Tonight Show; McCain hits a fundraiser in Columbia, SC and then holds a press conference in Greenville; Romney and his supporters work the phones for an "America's Calling" fundraising event, and Romney speaks to the press afterwards; and Tommy Thompson is in New Hampshire.
 
Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 1 day
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GIULIANI: In an interview with WNBC-TV, ex-EPA dir. Christie Whitman says Giuliani "blocked her efforts to force World Trade Center workers to wear respirators." She also said city officials didn't want EPA workers wearing haz-mat suits because they "didn't want this image of a city falling apart." Whitman will be testifying on the Hill today about the ground zero air quality issue. Whitman also criticized Giuliani's handling of a suspected anthrax attack at NBC's Rockefeller Center headquarters weeks after 9/11. "There was concern by the city that EPA workers not be seen in the haz-mat suits," she said. "They didn't want this image of a city falling apart. I said, 'Well, that's not acceptable.'" Giuliani's former Deputy Mayor Joe Lhota rejected Whitman's claims. "As the incident commander, F.D.N.Y.'s response was exemplary. They coordinated, conducted and affected a multi-agency response in a timely, safe and efficient fashion," Lhota said.

As some predicted, the New York City tabs are not going to be able to get enough of Bloomberg v. Giuliani. The New York Post decided to survey senior city workers who worked with both mayors to get their take on which "Hizzoner" is ready to be POTUS. "Bloomberg's laid-back leadership style received glowing reviews, but most said they'd vote for him only if there were no other choice but Giuliani."

Per Newsday, Giuliani will stand by his longtime friend Alan Placa, a Catholic priest accused of molesting students, "despite a new call by an advocacy group for priest-abuse victims to fire the suspended priest from his consulting firm, a Giuliani aide said Friday. The GOP presidential front-runner was urged to ax Placa by David Clohessy, national director of the Survivors Network of Those Abused by Priests, after Salon Web-magazine ran a story Friday about the 5-year-old allegations of molesting students against Placa and his job at Giuliani Partners. But Giuliani will not fire Placa, who is also an attorney, from his consulting job, said Giuliani Partners spokeswoman Sunny Mindel. "The mayor believes Alan Placa has been unjustly accused," she said.

Speaking of the Catholic Church, the New York Times looks at the troubles Giuliani might face from politically active Catholic bishops who aren't fond of Catholic politicians who say they are personally opposed to abortion but don't favor making the procedure illegal. Also buried in the piece is the fact that Giuliani doesn't take communion, possibly because he didn't get his second marriage annulled.

MCCAIN: Veteran political reporter Tom Edsall reports on Huffington Post that McCain has more registered lobbyists on staff than any other presidential campaign. The two lobbyists Edsall singles out are chief finance staffer Tom Loeffler and ex-Sen.-turned-lobbyist Slade Gorton. All told, "there are 11 current or former lobbyists working" for McCain. Romney is second in total number of lobbyists on staff, followed by Giuliani. On the Democratic side, of the top three candidates, Obama is the only one who can claim he has no lobbyists on staff. Edwards has a couple of current or former lobbyists on staff, while Clinton has the most of the Democrats (falling short of McCain's 11 though).

ROMNEY:

Today is Part Two of the Boston Globe's series on Romney, "The Making of Mitt Romney: The Missionary." Today's piece chronicles Romney's time as a Mormon missionary in France. And here's Part One from Sunday, which detailed his relationship with his father.The Globe also looked at the Vietnam deferrals the Mormon church obtained for Romney and other missionaries. "Before and after his missionary deferment, Romney also received nearly three years of deferments for his academic studies. When his deferments ended and he became eligible for military service in 1970, he drew a high number in the annual lottery that determined which young men were drafted. His high number ensured he was not drafted into the military. The deferments for Mormon missionaries became increasingly controversial in the late 1960s, especially in Utah, leading the Mormon Church and the government to limit the number of church missionaries who could put off their military service. That agreement called for each church ward, or church district, to designate one male every six months to be exempted from potential duty for the duration of his missionary work."

The Washington Post's Dan Balz examines the fact that Romney is in a stronger position in the early states than he is nationally. "Romney's rise is an instructive story of seizing opportunities, maximizing small advantages, attention to detail and a few lucky breaks. The challenge his advisers faced at the beginning of the year was to prove that he belonged in the same conversation with McCain and Giuliani. Now he has done that, long before demonstrating any significant national support."

The Boston Herald interviews folks who worked with Romney's now-suspended rent-a-cop Jay Garrity during his days on Beacon Hill. "'He thinks he's a cop,' sniffed one longtime insider. 'That was always the persona.' A Democrat said: 'He wasn't well-liked by those across the aisle. He was a little pompous. You could see that the pretense of power was going to his head.' A Republican lawmaker added: 'He looks and acts like Secret Service.'" By the way, Garrity apparently had a suspended license up until this weekend.  and

Romney is now speaking out on the attacks on his religion. During a weekend fundraising trip to Utah, Romney said criticism of his Mormon religion by rival campaigns is happening too frequently. "'Clearly, any derogatory comments about anyone's faith -- those comments are troubling. The fact they keep on coming up is even more troubling' Romney said on Saturday."

F. THOMPSON: Despite some news to the contrary, Thompson will not be announcing his candidacy on Tuesday. If he makes any news tomorrow, it will be about where his campaign will be headquartered.

CLINTON:

The AP says that Clinton, who was best known in the 1990s for her failed effort to revamp the nation's health-care system, has now become cautious on the issue of health care. "While rivals Barack Obama and John Edwards have both laid out sweeping health care reform plans with estimated costs attached, Clinton has so far proposed only modest changes to the existing system while avoiding the vexing question of how to provide coverage for all." More: "Aides say her plan will be rolled out through a series of speeches focusing on different aspects of health care reform, with the topic of universal coverage to be tackled last."

When Clinton hits a fundraiser tonight in Chicago, one of the hosts is a lawyer referenced in the public-corruption indictment of Tony Rezko, the Chicago Sun-Times writes. "Clinton (D-N.Y.) has no direct connection to Rezko. But one of 20 'chairs' for her Palmer House Hilton event is Myron Cherry, who is among a large circle of people to be enmeshed in two federal indictments Rezko is fighting. Most of those people, including Cherry, have not been charged with any crimes."

The Sun-Times also notes that Clinton hasn't returned any money from Cherry, whose firm has handled several cases for Int'l Profit Associates, whose associates have given nearly $130,000 to Clinton. The company has been fighting an EEOC sexual-harassment lawsuit and is under investigation by the state of Illinois. Democrats like Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) and Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle (D) have returned money from the company.

And speaking of Rezko, Obama has given back another $3,500 in Rezko-connected money, including money from Cherry.

P style="CLEAR: both">DODD: The Connecticut senator said on Saturday in New Hampshire he wants to make community service mandatory and double the size of the Peace Corps by 2001.

EDWARDS:

More evidence that Elizabeth Edwards and NOT Bill Clinton is the most outspoken spouse on the campaign trail. She came out for same-sex marriage during an event in San Francisco over the weekend, the San Francisco Chronicle says. It's a position that puts her at odds with her candidate husband.

OBAMA: At a church convention on Saturday, Obama called some right-wing evangelical leaders hijackers of faith. "'Somehow, somewhere along the way, faith stopped being used to bring us together and faith started being used to drive us apart,'" the AP reports.

It's amazing how a seemingly positive development (Obama's garnering an amazing amount of grassroots support) is now seen as a negative. He can thank Howard Dean for that. The New York Times wrote over the weekend: "Organizers of Mr. Obama's grass-roots campaign are doing what they can to focus the enthusiasm of volunteers on useful work, and to train them so their efforts do no harm to Mr. Obama's bid. Yet the activities of some supporters, operating outside of the official campaign, have raised questions for Mr. Obama to answer."

Apparently the campaign isn't vetting EVERYTHING. One of the small donors the campaign picked for a dinner with Obama in DC seemed like the perfect person to highlight at this gimmick. Jennifer Lasko told the campaign she used to be an Army soldier and an active Republican who had become an anti-war Dem. What Lasko didn't tell the campaign -- she used to be a man. Lasko apparently may not come to the dinner now.

The New Yorker reviews Obama's poetry.

Newsweek does its "Can-Bloomberg-Be-Serious story and notes something that we're guessing eventual Bloomberg foes will highlight. "Bloomberg demands loyalty. Employees who leave are seldom, if ever, welcomed back. At Bloomberg News, security is strict. All employees must wear identity badges at all times; a fingerprint identification is required to log on to computers. Cameras survey the newsroom, in part to make sure no one is leaking sensitive financial data. To encourage communication and fraternity, free snacks are available in an office food court. To some Bloomberg staffers, it all seems a bit Orwellian, though they say that ethics standards are high and that hard work is fairly rewarded."

Clinton and Fred Thompson lead in Nevada, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll. Clinton has a substantial double-digit lead over Obama (39%-17%), while Thompson, who has not even declared yet for the presidential race, leads Mitt Romney (25%-20%, a statistical tie). Rounding out the Democratic field, Edwards is five points behind Obama, and Richardson registers five points behind Edwards. On the GOP side, Giuliani comes in with 17%, McCain with 8%, Huckabee with 3%. Undecideds made up 21% of the vote on the Democratic side and 23% on the Republican side.

With less than a week to go before the June 30 fundraising deadline, speculation is running wild in the press. Politico has Romney potentially raising at least $14 million this quarter, noting that the Romney camp is pointing to the first two quarters of George W. Bush in '99 as the "gold standard." Bush raised $37 million by the end of June 30 in '99. Romney raised $23 million. Meanwhile, "McCain is expected to finish last again among the top three declared candidates, resurrecting fresh doubts about what has happened to the former front-runner."

Don't forget: Fred Thompson does NOT have to report a number this quarter since he's only formed a "testing the waters" committee. But expect their campaign to leak a number if it is above $5 million.

Clinton raised approximately $2 million at an Indian-American fundraiser yesterday. This story claims that Obama's leaked oppo memo on Clinton's relationship with key Indian-Americans only helped to increase the support Clinton received.

Meanwhile the Washington Post reported on Saturday that the Richardson folks are bragging they'll outraise Edwards this quarter. That would be something, if it's true.

The New York Daily News: "A revived immigration reform bill that could legalize some 12 million undocumented immigrants faces a crucial vote as soon as tomorrow - and its prospects are far from certain. 'It's going to be an interesting week,' said White House spokesman Scott Stanzel. President Bush appealed to senators in his Saturday radio address to 'summon the courage' to move the bill forward. The White House worked with senators on both sides of the aisle to resurrect the measure after it stalled early this month." On Tuesday, Bush will participate in a briefing on the immigration bill.

Bloomberg's Al Hunt writes on the never-ending battle over immigration reform and concludes: "Whatever the short-term effects, however, rejecting the immigration overhaul would be a long-term disaster for Republicans. It would deny Bush any domestic legacy, making him the most-failed second-term president in modern American politics. History tells us that would drag down his party in subsequent elections."

This is a potential blockbuster lead by the Los Angeles Times: "The Bush administration has begun exploring ways of offering Congress a compromise deal on Iraq policy to avert bruising battles in coming months, U.S. officials said. With public support of the war dropping, President Bush has authorized an internal policy review to find a plan that could satisfy opponents without sacrificing his top goals, the officials said. The president and senior officials 'realize they can't keep fighting this over and over,' said one administration official, who along with others declined to be identified because they weren't authorized to speak publicly or because decisions were pending.  The Republican White House has not opened formal negotiations with the Democratic-controlled Congress. But some senior administration officials — including Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and U.N. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad — have been quietly talking with lawmakers about how to adjust policy in the months ahead. Among other ideas, they have discussed whether the United States should advocate a sharply decentralized Iraq, a notion that has seen a resurgence on Capitol Hill."

The Washington Post runs Part Two of its four-part look at Dick Cheney's vice presidency. Today's piece examines Cheney's role in crafting the Administration interrogation policies. "The vice president's office played a central role in shattering limits on coercion in U.S. custody, commissioning and defending legal opinions that the Bush administration has since portrayed as the initiatives, months later, of lower-ranking officials."

Here's Part One.