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  • The Afternoon Inbox/C.W. Brain Dump

    From NBC's Chuck Todd
    Ok, so I've only been able to share my inbox and scattering political thoughts on a weekly basis instead of daily. I swear, I'll do this more often. In the meantime, here are some remainders from the weekend both from the internet and my head:
    -- The Future Of The GOP: The New Yorker's Goldberg, in his "letter from Washington" examines the problems facing the GOP electorally in '08 and beyond. Three distinct voices stick out in the piece. First, there's Karl Rove, who is still unfailingly optimistic about the fact that there is a still a center-right majority in the country. Two growth areas he points to demographically include what he believes is an amazing growth in home-computer-based businesses (he claims 700,000 people make their primary livings off of EBAY) and then the yearn for spirtuality. "So the power of the computer has made it possible for people to gain greater control over their lives. ... If you look at the traditional mainstream denominations, they're flat, but what's growing inside those denominations, and what's growing outside those denominations, is churches that are filling this spirtual need, that are replacing sterility with something bibrant, something that speaks to the heart of the individual."
    -- Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich is the second loudest voice in the piece and takes a direct shot at Rove by calling the '04 campaign "manically dumb": "All he proved was that the anti-Kerry vote was bigger than the anti-Bush vote. The Bush people deliberately could not bring themselves to wage a campaign of choice" (i.e. on ideology or ideas). He then compared Bush to Jimmy Carter on the compentency issue.
    -- What If God Talked To Tom DeLay? Finally, the third intriguing voice that sticks out in the piece is Tom DeLay, who is very pessimistic about '08: "We don't have a good shot at winning 2008. I'm not saying we don't have a shot, but it's not good." But the real kicker with DeLay is this money quote: "God has spoken to me. I listen to God and what I've heard is that I'm supposed to devote myself to rebuilding the conservative base of the Republican Party."
    -- So long Sara Taylor. The longtime Bush WH political aide has left the White House. She swears she's going to stay out of '08. We'll see. We'll be watching; Her Iowa background is going to be in GREAT demand. If she does stay out of the presidential race, look for her to make an impact as an on-the-record GOP analyst for some media outlet(s).
    -- Senate '08 Recruiting Watch: Democrats may have been dealt two blows today. First in Texas, Dem Rep. Nick Lampson was a rumored candidate to challenge GOP incumbent John Cornyn. Lampson seemed like a natural candidate since the House district he represents is one that leans Republican. Lampson probably only won it due to the Tom DeLay fatigue. That said, a key aide indicated Lampson would indeed seek re-election (to the relief of the DCCC... or maybe not since saving him will cost upwards of $5 million). As for Cornyn, he strikes me as the Jon Kyl of '08 for the DSCC. On paper, he looks potentially vulnerable (mediocre job rating, not that well known etc.) but the Democratic bench in Texas is lean and it will likely take a self-funder for the national party to truly get interested in this race.
    -- As for the other setback, there is speculation that a key endorsement nabbed by active candidate Steve Marchand (he's being backed by one-time Congressional candidate/state Sen. Martha Fuller Clark) means ex-New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen is leaning against seeking a rematch against GOP incumbent John Sununu. Frankly, while I trust my source implicitly in New Hampshire on this, I continue to hear that Shaheen is more open to a bid every day. Remember, because of the presidential campaign distraction, a New Hampshire Senate candidate can actually wait longer to get in, particularly one as well-known as Shaheen.
    -- Battle for the House: No Democratic candidate for the House got more national attention  last year than injured Iraq War vet Tammy Duckworth. And yet, she lost. Well, she's contemplating a rematch with Republican Peter Roskam in the conservative Chicago suburban district, banking that in a presidential year, a Democrat could over-perform in Henry Hyde's old district.
    -- Confidentiality agreements for Hill staffers? Yikes! It's an idea some Hill offices are apparently pondering for fear of everything that happens on Cap. Hill ends up on a Facebook or MySpace page. But, seriously, isn't this a violation of the public's right to know?
    -- Romney's sky-high Iowa expectations. Doesn't a story like this one in today's Boston Globe mean that Romney HAS to win the Ames straw poll? In fact, if Romney starts tossing around huge money for this thing, won't that also guarantee that Giuliani (and even other top tier candidates) decide to pass on the straw poll?

  • Rudy, interrupted

    From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
    On what should be a happy day of fundraising in the four boroughs of New York City (all except Manhattan) for Rudy Giuliani's 63rd birthday, a few protestors ruined his first event, a review of the videotape shows. At City Island's Sea Shore Restaurant in the Bronx, a young woman named Sabrina approached the Mayor with a prepared question, reading it word for word off of a notepad. "You reported to Peter Jennings on 9/11 that the World Trade Center towers were going to collapse. No steel structure in history has ever collapsed due to fire. How come the people in the buildings weren't notified and who else knew about this? How do you sleep at night?"
     
    Giuliani started to reply but was interrupted by Luke Rudkowski, a man recording the entire exchange on a video camera. Matthew Lepaceak, who stood on the other side of Giuliani, joined in. "But you said on ABC video with Peter Jennings in an interview that you were aware the towers were going to collapse in advance. Who told you the towers were going to collapse in advance, sir? And I also would like to know who else you told." During this time, Giuliani had an incredulous look on his face, completely caught off guard. The statement they were referring to is from a phoner Giuliani had with Jennings. "We set up headquarters at 75 Barclay Street which was right there with the police commissioner and the fire commissioner, the head of emergency management, and we were operating out of there when we were told the World Traded Center was going to collapse."
     
    After being interrupted again, Giuliani responded with an explanation. "Our understanding was that over a long period of time, the way other buildings collapse, the towers could collapse. Meaning over a seven-, eight-, nine-, ten-hour period. No one that I knew of had any idea that they would implode. That was a complete surprise." He then walked into the diner for the breakfast fundraiser. Giuliani supporters clapped loudly to drown out the protestors' questions.
     
    The questioners were from "We Are Change," a self-described 9/11 activist group that asserts 9/11 was an inside job. Rudkowski, the leader of the organization, stated, "We are a non-profit grassroots organization that represents family members and rescue workers that go against Rudolph Giuliani." He said he did not lose a family member in the attack. Sabrina stated she represented her family member, Lt. Robert F. Wallace, who was killed in the attack. "I just want a new investigation. There was no reason why he should dump 45% of the victims in a dump. He used to be an investigator, he knows damn well you don't dump, you do not throw away evidence."
     
    Lepaceak, who stated he also lost no family members during 9/11, assured reporters they were not paid by another campaign to protest Giuliani. "We are not affiliated with anything except for life, pursuit of liberty and happiness and trying to get America back on the right track which Giuliani and unfortunately many men like him have taken us down. Unfortunately, we are in a state of crisis here in America. And we need to have a good man in office in 2008. Unfortunately, Rudy Giuliani is not the man to do it."

    ***Update*** The Giuliani campaign sent us this statement from adviser Mike McKeon in response to these protests. "Millions of people around the world saw firsthand the decisive leadership of Mayor Rudy Giuliani and the bravery of so many men and women working to save lives on September 11th - everyone doing everything they possibly could to help. The murderous terrorists and their supporters who made it possible to turn commercial jetliners into missiles and fly them into the World Trade Center, the Pentagon and Shanksville, Pennsylvania are clearly and solely responsible for the worst attacks on the United States."

  • Hillary's Econ 101

    From NBC's Carrie Dann
    Under the newly-minted slogan "Shared Prosperity," Clinton outlined a nine-point economic overhaul plan this morning that was rife with barbs at the Bush Administration and big business. "Over the past six years," she chided, "it's as though we've gone back to the era of the robber barons." Clinton's plan -- delivered this morning in primary state New Hampshire --  targets ballooning CEO pay, Bush's tax cuts, excessive outsourcing, and "corporate welfare" as the culprits behind income inequality. Striking the tone of an Econ 101 professor at times, she described current trends in global business as "trickle-down economics, but without the trickle." 
     
    In her address, Clinton pointed to the individual pages of her policy playbook as solutions to America's economic problems. She proposed that drains on the high-education workforce could be eased by her plan for universal pre-K; sluggishness in social mobility for the middle class could be fought via her support for pro-union legislation; and unemployment could be stemmed by a bump in new jobs created under a Clinton energy plan. Frequently highlighting her policy's "progressiveness," Clinton was unabashed about the breadth of her proposed overhauls. "So many people I talk to want to hit the restart button on the 21st Century and redo it the right way," she said, "And I agree with them."

  • Kucinich says yes to FOX debate

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    Over the Memorial Day weekend, the New York Times wrote about the fact that Clinton, Edwards, and Obama have all decided to skip the FOX/Congressional Black Caucus presidential debate -- because, at least according to Edwards, the network isn't fair and balanced to Democrats. The article added that Biden was in, Richardson is undecided, and Dodd and Kucinich aides didn't return phone calls.

    Late last night, however, Kucinich's campaign released a statement saying he would participate -- which probably isn't surprising for the non-top-tier candidate. "This is particularly troublesome because the concerns of African Americans should take precedent over what network is broadcasting the debate," Kucinich said in the statement. "Those candidates planning to skip this debate clearly are trying to avoid a forum where there will be hard-hitting questions from people who may not agree with them. But taking questions from all sides is part of politics, and part of being President. I'm running to be President for all people in this country."

  • Costs and savings

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    Earlier today, we noted that the campaign fact sheet detailing Obama's health-care plan didn't include the costs or how Obama plans to pay for them. Well, the campaign just sent us a memo from three Harvard experts who break down the plan. According to the experts, Obama's universal health insurance proposal would require between $50-$65 billion in new federal funds per year. And they say that $65 billion a year "is roughly the amount of revenue that would be raised by restoring the top two personal income tax brackets and rates on dividends and capital gains to Clinton-era levels, and retaining the estate tax with a $7 million exemption rather than repealing it."

    Yet the experts also estimate that Obama's plan -- especially its call for investments in new information technology, reducing insurance industry overhead, and improve disease management -- could save the overall US economy $120-$200 billion per year.

  • First thoughts

    From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
    *** Policy Time: The day after Memorial Day brings two big policy rollouts: Clinton on income inequality and Obama's health-care plan. The Obama campaign tells First Read that his plan will provide universal health-care and will save the typical family up to $2,500 each year. The plan, among other things, will 1) give individuals the choice to buy affordable health coverage that is similar to the plan available to federal employees; 2) require all employers to contribute to their employee's health coverage; and 3) create a National Health Insurance Exchange that will help individuals looking to purchase private insurance. What's missing (at least from the fact sheet the campaign gave us): its cost and how Obama plans to pay for it. Meanwhile, Clinton's speech, her campaign says, will identify income inequality as a 2008 campaign issue and outline her approach in dealing with economic issues. Note: Now that the top three Dems have all unveiled at least a portion of their health-care plans, look for uber-analysis of the three for differences/similarities in the coming days.

    *** Troop Pullout? Perhaps the biggest news over the Memorial Day weekend was that the Administration is debating a troop cut in 2008. This release is designed, in part, to keep wayward Republicans from abandoning Bush on Iraq this calendar year and possibly buying political time. If this is indeed a real proposal, then expect the debate between the Democrats and Republicans to be over the size of the cut. The likely Dem talking point: Pulling out a little is akin to being a little pregnant -- it's just not plausible and will only cut down on the number of weekly U.S. troop deaths, but it won't eliminate them. The likely GOP talking point: We can't abandon Iraq completely -- after all, we broke it, and we have to fix it.

    *** Blog This: Cleaning up from last week's Iraq supplemental vote… Just how did anti-war blogosphere favorites, Sherrod Brown from Ohio, Jim Webb from Virginia, and Jon Tester from Montana vote the opposite of Obama and Clinton? Why didn't Clinton or Obama use the three frosh Senate Dems as cover to vote yes? Why hasn't the anti-war left its their anger at Webb/Brown/Tester?

    *** The Day The Immigration Lights Went Out In Georgia? Bush heads to Georgia to sell his prickly comprehensive immigration reform proposal. Georgia, of course, is the state where Republicans reportedly booed/hissed their own senator, Saxby Chambliss (R), for his support of the proposal. Will Bush get a warmer reception?

    *** Unscathed: The Clinton camp escaped the weekend relatively unscathed considering all the negative potential that was there (the Iowa memo and the new books about the Clintons). Her first Iowa trip post-memo was not only successful, but got more local press than normal because of it. And then the book fallout seems minimal, although that could still change once the authors go public. The only negative storyline that was pursued was courtesy of today's New York Post, which claims there is a NY-DC rift in the campaign. But do consider that the key "New York" staff has moved to DC, so the story may be a little more than hype.

    *** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Biden continues to stump in Iowa, giving the keynote address at the National Security Network Luncheon in Des Moines; McCain hits a fundraiser in San Diego and then participates in the Wall Street Journal's "All Things Digital" conference; and Romney spends his entire day campaigning in New Hampshire.

    Countdown to GA-10 Special Election: 20 days
    Countdown to CA-37 Special Election: 27 days
    Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 73 days
    Countdown to MA-05 Special Election: 97 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2007: 160 days
    Countdown to Iowa: 229 days
    Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 251 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2008: 524 days
    Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 601 days
     

  • Iraq

    Here's the Saturday New York Times report on the troop-cut discussion. "Still, there is no indication that Mr. Bush is preparing to call an early end to the current troop increase, and one reason officials are talking about their long-range strategy may be to blunt pressure from members of Congress, including some Republicans who are pushing for a more rapid troop reduction."

    Lots of chatter about the intelligence report that circulated around the White House BEFORE the Iraq invasion, which predicated many of the problems the Administration is experiencing right now in Iraq. Recall that on Thursday, Bush all but admitted that he was briefed about this report when he brushed off a question about the report saying he received a lot of advice but he made the call that ridding Iraq of Saddam Hussein was the overriding right thing to do.

    McCain has a new talking point regarding Iraq and this call for a "Plan B": "'I believe that General (Dwight) Eisenhower didn't have a Plan B at Normandy, and I don't think that General (Ulysses S.) Grant had a plan B when he decided to take Richmond,' said McCain, referring to turning-point battles in World War II and the Civil War. 'I know of a number of other options - the problem is, none of them are any good.'"

    Speaking of Iraq and 2008, the Boston Globe's Canellos has noticed that all three GOP frontrunners "are increasingly echoing words and phrases used by President Bush in the run-up to the war that reinforce the misleading impression that Iraq was responsible for the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks."

  • Immigration

    The AP previews Bush's visit to Georgia today, where he "will visit the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center in Brunswick today to talk about immigration. Bush will highlight enforcement provisions in the immigration package that Congress is considering. He'll note that the plan calls for more immigration and border patrol agents and more fences along the border, as well as an employment verification system."

    The New York Times is the latest to look at the flak -- or its flack (just kidding)? -- that conservative GOP senator Jon Kyl has received over his support for the immigration package. "Angry calls poured into Senator Jon Kyl's office this week by the thousands, expressing outrage beyond anything he said he had witnessed in his 20-year political career. The callers were inflamed by Mr. Kyl's role in shaping the bipartisan immigration compromise announced May 17, which lawmakers continue to debate."

    Meanwhile, McCain is trying to take his immigration lemons and turn them into lemonade. He's beating back the Romney and Giuliani criticism over the legislation with calls for them to produce their own plan. "'It's the easiest thing in the world to say no to things,' said McCain. 'My job is to do the hard things.'"

  • More oh-eight (D)

    BIDEN: Despite being one of the many Senate Democrats to vote for the Iraq war supplemental, he sounded just as anti-Iraq as any Democratic presidential contender while campaigning in Iowa this weekend.

    And yet, Biden was also embracing the fact that he was the only major Dem contender to vote for the supplemental, particularly on this Memorial Day weekend.

    Also of note, Biden unveiled a Web ad focused on his work to get more mine-resistant vehicles to the military. It's a 60-second spot, so one gets the feeling this was designed to eventually find its way on the TV airwaves.

    CLINTON: The one upside to last week's leaked she-might-skip-Iowa memo? It meant the local Iowa press corps covered her weekend trip with an increased intensity that's usually reserved for a time closer to the caucuses. Said Clinton at one stop: "'I'm going to spend so much time in Iowa, I'm going to be able to caucus for myself,' she said.

    Apparently, Tom Vilsack, the former Iowa governor-turned-presidential-candidate-turned-Clinton-surrogate, is getting a higher profile on the campaign. (Thanks to the memo? You be the judge.) But the fact is if he delivers Iowa for Clinton, then the running mate speculation will be intense.

    The Sunday New York Times used that memo to kick off a story about the early voting deadlines in Tsunami Tuesday states that will hit in early January -- before Iowa. While this is an intriguing issue on paper, remember that the folks who vote weeks in advance on an election are the most passionate supporters of a particular candidate. A very large percentage of supposed early voters will actually wait until closer to February 5.

    Keeping things very short to allow for some weekend catch up. This lawsuit against the InfoUSA founder could cause the Clinton campaign a minor headache or two, thanks to the amount of money the company paid Bill Clinton.

    Vin Gupta, the founder of InfoUSA and the target of the lawsuit, fought back hard in an interview in the Indian publication, Rediff.com. The publication interviewed Gupta from Singapore. Gupta unloaded on the Times and Obama, accusing the two of a conspiracy to target the Clintons. It's a fascinating read that one can't do justice via summary.

    Did the Clinton campaign successfully control the story regarding those new books that bring up the dreaded marriage chatter? Apparently so -- she wasn't asked once about them while in Iowa this past weekend. Of course, what is there to ask? The Sunday Washington Post: "Clinton advisers say the early reaction confirms their belief that Americans long ago digested those controversies, drew whatever conclusions they wanted and moved on."

    DODD: No one can say the Connecticut senator isn't trying everything, including new technologies. The question for a lot of longtime Dodd watchers is why none of this has translated into more primary support.

    EDWARDS: Edwards spent Memorial Day at home with his family, but on the campaign trail in Iowa Sunday, he took advantage of the opportunity to talk about Iraq, NBC's Lauren Appelbaum says. "The Congress has now, I think, let America down. Because they've submitted to the president a bill, which he's going to sign of course, which doesn't have the timetable for withdrawal. And the only power the Congress has is their constitutional power to fund. The Democrats in the Congress are doing the will of the America. America wants this war to be ended. They want our troops to be brought home. It's Bush who's bullheaded and doesn't care what the country thinks."
     
    OBAMA: Per excerpts released by his campaign, Obama will say this when unveiling his health-care proposal: "My plan begins by covering every American.  If you already have health insurance, the only thing that will change for you under this plan is the amount of money you will spend on premiums.  That will be less.  If you are one of the 45 million Americans who don't have health insurance, you will have it after this plan becomes law.  No one will be turned away because of a preexisting condition or illness.  Everyone will be able buy into a new health insurance plan that's similar to the one that every federal employee – from a postal worker in Iowa to a Congressman in Washington – currently has for themselves… If you cannot afford this insurance, you will receive a subsidy to pay for it."

    The AP on his plan: Under Obama's proposal, everyone would be able to obtain health insurance, and the Illinois senator would create a National Health Insurance Exchange to monitor insurance companies in offering the coverage. In essence, Obama's plan retains the private insurance system but injects additional money into the system to pay for the expanded coverage.

    Obama spent the weekend in New Hampshire and brought his two kids, his wife, and in-laws. He even spent time campaigning in the less-populated northern part of the state. Due note the end of the piece, which predicts that a lot of the state's independents are likely to vote in the Democratic primary rather than the GOP primary. In '00, more indies chose to vote in the GOP primary.

    NBC's Marisa Buchanan passes along this fundraiser invite she uncovered for an Obama event in Beijing. No doubt Obama will likely have a huge following among US ex-pats. Obama will apparently call into the Beijing fundraiser on June 7.

    RICHARDSON: If you missed Bill Richardson's appearance on "Meet" on Sunday, the campaign is probably pleased. This exchange toward the end says it all...

    RICHARDSON: I've been in public life 25 years. You're going to find a lot of these [contradictions].  It seems you've found them all here.
    MR. RUSSERT:  Well, I'm just trying to set the record and trying to give you a chance to respond, which is fair.
    GOV. RICHARDSON: OK. No, yeah, that's fine.

  • More oh-eight (R)

    BROWNBACK: This Kansas City Star piece doesn't bill itself as a rundown of everything that's gone wrong for Sam Brownback's campaign, but it turns out to do just that.

    While campaigning in Iowa over the weekend, Brownback took a veiled shot at Giuliani, saying the eventual GOP nominee needs to uphold all aspects of the GOP platform -- both on the economic and social fronts.

    GIULIANI: The New York Times front-pages how Giuliani has softened his image and rhetoric on the campaign trail. "The dyspeptic, 'not afraid to suggest his opponents have really deep-seated psychological problems' Republican mayor of fact and legend has taken a holiday. What's left on the presidential campaign trail is a commanding daddy of a candidate, a disciplined fellow who talks about terrorism and fiscal order and about terrorism some more."

    The New York Post sees similarities between the speed bumps in the early stages of Giuliani's presidential campaign and the mistakes he made in his first bid for office -- the unsuccessful '89 mayoral race.

    HUCKABEE: While he left office thanks to a swift kick from the voters, it's still a big deal whom ex-South Carolina GOP Gov. David Beasley endorses. And he's gotten behind Huckabee, mostly due what he thought were Huckabee's standout debate performances.

    *** Update*** Just to be clear, the "swift kick from the voters" refers to Beasley, not Huckabee.

    MCCAIN: While everyone had a busy Memorial Day weekend of campaign events, no one had a bigger audience than John McCain, who was the honorary starter for the Coca-Cola 600, which attracts 200,000 fans.

    ROMNEY: The Washington Post hits Romney for his attacks on McCain-Feingold by noting that Romney, too, was for some very stringent campaign-finance reform measures when running for office in Massachusetts. Another flip-flop for Mitt?

    Are you aware that Romney has already spent approximately $4 million on TV ads? 

    The Politico's Wilner looks at Romney's Massachusetts problem. "We've seen presidential candidates hold up their home bases as assets, supposed proof to their parties that they can convert some sought-after state in the general election. We've also seen candidates get hammered by opponents for where they come from -- namely, the two previous nominees to hail from Massachusetts. Not in recent memory have we seen a candidate treat his own state as a liability. But after four years of governing Massachusetts and only five months out of office, that's what Romney is doing."
         
    F. THOMPSON: The fact that Tennessee GOP Rep. Marsha Blackburn decided to switch her allegiances from Romney to her ex-Tennessee colleague Fred Thompson isn't surprising. The question we have: How many supporters NOT from Tennessee will Romney, McCain, and Giuliani lose once Thompson gets in? 

  • Even more oh-eight

    The New Hampshire GOP is in some financial dire straits (thanks mostly to that never-ending phone-jamming lawsuit). Anyway, as a way to replenish their coffers, the party is charging '08 campaigns as much as $10,000 for prime speaking slots at its June 6 gala fundraiser. Romney and Brownback have chipped in the $10,000 so far.

    The AP does the first of what will be many articles about super delegates, the 200-plus unaffiliated Democratic delegates (all elected officials) that both Obama and Clinton (mainly) will be pursuing. But don't get too caught up in this fight since these folks will go with the candidate who has the best chance to be the nominee, even if that means changing allegiances a few times.

  • Congress

    With Congress in the midst of Memorial Day recess, the reviews aren't great for the new sheriffs in town. Congress job rating is just as low now with Democrats in charge as it was a year ago when the GOP still ran things. This is a bigger problem for the Democrats than many in the party appreciate right now. Saturday's New York Times: "Democrats themselves reflected that little came easily over the last five months, which offered a lesson in the difficulties of governing with very slim majorities, especially in the Senate. Moreover, there are real fault lines and divisions within the party, most apparent, perhaps, on how fast and how far to go in demanding an end to the war in Iraq."

  • Note to our readers

    We won't be publishing during the three-day Memorial Day weekend. But we'll see you bright and early Tuesday morning.

    Have a great and safe weekend!

  • McCain hits back

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    Wow, talk about a day full of attacks and counterattacks in the presidential race! Here's McCain's response to Obama's earlier comment: "While Senator Obama's two years in the U.S. Senate certainly entitle him to vote against funding our troops, my service and experience combined with conversations with military leaders on the ground in Iraq lead me to believe that we must give this new strategy a chance to succeed because the consequences of failure would be catastrophic to our nation's security."

    More from McCain: "By the way, Senator Obama, it's a 'flak' jacket, not a 'flack' jacket."

  • Condi Rice for governor?

    From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
    On a trip to California this week, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has done so many non-foreign policy photo-ops that local reporters have been speculating she's laying the groundwork for a run for governor. Now she's added fuel to that speculation by giving a very non-Sherman-like answer to a question about having future political ambitions. The transcript of the Q&A with a local newspaper reporter was just released by the State Department.

    Asked about running for governor, Rice answered: " Look, one doesn't ever know what life may bring, but I sure don't have any plans to run for office." In the past, Rice has always simply said she plans to return to teaching in Stanford. Since she never speaks carelessly, this is a significant departure. 

    Transcript of the relevant Q&A follows:
    QUESTION:  Okay. Since we're on your future, there's a lot of speculation over the last couple of years. I think a couple years ago you were in the news, you know, would you take on Schwarzenegger. Do you have any political ambitions and would you rule -- would you definitively rule out ever running for elective office in California?

    SECRETARY RICE: Well, I don't see myself running for elective office. I really don't. I don't think I ever ran for student government, actually. But look, one doesn't ever know what life will bring, but I sure don't have any plans to run for office.

  • Obama fires back at McCain, Romney

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    The Obama campaign just released a statement in response to the criticisms McCain and Romney issued on Obama's votes against the Iraq supplemental. "This country is united in our support for our troops, but we also owe them a plan to relieve them of the burden of policing someone else's civil war," Obama said. "Governor Romney and Senator McCain clearly believe the course we are on in Iraq is working, but I do not. And if there ever was a reflection of that it's the fact that Senator McCain required a flack jacket, ten armored Humvees, two Apache attack helicopters, and 100 soldiers with rifles by his side to stroll through a market in Baghdad just a few weeks ago." Ouch.

    More from Obama: "Governor Romney and Senator McCain are still supporting a war that has cost us thousands of lives, made us less safe in the world, and resulted in a resurgence of al-Qaeda.  It is time to end this war so that we can redeploy our forces to focus on the terrorists who attacked us on 9/11 and all those who plan to do us harm."

  • Hillary and the 2002 NIE

    From NBC's Bob Windrem and Mark Murray
    A new book's revelation that Hillary Clinton did not read the CIA National Intelligence Estimate on Iraqi WMD before voting on war authorization should not be a surprise. Most congressmen and senators didn't. And there is a (classified) list of who did and who didn't because members had to visit a secure room -- called the SCIF -- at the Capitol to view it. Members have to sign the document out. In the case of the NIE on Iraq, there were separate logs for the five-page executive summary and the full 90-page NIE.

    According to a former senior US intelligence official, "only a handful" of congressmen and senators actually went to the SCIF and signed out the NIE. Most who did were members of the intelligence and armed services committees.  Although the log is classified, several senators have admitted either reading or not reading the report. Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-WV, of the Senate Intelligence Committee was one who admitted he read it. Among those who have admitted they didn't were Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, D-FL, and Sen. Harry Reid, D-NV, now Senate majority leader.

    The Washington Post also reported this back in 2004: "In the fall of 2002, as Congress debated waging war in Iraq, copies of a 92-page assessment of Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction sat in two vaults on Capitol Hill, each protected by armed security guards and available to any member who showed up in person, without staff. But only a few ever did. No more than six senators and a handful of House members read beyond the five-page National Intelligence Estimate executive summary, according to several congressional aides responsible for safeguarding the classified material."

    But even if Clinton wasn't alone in not reading the NIE, the question arises: Did she do everything possible to have the best information on Iraq WMD before casting her war authorization vote?

  • GOP pounce on Clinton, Obama

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    Well, the GOP knives are out after Clinton's and Obama's vote against the Iraq supplemental last night. Said McCain in a statement: "I was very disappointed to see Senator Obama and Senator Clinton embrace the policy of surrender by voting against funds to support our brave men and women fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. This vote may win favor with MoveOn and liberal primary voters, but it's the equivalent of waving a white flag to al Qaeda."

    Added Romney: "At a time when the men and women of our military fighting terrorism around the globe needed them most, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama cast a vote that singularly defines their lack of leadership and serves as a glaring example of an unrealistic and inexperienced worldview on national security that is regrettably shared by too many of their fellow Capitol Hill Democrats."

    Those comments on Clinton and Obama will obviously play well with GOP primary voters. But the general public? Maybe not so much. A new New York Times/CBS poll finds that 76% believe things are going badly in Iraq; another 76% say the troop surge has made no impact or has made things worse; and 63% believe the US should set a date for withdrawing troops next year.

  • First thoughts

    From Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
    *** Safety Dance: The safe thing to do if you're a Democrat running for president was to do what Clinton, Dodd, and Obama did: vote against the Iraq supplemental. But ask yourself this question: What if Clinton had voted for it? There was plenty of cover (including Al Gore, by the way), and she might have gotten very "presidential" type coverage since she was doing the supposedly unpopular thing. To put it another way, will anti-Iraq Democrats ever give her the credit for this vote?

    *** A Tough Week: Speaking of Clinton, she's had quite a week, hasn't she? First, there was that now-rejected campaign memo recommending that she skip Iowa -- where, of all places, she campaigns today. Next, there was the vote on the Iraq supplemental. And now there's the early release of two biographies on her that will do nothing but dredge up the marriage chatter. The release of these Clinton books, in fact, will likely lead to some negative press for her. No surprise, but compared to Obama and Edwards, she had been garnering the best press of the three these first five months of the campaign. These books might change that.

    *** The Silent Majority? Opponents of the Senate immigration bill -- and trust us, there are many -- like to point out how the legislation defies the will of the American people. But the New York Times/CBS poll shows something different: 66% favor a guest-worker program, and 62% believe that illegal immigrants who have lived in the US for two years should be allowed to apply for legal status.

    *** The Right's New Target? Note how Giuliani and Romney ganged up on Edwards after he said that the war on terror is just a slogan. And Edwards shoved back. "George Bush has made America less safe and less respected in the world," he said in a statement yesterday. "The Republican candidates are now trying to double down on his failed foreign policy. They just don't get it. George Bush's strategy is a failure - the threat of terrorism has increased."

    *** Three Additional Thoughts: A few things struck us about Bush's presser yesterday. One, he really wanted to talk about immigration, but didn't get enough questions on the topic. Maybe there really is an elite-grassroots disparity on this issue where we (the media) don't get what the grassroots doesn't like about this bill. Two, why did Bush TWICE personalize answers on Iraq by talking about the safety of individual reporters' children? Imagine if the media had personalized a question to Bush about his kids? Three, Bush used the phrase "different configuration" when talking about Iraq. You got the sense he and the White House have decided they don't want to use the word "redeployment" that is popular with Democrats, but still offer up the same idea.

    *** On The Trail: As the Memorial Day holiday begins, Obama gives a speech in Chicago to the Coalition of Black Trade Unionists; Paul appears on Bill Maher's HBO show; Richardson fundraises in New Mexico; and Tommy Thompson campaigns in New Hampshire.

    Countdown to the Ames Straw Poll: 77 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2007: 164 days
    Countdown to Iowa: 233 days
    Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 255 days
    Countdown to Election Day 2008: 528 days
    Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 605 days

  • Iraq

    The Los Angeles Times: "Bringing to a close an extended showdown between Congress and President Bush over the Iraq war, overwhelmingly united Republicans and deeply divided Democrats passed a $120-billion emergency war spending bill Thursday that would not require U.S. combat troops to be withdrawn… By codifying political steps the Iraqi government should take to reduce sectarian strife, the bill gives Republicans linked to the unpopular war the opportunity to back legislation that puts new requirements on the Baghdad government. And it forced vanquished antiwar Democrats — who since January had been waging a fierce campaign to use the funding bill to force a troop withdrawal — to pin their hopes on future legislation." 

    The Washington Post: Bush, who had vowed to veto any legislation with restrictions on troop deployments, announced he would sign the $120 billion package, which was approved 80 to 14 last night in the Senate, after a 280 to 142 House vote… The focus now shifts to September, when the new funding runs out, and when U.S. commanders say they will be able to assess the results of an ongoing troop buildup."

    If you're keeping track, Clinton, Dodd, and Obama were among the 14 senators who voted against the Iraq supplemental last night; Biden voted for it. Here are their statements:

    BIDEN: "I would have liked nothing better than to vote against this bill. But I have to deal with reality. And the reality is this:  First, for now, those of us who want to change course in Iraq don't have the 67 votes to override the President's veto. As long as the President refuses to budge, the only way to force him to change his policy in Iraq is with 67 votes in the Senate… Second, I believe that as long as we have troops on the front lines, it is our shared responsibility to give them the equipment and protection they need."

    CLINTON: "Tonight I voted against the Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Bill because it fails to compel the President to give our troops a new strategy in Iraq. I believe that the President should begin a phased redeployment of our troops out of Iraq and abandon this escalation. I fully support our troops, and wish the President had followed the will of the people and signed the original bill we sent which both funded the troops and set a new course of phased redeployment. But the President vetoed Congress's new strategy and so Congress must reject the President's failed policies."

    DODD: "I believe that the Senate tonight made a grave mistake when it voted to give this President another blank check to pay for his failed policy in Iraq. Continuing on this course in Iraq means further damaging our national security interests and our standing in the world. I will continue to fight for a firm deadline for the safe re-deployment of U.S. combat troops using the power of the Congressional purse to compel the President to abandon his failed policies, because that is the only way to responsibly bring this war to a conclusion."

    OBAMA: "This vote is a choice between validating the same failed policy in Iraq that has cost us so many lives and demanding a new one.  And I am demanding a new one. We must fund our troops.  But we owe them something more.  We owe them a clear, prudent plan to relieve them of the burden of policing someone else's civil war."

  • Immigration

    The New York Times front-pages the immigration numbers in the new NYT/CBS poll. "Two-thirds of those polled said illegal immigrants who had a good employment history and no criminal record should gain legal status as the bill proposes, which is by paying at least $5,000 in fines and fees and receiving a renewable four-year visa. Many Republican lawmakers have rejected this plan, calling it amnesty that rewards immigrants who broke the law when they entered the United States. But the poll showed that differences are not great between Republicans and Democrats on this issue, with 66 percent of Republicans in the poll favoring the legalization proposal, as well as 72 percent of Democrats and 65 percent of independents."

    In his LA Times column, Ron Brownstein thinks the Senate immigration compromise is a good one.

    By a 66-29 vote yesterday, the Senate approved a provision that would give legal status to most of the nation's 12 million illegal immigrants.

  • More oh-eight (D)

    BIDEN: Influential New Hampshire state senator Lou D'Allesandro has invited Biden to attend one of his house party's next Friday, the Boston Globe reports.

    CLINTON: The Washington Post got its hands on the two new Clinton books that have the Clinton campaign nervous. "'A Woman in Charge: The Life of Hillary Rodham Clinton,' by Carl Bernstein reports that Clinton as first lady was terrified she would be prosecuted, took over her own legal and political defense, and decided not to be forthcoming with investigators because she was convinced she was unfairly targeted. While in Arkansas according to Bernstein, she personally interviewed one woman alleged to have had an affair with her husband, contemplated divorce and thought about running for governor out of anger at her husband's indiscretions."

    More: "'Her Way: The Hopes and Ambitions of Hillary Rodham Clinton,' by Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta Jr., reports that during her husband's 1992 campaign, a team she oversaw hired a private investigator to undermine Gennifer Flowers 'until she is destroyed.' Flowers had said publicly that she had an affair with Bill Clinton while he was governor of Arkansas. The book also suggests that Hillary Clinton did not read the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in 2002 before voting to authorize war. And it includes a third hand report that the Clintons had a secret plan after the 1992 election in which he would have eight years as president and then she would have eight years, although last night a key source disavowed the story."

    Even more: "Howard Wolfson, a campaign spokesman, pointed to previous reports on some of the elements in the books to make the point that there was nothing new. 'The news here is that it took three reporters nearly a decade to find no news,' he said. He added: 'Two overwhelming Senate victories in the toughest media market in the country demonstrated that voters have put these issues behind them.'"

    But while the personal stuff will fascinate most of you today, this nugget from the Gerth/ Van Natta book may become more politically significant. "Clinton's Senate spokesman, seemed to confirm last night that she did not read the NIE, saying by e-mail that she was 'briefed multiple times by several members of the administration on their intelligence regarding Iraq, including being briefed on the NIE.' So Clinton really didn't read the NIE? What will the Obama camp do with that piece of info?

    By the way, the Des Moines Register could not find too many Iowa Democrats worried about Clinton skipping Iowa. And that's chalked up to her Iowa staff keeping everyone in the state calm. 

    And did you notice that Clinton began rolling out her health-care plan yesterday? Considering the fact that Iraq, Iowa, and now the new books are stepping on coverage of it, you're forgiven if you missed her speech yesterday too. For those that want to know, she rolled out the least controversial part of her plan -- the cost-cutting measures.

    EDWARDS: The candidate flanking hardest to the left has had some trouble convincing gay rights activists that he's pro-gay. Yesterday, he made some progress by coming out in favor of gay immigration rights for U.S. citizens who have foreign partners.

    GORE: It's time to dub the ex-vice president the Paul Simon of politics, since he's now come up with 50 ways to say he's not running and yet not convince anyone he isn't at least remotely dreaming about it. Here are two new ways we found in the Los Angeles Times today.
    *** "I haven't completely ruled out the possibility of thinking about it sometime in the future, but I don't expect to"
    *** "I have no desire to slam the door shut, nor any particular reason to make a Sherman-esque statement ["If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve"] 500 days before an election. It's pointless."

    RICHARDSON: The New Mexico governor appears on NBC's Meet the Press for the full hour this Sunday as part of the program's Meet the Candidate series.

    Check out what Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston said about Bill Richardson and Yucca Mountain. First, here's Richardson's statement on Yucca: "The legislation proposed yesterday by Senators Domenici and Craig threatens millions of Americans," said Governor Richardson.  "For more than 20 years, in Congress and as Secretary of Energy, I have opposed the Yucca Mountain project. This decision must be based on science, not politics, and decades of scientific study show that Yucca Mountain is unsuitable for high-level nuclear waste storage. I am proud to stand with Harry Reid in opposing this threat to the health and safety of Nevadans and urge the Senate to put a quick end to this dangerous legislation." 

    Adds Ralston in his daily flash email: "I don't understand why Richardson keeps saying he opposed Yucca Mountain as DOE boss. He did not. He opposed interim storage, but not the permanent dump. There is congressional testimony that shows this and the dump did not slow down under his tenure."

  • More oh-eight (R)

    GINGRICH: The ex-speaker apparently drew 1,200 to a speech yesterday at the Nixon library.

    GIULIANI: The campaign has hired Donald Trump Jr. as a fundraiser. Trump's father has endorsed both Giuliani and Clinton.

    MCCAIN: On June 18, McCain's campaign will hold a major fundraiser in Boston -- Romney's home turf -- with former acting Gov. Jane Swift among the organizers. 
     
    Business Week has an interview with McCain. Here's one notable excerpt:
    Q: How is America perceived around the world?
    A: It's worse probably than it has ever been. When I'm President, I will close Guantánamo Bay. I will address climate change in the most serious fashion. And we will never torture another person being held in detention. And I would be humble.

    PAUL: He got his moment in the sun yesterday with his attack on Giuliani at the National Press Club. Per the New York Times' Caucus blog, "Paul expressed disbelief that Mr. Giuliani had never heard the occupation explanation before and suggested the 'possibility that Mr. Giuliani has not been well informed.' 'I don't think he's qualified to be president, mainly because of his views,' Mr. Paul said of Mr. Giuliani. 'I'm giving Mr. Giuliani a reading assignment," he announced. Here's the syllabus:
    –"Blowback" by Chalmers Johnston
    –"Dying to Win" by Robert A. Pape
    –"Imperial Hubris" by Michael Sheuer (The former head of the C.I.A.'s Osama bin Laden Unit was there to bolster Mr. Paul's calls for a new, non-interventionist foreign policy.)
    –The 9/11 Commission Report

    The Dallas Morning News: "Responding, the Giuliani campaign said Dr. Paul's claims were reckless and that to 'declare Rudy Giuliani needs to be educated on September 11th when millions of people around the world saw him dealing with these terrorist attacks firsthand is just as absurd.'"

    ROMNEY: The former governor has moved so far to the right on some key social issues that he now garners headlines when he says something more liberal on a social stance. In this case, he says he's NOT anti-gay, even though he's against gay marriage.

    F. THOMPSON: The candidate-to-be spoke last night in Connecticut at the annual Prescott Bush awards dinner. According to the New York Sun, Thompson started his speech "with some decidedly non-red meat, praising Mr. Shays, who was supposed to be at the dinner last night but had to be in Washington to vote. He then noted Senator Lieberman's support for Mr. Thompson's investigation into the Clinton-China fund-raising scandal in the 1990s, disclosing that he was 'proud' to have given money to Mr. Lieberman's campaign (which one wasn't specified)." All in all, the reporter came away convinced Thompson was running.

    Where will Thompson get his seed money? Try '00 and '04 Bush donors. According to a Business Week analysis over 600 Bush Pioneers/Rangers have yet to give money to the GOP candidates.

  • Even more oh-eight

    In his weekly National Journal column, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook takes a look at the 2nd quarter money race, which he says presents challenges for all the front-runners. "Much of the cash raised during the first quarter was 'love money' – contributions from candidates' most loyal friends and supporters. But to be truly competitive, a presidential campaign must build many concentric circles of financial support beyond the candidate's Christmas card list and the ranks of previous contributors."

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