From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi.
While the presidential contenders court key constituencies, top operatives, influential endorsers and big donors, the public is more engaged in the race and their opinions of the candidates are being given greater weight at this early stage than ever before.  Twenty months before the 2008 election, 73% of those surveyed by NBC and the Wall Street Journal say they're following the presidential race closely, an interest level approaching the 86% who said they were paying close attention just one month before the 2000 presidential election. 

The result is anxiety and perhaps some second-guessing for the campaigns as they ponder whether the old tried-and-true formula for success in what used to be "the invisible primary" will continue to work in these early months of the 2008 race, or whether poll results will become as determinant, as soon, as fundraising and endorsements. 

GOP Sen. John McCain's campaign, for example, certainly would prefer to talk about the support he received from a handful of state attorneys general yesterday than about the NBC/Journal results showing Rudy Giuliani nearly tripling his lead over the Arizona senator since December.  In previous nominating fights, winning nods from the top law enforcement officials in early-primary states like South Carolina and Michigan was a coup.  Today, that victory is being weighed alongside Giuliani's 14-point lead over McCain in a national primary trial heat, 38% to 24%.  Three months ago, the spread was 5 points.

Poll results like these undercut Team McCain's efforts to cast him as the early frontrunner for the Republican nod through the time-honored hard work of courting key supporters, with an eye toward the party's tradition of identifying an early favorite and sticking with him.  Per this survey and others, NBC/Journal pollster Peter Hart (D) says, McCain has "moved from being the person to watch to the leading challenger" to Giuliani, largely because his staunch support for a US troop increase in Iraq is costing him among Democrats, but at the same time, isn't helping him among Republicans. 

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) is trying to reintroduce herself to the country, one constituency group at a time.  It doesn't help to have the reality check of the NBC/Journal survey showing that only 28% of Americans are interested in learning more about her, and that she receives her highest personal negative rating in the survey in five years, scoring 39% positive and 43% negative.  "There's not a lot of room out there to define herself further," says NBC/Journal pollster Neil Newhouse (R), who also points out that 48% of Democratic primary voters have a problem with her refusal to apologize for her vote for the war.

Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama in a primary trial heat, 40% to 28%, with former Sen. John Edwards at 15%.  In December, Clinton topped the poll at 37% with Obama trailing further behind at 18%.  The poll was conducted from March  2-5 of 1,007 adults.

For these candidates who at least began the race as the presumptive frontrunners, not only are their positions on Iraq shaping the public's views of them, but Iraq is driving this unprecedented early interest to begin with.  Deepening unhappiness over the war is smothering Bush's presidency.  His job approval rating remains well below 40%, at 35%, and only one-fourth of those polled think the country is headed in the right direction.  Sixty-three percent oppose a troop increase and only 20% are confident that the war will come to a successful conclusion.  As Hart suggests, "the American public really wants to move on." 

For more on the poll, click here.

President Bush heads to Brazil today while Democratic lawmakers in Washington roll out their proposal for how to handle his request for $100 billion in supplemental funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  And in an interesting juxtaposition of circumstances, Karl Rove gives a lecture at the Clinton presidential library in Little Rock on "an insider's guide to the presidency."  Per the library, Rove will touch on the administrations of Bush and Clinton, as well as other past presidents including Harry Truman and Richard Nixon.

 

The AP says of the forthcoming Democratic bill on the supplemental, "Democrats familiar with the emerging legislation said the bill would require President Bush to certify that the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was making progress toward providing for his country's security, allocating its oil revenues and creating a fair system for amending its constitution.  They said if Bush certified the Iraqis were meeting these so-called benchmarks, U.S. combat troops could remain until September of next year.  Otherwise, the deadline would move up to the end of 2007." 

The Washington Post on Democrats' split over the bill: "Because Republicans have stood remarkably united against the Democratic effort, the loss of just a handful of Democratic votes could lead to an embarrassing public defeat.  At least a dozen of the 43 conservative 'Blue Dogs'… could bolt if Democrats move toward withdrawal too aggressively.  But dozens of antiwar Democrats say they cannot support legislation that is too meek." 

Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the day-to-day commander of US ground forces in Iraq, "has recommended that the heightened American troop levels there be maintained through February 2008, military officials said Wednesday," per the New York Times.  "The White House has never said exactly how long it intends the troop buildup to last, but military officials say the increased American force level will begin declining in August unless additional units are sent or more units are held over." 

MoveOn and Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg unveil a new opinion survey at the National Press Club on Iraq and how it's playing out in key 2008 battleground districts.

 

In an interview with Univision, Bush indicated that there's no imminent pardon in the works for Libby, and that he will stay out of the matter until the legal process is complete.  NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that according to the White House, Vice President Cheney remains a trusted aide and his advice remains valuable to Bush.  Bush and Cheney have seen each other and spoken since the verdict on Tuesday, but no information has been provided about whether they discussed the outcome.  And the White House continues to say that because an appeals process will begin, it cannot comment on the case.

Covering prominent conservatives' efforts to persuade Bush to pardon Libby, USA Today reports, "Speculation is so rampant that the futures trading site intrade.com is allowing people to bet on the likelihood of a Libby pardon by year's end…  Bush has been stingy (or careful, as his spokesman puts it) with his clemency authority.  He has granted 113 pardons in six years, compared with 396 by Clinton during his eight-year tenure and 393 by Ronald Reagan." 

Bob Novak, whose 2003 column sparked the CIA leak controversy that led to Libby's conviction, seems to suggest that Libby should receive a pardon.  "Bush lost control of this issue when he permitted a special prosecutor to make decisions that, unlike going after a drug dealer or mafia kingpin, turned out to be inherently political.  It would have taken courage for the president to have aborted this process.  It would require even more courage for him to pardon Scooter Libby now, not while he is walking out of the White House in January 2009."  

"No one knows better than Libby how politically hazardous a pardon can be.  Before he became Cheney's chief of staff, Libby served as an attorney for Marc Rich, the financier whose pardon by President Bill Clinton in the last hours of his administration provoked a storm of complaints.  Now Libby finds himself in the same situation as his onetime client, hoping for a president's beneficence." 

As Bush heads off to Latin America, the Dallas Morning News looks at the strained relationship between the United States and the region.  "The Iraq war has been very unpopular in the region, and there is a general view that the United States has been disinterested in its own hemisphere, creating fertile terrain for a latent anti-Americanism that the Bush visit will either defuse or ignite.  On the streets of Latin America, it's hard to say which way it will go." 

"Beset by dangers abroad and rivals at home, the Bush administration has embarked on a broad adjustment of its foreign policy in hopes of using its final two years to improve a record now widely viewed as a failure," says the Los Angeles Times, which sees signs of the shifts in policy toward North Korea, Syria, Iran, Pakistan, and Latin America.

"Senate Democrats are looking to tie the recent guilty verdict in the Scooter Libby CIA leak trial with the Bush administration's controversial decision to sack a number of U.S. attorneys late last year as part of a broader national attack on what they call a chronic abuse of the justice system for political gain, aides" tell Roll Call.  "At the same time, the House Democratic leaders are prepping for a weeklong accountability and oversight push next week that will focus on their party's efforts to rein in corruption and to make the case that… the White House is now being held accountable for its actions." 

The New York Times writes that the Senate Judiciary Committee yesterday took the first step toward issuing subpoenas to five Justice Department officials linked to the dismissals of US attorneys.  "In another development, Senator Pete V. Domenici … has hired K. Lee Blalack II, a well-known defense lawyer, an aide to the senator said.  The lawyer will represent Mr. Domenici in an inquiry by the Senate Ethics Committee into whether the senator tried to pressure a United States attorney about a sensitive public corruption case before the 2006 elections." 

The Los Angeles Times says that questions about the actions of two New Mexico GOP lawmakers "have turned what might have been a narrow investigation of the Justice Department's late-2006 decision to fire" eight US attorneys "into a broader controversy about the ethical limits of lawmakers' influence on prosecutors…  Democrats see the New Mexico episode as indicative of the lengths Republicans were willing to go to gain political advantage in the crucial midterm elections…  Wilson's Democratic opponent in November, Patricia Madrid, accused [Rep. Heather] Wilson and [Sen. Pete] Domenici of crossing an ethical line with hardball tactics encouraged by Karl Rove." 

The Politico's Simon takes the latest look at the problematic split within the GOP over immigration reform (and notes that the issue may also cause Democrats problems with labor). 

 

The Wall Street Journal says of the NBC/Journal GOP horse-race results that "McCain aides vow a faster-paced travel schedule that gets the senator out of Washington and connecting with voters.  He will embark on bus tours of Iowa and New Hampshire… next week.  The McCain team argues that national polls overstate Mr. Giuliani's power in the race...  Yet they insist they won't soon joust with Mr. Giuliani in an attempt to blunt his momentum; instead, they aim to protect Mr. McCain's reputation for positive campaigning while hoping the media and lagging Republican candidates… feel greater urgency to scrutinize Mr. Giuliani's record and stances on hot-button issues."

McCain has an event and a media availability in New York City today.

The Washington Times covers Giuliani defying the CW so far by surging in the polls and in support within the GOP despite his moderate positions on social issues, which many have presumed would tank his prospects among conservatives.  Still, primary voters may not be taking a hard look at his record yet. 

Per the New York Times, Giuliani faces a hurdle that goes beyond his support for abortion rights and civil unions: He's a New Yorker.  "Americans like New York City…  Most find it vibrant, entertaining and an object of sympathy and pride since the terrorist attacks five and a half years ago that made Mr. Giuliani the national contender he is today.  But the city, with all its tumult and rough edges, is not for everyone.  And few people embody all the complicated facets of New York City as much as Mr. Giuliani." 

The AP looks at cracks in the conservative coalition.  "In the seven years since Bush beat John McCain en route to the Republican nomination, the coalition has spiraled into debt and its leadership has fractured.  The coalition is trying to resurrect its once-vaunted influence at a time when religious conservatives are struggling to find an acceptable candidate among the leading contenders for the 2008 Republican nomination." 

The Hill covers the top GOP contenders vacuuming up support along K Street. 

The New York Times on Sen. Chuck Hagel's expected announcement this coming Monday on whether he'll run for president: "If Mr. Hagel seeks the presidency, his candidacy would inject into the Republican contest the strongest conservative voice of criticism over the Iraq war.  Whether such views would win support in a Republican primary remains an open question." 

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told Sean Hannity on his radio show yesterday that she thinks Obama "is a very attractive person.  I think he's very smart.  And you know, I think he will do very well.  But I think ultimately people will make their decisions based on whether or not they share -- any candidate shares your values, whether you think any candidate is going to represent your interests.  I still think that's how Americans will choose their president."  Rice also sort of shot down the idea of joining a GOP ticket as the running mate: "I just don't see it" she said, insisting she was heading back to academia at Stanford.

It's no longer surprising to see local bystanders in Iowa or New Hampshire jostle for position for a coveted handshake or photo-op when Clinton comes to town.  What is surprising, NBC's Carrie Dann says, is seeing young Capitol Hill aides -- who are accustomed to rubbing elbows, or at least sharing elevators, with political celebrities -- react the same way.  At a Washington fundraiser last night for the South Carolina Democratic party, Palmetto Staters and Democratic Hill staffers whispered excitedly through emcee Mike McCurry's remarks as Clinton and fellow presidential contender Sen. Chris Dodd worked the packed ballroom.  One ebullient young woman gushed to a friend at the hors d'oeuvres table, "I just touched Hillary!"
 
Party leaders plugged the state's Democratic debate in late April (which will be brought to you by MSNBC), and the speakers emphasized South Carolina's growing political influence. "The path to the presidency... now goes right through South Carolina," Clinton exclaimed.

After the New York Times front-paged a report that Obama bought more than $50,000 worth of stock in two companies that included some of his biggest political donors, and later sold the stock at a net loss of $13,000, Obama took time out to address the story with reporters yesterday.  The Hill: "The fall of 2005 did make the pitfalls of qualified blind trusts abundantly clear, as former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) began grappling with an SEC investigation into his sale of stock from a quasi-blind trust.  Obama said Frist's troubles… helped explain his decision-making." 

The Financial Times says Obama "has assembled a powerful New York fundraising machine that is posing a challenge to [Clinton's] position as the dominant Democratic fundraiser on Wall Street…  However, prominent donors suggest that Mrs Clinton is still on course to break all records for fundraising at this stage in a presidential campaign." 

The New York Daily News also previews Obama's fundraiser tomorrow in Clinton's backyard: "Originally set for the Grand, formerly Au Bar, the $100-a-head fund-raiser aimed at younger people sold out so fast it was moved to one of the giant ballrooms at the Grand Hyatt on 42nd St…  Obama and his wife, Michelle, will attend a more exclusive grip-and-grin reception earlier at the same hotel for those paying a minimum of $1,000 each." 

Just before launching his presidential campaign, Obama made sure to take care of some old business.  Per the Boston Globe, he paid Harvard University for 17 unpaid parking tickets he racked up as a student there. 

The AP writes that two South Carolina legislators who are backing Clinton unsuccessfully tried to knock off Obama from speaking in April at a black legislators' gala in the state -- and replace him with Clinton. 

Clinton caught Iowa Rep. Janet Petersen at an awkward time last weekend.  Petersen was in the process of giving birth when Clinton called to talk "about maternal health legislation and some other political topics.  Clinton had never called before, but she'd heard Petersen… wouldn't be able to attend her private meeting with state Democrats at the Iowa Capitol on Monday," reports the Des Moines Register. 

Slate's Dickerson catches former Sen. John Edwards' campaign committing a bad edit (unintentionally or not?) in the DVD about Edwards' health care plan which the campaign sent to Iowans this week.  A clip showing a big crowd reaction to an Edwards comment about Iraq last month is used in the DVD to suggest big applause for an Edwards' line about health care. 

The Politico looks at how Gov. Bill Richardson's "campaign has been burdened by unusually public discussion about his behavior with women…  Richardson, in an interview with The Politico, denied behaving inappropriately…  Still, the concerns have become enough of a headwind for Richardson's campaign that the candidate has a more substantive response -- that his personal conduct was vetted, and effectively given a seal of approval, when he was considered for the vice presidential nomination… in 2004."  But no one involved in the vetting process is addressing the specifics. 

The Wall Street Journal says investment bank Bear Stearns is inviting the candidates to come address its senior managers and make pitches for donations. 

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Tiger Woods gamely posed for pictures with House leaders in the Capitol today, politely deflecting questions about the possibility that he might someday run for office himself, and other random queries from a fawning press corps. "I don't know what the future holds for me," Woods said in response to a question about whether he is considering entering the political arena. He cited his impending fatherhood and the new golf tournament that he is bringing to the Washington area this summer as the things that now occupy his mind.

The speaker's conference room was unusually crowded with cameras and reporters - many of whom were plainly delighted to lay eyes on the young legend - while House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and MInority Leader John Boehner (a noted golf enthusiast) delivered some very brief and perfunctory remarks that left one wondering what the point of this whole thing was. Through it all, Woods sat smiling placidly between Pelosi and  Boehner while lesser leaders basked in the reflected glow of  the man whose name recognition likely surpasses all of theirs put together by a factor of about a million. 

For his part, Woods was silent until one especially worked up cable news producer asked him a largely incoherent question about Woods' supposed ambition to attend Stanford at the age of 8. A response could not be heard over the shouts of "Thank you!" from a congressional staff eager to end the encounter.

From NBC's Huma Zaidi
The AFL-CIO, a coalition of 54 labor unions representing over 10 million members, and the AFSCME, representing over 1.4 million members, announced plans to revamp their presidential endorsement process. In a conference call with reporters this morning, AFL-CIO president John Sweeney and AFSCME president Gerald McEntee said they want their members to have more input into who the unions endorse for president. Sweeney and McEntee said members will be able to attend forums, one-on-one town hall meetings with candidates, and use the internet to learn more about potential nominees. "The breadth and depth of our efforts to engage union members and their families will be unparalleled," Sweeney said. "This will be a very bottom up process."

The groups plan on holding major candidate forums in June and August before meeting some time in the fall to decide whether or not to make an endorsement at that time. McEntee explained that they will examine the candidates' record, their position on issues, the viability of their campaign and their ability to inspire their members. "We have the best field of candidates at least that I've ever seen," McEntee said. "These candidates are diverse as they are talented." When asked why they decided to revamp their endorsement process, McEntee explained that they realized that perhaps they didn't "drill down far enough" and employ more grassroots activity in 2004.
 

From NBC's Carrie Dann
After Monday's appearance with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger was overshadowed by questions about his family life, Rudy Giuliani gave another go at pushing his national security credentials yesterday.  At a campaign stop in San Diego, Giuliani highlighted a broad approach to fighting terrorism, saying that voters are concerned about "not just the Iraq part ... but the overall thing, how we're going to deal with the war on terror."  He managed to address immigration and energy policy before reporters pressed him again to discuss his son's estrangement from his current (third) wife Judy; he responded by echoing his earlier appeals to the press, saying "the more I can ask you to give us a certain degree of privacy, it's going to be much better for everybody."

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi
While the Libby verdict shines a light on the Bush Administration's build-up to the Iraq war, its flawed intelligence, and Vice President Cheney's preoccupation with Joe Wilson, it also raises the subject of lies in politics and the people who tell them.

"Presidents" -- and, by extension, government officials -- "lie for all kinds of reasons," the historian Sean Wilentz was quoted as saying in a recent Atlantic Monthly cover story on presidents and lying.  "Richard Nixon lied because he was trying to save his presidency, which was imperiled by his misdeeds.  Franklin Delano Roosevelt misled the country over things like Lend-Lease…  Honesty doesn't necessarily make for an effective presidency…  What the public has to judge is whether [presidents] are lying for the good of the country -- or for their own good."

What's arguably unique about this Administration is that a former high-level official can be convicted of lying under oath during his tenure at the White House, and it doesn't seem to deserve further comment.  For whatever reason (insert your own views here), President Bush and Vice President Cheney are claiming the excuse of the ongoing investigation to refrain from elaborating about their reactions to the Libby verdict beyond being "disappointed" in it and "saddened" for Libby and his family.  Bush spokesperson Dana Perino told reporters yesterday, "Our principled stand on not commenting on an ongoing legal investigation is going to continue."

Yet as Sen. Hillary Clinton runs for the presidency with her husband at her side, it's worth remembering that special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald's statement yesterday -- "Any lie under oath is serious" -- could equally apply to Bill Clinton's false testimony under oath about having an affair with Monica Lewinsky, although the two cases aren't entirely analogous.  "I tried to walk a fine line between acting lawfully and testifying falsely, but I now recognize that I did not fully accomplish this goal and that certain of my responses to questions about Ms. Lewinsky were false," Clinton admitted hours before leaving office in 2001, as part of a deal with prosecutor Robert Ray.  "I hope my actions today will bring closure and finality to these matters."

And if President Bush does pardon Libby, he wouldn't be the first president to pardon a senior official who had served in his own Administration, NBC's Chris Donovan notes.  Somewhat overshadowed by the controversial Marc Rich pardon handed down by President Clinton on his last day in office in 2001 were Clinton's pardons of two former senior officials of his Administration on that same day: his first-term HUD Secretary Henry Cisneros and former Pentagon official and CIA director John Deutch.  And in Clinton's 2004 memoir, "My Life," he wrote that he "regretted" not pardoning a third official: former associate attorney general Webster Hubbell.  Who was one of two people urging him to pardon Hubbell?  His wife.

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll highlights a new concern for President Bush: As noted on CNBC this morning, the percentage of Americans who feel pessimistic about the economy has soared 15 points since January, although those who invest are more confident.  The rest of the poll testing the status of the Bush presidency, public opinion about the Iraq war, and the state of the 2008 presidential field will be released on NBC Nightly News and MSNBC.com at 6:30 pm ET.

So far, the White House is ignoring Democrats' calls for Bush to refrain from pardoning Libby.  The Wall Street Journal says some prominent conservatives are pushing for one "based on what they claim is prosecutorial excess…  Within hours of the verdict, the conservative National Review published an online editorial calling for a pardon…  Dana Perino, a White House spokeswoman, left the door open, saying 'there's a process in place for all Americans if they want to receive a pardon from a president.'  She said she wasn't characterizing Mr. Libby's prospects for clemency if he does apply."  

"Democrats moved swiftly to place the verdict as part of a wider narrative about how the administration had smeared war critics, rather than the actions of one individual," says the Financial Times.  "The trial confirmed that officials, including Richard Armitage, the former deputy secretary of state, and Karl Rove, the chief political adviser to Mr Bush, also leaked the name."  

USA Today looks at how Libby wound up being the only one defendant on trial.  

"Libby is the highest-ranking White House official to be convicted of a felony since the Iran-contra scandal nearly two decades ago…  Fitzgerald said he does not expect to bring any more charges unless new information comes to light." 

A Washington Post analysis says Fitzgerald's "search for the truth about Cheney was a key ambition in his probe and that his inability to get it was a key provocation for Libby's indictment.  Although Cheney was the target, Fitzgerald's investigation could not reach him because of Libby's duplicity." 

The New York Times looks at how the verdict impacts Cheney.  "The political question was whether Mr. Libby … was 'the fall guy' for his boss, in the words of Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York.  Though the defense introduced a note from Mr. Cheney worrying that Mr. Libby was being sacrificed to protect other White House officials, some say the vice president bears responsibility for the fate of his former aide." 

"Even an acquittal would have left deep scars on the George W. Bush presidency because of the immense publicity surrounding the case and its political fallout," The Politico writes.  "But the guilty verdicts… mean that the case remains an ugly and enduring part of the politics of President Bush's last two years in office," and Democrats will work hard to ensure that it comes up during the presidential campaign.  

"…[B]eyond any impact on Mr. Libby, the verdict represents another painful blow to a lame-duck White House struggling to marshal public support for an Iraq policy under assault from all angles." 

"Kenneth M. Duberstein, a former chief of staff to President Ronald Reagan in his second term, said: 'This is a day consumed by nine G.I.'s killed in Iraq, 100 Iraqis dying, the continuing Walter Reed investigation into the mistreatment of our returning heroes, and the Libby verdict...  No matter how you spin it, this was a bad, bad, bad news day for this White House.'" 

The Washington Post says of the Libby verdict, the Walter Reed situation, and the Democratic probe of the firing of several US attorneys that "the confluence of events has revived a pattern largely missing through the six years of Bush's presidency, in which high-level officials accused of wrongdoing are grilled, fired and sometimes even jailed.  For an administration that has been unusually opaque and mostly insulated from aggressive congressional oversight and prosecutorial investigation, it may seem like a gut-churning harbinger." 

USA Today looks at how "Democrats are using the uproar over [Walter Reed] as their latest cudgel to batter President Bush for his Iraq war policies as the administration shows signs it fears political damage from the revelations," and how "the Bush administration has moved quickly to try to contain the political damage."  The story also notes, "Focusing the Iraq debate on the treatment of troops could help protect Democrats from GOP charges that proposals by some Democratic lawmakers to cut money for the war would hurt troops in the war zone," and also provides Democrats with "a distraction -- if only for now -- from the party's internal disagreements over how and when to force the president's hand." 

The New York Times covers Bush's appointment of former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole (R) and former HHS Secretary Donna Shalala (D) to head a bipartisan commission investigating the poor conditions at Walter Reed, as well as Veterans Affairs Secretary Jim Nicholson to lead a group of seven Cabinet members to focus on the needs of veterans coming back from Iraq.  "The steps come as an increasingly restive Congress seizes on the recent accounts of problems encountered by wounded soldiers.  A second day of Congressional hearings was held Tuesday on the troubles at Walter Reed, and lawmakers promised more to come."    

"House Democratic leaders, seeking a compromise with several dozen anti-war lawmakers in their own caucus, are considering a vote on a timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq before taking up $98 billion in new military spending," The Politico reports.  "In return for the vote, the leaders want the 50 to 75 anti-war Democrats to support the wartime funding, if their proposal fails."  A vote on a timetable "would be the first such vote in either the House or the Senate since the Democrats took control of Congress in January." 

"The White House is adopting such a defensive stance on the Iraq-war-funding bill that it risks further alienating the Democrats who will write the measure," says the Wall Street Journal.  "President Bush hosted a Republicans-only strategy dinner in the White House family quarters last week on the war appropriations.  At the same time, the administration has resisted giving Democratic staff even technical advice on funding that the new majority wants to add for veterans' health programs." 

"Bush yesterday touted positive early results of his troop 'surge' in Iraq and urged patience with the plan, though the administration says privately it knows it has only a short time to produce substantive results," says the Washington Times.  His address to the American Legion drew "a standing ovation came when the president said Congress should not restrict or cut off funding for the war." 

The Hill reports that seven attorneys general, "including the host of a pivotal presidential primary, will announce their support for [McCain] today, adding to the number of state leaders endorsing him over former district attorney Rudy Giuliani and the other Republican hopefuls in the race…  Three of the attorneys general endorsing McCain said the Arizona lawmaker is winning over the majority of Republican officials and former Bush campaign supporters in their home states.  Five of the states represented are expected to hold early primaries next year."  

Roll Call looks at the key, largely behind-the-scenes role being played by Sen. Trent Lott in his colleague McCain's presidential bid: "Lott has spent months helping court Congressional and build national support for McCain's 2008 White House bid.  He has advised McCain, spoken on his behalf and helped him set his campaign priorities." 

The AP reports that Southern Baptist leader Richard Land said "evangelicals might tolerate a divorced presidential candidate, but they have deep doubts about Rudy Giuliani - whose [second] divorce was 'on steroids'… 'To publicly humiliate your wife in that way, and your children ... that's rough,' he said." 

Also, the New York Daily News says Giuliani announced yesterday that he would stump in Iowa next month.  "Some had wondered if the pro-choice, pro-gay rights, pro-gun control Giuliani would skip the state's first-in-the-nation caucus, which is typically dominated by conservative Republicans.  But aides to the former mayor said yesterday that while he is still weighing how much time to spend in Iowa - as opposed to California, Florida and other bigger states now planning early primaries - he planned to compete there." 

This past weekend's events prompted us to note on Monday that the formerly "invisible primary" for the support of key constituency groups such as CPAC on the Republican side and African-Americans on the Democratic side is now rather visible.  Today's events only emphasize that even more -- and point to the fact that Democrats have many more key constituencies to court than do Republicans, for whom social conservatives are far and away the most vocal group they need to cater to. 

This morning, the AFL-CIO will hold a conference call with reporters to unveil its new endorsement process, which it says will start earlier than in the past and will take place at a higher level (holding discussions with the candidates, town hall meetings, and online activities).  Back in 2004, the labor federation didn't endorse anyone until Sen. John Kerry had won most of the early nominating contests, due to unions' split in support of the leading Democratic candidates. 

And tonight, Democratic presidential contenders Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd and John Edwards are all scheduled to appear at a fundraiser in Washington for the South Carolina Democratic Party.  The party is charged with paying for its own presidential primary, which is currently scheduled for January 29, 2008 and is the first nominating contest on the calendar to feature a sizeable African-American electorate.  NBC is broadcasting a South Carolina Democratic presidential primary debate in Orangeburg, SC on April 26.

The New York Times front-pages that Obama, after easing into the Senate, bought more than $50,000 worth of stock in two companies that included some of his biggest political donors.  One of those companies was a biotech firm developing a drug to combat the avian flu, an issue on which Obama made a legislative priority.  "A spokesman for Mr. Obama … said yesterday that the senator did not know that he had invested in either company until fall 2005, when he learned of it and decided to sell the stocks.  He sold them at a net loss of $13,000."  More: "There is no evidence that any of his actions ended up benefiting either company during the roughly eight months that he owned the stocks." 

The Washington Times looks at Obama's ability "to call himself the first to oppose the war, with little retort from his rivals."  

John Edwards claims to have won over 100 former Tom Vilsack supporters, the Des Moines Register writes.  Edwards said he has spent hours on the phone trying to win over backers.  "Many of Vilsack's top supporters, however, have resisted the pressure to commit to another candidate quickly."

The Manchester Union Leader says New Hampshire House Majority Leader Mary Jane Wallner endorsed Hillary Clinton yesterday.  "The Wallner endorsement came as the Clinton campaign yesterday rolled out a national 'Women for Hillary' program."

When she appears at the South Carolina Democratic fundraiser tonight, Clinton might happen to mention the voting reform bill she's introducing today "to ensure that every American is able to vote and every vote is counted," per the release from her office.

Democrats' probe of the firing of several US attorneys has ensnared an aide in a third GOP member's office, that of Rep. Doc Hastings of Washington state. 

The testimonies of the half-dozen fired prosecutors yesterday "ratcheted up the controversy over the Bush administration's motives in replacing them.  Two Democratic-controlled congressional committees are investigating whether any lawmakers violated ethics rules in pushing for their removal.  In a rare spectacle, the ousted prosecutors appeared at a pair of hearings … sharing their disbelief and frustration over how they were abruptly terminated by Justice Department officials.  The prosecutors said they could see no clear reason why they were let go other than political motives." 

The Los Angeles Times covers the likelihood that the just-passed Senate bill containing a union-backed provision that would grant airport screeners collective bargaining rights won't have enough support to override a Bush veto. 

The Boston Globe looks at the Democrats' plan to raise taxes on the wealthy, largely by limiting the Alternative Minimum Tax, which was created to "prevent rich taxpayers from ducking taxes via deductions but is ensnaring millions of middle-income payers because it was never adjusted for inflation."  But such a "move by Democrats to raise taxes on the wealthy would open Democrats up to political attacks."

From NBC's Mark Murray
Vice President Cheney just released the following statement on Libby's conviction:

"I am very disappointed with the verdict. I am saddened for Scooter and his family. As I have said before, Scooter has served our nation tirelessly and with great distinction through many years of public service."

"Since his legal team has announced that he is seeking a new trial and, if necessary, pursuing an appeal, I plan to have no further comment on the merits of this matter until these proceedings are concluded."

From NBC's Tammy Kupperman
White House spokeswoman Dana Perino says at the time the Libby verdict came out, President Bush was in the Oval Office with chief of staff Josh Bolten and adviser Dan Bartlett and saw it read on television.

Perino provided Bush's reaction. "He said that he respected the jury's verdict, that he was saddened for Scooter Libby and his family." Perino added that because it is still an ongoing criminal proceeding (given the defense team's announcement it will ask for a new trial and/or appeal), "our principled stand on not commenting on an ongoing legal investigation is going to continue," she said.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Vice President Cheney's former chief of staff, has been found guilty on four of the five perjury and obstruction charges against him.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
The court has been alerted that the panel of jurors has reached a verdict in the perjury and obstruction trial of Scooter Libby.

All those involved will return to the court in approximately 15 minutes. It's expected that Judge Reggie Walton will do the actual reading of the verdict.

 

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi.
President Bush might be a lame duck with a job approval rating hovering just above 30% and not a lot of leverage on Democrat-dominated Capitol Hill, but his Administration continues to take maximum advantage of the tools available to them to set policy, including executive orders and, it turns out, the ability to install US attorneys.  Today, a handful of recently fired federal prosecutors are expected to appear before the House and Senate judiciary panels and affirm Democrats' claims that their terminations were politically motivated. 

As has been reported over the past few weeks, these prosecutors were fired late last year with the approval of the White House after Justice Department officials "identified the prosecutors they believed were not doing enough to carry out President Bush's policies on immigration, firearms, and other issues," per the Washington Post from Sunday.  Most of the prosecutors say they were given no reason for the dismissal, and most were presiding over public corruption investigations at the time they were released.  The Justice Department has rejected suggestions that the probes played a role in their dismissals.

NBC's Pete Williams calls this "an ancient problem" between Justice and the prosecutors, a version of a common problem between any headquarters and its field offices.  These US attorneys didn't hew to the script and ultimately lost their jobs for it.

But their appearances before the House and Senate committees will give Democratic lawmakers a rare opportunity to rail against an Administration they've long viewed as seeking to interfere with the pursuit of justice whenever that pursuit threatens its own aims.  As NBC's Mike Viqueira points out, the Justice Department is a favorite boogeyman for Democratic activists, being an arbiter of voting rights.  Many Democrats also suspect that the firings were motivated by the Administration's desire to get some of their favorite people valuable face time during the waning days of the Bush presidency, Viq adds. 

In a statement released last night, six of the former prosecutors took a veiled shot at Justice: "Every United States Attorney knows that he or she is a political appointee, but also recognizes the importance of supporting and defending the Constitution in a fair and impartial manner...  When we had new ideas or differing opinions, we assumed that such thoughts would always be welcomed by the Department and could be freely and openly debated within the halls of that great institution."  Although they have been subpoenaed on the House side, their Senate-side appearances today seem at least somewhat voluntary, NBC's Ken Strickland reports, noting that the House beat the Senate to the punch in summoning these guys to testify. 

Another tool available to Bush is the veto, and although he has yet to exercise more than once, he's now threatening to use it on two different bills making their way through Congress: the homeland security bill in the Senate and the bill just passed by the House which would facilitate union organizing.  Coincidentally or not, both bills would benefit organized labor.

Bush's threat to veto the Senate homeland security bill hinges upon whether a union-backed provision that would grant airport screeners collective bargaining rights is removed from the measure.  Strickland reports that the bill, which has bipartisan support, would implement many of September 11 commission's recommendations.  Today, the Senate will vote on a proposed amendment that removes the bargaining language, and on a proposed compromise alternative.  At this point, Strickland says, the battle is generally taking place along party lines, leaving the outcome too close to call.  While there may not be enough Republican opposition to kill the provision, enough have publicly agreed to help sustain a veto, if it reaches that point.

The situation recalls the 2002 fight over the creation of the Department of Homeland Security.  Democrats, who at that point narrowly controlled the Senate, initially proposed creating the department after September 11.  The White House balked, but then offered its own proposal establishing the department -- yet without collective bargaining rights for employees.  Democrats objected, and Republicans used those objections during the 2002 midterm elections to charge Democrats with obstructing important national security legislation.

 

In his address to the American Legion in Washington today, President Bush will likely try again to get out in front of the growing scandal at Walter Reed, which Democratic lawmakers are pouncing on as a sign of GOP administrative failures, and also on the US military casualties in Iraq from the past day, the highest total in a month.  The outcry over the living standards at Walter Reed "has led a White House known for defending its embattled leaders to fire the Army secretary, relieve a two-star general of his command, and dispatch Vice President Cheney to soothe the angry feelings by telling the Veterans of Foreign Wars: 'There will be no excuses, only action.'"

Meanwhile, House Democrats are having a tough time building a consensus on how to handle the $100 billion supplemental, Viq reports, and the House Appropriations Committee mark-up of the bill remains unscheduled.  The Politico goes a step further, saying that Speaker Nancy Pelosi "is facing a full-blown revolt from liberal House Democrats."  Efforts to assuage conservative Democrats have made liberals unhappy.  "The House Democratic Caucus will met at 12 p.m. on Tuesday, and Iraq will be at the top of the agenda." 

"The legislative jujitsu in the backrooms of Capitol Hill underscores the difficulties the Democrats face in confronting the issue that helped them regain control of Congress -- Iraq," per the Washington Post.  House Democrats' "new plan would demand that Bush certify that combat troops meet the military's own standards of readiness, which are routinely ignored.  The president could then waive such certifications if doing so is in 'the national interest.'  Democrats hope the waiver and benchmark proposals... will keep the policymaking responsibilities on Bush." 

The AP reports that the White House "is ready to ask Congress for more money for President Bush's plan to send 21,500 more combat troops into Iraq…  Though the changes may be relatively modest, they nonetheless are embarrassing to the White House and the Pentagon, which earlier dismissed criticism from lawmakers that the original $5.6billion estimate for the troop buildup was too low." 

A new Gallup poll for USA Today shows that "28% say the United States will probably or definitely win the war,... the lowest since the question was first asked in September 2005.  The share of people who now call the war a mistake is 59%... the highest level in the 58 times the question has been asked since the war began."  More: "Six in 10 people said they want Congress to set a timetable to withdraw all U.S. troops by the end of 2008.  Three-quarters said Congress should require that U.S. troops come home if Iraqi leaders don't keep pledges to reduce violence, and that U.S. troops have at least a year's stay in the USA between deployments to Iraq." 

Yet: "six in 10 people said they don't want Congress to deny funding for additional troops to be sent to Iraq.  A slim majority, 52%, said they don't want lawmakers to revoke the authority they gave Bush in 2002 to use military force in Iraq." 

Democratic Sen. Jim Webb "yesterday introduced legislation to force President Bush to seek congressional authorization before using force against Iran. Democratic leaders, who indicated general support for the Virginia Democrat's plan last week, are still deciding whether they will attach it to an upcoming spending bill," the Washington Times reports. 

 

Front and center in the US attorneys controversy is the former prosecutor from New Mexico, David Iglesias, "who has told various media outlets that two New Mexico lawmakers contacted him in mid-October 2006 to inquire about the pace of an ongoing corruption probe of local Democrats," as Roll Call notes.  "Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) already has admitted to, and apologized for, making a phone call to Iglesias in mid-October.  But Domenici denied doing anything improper...   Various media reports have singled out Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M.) as the other lawmaker."  Their alleged involvement could spark "the first major ethics probes of the 110th Congress," and could endanger their re-election prospects in 2008.

Wilson yesterday also "denied allegations from [Iglesias] that she pressured him to speed up a political corruption investigation involving Democrats in the waning days of her tight election campaign last fall." 

Yesterday, the Justice Department official "who called to fire several U.S. attorneys late last year" announced his resignation. 

More drip-drip: The former federal prosecutor in Maryland, Thomas M. DiBiagio, tells the New York Times that he was forced out of his post in 2005 due to his corruption investigation involving associates of former Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R). 

Attorney General Alberto Gonzales "defended the action as appropriate" in a Wall Street Journal interview, "but said the Justice Department handled the situation poorly...  Internal Justice Department documents, reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, show evaluations offering positive reviews for all the prosecutors' work as recently as last March.  Mr. Gonzales said the written reviews were among several factors the department used to evaluate prosecutors."

Previewing his agenda for his upcoming seven-day, five-nation swing through Latin America, Bush yesterday "outlined past efforts to help the region while offering new plans for health care, education and business development," says USA Today.  Some of Bush's "proposals seem aimed at countering the appeal of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, said Peter Hakim, president of the Inter-American Dialogue.  Chávez has blamed U.S.-style economic policies for the persistence of poverty." 

The Washington Post: "As he prepares to embark on a six-day trip to Latin America this week, the president is launching a new campaign to compete with Chavez for the region's hearts and minds, employing language mirroring the Venezuelan leader's leftist populism but rooted in traditional American conservatism." 

More cardiovascular issues for Vice President Cheney. 

HarperCollins will announce today that it's publishing Jenna Bush's Ana's Story: A Journey of Hope this fall.  The book is about "a 17-year-old single mother in Panama who is living with HIV," and "will end with a 'call to action,'" Bush tells USA Today.  "It will be illustrated with photographs by Mia Baxter, a former classmate of Bush's at the University of Texas."  Bush "will donate her earnings to UNICEF.  She says she 'very, very modestly' hopes her book will have some of the influence of two books about girls caught up in the Holocaust: Lois Lowry's novel Number the Stars and Anne Frank's The Diary of Anne Frank." 

 

Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani has "sold his boutique investment bank, Giuliani Capital Partners, addressing concerns about potential conflicts of interest and adding to his warchest of campaign financing."  The Financial Times reports that per analysts, "Giuliani Capital Advisors could be worth as much as $100m.  It represents a large chunk of Mr Giuliani's business interests."  Today, Giuliani has "a fundraiser in Palo Alto hosted by Floyd Kvamme, a leading technology veteran from Silicon Valley who served on the National Finance Committee for [President Bush].  Although he is a social conservative, Mr Kvamme is willing to overlook Mr Giuliani's liberal positions." 

Giuliani has plenty of personal baggage to tow on the campaign trail, and his son added to that load over the weekend when he told ABC that he "got my values from my mother," whom Giuliani divorced in 2002 due to his very public affair with current wife Judith Nathan.  Responding to questions about his son's comments yesterday, Giuliani admitted that his "blended  family" could cause problems, but appealed for relief from the media spotlight, NBC's Carrie Dann reports.  "The more privacy I can have for my family, the better we're going to be able to deal with all these difficulties," he told reporters in Los Angeles.  He also was careful to absolve his current wife of blame for the strained relationship with his son: "She's done everything she can.  The responsibility is mine."

Per the New York Daily News, Giuliani "had gone to California to play to his strength - talking about security.  Instead [he] was put in the unenviable position of talking about one of his perceived weaknesses - his private life."  

The Boston Globe's Canellos takes a stab at the Romney campaign's strategy to stir up hard feelings towards countries like France who have questioned the war in Iraq even though their beliefs are in line with many Americans'.  "It's similar to Romney's decision last year to refuse State Police protection for Iran's moderate former president, who was speaking at Harvard, as a protest against Iran's current hard-line president.  The common thread is that Romney seems to believe that presidential voters will respond only to the gesture, not the facts behind it," Canellos writes.  "It's not the French to whom Romney is condescending; he seems to think GOP primary voters have brie for brains." 

Sen. John McCain is in DC today and addresses two legislative conferences.  In the Union Leader, McCain writes that "Washington has failed miserably" in enacting immigration reform and lays out his proposal.