From NBC's Bob Windrem
In what could hardly be good news for Rudy Guiliani's presidential hopes, his former police commissioner Bernard Kerik appears headed for an indictment, Jonathan Dienst of WNBC reports. Kerik has turned down a guilty plea that would have included federal jail time, Dienst says. The next step is up to federal prosecutors; Kerik has already pleaded guilty to state charges.

Here's part of Dienst's report: "News Channel 4 has learned former NYPD commissioner Bernard Kerik has rejected a plea deal offered by federal prosecutors that would have required Kerik to serve time in prison. Federal prosecutors offered Kerik a deal where he would plead guilty to tax fraud and illegal eavesdropping conspiracy charges, sources familiar with the negotiations say.

"In exchange for his guilty plea, investigators were willing to end the federal criminal probe into Kerik's alleged wrongdoing, which includes allegations of mortgage fraud, tax fraud, conspiracy to eavesdrop, and making false statements on his application to become U.S. Homeland Security Secretary. 'We rejected the plea deal because Mr. Kerik paid his taxes and did nothing wrong,' said Kerik's attorney, Ken Breen. A spokesman for U.S. attorney Michael Garcia declined to comment on the investigation as did officials with the FBI, IRS, City Department of Investigation. and Westchester County District Attorney."

From NBC's Andrew Merten
Sen. Hillary Clinton proved to be the crowd favorite so far at the International Association of Fire Fighters presidential forum -- at least by the number of standing ovations. She received three of them, while those speaking before her (John Edwards, Jim Gilmore, Barack Obama, and Duncan Hunter) received none. Her calls for increased equipment and health-care funding for first responders were popular with the crowd, and she echoed Edward's earlier support for unions, saying: "The days of George Bush thinking that the union bug is something he has to squash are over."

Meanwhile, Obama -- speaking before Clinton -- mentioned his short experience in national politics by repeating his now-familiar line: "I've been in Washington long enough to know that Washington needs to change." He related the need for increased funding for firefighters' health-care and equipment to the recent Walter Reed scandal, saying that troops returning from the frontline in Iraq should not be faced with a "new frontline of red tape and bureaucracy" at home.   

From NBC's Mark Murray
Three stories are dominating today's political news: the continued fallout over the US attorneys firing, the Iraq vote in the Senate, and the firefighters' presidential forum in DC.

With the US attorneys controversy enjoying another day of full-blown news coverage, anyone else having flashbacks to 2005, when Katrina and Harriet Miers' failed Supreme Court nomination dominated the news? Per the Washington Post and Los Angeles Times, Attorney General Alberto Gonzales' said yesterday that "mistakes were made," but he refused to resign.

New York Times adds: "[T]wo Republicans, who spoke anonymously so they could share private conversations with senior White House officials, said top aides to Mr. Bush, including Fred F. Fielding, the new White House counsel, were concerned that the controversy had so damaged Mr. Gonzales's credibility that he would be unable to advance the White House agenda on national security matters, including terrorism prosecutions."

The Washington Post's Dana Milbank writes that at his press conference yesterday, Gonzales "had the look of a hunted man in his appearance at the Justice Department. He wiggled his toes inside his shoes and shifted his feet. He spoke too loudly into the microphone. He arrived 18 minutes late, gave well-rehearsed answers and appeared intent on getting out as fast as he could."

NBC's Ken Strickland reports that the Senate today is poised to start debating a resolution that calls for the withdrawal of all US troops from Iraq by March 31, 2008. But where the debate goes beyond just floor speeches is unclear at this point. Yesterday, Senate GOP leaders said they'll vote with Democrats to allow the debate to begin, but they refused to commit to anything beyond that. Once again, the two sides have yet to reach an agreement on the terms of the debate: how long for debate, how many resolutions, etc. 

However the impasse is resolved, Strickland notes, it's still a steep uphill fight to pass the measure. Anything controversial in the Senate requires 60 votes to break a filibuster and pass.  And the Democrats' newest resolution doesn't have it -- in fact, it may not even have 50.

The Washington Post: "Whatever peril the resolution carries for Democrats, the debate will provide a public test of Republican unity. The lack of debate inside the Republican Party reflects not just loyalty to the president but also a belief that Bush's policies still offer a chance for success in Iraq, GOP officials said."

 

Presidential candidates from both political parties will speak at the International Association of Fire Fighters' presidential forum today. Each candidate has 30 minutes to speak, and none of them will share the stage. Beginning at 9:00 am ET and ending around 3:30 pm ET, the speaking order is: John Edwards, Jim Gilmore, Barack Obama, Duncan Hunter, Hillary Clinton, Sam Brownback, Chuck Hagel (despite his non-announcement on Monday), Chris Dodd, Bill Richardson, John McCain (before he heads off to Iowa), and Joe Biden. While most organized labor groups backed either Gephardt or Dean in 2003-4, the IAFF endorsed John Kerry, who went on to win the Democratic nomination.

Rudy Giuliani, however, will be a notable absence at today's forum. As we mentioned last week, the IAFF wrote in a recent letter that Giuliani would not be invited. In the letter, they blasted Giuliani for his actions after September 11, especially his decision to scale back efforts to recover bodies from Ground Zero. "His actions post 9/11 rise to such an offensive and personal attack on our brother and sisterhood -- and directly on our union -- that the IAFF does not feel Rudy Giuliani deserves an audience of IAFF leaders and members at our own Presidential Forum," they wrote. Ultimately, that letter was never sent and the IAFF changed their minds and invited Giuliani anyway. After initially accepting the invite, Giuliani pulled out earlier this week.

The New York Times: "Since the Sept. 11 attacks, when he was mayor of New York City, Mr. Giuliani has been linked in the public mind to firefighters and police officers… Yet the firefighters and police officers who know Mr. Giuliani best, those in New York City, have mixed views of him, ranging from admiration to outright hostility."

Hillary Clinton, along with influential House chairman John Dingell, offered legislation yesterday to expand the Children's Health Insurance Program, the New York Times says. "The bill will be the basis for House efforts to reshape the program, which expires Sept. 30, and will be a building block of Mrs. Clinton's presidential campaign platform… Neither Mr. Dingell … nor Mrs. Clinton … said how they would pay for the proposal, which would increase federal spending over the next five years by at least $50 billion."

And The Politico says Obama's recent statement that "nobody is suffering more than the Palestinian people" has angered some Jewish Democrats.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
The White House officials today released their side of the story in the controversy over the fired US attorneys:
WHAT BUSH KNEW
"The president was generally aware of the complaints." In October 2006, Bush "may have mentioned this to the attorney general during a discussion of other matters." While the complaints were appropriately passed along to White House counsel Harriet Miers and the Justice Department, the counsel's office and the president did not direct Justice to take any specific action concerning individual attorneys.

MIERS' IDEA
In early 2005, Miers discussed with Justice chief of staff Kyle Sampson her suggestion -- which was described as "Let's take a look at replacing all the US attorneys." The White House says that Sampson told Miers "he did not think that was a good idea," in part because many had not served their full four-year term. And officials point out that Senate confirmations had not all happened at the same time. US attorneys serve one four-year term.

WHITE HOUSE INVOLVEMENT
In 2005 and 2006 the White House counsel's office and the Justice Department decided there should be "limited changes in the ranks of US attorneys." Justice "generated a preliminary list" based on "performance and managerial issues."

KARL ROVE'S INVOLEMENT
According to White House officials, Karl Rove "remembers" Harriet Miers "mentioning her idea to him." Officials say that Rove says he told Miers it "that he thought it would be unwise."

THE LIST
The final list from Justice on the US attorneys to be replaced was received in late 2006 -- "at no time were any names added or subtracted by the White House."

SUMMARY COMMENT:
"We continue to believe the decision to remove and replace US attorneys who serve at the pleasure of the president was appropriate and entirely within our discretion."

From NBC's Ken Strickland and Mark Murray
Senate Democrats are asking the age-old Washington question amid the controversy over the firings of several US attorneys: What did the president know and when did he know it? At a news conference earlier today, Sen. Chuck Schumer accused AG Alberto Gonzales of "carrying out the political wishes of the president in at least some of these firings." Sen. Dianne Feinstein joined Schumer in calling for subpoenas for Karl Rove, Harriet Miers, and Gonzales' chief of staff Kyle Sampson (who resigned yesterday.)  Feinstein added that she was "incensed" by the matter because when she first called Gonzales to complain about the firings he told her she "didn't have her facts right. That none of this was correct."

As usual, Schumer provided some of the best sound bites. He said:
-- that Sampson's resignation "does not take heat off the Attorney General. In fact, it raises the temperature. Kyle Sampson will not become the next Scooter Libby, the next fall guy."
-- "The cloud over the Justice Department is getting darker and darker and only the president can dispel it."
-- "When someone's indicted and they claim political interference, it's going to have new truth even if that person was justifiably indicted."
-- "It's now increasing clear that the only bad actors in this case were top officials in the White House and the Justice Department, not, not the US attorneys."

Two of the Democratic presidential front-runners also weighed in. Hillary Clinton released a statement saying, "It is imperative that the president act swiftly to explain what role the White House played in this situation, hold those who acted inappropriately accountable, and take responsibility." Barack Obama said in his statement: "I opposed Mr. Gonzalez's (sic) nomination, in part, because he had shown in his role as White House Counsel a penchant for subverting justice to serve the President's political goals, and I feared that in an Attorney General. Sadly, the latest revelations underscore my concern."

 

From NBC's Mark Murray
Today's top news is that the White House suggested two years ago that the Justice Department dismiss all 93 of the nation's US attorneys, which led to the controversial firing of eight of them. The Washington Post: "The dismissals took place after President Bush told Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales in October that he had received complaints that some prosecutors had not energetically pursued voter-fraud investigations, according to a White House spokeswoman."

The New York Times: "The role of the president and his advisers in the prosecutor shakeup is likely to intensify calls by Congress for an investigation. It is the worst crisis of Mr. Gonzales's tenure and provoked charges that the dismissals were a political purge threatening the historical independence of the Justice Department."

Gonzales' chief of staff, Kyle Sampson, has resigned from the Justice Department due to the controversy, the Los Angeles Times reports.

And Congress is now demanding that Karl Rove, who allegedly spoke about the performance of the US attorney in New Mexico, testify before Congress about all of this.

In other news, there are two new polls out today. A New York Times/CBS poll finds a despondent GOP, with 40% of Republicans believing that the Democrats will win the White House and nearly 6 in 10 of them wanting more presidential choices. Overall, Bush' job approval rating is at 34% (up five points since last month); just 34% have a favorable view of the GOP versus 47% who have a favorable view of the Democratic Party; and Democrats hold a 20-point lead in a generic presidential election.

A new Bloomberg survey, meanwhile, has Bush's approval rating at 38%, 7 in 10 saying the country is on the wrong track, and Americans -- by more than a 2-to-1 ratio -- disapproving of his Iraq policy.

In the presidential race, Democratic presidential candidates Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, and Hillary Clinton all address the National League of Cities conference taking place in DC this morning.

Conservatives have been lashing out at the GOP front-runners for a host of reasons (their divorces, stands on social issues, etc.). Now, Pat Toomey of the conservative Club for Growth criticizes McCain for not supporting Bush's tax cuts of 2001 and 2003. "We believe that classical liberal, limited-government and free-enterprise policies best enable strong economic growth. Sen. McCain's record in this regard could be a lot better."

The Washington Post's Milbank writes about Sen. Chuck Hagel's non-announcement yesterday, in which he said he will make a decision about his political future at a later date. "That was the announcement? The cable networks quickly broke away. The reporters in Omaha were feeling had." 
 
The New York Times on Hagel: "But even as he walked away from the microphone, three possibilities remained: running for president at the 11th hour, seeking re-election to a third term in the Senate or retiring from politics."

In Guatemala yesterday, Bush said "he wants the House and Senate to pass immigration bills by August," the Washington Times says. "He said his plan is to find a bill 'most Republicans are comfortable with' in the Senate, then begin working with Democrats in the Senate, before turning to the House."

The Wall Street Journal adds: "But while many analysts say the 2006 election vindicated his support for immigrant-friendly policies, his waning political strength will make it difficult to muster the Republican votes needed for Congress to pass them into law."

From NBC's Mark Murray
Former Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R), who himself decided not to run for president in 2008, has just released an email from his political action committee that urges fellow Tennessean Fred Thompson (R) to make a White House bid. "I believe Fred Thompson should run for president," Frist says.

"I've not talked with Fred personally about a potential run, so I am basing my thoughts simply on knowing him well, having worked with him in policy and politics everyday for 8 years, and knowing the people across America want a genuine leader who represents them."

From NBC's Ken Strickland
After being thwarted twice by Republicans last month, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will try again this week to get a vote on a controversial Iraq resolution. Unlike previous offerings, this measure would have a binding component calling for some troop withdrawal within four months. But Republicans may choose to block the vote again; a decision isn't expected until Tuesday after their weekly caucus luncheon. In a effort to appease Republicans and more forward, Reid says he'd allow votes on GOP-backed resolutions as well. Unless an agreement is reached soon, it will come to a head on Wednesday with a procedural vote on whether to move to Reid's bill. Sixty votes are required, and without any Republican support for Reid's measure thus far, Democrats don't have the votes.

Also this week, the Senate will finish up a homeland security bill which implements many of the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission. Its passage has drawn a Bush veto threat because of provisions in the House and Senate versions allowing collective bargaining rights for airport screeners. It will be a few weeks before the bill reaches the president's desk, however.

And on Thursday, the Senate Armed Services Committee will receive a closed Iraq briefing from Defense Secretary Roberts Gates and Joint Chiefs Chairman Peter Pace. Also on Thursday, Zalmay Khalilzad appears before Foreign Relations for his confirmation hearing to become UN ambassador. He currently serves as the US ambassador to Iraq.

From NBC's Mark Murray
In the same interview last weekend in which he admitted to thinking about a possible White House bid, former Sen. Fred Thompson (R) also said he's pro-life and would like to see Roe v. Wade overturned. In past interviews and news clippings, however, Thompson was identified as being pro-choice and against making early-term abortions a crime -- although he did favor strict limits on abortion (like parental notification, being against partial-birth abortion, and being opposed to the federal funding of abortions).

Pro-life Thompson
WALLACE: … So let's do a lightning round -- quick questions, quick answers, a variety of issues -- to see where Fred Thompson stands.
THOMPSON: Um hmm.
WALLACE: Abortion.
THOMPSON: Pro-life.
WALLACE: Would you like to overturn Roe...
THOMPSON: You said lightning round, now. If you want...
WALLACE: Well, let's go.
THOMPSON: ... more, give me another question. I'll work through it.
WALLACE: Do you want to overturn Roe vs. Wade?
THOMPSON: I think Roe vs. Wade was bad law and bad medical science. And the way to address that is through good judges. I don't think the court ought to wake up one day and make new social policy for the country. It's contrary to what it's been the past 200 years. (Fox News Sunday, 3/11/07)

Pro-choice Thompson?
Both [Thompson and Houston Gordon] also are basically pro-choice on abortion although Thompson has voted to bar federal funding of abortions. Both candidates said they would have voted to override Clinton's veto of a bill this year that would have banned a controversial partial-birth abortion procedure. (Memphis Commercial Appeal, 11/4/96)

U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson says he seldom hears about abortion in campaign travels throughout Tennessee and hopes the issue is downplayed at the Republican National Convention. The Tennessee Republican, a pro-choice defender in a party with an anti-abortion tilt, is preparing for next week's convention in San Diego. He said the party must avoid distracting issues and focus on electing Bob Dole as president. "We need to concentrate on what brings us together and not what divides us," Thompson said in an interview with The Tennessean published Tuesday. Thompson said he opposes making early-term abortions a crime, as some Republicans would like to do with a constitutional amendment. "But I don't think you should bolt on one issue. I'm still not convinced platforms are a good idea. We know what we believe in and I don't think we need to write it all down in a document," Thompson said. (AP, 8/6/96)

On abortion, both Thompson and Cooper are pro-choice. But Thompson favors parental notification, Cooper voted against it. (National Review, 6/27/94)

Though Thompson says he's pro-choice, his voting record on abortion issues (which includes opposing fellow Tennessean Henry Foster's nomination for surgeon general) has earned him high marks from both the Christian Coalition and the National Right to Life Committee. He has also won the backing of the tobacco industry and the NRA. (Washington Monthly, 12/1/96)

From NBC's Carrie Dann
At a press conference in Washington this morning to announce endorsements from Sen. David Vitter (R) and GOP lawyer Ted Olson, Rudy Giuliani stressed his national security and fiscal responsibility credentials -- as part of his effort to fend off conservative anxiety about his comparatively liberal views on social issues. Despite disagreeing with Giuliani on these social issues, Vitter said at the event, "It's very clear to me that he's not running for president to advance any liberal social agenda." 

When questioned about when he'd directly address the social stances that are prompting such hand-wringing among many Republicans, Giuliani chuckled, "I've been doing it for months..."  He acknowledged that "there are going to be disagreements within the party," but insisted that his Republican credentials are anchored in the two issues that most concern Americans: fiscal discipline and terrorism. (He did, however, echo a familiar conservative mantra by promising to "appoint judges that interpret the Constitution rather than try to execute their own social policy or social agenda.")

Reporters eagerly tried to use Giuliani's response as a springboard to coax a stronger statement on abortion, but the former mayor insisted, "I have no idea what I would veto or not veto. I don't think anybody can announce that until they see a piece of legislation."

From NBC's Mark Murray
In front of numerous reporters, photographers, and TV cameras all eager to hear some big news like he's running for president, Sen. Hagel announced that -- drum roll, please -- he hasn't made up his mind. Hagel simply said that he'll make a decision about a White House bid "later this year," adding that he will still have political options at this later date.

In the meantime, Hagel said he'll participate at presidential candidate events and forums, raise money for his political action committee (to help GOP candidates), and raise money for his Senate re-election committee (his term is up next year).

From NBC's Mark Murray
At the same time as most Americans begin filling out their NCAA tournament brackets, the political world this morning is focused on whether we'll add another name to the presidential pool. Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., is set to make a "major announcement" at 11:00 am ET. That's all we know. He could say he's running for president. Or that he's running for re-election (his term is up next year). Or that he's retiring from the Senate. Heck, he could say he's going to be a contestant in "Dancing With the Stars."

If he does run for president -- as a Republican -- there does appear to be an opening. The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds that only 56% of Republicans say they are satisfied with their presidential field; by comparison, 77% of Democrats say they are satisfied with their choices. And if he gets in, he'd be first Iraq war critic among the major GOP contenders.

But Hagel would also face some tall hurdles. He opposes Bush's troop increase in Iraq, but the NBC/WSJ poll shows that 61% of GOP primary voters still support the so-called surge, compared with just 30% who oppose it. And the poll also finds that a whopping 63% don't even know who Chuck Hagel is.

 

From NBC's Mark Murray
In other news today, Rudy Giuliani holds a press conference in DC at 9:30 am ET; former Sen. Fred Thompson (R) says he's thinking about a possible White House bid; and Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., does Jon Stewart's "Daily Show."

The Omaha World-Herald says that Hagel hasn't given any clear clues about what he will announce at his press conference this morning. "Hagel, whose current Senate term is up after 2008, could set up a presidential exploratory committee, delay a formal campaign until later or bow out of the White House race. Some have even speculated that he might run as an independent, although he previously seemed to rule that out. Working in his favor, it is still early in the 2008 contest… Some political analysts say there is room for another candidate to join the field."

Now that perhaps some 20-odd states are considering holding their primaries on February 5, 2008, the New York Times examines how this is possibly upending the presidential nominating process. "Aides to the candidates said they were debating whether the changes would mean that the nominations would effectively be settled on Feb. 5, by which point easily 50 percent of the delegates are likely to have been chosen, or whether a few strong candidates would divide the Feb. 5 take, forcing the campaign to stretch on for months. That could, oddly enough, make those fewer states sticking to later primaries vital players in the election cycle."

In a new AP-Ipsos poll released over the weekend, 55% said that honesty, integrity, and other values of character are the most important qualities they look for in a presidential candidate. Just a third look first at issues, and even fewer consider first leadership, intelligence, or experience.

The Washington Post looks at the early sparring between Clinton and Obama. "[E]ach campaign has increasingly fixated on the other, engaging in a shadowboxing match in which they intentionally cross paths but dodge to avoid each other's subtle jabs. With an intensity unusual for this stage of the campaign the two are indirectly engaging, invading each other's terrain and going to great lengths to contrast their candidacies."

While Giuliani has pledged to appoint "strict constructionists" to the courts if he's elected president, the Los Angeles Times reports that "some prominent conservatives are saying that Giuliani's record as mayor undermines that promise. In his eight years leading New York City, they say, Giuliani appointed a number of judges who did not appear to fit the conservative mold."

The AP writes that former Sen. (and "Law and Order" actor) Fred Thompson is seriously thinking about a presidential bid. "'I'm giving some thought to it, going to leave the door open.'" More: "'I'm just going to wait and see what happens,' Thompson added. 'I wanted to see how my colleagues who are on the campaign trail do now -- what they say, what they emphasize, what they're addressing and how successful they are in doing that, and whether or not they can carry the ball in next November.'"

And Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) yesterday called for Attorney General Alberto Gonzales to step down from his job. "The call … came as the Justice Department faced growing criticism over the ouster of eight United States attorneys and the Federal Bureau of Investigation's use of expanded surveillance powers to improperly obtain personal records of citizens."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Rep. David Obey (D) just released this written statement:
"Monday, a group of people, not my constituents, approached me as I was rushing to a meeting on Iraq and we wound up having an argument.

(UPDATE: Obey's office just released a statement saying that he wasn't rushing to a meeting on Iraq; it was just a plain-old meeting.)

"I am sorry that I yelled at them. I respect their passion on the issue, I wish they would respect mine. We are both frustrated, and that led us to have an argument that we never should have had because we both want to see an end to U.S. involvement in that war. What divided us was the question of how.

"When they were arguing that I should vote against the legislation that I am sponsoring, they did not know that the proposal would in fact give the House its first opportunity in the four years of this misguided war to vote on a timeline for bringing it to a close.

"I would hope that the president's announced intention to veto that legislation because of the timeline would convince these folks to reconsider their opposition to it.

"This is just another example of how Americans have become needlessly and painfully divided on a war that I have opposed from the beginning and that the President should never have misled us into.

"I intend to continue to press forward to pass this legislation because it is the best chance we have to bring our involvement in that civil war to a conclusion."

 

From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
Former Majority Leader Howard Baker (R) confirms he has been calling GOP friends to drum up support for his old Watergate committee protégé Fred Thompson -- to run for president. Thompson, one of John McCain's original supporters in 2000, has not disavowed the effort.

Baker says Thompson has told him the drawback is that he has two small children -- but Baker will continue trying to build support for Thompson until the former senator tells him to stop. Which he hasn't. Baker told me: "I called him up -- and said I'm going to plant the seed that you ought to run for president. He told me that he has two small children at home. But I'm going to keep sending up balloons until he tells me not to, and he hasn't."

Why would Baker -- a former McCain supporter -- try to launch Thompson -- another former McCain supporter? Are they dissatisfied with McCain's candidacy? Baker wouldn't bite: "The reason to do it is Fred's a capable person and a longtime friend who would be a good president."

Baker added that McCain called him about his endorsement, but Baker told him he's not ready to endorse anyone yet. Baker has known McCain since the Arizona senator was a returned POW and Navy aide assigned to the Senate. But Baker's wife, former Sen. Nancy Kassebaum Baker, is supporting McCain, an old friend.

By NBC's Mike Viqueira
The powerful chairman of the House Appropriations Committee and the chief sponsor of the bill that would require a US troop withdrawal from Iraq by fall of 2008 has been caught on camera losing his temper with anti-war activists who confronted him outside his Capitol Hill office. In the video, Rep. David Obey (D) rails against "idiot liberals" who are "jumping around" demanding an immediate de-funding of the war. He says the votes aren't there, and angrily opens his coat and asks if they see "a magic wand" in there that would enable him to do that. (Obey doesn't appear to know that he's on camera.)

The veteran Wisconsin Democrat who came to Congress in 1969 is known for getting a bit hot under the collar. The whole encounter begins with a woman stopping him outside his office and telling him about problems she has had with veteran's benefits for her son. Obey, an institutional pragmatist, reminds her that he voted against the war to begin with and adds, "I hate the war." Obey was also among the first on the Hill, if not the very first, to call for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to resign or be fired.

The conversation gets more heated as Obey displays his frustration with the left for not understanding that his bill calls for the eventual withdrawal of all troops, and for their ignorance of the political reality of what is possible and what isn't. He is clearly speaking about outside liberal groups, not specifically about Democrats in the House who share the goal of an immediate withdrawal.

The conversation escalates until finally Obey slams his office door in the activists' faces.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi
The last time Sen. Chuck Hagel was in the national spotlight, one month ago, he had just emerged as the most vocal Republican supporter of the non-binding resolution opposing a troop increase in Iraq.  Then he joined most of his GOP colleagues in voting against it, effectively stifling the measure.  After that awkward turn, which was rooted in hard-to-explain Senate procedure, Hagel withdrew from center stage.

Now he's back there thanks to a highly anticipated announcement about his future plans which could, should those plans include a run for president, set him up as the most prominent Republican war critic in the nation.  The hard-to-decipher Nebraskan, who will make his intentions known in Omaha on Monday, could announce anything from a presidential run as a Republican, to a run as an independent, to a run for third term in 2008, to retirement from the Senate.  Or some combination of the above.

There does seem to be room in the GOP field for one more.  Per the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, only 56% of Republicans are satisfied with their current choices for the presidential nomination, compared to 77% of Democrats.

Still, a Hagel bid would only exacerbate the whole "island of misfit toys" feeling about the Republican presidential field.  As has already been widely reported, the current top three contenders aren't sitting entirely well with the party's conservative base.  Candidate Hagel, on the other hand, would be a true conservative with Vietnam credentials who happens to oppose President Bush -- and line up squarely with majority public opinion -- on the Iraq war.  That might be a winning combination in a general election, but not necessarily in a Republican primary.  Should he seek the party's nomination, Hagel would be gambling that eventually, if not now, there will be enough anti-war voters within the party to provide a base for him to win.

Complicating that effort, and any general election bid, would be his vote against the non-binding resolution.  Hagel ultimately opposed it because he was persuaded by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell that it wasn't fair for Democrats to allow a vote on that measure but not on any other resolutions that had more Republican support.  Even so, that's a tough one to explain -- again demonstrating the hazards for senators who seek the presidency.

As Hagel unveils his plans on Monday, his Democratic colleagues hope to begin debate over their just-proposed binding resolution that would start the redeployment of US troops within 120 days of enactment, with a goal of withdrawing all combat forces by the end of March 2008.  NBC's Ken Strickland reports that the measure also would require President Bush to "promptly transition" the Iraq mission from one of combat to force protection, counter-terrorism, and training of Iraqi forces.  Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he hopes to start a full-fledged debate on Monday, but GOP leaders are unlikely to agree on terms until current disagreements over a homeland security bill are resolved. 

The Iraq bill appears to have the support of most of the Democratic caucus, but not all, Strickland says.  And while Democrats are hopeful they'll gain some GOP support, none appears to exist at the moment.  Even if the debate starts on Monday, which is a big "if," Democrats will face an uphill battle to pass their resolution since, as we all know by now, any controversial bill in the Senate requires 60 votes for passage, and this one may not even garner 51.

The White House yesterday threatened to veto any Democratic legislation that would curtail the war effort -- Bush's third veto threat since Democrats ascended to the majority in January.  House Democrats themselves remain split over their leadership's plan to get US troops out of Iraq by September 1, 2008.  As NBC's Mike Viqueira reports, liberal House members say they want nothing less than a complete withdrawal from Iraq by December 31, 2007.  The plan rolled out by their leadership yesterday continues to fund the war, they say, whereas the only action they want to see funded is a complete withdrawal.

The morning edition of First Read is taking a short breather and will return under new management as some of us make career changes.  Until then, you can continue to find reporting and analysis from NBC's political and Washington coverage team on our website.

Gen. David Petraeus, the top US general in Iraq, "on Thursday said the military surge would continue 'well beyond the summer' as leading Democrats in Congress vowed to press ahead with legislation setting a timetable for withdrawal," reports the Financial Times.  "Separately, Stephen Hadley, the White House national security adviser,... echoed Gen Petraeus in saying there were some positive signs that the surge was damping the level of violence.  But he added that the surge was in 'the early stages, and we're going to have some good days and some bad days'.  Gen Petraeus said that while he currently had no plans to request more troops for the surge, he would ask for more later if required." 

The AP says the vote on the House Democratic leadership's plan "-- expected the week of March 19 -- will be a major test of [Speaker Nancy] Pelosi's ability to lead a party elevated by voters angered by the four-year war.  She will have to prove Democrats are living up to their promise to end the war, without running roughshod over moderates who oppose the war but do not believe in setting firm timelines for withdrawal." 

"The dates for withdrawal have been moved up from earlier drafts in an effort to appease war critics," says the Wall Street Journal of the terms of the House bill.  "Mr. Bush will get a relatively free hand to add more than 26,000 troops over coming months.  But in July and then again Oct. 1, he will be asked to certify that the Iraqi government is showing progress and has met political and military benchmarks.  If at either point Mr. Bush can't meet the certification requirements, the bill calls for withdrawal within 180 days.  If the requirements are met, more time is allowed, but in any case, withdrawal would begin next spring with the goal of having most forces out of Iraq by the end of August -- four months earlier than a prior draft." 

The New York Times notes that the Democrats' new plans have ramifications in the presidential race.  "The Senate plan sets a goal for troops to be removed by March 31, 2008, similar to a proposal by" Obama.  Clinton, meanwhile, "has advocated a phased withdrawal of troops, but has not proposed setting a specific date.  She said she intended to support the Democratic resolution.  'It's a goal; it's not a hard deadline, it's a goal,' Mrs. Clinton said in an interview Thursday evening." 

"The new Democratic proposals for Iraq may eventually be weakened or killed, but in one stroke they have transformed a many-sided debate about the conflict into a sharp-edged argument about the endgame," says a Los Angeles Times analysis.  "Now the Democrats have staked out a specific position while the administration peers into the uncertain future with an open-ended commitment.  That puts Bush under new pressure to tell the public which way he will go next." 

The Washington Times says of both Democratic bills: "It remained vague whether the bills encroached on the president's war powers as commander in chief.  Republicans also questioned whether the restrictions on the president could be enforced." 

Sen. Hillary Clinton yesterday, in a speech at a liberal think tank, proposed a new GI Bill of Rights and blamed President Bush for the problems at Walter Reed and other military facilities and asserted that if Bush won't fix those problems, then his successor (ahem) will.  "The buck does stop with this president," she told the Center for American Progress, "and if he doesn't take responsibility, I can assure you that the next president will." 

Per a poll conducted by Stan Greenberg (D) for liberal MoveOn that was released yesterday, two-thirds of all voters -- and a similar percentage of independents -- living in the 50 most competitive House districts support a March 2008 timeline for withdrawing from Iraq.

As of now, Hagel is scheduled to appear at a bipartisan "presidential forum" sponsored by the International Association of Fire Fighters next Wednesday.  According to the IAFF, Hagel confirmed his attendance on January 9.  Most of the current candidates also are expected to attend, including McCain, Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and former Sen. John Edwards. 

Notably absent will be Giuliani -- a man fire fighters praised in the days after September 11.  In a letter drafted on February 28, the IAFF wrote that Giuliani would not be invited to the forum.  In the letter, they blasted Giuliani for his actions after September 11, mainly his decision to scale back efforts to recover bodies from Ground Zero.  "His actions post 9/11 rise to such an offensive and personal attack on our brother and sisterhood - and directly on our union - that the IAFF does not feel Rudy Giuliani deserves an audience of IAFF leaders and members at our own Presidential Forum," they wrote.  "He valued the money and gold and wanted the site cleared before he left office at the end of 2001 more than he valued the lives and memories of those lost...  The fundamental lack of respect that Giuliani showed our FDNY members is unforgivable - and that's why he was not invited."

Ultimately, that letter was never sent and the IAFF changed their minds and invited Giuliani anyway.  After initially accepting the invite, Giuliani pulled out earlier this week.

The Politico suggests that Giuliani is about to get his, especially if rivals McCain and Romney have anything to say about it. 

Speaking at a fundraiser in New York last night, McCain praised Giuliani for his leadership in the aftermath of September 11, but said Giuliani's lead over him in the polls is insignificant at this point in the race.  "'He's an American hero and I can certainly understand why people would admire him very much,' McCain said…  'I'm not here to try to tout Mayor Giuliani for President of the United States, but having said that, he understands law and order,' McCain said." 

The Los Angeles Times says Giuliani's recent surge "reflects the unsettled state of the GOP field.  No candidate has established himself as the party's consensus choice...  As the campaign intensifies, voters will get to meet the pre-9/11 Giuliani... a mercurial personality who humiliated his second wife in public.  Meanwhile, his post-9/11 persona could prove a bonanza for opposition researchers: He has made millions in consulting and speaking fees that have so far been examined little." 

The New York Times says Giuliani "appears to be mending fences" with former New York City police commissioner William Bratton, as the two met privately in Los Angeles -- for the first time in 11 years.  "Richard Emery, a prominent New York lawyer who is close to Mr. Bratton, said, 'Of all the conflicts to smooth over, this is a big one, because Bill could have an awful lot to say about Rudy in a campaign, and it wouldn't be good.'"    

Giuliani's surge in the polls despite his personal history, and his own continued popularity among conservatives, may have encouraged former Speaker Newt Gingrich to make the admission he did yesterday, that "he was having an extramarital affair even as he led the charge against President Clinton over the Monica Lewinsky affair," as he told James Dobson's Focus on the Family.  "Gingrich argued..., however, that he should not be viewed as a hypocrite for pursuing Clinton's infidelity." 

The Hill reports that former Sen. Howard Baker (R) is making calls trying to gin up support for a presidential bid by his friend and former Sen. Fred Dalton Thompson.  "Thompson has told allies in recent days that he is exploring seriously a bid for president in 2008 in response to what he has described as strong encouragement from Republicans dissatisfied with the current slate of candidates.  Thompson said one reason he is hesitant about running is his longtime friendship with [McCain].  Thompson was one of only four Republican senators to endorse McCain's 2000 presidential campaign and was an important ally in McCain's effort to pass campaign-finance reform in 2002." 

Yesterday, Rove appeared at a presidential library named for the husband of a certain oh-eighter, but his most supportive words went to another Little Rock hometown hero, NBC's Carrie Dann observes.  Asked to handicap the 2008 contenders, Rove was optimistic about the future for Republican Mike Huckabee, saying that the former Arkansas governor's good-natured personality will earn him "a lot of attention."  When questioned about Sen. Barack Obama, Rove included "articulate" as one in a laundry list of complimentary adjectives, but he argued that Obama's perceived inexperience will prompt voters to question whether he can "live up to the standards" of the Oval Office.

Per the Boston Herald, a group of Massachusetts Republicans are on the attack against their former governor.  A new 527 called the Massachusetts Republicans for Truth "will post 'The Romney Report' on its website on Monday, vowing to expose his flip-flops on a host of key issues, from abortion to taxes to gay rights…  Romney aides have dismissed criticism from the hometown crowd, saying his message is resonating with voters nationwide." 

The Miami Herald looks at the fractions within the field over immigration and says Romney "is wooing the party's conservative audiences with the hardest-line immigration stance of any major contender," and that "[h]is appeal among Hispanics in the nation's biggest battleground state faces its first big test tonight, when he addresses the Miami-Dade Republican Party, and Saturday, when he meets privately with Cuban-American leaders in Miami." 

McCain is in Charlotte, where his campaign says he'll make an announcement.  Tomorrow he appears in South Carolina and Tennessee, and on Sunday he heads to Sacramento.  Sen. Sam Brownback campaigns in Iowa tomorrow.

It's not her first trip to New Hampshire as a candidate, but it's her biggest trip there yet.  Sen. Hillary Clinton keynotes the state party's sold-out 100 Club fundraising dinner in Nashua tomorrow night, which C-SPAN is using as the latest installment of its "Road to the White House" coverage.

The Washington Post's Milbank looks at Clinton's use of clichés.  "In fairness, the current occupant of the White House has left future generations little to work with, should they ever decide to etch his words in marble.  Bring 'em on? Smoke 'em out?  With us or against us?  But Clinton's platitudes are deliberate, not innate.  As the Democrats' front-runner, she needs to be as anodyne as possible if she is to overcome her polarizing reputation." 

In an interview with a Texas talk show, former Sen. John Edwards said Libby shouldn't be pardoned, told Ann Coulter to "grow up," and warned his opponents like Obama, who are running for the first time, "'...you'd better know what you're doing.'"

The current chair of the Massachusetts Democratic party and a former Clinton Administration official, Philip Johnston, "declared his support yesterday for Senator Barack Obama," reports the Boston Globe.  Johnston said he is "disappointed" that Clinton "has not acknowledged that she made a mistake by voting in 2002 to support the Iraq war resolution." 

The Chicago Tribune says that Obama's explanation of his stock purchase on Wednesday "leave lingering issues about the selection of the stocks and the timing of their purchase." 

The cover story in the newly designed New Republic profiles Obama's days as an organizer in Chicago. 

Sen. Joe Biden is campaigning in Iowa today and tomorrow, with a town hall on Iraq tonight.  Obama is raising money in New York today, and then spends the weekend campaigning in Iowa.  In advance of his campaign stops in Texas and Minnesota, Rep. Dennis Kucinich's campaign issued a press release late last night that pre-Iraq war documents "reveal Kucinich analysis accurately predicted subsequent events" in Iraq.

Look for the white rubber bracelet.  The anti-poverty ONE campaign is talking to major presidential candidates in an effort to make fighting poverty a major issue in the 2008 race. 

The AP looks at the ethanol deal Bush will sign with Brazil today: "Bush says he wants to work with Brazil, a pioneer in ethanol production for decades, to push the development of alternative fuels in Central America and the Caribbean."  More: "To taunt Bush" during his Latin American tour, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez "will speak at an 'anti-imperialist' rally in a soccer stadium on Saturday in Buenos Aires, Argentina, about 40 miles across the Plate River from Montevideo, where Bush will meet Uruguay's president, Tabor Vazquez." 

The Bush Administration seems to be caving into Democratic lawmakers' demands in the fired US attorneys controversy, communicating yesterday that "Bush would not stand in the way of a Democratic-sponsored bill that would cancel the attorney general's power to appoint federal prosecutors without Senate confirmation."  Attorney General Alberto Gonzales also said that Justice Department officials involved in the firings would be allowed to tell their stories without subpoenas becoming necessary.  "It was a striking reversal for an administration noted for standing its ground even in the face of overwhelming opposition." 

Pegged to his speech in Little Rock yesterday, the Washington Post looks at Karl Rove's efforts to "put his own distinctive spin on current events and the longer historical view."  His point yesterday "was that presidents often come to adopt institutions and policies created by their predecessors, and Rove clearly suggests that this will one day happen as well to the institutions and policies shaped by Bush."  More: "He said that the biggest Bush legacy will be what he terms the 'Bush doctrine.'  It 'says if you train a terrorist, harbor a terrorist, feed a terrorist, you will be treated like a terrorist yourself.  And then the corollary of that, which is that we will not wait until dangers fully materialize before taking action.'" 

One of the funders of the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, "the group that many Democrats still hold responsible for John Kerry's narrow loss to President Bush" in 2004, is still waiting for a committee vote on his nomination to become ambassador to Belgium.  Sen. Joe Lieberman (I), who has benefited from the gentleman's contributions, is backing his nomination.