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  • First glance

    From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi.
    Vice President Cheney is off to Tokyo and Australia as closing arguments begin in the trial of his former chief of staff, I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby.  As NBC's Joel Seidman notes, special counsel Patrick Fitzgerald has presented a detailed case to support charges of perjury and obstruction of justice by presenting several witnesses whose testimony conflicts with Libby's sworn statements to FBI investigators and a grand jury.  Libby's attorneys put on a truncated defense last week.  The bulk of their strategy was based on discrediting Fitzgerald's witnesses during cross-examination, and neither Cheney nor Libby were called to testify.  The prosecution has the burden of convincing the jurors, beyond a reasonable doubt, of Libby's guilt.

    Peter Zeidenberg, a Justice Department prosecutor, will begin the summation case for the government this morning, followed by Theodore Wells for the defense, Seidman reports.  As is customary in federal criminal trials, the prosecutors will have the last word; the prosecution's rebuttal will be presented by Fitzgerald.  Each side will have three hours total.
     
    Libby faces five felony charges for allegedly lying during an investigation of who leaked to reporters the name of CIA operative Valerie Plame Wilson, wife of former ambassador Joseph Wilson, a critic of the Bush Administration's pre-war intelligence.  Libby is charged with: two counts of making false statements to FBI agents, two counts of perjury before a grand jury, and one count of obstructing the CIA leak investigation.  Neither Libby nor anyone else is charged with the actual leak of Plame's name. 

    On the 2008 campaign trail, Sen. Barack Obama (D) gets feted by the Dreamworks trio tonight at the Beverly Hilton, former Gov. Mitt Romney (R) hits the air with a TV ad, and Phil Gramm goes to bat for his old Senate colleague John McCain on fiscal issues in a Wall Street Journal op-ed.  And since Iraq continues to dominate the candidates' Q+A sessions on the trail, and in advance of a Democratic candidate forum in Nevada tomorrow, we've updated the frontrunners' positions on the war: 

    CLINTON: Voted for the 2002 war resolution and does not call it a mistake, but now says that "if we knew then what we know now, there wouldn't have been a vote and I certainly wouldn't have voted that way."  Opposes Bush's call for a troop increase but doesn't support cutting funding to stop it.  After returning from the region last month, called for capping the number of troops in Iraq at pre-surge levels, cutting funding to the Iraqis if they don't meet certain benchmarks, and increasing the number of troops in Afghanistan.  Continues to oppose setting a "date certain" to begin bringing troops home (though her recent statement that if Congress doesn't "end this war before January 2009, as president, I will" could be seen as setting a date certain).

    EDWARDS: Voted for the 2002 war resolution and said he didn't regret the vote during his 2004 campaign, then penned a Washington Post op-ed in November 2005 saying his vote was wrong.  Opposes Bush's troop increase and -- unlike Clinton and Obama -- supports cutting off the funding to pay for the increase.  Calls for the immediate withdrawal of 40,000 to 50,000 US troops to send the message that the Iraqi people must begin to take responsibility for their country.

    GIULIANI: Supports a troop increase but admits he's not confident that the war will come to a successful conclusion.  Has criticized the Administration's handling of the war, saying they should have sent more troops to stabilize the country and shouldn't have disbanded the Iraqi army.  And, sounding like Clinton, agrees that knowing what people know now about the absence of WMD in Iraq, the 2002 war vote may never have happened.

    MCCAIN: Voted for the 2002 resolution and says he doesn't regret his vote for it one bit because he believes Saddam Hussein posed a threat to the United States.  Supports a troop increase but has suggested that 21,500 may not be enough.  Says the Bush Administration -- specifically, Vice President Cheney and former Defense Secretary Rumsfeld -- mismanaged the war.

    OBAMA: Has consistently opposed the war and said he would have voted against the 2002 resolution had he been in the Senate at the time.  At one point, said he was against a phased withdrawal, arguing that it would exacerbate the situation there.  But has modified that position: Advocates capping troop levels and implementing a phased withdrawal starting in May -- with all troops coming home by spring of 2008.  Blasts Bush for the troop increase but doesn't support cutting off funds to stop it.

    ROMNEY: Supports a troop increase but has criticized the war, saying that the Bush Administration didn't do a good job of explaining the decision to invade Iraq and that there were intelligence failures.  Yet believes US troops should stay in Iraq until the country is stable.  Has criticized the Iraq Study Group's recommendations.

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  • Security politics

     

    The Washington Times covers Bush's Presidents Day remarks in which he linked the current war on terror to the nation's battle for independence.  "As he nears the end of his own two terms as president and his Iraq policy faces heavy criticism, Mr. Bush, the 43rd president, seems to take solace in the fact that historians are still digesting the first president's legacy." 

    Pegged to today's closing arguments, the Washington Post looks at Cheney's "shifting status."  "There is no evidence that Cheney's close relationship with Bush has been lessened.  But there is also little doubt that the causes he has championed -- a tough skepticism of negotiations with dictatorships such as North Korea and the forceful exercise of presidential authority -- are being rethought within the Bush administration."  The story notes that "some conservatives close to the administration see Libby's resignation... as part of the unraveling of a Cheney network, leaving a void that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice... has exploited." 

    The Financial Times says the fate of David Hicks, an Australian detainee at Guantanamo Bay, "is likely to overshadow" Cheney's visit to Australia "this week as pressure mounts on Canberra to show that its support for the US-led war on terror can pay dividends."  The story adds, "Australia's involvement in the US-led coalition in Iraq is becoming an increasingly important and divisive issue in the run-up to Australia's federal elections later this year.  The new debate has partly been fuelled by [Prime Minister John] Howard himself, following his sharp criticism of Barack Obama... over his plan to withdraw troops from Iraq."

    The Politico reports that a new conservative group led by talk-show host Hugh Hewitt, called the Victory Caucus, is targeting the 17 GOP House members who voted for the non-binding resolution opposing a troop increase last Friday.  "At the same time, House Republicans are hitting Democrats who represent districts Bush won in hopes of preventing a congressional majority that would restrict money for Afghanistan and Iraq.  The GOP is flooding those districts with news releases and e-mails warning that Democrats are undermining U.S. troops...  The GOP political strategy is to shift the focus away from an unpopular war and unpopular president to the Republican claim that Democrats would abandon the troops." 

    The Politico's Simon, following Sen. Joe Biden (D) in Iowa, looks ahead to the moment in a Democratic presidential debate when those who voted for the Iraq war resolution chant in turn that they regretted that vote -- all except for Clinton. 

  • More oh-eight (D)

    A day before a government employees' union candidate forum in Carson City, NV, Sen. Joe Biden campaigns in Nevada.  Sen. Hillary Clinton meets with community leaders in Miami.  Sen. Chris Dodd campaigns in Iowa.  Sen. Barack Obama, as mentioned above, is in California.  Obama is the only Democrat who will not attend the labor forum tomorrow.

    Clinton followed close behind Obama's zig-zag across South Carolina yesterday, countering his weekend's heavy dose of civil rights imagery by announcing a flurry of endorsements from local black leaders, NBC's Carrie Dann reports.  An overture to minority voters was the clear subtext of her campaign stop at historically black Allen University in Columbia, where she was rewarded with whoops of approval at the mention of her husband, whose staggering popularity with black voters clearly isn't lost on her.  Although the Clinton camp touted a slew of endorsements yesterday, perhaps the most telling words of support came at a tribute to House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, the highest ranking African-American on Capitol Hill.  After Clinton spoke, South Carolina Legislative Black Caucus member J. Seth Whipper joked that she is "almost a homegirl too." 

    Clyburn himself did not offer explicit support for Clinton in his remarks, but granted a nod to both Clinton's groundbreaking run and Obama's in saying, "I don't know whether or not a woman can get elected.  I don't know whether or not a black can get elected... but I know this: nobody gets elected who does not run."

    The New York Daily News notes, "Questions about Clinton's Iraq vote, which dogged her in New Hampshire, did not surface in this heavily military state, where people said they liked her position." 

    And the New York Post writes that Clinton stood side-by-side with state Sen. Darrell Jackson, who endorsed Clinton after her campaign agreed to hire his consulting firm in a deal that could be worth more than $200,000.  "Commenting on the matter for the first time, Clinton insisted that her team struck no side deal with the state senator.  'Sen. Jackson has worked in Clinton campaigns going back to 1992,' she told The Associated Press." 

    The Politico notices how Clinton is playing up her gender.  "And while the shift has the lofty aim of trying to change national attitudes toward women, it also reflects a cold, strategic reality," which is that "despite a persistent storyline of discomfort among many women about her candidacy, she has a history of drawing women's support." 

    The Los Angeles Times recently ran a front-page story questioning Obama's account in his memoir of how he took part in an anti-asbestos campaign in a public housing project back when he was young and worked as a community organizer.  Critics told the paper that Obama took way too much credit for that effort in his book, and that he didn't give enough credit to others who also worked to rid the housing project of asbestos. 

    In response, the Obama campaign issued a detailed press release criticizing the article as misleading and then itemizing and trying to debunk its various claims.  The events actually were as interesting as a case study of how the campaigns are doing rapid response these days, as they were an indicator of the kind of criticism Obama is going to receive during the campaign.

    The San Francisco Chronicle covers Obama's appearance yesterday in San Francisco with Sen. Barbara Boxer (D).  "While the fundraiser was for Boxer, who will run for a fourth Senate term in 2010, Obama was the star of the show…  The Illinois senator was met with deafening applause and calls of 'Mr. President!' when he walked up to address the crowd." 

    The New York Times previews Obama's Hollywood fundraiser, for which Tom Hanks, Jennifer Aniston, Eddie Murphy, and Denzel Washington have bought tickets priced at $2,300 a pop.  "[A]ides to Mr. Obama, loath to let the spotlight on their candidate drift to his wealthy donors or newfound Hollywood ties, declined to discuss the event except to say it would be closed to the news media." 

    Yesterday's Wall Street Journal previewed Obama's fundraiser as part of its look at the high-tech and entertainment industry's approach to favoring presidential candidates.  "Mrs. Clinton -- soon to make her own northern California swing, including a visit to Google executives -- can boast of the shimmering New Economy boom on her husband's watch."

    While technically a baby boomer, Obama's "cultural guideposts are markedly different from the two older baby boomers to have occupied the office, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush," writes the Boston Globe's Canellos.  "Clinton and Bush form perfect bookends: one who drew heavily from the political upheaval and social change of the '60s, and one who defined himself by his distaste for the era...  Obama, who is 15 years younger than both Bush and Clinton, had the '60s in the rearview mirror during his formative years.  He grew up in the aftermath of the huge cultural storm, not the middle." 

    A Quinnipiac Poll of Connecticut voters shows home-state Sen. Chris Dodd placing fourth behind Clinton, Obama, and Al Gore.  Dodd was in Iowa yesterday. where he continued to express his opposition to the non-binding war resolution and played up his campaign message which is that "'experience and leadership matter,'" notes the Des Moines Register. "He admitted, however, that he is a little-known candidate and faces an uphill battle in the state for name recognition with voters."

  • More oh-eight (R)

    Sen. Sam Brownback is in Arizona.  A slew of Republican contenders will make their way through South Carolina this week: McCain visits today, Giuliani stops in tomorrow, Romney pops by on Thursday, and Rep. Duncan Hunter finishes off the week on Friday. 

    In the state yesterday, McCain called for Roe v. Wade to be overturned and promoted abstinence. 

    Former Sen. Phil Gramm writes in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that he believes McCain "might not be the right president for all times, but he is the right president for these times" because of McCain's position on fiscal issues.  McCain, Gramm writes, "trusts our people enough to tell them the truth about the festering domestic problems that have been swept under the rug for a quarter-century."

    Romney plans to go on the air tomorrow in some early primary states with a 60-second ad which describes him "as a 'business legend' who 'rescued the Olympics' and 'turned around a Democratic state,'" the AP reports.  "Romney himself adds: 'This is not a time for more talk and dithering in Washington.  It's a time for action.'  The ad is set to air starting Wednesday in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan and Florida."  A 30-second version also will air.  The story notes, "Fellow Republican Duncan Hunter, a California congressman staging a long-shot bid for the presidency, aired the first ad of either major party last week with a limited buy in South Carolina, North Carolina and South Dakota." 

    Romney told the Des Moines Register yesterday that while the United States should not cut off all communication with Iran, it should "maintain diplomatic isolation" from the country. 

    Romney also told the AP yesterday that "he was confident that research on adult stem cells and the existing embryonic stem cell lines could eventually provide the medical answers" for diseases like MS, which afflicts his wife Ann.   

  • Still more oh-eight

    The Boston Globe looks at how many presidential contenders on both sides are making health care a top campaign priority -- similar to the 1992 campaign.  "But unlike in previous campaigns when candidates have focused almost entirely on the uninsured, the early presidential candidates are talking about promoting wellness as a way to avoid the high costs of treating cancers, heart disease, and other ailments." 

    The Washington Post looks at the tangled web in which top presidential campaign strategists of both parties are all related through their corporate ties to PR/advertising giant WPP Group. 

    USA Today says investors have reason to think the markets will fare well this year because it's "hard to ignore just how well stocks have fared in the third year of the four-year presidential cycle.  The last time the Dow Jones industrial average posted a negative return in a pre-presidential election year was 1939." 

  • The Democratic agenda

    The Washington Post looks at how net neutrality is becoming an issue for Democrats this year, "largely because its most fervid advocates are liberal bloggers and other Internet activists who play a big role in the early stages of choosing a Democratic presidential nominee.  Unlike their Republican counterparts, every major Democratic presidential candidate has endorsed net neutrality.  The move keeps them in good standing with powerful grass-roots groups, such as MoveOn.org, and costs them little in return." 

    The Los Angeles Times says JetBlue's problem increase the likelihood that Congress will take up a passengers' bill of rights. 

    The New York Times profiles freshman Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D), who finds herself in a precarious political situation as a Democrat representing a GOP-leaning district.  "Now, even as the congratulatory letters continue to trickle in, she often looks like a candidate who is still on the run…  That frenetic pace reflects her uncomfortable reality: that her victory last fall, like the success of Democrats nationwide, may have been an aberration that could be undone with a swing in the mood of the electorate or by formidable opposition." 

  • Oh-eight: Weekend wrap

     

    From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Carrie Dann
    Thanks to scrambling by their campaign schedulers, almost all of the '08 hopefuls in the Senate managed to make appearances in key primary states despite Saturday's Iraq vote. Barack Obama managed a short morning rally with students in Orangeburg, SC, before returning to the Capitol, and Hillary Clinton held a town hall in Dover, NH. Joe Biden worked it into his address to a crowd in Iowa on Sunday: "When I flew back to Washington yesterday, we were precluded by four votes to be able to debate the issue and vote on it. There were still 56 senators who voted to condemn the President's escalation."

    The only candidate conspicuously absent from the chamber on Saturday was McCain, who stuck with his planned trip to Iowa rather than go on record against what he called a "meaningless" resolution. In Chicago on Friday, McCain told reporters he's not afraid of skepticism for not voting: "It is a meaningless exercise on a meaningless situation, which is fraught with partisanship, and unfortunately deprives the Republican Party of their ability to have their views voted on this issue. I'm not only not worried, I'm glad to be spending time in Iowa, and discussing this important issue with the citizens of the great state of Iowa." At a campaign stop in Des Moines Saturday, he scoffed at "the issue being bloviated on the Senate floor." 

    McCain's decision not to vote drew a stinging responses from at least one potential rival. Democrat Tom Vilsack released a statement Saturday morning accusing McCain of "shirking his moral and constitutional duty" in favor of his presidential ambitions. Former Sen. John Edwards, asked about McCain's decision to not return for the vote, dodged the question and instead took the opportunity to bash McCain's opinions on Iraq: "I think Senator McCain is dead wrong about what we ought to be doing in Iraq."

    Just as Senate debate on the Iraq resolution was commencing Saturday, the Clinton camp chimed in with a new Web video outlining the Senator's newly introduced "Iraq Troop Reduction and Protection" legislation. In the three-minute "Hillcast," Clinton describes the steps of her "roadmap out of Iraq," including her proposal to revoke congressional authorization for the war unless troop redeployment begins within 90 days. She also explains that the Iraq video is the "first of many" webcasts that will be posted "just about every week." Unlike the chatty online Q&A sessions posted after her exploratory announcement last month, the first "Hillcast" has a noticeably sober tone.
     
    Other than Iraq, a second issue that was clearly on Obama's mind during his weekend stops in South Carolina was race.  Responding to comments by South Carolina state Sen. Robert Ford that a black candidate for the presidency would hurt the Democratic ticket, Obama painted his fight as a continuation of the civil rights battles of previous generations: "When somebody said 'Don't sit at the lunch counter, don't stir up trouble. We can't do that,' we did it!" His remarks prompted enthusiastic chants of "Yes We Can!" from crowds at the University of South Carolina on Friday night and from students at the historically black Claflin University on Saturday.

  • First Glance

    From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi
    For the first time, those members of the Senate who have designs on the presidency must consider changing their campaign schedules in order to be in Washington for a symbolically important vote -- in this case, a Saturday afternoon vote on whether or not to end the Republican filibuster of the debate over a US troop increase in Iraq.  (Frustrated lawmaker/candidates can't complain, though, since it's not like Democratic leaders have rigidly adhered to their pledged five-day work week.)

    Democrats failed to get 60 votes last week when their leadership tried to move ahead with the debate and don't necessarily have 60 lined up now, so it probably wouldn't be cool for some of their ranks to be missing at 1:45 pm tomorrow because they're off running for the White House.  Sen. Joe Biden has changed his travel plans and will zig-zag between Iowa and Washington.  Sen. Hillary Clinton will fly to and from New Hampshire.  Sens. Chris Dodd and Barack Obama are slated to be in South Carolina tomorrow and have not announced any schedule changes at this writing. 

    As NBC's Doug Adams notes, if Democrats again fail to get the required 60 votes, they'll aim for headlines in the Sunday papers such as "Republicans continue to block debate on Iraq."  Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says he still plans to try to block it, despite the PR hit his party took for being "obstructionist" when they stalled debate last week.  NBC's Ken Strickland reports that McConnell is insisting that the debate also include a vote on whether to cut off troop funding, persisting with his argument that if Democrats are going to hold a vote that will show divisions within the GOP caucus, there should also be a vote to show divisions among Democrats.  But after exchanging various offers, McConnell and Majority Leader Harry Reid again failed to come to terms.  As a result, Republicans are again using Senate rules to require 60 votes rather than a simple majority.

    The House is expected to pass the non-binding resolution today with the help of at least a couple dozen Republicans, and Senate Democrats have adopted the House version of the resolution as their own, jettisoning GOP Sen. John Warner's version, Adams reports.  Whereas last week virtually all Senate Republicans voted against starting the debate, after getting accused of voting against their own resolution, some of those Republicans are hinting they'll join Democrats this time around.  Strickland reports that Warner himself says he's inclined to vote with Democrats, and some of his GOP co-sponsors may follow suit. 

    Senate Democrats also are offering to hold a vote on Sen. John McCain's resolution endorsing the troop increase and setting up benchmarks for the Iraqi government to meet.  McCain is scheduled to be in Iowa tomorrow, and a spokesman says that at this writing, there's no plan to change that.  Fellow presidential contender Sen. Sam Brownback (R), who opposes the troop increase, is supposed to be attending the National Religious Broadcasters convention in Orlando.

    That five-day convention begins today and will be attended by thousands of pastors, radio hosts, and other religious communicators, plus a few Republican presidential candidates.  Former Gov. Mitt Romney will hold private meetings there from Friday to Sunday, while McCain will attend a closed-press meet-and-greet on Monday that will feature Jerry Falwell (whom he once called an agent of intolerance, but he then gave the commencement address at Falwell's Liberty University last year).  Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani reportedly will not attend, neither will former Gov. Mike Huckabee.

    In recent elections, religious conservatives have been the heart and soul of the Republican party, and they unquestionably make up a large portion of those who will vote in the GOP primaries.  Yet as we and others have written, all three of the early frontrunners for the nomination have problems with these voters.  McCain has never been identified as a member of their group ("I would not vote for John McCain under any circumstances," evangelical leader James Dobson has said); Romney, an observant Mormon, doesn't have a consistent record on abortion, gay rights, and stem-cell research; and the thrice-married Giuliani supports abortion rights and embryonic stem-cell research. 

  • Security Politics

    President Bush meets with his incoming CENTCOM commander today.  Defense Secretary Robert Gates said yesterday "that the United States had no intention of attacking Iran and that any American military efforts against it would be confined to Iraq to disrupt the smuggling of bomb-making materials over the border," the New York Times says.  "'For the umpteenth time, we are not looking for an excuse to go to war with Iran,' he said.'"  

    "House Republican opponents of [Bush's] latest Iraq war plan cut across the GOP's ideological and regional spectrum," notes the Washington Post of today's anticipated vote -- also pointing out that "the lion's share of GOP opponents of the Bush plan come from comfortable to very safe congressional districts," not from marginal districts. 

    Rep. John Murtha (D) yesterday laid out his proposal for how to stop the troop increase before it's completed, while still maintaining Speaker Nancy Pelosi's pledge not to cut off funding for "troops in the field," NBC's Mike Viqueira reports.  Murtha plans to attach strings to Bush's $100 billion war funding bill that will effectively force the Administration to stall the surge.  The provisions he proposes include: prohibiting the Pentagon from sending troops back into battle until they've had a year at home after being deployed; prohibiting the Pentagon from extending tours; ending the Pentagon's "stop-loss" policy; and prohibiting the establishment of permanent US military bases in Iraq.

    If his measures are enacted, Murtha says, "they won't be able to continue, they won't be able to do the deployment."  His defense appropriations subcommittee is the first stop in Congress for Bush's $100 billion request for the remainder of this fiscal year, Viq notes.  Murtha says it will be reported out of committee on March 15 and will taken up by the House shortly thereafter.

    Republicans went on the attack, claiming that Murtha's plan flies in the face of Democratic leadership's pledge not to cut off funding for troops "in the field," even though the provisions that Murtha laid out would seem to meet the "in the field" criteria.  An outpouring of statements from Republican members have decried Democrats' alleged "slow bleed" strategy, a term Democrats have used to refer to how they would seek to narrow the Administration's options on Iraq, but which Republicans are trying to suggest applies to the US troops there.

    USA Today says the votes in Congress today and tomorrow will show the limits of the resistance Democrats are willing to put up against Bush's Iraq policy.  Both Reid and Speaker Nancy Pelosi "were cool to [Murtha's] proposal to require soldiers to receive more time at home between deployments and more training before being shipped out...  'The answer is no,' Reid said when asked whether there are any legally binding measures he's prepared to support.  Pelosi was non-committal." 

    The New York Daily News on tomorrow's Senate vote: "Senate Democratic leaders threw a monkey wrench into the campaign plans of a half-dozen presidential candidates yesterday, setting a litmus test vote on Iraq for tomorrow…  The campaigns didn't complain out loud, but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said not all caucus members were pleased.  'Not everyone,' he said.  'It's hard to get everyone to agree.'" 

    The Democratic Senate campaign committee plans to start running print ads today in New Hampshire and Oregon attacking GOP Sens. John Sununu and Gordon Smith for their procedural votes against the resolution opposing Bush's troop increase.

    Senate Foreign Relations chair Joe Biden announced yesterday that he will "seek to repeal the 2002 congressional authorization for Bush to wage war in Iraq and substitute legislation that would narrow the mission of troops there and begin to bring some home." 

    The Los Angeles Times takes its turn looking at Democrats' internal struggle to tamp down calls for cutting off funding for the troops. 

    The New York Times notes that three state legislatures (in California, Iowa, and Vermont) have passed resolutions opposing Bush's policies in Iraq, and another general assembly (in Maryland) sent a letter to its congressional delegation urging them to vote against Bush's troop increase.  "Letters or resolutions are being drafted in at least 19 other states.  The goal is to embarrass Congress into passing its own resolution and to provide cover for Democrats and Republicans looking for concrete evidence back home that anti-Iraq resolutions enjoy popular support."  

    "About $10 billion has been squandered by the U.S. government on Iraq reconstruction aid because of contractor overcharges and unsupported expenses, and federal investigators warned Thursday that significantly more taxpayer money is at risk," reports the AP.  "The three top auditors overseeing work in Iraq told a House committee their review of $57 billion in Iraq contracts found that Defense and State department officials condoned or allowed repeated work delays, bloated expenses and payments for shoddy work or work never done." 

  • More Oh-Eight (R)

    Among those presidential contenders not serving in the Senate, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani headlines a fundraiser in Richmond, VA tomorrow, and former Gov. Mitt Romney is in Florida.

    CQ Politics reports, "Even though Giuliani stated, 'Yes, I'm running, sure,' in response to a question by [Larry] King about his candidacy status, that does not mean he is officially in the race to succeed President Bush, said Giuliani exploratory campaign spokeswoman Maria Comella.  She told CQPolitics.com Thursday that a formal announcement 'is still coming.'" 

    Prominent evangelical conservative Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention "told The Hill in an interview this week that as it stands now, the top tier of Republican presidential hopefuls lacks a candidate social conservatives can be fully comfortable voting for."  His first prediction was that Giuliani will not become the GOP nominee.  He also said "Romney has to 'convince' social conservatives his conversions on issues such as abortion and gay rights are authentic rather than politically motivated."  And he said that McCain's "strengths with independent voters are what is hurting him with socially conservative voters." 

    The New York Post says that Giuliani will speak at Pat Robertson's Regent University on April 17.  "The appearance in April comes at a time when Giuliani is trying to build bridges to conservatives who dominate GOP primaries and who are wary of his pro-choice, pro-gay-rights stands." 

    Following a candid TV interview, the Boston Globe profiles Ann Romney, her journey to Mormonism, her relationship with her husband, and his campaign for president. 

    The Politico reports on Brownback's growing record of missed votes.  "Only Sen. Tim Johnson, D-S.D., who remains hospitalized after a life-threatening brain hemorrhage, has missed more." 

    Potential presidential candidate Newt Gingrich and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) debate whose book is better and the broader future of the two parties at the National Press Club.  The Washington Times points out that while Gingrich consistently ranks in the top tier of GOP candidates in national polls, he gets comparably little attention because he hasn't made any moves toward running.  (He has said he'll decide in the fall.) 

  • Oh-Eight (D)

    Among those presidential contenders not serving in the Senate, former Sen. John Edwards will be in Iowa and Las Vegas tomorrow talking about his universal health care plan.  Former Gov. Bill Richardson is in New Hampshire today and tomorrow, keynoting a Concord, NH Democratic dinner tomorrow.

    The New York Daily News writes that Clinton yesterday charged that a nuclear power company -- a client of Giuliani's firm -- needs a safety review.  "Following some recent scares at Entergy's Indian Point nuclear power plant in Westchester County, Clinton has reintroduced a bill that would force a stepped-up review of the plant by the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission…  Left unsaid was that Entergy is a major client of Giuliani Partners, which for years has worked as a consultant to develop Indian Point's evacuation and safety plans."  The article adds that the news "immediately put Team Giuliani on the defensive and underscored how the former mayor's private-sector client list could cause him a series of small headaches." 

    The State covers the small brouhaha surrounding a big Clinton hire/endorsement in South Carolina.  "When asked Tuesday by a reporter, [state Sen. Darrell Jackson said he was backing Clinton, D-N.Y.  A day later, a national political Web site reported Jackson's consulting firm, Sunrise Enterprises, had agreed to work for Clinton for $10,000 a month." 

    Ralph Nader has once again said he might run for president if Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, notes the San Francisco Chronicle. 

    The Chicago Tribune says that Obama's revamped website "looks a lot like MySpace and Facebook, and that is no accident.  As a presidential candidate offering himself as a generational change agent, Obama is leveraging online social networking in a nearly unprecedented way in yet another clear measure of how the Internet is transforming politics." 

    With Obama making his first trip to South Carolina today, the AP notes that he may have a tougher time here than some thought.  "If there is a single state where being black holds the potential to boost Obama's chances to win the Democratic presidential nomination, South Carolina fits the bill…  Yet, Democratic voters and party officials here said the Illinois senator will have to do as much persuading as any other candidate to win the support of blacks, who make up about half the Palmetto State's Democratic voters." 

    The Des Moines Register recaps former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack's appearance on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno last night.  "'I'm not a rock star, I'm rock solid,' Vilsack told his comic host when asked about competing with his celebrity rivals." 

    With Sen. Chris Dodd on a swing through New Hampshire today, the Manchester Union Leader looks at his recent comments about Iraq and Iran and his criticism of his colleagues on the debate over non-binding resolutions.  "Dodd called the Senate jockeying, including a key role by Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., 'all clever stuff.  The problem is there are kids dying there and the Iraqis are suffering terribly.  The politics worked pretty well for everybody... but the problem was the people on the ground going through a lot have to sit there and wonder what's going on.'" 

    Al Gore yesterday rolled out plans for a 24-hour concert in July to promote awareness and efforts to halt climate change.  "Asked yet again if he's running for president ('no'), the former veep was quizzed about lingering skeptics of global warming.  Gore sighed, and then joked that the doubters must get together on Saturday nights with the folks who believe the moon landings were staged in the Arizona desert.  Said Gore, 'I'm running out of things to say to them.'" 

  • The Bush/GOP Agenda

    The White House communications office is e-mailing around David Broder's Washington Post column suggesting that Bush may be "poised for a political comeback...  Like President Bill Clinton after the Democrats lost control of Congress in 1994, Bush has gone through a period of wrenching adjustment to his reduced status.  But just as Clinton did in the winter of 1995, Bush now shows signs of renewed energy and is regaining the initiative on several fronts...  More important, he is demonstrating political smarts that even his critics have to acknowledge." 

    In his weekly National Journal column, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook writes about the potential "vicious cycle" Republicans face in this hostile political climate.  "Simply put, if a sizable number of GOP incumbents become pessimistic about their party's chances of reclaiming its majorities or if they conclude that getting beaten at the polls next year is a real possibility, we might see a disproportionate number of Republican retirements.  If the GOP is forced to defend a large number of open seats, its chances of making a successful comeback in 2008 will get even worse."

    The New York Times reports that former White House counsel Harriet Miers, before she left office, orchestrated the ouster of the US attorney in Arkansas and replaced him with GOP operative Tim Griffin.  Miers' "involvement was disclosed on Wednesday by Justice Department officials led by [deputy Attorney General Paul] McNulty, who held a closed-door briefing for senators on the Judiciary Committee after Democrats criticized the dismissals of 7 to 10 United States attorneys as politically motivated." 

  • The Democratic Agenda

    The Wall Street Journal looks at the looming possible compromise between the Democrat-run Congress and President Bush on fixing the Alternative Minimum Tax.  "Congressional Democrats are eager to keep the AMT from ensnaring millions more middle-class taxpayers.  They also must find a way to cover the estimated $50 billion cost of scaling back the tax this year.  In recent days, Bush administration officials have signaled they may not oppose a likely method of covering those costs: raising taxes on the nation's wealthiest citizens...  The Bush tax cuts have accelerated the AMT's reach into the middle class." 

    One Gulf Coast Democrat in the House has vented to the press about his frustration with how slowly House Democratic leaders are moving to boost hurricane recovery efforts. 

    House Financial Services chair Barney Frank doesn't have direct oversight over trade, but his comments yesterday that Democratic lawmakers are too concerned about globalization to support major trade legislation "show how difficult it will be to reach a compromise satisfying rank-and-file members while keeping open the possibility of further trade deals," says the Financial Times. 

  • The Libby Trial

    The Los Angeles Times explores the extent of the risk taken by Libby's defense in not putting him on the stand.  In his opening statement, Libby's attorney had "declared that Libby had been the victim of a White House conspiracy to make Libby the fall guy for the CIA leak scandal.  But when the jury begins deliberating the fate of the former vice presidential aide next week, it will have seen virtually no evidence to back up the provocative claim." 

  • Murtha's anti-surge plan

    From NBC's Mike Viqueira
    Rep. Jack Murtha (D) says that he has figured out a way to stop Bush's so-called troop "surge" before it is completed, while still maintaining Speaker Nancy Pelosi's pledge not to cut off funding for "troops in the field." He tells MoveCongress.org in a Web cast this morning that he plans to attach strings to the president's $100 billion war funding bill that will effectively force the Administration to stall the troop increase.

    The provisions he proposes include:
    -- prohibiting the Pentagon from sending people back into battle until they have had a year at home after being deployed. He says he has figured out that in order to fulfill the surge requirements, the Defense Department would have to send people back after seven months at home;
    -- prohibiting the Pentagon from extending tours;
    -- ending the Pentagon's "stop loss" policy;
    -- and prohibiting the establishment of permanent U.S. military bases in Iraq.

    He says that the Pentagon would have to "certify" that any units deployed in the future were "combat ready." In addition, Murtha says that he is "considering" adding provisions to close Guantanamo and "bulldoze" Abu Ghraib. If his measures are enacted, he says, "they won't be able to continue, they won't be able to do the deployment." Murtha's defense appropriations subcommittee is the first stop in Congress for the president's $100 billion request for the remainder of this fiscal year. He says that it will be reported out of committee on March 15 and taken up by the House shortly thereafter.

  • First glance

    From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi.
    Even as the House moves closer to handing President Bush a symbolic thumping on his planned troop increase in Iraq, it shares the spotlight today with Bush himself, some posturing Democratic presidential candidates, and a few of the Senate Republicans who were for their chamber's version of the resolution opposing an increase, then voted against it.  They're now trying to kill the Senate's upcoming week-long President's Day recess to secure a vote on the measure.

    Bush delivers a speech on the global war on terror which, if yesterday's press conference was any indication, will be an effort to give his allies in the House a boost and won't contain any olive branches for opponents of a troop increase.  Bush also will talk about Afghanistan, NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports -- specifically, about why some troops will have their tours extended to deal with the Taliban threat this spring.  And he'll discuss "successes in the war on terror" around the world, including the killing of the leader of al Qaeda-linked group in the Philippines.

    Sen. Joe Biden ventures into the spotlight for the first time since he triggered the first media frenzy of the 2008 campaign by calling his colleague Barack Obama "mainstream," "articulate," and "clean."  Biden will address the Brookings Institution about Iraq.  Rival John Edwards, trying to turn his lack of a Senate platform into a plus, is casting himself as the leading Democratic candidate who is the most opposed to the war. 

    While Bush speaks and the House debates, Senate Republican opponents of the troop increase continue to try to revive the effort to pass John Warner's non-binding resolution.  Warner has been trying, albeit in vain, to kick-start the debate on his resolution by vowing to attach it to any piece of legislation that moves through the chamber, as NBC's Ken Strickland reported here yesterday.  Warner even raised the possibility of forgoing the week-long recess next week to vote on various Iraq resolutions. 

    Now two more GOP opponents of a troop increase, Sens. Chuck Hagel and Olympia Snowe, are trying to kill the recess unless leaders of both parties agree on a framework to vote on the Warner measure.  But at the most, Strickland says, their efforts will annoy their colleagues by requiring them to remain on Capitol Hill longer on Thursday to take a vote to overrule Hagel and Snowe's objections to adjourn. 

    Last week, Hagel, Snowe and Warner all joined the vast majority of their conference last week in voting to block the debate from even starting, saying that their Republican colleagues who wanted to vote on measures supportive of the White House strategy weren't being allowed to do so.  Now that they're agitating to kill next week's recess to secure a vote on Warner's resolution, Strickland reports, Majority Leader Harry Reid's spokesman Jim Manley says that while Reid "appreciates their sense of urgency, the Congress and the country would have been better served had they demonstrated their desire last week." 

    Warner told reporters recently that Minority Leader Mitch McConnell had assured him that there ultimately would be a vote on his resolution: "I voted [against starting the debate] in good faith with the assurance of our leader that he felt quite certain that my resolution would have a chance to be voted up or down.  And on that commitment from him - best he could make - I did vote against it."

    After the recess, during the week of February 26, Reid plans to bring the House's non-binding resolution to the Senate floor.   Earlier this week, he said the Warner resolution could be offered as an amendment to it.  At this writing, it's unclear whether Minority Leader Mitch McConnell supports Hagel and Snowe's effort, Strickland reports.  McConnell is being blamed for making his caucus look obstructionist by blocking the vote.

    Also in the Senate today, Iraq is likely to come up in a handful of hearings, including Foreign Relations Committee confirmation hearings for Bush's nominees to become ambassadors to Iraq and Afghanistan, and an Armed Services Committee hearing with the generals representing the Army and Marine Corps, who will testify on their current and future readiness. 

  • Security politics

     

    The Washington Post covers the White House's credibility problem when it comes to intelligence about Iran: "The administration, conscious of its low credibility, believes it has gone out of its way to convince doubters that Iran is not Iraq all over again...  Much as the Vietnam Syndrome dogged the foreign and military policies of a generation of U.S. presidents, the Iraq Syndrome has become an ever-present undercurrent in Washington." 

    The New York Times says Bush's statement yesterday that certain factions inside the Iranian government are supplying Shiite militants with roadside bombs that have killed US troops "amounted to his most specific accusation to date that Iran was undermining security in Iraq.  They appeared to be part of a concerted effort by the White House to present a clearer, more direct case that Iran was supplying the potent weapons - and to push back against criticism that the intelligence used in reaching the conclusions was not credible." 

    For the House debate over the non-binding resolution opposing a troop increase, "The extent of the Republican opposition to Bush's plan is the only suspense left," says USA Today. 

    House Democratic aides pointed out yesterday that Bush's speech happened to be scheduled for the same time when the biggest detractors of a troop increase within his own party's ranks were set to speak on the House floor.  The Los Angeles Times covers the group of 11 Republicans who spoke out.  "What remains unclear is how many GOP war critics will get behind the next step in the debate - Democratic efforts to go beyond symbolic opposition to Bush's pursuit of his Iraq policy."  Also today, Rep. John Murtha is expected "to announce a strategy for imposing limits on Bush's ability to carry out the troop increase." 

    Murtha will deliver a videotaped message to MoveOn members at house parties across the country tonight, urging them to write their members of Congress and call for them to oppose Bush's planned troop increase.

    The Washington Times notes that Democratic leaders yesterday tried to keep a lid on an intraparty fight of their own, quelling "voices within their own party who want to 'defund' the war in Iraq, while Republicans said that is exactly what the majority party intends to do." 

    Roll Call's Stuart Rothenberg looks down the road at whether or not Republican lawmakers will manage to distance themselves from Bush over Iraq in the next two years.  "It is almost impossible for GOP Members of Congress to talk about Iraq - about what is happening on the ground and about what to do about it - without being drawn into a discussion of the president and his policies.  Even more than that, Republicans will have to figure out what they'll do about - and with - the president when their national convention rolls around 18 months from now.  Does anybody really believe that Republicans will be able to put together a convention that ignores the president of the United States?"

    The Boston Herald details the proposal Sen. John Kerry (D) will introduce today, which will seek "to punish war profiteers, root out cronyism in post-war contract awards and give new protections to whistleblowers." 

    The Chicago Tribune writes that the husband of failed House candidate Tammy Duckworth (D), who lost both legs serving in Iraq, is now being deployed to Iraq himself. 

    Australian Prime Minister John Howard's attack on Sen. Barack Obama (D) has forced the "main contenders in this year's Australian federal elections... into a surprisingly early and forceful debate on the country's involvement in the US-led coalition in Iraq," says the Financial Times.  Howard suggested last weekend that "that terrorists would want Mr Obama elected because of his proposal to withdraw US troops from Iraq by March 2008...  The spat has left political commentators questioning the normally astute centre-right prime minister's judgment." 

  • More oh-eight (R)

     

    Someone please just let us know when Rudy Giuliani plans to make his actual announcement speech, because he's already announced his candidacy a handful of times.  On CNN last night: "Yes, I'm running, sure."  In California earlier this week: "Sure, I'm running."  Etc.

    The New York Times focuses on Giuliani's remarks on CNN concerning Iraq, which included criticism of Bush's handling of the war.  "He said that the United States went to war with far too few forces and was wrong to dismantle Saddam Hussein's military and government, and he conceded that if more information had been available about Iraq's weapons, Congress never would have approved the war." 

    Giuliani is now checking with the Federal Election Commission about how to handle his $100,000 fees for the remaining speeches on his schedule.  "Giuliani's aides said he will not accept any more requests for paid speeches." 

    Talking on Radio Iowa, Giuliani admitted to making mistakes in his previous marriages -- but added that he's tried to learn from them.  "It was a rare moment of self-criticism for the former mayor, who lately has been trying to boost his image among conservatives by projecting himself as happily married to his third wife, Judith Giuliani, and massaging his views on abortion and other social issues." 

    The explicit theme of former Gov. Mitt Romney's post-announcement stump speech may be "innovation and transformation," NBC's Carrie Dann writes, but the steady and prominent presence this week of his wife Ann suggests a notable subtext to Romney's fight for the GOP nomination.  In all of his public appearances since his announcement Tuesday, Romney has gushed about his "sweetheart" Ann, who in turn has used her time with the microphone to remind audiences that she and Romney fell in love in high school and have been married for 37 years.  Besides being well-timed to Valentines Day, their adoring glances highlight Romney's family values cred -- a key advantage in courting conservative voters that Romney holds over rivals Giuliani, who's on his third marriage, and Sen. John McCain, who's on his second.

    Romney will speak at the commencement ceremonies at Pat Robertson's Regent University on May 5. 

    McCain is outpacing his rivals and his 2000 track record in lining up endorsements from his Senate colleagues this time, which The Politico casts as "a vivid illustration of the onetime maverick's ability to make amends with colleagues and the conservative establishment that many of them represent."  More: "A Senate Republican aide with knowledge of the endorsement derby said Romney's wooing has been based more on his ideas and policy vision while McCain's team has focused on 'the inevitability factor' and it being McCain's 'turn.'" 

    While it doesn't come as a surprise to many, former Massachusetts Gov. Jane Swift (R) has endorsed McCain over hometown candidate Romney.  Swift's endorsement adds to the list of Bay Stater's who have "forsaken" Romney in favor of other candidates, points out the Boston Globe. 

  • More oh-eight (D)

     

    Edwards yesterday "called on his former colleagues to go further than their non-binding criticism of President Bush's 'surge' plan, recommended a lower troop ceiling than other Democrats have" -- of 100,000 -- "and charged that the original congressional authorization no longer applies to the war."  Edwards "also said he would not support such a cut-off for existing operations." 

    The New York Daily News observes how Bill Clinton has so far been absent from the campaign trial.  "But the Daily News has learned that will soon change, with plans to haul out the Bubba gun for a mega-fund-raiser next month where top backers will be asked to raise $250,000 apiece." 

    Ebony's Barack-and-Michelle issue is selling noticeably better than most issues of the magazine. 

    Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine (D) is endorsing Obama, who will speak at the state Democratic party's big fundraising dinner this weekend. 

    Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack appears on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno tonight, where he hopes to talk about the energy security plan he unveiled Tuesday.  Per spokesman Josh Earnest, Leno's people invited Vilsack to appear after Leno joked about Vilsack's name -- similar to what Jon Stewart did, but without the AFLAC duck -- in recent monologues.  The Des Moines Register shares that the show "has inquired about permission to use a certain Des Moines Register photograph of the former governor.  You know the one."  (The one with Vilsack dressed up as Winnie the Pooh.) 

  • The Bush/GOP agenda

     

    The Washington Post's Milbank observes of Bush's press conference yesterday, "The president seemed petulant in his refusal to answer questions; he was, after all, the one who summoned reporters to the White House for the purpose of questioning him.  Probably, it was the tone of the questions that set him off: While Bush freely voiced his beliefs, the reporters seemed disinclined to accept his statements of faith." 

    Fed chief Ben Bernanke wasn't exactly bullish on making Bush's tax cuts permanent in his testimony before a Senate committee yesterday.  He "urged action... to balance the budget and curb income inequality through better education, saying such goals should take priority."  However, he also "said the benefits from raising revenues by letting [Bush's] tax cuts expire in 2010 must be weighed against the growth impact from higher taxes.  He strongly urged Congress to strive to improve the government's balance sheet and said his biggest worry is the government is not prepared to finance baby boomers' retirement starting in 2011." 

    Roll Call says the White House has stepped up its lobbying of members of Congress on Bush's domestic priorities as the start of an effort to round out Bush's Iraq-heavy legacy "because the window is narrowing to pass Bush's priorities with just two years remaining in his second term.  Bush officials also recognize that this year is their best hope to advance controversial bills such as immigration reform, given the politics of the 2008 presidential election already is taking hold."

    Senate Republicans today plan to roll out "a seven-point agenda laden with traditional GOP initiatives from tax cuts to a stronger national security designed to redefine them as the party of reform."

    Hispanic Democratic lawmakers hold a press conference this afternoon to argue how Bush's proposed budget will hurt Latino families.  Due in part to the heated rhetoric in last year's immigration debate, Republicans received just 30% of the Latino vote in the midterms, per the exit polls -- down from the approximately 40% Bush won in 2004.

  • Battle for the Senate

    Presidential contenders aren't the only ones announcing via the web: Al Franken (D) jumped into the Minnesota Senate race yesterday via a web video in which he "acknowledged that voters may have doubts about electing a former Saturday Night Live performer." 

    Franken tackled the question of whether his candidacy should be taken seriously: "'Minnesotans have a right to be skeptical,' Franken said in a video message on his campaign website…  'I want you to know: Nothing means more to me than making government work better for the working families of this state,' [he] said.  'And over the next 20 months I look forward to proving to you that I take these issues seriously.'" 

  • The blotter

    The defense has rested in the Libby trial.  Closing arguments are scheduled for Tuesday. 

    The New York Times front-pages the liberal blog that has been covering the trial, Firedoglake.com, which "has offered intensive trial coverage, using some six contributors in rotation.  They include a former prosecutor, a current defense lawyer, a Ph.D. business consultant and a movie producer, all of whom lodge at a Washington apartment rented for the duration of the trial." 

    And the FBI is investigating whether Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) "accepted unreported gifts or payments from a company that was awarded secret military contracts when Mr. Gibbons served in Congress," the Wall Street Journal reports, updating a story it broke late last year.  A spokesperson says that Gibbons "'held no special power in awarding defense contracts, which go through a multilevel approval process.'"  The Journal notes that the Duke Cunningham case and "claims made against Mr. Gibbons have drawn attention to alleged congressional abuse of the classified or 'black' portion of the federal budget, which covers CIA, NSA and other secret government activities and has grown to at least $30 billion."

  • Hillary on Iran

    From NBC's Ken Strickland
    In a speech on the Senate floor, Sen. Hillary Clinton says if President Bush has any plans for military action against Iran, he must first get new authorization from Congress. Her speech responded to all the recent developments with Iran, including evidence presented by the Administration last weekend suggesting that the Iranian government is supplying insurgents with bomb-making materials.

    She said the evidence was "by no means conclusive," and later added that Congress needs "a steady stream of real verifiable" intelligence, while recalling the ramp-up to the war four years ago was based on "faulty" intel. "It appears the Bush Administration still doesn't "understand the facts on the ground," she said.

    Clinton's language was strong, but echoed remarks made by others on Iran. She called for direct talks with Iran, but insisted "no option be taken off the table." She added that the Administration needed to "deliver a strong message ... and not tolerate this behavior" from Iran.

  • Overshadowing his GOP critics?

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    As we discussed earlier, President Bush's decision to hold a news conference today at 11:00 am ET is a way to thrust himself back onto center stage. But the news conference's timing (intentionally or not) will also end up overshadowing the House Republicans who are opposing his troop increase. Rep. Walter Jones (R), who is backing the non-binding resolution opposing the president's plan, is scheduled -- along with other GOP critics -- to speak this morning on the House floor at the same time as Bush begins his newser.

    Timing, as they say, is everything in politics.

  • First Glance

    From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi
    The White House may cast President Bush's schedule of late as that of a chief executive who has many other responsibilities to attend to beyond watching the House vote on a non-binding resolution he doesn't plan to heed.  But what the President's recent schedule has looked like is that of a lame duck.  While the House debates and ultimately is expected to reject his new Iraq war policy, Bush is attending events on volunteerism and meeting with the leaders of Lithuania, Liberia and Panama.  Tomorrow, this president who so likes to hit the road will give a speech on the war on terror in a Washington hotel ballroom.

    Maybe this occurred to the White House, as well, since they just added a news conference to Bush's schedule for later this morning.  NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that Bush will talk in his opening statement about his first conversation with his newly confirmed commander of US forces in Iraq, David Petraeus, and about the accord just reached over North Korea.  He'll also talk about the House debate. 

    Bush's likely goal for the news conference and his speech tomorrow is to give his allies a rhetorical boost by casting the debate over his planned troop increase as part of the broader fight against terrorism, while critics focus narrowly on his planned troop increase.  Democrats are seizing upon a letter from two leading House Republicans to their colleagues as proof that Bush's own party thinks a troop increase is a PR disaster.  "If we let Democrats force us into a debate on the surge or the current situation in Iraq, we lose," the two members wrote.

    Meanwhile, Senate Democrats and GOP critics of the troop increase are strategizing about how to revive the aborted debate in that chamber.  Majority Leader Harry Reid says he'll try to pass the House version of a resolution opposing a US troop increase in Iraq when the Senate returns to the debate, probably in a couple of weeks, NBC's Ken Strickland reports.  Reid says he actually prefers the House measure to the bipartisan measure authored by Republican John Warner, which Reid had previously supported.  "It's so much more direct," he told reporters at a news conference.  "We support the troops.  We oppose the surge.  Perfect." 

    Reid said he'll start the process of getting the House measure on the Senate floor today, but that Senate rules and the upcoming week-long recess would likely delay any action on it until at least the week of February 26, Strickland reports.  If Warner and his colleagues still wish to proceed with their measure, Reid says they'd have to offer it as an amendment to the House resolution.  Warner is trying, albeit in vain, to start the debate on his resolution immediately by vowing to attach it to any piece of legislation that moves through the chamber.  He has even raised the possibility of forgoing the week-long recess next week to vote on various Iraq resolutions. 

    Other notable appearances today: Fed chief Ben Bernanke has day one of his two-day appearance on Capitol Hill, testifying before the Senate Banking Committee.  CNBC's Steve Liesman advises, "There'll be a lot of political questions Bernanke will try not to answer."  And Vice President Cheney gives a rare public speech at the National Association of Manufacturers, a GOP mainstay which is one of the most powerful trade associations in town, and which waded into the battle over Bush's judicial nominees last year.

    And First Read is pleased to announce that MSNBC will broadcast the first-ever Republican presidential primary debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, CA on May 3.  The debate will stream live on Politico.com and MSNBC.com, and questions submitted through Politico.com will be posed by their reporters to the candidates in real time.  The debate takes place one week after NBC's Democratic presidential primary debate in Orangeburg, SC on April 26. 

    The latest USA Today/Gallup poll shows frontrunners Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) widening their leads over their nearest rivals.  Clinton now leads Sen. Barack Obama by 19 points, and Giuliani leads Sen. John McCain by 16 points.  That said, any bounce Obama may have gotten from his Saturday announcement, or for Romney from his announcement yesterday, would not be reflected in this survey. 

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